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Friday, 17 September 2021

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 5 Picks 2021 (September 17-19)

The hype had been building over two weeks and Old Trafford was rocking heading to the pubs and bars around town before heading into the Stadium.

Most players might not have been able to deal with everything that surrounded the move back 'home', but Cristiano Ronaldo is not most players.

Two goals, a 4-1 Manchester United win and the team are top of the table after four games have been played in the Premier League.

Excitement was going to be hard to contain, but the club were brought back down to earth with the latest setback in the Champions League as Manchester United faltered in their 2-1 defeat at Young Boys. 7 losses in 11 Champions League games is a massive disappointment for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Manchester United and the pressure is on to make sure they are not dumped out of a weak looking Group.

For now the attention will turn back to the Premier League with the fixtures being played from Friday through to Sunday this weekend. I will have a few thoughts about GW5 of the FPL game below after putting down my thoughts for the fixtures to be played.


Newcastle United v Leeds United PickThe opening Premier League match of the weekend will be played on Friday night and both Newcastle United and Leeds United will be desperately searching for the first win of the season.

Both had to face 'Big Six' clubs last weekend and they were both beaten by three goal margins.

Newcastle United were in a difficult situation as they travelled to Old Trafford to face Cristiano Ronaldo in his 'homecoming' and the Portuguese superstar scored twice as Steve Bruce's men were brushed aside. A tetchy press conference after the match showed the growing tension between Steve Bruce and the fans and local media and it could be a toxic atmosphere to play in for the home team if the game is not going the way the fans will be expecting.

A long injury list is not helping the cause and Steve Bruce could be without key players in attacking areas. Callum Wilson's absence will be a huge hurdle to overcome, even though Newcastle United are facing a Leeds United team who have not found the balance Marcelo Bielsa would have been hoping for this season.

Defensively Leeds United have been struggling massively, but they are not creating the same kind of chances as they were last season. The struggle in the final third may be down to the fact that Leeds United have faced three of the current top four and they were better when facing Burnley, the weakest team they have faced so far this season.

It will be encouraging for a Leeds United team who are potentially missing two or three important defenders for this game. They will have seen the amount of chances that Newcastle United have been allowing opponents to create against them and Leeds United did the Premier League double over this club last season.

That will help with the mental side of things and I do think Leeds United are the better of the two teams and especially in their current state. The injuries in the home squad leaves them vulnerable and I do think Leeds United can take advantage with their attacking threat at Turf Moor most likely to be replicated than efforts at Manchester United or against Liverpool.

Things are never easy at St James' Park, but Leeds United will feel they have the edge even through the defensive problems they are dealing with. No Callum Wilson will help overcome those, while Marcelo Bielsa's team should be able to create enough chances to secure the full three points for the first time this season.


Wolves v Brentford PickThere will be plenty for these two clubs to look at from the early season fixtures and they will largely be happy with what the players have produced.

Bruno Lage's Wolves were finally rewarded for a very positive start to the season with a first win of the campaign. They have deserved so much more than they have gotten from the early fixtures, but Lage will be still be demanding his players work on their finishing which has been letting them down.

Last Saturday they finally took a couple of chances in the 0-2 win at Watford, while Wolves continue to play well defensively. They are not giving up a lot of chances and Wolves fans will head to Molineux expecting to see a first win of the season.

Brentford are a team that has to be respected, but Thomas Frank has to be a little concerned with the attacking side of their game. The side have scored a single goal in 3 Premier League games and Brentford are not exactly creating a lot of chances in their recent games either.

Defensively they can be stubborn and hard to break down and only an injury time goal prevented Brentford from making it 4 unbeaten in the Premier League. While there are questions about them in the final third, Brentford have produced encouraging displays defensively, although the fixture list looks much more difficult in the coming weeks than in the opening month.

It will be a challenge for Thomas Frank to pick his players up after the setback of last Saturday and Brentford are going to have to weather a storm that Wolves have brought against every opponent they have faced this season. Containing the home team will not be easy considering how effective they have been at creating chances and much is going to depend on how efficient Wolves are in front of goal.

Wolves are not easy to trust when you think of some of the glaring misses and they needed an own goal to get going at Vicarage Road. Brentford will not give anything away easily, but I think Wolves have the momentum of the win at Watford behind them and I do think they can back that victory up with another this weekend.

Goals may be hard to come by, but the feeling is that Wolves are going to create the better chances and it feels like the win last weekend will be important to them going forward.


Burnley v Arsenal PickThe defeat at Brentford was a pretty dreadful result for Arsenal, but the others to Chelsea and Manchester City may be more forgivable.

The manner of those losses would have hurt the fans, but Mikel Arteta will know his rebuilding process is still in transition and Arsenal are short of those top teams. Last weekend they looked much better as injuries have cleared up and they fully deserved the win over Norwich City.

1-0 could easily have been a much wider victory and Arsenal will head to Turf Moor with some confidence after the first three points of the season were secured. They are facing a Burnley team who capitulated at Everton on Monday Night Football having taken the lead and the defensive problems are surprising early in the season.

While I do think the manager will rectify those, Burnley may be vulnerable to an Arsenal team that can create chances and who have attacking players capable of finishing off their moves. Mikel Arteta will be demanding a little more composure in the final third, but he has to feel Arsenal can hurt a Burnley team that has conceded in every Premier League game this season and two or more goals in 3 of their 4 League games.

Add in the fact that Burnley have not won any of their last 12 at Turf Moor in the Premier League and have had one clean sheet in 14 home League games and Arsenal have to be full of belief.

However, Burnley have been pretty good going forward and they have a team that can be dangerous from set pieces. Better finishing may have seen them clear of Everton on Monday and also in both home games against Brighton and Leeds United this season, but in all of those fixtures Burnley have blown a lead.

Burnley are creating chances though, which will be encouraging for Sean Dyche and his team, and they have scored in 8 of their last 12 Premier League games at Turf Moor despite failing to win any of those. They will appreciate that Arsenal can be organised under Mikel Arteta, but also vulnerable from set pieces and that is where Burnley may find some joy.

The 1-1 scoreline can't be ruled out, but the early form of both of these teams suggest there will be at least one more goal produced with the attacking play Burnley and Arsenal have produced.

Only 1 of the last 10 between these clubs at Turf Moor have produced at least three goals shared out, but I am going against that trend this weekend. Both Burnley and Arsenal have shown they can be effective going forward with the chances created, while both have also conceded plenty of big opportunities.

An early goal could spark the game and there were plenty of opportunities for both clubs when they met in a 1-1 draw here last season. On another day, better composure would have led to at least one more goal when they last met and I think the two teams will combine for at least three goals in this one as they should both believe the three points are very much attainable against this opponent.


Liverpool v Crystal Palace PickThe strong end to last season earned Liverpool their spot in the Champions League and they have opened up with a 3-2 win over AC Milan.

The victory is a big one for Liverpool who have made a positive start to the Premier League campaign too. It looks like a potential title race that could involve up to four or five teams and that means Liverpool cannot afford to drop points at Anfield against an opponent they should be beating.

Crystal Palace would fit that bill, but Patrick Vieira has won his first game as manager of the club and would have enjoyed the 3-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur. The game changed on a sending off for the visitors, but Crystal Palace took full advantage and they played really well in a 2-2 draw at West Ham United before the September international break too.

Those results will have to be respected, but Crystal Palace have lost their last 4 visits to Anfield and can only really hope that Liverpool are a little fatigued from their Champions League exploits during the week. It can have an impact on teams, but Liverpool have been able to rest some key players in the win over Milan and they have looked good at both ends of the field for much of this season.

Liverpool have won 8 in a row against Crystal Palace and they have kept clean sheets in the last 3 against them. The Crystal Palace defeat at Chelsea on the opening weekend suggests they are still a team in transition under a new manager and I do think Liverpool will control the tempo of this fixture.

Jurgen Klopp's team have kept clean sheets in 3 of their 4 Premier League games played this season and I do think they will earn another one here. Crystal Palace likely will pose a threat on the break and from set pieces, but the main focus may be trying to contain their hosts and I feel it will lead to a Liverpool victory in which they also keep a clean sheet.


Manchester City v Southampton PickThe overwhelming feeling for many is that Manchester City would struggle without buying a new striker, but Pep Guardiola's team are making a mockery of those predictions.

They may have lost 1-0 at Tottenham Hotspur, but Manchester City have won all 4 games played since then and they have been particularly intimidating at their own Stadium.

Add in the 5-0 win over Everton on the final day of last season and Manchester City have scored 21 goals in 4 home wins in a row. The last 3 Premier League games at the Etihad Stadium have all ended 5-0 in favour of Manchester City and during the week they secured a 6-3 victory over Leipzig in the Champions League.

That has to be a concern for winless Southampton, although they have played well in their last couple of Premier League games. However, they are a team that have largely struggled defensively over the last couple of seasons and Manchester City scored five goals in a home win over Southampton back in March too.

Ralph Hasenhuttl wants his Southampton team to play with a certain swagger, but it has left them open at the back and they have conceded at least twice in 7 away Premier League games in succession. Everton saw Southampton off comfortably on the opening weekend, and 5 of their last 12 away Premier League games have ended in defeats by three or more goals.

Against this Manchester City team in the form they are producing it feels like a big task for Southampton to be competitive. They will likely pose problems for the home team if Aymeric Laporte and John Stones are both absent, but Manchester City should dominate the attacking numbers again and I think they can be backed to produce a big win on the day.

In 2 of the last 3 Premier League games at the Etihad Stadium between these teams, Manchester City have scored at least five goals and on current form you would not be feeling that comfortable backing against them doing the same this weekend.


Norwich City v Watford PickSome of the Norwich City performances have to be encouraging for Daniel Farke and the fans, but there is still this sense of naivety about the team at this level. That was especially the case in the 5-0 loss at Manchester City, but Norwich City have played much better in both home Premier League games without reward.

The 0-3 loss to Liverpool and 1-2 defeat to Leicester City are games where any points would have been seen as a bonus, but Norwich City played well enough in both. They could have secured something from each of those fixtures, but defensively there is a massive vulnerability about them.

The manager will point to the very difficult opening four games Norwich City have had to play, but there will be no excuses if they haven't found a way to pick up significant points before the next international break. First up is this massive home game against Watford and Norwich City will be looking for revenge over their relegation rivals as well as hoping to snap a 14 game losing run in the top flight.

Norwich City have been creating chances and will feel they can hurt a Watford team who have lost 3 in a row since upsetting Aston Villa at Vicarage Road on the opening weekend. They have lost both away games and that means Watford have been beaten in their last 8 away Premier League games, but they also struggled for consistency on their travels in the Championship last season.

Watford have struggled in the final third in recent away games and they have lost 4 of their last 5 on their travels going back to last season. They have failed to score in any of those 4 defeats and Watford have created little in their defeats at Brighton and Tottenham Hotspur over the last month.

However, Xisco Munoz will know both of those teams are likely to finish much higher up the League table than Norwich City when all is said and done next May.

The Hornets hold the mental edge having completed the League double over Norwich City in each of the last two seasons. Last season they earned 1-0 wins over Norwich City at home and away and I do think the first goal is going to be massive in this one.

Watford have won 6 of their last 9 visits to Carrow Road, but I do think Norwich City have shown enough this season to try and snap their poor record against this opponent. A defeat is likely going to knock all confidence out of the Norwich City team and this feels like a massive game for both clubs, but I do think the two home performances are encouraging for The Canaries.

You can't underestimate Watford simply because of how they have matched up against Norwich City in recent seasons, but they are a team who have struggled to find their best on their travels. The lack of goals has to be a concern, but Watford can be tough to break down when they are at their best and that is where they will try and frustrate Norwich City here.

However, Norwich City have been creating plenty of chances in their two home games against top teams and they can produce a first win of the season here. The first goal is going to be massive and Norwich City are likely going to come out with an intense attitude that may see them break down a Watford team who are still getting to grips at this level too.


Aston Villa v Everton PickLast season both Aston Villa and Everton will have some regrets that they were not able to find the consistency down the stretch that may have seen them playing in Europe this season.

It might not be a bad thing for the clubs overall as they look to develop to challenge the big clubs in the Premier League, but the fans are desperate to see that development this season.

Aston Villa have not been as consistent as they would have liked, but Dean Smith may feel it is partly down to the injuries that his squad have been dealing with. This weekend they look to have their key players all available for the first time at the same time, while Aston Villa produced a big performance at Stamford Bridge last Saturday.

Replicating that level on a regular basis is not going to be easy, but Dean Smith will believe his team are capable more often than not. Ollie Watkins and Danny Ings give Aston Villa a real goal threat, while the returning Emiliano Martinez and Emiliano Buendia will be a boost for the squad.

Aston Villa have key players back, but Everton are going to have to make do without Dominic Calvert-Lewin again this weekend. Last Monday they beat Burnley 3-1 without their leading striker, but Everton struggled at times to play without Dominic Calvert-Lewin and I do think Aston Villa have the defenders that will feel they can contain the threat.

Rafael Benitez does have Everton playing with confidence and this is a team that have been creating chances, while largely looking pretty secure defensively. They have won at Brighton and deserved to win at Leeds United so a trip to Villa Park will not be intimidating, but both of those came with Calvert-Lewin leading the line and his absence will hurt their efforts.

They are also facing an Aston Villa team who have been strong at home, while getting the better of Everton last season. I think Rafael Benitez will improve Everton this time around, but Aston Villa have the threats in the final third to get the better of them in this live game and I think the home team are worthy of backing on the Asian Handicap which returns the stake in the event of a draw.


Brighton v Leicester City PickPlaying in the Europa League on Thursday and having Premier League commitments on the weekend is a big challenge for the clubs who have to do that.

Leicester City should have plenty of experience having negotiated the Group Stage of the Europa League last season, but the early season form is perhaps more of a concern. They are still picking up points, but Leicester City have just struggled for the balance at both ends of the field and now they have to face a rested and confident Brighton team.

Graham Potter has never lost faith in his system and his style of play and Brighton are being rewarded early in this season. They were underachievers last season when you compare the results to the overall performances, but over the last month Brighton have been rewarded for their efforts.

The late goal at Brentford has already seen Brighton earn close to a quarter of the points they would have been targeting before the season began. Defensively there has been plenty to be excited about and they will feel that will give them the foundation to be successful, while Brighton have shown enough in the final third to believe they can hurt this Leicester City team.

Playing The Foxes days after the Europa League began is a bonus, but Leicester City have a good record here and I am anticipating a battle between two good football teams. Both managers will want to see their team get on the front foot, but it may be a day when one of the sides are unable to break down the other.

Brighton have not been as strong going forward as they were for much of last season, but defensively they have looked good. On the other side, Leicester City have struggled for consistent attacking threat and last season 2 of the 3 games between these teams ended with one failing to find the back of the net.

The last fixture here ended 1-2 to Leicester City, but the previous 4 between these clubs had seen one of the teams fail to score.

Since Brighton returned to the top flight, half of their 4 home games against Leicester City have ended with at least one of the teams failing to score. Considering the challenges both have had in the final third so far this season, I do think we could see at least one clean sheet produced on the day.


West Ham United v Manchester United PickBoth of these teams had contrasting fortunes away from home in European competition this week, but West Ham United and Manchester United have both made unbeaten starts to the Premier League campaign.

It is Manchester United who lead the way with 10 points on the board, but West Ham United have picked up 8 points of their own and they will be plenty confident of upsetting their visitors.

The Hammers won 0-2 at Dinamo Zagreb on Thursday and this is a team who have been creating chances and scoring plenty of goals all season. They were held to a goalless draw at Southampton last Saturday though and West Ham United will be without talisman Michail Antonio this week which should give Manchester United the edge.

Backing Manchester United at odds on is not that appealing though even if they have won 5 of their last 7 away Premier League games. The 2-1 defeat at Young Boys in the Champions League will have dented some of the confidence, but the likes of Raphael Varane and Mason Greenwood did not start that game.

Aaron Wan-Bissaka made a big mistake in the first half and the relatively early sending off was costly for Manchester United who had been leading 0-1 at that point. Poor decisions by the manager didn't help, but I can't ignore the fact that Manchester United would have likely avoided a defeat if not for that sending off.

They were fortunate to win at Wolves at the end of August with the home team creating the best chances on the day, but West Ham United might not pose the same threat without Michail Antonio. That might contribute to a low-scoring game when you think that Manchester United have scored more than one goal in only 5 of their last 14 away Premier League games and yet they are now unbeaten in 28 on their travels in the top flight.

4 of the last 5 between West Ham United and Manchester United have ended with fewer than three goals shared out, while 3 of the 5 fixtures these teams have competed in at the London Stadium have done the same.

The inexperience of the West Ham United squad having played in the Europa League on Thursday in Croatia and now having an early kick off on Sunday might also go against David Moyes' men. They are likely going to look to make life difficult for Manchester United, but the feeling is that the visitors will secure a narrow away win as they erase the memory of the poor defeat in the Champions League.


Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea PickBoth teams will be happy with the points on the board after the first four Premier League games of the season, but there is no doubt that Chelsea have been much more convincing than Tottenham Hotspur.

The latter had a tough Europa League game at Rennes on Thursday too and I do think Tottenham Hotspur and Nuno Espirito Santo have learned how tough this season could be over the last week. The 3-0 hammering at Crystal Palace would have really hurt and Tottenham Hotspur are struggling for the balance between attack and defence.

That is not the case for Chelsea who have looked strong at the back and comfortable playing against the other top teams in England. They have drawn at Liverpool and Chelsea have already made the relatively short trip to North East London to win this season.

Chelsea will potentially be facing a short-handed Tottenham Hotspur in this one too which gives them a further edge in this Premier League fixture, while winning back to back visits to Spurs will only encourage the squad further.

Spurs have beaten Manchester City here in the Premier League, but they were fortunate that day and I think they will need considerable luck to win this one. Nuno Espirito Santo will look to make his team hard to beat, but Chelsea have the quality to break them down and won here under Thomas Tuchel last season.

With Romelu Lukaku in the form he is in, I think Chelsea can do enough to win this final game of the Premier League weekend behind their own solid foundation at the back.

MY PICKS: Leeds United - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Wolves
Burnley-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals
Liverpool Win to Nil
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap
Norwich City - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Aston Villa 0 Asian Handicap
Brighton-Leicester City Both Teams to Score- NO
West Ham United-Manchester United Under 2.5 Goals
Chelsea


Fantasy Football GameWeek 5
I decided to use my Wild Card in GW4 with some of the early decisions and real life transfers looking like they were leaving my team a little short.

Let's also face facts- there was almost no way I would be putting together a Fantasy team without Cristiano Ronaldo leading the line and that meant having to make a few changes.

Like many others, Chelsea players are going to be high on the radar with a turn in their fixture list in the coming weeks, but I felt I would have enough to use my transfers through to GameWeek 7 which would be enough to bring in the players I want.

Romelu Lukaku has to be the main target and I have a couple of different paths towards bringing him into my squad, although my Wild Card in GW4 was used knowing I would get through GW5 without using another transfer.

The suspension of Michail Antonio has hurt, but not too badly and I am comfortable with the eleven I will be starting in this game and knowing my back up players are capable of coming up and filling up any gaps.


I know some out there will want to move Antonio on, even though he has some good looking games to come and is only out for this GameWeek- I've had him from GW1 so it makes no sense for me to remove him and bring him back, but if I was looking for a replacement, these are the players I would potentially target.

Richarlison- leading the line for Everton in the absence of Dominic Calvert-Lewin and will also likely be on Penalties. The team have some decent games to come, especially Norwich City at home next week.

Raul Jimenez- Wolves are creating chances for fun and I do think it is a matter of time before the Mexican striker gets on a run.

Patrick Bamford- I am not as high on Bamford as some, mainly because Leeds United have not been completely at the races so far this season. Also has been talk about a potential knock so his minutes may be limited, although the fixtures are a positive and if he is going to get scoring, it may begin this week.

Personally I think keeping Michail Antonio makes the most sense and having another week of data to get behind, but I also would not be surprised if those three strikers all have an impact in GameWeek 5.


With the players I have in the squad, I feel playing five at the back may be the best approach, while I have decided to have Said Benrahma as my first sub and Moussa Sissoko as my second. My feeling is that my starting eleven will all play so the bench may not be a big factor, and my risks this week have to be the Norwich City starters with their fixture list looking much better than their first four games.

This is a key time for Norwich City in real life rather than Fantasy and the players have to start producing points if they are going to have a realistic go at avoiding the drop.

Hopefully Brandon Williams and Teemu Puuki can produce the points for my team.

I am quite content with the rest of my eleven and I will then have another week to think about any transfers I would like to make with the focus beginning to turn to GW7 and what I may like to do.

The Captain choice came down to Mohamed Salah at home against Crystal Palace or leaving it with Cristiano Ronaldo who will be leading the line for Manchester United at the London Stadium. I do think CR7 can make a difference for United at West Ham United, but Mo Salah looks the more appealing choice this week with a home game and with an 'easier' fixture on paper.

Crystal Palace have conceded five times in their two away Premier League games, while West Ham United have conceded three times in their two home games. Add in Crystal Palace's struggles against Liverpool in recent seasons and with a more expressive system being used and I do think they may struggle at Anfield.

There is always a concern about rotation, but Mo Salah did not have the full 90 minutes against AC Milan on Wednesday and I would be surprised if he is rested considering he will be having a week off between fixtures after this one. Cristiano Ronaldo is more than capable of matching his output this week, but Salah is a midfielder in the game and that extra point for a goal is worth the Captain armband with the fixtures to come.

These two players do look the stand out options in GW5- I will post my team on Twitter on Friday afternoon just after the deadline is locked in around 6:30pm.

Thursday, 16 September 2021

NFL Week 2 Picks 2021 (September 16-20)

The first week of the NFL season is in the books and Week 2 is very much upon us with Thursday Night Football getting things going with a big NFC East game to be played.

You can't read too much into Week 1, but there were still some eye-opening results and performances that you may want to keep tabs on.

The main story might have been the blow out suffered by the Green Bay Packers, although I am not going to join the conspiracy theorists who believe Aaron Rodgers has turned up to tank their season. Ultimately it would make little sense for Rodgers to waste a season of his career in this manner, while giving Green Bay a high Pick in the next Draft is not exactly hurting the franchise more than his own reputation.

I don't think Rodgers is someone who cares what people think about him, but he does have respect for the Green Bay fans and I am putting the dud down to the fact that he has always struggled in Florida in his career. The New Orleans Saints picked Jacksonville for a reason and they made that pay for them, but I expect Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers to bounce back and produce something big on Monday Night Football.

Of course if the Packers were to lose on Monday, I would begin to question my own feelings about the intentions of Aaron Rodgers and his team may be one that self-implodes really quickly.


Other teams also laid a dud in Week 1 and I would expect better from them- the Indianapolis Colts need injuries to clear up, but they are better than what they showed, and I also think the Tennessee Titans will never be as bad as they were in Week 1 again this season.

Teams like the New Orleans Saints and Houston Texans looked really good in Week 1, but you don't want to get carried away about their chances with seventeen more weeks of the season to go.


Both the AFC and NFC West Divisions earned clean sweeps of Week 1, but only the NFC North returned four losers. Those Divisions will believe they have the quality to find multiple teams entering the PlayOffs at the end of the regular season, but there is every chance these teams can feast on one another with little to separate them.

The Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers will certainly expect to make the post-season, but the likes of the Los Angeles Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, and Las Vegas Raiders will look to back up big wins in Week 1 and begin to build momentum into the season.


It was not a great start for the NFL Picks, but it could have been a lot worse if not getting the early number on the 49ers who blew a massive lead against the Detroit Lions. Vegas backers waiting until the 1pm kick offs begun will have been stung by the comeback with the margin ending at 8 points and it is considered the baddest of bad beats in Week 1 if the 49ers let you down.

To be honest I made some poor Picks in Week 1 and there is work to do to turn things around in Week 2.

I will begin with the Thursday Night Football Pick and will add selections from the rest of Week 2 to this thread in the days ahead.


New York Giants @ Washington Football Team Pick: Only one of the four teams in the NFC East won on the opening week of the NFL season and two of the 0-1 teams will be meeting on Thursday Night Football. Even the expanded PlayOffs in the NFL will be difficult to reach if you fall into a 0-2 hole and that puts the pressure on the New York Giants and the Washington Football Team.

Both teams would have entered the season with some serious expectations and the Coaching Staff at the New York Giants are especially under pressure to end what has been the lowest period of time in the history of this franchise. The Giants did 'improve' to 6-10 in 2020, but the team has been a slow rebuild and another losing season will surely mean the franchise is moving in a different direction in the General Manager office as well as in the Coaching area.

The Washington Football team also finished with a losing record in 2020, but Ron Rivera is considered a top Head Coach and he will be given ample time considering that record was good enough to win the Division last season. There is a lot to like about this Washington team, but an injury to Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1 means they are going to have to turn to back up Quarter Back Taylor Heinicke for the foreseeable future.

There will be some encouragement about the new Quarter Back and mainly because of the way he performed in the PlayOff loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round last season. However, it also should be noted that the Quarter Back position is one that has to be more consistent if the Football Team are going to become the first NFC East team in sixteen seasons to retain the Divisional crown.

Taylor Heinicke is expected to be given plenty of support from the skill positions on the Offensive side of the ball, while the Offensive Line showed what they can do when it comes to running the ball. The Football Team had a lot of success on the ground in the defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers and I expect Antonio Gibson to have a bounce back performance after arguably costing the team a victory with a fumble near his own goal-line in the second half of the defeat to the Chargers.

The New York Giants Defensive Line struggled against the run in Week 1 and that has to be encouragement for the Washington Football Team who will not want to put a lot of pressure on their back up taking over from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Last season the Giants showed they could be stout against the run and they may double down on the focus of shutting down Antonio Gibson and the expectation is that the Giants Secondary should be stronger despite the poor performance against the Denver Broncos.

Teddy Bridgewater is a solid Quarter Back, but Taylor Heinicke may not be quite as good if the Giants can clamp down on the run and force him to beat them through the air. Instead the Washington Football Team have to look to the Defensive unit to contain the Giants and at least give their Quarter Back a chance to win this game by limiting the points being given to their Divisional rivals.

New York are looking for a huge improvement from Daniel Jones at Quarter Back, but they struggled in Week 1 against a strong Denver Defensive unit and now have to face another in the Washington Football Team. Daniel Jones didn't give up a turnover through the air, but he did Fumble the ball which proved to be costly for New York as they were eventually blown away by the Broncos at home.

Fumbles have been a huge problem for Daniel Jones since being Drafted by the New York Giants and he may have to rely on a banged up Saquon Barkley who has admitted this short week is not ideal for him as he recovers from a major injury. It is going to be difficult for any Running Back to get something going against this Football Team Defensive Line though and I think Barkley is going to have a tough evening which is only going to increase the pressure on his Quarter Back.

The Washington Defensive Line is the strength of this unit and they were able to contain Los Angeles last week to 3.1 yards per carry and I do think they will be able to get the better of the New York Offensive Line too. That is all important for the Football Team with a strong pass rush likely to cause havoc for Daniel Jones behind Center and give Washington an opportunity to win the game.

However, Daniel Jones will have an opportunity for success if he is given a little bit of time to make his throws- the Washington Secondary struggled to stop Justin Herbert last week and, although Herbert is better than Jones, the New York Giants have some very good skill players that can step up for their Quarter Back.

Kenny Golladay was the big signing made to offer Daniel Jones another big time pass catching threat and I do think he can make some plays to move this Offensive unit down the field.

It does feel like it is going to be a low-scoring game with both Defensive units likely able to step up and make some big plays for both New York and Washington.

Both teams are coming off losses and will want to bounce back on the short week, but you can't ignore the fact that New York have won the last five against Washington and the Giants are 4-0 with Daniel Jones as their starter. New York are 3-1 against the spread in those four games, while they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games in Washington.

The Giants are also 9-2 against the spread as the road underdog with Daniel Jones Quarter Backing the team and having the hook with the points looks hard to ignore.

I like Ron Rivera as a Head Coach and he has a very good record when facing a team with revenge on his mind, but the Giants managed to get the better of him twice last season. It feels like they match up pretty well with the Football Team and I think New York can be backed to make it two out of two for the underdog on Thursday Night Football in the 2021 season.

Washington are 1-5 against the spread in their last six as the home favourite, while New York are 9-1 against the spread when facing a Divisional opponent after scoring less than 14 points as they did against the Denver Broncos. The Giants were 5-1 against the spread in their six Divisional games in 2020 under Joe Judge and I think having more than a Field Goal start is very appealing in what is projected to be a low-scoring game.


Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The AFC East was supposed to be dominated by the Buffalo Bills (0-1) with the rest of the three teams fighting it out for a potential Wild Card spot in the PlayOffs. You don't want to walk too far from the path of expectation by taking Week 1 results into account, but the Bills will be looking to show how good they can be when they try and bounce back from a tough afternoon against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

They are facing the only team in the Division who walked away with a win in Week 1 after the Miami Dolphins (1-0) barely held on to win on the road against the New England Patriots. There were some positives out of that win, but Miami also still need to show some huge improvements and the main focus for that has to be on the Quarter Back.

Tua Tagovailoa had some positive moments which underlined why Head Coach Brian Flores and the organisation have remained behind him despite being linked with a move for a Quarter Back via trades. For now they will give Tua Tagovailoa as much time as he needs, but this season there is no Ryan Fitzpatrick to bail Miami out if they begin to lose faith in their young signal-caller and that is going to mean pressure on Tagovailoa's shoulders.

He dealt with it pretty well in Week 1, but it was an ugly Interception thrown in the Fourth Quarter which may have cost Miami the victory. The Defensive unit stepped up, but Tua Tagovailoa can ill-afford to continue to make those mistakes in his second season with the team and especially not if Miami wish to earn their place in the post-season having only just missed out in 2020.

It will be a revenge mission in Week 2 as it was the blow out loss to the Buffalo Bills which cost Miami in Week 17 last season, but the Dolphins have lost five in a row to this Divisional rival.

Last week they were outgained by over 130 yards by the New England Patriots and that is unsustainable over a long period so Miami will be looking to utilise their solid Receiving corps in Week 2. Will Fuller will be absent again as he continues to deal with personal issues, but Tua Tagovailoa has plenty of players who can step up and try and make plays for the team.

That is going to be far from easy against this Buffalo Defensive unit which mostly contained Pittsburgh in Week 1 despite the loss on the day. It was Special Teams and a costly Offensive turnover which ultimately did for Buffalo who only gave up 177 passing yards in the loss and will feel they can create the pressure up front to force Tagovailoa into bad throws.

The Bills Defensive Line was very strong at clamping down on the run in Week 1 and they were solid up front last season too. Buffalo should not be overly concerned by the Running Backs used by the Miami Dolphins, while the Offensive Line is still coming together and struggled to make holes in the opening win over the Patriots.

With pressure coming up front as they force Miami into third and long spots, I think the Bills Defensive unit will be able to produce another top performance and this time they are likely to be well backed by the Offense which struggled for consistency in Week 1.

You cannot ignore the almost 400 yards Buffalo produced against what looks to be another strong Pittsburgh Defense, but Josh Allen and company were not able to finish drives in the manner they would have liked. Despite those yardage numbers, Buffalo only managed 16 points in Week 1 and that means and Offense that averaged over 31 points per game last season has not managed to reach 30 points in any of their last four games.

Josh Allen will have been disappointed with his own performance, but I expect the Quarter Back and the Bills to bounce back against the Miami Dolphins. Brian Flores has built a strong Defense in South Florida, but it is a team that will take chances and they are not as stout against the run as the Steelers.

Buffalo were able to produce some decent numbers on the ground last week and I think they will have more success in this game which will give the Offensive unit a massive boost. The biggest factor with running the ball effectively is that Josh Allen should get more time to throw the ball, while the Offensive Line will likely be able to protect him much better against this Miami Dolphins pass rush compared with the defeat to the Steelers in Week 1.

The Dolphins allowed Mac Jones to have a productive debut for the Patriots and there is no doubt that Josh Allen is considerably further in his development. I expect Miami to try and use their ball-hawking to swing the momentum towards them, but an angry Buffalo team is coming to town and I think Josh Allen and his Offensive skill players have a big day.

I like Buffalo to bounce back, as much as it pains me to say it, and their recent record against Miami is hard to ignore. Even playing in South Florida has not been a big problem for a traditionally cold weather team and Buffalo have won on three of their last four visits and have gone 2-1-1 against the spread in that time.

Miami have played really well as the underdog in recent times under Brian Flores and that has to be respected as does any home team being given the points. They are getting the hook which is a slight concern, but in recent years Miami are also 1-8 against the spread when playing off a straight up win against a team that failed to cover in Week 1 during the opening quarter of the season.

During this same early part of the season, Buffalo have gone 9-1 against the spread against unbeaten opponents, while Sean McDermott is a very strong Head Coach who has guided the Bills to a 9-1 record against the spread when facing an opponent that won the previous game as the underdog.

The Bills are 5-2-1 against the spread as the road favourite across the last two seasons and I think they can beat Miami again to keep the Indian sign over their heads.


Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: You have to feel a little square backing a road favourite coming from the West Coast and playing in the 1pm slot in Week 2.

However, teams in that spot have been massively improved over the last couple of seasons and the Los Angeles Rams (1-0) looked every bit the Super Bowl contender in their comfortable win over the Chicago Bears in Week 1. They are looking much healthier than their opponent and the biggest factor going against the Rams may be the fact they are playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers next up.

It would be easy to overlook the Indianapolis Colts (0-1) after they laid a dud in their home loss to the Seattle Seahawks, but this is a team that has much higher expectations than they showed in that performance. However, the Colts are suffering some significant injuries on either side of the ball which may make it very difficult to compete with the Rams if the visitors are even slightly focused on this game.

There is a big Divisional game on deck which could easily see the Colts looking ahead to Week 3, although a defeat in the opening game should mean they are relatively more focused and desperate to avoid falling into the 0-2 start.

Carson Wentz and the Offense only produced 16 points in Week 1 though and they are going to have a tough time scoring a lot more than that if the Offensive Line is banged up this week. Eric Fisher is Questionable, which would mean Wentz is not as protected on his blind side as he would, while any issues on any Offensive Line are going to lead to problems facing this Los Angeles pass rush.

The Rams Defensive Line did have a few problems stopping the run last week, but the Colts struggled to get going on the ground and had to move away from that avenue when they fell behind Seattle. Despite that, Los Angeles got after Andy Dalton and they successfully penetrated the backfield consistently, which is going to be a problem for the Indianapolis Colts Offensive Line that struggled to protect their Quarter Back against a Defensive Line that is not as strong as the one they will be seeing this week.

Los Angeles have a tough Secondary which is benefited by the pressure the Defensive Line get up front and I do think that will make it difficult for the Colts to move the ball with any consistency.

And if they are not moving the ball, Los Angeles will have Matthew Stafford looking to back up his impressive performance in Week 1 as the move from Detroit to Los Angeles went every bit as good as the Rams would have hoped for.

Sean McVay will know there is room for improvement as the Rams look to find the balance Offensively which will only make life easier for the best Quarter Back the Head Coach has had in his time with this team. Last week Los Angeles only produced 3.2 yards per carry, but the Colts may be looking to sell out to protect their Secondary and their Defensive Line did struggle against the Seahawks.

Any time the Rams get into third and manageable spots, you would have to like Matthew Stafford's chances of moving the chains with his experience and the talent Los Angeles have around him. The new Quarter Back had some huge plays last week, but he was aided by some massive break downs in the Chicago Secondary and I think Matthew Stafford will be encouraged by what he would have seen on tape from Russell Wilson and the Seahawks exposing the Indianapolis Secondary.

The Offensive Line were protective, but Stafford is also someone who will be capable of making quick reads and getting the ball out of his hand quickly. This should see the Rams moving the ball with success and I do think they are capable of producing another strong Offensive outing.

The favourite is 4-1 against the spread in the last five games in the series between these NFC opponents.

Los Angeles are 15-10 against the spread as the road favourite since Sean McVay took over and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five overall as the favourite.

I do have respect for Frank Reich who is a brilliant Head Coach, but his Colts team are 0-3 against the spread as the home underdog over the last three seasons. He has made sure his team are able to bounce back from losses very well, but the Los Angeles Rams look much stronger than the Indianapolis Colts with injuries not helping the latter.

As long as Sean McVay can make sure his team ignore the big game with Tampa Bay coming up, I do think they can cover as the road favourite.


New England Patriots @ New York Jets Pick: Fumbles are a part of American Football, but four in a game is unforgivable. The worst of those came from Damien Harris in the Fourth Quarter and ultimately landed the New England Patriots (0-1) with a Week 1 loss to Divisional rivals Miami when it looked like they were moving into a position to win that game.

The Running Back has accepted responsibility for the mistake which proved to be a decisive one, but the Patriots have to move forward and they have 16 games left on the schedule to make amends. However, most New England fans will be worried about the course of the 2021 season if they are to lose to AFC East rivals, the New York Jets (0-1), who are also coming in off a defeat.

A new era has begun in this part of New York with Robert Saleh taking over as Head Coach and the decision to select Zach Wilson as the Quarter Back in the last NFL Draft. That meant Sam Darnold was traded away and it was their former Quarter Back who led the Carolina Panthers to a narrow win over the Jets in Week 1.

No one should be expecting miracles from this New York Jets team in 2021 and I do think they are one of the weaker teams in the NFL. Zach Wilson did not play badly in Week 1, but that was against another team that may be expected to win less than 50% of their games to come this season and there are going to be plenty of big challenges ahead.

Zach Wilson was given little support by his Offensive Line- they did very little in getting a rushing attack over, and New York gave up six Sacks last week. The Quarter Back produced some positive numbers despite that, but the Jets are going to have issues moving the ball again this week and especially going up against Bill Belichick and the strong Defensive mind he brings to the table.

They largely played well against Miami last week and this New York Offense is not as strong as the one that the Dolphins can take to the field. The Patriots should be able to bamboozle Zach Wilson just enough to force one or two mistakes, and I am not sure the Jets will give their rookie Quarter Back enough support to produce a lot more than they did in the loss at Carolina.

A rookie Quarter Back will also be playing on the other side and Mac Jones will be confident with the start he made as he debuted for the Patriots in Week 1 and forced Cam Newton to look for a new team. The team in general did not do enough Offensively, but Mac Jones might have had a win behind him if not for the Harris fumble in the Fourth Quarter last week and I do think the Patriots will largely be happy with what they have seen.

Mac Jones should have plenty of time behind this Offensive Line and especially against a New York Jets team that may struggle to generate a consistent pass rush this season. His Running Backs should be able to at least get the Patriots in front of the chains, but it will come down to Mac Jones against this Secondary and there are enough skill players on the Offensive unit to believe the Quarter Back can back up the performance he had against Miami.

The Jets Secondary gave up some big plays to the Carolina Panthers and I do think the Patriots are better than that team in most aspects.

Playing as a road favourite of this size is still a big ask for a rookie Quarter Back despite the edge New England have over the Jets. That reduces some of the enthusiasm for this pick, but the Patriots are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven between these Divisional rivals and they should be desperate to make amends for the opening weekend loss to an opponent from the AFC East.

The Patriots have covered in two of their last three visits to the New York Jets, while the Jets are now 5-14 against the spread in their last nineteen against Divisional opponents.

Last season New England did not perform as expected coming in off a loss, but in general they have been a team that can bounce back from a defeat under Bill Belichick and I think they have too much for the Jets and win by around a Touchdown.


Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: There has been much excitement and belief in what may happen in Jacksonville over the coming seasons with a new, franchise Quarter Back and a Head Coach who has had considerable success at the College Football level. However, this is not going to be a short journey for the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) and the defeat to the Houston Texans in Week 1 suggests it is going to be a season with a massive learning curve in front of them

Despite the short time Urban Meyer has spent as Head Coach of the Jaguars, reports have emerged this past week that he is not entirely happy with his position as Head Coach. Players have spoken about frustration with a Head Coach that is used to winning, while others have linked Meyer with the vacant role that has just emerged with the USC Trojans back at a level he may feel most comfortable.

Other College Football Head Coaches have struggled with the mentality it takes to deal with professional football players and there is a suggestion that Urban Meyer is learning the hard way about what it takes. Trevor Lawrence is gong to be the centre piece of the rebuild, but the Jaguars have plenty of holes and all this uncertainty makes them vulnerable in their first home game of the season.

Playing in Jacksonville is not the most intimidating experience for opposition Quarter Backs and I have little doubt that Teddy Bridgewater will be comfortable in the environment created. He has become the latest Quarter Back to try and replicate the achievements of Peyton Manning with the Denver Broncos (1-0), but Teddy Bridgewater is different and happy to avoid mistakes and lean on the entire team to win games.

We saw that last week as they blew out the New York Giants on the road and I do think the Denver Broncos have a good schedule to make a fast start to the 2021 season. There is a real balance to the way the Broncos will look to play Offensively which will only aid Teddy Bridgewater and I do think Melvin Gordon will be better in the second season with the team operating this system.

He is going to be used in a tandem at Running Back and the Offensive Line showed how good they can be last week in helping the Broncos produce 5.9 yards per carry on the ground. They also largely protected Teddy Bridgewater and I am not sure the Jaguars have the pass rush pressure to rattle the Denver Quarter Back.

There are some gaping holes in the Jacksonville Secondary which can be exploited by Bridgewater even though Jerry Jeudy has gone down with an injury. The Broncos have some talent in the Receiving corps though and Denver can also lean on the strong Defensive unit to shut down the Jaguars and help them move into a 2-0 spot in the standings.

Trevor Lawrence showed what he can bring to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the years to come, but he also faced a poor Defensive unit being run by the Houston Texans. This week he will be tested in a different way by a much stronger Denver Defense and I do think the rookie Quarter Back is going to have some problems.

Vic Fangio remains the Head Coach for the Denver Broncos and he will be looking for a much improved Denver Defensive unit compared with last season when they allowed almost 28 points per game. They showed early promise against the New York Giants and it all begins with the Denver Defensive Line that showed they can shut down rushing attacks against them.

Making Jacksonville over-reliant on a rookie Quarter Back who is playing behind a shaky Offensive Line will give the Denver Broncos a real advantage in this game and I think that plays out in Week 2.

The rookie could make a couple of mistakes and I think Teddy Bridgewater will avoid doing the same and ultimately that will make the difference in this game.

It is not easy backing Denver as a favourite and especially not on the road, but they are playing a Jacksonville team that is looking like they may struggle to compete. With the uncertainty surrounding their Head Coach and with sources suggesting all is not well with Urban Meyer and the fit with the Jaguars, I will back the Denver Broncos to win and cover on the road as they did in Week 1 at the New York Giants.


Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Pick: It has been a tumultuous off-season for the Green Bay Packers (0-1) and their stand off with their star Quarter Back off an MVP season was one that was hard to watch. The Packers fans would have been disappointed with the stance of both the team and the player, but something has been resolved and Aaron Rodgers will be playing here for at least one more season.

More than likely it is the final season here for Aaron Rodgers, but I am not buying into the conspiracy theory that he has merely returned to cause havoc for the Packers... At least not yet.

It doesn't make much sense when you put it together- Aaron Rodgers is at an age where he can't really throw a season away while taking big hits, while the Packers would surely move onto Jordan Love very quickly if they felt their Quarter Back was not doing his best for the team. His team-mates wouldn't allow this from Rodgers either and it all comes down to what was a horrific Week 1 performance.

I am just going to put it down to being a bad game and the only way has to be up for the Packers who were blown out by the New Orleans Saints in Florida. Aaron Rodgers has never really played well in that State and the Saints were pumped to perform, while the game quickly got away from Green Bay who have sixteen more games to put things right.

They are playing in a Division where none of the other three NFC North teams won on Week 1 either and none of them looked too clever. The Detroit Lions (0-1) were well on their way to a blow out of their own as a new era begins in Mo-Town, but a late rally and some lucky breaks saw them get much closer to the San Francisco 49ers than they deserved.

Jared Goff played well enough in his first game for his new team, but the Lions are lacking star-power on both sides of the ball and they may be one of the weaker teams in the NFL. He is going to be challenged by this Green Bay Defensive unit which played much better than the points allowed may suggest in Week 1, although the Packers have some work of their own to do.

Detroit should have looked at the New Orleans game plan and it should mean they are going to look the ball down the Green Bay Packers throats after seeing the Packers Defensive Line gashed on the ground. The Lions best players are in the Running Back corps so they can at least keep this one competitive and control the tempo of the game by looking to establish the run and try and ease the pressure on their Quarter Back.

If they can do that, Detroit have a chance of keeping this close- Jared Goff may find himself having more time to throw the ball if the Lions are able to run the ball with any sort of consistency, although the Packers Secondary largely contained the Saints through the air. I do think the Packers Defensive Line will be stronger than they showed in Week 1 and that should see them have a chance to pin back their ears and get after Jared Goff when he steps back to throw the ball.

The former Los Angeles Rams Quarter Back had a good start to the season, but didn't get going until the second half when his new team were in a major hole. It may be asking too much for Jared Goff to win another shoot out and I think the Packers are an angry team looking to show they are much more than what they offered in the defeat to New Orleans.

The same can be said for the Offensive side of the ball for the Green Bay Packers and they will be returning home to take on a Detroit Defense that is going to be transitioning in 2021.

Aaron Rodgers won't have as bad a game as he did in Week 1 again in his career in all likelihood, but this is a 'prove it' moment for the Quarter Back. I have no doubt he wants a big season for the Packers and he is facing a Secondary that allowed over 300 passing yards to Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers last week.

It will only benefit Aaron Rodgers if the Packers can run the ball better than they did in Week 1 and I do think they will be able to lean on Aaron Jones more than they did against the Saints. That should open the field up for Rodgers and the passing game, especially as the Lions may struggle to generate the pressure New Orleans did and this looks the perfect chance for the Packers to bounce back after the dud last time out.

Matt LaFleur is a perfect 6-0 against the spread coming off a loss with the Green Bay Packers and this is a team that are 8-4 against the spread against NFC North teams under this Head Coach.

The Packers are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten games off a blow out loss of 14 points or more, while the home team is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven between these Divisional rivals.

I have to credit Detroit for the fight and the effort they made when in a deep hole last week, but that was at home and I also think they got all the breaks they needed to rally. Barring something like that happening again, I think even a backdoor cover may be beyond them and I will look for the Green Bay Packers to win and cover in this one.

MY PICKS: New York Giants + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns - 13.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Week 1: 3-6, - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Sunday, 12 September 2021

US Open Tennis Day 14 Pick- Men's Final 2021 (September 12th)

What else can you say about Emma Raducanu? The newest member of the Grand Slam Winners club really has had one of the most remarkable runs in the history of the sport and now the pressure will be on the youngster to back it up.

She fully deserved her win and Emma Raducanu looks like someone who can be in amongst the elite of Women's tennis for years to come. The WTA Tour needs a consistent star, but there is still a feeling that the top of the sport remains wide open and I would expect to see more surprising winners of the Grand Slam events in 2022.

There have been plenty of those names winning those tournaments and every player on the WTA Tour should feel they are capable of getting into a hot streak at the right time to win a Grand Slam. Some are dealing with a lot more expectations than others and I do think that keeps the tournaments wide open with those top names struggling to deal with those pressures.


On Sunday it is the turn of the Men and I do think the Final between Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev will be a good one- unlike the Women, the Men's tournaments have largely been dominated by the top names that most would have expected and it is up to the likes of Medvedev to break through the ceiling that is being held down by the Big Three.


Novak Djokovic-Daniil Medvedev over 37.5 games: History was made on Saturday as the first ever Qualifier to win a Grand Slam tournament was confirmed when Emma Raducanu deservedly picked up the US Open title.

The top of the WTA Tour remains fluid, but that is not the case on the ATP Tour as another big moment is before us.

Novak Djokovic is looking to complete the calendar Grand Slam and surpass both his rivals, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, in number of Grand Slam titles won. The World Number 1 is constantly setting new targets for himself and I have no doubt that he will be looking to surpass Margaret Court's 24 Grand Slams before his calls time on his career.

There is a huge amount of pressure that Novak Djokovic will be dealing with and this has been a tough tournament for him as he has dropped sets constantly on his way through to the Final. He has spent ten hours on the court to win his last three matches and Novak Djokovic was forced to dig very deep in seeing off Alexander Zverev in five sets on Friday night.

The scoreboard may not suggest it, but that was a match that could have easily gone the other way on the numbers and this is another big challenge for Novak Djokovic.

Some will point out the Australian Open Final as evidence of that not being the case, but Daniil Medvedev has admitted he was so short of his top game that day. I also think the conditions in New York City favour Daniil Medvedev more than in Melbourne and his progress through the draw has been very efficient.

The World Number 2 has not spent nearly as much time on the court as Novak Djokovic and his numbers have been strong throughout the week with the big serve working very well. Daniil Medvedev will be the first to admit he will need his 'A' game when it comes to the serve if he is going to beat Novak Djokovic, but he has done that before and this should be a highly competitive and very close match.

It is Novak Djokovic who leads the head to head, but it is not a dominant lead. He is 5-3 against Daniil Medvedev overall and 4-2 on the hard courts, but their sole match on a North American hard court was won by the Russian player. The strongest of the Novak Djokovic wins did come in the Australian Open Final, but in the three previous hard court matches it is Daniil Medvedev who has looked the more consistent returner, which is a remarkable thing to even write down.

His performances in this tournament and experiences of losing the Australian Open and US Open Finals before should really aid Daniil Medvedev, although the gut feeling is that Novak Djokovic will find a way to dig this out. It won't be easy though and I do think the performances of Daniil Medvedev makes it very hard to believe he will be blown away as he was in Melbourne back in February, while Novak Djokovic has to be feeling a little bit more fatigue than his opponent considering their exploits to reach this Final.

Something special may end up being produced by the current top two players in the World Rankings and I do think there will be at least four sets needed for the Champion to prevail. I am going to look for the match to go long and I will back the pair to surpass this total games line.

MY PICK: Novak Djokovic-Daniil Medvedev Over 37.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 37-32, - 0.26 Units (137 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)

Saturday, 11 September 2021

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 4 Picks 2021 (September 11-13)

SIUUUUUUUU!!!

Where else can I begin? It has to be about Cristiano Ronaldo and the return to Old Trafford after what has felt like an international break that has gone on for two months rather than two weeks.

I am fortunate enough to have a ticket to watch Ronaldo for the first time since I last saw him in a Manchester United shirt- Rome in May 2009- and I simply cannot wait. Unsurprisingly my FPL team will represent the excitement and I have activated my Wild Card far earlier than usual as I look to build on a decent, if not spectacular start to the season after three GameWeeks have been placed in the books.

First, the thoughts on the Premier League fixtures to be played this weekend.


Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There are times when results overshadow everything and you do have to feel that is the case at Tottenham Hotspur who have secured three 1-0 Premier League wins in a row. They are the only team with a perfect record in the top flight and they are considered odds on to win this fourth fixture, but a deeper look at the actual performances suggest there has been some fortune around the results.

Winning games on the pitch is what matters, but the performances have to be sustainable and so there is work for Nuno Espirito Santo to do. He will be boosted by Harry Kane committing his short-term future to the club, but the manager will not have enjoyed the international break very much.

Three players are going to have to quarantine having represented South American nations in the international break, while both Steven Bergwijn and Heung-Min Son are doubts and could be vital losses if they cannot go this weekend.

Even then, Spurs are considered the favourites against a Crystal Palace team which is still finding its feet under new manager Patrick Vieira. The last couple of performances have been better and Vieira will have been pleased with the attacking display in the 2-2 draw at West Ham United two weeks ago, and that certainly gives Patrick Vieira something to build upon.

There have been some signs that the defensive capabilities of the Crystal Palace squad are still there even after the departure of Roy Hodgson and I do think this is a team that can pick up a positive result.

The first goal is going to be important in this opening Premier League fixture of this weekend, but I do think Crystal Palace are being underestimated. Better finishing from Manchester City and Wolves would have seen them pick up results against Spurs and I do think the latter are going to step back from the early season form unless vastly improving.

With a long injury list to deal with, I think Crystal Palace can take advantage of Tottenham Hotspur with the home supporters firmly behind them. The Eagles are unbeaten in 3 at home in all competitions against Tottenham Hotspur and they can extend that run to another game on Saturday with the attacking players looking like they can build on the performance at the London Stadium.


Arsenal v Norwich City Pick: Three Premier League games, zero points and a minus nine goal difference.

A 6-0 win over a Championship club in the League Cup Second Round.

Arsenal and Norwich City have made very similar starts to the 2021/22 season as two of the three clubs that have yet to produce a Premier League point this season. Both have also suffered a 5-0 hammering at Champions Manchester City and this is a big weekend for Arsenal and Norwich City as they look to pick up points from a better looking set of fixtures than they had to deal with in August.

The pressure is more squarely on Mikel Arteta with rumours that Arsenal are already sounding out replacements. He will be boosted by a more winnable fixture than the last two in the Premier League and the manager will also be able to call on the likes of Ben White, Thomas Partey and Nicolas Pepe this weekend which should give the Arsenal squad a boost.

They did have a strong second half of the season in the Premier League last time around and I do think Arsenal can offer more in fixtures like this rather than facing the top six clubs. The 2-0 defeat at Brentford was a huge disappointment, but Arsenal were missing key players for that one and they look healthier all around.

Norwich City have also been left pointless after being handed a start that saw them face three top five clubs from last season in August. Daniel Farke will have been pleased with some of the attacking play against Liverpool and Leicester City, but Norwich City will have to be a lot better defensively if they are going to avoid a second relegation in three seasons.

I expect Arsenal to have been working on their own defensive shape over the last two weeks and having Ben White and Thomas Partey back could be key for the team. They have enough attacking quality to feel they can open up this Norwich City team who have lost their last 7 away Premier League games and I do think Arsenal are going to produce a big result to keep the wolves from the door for their manager.

The visitors should pose one or two problems, but Arsenal have beaten Norwich City 5 times in a row at home and I expect them to be able to do that again on Saturday.


Brentford v Brighton Pick: There is no love lost between the two owners of Brentford and Brighton and Matthew Benham and Tony Bloom have not really repaired their relationship. However, both have a similar way of operating their football clubs and both Brentford and Brighton will feel their methods are going to be good enough to maintain their spot in the Premier League.

Bragging rights are going to be important on Saturday and I do think both managers will be aware of the need for a positive result, perhaps even more so than usual.

In saying that, the players should be largely shielded from the issues their club's owners have with one another and all the squads are going to be focusing on is building on a positive start to the season. The two teams have both progressed in the League Cup and Brentford have earned 5 points, while Brighton have 6 points in the Premier League.

Brighton have perhaps been the stronger performers early in the season, although Graham Potter will want his team to show slightly more in the defensive areas of the pitch. The hosts might be unbeaten, but Brentford could have easily had fewer points on the board and I do think they have not been as creative in the final third as Thomas Frank may be asking.

That could leave them vulnerable in this home game, although I do think the Brentford Community Stadium will be a difficult ground for teams to visit. The home fans will give Brentford a boost, but I think Brighton's play under Graham Potter has been very encouraging and they are looking like being a creative threat much like they were last season too.

The key for Graham Potter is that the early fixtures have suggested Brighton may not be as wasteful in front of goal and they were comfortable home winners over newly promoted Watford last month. Brentford will be a tougher team to break down, especially being at home and with the early form showing they are well organised and tough to open up.

That makes this a close match and I am not surprised the layers are having a hard time separating the teams. However, I do think Brighton's early performances in the final third are encouraging enough to believe they deserve the edge and they can be backed on the Asian Handicap to secure the three points.


Leicester City v Manchester City Pick: There is some real uncertainty coming out of the international break and even more so than usual for Manchester City who have seen the Brazilian FA enforce FIFA regulations that will rule Ederson and Gabriel Jesus out for this fixture.

The Premier League are trying to work things out and so the status of these two players will be determined later this week.

If Ederson is ruled out, Manchester City could be down to third choice Scott Carson to play between the sticks and that may leave them a little vulnerable. The last time Carson played, Manchester City conceded three times to Newcastle United, but breaking down the Champions won't be easy.

Manchester City have been in control of their last two Premier League matches and this Leicester City team have opened the season with some mixed performances. They were terrible in the heavy loss to West Ham United, while Leicester City were fortunate to beat Wolves in their sole home game played this season.

Brendan Rodgers may have some defensive reinforcements back in time for this one, but he will also want his Leicester City team to show a little more in the final third. Finding that balance against Manchester City is going to be very difficult, especially if Leicester City are continuing to struggle at the back.

I do expect Pep Guardiola's men to dominate the possession and they should have enough to win here even accounting for some of the players that are going to miss out. In the last two Premier League games, Manchester City have looked very strong at the back and they have won 3 of their last 4 Premier League games at the King Power Stadium.

Games between these clubs have tended to be low-scoring in recent years and 7 of the last 10 have ended with less than three goals shared out. That includes the game in the Community Shield, while the fixtures hosted by Leicester City have tended to be tight.

5 of the last 6 at the King Power Stadium have finished with fewer than three goals shared out and the feeling is that this will be another. Manchester City should end up as narrow winners on the day, but both teams may be looking to build any foundation for success on their defensive shape in this one.


Manchester United v Newcastle United Pick: There has been a huge amount of excitement in the Manchester United fanbase ever since it was announced that Cristiano Ronaldo will be returning to the club and this two week international break will have felt like a lifetime for many.

The fixture is not being broadcasted in the United Kingdom, but for those fortunate to have tickets this is a much anticipated game.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men have produced 7 points so far this season and the signing of Ronaldo is one that could see Manchester United really build a title challenge. Last season Manchester United only won 9 of 19 home Premier League games, but Cristiano Ronaldo's presence could see them put a few more victories on the board.

Manchester United have played well in the first month, but there is room for improvement and this is a fixture that looks a good one on paper. First off Manchester United scored seven goals against Newcastle United in the Premier League last season, while The Magpies have had a poor start to the new campaign and look vulnerable.

Steve Bruce will soon be feeling the pressure again and his team have conceded at least two goals in each of their Premier League games played. Newcastle United have been comfortably beaten by both Aston Villa and West Ham United and the chances they have allowed teams to create against them is a massive worry.

Callum Wilson may be missing too, which only makes life that much more difficult for Newcastle United, and I do think they are going to struggle to contain the hosts. There should be a really hot crowd at Old Trafford to welcome back Cristiano Ronaldo and that should give the Manchester United players a boost much like it did in the 5-1 win over Leeds United.

An early goal would create a real problem for Newcastle United and Manchester United are capable of putting them to the sword. They have won 4 in a row at Old Trafford against Newcastle United and Manchester United have scored at least three goals in each of those home victories.

It feels like a match that Manchester United should control and I would expect the home team to score the goals that sees them win by a couple of goals at the very least.


Southampton v West Ham United Pick: Both of these teams went into the September international break off the back of a 2-2 draw, but Southampton would have been more pleased with their result compared with West Ham United.

A lot of key players have left Southampton this summer, but they have made a decent start to the season and they will feel they can hurt a West Ham United team who have looked a little vulnerable at the back. However, the bigger problem for Southampton is finding the balance to contain the strong attacking play David Moyes' men have put together.

I think that gives West Ham United the edge in the match and I do think they are going to be able to create chances. In the first two Premier League games, Southampton looked a little ragged at the back as the team gets used to being without Ryan Bertrand and Jannik Vestegaard, and I do believe that gives this West Ham United team spaces to exploit.

The Hammers have won 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games and this is a team that is playing with confidence as they sit in 2nd place in the table. The goals they are scoring makes West Ham United a very dangerous team at the moment and I do think they are going to take the game to their hosts.

Southampton may feel they can play a part in the game too, especially if they are as positive as they were at St James' Park two weeks ago. However, they have been a little inconsistent in the final third before that fixture against Newcastle United and I do think that says more about the latter than it does about Southampton.

West Ham United have a decent record at St Mary's in recent seasons and they can win for the third time in four visits. David Moyes will be hoping the September international break has not broken their momentum, and, if it hasn't, West Ham United should have enough threat in the final third to lead to the three points.


Watford v Wolves Pick: The underlying numbers have been very impressive from Wolves in the first three Premier League games played this season, but those are not enough to appease the fans. While they have played well enough to perhaps win all of their League games, Wolves have been impotent in the final third and that has led to 1-0 defeats to Leicester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United.

Poor finishing has been a real problem for Bruno Lage's men, but they have been creating some solid opportunities in all of the fixtures played. Defensively Wolves have looked pretty good for the most part and only a mistake from their goalkeeper cost them a positive result against Manchester United two weeks ago.

If they can continue producing these levels of performance, I do think Wolves are going to turn things around and start picking up some big results. However, they could be without Raul Jimenez this weekend to add to the attacking issues and Wolves are also visiting a ground on which Watford have enjoyed plenty of successes.

Back to back away Premier League defeats will have hurt, but Watford know it is the form at Vicarage Road which will determine whether they can avoid the drop or not. They have already won twice at home this season and that means they have won 11 in a row here in all competitions, while Watford have been reliant on strong defensive performances in those games.

They looked pretty well organised in the narrow defeat at Tottenham Hotspur two weeks ago too and I do think Watford are capable of producing a positive result as an underdog. I can't ignore the fact that Wolves are playing much better than their results suggest and they have dangerous players in their squad, but Watford haven't played badly and are clearly very comfortable in home surroundings.

Two seasons ago Watford did enough to beat Wolves at home and I think they are worth backing as the underdog with a slight start on the Asian Handicap. The first goal could be massively important in this one, but Watford have scored first in their last 17 home games in all competitions and the home underdog can produce a positive result on the day.


Chelsea v Aston Villa Pick: The first international break of the 2021/22 season has caused some havoc for domestic clubs around Europe and particularly for those in the Premier League who have chosen to prevent players representing their South American nations.

It means Chelsea and Aston Villa are going to be missing some key players for this Premier League fixture, while injuries across the last two weeks could also have an impact on the game.

Romelu Lukaku would be a big miss for Chelsea, but Aston Villa are missing their first choice goalkeeper and have injuries in the squad that leaves them vulnerable. Ezra Konsa may also be missing and that leaves the heart of the Aston Villa team looking short of the quality they may need to take on a Chelsea team that have opened the season with positive performances and results.

The home advantage should be more important for teams this season compared with last and Chelsea have already beaten Crystal Palace here. Aston Villa are still finding their feet without Jack Grealish and they have looked a little shaky at both ends of the field and being without Emiliano Martinez is just another blow for Dean Smith to absorb.

Danny Ings has shown he can provide goals for Aston Villa and Ollie Watkins should be available, but Chelsea are well organised defensively. They have the attacking players that can make up for any Lukaku absence and the feeling is that Chelsea will have too much for their short-handed visitors in the late Saturday kick off.

Thomas Tuchel's tactics can be a little geared towards making sure Chelsea are hard to beat, but since he took over at Stamford Bridge they have won 5 of 11 Premier League games by two or more goal margins. Defensively Chelsea should be able to contain much of what Aston Villa bring to the table and I think they have the players that can score the goals to ensure a relatively comfortable win on the day.


Leeds United v Liverpool Pick: The late Sunday afternoon offering from the Premier League will see a full Elland Road having the opportunity to host one of the traditional big English clubs. After a season watching the team at home, the fans will be keen to provide a big atmosphere for the Leeds United players when they face Liverpool.

Marcelo Bielsa's men are unbeaten in 8 at Elland Road in all competitions and they have given some of the top teams something to think about in the second half of last season. Leeds United have not had the best of starts to this campaign, but they are a team that will put pressure on their opponent and they will be looking to create chances.

They will likely cause some problems for Liverpool, but Leeds United have not made the best of starts to this season from a defensive point of view. It is a worry for them when you think of the kind of chances that Liverpool have been creating and I do believe that will give the visitors the edge in this match.

When Leeds United hosted Everton, it was the team from Liverpool that created the best opportunities and I imagine The Reds will do something similar.

Even with Roberto Firmino expected to miss out, Liverpool should have the attacking threats to give Leeds United a number of problems to work out. I expect Leeds United will have some joy if Alisson is expected to sit out for Liverpool, but they are going to be without Raphinha and that does take away a real part of the threat that the home team would usually offer.

It would not be a massive surprise if both teams hit the back of the net, but the feeling is that Liverpool's attacking output early this season will give them the edge. The game here finished 1-1 last season, but Liverpool will feel they would have won that game if they showed more of a clinical edge.

That was also missing in the 1-1 draw with Chelsea two weeks ago, but Liverpool have beaten both Norwich City and Burnley pretty comfortably. Liverpool should have too much for Leeds United in this live game and they can win a game that should feature at least two goals.


Everton v Burnley Pick: The final Premier League game of the weekend could be a relatively decent watch if the early season form of Everton and Burnley is anything to go by.

Everton are the ones with the points on the board, but Burnley have arguably deserved more than a single point from a home defeat to Brighton and a home draw with Leeds United. They conceded late in the draw with Leeds United two weeks ago, while Burnley have lost 4 of their last 6 away Premier League games.

The hosts have made a good start under Rafael Benitez and 7 points from a possible 9 is very encouraging. The underlying numbers don't lie too much either and Everton have fully deserved their points and led twice at Leeds United before having to settle for a 2-2 draw away from home.

Rafael Benitez has helped his team find a pretty good balance and Everton are going to have Dominic Calvert-Lewin leading the line. The toe injury has slowed down the striker a little bit, but he leads the line effectively for Everton and this is a team creating chances.

I expect they can keep that going here with Burnley yet to really show their defensive organisation that people associate with a Sean Dyche team. As well as they have played at times, Burnley have looked vulnerable at the back and I do think a full Goodison Park crowd under the lights can inspire Everton to a victory.

Goals might not be too hard to find if these teams can pick up from where they left off a couple of weeks ago and I think Everton will get the better of a relatively high-scoring game. They were beaten by Burnley here last season, but the start to this campaign suggests Everton will be stronger and I think they show that by beating Burnley for the sixth time in eight home games against them.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace + 0.5 Asian Handicap
Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap
Brighton 0 Asian Handicap
Leicester City-Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals
Manchester United - 1.75 Asian Handicap
West Ham United 0 Asian Handicap
Watford + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Liverpool to Win & Over 1.5 Goals
Everton to Win & Over 1.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 4
The decision was made to use my Wild Card as soon as it became clear that Cristiano Ronaldo was signing for Manchester United.

Call it the heart ruling the head, but CR7 has a number of good looking fixtures to be played between now and the next international break and I think he is still a player capable of producing big returns at this level.

This is not an uncommon time for me to use my Wild Card as the summer transfer window has come to a conclusion, but in the last couple of seasons I have tended to hold onto the card.

However, this time around I had a couple of players I wanted to move on and bringing in Cristiano Ronaldo would have taken a couple more moves on top of that.

There are teams that have started fairly well that I had not picked in my original FPL squad and I think this is a good time to bring some of those players in, while I should have enough time to make sure I don't miss out on some of the good runs coming up for the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea.

Those clubs have premium assets, but the likes of Wolves, Arsenal, Leeds United and Everton have decent fixtures coming up too.

Injuries and Covid concerns are never that far away, but like any Wild Card team, I am going to be playing with my selections for as long as possible.

At around 11am on Saturday morning I will reveal my GW4 team on Twitter