The final round of Premier League fixtures prior to Christmas are played over a three day period this weekend and there are some big matches to come.
My personal focus over the last week was concluding up at work until the New Year, but more importantly was the big news coming out of Old Trafford. I am going to write my latest 'United Corner' about the events at Manchester United over the last couple of days and I want that posted either Saturday morning or Sunday morning which is looking more likely.
I've just needed a few days to digest the way things have gone for my club and what lies ahead after the draw for the Champions League Last 16 was made earlier this week- honestly that feels like it was made months ago because of the Tuesday morning breaking news and even the football this weekend is taking second spot to everything happening at Manchester United.
I didn't post a thread for the Weekend Football games last week as I had a very busy final full week at work. In this thread I will have also have a look at the Fantasy players who could be making an impact over the three days this weekend and remember that is an early deadline this week.
Wolves v Liverpool Pick: In the last few weeks there have been a number of times that Liverpool have had to play catch up to Manchester City, but the players have been able to deal with the pressure and the wins have kept coming. This time Liverpool have a chance to get on the field first and create a gap between themselves and the defending Champions, but it won't be a walkover when they visit Wolves in the live Friday night offering from the Premier League.
A couple of weeks ago Wolves fans may have approached the fixture with some trepidation as their team had seemingly lost form and were struggling for results. Things look much better off the back of 3 straight Premier League wins though and Wolves will know they have pushed some of the best teams in the Premier League already this season.
In fact Liverpool will be the last of the six clubs ahead of Wolves in the League table that Nuno Espirito Santo's men will face in the 2018/19 season. So far Wolves have drawn with both Manchester clubs and Arsenal, while beating Chelsea and giving Tottenham Hotspur a torrid time in a narrow defeat to them here.
They have shown they can clearly step up their level when playing the better teams in the Premier League and most importantly Wolves are not afraid to take them on. Against Manchester City they were willing to press the ball and Wolves will likely look to do the same against Liverpool and try and expose what could be a soft underbelly considering the injuries Jurgen Klopp's team have at the back.
Both teams have been able to score in every Wolves game against the other top six clubs this season and I expect that could happen here too. Wolves will give it a go against Liverpool and have quality players in the final third who can make key passes and show composure in front of goal.
It is also hard to see how Wolves keep Liverpool out considering the latter have scored ten goals in their last 3 away Premier League games and Wolves have only kept one clean sheet against teams in the current top ten with Liverpool the one they have yet to play.
The last couple of Wolves games here against Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea have both seen at least three goals shared out and I think that will be the case on Friday night too. Only a deluge prevented more goals being scored when Wolves hosted Bournemouth last Saturday, but it should be better conditions for this fixture and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.
Fantasy Star: Mohamed Salah- I hate being boring with some of these choices, but the Liverpool front three are led by the Egyptian and Salah did score three times in his last away game.
Alternative: Raul Jimenez- this player has been a favourite of mine all season. He is a cheap striker in the official FPL game and has scored in home games against Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea. Main Wolves danger man.
Arsenal v Burnley Pick: Back to back losses have been a setback for Arsenal but they have every chance of bouncing back here even if they have not been at their most convincing in recent weeks.
Defensive injuries have not really cleared up as Unai Emery would have liked, but Arsenal are going to be allowed to get on the front foot by a Burnley team who are expected to play similarly to how they did against Tottenham Hotspur last week.
It was a battling display that brought back memories of the successes they had last season, but the underlying stats suggest Burnley were fortunate. Better finishing from Tottenham Hotspur would have made it a much more comfortable day and this Arsenal team have shown they know where to find the back of the net.
Some will point to the close win over Huddersfield Town as the blueprint for Burnley to follow. I agree they will likely try to replicate that, but Arsenal created a lot of chances that day and I think Emery is going to pick an attacking line up that can continue their dominance over Burnley.
Defensively there are some real problems for Arsenal to resolve, but I am not sure Burnley will show enough intensity going forward to expose those. If they do take chances, that should only work in the favour of Arsenal who can counter very quickly and I think the home team can be backed to win and cover the Handicap in this one.
Fantasy Star: Alexandre Lacazette- Arsenal will get chances against Burnley and it may be the Frenchman's time to start having seen Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang lead the line in the last two games without scoring.
Alternative: Mesut Ozil- the German playmaker looks to be leaving in six months time, but injuries should mean he gets the start here in a game where Arsenal are expected to dominate the ball.
Bournemouth v Brighton Pick: There is no doubt that some of the confidence and swagger that Bournemouth had been playing with has disappeared in recent games as they have been on a prolonged run of losing games. 7 losses from 8 games in all competitions will hurt any team, but Eddie Howe may well be reminding his players of the difficulty of the schedule that has been negotiated.
It doesn't get much easier for them over the festive period with visits to Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United to come over the next eight days, but this game on Saturday has to be seen as one Bournemouth can win.
They may have lost 3 of their last 4 games here, but those have come against Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool and Bournemouth were competitive in the first two of those games. Now they face a Brighton team who are not the best travellers in the Premier League and a team who have lost 3 of their last 4 away games.
For the most part Brighton have offered an attacking threat though which will make them dangerous, but Bournemouth will look at the defensive issues Brighton have had and look to expose those. With Shane Duffy suspended, Brighton might be a little weaker at the back than they have been and I can see the home team being in a position to create chances and score goals.
Brighton can also play their part and both League games between these clubs ended with three or more goals shared out last season. With both teams likely to have some opportunities to score goals, I think that could be the case here again with the confidence of the players likely to mean more mistakes and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.
Fantasy Star: Joshua King- has not been in the best of form, but due a turnaround and could be the main threat if Callum Wilson still a little tender from an injury he has been dealing with.
Alternative: Glenn Murray- been scoring plenty of goals for Brighton and should have chances to score against his former team.
Chelsea v Leicester City Pick: The win over Manchester City will have given the Chelsea players a real belief in the system that Maurizio Sarri is trying to instil in the club and they have not taken a backwards step since that win.
There had been some blips going into the fixture which had seen Chelsea lose at Tottenham Hotspur and Wolves, but the win over Manchester City shows they can compete with the very best in the Premier League. It also has helped strengthen the chances of finishing in the top four and Chelsea have to take advantage of what looks to be a favourable stretch of their schedule.
Beating Leicester City at home won't be easy as Chelsea have found with 2 draws from the last 3 League games against them at Stamford Bridge. However Chelsea have won 4 in a row at home in all competitions and are unbeaten in 18 in front of their own fans which means they are rightly fairly strong favourites to win this fixture.
It is entirely possible they are facing Leicester City at the right time considering they have lost back to back Premier League games without scoring. Jamie Vardy is back, but the players have never really been fully behind Claude Puel and there is pressure on the manager to get the results turned around.
Leicester City can be a tough team to break down when they are really at it and I think that makes them a dangerous prospect for the home team, but Chelsea are playing well of late. The Blues have been creating plenty of chances in recent games and I think they may have enough in the final third with Eden Hazard back amongst the goals.
I will look for Chelsea to get the better of a team who may be focusing on the next home game where they can play for revenge against Manchester City who knocked them out of the League Cup on Tuesday. The first goal will be crucial, but if Chelsea can move ahead in the first half I think they win this comfortably enough on the day.
Fantasy Star: Eden Hazard- scored in back to back games and a midfielder who will likely be leading the line in a 'false nine' position.
Alternative: Pedro- the Spaniard has been in decent form and always gets a couple of half decent chances per game. Cheaper option compared with Hazard.
Huddersfield Town v Southampton Pick: There should be plenty of tension around the John Smith's Stadium as they watch their home team Huddersfield Town take on a relegation rival Southampton.
Neither team will want to give the other too much Christmas cheer in what could be a vital game- Huddersfield Town have lost all momentum with 4 straight losses sending them hurtling towards the bottom of the table, while Southampton are chasing back to back Premier League wins for the first time since April 2017.
There is not much time to recover from results during the hectic festive period and that only increases the pressure on the two teams to deliver a result that can move them out of the bottom three in time for Christmas dinner to taste all the better.
Picking a winner is difficult- Huddersfield Town have struggled for goals throughout the season, but they are facing a Southampton team who have been defensively shocking. On the other hand The Saints have really found it tough to find away results, while Huddersfield Town have not exactly pulled up trees at home.
Something has to give in this one, but what that is is difficult to predict.
Last weekend Newcastle United showed a slightly more clinical display in front of goal which allowed them to beat Huddersfield Town here. With Danny Ings and Charlie Austin amongst the goals last week Southampton may feel they have enough firepower to do the same so I will look to back the visitors on the Asian Handicap to at least avoid defeat and potentially nick the three points here.
Fantasy Star: Danny Ings- scored twice last week and likely the biggest threat for either team in this game.
Alternative: Any Defender- I really don't know how to separate the defenders but picking one from either team must have a high chance of securing a clean sheet.
Manchester City v Crystal Palace Pick: Winning a game without Wilfried Zaha has been impossible for Crystal Palace in recent seasons and in fact they had lost 14 straight before managing to earn the three points against Leicester City last time out.
However winning with Zaha may be an even bigger ask this weekend as The Eagles fly to the Etihad Stadium.
Manchester City have been in rampant form at home since their defeat to Lyon and they have been scoring plenty of goals. That doesn't bode well for a Crystal Palace team who have conceded at least three goals at Chelsea, Brighton and West Ham United in their last 4 away games and the exception against Manchester United won't inspire enough confidence to take on the defending Champions.
It has been a match up that has really worked for Manchester City and they have now scored 22 goals in their last 5 home games against Crystal Palace with at least three scored in each of those games. Under Pep Guardiola Manchester City have beaten Crystal Palace 5-0 in back to back games here and the squad looks healthier this weekend compared with last.
Both Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero were back in League Cup duty during the week while the likes of Leroy Sane and Bernardo Silva are well rested. It all adds up to what is expected to be a comfortable win for the home team and I am not sure Crystal Palace can offer enough resistance to prevent that happening.
In a week where cross town rivals Manchester United are searching for yet another new manager, Manchester City can keep their high standards up and I will look for them to record a comfortable win over a defensively suspect opponent.
Fantasy Star: Raheem Sterling- Crystal Palace have taken a couple of maulings from Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium and Sterling should be well rested.
Alternative: Leroy Sane- same principle applies to Sane as it does to Sterling and also well rested.
Newcastle United v Fulham Pick: This is a huge game for both Newcastle United and Fulham ahead of the start of a difficult festive period and both managers have to be targeting the three points here.
You have to think Aleksandr Mitrovic is going to be fired up for this fixture having been sold by Newcastle United to Fulham, but the in-form striker looks to be Solomon Rondon who was the main replacement for him.
That could prove to be the difference on the day with Newcastle United playing with a little more confidence after winning at Huddersfield Town last week. They also have found goals a little easier to come by in recent weeks and now they face a Fulham team who have to be feeling really low even under a new manager.
Fulham just don't look good enough at either end of the pitch and the lack of intensity in the second half of their 0-2 defeat to West Ham United last weekend would have hurt Claudio Ranieri. The Italian needs to find answers very quickly as Fulham are in what looked to be a decent portion of their schedule, but results have not been there and it is hard to see that changing at St James' Park.
Like I said, perhaps Mitrovic fires Fulham up and they can surprise, but Newcastle United look to be playing with enough belief to win this one. Fulham's away record is pretty atrocious and they concede far too many goals so I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap which will return half the stake in the event of a draw.
Fantasy Star: Solomon Rondon- has provided a spark in front of goal for Newcastle United and surely has one or two great chances against this poor Fulham defence.
Alternative: Aleksandr Mitrovic- would anyone be surprised if the former Newcastle United striker hurts his former team?
West Ham United v Watford Pick: The weather looks to be decent enough in London this Saturday to allow West Ham United and Watford to produce a good game for those heading to the London Stadium.
Both are coming in off positive results and the good feelings extend to how well they have been playing in front of goal in recent games. Watford have scored at least twice in back to back games, but defensively they will have to be a lot better when facing a West Ham United team who have scored 11 goals in their last 4 League games overall and who have hit at least three goals in 3 of their last 4 at the London Stadium.
I am expecting to see goals on Saturday when these teams meet in East London, and my slight lean goes towards a West Ham United win. Outside of the very best teams in the Premier League it can be very difficult to put wins together as West Ham United have, but they have played well and they have been clinical in front of goal to do that.
You have to respect Watford because of the performance they produced in the 2-2 draw at Everton, but they have not quite been the same in recent weeks and that result was something of an outlier. Defeats at Newcastle United and Leicester City sandwiched a controversial draw at Southampton and I think West Ham United may have too much for them.
However this is a fixture with two attacking teams and the best selection may simply backing at least three goals to be shared out with both teams likely to hit the net at least once.
Fantasy Star: Felipe Anderson- been a part of everything good happening at West Ham United during their strong winning run.
Alternative: Javier Hernandez- another cheap striking option in the official FPL game and someone looking to hold onto his starting place in the home line up.
Cardiff City v Manchester United Pick: There was definitely and inevitability about the way Jose Mourinho's reign would end at Manchester United and the manager didn't help himself with negative tactics coupled with fallen out with some of the big name players in the squad.
Player power is a fear for any top club and now the excuses are out of the way it is time for the players to show they have enough gumption to dare to wear the Manchester United shirt.
They owe it to the fans who have been divided by the decision to bring in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer as interim manager for six months- no one will deny he has a place in Manchester United folklore, but one poor stint in the Premier League can't be forgotten and his Molde team concede plenty of goals which won't be music to the ears of those who worry about Manchester United's defence.
Solskjaer's previous time in England management came with, ironically, Cardiff City and he is sure to receive a 'warm' welcome from the locals. His time at Cardiff City was baffling to say the least and the fans were never convinced with someone whose tactics and starting elevens could never be predicted and resulted in relegation from the top flight and struggles in the Championship.
Manchester United just need Solskjaer to allow the players to produce with freedom but this is a tough ground to visit when you consider how well Cardiff City have been playing at home. Neil Warnock will have his players organised and he will look to exploit Manchester United defensively from set pieces as they look for the upset.
Cardiff City have won 4 of their last 5 games here, but the only team from the top half they have beaten is Wolves. An early sending off allowed Cardiff City to edge out Brighton and the other wins have come against Fulham and Southampton so there is a feeling that the home team have not really been able to cope with the better teams in the Premier League.
They have suffered heavy losses to Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea, while Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal have also beaten them this season. Defensively there are weaknesses in the home team and Manchester United have enough about them to think they can create chances and score goals, especially with the suggestion the new manager will take the handbrake off a team who had been scoring plenty of away goals under Jose Mourinho.
I am not sure there will be enough time to work on the defensive side of things at Old Trafford and Cardiff City have scored against Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool with the last two of those games being away from home. Manchester United away games and Cardiff City home games have featured plenty of goals throughout the 2018/19 season and I will back at least three goals to be shared out here.
Fantasy Star: Paul Pogba- a chance to prove his worth with Jose Mourinho gone, this should be an ideal spot for the Frenchman to produce a big game.
Alternative: Calum Paterson- a defender/midfielder in a number of fantasy games, Calum Paterson will play up front for Cardiff City. Are Manchester United's defensive issues going to clear up days after Mourinho leaves? I am not sure and Paterson has been amongst the goals for The Bluebirds.
Everton v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The final Premier League game to be played before Christmas Day comes from Goodison Park and there is every reason to believe it could be a cracker.
Both Everton and Tottenham Hotspur are managed by attack minded coaches and they could really gel to produce a very good game of football.
I certainly expect Everton to be a lot more competitive than they were when they played Spurs last season having been beaten by at least three goal margins in both games. The recent home record against Tottenham Hotspur is disappointing and Everton have not been in the best of form when it comes to the results produced, but Marco Silva has to believe they will begin to convert some of the quality chances that have come their way.
They will certainly take the game to their visitors, but I think that will benefit Tottenham Hotspur too who have been very good away from home this season. Harry Kane has been needed to score goals in the last few games, yet the wins continue to be produced and the likes of Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen have been pulling the strings for the team.
They have scored two or more goals in 5 of their last 7 away games and Everton have looked a little vulnerable defensively in their last couple of games here.
However I do really respect the way Silva has Everton attacking and they should be able to fashion some quality chances of their own in this fixture. With the two managers unlikely to settle for a point until the latter stages of the game, I can see these teams combining for an entertaining festive fixture and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.
Fantasy Star: Dele Alli- been in fine form for Tottenham Hotspur and scored a fabulous goal in the North London derby on Wednesday. Playing deeper than previous years, but always there or thereabouts in the opposition penalty box.
Alternative: Harry Kane- it's a mini-drought for the English striker, but hit four goals against Everton last season and his droughts never last too long.
MY PICKS: Wolves-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Brighton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cardiff City-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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Friday, 21 December 2018
Tuesday, 11 December 2018
Midweek Football Picks 2018 (December 11-13)
It's been going on for years and now the media want to pull back and take no responsibility for the pretty crappy scenes at Stamford Bridge on Saturday.
How long has it been obvious the media have had it in for Sterling and how long must people outside of that profession note the racial undertones to the criticism? I've tweeted on at least two previous occasions that the media are a joke for the way they disparage Sterling and I've noted some of the stories that seem to be led by the fact he is a young, black player and he, among others, are held to a standard that doesn't seem to apply to young, white players.
Others have been criticised and it seems those are based around the colour of the skin- I have written down my disgust at Mark Lawrenson's apparent disregard for Darren Moore being given the WBA permanent manager's job back in April, yet I don't hear the same for Frank Lampard or Steven Gerrard who have been given similar breaks and arguably with less experience Moore had at managing at the highest level.
Again that felt more about Darren Moore being an inexperienced, black manager and being held to a higher standard than inexperienced, white managers tend to be.
The media can now look to put their hands up and try and act like it has nothing to do with them that Sterling was targeted for abuse, but they have put him in that position. It's no point highlighting his positive aspects now when they have spent years breaking down his character and portraying an image for people to consume about Sterling, people who have never met him.
I've got no personal affiliation with Sterling- he has played for the two clubs I dislike the most in the Premier League. However I am also very aware of the issues ethnic minorities face in the UK and for a long time I think Sterling has taken the brunt of the abuse that typically middle class, white journalists have had for him.
It's been nothing short of a bullying campaign and one that has enabled those racist idiots at Chelsea to feel they can use some of the rubbish they did and feel they will be able to get away with it in a Stadium of 40,000 people.
An utter disgrace to say the least.
This is an issue that will soon be swept under the carpet by those journalists who are faking outrage at the moment and nothing will be resolved. The football will also move on and this week we have the final round robin of Group matches in both the Champions League and Europa League.
A number of teams have already secured passage to the Knock Out Rounds of those competitions, but order of places are still up for grabs and others still have work to do.
Barcelona, Porto and Real Madrid are the only guaranteed Group Winners, but the likes of Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain may be favoured to join them. It makes finishing 2nd in a Group really tough considering the kind of Last 16 that likely awaits and it would be something of a surprise if the eventual Champions League Winners are not from that list of eight teams provided.
Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool would likely have something to say about that, but the former have blown their chance to win the Group ahead of Atletico Madrid and need a huge favour from Club Brugge to do that, while the latter is not guaranteed of making the Last 16 at all.
It is obvious that Porto would be the 'plumb' draw for any Runner Up, but we will see how it all shakes up on Tuesday and Wednesday before the Last 16 draw is made next Monday.
The Europa League Group Stage is also concluded on Thursday and it is a big day for Scottish Football as both Celtic and Rangers look to make it through to the Last 32. Celtic are more likely to do that than Rangers, but I wouldn't rule out the latter either as they look to join Arsenal and Chelsea who have already made it through the Group.
Like the Champions League, Group Winners and Runners Up are separated and drawn together, but again we will see how it shakes up before those Last 32 ties are paired together for February 2019.
Schalke v Lokomotiv Moscow Pick: The standings are already in place in this Group with Porto going through as the Winners and Schalke finishing up as Runners Up. That can make it very difficult to predict how a dead rubber is going to go, but Lokomotiv Moscow do head to Germany with something to play for.
The Russian Champions looked an uneasy top Seed when the draw for the Champions League was made and it has proven to be the case as they are bottom of the section. Now they need to win in Germany and hope Galatasaray are not able to beat Porto at home, but their own part is not going to be easy for Lokomotiv Moscow.
The side have been beaten comfortably in both home games played and Schalke have to be thinking about bouncing back immediately after losing to Borussia Dortmund here in the derby this past weekend. Prior to that result Schalke had won 3 in a row at home and they score plenty of goals which makes them very dangerous.
A lack of motivation has to be a concern for home backers, but Schalke have seen their price drop over the last couple of days and I do want to be behind them here too. I think that lack of motivation has been factored into the prices and Schalke are a strong home team who may be able to exploit gaps if Lokomotiv Moscow have to chase the game.
With the goals being scored by Schalke in front of their own fans, I think the Bundesliga club can get the better of Lokomotiv Moscow who can head into their Winter Break ready to focus on their return to domestic matters in the new calendar year.
Club Brugge v Atletico Madrid Pick: A couple of years ago Club Brugge really struggled when they earned their place in the Champions League Group Stage but they are far better this time around. In what was a tougher Group, Club Brugge have really found some positive results and the draw at Borussia Dortmund underlined the progress they have made.
A spot in the Europa League has already been earned, but there will still be much excitement at hosting a team like Atletico Madrid who have been amongst the best in Europe in recent years.
Club Brugge can play spoiler for Atletico Madrid too as their visitors need to win here to secure top spot in this Group. Anything less will give Borussia Dortmund the chance to finish above them in the section and so there is some real pressure on Diego Simeone's men who have not been at their best away from home this season.
With the Champions League Final to be hosted in their Stadium, Atletico Madrid will be keen to earn an 'easier' Last 16 tie which will come as Group Winners. Winning here won't be easy and Club Brugge gave Atletico Madrid something to think about in the reverse fixture in the Group, but you have to really believe the Spanish club are going to dig down deep and earn the result they need.
I can't imagine it being a really high-scoring game so backing Atletico Madrid to win a fixture featuring no more than three goals is the call.
Crvena Zvezda v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: Having failed to beat Liverpool and Napoli twice in this Group, Paris Saint-Germain left themselves in a pressurised position in a competition they are desperate to succeed in. The home win over Liverpool on Match Day 5 was huge for them as they now control their own destiny and a win over Crvena Zvezda in Belgrade will be enough to move through to the Last 16.
This won't be a walkover for Paris Saint-Germain as both Napoli and Liverpool have failed to win here. A draw would be complicated for PSG if Liverpool are able to beat Napoli on the same night so the focus has to be a win in Belgrade and potentially winning the Group too.
As a Champions League favourite you have to expect Paris Saint-Germain are able to win here. Crvena Zvezda frustrated Napoli on Match Day 1, but the Italians had a host of chances in that one and PSG have players who are very capable in front of goal.
The Liverpool defeat here complicates the thinking, but I think they were very poor on the night and made it easy for their hosts. If Paris Saint-Germain play as poorly as Liverpool did they deserve to go out of the Champions League, but I think the players are focused having been in a very difficult position a couple of weeks ago and I don't think they let this opportunity slip through their hands.
The Asian Handicap is a big one considering the results Crvena Zvezda have had at home in this Group, but Paris Saint-Germain are the kind of team who can put the lesser lights to the sword as they do back home in France. The first goal will be critical, but if PSG can get that in the first half hour of this game I think they can make it a routine win on the night and move into the Last 16 as Group Winners as long as Napoli have not won at Anfield.
Inter Milan v PSV Eindhoven Pick: There will be some eyes on the game being played at the Nou Camp between Barcelona and Tottenham Hotspur, but Inter Milan have to make sure they do all they can to be put into a position to make the Last 16 of the Champions League.
It all means focusing on the fixture to be played at the San Siro on Tuesday as the Champions League Group Stage comes to a close. At the moment Inter Milan are behind Tottenham Hotspur on the head to head, but bettering the score Spurs earn at the Nou Camp will mean Inter Milan overtake them and they have to believe that Barcelona won't lose at home at the very least.
That match in Spain is going to be close and I think Tottenham Hotspur will have their chances, but Inter Milan won't worry too much about that when this fixture kicks off. Instead Inter Milan have to make sure they don't offer PSV Eindhoven any encouragement and perhaps put them in a position where the motivation is taken out of the visitors who are already out of European competition until July 2019 at the earliest.
Inter Milan have been very strong at home so you can see why they are favoured to win this game and I do think they will be able to do that. PSV Eindhoven have to be respected because they have not been blown away in the Champions League despite the obvious raise in quality they are facing, but it has been evident that PSV Eindhoven are simply not quite good enough at this level.
The Dutch Champions are not the best travellers and the attention should be on domestic matters where Ajax have cut the gap between the teams. That potential shift in focus should mean Inter Milan can continue what has been very strong form at home and I think this will be a rare occasion where the Nerazzurri can not only win at the San Siro, but win by a comfortable margin on the night.
All eyes will then shift to Barcelona to see if Tottenham Hotspur have secured the Runners Up spot or not, but for this game I think Inter Milan do their side of the equation as they look to sneak into the Second Round.
Liverpool v Napoli Pick: If someone had said to Jurgen Klopp a win over Napoli at home on Match Day 6 of the Champions League Group Stage would be enough to earn a Last 16 berth I think he would have signed up for it when the draw was made in August. However it is the manner of the way Liverpool have gotten here that will have hurt the manager and now they have a pressurised situation in December that they would have preferred to avoid.
Even then you would think Liverpool are going to come into this one with plenty of confidence having won 7 of their last 9 home Champions League games since August 2017. They have beaten the likes of Manchester City, Roma and Paris Saint-Germain here and scored plenty of goals in those wins, while Liverpool just crushed Bournemouth in the Premier League to move to the top of their domestic League table.
There is no doubt that Liverpool will feel they can score goals against Napoli, but the Italian side should not be overawed by the occasion having played some big games themselves in recent years. Domestically they have improved, but Carlo Ancelotti was brought in as manager to improve Napoli in Europe and being unbeaten through five games in this Group is a real achievement.
Making it six will be enough to make the Last 16, but Napoli have not been the best recent travellers in the Champions League. They are also in a difficult position of trying to work out of they should stick or twist knowing a draw is enough, but I do believe their best policy may be to try and get on the front foot and put their hosts under some pressure.
For all the good defensive work in the Premier League, Liverpool have looked more vulnerable in the Champions League so Napoli should have chances. They have scored at least twice in 4 consecutive away games including in the 2-2 draw at Paris Saint-Germain and Napoli have dangerous customers in the final third that deserve plenty of respect.
However there are some defensive vulnerabilities about Napoli too having conceded at least twice at Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain. It points to an entertaining game at Anfield where the goals could flow as it feels one team will always be chasing something in this fixture.
The first goal is going to be crucial to the outcome of this one and I think both teams will be able to create chances against the other with both expecting to find the net. My initial lean was Liverpool would have too much for Napoli and win this game, but a narrow win in which Napoli score won't be enough so I can see a situation develop where spaces are left by either side as they chase the result they need.
One aspect could change things and that is if there is news Paris Saint-Germain are losing by a wide margin in Serbia. In that case a narrow Liverpool win might suit both these teams involved, but that's a long way away in this match and I am expecting plenty of attacking football to be the order of the day.
Backing at least four goals to be shared out is the call, a play that would have been a victor in 6 of the last 9 Champions League games played at Anfield including both played this season. It was also the outcome of Napoli's trip to Paris Saint-Germain and is an appealing enough price for this important final Group game for the two teams involved.
Monaco v Borussia Dortmund Pick: Match Day 6 can be a tough time to get a read on teams simply as some of the ambitions of the Group would have been completed and managers may choose to rest players ahead of important domestic games.
I am not sure that will be the case in this one though.
Monaco have had a week to prepare for this fixture after seeing their derby game with Nice postponed due to the big protests going on around France over the last couple of weeks. A number of League games were postponed with those protests in mind so Thierry Henry may choose to pick a strong starting eleven to build on the momentum of winning their last League game seven days ago.
That could happen despite Monaco being knocked out of European competition already, but Henry is trying to pick up the confidence of the players for what looks like being a season long struggle to avoid relegation. The recent home is not that inspiring though and Monaco have lost 6 straight Champions League games here as they have struggled defensively to contain the quality of teams they face.
It is certainly a quality team heading to Monaco as Borussia Dortmund still have ambitions of winning this Group despite losing control of the section following a goalless home draw with Club Brugge a couple of weeks ago. For the most part Borussia Dortmund have not put a foot wrong this season which sees them open up a decent lead at the top of the Bundesliga as well as secure a spot in the Last 16 of the Champions League.
Borussia Dortmund will still want to win the Group though and they will know a win could be good enough if Atletico Madrid fail to win in Brugge. It isn't out of the question that happens so I believe Dortmund will be motivated to perform here and earn a measure of revenge for the loss in the Champions League Quarter Final two seasons ago.
The German side do have plenty of goals in the side and should be able to exploit the defensive vulnerabilities of Monaco and I will back Borussia Dortmund to win here. They have only won 1 of their last 8 away Champions League games, and Borussia Dortmund have only scored 1 goal in 2 away Group games, but Monaco concede goals for fun and I think the visitors can be backed to win a game featuring two or more goals.
Real Madrid v CSKA Moscow Pick: The first four months of the 2018/19 season have been erratic for Real Madrid to say the least, but they have won four games in a row heading into Match Day 6. Qualification for the Last 16 of the Champions League has already been earned, and Real Madrid have already won the Group, but they will want to keep the momentum going before trying to win more silverware in the calendar year next week in the World Club Championship.
Revenge may be on the minds of the players after Real Madrid were beaten by CSKA Moscow in the reverse fixture in this Group. A strong team has been predicted to start this game despite Real Madrid being back in League action on Saturday and I think they should have too much for their visitors.
CSKA Moscow have not been the worst travellers in European competition over the last couple of seasons, but they are in a difficult position of needing to better the Viktoria Plzen result if they are going to drop into the Europa League. The shocking home loss to the Czech side has put CSKA Moscow in this position and I think they may need goals in this one which also leaves them vulnerable at the back.
This is not the Real Madrid of a few months ago and they are capable of throwing in a really poor performance, but they have won 4 straight home games in all competitions and this remains a very tough place to play. With their visitors likely having to chase the game at some point, Real Madrid can produce a comfortable victory as they underline their position as Group Winners and put the Champions League aside for a couple of months.
Viktoria Plzen v Roma Pick: There will be some eyes on the other game in this Group and seeing how CSKA Moscow are getting on, but Viktoria Plzen control their own destiny and will believe a point is good enough to definitely move into the Europa League. Settling for a point too early is not really the way for them though and instead I would expect Viktoria Plzen to at least try and trouble a Roma team who are through to the Champions League Last 16 and have already been assured of finishing behind Real Madrid.
The visitors are not in the best form of late which should encourage Viktoria Plzen all the more, but they have also found the top two teams in this Group very tough opponents already.
Closing that quality gap won't be easy for Viktoria Plzen, but at least playing at home gives them a chance to try.
Roma are a very capable team in front of goal so they are dangerous, but recent games have seen them look a little vulnerable at the back too and I can see a situation where both teams score. The point might be enough for the home team and Roma won't have a real motivation to get forward and chase a late winner so the 1-1 result concerns me, although I feel an early goal could really open this up to be a good game of football and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out.
Benfica v AEK Athens Pick: Last season Benfica made history by becoming the first top Seed in the Champions League Group Stage to fail to earn a point. This season they have improved a little bit, but they must be disappointed to already be out of contention for a spot in the Last 16 of the Champions League before Match Day 6, although Benfica will have the benefit of knowing they are going to be playing European Football after Christmas in the 2018/19 season.
I don't think it is a stretch to say Benfica have fallen off the standards they had been setting in recent years. Even with that in mind I would have thought they would have been closer to Ajax in this Group, but the Dutch side look much improved as they confirmed a spot in the Last 16 by picking up 4 points in the double header with Benfica.
This is yet another dead rubber in the Champions League this week but I still think Benfica are going to be far too strong for an AEK Athens team who have struggled at this level. The Greek side have lost all five games they have played in the Champions League and they have conceded at least two goals in each of those games and I think it makes it very difficult to pick up points when you are defensively vulnerable like that.
AEK Athens have been comfortably beaten in both away games in this Group and I think Benfica can make that three from three. Benfica are not back in action until Sunday so they can give this a real go even though they have nothing to really play for, and I think the home team will be able to win by a couple of goals on the night.
Manchester City v Hoffenheim Pick: Last season Manchester City lost their first Premier League game of the season in January and they followed that up with 6 wins from 7 games in all competitions to maintain the momentum they had built up. Pep Guardiola will be looking for a similar reaction in the busy December calendar after the defeat at Stamford Bridge on Saturday although he will also be hoping for some reinforcements with the squad looking a little stretched at the moment.
Manchester City still need a point to secure top spot in the Group after the 2-2 draw in Lyon on Match Day 5, but I would still expect some rotations to be used by the manager during this time of the season. Big games are coming thick and fast for Manchester City, but they can bring in the likes of Danilo, Nicolas Otamendi, Vincent Kompany, Ilkay Gundogan and Gabriel Jesus for this one which looks to be coming too soon for Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero.
Whichever starting eleven is picked, Manchester City can't expect to get an easy ride from Hoffenheim even if their visitors have only earned 3 points from a possible 15 in the Group.
It's not for a lack of goals that they have not been able to secure more points than they have. Hoffenheim have scored 10 goals in their 5 Champions League games and only 1 of their 5 games have seen them score fewer than two goals. Hoffenheim have hit at least two goals in 7 of their last 8 away games in all competitions including in both Champions League Group games, but defensively they can be erratic to say the least and that is the main reason Hoffenheim have not been able to produce more wins than they have.
They will go to the Etihad Stadium and have a go at Manchester City, but that does leave Hoffenheim vulnerable to the counter attack and I think this is a fixture that is likely going to produce chances and goals. The attacking threat posed by Hoffenheim makes it hard to back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap even if I believe they have a positive reaction to the defeat on Saturday, but there is a market that has stood out.
With the need for at least one more point to win this Group, I expect Manchester City play a strong team and one capable of winning this game. I do think Hoffenheim will play a part and goals have flowed in the Bundesliga club's recent away games thanks to a strong attack and a very poor defence.
5 of the last 6 Manchester City home games have featured at least four goals shared out and that number of goals being scored has been a regular occurrence in this Group. With that in mind I think Manchester City can be backed to win this one and with four goals to be shared out on the evening.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Lyon Pick: Group F of the Champions League has been about the most exciting in terms of close games and plenty of goals being scored. On Match Day 6 it is the turn of Shakhtar Donetsk and Lyon to face off with a place in the Champions League Last 16 on the line when they meet in the Ukraine.
The Lyon games in particular have been amazing to watch with a real attacking threat mixed in with defensive vulnerabilities. For a team to take 4 points from Manchester City and still need a result to make it out of this Group is a huge surprise, but shows Lyon you can't just expect to out-score teams at this level.
I don't think the policy will have changed though and Lyon will head to Shakhtar Donetsk with goals on their mind having scored at least two goals in all 5 Group games. However the last 4 have all ended in draws since the surprising 1-2 win at the Etihad Stadium and those draws for Lyon read 2-2, 3-3, 2-2, 2-2.
In the home game with Shakhtar Donetsk, Lyon came from 0-2 down to earn the 2-2 draw and they know another draw here will be enough to make it through to the Last 16. However the Ukrainian Champions are very good at home and they will believe their own attacking capabilities can expose the defensive issues Lyon have had in the Champions League.
Like Lyon, Shakhtar Donetsk have seen 4 of their 5 Group games feature at least four goals. The difference between the teams has been the two beatings Shakhtar Donetsk have absorbed against Manchester City and that is why they are trailing Lyon in this Group.
In the other 3 games in the Group, Shakhtar Donetsk have scored at least two goals and conceded at least two goals and I am not surprised the layers are expecting goals. It can be colder at this time of the year in the Ukraine, but these two teams are capable of warming things up in an entertaining game where both will likely be chasing goals at some point.
The defending has not matched the attacking capabilities shown and I think this will be another game in the Group featuring at least four goals.
MY PICKS: Schalke @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet365 (2 Units)
Inter Milan - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.99 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool-Napoli Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Viktoria Plzen-Roma Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Benfica - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City Win & Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk-Lyon Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.45 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Valencia-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juventus - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet365 (2 Units)
How long has it been obvious the media have had it in for Sterling and how long must people outside of that profession note the racial undertones to the criticism? I've tweeted on at least two previous occasions that the media are a joke for the way they disparage Sterling and I've noted some of the stories that seem to be led by the fact he is a young, black player and he, among others, are held to a standard that doesn't seem to apply to young, white players.
Others have been criticised and it seems those are based around the colour of the skin- I have written down my disgust at Mark Lawrenson's apparent disregard for Darren Moore being given the WBA permanent manager's job back in April, yet I don't hear the same for Frank Lampard or Steven Gerrard who have been given similar breaks and arguably with less experience Moore had at managing at the highest level.
Again that felt more about Darren Moore being an inexperienced, black manager and being held to a higher standard than inexperienced, white managers tend to be.
The media can now look to put their hands up and try and act like it has nothing to do with them that Sterling was targeted for abuse, but they have put him in that position. It's no point highlighting his positive aspects now when they have spent years breaking down his character and portraying an image for people to consume about Sterling, people who have never met him.
I've got no personal affiliation with Sterling- he has played for the two clubs I dislike the most in the Premier League. However I am also very aware of the issues ethnic minorities face in the UK and for a long time I think Sterling has taken the brunt of the abuse that typically middle class, white journalists have had for him.
It's been nothing short of a bullying campaign and one that has enabled those racist idiots at Chelsea to feel they can use some of the rubbish they did and feel they will be able to get away with it in a Stadium of 40,000 people.
An utter disgrace to say the least.
This is an issue that will soon be swept under the carpet by those journalists who are faking outrage at the moment and nothing will be resolved. The football will also move on and this week we have the final round robin of Group matches in both the Champions League and Europa League.
A number of teams have already secured passage to the Knock Out Rounds of those competitions, but order of places are still up for grabs and others still have work to do.
Barcelona, Porto and Real Madrid are the only guaranteed Group Winners, but the likes of Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain may be favoured to join them. It makes finishing 2nd in a Group really tough considering the kind of Last 16 that likely awaits and it would be something of a surprise if the eventual Champions League Winners are not from that list of eight teams provided.
Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool would likely have something to say about that, but the former have blown their chance to win the Group ahead of Atletico Madrid and need a huge favour from Club Brugge to do that, while the latter is not guaranteed of making the Last 16 at all.
It is obvious that Porto would be the 'plumb' draw for any Runner Up, but we will see how it all shakes up on Tuesday and Wednesday before the Last 16 draw is made next Monday.
The Europa League Group Stage is also concluded on Thursday and it is a big day for Scottish Football as both Celtic and Rangers look to make it through to the Last 32. Celtic are more likely to do that than Rangers, but I wouldn't rule out the latter either as they look to join Arsenal and Chelsea who have already made it through the Group.
Like the Champions League, Group Winners and Runners Up are separated and drawn together, but again we will see how it shakes up before those Last 32 ties are paired together for February 2019.
Schalke v Lokomotiv Moscow Pick: The standings are already in place in this Group with Porto going through as the Winners and Schalke finishing up as Runners Up. That can make it very difficult to predict how a dead rubber is going to go, but Lokomotiv Moscow do head to Germany with something to play for.
The Russian Champions looked an uneasy top Seed when the draw for the Champions League was made and it has proven to be the case as they are bottom of the section. Now they need to win in Germany and hope Galatasaray are not able to beat Porto at home, but their own part is not going to be easy for Lokomotiv Moscow.
The side have been beaten comfortably in both home games played and Schalke have to be thinking about bouncing back immediately after losing to Borussia Dortmund here in the derby this past weekend. Prior to that result Schalke had won 3 in a row at home and they score plenty of goals which makes them very dangerous.
A lack of motivation has to be a concern for home backers, but Schalke have seen their price drop over the last couple of days and I do want to be behind them here too. I think that lack of motivation has been factored into the prices and Schalke are a strong home team who may be able to exploit gaps if Lokomotiv Moscow have to chase the game.
With the goals being scored by Schalke in front of their own fans, I think the Bundesliga club can get the better of Lokomotiv Moscow who can head into their Winter Break ready to focus on their return to domestic matters in the new calendar year.
Club Brugge v Atletico Madrid Pick: A couple of years ago Club Brugge really struggled when they earned their place in the Champions League Group Stage but they are far better this time around. In what was a tougher Group, Club Brugge have really found some positive results and the draw at Borussia Dortmund underlined the progress they have made.
A spot in the Europa League has already been earned, but there will still be much excitement at hosting a team like Atletico Madrid who have been amongst the best in Europe in recent years.
Club Brugge can play spoiler for Atletico Madrid too as their visitors need to win here to secure top spot in this Group. Anything less will give Borussia Dortmund the chance to finish above them in the section and so there is some real pressure on Diego Simeone's men who have not been at their best away from home this season.
With the Champions League Final to be hosted in their Stadium, Atletico Madrid will be keen to earn an 'easier' Last 16 tie which will come as Group Winners. Winning here won't be easy and Club Brugge gave Atletico Madrid something to think about in the reverse fixture in the Group, but you have to really believe the Spanish club are going to dig down deep and earn the result they need.
I can't imagine it being a really high-scoring game so backing Atletico Madrid to win a fixture featuring no more than three goals is the call.
Crvena Zvezda v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: Having failed to beat Liverpool and Napoli twice in this Group, Paris Saint-Germain left themselves in a pressurised position in a competition they are desperate to succeed in. The home win over Liverpool on Match Day 5 was huge for them as they now control their own destiny and a win over Crvena Zvezda in Belgrade will be enough to move through to the Last 16.
This won't be a walkover for Paris Saint-Germain as both Napoli and Liverpool have failed to win here. A draw would be complicated for PSG if Liverpool are able to beat Napoli on the same night so the focus has to be a win in Belgrade and potentially winning the Group too.
As a Champions League favourite you have to expect Paris Saint-Germain are able to win here. Crvena Zvezda frustrated Napoli on Match Day 1, but the Italians had a host of chances in that one and PSG have players who are very capable in front of goal.
The Liverpool defeat here complicates the thinking, but I think they were very poor on the night and made it easy for their hosts. If Paris Saint-Germain play as poorly as Liverpool did they deserve to go out of the Champions League, but I think the players are focused having been in a very difficult position a couple of weeks ago and I don't think they let this opportunity slip through their hands.
The Asian Handicap is a big one considering the results Crvena Zvezda have had at home in this Group, but Paris Saint-Germain are the kind of team who can put the lesser lights to the sword as they do back home in France. The first goal will be critical, but if PSG can get that in the first half hour of this game I think they can make it a routine win on the night and move into the Last 16 as Group Winners as long as Napoli have not won at Anfield.
Inter Milan v PSV Eindhoven Pick: There will be some eyes on the game being played at the Nou Camp between Barcelona and Tottenham Hotspur, but Inter Milan have to make sure they do all they can to be put into a position to make the Last 16 of the Champions League.
It all means focusing on the fixture to be played at the San Siro on Tuesday as the Champions League Group Stage comes to a close. At the moment Inter Milan are behind Tottenham Hotspur on the head to head, but bettering the score Spurs earn at the Nou Camp will mean Inter Milan overtake them and they have to believe that Barcelona won't lose at home at the very least.
That match in Spain is going to be close and I think Tottenham Hotspur will have their chances, but Inter Milan won't worry too much about that when this fixture kicks off. Instead Inter Milan have to make sure they don't offer PSV Eindhoven any encouragement and perhaps put them in a position where the motivation is taken out of the visitors who are already out of European competition until July 2019 at the earliest.
Inter Milan have been very strong at home so you can see why they are favoured to win this game and I do think they will be able to do that. PSV Eindhoven have to be respected because they have not been blown away in the Champions League despite the obvious raise in quality they are facing, but it has been evident that PSV Eindhoven are simply not quite good enough at this level.
The Dutch Champions are not the best travellers and the attention should be on domestic matters where Ajax have cut the gap between the teams. That potential shift in focus should mean Inter Milan can continue what has been very strong form at home and I think this will be a rare occasion where the Nerazzurri can not only win at the San Siro, but win by a comfortable margin on the night.
All eyes will then shift to Barcelona to see if Tottenham Hotspur have secured the Runners Up spot or not, but for this game I think Inter Milan do their side of the equation as they look to sneak into the Second Round.
Liverpool v Napoli Pick: If someone had said to Jurgen Klopp a win over Napoli at home on Match Day 6 of the Champions League Group Stage would be enough to earn a Last 16 berth I think he would have signed up for it when the draw was made in August. However it is the manner of the way Liverpool have gotten here that will have hurt the manager and now they have a pressurised situation in December that they would have preferred to avoid.
Even then you would think Liverpool are going to come into this one with plenty of confidence having won 7 of their last 9 home Champions League games since August 2017. They have beaten the likes of Manchester City, Roma and Paris Saint-Germain here and scored plenty of goals in those wins, while Liverpool just crushed Bournemouth in the Premier League to move to the top of their domestic League table.
There is no doubt that Liverpool will feel they can score goals against Napoli, but the Italian side should not be overawed by the occasion having played some big games themselves in recent years. Domestically they have improved, but Carlo Ancelotti was brought in as manager to improve Napoli in Europe and being unbeaten through five games in this Group is a real achievement.
Making it six will be enough to make the Last 16, but Napoli have not been the best recent travellers in the Champions League. They are also in a difficult position of trying to work out of they should stick or twist knowing a draw is enough, but I do believe their best policy may be to try and get on the front foot and put their hosts under some pressure.
For all the good defensive work in the Premier League, Liverpool have looked more vulnerable in the Champions League so Napoli should have chances. They have scored at least twice in 4 consecutive away games including in the 2-2 draw at Paris Saint-Germain and Napoli have dangerous customers in the final third that deserve plenty of respect.
However there are some defensive vulnerabilities about Napoli too having conceded at least twice at Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain. It points to an entertaining game at Anfield where the goals could flow as it feels one team will always be chasing something in this fixture.
The first goal is going to be crucial to the outcome of this one and I think both teams will be able to create chances against the other with both expecting to find the net. My initial lean was Liverpool would have too much for Napoli and win this game, but a narrow win in which Napoli score won't be enough so I can see a situation develop where spaces are left by either side as they chase the result they need.
One aspect could change things and that is if there is news Paris Saint-Germain are losing by a wide margin in Serbia. In that case a narrow Liverpool win might suit both these teams involved, but that's a long way away in this match and I am expecting plenty of attacking football to be the order of the day.
Backing at least four goals to be shared out is the call, a play that would have been a victor in 6 of the last 9 Champions League games played at Anfield including both played this season. It was also the outcome of Napoli's trip to Paris Saint-Germain and is an appealing enough price for this important final Group game for the two teams involved.
Monaco v Borussia Dortmund Pick: Match Day 6 can be a tough time to get a read on teams simply as some of the ambitions of the Group would have been completed and managers may choose to rest players ahead of important domestic games.
I am not sure that will be the case in this one though.
Monaco have had a week to prepare for this fixture after seeing their derby game with Nice postponed due to the big protests going on around France over the last couple of weeks. A number of League games were postponed with those protests in mind so Thierry Henry may choose to pick a strong starting eleven to build on the momentum of winning their last League game seven days ago.
That could happen despite Monaco being knocked out of European competition already, but Henry is trying to pick up the confidence of the players for what looks like being a season long struggle to avoid relegation. The recent home is not that inspiring though and Monaco have lost 6 straight Champions League games here as they have struggled defensively to contain the quality of teams they face.
It is certainly a quality team heading to Monaco as Borussia Dortmund still have ambitions of winning this Group despite losing control of the section following a goalless home draw with Club Brugge a couple of weeks ago. For the most part Borussia Dortmund have not put a foot wrong this season which sees them open up a decent lead at the top of the Bundesliga as well as secure a spot in the Last 16 of the Champions League.
Borussia Dortmund will still want to win the Group though and they will know a win could be good enough if Atletico Madrid fail to win in Brugge. It isn't out of the question that happens so I believe Dortmund will be motivated to perform here and earn a measure of revenge for the loss in the Champions League Quarter Final two seasons ago.
The German side do have plenty of goals in the side and should be able to exploit the defensive vulnerabilities of Monaco and I will back Borussia Dortmund to win here. They have only won 1 of their last 8 away Champions League games, and Borussia Dortmund have only scored 1 goal in 2 away Group games, but Monaco concede goals for fun and I think the visitors can be backed to win a game featuring two or more goals.
Real Madrid v CSKA Moscow Pick: The first four months of the 2018/19 season have been erratic for Real Madrid to say the least, but they have won four games in a row heading into Match Day 6. Qualification for the Last 16 of the Champions League has already been earned, and Real Madrid have already won the Group, but they will want to keep the momentum going before trying to win more silverware in the calendar year next week in the World Club Championship.
Revenge may be on the minds of the players after Real Madrid were beaten by CSKA Moscow in the reverse fixture in this Group. A strong team has been predicted to start this game despite Real Madrid being back in League action on Saturday and I think they should have too much for their visitors.
CSKA Moscow have not been the worst travellers in European competition over the last couple of seasons, but they are in a difficult position of needing to better the Viktoria Plzen result if they are going to drop into the Europa League. The shocking home loss to the Czech side has put CSKA Moscow in this position and I think they may need goals in this one which also leaves them vulnerable at the back.
This is not the Real Madrid of a few months ago and they are capable of throwing in a really poor performance, but they have won 4 straight home games in all competitions and this remains a very tough place to play. With their visitors likely having to chase the game at some point, Real Madrid can produce a comfortable victory as they underline their position as Group Winners and put the Champions League aside for a couple of months.
Viktoria Plzen v Roma Pick: There will be some eyes on the other game in this Group and seeing how CSKA Moscow are getting on, but Viktoria Plzen control their own destiny and will believe a point is good enough to definitely move into the Europa League. Settling for a point too early is not really the way for them though and instead I would expect Viktoria Plzen to at least try and trouble a Roma team who are through to the Champions League Last 16 and have already been assured of finishing behind Real Madrid.
The visitors are not in the best form of late which should encourage Viktoria Plzen all the more, but they have also found the top two teams in this Group very tough opponents already.
Closing that quality gap won't be easy for Viktoria Plzen, but at least playing at home gives them a chance to try.
Roma are a very capable team in front of goal so they are dangerous, but recent games have seen them look a little vulnerable at the back too and I can see a situation where both teams score. The point might be enough for the home team and Roma won't have a real motivation to get forward and chase a late winner so the 1-1 result concerns me, although I feel an early goal could really open this up to be a good game of football and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out.
Benfica v AEK Athens Pick: Last season Benfica made history by becoming the first top Seed in the Champions League Group Stage to fail to earn a point. This season they have improved a little bit, but they must be disappointed to already be out of contention for a spot in the Last 16 of the Champions League before Match Day 6, although Benfica will have the benefit of knowing they are going to be playing European Football after Christmas in the 2018/19 season.
I don't think it is a stretch to say Benfica have fallen off the standards they had been setting in recent years. Even with that in mind I would have thought they would have been closer to Ajax in this Group, but the Dutch side look much improved as they confirmed a spot in the Last 16 by picking up 4 points in the double header with Benfica.
This is yet another dead rubber in the Champions League this week but I still think Benfica are going to be far too strong for an AEK Athens team who have struggled at this level. The Greek side have lost all five games they have played in the Champions League and they have conceded at least two goals in each of those games and I think it makes it very difficult to pick up points when you are defensively vulnerable like that.
AEK Athens have been comfortably beaten in both away games in this Group and I think Benfica can make that three from three. Benfica are not back in action until Sunday so they can give this a real go even though they have nothing to really play for, and I think the home team will be able to win by a couple of goals on the night.
Manchester City v Hoffenheim Pick: Last season Manchester City lost their first Premier League game of the season in January and they followed that up with 6 wins from 7 games in all competitions to maintain the momentum they had built up. Pep Guardiola will be looking for a similar reaction in the busy December calendar after the defeat at Stamford Bridge on Saturday although he will also be hoping for some reinforcements with the squad looking a little stretched at the moment.
Manchester City still need a point to secure top spot in the Group after the 2-2 draw in Lyon on Match Day 5, but I would still expect some rotations to be used by the manager during this time of the season. Big games are coming thick and fast for Manchester City, but they can bring in the likes of Danilo, Nicolas Otamendi, Vincent Kompany, Ilkay Gundogan and Gabriel Jesus for this one which looks to be coming too soon for Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero.
Whichever starting eleven is picked, Manchester City can't expect to get an easy ride from Hoffenheim even if their visitors have only earned 3 points from a possible 15 in the Group.
It's not for a lack of goals that they have not been able to secure more points than they have. Hoffenheim have scored 10 goals in their 5 Champions League games and only 1 of their 5 games have seen them score fewer than two goals. Hoffenheim have hit at least two goals in 7 of their last 8 away games in all competitions including in both Champions League Group games, but defensively they can be erratic to say the least and that is the main reason Hoffenheim have not been able to produce more wins than they have.
They will go to the Etihad Stadium and have a go at Manchester City, but that does leave Hoffenheim vulnerable to the counter attack and I think this is a fixture that is likely going to produce chances and goals. The attacking threat posed by Hoffenheim makes it hard to back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap even if I believe they have a positive reaction to the defeat on Saturday, but there is a market that has stood out.
With the need for at least one more point to win this Group, I expect Manchester City play a strong team and one capable of winning this game. I do think Hoffenheim will play a part and goals have flowed in the Bundesliga club's recent away games thanks to a strong attack and a very poor defence.
5 of the last 6 Manchester City home games have featured at least four goals shared out and that number of goals being scored has been a regular occurrence in this Group. With that in mind I think Manchester City can be backed to win this one and with four goals to be shared out on the evening.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Lyon Pick: Group F of the Champions League has been about the most exciting in terms of close games and plenty of goals being scored. On Match Day 6 it is the turn of Shakhtar Donetsk and Lyon to face off with a place in the Champions League Last 16 on the line when they meet in the Ukraine.
The Lyon games in particular have been amazing to watch with a real attacking threat mixed in with defensive vulnerabilities. For a team to take 4 points from Manchester City and still need a result to make it out of this Group is a huge surprise, but shows Lyon you can't just expect to out-score teams at this level.
I don't think the policy will have changed though and Lyon will head to Shakhtar Donetsk with goals on their mind having scored at least two goals in all 5 Group games. However the last 4 have all ended in draws since the surprising 1-2 win at the Etihad Stadium and those draws for Lyon read 2-2, 3-3, 2-2, 2-2.
In the home game with Shakhtar Donetsk, Lyon came from 0-2 down to earn the 2-2 draw and they know another draw here will be enough to make it through to the Last 16. However the Ukrainian Champions are very good at home and they will believe their own attacking capabilities can expose the defensive issues Lyon have had in the Champions League.
Like Lyon, Shakhtar Donetsk have seen 4 of their 5 Group games feature at least four goals. The difference between the teams has been the two beatings Shakhtar Donetsk have absorbed against Manchester City and that is why they are trailing Lyon in this Group.
In the other 3 games in the Group, Shakhtar Donetsk have scored at least two goals and conceded at least two goals and I am not surprised the layers are expecting goals. It can be colder at this time of the year in the Ukraine, but these two teams are capable of warming things up in an entertaining game where both will likely be chasing goals at some point.
The defending has not matched the attacking capabilities shown and I think this will be another game in the Group featuring at least four goals.
MY PICKS: Schalke @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet365 (2 Units)
Inter Milan - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.99 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool-Napoli Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Viktoria Plzen-Roma Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Benfica - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City Win & Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk-Lyon Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.45 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Valencia-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juventus - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sunday, 9 December 2018
NFL Week 14 Picks 2018 (December 6-10)
With teams on the brink of securing Play Off spots and others trying to fight off elimination, Week 14 is another huge week for teams around the NFL.
It should also be the start of the Fantasy Football Play Offs in most Leagues so this is going to be an important week for fans and players as we get into the final four weeks of the NFL regular season heading towards the January Play Offs.
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins Pick: The season is all but over for the New York Giants, but the team have not given up playing hard and Odell Beckham Jr said it is all about dragging others out of the post-season the rest of the way. Unfortunately for the Giants, OBJ won't be available for this game after being ruled out on Saturday although the Washington Redskins won't be sympathising with the Giants.
Injuries have helped unravel the Washington Redskins season and even though they are only a game out of the NFC East lead, it feels much bigger than that having lost three games in a row which includes defeats to the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.
The bigger key is the fact that Washington are down to their third choice Quarter Back as Mark Sanchez takes over from Alex Smith and Colt McCoy who have both suffered fractured legs to end their seasons. Smith's injury sounds quite serious, but McCoy should recover fully although anyone trying to tell me Sanchez is better than asking Colin Kaepernick to play and citing 'football reasons' needs to find a new sport to follow.
It was no surprise watching Monday Night Football and seeing the Redskins barely able to move the ball against the Eagles once Sanchez came into the game. He is not going to have that long to expand his knowledge of the playbook from where it was on Monday and Sanchez is going to have another tough afternoon simply because he is not really a NFL level Quarter Back.
Sanchez won't be helped by the injuries on the Offensive Line and it is going to be very difficult for him to step back and make throws with the Giants expected to get pressure on him. The game plan will likely be leaning on the running game and keeping the Redskins in third and manageable spots, but the Giants should know this if they have done their homework and that means I expect New York to really look to clamp down on Adrian Peterson and force Sanchez to have to make the throws to keep the chains moving.
Odell Beckham Jr's absence is a big one for the Giants, but Evan Engram is expected to play which gives Eli Manning an important weapon in the passing game. The Giants have won three of their last four games, which probably frustrates the fanbase who were hoping for a very high Draft Pick, but the players for the Giants are performing for future employment so won't tank things away.
The Washington Defensive Unit are still playing well so it won't be an easy day for the Giants, but they are going to find it tough to stay motivated if Sanchez struggles as he may well do. One aspect they don't do so well is stopping the run and that may spell trouble with Saquon Barkley showing why the Giants took him as high as they did in the First Round of the last Draft and I expect Barkley to be involved massively throughout this Divisional game.
I do think there will be times when the Washington pass rush rattles Manning and he has to be careful of throwing the ball in those situations, but Eli is still some way better than Mark Sanchez. With the likely better support at Running Back, I think Manning finds a way to move the ball and keep the points coming and the Giants can cover this spread as the road favourite.
The Redskins have a poor record playing after Monday Night Football as they have gone 2-7 against the spread in the last nine in that spot, and I think the injuries have seen the season fall apart for them.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Pick: Nine straight wins has seen the Houston Texans put a 0-3 record firmly behind them as they have taken complete control of the AFC South Division. At the moment they are 2.5 games ahead of the Tennessee Titans and 3 games ahead of the Indianapolis Colts and another win on Sunday would put the Texans on the brink of making the Play Offs.
There may be bigger ambitions perhaps at play for the Texans than simply playing Play Off Football in January and that may be sneaking a Bye through to the Divisional Round. They have the same record as the New England Patriots and are a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs so keeping the winning run going is very important for the Texans.
In Week 13 Indianapolis Colts laid an egg as they failed to score in a road loss at the Jacksonville Jaguars which leaves their Play Off ambitions teetering over the cliff. Andrew Luck had been in great form prior to that game, but I don't want one game to cloud over the fact that the Colts have been playing very well to get back into the Play Off picture.
These two teams played a really close one in Indianapolis which was won by the Texans in Overtime earlier this season and everything is pointing to another close one in Week 14. That makes the points with the road underdog look appealing, but Indianapolis will need Luck to be at his best for that to happen.
You have to respect the Houston Texans Defensive unit which has some quality players in it, but there are also some holes in the Secondary which I would expect Luck to exploit. If TY Hilton can't go it would be a blow to the Colts, but Luck has been well protected by his Offensive Line and I think they can give the Quarter Back just enough time to make his plays down the field much like he did in the first game between these teams.
Marlon Mack didn't have a good outing at the Jaguars last week, but I think he could have some success here as Houston look to stop the pass. Ripping off a few big runs should keep the Texans honest and allow Luck to get back to the strong passing days he had been producing prior to Week 13.
I think Deshaun Watson is more than capable of staying with Luck in a shoot out, but he is perhaps going to be under more pressure than you would expect. The Colts have been able to get a fierce pass rush going and the Houston Offensive Line is not the best, although Watson is a smart Quarter Back to identify pressure and also the athlete who can escape the pocket and make plays with his legs too.
Lamar Miller has been running the ball well for the Texans, but the Indianapolis Colts have played the run well and the Defensive unit have really stepped up from where they were a year ago. There will be drives that the talent of Watson and DeAndre Hopkins will extend, even from third and long spots, but I can't see the Texans blowing out the Colts who will be looking to prove they are much better than the effort showed in Week 13.
The Colts are 4-0-1 against the spread in the last five games in Houston and they have a strong record against the spread against this Divisional rival in recent years. Houston are a hard team to oppose considering how well they have cashed in at the window in recent weeks, but I will take the points with the underdog here.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The first thing you have to note is how poor a record the New England Patriots have in Miami against the Dolphins in recent years despite dominating the AFC East and much of the rest of the Conference. It's not like they have played in Miami early in the season when the focus is not quite as sharp as it will be in Week 14, but a number of the losses have come in December or January and the Patriots can't really afford to slip up in order to gain the best Play Off position.
Once again they have dominated the AFC East and a win over the Miami Dolphins will secure a Play Off spot. However the Patriots are more interested in trying to earn the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and they are currently have a record tied with the Houston Texans and a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs, although the Patriots hold the tie-breaker over the Chiefs having beaten them earlier in the season.
Winning out may give New England every chance of securing the Number 1 Seed so they will head to South Florida with a big goal on their mind. Tom Brady has perhaps shown some signs of slowing down which makes it harder to really believe in the Patriots going on and winning the Super Bowl, but he should have the right support to beat the Dolphins even in a Stadium where Brady has had his troubles.
While Brady may not be playing quite up at the level he can, the Patriots can lean on the running game in this one with Sonny Michel likely backing up the 100 yard game he had against Miami earlier this season. The Dolphins Defensive Line is strong on the ends, but they have struggled to stop the run and the respect for Brady and the passing game will likely mean Michel can produce a very big game for them.
That could open things up for Brady who has quality Receivers in Rob Gronkowski, Josh Gordan and Julian Edelman and the Quarter Back will be aware that Miami could be missing their best player in the Secondary. Brady will get a quick release when he does pass to make sure the Miami pass rush can't disrupt things and I do think the Patriots will be able to move the ball throughout the game barring them melting in the heat of Miami.
Miami will look to do that by controlling the clock and this team have been able to do that when Ryan Tannehill has been at Quarter Back. They have shown they can run the ball effectively and clamping down on the run has been difficult for the Patriots although I imagine Bill Belichick will try and take that away from the Dolphins and force Tannehill to beat them with his arm.
The Dolphins Offensive Line has had some troubles in pass protection of late which would be a concern if they are finding the running lanes harder to come by if the New England schemes are in place. Asking Tannehill to throw to Receivers who have come in to replace some of the injured starters and have consistent success may be too big an ask and I could see the New England Patriots just turning the screw in this one.
There is no doubt the Dolphins are tough to play in South Florida where teams visits and are not used to the temperatures you will find. However the Dolphins are also 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen games against a team with a winning record and they are 6-15 against the spread in their last twenty-one games played in December.
New England are 17-6 against the spread in their last twenty-three road games and they won here two seasons ago in January so I will look for the Patriots to secure a big road win and cover this big number.
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: This may be a non-Conference game, but in a sixteen game season every game means something and that is especially true for the Denver Broncos who are making a late push towards the Play Offs.
At 6-6 the Broncos are not going to win the AFC West which is being dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs, but they are very much in contention for one of the Wild Card spots. There isn't much room for mistakes though as the Broncos know they likely need to win out if they are going to achieve their goals and they will be having to do that without Emmanuel Sanders.
Sanders has gone down with a season ending injury and a team who have traded away Demaryius Thomas to the Texans may be short at Receiver. However the Broncos have a dynamic Running Back duo with Philip Lindsay making a mockery of the fact he was not Drafted in the Seven Rounds of the Draft last year.
Lindsay and Royce Freeman should be able to get the Denver Broncos up by running the ball effectively throughout this game and I think they are going to give the San Francisco Defensive Line real problems to deal with. The Broncos Offensive Line has loved paving the way for their Running Backs and it should make Case Keenum's job that much easier when it comes to making plays through the air against a Secondary that is not that good outside of Richard Sherman.
Keenum has hardly been lighting the board up through the air, but he won't need to make huge plays if Denver are running the ball effectively, while the Quarter Back may also be given short fields if Nick Mullens is not able to have a big game for the San Francisco 49ers.
It should be said that the Denver Defensive unit is not up to the level of the team that won the Super Bowl for Peyton Manning, but injuries are hurting San Francisco all around and Mullens is showing why he was a third string Quarter Back.
Matt Breida is also out of action for the 49ers so the pressure may be on Mullens to push himself more than he would want to in order to keep the 49ers in this one. The pass rush is going to be something for Mullens to deal with, but he should also have some success through the air against a Denver Secondary that has not been as strong as they would have wanted.
However they have been able to turn the ball over and Mullens is having issues with Interceptions blighting his game of late and I think that makes the difference here. He will have some success, but Denver are going to make the big plays at the key times which will help them overcome the 49ers and cover what is a pretty big number for any road favourite with the hook going with the home underdog.
Denver did have a pretty poor record as a road team at the window under Coach Joseph, but they have covered in their last four road games and I think they can do that here.
MY PICKS: New York Giants - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 4 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 9.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New York Jets + 4 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Detroit Lions - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
It should also be the start of the Fantasy Football Play Offs in most Leagues so this is going to be an important week for fans and players as we get into the final four weeks of the NFL regular season heading towards the January Play Offs.
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins Pick: The season is all but over for the New York Giants, but the team have not given up playing hard and Odell Beckham Jr said it is all about dragging others out of the post-season the rest of the way. Unfortunately for the Giants, OBJ won't be available for this game after being ruled out on Saturday although the Washington Redskins won't be sympathising with the Giants.
Injuries have helped unravel the Washington Redskins season and even though they are only a game out of the NFC East lead, it feels much bigger than that having lost three games in a row which includes defeats to the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.
The bigger key is the fact that Washington are down to their third choice Quarter Back as Mark Sanchez takes over from Alex Smith and Colt McCoy who have both suffered fractured legs to end their seasons. Smith's injury sounds quite serious, but McCoy should recover fully although anyone trying to tell me Sanchez is better than asking Colin Kaepernick to play and citing 'football reasons' needs to find a new sport to follow.
It was no surprise watching Monday Night Football and seeing the Redskins barely able to move the ball against the Eagles once Sanchez came into the game. He is not going to have that long to expand his knowledge of the playbook from where it was on Monday and Sanchez is going to have another tough afternoon simply because he is not really a NFL level Quarter Back.
Sanchez won't be helped by the injuries on the Offensive Line and it is going to be very difficult for him to step back and make throws with the Giants expected to get pressure on him. The game plan will likely be leaning on the running game and keeping the Redskins in third and manageable spots, but the Giants should know this if they have done their homework and that means I expect New York to really look to clamp down on Adrian Peterson and force Sanchez to have to make the throws to keep the chains moving.
Odell Beckham Jr's absence is a big one for the Giants, but Evan Engram is expected to play which gives Eli Manning an important weapon in the passing game. The Giants have won three of their last four games, which probably frustrates the fanbase who were hoping for a very high Draft Pick, but the players for the Giants are performing for future employment so won't tank things away.
The Washington Defensive Unit are still playing well so it won't be an easy day for the Giants, but they are going to find it tough to stay motivated if Sanchez struggles as he may well do. One aspect they don't do so well is stopping the run and that may spell trouble with Saquon Barkley showing why the Giants took him as high as they did in the First Round of the last Draft and I expect Barkley to be involved massively throughout this Divisional game.
I do think there will be times when the Washington pass rush rattles Manning and he has to be careful of throwing the ball in those situations, but Eli is still some way better than Mark Sanchez. With the likely better support at Running Back, I think Manning finds a way to move the ball and keep the points coming and the Giants can cover this spread as the road favourite.
The Redskins have a poor record playing after Monday Night Football as they have gone 2-7 against the spread in the last nine in that spot, and I think the injuries have seen the season fall apart for them.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Pick: Nine straight wins has seen the Houston Texans put a 0-3 record firmly behind them as they have taken complete control of the AFC South Division. At the moment they are 2.5 games ahead of the Tennessee Titans and 3 games ahead of the Indianapolis Colts and another win on Sunday would put the Texans on the brink of making the Play Offs.
There may be bigger ambitions perhaps at play for the Texans than simply playing Play Off Football in January and that may be sneaking a Bye through to the Divisional Round. They have the same record as the New England Patriots and are a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs so keeping the winning run going is very important for the Texans.
In Week 13 Indianapolis Colts laid an egg as they failed to score in a road loss at the Jacksonville Jaguars which leaves their Play Off ambitions teetering over the cliff. Andrew Luck had been in great form prior to that game, but I don't want one game to cloud over the fact that the Colts have been playing very well to get back into the Play Off picture.
These two teams played a really close one in Indianapolis which was won by the Texans in Overtime earlier this season and everything is pointing to another close one in Week 14. That makes the points with the road underdog look appealing, but Indianapolis will need Luck to be at his best for that to happen.
You have to respect the Houston Texans Defensive unit which has some quality players in it, but there are also some holes in the Secondary which I would expect Luck to exploit. If TY Hilton can't go it would be a blow to the Colts, but Luck has been well protected by his Offensive Line and I think they can give the Quarter Back just enough time to make his plays down the field much like he did in the first game between these teams.
Marlon Mack didn't have a good outing at the Jaguars last week, but I think he could have some success here as Houston look to stop the pass. Ripping off a few big runs should keep the Texans honest and allow Luck to get back to the strong passing days he had been producing prior to Week 13.
I think Deshaun Watson is more than capable of staying with Luck in a shoot out, but he is perhaps going to be under more pressure than you would expect. The Colts have been able to get a fierce pass rush going and the Houston Offensive Line is not the best, although Watson is a smart Quarter Back to identify pressure and also the athlete who can escape the pocket and make plays with his legs too.
Lamar Miller has been running the ball well for the Texans, but the Indianapolis Colts have played the run well and the Defensive unit have really stepped up from where they were a year ago. There will be drives that the talent of Watson and DeAndre Hopkins will extend, even from third and long spots, but I can't see the Texans blowing out the Colts who will be looking to prove they are much better than the effort showed in Week 13.
The Colts are 4-0-1 against the spread in the last five games in Houston and they have a strong record against the spread against this Divisional rival in recent years. Houston are a hard team to oppose considering how well they have cashed in at the window in recent weeks, but I will take the points with the underdog here.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The first thing you have to note is how poor a record the New England Patriots have in Miami against the Dolphins in recent years despite dominating the AFC East and much of the rest of the Conference. It's not like they have played in Miami early in the season when the focus is not quite as sharp as it will be in Week 14, but a number of the losses have come in December or January and the Patriots can't really afford to slip up in order to gain the best Play Off position.
Once again they have dominated the AFC East and a win over the Miami Dolphins will secure a Play Off spot. However the Patriots are more interested in trying to earn the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and they are currently have a record tied with the Houston Texans and a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs, although the Patriots hold the tie-breaker over the Chiefs having beaten them earlier in the season.
Winning out may give New England every chance of securing the Number 1 Seed so they will head to South Florida with a big goal on their mind. Tom Brady has perhaps shown some signs of slowing down which makes it harder to really believe in the Patriots going on and winning the Super Bowl, but he should have the right support to beat the Dolphins even in a Stadium where Brady has had his troubles.
While Brady may not be playing quite up at the level he can, the Patriots can lean on the running game in this one with Sonny Michel likely backing up the 100 yard game he had against Miami earlier this season. The Dolphins Defensive Line is strong on the ends, but they have struggled to stop the run and the respect for Brady and the passing game will likely mean Michel can produce a very big game for them.
That could open things up for Brady who has quality Receivers in Rob Gronkowski, Josh Gordan and Julian Edelman and the Quarter Back will be aware that Miami could be missing their best player in the Secondary. Brady will get a quick release when he does pass to make sure the Miami pass rush can't disrupt things and I do think the Patriots will be able to move the ball throughout the game barring them melting in the heat of Miami.
Miami will look to do that by controlling the clock and this team have been able to do that when Ryan Tannehill has been at Quarter Back. They have shown they can run the ball effectively and clamping down on the run has been difficult for the Patriots although I imagine Bill Belichick will try and take that away from the Dolphins and force Tannehill to beat them with his arm.
The Dolphins Offensive Line has had some troubles in pass protection of late which would be a concern if they are finding the running lanes harder to come by if the New England schemes are in place. Asking Tannehill to throw to Receivers who have come in to replace some of the injured starters and have consistent success may be too big an ask and I could see the New England Patriots just turning the screw in this one.
There is no doubt the Dolphins are tough to play in South Florida where teams visits and are not used to the temperatures you will find. However the Dolphins are also 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen games against a team with a winning record and they are 6-15 against the spread in their last twenty-one games played in December.
New England are 17-6 against the spread in their last twenty-three road games and they won here two seasons ago in January so I will look for the Patriots to secure a big road win and cover this big number.
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: This may be a non-Conference game, but in a sixteen game season every game means something and that is especially true for the Denver Broncos who are making a late push towards the Play Offs.
At 6-6 the Broncos are not going to win the AFC West which is being dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs, but they are very much in contention for one of the Wild Card spots. There isn't much room for mistakes though as the Broncos know they likely need to win out if they are going to achieve their goals and they will be having to do that without Emmanuel Sanders.
Sanders has gone down with a season ending injury and a team who have traded away Demaryius Thomas to the Texans may be short at Receiver. However the Broncos have a dynamic Running Back duo with Philip Lindsay making a mockery of the fact he was not Drafted in the Seven Rounds of the Draft last year.
Lindsay and Royce Freeman should be able to get the Denver Broncos up by running the ball effectively throughout this game and I think they are going to give the San Francisco Defensive Line real problems to deal with. The Broncos Offensive Line has loved paving the way for their Running Backs and it should make Case Keenum's job that much easier when it comes to making plays through the air against a Secondary that is not that good outside of Richard Sherman.
Keenum has hardly been lighting the board up through the air, but he won't need to make huge plays if Denver are running the ball effectively, while the Quarter Back may also be given short fields if Nick Mullens is not able to have a big game for the San Francisco 49ers.
It should be said that the Denver Defensive unit is not up to the level of the team that won the Super Bowl for Peyton Manning, but injuries are hurting San Francisco all around and Mullens is showing why he was a third string Quarter Back.
Matt Breida is also out of action for the 49ers so the pressure may be on Mullens to push himself more than he would want to in order to keep the 49ers in this one. The pass rush is going to be something for Mullens to deal with, but he should also have some success through the air against a Denver Secondary that has not been as strong as they would have wanted.
However they have been able to turn the ball over and Mullens is having issues with Interceptions blighting his game of late and I think that makes the difference here. He will have some success, but Denver are going to make the big plays at the key times which will help them overcome the 49ers and cover what is a pretty big number for any road favourite with the hook going with the home underdog.
Denver did have a pretty poor record as a road team at the window under Coach Joseph, but they have covered in their last four road games and I think they can do that here.
MY PICKS: New York Giants - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 4 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 9.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New York Jets + 4 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Detroit Lions - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Saturday, 8 December 2018
Boxing Picks 2018- Vasyl Lomachenko vs Jose Pedraza (December 8th)
Any time I come back from a vacation it feels like months have passed when realistically it has only been days.
This time last week I was sitting in Los Angeles and just hours away from seeing one of my bucket list moments come true when watching two unbeaten Heavyweight Champions fight for the Number 1 position in the world.
It was amazing to be out in Los Angeles for the fight but even more so when you think of how dramatic it was and I can't wait to see Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder do it all over again.
The undercard was quality too with the opportunity to see Joe Joyce, Luis Ortiz and Jarrett Hurd in action.
Of course there was some controversy about the scoring in the Wilder-Fury main event which saw the Draw announced. My feeling is that the Draw wasn't the worst aspect of the scoring as some of the early Rounds were very close to call and it doesn't take a lot for those thinking Fury was a clear winner to have a draw on their own cards after the two Knock Downs in the 9th and 12th Round.
However it feels much like the first Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin fight when there was a card that felt WAY out of sync and in this case it was the 115-111 Wilder card. If we had seen two 113-113 scores and one 114-112 to Fury I don't think there would have been as much annoyance at the way the fight was eventually scored, but we will get a chance to see it all again in 2019.
Both will made adjustments and I am very interested to hear Wilder is looking to put on around 30-40 pounds of weight the next time he faces Fury. It could be work against him with his athleticism important, but the American believes it will be the key factor in turning around a fight many thought he had lost.
Tyson Fury was a winner regardless considering where he was mentally and physically twelve months ago and I am proud of the way he has come back. Don't ask me how he got up in the 12th Round though and the power of recovery was so impressive, while I also think he can only be improved the next time round.
I do think the rematch will be next for both Wilder and Fury, although where is the big question- I would love to see them do it in England, but I think the more realistic venues are either Vegas or New York and I think I could be tempted to make another trip across the pond for that one.
That's a matter for another day and we move onto another week when a pound for pound star makes his return to the ring on Saturday.
Vasyl Lomachenko is as good as it gets in Boxing and he will be ready for a Unification fight this weekend before looking for more big challenges in 2019. Also this weekend is the return of Kell Brook and I will have my thoughts on his fight as well as the mess being made by Amir Khan in setting up the fight we all want which can be read below.
Over the next month we have some more big fights to come to wrap up a quality year in the sport, but 2019 is shaping up nicely if the announced fights for the first few months of the year are anything to go by. More of those big fights will likely be set in stone before the end of the 2018 calendar year too and I don't think Boxing has been in a better place for a long time through the Divisions.
This time last week I was sitting in Los Angeles and just hours away from seeing one of my bucket list moments come true when watching two unbeaten Heavyweight Champions fight for the Number 1 position in the world.
It was amazing to be out in Los Angeles for the fight but even more so when you think of how dramatic it was and I can't wait to see Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder do it all over again.
The undercard was quality too with the opportunity to see Joe Joyce, Luis Ortiz and Jarrett Hurd in action.
Of course there was some controversy about the scoring in the Wilder-Fury main event which saw the Draw announced. My feeling is that the Draw wasn't the worst aspect of the scoring as some of the early Rounds were very close to call and it doesn't take a lot for those thinking Fury was a clear winner to have a draw on their own cards after the two Knock Downs in the 9th and 12th Round.
However it feels much like the first Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin fight when there was a card that felt WAY out of sync and in this case it was the 115-111 Wilder card. If we had seen two 113-113 scores and one 114-112 to Fury I don't think there would have been as much annoyance at the way the fight was eventually scored, but we will get a chance to see it all again in 2019.
Both will made adjustments and I am very interested to hear Wilder is looking to put on around 30-40 pounds of weight the next time he faces Fury. It could be work against him with his athleticism important, but the American believes it will be the key factor in turning around a fight many thought he had lost.
Tyson Fury was a winner regardless considering where he was mentally and physically twelve months ago and I am proud of the way he has come back. Don't ask me how he got up in the 12th Round though and the power of recovery was so impressive, while I also think he can only be improved the next time round.
I do think the rematch will be next for both Wilder and Fury, although where is the big question- I would love to see them do it in England, but I think the more realistic venues are either Vegas or New York and I think I could be tempted to make another trip across the pond for that one.
That's a matter for another day and we move onto another week when a pound for pound star makes his return to the ring on Saturday.
Vasyl Lomachenko is as good as it gets in Boxing and he will be ready for a Unification fight this weekend before looking for more big challenges in 2019. Also this weekend is the return of Kell Brook and I will have my thoughts on his fight as well as the mess being made by Amir Khan in setting up the fight we all want which can be read below.
Over the next month we have some more big fights to come to wrap up a quality year in the sport, but 2019 is shaping up nicely if the announced fights for the first few months of the year are anything to go by. More of those big fights will likely be set in stone before the end of the 2018 calendar year too and I don't think Boxing has been in a better place for a long time through the Divisions.
Kid Galahad vs Brayan Mairena
The Featherweight Division is loaded with some serious talent and the unbeaten Kid Galahad very much wants to be mixing with the top names in 2019.
This is seen as little more than tick along fight for the Sheffield man who will be out for the third time in 2018. He admitted himself that he wants to get into the ring four times in 2019 and is hoping Eddie Hearn can set him up with someone like the winner of the upcoming Josh Warrington-Carl Frampton fight to take place later this month.
Leo Santa Cruz, Abner Mares, Oscar Valdez and Gary Russell Jr are other top names in the Featherweight Division, but those names will all be out of reach if Kid Galahad is upset by Brayan Mairena on Saturday.
Mairena came over to the United Kingdom with a single loss from his previous fight having only been involved in bouts in Nicaragua. The defeat to Limber Ramirez has sparked a run of four consecutive losses for Mairena and his last three fights have taken place in the United Kingdom.
First up was the stoppage defeat to Gal Yafai who is recovering from the first loss of his career and Mairena has been little more than someone who is being paid to try and offer a few Rounds to British fighters. This is the fourth time Mairena is fighting since the beginning of September and I think Kid Galahad is likely going to get him out of there double quick.
You have to give Mairena credit for going the full Six Rounds with Reece Bellotti who had built a reputation for his punching power. However Yafai stopped him and felt he could have gotten Mairena out of there very early on if he had not suffered a bicep injury which limited the right hand.
Kid Galahad did see his run of six stoppages in a row come to an end in October at the TD Garden in October, but I expect him to return to that kind of form even against what looks a durable fighter in Mairena. Yafai got Mairena out of there in the Seventh Round but thought it would have been significantly earlier if he had not injured himself and I think Kid Galahad will be the able to do the same in the first half of this fight.
A fourth fight in three months is tough on Mairena and I think a small interest on Kid Galahad putting in a strong performance and securing a first half of the fight stoppage is worth backing. It is only an Eight Round fight so the stoppage needs to come in the first Four Rounds, but I do think Kid Galahad can put it on Mairena and find a way to get it done before heading into 2019 chasing the really big fights.
Josh Kelly vs David Avanesyan
There are some bright prospects in the British Boxing scene at the moment and one of the leading names tipped for the very top of the sport is Josh Kelly.
The last time we saw Kelly it was dismissing Walter Fabian Castillo in the First Round on the undercard of the Oleksandr Usyk-Tony Bellew fight in November and this has to be seen as a big step up for him.
Kelly also has beaten Carlos Molina, a former Light Middleweight World Champion, but Molina has seen better days and David Avanesyan is a different sort of test. Unlike Molina, who was World Champion back in 2014, Avanesyan was a Welterweight World Title interim holder just last year when he was beaten on points by Lamont Peterson although he has since been stopped with some believing his best days are now behind him.
I expect him to be tough and determined, but Kelly is being tipped for much bigger things and I do believe he is going to showcase his talent by breaking down Avanesyan over the course of the fight. Making a statement and getting him out of there is going to be the goal, but Kelly showed in the win over Molina that he won't be too worried if he has to go the full way to beat a rugged opponent with the Rounds all adding to the experience he is earning in each passing fight.
A Ten Rounder does make it more difficult to push on and earn the stoppage, but I think the corner could sympathise with their man if Avanesyan is beginning to be peppered with shots. In the first half of the fight I think Kelly uses his speed to make sure he is hitting Avanesyan and knocking some of the fight out of him and I expect the British fighter to turn it on in the second half of the fight.
The Welterweight Division has long been one of the most glamorous in Boxing and there are some huge names that could be on Kelly's list in 2019. Winning the WBA International Title will move him up the Rankings and I think Kelly could be looking at someone like Jesse Vargas if he is able to win this fight.
Adam Booth won't let Kelly overlook anyone though and I think he puts in a statement kind of performance by breaking down Avanesyan and stopping him in the second half of this fight.
Kell Brook vs Michael Zerafa
Kell Brook is back this weekend as he fights for the second time in 2018 and there seems to be a new fire in the belly of the former World Champion. While I can't imagine he has overlooked Michael Zerafa, Brook has been speaking about rematches with current WBC Champion Shawn Porter as well as Errol Spence Jr who remains the IBF Champion after taking that belt from Brook at Bramall Lane last year.
There is also the potential Brook will move up to Light Middleweight for a shot at one of the big name Champions in that Division, especially as this fight is a final eliminator for a crack at Jarrett Hurd's WBA World Title.
Big things are ahead, but none of that will matter if Brook can't beat Australian Michael Zerafa who has not really mixed in the best company.
The best name on his record is Peter Quillan who was able to stop Zerafa in the Fifth Round in the Middleweight Division. This is the fourth fight down at Light Middleweight for the Australian, but it is a huge task for him against Kell Brook and I really don't think this is going to be a really long night for the Sheffield man.
You would like to think Brook would want to get some Rounds under his belt having had just a couple of Rounds against Siarhei Rabchanka since losing his World Title to Errol Spence in May 2017, but Brook looks in fantastic shape and he seems very comfortable with his team which should mean he can produce a big performance.
You know anyone coming from Australia is going to have heart and I expect that from Zerafa, but I can't see this getting into the second half of the fight and will be backing Brook to finish things early and make sure the other big names remember who he is.
I've mentioned some names that could be next for Kell Brook, but the one most wanted to see was Amir Khan who signed with Eddie Hearn earlier this year for a three fight deal. Most assumed it was the last major obstacle in the way of a grudge domestic fight which would have made both Khan and Brook significant money and arguably more than anything they could earn fighting anyone else.
Khan went life and death with Samuel Vargas but ultimately won the first two fights in his deal with Hearn and last month it seemed like some sort of agreement had been reach between the fighters.
Since then other issues have arisen and I am now convinced Khan just simply does not want this fight. The talk is he has been offered a fight with Terence Crawford at Madison Square Garden in the first quarter of 2019, but it also sounds like it will be for less money than what he would earn fighting Brook.
Ultimately I think Khan just doesn't believe he can beat Brook and barring a huge U-turn, I would now be surprised if these two fighters ever get in the ring to face each other. Eddie Hearn has said if it doesn't happen next it won't happen and I very much tend to agree with him as the British public won't want to see it if either fighter was to lose again.
I don't think Khan is the fighter he once was so Crawford will be a huge favourite if that is the direction that the Bolton man goes. It is a shame if we don't get Brook and Khan and with both blaming each other for the failure to reach a deal I think the horse may already have bolted for this one.
Isaac Dogboe vs Emanuel Navarrete
He is from Ghana by birth, but Isaac Dogboe is one of the British World Champions although perhaps not as well known as some of the others out there. That may have something to do with the fact he is promoted by Bob Arum and have never fought on a card in the United Kingdom, but British Boxing fans will be proud of him.
Dogboe is a dual national with Ghana and Britain and both countries will be very pleased to see how he has moved through to the top of the Super Bantamweight Division. Two top performances in America with two stoppage wins behind him will have increased Dogboe's stock, particularly as one of them came against Jessie Magdaleno who had been an unbeaten home fighter before being stopped in the Eleventh Round in what was a good fight.
The other Champions will be on the mind of Dogboe going into 2019, but he must remain focused as he takes on Emanuel Navarrete who comes from Mexico and has a strong record on paper. This is the first time Navarrete will be fighting outside of his home country but Jaime Munguia showed that there are some seriously talented fighters from that country who may not quite have made their name outside of Mexico just yet.
Like Munguia, Navarrete does look tall for the Division and he has a strong Knock Out ratio which has to be respected, although unlike Munguia he does not have an unbeaten record.
It may take Dogboe some time to get to grips with the height of Navarrete and I would not be surprised if the early Rounds are a little difficult for the Champion. However Dogboe has plenty of power of his own and I will be looking for him to wear down Navarrete over the course of the Twelve Rounds and eventually begin to break him down in the second half of the fight.
This could be an interesting bout on the undercard of the main event at Madison Square Garden and I am looking forward to seeing Dogboe again. He can extend his run of six stoppages in a row and I will look for the World Champion to find the finish in the second half of the fight as he hurts Navarrete to the body and slows him down enough to put the finishing touches on him.
Vasyl Lomachenko vs Jose Pedraza
There will be a few names bandied about when you hear talk about the 'Pound for Pound' Number 1 in Boxing, but for me Vasyl Lomachenko should be top of the list.
The Ukrainian returns on Saturday night at Madison Square Garden after recovering from an injury suffered in the win over Jorge Linares and Lomachenko will be involved in his first Unification fight. It's more about legacy than World Titles for Lomachenko who is chasing the biggest names and who is willing to go up the Divisions to find them.
Not many have been able to stand with Lomachenko who is all rhythm and movement, while having enough pop to break the heart of so many who face him. The referee had to stop the last fight between Lomachenko and Linares, but prior to that four straight fighters had called it a day on their stool which is a remarkable sequence.
There have been some very strong names on the Lomachenko resume in that time too and I am not convinced Jose Pedraza is amongst those elite fighters even if he is the WBO Lightweight Champion. I have to credit Pedraza for recovering to this level having seen Gervonta Davis beat him up over Seven Rounds, but this is as tough a challenge for the Puerto Rican and I think it would be a morale victory if he is able to last the full Twelve Rounds.
It's going to be tough to do that and Lomachenko's comments in the lead up to the fight suggest he is feeling very healthy and is ready to put this fight to bed very quickly. He has compared it to his win over Miguel Marriaga and believes Pedraza's style is similar and Lomachenko was able to get the win in the Marriaga fight in Seven Rounds.
I feel this fight is going to reach the midway stage before Lomachenko is able to turn the screw and get the job done. I can see the early Rounds just seeing Lomachenko getting comfortable in the ring again having not fought since May, but by the Fourth he should be beginning to exert all control.
The ending may come a little after that and I can see Lomachenko surpassing Gervonta Davis and perhaps getting rid of Pedraza a Round or two earlier. Backing the Ukrainian star to finish this fight between the Fifth and Eighth looks about right to me and I will look for Lomachenko to do that, perhaps with another 'NoMasChenko' moment.
MY PICKS: Kid Galahad to Win Between 1-4 @ 4.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Josh Kelly to Win Between 6-10 @ 2.37 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Kell Brook to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Isaac Dogboe to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Vasyl Lomachenko to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Vasyl Lomachenko to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)
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