This has been my toughest week of the season so far as a lot of the bigger name players have struggled in their first tournaments on the clay courts. Some of the results have been surprising, while the performances, or lack thereof, have been disappointing.
Now we have reached the Quarter Final here in Monte Carlo as the first major clay court tournament gets down to the business end of things.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Stanislas Wawrinka: I am not surprised that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has been set as the underdog in this match, but I think he can make the odds pay and pull out the victory in front of a crowd that should be more behind him than Stanislas Wawrinka.
There is no doubt that the clay courts are the weakest of the surfaces for Tsonga, but he has put in some solid performances on the surface and I think he is capable of doing the same against Wawrinka, a player that has had had two close matches with Tsonga on this surface in the past.
Both of those came at the French Open in each of the last two seasons, both went to five sets and both players have one win each. The statistics from both matches shows how evenly these players are matched, but I think Wawrinka's level has to drop form the performance that ousted Andy Murray so comfortably on Thursday.
While Wawrinka has a lot more clay court matches under his belt this season, I can't help but think he is over-rated here because he beat Murray and I like Tsonga to come through, even if it takes three sets.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Fabio Fognini: Both of these players had impressive wins in the Third Round against the likes of Marin Cilic and Tomas Berdych, but I think it will be Richard Gasquet that is taking part in the Semi Final on Saturday.
There are some similarities with the way both of these players go about their business, but I think Gasquet is slightly stronger off the ground, while Fabio Fognini is the better mover. Fognini was perhaps a little fortunate to beat Andreas Seppi in the First Round when he recovered from a set down and also being 4-3 down in the second set, and I think he is coming up against a player that feels more comfortable within his own mind.
Gasquet has surrounded himself with a good team and it is clear that he is feeling confident and has that little bit of arrogance that he deserves to be playing in amongst the top ten players in the World. He also has had a lot of success against Fognini in their two previous meetings, although the courts he will give the Italian more chances in this one.
However, at the end of the day, I would expect Gasquet to come through with a 6-4, 6-3 win from this match.
MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 2.20 Stan James (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-9, - 10.12 Units (28 Units Staked, - 36.14% Yield)
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Friday, 19 April 2013
Thursday, 18 April 2013
Tennis Picks Monte Carlo 2013 (April 18th)
The tournament here in Monte Carlo continues to see some surprising results as the likes of Novak Djokovic and Tomas Berdych were pushed hard in their opening matches, although that could be down to the fact they are playing their first clay court matches of the season.
I haven't seen much of the Novak Djokovic match today, but I have read that he was looking a little tired and didn't play his best tennis. However, Peter Fleming put it best when he said that this is likely to be the worst tennis the World Number 1 will play this week as he gets more comfortable on his ankle and the strength returns after not playing much tennis since the Davis Cup tie in the United States.
He did lose the first set today, but the fact that Djokovic recovered to win in three sets could bode well for him through the rest of the week, although the man to beat remains Rafael Nadal after his devastating performance in the Second Round.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Florian Mayer: I have said many times on this blog that Florian Mayer is a very awkward player to face as he has a very unique game with all the slice and variations he uses.
However, Grigor Dimitrov has played him once before, a three set defeat on the clay courts a couple of seasons ago, and that should stand him in good stead for this match. I also think Dimitrov has vastly improved in the last couple of years and definitely looks like 2013 could be a breakthrough year for the young Bulgarian of whom so much is expected and the draw is open for a little run here in Monte Carlo.
Dimitrov has had a couple of straightforward wins this week, while Mayer has had to battle through in three sets in both matches. While it is impressive that Mayer has found a way to get through and win those matches, I think it will be a lot more difficult against Dimitrov in the form the latter is displaying.
I expect these players will be going in opposite directions in the Rankings too this season and I think the Bulgarian wins this 6-4, 6-3.
Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Stanislas Wawrinka: This is not an easy clay court match as I mentioned yesterday that Stanislas Wawrinka is very comfortable on the surface, but I do think if Andy Murray serves well, he should be able to come through with some relative comfort.
Both players will be well aware of what the other brings to court and I do think there will be a few breaks of serve, but Murray has won all three meetings since his surprise loss to Wawrinka at the US Open in 2010.
Even though Wawrinka has won both times they have played on clay, it has to be remembered that those matches came in 2008 and earlier and I do think Murray is a vastly improved player on the surface. If this match had been played yesterday and was the World Number 2's first game on the clay, it would definitely be a more dangerous match, but I think he has his feet underneath the surface.
Motivation will also be extremely high as Murray will retain his World Number 2 Ranking if he wins this match and I think he can get over this cover. It might take three sets, but I believe Murray has enough in him to win one set fairly comfortably and that should be enough to cover these games.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 5.5 games v Jarkko Nieminen: Juan Martin Del Potro just about got through his Second Round match, but I do think this match up favours him a lot more than the previous one against Alexandr Dolgopolov.
Del Potro is comfortable on the clay courts which do give him enough time to wind up his big shots and he has the consistency to really hurt Jarkko Nieminen whose second serve can be a liability on most surfaces, especially the clay courts where it sits up to be punished.
It does look a bit amount of games to be covered if I am honest, but I do think Del Potro is capable of grabbing a double break in one of the sets and that could be enough to get the job done. I am looking for the big Argentine to make a faster start than he did in the Second Round and I think he will be a little more ruthless when he is presented opportunities on the Nieminen serve than Milos Raonic was in the last Round.
It is possible this ends with a 6-3, 6-3 win for Del Potro to move to six straight wins over Nieminen.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 5.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-7, - 7.58 Units (22 Units Staked, - 34.45% Yield)
I haven't seen much of the Novak Djokovic match today, but I have read that he was looking a little tired and didn't play his best tennis. However, Peter Fleming put it best when he said that this is likely to be the worst tennis the World Number 1 will play this week as he gets more comfortable on his ankle and the strength returns after not playing much tennis since the Davis Cup tie in the United States.
He did lose the first set today, but the fact that Djokovic recovered to win in three sets could bode well for him through the rest of the week, although the man to beat remains Rafael Nadal after his devastating performance in the Second Round.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Florian Mayer: I have said many times on this blog that Florian Mayer is a very awkward player to face as he has a very unique game with all the slice and variations he uses.
However, Grigor Dimitrov has played him once before, a three set defeat on the clay courts a couple of seasons ago, and that should stand him in good stead for this match. I also think Dimitrov has vastly improved in the last couple of years and definitely looks like 2013 could be a breakthrough year for the young Bulgarian of whom so much is expected and the draw is open for a little run here in Monte Carlo.
Dimitrov has had a couple of straightforward wins this week, while Mayer has had to battle through in three sets in both matches. While it is impressive that Mayer has found a way to get through and win those matches, I think it will be a lot more difficult against Dimitrov in the form the latter is displaying.
I expect these players will be going in opposite directions in the Rankings too this season and I think the Bulgarian wins this 6-4, 6-3.
Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Stanislas Wawrinka: This is not an easy clay court match as I mentioned yesterday that Stanislas Wawrinka is very comfortable on the surface, but I do think if Andy Murray serves well, he should be able to come through with some relative comfort.
Both players will be well aware of what the other brings to court and I do think there will be a few breaks of serve, but Murray has won all three meetings since his surprise loss to Wawrinka at the US Open in 2010.
Even though Wawrinka has won both times they have played on clay, it has to be remembered that those matches came in 2008 and earlier and I do think Murray is a vastly improved player on the surface. If this match had been played yesterday and was the World Number 2's first game on the clay, it would definitely be a more dangerous match, but I think he has his feet underneath the surface.
Motivation will also be extremely high as Murray will retain his World Number 2 Ranking if he wins this match and I think he can get over this cover. It might take three sets, but I believe Murray has enough in him to win one set fairly comfortably and that should be enough to cover these games.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 5.5 games v Jarkko Nieminen: Juan Martin Del Potro just about got through his Second Round match, but I do think this match up favours him a lot more than the previous one against Alexandr Dolgopolov.
Del Potro is comfortable on the clay courts which do give him enough time to wind up his big shots and he has the consistency to really hurt Jarkko Nieminen whose second serve can be a liability on most surfaces, especially the clay courts where it sits up to be punished.
It does look a bit amount of games to be covered if I am honest, but I do think Del Potro is capable of grabbing a double break in one of the sets and that could be enough to get the job done. I am looking for the big Argentine to make a faster start than he did in the Second Round and I think he will be a little more ruthless when he is presented opportunities on the Nieminen serve than Milos Raonic was in the last Round.
It is possible this ends with a 6-3, 6-3 win for Del Potro to move to six straight wins over Nieminen.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 5.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-7, - 7.58 Units (22 Units Staked, - 34.45% Yield)
Wednesday, 17 April 2013
Tennis Picks Monte Carlo 2013 (April 17th)
That was one of the worst days I have had this season as every pick decided to kill themselves before things could even get started.
I don't think I can ever remember a time when three of the four picks all lost the first set either 6-1 or 6-2, putting the chances of a cover almost out of reach straight away. It was a real surprise, especially the scores in the Jurgen Melzer and the Gael Monfils matches. The latter failed to even come through and win his match against Albert Montanes, but all in all it was a terrible day.
I can't be overly disheartened about that though as it has been a very good couple of months since the Australian Open ended and one of these days was always going to happen at some point or another. Hopefully that can be changed as the rest of the week goes on.
Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games v Jurgen Melzer: Nicolas Almagro and Jurgen Melzer both came through in three sets in the First Round, but I do think the Spaniard is going to have too much in his locker in this clash.
I just think Almagro is a lot more solid behind his own serve and will definitely get chances on the Melzer serve and that will prove to be the difference between the players. Melzer is still good enough to string together periods of winners, but his consistency over the course of a best of three or best of five set match is definitely not at the level of a couple of years ago.
The one thing to consider though is that Melzer should have a lot of confidence from a recent tournament win and then a successful Masters appearance in Miami. He has also won a lot of matches having gone a set behind so confidence shouldn't be an issue. However, saying all that, I think Almagro is the better clay court player at this stage of their careers and I do think he can come through with a 6-4, 6-3 win.
Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Albert Montanes: Albert Montanes has come through qualifying and also rallied in the First Round against Gael Monfils to book his place in this Second Round match, but I think he may struggle to stay with Stanislas Wawrinka in this one.
Wawrinka was a little sloppy in losing in the Semi Final last week in Casablanca, but he has got the clay courts underneath is feet now so I am expecting a much more solid performance than Monfils seemingly gave yesterday. I know Montanes is much more comfortable on the clay courts than the other surfaces, but I am not convinced he is still able to perform at the level needed to take it to the better players, despite the win yesterday.
Even though Wawrinka is not a top 10 player, he is still very comfortable on the clay courts and I think he will be too consistent for Montanes, although I am expecting a few breaks of serve both ways.
However, when it is all said and done, I would expect the Swiss Number 2 to come through with a 7-5, 6-3 win.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: With this being the first tournament on the clay courts for most players, we have seen a lot of surprise scores in sets with a number of the top players struggling early on.
That could be the case for Andy Murray in his first match here in Monte Carlo, but I think he will still be good enough to win this one going away at the end of the day. His opponent isn't one of the dangerous lower Ranked players that is completely comfortable on the clay themselves and while Edouard Roger-Vasselin has won three matches this week and also played in a clay tournament last week, I think it is asking a lot of him against the World Number 2.
I don't think it is wise to under-estimate Roger-Vasselin either as he did push Nicolas Almagro (twice) and Juan Martin Del Potro on the clay courts last season. However, I don't think either of those players are as good at returning serve as Andy Murray and that could be the difference at the cover in this one.
As long as Murray serves half-decent, I think he will win 7-5, 6-2.
MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-6, - 8.68 Units (16 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)
I don't think I can ever remember a time when three of the four picks all lost the first set either 6-1 or 6-2, putting the chances of a cover almost out of reach straight away. It was a real surprise, especially the scores in the Jurgen Melzer and the Gael Monfils matches. The latter failed to even come through and win his match against Albert Montanes, but all in all it was a terrible day.
I can't be overly disheartened about that though as it has been a very good couple of months since the Australian Open ended and one of these days was always going to happen at some point or another. Hopefully that can be changed as the rest of the week goes on.
Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games v Jurgen Melzer: Nicolas Almagro and Jurgen Melzer both came through in three sets in the First Round, but I do think the Spaniard is going to have too much in his locker in this clash.
I just think Almagro is a lot more solid behind his own serve and will definitely get chances on the Melzer serve and that will prove to be the difference between the players. Melzer is still good enough to string together periods of winners, but his consistency over the course of a best of three or best of five set match is definitely not at the level of a couple of years ago.
The one thing to consider though is that Melzer should have a lot of confidence from a recent tournament win and then a successful Masters appearance in Miami. He has also won a lot of matches having gone a set behind so confidence shouldn't be an issue. However, saying all that, I think Almagro is the better clay court player at this stage of their careers and I do think he can come through with a 6-4, 6-3 win.
Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Albert Montanes: Albert Montanes has come through qualifying and also rallied in the First Round against Gael Monfils to book his place in this Second Round match, but I think he may struggle to stay with Stanislas Wawrinka in this one.
Wawrinka was a little sloppy in losing in the Semi Final last week in Casablanca, but he has got the clay courts underneath is feet now so I am expecting a much more solid performance than Monfils seemingly gave yesterday. I know Montanes is much more comfortable on the clay courts than the other surfaces, but I am not convinced he is still able to perform at the level needed to take it to the better players, despite the win yesterday.
Even though Wawrinka is not a top 10 player, he is still very comfortable on the clay courts and I think he will be too consistent for Montanes, although I am expecting a few breaks of serve both ways.
However, when it is all said and done, I would expect the Swiss Number 2 to come through with a 7-5, 6-3 win.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: With this being the first tournament on the clay courts for most players, we have seen a lot of surprise scores in sets with a number of the top players struggling early on.
That could be the case for Andy Murray in his first match here in Monte Carlo, but I think he will still be good enough to win this one going away at the end of the day. His opponent isn't one of the dangerous lower Ranked players that is completely comfortable on the clay themselves and while Edouard Roger-Vasselin has won three matches this week and also played in a clay tournament last week, I think it is asking a lot of him against the World Number 2.
I don't think it is wise to under-estimate Roger-Vasselin either as he did push Nicolas Almagro (twice) and Juan Martin Del Potro on the clay courts last season. However, I don't think either of those players are as good at returning serve as Andy Murray and that could be the difference at the cover in this one.
As long as Murray serves half-decent, I think he will win 7-5, 6-2.
MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-6, - 8.68 Units (16 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)
Tuesday, 16 April 2013
Tennis Picks Monte Carlo 2013 (April 16th)
It was a mixed bag of results on Monday with the picks going 2-2, but hopefully it will be a little more productive moving forward as some of the Second Round matches begin today as well as completion of the First Round.
The news surrounding Novak Djokovic is that he will announce whether is playing on Tuesday too and I wouldn't be surprised if the World Number 1 decides to rest until the Madrid Masters at the beginning of May.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 games v Pablo Andujar: I know Philipp Kohlschreiber has only been back for a short period since suffering an injury in the Davis Cup, but the German has already snapped his 4 match losing run on the Tour and I think he can be a little too tough for Pablo Andujar in this match.
Kohlschreiber has shown in the past that he is more than capable of performing on the clay courts and I think his serve is the more effective of the two players and that should lead to Andujar offering more chances to have his serve broken.
Andujar is also off a tough three set win over Jeremy Chardy just yesterday and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if mental and physical tiredness takes over the Spaniard's play. While Andujar also enjoyed success on the clay last season, I think Kohlschreiber will just be a little too strong and come through with a 6-3, 7-5 win.
Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 games v Jesse Huta Galung: Jurgen Melzer is certainly not the player of old and throws in far too many erratic matches these days to trust with any real certainty, but I do think he has enough experience and talent to beat Jess Huta Galung.
The Dutchman has qualified for the event so will be aware of the kind of conditions he will be facing in Monte Carlo, although he hasn't had a lot of clay court pedigree to fall back upon if he gets into a bit of bother in this match.
At least Melzer can point to some really significant runs at the French Open in the past, although he did struggle last season to get wins during this European clay court portion of the season. Both have won Challenger tournaments on the hard courts recently, but I like the veteran to have a little too much 'know-how' in this one for Huta Galung.
Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Albert Montanes: A couple of seasons ago, Albert Montanes may have been the value call to knock of Gael Monfils and while the latter is coming off an injury, I still think he will be good enough to level their personal series at 2-2.
Monfils is just 2-4 since the Australian Open and he went 1-1 on the clay courts in Houston last week, although that has seen him arrive here early enough to at least have some sort of feel as to how the courts are playing.
Facing a clay court specialist that has won a couple of matches to reach the First Round proper is a tough prospect for Monfils, but the Frenchman has shown plenty of talent on these slower surfaces in the past and I think he'll have enough belief to get the job done in this one.
The one thing you will have to face are the break points chances that will be created as Monfils can mentally check out of games, and I do think there will be a fair few breaks of serve in the match. I just believe Monfils will find a way to get on the right side of those and book his place in the Second Round.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: I barely ever include Alexandr Dolgopolov matches in my picks thread as he had sat in my blacklist book for some time with performances ranging from erratic and a little better than a decent club player to putting in some very impressive wins and looking like someone who belongs in the top 20 in the World Rankings.
The problem for Dolgopolov is that he tends to throw in at least one truly terrible service game and that will be punished by someone as good as Juan Martin Del Potro, especially on his current run of form.
Del Potro also finished with an impressive 17-3 record on the clay courts last season and the extra time he gets on the ball seems to sit very well with the Argentine. It can be tough to get a rhythm off of Dogopolov who has to be the player with the most variation in his shots on the ATP Tour. However, his decision making on which shot to play can be suspect and that is why I think Del Potro will make it 4-0 in the personal head to head.
The slower court should give Del Potro to come away with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2. - 0.68 Units (8 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)
The news surrounding Novak Djokovic is that he will announce whether is playing on Tuesday too and I wouldn't be surprised if the World Number 1 decides to rest until the Madrid Masters at the beginning of May.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 games v Pablo Andujar: I know Philipp Kohlschreiber has only been back for a short period since suffering an injury in the Davis Cup, but the German has already snapped his 4 match losing run on the Tour and I think he can be a little too tough for Pablo Andujar in this match.
Kohlschreiber has shown in the past that he is more than capable of performing on the clay courts and I think his serve is the more effective of the two players and that should lead to Andujar offering more chances to have his serve broken.
Andujar is also off a tough three set win over Jeremy Chardy just yesterday and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if mental and physical tiredness takes over the Spaniard's play. While Andujar also enjoyed success on the clay last season, I think Kohlschreiber will just be a little too strong and come through with a 6-3, 7-5 win.
Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 games v Jesse Huta Galung: Jurgen Melzer is certainly not the player of old and throws in far too many erratic matches these days to trust with any real certainty, but I do think he has enough experience and talent to beat Jess Huta Galung.
The Dutchman has qualified for the event so will be aware of the kind of conditions he will be facing in Monte Carlo, although he hasn't had a lot of clay court pedigree to fall back upon if he gets into a bit of bother in this match.
At least Melzer can point to some really significant runs at the French Open in the past, although he did struggle last season to get wins during this European clay court portion of the season. Both have won Challenger tournaments on the hard courts recently, but I like the veteran to have a little too much 'know-how' in this one for Huta Galung.
Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Albert Montanes: A couple of seasons ago, Albert Montanes may have been the value call to knock of Gael Monfils and while the latter is coming off an injury, I still think he will be good enough to level their personal series at 2-2.
Monfils is just 2-4 since the Australian Open and he went 1-1 on the clay courts in Houston last week, although that has seen him arrive here early enough to at least have some sort of feel as to how the courts are playing.
Facing a clay court specialist that has won a couple of matches to reach the First Round proper is a tough prospect for Monfils, but the Frenchman has shown plenty of talent on these slower surfaces in the past and I think he'll have enough belief to get the job done in this one.
The one thing you will have to face are the break points chances that will be created as Monfils can mentally check out of games, and I do think there will be a fair few breaks of serve in the match. I just believe Monfils will find a way to get on the right side of those and book his place in the Second Round.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: I barely ever include Alexandr Dolgopolov matches in my picks thread as he had sat in my blacklist book for some time with performances ranging from erratic and a little better than a decent club player to putting in some very impressive wins and looking like someone who belongs in the top 20 in the World Rankings.
The problem for Dolgopolov is that he tends to throw in at least one truly terrible service game and that will be punished by someone as good as Juan Martin Del Potro, especially on his current run of form.
Del Potro also finished with an impressive 17-3 record on the clay courts last season and the extra time he gets on the ball seems to sit very well with the Argentine. It can be tough to get a rhythm off of Dogopolov who has to be the player with the most variation in his shots on the ATP Tour. However, his decision making on which shot to play can be suspect and that is why I think Del Potro will make it 4-0 in the personal head to head.
The slower court should give Del Potro to come away with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2. - 0.68 Units (8 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)
Monday, 15 April 2013
Tennis Picks Monte Carlo 2013 (April 15th)
I know someone out there is probably wondering why I didn't make any outright picks from the first Masters event to be played on the clay courts in 2013 and it simply came down to the fact that there are too many uncertainties for my liking.
Rafael Nadal should be the favourite, but he looks plenty short considering he could face a very tough Second Round match against Fernando Verdasco, while he is also in the same half of the draw as Andy Murray.
Obviously there are also injury concerns about Novak Djokovic who is the top seed for the tournament. The Serb rolled his ankle in a Davis Cup match against Sam Querrey, and he could be a little tentative despite receiving positive news that it wouldn't be an ankle injury that will force Djokovic out of the European clay court swing.
Roger Federer and David Ferrer are players not here and it all led to me giving the tournament a watching brief when it comes to outright picks this week.
Last week didn't end on the best notes as the three outright picks all failed to get the business done in Casablanca or Houston. Nicolas Almagro lost in the Final in the latter, but the closest bit of success could have been the each way pick on Martin Klizan in Morocco at 20-1.
Klizan reached the Semi Final and took the first set against Kevin Anderson before losing a close second set and then falling apart in the third. Just reaching the Final would have made it yet another positive week, but thankfully the daily picks meant it was only a small loss on Sunday to deal with.
However, the season has been very successful so far and I do enjoy the clay court swing in Europe heading towards the French Open so hopefully the results will continue to improve.
Day two here in Monte Carlo is when a fair few of the First Round matches are completed, although Tuesday will be the much busier day, and these are the picks I will make to open my week here.
Nikolay Davydenko - 2.5 games v Daniel Brands: Daniel Brands has qualified for this tournament so will be very comfortable in the surroundings here in Monte Carlo, but I still think Nikolay Davydenko has enough in his tank to beat him on the slower surfaces.
Brands has a big serve and a fearsome forehand, but he is also erratic and that is likely going to lead to his downfall on the slower surfaces when players will force him to hit one extra shot. That also brings in a different mentality of trying to hit closer and closer to the lines and it will be tough for Brands to do that to someone who can be as consistent as Davydenko.
There is no doubting that Davydenko is not the player of old, but he has shown signs of some real form so far in 2013, and the clay courts will suit his game as he has time to hit his groundies and will have time to find his rhythm in this one.
The Russian remains frustratingly inconsistent and is never far away from throwing in an absolute stinker of a match, but I do think he is still going to be too good for Brands and I like him to win this one in two sets.
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Fabio Fognini: These two Italians will know one another's game backwards and it could be fascinating viewing- they have met 7 times in professional tennis and it is Andreas Seppi that leads 5-2, although losing the last 2 against Fabio Fognini.
All but one of their matches have come on clay courts, although only one of their matches has been played since 2010 and both have significantly improved since then.
Both players will have to work hard on serve as neither has a potent one that will offer too many cheap points and I am guessing there will be a lot of breaks in the match. So what do I think will be the difference? I think Andreas Seppi is more consistent, less likely to have a mental breakdown, and has shown a little more fight in matches than Fabio Fognini has.
If I am honest, I think Fognini is the more talented and has the flashier shots, but he can be wild at times and I think Seppi reaching the Fourth Round at the French Open last May has certainly seen an upturn in his career. He has a new confidence in his own play and I think Seppi finds a way to get this done and cover the spread.
Robin Haase v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: Robin Haase reached the Quarter Final in Casablanca last week and once again showed that he is at his most comfortable on a clay court and I think he will be able to add Edouard Roger-Vasselin to recent players he has beaten on the surface.
Haase won an ATP title on the clay courts last season and was also a Quarter Finalist here in Monte Carlo before losing to Novak Djokovic. While the Dutchman has shown some ability on this surface, the same can't be said of Roger-Vasselin, even though he has won a couple of matches to qualify for the main draw this week.
However, I just think the confidence picked up by Haase last week with a couple of wins picked up in Morocco added to the fact that he has won all 3 previous meetings against Roger-Vasselin makes me think he can win this one too. He is another one of these erratic players though so don't be surprised if it needs three sets to get the job done, but I do think Haase does get the job done.
Mikhail Youzhny v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: There is no doubt that Mikhail Youzhny doesn't have the consistency that had him reach the World Number 8 Ranking, but I still think he is going to be too strong for Daniel Gimeno-Traver and am a little surprised the layers are taking such a chance with the price.
One thing you have to respect Youzhny for is simply that he will not give in without a fight and he does at least try and give all he can on the court. Granted it is unlikely that I will see Youzhny knock off one of the top players these days, but he still finds enough in the tank to see off those he should beat, for the most part, and I think Gimeno-Traver comes into that category.
Gimeno-Traver is no mug on the clay courts and regularly picks up Challenger titles, but he hasn't really been able to transfer that form onto the Main Tour, even though he reached a career high Ranking last month at Number 48.
The Spaniard hasn't had an impact during the South American clay court swing earlier this season, and he has a 12-27 record on the clay courts at this level over the last three years. There will likely be breaks of serve in this match, but it is one that I think Mikhail Youzhny can come out on the right side and I like his chances of making it into the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Nikolay Davydenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Robin Haase @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Daily Picks: 3-1, + 2.25 Units (4 Units Staked, + 56.25% Yield)
Outright Picks: 0-3, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Season 2013: + 46.82 Units (453 Units Staked, + 10.34% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Rafael Nadal should be the favourite, but he looks plenty short considering he could face a very tough Second Round match against Fernando Verdasco, while he is also in the same half of the draw as Andy Murray.
Obviously there are also injury concerns about Novak Djokovic who is the top seed for the tournament. The Serb rolled his ankle in a Davis Cup match against Sam Querrey, and he could be a little tentative despite receiving positive news that it wouldn't be an ankle injury that will force Djokovic out of the European clay court swing.
Roger Federer and David Ferrer are players not here and it all led to me giving the tournament a watching brief when it comes to outright picks this week.
Last week didn't end on the best notes as the three outright picks all failed to get the business done in Casablanca or Houston. Nicolas Almagro lost in the Final in the latter, but the closest bit of success could have been the each way pick on Martin Klizan in Morocco at 20-1.
Klizan reached the Semi Final and took the first set against Kevin Anderson before losing a close second set and then falling apart in the third. Just reaching the Final would have made it yet another positive week, but thankfully the daily picks meant it was only a small loss on Sunday to deal with.
However, the season has been very successful so far and I do enjoy the clay court swing in Europe heading towards the French Open so hopefully the results will continue to improve.
Day two here in Monte Carlo is when a fair few of the First Round matches are completed, although Tuesday will be the much busier day, and these are the picks I will make to open my week here.
Nikolay Davydenko - 2.5 games v Daniel Brands: Daniel Brands has qualified for this tournament so will be very comfortable in the surroundings here in Monte Carlo, but I still think Nikolay Davydenko has enough in his tank to beat him on the slower surfaces.
Brands has a big serve and a fearsome forehand, but he is also erratic and that is likely going to lead to his downfall on the slower surfaces when players will force him to hit one extra shot. That also brings in a different mentality of trying to hit closer and closer to the lines and it will be tough for Brands to do that to someone who can be as consistent as Davydenko.
There is no doubting that Davydenko is not the player of old, but he has shown signs of some real form so far in 2013, and the clay courts will suit his game as he has time to hit his groundies and will have time to find his rhythm in this one.
The Russian remains frustratingly inconsistent and is never far away from throwing in an absolute stinker of a match, but I do think he is still going to be too good for Brands and I like him to win this one in two sets.
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Fabio Fognini: These two Italians will know one another's game backwards and it could be fascinating viewing- they have met 7 times in professional tennis and it is Andreas Seppi that leads 5-2, although losing the last 2 against Fabio Fognini.
All but one of their matches have come on clay courts, although only one of their matches has been played since 2010 and both have significantly improved since then.
Both players will have to work hard on serve as neither has a potent one that will offer too many cheap points and I am guessing there will be a lot of breaks in the match. So what do I think will be the difference? I think Andreas Seppi is more consistent, less likely to have a mental breakdown, and has shown a little more fight in matches than Fabio Fognini has.
If I am honest, I think Fognini is the more talented and has the flashier shots, but he can be wild at times and I think Seppi reaching the Fourth Round at the French Open last May has certainly seen an upturn in his career. He has a new confidence in his own play and I think Seppi finds a way to get this done and cover the spread.
Robin Haase v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: Robin Haase reached the Quarter Final in Casablanca last week and once again showed that he is at his most comfortable on a clay court and I think he will be able to add Edouard Roger-Vasselin to recent players he has beaten on the surface.
Haase won an ATP title on the clay courts last season and was also a Quarter Finalist here in Monte Carlo before losing to Novak Djokovic. While the Dutchman has shown some ability on this surface, the same can't be said of Roger-Vasselin, even though he has won a couple of matches to qualify for the main draw this week.
However, I just think the confidence picked up by Haase last week with a couple of wins picked up in Morocco added to the fact that he has won all 3 previous meetings against Roger-Vasselin makes me think he can win this one too. He is another one of these erratic players though so don't be surprised if it needs three sets to get the job done, but I do think Haase does get the job done.
Mikhail Youzhny v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: There is no doubt that Mikhail Youzhny doesn't have the consistency that had him reach the World Number 8 Ranking, but I still think he is going to be too strong for Daniel Gimeno-Traver and am a little surprised the layers are taking such a chance with the price.
One thing you have to respect Youzhny for is simply that he will not give in without a fight and he does at least try and give all he can on the court. Granted it is unlikely that I will see Youzhny knock off one of the top players these days, but he still finds enough in the tank to see off those he should beat, for the most part, and I think Gimeno-Traver comes into that category.
Gimeno-Traver is no mug on the clay courts and regularly picks up Challenger titles, but he hasn't really been able to transfer that form onto the Main Tour, even though he reached a career high Ranking last month at Number 48.
The Spaniard hasn't had an impact during the South American clay court swing earlier this season, and he has a 12-27 record on the clay courts at this level over the last three years. There will likely be breaks of serve in this match, but it is one that I think Mikhail Youzhny can come out on the right side and I like his chances of making it into the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Nikolay Davydenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Robin Haase @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Daily Picks: 3-1, + 2.25 Units (4 Units Staked, + 56.25% Yield)
Outright Picks: 0-3, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Season 2013: + 46.82 Units (453 Units Staked, + 10.34% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Friday, 12 April 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (April 12th)
Yesterday we saw the Sam Querrey pick being voided as he pulled out of the tournament in Houston and was replaced by Ivo Karlovic. I had mentioned that he might be mentally a little beat up after what happened in the match with Novak Djokovic in the Davis Cup.
It has to hurt that he won just one game in the third and fourth set, after taking the second set in a tie-break, especially after all the rumours that Novak Djokovic wouldn't be playing at the French Open after an injury suffered in just the third game of the match.
That has to hurt a professional that he barely threatened a win against a hobbled opponent, no matter if it is the World Number 1 or not, and so I wasn't overly surprised that he decided to pull out in Houston. The clay court season has never been a big success for any of the top American players in the past, and so this has to be a tough portion of the season for the likes of Querrey and John Isner, although the latter is certainly capable on the surface as shown when he pushed Rafael Nadal to five sets at the French Open.
Roberta Vinci - 4.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: Roberta Vinci has certainly improved as a player on the Singles court thanks to her success in the Doubles and I think she has enough to see off Karolina Pliskova in this Quarter Final in Katowice.
There is no doubt that Pliskova can cause some problems for Vinci in this one, but I think the Italian certainly has an awkward game that can frustrate her younger opponent, especially the backhand slice that could produce a lot of unforced errors from the Pliskova racquet.
I am expecting a few breaks of serve in the match and that can be a problem with a spread of this size, especially as Vinci is not one to panic if she loses a set, but I am looking for the Italian to just be a little too solid and win this in straight sets, likely 6-4, 6-3.
MY PICKS: Roberta Vinci - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet 365 (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.25 Units (3 Units Staked, + 41.67% Yield)
It has to hurt that he won just one game in the third and fourth set, after taking the second set in a tie-break, especially after all the rumours that Novak Djokovic wouldn't be playing at the French Open after an injury suffered in just the third game of the match.
That has to hurt a professional that he barely threatened a win against a hobbled opponent, no matter if it is the World Number 1 or not, and so I wasn't overly surprised that he decided to pull out in Houston. The clay court season has never been a big success for any of the top American players in the past, and so this has to be a tough portion of the season for the likes of Querrey and John Isner, although the latter is certainly capable on the surface as shown when he pushed Rafael Nadal to five sets at the French Open.
Roberta Vinci - 4.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: Roberta Vinci has certainly improved as a player on the Singles court thanks to her success in the Doubles and I think she has enough to see off Karolina Pliskova in this Quarter Final in Katowice.
There is no doubt that Pliskova can cause some problems for Vinci in this one, but I think the Italian certainly has an awkward game that can frustrate her younger opponent, especially the backhand slice that could produce a lot of unforced errors from the Pliskova racquet.
I am expecting a few breaks of serve in the match and that can be a problem with a spread of this size, especially as Vinci is not one to panic if she loses a set, but I am looking for the Italian to just be a little too solid and win this in straight sets, likely 6-4, 6-3.
MY PICKS: Roberta Vinci - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet 365 (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.25 Units (3 Units Staked, + 41.67% Yield)
Thursday, 11 April 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (April 11th)
The tennis tournaments at Casablanca and Houston continue this week and I will continue making picks where I see any value.
For some reason, the layers are not putting up prices for the tournament in Poland, or limiting the markets at the very least and I am not entirely sure why. Oh well, I won't be losing any sleep over that and will just focus on what is out there.
Martin Klizan - 2.5 games v Filippo Volandri: I have picked Martin Klizan as a potential outsider to win the tournament in Casablanca this week, and I do think he can see off the veteran Filippo Volandri as long as his confidence isn't dented from a poor month or so on the Tour.
Klizan certainly has the clay court pedigree and recorded two wins over Volandri last season on this surface so he certainly won't be intimidated by the match up. However, it does have to be taken into consideration that Volandri has won four matches here so will be much more familiar with the court conditions and could have an edge in the match.
There is also a chance that Klizan is forced to go to three sets to win this match, but I do think he is capable of doing it with a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win and I like the Number 3 seed to make it into the Second Round.
Sam Querrey - 3.5 games v Rhyne Williams: I am a little surprised that Sam Querrey isn't favoured by at least another game in this one, unless the layers believe the beating he took by Novak Djokovic in the Davis Cup last Sunday is playing on his mind.
Querrey is the American Number 1, which shows how far that country has dropped in terms of performers, but he is still likely to be too good for his compatriot Rhyne Williams. Neither player has a lot of clay court pedigree, but Querrey did win a Challenger event last season on this surface against players of a similar level to Williams.
I think the courts here in Houston do play faster than traditional European clay courts and that should favour the Querrey big serve and I do think he can come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Martin Klizan - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Sam Querrey - 3.5 Games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 1-1, + 0.25 (2 Units Staked, + 12.5% Yield)
For some reason, the layers are not putting up prices for the tournament in Poland, or limiting the markets at the very least and I am not entirely sure why. Oh well, I won't be losing any sleep over that and will just focus on what is out there.
Martin Klizan - 2.5 games v Filippo Volandri: I have picked Martin Klizan as a potential outsider to win the tournament in Casablanca this week, and I do think he can see off the veteran Filippo Volandri as long as his confidence isn't dented from a poor month or so on the Tour.
Klizan certainly has the clay court pedigree and recorded two wins over Volandri last season on this surface so he certainly won't be intimidated by the match up. However, it does have to be taken into consideration that Volandri has won four matches here so will be much more familiar with the court conditions and could have an edge in the match.
There is also a chance that Klizan is forced to go to three sets to win this match, but I do think he is capable of doing it with a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win and I like the Number 3 seed to make it into the Second Round.
Sam Querrey - 3.5 games v Rhyne Williams: I am a little surprised that Sam Querrey isn't favoured by at least another game in this one, unless the layers believe the beating he took by Novak Djokovic in the Davis Cup last Sunday is playing on his mind.
Querrey is the American Number 1, which shows how far that country has dropped in terms of performers, but he is still likely to be too good for his compatriot Rhyne Williams. Neither player has a lot of clay court pedigree, but Querrey did win a Challenger event last season on this surface against players of a similar level to Williams.
I think the courts here in Houston do play faster than traditional European clay courts and that should favour the Querrey big serve and I do think he can come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Martin Klizan - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Sam Querrey - 3.5 Games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 1-1, + 0.25 (2 Units Staked, + 12.5% Yield)
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