NFL Week 3 Picks 2023 (September 21-25)

First it was Aaron Rodgers.

Next it is Nick Chubb.

The NFL is a brutally tough year for all of the athletes involved and it is really difficult to watch some of the biggest names suffer serious injury. They will be the players that make the headlines, and it was good to hear Saquon Barkley has escaped a season ending injury of his own, but there are players throughout the League who are going down with long-term injuries.

Once again, it is the main reason it is so difficult to pick the Super Bowl Champion in August with the outlook for any team changing drastically. The Jets looked terrible without Rodgers amidst Zach Wilson continuing to struggle, although it feels like they will have to make a move to bring in another Quarter Back to give this team a chance, while the Cleveland Browns will have a hard time without their best Offensive player.

The Giants might have put a big comeback on the board in Week 2, but would not have been the same team without Saquon Barkley if he was forced to miss the entirety of the season.

Last season we saw how quickly things changed for the Miami Dolphins when Tua Tagovailoa continued to deal with concussion issues and it is the main reason my enthusiasm is still being contained after a very good 2-0 start. Winning games behind a big Offensive effort in Week 1 and then a strong Defensive effort in Week 2 is very encouraging, but the Dolphins will need better health than last season and it would give them every chance of reaching the Super Bowl.

There are some good looking teams in the AFC, while the NFC continues to look like a three horse race between the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. Those three teams looked the best in the Conference going into the season and nothing has changed through the first two weeks of the 2023 season, although it is again wise to point out how quickly things can shift with an injury or two.

Week 3 begins with a Thursday Night Football game between two NFC teams playing after road wins on Sunday.

Further selections will be placed in this thread in the coming days as we begin another busy week before the first London games of the 2023 season in Week 4.

It was a mixed week for the NFL Picks, but a couple of those selections could have easily turned my way with late plays changing the eventual outcome.

Hopefully there is better to come in Week 3, beginning with this Thursday Night Football game.

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: At one stage it looked like the New York Giants (1-1) were on their way to a second blowout loss of the 2023 season as they trailed the Arizona Cardinals by 21 points into the second half. All credit has to be given to the team for fighting back and earning the victory on a late Field Goal, even if they missed the cover of the line, but it may be tough to replicate just days later with a game on Thursday Night Football.

Putting in as much of an emotional effort, as well as a physical one, will have taken something from the New York Giants. The win will have made them feel better, but they are facing the San Francisco 49ers (2-0) in their first home game of the season and the limited time to recover certainly favours the home team.

The Giants have stuck around on the West Coast in preparation for the Thursday Night Football schedule in Week 3, but they may have to do without Saquon Barkley who was injured late in the win over the Cardinals. The Running Back was vitally important to the recovery made by New York and the only positive news for the Giants is that the ankle injury picked up in the Week 2 victory is not expected to keep Barkley out for too long.

Even now, Brian Daboll has refused to rule out Barkley playing on Thursday, but that is a long shot and it would make sense to keep him out with the additional time between Week 3 and Week 4 games on the short week.

The pressure will be on Daniel Jones, who had struggled in the first half against Arizona as he continues to operate behind a shaky Offensive Line. That does not bode well for the Giants against this San Francisco Defensive unit, which may be the best in the NFL, and keeping the 49ers pass rush out of the backfield is going to be an almost impossible task for this Giants Offensive Line.

It is very difficult to imagine the Giants being able to establish the run with any kind of consistency, even if Daniel Jones is capable of some big gains on the ground himself. Without Saquon Barkley, Matt Breida will be looking to make an impact against his former team, but the 49ers Defensive Line is tough and it could be a long day for the entire Giants Offensive unit.

Unfortunately for fans of New York, the San Francisco Offense is not expected to have many issues moving the ball up and down the field.

Kyle Shanahan designs some very creative Offensive plays, but he may lean on a more traditional approach in this one with Christian McCaffrey expected to have a big game on the ground. The 49ers are moving the ball at 5.6 yards per carry early in the 2023 season and they are facing a New York Defensive Line that were getting run over by the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2.

This time the Giants are also facing a Quarter Back who has been comfortable in the San Francisco system and Brock Purdy is likely to be playing in a relatively clean pocket. Brandon Aiyuk could be absent for the 49ers, but Purdy is expected to have a solid game operating from short down and distance more often than not and the San Francisco 49ers look capable of covering what is a big spread.

The Giants did win the last time they played a road game in San Francisco, but that was back in November 2018 and they were blown out at home by the 49ers in September 2020.

This is a spread that leaves a team open to a backdoor cover, but the feeling is that the San Francisco 49ers could pile up the points and make a few more plays on the Defensive side of the ball. Some could be concerned with this being a game set between two Divisional games for the 49ers, but San Francisco will not be too concerned with an upcoming game against Arizona and they may be able to shut down the Giants Offensive output for long enough to clear this mark.

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns Pick: A devastating injury to Nick Chubb has left the Cleveland Browns (1-1) wondering what they can achieve in the 2023 season. Losing the best Offensive player clearly affected the team in the loss at the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football, but it also means having to put more pressure on the shoulders of Deshaun Watson, who has yet to reach the levels he was producing with the Houston Texans prior to the allegations about his conduct which meant missing almost two years of playing time.

The Quarter Back is still speaking with plenty of confidence, but the play on the field has been erratic and it will be even tougher for him if teams are not focusing on Nick Chubb and shutting down one of the top Running Backs in the NFL.

Kareem Hunt has returned to Cleveland and his familiarity with the system should help, but he isn't Nick Chubb. The Offensive Line has opened some big holes for the running game, although they are a little banged up and trying to move the ball on the ground against this Tennessee Titans (1-1) Defensive Line is going to be tough. You have to believe Hunt and Jerome Ford will have some success, but the Titans have been tough up front and they may feel that locking down the run will make this all the easier to shut off the Cleveland Offensive game plan.

On the other hand, this could be a big opportunity for Deshaun Watson considering some of the yards that the Titans have given up through the air. Amari Cooper is banged up and potentially limited in Week 3, and the Offensive Line has really had issues keeping teams from out of the backfield, but Watson could have some success when he does get a bit of time.

Having that time is perhaps not going to be easy against this Tennessee pass rush and the Titans have to feel the Defensive unit can give them every chance of earning the potential upset on the road.

In saying that, we have to see more out of the Tennessee Offense and that may be tough if Derrick Henry is not able to suit up. Even with Henry in the line up, the big Running Back will be hitting the Cleveland Defensive Line that is allowing just 3.2 yards per carry on the season and this is an entire unit that has played well in both games against the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers this season.

Ryan Tannehill is difficult to trust considering the form of the veteran early this season- he is not being helped by the Offensive Line which has been stronger in run blocking compared to pass protection, but Tannehill has also made some poor decisions when throwing and it has led to Interceptions.

There were signs of improvement in the win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2, but Tannehill struggled on the road in the loss at the New Orleans Saints. This Cleveland Defense is perhaps even better than the one the Saints are running out onto the field and they can get pressure up front which may rattle the veteran into more mistakes.

A low-scoring game is likely in this one between two tough Defensive units and it could come down to a mistake or two in determining a winner. The Browns have yet to lose two in a row since Deshaun Watson became their Quarter Back, but losing Nick Chubb for the season will have sent shockwaves through the locker room.

The Browns can bounce back and win this one, but the Titans look a solid team to back with the points. Head Coach Mike Vrabel has a solid record as the underdog, both outright and against the spread, and it feels Tennessee can make enough plays to keep this one close at the very least.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: You have to immediately note the fact that the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) have failed to cover as a home favourite in the Trevor Lawrence era at Quarter Back, while the team are travelling to London next week for back to back games.

This could be a potential distraction, but you have to believe the Jaguars will be focused seeing as they are playing a Divisional rival and were just beaten by the Kansas City Chiefs. They would have circled that home game with the Chiefs having been beaten by the eventual Super Bowl Champions in the PlayOffs and coming up short will have hurt, but the Jaguars should be motivated to compete in Week 3.

They are big favourites to beat the Houston Texans (0-2) who have started the CJ Stroud era with a couple of relatively comfortable defeats. The loss last week at home against the Indianapolis Colts was a concern considering the Texans had been narrow favourites against their Divisional rivals, but this is going to be a transitional season for the team and every week it is going to be a learning curve for the young Quarter Back.

CJ Stroud did throw for almost 400 passing yards and had 2 Touchdown passes last week and this Jaguars Secondary is one that will give up some yards. However, the pressure may be all on the Quarter Back, who can scramble around, especially if the Texans are not able to establish the run.

Doing so will not be easy against the Jacksonville Defensive Line- the Houston Offensive Line is banged up and not going to be at full strength in Week 3 and so it is a big ask for the Texans to get much going on the ground. The Offensive Line issues have also meant CJ Stroud has been hit far more than the Houston Texans would have liked and the Jaguars can certainly get into the backfield and prevent Stroud from having the time to attack the Secondary.

While the Offensive unit may have some issues finding consistency, the Houston Defensive unit have really knuckled down and played pretty well. Running the ball well is going to be key for Jacksonville, who have not really established the ground game as well as they would have liked through the first couple of weeks of the season, but doing so will just ease any pressure on Trevor Lawrence at Quarter Back.

It will also give Lawrence a chance to use play-action to try and attack a Secondary which has played well through the first couple of weeks of the season. Of course it should be noted that Houston have played Baltimore and Indianapolis and neither team have really had a lot of success throwing the ball early on, but Trevor Lawrence has a solid set of Receivers that should offer a much bigger challenge to the Texans.

Calvin Ridley has returned with a vengeance and the Jaguars should be able to offer up more of a test for the Houston Secondary, even if Jacksonville are still working their way into the season.

A balanced Jacksonville Offensive performance led to a big road win over the Houston Texans on New Year's Day, but the expectation is that Trevor Lawrence will be able to have a bit more success throwing. That win snapped a long losing run to the Houston Texans and the Jaguars are capable of backing that up as they look to head to London with some momentum behind them.

Covering as a favourite has been tough, but the Jaguars can make enough plays to do that against the Houston Texans with the Defensive Line likely to set up some short fields that will help the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence will be looking to bounce back from the loss in Week 2 and Jacksonville can find the points to cover here.

Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Back to back road wins to start the season looked tough on paper, but the Miami Dolphins (2-0) have won impressively at the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots. They have picked up the victory in different ways in those two games and that will be hugely encouraging to the fans with some already thinking this is a Super Bowl team in the making.

Health will be key for the Dolphins and they play at home for the first time this season when hosting the Denver Broncos (0-2).

A couple of plays landing a different way would have seen Sean Payton and Russell Wilson's relationship begin with two wins, but the Broncos have fallen to defeat at home against the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders and already feel like they are playing catch up.

Being in the AFC West means the Broncos can ill-afford to drop another game to fall into a 0-3 hole, but this is a tough place to pick up a victory.

Sean Payton was brought in as Head Coach with the task of 'fixing' Russell Wilson, but it has not worked out as planned so far this season. There have been one or two positive signs from the Quarter Back in the loss in Week 2, but the worry will be the stretches of poor play coming from the veteran, who is also on a very big deal.

The pressure can be relieved if the Denver Broncos are able to run the ball and they will feel that is possible against this Miami Defensive Line. The Dolphins played the run pretty well last week, but are still dealing with some injuries on the Line and this Denver Offensive Line has been able to open up one or two big lanes for Javonte Williams.

Russell Wilson is no longer the scrambling Quarter Back of his prime with the Seattle Seahawks, which is perhaps holding the Broncos back. He has been holding onto the ball a little too long and not able to move away from the pass rush pressure like he once did, but Wilson will be helped if the Broncos are able to push the ball on the ground and give him third and manageable down and distance to deal with.

Vic Fangio may not be talking about the 'revenge' factor, but the former Denver Head Coach may want his Defensive unit in Miami to really get after the Broncos. He will know that the Broncos Offensive Line have had some issues in pass protection and the Dolphins are more than capable of getting into Russell Wilson's backfield, especially if the Broncos become one-dimensional with their play-calling.

Overall you do have to think the Broncos can run the ball and at least give themselves a chance to stay with the Miami Dolphins in this one. The trenches tend to be very important in determining games in the NFL and the Denver Broncos may feel they can run the ball, but also do pretty well at stopping the Miami rushing attack.

This could be pretty important this week with Jayden Waddle expected to have to sit out for the Dolphins as he goes through the concussion protocol. It might mean needing to rely on the run a little more than the Miami Dolphins might have done otherwise, although the Tua Tagovailoa connection with Tyreek Hill is still expected to flourish.

The health of Tagovailoa is going to be very important in determining how the 2023 season is going to develop for the Dolphins and he is playing behind an Offensive Line which is offering up plenty of protection. Mike McDaniels is also a strong Offensive mind who is helping his Quarter Back by getting the ball out of his hands pretty quickly at times and the Dolphins will feel this Denver Secondary is still vulnerable after watching how the Washington Commanders attacked them last week.

It should mean the Miami Dolphins are still going to have plenty of Offensive success, even if Waddle has to sit out, and you can imagine plenty will back them to win this by at least a Touchdown. However, the Denver Broncos look capable of scoring a few points of their own and the backdoor cover will certainly be available to the road team.

This is especially so considering the spot in which this game is scheduled- the Dolphins have beaten two potential PlayOff rivals on the road, including a Divisional rival on prime time in Week 2, and Miami are next facing the Buffalo Bills on the road. That is an important game that could be a major factor in working out which of these teams is capable of winning the Division and it could mean the Dolphins are distracted and not focusing so much on the blowout, even for Defensive Co-Ordinator Vic Fangio.

Miami should win, but Sean Payton can design enough plays to help the Broncos keep this one close on the scoreboard. The Broncos can control the clock with their running attack and make sure they keep the Miami Offensive unit on the sidelines for long periods to cool down and the road team could make the points count.

MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 10 Points @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jacksonville Jaguars - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Denver Broncos + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Arizona Cardinals + 13 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Kansas City Chiefs - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Las Vegas Raiders - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

College Football Week 3 Picks 2023 (September 16th)

The College Football season got underway at the end of August for some teams and in early September for most others, but we have already seen a number of results that will have changed the fortunes of some of the favourites to reach the PlayOffs later in the year.

In recent years the likes of the Alabama Crimson Tide and Clemson Tigers have been regular names in the final four PlayOff selection, but both missed out last year.

Both have already lost games to the Texas Longhorns and Duke Blue Devils respectively in the opening two weeks of the season and that means both are under significant pressure. It would actually be an upset if the Crimson Tide and Tigers are able to avoid a second loss between now and the end of the season with the likes of the Georgia Bulldogs and Florida State Seminoles looking strong in the respective Conferences.

The win for the Longhorns will have given that fanbase a huge boost in confidence and Texas will be feeling like they have laid an early marker to the SEC that they will soon be joining.

The Big 12 is not an easy Conference to negotiate, but Texas have momentum from that win in Alabama, while teams like the USC Trojans, Ohio State Buckeyes, Michigan Wolverines and Penn State Nittany Lions will believe there are spaces to earn in the PlayOff at the end of the season.

We are still very early into the new season and things will change very quickly with some big games to come and excitement will be build once the majority of teams get their Divisional schedules going.

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: Three of the current top seven in the NCAA Football Rankings reside in the Big Ten East Division and the Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0) are the 'lowest' of those teams. It is going to be an incredible challenge for Penn State to finish above both the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines in this Division, let alone to go on and win the Big Ten Championship Game and maybe even take part in the College Football PlayOffs.

The Nittany Lions have opened with two wins in 2023 against opponents they have been heavily favoured to beat and they have a seven game winning streak to take into Week 3. However, this is the first road test of the season for Penn State and the first Big Ten game to be played, so there is a challenge to be overcome despite the fact that the Nittany Lions are down as pretty big favourites.

They actually had a three game winning run in this series ended when last facing the Illinois Fighting Illini (1-1) in 2021, but this current group look to be a work in progress. A narrow home win over the Toledo Rockets would not have been that inspiring, but the Fighting Illini were pretty well beaten at the Kansas Jayhawks in Week 2 as Illinois prepare to get Conference play under way too.

One of the big problems facing Illinois on Saturday is getting the Defensive unit back on track against a Penn State team who have scored at least 30 points in nine games in a row. Big expectations might have been on the shoulders of Drew Allar taking over as the Quarter Back for the Nittany Lions, but he looks like he is capable of matching those and is facing an Illinois Secondary that has really been struggling.

Drew Allar will feel he can step up when he is called to make plays, but the Quarter Back might just have to lean on the Offensive Line and the strong rushing attack we have already seen from the Nittany Lions. They have been able to rip off some big gains on the ground and now have to face an Illinois Defensive Line allowing 5.2 yards per carry.

Keeping Allar in third and manageable will just make things that much easier for the Quarter Back, while play-action could see Drew Allar look to make some big plays down the field. There have been holes to exploit in the Fighting Illini Secondary and you have to expect Penn State to have a really good balance when they have the ball in their Offensive hands.

This will shift the attention onto the Illinois Offense, although Head Coach Bret Bielema is clearly happy with what he has seen so far. An inexperienced Quarter Back in Luke Altmyer has provided a dual-threat out of the position, but this Penn State Defensive unit is the best he would have had to deal with in 2023 so far.

Leaning on the running game would be the ideal approach for Luke Altmyer, but that only works as long as this game is competitive. Even then, the Fighting Illini are going to be facing a Penn State Defensive Line that has been restricting opponents to 3.6 yards per carry and that may mean Altmyer has to make more plays with his arm.

So far the Nittany Lions have proven to be an effective Secondary and they are helped by the pass rush pressure being generated. You have to believe the Nittany Lions will be able to get into the backfield and pile on the hits on Luke Altmyer with the Illinois Offensive Line struggling when it comes to pass protection rather than run blocking.

This is where things could begin to go wrong for the home team and Illinois might just struggle to stay with Penn State in this Big Ten Conference game.

The defeat in October 2021 will not have been easily forgotten by the Penn State Nittany Lions and so there should be motivation to turn that around. Prior to that, the Nittany Lions have blown out the Fighting Illini three times in a row and Penn State look capable of winning this by a wide enough margin to cover the number set in Week 3.

Penn State have covered in all four situations where they have been set as the road favourite since the beginning of the 2022 season and they can do that here, despite the Illinois record at bouncing back from losses in recent games.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ USF Bulls Pick: Losing games in September has been an alien experience for everyone associated with the Alabama Crimson Tide (1-1) and it would have hurt all the more that they were downed in their own Stadium in Week 2.

A defeat to the Texas Longhorns already means the Crimson Tide have little room for error before their loaded SEC schedule even begins, while the players have a chance to bounce back immediately against another non-Conference opponent before SEC play begins next week.

The drop off from playing the Longhorns to taking on the South Florida Bulls is a big one and the Crimson Tide are being asked to cover a huge line. You cannot be that surprised by the line considering the Bulls had lost eleven in a row before their win in Week 2 against a school that does not play in the FBS.

South Florida have struggled to deal with teams at this Division level, including when playing American Athletic Conference opponents. Now they have to step up to face an angry SEC team that will be looking to make a statement and it really does feel like this is going to be a game that ends in a blowout.

The Bulls do have a new Head Coach in Alex Golesh who was the Offensive Co-Ordinator for the Tennessee Volunteers when they upset the Crimson Tide last year. However, this is going to be a transition kind of season for the Bulls and this time Golesh is not going to have SEC level talents to call upon to deal with the Crimson Tide.

Alabama are not the same team as last season and have had to replace players like Bryce Young and Will Anderson, who both were selected in the top three of the 2023 NFL Draft. The Quarter Back situation is one that is going to be difficult all season having lost someone like Young, but there have been some positive signs from Jalen Milroe, even if he threw two costly Interceptions in the eventual defeat to the Texas Longhorns in Week 2.

This is going to be a much more comfortable game to play in for the Quarter Back and the Alabama Crimson Tide should be able to impose their power on the Offensive side of the ball. The Offensive Line has not been at their best, but this is a big chance for Alabama to build some confidence and this is a team that crushed Middle Tennessee by 49 points in Week 1 of the season.

The Bulls have had some decent Offensive numbers to open the season, although they have been having problems Defensively. However, it is going to be very difficult for South Florida to have the same Offensive consistency against a team like Alabama and the Offensive Line has already been having a tough season when it comes to pass protection.

Will Anderson is not here to take advantage, but, once again, Alabama have an opportunity to get some confidence into those rushing the passer and they should be able to get to Byrum Brown on a regular basis throughout this game.

The South Florida Quarter Back will be facing the quickest and most gifted Defensive unit he is likely to see this season and Brown is unlikely to be in many third and manageable spots. Pressure to make plays from third and long could add up and the feeling is that the Crimson Tide are going to want to run up the score if they can to erase the painful loss to the Longhorns.

Alabama have not been a good team to back against the spread on the road over the last twelve months, but this spot looks like one in which they are going to be focused, angry and ready to light up the scoreboard.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Florida Gators Pick: The ending of the 2022 season might have been a lot different for the Tennessee Volunteers (2-0) if it wasn't for an injury suffered by Quarter Back Hendon Hooker in the loss to the South Carolina Gamecocks. That was the second defeat of the season and ultimately meant the Volunteers were not going to be picked to join the College Football PlayOff.

If they had won that game and Hooker had been healthy, the Volunteers would have had a serious case to be involved in the PlayOff with the other loss being against the Georgia Bulldogs. Frustration aside, the Volunteers ended up beating the Clemson Tigers in their Bowl Game and there is some excitement about what is to come in the 2023 season, even if some key players have departed.

Hendon Hooker is now in the NFL with the Detroit Lions, but the Volunteers have to be happy enough with what they have seen from Joe Milton III. They will believe there is still more to come from the Quarter Back, who has four Touchdown passes with no Interceptions in his two starts in 2023, but the Volunteers likely also need more as they face their first significant test of the season.

A true road game in SEC play is always going to be tough to deal with for those inexperienced and in recent years the Tennessee Volunteers have really struggled in The Swamp. In fact they have not had much success against the Florida Gators (1-1) in general, snapping a five game losing run at home last season.

This Florida team is still in transition and were well beaten in Week 1 by the Utah Utes, although bouncing back to crush an overmatched FCS opponent might have made the Gators feel a little better. Graham Mertz is plenty experienced when it comes to playing big Football games having been the Quarter Back for the Wisconsin Badgers before transferring to the Florida Gators, but there are still question marks about his overall ability to win the bigger games.

The Quarter Back is going to try and operate behind what has been a shaky Offensive Line and you have to believe the Volunteers will get plenty of pressure around Graham Mertz when he does drop back to throw. While there are talented playmakers around him, Mertz may have to play from third and long at times and need to hold onto the ball longer than he would be hoping, which brings the pass rush pressure to him.

Both teams will be looking to impose themselves on the Defensive Line and force the Quarter Back on each sideline to have to step up to the mark. However, it just feels like the Tennessee Offensive Line can open up a few more lanes for the rush to develop compared with the Gators Offensive Line and ultimately that is going to help the road team win this game.

Road wins in the SEC never come easily and the Volunteers have yet to really impress this season. They are unbeaten though and the Florida defeat to the Utah Utes is a concern, even if they have not been beaten in Gainesville by the Volunteers in twenty years.

Florida have also been very successful in the rare times they have been set as the home underdog, but Joe Milton III can out-perform Graham Mertz at the critical moments in this big Conference game and that can help the Volunteers win by around ten points in Week 3.

Florida Atlantic Owls @ Clemson Tigers Pick: Until the College Football PlayOff format is expanded, losses at this stage of the season can be very problematic. The Clemson Tigers (1-1) have already been downed within the Division and the pressure will be on the team to try and run the table with the knowledge that two losses are likely to be fatal to the chances of reaching the post-season.

They did bounce back from an awful loss to the Duke Blue Devils, and the Clemson Tigers look to be facing another overmatched team after blowing out a FCS school in Week 2.

This time they are back in Division I action, although the Tigers are considered big favourites when it comes to beating the Florida Atlantic Owls (1-1).

Florida Atlantic are trying to bounce back from a defeat, but they will know there is a big talent gap to bridge. They will try to run the ball, but the Owls Offensive Line will not be able to push around this Clemson Defensive Line, while the Tigers Secondary have played well in their opening two games, even if the team have faltered to a 1-1 start.

A bigger impact for the Tigers is expected to be on the Offensive side of the ball as they look to build some momentum to take into a huge game against the Florida State Seminoles in Week 4. Cade Klubnik is a Quarter Back with a lot of potential and there is excitement around him in Clemson, but he knows he will need to be a lot better than he was in the Week 1 loss to the Blue Devils when throwing a little over 200 yards and finishing with a 1-1 Touchdown to Interception ratio.

While he is likely going to be handing the ball off and looking for the Offensive Line to open some big running lanes, Cade Klubnik should have a big passing day against this Owls Secondary and that will be key for the Quarter Back. He threw 4 Touchdown passes against an overmatched opponent in Week 2 and Klubnik could match that total in this one with the Tigers expected to blow out Florida Atlantic.

The upcoming game against the Seminoles is a potential distraction, but the Owls were blown out by the UCF Knights early in the 2022 season and Clemson look capable of doing that as they continue to right the wrongs of Week 1.

Colorado State Rams @ Colorado Buffaloes Pick: You would think some of the other Head Coaches and Co-Ordinaters in College Football would have learned a lesson and not try to poke the hornet's nest.

Instead, the Colorado State Rams (0-1) Head Coach Jay Norvell had to take a swipe at 'Coach Prime' and he has once again made this feel 'personal' to the Colorado Buffaloes (2-0). Perhaps Norvell is trying to inspire his own players or perhaps he is trying to get the media to move past the blowout loss suffered in the Rams opening game, but either way, it has worked as bulletin board material for the Buffaloes, who are big favourites to win a third game in a row.

Deion Sanders has really sparked something early in his tenure as the Head Coach of the Colorado Buffaloes and wins over TCU and Nebraska are impressive. Divisional play will get underway next week at the Oregon Ducks, but the Buffaloes are focused game by game and they look 'primed' for a big win.

Shedeur Sanders is the Quarter Back of the Buffaloes and he will have been playing with a chip on the shoulder after all of the suggestions that he is only being selected as the son of the Head Coach. Instead, the younger Sanders has put up some monster numbers through the air and has 6 Touchdown passes without throwing an Interception in two games.

One game does not make a season, but the Rams Secondary is going to have to be a lot better than they were in the blowout loss to the Washington State Cougars. They might be able to get into the backfield and try and rattle Shedeur Sanders, but the feeling is that an 'angry' and 'disrespected' Buffaloes Offense is going to try and light up the scoreboard.

The Defensive side of the ball is still a work in progress for Colorado, but they should be able to deal with what the Rams are going to be putting on the field. The starting Quarter Back, Clay Millen, is expected to be ruled out and the pressure will be on Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi who is likely going to be plugged in after throwing 210 yards with 2 Touchdown passes and a single Interception in the opening game.

Colorado State will have some success Offensively, but keeping up in this rivalry game will be difficult and ultimately you have to believe Colorado Buffaloes will pull clear.

The Buffaloes have won five in a row in the series, while three of the last four wins have been by at least 21 points.

There will be excitement around the game with the Game Day College Football crew in town, but the feeling is that the Buffaloes are going to be looking to make another statement to a 'disrespectful' opponent. Colorado were 22 point winners over the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Week 2 and the feeling is that Coach Prime will be looking for a little more of a margin on the board against a weaker opponent in Game 3 before Pac-12 action gets underway.

MY PICKS: Penn State Nittany Lions - 14 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Mississippi State Bulldogs + 10 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Kansas State Wildcats - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 33.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Oklahoma Sooners - 28.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels - 7 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Tennessee Volunteers - 5.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bearcats - 14 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Oklahoma State Cowboys - 7 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Clemson Tigers - 24.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Colorado Buffaloes - 23.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

NFL Week 2 Picks 2023 (September 14-18)

The opening week of the NFL season is much anticipated by the fans of all thirty-two teams and it is a time to dream.

However, the approach into Week 2 feels a lot different.

Now fans will higher be floating on clouds after a win, or will feel the world is caving in after a loss and there is very little in-between.

Some teams have proven that an opening loss is nothing to worry about and you would expect the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals all to recover and get back on track very quickly. In saying that, two of those three teams have tough looking games to negotiate in Week 2 and even their fans might begin to worry if falling into a 0-2 hole.

Others like the Washington Commanders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams will do well not to get too carried away, but over-reactions are not only seen in the stands and from talking heads on television, but will also be reflected in the spreads released by Vegas.

One team that may be concerned even at 1-0 has to be the New York Jets.

I have long said that it is virtually impossible to pick a Super Bowl winner in September without having some luck behind your pick and those who have Jets tickets in their pockets will know all about that.

Four Offensive snaps is all it took for the excitement and confidence to be deflated as Aaron Rodgers suffered an achilles injury that will keep him out for the season.

Zach Wilson did lead the Jets to the upset over the Buffalo Bills, but this is not a Quarter Back you would trust on a week to week basis and some are already suggesting that New York need to see if they can make another trade and bring in someone on a rental, eg Kirk Cousins from Minnesota.

You have to feel for Aaron Rodgers, and you do hope this is not how his career will end.

He does not seem the kind of person who would want to end his career on anything other than his own terms so the expectation he will try and return, but at 39 years old, Aaron Rodgers has some road back to get onto a NFL field again.

It was a decent Week 1, but the Thursday Night Football game will get the Week 2 Picks underway and it is a very long season.

Underdogs had a very strong week, but there are some very big favourites in Week 2 and a number of teams looking to bounce back from underwhelming openings.

Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: You are not going to win the Super Bowl after Week 1 of the NFL has been played, but fans will be looking at performance levels and results and then make sweeping statements about what they have seen.

Neither one of these teams impressed in Week 1, but the reigning NFC Champions, the Philadelphia Eagles (1-0), won on the road, while the Minnesota Vikings (0-1) were upset at home by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

They meet in Week 2 on Thursday Night Football almost exactly twelve months to the day from when the Philadelphia Eagles comfortably got the better of the Vikings at home.

Once again it is a prime time spot for two teams that will have PlayOff aspirations at the very least this season and for two teams who are adjusting to what is demanded from them out of new Co-Ordinators.

It may have been a part of the reason the Eagles Offensive unit struggled through the second half of their win over the New England Patriots in Week 1. However, winning on the road against a Bill Belichick team that has had time to devise a game plan is never easy and so there are bigger expectations on the shoulders of Jalen Hurts and the Eagles on Thursday.

Brian Flores has to be largely pleased by what he saw from his Minnesota Defensive unit on the opening week, but facing Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a significant drop from the level that will be expected from Philadelphia. This time the Vikings Defensive Line will have to have a genuine concern in the ability of Jalen Hurts to make plays with his legs, while Minnesota have to generate a stronger pass rush if they are going to disrupt the home team in the passing game.

Stopping the Eagles moving the chains was problematic for Minnesota in the meeting last year and Philadelphia will certainly feel they have all of the tools to have success in this Thursday Night Football offering. The early numbers are encouraging for the Vikings after the Defensive performance last year, but one game against the Buccaneers in their current situation is not going to convince that a lot has changed.

The Eagles should be able to move the ball with more consistency at home than they did in New England and that is going to mean pressure on Kirk Cousins and the Vikings Offensive unit to bounce back from the opening loss. Kirk Cousins is effectively playing for a contract, whether here or somewhere else, but he had an Interception in the loss to Tampa Bay and the entire Offensive mistake made some key mistakes in being limited to 17 points.

Justin Jefferson will always get his catches and numbers, and the Vikings will likely target the hole left by James Bradberry who is expected to sit out in the concussion protocol in a short week. We have seen Kirk Cousins put up some decent numbers and he will feel he can do that here, although much is going to depend on the health of the Offensive Line.

Right now that does not sound as good as the Quarter Back would hope and the power of the Eagles Defensive Line is likely to make the difference in this game. The Eagles might be without Fletcher Cox, but they have talent on the Defensive Line and a banged up Vikings Offensive Line may struggle to give Kirk Cousins the time to try and attack this Eagles Secondary.

It does not help that the Vikings are not expected to have a lot of success running the ball, which means Kirk Cousins is operating behind an Offensive Line that will struggle to protect for enough time to make plays in third and long situations. As we have seen throughout his career, this could lead to Cousins turnovers and the Philadelphia Eagles look like they could pull clear for another solid win over Minnesota.

Home favourites did struggle in Week 1, but the Philadelphia Eagles look to have a serious edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball in this Thursday Night Football game. The feeling is that they can win the turnover battle and that should see them eventually pull clear and beat the Vikings by double digits in this one before heading into a mini-break with the next game slated for Monday Night Football in Week 3.

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: Two teams who have produced Week 1 wins meet one another in Georgia and the oddsmakers are finding it tough to separate the two teams.

The Atlanta Falcons (1-0) beat the Carolina Panthers at home behind a strong Defensive performance, while the Green Bay Packers (1-0) were set as a narrow underdog on the road in Chicago in Week 1, but the Jordan Love era began with a big win over the Bears.

While there are question marks around the Falcons and Packers, those opening wins will have given the fans plenty of encouragement. The situation is not ideal for Green Bay having to begin the season with back to back road games, but the team have to be feeling good about the start to a new era with Aaron Rodgers moved on.

Jordan Love threw 3 Touchdown passes and for 245 yards in the win over the Chicago Bears, but it might be tougher this week with Aaron Jones potentially missing out. The Running Back was a very strong safety blanket for Jordan Love and AJ Dillon may not have the same pass-catching ability to offer the Quarter Back that same blanket on Sunday.

You do have to like the way Dillon has played for the Green Bay Packers, but this is a season when Aaron Jones is going to be very important and so his absence will hurt. It will also put more pressure on the banged up Receiving corps to make plays for Jordan Love and this revamped Atlanta Defensive unit will feel they can give a relatively inexperienced Quarter Back something to think about.

The Packers did not run the ball efficiently in the win over the Chicago Bears, but AJ Dillon may have a bit more room to operate in this one. It was something the Panthers were able to do against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1, but the general feeling is that the Packers may not have the same room to operate Offensively as they did against the Bears.

Strong defensive play is going to be important for Atlanta all season and they will know that their own Offensive game plan will depend on being competitive in games. The Falcons do not want to put a lot of pressure on Desmond Ridder to have to make plays through the air, even if he does have some big targets in Kyle Pitts and Drake London operating in the Receiving corps.

Last week the Falcons struggled in pass protection and the Packers have a team that can generate a strong rush, while the Green Bay Secondary is capable of making big plays.

However, the Atlanta Offensive Line looks like it will be much more comfortable when it comes to grading the road and they did open up some decent lanes for Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. The Falcons were a top three rushing team last season and have opened this season with strong numbers on the ground, which should be seen in this Week 2 game as well.

Those two Running Backs look like they are going to form a special partnership and both could be important as safety blankets for Desmond Ridder too. Last week the Packers allowed the Chicago Bears to pick up 122 yards on the ground at 4.2 yards per carry, but Green Bay's Defensive Line could have more issues with the traditional running game the Falcons will use rather than focusing on slowing down Justin Fields.

It is the ability to grind out those yards on the ground that look to give the Falcons an edge in this game against a team playing a second consecutive road game.

There is a trend that shows the Falcons have not been able to back up home wins when playing back at home, but they did cover in that situation in Week 18 with Desmond Ridder at Quarter Back last season. They can do the same in Week 2 against the Green Bay Packers thanks to some big Defensive plays as Atlanta move to 2-0 for the season.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Buffalo Bills Pick: There are a number of teams playing back to back road games to begin this season and it should be noted that this is far from an ideal situation for any of those. The Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) secured a narrow win on the road against Divisional rivals the Denver Broncos in Week 1 and that will be a boost for Josh McDaniels and his team, but playing in the altitude of Mile High and having another road game to come is a tough scheduling spot.

Add in the fact they should be playing an angry Buffalo Bills (0-1) team that dropped a Divisional game on Monday Night Football and this really looks a tough challenge for the Raiders.

Josh Allen and company have to be frustrated about the loss at the New York Jets- in normal circumstances it might not have been a big surprise with the Jets having Aaron Rodgers playing for the first time at Quarter Back, but the future Hall of Fame player was out of the game after just four Offensive snaps and Zach Wilson helped lead the Jets to the victory.

The Bills have struggled to deal with the New York Jets over the last twelve months, but there will have been some concern with what was seen from Josh Allen. Poor decisions had overshadowed his 2022 season and there were more poor mistakes that ultimately cost Buffalo the opening game of the 2023 season and it will be something the Quarter Back will want to eradicate in the weeks and months ahead if he is going to take the Bills to a Super Bowl.

Buffalo's Offensive Line will have something to prove this week having been rattled far too often by the Jets pass rush, while Allen and company will want to show off a much stronger passing game. As well as the Raiders played last week, the feeling is that the Bills will be much more comfortable with this match up against a Secondary that does have some holes to exploit.

More will be expected from Dalton Kincaid to aid the passing options at Josh Allen's disposal, while the Bills should be able to establish the run through their Quarter Back and James Cook. The Jets have a Defensive unit that will likely be ranked inside the top five again, but the Las Vegas Raiders are not expected to be nearly as strong as what we saw last week and Buffalo should be able to pile up the points.

You also have to believe that Josh Allen will not throw 3 Interceptions again in Week 2 and that means it will be up to Jimmy Garoppolo to try and make sure the Raiders remain competitive. The former Patriot and 49ers Quarter Back is someone who has produced winning Football without always looking as strong as the record would suggest and that was seen again in Week 1 as he led the Raiders to a win in Denver despite finishing with just 200 passing yards.

Those passing numbers may take a dent if Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers are both missing for the Raiders in Week 2- both have missed practice and Meyers is almost certainly going to be absent as he moves through the concussion protocol. Jimmy Garoppolo may struggle to get much going through the air in this one if both of those Receivers are out and the Raiders will need to lean on Josh Jacobs to try and keep the ball out of the hands of the powerful Buffalo Offensive unit.

In something of a surprise, the Bills Defensive Line could not clamp down on the run last week once Aaron Rodgers was out of the game. They allowed the Jets to rack up some big yards on the ground, but Buffalo are much better against the run and there should be a reaction from them as they try and force Jimmy G to win this one through the air.

The Bills were surprisingly beaten at home by the Minnesota Vikings the week after losing at the New York Jets in 2022, but Josh Allen has usually bounced back to lead his team to not only a win, but a cover following a defeat. The Quarter Back would have heard some of the negative opinions about his performance on Monday Night Football, but this looks a very good spot for Buffalo to bounce back and especially with the Raiders on the second half of consecutive road games after a tough Divisional win at the Broncos in Week 1.

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions Pick: There has been so much hype around the Detroit Lions (1-0) and what they could potentially achieve this season. The departure of Aaron Rodgers from the NFC North meant the Lions were the trendy pick to win the Division, especially after the way they finished the 2022 season, but proving that on the field is all that matters.

Beating the defending World Champions on the road in Week 1 will only have intensified the expectations of this Detroit Lions team.

Despite the words of Mike Tirico on the broadcast at the end of the Lions in in Kansas City, most will have to accept it is a big win for a team that been improving in leaps and bounds under Head Coach Dan Campbell. This is one Coach that will demand a lot more from his team and the extra time between the Week 1 and Week 2 games should only have given Dan Campbell more of an opportunity to remind his players that they have achieved absolutely nothing by winning just one game.

Motivation should not be an issue for the Detroit Lions when hosting the Seattle Seahawks (0-1) as it was the Week 4 loss here to the Seahawks that ultimately was the difference between PlayOff Football and an extended break. That loss dropped the Lions to 1-3 on their way to a 1-6 start, but the team looks much more well-positioned in 2023.

They are hosting a Seattle team that looked really poor in the Week 1 home loss to the Los Angeles Rams as they put up just 180 total yards and saw Geno Smith struggle to just 112 yards through the air. The Seahawks did move the ball on the ground with some efficiency at 4.7 yards per carry, but they were chasing the game and had to move away from that side of their game.

Running the ball against the Detroit Lions will not be easy and especially not if the Offensive Line is as banged up as it sounds. Both Tackles on the Offensive Line could be missing and that is going to leave Geno Smith and the Seattle team vulnerable to this Lions pass rush that will be expecting a much bigger impact than they produced in the win over Kansas City.

They were not able to get to Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith can scramble around, but the Lions will feel their pass rush pressure will win out if they are having to deal with a makeshift Offensive Line.

It should also mean the Lions Secondary can back up what was a strong opening performance with the Seattle Quarter Back throwing out of pressurised spots. While you have to believe the Seahawks cannot be as poor as last week, this looks a very tough game on the road against a rested, motivated Detroit team and Geno Smith and company may not be able to have the consistency on this side of the ball to keep up with the Lions.

While Seattle and Smith could be playing with pressure all around him, the Detroit Lions and Jared Goff should be playing with a much cleaner pocket. The Quarter Back should be able to find his Receivers in spaces against this Seattle Secondary and Jared Goff is also expected to have more support from the run game, which was largely ineffective last week.

The Seahawks did play the run well against the Los Angeles Rams last week, but they struggled last season and are not expected to have improved significantly on that issue. Add in the power of this Detroit Offensive Line and the feeling is that David Montgomery will have a stronger outing for the Lions, which should only ease the game for Jared Goff.

He was given time against the Kansas City Chiefs and Jared Goff has really taken care of the ball in his time with the Detroit Lions with just 15 Interceptions thrown in his time with the team. As long as he can continue to do that, Goff should have a big game and put the Seahawks under the pump as he looks to take the Lions to a 2-0 record.

This will be the fourth time in a row that the Detroit Lions will be favoured to win a game at home and they are 3-0 against the spread in the previous three. At the same time, the Seattle Seahawks have struggled to remain competitive when set as the road underdog in recent games and with the motivation of losing last season on their side, the Detroit Lions can win and cover.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers Pick: It is going to take a bit of time for the Carolina Panthers (0-1) to turn things around with a new Head Coach and Quarter Back combination beginning with a Divisional loss to the Atlanta Falcons. That was on the road though and the Panthers are a part of a double-header on Monday Night Football as they face another rival from the NFC South.

This time they are hosting the New Orleans Saints (1-0) who also have a new look with Derek Carr at Quarter Back, but who managed to do just enough to beat the Tennessee Titans at home in Week 1. A losing record was enough for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the Division in 2022 and the retirement of Tom Brady means there is a void to be filled, one that the Saints will feel they should be favourites to do so.

Having Carr at Quarter Back and with the experience throughout this roster is certainly reason to have the Saints as the favourite in the Division, but they were beaten twice by the Carolina Panthers in 2022.

And with that in mind, it is quite surprising to see the Saints set as a pretty strong road favourite in this Week 2 game on Monday Night Football.

Derek Carr will need a bit of time to get on the same page as the Receivers, while the suspension being served by Alvin Kamara means a key player is out of the Offensive line up. That absence also affected the ability of the Saints to run the ball as they would like and Derek Carr has already made it clear that New Orleans need to do better in that regard to make things easier for the entire Offensive unit.

There is a talent drop from Kamara to Jamaal Williams, but the Panthers Defensive Line were not able to contain the Falcons threat on the ground last week. This should be good news for the Saints, and perhaps give Derek Carr a bit more time when he does drop back to throw.

Time was a problem in Week 1 as Carr absorbed a number of Sacks and he was also fortunate not to lose a Fumble- if the Saints have issues establishing the run, Carolina can certainly get to the veteran behind Center and that will disrupt the Offensive rhythm, much like the Tennessee Titans were able to do in their narrow road loss in New Orleans in Week 1.

New Orleans will still believe they are going to show more Offensively as Derek Carr becomes more comfortable in the system, and they may be able to lean on the Defensive unit while waiting for the Offense to get in sync with one another. For the ninth game in a row, the Saints have held teams to fewer than 21 points and that will always give the Saints a chance to win any game of Football.

Bryce Young had some early rookie struggles in Week 1 and so this is going to be another test for the Quarter Back, although being back at home should only aid him.

The ability to scramble out of the Quarter Back position did help the Panthers and they may feel they can get something going on the ground in this game too. Last week the Saints struggled to deal with the Titans rushing game, although it should be noted it is powered by Derrick Henry, and the Panthers might feel they can keep their young Quarter Back in positive down and distance.

He will have to be careful about the ability the Saints showed to turn the ball over by Intercepting Ryan Tannehill multiple times, but Young may be asked to make short passes and use his legs if the downs remain manageable. That will be important for Carolina as they look for the home upset, which they are capable of achieving if the Saints continue to have Offensive struggles.

Bryce Young did make some mistakes on the road, but that is not a major surprise out of a rookie Quarter Back. However, the expectation is that he will be a little more careful at home all around and the Panthers may be able to keep this one close.

You have to respect the fact that the Saints won road games at Cleveland and Philadelphia at the back end of the 2022 season, but taking the points with the home team looks to be the right approach to this early season Divisional game.

MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 6 Points @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Atlanta Falcons - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Detroit Lions - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

New York Giants - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Denver Broncos - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Miami Dolphins - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Carolina Panthers + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Steelers + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

US Open Day 14 Pick- Men's Final 2023 (September 10th)

A poor first week has proven to be costly for the Tennis Picks in the final Grand Slam of 2023, but it might have been saved if not for the last couple of days when a number of selections have been wrong.

Ultimately it could have been a lot worse after the start made to the tournament as we get ready to see the men's Final played on Sunday to conclude the event.

After this, the next set of Tennis Picks potentially will arrive at the big events being played in China with the Tour set to return for the first time since the Covid pandemic. The Shanghai Masters is back on the schedule, and we have an ATP 500 event in Beijing and then later in Tokyo.

The WTA Tour will also be heading back to Asia following the US Open and there are some big 500 and 1000 level events to be played in China and Japan. Coco Gauff was crowned as a new Grand Slam Singles Champion, but the Tour needs to begin backing those players a little better and it is no surprise that there are talks to merge the ATP and WTA Tours together.

It says a lot about the WTA that they have only just announced that their Finals will be played in Cancun.

That is for another day and the purpose of this thread is to offer thoughts on the US Open Final to be played on Sunday.

You can read that below as Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic meet for the second time in three years for the final Slam of the season.

Daniil Medvedev-Novak Djokovic over 38.5 games: The 'dream' Final hopes collapsed at the last moment when an impressive Daniil Medvedev beat Carlos Alcaraz in four sets in the last of the Semi Final matches played on Day 12 at the US Open. You can see that Medvedev, a former US Open Champion in his own right, had been seething quietly about suggestions that the top two players in the world were destined to meet in a second Grand Slam Final in a row.

Instead he threw a spanner into the works and Daniil Medvedev will want to prove he is not as far away from Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic as some would think.

Beating both players to win the US Open title would do that, but the World Number 3 will know that this is going to be another considerable challenge for him. Daniil Medvedev has beaten Novak Djokovic in the US Open Final in 2021, but that was a Djokovic that is not nearly as fresh as he is going to be feeling going into this Final.

Two years ago, Novak Djokovic had won three Grand Slam titles, but had looked exhausted at the end of the Tokyo Olympic Games as his bid for a Golden Slam faltered. While he did get to the Final in Flushing Meadows, Djokovic had been involved in a back and forth five set win in the Semi Final against Alexander Zverev and his emotions even got the better of him during the Final as he struggled to compete with the hitting of Medvedev.

This time Novak Djokovic is not playing for a bit of history in terms of a Calendar Grand Slam, but he is chasing a twenty-fourth Grand Slam title which would see him sit alongside Margaret Court on an all-time record number. However, he has looked much more comfortable with that pressure than he looked at times in the 2021 tournament and Novak Djokovic came through a sticky third set to beat Ben Shelton in straight sets in his own Semi Final.

While the numbers have not been dominant, Novak Djokovic has performed at a consistently good level throughout this tournament and it has felt he has been keeping something ready for the Final. He might even have expected that to be against his new rival, Alcaraz, but Djokovic will be glad of any extra energy he has in reserve against an opponent who will be happy to get involved in long, drawn out rallies.

Both of these players will know they need to serve well and that has been the case in recent meetings between them.

Daniil Medvedev won the most recent in the Dubai Final, but that snapped a run of four consecutive defeats to the impending World Number 1. All of those four defeats have followed the US Open Final win in 2021, but matches have been competitive and it has been one or two points that have swung sets and ultimately the outcome of those matches.

Novak Djokovic does lead the head to head at Grand Slam level, but Daniil Medvedev is arguably at his best at the US Open of the four Slams and he is a player that will have a lot of belief in his own tennis.

Two years the Final ended in straight sets, but the level of both of these players suggest we may need at least four sets to separate them in this one and that should see them getting very close to covering this total games line. While the last two matches played in 2023 have both ended in straight sets win, one each for Medvedev and Djokovic, the previous three had all needed the full three sets to separate the players and this is a match that could end up having four pretty long sets at the least.

MY PICK: Daniil Medvedev-Novak Djokovic Over 38.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Day 13 Tennis Pick- Women's Final 2023 (September 9th)

There are no longer hopes of the 'dream' Final in the men's tournament, but we do have two good looking Finals at the US Open to conclude the final Grand Slam event of the 2023 season.

First up is the women's Final between the new World Number 1 and the top American hope and there is every chance the full three sets will be needed when Aryna Sabalenka takes on Coco Gauff.

Aryna Sabalenka v Coco Gauff: It truly felt like it was going to be another Grand Slam Semi Final in which Aryna Sabalenka underperformed as she trailed Madison Keys 0-6, 3-5.

The frustration was clear with Sabalenka urging her coaches to give her a solution to 'another Semi Final' which had gone from bad to worse.

Despite all that, Aryna Sabalenka showed tremendous grit and character fitting of a new World Number 1 when fighting back and eventually beating the American 0-6, 7-6, 7-6 as she moves into her second Grand Slam Final of the year.

Some of the home fans will have been disappointed that they are not getting an all-American Final, but they will be very pleased to see Coco Gauff making her way through to the last women's Singles match of the tournament. All credit has to be given to a young player who has been under immense pressure since breaking onto the Tour and Coco Gauff has shown she can rally from difficult positions to win matches throughout her run to the US Open Final.

Out of the two players, Coco Gauff had the much more straight-forward win in the Semi Final and that could provide an edge when it comes to the gas tank in this Final. However, Aryna Sabalenka had been making serene progress through the draw before that Semi Final win over Madison Keys and having a Grand Slam winning experience compared to Gauff's Runner Up finish might be an advantage for the Belarusian Number 2 Seed.

You have to imagine that Aryna Sabalenka will have the edge on the serve, but Coco Gauff has enjoyed the returning conditions in the tournament.

It will certainly give the home player every chance of winning this Final, although Coco Gauff was well beaten when facing Aryna Sabalenka at Indian Wells. The two players have split four previous hard court matches, while Gauff has a clay court win over Sabalenka, but the Indian Wells win for Aryna Sabalenka was perhaps the most comfortable of their previous hard court matches.

Both have to be commended for the hard court form they have produced, but Aryna Sabalenka's win at the Australian Open can stand her in good stead. Coco Gauff has won eleven matches in a row in Cincinnati and New York City and may feel she is operating at her highest level right now, which is perhaps another reason the oddsmakers are finding it hard to separate the players.

However, the feeling is that Aryna Sabalenka will be a little freer now she has made it through what has been a very difficult Semi Final Round at the Grand Slam. It potentially will take all three sets to end up deciding the new US Open Champion, but the lean is with Aryna Sabalenka, who has a serve that can just produce a few more easy points than Coco Gauff's, which can be vital at the big moments in sets.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka to Win @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 38-36, - 9.34 Units (148 Units Staked, - 6.31% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2023 (September 8th)

After the disruption on Arthur Ashe, security should be more vigilant for the men's Semi Finals compared with the women's Semi Finals played on Day 11 of the tournament.

An almost hour delay after just eleven games had been played in the eventual Coco Gauff win, the organisers were finally able to remove the last of the protestors who had managed to glue himself to the stand.

The American handled the occasion far better than Karolina Muchova as Coco Gauff reaches another major Final and this time she will be facing Aryna Sabalenka, who showed tremendous heart and character to recover from 6-0, 5-3 down to beat Madison Keys in a final set Super Tie-Breaker.

Both players will be preparing for the Saturday showcase Final, but the attention will first turn to the men with the two Semi Final matches scheduled to be played at Day 12 of the tournament.

Most will be anticipating a Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz Final to round of the US Open, but Ben Shelton and Daniil Medvedev may have something to say about that.

Ben Shelton over 12.5 aces v Novak Djokovic: A nice clip resurfaced after the Quarter Final win over Frances Tiafoe in which Ben Shelton is speaking to Tiafoe and Christoper Eubanks and wanting to become such a force in tennis that no one would want to see him competing in the tournament.

It was an interesting ambition to target as a goal and Ben Shelton has the weapons that certainly suggest this young American star could be a future Grand Slam Champion in the making.

He reached the Australian Open Quarter Final earlier this year and Ben Shelton has surpassed that effort with this Semi Final run at the US Open. However, both have been as surprising as each other considering the lack of solid runs produced in other hard court events, while Shelton had been in poor form in the build up to his home Grand Slam.

Confidence has to be coursing through his veins right now though and that makes this huge serving lefty a potential problem for Novak Djokovic, who is targeting a first title here in five years. Of course Novak Djokovic was missing from the tournament last year, but he has been beaten in the Fourth Round in both 2019 and 2020 (retirement mid-match and disqualification) before going down to Daniil Medvedev in straight sets in the Final in 2021.

Three of the twenty-three Grand Slam titles won by the Serb have been won in New York City and he is likely going to have to deal with a hot crowd and an excitable opponent. The returning in the win over Taylor Fritz will have given Novak Djokovic a boost, but the fact that Ben Shelton's is a left-handed delivery may take a bit more getting used to, especially as the American tends to follow that serve up with some big groundstrokes.

Staying with Novak Djokovic long enough to win this match looks unlikely, especially with Djokovic's dominance of American rivals in Grand Slam events. At some point you would think the Number 2 Seed's returning prowess will shine through and put Ben Shelton under pressure, although, again, you have to have a lot of respect for the way Shelton has handled playing top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts.

He is 2-4 in those matches and has held 88% of his service games, including pushing Carlos Alcaraz in Toronto last month.

Much will depend on the serve and Ben Shelton may be able to put a number of aces in this match- some of those could even be in games where Novak Djokovic is not so focused in getting balls back in play, while the lefty serve opens up some great angles, while the Ben Shelton speed is recognised.

Novak Djokovic has returned well in the tournament, but his serving was not at its best in the Quarter Final win over Taylor Fritz as he offered up some routes back into the match in the third set. Eventually he prevailed in straight sets, but the feeling is that Ben Shelton will push him a little more and might be able to serve well enough to keep this competitive on the scoreboard.

It would be a huge upset if Ben Shelton was to reach the Final, but he may end up being proud of a huge effort to push the dominant Djokovic for long enough to set the American up for bigger things to come in 2024.

Covering this ace total will not be easy considering how well Novak Djokovic returns, but the feeling is that Ben Shelton will likely take risks on his second serve as well as his first delivery. Borna Gojo managed to ace Djokovic fourteen times in the Fourth Round and you have to believe that this Shelton serve can at least match that total, even more so when you consider it is coming from the southpaw stance that naturally can open the ace avenues up that much more.

With the pace that Ben Shelton is finding on the court, he can certainly hit at least thirteen aces even in a straight sets loss.

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: While most tennis fans will see Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz as the top two players on the Tour by some distance (and most likely US Open Finalists on Sunday), perhaps more respect needs to be given to Daniil Medvedev.

He is a former Grand Slam Champion and is clearly the World Number 3 right now having worked his way through to another Semi Final at the US Open. Before the tournament began, Medvedev did state that he felt the top two players have pulled clear, but he was also pretty honest in suggesting that he is someway past the current World Number 4 and we have seen evidence of that through the course of the 2023 season.

Unfortunately for Daniil Medvedev, he is facing the top Seed and defending US Open Champion in this Semi Final and it is very difficult to imagine the match being vastly different than when they met in the Wimbledon Semi Final. On that day Carlos Alcaraz was able to win in straight sets and without really being pushed, while those who think Medvedev is a different prospect on the hard courts compared with the grass have to also accept that the Spaniard was not exactly massively experienced in SW19 before winning the title in July.

This time the match is played on the hard courts on which Carlos Alcaraz has thrived with his consistent best Grand Slam results being at the US Open. It is from a very young career that the statement can be made, but Alcaraz will be just as happy as being back on the hard courts as Daniil Medvedev and he did have the stronger results in the Masters events prior to the US Open beginning.

You have to believe the match that Daniil Medvedev played in the heat of the day on Wednesday is going to be a factor too, even if he finished a few hours before Carlos Alcaraz took to the court. Winning in straight sets was absolutely vital to the World Number 3, but it was played in awfully tough conditions and there is not a lot of time to get himself ready for this Semi Final.

Daniil Medvedev returned well in the win over Andrey Rublev, but did not serve nearly as effectively as he would have hoped and will have to be improved in that regard. His return position is going to be interesting having lost both matches to Carlos Alcaraz this season with the Spaniard employing serve-volley tactics and getting to the net against someone who has become known for standing several feet behind the baseline on the return and in play.

Getting closer to the baseline may make the return a little less effective, but Daniil Medvedev will need to change his approach after losing all five sets played against Alcaraz this season. Two of those were lost on the hard courts of Indian Wells as Carlos Alcaraz picked up another big title, while Medvedev has won just fourteen games across those five sets.

The numbers from the two season meetings are not making good reading for Daniil Medvedev- he has only held 58% of service games played compared with Carlos Alcaraz and his 91% mark and that is a big difference that cannot be ignored.

We have yet to see the very best of the defending Champion in this tournament, but he should be fresh and Carlos Alcaraz has been steady throughout to say the least. On the other side, Daniil Medvedev has seen his numbers declining in each passing Round and the feeling is that there is still a big gap between the two players at their current levels, while any tactical changes might not be truly seen from the Russian until the 2024 season with more time to work on it.

Covering this number of games in a Semi Final is never easy, but Carlos Alcaraz might just have too much for Daniil Medvedev right now and he can find the breaks needed to pull clear and earn the right to defend his title on Sunday.

MY PICKS: Ben Shelton Over 12.5 Aces @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 38-34, - 5.34 Units (144 Units Staked, - 3.71% Yield)