Weekend Football Picks 2014 (March 15-16)

This looks like a very good weekend for football fans in the Premier League with plenty of big games that will have real effects at the top and bottom of the League table. We will begin to get an idea as to which teams won't have enough to survive and which teams will be fighting for a top four berth over the next couple of months.

Super Sunday is also one of the better ones of the season as we see the biggest game in English football followed by the North London derby and both of those games will have a big impact on the top four.


It is a pivotal time of the season now we are firmly in the grips of March and the next two weeks will really open things up at both ends of the table. Hopefully the picks can remain in a good place too after a decent start to the month and continue with the picks made for this weekend.


Hull City v Manchester City Pick: There are games against the likes of Manchester United and Arsenal to come later this month, but there is also a feeling that this game is all important for Manchester City as they look to find a way to reel Chelsea back in.

I know they have three games in hand, but everyone would rather have the points on the board and Chelsea have that nice 9 point cushion over the team that most still believe will be their closest contenders for the Premier League title. With the Blues having a tough game at Villa Park on Saturday afternoon, Manchester City will look to up the ante by winning this game and putting the ball back in the Chelsea court.

As well as Hull City have played at home, they have begun to show vulnerabilities and have particularly struggled against the teams in the top half of the table. Aside from the win over Liverpool, Hull have seen Manchester United, Southampton, Chelsea and Newcastle United collect three points from this stadium over the last few games.

The win in the FA Cup would have given the team confidence, and Manchester City did have the tough exertion of playing Barcelona on Wednesday while the home team has had a week to prepare for the game. That is the biggest worry for Manchester City, but I think the squad proved they are capable of playing the best teams despite the defeat in the Nou Camp and I expect them to earn the three points here.

Chelsea and Newcastle United won easily enough here, and I believe Manchester City will win this one by a couple of goals too.


Fulham v Newcastle United Pick: It has been an awful season for Fulham in terms of results, but as the only ground in the Premier League with a neutral section, I am sure those fans in those seats won't have been lacking for entertainment.

Defensive problems have meant there have been plenty of goals to enjoy at Craven Cottage and that has also seen 10 of their last 11 Premier League games here see at least three goals scored.

It is hard to ignore the statistics- Fulham have conceded at least three goals in 5 of their last 6 games at Craven Cottage and have twice conceded four goals in that stretch of games. Most of those have come against top sides, but Sunderland and Southampton have also hit at least three goals and neither of those would be considered hugely free-scoring teams.

Loic Remy is not set to be in the squad for Newcastle United which will take away some of their goalscoring powers, especially if Hatem Ben Arfa also misses out. However, Fulham defend so poorly at times that Newcastle will still likely have the chances to score the goals to win the game.

Newcastle United have also scored three at West Ham United and four at Hull City so can punish teams when they get on a roll and all the stats are pointing to this one going over 2.5 goals.

Recent history also points to goals with the last two games at Craven Cottage going over the total and that is what I'll be backing for this game.


Southampton v Norwich City Pick: The weather has been pretty good for this time of the year in the United Kingdom and that should allow the likes of Southampton to play their football without any adverse conditions.

The biggest problem for the home team may be their poor recent form, although they did find a way to beat Crystal Palace in their most recent League game. Southampton have not been so good at St Mary's though as they have failed to win their last 3 home games in the Premier League, although it has to be said that only the game against Stoke City would have been a disappointing failure.

Southampton will likely be aided by a Norwich City team that have conceded at least two goals in each of their last five away games in all competitions, and I think the home team may be tough to stop now that they have snapped a run of losses with a win last weekend.

I hate picking teams like the Saints, who can be wasteful at times in front of goal, to win matches by a couple of goals, but they play a brand of football that should offer up chances to score goals. As Norwich are conceding as many as they have been, that should give Southampton the opportunity to become the latest side to beat the Canaries by at least two goals at home.


Aston Villa v Chelsea Pick: I think this is going to be a very big game for Chelsea if they are to win the Premier League as it is these games where you are expected to win where the three points are vital. Villa Park has not been a venue that Jose Mourinho has experienced too much success and it all points to the potential for this banana skin to slip up the away side.

Add in the fact that there is a huge Champions League game on deck and Chelsea at short odds to win away from home begins to look very unappealing.

My problem is that Aston Villa have struggled at home and concede plenty of goals in front of their own fans and the likes of Eden Hazard, Oscar and an in-form Samuel Eto'o will be able to cause some problems when they are going forward.

Prior to the win over Norwich City, Aston Villa had conceded at least two home goals in 3 games in a row. Also, since losing 0-1 to Liverpool here back in August, Aston Villa have conceded at least two goals to Manchester City, Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur, Everton, Manchester United and Arsenal so I am expecting Chelsea to find the goals in this game and prefer backing them to do that than I do in backing them to win the game at short odds.

The Champions League game means Chelsea are unlikely to keep turning the screw if they go ahead, but Jose Mourinho will also be aware of how the side dropped two points at West Brom when trying to sit on a one goal lead. I am going to back Chelsea to score either two or three goals at odds against to match the other top half teams in the Premier League and they will need to do that if they are to win the game.


Manchester United v Liverpool Pick: Even through all the years of dominance that Manchester United had in the Premier League when the likes of Arsenal, Newcastle United and Blackburn Rovers were the leading contenders challenging for the title, the games against Liverpool were still the first ones that fans would have looked for on the calendar.

That is unlikely to ever change with the rivalry between the two most successful clubs in England, but it is the first time in a long time that Liverpool will be going to Old Trafford with some expectation they can get a big result.

It would be the result that likely sees Manchester United miss out on a top four place if Liverpool were to win the game and I don't think Brendan Rodgers will put the handbrake on a team that has scored plenty of goals in their recent League games. It hasn't mattered to Liverpool if they have played at Anfield or not as the front two have caused havoc and they showed how committed they are to getting forward at White Hart Lane, the Etihad Stadium, Stamford Bridge and the Emirates Stadium over the last few months.

With the vulnerability in the Manchester United defence and the susceptibility to pace, Liverpool will certainly feel they are coming to Old Trafford with the chance to score goals.

On the other hand, Liverpool have looked a little shaky at the back themselves and they have kept only three clean sheets away from home all season. Stoke City and Fulham scored five goals between them in recent games they hosted Liverpool and I do think Manchester United will be able to create some chances.

David Moyes has to be fearless in the game as the onus will be on Manchester United to attack and that may leave them a little short at the back when Liverpool counter-attack. It is going to be very hard for United to find the balance they need in this game to see off Liverpool and they have to have more ideas in the final third if they are to win the game.

I might be a little pessimistic, but Liverpool look a dangerous side and similar performances they had in defeats at Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal (in the FA Cup) would give them a great chance of winning here. However, Manchester United should raise their game for a big rival visiting Old Trafford and they did in beating Arsenal at Old Trafford earlier in the season.

Of all the options, I can't see this game lacking for goals with both sides expecting to go forward and at least three goals looks to be the soundest option for a game where both teams will feel they can win.


Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal Pick: The second game on 'Super Sunday' is expected to be another decent game for the neutrals, especially if Tottenham Hotspur continue making the defensive mistakes that produce goal-scoring chances as they have in their last two games.

Tottenham have reminded me of Manchester United at times over the last few weeks as they look a side that can quickly drop their heads if they fall behind in a game, while also being a little predictable with the way they try and attack teams.

There is some pace in the side that should cause Arsenal a few problems, but the Gunners have been defensively sound for much of the season even if that hasn't shown up so much in their most recent away games in the Premier League.

That should give Spurs hope that they can get amongst the goals in this game, but defensively they have been so generous that it is hard to imagine Arsenal not getting on the scoreboard themselves, even if they are missing some key attacking pieces. If Arsenal had the likes of Mesut Ozil, Theo Walcott and Aaron Ramsey available for selection, I would expect them to score enough goals to win this game, but those being out puts some doubt in my mind.

Goals have generally not been a problem in the North London derby when it is played at White Hart Lane and I think we could see a couple of mistakes that lead to the net bustling in this game too. At odds against, which is a surprise to me, I like the chance of at least three goals being scored.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fulham-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
Southampton - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea Goal Bands: 2-3 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)

March Update: 10-9, + 3.18 Units (34 Units Staked, + 9.35% Yield)

February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 111-131-3, - 4.03 Units (389 Units Staked, - 1.04% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)