Australian Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2024 (Sunday 21st January)

Make no mistake, it is getting absolutely boring to start every day wondering whether the luck will ever change.

It says plenty that Tommy Paul would get to Match Points (x 2) to win the match in the fourth set and give the page a winning selection, but instead he misses out and another loser has to be placed on the record.

A lot of the British media will want to praise Cameron Norrie, but Casper Ruud has to be feeling absolutely sick that he was beaten in that match. After coming through a second set Tie-Breaker, having already dominated the Break Points that were created in splitting the first two sets, Casper Ruud took a break lead in the third set.

I wish I could say it was a surprise, but Ruud, who had faced just a single Break Point in the previous two and a half sets then decided it was time to start throwing away serve like it was going out of fashion.

One thing is getting things wrong, but another all together when momentum is lost within matches in the most unbelievable way.

If you're dominating on serve and have all of the momentum, it is hard to know how the match swings so wildly again, but that has been a feature of this tournament. How many times can I write about matches that looked to be moving exactly in the direction predicted, but then being blown wildly off course without any real idea as to why that has happened?

Players suddenly being unable to break, or throwing away serve having barely been threatened is impossible to predict, and it continues to be the absolute pits of a tournament as far as predictions go.

One remarkable factor I've noted is the amount of players I've picked who have lost the first Break and then gone on to lose the First Set. Even Hubert Hurkacz has to come from a set behind to win his match in four sets and you do have to wonder whether it is going to change.

You might think adjustments are needed if Picks have been wildly off the mark, but the reality is this tournament would have had a massively different look if not for the outrageous lack of luck that has been with those selections. You always need luck, no matter how much you can analyse a pick, but that has been missing by a wide margin and led to the worst Grand Slam result on these pages by a considerable distance.

Jannik Sinner - 6.5 games v Karen Khachanov: Memories of the way he wilted against this opponent at the US Open in September 2020 will not likely have faded, but Jannik Sinner is a considerably better player in January 2024.

He was the World Number 74 and Jannik Sinner had led Karen Khachanov 2-0 in sets, but won just two games in the next two sets before losing a final set Tie-Breaker. And Jannik Sinner will point out that he did beat Khachanov twice on the hard courts in 2021 to prove he has what it takes to win a big Fourth Round match at the Australian Open.

While Jannik Sinner has breezed through the first three Rounds without breaking much of a sweat, it has been harder work for Karen Khachanov. The World Number 15 has needed four sets in each of his three wins, but he is a former Semi Finalist at the US Open and Karen Khachanov reached the last four in Melbourne twelve months ago before losing in four competitive sets against Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The serve is clearly a big weapon for Karen Khachanov and he is aggressive enough on the return to believe he can give any opponent difficulty. He took several months off after losing to Novak Djokovic in the French Open Quarter Final, and Khachanov returned at the US Open before embarking on some decent runs in hard court events played in the back end of 2023.

Karen Khachanov will feel the pressure is on Jannik Sinner, but he has found it tough to play top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. It also should be noted that Khachanov faced 17 Break Points compared with creating just 5 in his Third Round match and that level needs to be improved significantly when facing someone of the quality of Jannik Sinner.

The Italian has not had the consistent impact at the Grand Slam level that his talent should have done, but he should be fresh mentally and physically after coasting through the first three Rounds. It may have left Jannik Sinner a little undercooked with the level of opponent picking up significantly, but there is no doubting the qualities of a player that has a 19-6 record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over a twelve month period.

Unsurprisingly the service numbers do decline against the best players on the Tour, but Sinner is still holding 85% of games played, which is superior to Karen Khachanov's 83% mark. The biggest difference is on the return with Jannik Sinner breaking in 23% of return games against top 20 Ranked opponents compared with 11% for his opponent.

In their two most recent matches, Jannik Sinner had a slight edge on the returning numbers, but that gap should have widened now. He can beat the 2023 Semi Finalist and he can cover this wide mark, even if the Italian needs four sets to move through to a second Quarter Final in Melbourne.

Andrey Rublev - 1.5 games v Alex De Minaur: We have not had a men's Australian Finalist at their home Grand Slam since Lleyton Hewitt finished Runner Up in 2005 and there has not been a home male winner since 1976. That means home representatives tend to play with a huge amount of expectation on their shoulders and it is Alex De Minaur who has to hold them all as the sole Aussie left in the men's draw.

The home crowd will definitely give him a lift and Alex De Minaur has started 2024 in strong form, which will have raised expectations. He has had little trouble moving through the first three Rounds, and he has reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open for the third year in a row.

Jannik Sinner ended the run in 2022 and Novak Djokovic did that in 2023 as Alex De Minaur chases his first Quarter Final run in Melbourne. He did reach the Quarter Final at the US Open in September 2020, but De Minaur has failed to do that again and now faces an opponent who has regularly made the last eight at Grand Slams.

Controlling emotion is going to be key for Andrey Rublev, especially in what is expected to be an intense, electric atmosphere. He has to be aware that the fans are going to be very much against him, but Rublev has won seven sets in a row in the tournament, while he has won all seven matches played in 2024.

Andrey Rublev will be chasing a spot in the Australian Open Quarter Final for the third time in four years, while also looking to reach the last eight of a Grand Slam for the sixth time in seven outings. Consistency has kept him amongst the elite of the ATP Tour, although another significant test is likely to await as Rublev looks to reach a Grand Slam Semi Final for the first time.

Overlooking Alex De Minaur would be a mistake, but it is also unlikely.

The Australian has a winning record against Andrey Rublev, including being 3-1 on the hard courts against him. Two of those wins were back in 2018, but Alex De Minaur beat Andrey Rublev with minimum fuss on an indoor court in Rotterdam back in February 2023.

However, Andrey Rublev is likely to have picked up a lot of confidence from coming from a set down to beat De Minaur at the Paris Masters at the back end of 2023. It was an impressive win and one that may give Andrey Rublev a slight edge, mentally, in this big Fourth Round match.

The numbers are similar to open 2024 with both players serving really well and backing that up on the return of serve. Alex De Minaur has perhaps been the more composed when the Break Points have come up, while he has also had better successes when facing top 10 Ranked opponents compared with his opponent.

Andrey Rublev is just 1-7 against top 10 Ranked players on the hard courts, but it does feel like there is an inferiority complex when he has faced the likes of Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev. The numbers remain incredibly strong when facing players Ranked below him and that may give Andrey Rublev a narrow edge in this good looking Fourth Round clash.

You have to respect the fact that Alex De Minaur does tend to play up to the level of opponent and he has a 9-6 record on the hard courts over the last twelve months when facing a player Ranked higher than himself. However, the numbers do decline significantly and Andrey Rublev may do enough to come through in four or perhaps even five competitive sets.

Taylor Fritz v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Reaching back to back Quarter Finals at Grand Slam events for the first time may give Taylor Fritz plenty of confidence to take into the rest of the calendar year. This may not sound like the biggest achievement for someone who has long led the way for American men's tennis, but Taylor Fritz has struggled to put it together in the best of five set format.

The Australian Open has been a case of what might have been- Taylor Fritz lost to eventual winner Novak Djokovic in 2021 in the Third Round, but was the stronger player in the five set defeat. A year later he was beaten in the Fifth Set by Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Fourth Round and it is the Greek player who stands in his way again.

It has been a decent tournament for Stefanos Tsitsipas who has tended to play his best tennis in the first half of the season. He has reached eight Quarter Finals and all of those have been either at the Australian Open or French Open, while Tsitsipas has only made the second week twice in all of his appearances at Wimbledon and the US Open combined.

Stefanos Tsitsipas will always get a lot of support in Melbourne from the local Greek community and he has used that to fuel him to three Semi Finals and one Final at the Australian Open. Twelve months he came up short against Novak Djokovic, like many others, and the three wins on the board in the tournament will have given him plenty of confidence.

He was perhaps a little fortunate to see off Jordan Thompson, but the other two wins have been largely stress-free and the experiences of winning big matches in Melbourne may give him the edge over Taylor Fritz. The fact that Stefanos Tsitsipas has won three of the four previous matches against Fritz, including one here, will increase his belief and he has yet to be beaten on a hard court by this opponent.

Of course Taylor Fritz should believe in his own ability having really been the better player in the five set loss to Tsitsipas here, while he beat this opponent on his favoured clay courts in Monte Carlo last year. The two losses were very early in the career and the American has dominated his last two opponents in the draw after a tough opener when Taylor Fritz needed to go the distance.

Playing against top 10 Ranked opponents on the surface has been difficult for Taylor Fritz over the last year, but this is a decent enough match up for him.

Much depends on serving well and putting Stefanos Tsitsipas under pressure as Jordan Thompson did in the Second Round and we have seen enough from Taylor Fritz to believe he can do that. That was key to pushing Tsitsipas all the way in their previous Australian Open match, although winning will mean Taylor Fritz has been stronger when the Break Points come his way.

He was wasteful in the Third Round win and cannot afford to do that against the stronger players on the Tour.

Taylor Fritz has had the edge when it comes to the return numbers on the hard courts, but this should be another tight, competitive match between the two players.

The chances should largely fall in favour of Taylor Fritz and he may have a bit too much for Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has only just returned after injury. Jordan Thompson showed the blueprint for a big server to beat Tsitsipas, but Taylor Fritz has a bit more quality in his all around tennis compared with the Australian and that can see the lower Ranked player move into the last eight.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Taylor Fritz @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Mirra Andreeva - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 14-38, - 52.12 Units (104 Units Staked, - 50.12% Yield)

NFL Divisional Round PlayOff Picks 2024 (January 20-21)

The NFL PlayOffs are usually an exciting time of the year, but fans will be hoping for a lot more drama in the Divisional Round than we saw in the Super Wild Card Round last time out.

Six games were played, but five of those ended up in blowouts and only the Los Angeles Rams-Detroit Lions game kept fans engrossed right down to the wire.

Some of the final scores looked more competitive than the games actually were, but we are hoping for better in the Divisional Round.

That may be asking too much with two big favourites and another who are favoured by almost a Touchdown.

The two Number 1 Seeds are both back to host games, although perhaps not against the opponent they would have been expecting to face, but it just feels a little underwhelming. That may be partly down to the fact that the Miami Dolphins season ended in a whimper, but I am also a fan of the sport and I want to see top games and it just feels like those are missing right now.

It is very difficult to look beyond the top Seeds meeting in the Super Bowl, but the hope is that we see some drama this week.

Another good week for the NFL Picks has kept the momentum going- after losing the opening Wild Card Pick, the next five came back as winners and that should ensure a winning season at the very least.

Backing that up in the Divisional Round is still very much the aim with the selections from the games added below.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: This is a rematch of a Week 1 game, but the Houston Texans and CJ Stroud are going to feel they are much more rounded a few months later. The Quarter Back was making his first ever start in the NFL when losing to the Baltimore Ravens, but will lead the Texans into this Divisional Round game having the momentum of winning three games in a row, including blowing out the Cleveland Browns in the Super Wild Card Round game.

Of course this is a big step up in challenge for the Houston Texans, who have been hit by injury on both sides of the ball.

One thing is facing the top Seed in the AFC, but another is facing them knowing the Baltimore Ravens are rested and also hosting the game outdoors in what is expected to be cold weather.

However, that did not work out very well for the Baltimore Ravens when last in this position- Lamar Jackson might be having a MVP level season, but he will have some mental demons to exorcise having struggled to take his regular season form into the PlayOffs and with plenty of talk about the loss to the Tennessee Titans in the last couple of weeks.

John Harbaugh is trying to follow brother Jim by winning the biggest prize in his sport, but he does not have the best record when preparing his Ravens out of a Bye Week. His team have effectively had three weeks off, which is going to raise another concern, but the Baltimore Ravens should have key players back.

Most notable could be Mark Andrews, although his status is still Questionable for this Divisional Round game. The Ravens have continued to play well even in his absence, but Andrews could be a huge boost for the team if they are able to get him back into the fold.

The Ravens are going to want to run the ball first and foremost and use that to open up the passing lanes, although the weather may hinder any impact through the air anyway. You have to give DeMeco Ryans and the Houston Coaching Staff a lot of credit for the vast improvements made on the Defensive Line, but injuries have perhaps contributed to the Texans having a little more difficulty in stopping the run down the stretch.

Losing JK Dobbins has hurt, but Dalvin Cook has been signed and the veteran can join Gus Edwards and Justice Hill in helping the Ravens establish the run. Of course they have also have Lamar Jackson who can tuck the ball and pick up plenty of yards on the ground himself, so the feeling is that the Ravens can keep themselves in front of the chains.

It should mean they can make plays through the air when they decide they can- the gusty winds could be a problem, but throwing out of third and manageable is a good place to be. Lamar Jackson has some quality weapons in the passing game that can expose this Texans Secondary and the feeling is that the Ravens can at least produce an Offensive outing more like what we have seen in the regular season than we did when they faced the Titans in this position in 2019.

You cannot ignore the poor recent record the Ravens have had in the post-season though and there is going to be plenty of pressure on them.

Conversely, Houston may arrive feeling like they have already massively overachieved and having nothing to lose, while they have a Quarter Back that has shown throughout his rookie season that he can elevate this team.

The Texans did win at Cincinnati outdoors, but they were well beaten by the New York Jets and you do have to wonder if CJ Stroud can take his success on the road.

He is a quality Quarter Back, but this is another top Defensive unit in front of him and one that is much healthier than the Cleveland Browns who were beaten in the Super Wild Card Round. The score in that one got out of hand for the Browns once Joe Flacco became a turnover machine with a couple of Pick-Sixes, so the expectation is that this is another big test for the rookie Quarter Back.

You have to believe the experience of playing here in Week 1 will help, but Stroud is without some key Offensive pieces and the Offensive Line continues to struggle in pass protection. The Texans would hope to establish the run against the Ravens, which is the weakness on this side of the ball, but they can only be used as long as the game is competitive, while you also have to factor in the struggles the Houston Offensive Line have had in establishing the run down the stretch.

A lot of the pressure has been on CJ Stroud, although the rookie has obviously accepted that and played very well. In this one he is likely going to be scrambling around and looking to make plays, but that becomes difficult against this Ravens Secondary, even if Marlon Humphrey is expected to miss out.

A backdoor cover is possible with the line as high as it is, while Lamar Jackson has been a Quarter Back to oppose when he has been favoured by more than 3 points. His PlayOff record is abysmal considering the talent, but the Ravens do match up pretty well with the Texans and the outdoor conditions should favour Baltimore a bit more too.

CJ Stroud has looked after the ball very well as the pressure has intensified during this three game winning run, but the Ravens will generate pressure and they may be able to create a turnover or two to just pull away for the win and cover.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: If this Divisional Round game had been played a year ago, all of the talk would have been about Aaron Rodgers and being overlooked by the San Francisco 49ers in the NFL Draft. The veteran Quarter Back has moved on and the Green Bay Packers will head off to face the Number 1 Seed in the NFC with Jordan Love at Quarter Back instead.

It has been an up and down season for Love personally and for this young Packers team, but there has been enough to see to have fans believing that a Championship will be possible in the coming years. This year might be too soon, but the Packers will not be lacking confidence having humbled the Dallas Cowboys on the road in the Super Wild Card Round.

This is a significant step up against a rested San Francisco team that are favoured to win the Super Bowl.

Last season an injury to Brock Purdy proved costly in the NFC Championship Game and so there is plenty of motivation for the 49ers to right that wrong, and it is no surprise to see them as a big favourite. Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 4-0 against the spread when set as the home favourite in the PlayOffs and many fans will be expecting them to improve on that over the next two weekends to earn a trip to Las Vegas in mid-February.

The 49ers will not be overly concerned about back to back home losses to end the regular season, especially as the last one was with the backups.

Having a couple of weeks off has given the starters a boost and the 49ers are coming in looking very healthy, which is a concern for every other team with Super Bowl ambitions. They will certainly feel this health gives them every chance to impose themselves on the Offensive side of the ball and the Green Bay Packers have long had issues trying to stop a Kyle Shanahan San Francisco Offense.

With the Offensive Line intact, the 49ers are expected to run the ball right at the Green Bay Packers and Christian McCaffrey should be able to produce a big game. While the Packers Defensive Line have stiffened down the stretch, they have not faced an Offensive Line like the one San Francisco trot out onto the field and Green Bay have allowed 4.8 yards per carry on the road this season.

Motion and sweeps will give the 49ers a way to establish the run too and McCaffrey can be a big threat as a pass-catcher so the feeling is that the home team will be in third and manageable throughout the game.

Some may see Brock Purdy as a product of the system rather than him being an elite Quarter Back, but it doesn't really matter because he is producing on the field. With Jaire Alexander Questionable, Purdy should be able to use play-action to hit his Receivers down the field, while it also makes it very difficult to get to the Quarter Back for a solid pass rush if the Packers are playing behind the chains.

The 49ers have been very impressive in their dominance in the regular season with all but one of their wins being by double digits and so they have to be respected.

Much is going to depend on the Green Bay Offensive Line in this one as the Packers look to be competitive in this Divisional Round game. A lot of credit has been given to the development of Jordan Love, but the key to this one may actually be Aaron Jones and the Line as they look to establish the run against the 49ers and sustain drives.

The Offensive Line have offered Jordan Love time in the pocket when he has dropped back to throw, but it is much easier to try and contain Nick Bosa and Chase Young if they are in third and manageable. So the key is to make sure that Jones gets things going on the ground, although the 49ers are well aware of the importance of shutting down the Running Back and have played well in recent games when it comes to defending the run.

Jordan Love has been careful with the ball, but that becomes more challenging if the team are chasing points or in obvious passing situations. He has a young Receiving corps that have stepped up as the season has worn on, while Christian Watson should offer more in the Divisional Round having only just returned for the PlayOffs.

There are one or two holes in the San Francisco Secondary that can be exploited if the Green Bay Packers are at their best and Jordan Love may be able to engineer a backdoor cover. They covered as a big road underdog in the Super Wild Card Round and the Packers have a solid 7-4 record against the spread when given points this season.

Of course opposing San Francisco in their own Stadium has proven to be a poor choice, although they have not been as effective covering the spread with the layers putting down big spreads knowing the public want to back them. In this Divisional Round game, the public look to be favouring the Packers, but they do have the qualities at the line of scrimmage on the Offensive side of the ball to find a way to a backdoor cover at worst.

Kyle Shanahan has proven to be a PlayOff master as the home favourite, but there looks to be enough points to be worth getting behind the Packers for a second week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions Pick: The last Super Wild Card Round game saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 'upset' the Philadelphia Eagles, although the home team were a trendy pick on the day. That means the Buccaneers get the chance to travel to the Detroit Lions in the Divisional Round and Tampa Bay will appreciate the fact that this game is played under a Dome (even if a journalist asked Todd Bowles about how the weather will impact his team, doh).

Make no mistake, the Buccaneers are rightly set as the underdog against a Lions team that held off former Quarter Back Matthew Stafford in a home win last Sunday. That does mean Detroit have a slight advantage when it comes to the rest and recovery, while home advantage is also going to be important for Dan Campbell's team.

All credit has to be given to the Head Coach, but plenty should also be reserved for Jared Goff who has proven he is anything but a bust at Quarter Back. It was his play that helped the Lions to a big road win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the regular season in a game hosted by the Buccaneers, although the Defensive unit also had a really impressive showing when these teams met in October.

Unfortunately for the Lions, injury have lessened the impact being made by the Defensive unit compared with earlier in the regular season. They were able to keep the Rams out of the End Zone at key moments in the second half in their Super Wild Card Round win, but the Lions Secondary are struggling and now face a Tampa Bay team with quality Receivers.

The expectation was that there was going to be a significant drop off for the Receivers with the Buccaneers moving from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield, but the latter has to be given a lot of praise for the season his team have had. While not perfect, Mayfield has made enough plays to believe he can help his team be a lot more competitive than they were in the home loss.

A lot of pressure will be on the Quarter Back considering the struggles the Buccaneers have had when it comes to establishing the run. There were some positive plays in the win over the Eagles on Monday Night Football, but this week they are facing a Detroit Defensive Line that have been stout all season and continue to clamp down on the run very effectively.

This most certainly will allow the Lions to let their pass rushers off the leash and they will be expected to hit Baker Mayfield a lot in this game. The Quarter Back has shown toughness to hang in the pocket and make his throws down the field, but that pressure can lead to mistakes and that will be a huge blow to any hopes the Buccaneers have in trying to earn the upset.

Avoiding those mistakes and playing the field position would be a huge success for Tampa Bay, while you also have to expect Baker Mayfield to get the ball to the likes of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cade Otton in the passing game. The injuries in the Detroit Secondary has meant that teams have been able to pile up the numbers through the air and Baker Mayfield can at least give his team a chance.

Much like the Lions, the Buccaneers Defensive Line will also be looking to make Detroit one-dimensional when it comes to the Offensive game plan. Running the ball has been a huge part of the successes that Jared Goff has had at Quarter Back and the Lions have a tandem at Running Back who have been very effective.

However, the Lions struggled to get much going on the ground when facing Tampa Bay in the regular season and it may be tough for both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in this one. The latter of the two is likely to have a bigger impact in the passing game, but forcing Detroit to become one-dimensional and rely on the Goff arm would feel like a big win for the road underdog.

This is a young Tampa Bay Secondary, but they showed they are playing at a better level than when these teams met in the regular season. Placing Detroit in obvious passing situations should give the Buccaneers a chance to get into the backfield and rush the Quarter Back, although Jared Goff has been pretty careful with his placement and that is also important.

He does have Receivers who can make some big plays in the passing game and the Lions have been much better at home this season.

However, they did fail to cover as the home favourite last week and this Tampa Bay team have been a feisty underdog.

The Buccaneers are not only 9-3 against the spread as an underdog this season, but that becomes 7-1 against the spread when set as the road underdog.

After the win on Monday Night Football, Baker Mayfield has improved to 3-0 against the spread as the underdog in the PlayOffs and that is a record that has to be respected. In his NFL career overall, Mayfield has been more productive in the role of an underdog and he clearly becomes motivated to upset the odds or perceived slights of being an underdog.

Detroit are a very good team and clearly improved under Dan Campbell, but they are dealing with post-season expectations and the Buccaneers may have a more 'care-free' attitude having overachieved to reach the Divisional Round. The Lions did crush the Denver Broncos as a 5.5 point favourite, but failed to cover here against the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers as a bigger favourite.

I would have loved to have gotten a point more for the underdog, but even at this number, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can make enough plays in the passing game to stay with the home favourite.

As long as Baker Mayfield doesn't have a turnover-filled game, the road underdog looks the team to back with the points.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills Pick: This has become a familiar PlayOff match up and it has been clear for a while that the Buffalo Bills were being built to make sure they can beat the Kansas City Chiefs. You can't blame the thinking with the Chiefs costing the Bills a potential Super Bowl a couple of times and clearly being the team to beat in the AFC in recent years.

There is one major difference in this game this year though.

This time the Buffalo Bills are hosting the Kansas City Chiefs who are playing on the road for the first time since Patrick Mahomes became the starting Quarter Back.

It will make a difference in terms of dealing with the home crowd and the noise, but the conditions should not be a major problem for the Chiefs to deal with. Only last week they played in about as bad a cold as you can imagine, but this week everything feels a bit more serene in Buffalo and that should allow both teams to produce their best.

We are still expecting cold and wind, but the Bills and Chiefs cannot use that as an excuse- depending on the Saturday results, the winner of this may even be playing for an opportunity to host the AFC Championship Game.

A bigger concern for Buffalo has to be the host of Defensive injuries picked up in their Monday night win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Wild Card Round. The delay means they have also had two days fewer rest than the Kansas City Chiefs who have already beaten one AFC East team in this PlayOff run.

While the Chiefs have come out largely healthy from last weekend, Buffalo have already ruled out Christian Benford, Taylor Rapp and Baylon Spector, while Rashal Douglas, Taron Johnson and Terrel Bernard are Questionable. The latter three are expected to suit up, but the Linebackers and Defensive Backs are banged up and that should give the Kansas City Chiefs a chance when it comes to the passing game.

This has been inconsistent all season- Patrick Mahomes is still playing at a high level, but his Receivers are young or erratic and it has meant the Chiefs have not been nearly as explosive as previous years. However, the injuries in the Secondary means the Bills may struggle to cover as effectively as usual and even this Receiving corps available to Mahomes could have a strong outing.

Establishing the run first would be ideal and the Chiefs have been very good on the ground down the stretch, even if Head Coach Andy Reid does not stick with the game plan as he perhaps should. Despite some improvements, injury has again lessened the impact the Bills have had in clamping down on the run and so Patrick Mahomes should be able to throw out of third and manageable spots on the field.

Patrick Mahomes has been well protected by the Offensive Line down the stretch too and that should mean the Quarter Back has the time for this Receivers to beat some of the backups that will be operating in the Buffalo Secondary.

Those injuries will have increased the pressure on Josh Allen and the Offensive unit, which will be without big game Gabe Davis for another outing.

There is no doubt that the Josh Allen legs will be as important as his arm in this one as the Bills look to get something going on the ground. After a strong run of games from James Cook, the run game has just bogged down in recent outings and they are now playing against a Chiefs team that have really focused on trying to clamp down on the run.

This still remains the best way to begin to attack Kansas City and the dual-threat of Josh Allen should make it 'easier' for the Bills to try and get things moving on the ground. Being able to do so means the play-action can be employed, while also slowing down the Kansas City pass rush, which has been a huge importance to the Chiefs winning the AFC West again.

A young Kansas City Secondary has continued to play really well and losing the game-stretching threat of Gabe Davis should allow the Chiefs to play with a bit more aggression at the line of scrimmage. Stefon Diggs has not been used as well as he has in the past, but he will still be a focal point of the Defensive Backs and the Kansas City Defensive unit have to believe they can do enough to get the better of the Bills Receivers.

Buffalo will still make some plays, but it does feel like those injuries in the Defensive unit will give the Kansas City Chiefs every chance of earning the upset. They have a Defensive unit of their own which has played as well as any out there, while Patrick Mahomes will point out that his team lost the regular season game to Buffalo after a controversial refereeing call.

The Chiefs are 9-3-1 against the spread when set as the underdog since 2018 and the feeling is that they will be hugely motivated by being the underdog in this PlayOff game, especially as they are still the defending Super Bowl Champions.

For all of their qualities, the Bills are only a middle of the road team when it comes to covering as the home favourite over the last couple of years. They are also just 3-3 against the spread as the home favourite in the post-season and the play has to be taking the points with the expectation being that the Chiefs can make enough plays against a banged up Secondary to keep this one close.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers + 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Kansas City Chiefs + 3 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Wild Card: 5-1, + 3.42 Units (6 Units Staked, + 57% Yield)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 5-2, + 2.55 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.43% Yield)

Week 16: 5-4, + 0.66 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)

Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)

Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

2023 Season: 75-56-4, + 14.45 Units

Australian Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2024 (Saturday 20th January)

Any winning Pick seems to have to go through the wringer before getting over the line, while it is a train straight to the losing station when things have gone wrong.

Taylor Fritz needing about three hundred Break Points, while giving away Breaks as soon as his opponent got to the same position, summed up the way this week has moved.

Another one- how many people would back against Novak Djokovic earning at least one break of serve when opening serve and leading by two sets? Unbelievably he did not even fashion a Break Point having broken serve three times in the first two sets and missed the cover by a single game having won a Tie-Breaker to move through.

Colour me surprised.

It is not making a lot of sense to me- when players who have career records of 4-21 against top 50 Ranked opponents suddenly play better than most top 10 players, you have to wonder what is going on?!

The Australian Open has a history for surprising results, but this has been a tournament when even those winning matches are making it an absolute chore to do so.

Going into the second week, you have to believe that will change, but it just looks like one of those tournaments.

Once again it is a frustrating day when you think of how close a couple of the losing Picks came to a cover... Instead they have produced another losing day, the fifth in six and it just feels like taking one too many body shots when expecting much more of a positive impact.

Grigor Dimitrov - 6.5 games v Nuno Borges: A title win in Brisbane and two solid performances against players that are far better than their World Ranking would suggest will have given Grigor Dimitrov plenty of confidence. The feeling is that this Third Round match is against a weaker opponent than the previous two, but the Bulgarian will do well to focus as he looks to reach the second week at the Australian Open for the first time since 2021.

The focus has to come from the fact that Grigor Dimitrov is facing someone that is Ranked higher than the previous two opponents.

Nuno Borges has also eliminated one of the Seeded players in a crushing Second Round win, although that was a real surprise considering this is a player that has not had the most success on a hard court and his warm up results had been pretty poor. This is another step up for Nuno Borges, but he will be playing with some confidence considering manner of his two wins.

The numbers suggest the run is not sustainable without picking up his form, but Nuno Borges will feel that all of the pressure is on the Bulgarian rather than himself. He can come out with little expectation on his shoulders, but Borges has shown very little form on his surface and especially not when facing top 50 Ranked opponents.

His victory in the Second Round was against such an opponent, but Nuno Borges will know how much happier Grigor Dimitrov is on this surface compared to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

The match is very much expected to be played on the Dimitrov racquet- he has opened 2024 in very strong serving form and that has allowed the former World Number 3 to really take an aggressive and proactive approach to the return of serve. While he has faced 16 Break Points in the first two matches, Grigor Dimitrov has created 37 Break Points of his own and the expectation is that the Bulgarian will have Nuno Borges under pressure for much of the match.

There is a competitive spirit about Nuno Borges that does make him potentially a little dangerous, but Grigor Dimitrov is playing at a very good level and should be able to exert that influence on the outcome of the match.

Hubert Hurkacz - 1.5 sets v Ugo Humbert: Any time a player is forced to go the distance at a Grand Slam, you do have to wonder how much they may have left in the tank going forward. There are a number of players that have spent more time on the court than they may have imagined, but Hubert Hurkacz did not have as long a match as a five setter may indicate.

He came through relatively comfortably at the end and Hubert Hurkacz has made a solid start to his 2024 season as he quietly moves under the radar. That is a surprise considering the Pole goes into the Australian Open as the World Number 9, but it may be down to the fact that Hurkacz has only reached the Quarter Final at one previous Grand Slam and that was when he played in the Wimbledon Semi Final in July 2021.

Hubert Hurkacz did make the second week in two of the four Grand Slams played last season and so he will be first focusing on at least matching his performance at the Australian Open twelve months ago. The exit of Holger Rune has really opened up his little section of the draw, but Hubert Hurkacz cannot afford to take any opponent lightly.

That is especially the case against Ugo Humbert who has won both of his matches in Melbourne in four sets.

The lefty has reached a career high World Ranking at Number 20 and holds that mark going into the Australian Open, but his run in Melbourne was ended in the Third Round twelve months ago and this is another tough looking match for Ugo Humbert.

Ugo Humbert has a 5-8 record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and that means nothing can be taken for granted against the Frenchman. The serve is a weapon that can build pressure on opponents when Humbert is finding his best form and that is going to be very important for him if he is going to earn the upset in this Third Round match.

Previous matches against Hubert Hurkacz suggests the higher Ranked player will have the edge- they did play out a tight match on an indoor court in Basel at the back end of the 2023 season, but Hurkacz had almost double the amount of Break Points and that usually will lead to a victorious effort.

While there isn't a huge amount between the players in the previous matches, Hubert Hurkacz is winning around 7% more points behind serve and that narrow edge makes all of the difference in a sport of inches.

The Hubert Hurkacz return game has been exposed when he has played the better players on the Tour on the hard courts, but this may be the right opponent for him in this Third Round. Tie-Breakers are likely going to be key, but the slightly superior Hubert Hurkacz serve could see him come through in three or four sets.

Tommy Paul - 1.5 sets v Miomir Kecmanovic: This is going to be feeling like something of a revenge tour for Tommy Paul who got the better of Jack Draper in the Second Round having lost both previous matches against him. Now he has to face an opponent who actually beat Tommy Paul right here at the Australian Open two years ago and who has already beaten one Seed in the draw.

It is perhaps an unexpected run for Miomor Kecmanovic, but this is a player who has shown solid ability on the hard courts previously.

The last twelve months has been more difficult for Miomir Kecmanovic who had lost nine of eleven matches played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts. However, the Serb will be feeling much better about his level after beating two of those Ranked opponents already in 2024, including in the last Round, while that win over Tommy Paul at the Australian Open will further his belief.

Tommy Paul has won a more recent match against Miomir Kecmanovic when moving past him at the Cincinnati Masters back in August in a match the American dominated. It was only a wasteful display on the Break Points created that made things look a lot closer on the scoreboard, but Paul will know that he needs to just have a bit more composure when he chances come his way.

That was the only negative out of his win over Jack Draper in the last Round, but Tommy Paul has to be happy with his overall level. He is close to his peak World Ranking, but Paul does have to defend points from a run to the Australian Open Semi Final from last year and he does look capable of getting the better of this opponent.

Nothing comes easy for any player that has had some difficulty on the returning side of his tennis over the last twelve months, although the numbers have been decent enough. He has broken in almost 28% of return games played when only considering players Ranked outside of the top 20 and in matches played on the hard courts and you do have to feel that Tommy Paul will find the answers to come through this match.

Miomir Kecmanovic can be dangerous and his win over Tommy Paul at the Australian Open came in a match that was very competitive. However, it was a match in which Paul had more Break Points and the feeling is that he can earn some revenge by getting through this Third Round match in three or four sets.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tommy Paul - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Emma Navarro - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Clara Burel - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 11-32, - 45.72 Units (86 Units Staked, - 52.16% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2024 (Friday 19th January)

Let's face facts.

This is a page where the idea is to find winning selections for the season, but it has been an incredibly difficult week to digest.

Simply put I have never been on such a poor run at a Grand Slam event and the Australian Open has really been a tournament filled with surprises.

For some reason the top players have not really produced to the level expected, while those who have offered little in warm up events have seemingly kept their best form for Melbourne.

There are no excuses- some bad luck is clear, but there have been a some horrifically poor outcomes to the research and it has to be expected that this is going to be a losing tournament.

The question now is how to prevent it being a truly historically bad start to a season, one from which we will be playing catch up the rest of the way.

Little moments within matches have been all going the other way as would have been imagined- the 'weaker' players are finding a way to win the big points more often than not, which is really not sustainable as the twelve month numbers would indicate. However, the Australian Open has been a tournament that produces plenty of surprises due to its placement in the calendar and so that sprinkling of luck is needed, especially as it has been missing so much this past few days.

It is clearly not ideal that throwing darts at a board to determine selections would likely have produced a much stronger result than we have had so far this week, but will players continue to underperform the numbers?

Andrey Rublev - 1.5 sets v Sebastian Korda: High expectations have always been placed on the shoulders of Sebastian Korda who comes from an extremely sporting family. His sisters continue to lead from the very top of the LPGA Tour, but Sebastian Korda's progress has been held back by injury and he is once again edging towards cracking the top 20 of the Tennis World Rankings.

His father, Petr, is a former World Number 2 on the Tennis Tour and actually won the Australian Open twenty-six years ago so there are some big shoes for Sebastian Korda to fill. Twelve months ago Sebastian Korda reached the Quarter Final at a Grand Slam for the first time right here in Melbourne, and he upset two top 10 Ranked players before being forced to retire within that Quarter Final defeat.

Another top 10 player stands in front of Sebastian Korda and the second week at the 2024 Australian Open and this is going to be a significant challenge for the American.

Andrey Rublev needed five sets to come through his opening match, but has won a title already this year and was much stronger in the Second Round as he dismissed Christopher Eubanks in straight sets. Consistency has been key for the World Number 5 and he has reached the Quarter Final in five of the last six Grand Slams in which Rublev has competed.

There will be a really healthy respect for Sebastian Korda who has an 11-15 record against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts in his career. That is impressive enough considering Korda is still progressing on the Tour, although he will know he needs to improve on the return in those top matches to really get himself moving up the World Rankings.

You may not want to read too much into the Andrey Rublev 2-0 head to head advantage over Sebastian Korda considering they have not faced each other since October 2022. Both have improved though and Andrey Rublev has tended to beat those players that he is expected to on the hard courts, which is backed up by a 25-5 record against players Ranked outside the top 20 on this surface.

That record remains strong over the last twelve months when looking at results against players Ranked outside the top 10 (30-8). Very strong serving numbers have been backed up by the aggressive return of serve and it should give Andrey Rublev the opportunities to win this one in either three or four sets.

My lean is that Sebastian Korda is more likely to win at least a set, but Andrey Rublev should be able to build on a strong Second Round win and likely cover the set handicap in this Third Round match.

Alex De Minaur - 7.5 games v Flavio Cobolli: Any time you are able to earn a win over Novak Djokovic will give you massive confidence, but it will also have raised expectations around Alex De Minaur at his home Grand Slam. With Nick Kyrgios injured and Ashleigh Barty very much enjoying her retirement, Alex De Minaur is the big Australian hope at the Open in 2024.

He has played well in the first couple of matches in Melbourne and Alex De Minaur will go into this Third Round match as a strong favourite too.

After beating an Italian in the last Round, Alex De Minaur faces another player from that nation, although Flavio Cobolli is a Qualifier who is Ranked way below Matteo Arnaldi.

He is only 21 years old though and Flavio Cobolli will be very confident having won three Qualifiers to enter the main draw and then seeing off two opponents Ranked much higher than himself. One of those wins came against a top 20 Ranked player in Nicolas Jarry, but facing Alex De Minaur and the home crowd will be a much different challenge for Flavio Cobolli.

It has to be said that the run has come out of left field considering his previous hard court experience- the majority of his tennis on this surface was either played on the Challenger Tour or in Qualifiers last year and Flavio Cobolli was beaten in the opening Qualifying Rounds at both the Australian Open and US Open.

Flavio Cobolli has to be respected though- he has a decent serve and gets plenty out of his return game so this is going to be a tough match for Alex De Minaur, even in his current form.

However, Alex De Minaur has proven that he can handle the expectations on his shoulders and looked really good in the Second Round. Matching that margin of victory will be almost impossible to achieve, but his numbers have been very strong in hard court matches played against players outside the top 50 and then top 100 over the last twelve months.

The Australian is not going to overpower you with his tennis, but he will look to wear down Flavio Cobolli with his know-how around the hard court. His numbers against those players lower down the Rankings have shown that Alex De Minaur has the qualities to back up his serve, but also will find a way to get his teeth into return games and that may give him the edge to win and cover this mark.

With the home crowd behind him, Alex De Minaur can reach the Fourth Round at the Australian Open for a third year in a row.

Taylor Fritz - 4.5 games v Fabian Marozsan: There was a high hope in the United States that Taylor Fritz could be the player that ended the long wait for a men's Grand Slam Champion from the nation. He has managed to reach as high as World Number 5, but Taylor Fritz has perhaps struggled to deal with the weight of expectation at the biggest tournaments and his record is pretty abysmal.

Despite his career high World Ranking, Taylor Fritz has yet to reach a Grand Slam Semi Final, while he has only managed to make it through to two Quarter Finals.

In fact, Fritz has only made it into the second week of a Grand Slam on three occasions previously and that is clearly a massive concern when backing him to do that this week at the Australian Open.

Beating Fabian Marozsan will give Taylor Fritz a place in the second week of this Grand Slam, but he cannot take anything for granted having needed five sets in the First Round against an opponent Fritz should have beaten much more comfortably. The Second Round win was more impressive, but Fabian Marozsan has beaten a former Grand Slam Champion and one Seed to make it through to the Third Round and that will have given him plenty of confidence.

The draw might have helped considering Marin Cilic is only recently back from an injury and Francisco Cerundolo is struggling for form, but Fabian Marozsan had to win those matches and has done so very efficiently.

Warm up losses to Roberto Bautista Agut and Ben Shelton are a little concerning and there is little doubt that this is another step up for the Hungarian.

However, he did beat veteran Richard Gasquet at the US Open before losing in four sets to Adrian Mannarino and Fabian Marozsan may need some help from Taylor Fritz if he is going to secure an upset.

A strong run to the Quarter Final at the Shanghai Masters might have just given Fabian Marozsan the belief to compete with the top names on the Tour, but he is just 8-8 against top 100 Ranked players on the hard courts over the last twelve months. It is the return which has made Marozsan competitive, but a strong serving day from Taylor Fritz should give the American the edge.

Taylor Fritz has shown that over the last year by holding 92% of service games played on the hard courts against opponents Ranked outside the top 50. The record is 20-4 after a poor end to the season, but Fritz should have plenty of belief of his own that he can impose his tennis on this inexperienced opponent.

Last year at the US Open, Taylor Fritz beat four players Ranked outside of the top 50 in his run to his second Grand Slam Quarter Final and the feeling is that he will have a bit too much all around for Fabian Marozsan in this Third Round match.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Taylor Fritz - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ben Shelton - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Magdalena Frech - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 8-27, - 40.48 Units (70 Units Staked, - 57.83% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2024 (Thursday 18th January)

It is getting hard to see.

But an unbelievable first four days at the Australian Open continues to frustrate at a huge level.

Adrian Mannarino and Gael Monfils failures to get the job done as expected really are the ones that got away and prevented it from being a really poor day, but ultimately those bits of luck are going against me as much as the poor Picks.

In a long season you are always going to make a few Picks that feel wrong after watching even ten minutes of a match, but when the luck is seemingly against you too, it really does make it very hard to accept.

Let's face it, Mannarino was two sets up, had not faced a Break Point in those sets and looked comfortable- how many people would have predicted that he would then lose 6-1, 6-2 in the next couple of sets? Simply put, it doesn't make any sense and ultimately that doesn't feel like a bad Pick, but feels like a bad outcome, especially as he rallied in the Fifth Set to move through anyway.

Gael Monfils lost only six more points than his opponent and is somehow dumped out in straight sets, yet a couple of days before Felix Auger-Aliassime won double digit more points than Dominic Thiem and was dragged into a Fifth Set himself. The inches are minor in the sport, but it really does feel difficult to take when they seemingly are all trending away from you.

It could not have been a worse start to this opening Grand Slam of the 2024 season and some questions have to be asked about what has gone wrong. There have been tournaments in the past where you just don't feel too good about the approach being taken to finding the selections, but the first four days has seen an inordinate amount of bad luck splattered around.

However, it is not a path that I will continue to walk down without some indication that things are going to turn around and Day 5 is important with that in mind. Twelve months ago the Australian Open proved to be a very good start to the year, but it has been tough viewing so far with the losses piling up at a ridiculously fast rate.

Hopefully Day 5 is much more positive in what is shaping up to be one of the worst Grand Slam performances on these pages of all time.

Holger Rune - 6.5 games v Arthur Cazaux: Any player that has picked up a title and then battled through a First Round match at a Grand Slam has to be respected. Arthur Cazaux's title win came in a Challenger event, but a win over a top 50 Ranked opponent to get his Australian Open campaign underway will have given him a lot of confidence.

He will need all of that if he is going to get the better of one of the top Seeds in the draw, especially as Arthur Cazaux has not enjoyed a lot of success against the stronger players on the Tour. Over the last twelve months, Arthur Cazaux has lost four of his six matches played on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents and he was well beaten by Andrey Rublev at the US Open.

Arthur Cazaux has a serve that can be a big weapon for him, but he has struggled on the return of serve against the stronger players.

More of that is to be expected in this Second Round match against Holger Rune who came through his opening match in four sets. The youngster has a decent serve, although Rune will know that there is room for improvement in his level on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

In something of a surprise, Holger Rune only owns a 4-3 record against players Ranked outside the top 100 on the hard courts in that time span. The serve will likely give Arthur Cazaux some problems, but it should be noted that Rune does get plenty more out of his return game against those players Ranked outside of the top 100 and this is something that should show up in this Second Round contest.

The feeling is that Holger Rune is going to have to deal with a competitive start from Arthur Cazaux and that the first couple of sets could be very closely fought. However, the extra qualities that have taken Rune into the top ten of the World Rankings will likely shine through as the match continues.

It was pretty much how the US Open match between Cazaux and Andrey Rublev played out and Holger Rune should be able to do just enough to cover this handicap mark.

Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 games v Emil Ruusuvuori: It has been a very good start to the 2024 season Emil Ruusuvuori who reached the Final in Hong Kong and who came from a set down to win his First Round match at the Australian Open.

There has long been a lot of expectation on the shoulders of Emil Ruusuvuori, but his highest career World Ranking is Number 37 eight months ago.

His numbers on the hard courts over the last twelve months have been very good, although Emil Ruusuvuori has struggled when going up against the very top players. That was the case when he was beaten in the Hong Kong Final by Andrey Rublev and over the last twelve months the numbers have taken a serious dent when Emil Ruusuvuori has faced top 20 Ranked players.

So while Emil Ruusuvuori has held 80% of his service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months, that number dips to 65% when only considering matches against top 20 Ranked opponents.

That is what the Finnish player is facing in the Second Round when going up against Daniil Medvedev who came through a tougher than expected First Round match. Brutal conditions in Melbourne made things difficult, as well as the fact that Medvedev was facing an opponent playing the match of his career to date, but the World Number 3 was in control as the match developed.

The factor of the First Round match being the first competitive outing of the year perhaps contributed to the test that Daniil Medvedev faced and he should be better for having put that win under his belt.

The match up is also one that Daniil Medvedev will enjoy having won both previous matches against Emil Ruusuvuori and in relatively comfortable fashion too.

It is the return of serve where Daniil Medvedev has kept Emil Ruusuvuori under pressure and he has broken in 56% of return games played against this opponent. At the same time Medvedev has used a big serve to dominant effect and he should be able to exert his control over Emil Ruusuvuori over the course of this best of five set match.

Conditions in Melbourne should be much better for the players on Thursday and Daniil Medvedev can produce a big win.

Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: The only time these two players met on the Tour came on the hard courts at the Cincinnati Masters in 2021 and was won by Lorenzo Sonego. He reached his career best World Ranking a couple of months later, but Carlos Alcaraz has come on leaps and bounds in the time since these two last played on another in a competitive match.

Back then Carlos Alcaraz was Ranked outside of the top 50, but he is now the World Number 2 and a multiple time Grand Slam Champion. Plenty of people will be backing the Spaniard to break Novak Djokovic's dominance at the Australian Open, although Carlos Alcaraz has not had a big run in Melbourne in his career so far.

That should change if his comfortable win over Richard Gasquet is anything to go by, although Carlos Alcaraz will know the challenges are only going to get tougher the further he goes in the tournament.

It was his first match in 2024 and Alcaraz needed a bit of time to get into his rhythm and eventually pull clear of the challenge presented by Gasquet. He will be better for having that match under his belt and Carlos Alcaraz has shown he is very comfortable playing on the hard courts.

We know what kind of match we will get from Carlos Alcaraz, but the test for Lorenzo Sonego is to try and up his own level and see if he can give the World Number 2 a real work out. The Italian did well to beat Daniel Evans in the First Round, but Sonego had a pretty poor time in the warm up events prior to the Australian Open and has been an average player on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

The serve can be a potent weapon for Lorenzo Sonego, but he has not really been able to find any real consistency on the returning side of the court.

Lorenzo Sonego won one of his six matches played against top ten Ranked players on the hard courts over the last twelve months. He has still managed to hold 77% of his service games played in those matches, which suggests Sonego can keep this one competitive, although he will be tested by the Carlos Alcaraz ability to get plenty of balls back in play.

It is a big handicap mark considering the capabilities Lorenzo Sonego has as a server, but Carlos Alcaraz has shown that he can break opponents down. His returning numbers against players Ranked outside the top 20 on the hard courts are impressive and Alcaraz may also feel that the best of five set format gives him the time to really begin to dominate.

This should give Carlos Alcaraz an opportunity to cover the handicap line set as the Spaniard progresses to the Third Round.

MY PICKS: Holger Rune - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Arthur Fils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Ugo Humbert - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jack Draper @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Emma Navarro - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 7-18, - 24.14 Units (50 Units Staked, - 48.28% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2024 (Wednesday 17th January)

The first two days at the Australian Open were tremendously poor, but the First Round action concluded on Tuesday with a 5-1 run to at least get the tournament moving in a positive direction.

However, after the really poor run to open, there is still a long way back over the coming two weeks and there is little doubt that some luck will be needed.

It has been a frustrating start thanks to some near misses- there are at least three matches I can point to right away where the Picks were one or two points away from a win, but instead things spiralled out of control within those matches.

Sometimes there is nothing you can do about that- Felix Auger-Aliassime should have won in three sets, but was pushed into five, while Alexandre Muller had two Break Points that would have allowed him to serve out the match in the fourth set, and instead failed to capitalise and lost his serve, and the set, in the very next game.

As I said, there are matches that clearly stand out, but you can only do the research and make the selections and hope a little bit of luck is on your side.

The Day 3 Picks at least offers some momentum, but there is a mountain to trek to get truly back on track as the Second Round matches begin.

The big story through the First Round at the Australian Open is actually about an off court issue- Alexander Zverev is set to stand trial for a domestic abuse issue against a former girlfriend in May.

This has been a thorny issue for the player and the ATP for several months already, but the fact that his peers voted Alexander Zverev onto a representative body has really raised some eyebrows.

Unsurprisingly many of the questions to all players were focused on the Zverev issue.

My own personal feeling is that you cannot really expect to stop him playing on the Tour until he is officially found guilty. No matter how you feel, and I personally feel domestic abuse is abhorrent, it does feel that the evidence needs to be heard.

Mason Greenwood's situation at Manchester United was clearly very different to most others because we all heard the audio and so something immediate had to be done. With the Alexander Zverev situation, there is less clear evidence in the public domain, although the prosecutors clearly believe they have enough and so you have to let it play out through the justice system.

The worrying part is that he was voted onto the Player Council while these allegations have been around him and that is where the criticism is really finding a voice. While he is innocent until proven guilty, it is clearly not the time to be promoting Zverev into leadership roles and he should have been well aware of that himself, let alone others actually voting him in.

You have to feel this is going to overshadow every match he plays between now and the trial, while it is going to be interesting what kind of reaction he gets from the stands for the rest of this tournament and beyond.

Personally I think he has to be allowed to keep playing for now- but steps should be taken for him to move out of a limelight position and perhaps get Zverev focusing on clearing his name rather than being asked to lead his peers right now.

Gael Monfils - 1.5 games v Tomas Martin Etcheverry: It is hard to know how highly Tomas Martin Etcheverry performed in his win over Andy Murray- the performance was solid enough, but Murray was so far below par that you do have to wonder if Etcheverry was good or whether Murray was just really poor?

He is one of the Seeded players in the Australian Open draw, but the fact remains that Tomas Martin Etcheverry has not had the best hard court results. The win over a former US Open Champion will give him belief, but Etcheverry has to expect the next veteran to be faced to be much more energised than Andy Murray was in an very disappointing effort.

It will not take much for Gael Monfils to get the crowd on his side in this Second Round match and the Frenchman will be very happy with his own First Round performance. Like Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Gael Monfils was able to come through what looked a difficult match in straight sets and it should mean both players head onto the court with confidence.

We are very early into the 2024 season and neither of these players came into the first Grand Slam of the year with a victory to their name. That has changed in Melbourne, which is another confidence booster, while the edge has to be with Gael Monfils who has played some strong hard court tennis throughout his career.

Winning a title in Stockholm on an indoor hard court in the second half of 2023 saw Gael Monfils beginning to find some of his stronger form. He has nothing to defend in terms of points over the next few weeks so there is plenty of motivation to improve the World Ranking with a couple of victories in this draw and Gael Monfils has the athleticism to get the better of this opponent.

You have to wonder if Tomas Martin Etcheverry can serve as well as he did in the First Round for another couple of hours when the Second Round gets going. Numbers over the last twelve months suggests that it is unlikely, while Etcheverry is not the strongest return player on the hard courts.

Gael Monfils has struggled with his own return, but has had more success on that side of the court over the last six months. The expectation is that will show up here and the veteran can find a way into the Third Round and likely another clash with Novak Djokovic.

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 games v Jesper De Jong: A strong First Round win will have given Jannik Sinner plenty of belief that he has the tennis to win a maiden Grand Slam title.

Bigger tests are to come for Jannik Sinner, but this is going to feel like a step down from the First Round when the Italian takes on Qualifier Jesper De Jong in the Second Round.

You have to only credit the 23 year old Dutchman for winning three Qualifying matches and then coming from a set down to win his First Round match. The victory over Pedro Cachin is the first that Jesper De Jong has had over a top 100 Ranked opponent, but there are factors at play that will make this a considerably tougher match up for the underdog.

For starters, Pedro Cachin is not exactly known for his hard court prowess, while De Jong is playing someone Ranked higher than World Number 69 for the first time. There is no mistaking how much tougher it is going to feel for Jesper De Jong when taking on someone of the talent of Jannik Sinner, who is a fixture inside the top 10 of the World Rankings.

The unfamiliarity with the opponent may make things a little tougher for Jannik Sinner, but the Italian is someone who wants to impose his tennis on every player he faces on the Tour. His style will put a lot of pressure on an opponent that is not used to facing the best players on a regular basis, while Jannik Sinner has won sixteen matches in a row (that have been completed) against players Ranked outside of the top 100 when scheduled to play them on a hard court.

Jannik Sinner has maintained strong serving numbers in those matches, but most impressive is the huge amount of breaks of serve that he puts on the board.

It means Jesper De Jong is going to have to serve really well to keep Sinner at bay, but that is tough to do over the best of five set format and the Number 4 Seed can secure a couple of sets by comfortable margins.

Covering this spread is clearly not going to be easy, but Sinner could be even better with a match under his belt and he can find the breaks that will be needed.

Adrian Mannarino - 5.5 games v Jaume Munar: A First Round match that lasted over three and a half hours is far from ideal, but Adrian Mannarino may feel pretty good having come from 2-1 down to beat Stan Wawrinka in five sets. Beating a former Australian Open Champion will give the veteran some confidence, and the reward for Adrian Mannarino is a very winnable Second Round match.

Jaume Munar has to be given some credit for finding a way to win his own First Round match as a significant underdog- he had a decent year on the hard courts in 2022, but the Spaniard has struggled on the surface over the last twelve months.

That includes failing to Qualify for Hong Kong and Auckland after entering those Rounds, while Munar won just a single match on the hard courts on the main ATP Tour in 2023. Even that was against someone Ranked at Number 489 and the Spaniard had some poor numbers on the hard courts.

It makes the First Round win an important one for him, but backing that up will be tough for Jaume Munar, who has lost his sole previous match against Adrian Mannarino.

That was played on a clay court in Madrid, but Adrian Mannarino should have a bigger advantage on this surface.

Adrian Mannarino will have a challenge to back up his First Round win having invested as much as he did into that victory. However, he has continued to play well when facing opponents outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings on the hard courts and he should be able to push his way through this match in either three or four sets.

Even a four set win would give Adrian Mannarino to cover this big handicap mark and he should be able to exert enough pressure on Jaume Munar to earn the place in the Third Round.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Adrian Mannarino - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 6-12, - 13.74 Units (36 Units Staked, - 38.17% Yield)