Boxing Picks 2019- James DeGale v Chris Eubank Jr (February 23rd)

The last Boxing Picks of 2018 took place in early December after I returned from Los Angeles and the amazing Deontay Wilder versus Tyson Fury event and the year ended with a small profit.

I still wanted to sit down and think about how I could improve as I didn't pick as many winners as I would have liked and that would have made a huge difference to the overall numbers. Of course you can never be unhappy if you end with a winning number at the end of the day, but evolving and working out ways to improve is paramount to long-term success.

With that in mind I always felt I was going to sit out the first couple of months of the 2019 year even though there were a couple of fights that really intrigued me. The Manny Pacquiao UD over Adrien Broner was one I was keen on, but I also thought Keith Thurman would return with a real statement win and that was far from the case.

January and early February had some other decent fights too and I have been settling down and enjoying the events as they have been put on. However my feeling has been that the James DeGale versus Chris Eubank Jr card from the O2 Arena in London was going to be the one in which I made my first selections from the 2019 year.

I feel this is the start of a number of weeks where we see some huge names coming out to their first bouts of the year, although the excitement levels of late December 2018 to enter 2019 have diminished some.

You may ask why and the answer is simple- the fights that were expected to be made in the first half of the 2019 year have just not materialised at the time of writing. The main one is of course the rematch between Wilder and Fury, but I am convinced the Tyson Fury deal with ESPN means both will go a different direction before meeting up later in the year instead of the April or May dates we thought.

Tyson Fury deserves the deal and the exposure he is going to get, but you can't help feel disappointed if the rematch does not happen in 2019 and at the moment we really don't know what is happening even if my feeling is that it will be put together.


At the same time Anthony Joshua has scrapped the long held Wembley date on April 13th and instead heads to New York City to take on Jarrell Miller on June 1st. That has left Dillian Whyte without a dance partner after a fantastic 2018 and I do feel sorry for a fighter that has long deserved a shot at the World Title but yet feels as far away from that as ever.

Lower down we are yet to see what Gennady Golovkin has planned, but the fight between Danny Jacobs and Canelo Alvarez is about as good as you could want in the Middleweight Division.

Another fight that hasn't come to fruition like expected is the Amir Khan versus Kell Brook domestic grudge bout- instead Khan decided to head to America to challenge Terence Crawford and Brook looks to be going the same way.

The World Boxing Super Series has been a revelation over the last eighteen months, but even that tournament has had financial issues attached and all in all 2019 has yet to open with the kind of bang that 2018 delivered.


It is also something of a downtime for the UK fans- most of the big names are heading to the States, including Anthony Crolla, while the cards scheduled for this side of the pond have yet to really ignite for the fans. This weekend's at the O2 Arena may be about as good as it gets, but that is yet to sell out and there is very few cards coming up that really gets the blood rushing.

The best of the lot has to be Josh Taylor's World Title bid on May 18th in the World Boxing Super Series which also has Naoya Inoue attached to it, but the tournament isn't exactly prospering and who knows if that actually takes place?

For those watching on television there are plenty of fights to enjoy, but the UK being the heart of boxing like some many promoters have stated just doesn't feel the case at the moment.


This week we do have a good card in London and it should be a fun night especially the main event which looks a good one on paper. The fights will go on through the night as Anthony Dirrell looks to pick up a World Title again, while Brandon Rios headlines a card in Mexico too, but the main fight I am looking forward to is the one between James DeGale and Chris Eubank Jr.

Joe Joyce vs Bermane Stiverne

The main support to the top of the bill is the Heavyweight return of Joe Joyce who is back in the United Kingdom and back in a Boxing ring for the first time since early December. The British fighter has built a decent reputation in the United States where he has based himself in the last few months and this is seen as another step in his development which is being accelerated because Joyce decided to turn pro after he had already turned 30 years old.

There had been some talk of Joe Joyce taking on Luis Ortiz, but his trainer Abel Sanchez decided it would be better for more experience to be earned.

Instead the attention has turned to Bermane Stiverne who is a former World Champion, but someone who has not had many fights since losing the WBC belt to Deontay Wilder. That defeat on a Unanimous Decision came in January 2015 and Stiverne has only been out twice since then with the most recent of those being in the First Round blow out that Wilder handed to him in November 2017.

Now Stiverne has hit 40 years old and his best days look way behind him. A win would bring him back into World Title contention with the WBA attaching a 'Golden Belt' to this fight which means the winner will be in line to take on Regular Champion Manual Charr and then perhaps become the mandatory for a shot at Anthony Joshua.

However this feels like a crossing of the paths kind of fight where Joe Joyce is on an upward climb to the top of the mountain and Stiverne is on the way down.

The fight has been selected for Joyce to make a statement by cruising past a former World Champion and I am not sure Stiverne has the kind of punch resistance he will need to make this a long, tough night for the British fighter. The long fight with Wilder which ended on points seems to have taken something from Stiverne who was knocked down in the First Round of his comeback bout after losing to Wilder the first time before the WBC Champion crushed him in the rematch.

This is the eighth pro fight for Joe Joyce and he has won all seven by stoppage. Only two of the previous seven fighters facing Joyce have gotten out of the Second Round and I think he will give the home fans something to smile about with a big early finish in this one too. The talk is already about Joyce being back out in May so he won't want to spend too long in this one as people look to compare how he handles Stiverne compared with Wilder's last win over the Haitian.

It is unlikely it will be quicker than the Wilder finish, but I don't think Joyce will need to be working Overtime to get paid. Backing Joyce to finish this in the first three Rounds at odds against looks a very good price and I think he can be backed to get the fight concluded in those Rounds.

James DeGale vs Chris Eubank Jr

I'll admit that when this fight was first rumoured for the end of 2018 I wasn't that interested in seeing it, but since the announcement was made that James DeGale and Chris Eubank Jr will be getting in the ring with one another in February I have slowly begun to become more and more intrigued by it.

I do think it is always a different feel when two British fighters with a bit of needle between them face off and the Super Middleweight Division has given us some very good domestic bouts over the years.

Much is on the line for both DeGale and Eubank Jr, although I do think it is a more important fight for the former to show he still has something in the tank. At the back end of last year DeGale decided to give up the IBF World Title he had won back from Caleb Truax and it was a decision made to chase the big fights with the most financial rewards even though DeGale won't be bringing a belt to the table.

Beating Eubank Jr opens up the possibility of a huge fight with Callum Smith who is considered the best Super Middleweight in the world after winning the World Boxing Super Series last October. Billy Joe Saunders is another who has moved up to the 168 pound Division and he could have a WBO World Title behind him, but those doors will shut for DeGale if he loses this one.

It has to worry me that he has used 'retirement' in the build up to the fight because no Boxer can really think that way and then motivate themselves to push themselves as hard as possible in the gym. The irritation of Eubank Jr should focus DeGale to give whatever he has left and I am still not convinced that Eubank Jr is able to put his best together in these big fights.

Twelve months ago Eubank Jr was a pretty strong favourite to beat George Groves in the World Boxing Super Series, but he struggled in the step up like he did against Billy Joe Saunders. Things have changed with an official trainer brought in, but Eubank Jr has to humble himself to listen to instructions if he is going to win this one.

I can see the fight developing like the Groves-Eubank Jr fight from last year. I expect DeGale to be able to outbox Eubank Jr during the first Six or Seven Rounds, but I also hope to see more from the former World Champion than what he was able to produce in his two fights with Truax, while DeGale can't afford to take as much time off in the latter Rounds as he has tended to do throughout his career.

I think a leopard can't really change its spots though and I think DeGale will drop some of the later Rounds to Eubank Jr due to conserving energy and perhaps not moving around the ring and boxing like he should do earlier in the fight. However DeGale has shown he can rally late to win a couple of Rounds to make the difference and I believe the fight goes something like that and sees the Olympic Gold Medal winner coming through with a tight Decision win.

You do have to wonder how much DeGale has left in the tank and he has been in a number of tough fights in a row when it has begun to look like he is not the same fighter as he once was. Of course you're going to hear great things coming from DeGale himself about how he feels, but we heard the same from David Haye prior to both fights with Tony Bellew and you can't take a fighter at face value when those statements are made.

However I still think DeGale should be technically too good for Eubank Jr and if he boxes like he can and is not dragged into a scrap I would favour the naturally bigger man to find a way to get this done. Stopping Eubank Jr is close to impossible at the moment, but DeGale can win this one on the cards and I will back him to show there is still one more huge night in him by beating this rival and perhaps sending Eubank Jr down to Middleweight to fight at a more natural weight for himself.

Anthony Dirrell vs Avni Yildirim

David Benavidez was stripped of the WBC Super Middleweight Title and the organisation quickly decided they would crown the winner of the Anthony Dirrell and Avni Yildirim bout as the Champion.

This was one of the fights showcased by the Premier Boxing Champions promotion and it is no surprise that Dirrell is the favourite.

Anthony Dirrell is a former WBC Super Middleweight Champion who lost his belt in a Majority Decision to Badou Jack after holding onto it for nine months. He always felt he should have gotten a rematch, but Dirrell has managed to win all five fights he has had since April 2015 with the most notable being a very early stoppage of Caleb Truax.

It can be said that he has not been as active as you may have wanted him with this being his first fight in ten months, while I always have concerns when boxers are talking about life after they hang up the gloves. Does that mean Dirrell is as focused on this fight as he should be or is it one last payday before heading off into the sunset?

Personally I think Dirrell is not going to go on for much longer than this year, but he can have at least one major fight later in 2019 by getting past Avni Yildirim.

The Turkish fighter is perhaps most well known for being beaten by Chris Eubank Jr in their World Boxing Super Series Quarter Final, but he has rebuilt from that Knock Out defeat. Since then Yildirim has won five fights in a row although his quality of wins are questionable with the best one being a Majority Decision over 46 year old Lolenga Mock back in September.

Even then it is something of a surprise that he is Ranked as highly in the WBC to earn the chance to fight for a vacant Title. Avni Yildirim is pretty basic with his movements and I do think if Anthony Dirrell has anything left in the tank this is a fight he should win quite comfortably.

A Division that is a popular one is not exactly blessed with a lot of talent at the moment, but it is top loaded and the winner of this bout could have a very big Unification fight to come later this year. I still think Dirrell is going to have too much for a pretty predictable fighter and I believe he will stop Yildirim at some point.

Anthony Dirrell has some decent pop and I think he will be able to time Yildirim onto something like Eubank Jr did and that should set up the American for at least one more big fight down the line.

Brandon Rios vs Humberto Soto

The main event in Tijuana on Saturday evening sees two veteran fighters in what should be a crossroads fight. The losing fighter won't really have a lot of avenues to tread to get back into contention at this stage of their careers, but the winner could at least set themselves up for one more big opportunity.

Brandon Rios is always a joy to watch for the fans, but he has been involved in plenty of wars which makes him an old 32 years. He has been stopped in two of his last four fights, but he has bounced back from those defeats to Timothy Bradley and Danny Garcia to stop the next opponent he has faced.

The last time we saw Rios he was walking down and breaking down Ramon Alvarez and he will be looking to do the same here against an opponent who should have the majority of the support.

Humberto Soto is going to be involved in his eightieth fight on Saturday evening and at 38 years old he has to be feeling it these days. Soto is on a run of three wins in a row and he has proven to be a tough out with only two stoppages on his record and the last one of those was back in 2012 since when Soto has lost just one fight on a Decision.

I am fully expecting these two proud warriors to give as good as they get and it should be a fan friendly fight, but a tough one for the two men sharing the ring. My feeling is that Brandon Rios might be the harder puncher and is perhaps going to be in a position where he wears down Soto over eight or nine Rounds like he did to Alvarez back in November.

I do think Rios has seen something taken away from him by the difficult fights he has been involved in, but he might just get himself another big bout in the months ahead by working his way past Soto. There is no way this Mexican warrior Soto is going to want to do anything but go out on his shield in this fight, but at some point the age should catch up with him and his corner or the referee may step in to save him and I will have a small interest in Rios winning this fight in the second half of the contest.

MY PICKS: Joe Joyce to Win Between 1-3 @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)

James DeGale to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Anthony Dirrell to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brandon Rios to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2018: + 5.14 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.23% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2019 (February 23-24)

The Premier League is back this weekend which also means the return of Fantasy Football which we will get to below.

This weekend is also the set for the League Cup Final as the first domestic silverware of the season is competed for by Manchester City and Chelsea. The former are still very much in with a chance of winning all four trophies they are competing for, while the latter may have a big decision to make about Maurizio Sarri sooner rather than later.


Below you will be able to read my selections from the weekend fixtures in the Premier League and League Cup Final, but I will also continue to highlight the top two potential stars from a Fantasy perspective from each game.

I have written before that I intended to just fine tune the way I prepare the Fantasy Picks from each Game Week and I have decided I will offer the three best players at two different values going forward. For goalkeepers that may only be a couple of players, but I have decided to split between the two best 'cheap' options and the two best 'pricey' options because it is clearly important in the official Fantasy game to have a blend of players and their values spread across your team.

No one can pick four top defenders and add the likes of Mo Salah, Eden Hazard, Raheem Sterling, Harry Kane and Sergio Aguero to one team without going over the limit so by offering up three players per position at a high/low price bracket will at least give the reader some options to play with. This is still a work in progress as to how to offer this advice the best so keep that in mind too if changes are made to the approach in the weeks ahead.

The next two rounds of Fantasy deadlines are both coming on a midweek day with this week's being a Friday and next week's being a Tuesday so this thread will be posted on my Twitter page twice on those days and with at least a couple of hours before the deadline (as far as I can make possible).

Then we will be back to the 11:30am deadline for the Saturday 2nd March round of fixtures which means that thread for those games will be out several hours before giving more time to those who wish to take on board any advice written out.

Remember this week it is a 6:45pm Friday deadline with two Premier League games to be played that evening.


Cardiff City v Watford Pick: The Premier League had a two week break thanks to the FA Cup Fifth Round which was scheduled for last weekend, but teams will have to be ready for three League games to be played over a ten day period beginning on Friday.

There is a huge game being played in Cardiff on Saturday when England visit Wales in the Six Nations Rugby and that has meant Cardiff City were asked to play Watford on Friday evening.

Neil Warnock will be very pleased with the way his players have reacted to the Emiliano Sala situation as Cardiff City have won back to back Premier League games, but the off field stories about the whole Sala deal has to be having a negative impact somewhere. The manager has to make sure the players who are not coping with the situation are perhaps not used so much until they are ready to fight for the club, and so far Warnock has managed that very well.

Home advantage is going to be huge for Cardiff City if they are going to upset the odds and remain a Premier League club at the conclusion of this season. They have what many would consider to be 4 winnable games left at home and I would imagine Cardiff City need to target at least 10 points from those games which could mean they need just a couple of away wins to maintain their top flight status.

First up is Watford and Cardiff City may be facing them at the wrong time with Javi Gracia's men in a strong run of form and off a confidence boosting FA Cup Fifth Round win to take them one game away from Wembley Stadium. The Hornets have lost 1 of their last 10 overall and just 1 of their last 9 away from home in all competitions and Watford have plenty of goals in the side which makes them dangerous.

However I do think Cardiff City are an appealing home underdog this weekend.

They have won 4 of their last 7 Premier League games at home and the 2 defeats suffered in that time have come against Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur who are both in the top four at this time. In that run Cardiff City have beaten Brighton, Wolves, Southampton and Bournemouth and they will feel they have enough determination to find a way to break down this tough Watford team.

You can support Cardiff City with a start on the Asian Handicap which will produce a positive return as long as they don't lose and I think that is the best way to approach this fixture. As difficult as it has been to beat Watford in recent weeks, they are a side who have won 1 of their last 4 away Premier League games and I think Cardiff City can avoid a defeat at home at the very worst.

Fantasy Star: Neil Etheridge- The goalkeeper has been huge for Cardiff City and is something of a penalty saving specialist. If they are going to get something here, Etheridge may need to be at his best.

Alternative: Ben Foster- the same can be said for Watford as I did for Cardiff City. Ben Foster has been huge in goal for The Hornets and a key reason for the success Watford have been having and could have a big say in where the points end up in this Friday night fixture.


West Ham United v Fulham Pick: The first televised game from the Premier League this weekend is a London derby between clubs from the East and West of the city.

A few weeks ago when the match was selected the feeling was that Fulham would be searching for the points to take them out of the bottom three, but instead they have begun to be cut off from those teams above them. An 8 point gap has developed between Fulham in 19th place and Cardiff City in 17th and you have to think another defeat may almost be curtains for the club in their bid to avoid the drop back into the Championship.

It is a big ask for Fulham to put a run of wins together like they need when you think of the amount of goals they are conceding and the struggles for a consistent threat in the final third. That really is a terrible combination for any club to have and Fulham have been miserable away from home.

Fulham have lost 10 of their last 11 away games in all competitions and they have conceded at least twice in 9 of those games as they have dug themselves into a big hole.

The only saving grace for Fulham this week is they are visiting a West Ham United team who can be streaky and who have not won any of their last 5 in all competitions. The home form has been better for West Ham United, but 1 win in 4 Premier League games does not make for very good reading if you are backing a team at odds on to win a game of football.

In reality I can't see beyond a West Ham United win as they look to have talent in the final third that will surely get some big chances to score goals against this porous Fulham defence. They have already won 0-2 at Craven Cottage in the Premier League this season and West Ham United should find the spaces to continue Fulham's poor defensive trend away from home.

Backing West Ham United to win a game which features two or more goals is my pick from this live fixture as The Hammers place another nail in the Fulham coffin as far as survival in the top flight goes.

Fantasy Star: Marko Arnautovic- the Austrian has had a couple of weeks to rest his injury which has prevented too much action in a month when it looked like he would be leaving. Marko Arnautovic should have plenty of chances against a porous Fulham defence.

Alternative: Felipe Anderson- as with Arnautovic, I expect West Ham United to create chances against Fulham and Felipe Anderson is an integral part of their attacking threat.


Burnley v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The Saturday lunchtime live offering from the Premier League comes from Turf Moor and both Burnley and Tottenham Hotspur will be feeling good about how this season could go for them in the remaining months of the campaign. They have both had a number of days to rest and recover in time for another Premier League push over the next three weeks and I think the players in both dressing rooms will be confident in earning a big win in this one.

Burnley have really turned a corner in their form after what had been a poor opening to the season as they struggled to match the kind of performances they produced in 2017/18. That poor form saw them drop into the bottom three, but 15 points from a possible 21 has seen them climb 3 points clear of the relegation zone and they look like a club that has gone back to the basics that had made them successful last year.

This is a big test for them as they host Tottenham Hotspur who can put themselves firmly into the Premier League title mix if they can win here on Saturday. Despite injuries to key players, Mauricio Pochettino has been extracting some top performances from his squad and that has seen them win 4 League games in a row and also beat Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League.

However it has to be noted that Tottenham Hotspur have played plenty of their recent games at Wembley Stadium. In fact all of their games this month have been played at the national Stadium so this is a different test for the players.

Tottenham Hotspur have won 4 away League games in a row though and Harry Kane could have recovered in time to at least be in the match day squad which will be a huge boost for his team-mates. All season Spurs have been very good away from home with 11 League wins from 13 away games and they have also won on their last couple of visits to Turf Moor.

I do think Burnley will test Tottenham Hotspur in the form they are in and this will be far from an easy game for Spurs, but the team look to be in good shape at the moment. Even without Dele Alli and Kane they have found goals in the squad and I think Tottenham Hotspur will edge to a win here despite Burnley looking like they will play their part in an intriguing fixture.

My feeling is that Spurs will need at least two goals to win here and I am going to back them to win a tough fixture that features at least two goals on the day.

Fantasy Star: Heung-Min Son- Harry Kane could be back to lead the line, but Tottenham Hotspur have not missed their talisman as much as expected thanks to Heung-Min Son and he can continue his goal-scoring form here.

Alternative: Ashley Barnes- Tottenham Hotspur are on a good run, but they have not always looked secure defensively. Ashley Barnes has three goals in a row for Burnley and may have one or two opportunities to add to that here.


Bournemouth v Wolves Pick: It would be a big surprise if we don't get to see some good looking football when Bournemouth take on Wolves at the Vitality Stadium on Saturday.

Both managers like their team to get forward and attack and the conditions should be conducive to that style being played. When they met at Molineux earlier this season a deluge of rain made it a little more difficult for both clubs to produce their best, but Saturday looks like being a fine day to play football and I think both Bournemouth and Wolves will entertain.

The absence of both David Brooks and Callum Wilson is a real blow for Bournemouth though and if Junior Stanislas is also ruled out it could be very difficult for the home team to blend their attacks together as they can do at their best. Even with that in mind, I do expect Bournemouth to have their successes as they have been much stronger at home than on their travels and Eddie Howe will expect his players to cause Wolves a few problems.

Nuno Espirito Santo knows what to expect from his Wolves players though and they showed great heart to come through a very difficult second half in beating Bristol City in the FA Cup Fifth Round last Sunday. Wolves have been a revelation in the Premier League with pleasing football leading to goals and solid results throughout the campaign.

They are not quite prolific yet, but that will be the next step in the evolution of a football club that is making some big investments to close the gap to the top six. Wolves look the best of the rest already, and in recent weeks they have begun to put a few more goals together which is going to give them the edge here as far as I am concerned.

Wolves have scored 17 goals in their last 7 games in all competitions since losing 3-0 at Manchester City, while 9 of their 14 away goals in the Premier League have come in their last 5 on their travels. Those signs are very positive for Wolves who want to finish at least 7th in the Premier League table this season and they may have too many goals for Bournemouth missing key attacking players.

I still think the home team will have chances simply because of the way they approach games, while they have been better at home anyway.

I have been torn between recommending at least three goals to be shared out and backing Wolves on the Asian Handicap which returns the stake in the event of a draw and my feeling is that the former will need to happen to make the latter a winner. Bournemouth can produce plenty of chances at home when they are on form and they should be well prepared having had two weeks since their last Premier League game and I think both teams will likely score once here but neither manager is one that settles for a draw.

At odds against backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the call.

Fantasy Star: Raul Jimenez- I can't look beyond the Mexican striker who has led the Wolves line brilliantly and should have chances to get on the scoresheet here.

Alternative: Joshua King- Bournemouth have injuries up front, but Joshua King is still available and Eddie Howe's attacking style should mean chances come his way.


Newcastle United v Huddersfield Town Pick: With the way the season has panned out for Huddersfield Town I would expect almost every team they play to be odds on favourites to beat them between now and May 12th when the final round of Premier League fixtures are scheduled to be played.

Keeping that in mind, I am not surprised to see Newcastle United as clear favourites to win this one but my one nagging doubt about the home team is that are not exactly blessed with a lot of goals. The situation is also different for Newcastle United as they will be expected to get forward and score goals unlike some of their recent games when they were considerable underdogs against Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Wolves and Rafael Benitez could set them up to be hard to beat as they tried to nick points.

It is not in the style of the manager to really get after opponents, but Newcastle United did crush Cardiff City 3-0 here last month and they are playing a goal-shy Huddersfield Town team that have barely threatened.

A new manager with a similar plan to the previous one means Huddersfield Town are still pretty predictable in what they are trying to do and so I think Benitez will have prepared his team very well for this fixture. Newcastle United have managed to beat Huddersfield Town twice in a row in the Premier League by the same 1-0 scoreline and my feeling is that they have a striker in Solomon Rondon who could make the slight difference on the day that can turn a draw into a win.

It won't be easy for Newcastle United because they don't score a lot of goals and one for Huddersfield Town may be enough to steal something. However the home team have won back to back Premier League games here and I think they can make it a hat-trick as I simply look for the home team to earn a victory by hook or by crook on the day.

Fantasy Star: Solomon Rondon- his goals could keep Newcastle United in the Premier League and he is the main threat for the home team against a poor travelling Huddersfield Town.

Alternative: Jamaal Lascelles- can be a threat from set pieces and must have a very good chance of securing a clean sheet.


Leicester City v Crystal Palace Pick: This is not an easy fixture to get a good read of considering both Leicester City and Crystal Palace are going to want to try and play in a similar manner. I think both would be happy to let the other come onto them and then spring with pacy forward players who will look to expose the spaces left behind and it might develop into something of a game of chess between the managers.

The pressure is on Claude Puel to be a little more proactive in this one as the Leicester City players and fans continue to tire of the manager. However you would feel that would play into the hands of Crystal Palace who have scored at least twice in recent visits to Manchester City, Wolves and Liverpool before a 1-1 draw at Southampton in Premier League games.

Wilfried Zaha is back and along with Andros Townsend, Michy Batshuayi and Christian Beneteke this Crystal Palace have some teeth going forward. They have certainly matched up well with Leicester City having won 3 Premier League games in a row against them and I am a little surprised by how short the home team are to win this one.

Leicester City have lost 3 games in a row at home to Cardiff City, ten man Southampton and Manchester United and they are not scoring a lot of goals here. The feeling is that one goal for Crystal Palace could be enough to at least avoid defeat and I think backing the visitors on the Asian Handicap is the way to go.

Before the 1-1 draw at Southampton, Crystal Palace had scored two or more goals in 4 away Premier League games in a row and I will look for The Eagles to earn a positive result to move a little clearer of the drop zone. It will have people once again questioning the future of Claude Puel, but Crystal Palace look the right side to be behind in this one.

Fantasy Star: Andros Townsend- Crystal Palace will be a threat on the break and Andros Townsend has two goals in his last four away starts in the Premier League.

Alternative: Wilfried Zaha- he is back from suspension and Crystal Palace have more threats in the final third which could mean more space for Wilfried Zaha.


Arsenal v Southampton Pick: The top four and the bottom three positions in the Premier League will be affected by the result that comes out of the Arsenal versus Southampton game this weekend.

It is a Premier League game that both clubs will look at and see the chance of a potential result, but I really do think Arsenal are deserved favourites. They might be a little inconsistent at the moment, but in general Arsenal have managed to put their best performances and results together at the Emirates Stadium and I think home comforts will suit them again this weekend.

Southampton have not been an easy touch under Ralph Hasenhuttl, but the manager has to be fuming that he has overseen both League defeats to Cardiff City. Those six points lost to the Welsh club are the reason that Southampton are in the bottom three and a point behind Cardiff City, but there has been enough in the performances to think Southampton will work their way out of trouble.

Under the Austrian's guidance, Southampton have earned a goalless draw at Stamford Bridge and won at the King Power Stadium so they won't be intimidated by playing here.

However I think Arsenal seem to thrive going forward at home and they have scored plenty of goals during a run where they have won 8 of their last 10 games here. That includes 6 straight Premier League wins at the Emirates Stadium and 4 of those wins have come by two or more goals.

I expect that to be the outcome on Sunday as Arsenal keep the pressure on the top four places ahead of a very important March where they will face two of the four teams currently above them in the League table.

Fantasy Star: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang- is due a goal and has scored plenty at the Emirates Stadium in recent weeks.

Alternative: Sead Kolasinac- I don't know why he was not starting against BATE Borisov during the week, but I would expect the left wing back to be restored for this one. Always in with a chance of an assist or two in the system.


Manchester United v Liverpool Pick: Make no mistake about it- Manchester United versus Liverpool is still the first pair of games I look out for whenever the new season's fixture list is published and this remains the ultimate rivalry game for both clubs.

There is plenty on the line on Sunday just over two months since they met in the Premier League at Anfield as both Manchester United and Liverpool have so much to gain by winning this fixture.

For Liverpool it is simply one of the last really big hurdles in front of them as they look to win their first English title since 1990 which is a remarkable length of time for a club of this size to have not been crowned Champions. They have had a couple of really good chances to snap that in recent years, but some will argue this is their best chance with the destiny of the title firmly in their hands.

Manchester United have a lot more than simply playing spoiler to aim for themselves- finishing in the top four is the ambition and currently United are just a point clear of Arsenal and Chelsea for the final Champions League spot in what is surely going to be a battle until the very end of the season.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will make sure the home players know how much it will mean to the fans to have a measure of revenge for the awful defeat at Anfield which was Jose Mourinho's final game as manager of Manchester United. So much has improved in terms of atmosphere around the club since then and even the 0-2 home loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League has not lingered after United saw off Chelsea in the FA Cup at Stamford Bridge on Monday evening.

The home team look to be in very good form going into this fixture, but Liverpool have just stumbled of late despite a 6 game unbeaten run in all competitions. 4 of those games have ended in draws as they have allowed Manchester City to close what was once a 7 point gap between the clubs and Liverpool will be under some real pressure to make a statement on Sunday.

I have to say I was very surprised to see Liverpool priced up as favourites and that may have plenty to do with the injuries Manchester United are dealing with in forward areas. Virgil Van Dijk is back from a European suspension, but Liverpool have not been at their flowing best going forward and the defence has been a little creaky of late so there is a real opportunity for Manchester United.

Manchester United have not been at their best at home in the last couple of games, but they have a decent recent record at Old Trafford against Liverpool. There will be plenty of tension around with both sets of players and fans recognising what is on the line here, but I think Manchester United might be in the better overall form.

If they can defend as well as they did at Arsenal and Chelsea in wins over those clubs, I do think Manchester United can contain the front three of Liverpool to some extent. They are also playing with a positive attitude which will test Liverpool's defensive resolve and I am going to back Manchester United with the start on the Asian Handicap to avoid a defeat here.

My feeling is that Manchester United can make a mockery of being the home underdog and I would not be surprised if the injuries to Jesse Lingard and Anthony Martial have been overplayed and one, or both, are involved here. Liverpool have not scored more than once in any of their last 4 away games in all competitions and that may not be enough to win here so backing the home underdog with a start looks the right play for me.

Fantasy Star: Paul Pogba- been in magnificent form under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and the key to all of Manchester United's hopes in this one.

Alternative: Virgil Van Dijk- he was missing on Tuesday evening, but is a key figure for Liverpool at the heart of their defence. If Liverpool are to win at Old Trafford, Van Dijk has to have a huge game containing Marcus Rashford and the runs of Pogba through the middle.


Chelsea v Manchester City Pick: The first English domestic trophy of the 2018/19 season will be handed out on Sunday afternoon when Chelsea face Manchester City at Wembley Stadium.

History could be made by Manchester City who have never retained a trophy but have the chance to do that with a League Cup success having beaten Arsenal 3-0 in the Final last season. This will also represent the chance to win the League Cup for the third time in four years and it is going to take a brave person to oppose Manchester City considering what they did to Chelsea earlier this month.

The 6-0 home win will have given the Manchester City players huge belief and it also has to worry Chelsea manager Maurizio Sarri who has overseen some real collapses over the last three weeks. A heavy loss to Bournemouth and a defeat to Manchester United in the FA Cup when Chelsea looked lost after falling behind means Sarri will be under pressure to do something different to avoid another collapse against Manchester City.

However it has to be said that Sarri seems a stubborn manager who is willing to take the pain now if it means his players will improve for the future. That means he won't move too far away from the system he feels he wants to enforce onto the club and I think that will play into the hands of Manchester City.

Pep Guardiola's men are scoring plenty of goals and while he will deny it, I do think there is a real mental edge for Manchester City after beating Chelsea so convincingly at home. I don't think they will match the six goals scored in that win, but I do think Manchester City will have too much for Chelsea and they will be difficult to peg back if they go in front when you see how short of confidence the Chelsea players seem to be.

Earlier this month I thought Manchester City would be too good for Chelsea and could win by a couple of goals if they scored the first goal and nothing has changed in the last two weeks. Last season Manchester City beat Arsenal 3-0 in the League Cup Final and I think they are going to be comfortable winners on Sunday against another London club this weekend too as the first of a potential four trophies is taken home.

Fantasy Football Advice

So this is where I am going to list up to three players from each position and with two price options who can make a difference in your Fantasy Teams this week. I'll note the split for each position and they could be players that potentially open up more funds or those you can use additional funds you've got in the bank on.

Goalkeeper 4.8 million or Above

Kasper Schmeichel (Leicester City- 5 million): Leicester City have a very good run of games coming up and Schmeichel is a guaranteed starter assuming he is not being punished for comments father Peter made about Claude Puel two weeks ago. He could be kept in the squad for the foreseeable future barring injury.

Martin Dubravka (Newcastle United- 5 million): Next two games are at home to Huddersfield Town and Burnley with West Ham United, Everton and Bournemouth to follow. Cheaper than keepers from the big six and bound to start even after his cock up against Wolves.

Goalkeeper 4.7 million or Below

Rui Patricio (Wolves- 4.5 million): That's a great price to get involved with the Wolves defence, although they don't keep as many clean sheets as you would perhaps assume. Tough game this weekend, but a nice set of fixtures to come when points could be racked up.

Artur Boruc (Bournemouth- 4 million): If you want to invest heavily elsewhere a current starter for 4 million can't really be ignored. Bournemouth are not the best defensively, but could be an option to free up funds.

Defender 5 million and Above

Sead Kolasinac (Arsenal- 5.1 million): Granted this is a lot to spend on a player whose team don't defend very well, but there is a real attacking threat offered by Sead Kolasinac and Arsenal do have a couple of games in which they can at least come close to a clean sheet.

Patrick van Aanholt (Crystal Palace- 5.4 million): He hasn't scored as many goals as he usually can, but Crystal Palace could be a much more balanced attacking threat with their new additions. That could help Patrick van Aanholt to get forward and be involved in assists, while defensively Crystal Palace look pretty good in recent games.

Defender 4.9 million and Below

Jamaal Lascelles (Newcastle United- 4.6 million): I mentioned him in as my Alternative in the Fantasy Star portion for the Newcastle United game this weekend. Cheaper option than Dubravka if you want to get behind Rafael Benitez and The Magpies defence.

Declan Rice (West Ham United- 4.5 million): Plays in midfield but listed as a defender and has been a threat from set pieces in recent games. Scored against Arsenal at home and should have done the same against Liverpool.

Jonny Otto (Wolves- 4.3 million): Matt Doherty is a doubt this weekend so Wolves may focus their attacking threat from the other wing back. Jonny Otto has not been as productive as Doherty but can cause problems getting forward and might be ready for a run of assists and goals.

Midfielder 6.6 million and Above

Heung-Min Son (Tottenham Hotspur- 9 milion): Everyone is on board with the South Korean who has been in fine form and may be leading the line for Tottenham Hotspur again despite Harry Kane almost being ready to return. His price is only going one way at the moment so might be the last chance where he is still value to pick up.

Paul Pogba (Man United- 8.8 million): Not much you can say about Paul Pogba and the form he is in. Might be another whose price is beyond the reach of many if he has another big week. I bought him for 7.8 million in the game in the match week Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took over so a million pound rise in just over two months for the Frenchman. However he is pivotal to the team and still a decent pick up.

Felipe Anderson (West Ham United- 7.2 million): Could be the key man for West Ham United who should have plenty of chances against a Fulham defence that can't, ummm, defend.

Midfielder 6.5 million and Below

Alex Iwobi (Arsenal- 5.4 million): He is still very inconsistent, but Iwobi is playing in the front three/four for Arsenal and they have been a real threat at home against teams lower down the Premier League table.

Leander Dendoncker (Wolves- 4.3 million): He has earned his place in the starting line up in recent weeks and Dendoncker is not being held back to solely protect in the Wolves team. A cheap option who will start and could be much better than the price-tag indicates.

Forward 6.5 million and Above

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal- 11.1 million): It is a big price, but may be a real option for those who have Sergio Aguero or who are waiting for Harry Kane to return to action. Has scored four goals in last three home Premier League games for Arsenal.

Raul Jimenez (Wolves- 6.8 million): He has been my personal signing of the season in terms of value for money. In recent weeks Raul Jimenez has begun adding more goals to the assists and he should have chances this week to improve on both at Bournemouth.

Forward 6.4 million and Below

Solomon Rondon (Newcastle United- 5.8 million): The main threat for Newcastle United who should lead the line against a Huddersfield Town team heading for the Championship. No need to replace him during the week when Newcastle face Burnley here too.

Joshua King (Bournemouth- 6.4 million): The main man up front with all the injuries at the club and should be involved in a potentially high-scoring game against Wolves on Saturday.

Ashley Barnes (Burnley- 5.8 million): Another cheap option to free up funds in other areas and has scored in three games in a row for Burnley. They don't get many penalties but Barnes is on duty for those too.

MY PICKS: Cardiff City + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor
West Ham United & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.25 Ladbrokes
Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes
Bournemouth-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook
Newcastle United @ 1.85 Bet Fred
Crystal Palace + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet Victor
Manchester United + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor
Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor
Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 22nd)

It has been the most difficult week of the 2019 season for the Tennis Picks and I do think Friday is going to be a pivotal moment for how this one is going to go.

Another poor day will likely mean I am going to give the weekend matches a miss and look to go again with the tournaments to be played next week. One of those will actually begin on Sunday as the ATP Dubai event gets underway, and there are a number of big events being played over the next few days before we enter March and the back to back Masters events to come in North America.


The Friday matches that are selected for the Tennis Picks will be added to this thread and I have been a little disappointed I have not been able to write out full analysis for those selections this week. The one thing I can say is that I have had the strong look into the matches that I have picked even if I am not quite been at the standards set for 2019.

However it was very, very, very unlikely that I would have a positive week for every week during the long Tennis season so you have to take the rough with the smooth. That doesn't mean this week is definitely ending with a negative record, and I fully expect to end the week with some positive results, but I am not going to get too down on myself for what has been a poor few days.


Any selections from the ATP Rio and ATP Delray Beach tournaments will be added to this thread on Friday.


MY PICKS: Mikhail Kukushkin @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-7, - 7.76 Units (22 Units Staked, - 35.27% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 20th)

Being out on Monday night meant I was not able to look through the Tuesday Tennis matches being played around the five tournaments taking place this week.

Rain in Rio de Janeiro means that tournament was slightly behind the schedule and they are likely to still be playing catch up on Wednesday. I will add any Picks from that tournament and Delray Beach to this thread during the day, but for now I will place my selections from the WTA Dubai below.

There was nothing that stood out in the ATP Marseille tournament matches scheduled for the day, but better options may come later this week.


This week has been a mixed bag of results for the Tennis Picks, but I am on the wrong side of the number so far. A couple of my selections never came close to being winners which is a bit of a shame, but there is time to get things turned around with plenty of matches to be played the rest of this week.


MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-4, - 3.36 Units (14 Units Staked, - 24% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (February 19-21)

The Champions League opening games might have been good ones for the neutral, but it wasn't much fun for Manchester United fans after suffering a home loss to Paris Saint-Germain that puts them firmly behind the black ball as far as progressing to the Quarter Finals goes.

That's something that will be revisited next month when United head to Paris and try and overturn the big advantage Paris Saint-Germain have built up, but the French Champions have had some memorable Champions League collapses before so you just never know.


This week it is the turn of the two biggest United rivals to get on with the opening of their Last 16 Champions League ties, while both Arsenal and Chelsea aim to put themselves into the hat for the Europa League Last 16 draw which takes place on Friday. Even though Arsenal were beaten in the First Leg, I would expect both of those clubs to find their way through to the next Round in what may soon become their best pathway back into the Champions League much like it was for Manchester United in the 2016/17 season.


The Premier League is going to be back this weekend, but fixtures begin on Friday so the Fantasy Football thread with the weekend selections will be ready to go around six hours before the FPL deadline on the day.


Liverpool v Bayern Munich Pick: The Champions League Last 16 draw has pitted together three ties involving English Premier League clubs taking on Bundesliga representatives and this is the second of those three ties.

Last week Tottenham Hotspur weathered an early Borussia Dortmund storm and then cruised into a 3-0 lead against the Bundesliga leaders, but Dortmund might just be going through a sticky patch. That isn't the case as much for Bayern Munich who have been scoring goals and producing plenty of wins to close the gap on the leaders in Germany and also give themselves real momentum going into the First Leg of this Second Round tie.

They face a rested Liverpool team whose primary focus may be winning the Premier League title, but who showed they are a dangerous Champions League team on their run to the Final last season. While some would suggest Liverpool ignore all Cup competitions and solely focus on the League, Jurgen Klopp won't want to lose to a team from the Bundesliga and Liverpool should have had ample time to prepare for this tie.

The absence of Virgil Van Dijk is a real blow for Liverpool considering the strength he has helped impose at the back. That may leave them vulnerable to Bayern Munich's attacking play, but I also think Liverpool have players in the final third that will scare the Bavarian giants and who have to be respected.

Bayern Munich have scored plenty of goals and have a long unbeaten run away from home in the Champions League. In their 8 games unbeaten, Bayern Munich have scored in each one and also beaten the likes of Sevilla and drawn at Real Madrid in a game they could have easily won on another day.

It makes me believe they can play their part in this First Leg, but my lean has been to Liverpool to have a lead to take to Germany next month. Liverpool have won 8 of their last 10 home Champions League games including the last 5 in a row, and one of the exceptions was a goalless draw with Porto in this Round twelve months ago after Liverpool had crushed them in Portugal.

Liverpool score plenty of goals at home in the Champions League and I think they edge out a high-scoring game which leaves the Second Leg with all to play for. The best play on the day may be backing Liverpool to win the First Leg in which both teams hit the net and that has to be worth a small interest.


Lyon v Barcelona Pick: A few days ago the layers were thinking about giving Lyon a full goal head-start on the Asian Handicap for this Last 16 First Leg tie and I would have been very keen to select the French side as the right play in this fixture.

Things have just changed slightly so while Lyon are getting a start, they are not getting the full goal which means a one goal loss would see half the stake refunded and the other half settled as a loser.

It worries me slightly, but I really do think Lyon have the talent and the confidence to earn a positive result in the First Leg of this Champions League tie, although Barcelona should be too strong over two Legs.

Lyon's recent home form in the Champions League is a worry with a single win from 10 games they have hosted in this competition, but only Juventus have managed to win from the last 6 visitors. Manchester City had massive problems dealing with Lyon in the Group Stage and I do think the confidence of the talented players the French side have can at least put Barcelona under pressure here.

They are also facing a Barcelona team who had won 1 of 7 away Champions League games prior to this season, although they did beat Tottenham Hotspur and PSV Eindhoven on their travels in the Group. The win over PSV was a narrow one though and Barcelona are a team that are vulnerable away from the Nou Camp and I do think Lyon can take advantage of a team that has not been in the best form of late.

Lyon have drawn with Manchester City and beaten Paris Saint-Germain here and scored twice in both games. If they reach that number again I don't think they lose and I am not always convinced about Barcelona away from home despite the obvious talent they have.

Barcelona would likely be very happy with a score draw here and I will select Lyon with the start to get something from the First Leg.


Atletico Madrid v Juventus Pick: Out of all the Last 16 ties in the Champions League I do think the Atletico Madrid versus Juventus one is the toughest to call.

Both teams will play with a similar ambition in this one with neither wanting to give too much away and hoping for magic from their forward players.

Cristiano Ronaldo returns to Madrid for the first time since leaving Real Madrid and I am sure he is going to get a very 'warm' reception from the Atletico fans. He has provided the magic moments to help beat Atletico Madrid a number of times in the Champions League during his time with Real Madrid and looks to be the main Juventus threat on the pitch.

Antoine Griezmann will be looking to spark Atletico Madrid who would love to be playing the Champions League Final in their home Stadium in June.

Neither team has been in outstanding form which does make this tie that much tougher to call, although my lean is that home advantage in the Second Leg will be the critical factor and give Juventus the chance to edge through to the Quarter Final.

First they have to concentrate on this Leg and Juventus have been very good away from home in the Champions League in the last twelve months. During that time they have won at Tottenham Hotspur, Real Madrid, Valencia and Manchester United and so you have to think that Juventus will be feeling good about their chances here.

However Atletico Madrid have a very strong home record with 8 straight home European wins including beating the likes of Roma and Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League. I really am having a hard time separating the teams and this is a tie that could be decided by an outstanding piece of skill to break down two organised defences.

I don't think either will want to give too much away in the First Leg though and backing a draw might be worth a small interest on the day.


Schalke v Manchester City Pick: At this moment the layers are taking no chances with the Manchester City prices to win games of football and that has seen them being asked to cover some big handicaps as short priced favourites.

A week ago Manchester City were the favourites to win here, but they have seen that price shrink after resting key players in the win over Newport County on Saturday. All of those big names are expected back in the Champions League and you can't really argue that the expectation is that Manchester City are going to win this First Leg simply on current form.

Schalke have played better at home, but they are a team struggling in the Bundesliga and the style of play should work to Manchester City's advantage. The home team will know their best chance of upsetting the favourites in this tie is by winning the Home Leg and that should leave spaces for the speed of Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane to expose.

Manchester City have already won in Hoffenheim in the Group and I suggest this task is perhaps a slightly more 'easier' one for them as long as they focus. You have to respect every team when they are hosting the fixture, but Manchester City have the talent edge and I can see them opening up Schalke whenever the Bundesliga club come forward.

Schalke have lost 3 of their last 4 home games against Premier League opposition all 3 losses came by two or more goals. They have lost 6 home Bundesliga games and 4 of those have come by at least two goal margins, while Manchester City have won 5 of their last 8 away Champions League fixtures and 4 of those have come by two or more goals.

I can't see beyond a Manchester City win here and I think they will do it with room to spare and make the Second Leg little more than a formality to progress to the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Liverpool Win & Both Teams to Score @ 3.75 Bet Victor
Lyon + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365
Atletico Madrid-Juventus Draw @ 3.10 Bet Victor
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 18th)

I've had a few things to do on Sunday which means I have not had the time to write down my analysis for the Tennis Picks from the matches to be played on Monday.

It is a pretty busy day in Dubai where a large majority of the First Round matches are set to be played, but the three ATP events will really get going on Tuesday with the smaller draws being used in those events compared with the WTA Dubai tournament.


MY PICKS: Mikhail Kukushkin - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.04 Units (6 Units Staked, + 17.33% Yield)

Seasons 2019: + 48.54 Units (331 Units Staked, + 14.66% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 17th)

Saturday proved to be a pretty disappointing day, but the week was still another good one which has added to a very good 2019 so far.

The Finals in Rotterdam, New York and Buenos Aires are all going to be played on Sunday, but I haven't found a selection with my leans going with Gael Monfils and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman. However neither overly convinces me and I think it is better to put this week in the books and get ready for what is going to be another very busy week with five tournaments to be played over the next eight days compared with the four that were scheduled for this past week.

On Sunday the WTA event in Dubai begins with a number of First Round matches set to be played. I have three selections which I am going to place in the 'MY PICKS' section below and those results will be recorded in the new weekly totals.

In the next thread on Monday I will update the season totals and I will have a fuller post with a few of the Picks having the analysis to go with the selections.


MY PICKS: Aliaksandra Sasnovich - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-10, + 9.82 Units (52 Units Staked, + 18.88% Yield)