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Saturday, 21 March 2015

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2015 (March 21st)

The two remaining Quarter Finals of the Masters tournament summed up the disappointment I have felt from the picks I have made at the Indian Wells event over the last ten days.

The first was just a poor pick as Roger Federer dominated Tomas Berdych and wrapped up a convincing win, but the second was seeing Rafael Nadal totally control the match with Milos Raonic but just not have enough to come over the line.

That has been the story for me- a mix of bad picks with bad luck and that is a quick way to have a losing event which is what Indian Wells has become. The last two days can reduce some of the damage if the picks feel right, but I do hope the bit of luck that is needed is on my side.

Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Andy Murray: I honestly thought the layers would have been asking Novak Djokovic to cover at least one more game which would have made this a 'no pick' Semi Final for me, but this number of games is appealing to me.

Novak Djokovic has dominated the head to head with Andy Murray since losing the Wimbledon Final to his rival in 2013 and that includes a win at the Australian Open Final earlier this season.

That match was actually very tightly contested for the first three sets before Murray went away, and the British Number 1 has been playing well enough to challenge Djokovic here. However, he has had to answer questions about the mental side of things having lost so many big matches to Djokovic and I do wonder how Murray can deal with that.

Murray has been playing well this week, but the level of competition moves even higher in this one and Djokovic has loved playing at Indian Wells where he is looking to defend the title he won last season. There will be a lot of long rallies and both will be tested physically, but Djokovic should be a little too good for Murray and I think he has the belief that he will get the better of him and I like him to find a 75, 64 win in this one.

Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Milos Raonic: I tweeted last night that it is going to take a lot for Milos Raonic to recover emotionally from a really tough win over Rafael Nadal in their Quarter Final and I do think Roger Federer will pick him off in this one.

Federer has been playing very well this week and I think it will ask a lot for Raonic to continue playing the points as big as he was yesterday even under pressure situations. Nadal was continuously getting to deuce on the Raonic serve and Federer is playing well enough to get enough balls into play and work his way through to the victory.

If Raonic is serving as well as yesterday, it might be tough for Federer to get over this number of games, but I do think the Canadian will struggle to get up to the level he found yesterday and Federer should take advantage.

Both men like serving first in matches which may play a big part in covering this number of games, but I think Federer will find a break in both sets to earn the victory 64, 64 and I will be looking forward to what could be a very good Final.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 17-22, - 13.30 Units (78 Units Stake, - 17.05% Yield)

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