This is going to be a very short thread.
I am going to have no more tennis picks this week after too many bad luck situations through the last ten days which has really messed with my mind. The final straw today was Elina Svitolina winning 20 more points than her opponent but not being able to get near to the cover, a number which told me all I wanted to know about where the fortune is going this week.
That match alone made me decide sometimes it is better to take a step back, refocus, and get back on the horse.
Another stat that I tweeted out earlier just summed up the way things were going- I took a match from each of the last three days that hasn't covered and noticed my players had 53 break points compared with 26 and yet none of those players could get over the hump. Again, you have to look at the stats and say something is going wrong this week when everything is pointing to it being right.
The numbers don't lie so where I usually apportion the blame to myself and making 'bad picks', this time I am going to say it is clear that I need to hit the reset button on the week. I should have been on the right side of at least five picks this week which has added to at least three more from last week where the players I picked won more points but somehow still conspired to lose the match.
I'm pissed off.
And that means the mind is a little clouded and needs a couple of days to clear up.
On this blog you will see the NBA Picks and the Weekend Football Picks and hopefully I can get next week off to a much better start on Sunday when the ATP Dubai tournament begins. This is a long season for the tennis picks so being able to take a step back and refocus should not be seen as a negative, but a positive to improve the general feeling and then take that forward.
Good luck to those having a better week with their tennis picks than I have been.
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Wednesday, 22 February 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (February 22nd)
I have to admit I was beyond frustrated on Tuesday as once again I was on the wrong side of a player who was dominated when it came to the points won, but who still managed to keep ahead and turn one or two points into a very strong difference on the scoreboard. I've had that far too many times in the last ten days and I will admit that I needed a cooling down period to just compose myself a little bit.
I would much rather have seen players be completely outplayed where I could then say they were just bad picks, but looking like I am on the right side but not having the players I have picked play the big points any better is a little demoralising.
Wednesday is another day though and the last two days could have been a lot worse than they are.
I do want to put a winning day in the books though, if only to give me the feeling that I am getting things turned back around when it comes to the poor luck that has affected my picks, and hopefully I can catch a few breaks and get that in the books.
Ekaterina Makarova - 3.5 games v Lauren Davis: The Third Round in Dubai is played through Wednesday and the opening match on the main court comes between two players with contrasting styles of play. Ekaterina Makarova is going to want to use her strong serve and powerful forehand to dictate play, while Lauren Davis has the edge in terms of movement around the court and ability to play defensive tennis to frustrate her opponent.
It should be a competitive match and one with some intrigue for the neutrals to enjoy. Both players have had some good performances so far this week which has helped them through the draw, but Davis is off the back of a big week in Doha and I do wonder if the amount of tennis she has played will come back to haunt her.
The head to head shows Makarova has been able to dominate behind her serve which is important as the Russian is likely to have break points against the weaker Davis serve.
Her win over Dominika Cibulkova has given Makarova the chance to see someone who has a similar game as Davis, although the latter is not as good as Cibulkova. That should mean that mentally Makarova should be able to cope with all of the defensive tennis she does see and I think the Russian is able to come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
Ana Konjuh - 3.5 games v Elena Vesnina: Anyone who has seen Elena Vesnina play on any regular basis will know that this is a player that can produce a high level of tennis when she is feeling at her best. That is not something that we see regularly, but it always makes it a little dangerous to oppose Vesnina, even with someone as good as Ana Konjuh.
The youngster is still looking to build her consistency which will really get her moving up the World Rankings and both of the wins she has has this week have come thanks to some clutch serving in difficult spots. Konjuh has saved plenty of break points, but Vesnina does have the power to push her backwards and that makes this a tough match for the Croatian.
Vesnina has plenty of power on her groundstrokes and on the serve, but Konjuh has been solid on the return and I do think she can break through a couple of times in this one. If she continues serving as well as she has been, Konjuh should have enough of an edge in this match and should be good enough to win the match.
In 2017 Vesnina has been beaten five times and one of those was a retirement when on the road to a loss. The last three losses have each come in a situation where she would not have covered this number and Konjuh has won two matches impressively so far this week and can battle to a 6-4, 6-4 win in the Third Round.
Kristina Mladenovic - 4.5 games v Qiang Wang: One of the players that has been good to me so far this week is Kristina Mladenovic who has covered in her two matches as I have backed her to do both times. The Frenchwoman had a really good win over Doha Champion Karolina Pliskova in the Second Round and she is playing with a lot of confidence at the moment.
She is a big favourite to beat Qiang Wang in the Third Round and it would be a surprise if Mladenovic is not able to win the match. The bigger question is whether she can cover this number and I am backing Mladenovic to be able to do that.
The Mladenovic serve has been a big weapon for her since she won the title in St Petersburg and it was the reason she was able to outhit Pliskova in the Second Round. She should be able to set up plenty of short balls in this one against Wang and I do think Mladenovic can hit through the court and put Wang on the back foot.
A lot of the Wang Ranking points have been built up off the main Tour and she has generally found the better players a little too much to deal with. The Wang serve is one that Mladenovic should be able to attack and I think her power is going to lead to a 6-3, 6-4 win to move through to the Thursday Quarter Final.
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Christine McHale: One of the form players on the WTA Tour is Elina Svitolina who had to battle through the first set before comfortably coming through her first match in Dubai this week. That has followed a title win in Taipei City and winning a couple of Rubbers for the Ukraine in the Fed Cup and Svitolina has won eight matches in a row and only dropped two sets in that time.
There is so much to like about Svitolina's game and I do think she is someone who can win Grand Slams, but there is still some inconsistency in her game. The serve can either be unplayable or Svitolina can really struggle to back it up, but she is still young and I think that will only improve the more matches she can win.
I do think she has a very good chance of doing that against Christine McHale in the Third Round in Dubai despite the American producing two very good wins already this week. While McHale can serve big when she has that feeling around her game, I do think she can struggle on the returning side of the game and that is where Svitolina should have a considerable edge in the match.
In both of McHale's wins so far this week, she has given up plenty of break points but has been very strong at protecting herself in those spots. I don't think it will be easy for her to that against Svitolina who has been efficient when the break points have come her way and I think she will be too good for McHale in this one.
I think one of the sets will see breaks of serve going both ways, but then Svitolina should take control and come through this one with a 7-6, 6-2 win behind her.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Monica Puig: While 2017 has been a difficult season for Angelique Kerber so far, the win over Mona Barthel in the Second Round in Dubai saw the German at close to her best. There has been too many inconsistent performances from Kerber which have worried her fans, but she looked a little more solid in her win over Barthel and will need to produce a similar level to get the better of Monica Puig in the Third Round on Wednesday.
The match with Puig in the Olympic Gold Medal match was one of the few disappointments in 2017 for Kerber as she was beaten in three sets by the Puerto Rican. It was a day when the big hitting of Puig was consistent enough to break down the Kerber defences and I imagine this match is going to have a similar feel.
It will be one where Puig will look to play her aggressive brand of tennis to try and dictate the play and Kerber will try to weather the storm and use her defensive skills to extract errors from her game. That was where Caroline Wozniacki was successful in beating Puig last week in Doha, but it will be up to Kerber to make sure she doesn't allow her opponent to control things and get on a roll.
I have little doubt it will be a tough match for Kerber who has not been at her very best in 2017 so far, but when she wins she has tended to cover this kind of number. I think the German can build on her win in the Second Round and a similar level of performance to Tuesday will give Kerber a chance to back up a win for just the second tournament of the season.
After some back and forth, I think Kerber can come through with a 7-6, 6-3 win which will give her a little more confidence to take into the rest of the tournament.
Gilles Simon - 3.5 games v Julien Benneteau: Two French veterans meet in front of a home crowd in Marseille for a place in the Quarter Finals in a couple of days time and I do think Gilles Simon will get the better of Julien Benneteau. The head to head does read 6-4 in favour of Simon, but I think Benneteau has slipped a lot more from his prime than Simon.
Benneteau did play well in his win over Denis Shapovalov in the First Round here and it was the serve that proved to be very effective. I have little doubt that Simon is going to put Benneteau under a lot more pressure than the young Canadian did although the Simon serve is vulnerable too and so this is a match that may feature a number of breaks of serve.
I do think that Simon will enjoy the conditions here having won the title in Marseille in 2015 and he did get the better of Benneteau when these players met at the Paris Masters back in October. That did go three sets, but Simon was able to wear down Benneteau during their time on court and I can see a similar situation in this match.
Backing Simon to cover this kind of number can be tough when you think how opponents are able to get into his service games, but I do believe he is the stronger player in this match. It might take a bit of time for Simon to get a real hold of the match, but I think he can come through with 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 kind of win.
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: These indoor tournaments in his homeland have proved to be very good for Richard Gasquet who was the Finalist in Montpellier earlier this month and is one of the favourites in Marseille. The way Gasquet came from behind to beat Robin Haase in the First Round was impressive and I think he is significantly better than Mikhail Youzhny is these days.
This is the first time Youzhny and Gasquet have met since 2013, but both will be familiar with what the other is bringing to the table. The backhand to backhand battle will be one most neutrals will enjoy watching, but Youzhny does break down in the rallies a little more than he used to.
Youzhny's fitness is always in question these days and he came through a tough First Round match against a player that is not of the level of Gasquet. There are still times Youzhny is able to produce some huge serving days where he can be close to the level he had in his prime, but those are less and less common and someone like Gasquet is much more consistent.
As long as Gasquet doesn't give anything away by serving under par level, I think he will find a way to earn a few breaks of serve and that should be enough to get the better of this number. Gasquet has put together plenty of impressive wins of late and I like him winning this match with a 6-3, 6-4 kind of win.
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: The last time these two compatriots met came in Istanbul on the clay courts last season and it was Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who got the better of Federico Delbonis for the first time in the Semi Final there. He will be confident he can do the same again in this Second Round match in Rio de Janeiro, but much will depend on how Delbonis is feeling the ball.
It does feel that Delbonis has the bigger serve, but Schwartzman is the better mover and arguably has the greater patience that you need on a clay court. However that does mean his balls will sit up a little more and allow Delbonis to dictate the play and the question then becomes whether he can get into rhythm and ensure he is not giving up too many unforced errors through the match.
There will be times when Delbonis tries to push a little too hard where he will give up those errors, but I think he should have his chances to break the Schwartzman serve too. The latter can back up his serve effectively, but he is someone who has to work hard to win his points and that can lead to the pressure that a player like Delbonis can put on him being important to the outcome of the match.
I won't be surprised if this needs three sets to separate the two Argentinian players and it wouldn't surprise me if I am on the wrong side of a huge number of break points again. That's a little bit of frustration with the lack of chances being taken when they are there, but breaking this match down, it should be Delbonis who has a little too much firepower when it matters and comes through 6-3, 4-6, 6-4.
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: No one beats Albert Ramos-Vinolas ten times in a row as he snapped a nine match losing run to Fabio Fognini in their most recent match. However this is clearly a poor match up for the Spaniard and I am looking for Fognini to have a little too much and beat the second player from that nation this week.
It has not been a great start to the season for Fognini on the court, but his personal life looks to be in a good place. That hasn't calmed him down on the court though and Fognini can still be so inconsistent from day to day that he is hard to really trust.
However he has played well in Davis Cup action for Italy and Fognini also looked good in his win over Tommy Robredo. There is little doubt he will have to be better against Ramos-Vinolas who has reached a Semi Final and a Quarter Final in the last couple of weeks which should mean he is feeling very confident about his game.
The same problem for Ramos-Vinolas that he has always faced against Fognini still is in play. The latter can rally with him and outlast Ramos-Vinolas, while he gets a pretty good read on the serve and makes sure plenty of balls are returned in play. I am also not convinced Ramos-Vinolas is 100% at full fitness at this moment either and I like Fognini to battle past him with a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win.
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: I have little doubt that Dominic Thiem has the talent to maintain a standing in the top 10 of the ATP Tour over the next few seasons, but he has to get some help with his schedule. I am not sure who decides the tournaments he is playing, but they are going to exhaust Thiem over the course of a long season and the decision to play in Rotterdam last week and then travel across for a clay court tournament in the next is baffling to me.
Thiem did battle through his First Round match against Janko Tipsarevic and it should be said that the Austrian is arguably at his best on the clay courts. I expect that win will have got Thiem settled down in the current conditions in Rio de Janeiro and I think he can get the better of the Serbian Dusan Lajovic.
This is the best surface for Lajovic too, but he has had a tough start to the new season and an early loss in Buenos Aires was a disappointment for him. That has seen Lajovic move down the World Rankings and he is on the brink of falling out of the top 100 which makes this an important week for him.
His serve is not the strongest and I don't think Lajovic will want to get involved in too many long rallies with Thiem who has the stronger backhand and should have a little more pop on the groundstrokes. That should see him dictate the rallies and I think Thiem will win this Second Round match with a slightly higher margin than he did in the First Round and I will back him to cover this number of games.
MY PICKS: Ekaterina Makarova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ana Konjuh - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-9, - 10.70 Units (26 Units Staked, - 41.15% Yield)
I would much rather have seen players be completely outplayed where I could then say they were just bad picks, but looking like I am on the right side but not having the players I have picked play the big points any better is a little demoralising.
Wednesday is another day though and the last two days could have been a lot worse than they are.
I do want to put a winning day in the books though, if only to give me the feeling that I am getting things turned back around when it comes to the poor luck that has affected my picks, and hopefully I can catch a few breaks and get that in the books.
Ekaterina Makarova - 3.5 games v Lauren Davis: The Third Round in Dubai is played through Wednesday and the opening match on the main court comes between two players with contrasting styles of play. Ekaterina Makarova is going to want to use her strong serve and powerful forehand to dictate play, while Lauren Davis has the edge in terms of movement around the court and ability to play defensive tennis to frustrate her opponent.
It should be a competitive match and one with some intrigue for the neutrals to enjoy. Both players have had some good performances so far this week which has helped them through the draw, but Davis is off the back of a big week in Doha and I do wonder if the amount of tennis she has played will come back to haunt her.
The head to head shows Makarova has been able to dominate behind her serve which is important as the Russian is likely to have break points against the weaker Davis serve.
Her win over Dominika Cibulkova has given Makarova the chance to see someone who has a similar game as Davis, although the latter is not as good as Cibulkova. That should mean that mentally Makarova should be able to cope with all of the defensive tennis she does see and I think the Russian is able to come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
Ana Konjuh - 3.5 games v Elena Vesnina: Anyone who has seen Elena Vesnina play on any regular basis will know that this is a player that can produce a high level of tennis when she is feeling at her best. That is not something that we see regularly, but it always makes it a little dangerous to oppose Vesnina, even with someone as good as Ana Konjuh.
The youngster is still looking to build her consistency which will really get her moving up the World Rankings and both of the wins she has has this week have come thanks to some clutch serving in difficult spots. Konjuh has saved plenty of break points, but Vesnina does have the power to push her backwards and that makes this a tough match for the Croatian.
Vesnina has plenty of power on her groundstrokes and on the serve, but Konjuh has been solid on the return and I do think she can break through a couple of times in this one. If she continues serving as well as she has been, Konjuh should have enough of an edge in this match and should be good enough to win the match.
In 2017 Vesnina has been beaten five times and one of those was a retirement when on the road to a loss. The last three losses have each come in a situation where she would not have covered this number and Konjuh has won two matches impressively so far this week and can battle to a 6-4, 6-4 win in the Third Round.
Kristina Mladenovic - 4.5 games v Qiang Wang: One of the players that has been good to me so far this week is Kristina Mladenovic who has covered in her two matches as I have backed her to do both times. The Frenchwoman had a really good win over Doha Champion Karolina Pliskova in the Second Round and she is playing with a lot of confidence at the moment.
She is a big favourite to beat Qiang Wang in the Third Round and it would be a surprise if Mladenovic is not able to win the match. The bigger question is whether she can cover this number and I am backing Mladenovic to be able to do that.
The Mladenovic serve has been a big weapon for her since she won the title in St Petersburg and it was the reason she was able to outhit Pliskova in the Second Round. She should be able to set up plenty of short balls in this one against Wang and I do think Mladenovic can hit through the court and put Wang on the back foot.
A lot of the Wang Ranking points have been built up off the main Tour and she has generally found the better players a little too much to deal with. The Wang serve is one that Mladenovic should be able to attack and I think her power is going to lead to a 6-3, 6-4 win to move through to the Thursday Quarter Final.
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Christine McHale: One of the form players on the WTA Tour is Elina Svitolina who had to battle through the first set before comfortably coming through her first match in Dubai this week. That has followed a title win in Taipei City and winning a couple of Rubbers for the Ukraine in the Fed Cup and Svitolina has won eight matches in a row and only dropped two sets in that time.
There is so much to like about Svitolina's game and I do think she is someone who can win Grand Slams, but there is still some inconsistency in her game. The serve can either be unplayable or Svitolina can really struggle to back it up, but she is still young and I think that will only improve the more matches she can win.
I do think she has a very good chance of doing that against Christine McHale in the Third Round in Dubai despite the American producing two very good wins already this week. While McHale can serve big when she has that feeling around her game, I do think she can struggle on the returning side of the game and that is where Svitolina should have a considerable edge in the match.
In both of McHale's wins so far this week, she has given up plenty of break points but has been very strong at protecting herself in those spots. I don't think it will be easy for her to that against Svitolina who has been efficient when the break points have come her way and I think she will be too good for McHale in this one.
I think one of the sets will see breaks of serve going both ways, but then Svitolina should take control and come through this one with a 7-6, 6-2 win behind her.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Monica Puig: While 2017 has been a difficult season for Angelique Kerber so far, the win over Mona Barthel in the Second Round in Dubai saw the German at close to her best. There has been too many inconsistent performances from Kerber which have worried her fans, but she looked a little more solid in her win over Barthel and will need to produce a similar level to get the better of Monica Puig in the Third Round on Wednesday.
The match with Puig in the Olympic Gold Medal match was one of the few disappointments in 2017 for Kerber as she was beaten in three sets by the Puerto Rican. It was a day when the big hitting of Puig was consistent enough to break down the Kerber defences and I imagine this match is going to have a similar feel.
It will be one where Puig will look to play her aggressive brand of tennis to try and dictate the play and Kerber will try to weather the storm and use her defensive skills to extract errors from her game. That was where Caroline Wozniacki was successful in beating Puig last week in Doha, but it will be up to Kerber to make sure she doesn't allow her opponent to control things and get on a roll.
I have little doubt it will be a tough match for Kerber who has not been at her very best in 2017 so far, but when she wins she has tended to cover this kind of number. I think the German can build on her win in the Second Round and a similar level of performance to Tuesday will give Kerber a chance to back up a win for just the second tournament of the season.
After some back and forth, I think Kerber can come through with a 7-6, 6-3 win which will give her a little more confidence to take into the rest of the tournament.
Gilles Simon - 3.5 games v Julien Benneteau: Two French veterans meet in front of a home crowd in Marseille for a place in the Quarter Finals in a couple of days time and I do think Gilles Simon will get the better of Julien Benneteau. The head to head does read 6-4 in favour of Simon, but I think Benneteau has slipped a lot more from his prime than Simon.
Benneteau did play well in his win over Denis Shapovalov in the First Round here and it was the serve that proved to be very effective. I have little doubt that Simon is going to put Benneteau under a lot more pressure than the young Canadian did although the Simon serve is vulnerable too and so this is a match that may feature a number of breaks of serve.
I do think that Simon will enjoy the conditions here having won the title in Marseille in 2015 and he did get the better of Benneteau when these players met at the Paris Masters back in October. That did go three sets, but Simon was able to wear down Benneteau during their time on court and I can see a similar situation in this match.
Backing Simon to cover this kind of number can be tough when you think how opponents are able to get into his service games, but I do believe he is the stronger player in this match. It might take a bit of time for Simon to get a real hold of the match, but I think he can come through with 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 kind of win.
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: These indoor tournaments in his homeland have proved to be very good for Richard Gasquet who was the Finalist in Montpellier earlier this month and is one of the favourites in Marseille. The way Gasquet came from behind to beat Robin Haase in the First Round was impressive and I think he is significantly better than Mikhail Youzhny is these days.
This is the first time Youzhny and Gasquet have met since 2013, but both will be familiar with what the other is bringing to the table. The backhand to backhand battle will be one most neutrals will enjoy watching, but Youzhny does break down in the rallies a little more than he used to.
Youzhny's fitness is always in question these days and he came through a tough First Round match against a player that is not of the level of Gasquet. There are still times Youzhny is able to produce some huge serving days where he can be close to the level he had in his prime, but those are less and less common and someone like Gasquet is much more consistent.
As long as Gasquet doesn't give anything away by serving under par level, I think he will find a way to earn a few breaks of serve and that should be enough to get the better of this number. Gasquet has put together plenty of impressive wins of late and I like him winning this match with a 6-3, 6-4 kind of win.
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: The last time these two compatriots met came in Istanbul on the clay courts last season and it was Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who got the better of Federico Delbonis for the first time in the Semi Final there. He will be confident he can do the same again in this Second Round match in Rio de Janeiro, but much will depend on how Delbonis is feeling the ball.
It does feel that Delbonis has the bigger serve, but Schwartzman is the better mover and arguably has the greater patience that you need on a clay court. However that does mean his balls will sit up a little more and allow Delbonis to dictate the play and the question then becomes whether he can get into rhythm and ensure he is not giving up too many unforced errors through the match.
There will be times when Delbonis tries to push a little too hard where he will give up those errors, but I think he should have his chances to break the Schwartzman serve too. The latter can back up his serve effectively, but he is someone who has to work hard to win his points and that can lead to the pressure that a player like Delbonis can put on him being important to the outcome of the match.
I won't be surprised if this needs three sets to separate the two Argentinian players and it wouldn't surprise me if I am on the wrong side of a huge number of break points again. That's a little bit of frustration with the lack of chances being taken when they are there, but breaking this match down, it should be Delbonis who has a little too much firepower when it matters and comes through 6-3, 4-6, 6-4.
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: No one beats Albert Ramos-Vinolas ten times in a row as he snapped a nine match losing run to Fabio Fognini in their most recent match. However this is clearly a poor match up for the Spaniard and I am looking for Fognini to have a little too much and beat the second player from that nation this week.
It has not been a great start to the season for Fognini on the court, but his personal life looks to be in a good place. That hasn't calmed him down on the court though and Fognini can still be so inconsistent from day to day that he is hard to really trust.
However he has played well in Davis Cup action for Italy and Fognini also looked good in his win over Tommy Robredo. There is little doubt he will have to be better against Ramos-Vinolas who has reached a Semi Final and a Quarter Final in the last couple of weeks which should mean he is feeling very confident about his game.
The same problem for Ramos-Vinolas that he has always faced against Fognini still is in play. The latter can rally with him and outlast Ramos-Vinolas, while he gets a pretty good read on the serve and makes sure plenty of balls are returned in play. I am also not convinced Ramos-Vinolas is 100% at full fitness at this moment either and I like Fognini to battle past him with a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win.
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: I have little doubt that Dominic Thiem has the talent to maintain a standing in the top 10 of the ATP Tour over the next few seasons, but he has to get some help with his schedule. I am not sure who decides the tournaments he is playing, but they are going to exhaust Thiem over the course of a long season and the decision to play in Rotterdam last week and then travel across for a clay court tournament in the next is baffling to me.
Thiem did battle through his First Round match against Janko Tipsarevic and it should be said that the Austrian is arguably at his best on the clay courts. I expect that win will have got Thiem settled down in the current conditions in Rio de Janeiro and I think he can get the better of the Serbian Dusan Lajovic.
This is the best surface for Lajovic too, but he has had a tough start to the new season and an early loss in Buenos Aires was a disappointment for him. That has seen Lajovic move down the World Rankings and he is on the brink of falling out of the top 100 which makes this an important week for him.
His serve is not the strongest and I don't think Lajovic will want to get involved in too many long rallies with Thiem who has the stronger backhand and should have a little more pop on the groundstrokes. That should see him dictate the rallies and I think Thiem will win this Second Round match with a slightly higher margin than he did in the First Round and I will back him to cover this number of games.
MY PICKS: Ekaterina Makarova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ana Konjuh - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-9, - 10.70 Units (26 Units Staked, - 41.15% Yield)
Tuesday, 21 February 2017
Midweek Football Picks 2017 (February 21-23)
This week is set for the remaining Last 16 Champions League First Legs as well as the conclusion of the Europa League Last 32 which will be followed by the draw for the Last 16 on Friday.
There is a lot of football to be played over the next three days and I will begin my picks with the Champions League, then the Championship fixtures this week and finally the Europa League Last 32 Second Legs with all of those picks placed in this thread.
Bayer Leverkusen v Atletico Madrid Pick: If this match up had been created in the Champions League Knock Out Rounds twelve months ago, I think Atletico Madrid would be a strong favourite with the oddsmakers and with the fans to beat Bayer Leverkusen. The oddsmakers still favour the Spanish side considerably, but the last few months have been amongst the most difficult of Diego Simeone's reign as manager of Atletico Madrid and that might put a few off from backing them.
The positive for Atletico Madrid is they are not playing a team who have been winning a lot of matches back home and so aren't coming in with a hugely superior confidence. Bayer Leverkusen are in 8th place in the Bundesliga and have been inconsistent, while their home record in the Champions League shows they are hard to beat, but also can struggle to take the next step and win football matches.
The Leverkusen fans will point to the 1-0 win over Atletico Madrid in this Round two years ago, but both teams have a different feel about them now, although I am anticipating another closely fought tie over the two Legs.
Atletico Madrid look short here despite winning 2 of their 3 away Champions League games in the Group. They have not won any of their last 5 away Knock Out ties in the competition, but on the other hand it is hard to back Bayer Leverkusen to win knowing how many of their recent home European games have ended in draws.
The draw does look a big player in the First Leg as both teams will feel that keeps them in the tie for the Second Leg next month at the Vicente Calderon. Bayer Leverkusen will be looking to avoid handing an away goal to Atletico Madrid, while Diego Simeone has to feel his side can beat anyone at home considering they have won 7 of their last 8 in front of their fans in the Champions League.
Instead I am going to look for a recent Atletico Madrid trend in the Champions League to keep going, even without Diego Godin marshalling the troops. 8 of their last 12 away Champions League games have ended with one or fewer goals shared out and that includes in all 3 of their Group games earlier in the season.
The Bayer Leverkusen home games tend to be higher-scoring ones, but I don't think either team will want to take too many risks in this one and the tightness of their games two seasons ago could be replicated in both Legs this time too. Backing under 1.5 goals for a small interest looks the way to go in this one at a decent looking price.
Manchester City v Monaco Pick: I will admit that when the draw was first made for the Champions League Last 16, I thought Manchester City had got away with one by being paired with Monaco. The French League leaders had come through a weak Group at that time, but they have shown little sign of slowing down in the last two months and this is a genuinely tough tie for both clubs.
Anyone who underestimates Monaco like I did initially should be aware of their stunning win over Arsenal in the Last 16 two seasons ago as well as the fact they have beaten Tottenham Hotspur home and away this season. Unlike 'Arry Redknapp, I think Manchester City are a superior team to Tottenham Hotspur and so I do think they will offer Monaco a sterner test, but this looks like a tie that will go down to the last minute of the Second Leg.
Manchester City have been strong at home in recent weeks and they have a very positive record in recent Champions League games. They are unbeaten in 9 Champions League games here which includes visits from the likes of Sevilla, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid and Barcelona (Manchester City have won 3 of those games) and the players look more comfortable in the demands from their manager.
Facing a Monaco team who have won 3 of their last 10 away European games and were beaten heavily at Bayer Leverkusen and you can understand why Manchester City are the short favourites to win the First Leg. However I think this is going to be far from easy for Manchester City as Monaco have shown they have plenty of pace and goals in the squad and I do think they can play a part in this one.
Manchester City have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 11 games at home in all competitions so it might be a surprise if this Monaco team, who have scored goals for fun all season, is unable to breach this defence. With the two managers in the dug outs, I would be stunned if this isn't a game full of attacking intention and I do think there will be chances at both ends of the field in what could be a really entertaining First Leg.
It has all the makings of a First Leg that can continue the trend from last week and that is producing plenty of goalmouth action and I am looking to see goals.
This is the fourth time in three seasons that Monaco are visiting England and all three previous games have seen both teams score and at least three goals shared out. I anticipate the same will happen here but I will just keep things simple and back at least three goals to be scored in this match.
Porto v Juventus Pick: Over the two Legs of this Last 16 tie, I would be surprised if Juventus aren't going to be progressing to another Quarter Final in the Champions League. They have reinvested the Paul Pogba money to improve their squad and I do feel Juventus are a genuine threat to win an open Champions League competition in the next two months.
That is no disrespect to Porto, but I think this former Champions League winner is perhaps in the third tier of European clubs these days. They finished behind Leicester City in the Group Stage, which has to be a concern, and Porto is not the fortress it has been in recent European games here.
Prior to the wins over Club Brugge and Leicester City, Porto had not won any of 4 home games in European competition. That run had seen them lose to Dynamo Kiev and Borussia Dortmund before draws with Roma and Copenhagen.
The Play Off win over Roma has to give Porto confidence they can stun Juventus too, but they were aided by three sendings off in the two Legs and were trailing Roma at home before one of those helped them earn the draw.
Juventus have also played well away from home in the Champions League in recent games which is a different feel to previous squads that may not have been as strong on their travels as they are at home. Winning at Lyon and Sevilla in the Group Stage and leading 0-2 at Bayern Munich in the Champions League Quarter Final last season shows what Juventus can do and they simply don't do draws on their travels this season.
It won't be easy for Juventus because Porto have a long unbeaten run at home to protect, but I think the Italian Champions can earn a priceless away win in the First Leg this week. They score goals and Juventus still defend pretty well which can see them earn the narrow win here and put themselves in a very strong position for the Second Leg at home next month.
Juventus are odds against to win here, and I will back them to do that.
Sevilla v Leicester City Pick: There are times when everything seems to point one way in a football match and then the opposite happens, but I can't see a way that Sevilla are not going to have a healthy lead to take to The King Power Stadium in the Second Leg next month. Sevilla have been one of the highlights of the Spanish Football scene this season while Leicester City have been on an awful run and are mired in a downward spiral that looks destined to see them relegated from the Premier League.
Confidence could not be in two contrasting places going into the First Leg and the high press of Sevilla is likely going to lead to some Leicester City mistakes.
Some will say that Leicester City have saved their best for the Champions League, but I never bought into that line of thinking and simply looked at a Group that most English clubs would expect to Qualify from. It was only Porto's draw with Copenhagen at home which prevented them winning the Group instead as they thumped Leicester City at home and The Foxes have been on a tremendously poor run of form.
Maybe the Champions League will free up those players, but this is a squad that looks short of belief and Claudio Ranieri is struggling to find the answers. Sevilla are also a team with a lot of European experience and have won 6 of their last 8 European ties with only the likes of Athletic Bilbao and Juventus escaping with a result in that time.
Leicester City are clearly not of that level and the focus for all at the club has to be the Premier League. I don't think Ranieri plays a weakened side here, but his first eleven are not exactly inspiring much confidence in their play and I think Sevilla will win this one by a couple of goals and move into a commanding position for the Second Leg.
Last week we saw three of the four Champions League First Legs end with the home team winning by at least two goals and I will look for Sevilla to become the latest to reach that mark.
Derby County v Burton Albion Pick: I have been burnt backing Derby County to win their last two home games and that is very disappointing when you think they scored six times in those games. Not many teams will score at least three goals in back to back home games and win neither, but that is where Derby County find themselves having begun to leak more goals at home.
They have conceded at least twice in their last 4 games here in all competitions and Burton Albion have to be encouraged having seen the likes of Bristol City and Cardiff City score at least three goals as the last two visitors to The iPro Stadium.
Burton Albion have only failed to score in 1 of their last 7 away from home in the League and this feels like another match in which both teams can play their part which has become a regular occurrence in Derby County recent home games. You would still think Derby County will have too much going forward considering Burton Albion have not had a clean sheet in their last 10 away League games and conceded at least twice in 6 of those.
It's hard to trust Derby County after they have let me down so consistently in their last two games, but I think they will probably win this one. However I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out as I can see Burton Albion playing their part in the outcome of this one too and that looks a decent price at odds against.
Huddersfield Town v Reading Pick: There were two angles on this fixture that I wanted to go and had to decide which of those is the more appealing- the first was backing Huddersfield Town to continue a strong run at home and win this game, while the other was backing at least three goals to be shared out at what looks a very big price.
I have decided to go with the latter of those options because I do think Reading are playing well enough away from home to at least score here and Huddersfield Town are still more than capable of scoring the goals to win the match.
Reading might have the edge having had a week to prepare for the game too which just put me off backing Huddersfield Town to win, but The Royals don't really do clean sheets away from home.
6 of the last 7 away League games Reading have played has seen their opponent score at least twice, but the side have also managed to score at least two goals in 4 of their last 5 which is why they have only lost 1 of their last 5 away games. 5 of the last 7 Huddersfield Town home games have also featured at least three goals shared out with one of the exceptions being a 1-1 draw.
I fully anticipate both teams can score in this one and the potential for what the three points can do should mean both David Wagner and Jaap Stam encourage their team to attack until the end of the game. The last three games at Huddersfield Town between these two clubs have also produced plenty of fireworks and I am expecting a very good game of football between them on Tuesday evening as both look to close on the automatic promotion spots.
Goals might be the order of the day at odds against and I will look for the three goal mark to be hit at least.
Sheffield Wednesday v Brentford Pick: No one should be underestimating a Brentford team who may have lost 3 away League games in a row, but one who led at both Preston North End and Reading before losing those games. That makes them potentially dangerous with all the pressure on Sheffield Wednesday to keep away from the teams after the Play Off spots, but the goals being conceded by Brentford makes it hard to believe in them.
That should be an area that Sheffield Wednesday can expose as they have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 League games and also in their last 3 at Hillsborough. Defensively The Owls remain one of the stronger teams in the Division and they also have won their last 2 home games against Brentford.
It does all point to Sheffield Wednesday improving their run of 6 wins in 7 League games at home and they look a decent price to do that. I was a little surprised they are shorter than Reading were to beat Brentford last week, but Sheffield Wednesday are one of the form teams in the Championship and they can win this one at odds on.
I do think Brentford can cause some problems, but ultimately Sheffield Wednesday have the edge in both final thirds and that should see them earn another important three points.
Bristol City v Fulham Pick: Both Bristol City and Fulham will be desperate for the three points available in this fixture which is part of their make up list in the League. Both know the importance of the three points they can earn for their respective goals and we could see a decent match at Ashton Gate on Wednesday.
Scoring goals hasn't been a problem for either team, but they have had issues when it comes to defending and keeping teams from scoring.
That could be in evidence on Wednesday as both Bristol City and Fulham prefer being on the front foot and this could provide yet another high-scoring game in the Championship during the week.
The last 4 overall between these teams, including both this season, and 5 of the last 6 at Ashton Gate between them have produced at least three goals and I would be surprised if that was not the case in this one. Bristol City are the team who will push forward at home which has seen them score plenty, but also concede at least twice in 4 straight before goal-shy Rotherham United pitched up in town.
None of the last 5 Fulham away games have featured at least three goals, but they can't afford to sit back and give away these valuable points and the teams can contribute for at least three goals on Wednesday. I would expect both teams to score at least once and from there is it is anyone's chance to win.
Fenerbahce v Krasnodar Pick: This tie is finely poised between Fenerbahce and Krasnodar and I do wonder if the lack of an away goal for the Turkish club will come back and haunt them. However Fenerbahce have played very well at home in European competition and winning 8 in a row here in either the Champions League or Europa League will give them the belief they can turn this tie around.
Fenerbahce have beaten the likes of Monaco, Manchester United and Feyenoord in those run of home wins and they also beat Lokomotiv Moscow from Russia at this stage last season. The passion from the home side should inspire the home players and I think they can get the better of Krasnodar on the night, but whether that will be enough to win the tie is another issue.
They are facing a team who haven't had a lot of competitive football in the last few months and Krasnodar have struggled on their travels. They have lost half of their last 6 away games in the Europa League and Krasnodar only scored a single goal in those losses.
I do think Fenerbahce will be the better team on the night and I think they are going to be a little too good for Krasnodar. I think they are the more likely team to progress, but I will keep it simple and just back Fenerbahce to win this one in the 90 minutes.
St-Etienne v Manchester United Pick: In all honesty this tie should already be over after Manchester United put a gloss on the First Leg with a couple of late goals to take a 3-0 lead to France. They created enough chances in the First Leg to expect Manchester United to score here, especially with Jose Mourinho admitting he will play a strong team, and an away goal will be too much for St-Etienne to overcome.
However you have to acknowledge the size of the game for St-Etienne for both the players and the fans and I fully expect them to want to exit the Europa League with some pride. If they score the first goal early on there could be some nerves in the Manchester United team that St-Etienne will look to take advantage of, but ultimately their goal has to be to try and win the game and go out with some pride.
St-Etienne have played well at home in recent weeks and they have shown at Old Trafford that they can create chances which will make them a threat in this Second Leg. They won't want to see their home winning run come to an end having won their last 3 here and St-Etienne have to feel they have a chance against a Manchester United team that have lost 6 of their last 8 away European games.
The problem for St-Etienne is always going to be whether they have enough to contain Manchester United's attack when they are pushing forward and I think the Second Leg could be as entertaining as the game at Old Trafford was. St-Etienne can play their part again and backing at least three goals to be shared out at odds against could be a big price at the end of this Second Leg.
Ajax v Legia Warsaw Pick: The goalless draw in Warsaw last week means Ajax and Legia Warsaw will both believe they have a chance to progress through to the Last 16. The home advantage is likely to be the difference maker for Ajax though and I do think the Dutch side can get past the team exiting the Champions League at the Group Stage.
Ajax have drawn a lot of their recent home games in Europe which is a concern for them, but they did win 3 in a row in the Group earlier this season. Those wins over Panathinaikos, Celta Vigo and Standard Liege will give Ajax the belief they can get the better of Legia Warsaw and they have also won 12 of their last 13 games here in all competitions.
It won't be easy when you consider Legia Warsaw have won 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions. However they were beaten in all 3 away games in their Champions League Group Stage and Legia Warsaw have lost 6 of their last 9 away games in European competition.
The first goal is going to be critical in this Second Leg, because it will force the other team to play much more expansively. If Ajax can go ahead, I think they will be able to pick off Legia Warsaw in the second half to get past a difficult test in the Last 32 and I will back them on the Asian Handicap.
Fiorentina v Borussia Monchengladbach Pick: The 0-1 lead from the First Leg might give Fiorentina the advantage in this Europa League Last 32 tie, but it is not one that guarantees progress to the next Round. Of course Fiorentina will be the favourites to progress, but they have lost half of their last 8 home Europa League games and a defeat here would likely send them out of the competition.
They are facing a Borussia Monchengladbach team who have lost back to back games over the last week, but one who have won 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions. Like Fiorentina, they are not as strong in European games though as they have lost 5 of their last 8 on their travels and they are under the pressure of having to score here.
Fiorentina have been playing well domestically with 5 wins in 7 games at home since their 2-3 loss to PAOK in the Group Stage of the Europa League. They have scored at least twice in 7 of their last 8 home games and I think Fiorentina can win this Second Leg to earn their place in the Last 16.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is a higher scoring game than the one in Germany last week, and I am anticipating goals to be scored too, but Fiorentina can just get ahead of Borussia Monchengladbach and win this Second Leg. I will also make a rare decision to also back at least three goals to be shared out at a decent price in this one as I am expecting a 2-1 scoreline in favour of the home team and both teams can produce an entertaining game.
Tottenham Hotspur v Gent Pick: I really wasn't sure that Tottenham Hotspur would be sending out as strong a starting eleven as they did in either of their last two games and so now it would be a weird decision to not try and win this Europa League Last 32 Second Leg. The 1-0 defeat in Belgium has put Tottenham Hotspur in an awkward position, but they will believe they have enough quality to turn things around at Wembley Stadium on Thursday.
The 2 losses here in the Champions League cost Tottenham Hotspur their spot in the Last 16 of that competition, but they did beat CSKA Moscow 3-1 here and I would think they can match that margin of win at the least. The big names should all be playing and Tottenham Hotspur recognise the need to keep two avenues into the Champions League open at this time.
For Gent a decision was made to rest some of the starters as the club are desperate to get into the Championship Round of the Belgian top flight. They might send out a more recognised team having headed over to London with a 1-0 lead, but the main ambition may be to defend in numbers and frustrate the Premier League club like they did in Belgium last week.
However Gent were hammered at Shakhtar Donetsk, the club most closely linked to the level of Tottenham Hotspur, when they met in the Group Stage of this competition. Gent have not played as well on their travels as they have at home in recent months and I am going to back the home team to win by a margin that sends them through to the Last 16 without the need for extra time.
Genk v Astra Pick: Neither Genk nor Astra are considered a real threat to win the Europa League, but the winner of this tie will move through to the Last 16 where they could be potentially paired with a really big name of European Football. The tie looks to be in the balance after a 2-2 draw in the First Leg, although obviously Genk have the advantage of being able to go through with a low scoring draw.
I am not anticipating that to be the case as Astra have shown some attacking potential away from home in the Europa League this season. They are also a team that can capitulate when pressing too far forward, but there is no choice for Astra as they need to either win 0-1 or score at least twice to get anything out of this tie.
That should mean Genk have opportunities on the counter attack, even though they have lost some big players in January, and we should seen an open contest as long as Astra still have a chance. If Genk do move into a 2-0 lead it is a game that could potentially fizzle out if the away side have just lost a bit of belief in what they are doing, but most other scorelines should see Astra really give this a go.
4 of 5 Astra away games in Europe this season have ended with at least three goals shared out and I will look for this to be another one.
MY PICKS: Bayer Leverkusen-Atletico Madrid Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.88 Betfair (1 Unit)
Manchester City-Monaco Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Juventus @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sevilla - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Derby County-Burton Albion Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Reading Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sheffield Wednesday @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bristol City-Fulham Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fenerbahce @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
St-Etienne-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ajax - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.07 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fiorentina @ 2.50 Stan James (2 Units)
Fiorentina-Borussia Monchengladbach Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet365 (2 Units)
Genk-Astra Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
There is a lot of football to be played over the next three days and I will begin my picks with the Champions League, then the Championship fixtures this week and finally the Europa League Last 32 Second Legs with all of those picks placed in this thread.
Bayer Leverkusen v Atletico Madrid Pick: If this match up had been created in the Champions League Knock Out Rounds twelve months ago, I think Atletico Madrid would be a strong favourite with the oddsmakers and with the fans to beat Bayer Leverkusen. The oddsmakers still favour the Spanish side considerably, but the last few months have been amongst the most difficult of Diego Simeone's reign as manager of Atletico Madrid and that might put a few off from backing them.
The positive for Atletico Madrid is they are not playing a team who have been winning a lot of matches back home and so aren't coming in with a hugely superior confidence. Bayer Leverkusen are in 8th place in the Bundesliga and have been inconsistent, while their home record in the Champions League shows they are hard to beat, but also can struggle to take the next step and win football matches.
The Leverkusen fans will point to the 1-0 win over Atletico Madrid in this Round two years ago, but both teams have a different feel about them now, although I am anticipating another closely fought tie over the two Legs.
Atletico Madrid look short here despite winning 2 of their 3 away Champions League games in the Group. They have not won any of their last 5 away Knock Out ties in the competition, but on the other hand it is hard to back Bayer Leverkusen to win knowing how many of their recent home European games have ended in draws.
The draw does look a big player in the First Leg as both teams will feel that keeps them in the tie for the Second Leg next month at the Vicente Calderon. Bayer Leverkusen will be looking to avoid handing an away goal to Atletico Madrid, while Diego Simeone has to feel his side can beat anyone at home considering they have won 7 of their last 8 in front of their fans in the Champions League.
Instead I am going to look for a recent Atletico Madrid trend in the Champions League to keep going, even without Diego Godin marshalling the troops. 8 of their last 12 away Champions League games have ended with one or fewer goals shared out and that includes in all 3 of their Group games earlier in the season.
The Bayer Leverkusen home games tend to be higher-scoring ones, but I don't think either team will want to take too many risks in this one and the tightness of their games two seasons ago could be replicated in both Legs this time too. Backing under 1.5 goals for a small interest looks the way to go in this one at a decent looking price.
Manchester City v Monaco Pick: I will admit that when the draw was first made for the Champions League Last 16, I thought Manchester City had got away with one by being paired with Monaco. The French League leaders had come through a weak Group at that time, but they have shown little sign of slowing down in the last two months and this is a genuinely tough tie for both clubs.
Anyone who underestimates Monaco like I did initially should be aware of their stunning win over Arsenal in the Last 16 two seasons ago as well as the fact they have beaten Tottenham Hotspur home and away this season. Unlike 'Arry Redknapp, I think Manchester City are a superior team to Tottenham Hotspur and so I do think they will offer Monaco a sterner test, but this looks like a tie that will go down to the last minute of the Second Leg.
Manchester City have been strong at home in recent weeks and they have a very positive record in recent Champions League games. They are unbeaten in 9 Champions League games here which includes visits from the likes of Sevilla, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid and Barcelona (Manchester City have won 3 of those games) and the players look more comfortable in the demands from their manager.
Facing a Monaco team who have won 3 of their last 10 away European games and were beaten heavily at Bayer Leverkusen and you can understand why Manchester City are the short favourites to win the First Leg. However I think this is going to be far from easy for Manchester City as Monaco have shown they have plenty of pace and goals in the squad and I do think they can play a part in this one.
Manchester City have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 11 games at home in all competitions so it might be a surprise if this Monaco team, who have scored goals for fun all season, is unable to breach this defence. With the two managers in the dug outs, I would be stunned if this isn't a game full of attacking intention and I do think there will be chances at both ends of the field in what could be a really entertaining First Leg.
It has all the makings of a First Leg that can continue the trend from last week and that is producing plenty of goalmouth action and I am looking to see goals.
This is the fourth time in three seasons that Monaco are visiting England and all three previous games have seen both teams score and at least three goals shared out. I anticipate the same will happen here but I will just keep things simple and back at least three goals to be scored in this match.
Porto v Juventus Pick: Over the two Legs of this Last 16 tie, I would be surprised if Juventus aren't going to be progressing to another Quarter Final in the Champions League. They have reinvested the Paul Pogba money to improve their squad and I do feel Juventus are a genuine threat to win an open Champions League competition in the next two months.
That is no disrespect to Porto, but I think this former Champions League winner is perhaps in the third tier of European clubs these days. They finished behind Leicester City in the Group Stage, which has to be a concern, and Porto is not the fortress it has been in recent European games here.
Prior to the wins over Club Brugge and Leicester City, Porto had not won any of 4 home games in European competition. That run had seen them lose to Dynamo Kiev and Borussia Dortmund before draws with Roma and Copenhagen.
The Play Off win over Roma has to give Porto confidence they can stun Juventus too, but they were aided by three sendings off in the two Legs and were trailing Roma at home before one of those helped them earn the draw.
Juventus have also played well away from home in the Champions League in recent games which is a different feel to previous squads that may not have been as strong on their travels as they are at home. Winning at Lyon and Sevilla in the Group Stage and leading 0-2 at Bayern Munich in the Champions League Quarter Final last season shows what Juventus can do and they simply don't do draws on their travels this season.
It won't be easy for Juventus because Porto have a long unbeaten run at home to protect, but I think the Italian Champions can earn a priceless away win in the First Leg this week. They score goals and Juventus still defend pretty well which can see them earn the narrow win here and put themselves in a very strong position for the Second Leg at home next month.
Juventus are odds against to win here, and I will back them to do that.
Sevilla v Leicester City Pick: There are times when everything seems to point one way in a football match and then the opposite happens, but I can't see a way that Sevilla are not going to have a healthy lead to take to The King Power Stadium in the Second Leg next month. Sevilla have been one of the highlights of the Spanish Football scene this season while Leicester City have been on an awful run and are mired in a downward spiral that looks destined to see them relegated from the Premier League.
Confidence could not be in two contrasting places going into the First Leg and the high press of Sevilla is likely going to lead to some Leicester City mistakes.
Some will say that Leicester City have saved their best for the Champions League, but I never bought into that line of thinking and simply looked at a Group that most English clubs would expect to Qualify from. It was only Porto's draw with Copenhagen at home which prevented them winning the Group instead as they thumped Leicester City at home and The Foxes have been on a tremendously poor run of form.
Maybe the Champions League will free up those players, but this is a squad that looks short of belief and Claudio Ranieri is struggling to find the answers. Sevilla are also a team with a lot of European experience and have won 6 of their last 8 European ties with only the likes of Athletic Bilbao and Juventus escaping with a result in that time.
Leicester City are clearly not of that level and the focus for all at the club has to be the Premier League. I don't think Ranieri plays a weakened side here, but his first eleven are not exactly inspiring much confidence in their play and I think Sevilla will win this one by a couple of goals and move into a commanding position for the Second Leg.
Last week we saw three of the four Champions League First Legs end with the home team winning by at least two goals and I will look for Sevilla to become the latest to reach that mark.
Derby County v Burton Albion Pick: I have been burnt backing Derby County to win their last two home games and that is very disappointing when you think they scored six times in those games. Not many teams will score at least three goals in back to back home games and win neither, but that is where Derby County find themselves having begun to leak more goals at home.
They have conceded at least twice in their last 4 games here in all competitions and Burton Albion have to be encouraged having seen the likes of Bristol City and Cardiff City score at least three goals as the last two visitors to The iPro Stadium.
Burton Albion have only failed to score in 1 of their last 7 away from home in the League and this feels like another match in which both teams can play their part which has become a regular occurrence in Derby County recent home games. You would still think Derby County will have too much going forward considering Burton Albion have not had a clean sheet in their last 10 away League games and conceded at least twice in 6 of those.
It's hard to trust Derby County after they have let me down so consistently in their last two games, but I think they will probably win this one. However I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out as I can see Burton Albion playing their part in the outcome of this one too and that looks a decent price at odds against.
Huddersfield Town v Reading Pick: There were two angles on this fixture that I wanted to go and had to decide which of those is the more appealing- the first was backing Huddersfield Town to continue a strong run at home and win this game, while the other was backing at least three goals to be shared out at what looks a very big price.
I have decided to go with the latter of those options because I do think Reading are playing well enough away from home to at least score here and Huddersfield Town are still more than capable of scoring the goals to win the match.
Reading might have the edge having had a week to prepare for the game too which just put me off backing Huddersfield Town to win, but The Royals don't really do clean sheets away from home.
6 of the last 7 away League games Reading have played has seen their opponent score at least twice, but the side have also managed to score at least two goals in 4 of their last 5 which is why they have only lost 1 of their last 5 away games. 5 of the last 7 Huddersfield Town home games have also featured at least three goals shared out with one of the exceptions being a 1-1 draw.
I fully anticipate both teams can score in this one and the potential for what the three points can do should mean both David Wagner and Jaap Stam encourage their team to attack until the end of the game. The last three games at Huddersfield Town between these two clubs have also produced plenty of fireworks and I am expecting a very good game of football between them on Tuesday evening as both look to close on the automatic promotion spots.
Goals might be the order of the day at odds against and I will look for the three goal mark to be hit at least.
Sheffield Wednesday v Brentford Pick: No one should be underestimating a Brentford team who may have lost 3 away League games in a row, but one who led at both Preston North End and Reading before losing those games. That makes them potentially dangerous with all the pressure on Sheffield Wednesday to keep away from the teams after the Play Off spots, but the goals being conceded by Brentford makes it hard to believe in them.
That should be an area that Sheffield Wednesday can expose as they have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 League games and also in their last 3 at Hillsborough. Defensively The Owls remain one of the stronger teams in the Division and they also have won their last 2 home games against Brentford.
It does all point to Sheffield Wednesday improving their run of 6 wins in 7 League games at home and they look a decent price to do that. I was a little surprised they are shorter than Reading were to beat Brentford last week, but Sheffield Wednesday are one of the form teams in the Championship and they can win this one at odds on.
I do think Brentford can cause some problems, but ultimately Sheffield Wednesday have the edge in both final thirds and that should see them earn another important three points.
Bristol City v Fulham Pick: Both Bristol City and Fulham will be desperate for the three points available in this fixture which is part of their make up list in the League. Both know the importance of the three points they can earn for their respective goals and we could see a decent match at Ashton Gate on Wednesday.
Scoring goals hasn't been a problem for either team, but they have had issues when it comes to defending and keeping teams from scoring.
That could be in evidence on Wednesday as both Bristol City and Fulham prefer being on the front foot and this could provide yet another high-scoring game in the Championship during the week.
The last 4 overall between these teams, including both this season, and 5 of the last 6 at Ashton Gate between them have produced at least three goals and I would be surprised if that was not the case in this one. Bristol City are the team who will push forward at home which has seen them score plenty, but also concede at least twice in 4 straight before goal-shy Rotherham United pitched up in town.
None of the last 5 Fulham away games have featured at least three goals, but they can't afford to sit back and give away these valuable points and the teams can contribute for at least three goals on Wednesday. I would expect both teams to score at least once and from there is it is anyone's chance to win.
Fenerbahce v Krasnodar Pick: This tie is finely poised between Fenerbahce and Krasnodar and I do wonder if the lack of an away goal for the Turkish club will come back and haunt them. However Fenerbahce have played very well at home in European competition and winning 8 in a row here in either the Champions League or Europa League will give them the belief they can turn this tie around.
Fenerbahce have beaten the likes of Monaco, Manchester United and Feyenoord in those run of home wins and they also beat Lokomotiv Moscow from Russia at this stage last season. The passion from the home side should inspire the home players and I think they can get the better of Krasnodar on the night, but whether that will be enough to win the tie is another issue.
They are facing a team who haven't had a lot of competitive football in the last few months and Krasnodar have struggled on their travels. They have lost half of their last 6 away games in the Europa League and Krasnodar only scored a single goal in those losses.
I do think Fenerbahce will be the better team on the night and I think they are going to be a little too good for Krasnodar. I think they are the more likely team to progress, but I will keep it simple and just back Fenerbahce to win this one in the 90 minutes.
St-Etienne v Manchester United Pick: In all honesty this tie should already be over after Manchester United put a gloss on the First Leg with a couple of late goals to take a 3-0 lead to France. They created enough chances in the First Leg to expect Manchester United to score here, especially with Jose Mourinho admitting he will play a strong team, and an away goal will be too much for St-Etienne to overcome.
However you have to acknowledge the size of the game for St-Etienne for both the players and the fans and I fully expect them to want to exit the Europa League with some pride. If they score the first goal early on there could be some nerves in the Manchester United team that St-Etienne will look to take advantage of, but ultimately their goal has to be to try and win the game and go out with some pride.
St-Etienne have played well at home in recent weeks and they have shown at Old Trafford that they can create chances which will make them a threat in this Second Leg. They won't want to see their home winning run come to an end having won their last 3 here and St-Etienne have to feel they have a chance against a Manchester United team that have lost 6 of their last 8 away European games.
The problem for St-Etienne is always going to be whether they have enough to contain Manchester United's attack when they are pushing forward and I think the Second Leg could be as entertaining as the game at Old Trafford was. St-Etienne can play their part again and backing at least three goals to be shared out at odds against could be a big price at the end of this Second Leg.
Ajax v Legia Warsaw Pick: The goalless draw in Warsaw last week means Ajax and Legia Warsaw will both believe they have a chance to progress through to the Last 16. The home advantage is likely to be the difference maker for Ajax though and I do think the Dutch side can get past the team exiting the Champions League at the Group Stage.
Ajax have drawn a lot of their recent home games in Europe which is a concern for them, but they did win 3 in a row in the Group earlier this season. Those wins over Panathinaikos, Celta Vigo and Standard Liege will give Ajax the belief they can get the better of Legia Warsaw and they have also won 12 of their last 13 games here in all competitions.
It won't be easy when you consider Legia Warsaw have won 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions. However they were beaten in all 3 away games in their Champions League Group Stage and Legia Warsaw have lost 6 of their last 9 away games in European competition.
The first goal is going to be critical in this Second Leg, because it will force the other team to play much more expansively. If Ajax can go ahead, I think they will be able to pick off Legia Warsaw in the second half to get past a difficult test in the Last 32 and I will back them on the Asian Handicap.
Fiorentina v Borussia Monchengladbach Pick: The 0-1 lead from the First Leg might give Fiorentina the advantage in this Europa League Last 32 tie, but it is not one that guarantees progress to the next Round. Of course Fiorentina will be the favourites to progress, but they have lost half of their last 8 home Europa League games and a defeat here would likely send them out of the competition.
They are facing a Borussia Monchengladbach team who have lost back to back games over the last week, but one who have won 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions. Like Fiorentina, they are not as strong in European games though as they have lost 5 of their last 8 on their travels and they are under the pressure of having to score here.
Fiorentina have been playing well domestically with 5 wins in 7 games at home since their 2-3 loss to PAOK in the Group Stage of the Europa League. They have scored at least twice in 7 of their last 8 home games and I think Fiorentina can win this Second Leg to earn their place in the Last 16.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is a higher scoring game than the one in Germany last week, and I am anticipating goals to be scored too, but Fiorentina can just get ahead of Borussia Monchengladbach and win this Second Leg. I will also make a rare decision to also back at least three goals to be shared out at a decent price in this one as I am expecting a 2-1 scoreline in favour of the home team and both teams can produce an entertaining game.
Tottenham Hotspur v Gent Pick: I really wasn't sure that Tottenham Hotspur would be sending out as strong a starting eleven as they did in either of their last two games and so now it would be a weird decision to not try and win this Europa League Last 32 Second Leg. The 1-0 defeat in Belgium has put Tottenham Hotspur in an awkward position, but they will believe they have enough quality to turn things around at Wembley Stadium on Thursday.
The 2 losses here in the Champions League cost Tottenham Hotspur their spot in the Last 16 of that competition, but they did beat CSKA Moscow 3-1 here and I would think they can match that margin of win at the least. The big names should all be playing and Tottenham Hotspur recognise the need to keep two avenues into the Champions League open at this time.
For Gent a decision was made to rest some of the starters as the club are desperate to get into the Championship Round of the Belgian top flight. They might send out a more recognised team having headed over to London with a 1-0 lead, but the main ambition may be to defend in numbers and frustrate the Premier League club like they did in Belgium last week.
However Gent were hammered at Shakhtar Donetsk, the club most closely linked to the level of Tottenham Hotspur, when they met in the Group Stage of this competition. Gent have not played as well on their travels as they have at home in recent months and I am going to back the home team to win by a margin that sends them through to the Last 16 without the need for extra time.
Genk v Astra Pick: Neither Genk nor Astra are considered a real threat to win the Europa League, but the winner of this tie will move through to the Last 16 where they could be potentially paired with a really big name of European Football. The tie looks to be in the balance after a 2-2 draw in the First Leg, although obviously Genk have the advantage of being able to go through with a low scoring draw.
I am not anticipating that to be the case as Astra have shown some attacking potential away from home in the Europa League this season. They are also a team that can capitulate when pressing too far forward, but there is no choice for Astra as they need to either win 0-1 or score at least twice to get anything out of this tie.
That should mean Genk have opportunities on the counter attack, even though they have lost some big players in January, and we should seen an open contest as long as Astra still have a chance. If Genk do move into a 2-0 lead it is a game that could potentially fizzle out if the away side have just lost a bit of belief in what they are doing, but most other scorelines should see Astra really give this a go.
4 of 5 Astra away games in Europe this season have ended with at least three goals shared out and I will look for this to be another one.
MY PICKS: Bayer Leverkusen-Atletico Madrid Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.88 Betfair (1 Unit)
Manchester City-Monaco Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Juventus @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sevilla - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Derby County-Burton Albion Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Reading Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sheffield Wednesday @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bristol City-Fulham Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fenerbahce @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
St-Etienne-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ajax - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.07 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fiorentina @ 2.50 Stan James (2 Units)
Fiorentina-Borussia Monchengladbach Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet365 (2 Units)
Genk-Astra Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
February Update: 20-31, - 11.86 Units (98 Units Staked, - 12.10% Yield)
January Final: 32-47-1, - 30.88 Units (164 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)
November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)January Final: 32-47-1, - 30.88 Units (164 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)
Season 2016/17: 212-232-9, - 28.11 Units (872 Units Staked, - 3.22% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Tennis Picks 2017 (February 21st)
I have to say I was really frustrated with the tennis picks on Monday as I missed one thanks to a retirement when in a strong position and then Diego Sebastian Schwartzman only secures 5 break points from 21 opportunities and somehow didn't cover in a match he dominated against Renzo Olivo.
The picks in Dubai were also hit with a couple of unfortunate moments and I have to say Monday was a really annoyingly disappointing day.
There are five tournaments being played this week and that means Tuesday is an incredibly busy day with the majority of those getting through their First Round matches and Dubai having their whole Second Round played in the same day.
Hopefully there will be better fortune behind the picks on Tuesday after the frustration of Monday.
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 games v Ekaterina Makarova: This is a very good Second Round match to open the play on Tuesday in Dubai and Dominika Cibulkova is hoping for a better tournament than she had last week in Doha when she did reach the Semi Final in a rain affected tournament. This won't be an easy match for Cibulkova who meets the player who beat her at the Australian Open as Ekaterina Makarova came through her First Round match to set up this match.
That loss in the Australian Open was a really disappointing one for Cibulkova considering the injury Makarova had been carrying and I am not sure the latter is at 100% for this one. An early loss in St Petersburg has been followed by three wins for Makarova which will have given her some belief, but Cibulkova is considerably better than any player she has played in those wins.
The problem in backing Cibulkova is clearly her own serve can be vulnerable and that has led to her dropping sets as she tries to back up the serve on the ground. It is a pressure on any player to have to do that over and over and I also think Cibulkova has been a little under the standards she usually sets for herself.
It is balanced out by the fact that Makarova has not exactly been in very good form and has not really produced her best tennis in either Doha or Dubai. She does have an awkward serve to deal with, but I think Cibulkova can have a little more success than she did in the Australian Open and I like her to win this match 6-4, 4-6, 6-3.
Ana Konjuh - 2.5 games v Samantha Stosur: Samantha Stosur only gave up six games in her First Round win in Dubai, but Ana Konjuh surpassed that by only giving up one game to a talented player in Shuai Zhang. That was an incredible performance from the young Croatian and I am going to back her to back that up with another solid win over this veteran.
The Stosur performances over the last couple of weeks has seen her snap a long run of losing matches and she might have had some confidence restored. However Stosur is going to need to serve at something like her best levels because I am not sure she is going to get a of joy attacking the Konjuh serve in this one.
It is the Konjuh serve that builds the confidence for the rest of her game and she is playing a returner in Stosur who is not at the top of the WTA in that regards. That should mean Konjuh is getting plenty of short balls and being able to dominate the rallies and I think that pays off with an impressive win.
Konjuh is only 19 years old and so it is no surprise she can have some ups and downs within a match as she perhaps still struggles to cope with the mental side of the game. However I actually think she may be the superior player by some distance at this stage of the careers of these players and I think Konjuh will have the majority of break points against Stosur and can cover this number.
Kristina Mladenovic + 4.5 games v Kristina Pliskova: Last week was further proof that Karolina Pliskova has not got into a position where she believes she can win any tournament she enters. Another title in Doha has added to that but backing it up in Dubai is a big ask for the World Number 3.
That isn't just because playing as much tennis as Pliskova has over the last ten days is tough for most players, but Pliskova is also facing Kristina Mladenovic in her first match in Dubai. I have been very critical of Mladenovic in the past because I have felt she has massively underachieved as a Singles player and I even doubted she would really 'get it' to make it to the very top of the women's game.
However I might be eating my words of late having seen Mladenovic win the title in St Petersburg with some very impressive performances along the way. She was surprisingly beaten by Timea Bacsinszky in the Fed Cup since then, but Mladenovic made easy work of Katerina Siniakova in the First Round thanks to a pretty big serve of her own.
Both players in this one will feel their serve is going to be key, so Mladenovic can't afford to throw in as many Double Faults as she did on Monday. She was still a fairly comfortable winner and the three previous matches with Pliskova have been very competitive with this one having the makings of another.
Pliskova is rightly the favourite, but I think Mladenovic can make a match out of this one and I will take the games with the underdog.
Alison Riske - 2.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: It was Alison Riske who came through the all-American clash with Coco Vandeweghe in the First Round as the underdog, but I think this time she can get the better of Anastasija Sevastova as the favourite in the Second Round.
Sevastova had a very good win in the First Round too and I think this is going to be a very good match although I do think Riske has a few edges that can help her through.
2017 has been a solid season for Riske to this point as she finished as Runner Up in Shenzhen, the Third Round in the Australian Open and has helped the United States win their Fed Cup tie with Germany. The hard courts remain her favourite surface as Riske has a fairly decent serve and backs that up with heavy and consistent groundstrokes which I feel will give her the advantage over Sevastova.
The end of 2016 and start to 2017 has been more difficult for Sevastova and I do think she is perhaps lacking a bit of confidence which can be huge when it comes to the big points. She has a decent game herself, but Riske might just have a little too much off the ground and I do like her finding a way to get through this match.
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Mona Barthel: She isn't the World Number 1 after failing to defend her title at the Australian Open and 2017 has proven to be a tough season so far for Angelique Kerber. An early loss in Doha to Daria Kasatkina for the second time this season was a blow for Kerber and she will be looking to have a really strong week in Dubai to get this season started.
This is a tough match to open against Mona Barthel who played really well at the Australian Open before finding Venus Williams a little too strong. It was a long tournament for Barthel having come through the Qualifiers to get into the main draw at the first Grand Slam of the season, but that tournament looks an outlier compared with the majority of her performances over the last twelve months.
There is some power behind the Barthel groundstrokes which will give Kerber some problems, while she will be able to attack the Kerber serve which has had issues all season. However I also think Kerber's defensive skills can extract mistakes from Barthel and I think ultimately the higher Ranked German can get the better of her compatriot in this evening match.
Kerber is only 4-4 so far in 2017 which is not what was expected of a player who reached three Grand Slam Finals last season and won two Grand Slam titles. She has covered this number in 3 of her 4 wins though and I will look for Kerber to do that in the Second Round here and try and build some momentum through the draw.
Andrey Rublev - 1.5 games v Illya Marchenko: There is so much to like about the potential Andrey Rublev has, but it is up to him to start producing the consistent performances to move up the World Rankings. His best recent performances have come in the Challenger events that Rublev has participated in, but the two wins in the Qualifiers has to give the Russian some confidence going into the First Round in Marseille.
It will certainly be more than can be said for Illya Marchenko who has lost 14 of his last 18 matches and that includes at the Challenger level. While there are times Marchenko looks very good, he can't maintain those levels and that has seen his opponents break him down.
Some of those losses have come against players who are far less talented than Rublev and I think the latter is someone who will believe he can overpower Marchenko. He has to be careful though as the latter will use all of his veteran know how to try and frustrate Rublev, but I can't help but think Rublev will be too good on the day.
I won't be surprised to see this one go into a third set, but Rublev might just believe in himself a little more at that point and he can come through with a 6-4, 6-7, 7-5 win.
Paul-Henri Mathieu + 2.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: I am not going to say much about this match except I cannot understand why Aljaz Bedene has been set as the favourite to beat Paul-Henri Mathieu.
I understand that Mathieu is not the player he once was and that he is on the downward portion of his career, but Bedene has not exactly been winning loads of matches. Bedene was beaten as a big favourite in the First Round at the Australian Open and his return game on the hard courts has a lot of room for improvement which will give Mathieu a chance to win this match outright.
The Frenchman will be the one receiving plenty of vocal support from the crowd and I think he will be able to do enough to win a set which will give him a chance of covering this number.
This might not be a lot of games for Mathieu, but he is good enough even at this stage of his career to make them count and I just have to back him when I still believe he should be the favourite to win the match.
Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 games v Donald Young: Over the last week, Donald Young must have become accustomed to playing some of the biggest men, and serves, on the ATP Tour. Last week he beat both Reilly Opelka and John Isner in his run to the Semi Final in Memphis, and Young has been drawn to play Ivo Karlovic in the First Round in Delray Beach on Tuesday.
To be fair, Young rode his luck hugely against Isner to snap his losing run to him, but he will likely need to do the same if he is going to beat Karlovic for the first time. The Croatian has won all three previous matches between these players, including at the US Open last season, and the big man has won all seven sets they have competed against one another.
Two years ago Karlovic won the title in Delray Beach by beating Young in the Final so there is plenty of mental confidence he should have coming into the match. 2017 has not produced a great start for Karlovic but he is still producing plenty of big serves and I think he will be a little more effective at the big moments than Isner was last week in his loss to Young.
Coming forward makes it tough for opponents to continuously pass him and the mental pressure of having to stay with Karlovic could see Young produce a couple of loose service games which the Number 2 Seed can take advantage of. I don't worry too much about Karlovic producing a big serving day and I think that sees him come through in a tournament he has enjoyed in the past.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Ana Konjuh - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic + 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alison Riske - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Paul-Henri Mathieu + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-4, - 6.18 Units (10 Units Staked, - 61.8% Yield)
The picks in Dubai were also hit with a couple of unfortunate moments and I have to say Monday was a really annoyingly disappointing day.
There are five tournaments being played this week and that means Tuesday is an incredibly busy day with the majority of those getting through their First Round matches and Dubai having their whole Second Round played in the same day.
Hopefully there will be better fortune behind the picks on Tuesday after the frustration of Monday.
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 games v Ekaterina Makarova: This is a very good Second Round match to open the play on Tuesday in Dubai and Dominika Cibulkova is hoping for a better tournament than she had last week in Doha when she did reach the Semi Final in a rain affected tournament. This won't be an easy match for Cibulkova who meets the player who beat her at the Australian Open as Ekaterina Makarova came through her First Round match to set up this match.
That loss in the Australian Open was a really disappointing one for Cibulkova considering the injury Makarova had been carrying and I am not sure the latter is at 100% for this one. An early loss in St Petersburg has been followed by three wins for Makarova which will have given her some belief, but Cibulkova is considerably better than any player she has played in those wins.
The problem in backing Cibulkova is clearly her own serve can be vulnerable and that has led to her dropping sets as she tries to back up the serve on the ground. It is a pressure on any player to have to do that over and over and I also think Cibulkova has been a little under the standards she usually sets for herself.
It is balanced out by the fact that Makarova has not exactly been in very good form and has not really produced her best tennis in either Doha or Dubai. She does have an awkward serve to deal with, but I think Cibulkova can have a little more success than she did in the Australian Open and I like her to win this match 6-4, 4-6, 6-3.
Ana Konjuh - 2.5 games v Samantha Stosur: Samantha Stosur only gave up six games in her First Round win in Dubai, but Ana Konjuh surpassed that by only giving up one game to a talented player in Shuai Zhang. That was an incredible performance from the young Croatian and I am going to back her to back that up with another solid win over this veteran.
The Stosur performances over the last couple of weeks has seen her snap a long run of losing matches and she might have had some confidence restored. However Stosur is going to need to serve at something like her best levels because I am not sure she is going to get a of joy attacking the Konjuh serve in this one.
It is the Konjuh serve that builds the confidence for the rest of her game and she is playing a returner in Stosur who is not at the top of the WTA in that regards. That should mean Konjuh is getting plenty of short balls and being able to dominate the rallies and I think that pays off with an impressive win.
Konjuh is only 19 years old and so it is no surprise she can have some ups and downs within a match as she perhaps still struggles to cope with the mental side of the game. However I actually think she may be the superior player by some distance at this stage of the careers of these players and I think Konjuh will have the majority of break points against Stosur and can cover this number.
Kristina Mladenovic + 4.5 games v Kristina Pliskova: Last week was further proof that Karolina Pliskova has not got into a position where she believes she can win any tournament she enters. Another title in Doha has added to that but backing it up in Dubai is a big ask for the World Number 3.
That isn't just because playing as much tennis as Pliskova has over the last ten days is tough for most players, but Pliskova is also facing Kristina Mladenovic in her first match in Dubai. I have been very critical of Mladenovic in the past because I have felt she has massively underachieved as a Singles player and I even doubted she would really 'get it' to make it to the very top of the women's game.
However I might be eating my words of late having seen Mladenovic win the title in St Petersburg with some very impressive performances along the way. She was surprisingly beaten by Timea Bacsinszky in the Fed Cup since then, but Mladenovic made easy work of Katerina Siniakova in the First Round thanks to a pretty big serve of her own.
Both players in this one will feel their serve is going to be key, so Mladenovic can't afford to throw in as many Double Faults as she did on Monday. She was still a fairly comfortable winner and the three previous matches with Pliskova have been very competitive with this one having the makings of another.
Pliskova is rightly the favourite, but I think Mladenovic can make a match out of this one and I will take the games with the underdog.
Alison Riske - 2.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: It was Alison Riske who came through the all-American clash with Coco Vandeweghe in the First Round as the underdog, but I think this time she can get the better of Anastasija Sevastova as the favourite in the Second Round.
Sevastova had a very good win in the First Round too and I think this is going to be a very good match although I do think Riske has a few edges that can help her through.
2017 has been a solid season for Riske to this point as she finished as Runner Up in Shenzhen, the Third Round in the Australian Open and has helped the United States win their Fed Cup tie with Germany. The hard courts remain her favourite surface as Riske has a fairly decent serve and backs that up with heavy and consistent groundstrokes which I feel will give her the advantage over Sevastova.
The end of 2016 and start to 2017 has been more difficult for Sevastova and I do think she is perhaps lacking a bit of confidence which can be huge when it comes to the big points. She has a decent game herself, but Riske might just have a little too much off the ground and I do like her finding a way to get through this match.
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Mona Barthel: She isn't the World Number 1 after failing to defend her title at the Australian Open and 2017 has proven to be a tough season so far for Angelique Kerber. An early loss in Doha to Daria Kasatkina for the second time this season was a blow for Kerber and she will be looking to have a really strong week in Dubai to get this season started.
This is a tough match to open against Mona Barthel who played really well at the Australian Open before finding Venus Williams a little too strong. It was a long tournament for Barthel having come through the Qualifiers to get into the main draw at the first Grand Slam of the season, but that tournament looks an outlier compared with the majority of her performances over the last twelve months.
There is some power behind the Barthel groundstrokes which will give Kerber some problems, while she will be able to attack the Kerber serve which has had issues all season. However I also think Kerber's defensive skills can extract mistakes from Barthel and I think ultimately the higher Ranked German can get the better of her compatriot in this evening match.
Kerber is only 4-4 so far in 2017 which is not what was expected of a player who reached three Grand Slam Finals last season and won two Grand Slam titles. She has covered this number in 3 of her 4 wins though and I will look for Kerber to do that in the Second Round here and try and build some momentum through the draw.
Andrey Rublev - 1.5 games v Illya Marchenko: There is so much to like about the potential Andrey Rublev has, but it is up to him to start producing the consistent performances to move up the World Rankings. His best recent performances have come in the Challenger events that Rublev has participated in, but the two wins in the Qualifiers has to give the Russian some confidence going into the First Round in Marseille.
It will certainly be more than can be said for Illya Marchenko who has lost 14 of his last 18 matches and that includes at the Challenger level. While there are times Marchenko looks very good, he can't maintain those levels and that has seen his opponents break him down.
Some of those losses have come against players who are far less talented than Rublev and I think the latter is someone who will believe he can overpower Marchenko. He has to be careful though as the latter will use all of his veteran know how to try and frustrate Rublev, but I can't help but think Rublev will be too good on the day.
I won't be surprised to see this one go into a third set, but Rublev might just believe in himself a little more at that point and he can come through with a 6-4, 6-7, 7-5 win.
Paul-Henri Mathieu + 2.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: I am not going to say much about this match except I cannot understand why Aljaz Bedene has been set as the favourite to beat Paul-Henri Mathieu.
I understand that Mathieu is not the player he once was and that he is on the downward portion of his career, but Bedene has not exactly been winning loads of matches. Bedene was beaten as a big favourite in the First Round at the Australian Open and his return game on the hard courts has a lot of room for improvement which will give Mathieu a chance to win this match outright.
The Frenchman will be the one receiving plenty of vocal support from the crowd and I think he will be able to do enough to win a set which will give him a chance of covering this number.
This might not be a lot of games for Mathieu, but he is good enough even at this stage of his career to make them count and I just have to back him when I still believe he should be the favourite to win the match.
Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 games v Donald Young: Over the last week, Donald Young must have become accustomed to playing some of the biggest men, and serves, on the ATP Tour. Last week he beat both Reilly Opelka and John Isner in his run to the Semi Final in Memphis, and Young has been drawn to play Ivo Karlovic in the First Round in Delray Beach on Tuesday.
To be fair, Young rode his luck hugely against Isner to snap his losing run to him, but he will likely need to do the same if he is going to beat Karlovic for the first time. The Croatian has won all three previous matches between these players, including at the US Open last season, and the big man has won all seven sets they have competed against one another.
Two years ago Karlovic won the title in Delray Beach by beating Young in the Final so there is plenty of mental confidence he should have coming into the match. 2017 has not produced a great start for Karlovic but he is still producing plenty of big serves and I think he will be a little more effective at the big moments than Isner was last week in his loss to Young.
Coming forward makes it tough for opponents to continuously pass him and the mental pressure of having to stay with Karlovic could see Young produce a couple of loose service games which the Number 2 Seed can take advantage of. I don't worry too much about Karlovic producing a big serving day and I think that sees him come through in a tournament he has enjoyed in the past.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Ana Konjuh - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic + 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alison Riske - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Paul-Henri Mathieu + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-4, - 6.18 Units (10 Units Staked, - 61.8% Yield)
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