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Saturday, 14 January 2012

NFL Divisional Round Play Offs (January 14-15)

I will post up all the plays from the Divisional Round of games taking place this week- personally I think we are going to see a lot of good games in this Round.

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12976-Denver-Broncos-at-New-England-Patriots.htm)

New Orleans @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: I like the San Francisco 49ers to cover the spread at the very least tonight for the following reasons:

First, the New Orleans Saints are not the same team when you take them out of the Superdome and get them dealing with the elements outside.

Second, San Francisco will be looking for revenge after New Orleans destroyed them with blitzes in a pre-season game, something they have clearly not forgotten about.

Third, how about this for a statistic? Teams that have scored 40 points or more are just 3-18 against the spread in their next game.

The key for San Francisco will be trying to finish drives with TDs rather than FGs and also trying to create pressure on Drew Brees, just like St Louis did in the biggest surprise of the season as far as I am concerned.

I think the Saints can be got at Defensively, so I think the 49ers will keep this game close enough to cover, if not win outright.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12983-Houston-Texans-at-Baltimore-Ravens.htm)

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers Pick: This is easily the game of the weekend in my humble opinion and I like the Giants, after much consideration, to cover the spread in a shoot-out for the following reasons:

First, they are full of confidence right now after pushing the Packers all the way at home and they are playing with a bit of swagger having been in Play Off mode for the past two weeks (beating Dallas in Week 17 was essentially a Play Off game as the loser went home).

Second, the Giants have a front 4 that could at least pressure Aaron Rodgers and cause some problems for them, even if the Secondary can give up the big play.

Third, the Packers Defense is definitely susceptible to the big play and being passed on and I cannot see how they will stop Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz consistently enough to keep the Giants from scoring.

Fourth, the road team is 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 meetings between the teams.

Fifth, Play Off teams are just 12-20 against the spread when coming in off a bye week (New England and San Francisco have that at 2-0 following their wins yesterday).

I am looking forward to seeing a high scoring game with the team that has the ball last being the one to win the game... I can't really see the Packers losing at home, but to give the Giants more than a TD looks too generous to me (famous last words?)

MY PICKS: Denver Broncos + 14 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New York Giants + 8 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

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