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Wednesday, 18 March 2015

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2015 (March 18th)

It would be a great day to have a ticket to Indian Wells as the entire Fourth Round of the Masters event being held there is played through Wednesday. That means fans are treated to the likes of Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal being in action plus top ten players like Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic who are trying to bridge the gap to those Grand Slam winners.

At the time of writing this, Roger Federer is yet to play Andreas Seppi in his Third Round match which is going to take place in the evening session on Tuesday.

The first two of the Premier Event Quarter Finals will also be played on a very busy Wednesday and the tennis should be entertaining for all those who are visiting the grounds or viewing on television.

It should have been another good day for the picks, but it came down to Belinda Bencic who seemed to have finally put away Jelena Jankovic when leading by a break in the third set. However, she suffered a similar fate as Madison Keys in missing key chances to go a double break up and allowing Jankovic to fight back with all of her experience and move into the Quarter Final.

That keeps the tournament in the red for the picks, but there are still a few days to go and it has been much better than earlier in the event when the majority of the losing picks were made.

Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: There has been a marked improvement in the performances that Adrian Mannarino has made on the Tour which has seen him come very close to cracking the top 32 in the World Rankings.

That brings with it byes in the Masters tournaments coming up, while also means a Seeding in the Grand Slam events which is all a bonus for Mannarino despite some of his limitations on the court. He is a left handed player which can cause problems, but his serve is far from intimidating and he will have to work hard to keep Andy Murray at bay in this one.

Andy Murray has been playing well this week, but he is still capable of throwing in a stinker of a performance and anything less than his best could see the Frenchman pull the upset. However, if Murray brings his form in from earlier in the week, he will likely be able to pull and push Mannarino around the court and dominate much of the match.

The first set will likely be very tight, but Murray will believe he can outlast Mannarino physically in a 64, 62 win.

Tomas Berdych - 5.5 games v Lukas Rosol: Lukas Rosol has the kind of game that can prove very troublesome if he is at the top of his game, but there might be a few nerves going up against his compatriot Tomas Berdych. The latter will also know all about what Rosol brings to the court and the form Berdych has been displaying suggests he will be too good in this one.

Both men rely on a big first serve to dominate proceedings, but Berdych is the better player at getting balls back in play and is much more consistent off the ground.

There will be times Rosol will hit winners for fun as he is capable of that kind of tennis, but it will take a lot of that to cause a surprise and I think the best Rosol can hope for is making this competitive.

However, his belief can be taken away and Rosol is then capable of dropping serve a couple of times and this looks like another 64, 62 win for Berdych in the making.

Milos Raonic - 3.5 games v Tommy Robredo: Milos Raonic was a very impressive winner over Alexandr Dolgopolov, but it was Tommy Robredo who made the headlines with a three set win over Grigor Dimitrov.

The Spaniard should like the conditions in Indian Wells with the ability to get involved in some long rallies, but it might not be the case against the big-serving Raonic. The Canadian will look to dominate behind serve and Robredo's serve isn't one that will see him winning a lot of cheap points.

Scoreboard pressure should play a part and I think Raonic will be the player creating most of the chances in this one as Robredo feels the fact that one break could easily cost him a set. I do like the battling displays that Robredo will bring to a court, but it might not be enough in this one and Raonic can come through with a 63, 75 kind of win.

Bernard Tomic - 3.5 games v Thanasi Kokkinakis: Australian men's tennis must be very excited about the three young prospects they have on their hands and two of those will meet in this Fourth Round match at Indian Wells for a place in the Masters Quarter Final.

I do think the older and more experienced Bernard Tomic is playing well enough to have the edge in the match although both players will know each other very well in both strength and weakness department. However, Tomic might also have the edge when it comes to the physical aspect after Thanasi Kokkinakis had to dig deep into a third set to see off Juan Monaco in the last Round.

Both players had impressive wins for Australia in the Davis Cup recently and while Kokkinakis looks the player with the higher ceiling to reach, I think Tomic could have the slight edge physically and mentally in this one having won a match between the two earlier this season too.

Tomic will have to serve well to keep the pressure on Kokkinakis and I think he comes through after a very tight first set with a 76, 63 win.

Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Jack Sock: All credit to Jack Sock for battling through another tough match at Indian Wells on his comeback to the Tour, but he is going to have to up his game at least one, perhaps two levels, if he is going to beat Roger Federer.

Indian Wells has been one of the favoured tournaments that Federer has played in his career as a four time previous winner here, plus he reached the Final last season. He earned some revenge in the last Round by beating Andreas Seppi fairly comfortably and I expect Federer to keep Sock under pressure through his aggression and ability to attack the net.

Jack Sock has gone to the serve-volley tactics himself, but it was a long lay off from the Tour and he has to be feeling the tennis he has played. The backhand is a particularly weakness and I expect Federer to exploit both the mental and physical exploits that Sock has had to put into this tournament already.

Sock should be inspired enough to keep this competitive for a while, but a 63, 63 win for Federer looks on the cards.

Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: This pick is very simply down to the fact that Carla Suarez Navarro has a lot of tennis under her legs with consecutive tough wins to move into this Quarter Final. She hasn't had the fortune of being in the half of the draw that would get a rest day today and I think Suarez Navarro is going to forced into some long rallies that will end up playing right into the hands of Simona Halep.

While Suarez Navarro have been battling through the Rounds, Simona Halep had a much more comfortable Fourth Round win and hasn't had to spend as long on the court as her opponent.

It hasn't been a headline grabbing season for Halep to this point, but she did win the title in Dubai and she is confident.

It won't be easy for Halep but she does have the edge from the physical aspect and is generally a better player than Suarez Navarro and I expect her to come through 64, 63.

Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Timea Bacsinszky: In the form that Timea Bacsinszky has been producing on the court, this could be a very good match as she takes on the favourite for the Indian Wells title in Serena Williams to open the evening session.

Bacsinszky has won back to back titles and has battled through to this Quarter Final thanks to her new found belief on the court. That has to be a big reason that she has come from a set down in each of her three wins in the event so far, although she has spent a lot of time on a court and physically it has to be tough.

Serena Williams won't make it any easier for Bacsinszky and I think the World Number 1 is playing with a mission to win the Indian Wells title after ending her boycott of the event. She has been in good nick so far and has looked very good in dismissing her last two opponents.

The power she has and the strong mindset should keep Williams focused in this tough Quarter Final and I do think physically she will be much stronger than Bacsinszky. The Swiss player has some impressive wins under her belt over the last month, but Serena Williams is a step above the players she has mainly beaten and I think the American wears her down in a 75, 62 win.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update12-16, - 11.10 Units (56 Units Staked, - 19.82% Yield)

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