The first couple of days at the US Open have been used as a watching brief for myself after what had been a difficult month of Tennis Picks.
Even taking a step back at the start of a Grand Slam is not a bad decision to just make sure things are aligned as I would like and so it is important to be able to do that. It remains a very strong season for the Tennis Picks, but I do want to make sure this final Grand Slam of 2019 produces the results to get things ticking back in a positive direction.
The main contenders are all in New York City and I am going to sound like a broken record player by repeating that the men's event looks like it will be dominated by the top three players in the world and the women's is going to be very open.
In saying that, the US Open has been the tournament with the more varied Slam Champions in the men's game for a number of years now and so perhaps it will be the moment for Daniil Medvedev to back up what has been a very successful month to this point. In the last ten years Juan Martin Del Potro and Marin Cilic have won their only Grand Slam here in New York City, but Medvedev looks like someone who will be able to win multiple Slams as long as he stays healthy, while a run to the final eight would be seen as a successful tournament and keep the development going in the right direction.
As with any of the recent Grand Slams, I can make a case for a number of women to win the tournament, but perhaps Serena Williams will be the one to make ultimate redemption having been involved in the controversial Final of twelve months ago. She will need to try and get through the early Rounds without being pushed too hard, and Williams has lost some of the aura that has surrounded her, but it will be difficult to beat her as it has proven to be in recent Slams even though she has not gone on to equal Margaret Court's record just yet.
Below you can read my thoughts on a few of the matches I have selected from the Wednesday Second Round matches and I have also added any other selections to the 'MY PICKS' section.
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 sets v Jeremy Chardy: Even though he has made improvements in 2019, it still feels like Stan Wawrinka is some way away from the form that saw him win three of the four Grand Slams. His numbers have remained pretty average with the limited success on the return of serve preventing from really putting some strong runs together and even the four sets he needed to come through his First Round match shows Wawrinka is a vulnerable player.
When you are struggling with the return of serve, it can put a lot of pressure on the serve and protecting that. Stan Wawrinka does not look like someone who is going to recover too many sets from being down a break and I do think he is someone that can be opposed in the early Rounds of tournaments before any momentum is put together.
It may not be right in the Second Round in New York City though as Wawrinka gets set to take on Jeremy Chardy who needed to come from 2-1 down in sets to upset Hubert Hurkacz in the First Round. The veteran Frenchman has been pretty average on the hard courts in 2019 and he has dropped down to Number 74 in the World Rankings while Chardy decided to only take on one hard court tournament prior to the US Open which may underline his own lack of belief in having a deep run here.
The win in the First Round will give Chardy some confidence and his serve can be a decent enough weapon for him. Jeremy Chardy has produced some consistent numbers over the last twelve months when comparing those to his 2019 numbers alone and the Frenchman is holding around 82% of service games played on the hard courts.
That is a mark only a little down on what Stan Wawrinka has been able to put together on the hard courts, but it is the higher Ranked player who also has the slightly superior returning numbers. Neither player has been able to put any consistent pressure on the return of serve, but the slightly better mark for Stan Wawrinka has to help as will his 5-0 head to head mark against Jeremy Chardy.
It has been over three years since these two have met on the Tour, but those previous matches have shown that Wawrinka's serve has more joy than the Chardy one and I am expecting something similar here. On recent form Stan Wawrinka can't be trusted easily to cover any kind of number, but he should be the better player and even a tight win in three or four sets is the most likely outcome in this match.
Reilly Opelka - 1.5 sets v Dominik Koepfer: Earlier this month Reilly Opelka reached a new career high in his World Ranking and he will be celebrating his 22nd birthday on the day he plays in the Second Round at the US Open. This is the first year the American is playing in the main draw at his home Grand Slam and beating Seeded Fabio Fognini in the First Round will open up his section and give Opelka every chance of finding a path into the second week of a Slam for the first time.
He can't take anything for granted though when taking on Dominik Koepfer who has come through the Qualifiers and won a main draw match against a higher Ranked opponent. Like his opponent, Koepfer reached his career high World Ranking earlier this month, but he is likely to crack the top 100 for the first time at the end of this tournament and almost certainly if he can upset the home player in the Second Round.
The German has shown he is very comfortable on the hard courts, but the majority of his successes have come off the main Tour. The makes the win in the First Round very important, but Koepfer would have expected to get the better of Jaume Munar and this is a much different kind of test for him.
Reilly Opelka is someone who has a huge serve which will put pressure on opponents, but he is a below average returner and that makes it difficult to believe in him. He will be looking to improve that, but like John Isner I do think Opelka will always be fairly limited and his hope is to build scoreboard pressure on any opponent.
It could easily work in a match like this one when you think Dominik Koepfer has held 77% of service games played and the majority of those are in matches away from the main Tour. He has shown to be a much better returner than Reilly Opelka, but the latter's serve is not easy to deal with and I think it is going to be the difference maker on the day.
The American holds a 3-0 head to head advantage over Koepfer and all of those matches have been on the hard courts over an eleven month period. In those matches Reilly Opelka has held 94% of service games played against Dominik Koepfer, while the latter has held 92%. That is not a big difference, but in terms of points won, Reilly Opelka has a significant edge which suggests he will be the more likely to earn some break points and also have an edge when it comes to any tie-breakers that will need to be played.
Dominik Koepfer has to be respected for coming through the Qualifiers and earning another win in the First Round, but I think Reilly Opelka can be backed to win this one in three or four sets.
Yoshihito Nishioka - 1.5 sets v Feliciano Lopez: Not many would have expected the veteran Feliciano Lopez to get the better of Taylor Fritz in the First Round, but he came from behind to win that match in four sets. Now he has to take on another player looking to begin to make a consistent impact on the Tour and once against Lopez is going to be the underdog to move through to another Round.
A surprising run to win the title at Queens Club back in June has stopped what had been a big slide down the World Rankings for Lopez, but ultimately it may be one of the last really big moments of his career. In recent years the Spaniard has not been the same force on the hard courts as he once had been and the limited return game has been one that has forced Lopez to try and get more out of the serve.
Over the last twelve months Feliciano Lopez has held 82% of the service games played on the hard courts and he has broken in 13% of return games. His percentage of points won behind the serve have continued to slide and that leaves him very vulnerable in matches that he might have once been expected to win.
In the Second Round he takes on Yoshihito Nishioka who produces some decent, if not spectacular, hard court tennis and who reached the Quarter Final in Cincinnati earlier this month. Like Lopez, Nishioka came from behind to win his First Round match in four sets and he will be heading into this match with some confidence after the tennis he has produced in recent weeks, although Nishioka is still a little inconsistent.
There needs to be a big improvement as far as his serve goes if Nishioka is going to make strides on the main Tour, and he has held just 74% of service games played on the hard courts in 2019. That is going to leave the Japanese player vulnerable when he plays the better players out there, but Nishioka is a very strong returner and I think he will be able to use the Lopez limitations on the return to help him get through in this one.
These players have met once before and it was Nishioka who beat Lopez in straight sets on the hard courts of Miami. That match took place in March 2016, but Lopez has slipped somewhat since then and I think Nishioka should have enough to get the better of him.
Feliciano Lopez will be confident after beating Taylor Fritz, but I expect the Nishioka return to ensure a win in three or four sets.
Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: It has been a difficult fifteen months for Damir Dzumhur who has slipped from his career best World Ranking of Number 23 in July 2018 all the way back to Number 99 as he enters the US Open. The First Round win over Elliot Benchetrit might be good enough to prevent the Bosnian from falling out of the top 100, but it is going to need a massive upset for Dzumhur to prolong his stay in New York City.
The Second Round draw pits Dzumhur with former World Number 1 Roger Federer who is one of the leading favourites to win the title over the next two weeks. It was not an ideal start to the tournament for Federer having dropped the first set against Sumit Nagal having also been upset in the early Rounds in Cincinnati while preparing for this event, but the fact Federer was able to turn things around as comprehensively as he did will help.
Just under two months ago Roger Federer dropped the first set he played at Wimbledon, but he improved markedly from that time and perhaps should have won the title there. He will be hoping something similar happens here in New York City, although the declining numbers on the return of serve have to be a concern for the Swiss superstar.
Ultimately I don't think those issues will present a problem for Federer in this match as Damir Dzumhur is only holding 68% of service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months. That is despite the fact that Dzumhur has had to step back his level as his World Ranking has fallen, while his return game is not really one that looks to be able to threaten Federer.
Roger Federer has held 90% of service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months and he has won 70% of points played behind the serve on the surface. The expectation is that Federer is going to be able to keep Dzumhur under pressure and he should then be able to do enough to find the breaks of serve he needs to get into a position to cover the number.
This is actually going to be the third Grand Slam Roger Federer and Damir Dzumhur are meeting in, although the previous two matches were at the French Open and Wimbledon in 2015. In those matches Roger Federer held 96% of service games played and he broke in 42% of return games and, while he has declined in terms of the return in that time, I do think Federer is going to put Dzumhur under immense pressure throughout the time they spend on court.
Without a doubt this is a big handicap for Roger Federer to cover these days, but I am expecting a more dominant performance from the off compared with the First Round match he played. That should see him find the breaks of serve he will need to cover this number and I will look for him to do that.
David Goffin - 7.5 games v Gregoire Barrere: The last twelve months have seen David Goffin not able to produce the kind of tennis that has taken him into the top 10 of the World Rankings. Inconsistent results have been a real problem for the Belgian, but he has beaten an overmatched Frenchman in the First Round and the same will be expected when he takes on Gregoire Barrere in the Second Round.
David Goffin did drop a set in the First Round which underlines that he is still someone whose levels are not consistently at the same heights as they would have been eighteen months ago. The 78% of service games being held does leave Goffin vulnerable to dropping sets and being under pressure, but he remains a decent enough returner which is helping him avoid a significant drop in the World Rankings.
He is going into the Second Round as a big favourite to beat Gregoire Barrere who has come through the Qualifiers and stunned Cameron Norrie with a tough five set win in the First Round. Winning a final set tie-breaker is huge for Barrere who had been 1-5 in main Tour hard court matches before his win in the main draw here.
The Frenchman has held 78% of service games played on the hard courts on the main Tour in 2019, but he has continued to have his issues when it comes to the return of serve. That is potentially a huge boost for David Goffin who has considerably stronger returning stats which should mean he is the more likely to recover breaks of serve as well as potentially being able to pull away from his opponent in one or two sets played.
Gregoire Barrere's overall numbers on the hard courts are decent enough, but he has already had a difficult week in New York City and I do wonder if there is going to be some fatigue issues at play. At least the Qualifiers are not played in a best of five set format, but the First Round match saw three of the five sets needing tie-breakers and it would have been an emotional as well as physical effort put into the win.
These players met over three years ago at the French Open and it was David Goffin who won the match in pretty routine fashion. At this stage Gregoire Barrere must believe he is in a much better position to compete, but I still think Goffin has a significant edge in the match and I would expect him to get the better of this match.
Considering the form of the last twelve months I have to be slightly wary with the number of games that David Goffin has to cover. The Belgian also has a miserable record against players Ranked outside the top 100 on the hard courts over the last twelve months, but I expect his return game to get the better of Gregoire Barrere and I will back David Goffin to cover.
Alex De Minaur - 5.5 games v Cristian Garin: It has been a very good twelve months for Cristian Garin who has moved so far up the World Rankings that he is coming into this tournament as one of the Seeded players. The majority of his successes have come on the clay courts on which Garin will feel most comfortable though and that is the reason he is the underdog when he faces Alex De Minaur in the First Round.
The Chilean needed five sets to beat Christopher Eubanks in the First Round, but this is another step up for him against an opponent who is very happy on the hard courts. Cristian Garin has a really poor record on the hard courts as far as main Tour matches are concerned and his numbers reflect that too.
In fact even his overall numbers in 2019 on the hard courts need improving as Garin has only held 70% of the service games played on the surface. Returning serve has been a real struggle too and all in all you would have to make him a significant underdog in this match and perhaps a bigger one than he is.
Alex De Minaur has slipped back from his peak career World Ranking of Number 24 from earlier this year, but he is still very much at his happiest on the hard courts. There has been a real improvement in his level in 2019 compared with previous seasons and it is the De Minaur serve that has been a vital part of that improvement.
In 2019 the Australian is holding 87% of the service games played on the hard courts, but I think De Minaur would be the first to admit that he will want to be more effective on the return of serve if he is really going to kick on in his career. Last season Alex De Minaur was breaking in 24% of return games played on the hard courts, but that number has slipped to 20% this time around, although the serve has covered any drop off when it comes to win-loss record.
He was a solid winner in the First Round and I do think this is the kind of match that Alex De Minaur should be good enough to control. If he serves well he should keep Cristian Garin under pressure and the relatively vulnerable serve of the higher Ranked player should mean De Minaur has enough to be in a position to cover this number of games on the handicap.
I would have been looking for Alex De Minaur to have had to cover more games than where the line is set though and I will look for the Australian to continue serene progress at the US Open after a strong First Round win.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Sets @ 1.61 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Reilly Opelka - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Yoshihito Nishioka - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 8.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Goffin - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
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Tuesday, 27 August 2019
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Boxing Picks 2019- Sergey Kovalev vs Anthony Yarde (August 24th)
There is something of a break in the Boxing Season that takes place for a few weeks in July and August, but we are back with a bang this weekend as Anthony Yarde takes a big risk to travel to Russia in a bid to dethrone the Champion Sergey Kovalev.
Next weekend UK fans are given a real treat when Vasyl Lomachenko fights in London for the first time as a professional and we then go into what could be a strong end to the 2019 year with some big fights in the offing.
The last time I had any picks from a Boxing event it was the weekend of the Dillian Whyte bout against Oscar Rivas, but suffice to say there has been plenty of controversy coming out of the event. While it was said by Eddie Hearn that Whyte had been cleared to fight despite popping positive for a drugs test administered, the lack of information that has come out since then suggests there is more to the story and it really feels like Whyte's career has taken a dent.
It is easy for Eddie Hearn to hide behind legal issues, but I don't remember him being so calm when others have failed tests recently. But then again he doesn't promote those fighters either(!)
Dillian Whyte himself must feel that he should have taken his shot at taking on Anthony Joshua rather than trying to force a mandatory spot, especially if this has been some sort of mistake that takes time to clear up. UKAD have a habit of working through a slow process and it is going to be difficult for Whyte to be out again in 2019 as he wanted which is a real shame at the end of the day.
The Heavyweight Division continues to be in flux as the big fights most wanted are delayed until 2020 at the earliest. Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder have apparently signed on to meet in February next year, but Wilder has yet to announce his date for the rematch with Luis Ortiz that is supposed to have taken place in September, but is now looking to land on a November date which does raise questions whether the turnaround to a February fight with Fury really works.
Tyson Fury is back in early September in another fight where he is unlikely to be pushed, but it is not a surprise considering they won't want to blow up the Wilder fight before getting into the ring with the American for a second time.
And of course it has been announced that Anthony Joshua will have the rematch against Andy Ruiz Jr later this year in a fight that has been confirmed for Saudi Arabia. The former World Champion made some controversial remarks both about the way the first fight developed and about perceived critics with the most notable being the 'clown' comment aimed at Lennox Lewis.
It is nice to see a different side of Joshua as he looks to re-fire the passion as he bids to regain the belts he lost at Madison Square Garden, but I would also hope he is doing some strong tactical work to best approach the rematch than seriously believing it was just a 'lucky punch' that cost him that fateful day in June.
Other fights I am looking forward to later this year are the WBSS Finals which are expected to be finalised shortly- I am attending the Lomachenko-Campbell event at the O2 next weekend, but I am also hoping to have an opportunity to see the Regis Prograis vs Josh Taylor fight here if the rumoured date and venue are confirmed.
There are some other decent events that have been announced which should make for a fun end to the year in what has been an underwhelming one so far. I think I am speaking from the perspective of fans in the United Kingdom when I say that, but the arrival of Lomachenko to these shores and the possibility of one of the World Boxing Super Series Finals being here will certainly make for a positive.
The last set of Boxing Picks had a pretty miserable time and made a serious dent in the season totals. I was very disappointed with the selections to be perfectly honest and I will be looking for a much stronger end to 2019 to ensure back to back years with a profit.
On Saturday the main card that is catching my interest is the one in Russia where Anthony Yarde looks to take a major step in his career by beating Sergey Kovalev in front of his home fans.
There is also a card in Mexico which is headed up by Juan Francisco Estrada fresh off a career best win and who is looking to move into Unification bouts later in the year and into 2020. Liam Smith and Jono Carroll are UK and Irish representatives on the card which will be shown live in the UK, but most here will be focusing on the Anthony Yarde fight which is going to have a ring walk at around 7:30pm London time.
Next weekend UK fans are given a real treat when Vasyl Lomachenko fights in London for the first time as a professional and we then go into what could be a strong end to the 2019 year with some big fights in the offing.
The last time I had any picks from a Boxing event it was the weekend of the Dillian Whyte bout against Oscar Rivas, but suffice to say there has been plenty of controversy coming out of the event. While it was said by Eddie Hearn that Whyte had been cleared to fight despite popping positive for a drugs test administered, the lack of information that has come out since then suggests there is more to the story and it really feels like Whyte's career has taken a dent.
It is easy for Eddie Hearn to hide behind legal issues, but I don't remember him being so calm when others have failed tests recently. But then again he doesn't promote those fighters either(!)
Dillian Whyte himself must feel that he should have taken his shot at taking on Anthony Joshua rather than trying to force a mandatory spot, especially if this has been some sort of mistake that takes time to clear up. UKAD have a habit of working through a slow process and it is going to be difficult for Whyte to be out again in 2019 as he wanted which is a real shame at the end of the day.
The Heavyweight Division continues to be in flux as the big fights most wanted are delayed until 2020 at the earliest. Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder have apparently signed on to meet in February next year, but Wilder has yet to announce his date for the rematch with Luis Ortiz that is supposed to have taken place in September, but is now looking to land on a November date which does raise questions whether the turnaround to a February fight with Fury really works.
Tyson Fury is back in early September in another fight where he is unlikely to be pushed, but it is not a surprise considering they won't want to blow up the Wilder fight before getting into the ring with the American for a second time.
And of course it has been announced that Anthony Joshua will have the rematch against Andy Ruiz Jr later this year in a fight that has been confirmed for Saudi Arabia. The former World Champion made some controversial remarks both about the way the first fight developed and about perceived critics with the most notable being the 'clown' comment aimed at Lennox Lewis.
It is nice to see a different side of Joshua as he looks to re-fire the passion as he bids to regain the belts he lost at Madison Square Garden, but I would also hope he is doing some strong tactical work to best approach the rematch than seriously believing it was just a 'lucky punch' that cost him that fateful day in June.
Other fights I am looking forward to later this year are the WBSS Finals which are expected to be finalised shortly- I am attending the Lomachenko-Campbell event at the O2 next weekend, but I am also hoping to have an opportunity to see the Regis Prograis vs Josh Taylor fight here if the rumoured date and venue are confirmed.
There are some other decent events that have been announced which should make for a fun end to the year in what has been an underwhelming one so far. I think I am speaking from the perspective of fans in the United Kingdom when I say that, but the arrival of Lomachenko to these shores and the possibility of one of the World Boxing Super Series Finals being here will certainly make for a positive.
The last set of Boxing Picks had a pretty miserable time and made a serious dent in the season totals. I was very disappointed with the selections to be perfectly honest and I will be looking for a much stronger end to 2019 to ensure back to back years with a profit.
On Saturday the main card that is catching my interest is the one in Russia where Anthony Yarde looks to take a major step in his career by beating Sergey Kovalev in front of his home fans.
There is also a card in Mexico which is headed up by Juan Francisco Estrada fresh off a career best win and who is looking to move into Unification bouts later in the year and into 2020. Liam Smith and Jono Carroll are UK and Irish representatives on the card which will be shown live in the UK, but most here will be focusing on the Anthony Yarde fight which is going to have a ring walk at around 7:30pm London time.
Sergey Kovalev vs Anthony Yarde
When this fight was initially announced as taking place at the end of June I was pretty sure that Anthony Yarde's team had seen something in Sergey Kovalev that made them confident, but personally I felt the fight was coming too soon and with too big a step up from the levels he had been operating at to then take on and beat a strong World Champion.
There is little doubt that Kovalev is not the feared fighter who took on Andre Ward with the two battles against him and the tough two fights with Eleider Alvarez showing a slippage. Some suggested the Russian was not working as hard as he could, while others believed he was just a faded Champion whose unprofessional ways out of the ring had finally caught up with.
I don't think Kovalev is the fighter he once was, but he is still a grizzled veteran who is now working under Buddy McGirt and I think the performance against Alvarez to earn his belts back was a good one. I have to believe the potential huge payday in front of him for taking on another Alvarez, Canelo, should also give Kovalev plenty of motivation and he is also at home.
This is the first professional fight Kovalev will have in Chelyabinsk and I do think it is going to be very difficult for Anthony Yarde to do the kind of inside work he would like in a Russian ring. That might sound controversial or one for the conspiracy theorists out there, but I do think the money that looks to be in front of Kovalev with a potential fight against Canelo is going to see him perhaps looked after like Anthony Joshua was in his win over Joseph Parker.
I will admit that I would love to see Yarde get it done in Russia, but I do think he is going to have to beat Kovalev by Stoppage to take the title home. At this moment we know he can hit hard, but I think the question is whether Yarde can set up his shots with the quality of boxing that Kovalev can produce.
Sergey Kovalev has a very good jab and we are going to be learning much about Anthony Yarde in the fight which makes it difficult to pick him. His team have great personalities and their enthusiasm and belief has certainly been infectious and it has also just made me think twice about my pick.
Part of the reason is I really would love to see Yarde come home as a World Champion, but the head is ruling the heart and my overriding feeling is that this may have come a touch too soon. We know Sergey Kovalev is not the fighter of old, but I think everyone is going to benefit from seeing him take on Canelo Alvarez later this year in a fight I would make the smaller man moving up weights a significant favourite.
For now Kovalev can keep his part of any potential deal alive by winning this fight as I look for a similar performance to the one that took care of Eleider Alvaraz in their rematch. Sergey Kovalev will likely box long and try and showcase his superior talent and he can keep just about enough in the tank to remain out of harms way in the Championship Rounds of this one.
If Anthony Yarde begins to ship too much punishment there is going to be an opportunity for the referee or corner to stop this one, but I actually think he will look the fitter man down the stretch. Ultimately I feel he may leave things too late as he looks for the big equaliser punch to find the Knock Out he needs and Kovalev can ride out one or two hairy moments to secure a win on the cards.
The layers are feeling a stoppage for either fighter is the most likely outcome, but I think Kovalev will want to avoid being dragged into a war. If he can win a Decision without needing to invest too much into a scrap, he should be ready to come out again in December to fight Canelo Alvarez.
MY PICKS: Sergey Kovalev to Win by Decision/Technical Decison @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Boxing 2019: 19-36, + 1.87 Units (86 Units Staked, + 2.17% Yield)
For now Kovalev can keep his part of any potential deal alive by winning this fight as I look for a similar performance to the one that took care of Eleider Alvaraz in their rematch. Sergey Kovalev will likely box long and try and showcase his superior talent and he can keep just about enough in the tank to remain out of harms way in the Championship Rounds of this one.
If Anthony Yarde begins to ship too much punishment there is going to be an opportunity for the referee or corner to stop this one, but I actually think he will look the fitter man down the stretch. Ultimately I feel he may leave things too late as he looks for the big equaliser punch to find the Knock Out he needs and Kovalev can ride out one or two hairy moments to secure a win on the cards.
The layers are feeling a stoppage for either fighter is the most likely outcome, but I think Kovalev will want to avoid being dragged into a war. If he can win a Decision without needing to invest too much into a scrap, he should be ready to come out again in December to fight Canelo Alvarez.
MY PICKS: Sergey Kovalev to Win by Decision/Technical Decison @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Boxing 2019: 19-36, + 1.87 Units (86 Units Staked, + 2.17% Yield)
College Football Week 1 Picks 2019 (August 24-September 2)
It has felt like we have been waiting a long time, but just like that the 2019 College Football season is ready to get underway.
This has the makings of an interesting season as most look to see if Trevor Lawrence can continue his path towards almost certainly being the Number 1 Overall Pick in the NFL Draft in 2021 when he is eligible to move up a level. The performances to take Clemson Tigers to another National Championship has certainly whet the appetite of those hoping to be able to be in a position to Draft Lawrence when he declares himself available, but the positive for Tigers fans is they are likely to see their Quarter Back for two more seasons when they are arguably favourites to win the National Championship again.
A lot of eyes will also be on the Alabama Crimson Tide who were embarrassed in the National Championship Game and who have rarely allowed negative results like that to fester. Both Alabama and Clemson are rightly huge favourites to reach the Play Offs again, but the make up of the final four looks open when it comes to deciding the other two places.
Jim Harbaugh at Michigan has led his team to 10 wins in three of the four years he has been Head Coach there, but the four straight losses to Ohio State means they have yet to play for the Big Ten Championship. This season feels like the one in which Michigan have as strong a team as any in Harbaugh's time here, while the Buckeyes certainly don't look as good as in previous years and so the Wolverines may just make the Play Offs for the first time under this Head Coach.
The Oklahoma Sooners have lost Kyler Murray to the NFL, but the arrival of Jalen Hurts, a very experienced Quarter Back who has won the National Title with the Alabama Crimson Tide, should mean the loss of the Number 1 Overall Draft Pick is not as devastating as it usually would be. Defensively I would expect the Sooners to be a lot better than 2018 and they may still be able to edge out a number of good looking rivals in the Big 12 and return to the Play Offs too.
It remains the toughest Conference out there, while the Pac-12 will need to have a team run the table to really offer a chance of earning a Play Off spot. There are a couple of potential Play Off teams in the Pac-12 North, but I think the four Play Off teams will come out of the SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten this season.
So what of Notre Dame who reached the Play Offs last season? The schedule looks like going against them this season and I would think there is more chance of two teams coming out of one of the four Conferences I mentioned above than seeing the Fighting Irish return to the Play Offs barring a special season for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish will get into the Play Offs if they are unbeaten as that would mean leaving with wins from Georgia, Michigan and Stanford and there is a real potential of at least two of those teams being Conference Champions.
In the current format of the Play Offs it is unlikely that a team out of the Power 5 Conferences is going to be given a shot to compete barring something fairly disastrous happening. A one loss team from those Conferences will always edge out an unbeaten team from the American Athletic, Mountain West or MAC Conferences and so the focus has to be on the big name schools playing in the big name Conferences.
My choices for the Play Offs are thus these teams: Clemson Tigers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Oklahoma Sooners and Michigan Wolverines.
These could look foolish by the end of November, but that is why College Football games are played on the field and not on paper. I would be stunned if Clemson and Alabama are not making up half of the four teams in the Play Offs, but I am less confident about Oklahoma and Michigan simply because they have much tougher paths and are less proven than the former two.
I also believe Alabama and Clemson have a touch more room for error with even one loss teams likely to be heading up Committee choices, whereas single losses for Michigan and Oklahoma do leave them vulnerable to being edged out.
Last season was a good one for the College Football Picks with a winning record produced over the 2018 season. I had made some adjustments to the way I was making selections and hopefully that will kick on into the 2019 season which begins this weekend.
Week 1 of the season is spread over a number of days and actually covers two weekends so all of my selections will be placed in this one thread. Like last season, I will break down a few of the selections I have to give you an insight into my reasoning, but the remainder of the Picks will simply be added to the thread.
Here's good luck for the long season ahead and hopefully one that is a profitable again.
Miami Hurricanes v Florida Gators Pick: The 2019 College Football season could not have asked for a much better game to kick off the new year as two in-State rivals meet for the first time since 2013. The Florida Gators finished with a 10-3 record in 2018 and will be looking to show they are the team to beat in the State having crushed Florida State at the end of last season and now facing the other big school from The Sunshine State.
Dan Mullen is entering his second season as the Head Coach of the Gators, but much has changed for the Miami Hurricanes who disappointed with a 7-6 record in 2018. Mark Richt surprisingly quit as Head Coach and abruptly retired after Miami were battered in their Bowl Game by the Wisconsin Badgers, but Manny Diaz was able to return to the school despite signing to take over as the Head Coach at Temple.
Diaz has history with the players having been the Defensive Co-Ordinator for the last three years and the hope for the Hurricanes is that this enables them to have a smooth transition from the Richt era to the Diaz one. He does have 12 returning starters to call upon with 6 on both sides of the ball, but the Hurricanes will be turning the Offense over to Jarren Williams at Quarter Back who has surprisingly won the job ahead of Tate Martell.
Williams has the opportunity to throw to some talented Wide Receivers, but the challenge for the Quarter Back may come in operating behind an inexperienced Offensive Line. It may seen an increase in the number of Sacks being taken as an inexperienced Quarter Back also looks to cut his teeth at this level, while Miami have lost their stand out Running Back from 2018 (Travis Homer was Drafted by Seattle of the NFL) which may mean more pressure on the Quarter Back if the Hurricanes do have some early issues trying to run the ball.
The Miami Offensive Line is certainly going to be tested by the Gators Defensive unit which is bringing back 8 starters from 2018. This is a Florida team who are experienced on that side of the ball and who made large improvements in 2018 from 2017 and I do think they are going to give the Hurricanes plenty to think about considering the new look of the Offensive Line Miami will be sending out onto the field.
Florida had 14 more Sacks in 2018 compared with 2017 and they should also be improved when it comes to stopping the run having allowed 4.3 yards per carry last season. The Gators will certainly believe they can force Williams to beat them through the air, but that is going to be a big test for the young Quarter Back as Florida bring back all of their Defensive Backs from 2018 that was amongst the best in the nation.
Dan Mullen will know his team are only bringing back 5 starters on the Offensive side of the ball, but importantly one of those is Feleipe Franks who had almost 2500 passing yards and 24 Touchdown passes last year with just 6 Interceptions thrown. The new Head Coach helped Florida score almost 13 points per game more in 2018 compared with 2017 and the Gators managed at least 35 points in their last four games which is a big reason they come into 2019 as the Number 8 Ranked team in College Football.
Like Miami, Florida are rebuilding the Offensive Line but they have a decent Running Back committee which should help Franks at Quarter Back. Running the ball against the Hurricanes Defensive Line is going to be very difficult though and Franks will have to be ware of the pressure that the Hurricanes generate on them with the pass rush that produced 40 Sacks last season.
The Hurricanes will be used to the Manny Diaz voice which should aid their Defensive development, but the Corner Backs and Safeties are perhaps going to have the sharpest of the learning curves. Feleipe Franks will be looking to take advantage, especially with his Receiving corps coming back largely intact and I think that is going to help Florida earn the edge in this one.
Both teams will believe their Defensive units can get the better of the day, but Franks being the more experienced Quarter Back compared with Jerron Williams will be important to separate these teams. The Hurricanes are 1-8 against the spread in their last nine neutral site games and they were blown out by a team from the SEC in their opener in 2018.
Miami are also 1-4 against the spread over the last three seasons when set as the underdog and I do think there are more question marks about their team, especially going into Week 1. Jimmy Johnson was able to speak with the coaching staff at Miami and that will be a boost for the team, but I am not sure it will be enough here and I do like the Gators to cover even though the spread has moved over the key number 7.
I will not be surprised if Florida take a step back from 2018 and fail to reach double digits in terms of wins over the coming months, but they come in with momentum and can produce a big win to open the 2019 season. Covering won't be easy, but I like the Gators and I will look for them to just about get over the line with a couple of Interceptions helping them turn the screw.
Arizona Wildcats @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Pick: Kevin Sumlin was let go by the Texas A&M Aggies as Head Coach after failing to top 8 wins in a single season for four consecutive years. He was quickly appointed Head Coach of the Arizona Wildcats, but injuries did not help in 2018 as his team finished 5-7 and were beaten by a heartbreaking single point against rivals Arizona State to prevent them from making a Bowl Game last year.
There are 15 returning starters for the Wildcats in 2019 and the most important is going to be Khalil Tate who had a very difficult season in 2018. Big things were expected of the Quarter Back, but an ankle injury limited his effectiveness as a dual-threat which was very important to him the season before.
Now Tate is coming in looking much healthier and the expectation is that Arizona are going to be closer to the 41 points per game they averaged in 2017 rather than the 31 points per game of 2018. Khalil Tate will be playing behind a much stronger looking Offensive Line too which should see his running numbers improve significantly and this is a team that is expected to have a much improved record from last season.
We will get to learn plenty about Tate and the Wildcats Offensively in this opening game, although they will have to make sure they don't enjoy the occasion prior to the game being in 'Paradise'. There is also the matter of facing up to the Hawaii Defensive unit which is bringing back 9 starters from last season and who are expecting to have their best points per game from a Defensive standpoint since 2014.
The Rainbow Warriors do play in the Mountain West Conference so this is likely a step up in class compared to what they will face for much of the season, but Hawaii will believe their Defense does give them a chance to be competitive.
Hawaii are a team who will have plenty of backers considering they are also bringing back 9 starters on the Offensive side of the ball and plenty are high on Cole McDonald at Quarter Back. Last season the Rainbow Warriors finished with an 8-6 record which is the first winning record under Head Coach Nick Rolovich and this is a team that has the experience to build on the 2018 season as they look to reach back to back Bowl Games for the first time in over ten years.
McDonald and the rest of the Offense are going to have a difficult challenge in front of them as they face a Defensive unit that is bringing back 8 starters from last season. If it wasn't for injuries, Arizona might have had their best record on that side of the ball since the early days of the Rich Rodriguez era, but they can certainly do that with better health this season.
The key to the outcome of this game could be on that side of the ball- I expect Khalil Tate to help Arizona put up their points, but the battle between Cole McDonald and the Arizona Secondary which gave up 27 passing Touchdowns in 2018 is the one that will determine the spread.
My feeling is that Hawaii will be able to score enough points to make the start they are being given appealing enough to get behind. The Rainbow Warriors have not been a great home underdog to back, but Kevin Sumlin's teams have not always been the most effective in the road favourite spot either.
However the Rainbow Warriors have covered the spread in their last six home games against Pac-12 teams. With the amount of points being given to Hawaii I do think the home team can be backed in this spot on the opening weekend of the season. Hawaii have not exactly been a team that have impressed against the spread, but they can be a decent team when it comes to these non-Conference games on the schedule so taking the points looks the play I can get behind.
Texas State Bobcats @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: Jimbo Fisher arrived with a big reputation at College Station and he led the Texas A&M Aggies to nine wins for the first time since 2013. The big issue for the Aggies is they play in the same Division as the Alabama Crimson Tide, the SEC West being loaded with some of the best teams in College Football but having 11 returning starters on both sides of the ball means they will be chasing double digits in terms of wins for the first time since going 11-2 in Kevin Sumlin's first season as Head Coach.
They are big favourites to get the 2019 season off to a winning start when they host the Texas State Bobcats who are looking like one of the weaker teams in the Sun Belt Conference. The Bobcats do have 19 starters back which is usually a very positive sign for a team who ended with a 3-9 record in 2018, but a new Head Coach is coming in which means new ideas and players who don't fit Jake Spavital's system are likely to be replaced by younger, inexperienced players who do.
Texas State have not won more than three games in a single season in any of the last four years so there is some real work for Spavital to do. This is also a learning curve for the new Head Coach who has never been in this position before and heading to College Station to get the 2019 season underway is a difficult position to be in.
Scoring points has been a problem for the Bobcats in recent years and Spavital's experiences as an Offensive mind could be a benefit for Texas State, but it is unlikely to be seen here. Even though they are facing an Aggies team that are only bringing back 4 starters on the Defensive side of the ball, Texas A&M have indicated they believe they are better than last year when they made a considerable improvement on that side of the ball despite having a new Defensive Co-Ordinator calling the plays.
This is a big spread though when you think the Bobcats have been pretty sound Defensively for the most part even though they have had poor records. This year could be a little different if the previous starters are not completely on board with the new directions that Coaches want the team to go in and that is where the Aggies have to show off some of their Offensive power.
7 starters are coming back on the Offensive side of the ball and that includes the starting Quarter Back from 2018, Kellen Mond Jr, while the majority of the Receiving corps also returns intact. Like many of the big schools, the Aggies have lost their starting Running Back and Tight End from the 2018 season to the NFL, but Jimbo Fisher is happy with the way his Offensive unit is put together and one that is playing behind a strong Line.
The Aggies scored plenty of points in their non-Conference games last season and Jimbo Fisher has been someone who has gotten his teams to play well against the spread in those games. In Week 2 the Aggies are facing the Clemson Tigers which could be a distraction, but I think most players will have been looking forward to Week 1 and it should mean a full effort is put into this one.
There is the chance that Fisher decides to make changes to his team in the second half to give others some playing time and that does leave Texas A&M open for a backdoor cover. The Aggies have been decent in recent home games and they have covered in their last eight non-Conference games and they are 5-1 against the spread in the last six as a home favourite.
Texas State have lost all five previous games against teams from the SEC and they were blown out in their last road game agains a school from that Conference. I am looking for Texas A&M to find a way to keep their foot on the peddle and produce a big win ahead of the revenge game against Clemson coming up in Week 2.
Kent State Golden Flashes @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: Herm Edwards was taking on just his third ever Head Coach role and the first in College Football as he was given the job at the Arizona State Sun Devils. A 7-6 record in 2017 was not good enough for Todd Graham as Head Coach, but Edwards will have been pleased with that record in 2018 when so many had tipped Arizona State to struggle under his watch in the first season.
Expectations will have increased substantially in 2019 after the way things turned out for the Sun Devils in 2018 and that despite coming in off a Bowl defeat to the Fresno State Bulldogs. Arizona State are bringing back 15 starters from last season which are split as evenly as possible with 8 on the Offensive side of the ball and 7 on the Defensive side of the ball.
There are a couple of significant changes that Edwards is going to have to deal with and that is a long-time starting Quarter Back and the Number 1 Wide Receiver both leaving the school. Both Manny Wilkins and N'Keal Harry are now playing in the NFL with the latter being a rare First Round Receiving selection for the New England Patriots, but Arizona State fans are still full of belief that their team will not drop off significantly from an Offensive point of view especially in the second year of the Herm Edwards era.
Arizona State will certainly have a very good chance of getting their Offensive rhythm going in this opening game when they face a Kent State Defensive unit that has allowed at least 35 points per game in back to back seasons. The Golden Flashes have only got 6 starters back on the Defensive side of the ball and even though there is expected to be some improvement over the course of 2019, I do think this is the kind of game that will be difficult to really work out how much improvement can be made.
Kent State are returning 9 Offensive starters and there is a feeling that this team can produce their most points per game since 2012 in the second year under Sean Lewis as Head Coach. As I said on the Defensive side of the ball, I don't think we are going to see how much of an improvement the Kent State Offense can make in this Week 1 game as they face a tough Arizona State Defense that is much more experienced than a year ago.
They only gave up 25.5 points per game in 2018 and Arizona State are looking to make an improvement in that number by the end of the season which could begin by showing off their talents in this game. The Sun Devils look very capable of opening the season with a couple of strong wins at home before the big road game at the Michigan State Spartans, and they were 2-1 against the spread in their three games as a home favourite last season.
The Sun Devils have won their last 19 home openers by an average of 32 points per game while Kent State have lost their last 11 road openers by the same margin. Last season the Golden Flashes did push the Illinois Fighting Illini in a road game to open the campaign, but Arizona State look much stronger than the Illinois team of 2018 and even the improvements that Kent State make are unlikely to be seen in a game like this one.
I have to respect Kent State for being a competitive non-Conference opponent last season for the likes of Illinois and Mississippi, but they were blown out at Penn State. My feeling is that the Arizona State Sun Devils are going to be improved again in 2019 compared with the 2018 edition even with the losses of Wilkins and Harry in mind, and I will look for Herm Edwards to guide them to a big win in Week 1.
Utah Utes @ BYU Cougars Pick: The Holy War opening up the 2019 season is a huge game for both the BYU Cougars and the Utah Utes who both have some big ambitions for the season. Injuries hurt the Utes throughout 2018, but they still managed to reach the Pac-12 Championship Game, although they were beaten in that game and also the Bowl Game which saw them finish up with a 9-5 record.
This season they go into the 2019 campaign as many experts picks as the team to beat in the Pac-12 and possibly even a Play Off contender if the Utes can get on a roll. Opening up with a win over a big rival will be a huge boost for Utah who have 14 returning starters with 7 on both sides of the ball.
Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss, the starting Quarter Back and Running Back from 2018, both missed a number of games through injuries but both are back in 2019 to give Utah the chance to be a powerful Offensive team. There is a real chance that Utah might have their best Offensive team for over a decade and the returning Offensive Co-Ordinator Andy Ludwig has only increased the expectations around a team who have had just one double digit winning season in the last eight, but who are looking to reach that level at the very least.
We are going to be learning plenty about Utah from the off as they are facing a BYU Cougars Defensive unit that has 8 returning starters from last season and this is a school that always produces strong Defenses. The Cougars should be tough to run against which could limit the impact Zack Moss can have, while they will be looking to put Quarter Back Huntley under pressure from their pass rush and dare him to throw into a Secondary that looks like it could improve on the 13 Touchdown passes and 9 Interceptions they picked up a year ago.
The Cougars finished 7-6 last season to bounce back from a four win 2017 but they have now gone seven years without a double digit winning season. A bigger concern for the fans turning up for this home game has to be the eight straight losses they have taken against their rivals Utah so there are two major ambitions for the season- one is to try and get back to ten wins, the other will be beating Utah and those may be linked with the Week 1 game offering the chance to build as much momentum as it would for Utah if they are able to win here.
BYU have 9 returning starters on the Offensive unit which moved from 17 points per game in 2017 to 27 points per game in 2018. The expected step up thanks to the experiences of 2018 will help the Cougars produce some strong Offensive numbers this season, but it might not be in this game against a Utah Defense which could be amongst the very best in College Football.
It looks like it is going to be very difficult to move the ball on the Utah Utes and even the likely improvement the Cougars are going to make may not be enough to break through them. The feeling is that this is going to be a decent Defensive game, but Utah look to have the superior Offensive unit and that may just show up on the day and give them the edge.
The Cougars are just 0-3-1 against the spread in their four games as the home underdog with Kalani Sitake as Head Coach. Three of the last five wins for Utah in this Holy War series have come by at least 7 point margins so this spread is just about within my comfort zone to want to back the leading contender in the Pac-12 to put a good, solid win on the board in Week 1.
I have no doubt this will be a good, close game, but Utah should have the edge overall and I expect that to show up on the scoreboard when double zeroes clock down at the end of the Fourth Quarter.
MY PICKS: Florida Gators - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + 11 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Texas A&M Aggies - 32.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Arizona State Sun Devils - 24 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Utah Utes - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Season 2018: + 15.82 Units (118 Units Staked, + 13.41% Yield)
This has the makings of an interesting season as most look to see if Trevor Lawrence can continue his path towards almost certainly being the Number 1 Overall Pick in the NFL Draft in 2021 when he is eligible to move up a level. The performances to take Clemson Tigers to another National Championship has certainly whet the appetite of those hoping to be able to be in a position to Draft Lawrence when he declares himself available, but the positive for Tigers fans is they are likely to see their Quarter Back for two more seasons when they are arguably favourites to win the National Championship again.
A lot of eyes will also be on the Alabama Crimson Tide who were embarrassed in the National Championship Game and who have rarely allowed negative results like that to fester. Both Alabama and Clemson are rightly huge favourites to reach the Play Offs again, but the make up of the final four looks open when it comes to deciding the other two places.
Jim Harbaugh at Michigan has led his team to 10 wins in three of the four years he has been Head Coach there, but the four straight losses to Ohio State means they have yet to play for the Big Ten Championship. This season feels like the one in which Michigan have as strong a team as any in Harbaugh's time here, while the Buckeyes certainly don't look as good as in previous years and so the Wolverines may just make the Play Offs for the first time under this Head Coach.
The Oklahoma Sooners have lost Kyler Murray to the NFL, but the arrival of Jalen Hurts, a very experienced Quarter Back who has won the National Title with the Alabama Crimson Tide, should mean the loss of the Number 1 Overall Draft Pick is not as devastating as it usually would be. Defensively I would expect the Sooners to be a lot better than 2018 and they may still be able to edge out a number of good looking rivals in the Big 12 and return to the Play Offs too.
It remains the toughest Conference out there, while the Pac-12 will need to have a team run the table to really offer a chance of earning a Play Off spot. There are a couple of potential Play Off teams in the Pac-12 North, but I think the four Play Off teams will come out of the SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten this season.
So what of Notre Dame who reached the Play Offs last season? The schedule looks like going against them this season and I would think there is more chance of two teams coming out of one of the four Conferences I mentioned above than seeing the Fighting Irish return to the Play Offs barring a special season for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish will get into the Play Offs if they are unbeaten as that would mean leaving with wins from Georgia, Michigan and Stanford and there is a real potential of at least two of those teams being Conference Champions.
In the current format of the Play Offs it is unlikely that a team out of the Power 5 Conferences is going to be given a shot to compete barring something fairly disastrous happening. A one loss team from those Conferences will always edge out an unbeaten team from the American Athletic, Mountain West or MAC Conferences and so the focus has to be on the big name schools playing in the big name Conferences.
My choices for the Play Offs are thus these teams: Clemson Tigers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Oklahoma Sooners and Michigan Wolverines.
These could look foolish by the end of November, but that is why College Football games are played on the field and not on paper. I would be stunned if Clemson and Alabama are not making up half of the four teams in the Play Offs, but I am less confident about Oklahoma and Michigan simply because they have much tougher paths and are less proven than the former two.
I also believe Alabama and Clemson have a touch more room for error with even one loss teams likely to be heading up Committee choices, whereas single losses for Michigan and Oklahoma do leave them vulnerable to being edged out.
Last season was a good one for the College Football Picks with a winning record produced over the 2018 season. I had made some adjustments to the way I was making selections and hopefully that will kick on into the 2019 season which begins this weekend.
Week 1 of the season is spread over a number of days and actually covers two weekends so all of my selections will be placed in this one thread. Like last season, I will break down a few of the selections I have to give you an insight into my reasoning, but the remainder of the Picks will simply be added to the thread.
Here's good luck for the long season ahead and hopefully one that is a profitable again.
Miami Hurricanes v Florida Gators Pick: The 2019 College Football season could not have asked for a much better game to kick off the new year as two in-State rivals meet for the first time since 2013. The Florida Gators finished with a 10-3 record in 2018 and will be looking to show they are the team to beat in the State having crushed Florida State at the end of last season and now facing the other big school from The Sunshine State.
Dan Mullen is entering his second season as the Head Coach of the Gators, but much has changed for the Miami Hurricanes who disappointed with a 7-6 record in 2018. Mark Richt surprisingly quit as Head Coach and abruptly retired after Miami were battered in their Bowl Game by the Wisconsin Badgers, but Manny Diaz was able to return to the school despite signing to take over as the Head Coach at Temple.
Diaz has history with the players having been the Defensive Co-Ordinator for the last three years and the hope for the Hurricanes is that this enables them to have a smooth transition from the Richt era to the Diaz one. He does have 12 returning starters to call upon with 6 on both sides of the ball, but the Hurricanes will be turning the Offense over to Jarren Williams at Quarter Back who has surprisingly won the job ahead of Tate Martell.
Williams has the opportunity to throw to some talented Wide Receivers, but the challenge for the Quarter Back may come in operating behind an inexperienced Offensive Line. It may seen an increase in the number of Sacks being taken as an inexperienced Quarter Back also looks to cut his teeth at this level, while Miami have lost their stand out Running Back from 2018 (Travis Homer was Drafted by Seattle of the NFL) which may mean more pressure on the Quarter Back if the Hurricanes do have some early issues trying to run the ball.
The Miami Offensive Line is certainly going to be tested by the Gators Defensive unit which is bringing back 8 starters from 2018. This is a Florida team who are experienced on that side of the ball and who made large improvements in 2018 from 2017 and I do think they are going to give the Hurricanes plenty to think about considering the new look of the Offensive Line Miami will be sending out onto the field.
Florida had 14 more Sacks in 2018 compared with 2017 and they should also be improved when it comes to stopping the run having allowed 4.3 yards per carry last season. The Gators will certainly believe they can force Williams to beat them through the air, but that is going to be a big test for the young Quarter Back as Florida bring back all of their Defensive Backs from 2018 that was amongst the best in the nation.
Dan Mullen will know his team are only bringing back 5 starters on the Offensive side of the ball, but importantly one of those is Feleipe Franks who had almost 2500 passing yards and 24 Touchdown passes last year with just 6 Interceptions thrown. The new Head Coach helped Florida score almost 13 points per game more in 2018 compared with 2017 and the Gators managed at least 35 points in their last four games which is a big reason they come into 2019 as the Number 8 Ranked team in College Football.
Like Miami, Florida are rebuilding the Offensive Line but they have a decent Running Back committee which should help Franks at Quarter Back. Running the ball against the Hurricanes Defensive Line is going to be very difficult though and Franks will have to be ware of the pressure that the Hurricanes generate on them with the pass rush that produced 40 Sacks last season.
The Hurricanes will be used to the Manny Diaz voice which should aid their Defensive development, but the Corner Backs and Safeties are perhaps going to have the sharpest of the learning curves. Feleipe Franks will be looking to take advantage, especially with his Receiving corps coming back largely intact and I think that is going to help Florida earn the edge in this one.
Both teams will believe their Defensive units can get the better of the day, but Franks being the more experienced Quarter Back compared with Jerron Williams will be important to separate these teams. The Hurricanes are 1-8 against the spread in their last nine neutral site games and they were blown out by a team from the SEC in their opener in 2018.
Miami are also 1-4 against the spread over the last three seasons when set as the underdog and I do think there are more question marks about their team, especially going into Week 1. Jimmy Johnson was able to speak with the coaching staff at Miami and that will be a boost for the team, but I am not sure it will be enough here and I do like the Gators to cover even though the spread has moved over the key number 7.
I will not be surprised if Florida take a step back from 2018 and fail to reach double digits in terms of wins over the coming months, but they come in with momentum and can produce a big win to open the 2019 season. Covering won't be easy, but I like the Gators and I will look for them to just about get over the line with a couple of Interceptions helping them turn the screw.
Arizona Wildcats @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Pick: Kevin Sumlin was let go by the Texas A&M Aggies as Head Coach after failing to top 8 wins in a single season for four consecutive years. He was quickly appointed Head Coach of the Arizona Wildcats, but injuries did not help in 2018 as his team finished 5-7 and were beaten by a heartbreaking single point against rivals Arizona State to prevent them from making a Bowl Game last year.
There are 15 returning starters for the Wildcats in 2019 and the most important is going to be Khalil Tate who had a very difficult season in 2018. Big things were expected of the Quarter Back, but an ankle injury limited his effectiveness as a dual-threat which was very important to him the season before.
Now Tate is coming in looking much healthier and the expectation is that Arizona are going to be closer to the 41 points per game they averaged in 2017 rather than the 31 points per game of 2018. Khalil Tate will be playing behind a much stronger looking Offensive Line too which should see his running numbers improve significantly and this is a team that is expected to have a much improved record from last season.
We will get to learn plenty about Tate and the Wildcats Offensively in this opening game, although they will have to make sure they don't enjoy the occasion prior to the game being in 'Paradise'. There is also the matter of facing up to the Hawaii Defensive unit which is bringing back 9 starters from last season and who are expecting to have their best points per game from a Defensive standpoint since 2014.
The Rainbow Warriors do play in the Mountain West Conference so this is likely a step up in class compared to what they will face for much of the season, but Hawaii will believe their Defense does give them a chance to be competitive.
Hawaii are a team who will have plenty of backers considering they are also bringing back 9 starters on the Offensive side of the ball and plenty are high on Cole McDonald at Quarter Back. Last season the Rainbow Warriors finished with an 8-6 record which is the first winning record under Head Coach Nick Rolovich and this is a team that has the experience to build on the 2018 season as they look to reach back to back Bowl Games for the first time in over ten years.
McDonald and the rest of the Offense are going to have a difficult challenge in front of them as they face a Defensive unit that is bringing back 8 starters from last season. If it wasn't for injuries, Arizona might have had their best record on that side of the ball since the early days of the Rich Rodriguez era, but they can certainly do that with better health this season.
The key to the outcome of this game could be on that side of the ball- I expect Khalil Tate to help Arizona put up their points, but the battle between Cole McDonald and the Arizona Secondary which gave up 27 passing Touchdowns in 2018 is the one that will determine the spread.
My feeling is that Hawaii will be able to score enough points to make the start they are being given appealing enough to get behind. The Rainbow Warriors have not been a great home underdog to back, but Kevin Sumlin's teams have not always been the most effective in the road favourite spot either.
However the Rainbow Warriors have covered the spread in their last six home games against Pac-12 teams. With the amount of points being given to Hawaii I do think the home team can be backed in this spot on the opening weekend of the season. Hawaii have not exactly been a team that have impressed against the spread, but they can be a decent team when it comes to these non-Conference games on the schedule so taking the points looks the play I can get behind.
Texas State Bobcats @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: Jimbo Fisher arrived with a big reputation at College Station and he led the Texas A&M Aggies to nine wins for the first time since 2013. The big issue for the Aggies is they play in the same Division as the Alabama Crimson Tide, the SEC West being loaded with some of the best teams in College Football but having 11 returning starters on both sides of the ball means they will be chasing double digits in terms of wins for the first time since going 11-2 in Kevin Sumlin's first season as Head Coach.
They are big favourites to get the 2019 season off to a winning start when they host the Texas State Bobcats who are looking like one of the weaker teams in the Sun Belt Conference. The Bobcats do have 19 starters back which is usually a very positive sign for a team who ended with a 3-9 record in 2018, but a new Head Coach is coming in which means new ideas and players who don't fit Jake Spavital's system are likely to be replaced by younger, inexperienced players who do.
Texas State have not won more than three games in a single season in any of the last four years so there is some real work for Spavital to do. This is also a learning curve for the new Head Coach who has never been in this position before and heading to College Station to get the 2019 season underway is a difficult position to be in.
Scoring points has been a problem for the Bobcats in recent years and Spavital's experiences as an Offensive mind could be a benefit for Texas State, but it is unlikely to be seen here. Even though they are facing an Aggies team that are only bringing back 4 starters on the Defensive side of the ball, Texas A&M have indicated they believe they are better than last year when they made a considerable improvement on that side of the ball despite having a new Defensive Co-Ordinator calling the plays.
This is a big spread though when you think the Bobcats have been pretty sound Defensively for the most part even though they have had poor records. This year could be a little different if the previous starters are not completely on board with the new directions that Coaches want the team to go in and that is where the Aggies have to show off some of their Offensive power.
7 starters are coming back on the Offensive side of the ball and that includes the starting Quarter Back from 2018, Kellen Mond Jr, while the majority of the Receiving corps also returns intact. Like many of the big schools, the Aggies have lost their starting Running Back and Tight End from the 2018 season to the NFL, but Jimbo Fisher is happy with the way his Offensive unit is put together and one that is playing behind a strong Line.
The Aggies scored plenty of points in their non-Conference games last season and Jimbo Fisher has been someone who has gotten his teams to play well against the spread in those games. In Week 2 the Aggies are facing the Clemson Tigers which could be a distraction, but I think most players will have been looking forward to Week 1 and it should mean a full effort is put into this one.
There is the chance that Fisher decides to make changes to his team in the second half to give others some playing time and that does leave Texas A&M open for a backdoor cover. The Aggies have been decent in recent home games and they have covered in their last eight non-Conference games and they are 5-1 against the spread in the last six as a home favourite.
Texas State have lost all five previous games against teams from the SEC and they were blown out in their last road game agains a school from that Conference. I am looking for Texas A&M to find a way to keep their foot on the peddle and produce a big win ahead of the revenge game against Clemson coming up in Week 2.
Kent State Golden Flashes @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: Herm Edwards was taking on just his third ever Head Coach role and the first in College Football as he was given the job at the Arizona State Sun Devils. A 7-6 record in 2017 was not good enough for Todd Graham as Head Coach, but Edwards will have been pleased with that record in 2018 when so many had tipped Arizona State to struggle under his watch in the first season.
Expectations will have increased substantially in 2019 after the way things turned out for the Sun Devils in 2018 and that despite coming in off a Bowl defeat to the Fresno State Bulldogs. Arizona State are bringing back 15 starters from last season which are split as evenly as possible with 8 on the Offensive side of the ball and 7 on the Defensive side of the ball.
There are a couple of significant changes that Edwards is going to have to deal with and that is a long-time starting Quarter Back and the Number 1 Wide Receiver both leaving the school. Both Manny Wilkins and N'Keal Harry are now playing in the NFL with the latter being a rare First Round Receiving selection for the New England Patriots, but Arizona State fans are still full of belief that their team will not drop off significantly from an Offensive point of view especially in the second year of the Herm Edwards era.
Arizona State will certainly have a very good chance of getting their Offensive rhythm going in this opening game when they face a Kent State Defensive unit that has allowed at least 35 points per game in back to back seasons. The Golden Flashes have only got 6 starters back on the Defensive side of the ball and even though there is expected to be some improvement over the course of 2019, I do think this is the kind of game that will be difficult to really work out how much improvement can be made.
Kent State are returning 9 Offensive starters and there is a feeling that this team can produce their most points per game since 2012 in the second year under Sean Lewis as Head Coach. As I said on the Defensive side of the ball, I don't think we are going to see how much of an improvement the Kent State Offense can make in this Week 1 game as they face a tough Arizona State Defense that is much more experienced than a year ago.
They only gave up 25.5 points per game in 2018 and Arizona State are looking to make an improvement in that number by the end of the season which could begin by showing off their talents in this game. The Sun Devils look very capable of opening the season with a couple of strong wins at home before the big road game at the Michigan State Spartans, and they were 2-1 against the spread in their three games as a home favourite last season.
The Sun Devils have won their last 19 home openers by an average of 32 points per game while Kent State have lost their last 11 road openers by the same margin. Last season the Golden Flashes did push the Illinois Fighting Illini in a road game to open the campaign, but Arizona State look much stronger than the Illinois team of 2018 and even the improvements that Kent State make are unlikely to be seen in a game like this one.
I have to respect Kent State for being a competitive non-Conference opponent last season for the likes of Illinois and Mississippi, but they were blown out at Penn State. My feeling is that the Arizona State Sun Devils are going to be improved again in 2019 compared with the 2018 edition even with the losses of Wilkins and Harry in mind, and I will look for Herm Edwards to guide them to a big win in Week 1.
Utah Utes @ BYU Cougars Pick: The Holy War opening up the 2019 season is a huge game for both the BYU Cougars and the Utah Utes who both have some big ambitions for the season. Injuries hurt the Utes throughout 2018, but they still managed to reach the Pac-12 Championship Game, although they were beaten in that game and also the Bowl Game which saw them finish up with a 9-5 record.
This season they go into the 2019 campaign as many experts picks as the team to beat in the Pac-12 and possibly even a Play Off contender if the Utes can get on a roll. Opening up with a win over a big rival will be a huge boost for Utah who have 14 returning starters with 7 on both sides of the ball.
Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss, the starting Quarter Back and Running Back from 2018, both missed a number of games through injuries but both are back in 2019 to give Utah the chance to be a powerful Offensive team. There is a real chance that Utah might have their best Offensive team for over a decade and the returning Offensive Co-Ordinator Andy Ludwig has only increased the expectations around a team who have had just one double digit winning season in the last eight, but who are looking to reach that level at the very least.
We are going to be learning plenty about Utah from the off as they are facing a BYU Cougars Defensive unit that has 8 returning starters from last season and this is a school that always produces strong Defenses. The Cougars should be tough to run against which could limit the impact Zack Moss can have, while they will be looking to put Quarter Back Huntley under pressure from their pass rush and dare him to throw into a Secondary that looks like it could improve on the 13 Touchdown passes and 9 Interceptions they picked up a year ago.
The Cougars finished 7-6 last season to bounce back from a four win 2017 but they have now gone seven years without a double digit winning season. A bigger concern for the fans turning up for this home game has to be the eight straight losses they have taken against their rivals Utah so there are two major ambitions for the season- one is to try and get back to ten wins, the other will be beating Utah and those may be linked with the Week 1 game offering the chance to build as much momentum as it would for Utah if they are able to win here.
BYU have 9 returning starters on the Offensive unit which moved from 17 points per game in 2017 to 27 points per game in 2018. The expected step up thanks to the experiences of 2018 will help the Cougars produce some strong Offensive numbers this season, but it might not be in this game against a Utah Defense which could be amongst the very best in College Football.
It looks like it is going to be very difficult to move the ball on the Utah Utes and even the likely improvement the Cougars are going to make may not be enough to break through them. The feeling is that this is going to be a decent Defensive game, but Utah look to have the superior Offensive unit and that may just show up on the day and give them the edge.
The Cougars are just 0-3-1 against the spread in their four games as the home underdog with Kalani Sitake as Head Coach. Three of the last five wins for Utah in this Holy War series have come by at least 7 point margins so this spread is just about within my comfort zone to want to back the leading contender in the Pac-12 to put a good, solid win on the board in Week 1.
I have no doubt this will be a good, close game, but Utah should have the edge overall and I expect that to show up on the scoreboard when double zeroes clock down at the end of the Fourth Quarter.
MY PICKS: Florida Gators - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + 11 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Texas A&M Aggies - 32.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Arizona State Sun Devils - 24 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Utah Utes - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Season 2018: + 15.82 Units (118 Units Staked, + 13.41% Yield)
Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2019 (August 23-25)
Two weeks of Premier League Football are in the books and I have to say I am feeling better about the coming season from a Manchester United perspective than I might have been after hosting Chelsea and visiting Wolves.
Some have suggested it is a sign of standards slipping that a point at Wolves is seen as a positive result, but you have to know almost nothing about football to fail to recognise the importance of the outcome of the trip to Molineux. Manchester United are a work in progress and it isn't that long ago that people were laughing at Jurgen Klopp for leading celebrations after a home draw with West Brom when he was rebuilding a squad and a culture at Anfield.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will know it is going to take some small steps to help recover United to a position they once dominated in English Football, and you can read more of my thoughts about the club here.
Those were written before the game against Wolves was played.
Last week was a really irritating one for the Weekend Football Picks which returned a loss. However I was a Paul Pogba penalty away from actually moving the season totals back into a positive number and I don't think I was wrong in backing Manchester City to beat Tottenham Hotspur considering the stats on the day.
A bit of bad luck is par for the course over a long season, but the hope is that I can at least point to that rather than poor selections if I don't turn this month around.
The Premier League is back underway on Friday this week with another live game that evening and all ten games will be played by Sunday evening.
Aston Villa v Everton Pick: There is little doubt that Aston Villa need to improve defensively if they are going to survive in the Premier League in their return to the top flight, but there have been enough positives to take from their opening two fixtures to believe they can do that.
Twelve months ago Fulham came into the Premier League after making a huge investment in the summer and Aston Villa have done something similar. However I do think Dean Smith will be able to find a way to integrate the players he has purchased compared with Fulham who were looking to make wholesale changes to their starting eleven and there have been some solid play in the final third that have seen Aston Villa creating chances.
Defensively there are gaps that need to be filled, but outside of a really poor opening fifteen minutes last weekend Aston Villa did show enough to believe they will earn plenty of points if they maintain the standards set. On another day Aston Villa would not have lost that game and I think they would be a much shorter price than they are heading into this third game of the League season.
Instead Everton are a clear favourite to win at Villa Park and this is a club that has managed to earn the three points in 3 of their last 4 visits to this ground. The Toffees have made a good start to the season with 4 points earned against Crystal Palace and Watford, but Everton were a touch fortunate last week and the potential absence of Lucas Digne is a blow.
They have been a tough team to break down and score goals against in the final weeks of last season and Everton have continued that to open this one, but both Crystal Palace and Watford have had chances. Aston Villa at home look like a team that will test Everton too and I do think there may be a lack of goals that holds Everton back even with the arrival of talented youngster Moise Kean.
Everton have only won 8 of their last 39 away Premier League games since August 2017 and last season they scored 24 goals in 19 away League games. They have already been held to a goalless draw by Crystal Palace earlier this month and I have to be wary of backing a favourite that has struggled in the final third as much as Everton have done.
Aston Villa look like a team that will create chances at home and I think they can snap what has been a poor recent record against Everton. If the home team score once I believe that will put them in a good position to avoid a defeat, even though The Villains have been poor from a defensive standpoint to open the season.
I do like the balance Marco Silva has found in his Everton team in recent months, but they are a team that are more vulnerable away from home. Aston Villa can underline that by earning at least a point in this one and I will back the home team with a start on the Asian Handicap.
Norwich City v Chelsea Pick: The opening Premier League game on Saturday comes from Carrow Road as the television cameras visit this ground as a top flight one for the first time in three years. Norwich City are coming into this weekend off a very good 3-1 win over Newcastle United last time out, while Chelsea are still searching for their first win under Frank Lampard.
Even though that is the case, Chelsea are the favourites to win this one heading into this weekend, although the price has just drifted slightly.
The layers are perhaps right in having Chelsea in that position when you think this is a team that did finish in the top four last season and have not been as bad as the results may indicate. If they can find some clinical finishing in the final third, Chelsea won't have too many issues, but the feeling is that it could be a season long problem for Frank Lampard to address.
Still, Chelsea have created some good chances and much is going to depend on their mood in any given game as to how they will perform. However, at the moment it is hard to really expect Chelsea to win comfortably and they are going into a tough ground where Norwich City have been very good over the last twelve months.
Last season Norwich City scored plenty of goals at home in the Championship, but the concern remains that they conceded too many too. Even an average Newcastle United scored here last week and I would be surprised if the home team are able to contain Chelsea with the way they approach their fixtures and the tactics used by Daniel Farke.
It will give Norwich City a chance, even against the better teams in the League, and I think this is a confident team that can pose Chelsea plenty of questions in the second live game of the weekend. Last weekend I selected Leicester City with the start at Stamford Bridge and this weekend I do think Norwich City can be backed having caused problems for Liverpool and Newcastle United already.
I have little doubt Chelsea will cause problems too, but Norwich City can upset them and keep the pressure on Frank Lampard. Both teams scoring won't be a big surprise and I would be disappointed if Norwich City are blown away considering their own levels to open up this month.
Backing the home team on the Asian Handicap looks the right play here.
Brighton v Southampton Pick: It can be very difficult to ignore results and change the way you think about a team and that will be the case for those who have been surprised by the opening results Brighton and Southampton have earned.
The Seagulls are under new guidance this season and Graham Potter has got the squad playing some good football in the first two weeks of the new campaign. They were very unfortunate to not beat West Ham United here last weekend, and Brighton have been pretty sound defensively while creating a fair few chances.
On the other hand Southampton have lost twice, but have won the Expected Goals category in both games against Burnley and Liverpool. Under Ralph Hasenhuttl Southampton have been a decent team going forward and it is only a lack of clinical finishing which has prevented them from earning at least a point from both League games played.
They continue to create plenty of chances, but Southampton have yet to find a shape that makes them tougher at the back. In 24 Premier League games, Southampton have kept just 3 clean sheets under Hasenhuttl, although the manager will be reminding his players that one of those came here at the Amex Stadium where Southampton left with a 0-1 win last season.
This Brighton team have shown a little more ambition going forward than Chris Hughton's one that Southampton last faced and I think that can make a difference for the home team. They look like they have a real creative edge, but I also think Southampton can play their part in this south coast derby with the attacking threat they have posed.
Brighton have scored in 5 of their last 8 home Premier League games so I am anticipating they can get on the scoreboard in this fixture. Southampton have not been as creative away from home as they have become at St Mary's under Ralph Hasenhuttl, but they should find a way to create some chances against a more progressive Brighton team and I think backing both teams to hit the net in this one is the right play.
Manchester United v Crystal Palace Pick: It has become very clear that any revival of Manchester United to join the top of English Football is going to come in slow steps, but the opening two Premier League fixtures in 2019/20 have perhaps shown a decent season is in the offing. No one will realistically expect a title challenge barring Liverpool and Manchester City falling way short of the standards they set last time out, but Manchester United have to believe they are good enough for a top four spot.
A win over Chelsea followed by a draw at Wolves is a good start and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has to be looking for his team to keep the momentum going when they host Crystal Palace this weekend. Last season an 11 game home winning run in League games against Crystal Palace came to an end, but Manchester United have shown some clinical finishing in the first two games to think they will do better than the goalless draw the corresponding fixture ended in.
Crystal Palace can't be underestimated considering they won at Manchester City and Arsenal last season and also drew here, but this has not been a great start to the new season. Failing to score in both League games is one thing, but Crystal Palace barely laid a glove on Sheffield United last Sunday.
Manchester United looked much better defensively in the draw with Wolves than they did in the opening game against Chelsea. With Aaron Wan-Bissaka being familiar with the talent of Wilfried Zaha and Harry Maguire offering some leadership at the back, I do think Manchester United can contain Crystal Palace in this one and match the number of clean sheets they earned at Old Trafford in the Premier League in 2018/19 after just two home games in 2019/20.
The home team have kept clean sheets in their last 6 home games against Crystal Palace and I think Manchester United can earn one here. They will have to be careful of the Crystal Palace set pieces, but with Maguire in the back I think Manchester United will be good enough defensively and show enough attacking threat to win this fixture.
So far this season Crystal Palace have looked far from convincing in defensive areas and I will look to back Manchester United to win this fixture with a clean sheet.
Sheffield United v Leicester City Pick: This is one of two Premier League games this weekend where I genuinely could make a case for all three of the results to be the final outcome.
With that in mind I don't think anyone will be surprised that I am going to move past this fixture and instead add their stats into the books to see whether there is something we can find out about them for matches to come through the season.
Sheffield United have looked pretty good defensively despite the tactics used by Chris Wilder which sees his centre halves making overlapping runs on the wings. The concern in making sweeping statements about the defensive shape is that Sheffield United have played Bournemouth and Crystal Palace, whereas this week they take on a quality looking Leicester City team.
They have created chances too so there is definitely a real opportunity for Sheffield United to continue their strong start to the season. However I was very impressed with Leicester City in their 1-1 draw at Chelsea last Sunday in a game that a mistake proved costly for them early in the fixture.
The fightback in the second half saw Leicester City finish much the stronger, but I do have to wonder if they have enough goals in the side despite the obvious quality play of the midfield. The feeling is they are perhaps over-reliant on Jamie Vardy, but they should be good for a goal this weekend which may be enough to earn the three points if they can continue to play effectively at the back.
I just don't know how it will go and I would not pay to find out, although if I had a gun to my head I would likely select the draw.
Watford v West Ham United Pick: This is the second of the fixtures I can make a case for all three outcomes.
Watford and West Ham United have both made stuttering starts to the new season, but I would expect both to be much higher up the League table when it is all said and done in May. Out of the two teams Watford have been much unluckier and I wouldn't have minded backing them on the Draw No Bet market, but the layers have understood the situation and Watford are a strong enough favourite to avoid.
West Ham United have continued to look erratic defensively and were fortunate to earn a result at Brighton last Saturday. They will need to be much better at the back if Manuel Pellegrini is going to guide them towards a potential European berth, but at the moment neither team is easy to trust with a lack of goals a real concern.
As I have said, my edge is with Watford who perhaps have shown slightly more quality in the final third, but West Ham United look a team who will score plenty at this level too. Either way I will keep a watching brief on this one.
Liverpool v Arsenal Pick: Unai Emery has been joking that his Arsenal team 'never' want to play Liverpool, but I am not sure that is an ideal way to get his troops ready to visit a ground on which they have taken some serious punishment in recent years. While they have shown signs that they may be a little more effective defensively, Arsenal are going to be tested by a Liverpool team who have scored at least three times in 5 of their last 6 at Anfield against them.
Last season Liverpool thumped Arsenal 5-1 here and it was not a scoreline that particularly flattered the home side either. Chances were created thick and fast and Arsenal were a mess at the back.
This time both come in with 100% Premier League records, but both have been fortunate to have as many points on the board. Last weekend it would have been fairer if both Arsenal and Liverpool dropped points, but they earned narrow 2-1 wins over Burnley and Southampton respectively, albeit while looking very shaky at the back.
Liverpool have had a poor pre-season and that seems to have carried over to their League form from a defensive point of view. This Arsenal team have plenty of attacking threat to believe they can punish any vulnerabilities that Liverpool continue to show at the back, but the flip side is I am struggling to know how Arsenal are going to contain the Liverpool attack.
Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino were all playing in summer tournaments for their nations, but all three have come back looking very fresh and ready to go. They have already contributed 5 of the 9 goals Liverpool have scored in all competitions this season and I do think it will be a real test of Arsenal's supposed improvement here.
Liverpool have played Arsenal 7 times under Jurgen Klopp and it is a stunning statistic that they have scored at least three goals in 6 of those games. They have won 4 of those 6 games and I simply think they are going to out-score Arsenal again when you consider the 3 games at Anfield have ended 12-2 in favour of Liverpool since the German took over at the latter.
I do think Unai Emery will have learnt from the experiences of the last game at Anfield, but I also have to believe Liverpool's current form is enough to see off this opponent. The Gunners lost at 7 of the top 9 last season and 4 of those defeats came by two or more goal margins.
Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United all were beaten by at least two goal margins here last season and I think Liverpool win a high-scoring fixture as well as covering the Asian Handicap.
Bournemouth v Manchester City Pick: The television cameras head to the south coast for the first of the two live Premier League fixtures to be played on Sunday and all eyes will be on Bournemouth and the approach they take to this fixture.
A few months ago Bournemouth hosted Manchester City and had almost no ambition to actually try and test their visitors and instead Eddie Howe decided a deep defensive effort was the best way to approach the fixture. The Cherries did not have ONE shot that day, on or off target, and Manchester City dominated the fixture and unsurprisingly eventually broke them down in a 0-1 win.
It could have been easier for Manchester City that day if they had been a little more fortunate in front of goal, but they were also playing under the real pressure of a title run in as they were still chasing Liverpool back then. That is not the case in August and I expect that will free up Manchester City, while I am also expecting Bournemouth to play with more courage.
That may not be an ideal approach early in the game, especially if Bournemouth continue to offer up chances to teams as they did against Sheffield United and Aston Villa. Now they play the best team in England who are going to be much more dangerous in the final third than the two newly promoted clubs, although Bournemouth have shown they can limit the damage that Manchester City do to them.
Bournemouth have not conceded more than two goals in any of their last 3 home games against Manchester City and I have to believe they are going to take a similar approach here. It makes the Asian Handicap unappealing as I don't like opposing Manchester City who have won all 6 games in the Premier League played after a draw in the last couple of seasons.
The Champions have shown they can be clinical on their day as they were at the London Stadium two weeks ago, and Bournemouth have the tendency to take at least one big home defeat to one of the top six clubs in each season they have been in the top flight.
They have been more competitive for the most part though and Bournemouth have not rolled over for Manchester City in the three games played against them since Pep Guardiola arrived on these shores. Bournemouth have lost all of those though and I expect Manchester City will leave with a win on Sunday too, although I will back them to do so in a game that features less than five goals combined.
Bournemouth don't score a lot of home goals against the top teams in general, but they also don't concede a hatful either. They have found a way to limit the damage Manchester City can produce against them in recent seasons and I think Eddie Howe will go back to that blueprint, although his team will still likely end up coming up short.
7 of the last 39 Manchester City away games in the Premier League have seen five or more goals shared out and I will look for them to win a fixture with fewer than that number produced in this game.
Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United Pick: To say Tottenham Hotspur were a little fortunate to leave the Etihad Statement with a point may be a huge understatement if the Expected Goals are looked at and I don't think many fans or neutrals will argue that point.
Mauricio Pochettino won't be too worried about that though and will be very happy with another point to put on the board as they look to remain unbeaten ahead of the North London derby to come next weekend. His Tottenham Hotspur side were very, very strong in their opening win over Aston Villa and the return of Heung-Min Son is a boost for a team who will be looking for more clinical finishing in the final third.
They will be expected to create chances against Newcastle United despite needing narrow 1-0 wins to beat this opponent in each of the last two seasons. Both of those games were played at Wembley Stadium, and Tottenham Hotspur will feel their fans can make a big difference for them in their new Stadium.
So far this season Newcastle United are perhaps not playing with the same resiliency as they were under Rafael Benitez and that is an area Tottenham Hotspur will feel they can exploit with Christian Eriksen, Harry Kane and a returning Heung-Min Son. The Magpies will have to be a lot more careful defensively than they were in the 3-1 defeat to Norwich City, while Newcastle United are perhaps lacking a goal threat.
It was a concern in pre-season with Joelinton expected to come in and hit the ground running for a team who had lost plenty of goals when selling Ayoze Perez and not re-signing Solomon Rondon. The new signing might be absent this weekend which just makes it all the more difficult for Newcastle United who are going to have to go to basics to try and make life tough for their hosts.
The new season is too early to make sweeping statements, but I do think Newcastle United are going to struggle to contain Tottenham Hotspur. The hosts created a lot of chances against Aston Villa and Newcastle United were poor defensively a week ago. A week on the training ground may not be enough time to really turn that around and I think Steve Bruce is already feeling the pressure at St James' Park.
Backing Tottenham Hotspur to beat Newcastle United by two or more goals is the selection for me here. The Magpies showed some resilience when playing the top teams away from home last season, but they have lost some key performers and Tottenham Hotspur should be able to ride the momentum from the first two weeks to earn a solid win in the second of the live Sunday offerings.
Wolves v Burnley Pick: We have seen the early Europa League fixtures being a real detriment to clubs in the Premier League and Wolves have yet to win a game in the top flight despite putting together 5 straight wins in European competition.
They haven't played badly in draws with Leicester City and Manchester United and Wolves are strong favourites to beat Burnley on Sunday. However they have to make sure they have enough rest having put in a big effort to beat Torino in Italy on Thursday evening and knowing the game with Burnley is going to be another physical challenge.
Both matches against Burnley were tough last season, but I do think Wolves have to be given an edge being at home. Defensively Wolves have been pretty good in both games played in the Premier League so far this season and they look like a team who are going to be difficult to beat.
I have to credit Burnley for the performance they produced against Arsenal last Saturday and they have not played a game in the time Wolves have had to play two competitive fixtures. It should be mean a well rested team heads to Molineux and Sean Dyche will be all too aware of the impact the early season Europa League Qualifiers can have on a squad having seen his Burnley team struggle in that spot twelve months ago.
Burnley are a team that can surprise if opponents underestimate them and they are not likely to roll over. I still fancy Wolves to win though and I think it may be another narrow, tight encounter between these teams as the home team looks to build some momentum to close out the month.
Goals may be at a premium in this one and I think backing Wolves to win a largely low-scoring encounter is the way to go with this fixture. They should have just enough quality in the final third to break down Burnley and I will look to back Wolves to win in a game that features less than four goals at odds against.
MY PICKS: Aston Villa + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Norwich City + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brighton-Southampton Both Teams to Score @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win & Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolves & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Season 2019/20 Update: 7-8-1, - 3.02 Units (32 Units Staked, - 9.44% Yield)
Some have suggested it is a sign of standards slipping that a point at Wolves is seen as a positive result, but you have to know almost nothing about football to fail to recognise the importance of the outcome of the trip to Molineux. Manchester United are a work in progress and it isn't that long ago that people were laughing at Jurgen Klopp for leading celebrations after a home draw with West Brom when he was rebuilding a squad and a culture at Anfield.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will know it is going to take some small steps to help recover United to a position they once dominated in English Football, and you can read more of my thoughts about the club here.
Those were written before the game against Wolves was played.
Last week was a really irritating one for the Weekend Football Picks which returned a loss. However I was a Paul Pogba penalty away from actually moving the season totals back into a positive number and I don't think I was wrong in backing Manchester City to beat Tottenham Hotspur considering the stats on the day.
A bit of bad luck is par for the course over a long season, but the hope is that I can at least point to that rather than poor selections if I don't turn this month around.
The Premier League is back underway on Friday this week with another live game that evening and all ten games will be played by Sunday evening.
Aston Villa v Everton Pick: There is little doubt that Aston Villa need to improve defensively if they are going to survive in the Premier League in their return to the top flight, but there have been enough positives to take from their opening two fixtures to believe they can do that.
Twelve months ago Fulham came into the Premier League after making a huge investment in the summer and Aston Villa have done something similar. However I do think Dean Smith will be able to find a way to integrate the players he has purchased compared with Fulham who were looking to make wholesale changes to their starting eleven and there have been some solid play in the final third that have seen Aston Villa creating chances.
Defensively there are gaps that need to be filled, but outside of a really poor opening fifteen minutes last weekend Aston Villa did show enough to believe they will earn plenty of points if they maintain the standards set. On another day Aston Villa would not have lost that game and I think they would be a much shorter price than they are heading into this third game of the League season.
Instead Everton are a clear favourite to win at Villa Park and this is a club that has managed to earn the three points in 3 of their last 4 visits to this ground. The Toffees have made a good start to the season with 4 points earned against Crystal Palace and Watford, but Everton were a touch fortunate last week and the potential absence of Lucas Digne is a blow.
They have been a tough team to break down and score goals against in the final weeks of last season and Everton have continued that to open this one, but both Crystal Palace and Watford have had chances. Aston Villa at home look like a team that will test Everton too and I do think there may be a lack of goals that holds Everton back even with the arrival of talented youngster Moise Kean.
Everton have only won 8 of their last 39 away Premier League games since August 2017 and last season they scored 24 goals in 19 away League games. They have already been held to a goalless draw by Crystal Palace earlier this month and I have to be wary of backing a favourite that has struggled in the final third as much as Everton have done.
Aston Villa look like a team that will create chances at home and I think they can snap what has been a poor recent record against Everton. If the home team score once I believe that will put them in a good position to avoid a defeat, even though The Villains have been poor from a defensive standpoint to open the season.
I do like the balance Marco Silva has found in his Everton team in recent months, but they are a team that are more vulnerable away from home. Aston Villa can underline that by earning at least a point in this one and I will back the home team with a start on the Asian Handicap.
Norwich City v Chelsea Pick: The opening Premier League game on Saturday comes from Carrow Road as the television cameras visit this ground as a top flight one for the first time in three years. Norwich City are coming into this weekend off a very good 3-1 win over Newcastle United last time out, while Chelsea are still searching for their first win under Frank Lampard.
Even though that is the case, Chelsea are the favourites to win this one heading into this weekend, although the price has just drifted slightly.
The layers are perhaps right in having Chelsea in that position when you think this is a team that did finish in the top four last season and have not been as bad as the results may indicate. If they can find some clinical finishing in the final third, Chelsea won't have too many issues, but the feeling is that it could be a season long problem for Frank Lampard to address.
Still, Chelsea have created some good chances and much is going to depend on their mood in any given game as to how they will perform. However, at the moment it is hard to really expect Chelsea to win comfortably and they are going into a tough ground where Norwich City have been very good over the last twelve months.
Last season Norwich City scored plenty of goals at home in the Championship, but the concern remains that they conceded too many too. Even an average Newcastle United scored here last week and I would be surprised if the home team are able to contain Chelsea with the way they approach their fixtures and the tactics used by Daniel Farke.
It will give Norwich City a chance, even against the better teams in the League, and I think this is a confident team that can pose Chelsea plenty of questions in the second live game of the weekend. Last weekend I selected Leicester City with the start at Stamford Bridge and this weekend I do think Norwich City can be backed having caused problems for Liverpool and Newcastle United already.
I have little doubt Chelsea will cause problems too, but Norwich City can upset them and keep the pressure on Frank Lampard. Both teams scoring won't be a big surprise and I would be disappointed if Norwich City are blown away considering their own levels to open up this month.
Backing the home team on the Asian Handicap looks the right play here.
Brighton v Southampton Pick: It can be very difficult to ignore results and change the way you think about a team and that will be the case for those who have been surprised by the opening results Brighton and Southampton have earned.
The Seagulls are under new guidance this season and Graham Potter has got the squad playing some good football in the first two weeks of the new campaign. They were very unfortunate to not beat West Ham United here last weekend, and Brighton have been pretty sound defensively while creating a fair few chances.
On the other hand Southampton have lost twice, but have won the Expected Goals category in both games against Burnley and Liverpool. Under Ralph Hasenhuttl Southampton have been a decent team going forward and it is only a lack of clinical finishing which has prevented them from earning at least a point from both League games played.
They continue to create plenty of chances, but Southampton have yet to find a shape that makes them tougher at the back. In 24 Premier League games, Southampton have kept just 3 clean sheets under Hasenhuttl, although the manager will be reminding his players that one of those came here at the Amex Stadium where Southampton left with a 0-1 win last season.
This Brighton team have shown a little more ambition going forward than Chris Hughton's one that Southampton last faced and I think that can make a difference for the home team. They look like they have a real creative edge, but I also think Southampton can play their part in this south coast derby with the attacking threat they have posed.
Brighton have scored in 5 of their last 8 home Premier League games so I am anticipating they can get on the scoreboard in this fixture. Southampton have not been as creative away from home as they have become at St Mary's under Ralph Hasenhuttl, but they should find a way to create some chances against a more progressive Brighton team and I think backing both teams to hit the net in this one is the right play.
Manchester United v Crystal Palace Pick: It has become very clear that any revival of Manchester United to join the top of English Football is going to come in slow steps, but the opening two Premier League fixtures in 2019/20 have perhaps shown a decent season is in the offing. No one will realistically expect a title challenge barring Liverpool and Manchester City falling way short of the standards they set last time out, but Manchester United have to believe they are good enough for a top four spot.
A win over Chelsea followed by a draw at Wolves is a good start and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has to be looking for his team to keep the momentum going when they host Crystal Palace this weekend. Last season an 11 game home winning run in League games against Crystal Palace came to an end, but Manchester United have shown some clinical finishing in the first two games to think they will do better than the goalless draw the corresponding fixture ended in.
Crystal Palace can't be underestimated considering they won at Manchester City and Arsenal last season and also drew here, but this has not been a great start to the new season. Failing to score in both League games is one thing, but Crystal Palace barely laid a glove on Sheffield United last Sunday.
Manchester United looked much better defensively in the draw with Wolves than they did in the opening game against Chelsea. With Aaron Wan-Bissaka being familiar with the talent of Wilfried Zaha and Harry Maguire offering some leadership at the back, I do think Manchester United can contain Crystal Palace in this one and match the number of clean sheets they earned at Old Trafford in the Premier League in 2018/19 after just two home games in 2019/20.
The home team have kept clean sheets in their last 6 home games against Crystal Palace and I think Manchester United can earn one here. They will have to be careful of the Crystal Palace set pieces, but with Maguire in the back I think Manchester United will be good enough defensively and show enough attacking threat to win this fixture.
So far this season Crystal Palace have looked far from convincing in defensive areas and I will look to back Manchester United to win this fixture with a clean sheet.
Sheffield United v Leicester City Pick: This is one of two Premier League games this weekend where I genuinely could make a case for all three of the results to be the final outcome.
With that in mind I don't think anyone will be surprised that I am going to move past this fixture and instead add their stats into the books to see whether there is something we can find out about them for matches to come through the season.
Sheffield United have looked pretty good defensively despite the tactics used by Chris Wilder which sees his centre halves making overlapping runs on the wings. The concern in making sweeping statements about the defensive shape is that Sheffield United have played Bournemouth and Crystal Palace, whereas this week they take on a quality looking Leicester City team.
They have created chances too so there is definitely a real opportunity for Sheffield United to continue their strong start to the season. However I was very impressed with Leicester City in their 1-1 draw at Chelsea last Sunday in a game that a mistake proved costly for them early in the fixture.
The fightback in the second half saw Leicester City finish much the stronger, but I do have to wonder if they have enough goals in the side despite the obvious quality play of the midfield. The feeling is they are perhaps over-reliant on Jamie Vardy, but they should be good for a goal this weekend which may be enough to earn the three points if they can continue to play effectively at the back.
I just don't know how it will go and I would not pay to find out, although if I had a gun to my head I would likely select the draw.
Watford v West Ham United Pick: This is the second of the fixtures I can make a case for all three outcomes.
Watford and West Ham United have both made stuttering starts to the new season, but I would expect both to be much higher up the League table when it is all said and done in May. Out of the two teams Watford have been much unluckier and I wouldn't have minded backing them on the Draw No Bet market, but the layers have understood the situation and Watford are a strong enough favourite to avoid.
West Ham United have continued to look erratic defensively and were fortunate to earn a result at Brighton last Saturday. They will need to be much better at the back if Manuel Pellegrini is going to guide them towards a potential European berth, but at the moment neither team is easy to trust with a lack of goals a real concern.
As I have said, my edge is with Watford who perhaps have shown slightly more quality in the final third, but West Ham United look a team who will score plenty at this level too. Either way I will keep a watching brief on this one.
Liverpool v Arsenal Pick: Unai Emery has been joking that his Arsenal team 'never' want to play Liverpool, but I am not sure that is an ideal way to get his troops ready to visit a ground on which they have taken some serious punishment in recent years. While they have shown signs that they may be a little more effective defensively, Arsenal are going to be tested by a Liverpool team who have scored at least three times in 5 of their last 6 at Anfield against them.
Last season Liverpool thumped Arsenal 5-1 here and it was not a scoreline that particularly flattered the home side either. Chances were created thick and fast and Arsenal were a mess at the back.
This time both come in with 100% Premier League records, but both have been fortunate to have as many points on the board. Last weekend it would have been fairer if both Arsenal and Liverpool dropped points, but they earned narrow 2-1 wins over Burnley and Southampton respectively, albeit while looking very shaky at the back.
Liverpool have had a poor pre-season and that seems to have carried over to their League form from a defensive point of view. This Arsenal team have plenty of attacking threat to believe they can punish any vulnerabilities that Liverpool continue to show at the back, but the flip side is I am struggling to know how Arsenal are going to contain the Liverpool attack.
Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino were all playing in summer tournaments for their nations, but all three have come back looking very fresh and ready to go. They have already contributed 5 of the 9 goals Liverpool have scored in all competitions this season and I do think it will be a real test of Arsenal's supposed improvement here.
Liverpool have played Arsenal 7 times under Jurgen Klopp and it is a stunning statistic that they have scored at least three goals in 6 of those games. They have won 4 of those 6 games and I simply think they are going to out-score Arsenal again when you consider the 3 games at Anfield have ended 12-2 in favour of Liverpool since the German took over at the latter.
I do think Unai Emery will have learnt from the experiences of the last game at Anfield, but I also have to believe Liverpool's current form is enough to see off this opponent. The Gunners lost at 7 of the top 9 last season and 4 of those defeats came by two or more goal margins.
Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United all were beaten by at least two goal margins here last season and I think Liverpool win a high-scoring fixture as well as covering the Asian Handicap.
Bournemouth v Manchester City Pick: The television cameras head to the south coast for the first of the two live Premier League fixtures to be played on Sunday and all eyes will be on Bournemouth and the approach they take to this fixture.
A few months ago Bournemouth hosted Manchester City and had almost no ambition to actually try and test their visitors and instead Eddie Howe decided a deep defensive effort was the best way to approach the fixture. The Cherries did not have ONE shot that day, on or off target, and Manchester City dominated the fixture and unsurprisingly eventually broke them down in a 0-1 win.
It could have been easier for Manchester City that day if they had been a little more fortunate in front of goal, but they were also playing under the real pressure of a title run in as they were still chasing Liverpool back then. That is not the case in August and I expect that will free up Manchester City, while I am also expecting Bournemouth to play with more courage.
That may not be an ideal approach early in the game, especially if Bournemouth continue to offer up chances to teams as they did against Sheffield United and Aston Villa. Now they play the best team in England who are going to be much more dangerous in the final third than the two newly promoted clubs, although Bournemouth have shown they can limit the damage that Manchester City do to them.
Bournemouth have not conceded more than two goals in any of their last 3 home games against Manchester City and I have to believe they are going to take a similar approach here. It makes the Asian Handicap unappealing as I don't like opposing Manchester City who have won all 6 games in the Premier League played after a draw in the last couple of seasons.
The Champions have shown they can be clinical on their day as they were at the London Stadium two weeks ago, and Bournemouth have the tendency to take at least one big home defeat to one of the top six clubs in each season they have been in the top flight.
They have been more competitive for the most part though and Bournemouth have not rolled over for Manchester City in the three games played against them since Pep Guardiola arrived on these shores. Bournemouth have lost all of those though and I expect Manchester City will leave with a win on Sunday too, although I will back them to do so in a game that features less than five goals combined.
Bournemouth don't score a lot of home goals against the top teams in general, but they also don't concede a hatful either. They have found a way to limit the damage Manchester City can produce against them in recent seasons and I think Eddie Howe will go back to that blueprint, although his team will still likely end up coming up short.
7 of the last 39 Manchester City away games in the Premier League have seen five or more goals shared out and I will look for them to win a fixture with fewer than that number produced in this game.
Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United Pick: To say Tottenham Hotspur were a little fortunate to leave the Etihad Statement with a point may be a huge understatement if the Expected Goals are looked at and I don't think many fans or neutrals will argue that point.
Mauricio Pochettino won't be too worried about that though and will be very happy with another point to put on the board as they look to remain unbeaten ahead of the North London derby to come next weekend. His Tottenham Hotspur side were very, very strong in their opening win over Aston Villa and the return of Heung-Min Son is a boost for a team who will be looking for more clinical finishing in the final third.
They will be expected to create chances against Newcastle United despite needing narrow 1-0 wins to beat this opponent in each of the last two seasons. Both of those games were played at Wembley Stadium, and Tottenham Hotspur will feel their fans can make a big difference for them in their new Stadium.
So far this season Newcastle United are perhaps not playing with the same resiliency as they were under Rafael Benitez and that is an area Tottenham Hotspur will feel they can exploit with Christian Eriksen, Harry Kane and a returning Heung-Min Son. The Magpies will have to be a lot more careful defensively than they were in the 3-1 defeat to Norwich City, while Newcastle United are perhaps lacking a goal threat.
It was a concern in pre-season with Joelinton expected to come in and hit the ground running for a team who had lost plenty of goals when selling Ayoze Perez and not re-signing Solomon Rondon. The new signing might be absent this weekend which just makes it all the more difficult for Newcastle United who are going to have to go to basics to try and make life tough for their hosts.
The new season is too early to make sweeping statements, but I do think Newcastle United are going to struggle to contain Tottenham Hotspur. The hosts created a lot of chances against Aston Villa and Newcastle United were poor defensively a week ago. A week on the training ground may not be enough time to really turn that around and I think Steve Bruce is already feeling the pressure at St James' Park.
Backing Tottenham Hotspur to beat Newcastle United by two or more goals is the selection for me here. The Magpies showed some resilience when playing the top teams away from home last season, but they have lost some key performers and Tottenham Hotspur should be able to ride the momentum from the first two weeks to earn a solid win in the second of the live Sunday offerings.
Wolves v Burnley Pick: We have seen the early Europa League fixtures being a real detriment to clubs in the Premier League and Wolves have yet to win a game in the top flight despite putting together 5 straight wins in European competition.
They haven't played badly in draws with Leicester City and Manchester United and Wolves are strong favourites to beat Burnley on Sunday. However they have to make sure they have enough rest having put in a big effort to beat Torino in Italy on Thursday evening and knowing the game with Burnley is going to be another physical challenge.
Both matches against Burnley were tough last season, but I do think Wolves have to be given an edge being at home. Defensively Wolves have been pretty good in both games played in the Premier League so far this season and they look like a team who are going to be difficult to beat.
I have to credit Burnley for the performance they produced against Arsenal last Saturday and they have not played a game in the time Wolves have had to play two competitive fixtures. It should be mean a well rested team heads to Molineux and Sean Dyche will be all too aware of the impact the early season Europa League Qualifiers can have on a squad having seen his Burnley team struggle in that spot twelve months ago.
Burnley are a team that can surprise if opponents underestimate them and they are not likely to roll over. I still fancy Wolves to win though and I think it may be another narrow, tight encounter between these teams as the home team looks to build some momentum to close out the month.
Goals may be at a premium in this one and I think backing Wolves to win a largely low-scoring encounter is the way to go with this fixture. They should have just enough quality in the final third to break down Burnley and I will look to back Wolves to win in a game that features less than four goals at odds against.
MY PICKS: Aston Villa + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Norwich City + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brighton-Southampton Both Teams to Score @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win & Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolves & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Season 2019/20 Update: 7-8-1, - 3.02 Units (32 Units Staked, - 9.44% Yield)
Fantasy Football (GameWeek 3)
GameWeek 2 turned out to be a mixed week for the Fantasy Football team I started, but the Sunday and Monday points saved what looked to be a difficult week before then.
John Lundstram not only scored the winning goal for Sheffield United, but the clean sheet added to the points the player picked up. On Monday Anthony Martial scored another goal for Manchester United and they helped my team produce 50 points in GW2 which is more than the average for the week and moves me onto 134 points for the season so far.
Joshua King was one of four goalscorers in the eleven selected, but I have to be largely disappointed with the poor returns made by the other players despite the decent overall returns.
It is still a time to largely keep faith with the squad, although I do know the Wildcard has been a popular chip through the first couple of weeks of the season and likely also in GW3. I am pretty satisfied with the squad I have right now although two transfers are available this week and I do intend to use them.
Last week I also identified some players who could make a difference to your Fantasy teams out there and I have to say I wish I had taken my own advice on some of them. Jordan Pickford earned a clean sheet, while all three strikers identified got on the scoreboard and two of them have increased their prices in the last week.
Teemu Pukki and Ashley Barnes continued their hot starts, but I think we may be moving into a position where they are being bought high and so it might be wise to not rush out and purchase either.
Below I have my latest list of players that I am tracking or considering bringing into my team this week.
Goalkeeper
Nick Pope (4.5 Million- Burnley): The only player I am listing here this week is the Burnley goalkeeper. The next two weeks look like difficult games, but Pope could be worth bringing in after that if you want to use funds to improve other positions.
Last week I identified both Adrian and Jordan Pickford in this spot. The former is still the Liverpool Number 1 despite a horrendous error against Southampton, but for how long is the question? The latter earned another clean sheet last weekend, but his price has since moved from 5.5 to 5.6 and I am not sure the next two weeks present great chances to add to the clean sheet run.
Defender
Harry Maguire (5.5 Million- Manchester United): I had the new Manchester United centre half in this spot last week and the much improved defensive performance against Wolves compared with Chelsea has impressed. The early season fixtures are still fairly difficult looking on paper, but I think Maguire and Manchester United have a good chance for a clean sheet this weekend.
Yerry Mina (5.5 Million- Everton): I've said through the first two weeks of the season that Everton are in good form defensively. Games against Aston Villa and Wolves will be testing, but I think the Colombian will provide a threat for goals as long as he stays healthy, a concern considering his record last season.
I mentioned Fabian Delph last week as a potential player to bring in considering he may be a Defender that could be playing much higher up the pitch for Everton. Until he is passed fit, I do think Delph is someone to keep on the watch list, although the difficulty of fixtures might increase by the time he returns to action.
Midfielder
Kevin De Bruyne (9.6 Million- Manchester City): The Belgian has shown fantastic form and was playing further up the pitch than I thought he would be in Manchester City's last game. I wouldn't lose faith in Bernardo Silva just yet, while Raheem Sterling is the obvious choice from the City midfield, but De Bruyne is someone I am keeping my eye on if I want to shift some cash to other areas of my team.
Sadio Mane (11.5 Million- Liverpool): Over the last eight months Sadio Mane is coming close to matching the output of Mohamed Salah and is offering a saving of 1 million to use on other members of the squad. Three goals in two starts shows Mane has picked up from where he left off and switching Salah for the Senegalese forward is a real option.
Christian Eriksen (8.9 Million- Tottenham Hotspur): Definitely not a move to make before the international break, but keep an eye on him if he stays at Tottenham Hotspur until January at least. Crystal Palace, Leicester City, Southampton, Brighton and Watford are the fixtures to come after the September international break.
Todd Cantwell (4.6 Million- Norwich City)/Marco Stiepermann (5.5 Million- Norwich City): Personally I might wait until after the Manchester City game in early September before finding the Norwich City midfielder I want to invest in, but both are playing in attacking areas for a side that is looking to take the game to opponents both home and away on early season looks.
Trezeguet (5.5 Million- Aston Villa): They might have lost both games played in the League, but Aston Villa have shown an attacking threat and Trezeguet looks like he will have an impact in the League. Aston Villa don't have the most difficult looking fixtures coming up so definitely a player I would be considering to free up funds in other areas.
None of my midfield options impressed last week as Riyad Mahrez was back on the bench for Manchester City, while Gylfi Sigurdsson has made a slow start to the campaign. This section would have looked better if Paul Pogba had scored the penalty he did brilliantly to win against Wolves on Monday evening.
Forward
David McGoldrick (5.5 Million- Sheffield United): I am not sure how many more chances he will get to lead the Sheffield United line if he can't begin to convert opportunities coming his way. However David McGoldrick is the player who has had the best stats for The Blades thanks to the huge miss against Crystal Palace and might still be a decent 'cheaper' option to pick in the squad.
Neal Maupay (6 Million- Brighton): Glenn Murray is getting the call from Graham Potter to lead the line, but the ageing forward has to be getting pushed by the likes of Florin Andone and Neal Maupay. I have little doubt the former Brentford striker can score goals at this level and the positive approach of Potter will certainly help.
Callum Wilson (8 Million- Bournemouth): Has yet to open his mark for Bournemouth this season, but Wilson has shown decent form and won't be too far from putting his name back on the scoresheet.
I placed three names in the Forward section and it really could not have gone much better for all of them. Roberto Firmino and Ashley Barnes both scored in away games at Southampton and Arsenal respectively, but Teemu Pukki was the big impact player with a hat-trick against Newcastle United which has seen his ownership increase rapidly.
My feeling is that Pukki will have chances this weekend against Chelsea and West Ham United next time out, but Norwich City then face Manchester City and it could easily also become three straight weeks without a goal for the popular pick. If you are going to pick him, I would get on him now before any further price rise and then hope he continues his hot start to the season prior to the City game.
GameWeek 3 Team
Staying with the squad from GW1 through GW2 is a positive in terms of giving me two Free Transfers and I didn't have a bad week in either, although my Captain choice has been wrong on both occasions.
Below you can see the team I am selecting for the weekend and also highlighting the transfers I have made.
The two Free Transfers were both used this week as I needed one to make the other due to the prices of the players. One was a transfer I always had in mind and the other has come about because of what I have seen through the first two weeks of the season.
First up I have made the move to replace Mohamed Salah with Sadio Mane- from day one I knew this was a realistic option for me as Mane had been in a very similar high level of form for Liverpool over the last six months of the previous season as Salah had been and being able to save 1 million for the squad was a bonus.
Three goals in his first two starts for Liverpool suggests Mane is yet to drop off from the standards he has set and he has a good record against upcoming opponents which made him the pick. I decided to keep Josh King rather than bring in David McGoldrick for a similar saving because of the fixtures both are due to play over the coming weeks.
It has opened the door for the other transfer and that is bringing in Harry Maguire for Tyrone Mings. Aston Villa are still learning at this level and I am not convinced they have a lot of clean sheets coming up, while Manchester United were impressive enough at the back last week at Wolves to make me want to invest in a defender.
This may not be a long-term choice with some very difficult looking matches to come up, but Maguire has also been targeted in set pieces and I think he may offer a threat for Manchester United. I also think United have shown some improvement defensively which could lead to more clean sheets than they managed last season.
My GameWeek 3 team is below with the changes made- it looks like a 4-5-1 formation on paper, but with the positions players have started in over the first couple of weeks, the look of the team is more of a 3-5-2 (Lundstram midfield/Martial up front).
The two Free Transfers were both used this week as I needed one to make the other due to the prices of the players. One was a transfer I always had in mind and the other has come about because of what I have seen through the first two weeks of the season.
First up I have made the move to replace Mohamed Salah with Sadio Mane- from day one I knew this was a realistic option for me as Mane had been in a very similar high level of form for Liverpool over the last six months of the previous season as Salah had been and being able to save 1 million for the squad was a bonus.
Three goals in his first two starts for Liverpool suggests Mane is yet to drop off from the standards he has set and he has a good record against upcoming opponents which made him the pick. I decided to keep Josh King rather than bring in David McGoldrick for a similar saving because of the fixtures both are due to play over the coming weeks.
It has opened the door for the other transfer and that is bringing in Harry Maguire for Tyrone Mings. Aston Villa are still learning at this level and I am not convinced they have a lot of clean sheets coming up, while Manchester United were impressive enough at the back last week at Wolves to make me want to invest in a defender.
This may not be a long-term choice with some very difficult looking matches to come up, but Maguire has also been targeted in set pieces and I think he may offer a threat for Manchester United. I also think United have shown some improvement defensively which could lead to more clean sheets than they managed last season.
My GameWeek 3 team is below with the changes made- it looks like a 4-5-1 formation on paper, but with the positions players have started in over the first couple of weeks, the look of the team is more of a 3-5-2 (Lundstram midfield/Martial up front).
Ederson: Man City have two clean sheets in three visits to the Vitality Stadium and I continue with my one goalkeeper policy rather than chopping and changing who I start like some do.
Virgil Van Dijk: Liverpool have not looked that good defensively and I expect Arsenal to challenge them. However you can't ignore amount of clean sheets Liverpool have had in the last two seasons and the centre half remains a threat from set pieces.
Andrew Robertson: Same reasons as above why Liverpool are a risky defensive pick at the moment, especially without Alisson in goal. Assists could be important for Robertson to make up for points lost through a lack of clean sheets.
John Lundstram: I picked the Sheffield United 'defender' as he has been playing in a much more advanced position for the club. He set up another huge chance in GW2 after a decent GW1 outing, and Lundstram backed up that positioning by scoring the winning goal. Might not get a clean sheet this week, but attacking returns potentially make up for that.
Harry Maguire: A home game against Crystal Palace was one of only two clean sheets for Manchester United at Old Trafford last season and the predominantly solid defending last week impressed me. Harry Maguire is also going to be a big target from set pieces so can always add to his points in the air.
Youri Tielemans: He hasn't had the impact I was hoping for, but Leicester City face Sheffield United and Bournemouth over the next two weeks and I will re-evaluate his position in my squad following the international break.
Sadio Mane (C): Mohamed Salah has scored in three of his four appearances against Arsenal so this may not be the best time to take the Egyptian out of the line up, especially as he can be on penalties. However he has not scored in his last three against Burnley, who Liverpool face next and Sadio Mane has looked at peak condition with three goals in two starts.
Sadio Mane has scored in four of six appearances against Arsenal and he has also scored three times in his last three against Burnley, while I am also getting on before what could be an expected price rise if he overshadows Salah again this weekend. He is also my Captain choice as someone who could be involved in multiple goals against a weak looking Arsenal defence, although Raheem Sterling has proven me wrong to have him as Vice for two weeks in a row.
Raheem Sterling (VC): The Manchester City forward has seen his price rise in back to back weeks in the game and has scored in both Premier League games played. Has a winner at the Vitality Stadium under his belt once already and it's not the time to remove Sterling from any squad.
Bernardo Silva: Riyad Mahrez had a much bigger impact in his Premier League start than Bernardo Silva, but I think it says a lot that the latter started the 'bigger' game. His price has surprisingly dropped this week, but patience is a virtue and I am sticking with the Portuguese players who came on leaps and bounds last season.
Anthony Martial: I picked him at the start of the season with the belief that he would be the Number 9 for Manchester United in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's preferred system. The Frenchman has responded with a goal in each start and facing a Crystal Palace defence that has looked far from watertight through the first two weeks of the season.
Che Adams: The underlying statistics show Che Adams is not far away from opening his Premier League account, but I am keeping a watching brief on him. At some stage I would expect Ralph Hasenhuttl will take him out of the starting line up if he can't find a way to goal soon, but I would expect Adams to have chances to score in the final two games this month.
Bench: Michael McGovern (Norwich City backup to the backup GK), Caglar Soyuncu (a chance of a clean sheet and he has impressed so far, but I prefer picking the Sheffield United player who may offer a chance of goals), Joshua King (home game versus Manchester City is a tough place to make an impact), Xande Siva (injured, cheap back up to main squad at this stage of the season).
Harry Maguire: A home game against Crystal Palace was one of only two clean sheets for Manchester United at Old Trafford last season and the predominantly solid defending last week impressed me. Harry Maguire is also going to be a big target from set pieces so can always add to his points in the air.
Youri Tielemans: He hasn't had the impact I was hoping for, but Leicester City face Sheffield United and Bournemouth over the next two weeks and I will re-evaluate his position in my squad following the international break.
Sadio Mane (C): Mohamed Salah has scored in three of his four appearances against Arsenal so this may not be the best time to take the Egyptian out of the line up, especially as he can be on penalties. However he has not scored in his last three against Burnley, who Liverpool face next and Sadio Mane has looked at peak condition with three goals in two starts.
Sadio Mane has scored in four of six appearances against Arsenal and he has also scored three times in his last three against Burnley, while I am also getting on before what could be an expected price rise if he overshadows Salah again this weekend. He is also my Captain choice as someone who could be involved in multiple goals against a weak looking Arsenal defence, although Raheem Sterling has proven me wrong to have him as Vice for two weeks in a row.
Raheem Sterling (VC): The Manchester City forward has seen his price rise in back to back weeks in the game and has scored in both Premier League games played. Has a winner at the Vitality Stadium under his belt once already and it's not the time to remove Sterling from any squad.
Bernardo Silva: Riyad Mahrez had a much bigger impact in his Premier League start than Bernardo Silva, but I think it says a lot that the latter started the 'bigger' game. His price has surprisingly dropped this week, but patience is a virtue and I am sticking with the Portuguese players who came on leaps and bounds last season.
Anthony Martial: I picked him at the start of the season with the belief that he would be the Number 9 for Manchester United in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's preferred system. The Frenchman has responded with a goal in each start and facing a Crystal Palace defence that has looked far from watertight through the first two weeks of the season.
Che Adams: The underlying statistics show Che Adams is not far away from opening his Premier League account, but I am keeping a watching brief on him. At some stage I would expect Ralph Hasenhuttl will take him out of the starting line up if he can't find a way to goal soon, but I would expect Adams to have chances to score in the final two games this month.
Bench: Michael McGovern (Norwich City backup to the backup GK), Caglar Soyuncu (a chance of a clean sheet and he has impressed so far, but I prefer picking the Sheffield United player who may offer a chance of goals), Joshua King (home game versus Manchester City is a tough place to make an impact), Xande Siva (injured, cheap back up to main squad at this stage of the season).
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