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Thursday, 6 March 2014

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2014 (March 6th)

The Indian Wells Masters will get under way on Thursday as the WTA Premier Event concludes the First Round matches as they got their tournament going on Wednesday.

I have updated the outright picks for the week with the ATP tournament now covered and they can be read here.

I only had one pick from the matches that were played on Wednesday and that was a winner to get the tournament off to a good start which will hopefully be backed up going forward.

Denis Istomin - 1.5 games v Radek Stepanek: This is a tough First Round match for both players and Denis Istomin can be one of the more up and down players on the court, but I do think he can win and set up a Second Round match against Rafael Nadal.

One thing that does bother me is that Istomin has already signed up to play in the Challenger tournament in Irving next week, although I still believe he will be fully motivated for this First Round match knowing he is likely to be beaten by Nadal on Saturday.

Istomin is also playing an awkward player in Radek Stepanek that made life tough for Roger Federer at times in Dubai. He has a style of play that can get under an opponent's skin and that is another factor that could come into play in tis match.

However, I think Istomin serves a little better and can play at a higher level than the veteran these days and I like him to come through 76, 64.

Jeremy Chardy - 3.5 games v Rhyne Williams: I actually think there is some potential in the Rhyne Williams game after seeing him play a few times, but I still believe Jeremy Chardy is going to be a little too consistent for him in this First Round match.

That is the key to Chardy's success in that he doesn't really fluctuate between levels too much and that usually is good enough to see off opponents that he is expected to beat.

I would expect more from the Frenchman on the hard courts than he has produced in the last couple of years, but this opponent should be someone he is able to deal with.

Williams has a decent serve and a decent forehand, but he is inconsistent and will offer up some chances for Chardy to break serve and he is still trying to find his feet at the main Tour level. He did play well in Delray Beach a couple of weeks ago, but I think Williams is beaten 75, 64 in this match.

Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 games v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: Another player that has signed up to the Challenger tournament at Irving next week is Daniel Gimeno-Traver and he could be sent on his way fairly quickly as he faces a tough First Round match against Santiago Giraldo.

Giraldo has dominated their head to head as he brings in a 5-1 lead, while there is no doubt that Gimeno-Traver is much more comfortable on the clay courts than he is on the hard courts.

The slower courts at Indian Wells may give Gimeno-Traver a little more confidence he can spring the surprise, while Giraldo hasn't been in great form himself. The Colombian was surprised in the First Round here last season, but he has won all 3 previous matches against Gimeno-Traver on the hard courts and I just think there will be a little too much power from Giraldo's side of the court that leads to a 63, 64 win.

Julia Goerges - 2.5 games v Jana Cepelova: The last two years have been pretty disappointing for Julia Goerges after a strong 2011 suggested she could perhaps have a real impact at the top of the women's game.

Unfortunately, the German has failed to develop her game and has relied on hitting the ball harder rather than looking to find a way to construct points and that has led to inconsistent results.

There have been signs of recovery this season, but not enough to see Goerges moving up the Rankings, although I do fancy her to win this First Round match against Jana Cepelova.

The youngster has beaten Sam Stosur this year and pushed players like Kaia Kanepi and Yanina Wickmayer, but Cepelova also loses a lot of sets with 61/62 scores and that is the reason I believe Goerges will cover as well as win the match. It could easily go three sets with the inconsistent displays Goerges provides, but I like the German to win 62, 46, 64.

Camila Giorgi - 1.5 games v Andrea Petkovic: One of the up and coming players on the WTA Tour that could have a bright future is Camila Giorgi who at 22 years old could be in line for a big year this season.

She dominated Andrea Petkovic when they met in Dubai and will also have the added confidence of comfortably coming through the two qualifiers here at Indian Wells. The Italian has also shown some good form to open 2014 and I feel she is just geared up to have a strong season.

It won't be easy to beat Petkovic again even if injuries may have slowed down the German over the last couple of years since her huge 2011 season.

Petkovic has had a tough start to the season, but she is still capable of causing problems so Giorgi will have to be on her game to earn the victory. If she can dominated on Petkovic's serve even half as well as she did in Dubai, I do think Giorgi will come through with a 63, 46, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Denis Istomin - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Camila Giorgi - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 1-0, + 2 Units (2 Units Staked, + 100% Yield)

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