Some of those pieces of luck are very simple- it could mean winning the toss of the coin and having your player serve first in a set or reaching a tie-break in a situation where they are serving second rather than first.
These are particularly important when dealing with the handicaps so that little bit of luck needs to fall for you immediately.
On other occasions, the pick isn't necessarily 'bad' (which is how I describe 99% of my picks that are unsuccessful), but there is just a stunning lack of luck that affects everything.
That was the situation in the Carla Suarez Navarro match yesterday against Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez... I have very rarely made a pick and watched as almost EVERY game sees the player I am supporting lose by the merest of margins and thus killing any chance of the pick getting anywhere.
Let's face facts here- Suarez Navarro was 0/9 on break points by the time the third game of the second set was completed and every game had averaged over 7 points per game being competed highlighting how small the margins were... However, Suarez Navarro lost 8 of the 10 games and that I will describe as a 'fluke' and not something that should be left in the 'bad pick' folder.
My mood was not improved by Kevin Anderson's inability to hold serve (remember, this is a fella that has a huge serve),. but he looked a little lost almost immediately in the match, something that is a real surprise considering he hasn't had to do as much travelling recently as his opponent Mikhail Youzhny.
It may simply have been a bad day in the office, but his body language in the first set was disappointing, although he came close to turning things around when reaching the tie-break in the second set.
Ironically, it was the player I described as a 'head case' that saved the day from being a total nightmare as we continue into the Second Round at these two Premier Events in Canada this week.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Marcos Baghdatis: This looks like being a fascinating match between two players that have been playing some good tennis recently, and I am a little surprised that it has been put on the outer courts which are not going to be televised.
Marin Cilic has had a good grass court season and threw in a couple of solid performances in clay court events between Wimbledon and the London Olympics- he was probably a little disappointed to have gone out early in the Olympic tournament, but it has been a good run of form after an injury-hit start to the season.
His opponent Marcos Baghdatis has already won a match here in Canada so will be prepared for the conditions, but he is just 7-8 in the last twelve months on the hard courts of North America before this tournament began and he is playing against someone that has been using his return game very effectively.
The match will likely come down to which of these two players serves better as both can struggle for consistency in that aspect of their game- however, I feel Cilic is more likely to get a higher percentage of first serves in play and that could give him the chance to play more first-strike tennis than Baghdatis.
They have split 4 matches previously and they are 1-1 on the hard courts. However, this is their first match since 2010 and I think Cilic has improved while Baghdatis is perhaps a little deteriorated from that point so I will take the Croatian in this one.
Fabio Fognini + 4.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: Fabio Fognini is one of the most inconsistent players on the Tour, but he has been improving that aspect of his game and I am going to take the games in this one and hope he can at least make this match competitive against Philipp Kohlschreiber.
The German has actually not played any kind of tennis for a couple of weeks as he suffered a hamstring injury in a tournament in Austria and that could give Fognini the edge, especially considering he has won through the qualifiers and already won another Round here in Toronto.
Kohlschreiber did beat Fognini last month on the clay courts in straight sets, but the fact that he has a slight injury concern and the Italian is familiar with these conditions means this could be a large number of games to cover.
Hopefully 'good' Fabio comes out to play today.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: This is a bit of a risk as I didn't really want to back any players that went deep in the Olympic tournament last week, but I think the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga have to look at this Masters Event as a real chance to pick up a big title, especially with Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal missing and question marks surrounding Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray.
Tsonga has had a few more days of rest as he was given a bye into the Second Round here, but he would have only arrived in Canada in the last couple of days having reached the Men's Doubles Final last Saturday.
The move from grass to hard courts is a concern, but he may have a bit of joy playing Jeremy Chardy, particularly if the latter starts as he did against Donald Young in the First Round when he was struggling to hold serve and offering up many chances.
A lot of this pick will depend on Tsonga serves first and that is something he usually picks, but I also feel that Chardy is capable of dropping serve a couple of times in a set so I will play it.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini + 4.5 games @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games @ 2.04 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: - 2.48 Units (8 Units Staked)
It may simply have been a bad day in the office, but his body language in the first set was disappointing, although he came close to turning things around when reaching the tie-break in the second set.
Ironically, it was the player I described as a 'head case' that saved the day from being a total nightmare as we continue into the Second Round at these two Premier Events in Canada this week.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Marcos Baghdatis: This looks like being a fascinating match between two players that have been playing some good tennis recently, and I am a little surprised that it has been put on the outer courts which are not going to be televised.
Marin Cilic has had a good grass court season and threw in a couple of solid performances in clay court events between Wimbledon and the London Olympics- he was probably a little disappointed to have gone out early in the Olympic tournament, but it has been a good run of form after an injury-hit start to the season.
His opponent Marcos Baghdatis has already won a match here in Canada so will be prepared for the conditions, but he is just 7-8 in the last twelve months on the hard courts of North America before this tournament began and he is playing against someone that has been using his return game very effectively.
The match will likely come down to which of these two players serves better as both can struggle for consistency in that aspect of their game- however, I feel Cilic is more likely to get a higher percentage of first serves in play and that could give him the chance to play more first-strike tennis than Baghdatis.
They have split 4 matches previously and they are 1-1 on the hard courts. However, this is their first match since 2010 and I think Cilic has improved while Baghdatis is perhaps a little deteriorated from that point so I will take the Croatian in this one.
Fabio Fognini + 4.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: Fabio Fognini is one of the most inconsistent players on the Tour, but he has been improving that aspect of his game and I am going to take the games in this one and hope he can at least make this match competitive against Philipp Kohlschreiber.
The German has actually not played any kind of tennis for a couple of weeks as he suffered a hamstring injury in a tournament in Austria and that could give Fognini the edge, especially considering he has won through the qualifiers and already won another Round here in Toronto.
Kohlschreiber did beat Fognini last month on the clay courts in straight sets, but the fact that he has a slight injury concern and the Italian is familiar with these conditions means this could be a large number of games to cover.
Hopefully 'good' Fabio comes out to play today.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: This is a bit of a risk as I didn't really want to back any players that went deep in the Olympic tournament last week, but I think the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga have to look at this Masters Event as a real chance to pick up a big title, especially with Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal missing and question marks surrounding Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray.
Tsonga has had a few more days of rest as he was given a bye into the Second Round here, but he would have only arrived in Canada in the last couple of days having reached the Men's Doubles Final last Saturday.
The move from grass to hard courts is a concern, but he may have a bit of joy playing Jeremy Chardy, particularly if the latter starts as he did against Donald Young in the First Round when he was struggling to hold serve and offering up many chances.
A lot of this pick will depend on Tsonga serves first and that is something he usually picks, but I also feel that Chardy is capable of dropping serve a couple of times in a set so I will play it.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini + 4.5 games @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games @ 2.04 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: - 2.48 Units (8 Units Staked)
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