The festive period is here which means four Premier League games for each club over less than two weeks and this could be an important time at the top and bottom of the League table.
With the games coming thick and fast, I will put my picks from the latest round of Premier League fixtures below.
Arsenal v Liverpool Pick: There are four rounds of Premier League games being played between Friday 22nd December and Thursday 4th January so this is the time of the season when injuries and fatigue can be a big factor.
The opening fixture shouldn't be one where the managers decide to ring the changes though as Arsenal take on Liverpool in a match between two of the top five teams in the League table. This could be a fixture with major top four implications down the stretch and it has all the makings of a really good game of football.
I don't think either Arsene Wenger or Jurgen Klopp will be changing the way they approach the game and with both wanting to get forward and score the goals to win the game. The two teams are both much better going forward than defending so it makes sense for Arsenal and Liverpool to want to impose themselves on the other, and that has usually resulted in plenty of goals.
Wenger and Klopp have faced each other four times since the German took over as Liverpool manager and there have been at least four goals shared out each time. Liverpool have got the better of things with 3 straight victories and a draw, including a 3-4 win in the only game played at the Emirates Stadium in that time, while Liverpool have scored at least three goals in all 4 matches against Arsenal.
A couple of weeks ago Liverpool would have been a very appealing price, but their recent form has been much stronger than Arsenal's and that has seen the price come in significantly.
Instead I am going to look for the trend of a lot of goals in these fixtures to continue- recently Manchester United's visit to Arsenal produced four goals and there could have been a lot more that day. Liverpool themselves have scored at least three times in 5 consecutive away games in all competitions, but also look vulnerable at the back and seeing at least four goals shared out between these teams looks to be the call.
That has hit every time Arsenal and Liverpool have met since Klopp took over at Anfield and I will look for this fixture to be the 5th consecutive time that number is reached in what could be a brilliant game of football.
Everton v Chelsea Pick: A few weeks ago you would have picked Chelsea to win this Premier League game with some comfort, but Sam Allardyce has really helped Everton pick up their play. That makes them a threat for Chelsea, but I still think we have yet to really see how much Everton have turned the corner with the fixture list also providing a relief during Allardyce's time with the club.
Some will point to the 1-1 draw with Liverpool as proof Allardyce is making a huge difference, but Everton were second best that day and a similar level of performance will not cut it against Chelsea.
Decisions went their way in the 3-1 win over Swansea City last Monday night in a game Everton trailed in, while wins over Huddersfield Town, Apollon and Newcastle United are solid results but not ones to compare with playing Chelsea.
This is a much different level of test as they are facing a confident team who have won plenty of games in recent weeks and have the talents of Eden Hazard and Alvaro Morata in forward areas to cause problems for the hosts. The 1-0 loss at West Ham United was a disappointment and has a similar feel to this fixture at Goodison Park, but I don't expect Chelsea to play as poorly as they did that day.
In recent years the trip to Everton has been a very difficult one for Chelsea, but they won here 0-3 a few months ago and I still think a young Everton defence are going to have to raise their level to contain the forward thinking players they will meet on Saturday. I don't think Antonio Conte plays a risky eleven like Jurgen Klopp did in the Merseyside derby and I do think Chelsea win here.
All credit has to be given to Sam Allardyce for the improved performances Everton have produced, but this is a big test for them and I expect Chelsea to win on Saturday. When Chelsea are on, they tend to be really on and I can see them winning this one and covering the Asian Handicap too.
Brighton v Watford Pick: Two teams out of form meet on Saturday and both Brighton and Watford have to be looking at the other as the chance to turn things around.
There were at least some positives from the Brighton performance in the goalless draw with Burnley last weekend and they have been better at home. The missed penalty means two points dropped for Chris Hughton's men, but Brighton are a team that will try and get forward and that could pay off against a Watford team suffering with many a defensive issue.
Last weekend it was goal-shy Huddersfield Town who took advantage in a stunning 1-4 win at Watford so Brighton will feel they can create chances and score goals.
Watford themselves continue to be a threat going forward though and that makes them a dangerous team on any given day. They may have lost 2-1 at Crystal Palace recently, but Watford created enough chances to win two games that day and this is a team that continues to look more threatening in the final third than they do at the back where chances are being given up at an alarming rate.
The Hornets have scored in 7 of their last 8 games in the Premier League and I do think they will create chances. However I am expecting Brighton to have more success in the final third than they are used to too and I do think the layers are underestimating the chances of at least three goals being shared out.
6 of the last 7 Watford away games have seen that number of goals hit, and 2 of the last 4 home Brighton games have done the same. With the defensive issues both teams could be facing this weekend, I expect the manager's to want to approach this with a positive attitude and that could result in goals being the outcome.
Manchester City v Bournemouth Pick: Some of the prices on Manchester City to win Premier League games have become as short as you would see in the other European Leagues when the likes of Paris Saint-Germain, Barcelona/Real Madrid, Bayern Munich would be playing. You can't blame the layers either when you think Manchester City have won 16 Premier League games in a row and it is hard to make a case against them winning this weekend.
As much praise as Eddie Howe gets from the media for his style of play, it is also one that the big clubs tend to enjoy playing against. Yes Bournemouth will give it a go, but they are also very open to be attacked and I think that is the reason Howe's team tend to take some heavy losses when playing the top clubs.
That is what the layers are expecting with Manchester City at odds on to win by three or more goals, but it might not be at the forefront of the players minds at this time of the season. With another game in a few days time, Manchester City could easily coast once they get in control of this fixture although they have shown they can be susceptible at the back.
Bournemouth will try and expose those vulnerabilities, particularly if Manchester City have to play a makeshift centre half with injuries hitting them in that area. However this is a team who have failed to score at Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United, while Bournemouth also failed to score in home losses to Chelsea and Liverpool.
They did go ahead against Manchester City when hosting them back in August, but that is a long way away now and the hosts are looking very strong at the moment. I do expect Manchester City to win this one and I am going to back them to win to nil.
That has not worked out for me in recent weeks with late goals hitting Manchester City, while they have only had 1 clean sheet in 5 games at the Etihad Stadium. However Bournemouth could be short in the forward areas they have more winnable games to come and this could be a damage limitation exercise for the visitors.
At almost odds against, I will back Manchester City to win with a clean sheet.
Southampton v Huddersfield Town Pick: When you look at the odds for this game this weekend, Southampton look very short considering the lack of wins they have produced over the last couple of months. However I think the prices are very much based on the fact that Huddersfield Town have not performed that well away from home despite the 1-4 win at Watford last weekend.
Prior to that Huddersfield Town had not scored an away goal since the opening weekend 0-3 win at Crystal Palace and the lack of goals on their travels is still a problem. I say that even though they scored four times at an injury hit Watford last weekend and I am expecting Southampton to be a little more solid than Watford were.
The problem for Southampton is trying to produce the consistent performances which will produce the points they need to get away from any relegation troubles. The best performances have come against the top teams, but those games are much harder to produce points in and that is a reason Southampton are only 3 points clear of the bottom three.
A lack of clean sheets has to be a concern for Southampton too considering that has been the platform for their successes in recent years, but they have a chance to get one here. I am still not convinced that Huddersfield Town have a consistent goal threat away from the John Smith's Stadium and I do think Southampton have enough defensively to contain them.
Set pieces could be a problem as is the injuries to the two full backs, but I think the home team are worth a small interest to win this game with a clean sheet. The Saints have scored in 5 of their last 6 at St Mary's so I would expect them to find a way to goal in this one and it is a big price for Southampton to win with a clean sheet when you think of how much Huddersfield Town have struggled away from home.
All 7 away League goals have come in two League games, so that means Huddersfield Town have not scored in 7 of 9 on their travels. I will look for Southampton to win with a clean sheet and place a small interest in that to happen.
Swansea City v Crystal Palace Pick: Paul Clement has been relieved of his role as manager of Swansea City and it is going to be interesting to see how his players react. This is a club that looks to be heading towards the Championship, but Swansea City managed to survive a similar situation last season.
A 1-2 win at Crystal Palace sparked the confidence and they face the same opponents this weekend, although Roy Hodgson has got his Palace side playing with plenty of belief. The win at Leicester City last weekend was very, very impressive and this is a side that is can score goals.
However it has not been the same away from Selhurst Park outside of those goals in the win at the King Power Stadium last weekend. That makes the prices on Palace as the favourites a little less appealing as they may have been if they had been performing to that standard more regularly.
One thing they have got right is keeping clean sheets away from home and that is going to give Crystal Palace the chance to win here. Swansea City have struggled for goals themselves so a Crystal Palace clean sheet this weekend is not a stretch to imagine and that should mean they have every chance of winning the game.
It is only the decent enough defensive performances from Swansea City that are really encouraging me here though and I think a small interest in Crystal Palace winning is the call.
West Ham United v Newcastle United Pick: The financial rewards for playing in the Premier League are so great these days that teams tend not to wait too long to change managers if things are going wrong. West Ham United are one of a number of clubs who have already made a change and the incoming David Moyes has helped The Hammers produce some positive results to take them out of the bottom three.
They will be confident of getting back on track this weekend despite the League Cup Quarter Final loss at Arsenal during the week. The absence of Manuel Lanzini is a blow, but Moyes is getting the best out of his squad and the confidence of the players should be in a much better place than Newcastle United.
A takeover at Newcastle United was expected to be concluded by now, but the poor run of form has dropped them into the bottom three which has caused problems in the board room. With Mike Ashley unlikely to take a step back from any negotiation, Rafa Benitez is almost left in limbo with a squad that doesn't look good enough at this level.
The January transfer window was supposed to be the saviour for Newcastle United, but the takeover being up in the air will mean funds are limited. That isn't helping Benitez in his plans, while it is clear the manager has fallen out with some of his players who could potentially make a difference.
This is a team who are conceding plenty of goals and creating little and that is a reason they have lost 8 of their last 9 Premier League games.
With West Ham United playing with a little more confidence and a system in place which is working for them, I do think they can make the odds against quotes for a home win look a little too big. It can be hard to trust a team that has their own struggles in front of goal, but defensively Moyes has put a system in place which is getting the best out of his squad of players.
That could be enough to at least give West Ham United every chance of securing another vital win at the London Stadium and I will back them to do that this weekend.
Burnley v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This is going to be a real test for Tottenham Hotspur this weekend which makes their short odds for a victory look incredibly stingy. For a team that has won none of their last 5 away Premier League games and lost 4 of those it is hard to trust Tottenham Hotspur although I am leaning towards them snapping that run.
That may be a surprise when you think of how well Burnley have played all season, but this is a team who have lacked goals. I also think they have been riding their luck a little over the last couple of weeks having been outplayed by Stoke City before securing a late 1-0 win over them at Turf Moor, while last weekend Brighton missed a penalty in a goalless draw with Burnley.
James Tarkowski could miss out this weekend which means Burnley's solid backline are potentially missing a couple of players, while their home record is strong but comes against mainly teams who are lower down the League table. The one 'top six' club' Burnley have hosted ended in a controversial 0-1 defeat to Arsenal and I think Tottenham Hotspur are playing better than their own recent results.
This is a team who can create chances and the return of Davinson Sanchez offers Tottenham Hotspur a little more strength at the back. Even though they have lost 4 of their last 5 away Premier League games, Tottenham Hotspur have lost 3 of those against teams in the top five. The other at Leicester City came in a game where Tottenham Hotspur should have earned a result with the chances created, but I don't think Burnley are going to blow them away.
Set pieces have to be defended properly, but I do think Tottenham Hotspur will have the better of the game over ninety minutes. If Burnley play as they have the last couple of games, I do think Tottenham Hotspur will have enough in the final third to win this one, but how to back them?
The best way may be backing Spurs to win a game where fewer than four goals are shared out- that is offered at odds against and I can't see this being a fixture that either side is able to score a lot of goals.
Burnley games have tended to be tight and I think Tottenham Hotspur are not in a position to blow any team away. I can see Tottenham Hotspur winning a tight one though as they show a little more in the final third and I will back them to do that here in a game featuring fewer than four goals.
Leicester City v Manchester United Pick: Both Leicester City and Manchester United suffered League Cup Quarter Final exits during the week and both will be looking to give their fans some Christmas cheer in the final Premier League game before Christmas Day.
The recent form of Leicester City has to be respected with some impressive wins, but the 0-3 loss to Crystal Palace last weekend has snapped some momentum. The Foxes have also been a little up and down at the King Power Stadium and that defeat to Crystal Palace could spark a little downturn in form.
It is a big test for Claude Puel against a Manchester United team who are looking to bounce back from the upset at Ashton Gate. Manchester United have won 3 straight away Premier League games at Watford, Arsenal and West Brom and that is the kind of form which will make them believe they can win here.
I think Manchester United can do that too when you think of the chances Leicester City have been guilty of offering up at home. Even in the 2-1 win over Tottenham Hotspur here, Leicester City could easily have blown their 2-0 lead if their visitors had been a little more clinical in front of goal.
A lack of clinical finishing in recent away games have been costly for Manchester United when you think of the losses at Basel and Bristol City. However they have found their form in the Premier League with at least two goals scored in their last 3 away Premier League wins and I do think that will be enough to secure the three points here.
The pace Leicester City have will cause problems and Manchester United have to respect the counter attacking threat the home team have. However some of their key players had a long outing on Tuesday and I think the first goal can be important for Manchester United as they can then employ their own effective counter attack to put Leicester City away.
It won't be an easy game, but Manchester United are a bigger price than Tottenham Hotspur were to win a game here recently. That looks out of sync to me and I will back Jose Mourinho to get a positive bounce back result for Manchester United.
Manchester United have failed to win 7 competitive games this season, but have won the next one each time. I will look for that trend to continue against a Leicester City team who have lost home League games against Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City already this season.
MY PICKS: Arsenal-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.40 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Chelsea - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brighton-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Southampton Win to Nil @ 2.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Crystal Palace @ 2.50 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
West Ham United @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Featured post
NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (Monday 18th May-Monday 25th May)
We are going to be down to the final four teams in the NBA once Game 7 of the Second Round Series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland ...
Friday, 22 December 2017
Sunday, 17 December 2017
NFL Week 15 Picks 2017 (December 14-18)
This is the time of the year when families are getting ready to celebrate Christmas with each other, but also means a time of the year when the NFL begins to separate out their games to cover a few more holiday games for national consumption.
Week 15 means there is little room for error for teams and this is also the time when you can start looking around to teams who have gotten hot and potentially have a run to the Super Bowl within them.
Unfortunately 2017 is likely to be remembered as one where injuries and suspensions hurt some of the top names in the NFL. The latest to go down is Carson Wentz who had led the Philadelphia Eagles to the best record in the NFC before suffering an ACL injury which is likely going to keep him out until deep into the pre-season in 2018.
It was also a bitter blow for the Eagles who likely have seen their Super Bowl hopes end barring Nick Foles playing the best Football of his career. That has also blown open the NFC and it could all be working out for one team.
The Green Bay Packers.
Aaron Rodgers is back this week after two critical Overtime wins for the Packers, although they have three tough games to win to have any chance to make the Play Offs. If the Packers can do that, I honestly think they could have the momentum to go all the way to the Super Bowl, although there is plenty of football to be played before everything is separated and the two Super Bowl contenders are set.
Like every week, the results can quickly change the way the Play Off picture looks. This week the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers may well decide which of those teams wins the AFC West, while the Los Angeles Rams go to the Seattle Seahawks with the potentially decisive game in the NFC West on the line.
Add in the New England Patriots trip to the Pittsburgh Steelers which could determine the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and Week 15 looks another fantastic week to enjoy.
My current Play Off twelve looks like this:
AFC- Pittsburgh, New England, Jacksonville, Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee and Baltimore.
NFC- Philadelphia, Minnesota, New Orleans, Seattle, Atlanta and Green Bay.
Last week was a disappointing one for the NFL Picks after the last two picks went down, but hopefully this will be a better week all around. Onto the Week 15 Picks.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns Pick: There was some real disappointment in the Baltimore Ravens locker room last week after blowing a big Fourth Quarter lead in the topsy turvy game at the Pittsburgh Steelers. The loss has put them in a difficult position, but the AFC is not a loaded Conference when it comes to the Wild Card places and the Ravens will feel they still have enough to make sure they finish in those spots.
They are a big favourite to bounce back and beat Divisional rivals the Cleveland Browns who look set to be the second team to finish with a 0-16 record alongside the Detroit Lions. The Browns are also trying to recover from what has to be a crushing defeat when they blew a 14 point lead in the Fourth Quarter against the Green Bay Packers in a game they should have snapped their poor losing run.
That loss looks like one that will have confirmed the end of the Hue Jackson era as the Head Coach in Cleveland and there are already some big changes being made by the franchise. While the Browns do have some good pieces to build upon, in today's NFL there is only so far you can go without having full faith in the Quarter Back you trot out onto the field.
DeShone Kizer has shown some promise since his big time Receiving weapons have returned to the starting line up, but some of the mistakes are really hard to ignore. It is hard to see Kizer returning as the starter for too much longer in 2018 with the Browns likely to pick a new Quarter Back, but the last three games gives him a chance to show he should be given a chance to compete for the starting job.
It will be very much on Kizer's shoulders on Sunday as the Cleveland Browns can't really rely on a consistent running game despite how well they have been playing of late. This time they are taking on a Baltimore Defensive Line which knows it is the strength for the Ravens and they have been incredibly strong up front which should limit what Isaiah Crowell is able to do on the ground.
The pass rush is going to be another issue for Kizer to deal with, but the Quarter Back is one that can get out of the pocket and try and make some plays with his legs. That could at least buy a little more time and Kizer is going to be throwing into a banged up Secondary where his big Receivers should be able win their battles and at least give Cleveland the chance to move the ball.
Cleveland will need to do that because the Baltimore Offense looks to be showing a bit more life in recent games compared with the rest of the season. Joe Flacco is beginning to hook up with the long pass, while the Offensive Line have enjoyed opening holes for Alex Collins who has been running very effectively.
It has to be said the Browns Defensive unit has played well enough to give their team a chance to win though and they have a Defensive Line which can be tough to run the ball against. There are playmakers up front who will want to get to Flacco and prevent him having the time to make the big throws as well as disrupting the quick throws which have been a part of the Ravens Offense.
Ultimately I do think Baltimore will have success Offensively to make sure they avoid the upset loss. However it may be a tougher day in the office than the layers think and the Browns in receipt of a Touchdown worth of points has to be considered after seeing how disappointed the Ravens will have been in losing to the Steelers in Week 14.
Games in Cleveland tend to be a little closer with the Browns fanbase always ready for the hated Ravens and the number of points at least protects against another late collapse from the Browns. The Ravens may be 7-1-1 against the spread in their last nine games in Cleveland, but the last three wins have come by 5, 6 and 2 point margins.
You can't ignore how bad Cleveland have been even against the spread, but I think they can play this one closer against a Baltimore team who are off that emotional loss to the Steelers. The Ravens just want to win by any means necessary and I think that could mean a close game and I will take the points here.
Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The Green Bay Packers have got their Christmas wish.
Aaron Rodgers is back to Quarter Back the team the rest of the season.
However it will still need something of a Christmas miracle for the Green Bay Packers to make the Play Offs who have to beat the Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions in consecutive weeks. All of those teams have winning records, but the return of Rodgers certainly feels like the lift that the Packers have wanted.
Rodgers himself has been speaking about 'lifting' his team mates rather than saving the Green Bay season and I think there will be a little better effort from all of the players with their star player back. To be fair to Green Bay, they have come up big in back to back Overtime wins which has kept the Play Off hopes alive although this is a big game for Rodgers to make his return.
Earlier in the season it may have looked a really difficult game for the Green Bay Packers when the Carolina Panthers were playing some stifling Defense. That has not been the case in more recent games and so Green Bay will feel Rodgers is able to spark something significant for them in this one.
The Packers have been able to run the ball effectively in recent games and I expect they will look to keep things going on the ground with the space that is likely to exist now teams can't focus on stopping the run. With some struggles up front that Carolina are dealing with, Green Bay should be able to find some significant yards on the ground and that should at least make things a little more comfortable for Rodgers.
It will be interesting to see how Rodgers takes the first big hit, which will surely come from this tough Panthers team, but I do think he can come in with some confidence. Rodgers has apparently been lights out in practice for two weeks already and the Packers running the ball effectively means the pass rush is just slowed a little.
Some holes have just begun to show in the Carolina Secondary with the issues stopping the run and I expect the Green Bay Packers will be able to move the chains through the air. This all means there is some pressure on the Panthers to respond Offensively as they look to keep their own Play Off hopes going.
The battle at the line of scrimmage is going to be key when Cam Newton has the ball as the Panthers have been able to establish the run very effectively. They should be able to rip off big gains against the Green Bay Packers too who have begun to have a few injuries wear them down up front, although perhaps the Offensive boost can see the Defensive Line go back to the level they have performed at for much of the season.
It is hard to think Carolina are not able to run the ball though and it will be a key to keeping Rodgers and the powerful Packers Offense on the sidelines. Staying in front of the downs and distances is important for the Panthers who have lost some big Receivers even if Newton is capable of having a big game against a banged up Secondary.
Newton has been plagued by Receivers dropping his passes though which have affected the numbers and he will also have to be aware of the pass rush Green Bay have generated. Suffice to say Newton's ability on the ground means he can get away from the pressure and even run the ball himself, and that is something Green Bay have to be wary of with their issues to stop the run of late.
The Packers were crushed here by the Panthers two years ago, but I do like the visitors with the points this week. The Panthers have not been as strong as a favourite against the spread as they have been when given points this season and the underdog is 6-2 against the spread in the last eight in this series.
Even though Rodgers is coming back from an injury, getting the points with this star Quarter Back is tough to ignore and I think Green Bay could pick up their play in all three phases of the game with the boost in confidence received. It won't be easy against this Carolina team who look capable of making the Play Offs themselves, but I will take the Field Goal start for the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers here.
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints Pick: There won't be any panic from the New Orleans Saints having dropped two of their last three games, especially with their destiny still in their own hands. The fact they played on Thursday Night Football in Week 14 means they have also had a little more time to get ready for this game against the New York Jets who have been eliminated from the Play Off picture despite overachieving this season.
The extra days off have been very good news for Alvin Kamara who is set to return having been knocked out of the game against the Falcons and put into the concussion protocol. All signs are pointing to Kamara being back and it was seen how important the Running Back is to what the New Orleans Saints have been doing Offensively this season.
Kamara provides a one-two punch with Mark Ingram at Running Back, while he is also someone that is a huge factor in the passing game and the absence really highlighted that in Week 14.
New Orleans have found a really strong balance on the Offensive side of the ball this season and I do think this is a team that could be very dangerous in the open looking NFC Play Offs that are coming up. The Saints will certainly use all of that balance to keep the Jets guessing as to what is coming and I think the Saints will be able to move the chains and score a fair few points in this one.
There have been signs of wear and tear on the Jets Defensive Line and it would be a surprise if New Orleans are not picking up some big gains on the ground. That only opens the door for Drew Brees to continue making his own big plays from the Quarter Back position and the Jets Secondary is not as strong as it once was.
Brees should be able to see a few short passes to the likes of Kamara go some distance and the Saints are more than capable of putting up a big number against the Jets here.
It's made all the tougher for the Jets when seeing Josh McCown go down with an injury last week which has ended his season. The veteran Quarter Back has played well for New York and now the keys are turned over to Bryce Petty against a New Orleans Defensive unit which have been one of the surprises of the season.
Petty has experience at Quarter Back, but the problems will begin with the Jets unlikely to be able to run the ball with any consistency and that means Petty being left in obvious passing situations. Against this improved Secondary it looks difficult for Petty to have a really strong outing, while he will also have to be aware of the pass rush that New Orleans can generate led by Cameron Jordan.
It looks a tough day for Petty who has to avoid the Interceptions which could see this game really get away from the Jets and I am struggling to see anything other than a big New Orleans win. The spread is a huge one for the Saints to cover, but I think the Jets may have lost some motivation in the blow out defeat at the Denver Broncos last week and that may carry over in a non-Conference game.
The worry for this spread is clearly that it only takes a couple of mistakes for a team to fail to cover, but I like the Saints in the spot. They will be looking to recover from a loss in Week 14 and I think they are well placed to win this one by a wide, wide margin.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Pick: The injury to Carson Wentz in Week 14 was not only a blow for the Philadelphia Eagles fans, but also for all NFL fans with the Play Offs just a few weeks away. Before the injury Philadelphia looked like one of the best teams in the NFL, but losing Wentz means they have taken a significant step backwards even if Nick Foles has played his best professional Football during his time with the Eagles.
Foles can step into a familiar situation and there is plenty of talent on the Eagles roster which can help the Quarter Back keep the train on the tracks. A tough road Divisional game will help us see where Foles and the Eagles stand, but at least the Quarter Back doesn't have to put all the pressure on his own shoulders.
The expectation is that Foles is going to lean heavily on the Philadelphia running game which has been effective and that will then mean the Quarter Back is able to come through with some play-action passes. Being in third and manageable spots also helps Foles who should be able to make enough plays from that position.
Running the ball should slow down the New York pass rush, although Foles has to be aware of where the pressure is coming from. He will have to scramble away from that before firing downfield and I think that is going to be the biggest problem for Foles as he works that into real game time.
Avoiding mistakes is probably the key for Foles as he can lean on the running game and also an under-rated Defensive unit. The New York Giants have struggled Offensively all season with the injuries they have faced and I think the Eagles are going to have a significant edge on that side of the ball which can help them finish with another victory on the board.
Eli Manning may be back behind Center, but the Giants Offensive Line has struggled both in pass protection and running the ball and that is not good news against this Philadelphia Eagles team. The Eagles Defensive Line has really been a huge part of how well they have played this season and they should be able to control the Giants on the ground and leave Manning in third and long situations.
At that point Manning is going to have find a way to avoid the pressure the Eagles can get up front while also being careful in throwing the ball against a Secondary who have been playing at a very high level. The whole day looks like being a tough one for the Giants who don't look to match up well with Philadelphia and they are going to need Foles to have a bad day in the office to really keep this one close.
It isn't easy for the Eagles to play a third consecutive road game, especially as the last two were on the West Coast and now they are back on the East coast. However I think the Eagles players will want to show they can still win even though they have lost a key part of their team in Carson Wentz and that motivation can see the rest of the team step up.
The Giants are also playing out the season and players have to be wondering what the future holds for them with the changes being made throughout the franchise. That may have been part of the reason they imploded in a home loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 14 and I think that game would have been more important than this one against the Eagles so I don't anticipate motivation to be much higher.
Philadelphia are 8-2 against the spread in their last ten games at the Giants. I think they come out with something to prove on Sunday and they can cover a big number on the road with a couple of key turnovers helping them pull away from the Giants in the second half.
I've added a couple of late plays from the Sunday games to the 'MY PICKS' section below.
MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns + 7 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams + 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Week 15 means there is little room for error for teams and this is also the time when you can start looking around to teams who have gotten hot and potentially have a run to the Super Bowl within them.
Unfortunately 2017 is likely to be remembered as one where injuries and suspensions hurt some of the top names in the NFL. The latest to go down is Carson Wentz who had led the Philadelphia Eagles to the best record in the NFC before suffering an ACL injury which is likely going to keep him out until deep into the pre-season in 2018.
It was also a bitter blow for the Eagles who likely have seen their Super Bowl hopes end barring Nick Foles playing the best Football of his career. That has also blown open the NFC and it could all be working out for one team.
The Green Bay Packers.
Aaron Rodgers is back this week after two critical Overtime wins for the Packers, although they have three tough games to win to have any chance to make the Play Offs. If the Packers can do that, I honestly think they could have the momentum to go all the way to the Super Bowl, although there is plenty of football to be played before everything is separated and the two Super Bowl contenders are set.
Like every week, the results can quickly change the way the Play Off picture looks. This week the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers may well decide which of those teams wins the AFC West, while the Los Angeles Rams go to the Seattle Seahawks with the potentially decisive game in the NFC West on the line.
Add in the New England Patriots trip to the Pittsburgh Steelers which could determine the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and Week 15 looks another fantastic week to enjoy.
My current Play Off twelve looks like this:
AFC- Pittsburgh, New England, Jacksonville, Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee and Baltimore.
NFC- Philadelphia, Minnesota, New Orleans, Seattle, Atlanta and Green Bay.
Last week was a disappointing one for the NFL Picks after the last two picks went down, but hopefully this will be a better week all around. Onto the Week 15 Picks.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns Pick: There was some real disappointment in the Baltimore Ravens locker room last week after blowing a big Fourth Quarter lead in the topsy turvy game at the Pittsburgh Steelers. The loss has put them in a difficult position, but the AFC is not a loaded Conference when it comes to the Wild Card places and the Ravens will feel they still have enough to make sure they finish in those spots.
They are a big favourite to bounce back and beat Divisional rivals the Cleveland Browns who look set to be the second team to finish with a 0-16 record alongside the Detroit Lions. The Browns are also trying to recover from what has to be a crushing defeat when they blew a 14 point lead in the Fourth Quarter against the Green Bay Packers in a game they should have snapped their poor losing run.
That loss looks like one that will have confirmed the end of the Hue Jackson era as the Head Coach in Cleveland and there are already some big changes being made by the franchise. While the Browns do have some good pieces to build upon, in today's NFL there is only so far you can go without having full faith in the Quarter Back you trot out onto the field.
DeShone Kizer has shown some promise since his big time Receiving weapons have returned to the starting line up, but some of the mistakes are really hard to ignore. It is hard to see Kizer returning as the starter for too much longer in 2018 with the Browns likely to pick a new Quarter Back, but the last three games gives him a chance to show he should be given a chance to compete for the starting job.
It will be very much on Kizer's shoulders on Sunday as the Cleveland Browns can't really rely on a consistent running game despite how well they have been playing of late. This time they are taking on a Baltimore Defensive Line which knows it is the strength for the Ravens and they have been incredibly strong up front which should limit what Isaiah Crowell is able to do on the ground.
The pass rush is going to be another issue for Kizer to deal with, but the Quarter Back is one that can get out of the pocket and try and make some plays with his legs. That could at least buy a little more time and Kizer is going to be throwing into a banged up Secondary where his big Receivers should be able win their battles and at least give Cleveland the chance to move the ball.
Cleveland will need to do that because the Baltimore Offense looks to be showing a bit more life in recent games compared with the rest of the season. Joe Flacco is beginning to hook up with the long pass, while the Offensive Line have enjoyed opening holes for Alex Collins who has been running very effectively.
It has to be said the Browns Defensive unit has played well enough to give their team a chance to win though and they have a Defensive Line which can be tough to run the ball against. There are playmakers up front who will want to get to Flacco and prevent him having the time to make the big throws as well as disrupting the quick throws which have been a part of the Ravens Offense.
Ultimately I do think Baltimore will have success Offensively to make sure they avoid the upset loss. However it may be a tougher day in the office than the layers think and the Browns in receipt of a Touchdown worth of points has to be considered after seeing how disappointed the Ravens will have been in losing to the Steelers in Week 14.
Games in Cleveland tend to be a little closer with the Browns fanbase always ready for the hated Ravens and the number of points at least protects against another late collapse from the Browns. The Ravens may be 7-1-1 against the spread in their last nine games in Cleveland, but the last three wins have come by 5, 6 and 2 point margins.
You can't ignore how bad Cleveland have been even against the spread, but I think they can play this one closer against a Baltimore team who are off that emotional loss to the Steelers. The Ravens just want to win by any means necessary and I think that could mean a close game and I will take the points here.
Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The Green Bay Packers have got their Christmas wish.
Aaron Rodgers is back to Quarter Back the team the rest of the season.
However it will still need something of a Christmas miracle for the Green Bay Packers to make the Play Offs who have to beat the Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions in consecutive weeks. All of those teams have winning records, but the return of Rodgers certainly feels like the lift that the Packers have wanted.
Rodgers himself has been speaking about 'lifting' his team mates rather than saving the Green Bay season and I think there will be a little better effort from all of the players with their star player back. To be fair to Green Bay, they have come up big in back to back Overtime wins which has kept the Play Off hopes alive although this is a big game for Rodgers to make his return.
Earlier in the season it may have looked a really difficult game for the Green Bay Packers when the Carolina Panthers were playing some stifling Defense. That has not been the case in more recent games and so Green Bay will feel Rodgers is able to spark something significant for them in this one.
The Packers have been able to run the ball effectively in recent games and I expect they will look to keep things going on the ground with the space that is likely to exist now teams can't focus on stopping the run. With some struggles up front that Carolina are dealing with, Green Bay should be able to find some significant yards on the ground and that should at least make things a little more comfortable for Rodgers.
It will be interesting to see how Rodgers takes the first big hit, which will surely come from this tough Panthers team, but I do think he can come in with some confidence. Rodgers has apparently been lights out in practice for two weeks already and the Packers running the ball effectively means the pass rush is just slowed a little.
Some holes have just begun to show in the Carolina Secondary with the issues stopping the run and I expect the Green Bay Packers will be able to move the chains through the air. This all means there is some pressure on the Panthers to respond Offensively as they look to keep their own Play Off hopes going.
The battle at the line of scrimmage is going to be key when Cam Newton has the ball as the Panthers have been able to establish the run very effectively. They should be able to rip off big gains against the Green Bay Packers too who have begun to have a few injuries wear them down up front, although perhaps the Offensive boost can see the Defensive Line go back to the level they have performed at for much of the season.
It is hard to think Carolina are not able to run the ball though and it will be a key to keeping Rodgers and the powerful Packers Offense on the sidelines. Staying in front of the downs and distances is important for the Panthers who have lost some big Receivers even if Newton is capable of having a big game against a banged up Secondary.
Newton has been plagued by Receivers dropping his passes though which have affected the numbers and he will also have to be aware of the pass rush Green Bay have generated. Suffice to say Newton's ability on the ground means he can get away from the pressure and even run the ball himself, and that is something Green Bay have to be wary of with their issues to stop the run of late.
The Packers were crushed here by the Panthers two years ago, but I do like the visitors with the points this week. The Panthers have not been as strong as a favourite against the spread as they have been when given points this season and the underdog is 6-2 against the spread in the last eight in this series.
Even though Rodgers is coming back from an injury, getting the points with this star Quarter Back is tough to ignore and I think Green Bay could pick up their play in all three phases of the game with the boost in confidence received. It won't be easy against this Carolina team who look capable of making the Play Offs themselves, but I will take the Field Goal start for the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers here.
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints Pick: There won't be any panic from the New Orleans Saints having dropped two of their last three games, especially with their destiny still in their own hands. The fact they played on Thursday Night Football in Week 14 means they have also had a little more time to get ready for this game against the New York Jets who have been eliminated from the Play Off picture despite overachieving this season.
The extra days off have been very good news for Alvin Kamara who is set to return having been knocked out of the game against the Falcons and put into the concussion protocol. All signs are pointing to Kamara being back and it was seen how important the Running Back is to what the New Orleans Saints have been doing Offensively this season.
Kamara provides a one-two punch with Mark Ingram at Running Back, while he is also someone that is a huge factor in the passing game and the absence really highlighted that in Week 14.
New Orleans have found a really strong balance on the Offensive side of the ball this season and I do think this is a team that could be very dangerous in the open looking NFC Play Offs that are coming up. The Saints will certainly use all of that balance to keep the Jets guessing as to what is coming and I think the Saints will be able to move the chains and score a fair few points in this one.
There have been signs of wear and tear on the Jets Defensive Line and it would be a surprise if New Orleans are not picking up some big gains on the ground. That only opens the door for Drew Brees to continue making his own big plays from the Quarter Back position and the Jets Secondary is not as strong as it once was.
Brees should be able to see a few short passes to the likes of Kamara go some distance and the Saints are more than capable of putting up a big number against the Jets here.
It's made all the tougher for the Jets when seeing Josh McCown go down with an injury last week which has ended his season. The veteran Quarter Back has played well for New York and now the keys are turned over to Bryce Petty against a New Orleans Defensive unit which have been one of the surprises of the season.
Petty has experience at Quarter Back, but the problems will begin with the Jets unlikely to be able to run the ball with any consistency and that means Petty being left in obvious passing situations. Against this improved Secondary it looks difficult for Petty to have a really strong outing, while he will also have to be aware of the pass rush that New Orleans can generate led by Cameron Jordan.
It looks a tough day for Petty who has to avoid the Interceptions which could see this game really get away from the Jets and I am struggling to see anything other than a big New Orleans win. The spread is a huge one for the Saints to cover, but I think the Jets may have lost some motivation in the blow out defeat at the Denver Broncos last week and that may carry over in a non-Conference game.
The worry for this spread is clearly that it only takes a couple of mistakes for a team to fail to cover, but I like the Saints in the spot. They will be looking to recover from a loss in Week 14 and I think they are well placed to win this one by a wide, wide margin.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Pick: The injury to Carson Wentz in Week 14 was not only a blow for the Philadelphia Eagles fans, but also for all NFL fans with the Play Offs just a few weeks away. Before the injury Philadelphia looked like one of the best teams in the NFL, but losing Wentz means they have taken a significant step backwards even if Nick Foles has played his best professional Football during his time with the Eagles.
Foles can step into a familiar situation and there is plenty of talent on the Eagles roster which can help the Quarter Back keep the train on the tracks. A tough road Divisional game will help us see where Foles and the Eagles stand, but at least the Quarter Back doesn't have to put all the pressure on his own shoulders.
The expectation is that Foles is going to lean heavily on the Philadelphia running game which has been effective and that will then mean the Quarter Back is able to come through with some play-action passes. Being in third and manageable spots also helps Foles who should be able to make enough plays from that position.
Running the ball should slow down the New York pass rush, although Foles has to be aware of where the pressure is coming from. He will have to scramble away from that before firing downfield and I think that is going to be the biggest problem for Foles as he works that into real game time.
Avoiding mistakes is probably the key for Foles as he can lean on the running game and also an under-rated Defensive unit. The New York Giants have struggled Offensively all season with the injuries they have faced and I think the Eagles are going to have a significant edge on that side of the ball which can help them finish with another victory on the board.
Eli Manning may be back behind Center, but the Giants Offensive Line has struggled both in pass protection and running the ball and that is not good news against this Philadelphia Eagles team. The Eagles Defensive Line has really been a huge part of how well they have played this season and they should be able to control the Giants on the ground and leave Manning in third and long situations.
At that point Manning is going to have find a way to avoid the pressure the Eagles can get up front while also being careful in throwing the ball against a Secondary who have been playing at a very high level. The whole day looks like being a tough one for the Giants who don't look to match up well with Philadelphia and they are going to need Foles to have a bad day in the office to really keep this one close.
It isn't easy for the Eagles to play a third consecutive road game, especially as the last two were on the West Coast and now they are back on the East coast. However I think the Eagles players will want to show they can still win even though they have lost a key part of their team in Carson Wentz and that motivation can see the rest of the team step up.
The Giants are also playing out the season and players have to be wondering what the future holds for them with the changes being made throughout the franchise. That may have been part of the reason they imploded in a home loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 14 and I think that game would have been more important than this one against the Eagles so I don't anticipate motivation to be much higher.
Philadelphia are 8-2 against the spread in their last ten games at the Giants. I think they come out with something to prove on Sunday and they can cover a big number on the road with a couple of key turnovers helping them pull away from the Giants in the second half.
I've added a couple of late plays from the Sunday games to the 'MY PICKS' section below.
MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns + 7 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams + 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Saturday, 16 December 2017
College Football Bowl Games Picks 2017 (December 16-27)
The Bowl Games are played over a few weeks in December through to the first few days of January, but I am planning to split them in half and put the Picks in two separate threads.
One I think that makes for much easier reading than producing 41 Bowl Picks in one thread and two it is just easier to manage for myself.
The split might not be in terms of dates, but it is in terms of number of games to be played in the two periods I have selected which are December 16-27 for the first thread and December 28-January 9 which culminates in the National Championship Game.
There are going to be a lot of games in the weeks ahead, but you have to try and factor in as much about motivation of teams as possible. That isn't always easy, but hopefully Bowl season won't just be fun for the fans with plenty of decent looking games to come, but it will also be a good time for the College Football Picks which have some momentum after the performance in the Championship Games.
Saturday 16th December
North Texas Mean Green vs Troy Trojans Pick: This has been a strong season for both the Troy Trojans and the North Texas Mean Green and they have been rewarded with a place in the New Orleans Bowl. The Trojans have matched the 10 wins they had in 2016 and have a chance to win another Bowl Game which will see them surpass that number, while the Mean Green are back in a Bowl for a second season in a row themselves.
They were beaten last season by the Army Black Knights, but this has been a year of improvement for North Texas who got into a Bowl Game last season despite winning less than 6 games. 2017 is the first winning season since 2013 for the Mean Green and I am anticipating there is plenty of motivation for both squads to end 2017 in the correct manner.
It hasn't been that long since both Troy and North Texas were playing in the Sun Belt Conference against one another which may mean a little more on the line. Players from 2012 may not be here any more, but you can imagine there has been some encouragement offered by meeting a team the other would have played on a regular basis up until the 2012 season.
The game is being played a little closer to the Trojans home so I expect they may have the edge in the stands, while I also think Troy are the better team on the field too.
There is work for Troy to do if they are going to secure the win, but momentum is behind them having won a share of the Sun Belt Conference Championship while North Texas were losing in the Conference-USA Conference Championship Game. That momentum can be key for a team who I feel are going to be superior at the line of scrimmage and I expect that is going to be a big reason as to why they are able to win this game.
In recent weeks Troy have not run the ball as well as they have for much of the season, but I expect they can get that turned around against the Mean Green Defensive Line which has given up some huge plays on the ground. Troy definitely will at least attempt to keep running the ball to open things up for Brandon Silvers who is playing against a Secondary that hasn't been tested because of the problems North Texas have had up front.
That has been the case in recent weeks with teams being able to not only establish the run, but rip off big gains against the Mean Green. Silvers should be good enough to have some big moments in this one too and I do think Troy can move the chains and score their points in this one.
Mason Fine will be looking to match Silvers at Quarter Back for North Texas after what has been a special season for him. However the problem for Fine is that Troy's Defensive Line have been stout up front and the Mean Green have not been able to establish the run with any consistency which is going to mean there is a lot of pressure on Fine to make the plays himself.
I do think Fine can have some success, but he will be faced with plenty of pressure up front from the Trojans and Interceptions could be an issue for him. While making some big time throws for the Mean Green, I think Fine will ultimately be forced into a mistake or two which can swing this game in favour of Troy.
One other issue for North Texas could be that Jalen Guyton could be forced to miss out and he has been a huge weapon for Fine in the passing game. It will make Troy's job a little easier if they are not being forced to look at a couple of big weapons in the passing game and I think that will help in trying to anticipate where Fine is going to be throwing the ball in big moments.
The Trojans have not been the best favourite to back this season, but they look to be in the better shape all around going into this one. Winning back to back Bowl Games in consecutive years would be a huge achievement for Troy who are going for a third straight Bowl win overall and I can see them creating a couple of turnovers to help them cover in this one.
This time of the year can be a little busier in the run up to Christmas so the remaining Saturday Bowl Game Picks are below in the 'My Picks' section.
I will have my breakdowns for the other Bowl Games in the days ahead.
Tuesday 19th December
Akron Zips @ Florida Atlantic Owls Pick: Home field advantage goes to the Florida Atlantic Owls for this Bowl Game and the news that Lane Kiffin has signed a new contract with the school has to have given the players a real boost.
This has been a strong season for the Owls and I think they can wrap it up with a big win over the Akron Zips.
Much of my belief comes down to the fact that Florida Atlantic are stronger at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball compared with the Zips. That should mean the Owls are able to run the ball effectively and also stop the run which in turns put a lot of pressure on Akron to get their throws right.
That won't be easy when you think of the pressure the Owls have gotten up front and I think they are going to be the team making all of the big plays in this one. With the home field advantage, I do like Florida Atlantic to win this game and cover a big number.
MY PICKS: Troy Trojans - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Georgia State Panthers + 7 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Arkansas State Red Wolves - 3 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Florida Atlantic Owls - 22 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Bowl Games Update: 2-1, + 0.72 Units (3 Units Staked, + 24% Yield)
One I think that makes for much easier reading than producing 41 Bowl Picks in one thread and two it is just easier to manage for myself.
The split might not be in terms of dates, but it is in terms of number of games to be played in the two periods I have selected which are December 16-27 for the first thread and December 28-January 9 which culminates in the National Championship Game.
There are going to be a lot of games in the weeks ahead, but you have to try and factor in as much about motivation of teams as possible. That isn't always easy, but hopefully Bowl season won't just be fun for the fans with plenty of decent looking games to come, but it will also be a good time for the College Football Picks which have some momentum after the performance in the Championship Games.
Saturday 16th December
North Texas Mean Green vs Troy Trojans Pick: This has been a strong season for both the Troy Trojans and the North Texas Mean Green and they have been rewarded with a place in the New Orleans Bowl. The Trojans have matched the 10 wins they had in 2016 and have a chance to win another Bowl Game which will see them surpass that number, while the Mean Green are back in a Bowl for a second season in a row themselves.
They were beaten last season by the Army Black Knights, but this has been a year of improvement for North Texas who got into a Bowl Game last season despite winning less than 6 games. 2017 is the first winning season since 2013 for the Mean Green and I am anticipating there is plenty of motivation for both squads to end 2017 in the correct manner.
It hasn't been that long since both Troy and North Texas were playing in the Sun Belt Conference against one another which may mean a little more on the line. Players from 2012 may not be here any more, but you can imagine there has been some encouragement offered by meeting a team the other would have played on a regular basis up until the 2012 season.
The game is being played a little closer to the Trojans home so I expect they may have the edge in the stands, while I also think Troy are the better team on the field too.
There is work for Troy to do if they are going to secure the win, but momentum is behind them having won a share of the Sun Belt Conference Championship while North Texas were losing in the Conference-USA Conference Championship Game. That momentum can be key for a team who I feel are going to be superior at the line of scrimmage and I expect that is going to be a big reason as to why they are able to win this game.
In recent weeks Troy have not run the ball as well as they have for much of the season, but I expect they can get that turned around against the Mean Green Defensive Line which has given up some huge plays on the ground. Troy definitely will at least attempt to keep running the ball to open things up for Brandon Silvers who is playing against a Secondary that hasn't been tested because of the problems North Texas have had up front.
That has been the case in recent weeks with teams being able to not only establish the run, but rip off big gains against the Mean Green. Silvers should be good enough to have some big moments in this one too and I do think Troy can move the chains and score their points in this one.
Mason Fine will be looking to match Silvers at Quarter Back for North Texas after what has been a special season for him. However the problem for Fine is that Troy's Defensive Line have been stout up front and the Mean Green have not been able to establish the run with any consistency which is going to mean there is a lot of pressure on Fine to make the plays himself.
I do think Fine can have some success, but he will be faced with plenty of pressure up front from the Trojans and Interceptions could be an issue for him. While making some big time throws for the Mean Green, I think Fine will ultimately be forced into a mistake or two which can swing this game in favour of Troy.
One other issue for North Texas could be that Jalen Guyton could be forced to miss out and he has been a huge weapon for Fine in the passing game. It will make Troy's job a little easier if they are not being forced to look at a couple of big weapons in the passing game and I think that will help in trying to anticipate where Fine is going to be throwing the ball in big moments.
The Trojans have not been the best favourite to back this season, but they look to be in the better shape all around going into this one. Winning back to back Bowl Games in consecutive years would be a huge achievement for Troy who are going for a third straight Bowl win overall and I can see them creating a couple of turnovers to help them cover in this one.
This time of the year can be a little busier in the run up to Christmas so the remaining Saturday Bowl Game Picks are below in the 'My Picks' section.
I will have my breakdowns for the other Bowl Games in the days ahead.
Tuesday 19th December
Akron Zips @ Florida Atlantic Owls Pick: Home field advantage goes to the Florida Atlantic Owls for this Bowl Game and the news that Lane Kiffin has signed a new contract with the school has to have given the players a real boost.
This has been a strong season for the Owls and I think they can wrap it up with a big win over the Akron Zips.
Much of my belief comes down to the fact that Florida Atlantic are stronger at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball compared with the Zips. That should mean the Owls are able to run the ball effectively and also stop the run which in turns put a lot of pressure on Akron to get their throws right.
That won't be easy when you think of the pressure the Owls have gotten up front and I think they are going to be the team making all of the big plays in this one. With the home field advantage, I do like Florida Atlantic to win this game and cover a big number.
MY PICKS: Troy Trojans - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Georgia State Panthers + 7 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Arkansas State Red Wolves - 3 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Florida Atlantic Owls - 22 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Bowl Games Update: 2-1, + 0.72 Units (3 Units Staked, + 24% Yield)
Friday, 15 December 2017
Weekend Football Picks 2017 (December 16-18)
You do begin to understand how much football is being played by the top Premier League players at this time of the year when noting another round of fixtures are ready to be played so soon.
It is a big time for rotation and trying to get the best out of the players as teams look for vital points at the top and bottom of the Premier League table.
Before the Bournemouth game on Wednesday, I had written a short piece about Manchester United which can be read here.
Now onto another round of picks before we can all have a little break between this weekend and next Friday when it all goes again. The League Cup Quarter Finals are played on Tuesday and Wednesday, but for the majority of the big names this will be a week of rest before a run of four more games in the space of ten days to conclude the festive period.
Leicester City v Crystal Palace Pick: With the fixtures coming as quickly as they are at the moment, it can be difficult to know how much rotation Claude Puel and Roy Hodgson want to put into their starting elevens. Both will be looking at this as a very winnable fixture for Leicester City and Crystal Palace respectively, and the early Saturday kick off should be one in which both teams push for the win.
It is a big week coming up for Leicester City who play three home games against Palace, Manchester City and Manchester United. The middle game comes in the League Cup and Puel will take that seriously having guided Southampton to the Final last season, and I think the Leicester City players can come in with plenty of confidence to an important week for them.
Having 4 straight wins behind them helps and Leicester City have been playing very well at home. They have won 4 of their last 5 games at the King Power Stadium and so this is a team who will believe they have the ability to put another three points on the board and get a little closer to the top four.
They will have to work hard to break down a Crystal Palace team who are unbeaten in 6 games in the Premier League. However this is a team who have struggled for goals away from home and I think that could be a problem for Crystal Palace here at a ground where they have lost on their last couple of visits.
The lack of goals is something Hodgson is working on and even though they have earned back to back clean sheets at West Brom and Brighton, I do think Leicester City have more firepower which can be difficult to contain. It may be that Crystal Palace try and soak up the pressure and use Wilfried Zaha and Andros Townsend on the counter attack, but defensive injuries won't help the visitors here.
I imagine it will be a competitive game with little between them, but Leicester City have the confidence of plenty of wins in recent weeks and I think that helps them find a winner in this fixture.
Arsenal v Newcastle United Pick: There have been a couple of excuses offered up by Arsene Wenger as to why his Arsenal side have underperformed in the draws at Southampton and West Ham United over the last eight days, but privately the Frenchman cannot be happy. While it can be difficult to keep fatigue out of the bodies of the players, Wenger and the Arsenal fans would have expected so much more.
Slipping down to 7th in the Premier League table is not a concern for now considering Arsenal are a point behind 4th placed Tottenham Hotspur, but The Gunners cannot afford to drop more points this weekend. They will feel they have to take advantage of the fact that Tottenham Hotspur travel to Manchester City and both Manchester United and Liverpool play away from home on Sunday, and Arsenal will at least feel better in familiar surroundings.
Arsenal were beaten 1-3 by Manchester United last time out at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League, but they have been very strong here going back a few months. Goals have been an issue on their travels, but that has not been the case at home and I really do feel like Newcastle United could be on the end of another tough day in the office.
If Arsenal fans feel their team is out of form, they will have to spare a thought for Newcastle United fans who have seen their team lose 7 of their last 8 League games to land just outside the relegation zone. The new ownership cannot take over quick enough and it has been a huge task for Rafa Benitez to get a tune out of a squad that currently does not look good enough at this level.
Newcastle United have recently taken the lead at both Manchester United and Chelsea, but on both occasions they were well beaten in a 4-1 and 3-1 loss respectively. I think they will find it tough to contain Arsenal too despite the tactical advice Benitez will give and Arsenal definitely play better at the Emirates Stadium than they do on their travels in the League.
Goals have not been a problem at home and Arsenal can extend their run to 6 straight wins over Newcastle United at the Emirates Stadium. I expect The Gunners can match both Manchester United and Chelsea in winning this fixture by at least a couple of goals on the day and I will look for the home team to cover the Asian Handicap here.
5 of the 7 Arsenal home wins in the League have come by at least a two goal margin and 3 of their last 4 home wins over Newcastle United have done the same. I will look for that to occur here too.
Brighton v Burnley Pick: This is one of those games where you can't get your head around which team is favoured and that has made the 'underdog' an appealing team to back on the Asian Handicap.
Before I saw the price for this match, I actually thought Brighton would be around 2.88, the draw around 3.30 and the Burnley win to be around 2.50 considering how well the latter have been playing. Add in a poor run for Brighton and I really couldn't see anything other than Burnley being favoured to win here and at those prices it would have been a watching brief as far as I am concerned.
Instead Brighton are favoured and you can get a decent price on Burnley with a start on the Asian Handicap which seems ridiculous. Yes Burnley lost at Leicester City recently, but they have won matches at Everton, Southampton and Bournemouth over the last couple of months and no one will be able to tell me that Brighton are superior to those teams.
In fact Brighton were perhaps a little fortunate to draw with Stoke City at home recently and the 2-0 loss at Huddersfield Town last weekend says a lot about the confidence.
Burnley don't score a lot of goals which can make it difficult to trust them, but it is hard to see them losing at the Amex Stadium. That makes the start appealing enough which will return a winner in the case of the draw and Burnley are the more likely winners overall in my opinion and so look the right team to back.
I can imagine Burnley are tipped up quite a lot and we know that can burn everybody at the same time, but they look the right side for me.
Chelsea v Southampton Pick: There were a couple of angles I considered for this fixture and both involved seeing a few goals on Saturday afternoon. I considered backing at least three goals to be scored and also considered both teams to score, but ultimately I have settled on backing Chelsea to keep their strong run at home going.
The Blues may have drawn with Atletico Madrid last time out at Stamford Bridge, but they had won 5 straight here in all competitions prior to that. There has been an improvement in recent performances from Chelsea barring the 1-0 loss at West Ham United and I also think having an extra day to recover for this fixture will work to the hosts favour.
Alvaro Morata should be back to lead the line for Chelsea having been rested during the win at Huddersfield Town, while Antonio Conte has the likes of Eden Hazard and Willian showing positive form. That should mean Chelsea are able to dominate the play against a Southampton team who can be well organised, but who have to pick themselves up from a heavy 1-4 home defeat to Leicester City.
I do think Southampton can cause some problems on the counter attack with the pace they have, but they had some key players last the full ninety minutes on Wednesday. Chelsea had the chance to give Hazard and Morata a rest and I think that can make a difference here.
You have to respect Southampton for the way they have played in narrow losses to Manchester United and Manchester City, while they also earned a home draw with Arsenal last weekend. However they were crushed at Liverpool recently and I think Chelsea will be able to take advantage of any tiredness that may exist in the Southampton squad.
Both games last season were won by a couple of goals by Chelsea and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.
Stoke City v West Ham United Pick: Games in December aren't going to be considered 'deciders' but this one has all the makings of a relegation six pointer for both Stoke City and West Ham United. It is of particular importance to Mark Hughes who is beginning to feel the pressure as manager of Stoke City and this is sure to be a big game on Saturday afternoon.
It is going to be interesting to see what kind of reaction the Stoke City players get having been confronted by some of the fans after the 5-1 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley Stadium. They were much better in the 1-0 loss at Burnley during the week and Hughes has to see if he can extract a similar level of performances from his players.
They can't afford to go behind though as the fans may make this a toxic atmosphere for the home team in that situation. However this looks to be a good spot for Stoke City who played on Tuesday while West Ham United produced another huge effort in their goalless draw with Arsenal on Wednesday.
That extra day of recovery from a game in which Stoke City were arguably considered the better side at Turf Moor can be huge compared with West Ham United who were putting plenty of effort in their games against Chelsea and Arsenal.
It will be interesting to see how West Ham United can freshen things up in time for this one, but I also think The Hammers can have more consistent success going forward. This time they are facing a Stoke City team who have conceded plenty of goals both at home and away and West Ham United can at least cause problems early in the fixture while the energy remains high.
There has been an improvement from West Ham United defensively in their last few games, but this is a team who have struggled away from home. West Ham United have conceded at least twice in their last 5 away games in all competitions and I can see both teams having their moments in this one.
It does feel the layers are underestimating the chance to see at least three goals shared out. The last 8 in all competitions at the Bet365 Stadium have seen at least that number of goals returned, while 4 of the last 5 West Ham United away games have done the same.
Before last season there had been 3 games in a row at Stoke City between these clubs which had featured at least three goals and I will back the odds against quotes for that to happen here.
Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The big game in the Premier League this weekend comes from the Etihad Stadium and neutrals all around England will be hoping Tottenham Hotspur can stop the steamroller of Manchester City from continuing what looks like an easy march towards the Premier League title.
The recent form of Tottenham Hotspur will offer some encouragement, but Manchester City are playing at an extremely high level and they have already proven their worth with wins at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford this season. They have also recorded big wins over Liverpool and Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium and it is tough to see how Tottenham Hotspur can slow them down.
As well as Tottenham Hotspur have done under Mauricio Pochettino's guidance as manager, this is a team who have struggled to match the top teams in England when having to travel to those grounds. This season Tottenham Hotspur have not played well in defeats at Manchester United and Arsenal, while Chelsea have also beaten them at Wembley Stadium.
The away record is the focus though and Tottenham Hotspur have lost 5 of their last 6 away games at the top English clubs (lost twice to Manchester United, lost at Chelsea, lost at Liverpool and Arsenal in that time). The one exception saw Tottenham Hotspur come back from 2-0 down to earn a 2-2 draw at the Etihad Stadium but suffice to say it is a completely different prospect trying to do that against this current Manchester City team.
Recent weeks have seen Manchester City find it a little tougher to win matches, but the confidence from the win at Old Trafford cannot be understated. I also don't think Tottenham Hotspur have been playing at their best defensively with three key pieces missing for them this weekend to add to those problems.
Tottenham Hotspur should be set out to at least challenge Manchester City on the counter attack and there is some pace in the squad that can cause problems for a backline that is not the best. However being that positive is likely going to mean Manchester City also have more spaces to exploit and I think they are going to be a little too good for their visitors on Saturday afternoon.
The defeats Tottenham Hotspur have suffered to the big clubs this season is a concern for them as they now face the one team who have been head and shoulders above all others.
Personally I would love to see Tottenham Hotspur find a way to stop the Manchester City winning run, but unfortunately I think they are not quite playing up to the level that is going to be required. With a poor recent away record in the Premier League, I think Tottenham Hotspur will need to ride their luck to avoid another away loss at a big six Premier League club.
With that in mind, I will back Manchester City to beat a third rival at the Etihad Stadium by at least a couple of goals and I will look for the home team to cover the Asian Handicap even if I would love to be wrong on this occasion.
West Brom v Manchester United Pick: There are a couple of ways you can play this fixture this weekend and I do think the first of the two live Sunday fixtures in the Premier League could be a surprisingly exciting game.
On the face of things it may not seem that way with West Brom likely to set themselves up to be hard to beat, but Alan Pardew has a different mindset to Tony Pulis. While Pulis would be content to frustrate Manchester United, Pardew will want his side to get forward and have a go at their visitors and I do think the additional space provided will work well for Manchester United.
West Brom have yet to score for Alan Pardew, but scoring goals has not been much of a problem for Manchester United of late. They have managed seven goals in away games at Watford and Arsenal, but Manchester United may also offer West Brom some encouragement having kept just a single clean sheet in the last 6 away from home in all competitions.
The chances that Watford and Arsenal created will make West Brom believe they can have success with a bit of positivity, while the home team should be a threat from set pieces. Both Manchester City and Bournemouth caused problems for Manchester United from set pieces so there are signs that West Brom could have success doing that.
I am a little concerned for West Brom considering the amount of energy invested in the goalless draw at Anfield though. While Manchester United also had to work harder than expected, the West Brom effort would have been both mental and physical in a tough environment and that is likely to have sapped some energy and with less options to rotate than Jose Mourinho has at United.
Both Manchester City and Chelsea have played here in the League this season and both managed to score at least three times. With Manchester United showing some real bite in the final third at Watford and Arsenal, they could become the latest to get in front at The Hawthorns and then pick off their hosts who will try and come forward.
That is why both the over 2.5 goals market and Manchester United covering the Asian Handicap appeal here. The tiredness factor could see United pull away in the second half with a couple of quick strikes to finish off their hosts, but I also think West Brom could play a part in this one before tiredness perhaps takes over.
I can see both markets hitting here at odds against.
The more likely feels like Manchester United to cover the Asian Handicap and I will back that to happen in another important win for Jose Mourinho's men ahead of another big week, but I will also look for at least three goals to be scored in this fixture.
Bournemouth v Liverpool Pick: This is an important game for both Bournemouth and Liverpool who have not had the best weeks in terms of results. Both teams will feel they should have had a few more points on the board than they have earned, and now both Bournemouth and Liverpool are looking for vital points at the bottom and top of the Premier League respectively.
Games between Bournemouth and Liverpool have tended to be very good viewing for the neutrals in the last couple of years and this is another that should feature a few goals.
With the way Bournemouth approach things under Eddie Howe, this is a team that will challenge Liverpool and the porous defence which has been very weak when playing away from Anfield. Only three Premier League clubs have conceded more goals than Liverpool away from home to this point, and Bournemouth will feel they can at least create a few chances in a bid for the upset.
On the other hand it will be tough for Bournemouth to contain a Liverpool team who have scored 20 away League goals which is only surpassed by Manchester City who have also played one more away game. The Reds have been rampant in recent away games which makes them very dangerous and an attack that has not been at their best in the last couple of games never feels that far away from getting things turned back around.
Liverpool have scored at least three goals in wins at West Ham United, Stoke City and Brighton in the Premier League, while they were also 0-3 up at half time in Sevilla in the Champions League. That makes me lean towards them opening up against a Bournemouth team that will allow Liverpool to express themselves and I expect the away side to create chances here.
That makes it a fun game and the layers are not offering great prices on at least three goals being shared out. I expect that will happen here, but I also think Liverpool win the game and you can put those markets together for an odds against quote on Sunday.
All 4 Liverpool away Premier League wins has come in high scoring games, and Bournemouth home games against the big six English clubs have tended to produce goals. Recently Chelsea won here 0-1, but over the last three seasons Bournemouth home games against the top six clubs have ended with a 10-4 lean towards three or more goals compared with two and fewer.
I do think Liverpool are a dangerous away side and they can bounce back for a win here on Sunday and I will look for that to happen in a high scoring fixture.
Everton v Swansea City Pick: There has to be some real discussion at the Liberty Stadium as to whether they should be making a change in the manager's office as Paul Clement has struggled to get a consistent run together. Being bottom of the Premier League at Christmas has historically been a tough position to recover from and Swansea City have not shown the kind of form to think they can get out of their current predicament.
Now they have to travel to face an Everton team who have been rejuvenated by Sam Allardyce and have subsequently won 4 of 5 games in all competitions. The wins in the Premier League have come behind some strong defensive efforts and Everton are going for a fourth straight win at Goodison Park in the Premier League.
You have to think they can do that, although the short odds on Everton suggests the layers have completely forgotten about how much this club was suffering before Allardyce arrived.
That makes it hard to back Everton at short odds, especially as Swansea City have been a well organised team away from home. The problem both at home and on their travels has been the lack of goals being scored and that may be the difference here with Wilfried Bony potentially missing too.
Bony has scored the last couple of Swansea City League goals so his absence would be a blow and I do think Everton are the more likely winners.
Instead of taking them at a short price, I will have a small interest on Everton continuing their recent trend of clean sheets in their wins. All 4 wins in the last couple of weeks have come with a clean sheet including at Newcastle United during the week.
Swansea City have only scored 4 away goals in the Premier League and half of those came in a 0-2 win at Crystal Palace. I will thus have a small interest in Everton winning this one with a clean sheet at a nice looking price.
MY PICKS: Leicester City @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stoke City-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
West Brom-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Liverpool to Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Everton Win to Nil @ 2.70 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
It is a big time for rotation and trying to get the best out of the players as teams look for vital points at the top and bottom of the Premier League table.
Before the Bournemouth game on Wednesday, I had written a short piece about Manchester United which can be read here.
Now onto another round of picks before we can all have a little break between this weekend and next Friday when it all goes again. The League Cup Quarter Finals are played on Tuesday and Wednesday, but for the majority of the big names this will be a week of rest before a run of four more games in the space of ten days to conclude the festive period.
Leicester City v Crystal Palace Pick: With the fixtures coming as quickly as they are at the moment, it can be difficult to know how much rotation Claude Puel and Roy Hodgson want to put into their starting elevens. Both will be looking at this as a very winnable fixture for Leicester City and Crystal Palace respectively, and the early Saturday kick off should be one in which both teams push for the win.
It is a big week coming up for Leicester City who play three home games against Palace, Manchester City and Manchester United. The middle game comes in the League Cup and Puel will take that seriously having guided Southampton to the Final last season, and I think the Leicester City players can come in with plenty of confidence to an important week for them.
Having 4 straight wins behind them helps and Leicester City have been playing very well at home. They have won 4 of their last 5 games at the King Power Stadium and so this is a team who will believe they have the ability to put another three points on the board and get a little closer to the top four.
They will have to work hard to break down a Crystal Palace team who are unbeaten in 6 games in the Premier League. However this is a team who have struggled for goals away from home and I think that could be a problem for Crystal Palace here at a ground where they have lost on their last couple of visits.
The lack of goals is something Hodgson is working on and even though they have earned back to back clean sheets at West Brom and Brighton, I do think Leicester City have more firepower which can be difficult to contain. It may be that Crystal Palace try and soak up the pressure and use Wilfried Zaha and Andros Townsend on the counter attack, but defensive injuries won't help the visitors here.
I imagine it will be a competitive game with little between them, but Leicester City have the confidence of plenty of wins in recent weeks and I think that helps them find a winner in this fixture.
Arsenal v Newcastle United Pick: There have been a couple of excuses offered up by Arsene Wenger as to why his Arsenal side have underperformed in the draws at Southampton and West Ham United over the last eight days, but privately the Frenchman cannot be happy. While it can be difficult to keep fatigue out of the bodies of the players, Wenger and the Arsenal fans would have expected so much more.
Slipping down to 7th in the Premier League table is not a concern for now considering Arsenal are a point behind 4th placed Tottenham Hotspur, but The Gunners cannot afford to drop more points this weekend. They will feel they have to take advantage of the fact that Tottenham Hotspur travel to Manchester City and both Manchester United and Liverpool play away from home on Sunday, and Arsenal will at least feel better in familiar surroundings.
Arsenal were beaten 1-3 by Manchester United last time out at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League, but they have been very strong here going back a few months. Goals have been an issue on their travels, but that has not been the case at home and I really do feel like Newcastle United could be on the end of another tough day in the office.
If Arsenal fans feel their team is out of form, they will have to spare a thought for Newcastle United fans who have seen their team lose 7 of their last 8 League games to land just outside the relegation zone. The new ownership cannot take over quick enough and it has been a huge task for Rafa Benitez to get a tune out of a squad that currently does not look good enough at this level.
Newcastle United have recently taken the lead at both Manchester United and Chelsea, but on both occasions they were well beaten in a 4-1 and 3-1 loss respectively. I think they will find it tough to contain Arsenal too despite the tactical advice Benitez will give and Arsenal definitely play better at the Emirates Stadium than they do on their travels in the League.
Goals have not been a problem at home and Arsenal can extend their run to 6 straight wins over Newcastle United at the Emirates Stadium. I expect The Gunners can match both Manchester United and Chelsea in winning this fixture by at least a couple of goals on the day and I will look for the home team to cover the Asian Handicap here.
5 of the 7 Arsenal home wins in the League have come by at least a two goal margin and 3 of their last 4 home wins over Newcastle United have done the same. I will look for that to occur here too.
Brighton v Burnley Pick: This is one of those games where you can't get your head around which team is favoured and that has made the 'underdog' an appealing team to back on the Asian Handicap.
Before I saw the price for this match, I actually thought Brighton would be around 2.88, the draw around 3.30 and the Burnley win to be around 2.50 considering how well the latter have been playing. Add in a poor run for Brighton and I really couldn't see anything other than Burnley being favoured to win here and at those prices it would have been a watching brief as far as I am concerned.
Instead Brighton are favoured and you can get a decent price on Burnley with a start on the Asian Handicap which seems ridiculous. Yes Burnley lost at Leicester City recently, but they have won matches at Everton, Southampton and Bournemouth over the last couple of months and no one will be able to tell me that Brighton are superior to those teams.
In fact Brighton were perhaps a little fortunate to draw with Stoke City at home recently and the 2-0 loss at Huddersfield Town last weekend says a lot about the confidence.
Burnley don't score a lot of goals which can make it difficult to trust them, but it is hard to see them losing at the Amex Stadium. That makes the start appealing enough which will return a winner in the case of the draw and Burnley are the more likely winners overall in my opinion and so look the right team to back.
I can imagine Burnley are tipped up quite a lot and we know that can burn everybody at the same time, but they look the right side for me.
Chelsea v Southampton Pick: There were a couple of angles I considered for this fixture and both involved seeing a few goals on Saturday afternoon. I considered backing at least three goals to be scored and also considered both teams to score, but ultimately I have settled on backing Chelsea to keep their strong run at home going.
The Blues may have drawn with Atletico Madrid last time out at Stamford Bridge, but they had won 5 straight here in all competitions prior to that. There has been an improvement in recent performances from Chelsea barring the 1-0 loss at West Ham United and I also think having an extra day to recover for this fixture will work to the hosts favour.
Alvaro Morata should be back to lead the line for Chelsea having been rested during the win at Huddersfield Town, while Antonio Conte has the likes of Eden Hazard and Willian showing positive form. That should mean Chelsea are able to dominate the play against a Southampton team who can be well organised, but who have to pick themselves up from a heavy 1-4 home defeat to Leicester City.
I do think Southampton can cause some problems on the counter attack with the pace they have, but they had some key players last the full ninety minutes on Wednesday. Chelsea had the chance to give Hazard and Morata a rest and I think that can make a difference here.
You have to respect Southampton for the way they have played in narrow losses to Manchester United and Manchester City, while they also earned a home draw with Arsenal last weekend. However they were crushed at Liverpool recently and I think Chelsea will be able to take advantage of any tiredness that may exist in the Southampton squad.
Both games last season were won by a couple of goals by Chelsea and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.
Stoke City v West Ham United Pick: Games in December aren't going to be considered 'deciders' but this one has all the makings of a relegation six pointer for both Stoke City and West Ham United. It is of particular importance to Mark Hughes who is beginning to feel the pressure as manager of Stoke City and this is sure to be a big game on Saturday afternoon.
It is going to be interesting to see what kind of reaction the Stoke City players get having been confronted by some of the fans after the 5-1 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley Stadium. They were much better in the 1-0 loss at Burnley during the week and Hughes has to see if he can extract a similar level of performances from his players.
They can't afford to go behind though as the fans may make this a toxic atmosphere for the home team in that situation. However this looks to be a good spot for Stoke City who played on Tuesday while West Ham United produced another huge effort in their goalless draw with Arsenal on Wednesday.
That extra day of recovery from a game in which Stoke City were arguably considered the better side at Turf Moor can be huge compared with West Ham United who were putting plenty of effort in their games against Chelsea and Arsenal.
It will be interesting to see how West Ham United can freshen things up in time for this one, but I also think The Hammers can have more consistent success going forward. This time they are facing a Stoke City team who have conceded plenty of goals both at home and away and West Ham United can at least cause problems early in the fixture while the energy remains high.
There has been an improvement from West Ham United defensively in their last few games, but this is a team who have struggled away from home. West Ham United have conceded at least twice in their last 5 away games in all competitions and I can see both teams having their moments in this one.
It does feel the layers are underestimating the chance to see at least three goals shared out. The last 8 in all competitions at the Bet365 Stadium have seen at least that number of goals returned, while 4 of the last 5 West Ham United away games have done the same.
Before last season there had been 3 games in a row at Stoke City between these clubs which had featured at least three goals and I will back the odds against quotes for that to happen here.
Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The big game in the Premier League this weekend comes from the Etihad Stadium and neutrals all around England will be hoping Tottenham Hotspur can stop the steamroller of Manchester City from continuing what looks like an easy march towards the Premier League title.
The recent form of Tottenham Hotspur will offer some encouragement, but Manchester City are playing at an extremely high level and they have already proven their worth with wins at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford this season. They have also recorded big wins over Liverpool and Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium and it is tough to see how Tottenham Hotspur can slow them down.
As well as Tottenham Hotspur have done under Mauricio Pochettino's guidance as manager, this is a team who have struggled to match the top teams in England when having to travel to those grounds. This season Tottenham Hotspur have not played well in defeats at Manchester United and Arsenal, while Chelsea have also beaten them at Wembley Stadium.
The away record is the focus though and Tottenham Hotspur have lost 5 of their last 6 away games at the top English clubs (lost twice to Manchester United, lost at Chelsea, lost at Liverpool and Arsenal in that time). The one exception saw Tottenham Hotspur come back from 2-0 down to earn a 2-2 draw at the Etihad Stadium but suffice to say it is a completely different prospect trying to do that against this current Manchester City team.
Recent weeks have seen Manchester City find it a little tougher to win matches, but the confidence from the win at Old Trafford cannot be understated. I also don't think Tottenham Hotspur have been playing at their best defensively with three key pieces missing for them this weekend to add to those problems.
Tottenham Hotspur should be set out to at least challenge Manchester City on the counter attack and there is some pace in the squad that can cause problems for a backline that is not the best. However being that positive is likely going to mean Manchester City also have more spaces to exploit and I think they are going to be a little too good for their visitors on Saturday afternoon.
The defeats Tottenham Hotspur have suffered to the big clubs this season is a concern for them as they now face the one team who have been head and shoulders above all others.
Personally I would love to see Tottenham Hotspur find a way to stop the Manchester City winning run, but unfortunately I think they are not quite playing up to the level that is going to be required. With a poor recent away record in the Premier League, I think Tottenham Hotspur will need to ride their luck to avoid another away loss at a big six Premier League club.
With that in mind, I will back Manchester City to beat a third rival at the Etihad Stadium by at least a couple of goals and I will look for the home team to cover the Asian Handicap even if I would love to be wrong on this occasion.
West Brom v Manchester United Pick: There are a couple of ways you can play this fixture this weekend and I do think the first of the two live Sunday fixtures in the Premier League could be a surprisingly exciting game.
On the face of things it may not seem that way with West Brom likely to set themselves up to be hard to beat, but Alan Pardew has a different mindset to Tony Pulis. While Pulis would be content to frustrate Manchester United, Pardew will want his side to get forward and have a go at their visitors and I do think the additional space provided will work well for Manchester United.
West Brom have yet to score for Alan Pardew, but scoring goals has not been much of a problem for Manchester United of late. They have managed seven goals in away games at Watford and Arsenal, but Manchester United may also offer West Brom some encouragement having kept just a single clean sheet in the last 6 away from home in all competitions.
The chances that Watford and Arsenal created will make West Brom believe they can have success with a bit of positivity, while the home team should be a threat from set pieces. Both Manchester City and Bournemouth caused problems for Manchester United from set pieces so there are signs that West Brom could have success doing that.
I am a little concerned for West Brom considering the amount of energy invested in the goalless draw at Anfield though. While Manchester United also had to work harder than expected, the West Brom effort would have been both mental and physical in a tough environment and that is likely to have sapped some energy and with less options to rotate than Jose Mourinho has at United.
Both Manchester City and Chelsea have played here in the League this season and both managed to score at least three times. With Manchester United showing some real bite in the final third at Watford and Arsenal, they could become the latest to get in front at The Hawthorns and then pick off their hosts who will try and come forward.
That is why both the over 2.5 goals market and Manchester United covering the Asian Handicap appeal here. The tiredness factor could see United pull away in the second half with a couple of quick strikes to finish off their hosts, but I also think West Brom could play a part in this one before tiredness perhaps takes over.
I can see both markets hitting here at odds against.
The more likely feels like Manchester United to cover the Asian Handicap and I will back that to happen in another important win for Jose Mourinho's men ahead of another big week, but I will also look for at least three goals to be scored in this fixture.
Bournemouth v Liverpool Pick: This is an important game for both Bournemouth and Liverpool who have not had the best weeks in terms of results. Both teams will feel they should have had a few more points on the board than they have earned, and now both Bournemouth and Liverpool are looking for vital points at the bottom and top of the Premier League respectively.
Games between Bournemouth and Liverpool have tended to be very good viewing for the neutrals in the last couple of years and this is another that should feature a few goals.
With the way Bournemouth approach things under Eddie Howe, this is a team that will challenge Liverpool and the porous defence which has been very weak when playing away from Anfield. Only three Premier League clubs have conceded more goals than Liverpool away from home to this point, and Bournemouth will feel they can at least create a few chances in a bid for the upset.
On the other hand it will be tough for Bournemouth to contain a Liverpool team who have scored 20 away League goals which is only surpassed by Manchester City who have also played one more away game. The Reds have been rampant in recent away games which makes them very dangerous and an attack that has not been at their best in the last couple of games never feels that far away from getting things turned back around.
Liverpool have scored at least three goals in wins at West Ham United, Stoke City and Brighton in the Premier League, while they were also 0-3 up at half time in Sevilla in the Champions League. That makes me lean towards them opening up against a Bournemouth team that will allow Liverpool to express themselves and I expect the away side to create chances here.
That makes it a fun game and the layers are not offering great prices on at least three goals being shared out. I expect that will happen here, but I also think Liverpool win the game and you can put those markets together for an odds against quote on Sunday.
All 4 Liverpool away Premier League wins has come in high scoring games, and Bournemouth home games against the big six English clubs have tended to produce goals. Recently Chelsea won here 0-1, but over the last three seasons Bournemouth home games against the top six clubs have ended with a 10-4 lean towards three or more goals compared with two and fewer.
I do think Liverpool are a dangerous away side and they can bounce back for a win here on Sunday and I will look for that to happen in a high scoring fixture.
Everton v Swansea City Pick: There has to be some real discussion at the Liberty Stadium as to whether they should be making a change in the manager's office as Paul Clement has struggled to get a consistent run together. Being bottom of the Premier League at Christmas has historically been a tough position to recover from and Swansea City have not shown the kind of form to think they can get out of their current predicament.
Now they have to travel to face an Everton team who have been rejuvenated by Sam Allardyce and have subsequently won 4 of 5 games in all competitions. The wins in the Premier League have come behind some strong defensive efforts and Everton are going for a fourth straight win at Goodison Park in the Premier League.
You have to think they can do that, although the short odds on Everton suggests the layers have completely forgotten about how much this club was suffering before Allardyce arrived.
That makes it hard to back Everton at short odds, especially as Swansea City have been a well organised team away from home. The problem both at home and on their travels has been the lack of goals being scored and that may be the difference here with Wilfried Bony potentially missing too.
Bony has scored the last couple of Swansea City League goals so his absence would be a blow and I do think Everton are the more likely winners.
Instead of taking them at a short price, I will have a small interest on Everton continuing their recent trend of clean sheets in their wins. All 4 wins in the last couple of weeks have come with a clean sheet including at Newcastle United during the week.
Swansea City have only scored 4 away goals in the Premier League and half of those came in a 0-2 win at Crystal Palace. I will thus have a small interest in Everton winning this one with a clean sheet at a nice looking price.
MY PICKS: Leicester City @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stoke City-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
West Brom-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Liverpool to Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Everton Win to Nil @ 2.70 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)