Tennis Picks August 16th (Cincinnati)

'Speaking of Cincinnati, Rafael Nadal has revealed that he will not be taking part at the tournament despite Toni Nadal saying he did expect his nephew to be back in action at the second Masters of the North American hard court swing.

His absence does make his participation in the US Open uncertain and, further to that, the rest of the season might now see Nadal take a leave of absence in a bid to get ready for the 2013 season.

It also, once again, raises real questions about the Spaniard's knees and whether he has much time left at the top of the Men's game with his grinding out style meaning he is working much harder on his body than someone like Roger Federer.'

The above is what I wrote about Rafael Nadal last week when he made it clear that he was not going to play in Cincinnati this week, despite what Toni Nadal had been telling the press, and it was confirmed yesterday that the Spaniard will miss the US Open.

Toni Nadal has said there are no plans to shut down for the season and he expects his nephew to be a part of the Spanish Davis Cup team that takes on the United States in the Semi Final.

Personally, I wouldn't see the point of Nadal trying to come back this season now that the final Grand Slam is one that he will miss- I would much rather see him take six months to get his knees back in shape as this sounds like a deeper problem than his camp are willing to admit.

This has always been the big concern with Nadal's playing style- the toll it was taking on his body meant it was always an issue that could lead to an earlier retirement from the sport and the lingering nature of this current problem has to worry all of his supporters.

Do I think Nadal can come back? Yes of course, but there is a nagging feeling at the back of my mind that this is a much more serious issue than anyone in his camp is letting on, especially with the constant setback to when he is due back on court, and I would now be very surprised if we see him in action again this year.

The Australian Open would then be probably too soon for Nadal to have a chance of winning it (if he took off 6 months to get in shape), but he would be able to find peak form ahead of the French Open in 2013, a tournament he has dominated, and so he can come back from this.

Nadal's likely to fall down the Rankings if he took time off, but not so far as to drop out of the top 10, so he would get a chance to work his way into draws and it might just be the best thing for his long-term aims.


Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: Andy Murray was in very good form when knocking off Sam Querrey yesterday and he declared he is fully fit after pulling out of Toronto with a knee complaint.

On current form, Murray is probably playing the best tennis on the ATP Tour and he has the returning game to give Jeremy Chardy plenty of fits in this one.

The conditions have been said to be a little quick in Cincinnati this week, but Murray handled the Querrey serve very well and I don't think Chardy is as potent with his serve, particularly not his second serve.

With the pressure of having to hit an extra ball on Chardy, I expect the Frenchman will make mistakes today and that should lead to chances for Murray to find a couple of breaks in a set that should set the cover in motion.

Murray beat Chardy here in Cincinnati a couple of years ago in three sets, although it was easier than that would suggest. I would look for a 6-2, 6-4 win for Murray here this year.


Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Bernard Tomic: Bernard Tomic has had an under-whelming year after his start at the Australian Open and he is now ranked down at Number 49 in the World. He had lost 8 of his last 9 matches before winning 2 matches here in Cincinnati, but he will really need to up his level against Roger Federer if he is to continue the positive run.

Federer missed Toronto last week, but he looked very solid in beating Alex Bogomolov yesterday for the loss of just 5 games and that time off may just have reinvigorated him as he looks to hold on to his World Number 1 Ranking ahead of the US Open.

The Swiss man crushed Tomic in his home tournament in Australia earlier this year and he has the ability to grab a couple of breaks of serve as Tomic's second serve is one of the weaker shots in his arsenal.

The quicker conditions will also help Federer as he will be able to dictate points behind his forehand and I think he will likely grab a 6-3, 6-3 win.


Venus Williams - 3.5 games v Sara Errani: Venus Williams has been showing a bit of life in her form in the last two tournaments she has competed in and I will look for her to continue that when she meets Sara Errani in this Third Round match.

Williams reached the Third Round at the Olympics and was only beaten in two tie-breakers against Angelique Kerber, but she had crushed Errani for the loss of 3 games in the First Round there.

With the added speed these courts seem to have been providing this week, I think Venus Williams will be able to win enough cheap points in her service game, while Errani will have to work that much harder for her points, and that can take it's toll over the course of a match.

I will hope Venus starts much brighter than she did in her win over Chanelle Scheepers yesterday and, if she can, I will look for a straight sets win.


MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 3.5 games @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-5, - 6.90 Units (11 Units Staked)