The Quarter Final line up at the US Open will be put together by the end of Day 8 at the tournament and it has to be said that this event looks very open with question marks about anyone you really fancy to win the final Grand Slam of the season in either the men's or women's events.
The tournament has also been a difficult one to read when it comes to the Tennis Picks, but things have turned into a positive going into the second half of the US Open. Hopefully that momentum continues through the remaining Fourth Round matches and put this tournament into a position to end with some strong results.
Rafael Nadal win 3-1 v Alexandr Dolgopolov: There are plenty of negative stories around Alexandr Dolgopolov at the moment with some real questions as to whether he has been involved in 'match fixing' both in recent weeks and with previous incidences also beginning to take more scrutiny. There has been an angry response from Dolgopolov with the media, despite not really saying anything to ease those allegations, but the Ukrainian is trying his best to change the headlines with his play on the court.
He has been in fine form at the US Open on his run through to the Fourth Round, but Dolgopolov now faces the big challenge of facing Rafael Nadal, the favourite to win the men's tournament. The way Dolgopolov played in dismissing Tomas Berdych is clearly the best performance he has produced and the decision making has been much better than normal.
The flashy game and being able to hit some big groundstrokes should give Dolgopolov some chance against Nadal who has been a little inconsistent in his own matches. Slow starts have become a real concern for Nadal, although it has to be said that he was unfortunate to find himself a set down to Leonardo Mayer in the Third Round.
Nadal has been able to go through the gears in the first three Rounds after disappointing opening sets and come through relatively comfortably. However he has dropped the first set in two matches in a row which has to be taken into consideration despite a dominant record against Dolgopolov.
I do think the way Nadal has seen players being able to hit through him in New York City will be an issue unless a drastic improvement is made. However he has shown plenty of grit to turn matches around when needing to work out some problems and I can see this match going in a similar way.
I would not be surprised if Dolgopolov is able to play his brand of tennis effectively enough to take a set in this one and I did consider the total games being surpassed. However this is the toughest test Dolgopolov has had this week and I do think Nadal is going to be too strong by the end of the two hours they spend on the court. The Spaniard has only dropped sets to Dolgopolov in the two matches he has lost to him, but this time I will have a small interest in Nadal being able to turn things in his favour and win his third straight match at the US Open in four sets.
Dominic Thiem v Juan Martin Del Potro: One of the best looking matches of the day comes from the men's Fourth Round when top ten Ranked Dominic Thiem takes on former US Open Champion Juan Martin Del Potro. This is the second year in a row that these two players will meet at the US Open and the fans will be hoping that there won't be a retirement as we saw in 2016 when Thiem had to pull out.
There are always questions about Thiem's fitness in the second half of the season because of his scheduling and amount of wins he is able to generate in the first half. With better scheduling this is a player that is more than capable of winning matches on any surface and Thiem is a definite threat to Del Potro in the Fourth Round.
The layers feel the same with the Argentine the slight favourite, and you can see why with Del Potro flying under the radar this week and having won all three matches without dropping a set. The big serve and heavy forehand is an obvious threat, but the backhand remains vulnerable as the restructured wrist makes it tough for Del Potro to generate the same power he could when winning the title here in 2009.
He is also facing one of the best backhands on the Tour and Thiem has to feel he has a considerable edge when they get into those battles. The challenge for Thiem will be finding a way to deal with the other big weapons Del Potro has, although Thiem has served and returned effectively enough this week to feel confident.
Neither player came into the US Open in great form, but both will feel good about their chances in this one. The surface may give Del Potro a slight edge, but I think Thiem is perhaps as fit as he ever has been going into the US Open and I am going to back the youngster to earn his biggest win at this tournament.
It would not surprise me if this match also sees the number of games surpassed with the possibility of this needing four long sets and perhaps even a fifth set needed. However I like Dominic Thiem being able to find a way to get through this one and I will back him as the underdog to move into the Quarter Final.
Roger Federer - 6.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: There won't be no secrets between Roger Federer and Philipp Kohlschreiber with these two friends also practice partners off the Tour as well as playing for the twelfth time on the Tour. All eleven previous matches have been won by Roger Federer and the 19 time Grand Slam Champion looked at something like close to his best in the Third Round.
After questions about his fitness coming into the US Open and two tougher than expected matches, Federer was much more positive about how he is feeling when dismissing Feliciano Lopez in the Third Round. He looked much freer in his overall movement and I have to think that Federer is beginning to get up to full speed as we get into the second week of the US Open.
It has been a good tournament for Kohlschreiber too as he has yet drop a set and should be plenty fresh with one of the matches cut short due to a retirement. That freshness has to give him some confidence against an opponent he has never beaten, but this all feels like a match that may end up in a routine victory for Federer.
There will be some decent points and some where Kohlschreiber gets the better of Federer, but overall you have to think that the latter is going to be a little too good at key moments which makes the difference in the match.
Federer and Kohlschreiber have only met twice before in a Grand Slam and the last time came at the US Open in 2015. On that day Federer won 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 in a routine Third Round match and I would not be surprised in any way if we get an almost identical scoreline. The margin should be repeated at least and I will back Federer to win a second match in a row in straight sets and cover the game handicap that has been placed by the layers.
Coco Vandeweghe-Lucie Safarova over 22.5 games: There is going to be so much to enjoy when Coco Vandeweghe and Lucie Safarova meet in the Fourth Round at the US Open with two big hitting players likely to match up well with one another. That big hitting makes it tough to pick a winner with the layers also struggling.
You can see the problem they are having- Vandeweghe should be the one who is able to dictate things more than Safarova, but her game is blighted by inconsistencies while she has been beaten in the last three matches she has played against the Czech player.
That includes a three set loss in Indian Wells back in March despite the numbers favouring Coco Vandeweghe on the day. She was just not good enough when it came to the break points that day as she went 1/10 compared with Safarova who was 3/6 and the latter won the match despite winning fewer return points than Vandeweghe.
Those numbers are not a sustainable way to win matches, but Safarova will have the mental edge with the three wins in a row against the American. She will have to face the crowd who will be backing Vandeweghe, but Safarova is plenty experienced and she has played well so far to come through the draw in a much more comfortable fashion than her opponent.
The Vandeweghe win over Agnieszka Radwanska was a huge one for the American though and I think she will be plenty of confident and this match looks like a really close one. I think there is every chance we are going to need a deciding set to figure out the winner in yet another of the Fourth Round women's matches at the US Open which have been highly competitive to say the least.
It may get done in two sets, but those are likely to be two long sets and I will look for the players to combine for at least 23 games on the day so I will look for serving to dominate for much of the day. Backing the total games to be surpassed looks like it has every chance of coming in despite the fairly high total being set.
Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 games v Kaia Kanepi: This is already the best performance Daria Kasatkina has had in a Grand Slam and she can continue the breakthrough tournament by reaching her maiden Quarter Final at this level. There are so much expectations about how well Kasatkina can do in her career with the potential she has shown, but that expectation can weigh heavy on a player and I wonder if that is the reason she hasn't really been able to take the next step sooner than she has.
Here at the US Open Kasatkina can fly under the radar with the headlines being taken by the home players who have reached the latter stages in both the men's and women's tournaments, and that has perhaps helped her. The dismantling of French Open Champion Jelena Ostapenko in the Third Round was really impressive and Kasatkina could not have asked for a better opponent in the Fourth Round.
That sounds a little disrespectful to Kaia Kanepi who has plenty of power and can challenge the very best players on the Tour. However injury has seen Kanepi's Ranking plummet to outside the top 500 and this is actually the first hard court tournament she has played in two years.
Kanepi had to join the Qualifiers this year at the US Open and she has won six matches to reach the Fourth Round although the best result is perhaps the win over Naomi Osaka. This is a different challenge for Kanepi as Kasatkina will force her to play plenty more balls than someone like Osaka would, while the return game of Kasatkina is a lot more superior than the Osaka one and will force Kanepi to really work hard to win her service games.
That pressure may be what breaks Kanepi as she also has to fight the fatigue of the amount of tennis she has played here over the last ten days after injury knocked her out of the sport for a while. Kanepi has been in fine form in recent weeks, but this is another step up for her on her return and I think Kasatkina is able to wear her down for a 7-6, 6-3 win.
Elina Svitolina v Madison Keys: This is the final match on Arthur Ashe Stadium in the Fourth Round and I have to say that there is going to be a fine line between Elina Svitolina and Madison Keys. The layers sense the same thing and I would not be surprised in any way if this match needs a third set to determine the winner.
However I tend to agree with the layers that Elina Svitolina is going have the slight edge over Madison Keys and I am going to back her to win this Fourth Round clash.
The key differences for me may come from the fact that Svitolina is the superior returner and she has a serve that can give Keys enough work to do to come through the match. One of the problems that Keys has is making enough returns and that will put pressure on her to keep up with her own serve.
While Keys has a serve that can be almost unplayable when feeling her very best, the pressure may lead to a few errors and I do think Svitolina has shown she can return with the very best on the WTA Tour. I expect her to make enough big returns, especially off the second serve return, to find a way to come through in this one.
Both players have been in solid form with big tournament wins in the preparation for the US Open, but the better looking wins have come from Svitolina. Their one previous match was won by Keys as she was leading a by a set and a break before Svitolina had to pull out, but that was two years ago and I think the latter is a much improved player and has moved past Keys.
It will be a fascinating match and one that won't have much between them, but I will back Elina Svitolina to move through to the Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal Win 3-1 @ 3.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Dominic Thiem @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe-Lucie Safarova Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
US Open Update: 30-28, + 0.24 Units (114 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
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Sunday, 3 September 2017
US Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2017 (September 3rd)
Saturday has been a busy day and Sunday is going to be even busier as I get set to travel to New York City so I can enjoy being at the US Open for a couple of days instead of simply following my favourite Slam on television.
Picking a winner looks really difficult as far as I am concerned as I think you can make a real case for both players. What looks a little easier to predict are the tight sets and a match that is unlikely to be concluded in straight sets for either player.
Hopefully the big names remaining in both men's and women's events can move through to the early part of the week, but more pressing is putting together the Tennis Picks from the first half of the Fourth Round matches which are scheduled to be played on Sunday.
Despite being in New York for a few days, I will still be able to post the US Open picks as we reach the latter stages of the tournament. I also am anticipating I will be able to get the NFL Week 1 thread posted either prior to the Thursday Night opener (if I have a selection from that game) or otherwise it will simply be posted on Saturday evening/Sunday morning this week in time for the majority of the games set to take place in Week 1.
Paolo Lorenzi-Kevin Anderson over 33.5 games: The feeling from the layers is that Kevin Anderson is going to blow past Paolo Lorenz in this Fourth Round match at the US Open on Sunday. The big serving South African has been in fine form this past week and he is a healthy favourite to beat Lorenzi, but I am not sure that the latter can't at least be a little competitive.
Lorenzi has already beaten Gilles Muller in the draw so he won't be overawed with having to play another big server. He has also shown some pretty good tennis to come through to the Fourth Round and there is enough about the Lorenzi game to at least think this one can be more of a challenge for Anderson than many believe.
The serve from Anderson is very impressive and I think that could be the weapon that not only sees him produce his best result in a Grand Slam, but may also take him to his first ever Grand Slam Final. In this half of the draw it certainly is feasible for that to happen and the Anderson numbers behind his serve have been very impressive.
It should be another strong showing from Anderson behind serve, but Lorenzi has been returning far more effectively this week than he has when playing on the hard courts this season. Coupled with a better serve than most would expect from Lorenzi and he certainly is capable of pushing for a couple of tie-breakers if not taking at least a set from Anderson in this one.
Pushing out a couple of tie-breakers would mean only a serious collapse in the third set would prevent this number of total games being covered. That would be a moot point if Lorenzi is able to take a set as I am convinced he does not win this in straight sets and I do think this number of games is perhaps a couple short of where I would have put the line.
I do think Lorenzi has played well enough to take a set and force Anderson into a real match, but I will play the total games market and look for these two to get together and surpass that.
Lucas Pouille-Diego Sebastian Schwartzman over 38.5 games: The bottom half of the men's draw at the US Open may have been decimated in terms of Seeds and 'big name' players but that has meant there is always the likelihood of seeing some competitive matches in the second week. All four matches to be played in the men's event on Sunday look to be very tight affairs and this one between Lucas Pouille and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has every chance of going the distance.
While there are some big things expected of Pouille who has reached two Grand Slam Quarter Finals, this may still feel like the best chance he can have of taking the next step in his career and reaching a Grand Slam Final. For Diego Sebastian Schwartzman I fully expect the Argentine to believe he will not have a better chance to reach a Slam Final and I think that is going to make this a nervy Fourth Round match for both.
The way they both play has all the hallmarks of a match that ebbs and flows and I do think there will be plenty of break point chances. Neither Pouille or Schwartzman have the overpowering type of tennis that can blow the other off the court although it is the Frenchman who should have the superior serve on the day.
Off the ground Schwartzman will feel he can match what Pouille can produce but the serve remans a vulnerability and you simply don't know how nerves will affect the two players knowing how open the bottom of the draw is.
Picking a winner looks really difficult as far as I am concerned as I think you can make a real case for both players. What looks a little easier to predict are the tight sets and a match that is unlikely to be concluded in straight sets for either player.
With that in mind I do think there is every chance the total games could be surpassed in this men's match. There haven't been too many epic five setters at the US Open at the time of writing, but this does feel like it could be one and I think a tight match is going to occur.
Sam Querrey-Mischa Zverev over 40.5 games: Zverev was expected to be the leading contender to make the US Open Final from the bottom half of the draw, but it was younger brother Alexander and not Mischa that was expected to be there. However Mischa Zverev is the one who is still in the draw and he has every chance of making the Final after upsetting John Isner in the Third Round.
It was an all round performance from Zverev to see off Isner and I have to say that I am surprised by how much of an underdog he is in this match. That says a lot about the way Sam Querrey has been playing with the strong serving he is known for being backed upby some really strong returning and far more effective play from that side of his game.
You just don't expect to see Querrey being able to not only make his returns, but following that up with some consistent play from the baseline. He has been getting into the net too and I think Querrey is playing the most confident tennis of his career as he looks to reach the latter stages of yet another Grand Slam after a strong showing at Wimbledon.
Zverev will test the returning with a big serve backed up by a serve-volley game that players don't see very often these days. He won't getting passed once or twice and Zverev will keep coming and asking questions of his opponent, while the win over Isner shows he can handle the home crowd and the huge serving that he will face again.
Getting to the net behind the lefty serve makes Zverev a danger and I am going back to the total games market in a match where you would think serving is going to dominate the landscape. Zverev showed in the last Round that he can break the big serves he faces, but I think Querrey will give him more trouble than Isner was able to and I would be surprised if this is a match that doesn't need four sets, at least, to separate them.
I have to say I have a lot of respect for how well Querrey has returned so far this week, but breaking the Zverev serve is a different test than the limited servers he has faced. Therefore I expect tie-breakers to be a key in this match and I am looking for both players to have their moments at key times to see them win at least one set each. Doing that should see the total games covered here.
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: The Fourth Round of the women's event to be played on Sunday look far more appealing than the men's matches as far as the casual fans will be concerned. There are big names playing in matches throughout the day and arguably the biggest is Maria Sharapova who is back on Arthur Ashe again despite the criticism some of her peers had of that.
I've never really looked at Sharapova as someone who will be bothered by what people think but instead she has been talking about how much she is enjoying being in New York City at the US Open. Her form has been decent through the first three Rounds, although the perfectionist in Sharapova will know there needs to be an improvement if she is going to really have a chance to win the tournament.
One of the key areas has to be the serve, either by improving the first serve percentage or by getting more out of the second serve. If Sharapova can do that, then she has every chance of winning another Grand Slam title here at the US Open, but the opponents will get a little better now and certainly will be playing with plenty of confidence.
Anastasija Sevastova has flown under the radar here at the US Open mainly because she did not play that well on the hard courts in Toronto or Cincinnati. While 2017 has been a very good year for Sevastova, the hard courts have been a little bit more of a challenge for her and I think that is going to be highlighted during the course of this match.
The numbers show that Sevastova has been slightly weaker behind the second serve and slightly poorer on the return of serve when it comes to matches on the hard courts. Those small changes can make a big difference in the results and I think Sevastova could be put under pressure by the really strong Sharapova returning which has laid the foundation for her success so far this week.
I can see a few breaks of serve for both players, but I think Sharapova may just own the better first serve numbers to get out of trouble a little more than Sevastova. With the way she has been returning, I will look for Sharapova to find a 7-5, 6-3 win and move into the Quarter Final on Tuesday.
Venus Williams - 3.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: Matches between Carla Suarez Navarro and Venus Williams have been very competitive over the years and the head to head is only 4-3 in favour of the American. That is something of a surprise as you would think the Williams game is matched up well with the Suarez Navarro one with the additional power likely to favour Venus Williams, but the battling Suarez Navarro has been able to surprise.
Confidence won't be an issue for Suarez Navarro going into the match with three solid wins behind her at the US Open, although the form prior to the tournament was not really indicating this run was going to happen. I think the Spaniard has been a touch fortunate in playing opponent against whom she has enjoyed plenty of success in the past, but you can't underestimate the fighter she can be.
You also can't ignore the fact that Williams is a player whose age means the consistency is not what it once was and her movement to the net is slightly slower than in her prime. That should mean Suarez Navarro is able to have her chances in the match when the rallies go into the fifth shot and later and that is what makes this as fascinating a match as I think it can be.
However I do think Venus Williams has been playing well enough to get into the Suarez Navarro serve with the return being a key to her runs to the Final in the Australian Open and Wimbledon. Returning well will be so important for Williams especially against an opponent who can sometimes fall apart when things begin to unravel for her.
Some of the losses Suarez Navarro suffered on the hard courts these past few weeks have seen her drop a set with a couple of breaks of serve given away. I can see one of the sets played on Sunday being highly competitive, but I can see Venus Williams running away with another one and I am looking for the veteran to work her way past this number of games on the handicap.
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 games v Julia Goerges: While most of the headlines from a 'comeback' player are being created by Maria Sharapova, I still think the Sloane Stephens return deserves equal billing at the very least. After a long term injury, Stephens has played really well in Toronto and Cincinnati and continued that run by flying under the radar at the US Open.
Stephens is once again in the second week of a Grand Slam, but it has to be a big surprise to her and her friends and family that she has yet to be scheduled on Arthur Ashe. Being an American should mean Stephens gets priority for one of those marquee spots, but it just goes to show the kind of names that are in the same half of the draw that she hasn't been despite the other three women's matches set for Ashe on Sunday
You have to think Stephens won't be worrying too much about the court she is playing on at the moment with the form being as good as anyone in the draw. Her wins have been impressive this week with strong numbers being shown both on serve and return and I think the confidence really has been filled up to full capacity.
The American beat Julia Goerges in Cincinnati last month and she is favoured to do the same against a dangerous opponent. Goerges has a big serve and heavy groundstrokes and she can be very difficult to stop when she gets on a roll especially when she strings the wins together in a tournament.
The returning numbers produced by Goerges have been stunning in the tournament and this is a player who reached the Final in Washington and Quarter Final in Cincinnati to show she can be more than competitive. Goerges has lost just ten games in three wins this week and I do think she will have her big moments in this one.
However this is a match up that Stephens hasn't minded in the past as her superior movement means she can turn defence into attack quickly while also forcing an inconsistent Goerges to hit one more ball than she would perhaps like. This could be a little closer than when they played in Cincinnati, but Stephens has been a good player to back for me in this tournament and I will look for her to come through with another win and cover in the Fourth Round.
Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 games v Petra Kvitova: If you have only got time to watch one tennis match on Sunday, I would perhaps pick the one between Petra Kvitova and Garbine Muguruza as the one to go with. Two players who have multiple Grand Slams under their belts already will always make the headlines, but it also feels the winner of this match is going to be very tough to beat before the Final next Saturday.
Neither player has dropped a set so far in the draw and Kvitova has begun to match the dominant wins that Muguruza has been producing throughout the tournament. While Kvitova has only lost the 17 games in three matches, Muguruza has been even more impressive with just 10 games dropped so far.
It also means Muguruza has won her last eight matches in a row and she is way more confident after winning Wimbledon than she was after winning her first Slam at the French Open in 2016. The return of serve has been a huge weapon for the Spaniard and I think that is going to be the difference maker in this match against an opponent who is still not back up to 100% after the horror injuries she suffered at the hands of an intruder at the end of last year.
The consistency is still not where Kvitova would want it to be and I do think Muguruza will challenge her far more than Alize Cornet and Caroline Garcia were able to do. To be fair to Kvitova, the win over Garcia was very impressive and will have built some confidence, but this is an opponent who is speaking with every belief she can go on and win another Slam in 2017.
Muguruza should be able to exert plenty of pressure with the power she can generate which can match what Kvitova is sending to her from the other side of the court. If she is serving as well as she has been during her eight match winning run, Kvitova may find the pressure a little too much to cope with and she may just have a tough day in the office like she has in recent losses to Sloane Stephens and Shuai Zhang.
After plenty of big hitting and some flashy winners from both sides of the court, I do think Muguruza is going to be able to keep it going a little longer and helping her come through with a 7-6, 6-3 win.
MY PICKS: Paolo Lorenzi-Kevin Anderson Over 33.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille-Diego Sebastian Schwartzman Over 38.5 Games @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sam Querrey-Mischa Zverev Over 40.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
US Open Update: 26-25, - 0.66 Units (100 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
US Open Update: 26-25, - 0.66 Units (100 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
Saturday, 2 September 2017
US Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2017 (September 2nd)
We are set to find out which players are making the second week at the US Open and you have to say that the best matches seem to be coming on the women's side of the draw so far this week.
Marin Cilic became the latest Seed to exit the tournament in the bottom of the men's draw and now it is clear that there is going to be a first time Grand Slam Finalist produced. Sam Querrey has to feel good about his position in the bottom half of the draw as America looks for a first male Finalist in over a decade, but John Isner cannot be anything but completely devastated that he has blown his best chance for a Slam Final that he will ever have.
That meant the top two Seeds remaining in the bottom half of the men's draw were both knocked out of the event on Friday and really opened the door for someone to make a surprise run.
In fact all the players left in the bottom half have to believe they may not have a better chance to play in a Grand Slam Final and that will create pressure of its own. It may mean we are going to see some nervous matches rather than quality ones in the coming week as players deal with emotions of knowing what is on the line and I think those watching the bottom half of the draws will be more interested in the loaded women's section than the men's which is not exactly the best list for the casual fan.
The Tennis Picks had a decent recovery on Friday but the last three picks of the day let me down a little bit. I am hoping the second week will be stronger than the first has been and that will hopefully begin on Saturday as we complete the Fourth Round line up.
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: I will open up by immediately saying that Adrian Mannarino tends to be one of the more under-rated players on the Tour because of his style of play. The left hander isn't blessed with a lot of power, but he plays smart around the court which can put opponents in difficult positions, while Mannarino is also someone who can frustrate with his strong defensive play and movement.
That hasn't been an issue for Dominic Thiem though having beaten Mannarino in all five previous matches including in Cincinnati a few weeks ago. That was one of the closer matches they have played against one another and definitely will have given Mannarino some confidence as he bids for the Third Round upset.
It is a difficult match up for Mannarino though despite the strong numbers he has produced on the hard courts. The serve is one that Thiem will have an opportunity to attack, while the other factor is the natural tendency to go into Thiem's backhand from the lefty.
The backhand is one of the flashier shots out on the Tour and Thiem should be able to rip back with plenty of power and you would feel he is going to be the stronger player in the extended rallies with his power pushing Mannarino backwards. Of course I think Mannarino will have his moments too as he slices and dices Thiem around and forces mistakes from the higher Ranked player, but I just don't think it will be possible for him to do that over a best of five set match.
The numbers from their two matches against one another this season, both on the hard courts, have been very similar. The difference in the margin of victory for Thiem in Acapulco and Cincinnati can come down to how well he played the break points, but similar numbers should mean Thiem has all the chances in this one too.
I will be looking for the Austrian to just be a little stronger on the break points as he was in Acapulco and I think he can wear down Mannarino for a 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 win.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 games v John Millman: There are a number of surprising names in the men's tournament as we have reached the Third Round of the US Open and John Millman is another one. His upset of Nick Kyrgios opened up his little section of the draw, but Millman is going to have to step up his performances if he is going to get the better of veteran Philipp Kohlschreiber.
The German has looked very good through the first couple of Rounds at the US Open and the numbers have been positive. Kohslchreiber missed the hard court season in North America over the last month, but he won the title in Kitzbuhel in July which means he has won his last seven matches going back to a Semi Final defeat in Hamburg.
It is something of a surprise that Kohlschreiber did miss the hard court tournaments because he has been in decent form on the hard courts in 2017. His returning numbers have improved on the 2015 and 2016 numbers while the serve has remained at a consistent level and that has led to a 12-6 record. To further underline the point about how well he has played on the hard courts, four of his six losses have come against players Ranked inside the top 10.
That also shows what kind of test this is going to be for John Millman who has spent the majority of his time playing below the main ATP level this season. The Australian is one of these players that looks too good for the Challenger circuit but not quite good enough for this level and I think that might prove to be the case on Saturday.
Kohlschreiber's numbers have been even better when he faces those players Ranked outside the top 100 and I do think he can put Millman under pressure with his return. While the latter is about his movement, I think Millman has shown the top 50 Ranked players are generally too much to handle for him as he struggles for the effective returns. Even the win over Nick Kyrgios has an asterisk next to it and I think Kohlschreiber will prove a little too good in this one as he moves through 7-6, 6-4, 6-3.
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: In both matches so far this week Rafael Nadal has made surprisingly slow starts before really going through the gears and beating overmatched opponents. This Third Round match feels like another where Nadal should be far too strong when he faces Leonardo Mayer, but the Spaniard World Number 1 would surely want to lay down a marker with a strong performance from start to finish.
Playing an opponent he has beaten three times out of three and one who is going to play a steady game like Mayer may be the right person for Nadal. The last two opponents have been a little unpredictable earlier in the match which may have thrown Nadal, although there are some real areas that need work if there is going to be a second Slam success in 2017 for the Spaniard.
The numbers have leaned heavily towards Nadal at the end of his last two matches which isn't a surprise with the final score he has produced. Overall though, Nadal's returning numbers on the hard courts in 2017 have been slightly below his average for the season with the most noticeable issue being his break points converted percentage which is some way lower than his overall number.
That could be an issue for Nadal later in the tournament, but against Lucky Loser Leonardo Mayer, I am not anticipating things being too much of an issue on the day. Mayer did win the big title in Hamburg in July and he has beaten two solid opponents so far in the main draw of the US Open, but his limited hard court exposure is a potential issue.
Mayer has to be respected from his previous history on the hard courts though with a serve that can be difficult to get into and that will give him confidence. When serving well Mayer can be a handful, although his returning game may not be good enough to stay with Nadal if he begins to get ground down.
Playing the very best players on the Tour have also been a problem for Mayer and his numbers do take a dent when playing someone Ranked inside the top five. He may be another to give Nadal some problems early on in this match, but I think the match up may be one that Nadal can feel a little more comfortable with and that will eventually show up on the scoreboard.
After a competitive first set, Nadal may begin to run through the gears as he has twice already this week and I will look for him to find his way to a 7-5, 6-3, 6-2 win.
Gael Monfils - 1.5 sets v David Goffin: A former US Open Semi Finalist is flying under the radar here so far this week as Gael Monfils prepares for his Third Round clash with David Goffin in what may be the match of the day on the men's side of the draw. The Frenchman may wish he was in the bottom half of the draw to finally fulfil the potential so many believed he had when he came onto the professional Tour, but on the other hand I am not sure Monfils' career has ever been about the titles but all about the entertainment.
He is well liked around the world because of that, but frustrating for those who want to see players produce their best tennis on the court. His lack of aggressiveness has always been the downfall, and Monfils is someone that can mentally be a little fragile when facing the best players.
Monfils is rightly coming into this match as the favourite against David Goffin who has not really looked the same player ever since that awful injury suffered at the French Open. While the damage was not as serious as it looked like it may be, Goffin's return has been underwhelming to say the least.
Since that retirement at the French Open, Goffin is 5-4 on the Tour and that includes the two wins he has had at the US Open. Losses to the likes of Ivan Dodig, Robin Haase, Hyeon Chung and Nick Kyrgios is not really what you would expect from Goffin and I do think there are some mental scars around the footwork which can be exposed by someone as athletic as Monfils.
I do expect some gruelling rallies to be played between these two players and matches have tended to be close when Monfils and Goffin have met in the past. However this time I am not sure Goffin is at 100% and I think Monfils will be able to impose himself a little more on the match.
Both have had tough paths through the draw to get to this Third Round, but I will look for Monfils to have the overall edge which leads to a win in three or four sets.
Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 games v Shuai Zhang: I was let down by Karolina Pliskova in the last Round as she struggled to deal with Nicole Gibbs, but this may be a match up that is more along the lines that the World Number 1 will enjoy. While we know the firepower that Pliskova is blessed with, Shuai Zhang is likely to want to fight fire with fire and that should mean short points which should be ideal for Pliskova.
The difference between the players is clearly the consistency off the ground and Zhang's serve is considerably more erratic than Pliskova's and those two factors can make a big difference in the match.
Zhang has played well in the first two Rounds and has produced two solid wins, but 2017 has been a difficult year for her after the breakthrough in 2016. Winning back to back matches has been a chore at times and Zhang has even taken in an ITF tournament to try and restore some of the lost confidence she has had.
If Zhang is at her best, she can give Pliskova problems as she has proven in the past, but being slightly below par can lead to the 6-2, 6-0 loss she suffered against this opponent in Doha earlier this year. I am not convinced Zhang's confidence is fully restored though and that can be a problem in this Third Round match.
It does have to be said that Pliskova has been a little up and down with her level of performance throughout the hard court swing, perhaps due to the pressure of expectation that comes with being the World Number 1. The return will be the key to this match and I would expect Pliskova to be able to time the faster Zhang delivery better than she did with Nicole Gibbs' slower serve and that can help her overcome this opponent a little more comfortably.
I am looking for Pliskova to improve drastically on the Second Round performance and find her way to a 6-4, 6-2 win in this match as she moves into the second week.
Lucie Safarova - 4.5 games v Kurumi Nara: All credit has to be given to Kurumi Nara for the way she was able to handle Svetlana Kuznetsova in the Second Round, but she will have to step up another level to beat Lucie Safarova. The latter is one of the dark horses in the women's draw after some strong performances in the build up to the US Open, although there are still some inconsistencies that need ironing out.
This does feel like a good match up for Safarova who will have the edge in power and will have played someone similar to the Nara game in the last Round. The Nara run to the Third Round will have been a big surprise already with little form in the tournaments prior to the US Open and a general struggle she has had on the hard courts in 2017.
The return is the key for Nara in any match she plays with her own serve vulnerable on the hard courts and that is where I think Safarova can snuff out the chances of the upset. Safarova has been very strong behind her serve on the hard courts in 2017 and she has been able to protect the second serve well enough to put the pressure on her opponents.
Safarova is also returning considerably better on the hard courts in 2017 compared to 2016 which has made a big difference in the results for her. That is going to be important in this match as I think Safarova will be able to break the Nara serve quite a few times and that is a reason I am backing her to cover this number of games.
While Nara will cause some problems against the serve, I think Safarova has been delivering the ball well enough to limit those issues. It will mean Nara is under immense pressure to keep holding her own vulnerable delivery and I think that will mentally wear her down during the course of this Third Round match.
This match won't be as straight-forward for Safarova as her win over Nara at the French Open in 2015, but I do think the Czech player will earn the breaks to record a 6-4, 6-3 win.
MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 1.5 Sets @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
US Open Update: 22-24, - 5.80 Units (90 Units Staked, - 6.44% Yield)
Marin Cilic became the latest Seed to exit the tournament in the bottom of the men's draw and now it is clear that there is going to be a first time Grand Slam Finalist produced. Sam Querrey has to feel good about his position in the bottom half of the draw as America looks for a first male Finalist in over a decade, but John Isner cannot be anything but completely devastated that he has blown his best chance for a Slam Final that he will ever have.
That meant the top two Seeds remaining in the bottom half of the men's draw were both knocked out of the event on Friday and really opened the door for someone to make a surprise run.
In fact all the players left in the bottom half have to believe they may not have a better chance to play in a Grand Slam Final and that will create pressure of its own. It may mean we are going to see some nervous matches rather than quality ones in the coming week as players deal with emotions of knowing what is on the line and I think those watching the bottom half of the draws will be more interested in the loaded women's section than the men's which is not exactly the best list for the casual fan.
The Tennis Picks had a decent recovery on Friday but the last three picks of the day let me down a little bit. I am hoping the second week will be stronger than the first has been and that will hopefully begin on Saturday as we complete the Fourth Round line up.
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: I will open up by immediately saying that Adrian Mannarino tends to be one of the more under-rated players on the Tour because of his style of play. The left hander isn't blessed with a lot of power, but he plays smart around the court which can put opponents in difficult positions, while Mannarino is also someone who can frustrate with his strong defensive play and movement.
That hasn't been an issue for Dominic Thiem though having beaten Mannarino in all five previous matches including in Cincinnati a few weeks ago. That was one of the closer matches they have played against one another and definitely will have given Mannarino some confidence as he bids for the Third Round upset.
It is a difficult match up for Mannarino though despite the strong numbers he has produced on the hard courts. The serve is one that Thiem will have an opportunity to attack, while the other factor is the natural tendency to go into Thiem's backhand from the lefty.
The backhand is one of the flashier shots out on the Tour and Thiem should be able to rip back with plenty of power and you would feel he is going to be the stronger player in the extended rallies with his power pushing Mannarino backwards. Of course I think Mannarino will have his moments too as he slices and dices Thiem around and forces mistakes from the higher Ranked player, but I just don't think it will be possible for him to do that over a best of five set match.
The numbers from their two matches against one another this season, both on the hard courts, have been very similar. The difference in the margin of victory for Thiem in Acapulco and Cincinnati can come down to how well he played the break points, but similar numbers should mean Thiem has all the chances in this one too.
I will be looking for the Austrian to just be a little stronger on the break points as he was in Acapulco and I think he can wear down Mannarino for a 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 win.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 games v John Millman: There are a number of surprising names in the men's tournament as we have reached the Third Round of the US Open and John Millman is another one. His upset of Nick Kyrgios opened up his little section of the draw, but Millman is going to have to step up his performances if he is going to get the better of veteran Philipp Kohlschreiber.
The German has looked very good through the first couple of Rounds at the US Open and the numbers have been positive. Kohslchreiber missed the hard court season in North America over the last month, but he won the title in Kitzbuhel in July which means he has won his last seven matches going back to a Semi Final defeat in Hamburg.
It is something of a surprise that Kohlschreiber did miss the hard court tournaments because he has been in decent form on the hard courts in 2017. His returning numbers have improved on the 2015 and 2016 numbers while the serve has remained at a consistent level and that has led to a 12-6 record. To further underline the point about how well he has played on the hard courts, four of his six losses have come against players Ranked inside the top 10.
That also shows what kind of test this is going to be for John Millman who has spent the majority of his time playing below the main ATP level this season. The Australian is one of these players that looks too good for the Challenger circuit but not quite good enough for this level and I think that might prove to be the case on Saturday.
Kohlschreiber's numbers have been even better when he faces those players Ranked outside the top 100 and I do think he can put Millman under pressure with his return. While the latter is about his movement, I think Millman has shown the top 50 Ranked players are generally too much to handle for him as he struggles for the effective returns. Even the win over Nick Kyrgios has an asterisk next to it and I think Kohlschreiber will prove a little too good in this one as he moves through 7-6, 6-4, 6-3.
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: In both matches so far this week Rafael Nadal has made surprisingly slow starts before really going through the gears and beating overmatched opponents. This Third Round match feels like another where Nadal should be far too strong when he faces Leonardo Mayer, but the Spaniard World Number 1 would surely want to lay down a marker with a strong performance from start to finish.
Playing an opponent he has beaten three times out of three and one who is going to play a steady game like Mayer may be the right person for Nadal. The last two opponents have been a little unpredictable earlier in the match which may have thrown Nadal, although there are some real areas that need work if there is going to be a second Slam success in 2017 for the Spaniard.
The numbers have leaned heavily towards Nadal at the end of his last two matches which isn't a surprise with the final score he has produced. Overall though, Nadal's returning numbers on the hard courts in 2017 have been slightly below his average for the season with the most noticeable issue being his break points converted percentage which is some way lower than his overall number.
That could be an issue for Nadal later in the tournament, but against Lucky Loser Leonardo Mayer, I am not anticipating things being too much of an issue on the day. Mayer did win the big title in Hamburg in July and he has beaten two solid opponents so far in the main draw of the US Open, but his limited hard court exposure is a potential issue.
Mayer has to be respected from his previous history on the hard courts though with a serve that can be difficult to get into and that will give him confidence. When serving well Mayer can be a handful, although his returning game may not be good enough to stay with Nadal if he begins to get ground down.
Playing the very best players on the Tour have also been a problem for Mayer and his numbers do take a dent when playing someone Ranked inside the top five. He may be another to give Nadal some problems early on in this match, but I think the match up may be one that Nadal can feel a little more comfortable with and that will eventually show up on the scoreboard.
After a competitive first set, Nadal may begin to run through the gears as he has twice already this week and I will look for him to find his way to a 7-5, 6-3, 6-2 win.
Gael Monfils - 1.5 sets v David Goffin: A former US Open Semi Finalist is flying under the radar here so far this week as Gael Monfils prepares for his Third Round clash with David Goffin in what may be the match of the day on the men's side of the draw. The Frenchman may wish he was in the bottom half of the draw to finally fulfil the potential so many believed he had when he came onto the professional Tour, but on the other hand I am not sure Monfils' career has ever been about the titles but all about the entertainment.
He is well liked around the world because of that, but frustrating for those who want to see players produce their best tennis on the court. His lack of aggressiveness has always been the downfall, and Monfils is someone that can mentally be a little fragile when facing the best players.
Monfils is rightly coming into this match as the favourite against David Goffin who has not really looked the same player ever since that awful injury suffered at the French Open. While the damage was not as serious as it looked like it may be, Goffin's return has been underwhelming to say the least.
Since that retirement at the French Open, Goffin is 5-4 on the Tour and that includes the two wins he has had at the US Open. Losses to the likes of Ivan Dodig, Robin Haase, Hyeon Chung and Nick Kyrgios is not really what you would expect from Goffin and I do think there are some mental scars around the footwork which can be exposed by someone as athletic as Monfils.
I do expect some gruelling rallies to be played between these two players and matches have tended to be close when Monfils and Goffin have met in the past. However this time I am not sure Goffin is at 100% and I think Monfils will be able to impose himself a little more on the match.
Both have had tough paths through the draw to get to this Third Round, but I will look for Monfils to have the overall edge which leads to a win in three or four sets.
Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 games v Shuai Zhang: I was let down by Karolina Pliskova in the last Round as she struggled to deal with Nicole Gibbs, but this may be a match up that is more along the lines that the World Number 1 will enjoy. While we know the firepower that Pliskova is blessed with, Shuai Zhang is likely to want to fight fire with fire and that should mean short points which should be ideal for Pliskova.
The difference between the players is clearly the consistency off the ground and Zhang's serve is considerably more erratic than Pliskova's and those two factors can make a big difference in the match.
Zhang has played well in the first two Rounds and has produced two solid wins, but 2017 has been a difficult year for her after the breakthrough in 2016. Winning back to back matches has been a chore at times and Zhang has even taken in an ITF tournament to try and restore some of the lost confidence she has had.
If Zhang is at her best, she can give Pliskova problems as she has proven in the past, but being slightly below par can lead to the 6-2, 6-0 loss she suffered against this opponent in Doha earlier this year. I am not convinced Zhang's confidence is fully restored though and that can be a problem in this Third Round match.
It does have to be said that Pliskova has been a little up and down with her level of performance throughout the hard court swing, perhaps due to the pressure of expectation that comes with being the World Number 1. The return will be the key to this match and I would expect Pliskova to be able to time the faster Zhang delivery better than she did with Nicole Gibbs' slower serve and that can help her overcome this opponent a little more comfortably.
I am looking for Pliskova to improve drastically on the Second Round performance and find her way to a 6-4, 6-2 win in this match as she moves into the second week.
Lucie Safarova - 4.5 games v Kurumi Nara: All credit has to be given to Kurumi Nara for the way she was able to handle Svetlana Kuznetsova in the Second Round, but she will have to step up another level to beat Lucie Safarova. The latter is one of the dark horses in the women's draw after some strong performances in the build up to the US Open, although there are still some inconsistencies that need ironing out.
This does feel like a good match up for Safarova who will have the edge in power and will have played someone similar to the Nara game in the last Round. The Nara run to the Third Round will have been a big surprise already with little form in the tournaments prior to the US Open and a general struggle she has had on the hard courts in 2017.
The return is the key for Nara in any match she plays with her own serve vulnerable on the hard courts and that is where I think Safarova can snuff out the chances of the upset. Safarova has been very strong behind her serve on the hard courts in 2017 and she has been able to protect the second serve well enough to put the pressure on her opponents.
Safarova is also returning considerably better on the hard courts in 2017 compared to 2016 which has made a big difference in the results for her. That is going to be important in this match as I think Safarova will be able to break the Nara serve quite a few times and that is a reason I am backing her to cover this number of games.
While Nara will cause some problems against the serve, I think Safarova has been delivering the ball well enough to limit those issues. It will mean Nara is under immense pressure to keep holding her own vulnerable delivery and I think that will mentally wear her down during the course of this Third Round match.
This match won't be as straight-forward for Safarova as her win over Nara at the French Open in 2015, but I do think the Czech player will earn the breaks to record a 6-4, 6-3 win.
MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 1.5 Sets @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
US Open Update: 22-24, - 5.80 Units (90 Units Staked, - 6.44% Yield)
Friday, 1 September 2017
US Open Day 5 Tennis Picks 2017 (September 1st)
I have to say that Thursday proved to be one of the more irritating days I've had in the Grand Slam tournaments this year as sloppy play at key moments of a number of matches cost me the chance of continuing the winning run.
Both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal missed the cover by a single game which can be put down to the stupid breaks they gave away during their Second Round wins. There are at least three or four key games that could have gone their way which didn't and that was a part of the bigger picture of what feels like a bad luck day.
Karolina Pliskova and Elina Svitolina won matches in much more difficult fashion than I could imagine, while Grigor Dimitrov was dumped out by Andrey Rublev.
Forget the picks, the Dimitrov loss is a devastating one for a player who is desperate to show he belongs with the elite of the men's game. This tournament could not have been shaping up any better for the Bulgarian with so many of the top men's names out of the US Open before it even began.
With Alexander Zverev, the other Masters Champion on the hard courts over the last month, out on Wednesday, Dimitrov must have begun to think he could go all the way and win a maiden Slam.
Then he produced one of the most listless displays you could imagine.
I was pretty critical of that on Twitter and I will make the point again- I simply don't think Dimitrov will ever win a Grand Slam. I just can't see him winning seven best of five matches in a row and this was the best chance he will ever have of winning a Grand Slam title but it was almost given away with the pressure seemingly seeing him shut down in the Second Round.
I actually think Dimitrov has probably realised it isn't going to happen for him now too with a younger generation set to break through and the old guard likely to return reinvigorated in 2018. Maybe there will be one last opportunity in Melbourne in January, but I wouldn't back Dimitrov with my enemy's money to go on and win a Slam.
In recent years the men's draw has been far more exciting than the women's but I think there has been a shift this year. With the top women players separated as well as they have been, the women's event looks like it could have some huge matches in the second week, while the men's draw seems to be about Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer and not a lot else.
The bottom half of the men's draw really looks weak and is giving a number of players who have yet to make a Slam the chance to do that. If you're John Isner or Sam Querrey, what better chance will you ever have of playing in the US Open Final than this year?
Pressure can do a funny thing (just ask Dimitrov), but I do think there is every chance we will see an American male Finalist here for the first time in over decade since Andy Roddick was still in his heyday.
On Friday and Saturday we are in to the Third Round of the US Open and this is when players begin to really want to start producing their better tennis as they get set to go into the second week. There are some decent matches spread over the next couple of days and this thread will be focused on the Third Round matches to be played on Friday.
Marin Cilic - 5.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: After Andy Murray withdrew from the US Open just a couple of days before the tournament was to begin, it was Marin Cilic who benefited the most by being placed at the bottom of the draw. Thanks to Alexander Zverev's surprising Second Round loss, Cilic is also the highest Seed left in the draw and the former US Open Champion and Wimbledon Finalist may feel another Grand Slam Final could be in his future.
This is the first tournament Cilic has played since physically and emotionally breaking down in the Wimbledon Final as he was swatted aside by Roger Federer. Any lingering doubts about his state of mind have been erased though as Cilic has won his first two matches fairly impressively for the loss of just a single set.
The Second Round performance against Florian Mayer was a step up from the First Round performance and Cilic may feel he can make the gradual improvements to peak for the Final a week on Sunday. He does look the best player in the bottom half of the draw, but making sure he looks the best on the court is the challenge.
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has had a really good 2017 and he looks like he could move inside the top 30 in the World Rankings which will mean being Seeded on his own merit rather than down to players higher up the Rankings pulling out. His two wins have been even more straight-forward than the ones Cilic has produced and Schwartzman will be full of confidence even if the hard courts are not his favoured surface.
He did reach the Quarter Final at the Canadian Masters, but generally his best comes on the clay courts. While Schwartzman is able to hit through the courts with surprising power off the ground, the serve can be a real weakness and that puts him in a vulnerable position and one that I expect Cilic to take advantage of.
Cilic will have to be careful because Schwartzman is a decent returner and can rally with the best out there, but I would thin the former US Open Champion is able to wear him down. He may drop another set, but I can see Cilic being able to dominate one and that can lead to a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 win.
Denis Shapovalov-Kyle Edmund over 38.5 games: This has been a tremendous last six weeks for Denis Shapovalov who has won a Challenger event on the hard courts before reaching the Semi Final of another and then the Semi Final at the Canadian Masters in front of his home fans. Winning three Qualifiers to get into the main draw of the US Open has kept the momentum going and Shapovalov has then backed that up with two wins over solid opponents Daniil Medvedev and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
With the bottom half of the draw opening up, Shapovalov may already have some backers who believe the youngster is ready to make the biggest breakthrough by reaching his first professional Grand Slam Final. Shapovalov won Junior Wimbledon to highlight the talent he has, but the last six weeks must feel like a dream for the young Canadian.
No one in the bottom half will make Shapovalov fearful, especially not when you think he has beaten the likes of Rafael Nadal, Juan Martin Del Potro and Tsonga over the last few weeks. That form has to be the reason he is a fairly handy favourite to beat Kyle Edmund in the Third Round on Friday, while the star has risen for Shapovalov to have this match scheduled on Arthur Ashe Stadium.
It is a long way from when these two players first met in 2017 which is best known for a Shapovalov disqualification when he accidentally struck the chair umpire with a stray ball. That will feel a long time ago and Shapovalov did beat Edmund on the grass courts at Queens in June since then.
That was a tight match and I am expecting another here as Edmund also comes into the match with some form behind him. He reached the Semi Final in Winston Salem last week and Edmund's wins over Robin Haase and Steve Johnson are solid enough form.
The key for both players is who can return the most effectively and only narrow margins separated these two at Queens on the grass. You would feel the hard courts are the more natural surface for Shapovalov, but Edmund has shown he can compete on the surface too and I would be surprised if either player is able to win this one in straight sets.
Shapovalov is the right favourite I think, but he looks short enough and I am going to back these two players to need four tight sets to separate them and so asking them to cover this number of total games is the stand out way to go.
Kevin Anderson -1.5 sets v Borna Coric: At one point a couple of years ago, Borna Coric and Alexander Zverev were at a similar trajectory in their young careers with perhaps Coric having the edge. Things have changed enough over the last few months to make Coric's win over Zverev in the Second Round here a huge upset though as he was able to beat one of the favourites to win the title at the US Open.
Backing that up is the challenge for Coric who has had an underwhelming 2017 with a couple of bright moments being overshadowed by plenty of inconsistency. Even his performances over the last few weeks have seen Coric lose matches to the likes of Nicoloz Basilashvili and Jan-Lennard Struff on the hard courts which did not indicate a big chance that he would beat someone like Zverev.
Picking himself up from an emotional win is another challenge for Coric as he faces the steady Kevin Anderson whose best Grand Slam result has come at the US Open. The big serving South African will very much focus on his own game and will feel if that is working to the standard he expects that it will be enough to see off the youngster.
Anderson's booming serve heaps plenty of pressure on opponents and he has been in solid form over the last couple of months after injury delayed his beginning to the 2017 season. A Fourth Round in Wimbledon was followed by reaching the Final in Washington and Quarter Final in Montreal with only Alexander Zverev proving too good for him on both occasions.
The two wins here this week have come relatively comfortably and Coric's return numbers on the hard courts does make me worry for him. He won the key points on Wednesday to beat Zverev, but the pressure of finding those successes again could be much tougher against Anderson with more expectation on Coric's shoulders.
It does have to be said that Anderson's own return is not his strength, but he can build pressure with his serve and his two previous wins over Coric will only make his belief stronger too. Tie-breakers are likely to be a key factor, but I will look for Coric to just slip from the level he produced against Zverev and that being enough to see Anderson through in three or four sets.
Lucas Pouille win 3-1 v Mikhail Kukushkin: After winning the first two sets of his Second Round match, Lucas Pouille looked set to move into the Third Round relatively comfortably However it all changed in the match against Jared Donaldson and the Frenchman had to show considerable heart to remain alive in the US Open.
He does seem to save his best tennis for the Grand Slams at the moment although 2017 has been a disappointment in those tournaments after back to back Quarter Finals in the last two Slams of 2016. It does mean Pouille still has considerable points to defend here in New York City, but I think he can take heart from the way he beat Donaldson especially with the way the draw has opened up.
This won't be an easy match though as he faces the talented, but extremely inconsistent, Mikhail Kukushkin in the Third Round. The Kazakhstan player has come through three Qualifiers and also upset David Ferrer in the main draw all the while dropping just a single set in the first five matches he has played here.
There wasn't many signs that Kukushkin was ready for this kind of tournament after back to back early losses in his last two hard court tournaments. However there has been an improvement in the return game in 2017 on this surface and at the main ATP level which does make Kukushkin a threat if Pouille is not feeling 100% after a difficult Second Round match.
Kukushkin has been returning just a little bit better which is making a big difference for him, although you can't ignore the fact he is 4-12 on the hard courts against top 50 World Ranked players over the last eighteen months. That includes a four set loss to Pouille here at the US Open last year and I think we may see something similar here, especially with the better performances Kukushkin has shown in 2017 and here this week.
I would still think Pouille will be too good over the course of the match, but having a small interest in this one ending in four sets in favour of the Frenchman is the call.
Sam Querrey - 6.5 games v Radu Albot: The first reaction you would have to this spread is that it is far too many games being asked of a limited returner like Sam Querrey. However Querrey has been seeing the ball pretty big over the last couple of months which has seen him produce some strong wins and I do think he is facing an overmatched opponent in this one.
All credit has to be given to Radu Albot for coming through the Qualifiers and then winning two main draw matches, but Yen-Hsun Lu will be going home kicking himself that he didn't win their Second Round contest. Albot has thus taken advantage of a bit of luck and a relatively kind draw to move through to the Third Round of a Grand Slam for the first time in his career.
It is a surprise that it has come on the hard courts in New York where Albot had three successive First Round losses previously. His overall numbers on the hard courts have been far from impressive and the majority of those have been played at the Challenger level which just highlights how unexpected his run has been.
He is winning under 60% of service points on the hard courts and that is not going to cut it at this level. Now he has to face the home crowd and an opponent who is perhaps at his most confident after reaching the Semi Final at Wimbledon and winning a hard court title in Los Cabos over the last six weeks.
Sam Querrey has also won at least 42% of return points in his two wins in the US Open against Gilles Simon and Dudi Sela, two players whose serve can be compared to Albot's. That is better than his season returning stats on the hard courts, but Querrey's 39% return points won on the surface is decent enough when dropping to the level of an opponent who is more accustomed to the Challenger level.
I wouldn't be that surprised if Albot is able to make four awkward returns to break the Querrey serve, but overall I would anticipate the American has the majority of the chances. As long as he continues returning to the level he has shown throughout 2017 (winning 6% more points on return) then I would imagine he is going to record another routine win.
Querrey has covered this number of games in both wins at the US Open so far and I will look for him to record a 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 win in the Third Round.
Mischa Zverev-John Isner over 39.5 games: Most people would have expected to see 'Zverev' in the Third Round draw, but if you were told only one of the two brothers were to make this stage then not many would have picked Mischa. It is big brother who keeps the family name alive in the draw after Alexander was beaten surprisingly in the Second Round, but Mischa Zverev is not nearly as favoured as his younger sibling was.
This is a very difficult match for Zverev in the Third Round as he opens the evening session on Arthur Ashe and faces a home favourite in John Isner. The latter will be thinking this is a real opportunity this year to make the Final of his home Grand Slam, perhaps the only one he will have in the remainder of his career, and so there is some pressure on Isner to deal with.
Isner has had two impressive wins in the US Open already, but those were played without the expectation he will have now. Since then Alexander Zverev has opened up the bottom half of the draw and Isner's Semi Final run in Cincinnati shows that he is capable of going deep in the tournament here.
He does have to beat someone who has recorded two wins over Isner this season including a long five set win at the Australian Open. John Isner won the first two sets against Mischa Zverev in the Second Round back in January but was then beaten 9-7 in a final set decider, while he has also lost to this opponent on the clay courts in Geneva.
The hard courts in New York should suit Isner more than Zverev, but the latter has the kind of game that can trouble a poor returner like the one he faces and that makes him dangerous. More of an issue for Zverev has to be the fact he has already played back to back five set matches so the biggest concern for the German has to be fatigue going into this Third Round encounter.
Tie-breakers look to be the order of the day when these two meet especially when two servers as effective as Isner and Zverev are meeting. It helps that neither is exactly a supreme returner and the only concern for this total number of games is that one of the players falls by the wayside in straight sets.
They did create 33 break points between them when they met at the Australian Open so there is a chance that this match is a lot more simple than I am anticipating if more than 4 breaks of serve are converted. However it does feel serving is going to be the best weapon for both players and I hope the first two sets are split to almost ensure we get a chance to cover this number of games.
Carla Suarez Navarro + 2.5 games v Ekaterina Makarova: It has been a strange 2017 season for Ekaterina Makarova who was perhaps dealing with a deeper injury issue than she ever let on in the first half of the season. She has moved into the Third Round at the US Open with an impressive win over Caroline Wozniacki, who has had some strong success at the US Open in the past, and her form has been really good over the last few weeks.
That is highlighted by the fact that Makarova has won almost half of her 23 match wins in 2017 since moving back onto the hard courts after Wimbledon. That includes winning a title in Washington and only the in-form Lucie Safarova and Sloane Stephens have been able to stop the Russian.
In that time Makarova has beaten Wozniacki and added her to the likes of Simona Halep, Johanna Konta and Angelique Kerber, although it may be telling that all of those players have exited the US Open before the Third Round. This match will also be a different kind of challenge for Makarova as she wasn't favoured to win many of the matches she has won and the expectation has changed against Carla Suarez Navarro.
On the hard courts you would think Suarez Navarro is vulnerable with a serve that can be attacked, but the mental advantage belongs to the Spaniard who has beaten Makarova four times in a row. That includes on the hard courts, clay courts and in June on the grass courts which suggests this could be a match up problem for the favoured player.
Suarez Navarro has won her two matches here effectively and she has to feel she can beat an opponent she has six out of eight previous times. The form prior to the US Open was not that inspiring though which does raise some red flags, but this still looks like a lot of games being given to the Spaniard and taking a set may be enough to ensure a cover at the worst.
I think Suarez Navarro could come close to the win too, although she is guilty of some really poor performances when things spiral out of her control. Hopefully that won't be the case here in what feels a good match up for her with the backhand capable of hanging with the Makarova forehand, and I will take the games being offered.
Sloane Stephens - 1.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: This is an amazing opportunity for two of the feel-good comeback stories on the WTA Tour in 2017. Ashleigh Barty returned to the Tour after deciding she had had enough of tennis and moved into the cricket world, while Sloane Stephens is off a long-term injury and making the best use of her Protected Ranking.
Both players have to look at this match as a great opportunity to reach the second week of the US Open and I think this could end up being the best match of the day for the neutral fan. It should be highly competitive and the layers feel the same with very little between them in the markets.
Barty has been in good form with a stand out win over Venus Williams the highlight of her six weeks on the hard courts, while a three set loss to Garbine Muguruza is hardly a crime considering the form the Spaniard has been in. Ten wins and two losses will give anyone confidence so Barty has to be feeling good about her game with an under-rated serve and real power off the ground which makes her a dangerous player to face.
Being in good form is something Sloane Stephens knows all about and she came into the US Open draw as another dangerous floater in the draw. She reached back to back Semi Finals at the Premier Events in Toronto and Cincinnati and her losses have come against the likes of Caroline Wozniacki and Simona Halep, two players who have decent movement and what I would consider better than Barty's.
Those movers weren't a problem when Stephens dismissed Dominika Cibulkova in the Second Round here and I do think the American is going to be tough to stop here. Her own serve is a solid weapon, but Stephens has been seeing the ball like beachball and her returns have been mighty effective the last few weeks.
It is the return that has helped Stephens win her two matches here so far and I think that will be the key element in getting past Barty on Friday. I would be really surprised if this isn't another match that needs to go the distance for Stephens with her Australian opponent in good nick too, but I will look for the American to have the better movement which enables her to just steal a point or two for a 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 win.
Magdalena Rybarikova-Garbine Muguruza under 18.5 games: A rematch of the Wimbledon Semi Final from July is taking place in the Third Round at the US Open and I do wonder if the mental scars have healed for Magdalena Rybarikova. On that day everything that could go wrong did go wrong, but now she is facing a Garbine Muguruza who arguably looks like the strongest player in the draw.
That is different to Wimbledon when the confidence was perhaps not where it is now, and I think Muguruza is looking very dangerous in the draw. After a couple of Quarter Final runs, Muguruza won the title in Cincinnati and she has dropped just 13 games in her last four matches which includes playing Karolina Pliskova and Simona Halep.
The serve has been a monster weapon for Muguruza in those four wins as none of her opponents were able to win more than 32% of the returns and it does set up the rest of her game. When Muguruza is feeling good, she can then begin to exert immense pressure with the power of her returns and I do think Rybarikova could be on the back foot much like she was when they played at Wimbledon.
Rybarikova didn't Qualify for the main draw at her last two tournaments before winning back to back matches in the US Open. There hasn't been a lot of hard court success to fall back upon like there was the grass court success prior to Wimbledon and I do think Rybarikova could really struggle here.
Her opponent is being asked to cover a lot of games, but Muguruza is more than capable of doing that. With her form as it is, I think the Spaniard can really put the hammer down on Rybarikova again and I am going to look for a 6-4, 6-1 kind of win for Muguruza, but will look for the total games to remain unsurpassed at a big price.
Maria Sharapova - 6.5 games v Sofia Kenin: It is perhaps not the most surprising thing to see Maria Sharapova have her ups and downs in her first two matches back in a Grand Slam after a long lay off serving a suspension. Having missed out at the French Open due to her World Ranking and Wimbledon due to injury, Sharapova has made the best use of the Wild Card that was granted to her in the US Open.
Beating Simona Halep has opened up her Quarter of the draw, while the exits of Johanna Konta have helped too. A tougher than expected win over Timea Babos wasn't a big surprised as Sharapova struggled with the new expectations around her, but she is not facing a huge hitter like Babos in the Third Round.
It can be argued that Sofia Kenin is the weakest of the players Sharapova has faced so far and being under the lights on Arthur Ashe is clearly a place that Sharapova has enjoyed with an unbeaten record in the evening session. For Kenin it will be a completely different experience and a difficult one for a young player who spends the majority of her time at the levels below the main WTA Tour.
Kenin has played well at the lower levels on the hard courts with ITF title successes under her belt but this is a huge step up both mentally and competitively. The two wins so far this week have come against players far below the standard that Sharapova can produce and the Russian's numbers on her return have been strong enough to think she can cover this spread, even though it is a big number.
The serve has been much better than I expected from Sharapova but even more impressive is how well she has been returning. Before this week she was winning 47% of the return points which is going to create immense pressure, and she has surpassed that number in her two wins at the US Open.
That kind of pressure is not something Kenin will have been accustomed to nor playing under the lights with the whole tournament focused on you. It could inspire Kenin as it has for others so far this week, but I think this may be the match where Sharapova is perhaps at her most comfortable as she moves into the second week of a Grand Slam for the first time since the Australian Open in January 2016.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov-Kyle Edmund Over 38.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille Win 3-1 @ 4.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Sam Querrey - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev-John Isner Over 39.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Magdalena Rybarikova-Garbine Muguruza Under 18.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
US Open Update: 17-20, - 8.02 Units (73 Units Staked, - 10.98% Yield)
Both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal missed the cover by a single game which can be put down to the stupid breaks they gave away during their Second Round wins. There are at least three or four key games that could have gone their way which didn't and that was a part of the bigger picture of what feels like a bad luck day.
Karolina Pliskova and Elina Svitolina won matches in much more difficult fashion than I could imagine, while Grigor Dimitrov was dumped out by Andrey Rublev.
Forget the picks, the Dimitrov loss is a devastating one for a player who is desperate to show he belongs with the elite of the men's game. This tournament could not have been shaping up any better for the Bulgarian with so many of the top men's names out of the US Open before it even began.
With Alexander Zverev, the other Masters Champion on the hard courts over the last month, out on Wednesday, Dimitrov must have begun to think he could go all the way and win a maiden Slam.
Then he produced one of the most listless displays you could imagine.
I was pretty critical of that on Twitter and I will make the point again- I simply don't think Dimitrov will ever win a Grand Slam. I just can't see him winning seven best of five matches in a row and this was the best chance he will ever have of winning a Grand Slam title but it was almost given away with the pressure seemingly seeing him shut down in the Second Round.
I actually think Dimitrov has probably realised it isn't going to happen for him now too with a younger generation set to break through and the old guard likely to return reinvigorated in 2018. Maybe there will be one last opportunity in Melbourne in January, but I wouldn't back Dimitrov with my enemy's money to go on and win a Slam.
In recent years the men's draw has been far more exciting than the women's but I think there has been a shift this year. With the top women players separated as well as they have been, the women's event looks like it could have some huge matches in the second week, while the men's draw seems to be about Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer and not a lot else.
The bottom half of the men's draw really looks weak and is giving a number of players who have yet to make a Slam the chance to do that. If you're John Isner or Sam Querrey, what better chance will you ever have of playing in the US Open Final than this year?
Pressure can do a funny thing (just ask Dimitrov), but I do think there is every chance we will see an American male Finalist here for the first time in over decade since Andy Roddick was still in his heyday.
On Friday and Saturday we are in to the Third Round of the US Open and this is when players begin to really want to start producing their better tennis as they get set to go into the second week. There are some decent matches spread over the next couple of days and this thread will be focused on the Third Round matches to be played on Friday.
Marin Cilic - 5.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: After Andy Murray withdrew from the US Open just a couple of days before the tournament was to begin, it was Marin Cilic who benefited the most by being placed at the bottom of the draw. Thanks to Alexander Zverev's surprising Second Round loss, Cilic is also the highest Seed left in the draw and the former US Open Champion and Wimbledon Finalist may feel another Grand Slam Final could be in his future.
This is the first tournament Cilic has played since physically and emotionally breaking down in the Wimbledon Final as he was swatted aside by Roger Federer. Any lingering doubts about his state of mind have been erased though as Cilic has won his first two matches fairly impressively for the loss of just a single set.
The Second Round performance against Florian Mayer was a step up from the First Round performance and Cilic may feel he can make the gradual improvements to peak for the Final a week on Sunday. He does look the best player in the bottom half of the draw, but making sure he looks the best on the court is the challenge.
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has had a really good 2017 and he looks like he could move inside the top 30 in the World Rankings which will mean being Seeded on his own merit rather than down to players higher up the Rankings pulling out. His two wins have been even more straight-forward than the ones Cilic has produced and Schwartzman will be full of confidence even if the hard courts are not his favoured surface.
He did reach the Quarter Final at the Canadian Masters, but generally his best comes on the clay courts. While Schwartzman is able to hit through the courts with surprising power off the ground, the serve can be a real weakness and that puts him in a vulnerable position and one that I expect Cilic to take advantage of.
Cilic will have to be careful because Schwartzman is a decent returner and can rally with the best out there, but I would thin the former US Open Champion is able to wear him down. He may drop another set, but I can see Cilic being able to dominate one and that can lead to a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 win.
Denis Shapovalov-Kyle Edmund over 38.5 games: This has been a tremendous last six weeks for Denis Shapovalov who has won a Challenger event on the hard courts before reaching the Semi Final of another and then the Semi Final at the Canadian Masters in front of his home fans. Winning three Qualifiers to get into the main draw of the US Open has kept the momentum going and Shapovalov has then backed that up with two wins over solid opponents Daniil Medvedev and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
With the bottom half of the draw opening up, Shapovalov may already have some backers who believe the youngster is ready to make the biggest breakthrough by reaching his first professional Grand Slam Final. Shapovalov won Junior Wimbledon to highlight the talent he has, but the last six weeks must feel like a dream for the young Canadian.
No one in the bottom half will make Shapovalov fearful, especially not when you think he has beaten the likes of Rafael Nadal, Juan Martin Del Potro and Tsonga over the last few weeks. That form has to be the reason he is a fairly handy favourite to beat Kyle Edmund in the Third Round on Friday, while the star has risen for Shapovalov to have this match scheduled on Arthur Ashe Stadium.
It is a long way from when these two players first met in 2017 which is best known for a Shapovalov disqualification when he accidentally struck the chair umpire with a stray ball. That will feel a long time ago and Shapovalov did beat Edmund on the grass courts at Queens in June since then.
That was a tight match and I am expecting another here as Edmund also comes into the match with some form behind him. He reached the Semi Final in Winston Salem last week and Edmund's wins over Robin Haase and Steve Johnson are solid enough form.
The key for both players is who can return the most effectively and only narrow margins separated these two at Queens on the grass. You would feel the hard courts are the more natural surface for Shapovalov, but Edmund has shown he can compete on the surface too and I would be surprised if either player is able to win this one in straight sets.
Shapovalov is the right favourite I think, but he looks short enough and I am going to back these two players to need four tight sets to separate them and so asking them to cover this number of total games is the stand out way to go.
Kevin Anderson -1.5 sets v Borna Coric: At one point a couple of years ago, Borna Coric and Alexander Zverev were at a similar trajectory in their young careers with perhaps Coric having the edge. Things have changed enough over the last few months to make Coric's win over Zverev in the Second Round here a huge upset though as he was able to beat one of the favourites to win the title at the US Open.
Backing that up is the challenge for Coric who has had an underwhelming 2017 with a couple of bright moments being overshadowed by plenty of inconsistency. Even his performances over the last few weeks have seen Coric lose matches to the likes of Nicoloz Basilashvili and Jan-Lennard Struff on the hard courts which did not indicate a big chance that he would beat someone like Zverev.
Picking himself up from an emotional win is another challenge for Coric as he faces the steady Kevin Anderson whose best Grand Slam result has come at the US Open. The big serving South African will very much focus on his own game and will feel if that is working to the standard he expects that it will be enough to see off the youngster.
Anderson's booming serve heaps plenty of pressure on opponents and he has been in solid form over the last couple of months after injury delayed his beginning to the 2017 season. A Fourth Round in Wimbledon was followed by reaching the Final in Washington and Quarter Final in Montreal with only Alexander Zverev proving too good for him on both occasions.
The two wins here this week have come relatively comfortably and Coric's return numbers on the hard courts does make me worry for him. He won the key points on Wednesday to beat Zverev, but the pressure of finding those successes again could be much tougher against Anderson with more expectation on Coric's shoulders.
It does have to be said that Anderson's own return is not his strength, but he can build pressure with his serve and his two previous wins over Coric will only make his belief stronger too. Tie-breakers are likely to be a key factor, but I will look for Coric to just slip from the level he produced against Zverev and that being enough to see Anderson through in three or four sets.
Lucas Pouille win 3-1 v Mikhail Kukushkin: After winning the first two sets of his Second Round match, Lucas Pouille looked set to move into the Third Round relatively comfortably However it all changed in the match against Jared Donaldson and the Frenchman had to show considerable heart to remain alive in the US Open.
He does seem to save his best tennis for the Grand Slams at the moment although 2017 has been a disappointment in those tournaments after back to back Quarter Finals in the last two Slams of 2016. It does mean Pouille still has considerable points to defend here in New York City, but I think he can take heart from the way he beat Donaldson especially with the way the draw has opened up.
This won't be an easy match though as he faces the talented, but extremely inconsistent, Mikhail Kukushkin in the Third Round. The Kazakhstan player has come through three Qualifiers and also upset David Ferrer in the main draw all the while dropping just a single set in the first five matches he has played here.
There wasn't many signs that Kukushkin was ready for this kind of tournament after back to back early losses in his last two hard court tournaments. However there has been an improvement in the return game in 2017 on this surface and at the main ATP level which does make Kukushkin a threat if Pouille is not feeling 100% after a difficult Second Round match.
Kukushkin has been returning just a little bit better which is making a big difference for him, although you can't ignore the fact he is 4-12 on the hard courts against top 50 World Ranked players over the last eighteen months. That includes a four set loss to Pouille here at the US Open last year and I think we may see something similar here, especially with the better performances Kukushkin has shown in 2017 and here this week.
I would still think Pouille will be too good over the course of the match, but having a small interest in this one ending in four sets in favour of the Frenchman is the call.
Sam Querrey - 6.5 games v Radu Albot: The first reaction you would have to this spread is that it is far too many games being asked of a limited returner like Sam Querrey. However Querrey has been seeing the ball pretty big over the last couple of months which has seen him produce some strong wins and I do think he is facing an overmatched opponent in this one.
All credit has to be given to Radu Albot for coming through the Qualifiers and then winning two main draw matches, but Yen-Hsun Lu will be going home kicking himself that he didn't win their Second Round contest. Albot has thus taken advantage of a bit of luck and a relatively kind draw to move through to the Third Round of a Grand Slam for the first time in his career.
It is a surprise that it has come on the hard courts in New York where Albot had three successive First Round losses previously. His overall numbers on the hard courts have been far from impressive and the majority of those have been played at the Challenger level which just highlights how unexpected his run has been.
He is winning under 60% of service points on the hard courts and that is not going to cut it at this level. Now he has to face the home crowd and an opponent who is perhaps at his most confident after reaching the Semi Final at Wimbledon and winning a hard court title in Los Cabos over the last six weeks.
Sam Querrey has also won at least 42% of return points in his two wins in the US Open against Gilles Simon and Dudi Sela, two players whose serve can be compared to Albot's. That is better than his season returning stats on the hard courts, but Querrey's 39% return points won on the surface is decent enough when dropping to the level of an opponent who is more accustomed to the Challenger level.
I wouldn't be that surprised if Albot is able to make four awkward returns to break the Querrey serve, but overall I would anticipate the American has the majority of the chances. As long as he continues returning to the level he has shown throughout 2017 (winning 6% more points on return) then I would imagine he is going to record another routine win.
Querrey has covered this number of games in both wins at the US Open so far and I will look for him to record a 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 win in the Third Round.
Mischa Zverev-John Isner over 39.5 games: Most people would have expected to see 'Zverev' in the Third Round draw, but if you were told only one of the two brothers were to make this stage then not many would have picked Mischa. It is big brother who keeps the family name alive in the draw after Alexander was beaten surprisingly in the Second Round, but Mischa Zverev is not nearly as favoured as his younger sibling was.
This is a very difficult match for Zverev in the Third Round as he opens the evening session on Arthur Ashe and faces a home favourite in John Isner. The latter will be thinking this is a real opportunity this year to make the Final of his home Grand Slam, perhaps the only one he will have in the remainder of his career, and so there is some pressure on Isner to deal with.
Isner has had two impressive wins in the US Open already, but those were played without the expectation he will have now. Since then Alexander Zverev has opened up the bottom half of the draw and Isner's Semi Final run in Cincinnati shows that he is capable of going deep in the tournament here.
He does have to beat someone who has recorded two wins over Isner this season including a long five set win at the Australian Open. John Isner won the first two sets against Mischa Zverev in the Second Round back in January but was then beaten 9-7 in a final set decider, while he has also lost to this opponent on the clay courts in Geneva.
The hard courts in New York should suit Isner more than Zverev, but the latter has the kind of game that can trouble a poor returner like the one he faces and that makes him dangerous. More of an issue for Zverev has to be the fact he has already played back to back five set matches so the biggest concern for the German has to be fatigue going into this Third Round encounter.
Tie-breakers look to be the order of the day when these two meet especially when two servers as effective as Isner and Zverev are meeting. It helps that neither is exactly a supreme returner and the only concern for this total number of games is that one of the players falls by the wayside in straight sets.
They did create 33 break points between them when they met at the Australian Open so there is a chance that this match is a lot more simple than I am anticipating if more than 4 breaks of serve are converted. However it does feel serving is going to be the best weapon for both players and I hope the first two sets are split to almost ensure we get a chance to cover this number of games.
Carla Suarez Navarro + 2.5 games v Ekaterina Makarova: It has been a strange 2017 season for Ekaterina Makarova who was perhaps dealing with a deeper injury issue than she ever let on in the first half of the season. She has moved into the Third Round at the US Open with an impressive win over Caroline Wozniacki, who has had some strong success at the US Open in the past, and her form has been really good over the last few weeks.
That is highlighted by the fact that Makarova has won almost half of her 23 match wins in 2017 since moving back onto the hard courts after Wimbledon. That includes winning a title in Washington and only the in-form Lucie Safarova and Sloane Stephens have been able to stop the Russian.
In that time Makarova has beaten Wozniacki and added her to the likes of Simona Halep, Johanna Konta and Angelique Kerber, although it may be telling that all of those players have exited the US Open before the Third Round. This match will also be a different kind of challenge for Makarova as she wasn't favoured to win many of the matches she has won and the expectation has changed against Carla Suarez Navarro.
On the hard courts you would think Suarez Navarro is vulnerable with a serve that can be attacked, but the mental advantage belongs to the Spaniard who has beaten Makarova four times in a row. That includes on the hard courts, clay courts and in June on the grass courts which suggests this could be a match up problem for the favoured player.
Suarez Navarro has won her two matches here effectively and she has to feel she can beat an opponent she has six out of eight previous times. The form prior to the US Open was not that inspiring though which does raise some red flags, but this still looks like a lot of games being given to the Spaniard and taking a set may be enough to ensure a cover at the worst.
I think Suarez Navarro could come close to the win too, although she is guilty of some really poor performances when things spiral out of her control. Hopefully that won't be the case here in what feels a good match up for her with the backhand capable of hanging with the Makarova forehand, and I will take the games being offered.
Sloane Stephens - 1.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: This is an amazing opportunity for two of the feel-good comeback stories on the WTA Tour in 2017. Ashleigh Barty returned to the Tour after deciding she had had enough of tennis and moved into the cricket world, while Sloane Stephens is off a long-term injury and making the best use of her Protected Ranking.
Both players have to look at this match as a great opportunity to reach the second week of the US Open and I think this could end up being the best match of the day for the neutral fan. It should be highly competitive and the layers feel the same with very little between them in the markets.
Barty has been in good form with a stand out win over Venus Williams the highlight of her six weeks on the hard courts, while a three set loss to Garbine Muguruza is hardly a crime considering the form the Spaniard has been in. Ten wins and two losses will give anyone confidence so Barty has to be feeling good about her game with an under-rated serve and real power off the ground which makes her a dangerous player to face.
Being in good form is something Sloane Stephens knows all about and she came into the US Open draw as another dangerous floater in the draw. She reached back to back Semi Finals at the Premier Events in Toronto and Cincinnati and her losses have come against the likes of Caroline Wozniacki and Simona Halep, two players who have decent movement and what I would consider better than Barty's.
Those movers weren't a problem when Stephens dismissed Dominika Cibulkova in the Second Round here and I do think the American is going to be tough to stop here. Her own serve is a solid weapon, but Stephens has been seeing the ball like beachball and her returns have been mighty effective the last few weeks.
It is the return that has helped Stephens win her two matches here so far and I think that will be the key element in getting past Barty on Friday. I would be really surprised if this isn't another match that needs to go the distance for Stephens with her Australian opponent in good nick too, but I will look for the American to have the better movement which enables her to just steal a point or two for a 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 win.
Magdalena Rybarikova-Garbine Muguruza under 18.5 games: A rematch of the Wimbledon Semi Final from July is taking place in the Third Round at the US Open and I do wonder if the mental scars have healed for Magdalena Rybarikova. On that day everything that could go wrong did go wrong, but now she is facing a Garbine Muguruza who arguably looks like the strongest player in the draw.
That is different to Wimbledon when the confidence was perhaps not where it is now, and I think Muguruza is looking very dangerous in the draw. After a couple of Quarter Final runs, Muguruza won the title in Cincinnati and she has dropped just 13 games in her last four matches which includes playing Karolina Pliskova and Simona Halep.
The serve has been a monster weapon for Muguruza in those four wins as none of her opponents were able to win more than 32% of the returns and it does set up the rest of her game. When Muguruza is feeling good, she can then begin to exert immense pressure with the power of her returns and I do think Rybarikova could be on the back foot much like she was when they played at Wimbledon.
Rybarikova didn't Qualify for the main draw at her last two tournaments before winning back to back matches in the US Open. There hasn't been a lot of hard court success to fall back upon like there was the grass court success prior to Wimbledon and I do think Rybarikova could really struggle here.
Her opponent is being asked to cover a lot of games, but Muguruza is more than capable of doing that. With her form as it is, I think the Spaniard can really put the hammer down on Rybarikova again and I am going to look for a 6-4, 6-1 kind of win for Muguruza, but will look for the total games to remain unsurpassed at a big price.
Maria Sharapova - 6.5 games v Sofia Kenin: It is perhaps not the most surprising thing to see Maria Sharapova have her ups and downs in her first two matches back in a Grand Slam after a long lay off serving a suspension. Having missed out at the French Open due to her World Ranking and Wimbledon due to injury, Sharapova has made the best use of the Wild Card that was granted to her in the US Open.
Beating Simona Halep has opened up her Quarter of the draw, while the exits of Johanna Konta have helped too. A tougher than expected win over Timea Babos wasn't a big surprised as Sharapova struggled with the new expectations around her, but she is not facing a huge hitter like Babos in the Third Round.
It can be argued that Sofia Kenin is the weakest of the players Sharapova has faced so far and being under the lights on Arthur Ashe is clearly a place that Sharapova has enjoyed with an unbeaten record in the evening session. For Kenin it will be a completely different experience and a difficult one for a young player who spends the majority of her time at the levels below the main WTA Tour.
Kenin has played well at the lower levels on the hard courts with ITF title successes under her belt but this is a huge step up both mentally and competitively. The two wins so far this week have come against players far below the standard that Sharapova can produce and the Russian's numbers on her return have been strong enough to think she can cover this spread, even though it is a big number.
The serve has been much better than I expected from Sharapova but even more impressive is how well she has been returning. Before this week she was winning 47% of the return points which is going to create immense pressure, and she has surpassed that number in her two wins at the US Open.
That kind of pressure is not something Kenin will have been accustomed to nor playing under the lights with the whole tournament focused on you. It could inspire Kenin as it has for others so far this week, but I think this may be the match where Sharapova is perhaps at her most comfortable as she moves into the second week of a Grand Slam for the first time since the Australian Open in January 2016.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov-Kyle Edmund Over 38.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille Win 3-1 @ 4.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Sam Querrey - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev-John Isner Over 39.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Magdalena Rybarikova-Garbine Muguruza Under 18.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
US Open Update: 17-20, - 8.02 Units (73 Units Staked, - 10.98% Yield)
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