College Football Week 6 Picks 2016 (October 7-8)

Last week was a tremendously poor one for my picks from the College Football Week 5 season and has made a big impact on the season totals. I am fully expecting to bounce back this week, but I was frustrated with myself for getting the wrong teams down after looking at some of those I excluded from my shortlist.

You have to take the rough with the smooth though and there are still many weeks to go in the 2016 season to turn things around beginning with Week 6 as the Conference Games kick in.

I don't usually like the Midweek games which tend to have some funky things happen to them, but I am going to begin with a Friday night game for the second week in a row with the majority of the picks scheduled to take place on Saturday. Of course Hurricane Matthew might have something to say about that as it hits the East Coast of the United States so some of the College Games could be rescheduled or moved to Sunday.


Clemson Tigers @ Boston College Pick: The one thing that concerned me in this game is how the Clemson Tigers are going to be able to focus on the Boston College Eagles after that hugely emotional win over the Louisville Cardinals last week. Next week the Tigers host the North Carolina State Wolfpack who are likely the biggest threat to Clemson winning the ACC Atlantic Division at this point of the season.

However the Tigers have had a really difficult time against the Boston College Eagles when they last played here two seasons ago when coming through with a four point win and that should focus this squad. Clemson have some really big aims this season having lost in the National Championship Game last season and their win over Louisville suggests they can achieve those aims in what is a surprisingly strong ACC Conference.

It is a big number when you think how well the Boston College Defensive unit have played this season although the Eagles were blown out by the Virginia Tech Hokies, albeit on the road. The Eagles might be holding teams to just 2.3 yards per carry on the season, but they couldn't contain the Hokies and now they face a Clemson team that have a Quarter Back who is capable of moving the chains with his legs as well as his arm.

Virginia Tech had Jerod Evans do that when he threw for 5 Touchdown passes and also had 48 yards on the ground in the win over Boston College. Deshaun Watson is capable of replicating those numbers behind an Offensive Line which has protected him so well and given the Quarter Back a chance to make some really big plays down the field.

Boston College are a team that can get considerable pressure up front, but I am not sure they are going to have a lot of success getting to Watson and I think Clemson are going to be able to score at least 26 points for the fifth time in a row.

That doesn't really leap off the page when asking Clemson to cover this many points on the road, but that number might be enough for the Tigers in this game. The Eagles have produced some big numbers in their last two games against overmatched opponents, but they only managed 444 total Offensive yards against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech combined and Clemson's might be the best Defensive unit in the ACC.

They did use a really mobile Quarter Back last year to help, but Boston College have gone with Patrick Towles this time around and will be relying on his arm. I think that has been part of the reason that the Eagles have struggled to move the ball on the ground and they are not likely to have a lot of success doing that in this one.

It will heap the pressure on Towles to make the big plays from third and long situations and that won't be easy against a Defensive Secondary that have given up a little over 150 passing yards per game. That hasn't been made up against overmatched teams, but Clemson have played the likes of Auburn and Louisville and Towles might be back under the pressure that saw him throw 4 Interceptions in his first three games of the season.

Boston College have covered the last three times they have played Clemson and this is a good spot in which they are facing them. However I simply don't see the Eagles being able to score a lot of points in this one and the Tigers could have a couple of key turnovers which helps them pull away and cover what did initially feel a lot of points to overcome.


Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ NC State Wolfpack Pick: There were some real ambitions that Notre Dame Fighting Irish could force themselves into a Play Off position, but two losses to Michigan State and Duke have ended those hopes already. Brian Kelly is going to be on the hot seat for the remainder of the 2016 season and has made some moves on the staff to make sure his Notre Dame team can end with a much more positive feeling than they have started.

They visit the NC State Wolfpack on Saturday in what looks a really good game of Football with the Wolfpack recovering from their surprising loss to the East Carolina Pirates to move to 3-1. The Wolfpack can't overlook this game, but they have two huge Conference games after this one when they visit the Clemson Tigers and Louisville Cardinals, plus you have to say the Fighting Irish are a big enough game to have the players want to make a statement.

It is a balanced Offense that has helped the Wolfpack bounce back from a loss and they will be looking to use that to keep the Fighting Irish out of sync in this one. Notre Dame's Defensive unit has been very poor this season and underachieved in the first five games and a big reason the team are 2-3, but there were signs in the second half in the win over Syracuse that they might have found some big solutions to their issues.

That will not likely be enough to stop the Wolfpack who are averaging 40 points per game and who have almost 300 passing yards and over 200 rushing yards per game. Ryan Finley came in from Boise State and has played well as the starting Quarter Back with 9 Touchdown passes and no Interceptions, but this is a very difficult portion of their schedule.

Finley should have time to make his plays from Quarter Back and I don't think Notre Dame are going to be able to slow down the Wolfpack Offense as much as they would like. The Fighting Irish have also struggled to slow the run, but the second half performance against the Orange and some of the struggles against the East Carolina Pirates suggests Notre Dame can have some success on that side of the ball.

This Offense is certainly the most difficult one that NC State's Defensive unit will have played so far this season. DeShone Kizer responded to some of the criticisms from Coach Kelly with a big game against Syracuse, having a career high passing yards, and this is a team that might be underrated coming into this week.

It has the hallmarks of a really close game between these teams and the weather conditions likely mean it will be tough for the Offenses to move the chains with consistency. However I do think Notre Dame should not be coming in as an underdog here against a team that have yet to prove they are for real and I am going to take the Fighting Irish with the points. Notre Dame are now 8-4 against the spread as the road underdog with Brian Kelly as Head Coach and I think they keep this one close and potentially win outright.


TCU Horned Frogs @ Kansas Jayhawks Pick: There was an expectation that the TCU Horned Frogs would take a step back in the 2016 season, but they would have hoped to be better than 3-2 going into Week 6. They are looking to bounce back from a disappointing home loss to the Oklahoma Sooners although the coaching staff have made it clear that the Big 12 is far from lost.

It would be a big surprise if the Horned Frogs are not back to winning ways this week when they visit the Kansas Jayhawks, especially as the latter have come off back to back blow out losses. However the Jayhawks have matched up well with TCU since they have been in the same Conference and their four games have seen TCU win each, but only by a combined 34 points.

Kenny Hill has played well at Quarter Back since transferring over from Texas A&M and he looks to have the perfect match up to pull up his numbers even more. Hill had 449 passing yards in the loss against the Sooners with 5 Touchdown passes thrown, and now faces a Secondary that just gave up almost 550 yards through the air.

The Quarter Back should be well protected and I expect Hill will make some big plays through the air, although he might not need to with TCU likely being able to run the ball very easily on Saturday. Kyle Hicks should be able to keep the Horned Frogs in short yardage situations all day and I can't see TCU having too many issues moving the chains in this one and scoring Touchdowns at the end of their drives.

Even with that in mind, this still looks a lot of points for the Horned Frogs to cover when you think they have to outscore Kansas by over four converted Touchdowns. The Jayhawks aren't very good and they haven't played well as the home underdog with David Beaty as their Head Coach, but they are taking on a TCU Defense that have given away plenty of yards and points this season.

While the snaps have been split between two Quarter Backs, it looks like Beaty will go with Ryan Willis on Saturday and he does have 3 Touchdown passes with the sole Interception through the season. Willis will have to deal with the pressure that TCU have been able to get on the Quarter Back up front, but he should be able to make some big plays with his arm against a TCU team that have allowed at least 40 points in three of five games and have allowed some big numbers through the air.

The pressure will be on Willis not just because of the solid pass rush that TCU have generated but also because he won't have much support from a running game. Kansas have averaged just 91 yards per game on the ground and that is not likely to be improved on much in this one so Willis will have to make mistake free football to ensure Kansas stay within this big number.

TCU are dangerous coming off that loss to the Sooners but they are 5-12 against the spread as the away favourite in recent seasons. With the struggles against Kansas in mind too, I do think the Jayhawks are getting too many points and I will back them here. It might need a late Kansas garbage time Touchdown to get in the number, but I have calculated TCU as around a 22 point winner so getting almost a Touchdown more on the spread looks too much to ignore.


Tennessee Volunteers @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: Two unbeaten teams in the SEC meet on Saturday, although the Tennessee Volunteers look in a much better position to be playing in the Championship Game in December. The reason for that is they have beaten their main rivals in the SEC East during this unbeaten start, but the Texas A&M Aggies will have to see off the likes of the Alabama Crimson Tide if they are going to win the SEC West.

In a quirk of the schedule, both the Volunteers and Aggies will be facing the Crimson Tide in their next game, although the Aggies will be heading into a bye week first. Both teams have opened the season at 5-0, although Tennessee have had a couple of close escapes albeit while managing a tougher schedule than the Aggies.

It has been important for Kevin Sumlin who had been under pressure as the Aggies Head Coach heading into the 2016 season having been linked with a number of other Head Coaching vacancies in recent seasons. No one will be getting excited just yet as Texas A&M have finished 8-5 in each of the last two seasons despite opening those years at 5-0 both times so this 5-0 record will only feel good if they can knock off the Volunteers.

Texas A&M have to be respected with wins at Auburn and South Carolina already on the board and they can thank a very strong running game headed up by Quarter Back Trevor Knight and Running Back Trayveon Williams. This will be challenged by the Tennessee Volunteers Defensive Line who have played well all season and controlling the line of scrimmage is going to be a key to this entire game.

The ability to establish the run has meant Knight has been under very little pressure when he does throw the ball down the field although this Tennessee Secondary have played well even with limited pressure up front. The key has been the ability to turn the ball over and I have no doubt that they will play a big part in the outcome of this game too.

The Volunteers will have to try and match what Texas A&M are able to do Offensively and they can't afford another slow start as they have had in a couple of games this season. Tennessee should be able to establish the run in this one which is going to be important for them to make sure they give Joshua Dobbs the time he needs to throw the ball. Jalen Hurd should be able to keep the team in third and manageable against a Defensive unit who have created plenty of havoc in opponents backfield all season.

They do get significant pressure up front so Dobbs is expected to be put under pressure by the pass rush when in third and long situations and he also needs to make sure he looks after the ball effectively. Overall the Texas A&M numbers look good Defensively, but they haven't been as effective when facing SEC opponents and I do think this Volunteers Offense can have success in this one too.

Texas A&M have played well as the home favourite in 2016, but they haven't been at their best in this spot in recent seasons and have at least one fortunate cover to their name. This will be the first time Tennessee are the underdog this season and I do think they are getting plenty of points considering they have won 11 games in a row and have the confidence of winning close matches.

Having a full Touchdown worth of points is very appealing and I think Tennessee are still the better team despite their inconsistent performances at time. I will back the Volunteers to cover in this game.


Syracuse Orange @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons Pick: Hurricane Matthew is expected to have a big impact on the NFL and College Football games to be played this weekend including the postponement of some. While this part of North Carolina might not have the full effect of the weather conditions, it is unlikely to be a great day to throw the ball for either the Syracuse Orange and Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

That might work in favour of Wake Forest as it should mean both teams are looking to run the ball and make sure they limit any turnovers they have. The Demon Deacons did lose for the first time last week to drop to 4-1, but there is still every chance they could have their best finish in the ACC Atlantic in recent seasons with a strong second half of the season.

It does mean Wake Forest won't want to drop a game like this one against Syracuse who have lost three of their last four games. The Orange have struggled to prevent teams from scoring points against them and I think the Wake Forest Demon Deacons can take advantage of things on that side of the ball.

The key is going to be the likely weather conditions which will make it tough to throw the ball. Wake Forest have been able to establish the run in 2016 and they will be facing a team that has given up over 200 yards per game on the ground. Matt Colburn and Cade Carney are the main threats to run the ball, but John Wolford is also capable of doing that at Quarter Back and he can make a few short throws against a team that has struggled to defend the pass to keep the running lanes open.

On the other hand Syracuse have not been able to run the ball effectively and are facing a Wake Forest Defensive Line who have allowed just 3.3 yards per carry. With Syracuse moving the ball at just 3.2 yards per carry themselves, I do think they are going to find it tougher to move the chains in the conditions we will likely see as they won't have an easy day throwing even against a Secondary that is far from a shut down one.

The Demon Deacons can also get a decent pass rush up front could put Eric Dungey who has played well, but who is now facing a tough day to throw the ball in his up-temp Offense.

My concern is that Wake Forest have not played well as a home favourite, but this looks a good day for them to play and establish their style of play on the Syracuse Orange and I expect the Demon Deacons to win and cover.


Florida State Seminoles @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: The Florida State Seminoles might have dominated the recent head to head with inter-State rivals the Miami Hurricanes, but the layers feel there has been a shift this time around. This time Florida State come in with a poor 3-2 record which has already ended their hopes of making it to the Play Offs compared with the Miami Hurricanes who are 4-0 and looking to be the pick of the ACC Coastal.

You have to respect a couple of the wins the Hurricanes have produced, but we are going to learn a lot about them over the next four weeks when they face the Seminoles, North Carolina, visit Virginia Tech and then visit Notre Dame. Mark Richt is in his first season in charge of the Hurricanes and had considerable success with the Georgia Bulldogs over the years as he looks to guide his team to a ACC Championship win which would send them into the Play Offs.

The Seminoles might not have a lot of hope of making the Championship Game having gone 0-2 in the Conference already, but they would love to play spoiler for their rivals. Florida State are certainly better than the record may indicate, but Defensively they have been a mess and need to improve considerably if they are going to match up with Miami who have looked balance Offensively.

Brad Kaaya is a Quarter Back that is almost certainly going to be playing at the next level, but it could be a tough weekend to throw the ball effectively when you think of the weather conditions expected in Florida. However Kaaya has been able to lean on a running game led by Mark Walton and that could be key this weekend against the Seminoles who simply haven't been able to stop the run against the Offenses they have faced so far.

If the conditions are as expected, Florida State can commit to more men stopping the run, but the key for the Seminoles is finding a way to challenge a Miami Defense that has played very well. The Hurricanes have not exactly played really strong Offenses, but they have faced the triple option run by Georgia Tech and showed they can slow the run enough to be an effective unit.

Dalvin Cook might have something to say about that for the Seminoles and he has to find a way to establish the run to protect his young Quarter Back who could be put under immense pressure from the Miami pass rush. Deondre Francois hasn't played badly at all from Quarter Back, but the conditions will likely mean he needs to lean on Cook all the more this week and try and get into a position where he is throwing from third and short if he needs to make plays with his arm.

I have a lot of respect for the way Miami have started this season, but this is the first big challenge for them to see how 'for real' they actually are. Florida State might only be 3-2 but they are battle hardened when you think of the games they have played and I like the Seminoles with the points this week.

They are 3-0 against the spread when coming off a loss over the last two seasons and games between these rivals have been tight, although Florida State have managed to win six in a row in the series. The Seminoles are getting the points this week and I am going to back them to keep this one close.


Auburn Tigers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: Neither the Auburn Tigers or the Mississippi State Bulldogs are expected to challenge in the tough SEC West, but the winner in Week 6 will have a chance to at least keep their hopes alive. On the other hand the losing team will be out of luck in the Conference race and will instead be focusing on becoming Bowl eligible through the rest of the way.

Auburn come into the game with a 3-2 record and their losses to the Clemson Tigers and Texas A&M Aggies have to be respected with both of those squads looking strong. The Bulldogs don't have the same losses on their record at 2-2 with a defeat to the LSU Tigers respectable, but the home loss to South Alabama won't be easily forgotten.

The Bulldogs will be looking for their dual-threat Quarter Back Nick Fitzgerald to make the big plays here and help Mississippi State establish the run. That has been a surprising weakness for Auburn's Defensive Line this season and I am expecting them to improve on the current numbers which have seen them give 4.3 yards per carry.

It will be tested by the Mississippi State Bulldogs this week and will be key for Auburn in trying to slow down this team. The Secondary haven't played badly and Auburn have gotten some decent pass rush pressure up front, but they will have to focus on Fitzgerald who is mobile enough to make plays with his legs when things break down in front of him.

The line of scrimmage is going to be important on both sides of the ball because the Auburn Tigers have the best rushing stats in the SEC but are facing a Mississippi State Defensive Line which has allowed just 3.5 yards per carry. The team that gains control of that battle is likely going to win this game, but the Bulldogs have overachieved in their first four games and I think they will be given a much tougher test by Auburn.

Sean White has been able to make some plays with his arm behind the running threat that Auburn have produced and he should be able to make some against this Bulldogs Secondary. That should keep the chains moving for the Tigers in this big Conference game.

Mississippi State have won three of the last four in the series, but I think Auburn can get the better of them in this one. I do think the Bulldogs will make some big plays, but I don't think they are quite as good as Auburn although turnovers are going to be important in this one. I just feel Auburn can control the line of scrimmage on both sides better than Mississippi State can and that will make the difference in this tight game.


Oklahoma Sooners v Texas Longhorns Pick: Bob Stoops and Charlie Strong will guide the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns into the Red River Rivalry this weekend feeling a little warmer than they would want to. Both are sitting on the hot seat after poor starts to the 2016 season and so a win in this big game will at least ease some of the pressure that has to be building.

After reaching the Play Offs last season, Oklahoma came into the season as the favourite in the Big 12 which would perhaps lead to another shot at the National Championship. However they have opened the season with a 2-2 record and that is thanks to a win in Week 5 at the TCU Horned Frogs with their losses to Houston and Ohio State hard to overcome.

It looked to be a much more positive feeling for the Texas Longhorns who knocked off Notre Dame during a 2-0 start to the season. Since then they have lost back to back games including being blown out by the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Week 5 and that has led to Charlie Strong deciding he will call the Defensive plays in his last shot at redemption in Austin.

There is a lot at stake for both teams as they head to Dallas for this game and I think it is going to be a lot closer than the layers seem to think. The Sooners come into the game as a double digit favourite but they have lost two of their last three games against Texas and I believe the Longhorns have enough Offensive output to stay with them better than they did against the Cowboys last week.

Strong has taken over a Defensive unit that have allowed at least 47 points in three of their four games this season. It will be tough to slow down Baker Mayfield and the Sooners Offensive unit who are averaging just under 40 points per game on the season and it looks to be up to Mayfield to make the plays with his arm in this one.

That is because despite the poor amount of points being given up, Texas' Defensive Line have played well and limited what teams have been able to churn out on the ground. Some of that might be down to the fact that it has been easy to throw the ball against them, and this is a big challenge for Texas who have to face a strong Running Back unit this week.

It will be key for Mayfield as his Offensive Line have not been that good in pass protection despite the big numbers he has put up. The Texas Secondary might have had a hard time, but the Longhorns have gotten pressure up front and can have an impact on the Sooners Offensive output in this one.

Texas will feel they can have an impact in this game Offensively having played well on that side of the ball for the majority of the season. D'Onta Foreman might have a tough match up running the ball on paper, but the Sooners have not been as strong protecting the run as the numbers have shown because recent games have seen them give up a few more yards per carry than the overall season put together.

It would be huge for the Longhorns to establish Foreman because it does mean they can use the two Quarter Backs on their roster with Tyrone Swoopes mainly in for the short yardage plays. Shane Buechele has been well protected by his Offensive Line and he looks to have a good match up against an Oklahoma Secondary that have allowed almost 300 passing yards per game.

That does make me think the Longhorns can stay within this double digit spread that has been set in favour of Oklahoma. The Longhorns have covered in their last three Red River Rivalry game and each time as the underdog while winning two of those games outright.

Oklahoma are now 0-5 against the spread in recent games played on a neutral field compared with Texas who are 3-1 against the spread in the same situation. They do look to be getting too many points in this one and I will back Texas to cover.


Washington Huskies @ Oregon Ducks Pick: The Washington Huskies were picked as the pre-season favourite to win the Pac-12 North but their struggles against the Arizona Wildcats suggested that might have been too much to ask. However Chris Petersen guided the Boise State programme to considerable success and led Washington to a crushing win over the Stanford Cardinal on Friday in Week 5.

That puts Washington in a strong position in the Division to reach the Championship Game which would also put them in a position to get into the Play Off in December. They certainly will be trying to ignore the fact that the Oregon Ducks are 2-3 this season and already dropped to 0-2 in the Conference having struggled against them in recent years.

The strength of the Washington is the Defensive unit which is coming off a game where they shut down Christian McCaffrey and they are now facing an up-tempo Oregon Offense that has averaged 6.2 yards per carry. However they are going to find it tough to establish the run when you think of some of the struggles they have had throwing the ball and I think the Huskies are going to be able to earn enough penetration from their Defensive Line to force the Ducks to look for their Quarter Back to make big plays.

That is not going to be an easy task for Justin Herbert who is expected to be the first freshman Quarter Back to start for Oregon since 1983 as they look likely to replace Dakota Prucop. Herbert will be under intense pressure from the Washington pass rush who have been a disruptive force all season and that pressure has seen them lead the way in turnovers earned.

It will be up to Oregon to try and match the Defensive output that the Huskies are likely to produce but I am not sure they are going to be capable of doing that. Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman should have a really big day running the ball for Washington against this porous Oregon Defensive Line who have given up 5.0 yards per carry on the season but who have seen that number increase to 5.5 yards per carry in their last three games against Nebraska, Colorado and surprisingly Washington State.

Even trying to load the box won't be an answer as Washington have Jake Browning playing very well at Quarter Back and the Oregon Secondary have already been struggling. Oregon have given up 280 passing yards per game this season so Browning should be able to have his way whenever he decides to throw although the Quarter Back might not need to do so much with the Huskies likely able to run all over Oregon.

You can't ignore that this looks to be a big number for Washington to cover when you think they are on the road. However Oregon have struggled in their last three games which have all ended in losses and this is a Washington Defensive unit that should be able to make enough big plays on that side of the ball to allow their team to pull away for a double digit win on the road.

MY PICKS: Clemson Tigers - 17 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Kansas Jayhawks + 28.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles + 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Auburn Tigers - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Coral (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns + 11.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Washington Huskies - 9 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 5: 2-7-1, - 5.14 Units (10 Units Staked, - 51.40% Yield)
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.59 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.78% Yield)
Week 3: 4-6, - 2.23 Units (10 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
Week 2: 4-5, - 1.32 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.67% Yield)
Week 1: 6-5, + 0.58 Units (11 Units Staked, + 5.27% Yield)

Season 2016: 22-26-1, - 5.52 Units (49 Units Staked, - 0.01% Yield)

Season 2015: 87-77-2, + 2.77 Units (166 Units Staked, + 1.67% Yield)
Season 2014: 75-82-2, - 13.39 Units (172 Units Staked, - 7.78% Yield)

Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)

Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)

Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2016 (October 6-8)

The World Cup Qualifiers take centre stage for the next few days and all eyes in the English media will be on Gareth Southgate who will be desperate for England to make easy work of Malta on Sunday before the much bigger tests against Slovenia and Scotland to come.

Other home nations like Northern Ireland, Wales, Scotland and the Republic of Ireland will all be hoping for positive results over the coming days when they play two World Cup Qualifiers to almost have a third of the overall Qualifiers in the books. You can't earn Qualification now, but you can certainly lose it so it is a big week for every nation taking part in World Cup Qualifiers.

I am going to split the picks by the two Rounds so the 'Weekend Football' thread will cover Thursday through to Saturday and the 'Midweek Football' thread will begin on Sunday and cover through to Tuesday. It makes it the clearest way to sort through the picks without the thread becoming too large and will make it easier to understand when I have picked a team and when I might not have.


Last weekend was a terrible opening to October as I couldn't catch a break with missed opportunities preventing the picks continuing the momentum from September. I did warn about that happening, but that doesn't mean I am still not very disappointed with the opening weekend and I am expecting much better from the World Cup Qualifiers over the next few days.

I certainly don't want it to get worse after a solid start to the new season in the first two months and so the next three days is going to be important for me.


Republic of Ireland v Georgia Pick: The 2-2 draw in Serbia is a huge result for the Republic of Ireland who arguably came into this set of Qualifiers as the fourth best team in the section. They will believe they have enough to split the likes of Austria and Wales, but the next few days are huge for Ireland who can't afford a single slip up ahead of the trip to Vienna next month.

It will be far from easy against Georgia who have shown they have improved defensively from the last set of Qualifiers. They might have been beaten easily in Poland, but Georgia lost narrowly in Scotland, Ireland and Germany and the home team are not likely to ever score a lot of goals to get away from any opposition they face.

I do think the Republic of Ireland will win this game, but they are being asked to cover too much when it comes to winning on the handicaps too. They have won 6 of 9 home Qualifiers which suggests they will find a way to break down the Georgia defence, but I think they might need to bide their time.

I wouldn't be surprised if they needed to wait until the second half to break down Georgia as they had to in the last set of Qualifiers when hosting them. However I think the better value might be simply backing Ireland to win by the narrowest of margins as 4 of their 6 Qualifiers against Georgia have ended with Ireland coming through with a one goal margin of victory.

They are just looking for the three points in this one and the Republic of Ireland could be forced to do that again and that has to be worth a small interest.


Ecuador v Chile Pick: There are still plenty of points for both Ecuador and Chile to earn over the next thirteen months in these South American World Cup Qualifiers, but that doesn't take away the importance of this fixture. Both nations are trying to reverse some recent poor form in the World Cup Qualifiers and I think both teams are going to put together some attacking football to try and earn those three points.

Goals haven't been an issue for either Ecuador or Chile in their games, but the worry has been the amount they have conceded in their recent home/away games respectively in the World Cup Qualifiers.

Chile have conceded at least two goals in 4 of their last 5 away Qualifiers, but they have also scored at leas two goals in 4 of their last 6. On the other hand Ecuador had scored at least twice in every home Qualifier before being beaten by Brazil and now they have conceded at least twice in their last couple of games here.

Games between these nations have also produced goals with 3 of the last 4 ending with at least three shared out and I am surprised we are getting odds against quotes on there being at least three returned in this one.


Uruguay v Venezuela Pick: Recent games between Uruguay and Venezuela have been very competitive and it is a concern for me that Venezuela have been able to keep things tight against a team that have Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani to call upon.

A concern because I do think Uruguay are the better team and they have been playing very well in World Cup Qualifiers at home in recent months. They have been scoring goals for fun at home and Venezuela are a team that have conceded plenty of goals away from home.

It does feel like this is a game that Uruguay should dominate, but they have to make sure they are not gifting Venezuela a way into the match. Uruguay have failed to win their last 3 home World Cup Qualifiers against Venezuela, but might be catching them at the right time with the goals being scored.

With the goals being conceded, I can't help feel that Uruguay can become the latest team to beat Venezuela by at least a couple of goals and I will back them to do that at odds against.


Paraguay v Colombia Pick: There is a clear advantage to home teams in the South American World Cup Qualifiers and I think Paraguay will feel they can use that against most of the nations in this section. However they have not enjoyed recent matches against Colombia and I think this could be quite the entertaining game between these teams who are only a point apart in the World Cup Qualifying Group.

Paraguay will point to the fact they have scored at least twice in their last 3 home games in the World Cup Qualifiers, but they have also conceded at least once in those games. Colombia have also scored in 3 straight away Qualifiers but have also conceded at least twice in back to back games on their travels.

Goals might be the order of the day again like they were when the teams met in the United States in the Copa America and I can see the importance of three points meaning both teams try to win the game.

Colombia might have the edge having beaten Paraguay four times in a row, but I am leaning towards there being at least three goals required to find a winner in this one. Both teams have shown they can score and concede goals in home/away games respectively in the World Cup Qualifiers and the odds against quotes for at least three goals looks too big.


Peru v Argentina Pick: This has been a tough away game for Argentina in recent World Cup Qualifiers and they are going to have to do this one without Lionel Messi. There are still enough quality players in the final third to help Argentina in this one, but they will have to be careful against a Peru side that have been scoring goals at home.

Peru have scored a fair few goals at home in the Qualifiers, but Argentina have done the same. With both teams also looking vulnerable at the back, I think these teams might have the ability to combine for at least three goals in this one.

Peru need to get forward to remain in contention for the World Cup Finals and Argentina are hoping to bounce back from a 2-2 draw with Venezuela. That should mean both are aiming for the three points and I can't see why either team will sit back unless defending a lead late in the game.

I do think both teams will score though and then it is a case of looking for a winner and backing at least three goals to be shared out at odds against looks a decent runner.


Belgium v Bosnia-Herzegovina Pick: I am not a big fan of the appointment of Roberto Martinez, although I don't think he will be exposed until he takes Belgium to the World Cup Finals in Russia. This is a manager who thinks the defensive side of the game is a headache he can do without and ultimately that will be the reason I won't be backing Belgium to win the next World Cup with their 'golden generation' of players that will be almost at peak level by then.

However I do believe Belgium could go into the World Cup with a very strong set of Qualifier results behind them in one of the weaker sections in the UEFA Qualifying Groups.

Bosnia-Herzegovina won't be an easy team to beat, but not many would complain if they were the most difficult challenge by some distance that a top Seed would be facing. I don't think Greece, Cyprus or Estonia are going to get that close to Belgium and Martinez can improve his reputation for the casual fan with some strong results over the next thirteen months in the Qualifiers.

As you can imagine, I am backing Belgium to win this game and cover the Asian Handicap. They can score goals and Bosnia-Herzegovina conceded them at an alarming rate in the last set of Qualifiers. Bosnia-Herzegovina conceded at least twice in 4 of their 6 away games in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers and conceded at least three times in 2 of those including in Belgium.

No Kevin De Bruyne is a big blow for Belgium, but I think Eden Hazard can inspire them to a comfortable home win and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Azerbaijan v Norway Pick: There really isn't a lot between Azerbaijan and Norway and I think there won't be a lot between them when the game is played on Saturday afternoon. I am inclined to agree with the layers in this one and think Norway are going to have just enough to see off Azerbaijan and get back on the right road when it comes to any potential World Cup qualification.

I do think Azerbaijan are an improved team, but they might not have enough to see matches through to their conclusion even if they are harder to beat. They did lose 3 times out of 5 in their last set of home Qualifiers and earned a draw with Croatia, but it has been difficult for Azerbaijan to keep a clean sheet.

Norway lost at Italy, Croatia and Hungary in the last Qualifiers, but they won at Malta, Azerbaijan and Bulgaria and I think they can win here again. Recent form hasn't been the best but Norway can get back to winning ways with a battling three points here and can get back into contention in this tough Group with the win.


England v Malta Pick: First things first, England are going to win this game.

The bigger tests for Gareth Southgate will come in the next couple of World Cup Qualifiers, but he will be looking to keep any media heat off of himself by making sure his players produce a good performance on Saturday. There will have to be respect for Malta who proved tough to beat in the last set of Qualifiers when only losing 2-0 at Croatia, 2-0 at Norway and 1-0 at Italy.

However England tend to be a little more bullying when it comes to the Qualifiers and they do beat those they are expected to by handy margins in recent home Qualifiers. That has to be the reason the layers are asking England to cover plenty of goals in this one but I think there might be an argument to dutch them winning by 4 or 5 goals for a small interest.

Since 2004, only Andorra have lost by more than five goals in a Qualifier in England, but the likes of Andorra, Bulgaria, San Marino (twice), Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Kazakhstan, Croatia and Moldova have lost by either 4 or 5 goal margins.

In recent years only the 2-0 win over Estonia is a below par number of goals England have scored in a Qualifier and I think getting 2.62 on England winning by 4 or 5 goals looks a decent price. 4 of their last 10 home Qualifiers would have seen this come in as a winner and I think Malta will look to make life difficult but might struggle in the second half when tiredness sets in.


Poland v Denmark Pick: This Group looks to be the most open one in the UEFA World Cup Qualifying section with Poland, Romania and Denmark all likely to believe they can come out on top.

Only Denmark won in the first round of games, but Poland should have done the same having blown a 0-2 lead at Kazakhstan. I am expecting Poland to bounce back having played very well at home over the last couple of years although Denmark are a side that can be tough to beat and need to be respected.

However I think the odds against quote is tempting enough to back Poland in this one having won 4 of their 5 home Qualifiers in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group which includes wins over Germany and the Republic of Ireland who also made it to the Euro 2016 Finals.

I imagine this will be a tight game and there won't be a lot between them, but Poland can earn a vital three points that puts them back in a decent position in the Group going into another home game next week that they will be expected to win.

MY PICKS: Republic of Ireland to Win by One Goal @ 3.25 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Ecuador-Chile Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Uruguay - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paraguay-Colombia Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Peru-Argentina Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Belgium - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Norway @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
England to Win by 4 or 5 Goal Margins @ 2.62 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Poland @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

October Update: 0-6, - 11 Units (12 Units Staked, - 91.67% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 73-66-3, + 26.17 Units (257 Units Staked, + 10.18% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 6th)

The headlines have been dominated by Maria Sharapova for the last twenty-four hours and I am going to say one final thing on the matter and then I am not going to want to discuss it again (at least until April 2017 when she returns to the Tour).

Sharapova is a huge star in the tennis world and has plenty of fans who will back her to the hilt- in saying that, I would have hoped she would have come out like a role model should and accepted the CAS decision with some grace. Unfortunately she has decided to go on the rampage and blaming the ITF for almost blowing this out of proportion while some of her sponsors, notably Head, have decided to lay some of the blame on WADA's door.

Both seem to think Sharapova should have been informed individually of all the changes that were being made, but that is a disastrous way of thinking. You would also be forgiven to believe that Sharapova had her ban overturned instead of being given a 15 month ban from CAS with the way she has come out and suggested they were impartial compared with the ITF who tried to 'make an example' of her.

It's a terrible lack of responsibility from Sharapova over the whole affair and all of her publicity seems to be trying to overshadow the fact the CAS decision was that she should serve a fifteen month ban for failing a drugs test. That is the important matter here- CAS didn't buy the excuses she has been serving for several months and suggested she does take a pretty long ban, longer than Marin Cilic had to serve.

Fans of Sharapova will believe her version of events, people who dislike her will always see her as a cheat. I do think it was a genuine mistake in taking Meldonium past December, but Sharapova has to take responsibility rather than blaming others for not telling her it was going to be a banned substance- I mean has everyone forgotten that very few people knew Sharapova was taking the medication including having some of her closest team members unaware so I am not sure who she believes should be telling her that the substance is going on the banned list.

I also have no doubt Sharapova didn't know the potential positive effects Meldonium would have, although it was legal until December 2015 so I am not going to say much more than that. The increased use around big matches is all the evidence I need that Sharapova did think it was having some effect on her abilities on the court, but again I will say it was legal so you can't attack her for that.

I am surprised by the amount of ex professionals and coaches who seem to want to sweep this whole issue under the carpet and I can sympathise with Andy Murray who has made his feelings very clear on the whole lackadaisical attitude the tennis authorities seem to have when it comes to catching those cheating the rules with PEDs.


There is actually some tennis still being played on the court rather than off it between Sharapova and the ITF and the events in Beijing and Tokyo move into the business end of the week. I had a poor week last week but I am looking for a bounce back over the next few days before the ATP Tour moves onto another Masters event in Shanghai.


Marcos Baghdatis v Gilles Muller: All credit has to be given to Gilles Muller for seeing off Tomas Berdych in the manner he did on Wednesday, but this is another difficult test for him. There is no doubt that Marcos Baghdatis is not at the same level as Berdych, but he has proven to have the right game plan to break down Muller and has won all three matches played against him over the last thirteen months.

That will give Baghdatis some confidence that he can make it through to the Quarter Final in Tokyo in what looks an open tournament now that both Berdych and Kei Nishikori have been eliminated from the draw. It has been a good season for Baghdatis who is two wins away from setting the most wins in a single season since 2012 and he had a battling win in the First Round which could give him some confidence.

The first serve percentage has always been a weakness for Baghdatis but he still can produce some big time tennis when he is feeling things. The matches with Muller have been competitive though and there hasn't been much between the players although Baghdatis has been a little better at winning points from the second serve which can make a difference at big moments.

I think it will be close again and could easily go into a third set for the third time in four matches between these players and it has happened each time they have played best of three set matches. I think Baghdatis has been in better overall form over the last couple of months and will hold the mental edge having won all three previous matches against the big-serving lefty and I will back Baghdatis to move into the Quarter Final in this pick 'em contest.


Karolina Pliskova v Johanna Konta: The layers have actually picked Karolina Pliskova has the underdog in this match with Johanna Konta and I have to feel that has something to do with Konta 'chasing the Ranking points' more than Pliskova who will be playing in Singapore.

I simply can't see the reasoning behind the prices otherwise as this has proven to be a very difficult match for Konta in the past. She has lost all five matches against the big serving Czech player including twice in 2016, although it does have to be noted that those matches both needed three sets to be decided.

One of them did come on the grass courts where I would have expected Konta to perhaps favour her chances compared with the hard courts. This surface should allow Pliskova a chance to dictate behind her big serve and I do think she has the power to take advantage of the Konta second serve.

There won't be much between them, but I am surprised Pliskova is the underdog and she has played well in her first couple of matches and showed she is willing to battle for the win. She has come from a set down in her first two matches which might have taken something away physically, but Pliskova can make up for that by serving big and keeping Konta under pressure at the big moments to lead to another win over the British player.


Caroline Wozniacki + 2.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: These players are meeting for the third week in a row on the Tour and they have split the first two matches 1-1. The first was won by Caroline Wozniacki in three tough sets, but Agnieszka Radwanska earned some revenge in Wuhan when comfortably dismissing the challenge of the Danish former World Number 1.

There was something not quite right with Wozniacki in Wuhan and I do wonder if the exertions of winning the tournament in Tokyo had just taken something from the gas tank. That shouldn't be the case in Beijing and Wozniacki should be plenty motivated to end 2016 in strong form to make sure her World Ranking is in a decent enough position to take into the 2017 season.

It is almost certain that Radwanska will be playing in Singapore at the end of the month but this is still a player I don't particularly rate that highly. While she is heavily reliant on her movement and defensive skills, I do want to tip my hat to Dan who runs the @tennisratings Twitter account.

He had a brilliant article which showed how poor Radwanska can be in final set deciders and I do think someone like Wozniacki is likely to finish this match stronger than the Pole if they get into that position. The head to head shows Wozniacki has been able to handle the Radwanska game with both players looking to grind down their opponents.

I did back Wozniacki with the games last week and it didn't work out, but I am going to go back to the well this time around and look for a much more competitive performance from the Dane.

MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-6, + 3.42 Units (28 Units Staked, + 12.21% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 5th)

The rain did arrive in Beijing as expected on Tuesday which meant the schedule of play could not be completed as only one of the courts has a roof. It does mean Wednesday is a little more loaded than might have been the case, but there looks to be some quality matches to get through.

Unfortunately the rain looks set to affect the Tokyo tournament instead on Wednesday with showers likely to interrupt play through the day. They should at least have a chance to get all the matches played though, at least on the Singles side of things, in what is a pretty busy day in the Japanese capital too.


Tuesday was also a big day for Maria Sharapova who had her two year ban cut by around nine months which means she will be making her return to the WTA Tour in April 2017. Sharapova released a pretty rubbish statement where she was not as accepting of the blame for failing a drugs test as she was earlier in the year and there was also a vomit-inducing statement released by Head who almost acted like Sharapova had not failed a test in the first place.

All this rubbish of no clear evidence of the performance enhancing effects of Meldonium are not going to satisfy me because I simply don't believe all of these athletes using it have some massive heart issues and not doing it because of the benefits the drug gives. While it wasn't banned until earlier this year, I am not going to be naive enough to believe there was no scientific benefit for these top athletes to be using it.

Either that or I am guessing we should be screening for people who have allergies and severe asthma and get them playing sports because clearly they are the best athletes in the world... Once the medication is being used of course(!)

Personally I don't think the Grand Slam events of 2017 that Sharapova will be eligible to enter should be giving her a Wild Card, but that doesn't look like it will realistically happen. The rest of the 2017 season from April should see Sharapova being able to enter whichever event she likes, but I will be hoping she lands some awful draws unless she shows a little more humbleness in her ban being reduced for what doesn't look the best of reasons.


Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: There are plenty of points still to play for on the ATP Tour so Tomas Berdych won't be panicking about his Number 9 position in the Race for London. He is only 500 points behind Gael Monfils in the Number 6 spot despite missing the US Open and Berdych made a serious move towards getting back into the top eight by winning the tournament in Shenzhen last week.

He has been given a couple of extra days to get ready for the event in Tokyo which has plenty of Ranking points attached to it, although Monfils is also in the draw and moved through to the Second Round. With Dominic Thiem being beaten early in Beijing, Berdych could make big impact in the 400 points gap between them by having a big week in Japan.

The motivation is all there but coming off a long week which followed another solid run in St Petersburg could take its toll from a physical point of view. His opponent is Gilles Muller who can be very dangerous, especially when the serve is working at the top of its game, although his results have been inconsistent in the last few months.

Muller can ease through his service games at time, but I am not sure he is going to have a lot of joy against the Berdych serve. That can build the pressure in each passing game and I think Berdych can end up working his way to a 76, 64 win in this one.


Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Joao Sousa: Winning the title in Tokyo is always going to be important for Kei Nishikori, and he has managed that twice before and will be favourite to make it three times in 2016. Last season he was surprisingly beaten in the Semi Final by Benoit Paire, but Nishikori should be able to have a good run this time around.

I would expect him to be too good for Joao Sousa in this Second Round match with the latter struggling in the last few months of the season. Sousa is set to have fewer wins on the main Tour than in 2015 and the Portuguese player is going to have to out-rally Nishikori to win this one which doesn't seem like it is reasonable to expect.

There will be times Sousa is able to make the big shots, but more often than not I would expect Nishikori to win the rallies once they get going. Neither player is blessed with a huge serve so you'd have to think rallies are likely to be developing through the time these two are on court, and I think Nishikori makes a better effort in protecting his own serve.

This is a big number which is a concern in a best of three set match, but Nishikori and Sousa have similar styles and Nishikori looks to be stronger in almost every department. As long as Nishikori remains focused and doesn't drop too many silly breaks of serve, I think he will be good enough to come through with a 64, 62 win in this Second Round match.


Caroline Garcia - 3.5 games v Shuai Peng: There are times when you can watch Caroline Garcia and become very frustrated with her inability to find the consistency she needs in her game. While she be close to unplayable when hitting a purple patch, they rarely last through an entire match and Garcia can then be accused of going for too much which leads to errors.

Her mental fragility can also see Garcia lose a number of games in quick succession which can make it difficult to trust her to cover spreads. This is about as large a number as I would be comfortable in asking the Frenchwoman to cover and much of that is also to do with the fact she is playing Shuai Peng who is coming off a big win.

Peng dismissed Venus Williams in very impressive fashion in the First Round, but this is a player that has not been in great form since returning to the Tour. While she is experienced, she hasn't had wins of this manner of late and that might mean Peng finds it difficult to back up the success and someone like Garcia has the power off the ground to really get after Peng's weak serve.

I expected Venus to be able to do that, but she hasn't looked at her very best for a while. Garcia, on the other hand, had a solid win over Julia Goerges in the First Round and should be a little better than Venus was and give Peng more to think about. While I don't think Garcia can always be trusted to maintain her form, I do think she will have the majority of break points in this one and can work Peng over for a 75, 64 win in this one.


Madison Keys - 1.5 games v Svetlana Kuznetsova: I was not very impressed with the way Madison Keys played in her win over Kristina Mladenovic in the Second Round a couple of days ago and I think the American needs to be much improved in the Third Round. Keys is currently on the right path to earn a place in Singapore for the WTA Finals despite only playing in her fourteenth tournament this week, but this is an important match in that regards when she takes on Svetlana Kuznetsova.

The American is currently in 8th place in the Race for Singapore but there are less than 300 points between Keys and Kuznetsova in 10th place who will be desperate to make the elite eight players in the world. Kuznetsova closed that gap by reaching the Semi Final in Wuhan last week, but she will have to deal with the Keys power if she is going to at least go a Round further than her this week.

That power can be difficult to contain and Kuznetsova will have to serve well to at least force Keys off balance and prevent her from hitting her deep returns. If Keys is to see a lot of second serves, you would think she would start dictating the rallies and taking away something from Kuznetsova's game in what looks to be a close match.

Keys' serve was not as effective as she would have liked against Mladenovic, a player who mentally is not as strong as Kuznetsova is. While Mladenovic missed her chances to win the match, Keys can't give those same looks to Kuznetsova who is unlikely to misread the situation and make the American scrap for every point she wants to win.

The Keys first serve is likely going to be the key, pardon the pun, to the match. If the American get enough in play, she should be able to stay ahead of the scoreboard and I do think Keys will get chances to break the Kuznetsova serve and thus can win this one 63, 46, 64.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-3, + 3.40 Units (16 Units Staked, + 21.25% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 4th)

The week has gotten off to a much better start than last week with the picks going 4-1 on Monday, but it is a long week ahead in Beijing and Tokyo where plenty of Ranking points are up for grabs.

It looks like being the last really big opportunity for the ladies chasing a place in Singapore for the End of Year Championships to earn the points to get them in the top eight spots. Venus Williams was beaten in the First Round in Beijing which is likely to prevent her getting into one of those places, but Petra Kvitova won the tournament in Wuhan and looks to be a late threat as she moved from Number 21 all the way up to Number 12 in the Race to Singapore.

The WTA Finals are less than three weeks away from beginning now but the ATP World Tour Finals are a couple of weeks later which means there are still plenty of players who will believe they can challenge for the top eight places.

That makes weeks like this especially motivating for all of those players looking for some momentum to end 2016 that they can take into the 2017 season.


While we will see some of the Second Round matches of the WTA Beijing tournament beginning on Tuesday, the bigger news for followers of the WTA Tour will be the outcome of the Maria Sharapova appeal regarding her ban from the Tour. The Court of Arbitration for Sport are expected to release their decision on Tuesday afternoon and it is going to be something that will have some big repercussions no matter which way they go.

My personal opinion is that they will decide to reduce the ban so Sharapova is able to make her return to the Tour in January, but I don't think any outcome will be a surprise for me including leaving the two year ban as originally decided to reducing the ban to the point where Sharapova could technically be playing next week.


As I have said, the picks went 4-1 on Monday to open this week in a much more positive manner than last week which had been the first since the US Open in which I had been making picks. I am looking for the momentum from Monday to help kick this week forward going into Tuesday where I am making six picks from the matches to be played in the three events taking place.

Beijing does look to be a tournament that could be affected by the rain, although they do also have a roof for at least the main court which will keep play going. It might mean some of the matches are forced to spill over until Wednesday when the organisers will be looking to get the tournament back on track, although the hope will be that there are enough windows of dry weather to ensure all of the Singles play is in the books by the end of Tuesday's day of play.


Dominic Thiem v Alexander Zverev: Two of the young, upcoming players on the ATP Tour meet for the fourth time in 2016 and so far it is Dominic Thiem who has gotten the better of Alexander Zverev in the three previous matches. It is actually the German who comes into this First Round match in Beijing as the favourite to win, but I think Thiem can be backed to come through against him.

Both have pretty good tournaments since the US Open with Zverev having a title to his name and Thiem finishing Runner Up at another tournament. The more impressive run was had by Zverev as he beat players of the calibre of Tomas Berdych and Stan Wawrinka to win his title in St Petersburg and that does mean he is in better form of the two, but Thiem has that mental edge of winning three matches in a row against Zverev and doing it from a set down each time.

They have been competitive matches but this might be a match up that Zverev doesn't enjoy with Thiem capable of outlasting him when it comes to the extended backhand to backhand rallies. The Zverev serve might be the bigger weapon, but I am not sure he has still got the consistency behind the first serve and making sure he doesn't offer up too many opportunities on the second.

I don't doubt this will be another close match between two of the 'Next Gen' players on the Tour but Thiem at odds against to continue his winning ways against Zverev has to be backed.


Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Steve Johnson: It can be hard to trust Grigor Dimitrov when you see some of the performances he produces, but there have been more wins of late which have to be improving confidence. He should be able to take his Semi Final run in Chengdu into Beijing and I think he will be too good for Steve Johnson in this First Round match.

The American did have a memorable couple of months on the Tour, but looks to be slipping back to a more realistic level with a couple of disappointing performances in Winston Salem and at the US Open. This is the first time Johnson has been back on the Tour since his Second Round defeat in Flushing Meadows and he might be a little match rusty compared with Dimitrov who had that run last week.

Matches between the players has seen Dimitrov beaten Johnson the last time they met in Cincinnati to level the series 2-2 between them. This does have all the makings of a close match too with a few big points here and there separating the players, but I do believe Dimitrov has more about his game.

The key for him is to make sure he serves well because there are times when he has struggled on the return and Johnson has a decent first serve. However I think Dimitrov has the considerably stronger return of serve and he should be able to battle to a 76, 64 win in this First Round win.


Gael Monfils - 5.5 games v Yuichi Sugita: There is absolutely no doubt that the goal for Gael Monfils has to rubber stamp 2016 as his best season on the Tour by reaching the World Tour Finals in November. He is currently 6th in the Race to London, but there is still work for Monfils to do who makes his first return to the ATP Tour since reaching the US Open Semi Final.

It had been an impressive summer culminating in that run in New York City and Monfils should be confident he can put together some wins in Tokyo to take another step towards the World Tour Finals. The opening match with Yuichi Sugita should be one that is to Monfils' liking with the home player likely to offer all he has but not really matching what Monfils can bring to the court.

Playing at home might help Sugita but he is just 1-8 in Tokyo through his career and has gone 0-4 in the main draw matches he has played. A couple of those losses have been one-sided and much of this match is going to be played on Monfils racquet with his athleticism and movement around the court likely to give Sugita some real problems.

That was the case when they played at the Australian Open and Monfils won in convincing fashion in three sets. The way the Frenchman has been playing over the last couple of months makes it hard to see how Sugita will make it much more competitive this time and I think Monfils moves through with a 63, 63 win.


Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: This is one of the more interesting matches scheduled for Tuesday in Beijing and I think both Karolina Pliskova and Daria Kasatkina will play their part in what could be a fun match to watch. The difference is likely to be made from the first serve Pliskova possesses as well as the fact that Kasatkina might be hitting a wall after a long season.

Kasatkina did play well in Wuhan, but that came after having to snap a 4 match losing run on the Tour. She was also found out a little by the power of Madison Keys and Pliskova can match that which is going to give her problems in this match.

If Pliskova is serving well, she will keep Kasatkina under pressure and I do think the heavy groundstrokes will mean the higher Ranked player is capable of hitting through her on the return of serve too. That makes it difficult to see how Kasatkina can repeat her success over Pliskova on the clay courts earlier this season, although I do think Kasatkina is going to come on leaps and bounds over the next couple of years on the WTA Tour.

At the moment I don't think she has enough to stay with Pliskova on the hard courts and I am looking for Number 5 player on the Race to Singapore leaderboard to come through with a 75, 63 win.


Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Timea Babos: I like Timea Babos and think she has made big improvements as a Singles player on the Tour, although I will also be looking for another step from her next season. She has a decent serve, is clearly a capable player at the net and just needs to find a way to bring in the unforced errors to start becoming a real threat on the WTA Tour.

Those improvements will be worked upon through the off-season in time for the 2017 season, but for now Babos' main focus could be on the Doubles where she looks set to be competing in Singapore at the WTA Finals. That is unlike her opponent Johanna Konta who is battling to be one of the eight Singles players involved in Singapore and who needs a big week to try and get into a position to do that.

Konta ran into the buzzsaw that was Petra Kvitova last week in Wuhan, but she was arguably one of the most competitive players against Kvitova. The British player was a comfortable winner in the First Round and will be in a good position in this match if she can serve well and keep Babos from taking too many swings off the second serve return.

Babos' serve is a threat when she is on top form, but I also think the motivation might not be as high for her as it is for Konta and she could easily slip away in this match. When on top form Babos can make life difficult for anyone, but I think Konta can win this one 75, 63 and move a step closer to earning a place in Singapore.


Shuai Zhang - 2.5 games v Alison Riske: Playing at home has to give Shuai Zhang plenty of motivation and she has enjoyed being back on her home continent in recent weeks. She has played well in reaching the Semi Final in a couple of events although Zhang is looking to make up for an early exit at Wuhan last week.

She hasn't played well in Beijing in the past, but Zhang is having her best year on the Tour and I think she will be able to get past Alison Riske. The American has come through a couple of Qualifiers and had a solid win over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the First Round, although Riske hadn't been in the best of form before that.

I do think Riske needs to be respected having secured what is likely to be her best year on the Tour in terms of wins. She can be very positive on the court and hit plenty of winners when she is feeling her tennis and having three wins behind her makes Riske a threat to win this one straight up.

However I do think Zhang will have plenty of confidence considering the form she has displayed recently and her victory over Sam Stosur in the First Round was very impressive. The serve can let her down at times, but I think Zhang can put her tennis together for long enough to win this one 63, 46, 64 in three tough sets.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 5.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-1, + 4.90 Units (10 Units Staked, + 49% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 3rd)

Another week on the tennis Tour has been put in the books and we are now in the final six weeks of the 2016 season. It is a big week on the Tour with both the ATP and WTA events taking place amongst the biggest that are left to play and there should be plenty of motivation on the court with big Ranking points and potential places in the Championship tournament up for grabs.

Last week was a difficult one for the picks, but I am hoping for a much better one this time around. I will usually have a full breakdown of why I am picking the matches I am, but for the opening picks of the week I am simply putting down my picks below because of the time constraints after a busy weekend.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daria Kasatkina - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Venus Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 1st)

This has been a frustrating week for the tennis picks with one step forward quickly followed by two steps back and that has seen the losses take over.

While I have accepted that I won't be turning this week around, this is a big month to try and get the season totals back into the black or face having back to back losing records which would be a huge disappointment. There are still a couple of days to go in the tournaments from last week, but the events in Beijing and Tokyo will also get underway and the 2016 is quickly winding down.


Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Janko Tipsarevic: The last few months have been difficult for Richard Gasquet with injury taking its toll on his season. I don't think he will have a lot of sympathy from Janko Tipsarevic who has lost a couple of years to injury although he is making the most of his Protected Ranking entry into the tournament in Shenzhen this week.

Both players are looking for a confidence boosting title to take away, but Gasquet is a healthy favourite to at least make it through to the Final. I can understand that as Tipsarevic has struggled to find the consistency that took him into the top 10 of the World Rankings in his prime .

The problem for Tipsarevic has been trying to stay with opponents who have been hitting the ball much harder than he has. He has had some solid wins this week to get into the Semi Final, but Tipsarevic was beaten comfortably by Mikhail Youzhny last week in St Petersburg and Gasquet should have enough pop from the serve to look after that side of his game and allow him to have some shots to try and break the Serb's serve in this one.

Gasquet has won all three previous matches against Tipsarevic and I think he is going to have the majority of break points in this match too. The key will be winning the big points when they come his way and I think he can come through with a 75, 64 win if he is able to take the opportunities when they are presented.


Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: I thought the win over Angelique Kerber in the Third Round would have taken something out of the Petra Kvitova tank, but instead she seems to be boosted by huge confidence levels from that win. Since then she has won two matches without dropping a set and Kvitova looks very comfortable on the surface.

She will be given a test by Dominika Cibulkova who has won the last two matches these two have played against one another but I do think the Slovakian has been forced to work much harder to win her last two matches. Cibulkova's serve could be in big trouble in this one, but her aggression will see her protect that as long as possible although not long enough to win this match as far as I am concerned.

On the other hand everything seems to be working for Kvitova who has been able to punish players behind her big game and it is tough to oppose her when you think of the way she dismissed the challenge of Simona Halep on Friday. This is going to be a similar kind of match for Kvitova and that performance suggests she will be too good for Cibulkova as she is seeing the tennis ball like a football at the moment.

The Kvitova serve is also a bigger weapon than Cibulkova has and I think she can win the tournament and get closer to those players chasing Singapore berths behind a 63, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-11, - 6.74 Units (40 Units Staked, - 16.85% Yield)