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Thursday, 14 February 2013

Tennis Picks (February 14th)

The picks from the tennis tournaments will come out in staggered periods simply because of the time zone differences this week.

It was a bit of a tough time over the last 36 hours as Fernando Verdasco went out to destroy one of the outright picks I made this week. The other factor was Ivo Karlovic having 2 match points in the final tie-break before losing 4 points in a row to lose the match, meaning yesterday was another day when the thread suffered a loss.

Hopefully today will prove to be a stronger day.

Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Richard Gasquet has moved on to a 15-1 record to open 2013 and he has two tournament wins to his name, but I think he has played a lot of tennis in quick succession and could be found out by Marcos Baghdatis.

The only reason I am recommending taking the games in this one is because I don't fully trust Baghdatis to complete the job in full as he has already had some bad defeats this season and is not the player that reached the Australian Open Final.

However, Baghdatis does have a 2-0 head to head record against Gasquet, and the latter had to play a lot of three set matches last week to progress to the win in Montpellier and I do think Baghdatis is capable of winning a set and that could give him a good chance of covering the spread even if he doesn't win the match.

Gasquet does have 7 wins in a row so I don't have too many worries about his confidence, but a lot of tennis in a short amount of time does catch up with players and that could be the case here.

Juan Monaco - 3.5 games v Simone Bolelli: Juan Monaco suffered a bad loss in Vina Del Mar last week to Guillermo Rufin, but I think he can bounce back and pull out a victory in this one against his Italian opponent Simone Bolelli.

Bolelli surprised Tommy Robredo in the last Round, but he hasn't had too much success on the main ATP circuit over the last couple of seasons and he is playing an opponent in Juan Monaco who should be a little too consistent overall in this one.

It also has to be remembered that Monaco had a very effective season on the clay courts last season and I am going to suggest last week was just a blip and he will come out with a much more positive match this time.

I expect Monaco to win this match with a break in each set, perhaps 7-5, 6-3.

MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 Games @ 1.97 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-6, - 5.30 Units (17 Units Staked, - 31.28% Yield)

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