The business end of the Indian Wells tournament has been reached as we are down to the Semi Finals in the Premier Event being played by the girls and we complete the Semi Final line up for the boys.
Two of the biggest names in the history of Tennis take to the court in the Masters event being played as both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are scheduled to go on Friday. Both are considered strong favourites to progress to a potential Semi Final meeting against each other on Saturday and that has to be the match the fans will be desperate to see.
While the majority of players may already have moved across to the East Coast in preparation for the tournament in Miami beginning in a few days time, I am concentrating on finishing this tournament off with a flourish and you can read the Friday selections below.
Bianca Andreescu v Elina Svitolina: The first of the WTA Semi Finals that have been put together features two players who have been in strong form in 2019 meeting.
The performances being produced by Elina Svitolina won't be a huge surprise considering she has been one of the top players on the WTA Tour for a couple of seasons now. Two Semi Final losses and one Quarter Final defeat would be considered strong returns by most players on the Tour, but for some Svitolina might still be considered an underachiever as she plays in her third Semi Final of 2019 on the hard courts and bids for her first Final of the season.
While any player that can put the wins together to reach the Semi Final has to be respected, Svitolina has not had an easy path through the draw. She has shown considerable resilience in winning three of her four matches in three sets and Svitolina has come from a set down in two of those wins which has to give her real confidence.
However the numbers have been far from dominating and the Svitolina serve has been attacked with some success by opponents. The Ukrainian has allowed at least nine break points in each of her matches so far at Indian Wells and the time she has spent on court in the last two Rounds has to be a concern even with the Thursday break from being on the court.
Now she faces the promising youngster Bianca Andreescu who at 18 years old is making hay on the main Tour in 2019. The Canadian turns 19 later this year, but she has showed plenty of maturity in her wins so far at Indian Wells including a stunning 52 minute win over Garbine Muguruza in the Quarter Final.
Strong performances behind the first serve and a successful return have propelled Andreescu through the draw and it will be hard to stop her if she can maintain the standards set. I do think she can drag Elina Svitolina into another battle and at that point Andreescu is going to go into this match with the superior fitness that can be relied upon down the stretch.
It is a big match for the youngster and that could lead to a tense performance, but she has shown plenty of belief in her own game. As long as Bianca Andreescu can stay in the moment, I think she may have a little more in the tank to beat Elina Svitolina in a tight match and backing her as the underdog is the pick here.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Karen Khachanov: I haven't backed Rafael Nadal so far this week, but that is going to change in the Quarter Final despite the Spaniard being asked to cover a big number against talented Karen Khachanov.
I've long felt the conditions in Indian Wells would the most perfect of the hard courts for Rafael Nadal and he is going for his fourth title here over the next few days. It is one of the slower hard courts on the Tour and Nadal does appreciate the bounce he gets off it and also the spin he can generate to put opponents in a tough position.
This match will be a test of the Nadal game as he has previously had a couple of tough matches against Karen Khachanov on the hard courts over the last nine months. One of those matches came at the Canadian Masters and the other at the US Open in 2018 and while Nadal has had strong serving numbers, he has not been able to get on top of the Khachanov serve as he would have liked.
In both matches Khachanov was able to play the big points very well which kept him competitive against Nadal and he is going to have to need to do the same in this Quarter Final on Friday. The 2019 performances have been decent from Khachanov, but he has been in stronger form here in Indian Wells and that has seen him improve his numbers both on the serve and return.
All of those aspects of the Khachanov game are going to be tested by Rafael Nadal who has been in elite form on the hard courts in 2019. He has been loving his time in Indian Wells where he has broken in 50% of return games played and Nadal's new service action has continued to be remarkably successful for the Spaniard.
It will be interesting to see how long Nadal can keep up the service numbers he is producing on this surface, but it certainly gives him a chance to win tournaments on the hard courts. He should believe the serve can give him a real chance to beat out Karen Khachanov who has struggled in his career when it comes to the return of serve against top 20 Ranked opponents on this surface, especially if Nadal is returning as effectively as he is.
There is no doubt this is a big number considering how close their two matches on the hard courts were last summer. However I think Nadal is playing at a very good level at the moment and his return can cause Khachanov enough problems to break down the youngster and move through to the Semi Final.
Belinda Bencic v Angelique Kerber: A tough Quarter Final match could have potentially taken something out of the legs for Belinda Bencic who had to battle hard physically and mentally to see off Karolina Pliskova. On another day it would have been a lot more comfortable, but Bencic was guilty of missing a host of break point chances in the second and third set which left the match on a knife edge until the very end.
Ultimately the 'Swiss Miss' continued her roll to move to 12-0 since the start of February and the confidence is flowing as she is could finish close to the top 10 in the World Rankings if she is able to add the Indian Wells tournament to the one she won in Dubai. It would be a deserved Ranking as Pliskova became the latest player currently in the top 10 of the World Rankings to be beaten by Bencic in the last month and now she has a chance to add yet another from that list to her vanquished list on Friday.
This time Bencic has to take on Angelique Kerber who saw off veteran Venus Williams in straight sets in her own Quarter Final on Thursday. It was another solid win for Kerber, although she may have to step up her game another level when taking on Bencic having had to dig in deep to come through a couple of tough matches already at the event.
The Kerber serve has been working well so far in the tournament which may be a surprise considering the slower conditions. However it is an important part of her game and gives the German confidence to go on the offensive on the return and winning just under 50% of return points will give you the chance to win most matches when serving competently.
I do think it is a different test for Kerber against Bencic though who has been returning wonderfully so far in the tournament. She has won a slightly higher percentage of return points at 51% and the Bencic first serve has been a key weapon for her.
A couple of disadvantages have to be overcome by Bencic and the main one is the time she spent on court on Thursday compared with Kerber. However in general she has not been leaving too much energy out there and I do think she is a worthy favourite in this match and one I am happy to back for a third time this week having gone 2-0 in Bencic matches so far.
I have a lot of time for Kerber too who beat Bencic at Wimbledon last year on her way to winning another Grand Slam, but playing top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts has been a challenge for her over the last twelve months. The three wins here have taken her above 0.500 for those matches at 14-13 in win-loss terms, but Kerber is now playing against someone in great form and she has not really been as dominant in these types of matches as she would like.
Belinda Bencic can be backed to win, although again I will go with a straight win and not worry too much about the manner of her win.
MY PICKS: Bianca Andreescu @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 24-19, + 7.10 Units (86 Units Staked, + 8.26% Yield)
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Friday, 15 March 2019
Thursday, 14 March 2019
Indian Wells Masters Day 9 Tennis Picks 2019 (March 14th)
Wednesday proved to be a much better day for the Tennis Picks which had been dented by a poor Tuesday and two winners from two selections at odds against will always be welcomed.
We are now down to the final four days at Indian Wells before we have a slight break between this tournament ending and the Miami Masters beginning next week.
On Day 9 at Indian Wells we have four Quarter Final matches to play with two coming from the ATP Masters event and the other two coming from the WTA Premier Event which has already produced one Semi Final. At this stage of the tournament there is more information as to what kind of level players are performing at in this specific event as well as their overall numbers and it is the time to bring in additional factors to the selections.
Either way I am looking to produce another couple of winners to keep this tournament rolling back towards a strong return for the event and adding to what has been a very good start to 2019 as we almost complete a third month of the season.
Dominic Thiem v Gael Monfils: Two players who have been getting stronger and stronger through their matches at Indian Wells are meeting in the Quarter Final of what has become a very open top half of the draw. Novak Djokovic's defeat means there is a real chance for one of the four remaining players in the top half to reach the Indian Wells Final and put some very strong Ranking points on the board.
I have to feel that both Dominic Thiem and Gael Monfils are feeling very good about their level heading into this Quarter Final. They have looked better and better in each passing match and that has seen them produce some stellar numbers at the tournament which have to be respected.
They have dropped one set between them so far through three matches won and the service numbers have sparked their success. Dominic Thiem has held 93% of his service games in the tournament, while Gael Monfils is up at 86% and those numbers have allowed them to get into their return games with confidence as they can take one or two chances knowing their own serves are not offering up a lot of opportunities for opponents to break.
Both players have faced just ten break points across three matches, but it is Monfils who has been producing the stronger return numbers which has contributed to him being the favourite here. The Frenchman has broken in 50% of return games here, while Thiem has broken in 35% of return games and that is where this match is going to be won and lost as far as I am concerned.
However, Thiem's numbers are strong enough to think the underdog can show some bite in this Quarter Final. I also think the 4-0 head to head in favour of the Austrian can play a part here even if Thiem and Monfils have not played each other in the last twelve months as those head to heads showed that Thiem seems to match up very well with this opponent.
These two players met twice on the hard courts between August 2016 and March 2017 and it was Thiem who won both matches. In those he had the stronger returning numbers by some margin and that includes a relatively straight-forward win over him here in Indian Wells two years ago.
I have to credit for Monfils for opening 2019 in stronger fashion than Thiem who had a surprisingly disappointing South American Golden Swing on the clay, but the match up intrigues me. While the Frenchman is playing as close to his best tennis as you could imagine, I think Thiem will have built some confidence through his three wins here and he can just edge out the serving battle on a surface and conditions that should be most to the Austrian's liking.
Belinda Bencic - 1.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: In the last couple of years we have had some new names winning Grand Slam titles on the WTA side of things including fresh, young faces kicking on overall on the Tour. The main name that stands out is Naomi Osaka, but Belinda Bencic may feel that only injuries have held her back from moving to the top of the women's game herself.
Back injuries and other physical ailments have prevented Bencic from building on entering the top 10 of the World Ranking as an 18 year old, but 2019 has begun in a manner much more to what is expected of the now 22 year old 'Swiss Miss'.
While the World Ranking says Bencic is not a top 20 player, her performances over the last month are propelling her up the standings at a rate of knots. Continue in this vain and she is going to crack her career best World Number 7 Ranking before too long and Bencic has been winning matches against some of the best players on the Tour.
Bencic won the title in Dubai and showed her resilience in beating four consecutive top 10 Ranked opponents to earn the title. Any drop off in Indian Wells has not been witnessed as Bencic cruised through the first couple of matches here and then crushed World Number 1 Naomi Osaka in the Fourth Round to reach the Quarter Final.
In the last month Bencic has beaten the World Numbers 1, 2, 4, 6 and 9 and on Thursday she takes on World Number 5 Karolina Pliskova who is enjoying a bounce back year on the hard courts. The Czech player has a title from the first week of the 2019 Tour and has reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open and her play has been steady so far this week to come through the draw.
The first serve has proven to be a huge weapon for Pliskova as expected, but she is also returning a little above her numbers for the 2019 in general. However it is the second serve that is likely to be attacked by Bencic who is not moving behind the baseline, but standing firm and competing with some of the biggest hitters on the WTA Tour.
Like Pliskova, Bencic is relying on strong numbers on the first serve to protect what has been a vulnerable second serve. She is returning even better than Pliskova though and I do think Bencic's ability to make enough balls back in play and counter attack with some strong groundstrokes is going to give her the slight edge in this first meeting between these two players.
The Swiss superstar is 11-0 since the beginning of February and her numbers have been strong. While she may need three sets to edge out Pliskova, Bencic can do enough to win this match.
I won't ask her to cover the small number because it wouldn't be a huge surprise if the set Pliskova wins is enough to get within the number with Bencic winning two tight sets. Belinda Bencic has beaten five of the current top 10 in the last month, but she would have only covered the 1.5 handicap set for this match on two occasions and so I will just look for the talented player to find a way to win this match however she can do it.
MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 23-19, + 5.60 Units (84 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)
We are now down to the final four days at Indian Wells before we have a slight break between this tournament ending and the Miami Masters beginning next week.
On Day 9 at Indian Wells we have four Quarter Final matches to play with two coming from the ATP Masters event and the other two coming from the WTA Premier Event which has already produced one Semi Final. At this stage of the tournament there is more information as to what kind of level players are performing at in this specific event as well as their overall numbers and it is the time to bring in additional factors to the selections.
Either way I am looking to produce another couple of winners to keep this tournament rolling back towards a strong return for the event and adding to what has been a very good start to 2019 as we almost complete a third month of the season.
Dominic Thiem v Gael Monfils: Two players who have been getting stronger and stronger through their matches at Indian Wells are meeting in the Quarter Final of what has become a very open top half of the draw. Novak Djokovic's defeat means there is a real chance for one of the four remaining players in the top half to reach the Indian Wells Final and put some very strong Ranking points on the board.
I have to feel that both Dominic Thiem and Gael Monfils are feeling very good about their level heading into this Quarter Final. They have looked better and better in each passing match and that has seen them produce some stellar numbers at the tournament which have to be respected.
They have dropped one set between them so far through three matches won and the service numbers have sparked their success. Dominic Thiem has held 93% of his service games in the tournament, while Gael Monfils is up at 86% and those numbers have allowed them to get into their return games with confidence as they can take one or two chances knowing their own serves are not offering up a lot of opportunities for opponents to break.
Both players have faced just ten break points across three matches, but it is Monfils who has been producing the stronger return numbers which has contributed to him being the favourite here. The Frenchman has broken in 50% of return games here, while Thiem has broken in 35% of return games and that is where this match is going to be won and lost as far as I am concerned.
However, Thiem's numbers are strong enough to think the underdog can show some bite in this Quarter Final. I also think the 4-0 head to head in favour of the Austrian can play a part here even if Thiem and Monfils have not played each other in the last twelve months as those head to heads showed that Thiem seems to match up very well with this opponent.
These two players met twice on the hard courts between August 2016 and March 2017 and it was Thiem who won both matches. In those he had the stronger returning numbers by some margin and that includes a relatively straight-forward win over him here in Indian Wells two years ago.
I have to credit for Monfils for opening 2019 in stronger fashion than Thiem who had a surprisingly disappointing South American Golden Swing on the clay, but the match up intrigues me. While the Frenchman is playing as close to his best tennis as you could imagine, I think Thiem will have built some confidence through his three wins here and he can just edge out the serving battle on a surface and conditions that should be most to the Austrian's liking.
Belinda Bencic - 1.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: In the last couple of years we have had some new names winning Grand Slam titles on the WTA side of things including fresh, young faces kicking on overall on the Tour. The main name that stands out is Naomi Osaka, but Belinda Bencic may feel that only injuries have held her back from moving to the top of the women's game herself.
Back injuries and other physical ailments have prevented Bencic from building on entering the top 10 of the World Ranking as an 18 year old, but 2019 has begun in a manner much more to what is expected of the now 22 year old 'Swiss Miss'.
While the World Ranking says Bencic is not a top 20 player, her performances over the last month are propelling her up the standings at a rate of knots. Continue in this vain and she is going to crack her career best World Number 7 Ranking before too long and Bencic has been winning matches against some of the best players on the Tour.
Bencic won the title in Dubai and showed her resilience in beating four consecutive top 10 Ranked opponents to earn the title. Any drop off in Indian Wells has not been witnessed as Bencic cruised through the first couple of matches here and then crushed World Number 1 Naomi Osaka in the Fourth Round to reach the Quarter Final.
In the last month Bencic has beaten the World Numbers 1, 2, 4, 6 and 9 and on Thursday she takes on World Number 5 Karolina Pliskova who is enjoying a bounce back year on the hard courts. The Czech player has a title from the first week of the 2019 Tour and has reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open and her play has been steady so far this week to come through the draw.
The first serve has proven to be a huge weapon for Pliskova as expected, but she is also returning a little above her numbers for the 2019 in general. However it is the second serve that is likely to be attacked by Bencic who is not moving behind the baseline, but standing firm and competing with some of the biggest hitters on the WTA Tour.
Like Pliskova, Bencic is relying on strong numbers on the first serve to protect what has been a vulnerable second serve. She is returning even better than Pliskova though and I do think Bencic's ability to make enough balls back in play and counter attack with some strong groundstrokes is going to give her the slight edge in this first meeting between these two players.
The Swiss superstar is 11-0 since the beginning of February and her numbers have been strong. While she may need three sets to edge out Pliskova, Bencic can do enough to win this match.
I won't ask her to cover the small number because it wouldn't be a huge surprise if the set Pliskova wins is enough to get within the number with Bencic winning two tight sets. Belinda Bencic has beaten five of the current top 10 in the last month, but she would have only covered the 1.5 handicap set for this match on two occasions and so I will just look for the talented player to find a way to win this match however she can do it.
MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 23-19, + 5.60 Units (84 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)
Wednesday, 13 March 2019
Indian Wells Masters Day 8 Tennis Picks 2019 (March 13th)
I won't lie, that is the kind of day I have experience picking matches at Indian Wells for a long time now.
You can't hide from the poor Picks, but when you can see the way others are about to fall down it doubles down on the pain of those poor selections.
Karolina Pliskova waiting until the cover could not be completed before going on and winning the next four games in a row to win the set was annoying.
But Venus Williams was up 5-2 in the first set and couldn't serve it out and also had a match point to earn the cover in the second set and still failed to get it done in what was a comfortable win for her on the day.
And then to really complete the saga it was Elina Svitolina missing what felt like multiple match points at different points of the second and third set which meant she also missed the cover by one game.
On one hand I say well done to the layers who got their marks down perfectly... But on the other I am hoping that kind of disappointing luck at those key moments swing back around for me.
So basically all the hard work done over the weekend has been erased by a miserable Tuesday, although I remain in a positive number for the tournament. It feels like it should be so much better considering I do think I read those three matches I've highlighted above perfectly, but we move on and look for better on Wednesday.
Karen Khachanov v John Isner: The conditions in Indian Wells are certainly not as quick as most of the other hard courts on the Tour, but these two players have monster shots which are going to give them the chance to run through some service games regardless.
2019 has perhaps not been as productive for John Isner as he would like in terms of the results he is putting together, but his numbers have remained strong. His serve is always going to be a shot that produces a very high number of holds, but Isner has been making use of the limited chances he gets to break serve and his break percentage numbers are higher than in previous seasons.
It is still not a number that leaps off the page at 13% on the hard courts, but that is enough when you are holding serve as convincingly as he has done for the most part in 2019. These numbers are certainly going to pose a test for Karen Khachanov who has been a little underwhelming in 2019 so far and who has gone 0-2 in matches on this surface against top 50 Ranked opponents.
The early numbers have taken a dip in both the serve and return aspects of Khachanov's game and it has left him vulnerable to a number of upsets already. However in this one is going to head into the match as the underdog and Khachanov should be confident he can be the one upsetting the odds when you think he has won all three previous matches against Isner.
Two of those were played on the hard courts last year when Khachanov allowed a total of just one break point to Isner across those matches. They did come in faster conditions than we will see in Indian Wells, but Khachanov also holds a clay court win over Isner from the French Open in 2017 and this is a match up he has enjoyed where so many others have not.
The young Russian has yet to be broken by Isner and he has found the two breaks of serve in the three matches which have proven to be decisive. John Isner has been in fine form in his two wins in Indian Wells to move through to the Fourth Round, but this has been a tough match up for him and it feels like another that is going to be decided by a point or two here and there.
Karen Khachanov's serving numbers against Isner could be vital even if the lottery of a tie-breaker is hard to judge and we could easily need a couple of those in this match. The fact he has never been broken by Isner will be on both player's minds at some point, especially if the match gets tight and I do think the underdog could be worth a play in this Fourth Round encounter.
I do think it will be another close match between these players, but Khachanov has made the big plays when the chances have come his way previously and the two wins should have him feeling good this week.
Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: There has been real signs that Philipp Kohlschreiber is a declining force on the ATP Tour, but the veteran still has the ability to put a really strong week together. That is exactly what he is doing in Indian Wells having beaten Acapulco Champion Nick Krygios and backing that up with an upset of the World Number 1 Novak Djokovic on his way through to the Fourth Round.
Once again Kohlschreiber is going to be an underdog as he faces Gael Monfils.
The enigmatic Frenchman seems to be knuckling down and looking to way winning tennis much more in 2019 than we have seen previously, although Monfils has regularly put together some solid weeks when it looks like he finally wants to win rather than entertain. He won the title in Rotterdam on the indoor hard courts and Monfils has continued to look focused on the court, while the match up with Kohlschreiber has proved to his liking in the past.
Gael Monfils leads the head to head with thirteen wins compared to two losses, while he has won all nine between them on the hard courts. His numbers have been significantly better than Kohlschreiber's and even though they have not played each other for over two years since the Australian Open, it is something that has to be factored in.
Coming off an emotional win is also tough for Kohlschreiber who had to play his Third Round match on Tuesday after poor weather prevented him and Djokovic playing more than one game on Monday. So while he has been out there toiling and earning his biggest win for some time, Gael Monfils would have been resting and I think that plays a part in this one too.
It has been a wonderful tournament for the German to this point and I do think Kohlschreiber will be dangerous, especially if he continues serving as well as he has. However Monfils has a strong break percentage against Kohlschreiber in their previous hard court matches and he is also in fine form in that aspect of his game in 2019 on the hard courts.
As long as Monfils can bring his usually decent serving to the court, I think he will have too much for Kohlschreiber and can beat him and cover the spread to reach the Quarter Final of yet another 2019 tournament.
MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov @ 2.30 William Hill (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 21-19, + 0.90 Units (80 Units Staked, + 1.13% Yield)
You can't hide from the poor Picks, but when you can see the way others are about to fall down it doubles down on the pain of those poor selections.
Karolina Pliskova waiting until the cover could not be completed before going on and winning the next four games in a row to win the set was annoying.
But Venus Williams was up 5-2 in the first set and couldn't serve it out and also had a match point to earn the cover in the second set and still failed to get it done in what was a comfortable win for her on the day.
And then to really complete the saga it was Elina Svitolina missing what felt like multiple match points at different points of the second and third set which meant she also missed the cover by one game.
On one hand I say well done to the layers who got their marks down perfectly... But on the other I am hoping that kind of disappointing luck at those key moments swing back around for me.
So basically all the hard work done over the weekend has been erased by a miserable Tuesday, although I remain in a positive number for the tournament. It feels like it should be so much better considering I do think I read those three matches I've highlighted above perfectly, but we move on and look for better on Wednesday.
Karen Khachanov v John Isner: The conditions in Indian Wells are certainly not as quick as most of the other hard courts on the Tour, but these two players have monster shots which are going to give them the chance to run through some service games regardless.
2019 has perhaps not been as productive for John Isner as he would like in terms of the results he is putting together, but his numbers have remained strong. His serve is always going to be a shot that produces a very high number of holds, but Isner has been making use of the limited chances he gets to break serve and his break percentage numbers are higher than in previous seasons.
It is still not a number that leaps off the page at 13% on the hard courts, but that is enough when you are holding serve as convincingly as he has done for the most part in 2019. These numbers are certainly going to pose a test for Karen Khachanov who has been a little underwhelming in 2019 so far and who has gone 0-2 in matches on this surface against top 50 Ranked opponents.
The early numbers have taken a dip in both the serve and return aspects of Khachanov's game and it has left him vulnerable to a number of upsets already. However in this one is going to head into the match as the underdog and Khachanov should be confident he can be the one upsetting the odds when you think he has won all three previous matches against Isner.
Two of those were played on the hard courts last year when Khachanov allowed a total of just one break point to Isner across those matches. They did come in faster conditions than we will see in Indian Wells, but Khachanov also holds a clay court win over Isner from the French Open in 2017 and this is a match up he has enjoyed where so many others have not.
The young Russian has yet to be broken by Isner and he has found the two breaks of serve in the three matches which have proven to be decisive. John Isner has been in fine form in his two wins in Indian Wells to move through to the Fourth Round, but this has been a tough match up for him and it feels like another that is going to be decided by a point or two here and there.
Karen Khachanov's serving numbers against Isner could be vital even if the lottery of a tie-breaker is hard to judge and we could easily need a couple of those in this match. The fact he has never been broken by Isner will be on both player's minds at some point, especially if the match gets tight and I do think the underdog could be worth a play in this Fourth Round encounter.
I do think it will be another close match between these players, but Khachanov has made the big plays when the chances have come his way previously and the two wins should have him feeling good this week.
Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: There has been real signs that Philipp Kohlschreiber is a declining force on the ATP Tour, but the veteran still has the ability to put a really strong week together. That is exactly what he is doing in Indian Wells having beaten Acapulco Champion Nick Krygios and backing that up with an upset of the World Number 1 Novak Djokovic on his way through to the Fourth Round.
Once again Kohlschreiber is going to be an underdog as he faces Gael Monfils.
The enigmatic Frenchman seems to be knuckling down and looking to way winning tennis much more in 2019 than we have seen previously, although Monfils has regularly put together some solid weeks when it looks like he finally wants to win rather than entertain. He won the title in Rotterdam on the indoor hard courts and Monfils has continued to look focused on the court, while the match up with Kohlschreiber has proved to his liking in the past.
Gael Monfils leads the head to head with thirteen wins compared to two losses, while he has won all nine between them on the hard courts. His numbers have been significantly better than Kohlschreiber's and even though they have not played each other for over two years since the Australian Open, it is something that has to be factored in.
Coming off an emotional win is also tough for Kohlschreiber who had to play his Third Round match on Tuesday after poor weather prevented him and Djokovic playing more than one game on Monday. So while he has been out there toiling and earning his biggest win for some time, Gael Monfils would have been resting and I think that plays a part in this one too.
It has been a wonderful tournament for the German to this point and I do think Kohlschreiber will be dangerous, especially if he continues serving as well as he has. However Monfils has a strong break percentage against Kohlschreiber in their previous hard court matches and he is also in fine form in that aspect of his game in 2019 on the hard courts.
As long as Monfils can bring his usually decent serving to the court, I think he will have too much for Kohlschreiber and can beat him and cover the spread to reach the Quarter Final of yet another 2019 tournament.
MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov @ 2.30 William Hill (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 21-19, + 0.90 Units (80 Units Staked, + 1.13% Yield)
Tuesday, 12 March 2019
Indian Wells Masters Day 7 Tennis Picks 2019 (March 12th)
More winners have been put into the books at Indian Wells on Monday and that is keeping the week moving in a positive direction.
On Tuesday the Third Round of the ATP Masters event is completed, while the entire Fourth Round of the WTA Premier Event is set to be played on one day. The temperatures look like they are going to take an upswing and that is going to change the conditions in Indian Wells for the players who have been used to playing in a much cooler environment.
It could have a real impact on how much the players are able to hit through the court in the days ahead and it is something to consider when you make you picks for the remainder of this tournament.
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: In each passing week you can see the improvement that Daniil Medvedev is making in his game and it is important for him to keep racking up the World Ranking points ahead of the clay court portion of the season. The young Russian player is yet to produce his best on the clay, but he can put himself into a position to be Ranked highly at the big events coming up which in turn should place him in a strong position to have a real go when it comes to Wimbledon and the US Open later this year.
He has reached a career high World Ranking last month and Medvedev is continuing to edge closer to a top ten Ranking for the first time, but this Third Round match should be a challenge for him. Injuries have hurt Filip Krajinovic over the last twelve months, but the Serbian is playing with real confidence at the moment and should offer up some real resistance to Medvedev.
It is never easy to face a Qualifier like Krajinovic who is very happy in the conditions, especially as he was also playing in the Challenger event held here last week. He has managed to put four wins on the board already at this Masters event which should see Krajinovic return to the top 100 in the Rankings, and he has produced back to back strong wins over top 50 Ranked opponents including another over David Goffin having already beaten the Belgian earlier this season.
Filip Krajinovic is producing some solid numbers and it is the return of serve which has proven to be very important for him. In each of the last four years he has shown improvement on the return and in 2019 he is breaking in just under 30% of the return games played on the hard courts which will give anyone a strong chance of putting a run of wins together.
You would imagine those numbers take a dent when playing the higher Ranked opponents, but that has not been the case and so Krajinovic has to be respected here.
However, Daniil Medvedev has been playing at a very high level and even a couple of back to back losses in Rotterdam and Dubai have not dented the numbers he is producing. His serve has remained strong with an almost 85% hold rate on the hard courts in both 2018 and so far in 2019, but Medvedev has upped the break percentage and that makes him a player that could take the next step in his career as he continues to improve.
It should prove to be the difference in this match too as Medvedev holds serve a little more regularly than Krajinovic and can actually match the return numbers that the latter has produced. This could be a rare hard court match with a few more breaks of serve between two ATP players as the slower conditions in Indian Wells does make it a little more difficult for the servers, but Medvedev should have the edge.
All credit to Krajinovic for putting the wins together, but the run could end here.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Denis Shapovalov: In recent years Marin Cilic has been one of the top players on the Tour and in the last couple of years he has come very close to adding to the US Open Grand Slam title he has won. A couple of Grand Slam Final defeats and deep runs in others have seen the Croatian come close to becoming a multiple time Grand Slam Champion, but 2019 has begun with a little more difficulty for him.
His numbers are down across the board in 2019 compared with 2018 heading into this Third Round match at Indian Wells, but Cilic remains a strong server and that does put pressure on opponents. There is a real will to win that still burns inside of Cilic and that is why he is still producing a winning record, but he could be more vulnerable in matches like this one than he has been in previous years.
The service numbers are slightly down on last season, but Cilic has still been holding at a strong rate and I think those will improve if he can get his returning back on track. While still winning plenty of points off the opponent's serve, Cilic has perhaps not been as clinical at finishing off the break points as he has been in previous years and I do think that is going to be something that can be worked out by the Croatian.
On Tuesday he faces the young star Denis Shapovalov although I think the Canadian is going to have to up his game if he is going to challenge someone as good as Cilic can be.
Denis Shapovalov has been in mixed form on the hard courts in 2019 and I do think that is something of a surprise as you would feel this is one of his better surfaces. The court in Indian Wells is arguably one of the tougher courts for Shapovalov to play on, but he did have a solid win over Steve Johnson in the Second Round which may give him a boost of confidence to take into this match.
His overall numbers on the hard courts have been solid in 2019, but Shapovalov has not really been able to pick it up when he has faced a top 50 Ranked opponent. Before this week he had lost all four matches in that situation and his service hold percentage drops from 83% down to 75%, while his break percentage falls from 19% to 15%.
Those numbers are not too dissimilar to his 2018 ones and I do think this is a tough match up for Shapovalov with Cilic's long levers meaning he can get a few more balls back in play than the youngster may think. When they met on an indoor hard court at the end of 2018 Cilic dominated on the return and I think he is going to have the edge in this one too.
I really thought he would have been a game bigger favourite on the handicap so I will back Cilic in this spot to move through to the Fourth Round.
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 games v Radu Albot: Any player who comes through the Qualifiers and can work their way to the Third Round in these ATP Masters events has to be respected, but Radu Albot's confidence may be even higher than those who have done that previously.
You would say the draw has been pretty kind to Albot so far this week, but it is up to players to take advantage and he has backed up what has been a strong 2019 so far. The Moldovan hit a career high World Ranking at the end of February which came about after he won the Delray Beach title, while Albot has already reached the Semi Final in Marseille.
Those wins have come in tournaments that have featured some big names and I do think Albot deserves the respect he is being given by the layers. The numbers are up on the serve and that has been important for Albot as it has given him a chance to put his decent returning skills to good use instead of trying to play catch up in matches.
However I do think you have to note the performances against the top 50 Ranked opponents even though Albot has a 3-2 record on the hard courts in those matches. His service numbers dip closer to his general numbers from previous seasons and Albot has not returned as effectively as he would have liked and I do think think both elements of his game will be tested by Kyle Edmund.
The British Number 1 took a few weeks off after the Australian Open as he was perhaps suffering with a knock or two that needed to be shaken off. A lack of competitive tennis would have been a concern going into the Indian Wells Masters, but a good decision to take in the Challenger event here last week has paid off with Edmund going on to win the title.
Confidence should not be a problem and that was evident in his Second Round match against Nicolas Jarry when Edmund dropped just two games on his way through to this match. Improving the return of serve is the key for Edmund if he is going to take the next step in his career, and so far he has been strong on that side of his game in 2019 although Edmund has yet to really play some of the top names on the Tour.
The serve could be a big weapon for Edmund and he has solid hold numbers over the last couple of years which I think can be used to pressure Albot in this Third Round match. It could open up some chances on the return, although I don't like dismissing Albot easily with the way he has been playing in the last six weeks.
However I do think Edmund is comfortable in the conditions and he has shown an ability to play on the slower surfaces which should not frustrate him in Indian Wells. The wind has died down somewhat from earlier this week and the temperatures should not be too bad, while the humidity is something Edmund has dealt with in his time here over the last couple of weeks.
It is going to be tight on the numbers, but I do think Edmund can keep his Indian Wells run going and just edge out Albot over the course of this match.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: I wanted to write very few words about this match rather than placing it in the 'MY PICKS' section below.
I know I've wrote about Roger Federer and not wanting to back him to cover at 4.5 games and higher because of a return game that has been lacking the kind of punch you would want, but coming down one game is more reasonable for him.
In that situation he might not have to break as many as three times as he may have to do for a 4.5 game handicap if the coin toss goes against him. Now it is a chance for Federer to cover with a single break of serve, especially against someone who is serving as big as Wawrinka has been in 2019.
The problem for Stan Wawrinka is the awful head to head with Federer on the hard courts while his own return of serve numbers have not really recovered to the level he had prior to his injury. A couple of loose service games, which can be a feature of a Wawrinka performance, may be enough for Federer to win and cover in this Third Round match and I think the former World Number 1 can do that.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: The first thing I have noticed about Anett Kontaveit this week is that she looks to be in about as good a physical shape as I remember. At first glance I didn't even recognise her and it could see Kontaveit become a player that begins to fulfil the obvious potential she has with a big game that can be tough for opponents to deal with when she is in form.
Inconsistencies need to be erased if Kontaveit is really going to get in amongst the very best players on the Tour, but she looks like being in a position to reach a new career high World Ranking at the end of Indian Wells. Putting another win on the board by upsetting Karolina Pliskova would almost certainly see her break inside the top 20 of the World Rankings but beating players already in those positions has not been something the Estonian has been able to do with any kind of regularity.
In very simple terms Kontaveit has not returned as well as she would have liked in those matches against the top players on the WTA Tour and it puts a lot of pressure on her to produce big serving days to stay competitive. The retirement of Anastasija Sevastova on Monday means Kontaveit is 4-7 in matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months, but the numbers indicate that the defeats have tended to be a little one-sided and the wins have been very tight.
Now she has to face Karolina Pliskova in the Fourth Round and this is a player that has enjoyed strong runs at Indian Wells in the last few years visiting. The Czech player has yet to go on and win the title, which would represent the biggest of her career, but Pliskova is going to be very difficult to stop this year as she has bounced back from an underwhelming 2018 on this surface.
A strong 15-3 record on the hard courts is impressive and the numbers have been good, although there is a slight concern about the fact that Pliskova has been involved in so many three set matches. While she has won a large majority of those, it is a tough way to continue to make a living and hope to win big titles.
It also makes it hard to really be confident in backing a player to cover more than a 2.5 game spread when they are being asked to win matches in the final set. However in this case I do think the Pliskova serve is going to be a huge weapon for her when you consider the problems Kontaveit has had in returning against top 20 Ranked players over the last twelve months.
If Pliskova can get enough first serves in play I do think it will be difficult for Kontaveit to really get her teeth into this match. It is especially tough if Pliskova can start to get a read on the Kontaveit serve and I think we will see the Czech player find a way to win a set with a couple of breaks of serve attached to it.
That could be enough for her to cover here and I will back her to do that against a player who has lost seven matches to top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts in the last twelve months. Six of those losses would have seen her fail to earn a cover with this start and I will look for the same to happen here.
Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Is this a passing of the torch moment between two players going in opposite directions as far as their careers go? That may be a touch harsh on 31 year old Angelique Kerber who has shown she can bounce back and win big titles even when off form and who is currently the defending Wimbledon Champion, but it does feel like Aryna Sabalenka is marching towards the top of the women's game.
There are some talented players ahead of the Belarusian in the Rankings and her window for success may not be that wide if she doesn't continue improving with some huge talents breaking through. Aryna Sabalenka went into the Australian Open as one of the favourites to win the title and was dismissed emphatically by one of those young talents, but she is young and looks to be improving all the time.
You can see those improvements from the numbers when you split up the last twelve months into three parts. Early on Sabalenka was not quite putting it all together, but by the back end of 2018 she was flying and has only seemingly gotten better in the first couple of months of 2019.
One concern for Sabalenka fans has to be the fact she has yet to beat a top 20 Ranked player on the hard courts in 2019 and the two losses suffered have seen her fall away after dropping tight opening sets. That indicates the first set in this Fourth Round match is going to be very important for the younger player just to make sure she keeps her belief going.
Angelique Kerber is a superb defender and she can frustrate Sabalenka in their first match against each other, although the German has looked far from assured herself. Her general numbers on the hard courts have actually been strong, but Kerber has struggled when the competition has ramped up and I think that could be the case again.
Where Sabalenka has a winning record against top 20 players she has faced on the hard courts over the last twelve months, Kerber is 3-6 in those matches. She has not returned nearly as well as she would have liked and is capable of and that has put pressure on Kerber whose own serve can be a vulnerability when she is facing these kinds of big hitters like Sabalenka.
At her best Kerber could frustrate the life out of Sabalenka with an ability to get plenty of returns in play and defend the big hitting groundstrokes. I just don't think we have seen enough of Kerber at her best in these big matches over a prolonged period now and I will look for Sabalenka to record her biggest win of 2019 by edging out Kerber over three sets.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Qiang Wang @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 19-12, + 11.08 Units (62 Units Staked, + 17.87% Yield)
On Tuesday the Third Round of the ATP Masters event is completed, while the entire Fourth Round of the WTA Premier Event is set to be played on one day. The temperatures look like they are going to take an upswing and that is going to change the conditions in Indian Wells for the players who have been used to playing in a much cooler environment.
It could have a real impact on how much the players are able to hit through the court in the days ahead and it is something to consider when you make you picks for the remainder of this tournament.
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: In each passing week you can see the improvement that Daniil Medvedev is making in his game and it is important for him to keep racking up the World Ranking points ahead of the clay court portion of the season. The young Russian player is yet to produce his best on the clay, but he can put himself into a position to be Ranked highly at the big events coming up which in turn should place him in a strong position to have a real go when it comes to Wimbledon and the US Open later this year.
He has reached a career high World Ranking last month and Medvedev is continuing to edge closer to a top ten Ranking for the first time, but this Third Round match should be a challenge for him. Injuries have hurt Filip Krajinovic over the last twelve months, but the Serbian is playing with real confidence at the moment and should offer up some real resistance to Medvedev.
It is never easy to face a Qualifier like Krajinovic who is very happy in the conditions, especially as he was also playing in the Challenger event held here last week. He has managed to put four wins on the board already at this Masters event which should see Krajinovic return to the top 100 in the Rankings, and he has produced back to back strong wins over top 50 Ranked opponents including another over David Goffin having already beaten the Belgian earlier this season.
Filip Krajinovic is producing some solid numbers and it is the return of serve which has proven to be very important for him. In each of the last four years he has shown improvement on the return and in 2019 he is breaking in just under 30% of the return games played on the hard courts which will give anyone a strong chance of putting a run of wins together.
You would imagine those numbers take a dent when playing the higher Ranked opponents, but that has not been the case and so Krajinovic has to be respected here.
However, Daniil Medvedev has been playing at a very high level and even a couple of back to back losses in Rotterdam and Dubai have not dented the numbers he is producing. His serve has remained strong with an almost 85% hold rate on the hard courts in both 2018 and so far in 2019, but Medvedev has upped the break percentage and that makes him a player that could take the next step in his career as he continues to improve.
It should prove to be the difference in this match too as Medvedev holds serve a little more regularly than Krajinovic and can actually match the return numbers that the latter has produced. This could be a rare hard court match with a few more breaks of serve between two ATP players as the slower conditions in Indian Wells does make it a little more difficult for the servers, but Medvedev should have the edge.
All credit to Krajinovic for putting the wins together, but the run could end here.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Denis Shapovalov: In recent years Marin Cilic has been one of the top players on the Tour and in the last couple of years he has come very close to adding to the US Open Grand Slam title he has won. A couple of Grand Slam Final defeats and deep runs in others have seen the Croatian come close to becoming a multiple time Grand Slam Champion, but 2019 has begun with a little more difficulty for him.
His numbers are down across the board in 2019 compared with 2018 heading into this Third Round match at Indian Wells, but Cilic remains a strong server and that does put pressure on opponents. There is a real will to win that still burns inside of Cilic and that is why he is still producing a winning record, but he could be more vulnerable in matches like this one than he has been in previous years.
The service numbers are slightly down on last season, but Cilic has still been holding at a strong rate and I think those will improve if he can get his returning back on track. While still winning plenty of points off the opponent's serve, Cilic has perhaps not been as clinical at finishing off the break points as he has been in previous years and I do think that is going to be something that can be worked out by the Croatian.
On Tuesday he faces the young star Denis Shapovalov although I think the Canadian is going to have to up his game if he is going to challenge someone as good as Cilic can be.
Denis Shapovalov has been in mixed form on the hard courts in 2019 and I do think that is something of a surprise as you would feel this is one of his better surfaces. The court in Indian Wells is arguably one of the tougher courts for Shapovalov to play on, but he did have a solid win over Steve Johnson in the Second Round which may give him a boost of confidence to take into this match.
His overall numbers on the hard courts have been solid in 2019, but Shapovalov has not really been able to pick it up when he has faced a top 50 Ranked opponent. Before this week he had lost all four matches in that situation and his service hold percentage drops from 83% down to 75%, while his break percentage falls from 19% to 15%.
Those numbers are not too dissimilar to his 2018 ones and I do think this is a tough match up for Shapovalov with Cilic's long levers meaning he can get a few more balls back in play than the youngster may think. When they met on an indoor hard court at the end of 2018 Cilic dominated on the return and I think he is going to have the edge in this one too.
I really thought he would have been a game bigger favourite on the handicap so I will back Cilic in this spot to move through to the Fourth Round.
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 games v Radu Albot: Any player who comes through the Qualifiers and can work their way to the Third Round in these ATP Masters events has to be respected, but Radu Albot's confidence may be even higher than those who have done that previously.
You would say the draw has been pretty kind to Albot so far this week, but it is up to players to take advantage and he has backed up what has been a strong 2019 so far. The Moldovan hit a career high World Ranking at the end of February which came about after he won the Delray Beach title, while Albot has already reached the Semi Final in Marseille.
Those wins have come in tournaments that have featured some big names and I do think Albot deserves the respect he is being given by the layers. The numbers are up on the serve and that has been important for Albot as it has given him a chance to put his decent returning skills to good use instead of trying to play catch up in matches.
However I do think you have to note the performances against the top 50 Ranked opponents even though Albot has a 3-2 record on the hard courts in those matches. His service numbers dip closer to his general numbers from previous seasons and Albot has not returned as effectively as he would have liked and I do think think both elements of his game will be tested by Kyle Edmund.
The British Number 1 took a few weeks off after the Australian Open as he was perhaps suffering with a knock or two that needed to be shaken off. A lack of competitive tennis would have been a concern going into the Indian Wells Masters, but a good decision to take in the Challenger event here last week has paid off with Edmund going on to win the title.
Confidence should not be a problem and that was evident in his Second Round match against Nicolas Jarry when Edmund dropped just two games on his way through to this match. Improving the return of serve is the key for Edmund if he is going to take the next step in his career, and so far he has been strong on that side of his game in 2019 although Edmund has yet to really play some of the top names on the Tour.
The serve could be a big weapon for Edmund and he has solid hold numbers over the last couple of years which I think can be used to pressure Albot in this Third Round match. It could open up some chances on the return, although I don't like dismissing Albot easily with the way he has been playing in the last six weeks.
However I do think Edmund is comfortable in the conditions and he has shown an ability to play on the slower surfaces which should not frustrate him in Indian Wells. The wind has died down somewhat from earlier this week and the temperatures should not be too bad, while the humidity is something Edmund has dealt with in his time here over the last couple of weeks.
It is going to be tight on the numbers, but I do think Edmund can keep his Indian Wells run going and just edge out Albot over the course of this match.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: I wanted to write very few words about this match rather than placing it in the 'MY PICKS' section below.
I know I've wrote about Roger Federer and not wanting to back him to cover at 4.5 games and higher because of a return game that has been lacking the kind of punch you would want, but coming down one game is more reasonable for him.
In that situation he might not have to break as many as three times as he may have to do for a 4.5 game handicap if the coin toss goes against him. Now it is a chance for Federer to cover with a single break of serve, especially against someone who is serving as big as Wawrinka has been in 2019.
The problem for Stan Wawrinka is the awful head to head with Federer on the hard courts while his own return of serve numbers have not really recovered to the level he had prior to his injury. A couple of loose service games, which can be a feature of a Wawrinka performance, may be enough for Federer to win and cover in this Third Round match and I think the former World Number 1 can do that.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: The first thing I have noticed about Anett Kontaveit this week is that she looks to be in about as good a physical shape as I remember. At first glance I didn't even recognise her and it could see Kontaveit become a player that begins to fulfil the obvious potential she has with a big game that can be tough for opponents to deal with when she is in form.
Inconsistencies need to be erased if Kontaveit is really going to get in amongst the very best players on the Tour, but she looks like being in a position to reach a new career high World Ranking at the end of Indian Wells. Putting another win on the board by upsetting Karolina Pliskova would almost certainly see her break inside the top 20 of the World Rankings but beating players already in those positions has not been something the Estonian has been able to do with any kind of regularity.
In very simple terms Kontaveit has not returned as well as she would have liked in those matches against the top players on the WTA Tour and it puts a lot of pressure on her to produce big serving days to stay competitive. The retirement of Anastasija Sevastova on Monday means Kontaveit is 4-7 in matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months, but the numbers indicate that the defeats have tended to be a little one-sided and the wins have been very tight.
Now she has to face Karolina Pliskova in the Fourth Round and this is a player that has enjoyed strong runs at Indian Wells in the last few years visiting. The Czech player has yet to go on and win the title, which would represent the biggest of her career, but Pliskova is going to be very difficult to stop this year as she has bounced back from an underwhelming 2018 on this surface.
A strong 15-3 record on the hard courts is impressive and the numbers have been good, although there is a slight concern about the fact that Pliskova has been involved in so many three set matches. While she has won a large majority of those, it is a tough way to continue to make a living and hope to win big titles.
It also makes it hard to really be confident in backing a player to cover more than a 2.5 game spread when they are being asked to win matches in the final set. However in this case I do think the Pliskova serve is going to be a huge weapon for her when you consider the problems Kontaveit has had in returning against top 20 Ranked players over the last twelve months.
If Pliskova can get enough first serves in play I do think it will be difficult for Kontaveit to really get her teeth into this match. It is especially tough if Pliskova can start to get a read on the Kontaveit serve and I think we will see the Czech player find a way to win a set with a couple of breaks of serve attached to it.
That could be enough for her to cover here and I will back her to do that against a player who has lost seven matches to top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts in the last twelve months. Six of those losses would have seen her fail to earn a cover with this start and I will look for the same to happen here.
Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Is this a passing of the torch moment between two players going in opposite directions as far as their careers go? That may be a touch harsh on 31 year old Angelique Kerber who has shown she can bounce back and win big titles even when off form and who is currently the defending Wimbledon Champion, but it does feel like Aryna Sabalenka is marching towards the top of the women's game.
There are some talented players ahead of the Belarusian in the Rankings and her window for success may not be that wide if she doesn't continue improving with some huge talents breaking through. Aryna Sabalenka went into the Australian Open as one of the favourites to win the title and was dismissed emphatically by one of those young talents, but she is young and looks to be improving all the time.
You can see those improvements from the numbers when you split up the last twelve months into three parts. Early on Sabalenka was not quite putting it all together, but by the back end of 2018 she was flying and has only seemingly gotten better in the first couple of months of 2019.
One concern for Sabalenka fans has to be the fact she has yet to beat a top 20 Ranked player on the hard courts in 2019 and the two losses suffered have seen her fall away after dropping tight opening sets. That indicates the first set in this Fourth Round match is going to be very important for the younger player just to make sure she keeps her belief going.
Angelique Kerber is a superb defender and she can frustrate Sabalenka in their first match against each other, although the German has looked far from assured herself. Her general numbers on the hard courts have actually been strong, but Kerber has struggled when the competition has ramped up and I think that could be the case again.
Where Sabalenka has a winning record against top 20 players she has faced on the hard courts over the last twelve months, Kerber is 3-6 in those matches. She has not returned nearly as well as she would have liked and is capable of and that has put pressure on Kerber whose own serve can be a vulnerability when she is facing these kinds of big hitters like Sabalenka.
At her best Kerber could frustrate the life out of Sabalenka with an ability to get plenty of returns in play and defend the big hitting groundstrokes. I just don't think we have seen enough of Kerber at her best in these big matches over a prolonged period now and I will look for Sabalenka to record her biggest win of 2019 by edging out Kerber over three sets.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Qiang Wang @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 19-12, + 11.08 Units (62 Units Staked, + 17.87% Yield)
Monday, 11 March 2019
Indian Wells Masters Day 6 Tennis Picks 2019 (March 11th)
The weekend was a solid one for the Tennis Picks from Indian Wells and I am hoping I can build on the momentum through the second half of the tournament as the first Masters/Premier Event of the season is wrapped up over the next few days.
There is still work to do to ensure a winning tournament and to add to the season totals, but it has been a positive Indian Wells for the most part in what has become a difficult portion of the season for me in previous years.
It has been far from plain-sailing this week, but the last couple of days have helped turn the corner in the manner I would have wanted and hopefully more is to come.
A busy Sunday means I could only write down the selections which you can see below.
From Tuesday onwards I should have the time to write out a few more words to breakdown my selections and the reasoning I have made them.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Felix Auger Aliassime - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 15-10, + 7.62 Units (50 Units Staked, + 15.24% Yield)
There is still work to do to ensure a winning tournament and to add to the season totals, but it has been a positive Indian Wells for the most part in what has become a difficult portion of the season for me in previous years.
It has been far from plain-sailing this week, but the last couple of days have helped turn the corner in the manner I would have wanted and hopefully more is to come.
A busy Sunday means I could only write down the selections which you can see below.
From Tuesday onwards I should have the time to write out a few more words to breakdown my selections and the reasoning I have made them.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Felix Auger Aliassime - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 15-10, + 7.62 Units (50 Units Staked, + 15.24% Yield)
Sunday, 10 March 2019
Indian Wells Masters Day 5 Tennis Picks 2019 (March 10th)
Saturday was a very strong day for the Tennis Picks as all four selections came back as winners.
It is a busy Sunday for me personally so I only have the chance to write my selections down without any analysis today. There are a few more than I had on Saturday, but I am hoping to keep the wins going through another day.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 12-8, + 5.60 Units (40 Units Staked, + 14% Yield)
It is a busy Sunday for me personally so I only have the chance to write my selections down without any analysis today. There are a few more than I had on Saturday, but I am hoping to keep the wins going through another day.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 12-8, + 5.60 Units (40 Units Staked, + 14% Yield)
Saturday, 9 March 2019
Indian Wells Masters Day 4 Tennis Picks 2019 (March 9th)
Up and down.
That is pretty much the way the first three days at the Indian Wells tournament have gone for the Tennis Picks as the conditions have been tough to deal with for the players.
It does mean a slight losing position for the week, but I've had much poorer starts in Indian Wells through the years and so I know it could have been a lot worse.
On Saturday we have the completion of the WTA Premier Event Second Round matches and the start of the ATP Masters Second Round. That means there are some top names taking to the courts during the day and the tournament will really feel like it is picking up the pace.
I don't have as many selections as on Friday, but you can read the Tennis Picks below.
Laslo Djere - 2.5 games v Guido Andreozzi: The hard courts might not be the favoured surface of either of these players who meet in the Second Round, but the match in front of them gives them a good chance to put some solid World Ranking points on the board.
Both Laslo Djere and Guido Andreozzi have been playing on the South American Golden Swing over the last month which won't surprise anyone who knows a thing about these two players. The move from the clay onto the hard courts is not the most testing and I do think both Djere and Andreozzi won't mind the speed of the court as one of the slower hard courts out there which will suit clay courters like these two.
Guido Andreozzi has already upset the odds by coming through his First Round match against Ilya Ivashka, but he will have to do the same if he is going to win this match.
The numbers on the hard courts are not that impressive from a player that doesn't play on this surface all that much, but Laslo Djere's are not jumping off the page either. The latter is perhaps someone who can hold onto serve with a little more consistency than Andreozzi, but the Argentinian has found his return to be a little more effective on the surface.
However confidence could be a factor and Djere should be full of it having had such a strong run on the clay courts in the last month. He won his first title ont the Tour and he is someone who has played at a higher level than Andreozzi for the most part and the confidence could be the difference maker on the day when the two players are matched up as closely as these two seem to be.
I do think a strong serving day from Djere could be the key reason he is able to come through this match and I will back him to win and cover.
MY PICKS: Laslo Djere - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 8-8, - 1.54 Units (32 Units Staked, - 4.81% Yield)
That is pretty much the way the first three days at the Indian Wells tournament have gone for the Tennis Picks as the conditions have been tough to deal with for the players.
It does mean a slight losing position for the week, but I've had much poorer starts in Indian Wells through the years and so I know it could have been a lot worse.
On Saturday we have the completion of the WTA Premier Event Second Round matches and the start of the ATP Masters Second Round. That means there are some top names taking to the courts during the day and the tournament will really feel like it is picking up the pace.
I don't have as many selections as on Friday, but you can read the Tennis Picks below.
Laslo Djere - 2.5 games v Guido Andreozzi: The hard courts might not be the favoured surface of either of these players who meet in the Second Round, but the match in front of them gives them a good chance to put some solid World Ranking points on the board.
Both Laslo Djere and Guido Andreozzi have been playing on the South American Golden Swing over the last month which won't surprise anyone who knows a thing about these two players. The move from the clay onto the hard courts is not the most testing and I do think both Djere and Andreozzi won't mind the speed of the court as one of the slower hard courts out there which will suit clay courters like these two.
Guido Andreozzi has already upset the odds by coming through his First Round match against Ilya Ivashka, but he will have to do the same if he is going to win this match.
The numbers on the hard courts are not that impressive from a player that doesn't play on this surface all that much, but Laslo Djere's are not jumping off the page either. The latter is perhaps someone who can hold onto serve with a little more consistency than Andreozzi, but the Argentinian has found his return to be a little more effective on the surface.
However confidence could be a factor and Djere should be full of it having had such a strong run on the clay courts in the last month. He won his first title ont the Tour and he is someone who has played at a higher level than Andreozzi for the most part and the confidence could be the difference maker on the day when the two players are matched up as closely as these two seem to be.
I do think a strong serving day from Djere could be the key reason he is able to come through this match and I will back him to win and cover.
MY PICKS: Laslo Djere - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 8-8, - 1.54 Units (32 Units Staked, - 4.81% Yield)
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