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Thursday, 26 January 2012

Australian Open Day 12 Pick- Djokovic v Murray

Yesterday we picked all 3 underdogs to win their matches and we had a good day as two of those managed to get through.

I was stunned with the lack of respect that was given to Rafael Nadal and his chances of winning his match with Federer, not just by the layers but by the so called 'experts'... I was not concerned at all that he would Federer all the way in the match as he has the game plan that is tough for the Swiss player to deal with and we saw that again yesterday.

The one handed backhand used by Federer just does not do enough damage on a consistent basis, while Rafael Nadal was too quick and physically strong as he began to grind Federer down.

In the Women's draw, I am very happy to see the Final between Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova as both are deserving to be in this position and should offer up plenty of entertainment for the crowd.

Even better was the fact that the winner of this Grand Slam will be taking over as the World Number 1 in the Women's game and that should be a fascinating encounter. I am thinking of doing a live blog covering that Final and, IF I enjoy it, I might do the same for the Men's Final on Sunday.

Novak Djokovic win 3-1 sets vs Andy Murray: I have been thinking about this match for much of the day today and I have finally decided that I am going to have a small interest on the World Number 1 going through to his third consecutive Grand Slam Final against Rafael Nadal with a 4 set win.

Andy Murray should feel confident that he can spring a surprise, and I think he will push Djokovic here, but I still think his serve needs some work to find the consistency of getting up to 65% of first serves in play... The second serve remains a liability that can be exposed, especially by the very best players in the World like Djokovic.

I expect Murray's link up with Ivan Lendl will work, but it is still early in their relationship and I have a feeling Murray could resort to his former tactics IF he falls behind in this match... Those tactics have not really helped him in the past in best of 5 set matches in the latter stages of tournaments and I have a feeling he will fall short here.

There were some doubts about the fitness of Djokovic as he was beginning to really struggle against David Ferrer in the last Round, but he looked very strong in the third set so I don't think there are going to be too many physical issues for him to overcome here.

I think the World Number 1 will be a little too consistent and aggressive for Murray here and will pull away after splitting the first two sets. Murray was beaten in 4 sets in his last two Grand Slam losses, both to Rafael Nadal, and I think he can take a set from previous experiences of playing Djokovic.

However, I think the Serbian will get through 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2.

MY PICK: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)

Australian Update: 20-14, + 15.76 Units

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