This has been a solid week after a number of successes on Wednesday, but there is still time for things to turn sour.
That means I have to make sure the research being put into these Tennis Picks continue to hit the mark as they have so far this week.
I've also had some fortune on my side which had been missing earlier in the season. A couple of breaks at key moments and players saving a host of break points was part of the strong day on Wednesday, but it feels like those situations are beginning to even up from some of the terrible luck I was having earlier this season.
On Thursday the Quarter Final matches at WTA Dubai will be completed, while the other four tournaments will complete their Second Round matches and set up their Quarter Final matches for Friday.
I am looking to keep the positive momentum going with these Tennis Picks.
Karen Khachanov - 2.5 games v Mischa Zverev: The first pick from Thursday will come from the ATP Marseille event and this is the first pick I am making from this tournament this week.
It isn't the deepest field, but this Second Round match looked intriguing even if Karen Khachanov has lost his two previous matches against Mischa Zverev.
I am a big fan of Khachanov and I think he is destined to be a top 10 player as he gains further experience on the Tour. His numbers in the early part of 2018 have been significantly improved compared to previous years, especially on the serve although Khachanov does have room for improvement when it comes to the break of serve.
However I think Khachanov can earn some opportunities against Zverev who has been struggling in 2018. I am still not completely convinced that Zverev is completely healthy as his service numbers have not been that impressive considering he has a big serve and looks to cut off angles at the net very quickly.
Zverev has returned a little better than I would expect from him, but I think he will have difficulty against Khachanov who is serving huge. I think the youngster can work through some tough moments to come through this Second Round match and he has been performing at a higher level than Zverev which should see Khachanov cover this number of games.
Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 games v Jared Donaldson: There are a couple of really good young players on the ATP Tour who have already made an impact at the highest level. One of those is Denis Shapovalov who looks to potentially be the best of the 'Next Gen' of players coming through the Ranks and he is taking part in a Second Round match at Delray Beach on Thursday.
The serve is already a big weapon for Shapovalov and I think he can use that to put plenty of pressure on Jared Donaldson who simply has not been able to produce off that shot to the same level as the young Canadian.
Donaldson is also a young player with a decent future in the game, but I think he could be under some significant scoreboard pressure in this one.
Shapovalov does have room to improve when it comes to the return of serve, but I think he will have a few opportunities against Donaldson while also being able to limit the break point chances his opponent is able to create.
The hard courts are a very comfortable surface for Shapovalov and I think he can progress in straight sets which should be enough to earn a cover of this number of games.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: It is great to see Juan Martin Del Potro back amongst the very best players on the ATP Tour, although it is also clear that he is not quite up to the level he once was able to produce on the Tour.
Playing in Delray Beach has been a lot of fun for Del Potro having won the title once before and reaching the Semi Final in each of the last two seasons. His win over Jeremy Chardy came in impressive fashion and I think he will beat Frances Tiafoe in this Second Round match.
These two met at the Australian Open and it was a fairly comfortable day for Del Potro who won with at least one break in each of the sets in a straight sets victory. Del Potro has continued to serve very well, which will put his young opponent under pressure, and the return has been good enough to see opponents fall away mentally by the scoreboard pressure.
Tiafoe may have some more success having played Del Potro recently and knowing what he would need to do to make this a more competitive match. However he is still not producing to the same level as what Del Potro can and I would expect the Argentinian to find a way to earn at least a break more in a straight sets victory in this Second Round encounter.
The number of games to be covered is a big one in a best of three set match. However I do think Del Potro is going to be able to have enough break points to at least have a chance to do that and I like the way he has been playing so will back him to cover here.
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Naomi Osaka: After winning her first set against Qiang Wang 6-1, it looked like Elina Svitolina would be able to move through to the Quarter Final much easier than it turned out being. She spent more time on court than she would have liked and Svitolina will feel she has to be better if she is going to beat Naomi Osaka in this match.
Osaka also spent longer on court than was perhaps needed as she blew a 5-2 lead in the second set of her own match before seeing off Anett Kontaveit in a second set tie-breaker.
The Japanese player has been in good form in 2018, although it has to be said that she has struggled to remain competitive in her losses. She will be tested by Elina Svitolina even if she has won their last two matches because the latter is much stronger on the court than she was in 2016 when those matches were played.
Svitolina has the superior returning numbers which can be critical in a match where both players have decent serves and will be looking to earn plenty of cheap points.
I think Osaka will have her moments too, but Svitolina should be the stronger player with the better numbers on the day and I think that will help her win this Quarter Final and cover a number of games that I expected to be at least one higher than it is.
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: After having to come through a really tough battle to beat Carla Suarez Navarro, Karolina Pliskova will know she is in for another difficult day when she faces Angelique Kerber in this Quarter Final.
While there are some similarities with the way Suarez Navarro and Kerber will approach things, the latter is a former World Number 1 who is playing very close to the level she produced in 2016 when getting to that position.
Kerber is perhaps a little vulnerable when it comes to her serve, but she has been able to protect it with strong defensive skills and the ability to quickly turn things from defence to attack. That is going to be an issue for Pliskova who can stumble when being asked to play more balls than she would normally be accustomed to.
The Czech player wasn't playing at her best on Wednesday and her own serve has been surprisingly attackable in recent matches. Pliskova will need to serve far better if she is going to win this match and I think that may be a big ask on current form.
She should have chances against the Kerber serve at times, but I think ultimately the defensive work from the German will help her win and cover in this Quarter Final.
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 games v Caroline Garcia: I had to add this pick later than the others simply because the markets had not been released with Garbine Muguruza finishing late in the day in Dubai.
It was actually late in the evening before the Spaniard was able to move through to the Quarter Final and my biggest concern has to be the recovery time between the Second Round win over Catherine Bellis and this Quarter Final against Caroline Garcia.
Even with that in mind, I expect Muguruza to frank her win over Garcia in Doha last week and I am looking for her to cover this win too.
She is being asked to cover the same number of games in this Quarter Final and she managed to do that after dropping the first set last week. However it was clear that Muguruza was the better return player on the day and I expect her to show off that side of her game in this match too.
As much as I like Garcia as a player, she is heavily reliant on the serve working to its best and someone like Muguruza should be able to crunch a few returns to put the Frenchwoman under pressure. Garcia has been serving well enough this week to beat the opponents she has, but I think this is a step up and her own return game is not as strong as some of the other players in the top 10 of the World Rankings.
I think that shows up here and sees Muguruza win and cover against Garcia for a second week in a row on the hard courts.
MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 13-5, + 12.94 Units (36 Units Staked, + 35.94% Yield)
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Thursday, 22 February 2018
Wednesday, 21 February 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (February 21st)
The first couple of days of this week have gone pretty well for the Tennis Picks and we move onto the Second Round matches on Wednesday.
Time has been an issue on Tuesday evening which means I will just place the Tennis Picks for Wednesday below. It feels like a day where the favourites in the WTA Dubai tournament are going to have a lot of success and any Picks from Rio de Janeiro and Delray Beach will be added on Wednesday.
I will also update the weekly totals at that time.
MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Time has been an issue on Tuesday evening which means I will just place the Tennis Picks for Wednesday below. It feels like a day where the favourites in the WTA Dubai tournament are going to have a lot of success and any Picks from Rio de Janeiro and Delray Beach will be added on Wednesday.
I will also update the weekly totals at that time.
MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Tuesday, 20 February 2018
Midweek Football Picks 2018 (February 20-22)
I have not really ever been a fan of the way the Last 16 of the Champions League is played over four weeks, but I guess it does allow for fans to see more of the Second Round ties.
It might have something to do with waiting until last for Manchester United to get their Second Round First Leg underway- patience is a virtue, but not when you just want to get the Champions League going again after waiting two months.
The English clubs all had a good first week back in European action with Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal virtually assured a place in the next Round after recording thumping away wins. Tottenham Hotspur are also the favourites to see off Juventus after coming from 2-0 down in Turin, but now the attention turns to Chelsea and Manchester United.
Both teams face difficult challenges from Spain on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively and these two are involved in the stand out ties of the week in the Champions League.
On Thursday the attention will turn to the completion of the Europa League Last 32 Round with the draw for the Last 16 made on Friday.
Monday night proved to be of huge significance in England as Wigan Athletic shocked Manchester City by beating them in the FA Cup yet again. That's the third time in six seasons The Latics have beaten Manchester City in this Cup and it ended all talk of the Quadruple for the latter.
It just goes to show how big an achievement it was for the Manchester United 1998/99 team to go on and win 'The Treble' (I mean the real Treble too) and Manchester City are under some pressure now to add to the Premier League that they have had in control for a couple of months.
This weekend they face Arsenal in the League Cup Final and another defeat in a domestic Cup competition can't be contemplated by the fans.
I have written a short piece about Manchester United and the decisions Jose Mourinho has to make to get the best out of his top players. That can be read here and was written in the days after the 1-0 loss to Newcastle United.
Now onto the European Picks from this midweek's action.
Bayern Munich v Besiktas Pick: After finishing 2nd in their Champions League Group, Bayern Munich had to be over the moon when they were paired with Besiktas in the Last 16 of the competition. That isn't to say anyone at the club are going to be taking anything for granted in this tie, but Bayern Munich could have had a much bigger test in this Round having finished behind Paris Saint-Germain.
The German giants look in much better shape now than they did back in September when crushed in the French capital by Paris Saint-Germain. 13 straight wins has given Bayern Munich some momentum and the squad looks as healthy as it has at any stage in the 2017/18 season.
The First Leg is played at home this week and Bayern Munich have been scoring goals for fun in recent weeks in front of their own fans. Defensively they have looked a little suspect which is a concern the further they progress in the Champions League, but the goals being scored means Bayern Munich have to feel they can put themselves in a commanding position in the tie before the Second Leg in Istanbul.
Besiktas will be looking to avoid that fate on Tuesday in the First Leg and they will travel to Bayern Munich with some confidence having won 4 of their last 5 away Champions League ties including all 3 played this season. In that time Besiktas have won in Napoli, Porto, Monaco and against Bundesliga's own Leipzig.
However playing Bayern Munich feels like another step up for Besiktas as they take on one of the favourites to win the Champions League. The lack of away clean sheets has to be a concern for Besiktas too, and Bayern Munich have scored 11 goals in their 3 home games following the Winter Break.
Bayern Munich also scored three times in each of their home wins in the Champions League Group Stage and they have been very strong in this Round of the competition in recent years. I favour the home side to dominate much of the play and create chances as they have been, while moving into a strong position in the tie ahead of the Second Leg.
I will back the home team to win and cover the big Asian Handicap in the First Leg.
Chelsea v Barcelona Pick: This looked to be the toughest of the assignments for the five English clubs left in the Champions League when Chelsea take on Barcelona over the next month. Recent form for Chelsea may have depleted much of the optimism that the fans may have been feeling, but Antonio Conte has seen his players respond to some difficult results.
Chelsea at least come in with back to back wins and they have only lost 1 of their last 18 home games in all competitions. The home Leg is always going to be very important for Chelsea who were the only English club who failed to win their Group and thus had to face one of the tougher fixtures they could have been drawn with in the Last 16.
There should be some confidence in the Chelsea ranks considering the squad is well rested and looks about as healthy as Conte could have asked. However the draws with Roma and Atletico Madrid in home Group games is a bit of a concern for Chelsea who will have to be significantly better to beat the Spanish League leaders Barcelona.
No one will dispute the talent Barcelona have in their ranks, but it does have to be noted that they are not at the same level as the team that won the Champions League in 2015. This team certainly doesn't travel as well as the odds would suggest with Barcelona coming into the First Leg as pretty strong favourites to beat Chelsea.
Barcelona have only won 1 of their last 5 away Champions League games having drawn 0-0 at both Sporting Lisbon and Juventus in the Group. They have also lost their last 3 away Knock Out ties in the Champions League without scoring and Chelsea have shown they can be very good defensively at Stamford Bridge.
Take away the 0-3 loss to Bournemouth and Chelsea have conceded one other goal in their last 9 at Stamford Bridge in all competitions. The 3-3 draw with Roma and 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid in the Champions League Group Stage is a concern, but I think a rested team who can call upon their first choice back three will feel they can at least contain Barcelona and the damage the away side can produce.
Keeping them out is a challenge, but Barcelona have scored 1 goal in their last 5 Champions League away games and that doesn't inspire confidence in short odds to win here. Historically they have struggled at Stamford Bridge with 4 losses in 6 previous visits to this ground and Barcelona have only scored 1 goal in their last 3 at Stamford Bridge.
Even that was the controversial equaliser in injury time of the 2011 Semi Final which took Barcelona through to the Final on away goals.
Recent form has dented some of my confidence in Chelsea, but I think they can earn a positive result in this one. As good as Barcelona are, they are not the greatest travellers and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if Chelsea had some sort of lead to protect at the Nou Camp next month.
Backing Chelsea on the Asian Handicap to avoid defeat against a short odds favourite is the call for me. I was almost tempted to have a small interest in Chelsea winning with their history against Barcelona, but ultimately a low-scoring draw could also be the outcome and I will just look for Chelsea to earn some kind of positive result.
Sevilla v Manchester United Pick: The last four Europa League titles have been won by either Sevilla (3 times) or Manchester United and these teams meet in a big Last 16 tie in the Champions League with the First Leg to come this week.
The home Leg is very important for Sevilla who have shown improvement since Vincenzo Montella took over as manager at the end of December and this is a team who have proven to be tough to beat on their own patch. They have won 4 of their last 5 games here including beating Atletico Madrid, and Sevilla also have a strong home record in the Champions League where they have won 6 of their last 9 fixtures.
Twelve months ago Sevilla dominated Leicester City in the home Leg of their Last 16 tie but could not take their chances in what ended up being a narrow 2-1 win. That saw Sevilla exit the Champions League having lost in England, while Manchester City won here in 2015/16 and Liverpool were leading 0-3 here in the Group Stage before self-destructing in the 3-3 draw.
That has to give Manchester United confidence especially as they showed they can produce the goods in Knock Out Football in the Europa League last season. Manchester United won at St Etienne and Celta Vigo in those Knock Out Rounds and led late at Anderlecht, while they have won in CSKA Moscow and Benfica in the Group Stage of the Champions League this season.
Recent form does reduce some of the optimism for Manchester United in this Last 16 tie, especially with losses at Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United recently. The failure to score in both of those defeats is an issue for Manchester United, but I think they will have chances here and can cause some problems for Sevilla.
However I also think Sevilla will have their opportunities against a Manchester United defence that has not looked as strong as Jose Mourinho would have liked. While I do think Mourinho will want to set his side up to be tough to beat, I think they will struggle to contain Sevilla and the layers may be caught out with their odds against quotes for at least three goals to be shared out here.
Sevilla home games in the Champions League have been high scoring with their last 7 home Champions League games featuring at least three goals. In all 5 previous home games Sevilla have played against English opposition there have been three or more goals shared out including in the 2-1 win over Leicester City last season and I think their style of play and desire to have a lead from the First Leg will produce an attacking game of football.
Both teams can create their chances in this one and I will back at least three goals to be shared out, even if as a Manchester United fan I would happily take a 0-1 or 0-2 win ahead of the Second Leg back at Old Trafford early next month.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Roma Pick: Both Shakhtar Donetsk and Roma have to view this Last 16 Champions League tie as a major opportunity to reach the last eight of the competition and I think there won't be a lot between them over two Legs.
It is always a tough task for those clubs in Eastern Europe who are coming in off a long Winter Break when European competition resumes. Shakhtar Donetsk are playing just their second game since the Winter Break and that has been problematic in the past, although this is a team who have played very well at home through this season.
They showed what they can do with 3 wins over Napoli, Feyenoord and Manchester City in the Group Stage and Roma have notoriously been poor travellers in the Champions League. However Roma will point to their fightback at Stamford Bridge in the 3-3 draw against Chelsea and their 1-2 win over Qarabag as proof that this current squad have a little more about them.
Roma have been in decent enough form in recent weeks to feel confident about this trip, although previous Roma teams have lost here in 2006 and 2011. This team have won back to back away games, but winning in the Ukraine against Shakhtar Donetsk has been a challenge for better teams than Roma and I think the home team deserve their favouritism.
If this match had been played in a few weeks with more football under Shakhtar Donetsk's belts, I would really favour them at the prices to earn a victory and have a lead on their visit to the Italian capital. However I think the prices are factoring in Shakhtar Donetsk's long Winter Break and the limited football they have played and so it may pay off to back them on the Asian Handicap which returns the full stake if this fixture ends in a draw.
Napoli, who are 16 points clear of Roma in Serie A, lost here earlier this season and Roma do have their difficulties away from home in the Champions League. I wouldn't be surprised if Roma scored here, but I think Shakhtar Donetsk can win this First Leg and I will take them on the Asian Handicap to do that.
Dynamo Kiev v AEK Athens Pick: The 1-1 draw in Greece has put Dynamo Kiev in the driving seat in this Last 32 tie in the Europa League and I expect they are going to have enough to not only see off AEK Athens, but win this Second Leg too.
The onus is on AEK Athens to head to Kiev and to score at least once if they have any chance of making it through to the next Round. That could be a big ask for a team who have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 away European ties.
They are now going to the home of Dynamo Kiev where they have been very strong at the Europa League level even if they have not managed to take that into the Champions League in recent years. However this is a fixture more like what Dynamo Kiev expect to face in the Europa League and I think they will be able to exploit any spaces AEK Athens leave the longer this game goes on.
AEK Athens have to be respected for the fact they have only conceded 1 goal in their last 4 away Europa League ties including at Milan and Austria Vienna. However those goalless draws earned AEK Athens the points they needed to get through to the Last 32 and a goalless draw here means defeat and an exit from the competition.
It should mean more risks are taken by the away team and I will back Dynamo Kiev to exploit that by recording a home win in the Second Leg.
Lazio v Steaua Bucharest Pick: The 1-0 win for Steaua Bucharest in the First Leg of this Europa League tie puts them in a strong position, although Lazio should still feel confident of turning things around in front of their own fans.
It's definitely feeling like a tight situation for Lazio knowing how much an away goal will dent their chances of progressing, while recent form has been really poor for a side chasing a Champions League spot.
However they did earn a confidence boosting 2-0 win over Verona on Monday night and Lazio have generally performed well at home where they have won 6 of their last 7 games in all competitions. Even in the Europa League Group Stage Lazio managed 2 wins from 3 home Group games and they are facing a Steaua Bucharest team who have not travelled well when visiting Italy in the past.
This Steaua Bucharest team have played well this season though, and won 2 out of 3 away Group games in the Europa League while also drawing 0-0 at Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League Play Off Round. I imagine they will look to frustrate the home crowd in this one too by not leaving too many spaces for Lazio to exploit, but I am favouring the home side to work their way through this Second Leg.
It won't always be easy for Lazio, but the home performances have to give the players confidence in keeping two avenues into the Champions League open for next season. The first goal will be absolutely critical and I think if Lazio can get that, they will be able to grind down Steaua Bucharest for a win by a couple of goals that will take them through to the Last 16 of the Europa League.
Leipzig v Napoli Pick: This tie looks like it is already over after Leipzig came from a goal down to beat Napoli 1-3 in Italy last week.
Most will look at that result and think it is probably the best thing for Napoli to exit the Europa League and concentrate on the Serie A title challenge, but manager Maurizio Sarri was not that impressed with the performance and I think he will be looking for a reaction.
It does make Napoli dangerous as we all know the kind of attacking talent they have in the squad and there is every chance Leipzig may decide to sit on the lead they have. However that is not really in the nature of this Leipzig team and the Second Leg could produce fireworks much like the first.
Napoli are chasing at least three goals here so they can't really afford to start slowly and that should leave spaces for Leipzig to try and exploit. There is every chance the game could be really open going into the final 20 minutes with Napoli capable of scoring the goals to at least worry Leipzig, although the bigger concern may be trying to keep the back door shut.
All 3 Napoli away games in the Champions League Group ended with at least three goals shared out as they were beaten 2-1 each time at Shakhtar Donetsk, Manchester City and Feyenoord. The Leipzig home games in the Champions League Group Stage saw both teams score in each game and the last 2 produce three or more goals.
With the situation as it is, I can see these teams combining for another high-scoring game. I do think both teams will score in the Second Leg and I think the spaces at the end of the fixture should mean there are plenty of chances for the third goal to be scored in this one.
Last week the First Leg came to life in the second half with all four goals scored in those last 45 minutes, but there is every chance this one picks up from where that game was left off. Backing at least three goals looks to be the sensible play in this one.
Zenit St Petersburg v Celtic Pick: There were enough chances for both teams to produce a higher scoring game than they did last week, but I am going back to the same market when Zenit St Petersburg and Celtic meet in Russia in the Second Leg of this Europa League Last 32 tie.
I do think Zenit St Petersburg will have benefited from the outing having not played competitive football since December, and they will be confident of turning around a 1-0 deficit as they did against Utrecht in the Europa League Qualifiers earlier this season.
The home form has been very good for Zenit St Petersburg in this competition having won 17 of their last 19 here which includes winning their last 4 this season. They scored at least twice in each of their 3 home games in the Group, although there has to be a slight concern that Celtic created as many chances as they did last week especially as Zenit St Petersburg did not keep a clean sheet at home in the Group Stage.
However Celtic have been poor travellers in European competition and have lost 3 of their last 4 on their travels this season. The exception was a stunning 0-3 win over Anderlecht, and I think Brendan Rodgers is going to set his team up to try and score what could be a critical away goal in this tie.
I have to expect better from Zenit St Petersburg all around after what was a disappointing performance for the most part in Glasgow. The game under their belt will have helped and Celtic are not as dangerous away from home as they are in front of their own fans, while this is a side who have generally struggled in recent years when the European competition has ramped up in the Group Stage.
I also have to think Zenit St Petersburg will be a little better when the chances do come their way, while the defence will give Celtic some opportunities too. The situation of Knock Out Football could also see this Second Leg really open up if there is an early goal to get things going and I like the chances of seeing better finishing to produce three or more goals in this one.
Arsenal v Ostersund Pick: This Europa League Last 32 tie is almost certainly over after Arsenal won 0-3 in Sweden last week and that means Arsene Wenger will likely rotate his squad to keep key players fresh for the League Cup Final on Sunday. A much changed team have played well at the Europa League level before Christmas so there won't be a lot of concern that Arsenal are somehow going to fail to win their first Knock Out tie in European Football for many a year.
The home team will still likely call upon the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Danny Welbeck to pose an attacking threat in this one, but I am also expecting a lot more from Ostersund than what they produced in the home Leg.
That is slightly harsh as I think Ostersund played really well after self-destructing to fall into a 0-2 hole early in the First Leg and they were unfortunate not to score. This week they will be facing a less experienced Arsenal team and I do think Ostersund are capable of scoring a famous goal that their visiting supporters will appreciate.
We have seen the Arsenal 'Cup' team struggle at times this season even if they did win 2 of 3 home Europa League Group games. They had narrow wins over the likes of Doncaster Rovers and Norwich City in the League Cup though and Ostersund showed plenty of promise on the attack last week and were a penalty kick away from scoring in the home tie.
Ostersund have scored in Galatasaray, PAOK and Hertha Berlin in the Europa League this season and I think another week under their belt will mean better fitness and a little more composure when the chances do come their way.
Ultimately Arsenal will still likely be a little too good on the day with the attacking players they are expected to use, but I can see Ostersund playing their part in this one. I will look for both teams to score in a decent game of football on Thursday evening as Arsenal put their name into the Last 16 draw to be made on Friday.
Atalanta v Borussia Dortmund Pick: If this Second Leg is anything like the First, fans are in for a treat when Atalanta try and turn around their 3-2 defeat at the hands of Borussia Dortmund.
It is relatively easy to make a case for both sides in the Second Leg with Atalanta being a strong home team who won all 3 Europa League games here earlier in the season, while Borussia Dortmund have shown a real upturn in form since returning from the Winter Break.
What looks almost certain to occur is for this Second Leg to produce goals and I am going to back at least four to be scored for the second game in a row between these teams.
Atalanta can be patient knowing they need a single goal to win this fixture as long as they keep a clean sheet, but that looks a long shot having conceded in 6 of their last 7 here in all competitions. They are also facing a Borussia Dortmund side who have scored in 15 consecutive away games in all competitions including at Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League.
On the other hand it is hard to see Atalanta failing to score at least once having done that in 15 of their last 17 home games in all competitions. Once again I expect Borussia Dortmund to help having been far from watertight, while an early goal in this one should really ramp up the attacking football.
My gut feeling is that Atalanta can win this game and progress through to the Last 16, but Borussia Dortmund's form has been the superior of the two teams going into the Second Leg which puts me off the home win. However backing at least four goals to be scored looks a very big price with this fixture potentially going the same way as last week thanks to the situation both teams find themselves in.
There is the potential for both teams to be a little more wary of what the other can produce and thus focus a little more on the defensive side of the game, but an early game could throw those plans out of the window. Both teams have shown attacking threat coupled with defensive vulnerability in recent weeks and I will back four or more goals to be shared out.
MY PICKS: Bayern Munich - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sevilla-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lazio - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leipzig-Napoli Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg-Celtic Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arsenal-Ostersund Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atalanta-Borussia Dortmund Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Now onto the European Picks from this midweek's action.
Bayern Munich v Besiktas Pick: After finishing 2nd in their Champions League Group, Bayern Munich had to be over the moon when they were paired with Besiktas in the Last 16 of the competition. That isn't to say anyone at the club are going to be taking anything for granted in this tie, but Bayern Munich could have had a much bigger test in this Round having finished behind Paris Saint-Germain.
The German giants look in much better shape now than they did back in September when crushed in the French capital by Paris Saint-Germain. 13 straight wins has given Bayern Munich some momentum and the squad looks as healthy as it has at any stage in the 2017/18 season.
The First Leg is played at home this week and Bayern Munich have been scoring goals for fun in recent weeks in front of their own fans. Defensively they have looked a little suspect which is a concern the further they progress in the Champions League, but the goals being scored means Bayern Munich have to feel they can put themselves in a commanding position in the tie before the Second Leg in Istanbul.
Besiktas will be looking to avoid that fate on Tuesday in the First Leg and they will travel to Bayern Munich with some confidence having won 4 of their last 5 away Champions League ties including all 3 played this season. In that time Besiktas have won in Napoli, Porto, Monaco and against Bundesliga's own Leipzig.
However playing Bayern Munich feels like another step up for Besiktas as they take on one of the favourites to win the Champions League. The lack of away clean sheets has to be a concern for Besiktas too, and Bayern Munich have scored 11 goals in their 3 home games following the Winter Break.
Bayern Munich also scored three times in each of their home wins in the Champions League Group Stage and they have been very strong in this Round of the competition in recent years. I favour the home side to dominate much of the play and create chances as they have been, while moving into a strong position in the tie ahead of the Second Leg.
I will back the home team to win and cover the big Asian Handicap in the First Leg.
Chelsea v Barcelona Pick: This looked to be the toughest of the assignments for the five English clubs left in the Champions League when Chelsea take on Barcelona over the next month. Recent form for Chelsea may have depleted much of the optimism that the fans may have been feeling, but Antonio Conte has seen his players respond to some difficult results.
Chelsea at least come in with back to back wins and they have only lost 1 of their last 18 home games in all competitions. The home Leg is always going to be very important for Chelsea who were the only English club who failed to win their Group and thus had to face one of the tougher fixtures they could have been drawn with in the Last 16.
There should be some confidence in the Chelsea ranks considering the squad is well rested and looks about as healthy as Conte could have asked. However the draws with Roma and Atletico Madrid in home Group games is a bit of a concern for Chelsea who will have to be significantly better to beat the Spanish League leaders Barcelona.
No one will dispute the talent Barcelona have in their ranks, but it does have to be noted that they are not at the same level as the team that won the Champions League in 2015. This team certainly doesn't travel as well as the odds would suggest with Barcelona coming into the First Leg as pretty strong favourites to beat Chelsea.
Barcelona have only won 1 of their last 5 away Champions League games having drawn 0-0 at both Sporting Lisbon and Juventus in the Group. They have also lost their last 3 away Knock Out ties in the Champions League without scoring and Chelsea have shown they can be very good defensively at Stamford Bridge.
Take away the 0-3 loss to Bournemouth and Chelsea have conceded one other goal in their last 9 at Stamford Bridge in all competitions. The 3-3 draw with Roma and 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid in the Champions League Group Stage is a concern, but I think a rested team who can call upon their first choice back three will feel they can at least contain Barcelona and the damage the away side can produce.
Keeping them out is a challenge, but Barcelona have scored 1 goal in their last 5 Champions League away games and that doesn't inspire confidence in short odds to win here. Historically they have struggled at Stamford Bridge with 4 losses in 6 previous visits to this ground and Barcelona have only scored 1 goal in their last 3 at Stamford Bridge.
Even that was the controversial equaliser in injury time of the 2011 Semi Final which took Barcelona through to the Final on away goals.
Recent form has dented some of my confidence in Chelsea, but I think they can earn a positive result in this one. As good as Barcelona are, they are not the greatest travellers and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if Chelsea had some sort of lead to protect at the Nou Camp next month.
Backing Chelsea on the Asian Handicap to avoid defeat against a short odds favourite is the call for me. I was almost tempted to have a small interest in Chelsea winning with their history against Barcelona, but ultimately a low-scoring draw could also be the outcome and I will just look for Chelsea to earn some kind of positive result.
Sevilla v Manchester United Pick: The last four Europa League titles have been won by either Sevilla (3 times) or Manchester United and these teams meet in a big Last 16 tie in the Champions League with the First Leg to come this week.
The home Leg is very important for Sevilla who have shown improvement since Vincenzo Montella took over as manager at the end of December and this is a team who have proven to be tough to beat on their own patch. They have won 4 of their last 5 games here including beating Atletico Madrid, and Sevilla also have a strong home record in the Champions League where they have won 6 of their last 9 fixtures.
Twelve months ago Sevilla dominated Leicester City in the home Leg of their Last 16 tie but could not take their chances in what ended up being a narrow 2-1 win. That saw Sevilla exit the Champions League having lost in England, while Manchester City won here in 2015/16 and Liverpool were leading 0-3 here in the Group Stage before self-destructing in the 3-3 draw.
That has to give Manchester United confidence especially as they showed they can produce the goods in Knock Out Football in the Europa League last season. Manchester United won at St Etienne and Celta Vigo in those Knock Out Rounds and led late at Anderlecht, while they have won in CSKA Moscow and Benfica in the Group Stage of the Champions League this season.
Recent form does reduce some of the optimism for Manchester United in this Last 16 tie, especially with losses at Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United recently. The failure to score in both of those defeats is an issue for Manchester United, but I think they will have chances here and can cause some problems for Sevilla.
However I also think Sevilla will have their opportunities against a Manchester United defence that has not looked as strong as Jose Mourinho would have liked. While I do think Mourinho will want to set his side up to be tough to beat, I think they will struggle to contain Sevilla and the layers may be caught out with their odds against quotes for at least three goals to be shared out here.
Sevilla home games in the Champions League have been high scoring with their last 7 home Champions League games featuring at least three goals. In all 5 previous home games Sevilla have played against English opposition there have been three or more goals shared out including in the 2-1 win over Leicester City last season and I think their style of play and desire to have a lead from the First Leg will produce an attacking game of football.
Both teams can create their chances in this one and I will back at least three goals to be shared out, even if as a Manchester United fan I would happily take a 0-1 or 0-2 win ahead of the Second Leg back at Old Trafford early next month.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Roma Pick: Both Shakhtar Donetsk and Roma have to view this Last 16 Champions League tie as a major opportunity to reach the last eight of the competition and I think there won't be a lot between them over two Legs.
It is always a tough task for those clubs in Eastern Europe who are coming in off a long Winter Break when European competition resumes. Shakhtar Donetsk are playing just their second game since the Winter Break and that has been problematic in the past, although this is a team who have played very well at home through this season.
They showed what they can do with 3 wins over Napoli, Feyenoord and Manchester City in the Group Stage and Roma have notoriously been poor travellers in the Champions League. However Roma will point to their fightback at Stamford Bridge in the 3-3 draw against Chelsea and their 1-2 win over Qarabag as proof that this current squad have a little more about them.
Roma have been in decent enough form in recent weeks to feel confident about this trip, although previous Roma teams have lost here in 2006 and 2011. This team have won back to back away games, but winning in the Ukraine against Shakhtar Donetsk has been a challenge for better teams than Roma and I think the home team deserve their favouritism.
If this match had been played in a few weeks with more football under Shakhtar Donetsk's belts, I would really favour them at the prices to earn a victory and have a lead on their visit to the Italian capital. However I think the prices are factoring in Shakhtar Donetsk's long Winter Break and the limited football they have played and so it may pay off to back them on the Asian Handicap which returns the full stake if this fixture ends in a draw.
Napoli, who are 16 points clear of Roma in Serie A, lost here earlier this season and Roma do have their difficulties away from home in the Champions League. I wouldn't be surprised if Roma scored here, but I think Shakhtar Donetsk can win this First Leg and I will take them on the Asian Handicap to do that.
Dynamo Kiev v AEK Athens Pick: The 1-1 draw in Greece has put Dynamo Kiev in the driving seat in this Last 32 tie in the Europa League and I expect they are going to have enough to not only see off AEK Athens, but win this Second Leg too.
The onus is on AEK Athens to head to Kiev and to score at least once if they have any chance of making it through to the next Round. That could be a big ask for a team who have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 away European ties.
They are now going to the home of Dynamo Kiev where they have been very strong at the Europa League level even if they have not managed to take that into the Champions League in recent years. However this is a fixture more like what Dynamo Kiev expect to face in the Europa League and I think they will be able to exploit any spaces AEK Athens leave the longer this game goes on.
AEK Athens have to be respected for the fact they have only conceded 1 goal in their last 4 away Europa League ties including at Milan and Austria Vienna. However those goalless draws earned AEK Athens the points they needed to get through to the Last 32 and a goalless draw here means defeat and an exit from the competition.
It should mean more risks are taken by the away team and I will back Dynamo Kiev to exploit that by recording a home win in the Second Leg.
Lazio v Steaua Bucharest Pick: The 1-0 win for Steaua Bucharest in the First Leg of this Europa League tie puts them in a strong position, although Lazio should still feel confident of turning things around in front of their own fans.
It's definitely feeling like a tight situation for Lazio knowing how much an away goal will dent their chances of progressing, while recent form has been really poor for a side chasing a Champions League spot.
However they did earn a confidence boosting 2-0 win over Verona on Monday night and Lazio have generally performed well at home where they have won 6 of their last 7 games in all competitions. Even in the Europa League Group Stage Lazio managed 2 wins from 3 home Group games and they are facing a Steaua Bucharest team who have not travelled well when visiting Italy in the past.
This Steaua Bucharest team have played well this season though, and won 2 out of 3 away Group games in the Europa League while also drawing 0-0 at Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League Play Off Round. I imagine they will look to frustrate the home crowd in this one too by not leaving too many spaces for Lazio to exploit, but I am favouring the home side to work their way through this Second Leg.
It won't always be easy for Lazio, but the home performances have to give the players confidence in keeping two avenues into the Champions League open for next season. The first goal will be absolutely critical and I think if Lazio can get that, they will be able to grind down Steaua Bucharest for a win by a couple of goals that will take them through to the Last 16 of the Europa League.
Leipzig v Napoli Pick: This tie looks like it is already over after Leipzig came from a goal down to beat Napoli 1-3 in Italy last week.
Most will look at that result and think it is probably the best thing for Napoli to exit the Europa League and concentrate on the Serie A title challenge, but manager Maurizio Sarri was not that impressed with the performance and I think he will be looking for a reaction.
It does make Napoli dangerous as we all know the kind of attacking talent they have in the squad and there is every chance Leipzig may decide to sit on the lead they have. However that is not really in the nature of this Leipzig team and the Second Leg could produce fireworks much like the first.
Napoli are chasing at least three goals here so they can't really afford to start slowly and that should leave spaces for Leipzig to try and exploit. There is every chance the game could be really open going into the final 20 minutes with Napoli capable of scoring the goals to at least worry Leipzig, although the bigger concern may be trying to keep the back door shut.
All 3 Napoli away games in the Champions League Group ended with at least three goals shared out as they were beaten 2-1 each time at Shakhtar Donetsk, Manchester City and Feyenoord. The Leipzig home games in the Champions League Group Stage saw both teams score in each game and the last 2 produce three or more goals.
With the situation as it is, I can see these teams combining for another high-scoring game. I do think both teams will score in the Second Leg and I think the spaces at the end of the fixture should mean there are plenty of chances for the third goal to be scored in this one.
Last week the First Leg came to life in the second half with all four goals scored in those last 45 minutes, but there is every chance this one picks up from where that game was left off. Backing at least three goals looks to be the sensible play in this one.
Zenit St Petersburg v Celtic Pick: There were enough chances for both teams to produce a higher scoring game than they did last week, but I am going back to the same market when Zenit St Petersburg and Celtic meet in Russia in the Second Leg of this Europa League Last 32 tie.
I do think Zenit St Petersburg will have benefited from the outing having not played competitive football since December, and they will be confident of turning around a 1-0 deficit as they did against Utrecht in the Europa League Qualifiers earlier this season.
The home form has been very good for Zenit St Petersburg in this competition having won 17 of their last 19 here which includes winning their last 4 this season. They scored at least twice in each of their 3 home games in the Group, although there has to be a slight concern that Celtic created as many chances as they did last week especially as Zenit St Petersburg did not keep a clean sheet at home in the Group Stage.
However Celtic have been poor travellers in European competition and have lost 3 of their last 4 on their travels this season. The exception was a stunning 0-3 win over Anderlecht, and I think Brendan Rodgers is going to set his team up to try and score what could be a critical away goal in this tie.
I have to expect better from Zenit St Petersburg all around after what was a disappointing performance for the most part in Glasgow. The game under their belt will have helped and Celtic are not as dangerous away from home as they are in front of their own fans, while this is a side who have generally struggled in recent years when the European competition has ramped up in the Group Stage.
I also have to think Zenit St Petersburg will be a little better when the chances do come their way, while the defence will give Celtic some opportunities too. The situation of Knock Out Football could also see this Second Leg really open up if there is an early goal to get things going and I like the chances of seeing better finishing to produce three or more goals in this one.
Arsenal v Ostersund Pick: This Europa League Last 32 tie is almost certainly over after Arsenal won 0-3 in Sweden last week and that means Arsene Wenger will likely rotate his squad to keep key players fresh for the League Cup Final on Sunday. A much changed team have played well at the Europa League level before Christmas so there won't be a lot of concern that Arsenal are somehow going to fail to win their first Knock Out tie in European Football for many a year.
The home team will still likely call upon the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Danny Welbeck to pose an attacking threat in this one, but I am also expecting a lot more from Ostersund than what they produced in the home Leg.
That is slightly harsh as I think Ostersund played really well after self-destructing to fall into a 0-2 hole early in the First Leg and they were unfortunate not to score. This week they will be facing a less experienced Arsenal team and I do think Ostersund are capable of scoring a famous goal that their visiting supporters will appreciate.
We have seen the Arsenal 'Cup' team struggle at times this season even if they did win 2 of 3 home Europa League Group games. They had narrow wins over the likes of Doncaster Rovers and Norwich City in the League Cup though and Ostersund showed plenty of promise on the attack last week and were a penalty kick away from scoring in the home tie.
Ostersund have scored in Galatasaray, PAOK and Hertha Berlin in the Europa League this season and I think another week under their belt will mean better fitness and a little more composure when the chances do come their way.
Ultimately Arsenal will still likely be a little too good on the day with the attacking players they are expected to use, but I can see Ostersund playing their part in this one. I will look for both teams to score in a decent game of football on Thursday evening as Arsenal put their name into the Last 16 draw to be made on Friday.
Atalanta v Borussia Dortmund Pick: If this Second Leg is anything like the First, fans are in for a treat when Atalanta try and turn around their 3-2 defeat at the hands of Borussia Dortmund.
It is relatively easy to make a case for both sides in the Second Leg with Atalanta being a strong home team who won all 3 Europa League games here earlier in the season, while Borussia Dortmund have shown a real upturn in form since returning from the Winter Break.
What looks almost certain to occur is for this Second Leg to produce goals and I am going to back at least four to be scored for the second game in a row between these teams.
Atalanta can be patient knowing they need a single goal to win this fixture as long as they keep a clean sheet, but that looks a long shot having conceded in 6 of their last 7 here in all competitions. They are also facing a Borussia Dortmund side who have scored in 15 consecutive away games in all competitions including at Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League.
On the other hand it is hard to see Atalanta failing to score at least once having done that in 15 of their last 17 home games in all competitions. Once again I expect Borussia Dortmund to help having been far from watertight, while an early goal in this one should really ramp up the attacking football.
My gut feeling is that Atalanta can win this game and progress through to the Last 16, but Borussia Dortmund's form has been the superior of the two teams going into the Second Leg which puts me off the home win. However backing at least four goals to be scored looks a very big price with this fixture potentially going the same way as last week thanks to the situation both teams find themselves in.
There is the potential for both teams to be a little more wary of what the other can produce and thus focus a little more on the defensive side of the game, but an early game could throw those plans out of the window. Both teams have shown attacking threat coupled with defensive vulnerability in recent weeks and I will back four or more goals to be shared out.
MY PICKS: Bayern Munich - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sevilla-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lazio - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leipzig-Napoli Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg-Celtic Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arsenal-Ostersund Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atalanta-Borussia Dortmund Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tennis Picks 2018 (February 20th)
There is still a couple of matches to be played on Monday while I am writing this post which will determine whether it has been a good start to the week or not.
I will update the 'weekly total' on Tuesday once all the matches are in the books, but for now I am concentrating on the Tuesday Tennis Picks from the five tournaments being played and the completion of the First Round.
Elise Mertens - 1.5 games v Catherine Bellis: Two young players with a bright future on the WTA Tour meet for the first time in the pro Ranks as Elise Mertens and Catherine Bellis face off in the First Round in Dubai.
It has all the makings of a close match and the layers feel the same with Mertens down as a narrow favourite even though Bellis had a strong run in Doha last week.
Bellis came through the Qualifiers before her run to the Quarter Final, but she has been a little hit and miss on the main Tour with her performances in the main draws she has entered being inconsistent. There is a lot to like about the Bellis game, but she is still developing and someone like Mertens has produced some solid results already in 2018.
The Belgian player won the title in Hobart and then reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open and I am not too worried about her early loss in Doha last week. Overall the numbers Mertens is producing are very positive and I think she is going to be the slightly stronger player both in terms of the serve and return.
However this match could easily need the full three sets to decide a winner as Mertens is yet to really control matches from start to finish. I do think she will eventually prevail and also have enough to cover this number of games too.
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Barbora Strycova: Anyone who doesn't understand how hard Barbora Strycova can make life for any player on the Tour needs to watch some of the matches in which she competes. Strycova is someone who will work hard until the final point is played while she is also very capable of rallying with the top players.
Angelique Kerber will tell you the same thing despite having a dominant head to head against Strycova.
The German is close to getting back to her very best level, but Kerber continues to produce a vulnerable serve which can see her opponents put her under pressure. That is likely to be the case against Strycova whose movement and defensive skills may extract some errors from the Kerber game and give her chances to break serve and keep this match close.
The reason I am backing Kerber is that her numbers to open 2018 have been very strong on the return of serve and I think she is the superior player off the ground in this match. Her own defensive skills have been close to her highest level and I think Kerber will be able to attack the Strycova second serve which should give her plenty of chances of her own to break serve.
Kerber has also produced slightly better numbers all around on her serve compared with last season which should mean she can hold enough times to work through to the Second Round with a cover of this number of games.
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 games v Lucie Safarova: Any player that reaches the top 10 of the World Rankings has to be respected but I still feel there is more Caroline Garcia can get out of her game.
She seems to have got the service side of things going in the right direction, but Garcia's problem remains the return of serve and making sure she is being far more effective on that side of the court. Against the very best players on the Tour I feel that is where Garcia comes up short and perhaps it also makes matches a little more difficult for her than some should be.
Her return will be tested to the full by Lucie Safarova who has continued to produce one of the more effective serves on the Tour. Even in matches against the better players on the Tour Safarova can be tough to break, but we have seen her return game really suffer in those matches too.
That could be the difference in this one as Garcia may not need a lot of breaks of serve to move into a position to cover this number of games. As long as Garcia serves to the standard she has set for herself, I think she can keep Safarova from being able to really get on the front foot against her and that should see her exert the mental pressure which will help create openings.
I think the first set is likely to be very closely contested and I wouldn't be surprised to see a tie-break separate things, but I think Garcia wins the battle of the two solid servers and she can cover this number.
Pablo Cuevas - 3.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: This is the time of the season when Thiago Monteiro seems to play his best tennis and there are a couple of tournaments in his home country where he can thrive. The clay courts are the favoured surface and the conditions in South American should suit Monteiro very much.
His numbers could have been better, but Monteiro is a real battler during this time of the season and that has seen him come back in matches even when it looks like he should be beaten.
Monteiro will need all the fight he has when he takes on Pablo Cuevas who is something of a clay court specialist with his best results coming on this surface. Like Monteiro, Cuevas should enjoy the South American Golden Swing even though he was disappointed to be beaten so early in Buenos Aires at the hands of Gael Monfils last week.
Monfils is a player who has troubled Cuevas throughout their careers, but that should not be the case this week. The Uruguayan has a decent serve which is going to put the pressure on Monteiro, especially with the poor return numbers of the latter, and I think Cuevas has a little more ability on the return to hold the edge in the match.
It is a tough number of games to cover if Cuevas is not at his best and with the way Monteiro should be able to be fight and be energised by the home crowd. However I think ultimately Cuevas will find a couple of more breaks of serve than his opponent which should see him get over this number.
Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: The South American Golden Swing could not have gone any worse for Pablo Carreno Busta who has lost in his first match in Quito and Buenos Aires.
Last week he was a little unfortunate to lose to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, but Carreno Busta has to be hoping to get things turned around having been in poor form for much of the time since the run to the US Open Semi Final.
You would think the return to the clay courts would have helped Carreno Busta who has some very nice numbers on the surface, but so far he has been unable to produce a win.
Carreno Busta could not have asked for better than facing Marco Cecchinato in the First Round in Rio de Janeiro even though the Italian is very comfortable on the clay courts and has won two Qualifiers to get into the main draw. However Cecchinato has struggled when it comes to playing main draw matches at the ATP level, even on the clay courts, and he has found his serve attacked while being unable to win as many return points as he would like.
That may be the reason for another defeat on Tuesday as Cecchinato is going to be put under pressure by Carreno Busta's ability to return on the clay courts. This time I will be looking for Carreno Busta to just hold himself together mentally in this match and work his way to a relatively straight-forward win in the First Round while covering this number of games.
Dominic Thiem - 5.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: One of the best clay court players in the world continues to underline his status as Dominic Thiem won the title in Buenos Aires last week. He now heads to Rio de Janeiro to win another title and I am not worried about Thiem's fitness at this stage of the season when he tends to play his best tennis.
The first half of the Tour is when Thiem is at his best and even producing top tennis in back to back weeks is not something that concerns me about the Austrian. Some players can struggle for that consistency having played as much tennis as Thiem had to up until the Final in Buenos Aires on Sunday, but he has had considerable success on the Golden Swing in past years.
Thiem has a strong record against Dusan Lajovic which includes a relatively straight forward win here in Rio last year. On that day Thiem was the dominant player on the numbers too and he has shown he is very strong at protecting his serve and finding the pressure to put on opponents on the return of serve on this surface.
I do think Lajovic can be a tough out when he is playing at his best, but Lajovic is going to be have to weather some really difficult moments if he is going to challenge Thiem.
Ultimately I think Thiem is playing at a very high level on this surface and I think he can find the breaks of serve to record an impressive win in this First Round match.
MY PICKS: Elise Mertens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-1, + 4.90 Units (10 Units Staked, + 49% Yield)
I will update the 'weekly total' on Tuesday once all the matches are in the books, but for now I am concentrating on the Tuesday Tennis Picks from the five tournaments being played and the completion of the First Round.
Elise Mertens - 1.5 games v Catherine Bellis: Two young players with a bright future on the WTA Tour meet for the first time in the pro Ranks as Elise Mertens and Catherine Bellis face off in the First Round in Dubai.
It has all the makings of a close match and the layers feel the same with Mertens down as a narrow favourite even though Bellis had a strong run in Doha last week.
Bellis came through the Qualifiers before her run to the Quarter Final, but she has been a little hit and miss on the main Tour with her performances in the main draws she has entered being inconsistent. There is a lot to like about the Bellis game, but she is still developing and someone like Mertens has produced some solid results already in 2018.
The Belgian player won the title in Hobart and then reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open and I am not too worried about her early loss in Doha last week. Overall the numbers Mertens is producing are very positive and I think she is going to be the slightly stronger player both in terms of the serve and return.
However this match could easily need the full three sets to decide a winner as Mertens is yet to really control matches from start to finish. I do think she will eventually prevail and also have enough to cover this number of games too.
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Barbora Strycova: Anyone who doesn't understand how hard Barbora Strycova can make life for any player on the Tour needs to watch some of the matches in which she competes. Strycova is someone who will work hard until the final point is played while she is also very capable of rallying with the top players.
Angelique Kerber will tell you the same thing despite having a dominant head to head against Strycova.
The German is close to getting back to her very best level, but Kerber continues to produce a vulnerable serve which can see her opponents put her under pressure. That is likely to be the case against Strycova whose movement and defensive skills may extract some errors from the Kerber game and give her chances to break serve and keep this match close.
The reason I am backing Kerber is that her numbers to open 2018 have been very strong on the return of serve and I think she is the superior player off the ground in this match. Her own defensive skills have been close to her highest level and I think Kerber will be able to attack the Strycova second serve which should give her plenty of chances of her own to break serve.
Kerber has also produced slightly better numbers all around on her serve compared with last season which should mean she can hold enough times to work through to the Second Round with a cover of this number of games.
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 games v Lucie Safarova: Any player that reaches the top 10 of the World Rankings has to be respected but I still feel there is more Caroline Garcia can get out of her game.
She seems to have got the service side of things going in the right direction, but Garcia's problem remains the return of serve and making sure she is being far more effective on that side of the court. Against the very best players on the Tour I feel that is where Garcia comes up short and perhaps it also makes matches a little more difficult for her than some should be.
Her return will be tested to the full by Lucie Safarova who has continued to produce one of the more effective serves on the Tour. Even in matches against the better players on the Tour Safarova can be tough to break, but we have seen her return game really suffer in those matches too.
That could be the difference in this one as Garcia may not need a lot of breaks of serve to move into a position to cover this number of games. As long as Garcia serves to the standard she has set for herself, I think she can keep Safarova from being able to really get on the front foot against her and that should see her exert the mental pressure which will help create openings.
I think the first set is likely to be very closely contested and I wouldn't be surprised to see a tie-break separate things, but I think Garcia wins the battle of the two solid servers and she can cover this number.
Pablo Cuevas - 3.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: This is the time of the season when Thiago Monteiro seems to play his best tennis and there are a couple of tournaments in his home country where he can thrive. The clay courts are the favoured surface and the conditions in South American should suit Monteiro very much.
His numbers could have been better, but Monteiro is a real battler during this time of the season and that has seen him come back in matches even when it looks like he should be beaten.
Monteiro will need all the fight he has when he takes on Pablo Cuevas who is something of a clay court specialist with his best results coming on this surface. Like Monteiro, Cuevas should enjoy the South American Golden Swing even though he was disappointed to be beaten so early in Buenos Aires at the hands of Gael Monfils last week.
Monfils is a player who has troubled Cuevas throughout their careers, but that should not be the case this week. The Uruguayan has a decent serve which is going to put the pressure on Monteiro, especially with the poor return numbers of the latter, and I think Cuevas has a little more ability on the return to hold the edge in the match.
It is a tough number of games to cover if Cuevas is not at his best and with the way Monteiro should be able to be fight and be energised by the home crowd. However I think ultimately Cuevas will find a couple of more breaks of serve than his opponent which should see him get over this number.
Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: The South American Golden Swing could not have gone any worse for Pablo Carreno Busta who has lost in his first match in Quito and Buenos Aires.
Last week he was a little unfortunate to lose to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, but Carreno Busta has to be hoping to get things turned around having been in poor form for much of the time since the run to the US Open Semi Final.
You would think the return to the clay courts would have helped Carreno Busta who has some very nice numbers on the surface, but so far he has been unable to produce a win.
Carreno Busta could not have asked for better than facing Marco Cecchinato in the First Round in Rio de Janeiro even though the Italian is very comfortable on the clay courts and has won two Qualifiers to get into the main draw. However Cecchinato has struggled when it comes to playing main draw matches at the ATP level, even on the clay courts, and he has found his serve attacked while being unable to win as many return points as he would like.
That may be the reason for another defeat on Tuesday as Cecchinato is going to be put under pressure by Carreno Busta's ability to return on the clay courts. This time I will be looking for Carreno Busta to just hold himself together mentally in this match and work his way to a relatively straight-forward win in the First Round while covering this number of games.
Dominic Thiem - 5.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: One of the best clay court players in the world continues to underline his status as Dominic Thiem won the title in Buenos Aires last week. He now heads to Rio de Janeiro to win another title and I am not worried about Thiem's fitness at this stage of the season when he tends to play his best tennis.
The first half of the Tour is when Thiem is at his best and even producing top tennis in back to back weeks is not something that concerns me about the Austrian. Some players can struggle for that consistency having played as much tennis as Thiem had to up until the Final in Buenos Aires on Sunday, but he has had considerable success on the Golden Swing in past years.
Thiem has a strong record against Dusan Lajovic which includes a relatively straight forward win here in Rio last year. On that day Thiem was the dominant player on the numbers too and he has shown he is very strong at protecting his serve and finding the pressure to put on opponents on the return of serve on this surface.
I do think Lajovic can be a tough out when he is playing at his best, but Lajovic is going to be have to weather some really difficult moments if he is going to challenge Thiem.
Ultimately I think Thiem is playing at a very high level on this surface and I think he can find the breaks of serve to record an impressive win in this First Round match.
MY PICKS: Elise Mertens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-1, + 4.90 Units (10 Units Staked, + 49% Yield)
Monday, 19 February 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (February 19th)
Last week proved to be a really big one for the Tennis Picks and rounded off with another winner on Sunday which has made a huge hit on the season deficit.
It hadn't started well and I was wondering whether I needed to change what I have been doing, but finally the numbers started producing the results they have in the past and it is a confidence boost in the system used to select my picks.
This week we have five more tournaments beginning in Bucharest, Delray Beach, Dubai, Marseille and Rio de Janeiro with plenty of big names still out on the court. One of those is a big WTA event (Dubai) and another is the second ATP 500 event of the season (Rio) which means there are some big points on offer.
The situation this week will mean that I will generally have any picks from Bucharest, Dubai and Marseille up first with any from Delray Beach or Rio added to the thread. That is mainly down to scheduling and markets being released later for those two tournaments compared with the other three and I will only add any picks that do fit what I want.
Hopefully another solid week like the one that has just been put into the books can be recorded. That may even turn this season completely around and see if I can get into a position before the end of the month. It is a long season so I won't be 'chasing' picks to do that, but will try and keep the momentum behind me in a bid for another good week from the Tour.
Naomi Osaka v Kristina Mladenovic: There is going to be a drop in the World Ranking Kristina Mladenovic holds, but I am still surprised to see her inside the top 20 in those Rankings. That could all change in the weeks ahead of Mladenovic cannot improve her form as she has a boatload of points to defend through to the end of the French Open.
At the moment it is hard to see how Mladenovic is going to turn things around as she has been in poor form for some considerable time now. 2018 has not started much better for the Frenchwoman and I think she is going to be put under enough pressure by Naomi Osaka which can help the young Japanese player take what she will believe is a big scalp.
There is a lot to like about the Osaka game, but there is also no doubt she is still very learning. She hits the ball big and has some solid return numbers which should make life difficult for Mladenovic though and I also don't like the way the latter has been playing in recent weeks.
Mladenovic has surprisingly poor numbers on the hard court and I think her serve can be very vulnerable when she is not feeling at her best. In 2018 it is Osaka who has been producing the better results on the serve and I think that can be important for her to get through this First Round match where there isn't much between the players.
The Frenchwoman is just 4-17 in her last twenty-one matches and I think Osaka's slightly superior numbers in 2018 can lead to a win in this one with Mladenovic perhaps just playing the big points a little cautiously.
Johanna Konta - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: It hasn't been the start to the season that Johanna Konta would have wanted, especially after the early loss at the Australian Open. However there were signs of her improved form at the Fed Cup before her two wins in Doha last week.
The numbers are backing that up and I think Konta is facing Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova at the right time with the Russian really struggling in the early part of 2018.
Pavlyuchenkova has not served as well as she would have liked, but the bigger concern has to be the poor return numbers. Now she faces an opponent who can be very hard to break down when serving at her best and I am looking for Konta to produce a solid enough serving day to make sure she can earn her place in the Second Round in Dubai.
The courts in Dubai do tend to play faster than most on the Tour and I think both Konta and Pavlyuchenkova hit big enough to cause the other problems. However the issues Pavlyuchenkova is having with her return has to give Johanna Konta the edge in the match and I think she can earn a break more in each set in a straight sets win.
I do think there is more to come from Pavlyuchenkova in the months ahead after a slow start to the 2018 season, but Konta should be too good for her in this First Round match on Monday.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 games v Rogerio Dutra Silva: The performances from Albert Ramos-Vinolas during this Golden Swing in South America have not been bad, but he has to be a little better at the big points to make life easier for himself.
I expect Ramos-Vinolas will be able to do that in this match against Rogerio Dutra Silva, although he will have to deal with the home crowd who should be firmly behind the latter.
However the step up to the main ATP level has been difficult for Dutra Silva despite how well he has played in the Qualifiers and Challenger level events. The numbers highlight that with the difficulty Dutra Silva has been able to have in the longer rallies that develop on the clay courts and I expect Ramos-Vinolas to be able to take advantage of that.
The key to this number of games is taking the chances when they are presented and Ramos-Vinolas has not been quite as effective with the break point chances he has had. I do like the fact that he is playing in a third clay court event now which means Ramos-Vinolas should be comfortable heading into this match though, and I think he will prove to be a little too good for Dutra Silva in a straight sets win.
Roberto Carballes Baena - 3.5 games v Tennys Sandgren: It was a memorable Australian Open for Tennys Sandgren on the court where he made his first big impact at the ATP level.
Things off the court were tougher as some decided to research into the tweets Sandgren had previously put on social media and he suffered something of a backlash. At least he can fly under the radar for a few weeks and concentrate on his tennis, although I won't be surprised if he is dealing with more questions once the Masters events hit Indian Wells and Miami next month.
For now Sandgren has to make use of a new high World Ranking which has meant he can enter events like this on in Rio de Janeiro without having to work through the Qualifiers. The problem is that he has yet to show much capability on the clay courts when he has stepped up to the higher level and now faces something of a specialist in Roberto Carballes Baena who won the title in Quito earlier this month.
The Spaniard has played well in 2018 on the clay courts and he has won a couple of Qualifiers here to keep some of the momentum going which has to help him here.
Of course there is some room for improvement with Carballes Baena needing to do better on the return of serve. He has been serving well enough to keep the pressure on Sandgren and I think the Spaniard can come through with a win and a cover in this one.
Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: I remember when Marin Cilic and Carlos Berlocq met in their sole previous match because of the way Cilic was being irritated by the grunts from the Argentinian. At least this time Cilic will know what to expect and I think he will be too good for Berlocq even in his first match on the clay courts.
There are some questions about the adjustment to the clay courts which Cilic has to face compared with Berlocq who has played only clay court tennis this season. However Berlocq has struggled so far in 2018 with a couple of heavy First Round losses before winning two Qualifiers here.
He is going to be faced by a powerful returner in Cilic who was playing at a very high level on the clay courts last season. Cilic is capable of still getting plenty of cheap points off his own serve to keep the pressure on opponents, but it is his return of serve that has proved to be a huge weapon for him and I think that can help him get into a position to win and cover in this First Round match.
It might take a few games to get used to the clay court conditions, but I expect Cilic to move onto a roll once he does and have the majority of the opportunities to break serve.
Berlocq can be very good on his day, but he will have to stay in this mentally if he is going to earn the upset and I just think Cilic will drain him with the pressurised returns and that should lead to enough breaks of serve to cover this number of games.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: Playing at home should give Thomaz Bellucci a boost in confidence, but it has been a tough few months for the Brazilian. Injury hasn't helped him, but Bellucci may feel he is about to turn a corner having put a few wins together in Buenos Aires last week.
This is not the best match up for him though as Fabio Fognini has beaten Bellucci in all four previous matches and all of those have come on the clay courts.
The Italian can be a hard player to back with his erratic nature meaning it can be difficult to know what to expect from him on any given day. However he does seem to reserve his best performances for the clay courts and Fognini will feel in a good place mentally in facing this opponent.
Fognini is also someone who can be inspired by the passion of the crowd and it should be a good atmosphere with a home player in this First Round match. I do think Bellucci will have his chances at times as Fognini's serve can be very vulnerable on most surfaces and even more so on the clay courts.
He will have to work hard to protect the serve and I think that is where Bellucci can have some success on the return. However Bellucci's serve is yet to return to the level it once was and I think Fognini is able to win and cover in a match that features a few breaks of serve for both players.
MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Carballes Baena - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Season 2018: - 6.90 Units (230 Units Staked, - 3% Yield)
It hadn't started well and I was wondering whether I needed to change what I have been doing, but finally the numbers started producing the results they have in the past and it is a confidence boost in the system used to select my picks.
This week we have five more tournaments beginning in Bucharest, Delray Beach, Dubai, Marseille and Rio de Janeiro with plenty of big names still out on the court. One of those is a big WTA event (Dubai) and another is the second ATP 500 event of the season (Rio) which means there are some big points on offer.
The situation this week will mean that I will generally have any picks from Bucharest, Dubai and Marseille up first with any from Delray Beach or Rio added to the thread. That is mainly down to scheduling and markets being released later for those two tournaments compared with the other three and I will only add any picks that do fit what I want.
Hopefully another solid week like the one that has just been put into the books can be recorded. That may even turn this season completely around and see if I can get into a position before the end of the month. It is a long season so I won't be 'chasing' picks to do that, but will try and keep the momentum behind me in a bid for another good week from the Tour.
Naomi Osaka v Kristina Mladenovic: There is going to be a drop in the World Ranking Kristina Mladenovic holds, but I am still surprised to see her inside the top 20 in those Rankings. That could all change in the weeks ahead of Mladenovic cannot improve her form as she has a boatload of points to defend through to the end of the French Open.
At the moment it is hard to see how Mladenovic is going to turn things around as she has been in poor form for some considerable time now. 2018 has not started much better for the Frenchwoman and I think she is going to be put under enough pressure by Naomi Osaka which can help the young Japanese player take what she will believe is a big scalp.
There is a lot to like about the Osaka game, but there is also no doubt she is still very learning. She hits the ball big and has some solid return numbers which should make life difficult for Mladenovic though and I also don't like the way the latter has been playing in recent weeks.
Mladenovic has surprisingly poor numbers on the hard court and I think her serve can be very vulnerable when she is not feeling at her best. In 2018 it is Osaka who has been producing the better results on the serve and I think that can be important for her to get through this First Round match where there isn't much between the players.
The Frenchwoman is just 4-17 in her last twenty-one matches and I think Osaka's slightly superior numbers in 2018 can lead to a win in this one with Mladenovic perhaps just playing the big points a little cautiously.
Johanna Konta - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: It hasn't been the start to the season that Johanna Konta would have wanted, especially after the early loss at the Australian Open. However there were signs of her improved form at the Fed Cup before her two wins in Doha last week.
The numbers are backing that up and I think Konta is facing Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova at the right time with the Russian really struggling in the early part of 2018.
Pavlyuchenkova has not served as well as she would have liked, but the bigger concern has to be the poor return numbers. Now she faces an opponent who can be very hard to break down when serving at her best and I am looking for Konta to produce a solid enough serving day to make sure she can earn her place in the Second Round in Dubai.
The courts in Dubai do tend to play faster than most on the Tour and I think both Konta and Pavlyuchenkova hit big enough to cause the other problems. However the issues Pavlyuchenkova is having with her return has to give Johanna Konta the edge in the match and I think she can earn a break more in each set in a straight sets win.
I do think there is more to come from Pavlyuchenkova in the months ahead after a slow start to the 2018 season, but Konta should be too good for her in this First Round match on Monday.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 games v Rogerio Dutra Silva: The performances from Albert Ramos-Vinolas during this Golden Swing in South America have not been bad, but he has to be a little better at the big points to make life easier for himself.
I expect Ramos-Vinolas will be able to do that in this match against Rogerio Dutra Silva, although he will have to deal with the home crowd who should be firmly behind the latter.
However the step up to the main ATP level has been difficult for Dutra Silva despite how well he has played in the Qualifiers and Challenger level events. The numbers highlight that with the difficulty Dutra Silva has been able to have in the longer rallies that develop on the clay courts and I expect Ramos-Vinolas to be able to take advantage of that.
The key to this number of games is taking the chances when they are presented and Ramos-Vinolas has not been quite as effective with the break point chances he has had. I do like the fact that he is playing in a third clay court event now which means Ramos-Vinolas should be comfortable heading into this match though, and I think he will prove to be a little too good for Dutra Silva in a straight sets win.
Roberto Carballes Baena - 3.5 games v Tennys Sandgren: It was a memorable Australian Open for Tennys Sandgren on the court where he made his first big impact at the ATP level.
Things off the court were tougher as some decided to research into the tweets Sandgren had previously put on social media and he suffered something of a backlash. At least he can fly under the radar for a few weeks and concentrate on his tennis, although I won't be surprised if he is dealing with more questions once the Masters events hit Indian Wells and Miami next month.
For now Sandgren has to make use of a new high World Ranking which has meant he can enter events like this on in Rio de Janeiro without having to work through the Qualifiers. The problem is that he has yet to show much capability on the clay courts when he has stepped up to the higher level and now faces something of a specialist in Roberto Carballes Baena who won the title in Quito earlier this month.
The Spaniard has played well in 2018 on the clay courts and he has won a couple of Qualifiers here to keep some of the momentum going which has to help him here.
Of course there is some room for improvement with Carballes Baena needing to do better on the return of serve. He has been serving well enough to keep the pressure on Sandgren and I think the Spaniard can come through with a win and a cover in this one.
Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: I remember when Marin Cilic and Carlos Berlocq met in their sole previous match because of the way Cilic was being irritated by the grunts from the Argentinian. At least this time Cilic will know what to expect and I think he will be too good for Berlocq even in his first match on the clay courts.
There are some questions about the adjustment to the clay courts which Cilic has to face compared with Berlocq who has played only clay court tennis this season. However Berlocq has struggled so far in 2018 with a couple of heavy First Round losses before winning two Qualifiers here.
He is going to be faced by a powerful returner in Cilic who was playing at a very high level on the clay courts last season. Cilic is capable of still getting plenty of cheap points off his own serve to keep the pressure on opponents, but it is his return of serve that has proved to be a huge weapon for him and I think that can help him get into a position to win and cover in this First Round match.
It might take a few games to get used to the clay court conditions, but I expect Cilic to move onto a roll once he does and have the majority of the opportunities to break serve.
Berlocq can be very good on his day, but he will have to stay in this mentally if he is going to earn the upset and I just think Cilic will drain him with the pressurised returns and that should lead to enough breaks of serve to cover this number of games.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: Playing at home should give Thomaz Bellucci a boost in confidence, but it has been a tough few months for the Brazilian. Injury hasn't helped him, but Bellucci may feel he is about to turn a corner having put a few wins together in Buenos Aires last week.
This is not the best match up for him though as Fabio Fognini has beaten Bellucci in all four previous matches and all of those have come on the clay courts.
The Italian can be a hard player to back with his erratic nature meaning it can be difficult to know what to expect from him on any given day. However he does seem to reserve his best performances for the clay courts and Fognini will feel in a good place mentally in facing this opponent.
Fognini is also someone who can be inspired by the passion of the crowd and it should be a good atmosphere with a home player in this First Round match. I do think Bellucci will have his chances at times as Fognini's serve can be very vulnerable on most surfaces and even more so on the clay courts.
He will have to work hard to protect the serve and I think that is where Bellucci can have some success on the return. However Bellucci's serve is yet to return to the level it once was and I think Fognini is able to win and cover in a match that features a few breaks of serve for both players.
MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Carballes Baena - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Season 2018: - 6.90 Units (230 Units Staked, - 3% Yield)
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