Tennis Picks (February 7th)

The big news yesterday was clearly the return of Rafael Nadal to play his first Singles match since Wimbledon last year and it might have been slightly concerning for the Spaniard when he lost 10 of the first 11 points played and found himself 0-2, 0-30 down.

That was as bad as it got for Nadal as I am guessing nervousness took hold of him for a while to open that match, understandably of course, but he was commanding after that start.

It doesn't say much to be honest as he is playing in a tournament where I believe one, maybe two, players would have been seeded at a Grand Slam event. Even the exit of Juan Monaco has made it a lot easier for Nadal and I wouldn't be surprised if he takes the title home, although I won't be ready to proclaim the Spaniard capable of winning a big event until I see him perform at Indian Wells and Miami next month.


Michael Llodra v Janko Tipsarevic: Michael Llodra continues to play his best tennis on the fast indoor hard courts and I think he may just surprise the Number 2 seeded Janko Tipsarevic who is coming off a heel injury.

That forced Tipsarevic to retire at the Australian Open and also caused him to miss Serbia's Davis Cup tie against Belgium, so there is no real telling how comfortable he is feeling.

Llodra does save his best tennis for his home crowd at these smaller events and will look back at beating Tipsarevic at the indoor hard court event held in Marseille. With the conditions being similar, I think a small interest in him picking up the win is warranted.


Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 games v Somdev Devvarman: There is no doubt that the best of Jurgen Melzer is behind the Austrian these days, but he remains a very dangerous player on the indoor hard courts and that should be enough to see off the Somdev Devvarman threat.

Melzer reached the Quarter Final at this event last season and also won a title on the indoor hard courts of Memphis while reaching the Semi Final in Valencia. In what was an otherwise disappointing season, Melzer has shown the last remnants of his game are best suited to these quicker surfaces.

He is also facing a player that has never really produced deep runs on the indoor hard courts and one that is still trying to feel his way back onto the Tour having missed the first six months of last season. Devvarman doesn't have much match practice under his belt just yet and I think Melzer will be too good for him when this one is over.


MY PICKS: Michael Llodra @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 2-2, + 0.12 Units (6 Units Staked, + 0.02% Yield)