The Play Off participants will start taking shape in Week 16, but a number of teams will have to wait until Week 17 to confirm their own places in the post-season.
Week 15 was a good one for the picks with a 6-1 record meaning the last few weeks have been decent and got this season moving in the right direction.
I will head straight into the Week 16 NFL Picks in this thread for the games that will mainly taking place over the Christmas weekend.
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick: At this stage of the NFL season, I do tend to find the layers are factoring in 'must win' situations into the spreads. That can make things more difficult, but I am very comfortable in this opening pick from the games this weekend when the Atlanta Falcons head to the Carolina Panthers with the NFC South Division in their own grasp.
The Falcons currently lead the Division by a game from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and they are facing a Panthers team who have dominated this Division in recent seasons, but who won't be playing in the Play Offs this season. It has been a disappointing 2016 for Carolina who lost the Super Bowl in February and are just 6-8 for the season, but anyone who thinks this team has given up should be watching how the Carolina Panthers have been competing since their blow out defeat in Seattle.
The Atlanta Falcons have won three of their last four games which has seen them maintain control of the NFC South, but beating the LA Rams and San Francisco 49ers is not going to impress too many people. The Falcons can win the Division by winning this game and Tampa Bay losing in New Orleans, but winning this game is going to be far from straight forward with Matt Ryan likely having to do without Julio Jones this week.
Ryan brings in one of the most potent pass Offenses in the NFL so they should feel confident even if Jones is not in the line up at Wide Receiver. It would be a surprise if the Falcons can't move the chains through the air against a Panthers team who have given up some big numbers with their younger Secondary struggling. Ryan also has the benefit of throwing short passes to the likes of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman coming out of the backfield, but Carolina have been able to turn the ball over in their last couple of games and do get some impressive pass rush pressure up front.
Both Freeman and Coleman should be able to establish the run too, but it should be noted that the Panthers Defensive Line has been better at home and might be able to make some plays in the backfield in this one.
Overall you have to think the Falcons are going to move the chains, but I think Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers can do the same on the other side of the ball. Newton played very well in the win at Washington on Monday Night Football, but this is a short week for the Quarter Back who continues to get next to zero protection from the referees.
Jonathan Stewart's running on Monday Night was very good too and the Panthers Offensive Line should be able to establish the run in this one. That does make things easier for Newton as it helps his Line in blocking when he does drop back to throw the ball against an Atlanta team who have had players like Vic Beasley come alive in recent weeks.
Giving Newton time should mean he is able to expose a Secondary that hasn't been that good this season and is missing Desmond Trufant who is the best Corner Back on the roster. With Greg Olsen, Ted Ginn Jr and Kelvin Benjamin on the Carolina Receiving options, the Panthers should have a lot of success moving the chains in this one too and they can upset their Divisional rivals.
This has the feeling of a game that will see both teams moving up and down the field, but the key is going to be which of them is able to win the turnover battle. Either way, this looks a lot of points to be giving to a home underdog who aren't playing that badly and who would love to beat a Divisional rival and attempt to spoil their season.
The short week is a concern for the Carolina Panthers, but they have beaten Atlanta in three of the last four games here and covered in each one. Getting the full Field Goal worth of points could be huge and I will take the Panthers here.
Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears Pick: The Washington Redskins were in control of their own destiny when taking to the field on Monday Night Football, but they were pretty terrible in a home defeat to the Carolina Panthers. The Redskins have to know they need to win out the remaining two weeks to have a chance of getting back into the Play Offs and the layers are expecting the 'must win' nature of this game to entice people to back the road favourite.
That is the only reason I can give for the Chicago Bears to not only be a home underdog, but be given more than a Field Goal worth of points in this one. It is going to be much warmer than Week 15 at Soldier Field, but it still doesn't make sense for the Washington Redskins to be asked to cover just a single point fewer than the Green Bay Packers who have been in much better recent form than Washington.
It also fails to take into consideration how competitive the Chicago Bears have been and I do like the home underdog in this one.
Matt Barkley has really impressed in his time as the starting Quarter Back for the Chicago Bears and he looks to be in a position where he will be competing for the starting role next season. Jay Cutler is set to move on, but Chicago are in line for a high pick in the Draft which could be used on a Quarter Back to take over as the franchise one going forward, although a strong end to the season might see Barkley given the chance to lead the Bears into the 2017 season.
It has been good news for Barkley that he has had the support of Jordan Howard at Running Back who has found the holes and hit them with speed. Howard would have seen the runs that Jonathan Stewart had in the Monday Night Football game against Washington and has to feel he can establish himself in this one to ease the pressure on his Quarter Back.
That will also mean Barkley is given the time to make his throws as Washington's pass rush perhaps takes a step longer to get to him with the run game working. With Alshon Jefferey back in the Wide Receiver Number 1 role, Barkley can make plays against this Secondary which has struggled outside of Josh Norman and Chicago can make some big plays.
The more important factor for me to want to back the Chicago Bears is how well the Defensive unit have been playing. However there are some concerns that 'Fat' Rob Kelley could have a huge outing as the Bears Defensive Line has just had a few problems shutting down the run of late and were bamboozled by Ty Montgomery last week in the loss to the Packers.
If Washington can run the ball, it might give Kirk Cousins the chance to produce a bounce back game after struggling for the most part in Week 15. Jordan Reed's limitations have really hurt the passing game while Cousins could be under intense pressure from the Chicago pass rush if they are in third and long situations. That pressure has seen the Secondary play well and the Bears might have some opportunities to turn the ball over and give them a chance to stay within this number at the very least.
The Bears are playing their final home game of the season, but they were beaten by Washington here last December. That loss came by just three points and I will back the Bears to cover the spread this season with more than a Field Goal start.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Who would have thought the Minnesota Vikings would be on the verge of exiting the Play Off race in Week 16 of the season after beginning the 2016 campaign with a 5-0 record? Injuries on both sides of the ball have taken their toll on the team and a blow out loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15 means the Vikings will be out of the running with another loss in Week 16.
They could have done with facing the Green Bay Packers a few weeks ago when it looked like the Packers had lost their way, but a four game winning run now makes them favourites to win the NFC North.
Aaron Rodgers did say the team could go 6-0 and run the table and it looks like the banged up Quarter Back could be right. He is dealing with some injury issues, but Rodgers has been playing very well and is boosted by Ty Montgomery finally giving Green Bay a running game worth talking about. Montgomery is likely to have the majority of carries against the Minnesota Vikings Defensive Line which has been banged up and begun to give up more rushing yards than they would be comfortable with. This should mean Green Bay are in third and manageable for much of the afternoon, a position from which Rodgers should thrive.
Minnesota also miss Harrison Smith in this one which is a huge blow in the middle of the field. Aaron Rodgers showed he can exploit those kind of holes when the Seattle Seahawks pitched up without Earl Thomas and the Quarter Back should have a very nice outing as long as his Receivers can hold onto the ball. It is warmer at Lambeau Field than the conditions Green Bay faced in Chicago in Week 15 so I expect the Packers to move the chains with some consistency.
On the other side of the ball it looks like Adrian Peterson's return to the Minnesota Vikings has come too late. He didn't find a lot of room in the blow out loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15 and suffered a setback which may mean Peterson is not on the field for this vital game in Green Bay. While some teams have been able to exploit the Green Bay Defensive Line on the ground, Minnesota have not run the ball effectively all season and without Peterson it will be tough for the Vikings.
They might make some big plays on the ground, but mainly this is going to come down to Sam Bradford and not many would back him in a potential shoot out with Aaron Rodgers. Bradford had been put under pressure by his Offensive Line when dropping back to pass and that should be the case again in this one if Minnesota are in third and long at any time in the afternoon. While I do think Bradford can manage some drives, he has to be careful of the way Green Bay have turned the ball over especially if Bradford is being asked to push to stay with the Packers.
Those turnovers could be critical when it comes to the spread and I like the home favourite to cover in the form they have been in. The Packers are scoring plenty of points while the Defensive unit have been better during the four game winning run which should have success against the Minnesota Vikings who are used to playing indoors at this time of the season.
The Vikings are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven visits to Green Bay and I can't see their banged up Defensive unit keeping them in this game. I think the Packers win by at least a converted Touchdown in this one and move onto the 'winner takes all' game at the Detroit Lions in Week 17.
Indianapolis Colts @ Oakland Raiders Pick: The Oakland Raiders might have clinched their Play Off berth for the first time since 2002, but they have plenty left to play for. Winning the AFC West and finishing with a Wild Card is a huge difference maker in the Play Offs- doing the former means a likely Wild Card Round bye and at least one home Play Off game, the latter means playing in the Wild Card Round and likely needing three road wins to make the Super Bowl.
Getting some rest would be important for the Raiders, especially for Quarter Back Derek Carr, but the Raiders are only a game ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs and will lose the tiebreaker if they finish with the same record as the Chiefs. In Week 16 both Oakland and Kansas City are facing desperate opponents with the Indianapolis Colts heading to California off the back of an impressive win over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 15.
The Wild Card spots are beyond the Colts, but they are only a game behind in the race for the AFC South Division title and winning out may give them a chance to make the Play Offs although they do need plenty of help. Andrew Luck and company can't think beyond this game and I think getting the hook on the start on the handicap looks very appealing in backing the road underdog this week.
Luck has been under pressure to make the plays, but Frank Gore could have a big game in his return to the Bay area having previously starred for the San Francisco 49ers. Gore isn't playing behind a really strong Offensive Line that paves the ways for big yardage, but he can do enough to keep the Oakland Raiders Defensive Line honest and rip off some big gains from time to time to keep the pressure off the franchise Quarter Back.
Running the ball has helped the Indianapolis Offensive Line protect Andrew Luck, although they will be tested by some fierce pass rush pressure Oakland can generate. The Secondary have also been playing well in recent games, although Luck is clearly the best Quarter Back they have faced since facing Cam Newton in Week 12 who had a very big outing against them.
As long as Luck can avoid the Interceptions, Indianapolis can move the chains and have success in this one and give themselves a chance to win this game outright.
That might be more of a slight chance if Carr is still banged up at Quarter Back for the Oakland Raiders which has made it difficult for him to take the ball under Center. It has had a knock on effect on how well Oakland have been able to run the ball and the Colts Defensive Line has been playing well in recent games which suggests they can put the pressure on the Quarter Back to make the plays to beat them.
The injured finger on the throwing hand of Derek Carr has most definitely had an impact on the passing game in recent games which is a concern going against an improving Colts Secondary. The Colts can get some pressure up front, although Carr is still able to get the ball out of his hand quickly, but the injury has had an impact on the accuracy. Michael Crabtree has been banged up which means teams can focus on taking away Amari Cooper and it looks like it might be a tough outing for the Oakland Raiders on the Offensive side of the ball.
That coupled with Indianapolis' chances to move the chains makes the road underdog appealing getting more than the Field Goal start in this one. Andrew Luck is capable of throwing the Colts into contention and anything more than a Field Goal worth of points would have appealed to me in this one. I will take the points with this road underdog and look for them to keep things close at the very least.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans Pick: The Houston Texans are still in command of the AFC South going into the final two games of the 2016 regular season and all despite persisting with the worst starting Quarter Back in the NFL in Brock Osweiler. Well Bill O'Brien had enough as the Texans struggled in the home game with the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 15 and yanked Osweiler onto the bench and brought in Tom Savage as the new Quarter Back.
Savage played well enough to be given the starting role the rest of the season and Osweiler looks an incredible mistake made by the Texans. However I do think this move has come at the right time for the Texans and I think they will respond by producing a big game in Week 16 when hosting the Cincinnati Bengals who are out of contention in the Play Offs.
I really thought the Bengals would be a significant underdog in this one so getting the points with the home team looks very appealing to me. This is not a great spot for the Bengals who lost a big home game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15 and finish off with a chance to ruin the Baltimore Ravens season next week in their final home game of a disappointing season.
With that in mind, I am not sure how much Cincinnati will get themselves up for this game even if the Houston Texans have beaten them twice in the Play Offs in recent memory. The Texans have done that with worse Quarter Backs than Tom Savage and I can see the entire team rallying around their new leader and producing a big performance in the late game on Christmas Eve.
A bigger problem for Houston than the Quarter Back position might be the injury to Lamar Miller which could see the Running Back miss out in Week 16. His absence would be a blow because the Texans would have found a way to get Miller established and thus open up the passing lanes for Savage at Quarter Back and keep the Bengals off balance. Alfred Blue has deputised for Arian Foster in the past and isn't a bad replacement, but Miller's absence would still be felt.
However Savage has also shown he is more willing to throw further down the field than Osweiler was and that should mean a reawakening for DeAndre Hopkins at Wide Receiver. Savage has to be aware that the Bengals Secondary have played a little better in recent games and have been capable of turning the ball over, but I do think the Quarter Back can have a solid outing with his Offensive Line opening up some running lanes too.
In what has been a tough season for the Bengals, there are little signs they are going to be feeling sorry for themselves and instead will produce a big effort in their remaining games. This does look a bad schedule spot for them though and it is up to Andy Dalton to try and help them compete. It is a big test for Dalton who might be coming into the game without Jeremy Hill at Running Back, although the return of AJ Green could not come fast enough.
The Bengals have struggled to run the ball anyway this season and now they are down to a third string Running Back with Giovani Bernard and Hill likely to be absent. Rex Burkhead could be a decent Back at this level and will get the majority of the carries, but the Houston Defensive Line will feel they can lock him down and force Dalton to take to the air to beat them.
Even that will be a test for Dalton despite the return of Green at Wide Receiver. While the Texans haven't been able to get a lot of pressure on the Quarter Back, they have done enough to give their Secondary a chance to lock down and Houston simply haven't given up a lot of yards through the air over the course of the season. I do think Dalton can have some success with the Receivers he has, but the Texans will feel they can put the Offense in a strong position to win this game and I do tend to lean towards that unit winning this battle on this side of the ball.
Turnovers are hard to judge and has to be the biggest concern for an inexperienced Quarter Back in Tom Savage, although it isn't as if Brock Osweiler was producing clean games. His threat to throw down the field should open things up for the Offense and I do think the Texans are facing Cincinnati at the right time and can win this game. The players will know they are not being believed in as the home underdog and I think they can produce a big effort and I will take the point on offer.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: There is still a lingering hope for the Denver Broncos that they can make the Play Offs in the defence of their Super Bowl crown, but they have to win out and get help. That is surprising when you think the Broncos can reach 10-6 with two wins, but that has been the strength of the AFC this season.
The Broncos will recognise that in their own Division where they are third in the standings behind the Oakland Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs who they visit on Christmas Day. The Chiefs can still win the AFC West if they can finish with the same record as the Raiders, but they do trail by one game although still in a very strong position to at least finish with a Wild Card spot.
Winning the Division is obviously still the target for the Chiefs so the home loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 15 looks like one that will hurt. Now they need to win out and hope Oakland lose at least one more time, but the Chiefs can't overlook the threat the Denver Broncos bring into this game despite the fact they have lost three of their last four games.
The problem the Broncos have faced all season is being able to run the ball effectively which is the key to Gary Kubiak's Offensive game plan. The injury to CJ Anderson hurt, but Devontae Booker hasn't been good enough and so Justin Forsett has been brought in. Forsett will have the majority of the carries in this one and there is an opportunity for him to get the run established considering some of the problems Kansas City have had in stopping the run, but it will be tough unless Trevor Siemian gives them a reason to drop more men into coverage.
Siemian hasn't been helped by an Offensive Line that has had some real difficulties in protection and who were eaten up by Justin Houston in the first game a few weeks ago. It will be a tougher night to throw with the conditions as they are set to be anyway, but Siemian has at least been smart enough to know that punting the ball isn't a loss with the Defense on his side and that has meant avoiding the big turnovers which can be costly.
He has some top Receivers that can make plays if the conditions allow for better throwing conditions in the second half though and Siemian had success when these teams met earlier in the season in a game which Denver should really have won.
Running the ball looks like it is going to be very important in the conditions and Kansas City will feel they can do that even against this stout Denver Defensive Line. There have been some improvements in the yard per carries, but the Broncos have given up 156 yards per game on the ground over their last three games. The Chiefs will look to pound the ball to keep the Offense in third and manageable spots throughout this game and they won't go too far from the game plan in the conditions.
Spencer Ware will be the bigger name in the contest than Alex Smith at Quarter Back, and it will be tough for Smith to get anything done consistently if Ware is not running the ball. The Denver Defensive unit have been brilliant in the last few weeks and the Secondary have been taking away the ball from the opponents while scoring Touchdowns to help the Offensive unit out. That came to a head last week when there was an argument that almost led to physical repercussions between the Defense and Offense after the loss to the New England Patriots which has put the Broncos on the brink of seeing their season come to an end.
Smith is clever enough with the ball to avoid the Interceptions, but he will be challenged in these conditions as much as Siemian will. It is going to be the turnovers that decide the game, but I do think we will see another close game between these Divisional rivals. The Broncos have won on their last four visits to Arrowhead Stadium and they moved the ball much better when these teams met earlier in the season, earning more than 190 total yards than the Chiefs.
The Special Teams play from the Kansas City Chiefs likely gives them the edge, but I would be surprised if this is a game settled by more than a Field Goal and I will take the road underdog with the points.
MY PICKS: Carolina Panthers + 3 Points @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Houston Texans + 1 Point @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
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Friday, 23 December 2016
Monday, 19 December 2016
NBA December Picks 2016 (December 19-25)
This is a big week in the NBA which leads up to Christmas Day where there are five games scheduled as the basketball takes centre stage in the United States. This year they do compete with a couple of NFL games on Sunday, even if the majority of the NFL games are played on Christmas Eve, but the NBA fans love Christmas Day and the games on primetime television.
The picks have been a mixed bag over the course of the month, but there is still a chance to get this month turned back around and produce a positive result.
Monday 19th December
Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers Pick: In an eighty-two game regular season and the majority of teams in the NBA earning a place in the Play Offs, a poor start can be overcome and that is what the Washington Wizards have to be telling themselves. The Wizards won a three game home stand to make it five wins in their last six games as they close back in on 0.500, but they have to show they can take that form on the road if they are going to finish in the top eight in the Eastern Conference.
This is a test for them against the inconsistent Indiana Pacers who haven't won or lost more than two games in a row to get to their 14-14 record. The Pacers won their last game so perhaps are set for a positive moment, but they are making a quick stop at home before heading on the road to take on the New York Knicks on Tuesday.
The Pacers have been stronger Defensively at home which has helped them to a 10-4 record here, but they are just 3-3 against the spread when hosting a team with a losing record. The Defense will be tested by the Washington Wizards who have shot 50% from the field in their last five games, although it has to be noted that the Wizards have not been very good on the other side of the court.
Washington have a good chance of continuing the hot shooting from the three point range though and the key to this game is going to be which of these teams is able to win the rebounding battle. Both have struggled in that regards in recent games, but I do feel this is going to be a close game which makes the points very appealing on the road team.
The Wizards are 6-0 against the spread in their last six visits to Indiana and I will take the points and look for them to keep it close here on their recent form.
Atlanta Hawks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The Atlanta Hawks have won three of their last five games which has seen them get back towards 0.500, but there is no disguising how disappointing the last month has been for them. There are still plenty of questions for the Hawks to answer as they look to be transitioning into a new look roster, but at least they have started winning some games of late.
Now they head to the Oklahoma City Thunder who beat the Atlanta Hawks on the road earlier in the month and who have been much stronger at home than on the road. Russell Westbrook doesn't want to be inundated with compliments for his own play and the triple-doubles he has been racking up for fun, especially if it doesn't mean the Oklahoma City Thunder are winning games.
The Thunder have won five of the last six home games and they have gone 4-1-1 against the spread in that time. They can improve on that against the Atlanta Hawks who have allowed teams to shoot at 50% from the field in their last five games and given up 112 points per game in that time.
This isn't the old Oklahoma City Thunder team who had the shooting power of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined, but they have averaged 109 points per game at home which is significantly better than on the road and I think that makes a big difference in this one.
You can't underestimate Atlanta because they have been much better Offensively of late and they have the three point shooters that can punish the Thunder whose Defense from that range has been a little erratic. However their shooting on the road hasn't been quite as good as at home and I think the Thunder can improve their 20-7 record against the spread from the last twenty-seven games against Atlanta by covering the spread in this one.
Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets Pick: They might still have the joint worst record in the NBA, but the Dallas Mavericks have won half of their last six games and look to have been a little more competitive in that time. No one is really going to imagine the Mavericks making it back into the Western Conference Play Off picture, but they might be a tougher proposition heading towards the trade deadline when Dallas will be expected to be involved.
This is a big test for the Dallas Mavericks when they head to the Denver Nuggets who have won two games in a row with really strong Offensive showings. Both of those games saw the Nuggets score at least 127 points and Denver should have a significant edge on the rebounding statistics to give them a chance to pull away for a win in this one.
However I think the Dallas Mavericks may surprise as it could be easy for the Nuggets to overlook them with a game at the LA Clippers to be played tomorrow. It also has to be said that Dallas have been shooting pretty well from the three point range which has been a problem for the Nuggets to defend while Denver have struggled overall on the Defensive side of the court having allowed 110 points per game over their last five games at 48% from the field.
The Mavericks have been looking after the ball better in recent games which has given them a chance to stay with teams and they should have opportunities in this one.
Dallas have a strong 8-3 record against the spread in their last eleven visits to Denver and they are 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven overall including a blow out win over them last week. They are getting a lot of points despite the big wins the Nuggets have had in their last two home games, and I think Dallas can perhaps take advantage of an unfocused opponent to keep this one close.
Tuesday 20th December
I seriously have no idea how all three picks didn't come back as winners on Monday when all had been in a position to do that. The Dallas Mavericks loss by a couple of points particularly hurt when they had been leading by almost twenty points in the Second Quarter which meant a twenty-nine point lead on the spread.
Hopefully Tuesday will prove to be a much better day.
San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets Pick: The San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets are amongst the very best teams in the NBA, let alone the Western Conference, and every game between these in-State rivals will be very important regardless of the situation.
It is the Spurs who have dominated the head to head in recent seasons, but the Rockets have split the first two games of the 2017 season. However both teams have won on the road at the other and Houston have lost three of their last four home games against San Antonio which is going to be some mental block to overcome.
Both teams are playing really good basketball at the moment, although there is no hotter team than the Rockets and I think the underdog can make the points they are being given count. The teams do match up well and both have shown they have been performing well Defensively while doing enough Offensively to create opportunities for a strong roster.
The key may be the improvements Houston have made on the boards and getting second chance opportunities while preventing the Spurs doing the same could be all-important in this game. The Rockets are well rested and this has to be a game they are completely focused on to show they are more than an also-ran in the Western Conference and I think they are going to keep this very close.
It isn't a lot of points being given to the underdog, but I will take them with the Houston Rockets and look for them to give the San Antonio Spurs all they can handle.
Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors Pick: A shorthanded Utah Jazz team took on the Golden State Warriors at home a couple of weeks ago and looked to be on the road to a huge blow out at the end of the First Half. They fought back to give the score a respectable look, but a fuller roster heads to The Oracle Arena on Tuesday.
They are getting as many points as the shorthanded team got at home when they head to Golden State although backing against the Warriors is a tough proposition despite them being 6-7 against the spread here this season. They are 1-4 against the spread when facing a team with a winning record and that is because the Warriors are always being asked to cover big numbers at home and I do think the Utah Jazz can stay within the number in this one.
Gordon Hayward is a huge boost for Utah having missed the game a couple of weeks ago and this is a Jazz team that prides themselves on being very strong on the Defensive side of the court. That will be tested to the full by Golden State and the Offensive players they have, but Utah will also have some joy on the other side of the court which suggests this will be closer than the layers expect.
Winning the battle on the boards is going to be huge for the Jazz if they are going to give themselves a chance in this one. They have the size with players like Rudy Gobert in the starting line up to do that, but the Warriors have been sneakily better on the boards than you may initially imagine.
That is going to be so important in this game and Golden State might be preparing for their big three game road trip which ends with a first game against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Christmas Day. I will be looking for Utah to do enough on the boards to give themselves a real chance of making this number of points work for them.
Wednesday 21st December
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: The Atlanta Hawks have been really inconsistent over the last couple of weeks which has seen them beat some big teams but then lose to teams they would be expected to beat. They are the favourites returning home to face the Minnesota Timberwolves, but I think the road team are being given too many points in this one.
There have been some improvements from the way Minnesota started this season to the way they have been playing in recent games. However there is no doubt that the Timberwolves have work to do to really fulfil the potential they have on the roster, but the young players have been producing some of their best basketball over the last week.
The Timberwolves have won two of their last three games and they came close to knocking off the Houston Rockets before a narrow loss in overtime in that time. I do expect Minnesota to exploit the spaces that Atlanta have left Defensively over the last couple of weeks and another game without Dwight Howard will make things difficult for them.
Both teams have been strong on the boards, but the one concern in backing Minnesota is their poor Defense from the three point range which is an area that Atlanta can have success. However the Timberwolves have a 4-1 record against the spread in the last five games in the series between these teams and I do think this is too many points for the home team to cover.
Atlanta just seem to be giving up too many points at the moment and so I will take the points and back the road underdog.
Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls Pick: The 2016/17 season has begun with the Washington Wizards failing to get over the hump in the Fourth Quarter in a number of games which has left them with a losing record. The Wizards will feel anything but a place in the Eastern Conference Play Offs would be a disappointing season and they suffered another tough loss at the Indiana Pacers a couple of days ago.
They are getting the points again when they head to the Chicago Bulls and I think the road underdog can be backed to keep this one within the number. The Bulls are coming in off a brutal beat down of the Detroit Pistons, but they had been struggling in the previous three games and the Wizards have enjoyed visiting this famous Arena where they have a 9-3 record against the spread in their last twelve visits.
The Wizards are playing well enough at the moment to keep this close with their Offense showing some spark in the last couple of weeks. They do need more from Bradley Beal and John Wall from the three point range where they have been struggling, but Chicago are not likely to get really hot from outside the arc themselves which gives Washington the chance to keep this one close.
I do think Chicago will likely have the edge on the boards which can be critical in these close games, but Washington have played well enough to challenge them all the way.
Chicago are 0-5 against the spread in their next game following a win and I think Washington can extend that sequence by making use of the points they are being given.
Thursday 22nd December
Orlando Magic @ New York Knicks Pick: There is no doubting that the New York Knicks have exceeded expectations to this point of the season and they have been especially good at home where they have compiled a 10-4 record. A battling display saw them come from a big deficit to beat the Indiana Pacers last time out and the Knicks have this one game to play before the big Christmas Day home game against the Boston Celtics.
They come into this game as a pretty solid favourite, but I think the Orlando Magic can make the points look too big by the end of this one. They do have a losing record against the spread this season, but those numbers are not helped by a really poor record as the favourite which isn't a surprise when you think of how inconsistent the Magic have been.
Orlando haven't played that well as a small underdog either and they are up against a Knicks team that have thrived as a favourite of six points or fewer this season. However I like the Magic to get the better of the number thanks to their shooting success in recent games going up against a Knicks team whose Defense has just had a few problems to overcome.
I do think the Magic have been looking after the ball pretty well of late and that can be a big difference maker in this one. It is also a game in which they will believe they can earn an edge on the boards where both teams have struggled and I think Orlando are catching the Knicks at the right time in their schedule.
The Magic were blown out by the Toronto Raptors earlier this week, but they have been involved in a number of competitive games other than that in recent games. Orlando don't have a good recent record at Madison Square Garden, but this is a Knicks team that does let a lot of their games go down to the wire because of their Defensive issues and I will take the points with the road underdog.
LA Lakers @ Miami Heat Pick: It wasn't meant to be as hard as it has been for the Miami Heat despite losing long time leader Dwyane Wade and there are some frustrations building for the remaining players. Not many would have picked the Heat to have fewer wins than the LA Lakers going into Christmas Day, but the fall for Miami has to be proven by the fact they have not been picked to play on that marquee date in the NBA calendar.
Another Overtime loss means the Heat have lost three in a row heading into this game and Hassan Whiteside has made it clear he expects to be a big part of the Offensive game plan down the stretch. The Center feels Miami got away from him in the loss to the Orlando Magic a couple of days ago, but the Heat have every chance of snapping their losing run against a Lakers team who have lost ten of their last eleven games.
The Lakers might be shorthanded for their visit to Miami and they have just had a few issues Defensively that can be exposed by the home team. A real issue for the Lakers to resolve is getting enough action on the boards but that is going to be a big challenge for them against this Miami team and I think that will give the home team enough of an edge in this one to win and cover this number.
It has to be noted that the LA Lakers are just 1-7 against the spread when playing with just a day of rest between games. Looking after the ball has been a better trait for Miami in recent games and they have the bench to match what the LA Lakers are able to do when the rosters are mixed about during the game. I think the Heat can do enough on the Defensive side of the court to make sure they get over this number and I will back the favourite in this one.
San Antonio Spurs @ LA Clippers Pick: The San Antonio Spurs needed a big comeback in the final five minutes to see off the Houston Rockets narrowly a couple of days ago and that improved the team to 15-1 on the road. I think they can be backed to beat the LA Clippers who are missing Blake Griffin until the New Year and will be needing a number of role players to cover his absence.
One of the reasons I like the San Antonio Spurs in this one is how well they are shooting from the field at the moment with the team averaging 51% from the field over their last five games. They have been incredibly efficient from the three point range and the Spurs can expose some of the problems the Clippers have had Defensively compared with earlier in the season.
San Antonio have been very strong on the rebounding stats too and I think that gives them a definite edge in this one. They are moving the ball very well to find the open shot and the Spurs have improved to 5-2 against the spread when playing a road game against a team with a winning record.
The Clippers have been a little better across the board at home, but there are still some problems on the Defensive side of the court that need to be resolved. With the Spurs currently rolling along as they have been, I am not sure the Clippers have the time to resolve their problems at this moment and I can see San Antonio coming through with a cover and a win.
Los Angeles have only kept one of their last eight opponents from scoring at least 100 points and I think that is an issue for them here as San Antonio make a few more plays in the Fourth Quarter to win this game.
Sunday 25th December
The NBA plays its annual Christmas Day selection of games in a back to back to back schedule through the day. We begin at Madison Square Garden at 12pm Eastern Time and end up at The Staples Center for 10:30pm Eastern Time start with three other games between those.
Usually this would be a spot kept solely for the NBA, but they will be competing with two big NFL games that have huge Play Off implications on Sunday and the ratings will be of interest for the League on Monday morning.
Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: Things may be opening up in New York City for the NBA Christmas Day schedule, but the biggest game of the day will head to the court in the second game of the day. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors met last Christmas and they have played the NBA Finals against one another for the last two seasons while being favourites to meet one another again at the end of the 2017 NBA season.
There are some obstacles for both to overcome in their respective Conferences, but it would take a brave person to pick the team who is capable of beating the Cavaliers or the Warriors over a seven game series prior to the NBA Finals.
A rivalry has definitely built up between these teams who want to finish with the best record and have home court advantage in the NBA Finals. They also put out some of the best players in the NBA on the court when the Cavaliers and Warriors meet, although LeBron James has downplayed the significance of this game with suggestions that Cleveland are treating it as any other regular season game.
James was amazing in the NBA Finals and the reason the Cavaliers recovered a 3-1 deficit to win that series, but he has been pointing out the importance of losing JR Smith for the coming months. While I agree Smith is a loss, the Cavaliers can deal with his absence if they can continue playing the Defense which helped them beat the Warriors in the NBA Finals.
Smith is not known for his strong Defensive play, while the rest of the Cleveland team have not been up to the level they set for themselves last June. That is going to be a problem against a Golden State team that have added Kevin Durant and been producing 49% from the field in their recent games. A bigger concern for the Cavaliers has to be the way they have played the three point shot in their recent games, an area that Golden State will look to exploit.
In fact it is the Golden State Warriors who have been showing their Defensive strength in their most recent games and they could give Cleveland some problems. Kyrie Irving is a bad match up for Stephen Curry from a Defensive point of view, but they could give Curry more help knowing Kevin Durant will give LeBron James trouble with his size, while Klay Thompson is a very strong Defender and may spend time on Irving.
Both teams have looked after the ball effectively and Cleveland do have a 4-1 record against the spread in the last five games against the Warriors. However the Cavaliers do have a losing record against the spread at home when facing a team with a winning record and I think Golden State can beat them on Christmas Day for a second season in a row. I will back the Warriors to win and cover in the biggest game on Christmas Day in the NBA.
Chicago Bulls @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The San Antonio Spurs might have a fairly different feel these days without Tim Duncan in the line up and players like Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili no longer the key ones for them. Gregg Popovich will still look to his veterans at times, but the San Antonio Spurs have been better than expected because of the improvement of other players on the roster, most notably Kahwi Leonard who has become a star in the NBA.
It showed how much things have changed for San Antonio that they were able to rest some of the older legs on Friday in a blow out win over the Portland Trail Blazers and only the Golden State Warriors have a better record in the Western Conference. There are still some questions that will be needed to be answered for the Spurs in April once we hit the Play Offs, but they are developing the right way.
They will be hosting the Chicago Bulls on Christmas Day as their visitors have perhaps regressed to a level that would be less surprising. The Bulls started the season very impressively, but they have a losing record going into Christmas Day as the veterans have perhaps not gelled as well as it seemed they had.
Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo have both won NBA Championship Rings and came to Chicago to help Jimmy Butler take the next step. While Butler has the numbers, both Wade and Rondo have been inconsistent and the Bulls don't have the depth to think they can challenge either Cleveland or Toronto in the Eastern Conference.
The Bulls have hit a wall when it comes to what they want to do from an Offensive point of view and they are not expected to get things going any easier when they face this solid San Antonio Defense. The three point shot has been a struggle for Chicago all season and that is another area where the Spurs have been solid enough to prevent teams lighting them up, which was highlighted last week when shutting down the Houston Rockets from that range.
Considering that is what Houston do as well as any team in the NBA, the Spurs success was even more impressive. They also don't anticipate to face the same difficulties in getting baskets when they have the ball in hand and San Antonio can punish the Bulls' issues Defensively that have been highlighted in recent games.
Even the strength of the Chicago team in attacking the boards might be nullified by the San Antonio Spurs who have put considerable stock into this Christmas Day game when you think they rested players in anticipation of it. The Spurs need to look after the ball a little better than they have in their most recent games, and they do have a poor 5-7 record against the spread at home.
The Spurs have not been a great favourite to back when asked to cover a lot of points like they are on Christmas Day, but they are 5-0 against the spread in their last five against a team with a losing record. I think they can do enough at both ends of the court to find a way to pull away from the Chicago Bulls in this one and I will back the Spurs to cover.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: There is no doubting the historically strong numbers Russell Westbrook is putting up this season and I fully expect he is going to have a huge game in the Christmas Day showdown with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Westbrook doesn't worry himself about the statistics, but it is clear he is trying to will the Oklahoma City Thunder to surpassing all expectations this season, the first without Kevin Durant.
One of the problems the Thunder have had is finding consistent Offensive support for Westbrook through the season and their 18-12 record says much about how well their Point Guard has been playing. They are very much expected to be in the Play Off mix thanks to the start made, but the Thunder look some way from being able to beat the top teams in the Western Conference, especially over a seven game series.
There is elements of a rebuild in Oklahoma City, but a clearer picture in Minnesota where the young Timberwolves are still trying to understand and execute what Tom Thibodeau wants his team to do. That is especially the case on the Defensive side of the court where Minnesota have been unable to really produce over the full 48 minutes and the Timberwolves will need to turn the key on their performances sooner rather than later if they are to make the Play Offs.
No one will doubt the exciting roster Minnesota have and their young stars have been able to show off on the Offensive side of the court. They should have their successes against a Thunders team that have allowed teams to shoot at 49% from the field in recent games although the Defensive disorganisation is going to be broken down by Westbrook and the Thunder too.
Both teams have players who can take over the rebounding, which suggests a close battle on the boards, while the Timberwolves might find a little more room for three point shooting which can be an important factor in this one. The Timberwolves will just need the bench players to stay with the Oklahoma City Thunder in this game and doing that will give them a chance of recording the upset on Christmas Day.
I do like the road underdog in this one, but my concern is how well Oklahoma City have played when hosting a team with a losing record. They are 7-2 against the spread in that spot and Minnesota have struggled in recent games against the Thunder. However a lot of those were with Kevin Durant in the home locker room and I do think the Minnesota Timberwolves are playing well enough to make these points count on the road.
LA Clippers @ LA Lakers Pick: These days it is the LA Clippers and not the LA Lakers who run Los Angeles, but there are still some doubts about the former and they won't be fully recognised in these parts unless they can win a NBA Championship. The Clippers haven't even made the Western Conference Finals, let alone win the NBA Finals, and a team with the third best record in the West are still one that won't be trusted unless they can win a lot of games in April, May and June.
It is still a transitional time for the LA Lakers whose promising start under Luke Walton has been forgotten in light of an 11-22 record. There are some good young pieces on the roster, but the Lakers are still a work in progress even if they are rewarded with a big appearance on Christmas Day yet again.
The Lakers were beaten by the Clippers on Christmas Day last year in the final game of the day and they will do well to avoid that fate again. It is a Clippers team missing Blake Griffin until the New Year, but Chris Paul is expected to return having missed the Friday night surprising loss to the Dallas Mavericks, a result that should have the players fired up to perform.
A strong Defensive start to the season has not been on show in recent games for the Clippers, but they will feel they can get what they want Offensively against this Lakers Defense. Protecting against the three point shot has been a particular problem for the Lakers and we all know that the Clippers will move the ball around and look for the open man to knock down some big shots from outside of the arc.
Rebounding shouldn't be a big concern for the Clippers in this one, while having their primary ball handling player back on the court in Chris Paul is key to restricting the turnovers that have hurt them of late. It also means the Clippers should match what the Lakers are able to produce from the bench with the likes of Raymond Felton and Jamal Crawford coming out in relief of the starters.
The Clippers haven't been that good against the spread when facing a team with a losing record this season, while they are 1-4 against the spread in the last five against the Lakers. However the Lakers haven't exactly thrived when playing the best teams in the NBA even with the points they have been getting and I think the Clippers will be able to cover a spread that was over double the size twelve months ago.
That is because of some improvement from the Lakers as well as Blake Griffin being absent and Chris Paul a little banged up, but I like the Clippers and I will back them to round out the day with a win and a cover.
MY PICKS: 19/12 Washington Wizards + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
19/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/12 Dallas Mavericks + 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
20/12 Houston Rockets + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
20/12 Utah Jazz + 12 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/12 Minnesota Timberwolves + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
21/12 Washington Wizards + 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
22/12 Orlando Magic + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
22/12 Miami Heat - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
22/12 San Antonio Spurs - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
25/12 Golden State Warriors - 2 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
25/12 San Antonio Spurs - 9 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
25/12 Minnesota Timberwolves + 5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/12 LA Clippers - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
December 19-25 Update: 5-9, - 4.41 Units
December 12-18 Final: 5-5, - 0.37 Units
December 5-11 Final: 5-6, - 1.41 Units
December 1-4 Final: 4-3, + 0.68 Units
December Update: 14-14, - 1.10 Units
November Final: 24-25-1, - 2.92 Units
October Final: 8-9, - 1.72 Units
Season 2017: 32-34-1, - 4.64 Units
Final Season 2016: 150-143-7, - 5.37 Units
The picks have been a mixed bag over the course of the month, but there is still a chance to get this month turned back around and produce a positive result.
Monday 19th December
Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers Pick: In an eighty-two game regular season and the majority of teams in the NBA earning a place in the Play Offs, a poor start can be overcome and that is what the Washington Wizards have to be telling themselves. The Wizards won a three game home stand to make it five wins in their last six games as they close back in on 0.500, but they have to show they can take that form on the road if they are going to finish in the top eight in the Eastern Conference.
This is a test for them against the inconsistent Indiana Pacers who haven't won or lost more than two games in a row to get to their 14-14 record. The Pacers won their last game so perhaps are set for a positive moment, but they are making a quick stop at home before heading on the road to take on the New York Knicks on Tuesday.
The Pacers have been stronger Defensively at home which has helped them to a 10-4 record here, but they are just 3-3 against the spread when hosting a team with a losing record. The Defense will be tested by the Washington Wizards who have shot 50% from the field in their last five games, although it has to be noted that the Wizards have not been very good on the other side of the court.
Washington have a good chance of continuing the hot shooting from the three point range though and the key to this game is going to be which of these teams is able to win the rebounding battle. Both have struggled in that regards in recent games, but I do feel this is going to be a close game which makes the points very appealing on the road team.
The Wizards are 6-0 against the spread in their last six visits to Indiana and I will take the points and look for them to keep it close here on their recent form.
Atlanta Hawks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The Atlanta Hawks have won three of their last five games which has seen them get back towards 0.500, but there is no disguising how disappointing the last month has been for them. There are still plenty of questions for the Hawks to answer as they look to be transitioning into a new look roster, but at least they have started winning some games of late.
Now they head to the Oklahoma City Thunder who beat the Atlanta Hawks on the road earlier in the month and who have been much stronger at home than on the road. Russell Westbrook doesn't want to be inundated with compliments for his own play and the triple-doubles he has been racking up for fun, especially if it doesn't mean the Oklahoma City Thunder are winning games.
The Thunder have won five of the last six home games and they have gone 4-1-1 against the spread in that time. They can improve on that against the Atlanta Hawks who have allowed teams to shoot at 50% from the field in their last five games and given up 112 points per game in that time.
This isn't the old Oklahoma City Thunder team who had the shooting power of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined, but they have averaged 109 points per game at home which is significantly better than on the road and I think that makes a big difference in this one.
You can't underestimate Atlanta because they have been much better Offensively of late and they have the three point shooters that can punish the Thunder whose Defense from that range has been a little erratic. However their shooting on the road hasn't been quite as good as at home and I think the Thunder can improve their 20-7 record against the spread from the last twenty-seven games against Atlanta by covering the spread in this one.
Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets Pick: They might still have the joint worst record in the NBA, but the Dallas Mavericks have won half of their last six games and look to have been a little more competitive in that time. No one is really going to imagine the Mavericks making it back into the Western Conference Play Off picture, but they might be a tougher proposition heading towards the trade deadline when Dallas will be expected to be involved.
This is a big test for the Dallas Mavericks when they head to the Denver Nuggets who have won two games in a row with really strong Offensive showings. Both of those games saw the Nuggets score at least 127 points and Denver should have a significant edge on the rebounding statistics to give them a chance to pull away for a win in this one.
However I think the Dallas Mavericks may surprise as it could be easy for the Nuggets to overlook them with a game at the LA Clippers to be played tomorrow. It also has to be said that Dallas have been shooting pretty well from the three point range which has been a problem for the Nuggets to defend while Denver have struggled overall on the Defensive side of the court having allowed 110 points per game over their last five games at 48% from the field.
The Mavericks have been looking after the ball better in recent games which has given them a chance to stay with teams and they should have opportunities in this one.
Dallas have a strong 8-3 record against the spread in their last eleven visits to Denver and they are 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven overall including a blow out win over them last week. They are getting a lot of points despite the big wins the Nuggets have had in their last two home games, and I think Dallas can perhaps take advantage of an unfocused opponent to keep this one close.
Tuesday 20th December
I seriously have no idea how all three picks didn't come back as winners on Monday when all had been in a position to do that. The Dallas Mavericks loss by a couple of points particularly hurt when they had been leading by almost twenty points in the Second Quarter which meant a twenty-nine point lead on the spread.
Hopefully Tuesday will prove to be a much better day.
San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets Pick: The San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets are amongst the very best teams in the NBA, let alone the Western Conference, and every game between these in-State rivals will be very important regardless of the situation.
It is the Spurs who have dominated the head to head in recent seasons, but the Rockets have split the first two games of the 2017 season. However both teams have won on the road at the other and Houston have lost three of their last four home games against San Antonio which is going to be some mental block to overcome.
Both teams are playing really good basketball at the moment, although there is no hotter team than the Rockets and I think the underdog can make the points they are being given count. The teams do match up well and both have shown they have been performing well Defensively while doing enough Offensively to create opportunities for a strong roster.
The key may be the improvements Houston have made on the boards and getting second chance opportunities while preventing the Spurs doing the same could be all-important in this game. The Rockets are well rested and this has to be a game they are completely focused on to show they are more than an also-ran in the Western Conference and I think they are going to keep this very close.
It isn't a lot of points being given to the underdog, but I will take them with the Houston Rockets and look for them to give the San Antonio Spurs all they can handle.
Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors Pick: A shorthanded Utah Jazz team took on the Golden State Warriors at home a couple of weeks ago and looked to be on the road to a huge blow out at the end of the First Half. They fought back to give the score a respectable look, but a fuller roster heads to The Oracle Arena on Tuesday.
They are getting as many points as the shorthanded team got at home when they head to Golden State although backing against the Warriors is a tough proposition despite them being 6-7 against the spread here this season. They are 1-4 against the spread when facing a team with a winning record and that is because the Warriors are always being asked to cover big numbers at home and I do think the Utah Jazz can stay within the number in this one.
Gordon Hayward is a huge boost for Utah having missed the game a couple of weeks ago and this is a Jazz team that prides themselves on being very strong on the Defensive side of the court. That will be tested to the full by Golden State and the Offensive players they have, but Utah will also have some joy on the other side of the court which suggests this will be closer than the layers expect.
Winning the battle on the boards is going to be huge for the Jazz if they are going to give themselves a chance in this one. They have the size with players like Rudy Gobert in the starting line up to do that, but the Warriors have been sneakily better on the boards than you may initially imagine.
That is going to be so important in this game and Golden State might be preparing for their big three game road trip which ends with a first game against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Christmas Day. I will be looking for Utah to do enough on the boards to give themselves a real chance of making this number of points work for them.
Wednesday 21st December
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: The Atlanta Hawks have been really inconsistent over the last couple of weeks which has seen them beat some big teams but then lose to teams they would be expected to beat. They are the favourites returning home to face the Minnesota Timberwolves, but I think the road team are being given too many points in this one.
There have been some improvements from the way Minnesota started this season to the way they have been playing in recent games. However there is no doubt that the Timberwolves have work to do to really fulfil the potential they have on the roster, but the young players have been producing some of their best basketball over the last week.
The Timberwolves have won two of their last three games and they came close to knocking off the Houston Rockets before a narrow loss in overtime in that time. I do expect Minnesota to exploit the spaces that Atlanta have left Defensively over the last couple of weeks and another game without Dwight Howard will make things difficult for them.
Both teams have been strong on the boards, but the one concern in backing Minnesota is their poor Defense from the three point range which is an area that Atlanta can have success. However the Timberwolves have a 4-1 record against the spread in the last five games in the series between these teams and I do think this is too many points for the home team to cover.
Atlanta just seem to be giving up too many points at the moment and so I will take the points and back the road underdog.
Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls Pick: The 2016/17 season has begun with the Washington Wizards failing to get over the hump in the Fourth Quarter in a number of games which has left them with a losing record. The Wizards will feel anything but a place in the Eastern Conference Play Offs would be a disappointing season and they suffered another tough loss at the Indiana Pacers a couple of days ago.
They are getting the points again when they head to the Chicago Bulls and I think the road underdog can be backed to keep this one within the number. The Bulls are coming in off a brutal beat down of the Detroit Pistons, but they had been struggling in the previous three games and the Wizards have enjoyed visiting this famous Arena where they have a 9-3 record against the spread in their last twelve visits.
The Wizards are playing well enough at the moment to keep this close with their Offense showing some spark in the last couple of weeks. They do need more from Bradley Beal and John Wall from the three point range where they have been struggling, but Chicago are not likely to get really hot from outside the arc themselves which gives Washington the chance to keep this one close.
I do think Chicago will likely have the edge on the boards which can be critical in these close games, but Washington have played well enough to challenge them all the way.
Chicago are 0-5 against the spread in their next game following a win and I think Washington can extend that sequence by making use of the points they are being given.
Thursday 22nd December
Orlando Magic @ New York Knicks Pick: There is no doubting that the New York Knicks have exceeded expectations to this point of the season and they have been especially good at home where they have compiled a 10-4 record. A battling display saw them come from a big deficit to beat the Indiana Pacers last time out and the Knicks have this one game to play before the big Christmas Day home game against the Boston Celtics.
They come into this game as a pretty solid favourite, but I think the Orlando Magic can make the points look too big by the end of this one. They do have a losing record against the spread this season, but those numbers are not helped by a really poor record as the favourite which isn't a surprise when you think of how inconsistent the Magic have been.
Orlando haven't played that well as a small underdog either and they are up against a Knicks team that have thrived as a favourite of six points or fewer this season. However I like the Magic to get the better of the number thanks to their shooting success in recent games going up against a Knicks team whose Defense has just had a few problems to overcome.
I do think the Magic have been looking after the ball pretty well of late and that can be a big difference maker in this one. It is also a game in which they will believe they can earn an edge on the boards where both teams have struggled and I think Orlando are catching the Knicks at the right time in their schedule.
The Magic were blown out by the Toronto Raptors earlier this week, but they have been involved in a number of competitive games other than that in recent games. Orlando don't have a good recent record at Madison Square Garden, but this is a Knicks team that does let a lot of their games go down to the wire because of their Defensive issues and I will take the points with the road underdog.
LA Lakers @ Miami Heat Pick: It wasn't meant to be as hard as it has been for the Miami Heat despite losing long time leader Dwyane Wade and there are some frustrations building for the remaining players. Not many would have picked the Heat to have fewer wins than the LA Lakers going into Christmas Day, but the fall for Miami has to be proven by the fact they have not been picked to play on that marquee date in the NBA calendar.
Another Overtime loss means the Heat have lost three in a row heading into this game and Hassan Whiteside has made it clear he expects to be a big part of the Offensive game plan down the stretch. The Center feels Miami got away from him in the loss to the Orlando Magic a couple of days ago, but the Heat have every chance of snapping their losing run against a Lakers team who have lost ten of their last eleven games.
The Lakers might be shorthanded for their visit to Miami and they have just had a few issues Defensively that can be exposed by the home team. A real issue for the Lakers to resolve is getting enough action on the boards but that is going to be a big challenge for them against this Miami team and I think that will give the home team enough of an edge in this one to win and cover this number.
It has to be noted that the LA Lakers are just 1-7 against the spread when playing with just a day of rest between games. Looking after the ball has been a better trait for Miami in recent games and they have the bench to match what the LA Lakers are able to do when the rosters are mixed about during the game. I think the Heat can do enough on the Defensive side of the court to make sure they get over this number and I will back the favourite in this one.
San Antonio Spurs @ LA Clippers Pick: The San Antonio Spurs needed a big comeback in the final five minutes to see off the Houston Rockets narrowly a couple of days ago and that improved the team to 15-1 on the road. I think they can be backed to beat the LA Clippers who are missing Blake Griffin until the New Year and will be needing a number of role players to cover his absence.
One of the reasons I like the San Antonio Spurs in this one is how well they are shooting from the field at the moment with the team averaging 51% from the field over their last five games. They have been incredibly efficient from the three point range and the Spurs can expose some of the problems the Clippers have had Defensively compared with earlier in the season.
San Antonio have been very strong on the rebounding stats too and I think that gives them a definite edge in this one. They are moving the ball very well to find the open shot and the Spurs have improved to 5-2 against the spread when playing a road game against a team with a winning record.
The Clippers have been a little better across the board at home, but there are still some problems on the Defensive side of the court that need to be resolved. With the Spurs currently rolling along as they have been, I am not sure the Clippers have the time to resolve their problems at this moment and I can see San Antonio coming through with a cover and a win.
Los Angeles have only kept one of their last eight opponents from scoring at least 100 points and I think that is an issue for them here as San Antonio make a few more plays in the Fourth Quarter to win this game.
Sunday 25th December
The NBA plays its annual Christmas Day selection of games in a back to back to back schedule through the day. We begin at Madison Square Garden at 12pm Eastern Time and end up at The Staples Center for 10:30pm Eastern Time start with three other games between those.
Usually this would be a spot kept solely for the NBA, but they will be competing with two big NFL games that have huge Play Off implications on Sunday and the ratings will be of interest for the League on Monday morning.
Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: Things may be opening up in New York City for the NBA Christmas Day schedule, but the biggest game of the day will head to the court in the second game of the day. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors met last Christmas and they have played the NBA Finals against one another for the last two seasons while being favourites to meet one another again at the end of the 2017 NBA season.
There are some obstacles for both to overcome in their respective Conferences, but it would take a brave person to pick the team who is capable of beating the Cavaliers or the Warriors over a seven game series prior to the NBA Finals.
A rivalry has definitely built up between these teams who want to finish with the best record and have home court advantage in the NBA Finals. They also put out some of the best players in the NBA on the court when the Cavaliers and Warriors meet, although LeBron James has downplayed the significance of this game with suggestions that Cleveland are treating it as any other regular season game.
James was amazing in the NBA Finals and the reason the Cavaliers recovered a 3-1 deficit to win that series, but he has been pointing out the importance of losing JR Smith for the coming months. While I agree Smith is a loss, the Cavaliers can deal with his absence if they can continue playing the Defense which helped them beat the Warriors in the NBA Finals.
Smith is not known for his strong Defensive play, while the rest of the Cleveland team have not been up to the level they set for themselves last June. That is going to be a problem against a Golden State team that have added Kevin Durant and been producing 49% from the field in their recent games. A bigger concern for the Cavaliers has to be the way they have played the three point shot in their recent games, an area that Golden State will look to exploit.
In fact it is the Golden State Warriors who have been showing their Defensive strength in their most recent games and they could give Cleveland some problems. Kyrie Irving is a bad match up for Stephen Curry from a Defensive point of view, but they could give Curry more help knowing Kevin Durant will give LeBron James trouble with his size, while Klay Thompson is a very strong Defender and may spend time on Irving.
Both teams have looked after the ball effectively and Cleveland do have a 4-1 record against the spread in the last five games against the Warriors. However the Cavaliers do have a losing record against the spread at home when facing a team with a winning record and I think Golden State can beat them on Christmas Day for a second season in a row. I will back the Warriors to win and cover in the biggest game on Christmas Day in the NBA.
Chicago Bulls @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The San Antonio Spurs might have a fairly different feel these days without Tim Duncan in the line up and players like Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili no longer the key ones for them. Gregg Popovich will still look to his veterans at times, but the San Antonio Spurs have been better than expected because of the improvement of other players on the roster, most notably Kahwi Leonard who has become a star in the NBA.
It showed how much things have changed for San Antonio that they were able to rest some of the older legs on Friday in a blow out win over the Portland Trail Blazers and only the Golden State Warriors have a better record in the Western Conference. There are still some questions that will be needed to be answered for the Spurs in April once we hit the Play Offs, but they are developing the right way.
They will be hosting the Chicago Bulls on Christmas Day as their visitors have perhaps regressed to a level that would be less surprising. The Bulls started the season very impressively, but they have a losing record going into Christmas Day as the veterans have perhaps not gelled as well as it seemed they had.
Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo have both won NBA Championship Rings and came to Chicago to help Jimmy Butler take the next step. While Butler has the numbers, both Wade and Rondo have been inconsistent and the Bulls don't have the depth to think they can challenge either Cleveland or Toronto in the Eastern Conference.
The Bulls have hit a wall when it comes to what they want to do from an Offensive point of view and they are not expected to get things going any easier when they face this solid San Antonio Defense. The three point shot has been a struggle for Chicago all season and that is another area where the Spurs have been solid enough to prevent teams lighting them up, which was highlighted last week when shutting down the Houston Rockets from that range.
Considering that is what Houston do as well as any team in the NBA, the Spurs success was even more impressive. They also don't anticipate to face the same difficulties in getting baskets when they have the ball in hand and San Antonio can punish the Bulls' issues Defensively that have been highlighted in recent games.
Even the strength of the Chicago team in attacking the boards might be nullified by the San Antonio Spurs who have put considerable stock into this Christmas Day game when you think they rested players in anticipation of it. The Spurs need to look after the ball a little better than they have in their most recent games, and they do have a poor 5-7 record against the spread at home.
The Spurs have not been a great favourite to back when asked to cover a lot of points like they are on Christmas Day, but they are 5-0 against the spread in their last five against a team with a losing record. I think they can do enough at both ends of the court to find a way to pull away from the Chicago Bulls in this one and I will back the Spurs to cover.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: There is no doubting the historically strong numbers Russell Westbrook is putting up this season and I fully expect he is going to have a huge game in the Christmas Day showdown with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Westbrook doesn't worry himself about the statistics, but it is clear he is trying to will the Oklahoma City Thunder to surpassing all expectations this season, the first without Kevin Durant.
One of the problems the Thunder have had is finding consistent Offensive support for Westbrook through the season and their 18-12 record says much about how well their Point Guard has been playing. They are very much expected to be in the Play Off mix thanks to the start made, but the Thunder look some way from being able to beat the top teams in the Western Conference, especially over a seven game series.
There is elements of a rebuild in Oklahoma City, but a clearer picture in Minnesota where the young Timberwolves are still trying to understand and execute what Tom Thibodeau wants his team to do. That is especially the case on the Defensive side of the court where Minnesota have been unable to really produce over the full 48 minutes and the Timberwolves will need to turn the key on their performances sooner rather than later if they are to make the Play Offs.
No one will doubt the exciting roster Minnesota have and their young stars have been able to show off on the Offensive side of the court. They should have their successes against a Thunders team that have allowed teams to shoot at 49% from the field in recent games although the Defensive disorganisation is going to be broken down by Westbrook and the Thunder too.
Both teams have players who can take over the rebounding, which suggests a close battle on the boards, while the Timberwolves might find a little more room for three point shooting which can be an important factor in this one. The Timberwolves will just need the bench players to stay with the Oklahoma City Thunder in this game and doing that will give them a chance of recording the upset on Christmas Day.
I do like the road underdog in this one, but my concern is how well Oklahoma City have played when hosting a team with a losing record. They are 7-2 against the spread in that spot and Minnesota have struggled in recent games against the Thunder. However a lot of those were with Kevin Durant in the home locker room and I do think the Minnesota Timberwolves are playing well enough to make these points count on the road.
LA Clippers @ LA Lakers Pick: These days it is the LA Clippers and not the LA Lakers who run Los Angeles, but there are still some doubts about the former and they won't be fully recognised in these parts unless they can win a NBA Championship. The Clippers haven't even made the Western Conference Finals, let alone win the NBA Finals, and a team with the third best record in the West are still one that won't be trusted unless they can win a lot of games in April, May and June.
It is still a transitional time for the LA Lakers whose promising start under Luke Walton has been forgotten in light of an 11-22 record. There are some good young pieces on the roster, but the Lakers are still a work in progress even if they are rewarded with a big appearance on Christmas Day yet again.
The Lakers were beaten by the Clippers on Christmas Day last year in the final game of the day and they will do well to avoid that fate again. It is a Clippers team missing Blake Griffin until the New Year, but Chris Paul is expected to return having missed the Friday night surprising loss to the Dallas Mavericks, a result that should have the players fired up to perform.
A strong Defensive start to the season has not been on show in recent games for the Clippers, but they will feel they can get what they want Offensively against this Lakers Defense. Protecting against the three point shot has been a particular problem for the Lakers and we all know that the Clippers will move the ball around and look for the open man to knock down some big shots from outside of the arc.
Rebounding shouldn't be a big concern for the Clippers in this one, while having their primary ball handling player back on the court in Chris Paul is key to restricting the turnovers that have hurt them of late. It also means the Clippers should match what the Lakers are able to produce from the bench with the likes of Raymond Felton and Jamal Crawford coming out in relief of the starters.
The Clippers haven't been that good against the spread when facing a team with a losing record this season, while they are 1-4 against the spread in the last five against the Lakers. However the Lakers haven't exactly thrived when playing the best teams in the NBA even with the points they have been getting and I think the Clippers will be able to cover a spread that was over double the size twelve months ago.
That is because of some improvement from the Lakers as well as Blake Griffin being absent and Chris Paul a little banged up, but I like the Clippers and I will back them to round out the day with a win and a cover.
MY PICKS: 19/12 Washington Wizards + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
19/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/12 Dallas Mavericks + 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
20/12 Houston Rockets + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
20/12 Utah Jazz + 12 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/12 Minnesota Timberwolves + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
21/12 Washington Wizards + 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
22/12 Orlando Magic + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
22/12 Miami Heat - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
22/12 San Antonio Spurs - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
25/12 Golden State Warriors - 2 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
25/12 San Antonio Spurs - 9 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
25/12 Minnesota Timberwolves + 5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/12 LA Clippers - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
December 19-25 Update: 5-9, - 4.41 Units
December 12-18 Final: 5-5, - 0.37 Units
December 5-11 Final: 5-6, - 1.41 Units
December 1-4 Final: 4-3, + 0.68 Units
December Update: 14-14, - 1.10 Units
November Final: 24-25-1, - 2.92 Units
October Final: 8-9, - 1.72 Units
Season 2017: 32-34-1, - 4.64 Units
Final Season 2016: 150-143-7, - 5.37 Units
Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units
Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units
Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units
Friday, 16 December 2016
College Football Bowl Picks 2016 (December 17-27)
I am splitting the Bowl Games into two different spreads with half the games scheduled to be covered in this spread and a second thread to open for the games to be played from Wednesday 28th December through to Monday 2nd January. That means exactly 20 games are covered by each thread although I clearly won't have picks from every game.
The National Championship Game will be set on New Year's Eve and I will have a separate post for that game which takes place days before the Australian Open Tennis Grand Slam event is due to start and after the NFL Play Offs have begun.
Bowl Games have proven to be a difficult challenge to cap as you can't just break down which teams are better or match up better, but motivation has proven to be a huge factor at this time of the season. Additional information like Coaching changes or players being asked to sit out have to be factored in, but the motivation of teams has proven to be a big question mark that has to be answered.
I will be making a few picks over the next couple of weeks when the majority of the Bowl Games are played and splitting into two threads you keep the picks towards the top of the page. Hopefully it will be a good postseason having had some problems finding the right teams at this time last season.
Saturday 17th December
New Mexico Lobos vs UTSA Roadrunners Pick: The first Bowl Game of the season is the Gildan New Mexico Bowl where the New Mexico Lobos will be playing on home soil for the second season in a row. Last season they were beaten as the underdog against the Arizona Wildcats, but this time they will be going in as the favourite when taking on the UTSA Roadrunners.
With a little more luck and winning the right games, New Mexico would have been playing in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game having finished with the same record as the Boise State Broncos but losing out on the tiebreaker. It was a solid enough season for the UTSA Roadrunners too having finished behind the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs in the Conference USA West Division and this is the first time they are playing in a Bowl Game which is a huge achievement for this school.
I will regularly mention motivation and the importance of that in Bowl Games, but in this one I imagine it is evened out between the schools. Both will be desperate to frank their 2016 season with a Bowl success, while New Mexico have added motivation of playing on home field and UTSA are in their first Bowl Game.
The huge test for the UTSA Roadrunners is going to be trying to cope with the triple option the New Mexico Lobos run and attempting to slow that down. That looks a tough ask for them when you consider how well the Lobos have run the ball all season and I do think New Mexico will be in a position to move the chains fairly consistently all game.
There isn't a set Quarter Back for New Mexico and they are a team that will attempt to run on all three downs for much of the game. The team only average 109 passing yards per game on the season, but the Lobos will recognise the UTSA Secondary is one that will give up some significant yards through the air if New Mexico wish to attack them that way. The Offensive Line does provide a lot of protection with teams focusing on stopping the run, and it looks like New Mexico can continue their high-scoring production in this one.
It will be up to the Roadrunners to match that with their own Offense and it does feel they will have chances to stay with New Mexico for a while at least. Jarveon Williams and Jalen Rhodes will both get a chance to carry the ball for the Roadrunners and they can have some success on the ground, although they need more from the Offensive Line against a Lobos Defensive Line which had been struggling to stop the run down the stretch.
Those games did come against a higher level of opponent than the UTSA Roadrunners, but both Williams and Rhodes can have some success. That might give Dalton Strum a chance at Quarter Back although he has been playing behind an Offensive Line that has struggled significantly more when Strum has dropped back to throw the ball. New Mexico have the players who can get to Strum if he is in obvious passing situations, although I expect the Quarter Back will have some success if he is given a little bit of time to attack the Secondary.
However the key to this game is likely to be the dominance that New Mexico look to show at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. That should give the Lobos a chance to establish the run, but also make enough plays with their Defensive Line to slow down the UTSA Roadrunners just enough to pull away with a victory. There is plenty of motivation to show this programme is on the right road with a win in this Bowl Game to underline an 8-4 season and I think the Lobos will win by around ten points so I will take them to cover the spread in the opening Bowl Game of the 2016 season.
San Diego State Aztecs vs Houston Cougars Pick: After beating both the Oklahoma Sooners and the Louisville Cardinals in the regular season, the Houston Cougars might have expected a better Bowl Game than the Las Vegas Bowl on the opening day of the Bowl season. They take on the Mountain West Conference Champions San Diego State Aztecs who have won two of their last three Bowl Games too.
The Cougars have lost Head Coach Tom Herman to the Texas Longhorns at the end of the regular season and the decision was made that he would not be coaching in this Bowl Game. They have already decided Major Applewhite would be taking over from Herman and his has been the Offensive Co-Ordinator for two years here which should mean Houston are making a seamless enough transition from Herman to the new Head Coach.
I do question the motivation a little bit here because I do think Houston may have been looking to play in a much bigger Bowl Game especially as they upset two of the bigger schools on their schedule. They couldn't quite carry that on while negotiating the American Athletic Conference regular season but I do think they could match up quite well with San Diego State who might have already mentally checked out having won their Conference Championship Game.
Winning a Bowl Game won't surpass the achievements San Diego State have already achieved in 2016 and they don't match up that well with the Cougars either. The Aztecs are a team that look to hand the ball off to Donnel Pumphrey at Running Back and the Offense goes where Pumphrey does. However he is up against a Houston Defensive Line which has been stout up front all season and limiting the damage San Diego State can do on the ground will give them a huge edge on that side of the ball.
That will mean there might be more pressure on Christian Chapman to make plays through the air at Quarter Back having spent much of this season relying on the running game to keep the chains moving. Chapman will be facing a Houston Secondary who have given up some big plays through the air, but the pass rush has been very fierce down the stretch and the Cougars will feel they can pressure the Quarter Back into a mistake or two.
This will be Greg Ward's last game for the Houston Cougars at Quarter Back after a successful career here, one that he would love to end on a high note. Ward has been banged up in the last few weeks of the regular season but has had three weeks to get himself ready for this Bowl Game where a lot of the Offense will be resting on his shoulders. The Cougars haven't been able to run the ball consistently at all this season, but Ward can be a threat to do that as long as his leg issues have cleared up.
Ward has to be confident of what he can do when it comes to throwing the ball against an Aztecs Secondary which has given up some big numbers in their last three games. Those haven't come against a team as good as Houston is at throwing the ball and Ward can sign off on his career in Houston with a big day statistically.
It does feel the Houston Cougars match up very well against the San Diego State Aztecs and I do think they will have enough motivation to end this season with another double digit win season to perform at close to their best. The Aztecs can reach 11 wins for only the fourth time ever, but the Conference Championship was the motivation in 2016 and they have achieved that and might see Quarter Back Chapman make one or two poor plays which allows the Cougars to win this by around a Touchdown.
Toledo Rockets vs Appalachian State Mountaineers Pick: The Appalachian State Mountaineers are back in the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl for a second year in a row, but this is a young programme that should be excited about participating in the Bowl Game. They finished as joint Champion in the Sun Belt Conference and the Mountaineers will feel confident having won this Bowl Game last season.
The Mountaineers won't be thinking the task will be easy to make it back to back Bowl wins as they take on the Toledo Rockets who only finished behind the unbeaten Western Michigan Broncos in the MAC West Division. The oddsmakers in Vegas have also had Toledo as a favourite in this Game which has to inspire Appalachian State to make sure they bring their very best into this one.
Toledo will also be respected having won three of their last four Bowl appearances and they have reached the expectations of preseason by being the closest team to Western Michigan in the Division. The Rockets have to be encouraged by the way teams have been able to run the ball against the Mountaineers Defensive Line in the last three games they latter played and that could mean Kareem Hunt is in line for a big game for them.
That line of scrimmage is going to be very important for Toledo whose Offense has thrived on being balanced with Hunt running the ball and opening things up for Logan Woodside at Quarter Back who has thrown 43 Touchdown passes on the season. If the Rockets are unable to establish the run, the Mountaineers would love to force Woodside to continue to make plays against a Secondary that have performed very well this season.
Appalachian State are capable of turning the ball over and Woodside was guilty of a couple of mistakes when throwing the ball in the final few games he played, although it would be a surprise if the Rockets are not able to fire and move the chains.
The test for Toledo will be on the Defensive Line and trying to stop an Appalachian State team who have two Running Backs that have surpassed 1300 yards over the last couple of years. Marcus Cox looks healthy and will be joined by Jalin Moore in the backfield as they look to punish the Rockets Defensive Line which has had difficulties stopping the run for much of the season. The Mountaineers will pound the ball day long if necessary and have been churning out some big gains on the ground and look set to keep the team in third and manageable when they are asked to make some plays through the air.
Taylor Lamb might not have the huge numbers at Quarter Back, but he is more than a capable performer in that position. Lamb doesn't make a lot of mistakes which is important for the Mountaineers and there is room in the Toledo Secondary he can exploit if the Rockets are going to load the box to stop Cox and Moore.
That balance makes the Appalachian State Mountaineers dangerous and I think it gives them the edge in a surrounding that will quickly become familiar to them. It looks like the money is coming in on the Mountaineers, but they can use the fact they are the underdog as another motivational tool as there is a feeling of disrespect that can fire them up. Being joint Champions of the Sun Belt Conference is part of a really good two years for the Mountaineers and they should be fired up for this one.
I won't disregard a very good Toledo Rockets team who will have their successes in this one, but I think the Mountaineers Defensive unit is just capable of a few more plays. There isn't much between them, but I will take the point with the underdog and look for the Mountaineers to make it back to back Bowl wins here.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs UCF Knights Pick: Any time a team goes from 0 wins to becoming Bowl eligible you have to credit the players and the Head Coach and that is what the UCF Knights have done. They've earned their spot in the Autonation Cure Bowl but it will be interesting to see how much this team has left in the tank after losing their last two games.
They are a pretty big favourite against the joint Champion from the Sun Belt Conference Arkansas State Red Wolves who have recovered from a really poor start to the season. The poor start mean the Red Wolves were going to struggle to match their nine wins from 2015 and they are going to be at least one game short even if they win this game. However the Red Wolves haven't won a Bowl Game since 2013 and will be looking to snap their two game losing run in the postseason here.
The key for Arkansas State is how effectively their Defensive unit can perform in a game against a team from a better Conference than the Sun Belt in the UCF Knights. I do have to say that the Knights don't have one of the better Offenses in the nation and can be a little predictable, but it will still be a big test for the Red Wolves who have been in dominating form in the Sun Belt Conference.
An inexperienced Running Back unit has struggled to get the run established for the Knights and it will be tough to impose that on the Red Wolves Defensive Line which has been stout up front. That has come against weaker competition, but the Knights' own struggles suggests this is going to be a game that depends on McKenzie Milton at Quarter Back to make the plays to keep the chains moving.
McKenzie has not played badly at Quarter Back, but he is likely to be facing some very effective pressure from the Red Wolves Defensive Line in this one and that can see drives stall. The pressure up front has also led to Interceptions in the Secondary and the Red Wolves will feel their Defensive unit gives them a chance in this Bowl Game.
It looks like being a difficult test for the UCF Knights to run the ball, but Arkansas State might be able to establish Warren Wand which can open things up for an effective passing game. The Knights' Defensive Line has just worn down over the course of the season and they gave up some big numbers in their final three games of the season and Wand will be hoping to pick up from where other teams have left off.
Wand has had a decent season, but the Red Wolves look to get the run going to open up the pass and failing to do that in this game will make it difficult for Justice Hansen at Quarter Back to throw against a very solid Secondary. The Knights have only allowed 200 passing yards per game through the season and it will be a big upgrade in competition than what Hansen has been facing in the Sun Belt Conference.
This just feels like it will be a close game with little between these teams. The UCF Knights should have plenty of motivation having missed out on a Bowl Game last season and recovering from a 0-12 2015, but they don't score a lot of points and I can't see them blow away the Arkansas State Red Wolves and I do think the latter can make some plays on the ground to give them a chance to throw the ball successfully.
It is a raise in competition for the Red Wolves, but I will take the points here and look for the to keep this competitive.
Friday 23rd December
There have been a number of Bowl Games played over the last week but I will admit that a few of them have not really appealed at all from any angle. They have been decent games to watch, but watching is as far as it has gone for me.
The opening picks were split 2-2, but hopefully I can build on that in the remaining days on this thread before a new one is created for the 'second half' of the Bowl Games.
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs Old Dominion Monarchs Pick: Motivation is always a question mark for teams around Bowl season, and the last week has shown it can be an issue for players in the lesser Bowls too, but it shouldn't be for either of these teams competing in the Popeyes Bahamas Bowl.
The Eastern Michigan Eagles are in a Bowl game for the first time since 1987 and the Old Dominion Monarchs are in the post season for the first time ever so I expect both teams to be ready to go despite the brilliant setting they will be playing in.
The layers are favouring in the Monarchs who ended the season on a high compared with the Eagles who almost fell into the Bowl mix. The Eagles lost three of their last five games but they did enough to earn a Bowl bid, but Old Dominion have won five in a row and they have won eight of their last nine.
Old Dominion have to be feeling confident of their chances with what looks a balanced Offense taking on an Eastern Michigan Defensive unit that have had difficulties stopping the run and the pass. The Monarchs can begin by handing the ball off to Ray Lawry at Running Back who has rushed for over 1000 yards for the season and is facing an Eagles Defensive Line which has allowed 200 yards per game on the ground in their last three games and have given them up at 5.4 yards per carry.
Lawry is likely to put the Monarchs in third and manageable through the afternoon and that should give David Washington an easier day in the office at Quarter Back. Washington has avoided mistakes despite throwing for over twenty-five Touchdowns and he will feel there are gaps in the Secondary to exploit with Eastern Michigan giving up 270 passing yards per game through the course of the season. The Eagles have been able to force Interceptions, but the balance on the Old Dominion Offense means they are likely going to have to stay with them in a shoot out.
With that in mind, Eastern Michigan will be keeping their fingers crossed that Ian Eriksen, the starting Running Back, is available having been banged up in recent weeks. His absence in the last game didn't help the Eagles who are now facing an Old Dominion Defensive Line which has prided themselves on at least slowing down the run. The line of scrimmage is going to be a key in this one because it might put too much pressure on Brogan Roback at Quarter Back to make plays against a Secondary that have also shown improvement.
Roback has had a memorable season at Quarter Back, but the Monarchs have been able to build a really strong pass rush which could have success if Eastern Michigan are in third and long too often. That pressure has helped the Secondary produce some solid numbers against the pass, while Roback has not been as effective at keeping the ball out of Defenders' hands when throwing as David Washington.
That might prove to be the difference in a game where both teams will feel the Offenses can move the chains consistently through the afternoon. Extra possessions and finishing drives with Touchdowns are going to be the key to the outcome, and I do feel the Old Dominion Monarchs are more likely to win both of those factors. Credit the Eastern Michigan Eagles for their season, but the Monarchs can underline their strong season with a win by at least a Touchdown and I will back them to cover in this game.
Monday 26th December
Miami (Ohio) Redhawks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: These two teams must be surprised they are competing in a Bowl Game having had some really difficult moments in the 2016 season, but both should be motivated to perform in the St Petersburg Bowl in Florida. After a 0-6 start to the season, the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks had to run the table to reach the six wins eligibility for a Bowl, while the Mississippi State Bulldogs are a rare 5-7 team that have been invited to play.
The motivation is there with the Redhawks who are playing in a Bowl Game for the first time since 2010. For the Mississippi State Bulldogs, this Bowl Game is seen as a chance to give the young players the experience to take into the SEC next season and start rebuilding a school that has lost some big players in the last couple of years.
However this does feel like a bit of a mismatch and I think the Bulldogs are likely going to be too good for the Redhawks when it is all said and done. This is simply not a level that the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks have been used to playing and I do think that will show up the longer this game wears on and that should see the Mississippi State Bulldogs wear them down and pull away in the second half.
Nick Fitzgerald has played well at Quarter Back for the Bulldogs, although he was always going to have something of a learning curve in front of him, and he has shown he can bring a dual-threat to the field. He has been the main ball carrier for the Bulldogs, but Fitzgerald should be aided by Aeris Williams when it comes to running the ball against a Redhawks Defensive Line which may struggle to contain them.
That should ease the pass rush and open up the throwing lanes for Fitzgerald who has been making use of Fred Ross through the season in his final season with the Bulldogs. It might be a game where Fitzgerald makes use of some of the younger Receivers to build chemistry for the new season, but I expect Ross to have an impact and put the Bulldogs in a position to score plenty of points.
Gus Ragland took over the starting Quarter Back job for the Redhawks after the 0-6 start and sparked the recovery with some flawless performances from that spot. However I do think Ragland faces his most difficult task of the season despite some of the awful numbers the Bulldogs gave up in the SEC because that is a Conference that produces some of the better teams in the nation.
The key for the Miami (Ohio) Offense has to be Alonzo Smith and Kenny Young who have been able to run the ball very well for them and helped Ragland by keeping the team in third and manageable. They might be encouraged by the numbers allowed by the Bulldogs Defensive Line in recent games, but again it should be noted that was up against SEC Offensive Lines and it is going to be a big task for the Redhawks to play up that level throughout this game.
I do think Ragland, Smith and Young will have some big plays, but they may lack the consistency to continue to do that throughout the sixty minutes they need to in this game. With the added level of quality in the Mississippi State Bulldogs ranks, I think they will find a way to pull away in the second half as they make some big plays at the line of scrimmage and take advantage of some of the protection issues the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks have had.
This is a big number to cover for the SEC team, but I think they are sufficiently motivated to to that and I will back the Mississippi State Bulldogs to win this one by a wide margin.
MY PICKS: New Mexico Lobos - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Appalachian State Mountaineers + 1 Point @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Arkansas State Red Wolves + 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Old Dominion Monarchs - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Mississippi State Bulldogs - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Bowl Update (December 17-27): 2-3, - 1.19 Units
Season 2016: 62-69-3, - 11.55 Units (134 Units Staked, - 8.62% Yield)
The National Championship Game will be set on New Year's Eve and I will have a separate post for that game which takes place days before the Australian Open Tennis Grand Slam event is due to start and after the NFL Play Offs have begun.
Bowl Games have proven to be a difficult challenge to cap as you can't just break down which teams are better or match up better, but motivation has proven to be a huge factor at this time of the season. Additional information like Coaching changes or players being asked to sit out have to be factored in, but the motivation of teams has proven to be a big question mark that has to be answered.
I will be making a few picks over the next couple of weeks when the majority of the Bowl Games are played and splitting into two threads you keep the picks towards the top of the page. Hopefully it will be a good postseason having had some problems finding the right teams at this time last season.
Saturday 17th December
New Mexico Lobos vs UTSA Roadrunners Pick: The first Bowl Game of the season is the Gildan New Mexico Bowl where the New Mexico Lobos will be playing on home soil for the second season in a row. Last season they were beaten as the underdog against the Arizona Wildcats, but this time they will be going in as the favourite when taking on the UTSA Roadrunners.
With a little more luck and winning the right games, New Mexico would have been playing in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game having finished with the same record as the Boise State Broncos but losing out on the tiebreaker. It was a solid enough season for the UTSA Roadrunners too having finished behind the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs in the Conference USA West Division and this is the first time they are playing in a Bowl Game which is a huge achievement for this school.
I will regularly mention motivation and the importance of that in Bowl Games, but in this one I imagine it is evened out between the schools. Both will be desperate to frank their 2016 season with a Bowl success, while New Mexico have added motivation of playing on home field and UTSA are in their first Bowl Game.
The huge test for the UTSA Roadrunners is going to be trying to cope with the triple option the New Mexico Lobos run and attempting to slow that down. That looks a tough ask for them when you consider how well the Lobos have run the ball all season and I do think New Mexico will be in a position to move the chains fairly consistently all game.
There isn't a set Quarter Back for New Mexico and they are a team that will attempt to run on all three downs for much of the game. The team only average 109 passing yards per game on the season, but the Lobos will recognise the UTSA Secondary is one that will give up some significant yards through the air if New Mexico wish to attack them that way. The Offensive Line does provide a lot of protection with teams focusing on stopping the run, and it looks like New Mexico can continue their high-scoring production in this one.
It will be up to the Roadrunners to match that with their own Offense and it does feel they will have chances to stay with New Mexico for a while at least. Jarveon Williams and Jalen Rhodes will both get a chance to carry the ball for the Roadrunners and they can have some success on the ground, although they need more from the Offensive Line against a Lobos Defensive Line which had been struggling to stop the run down the stretch.
Those games did come against a higher level of opponent than the UTSA Roadrunners, but both Williams and Rhodes can have some success. That might give Dalton Strum a chance at Quarter Back although he has been playing behind an Offensive Line that has struggled significantly more when Strum has dropped back to throw the ball. New Mexico have the players who can get to Strum if he is in obvious passing situations, although I expect the Quarter Back will have some success if he is given a little bit of time to attack the Secondary.
However the key to this game is likely to be the dominance that New Mexico look to show at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. That should give the Lobos a chance to establish the run, but also make enough plays with their Defensive Line to slow down the UTSA Roadrunners just enough to pull away with a victory. There is plenty of motivation to show this programme is on the right road with a win in this Bowl Game to underline an 8-4 season and I think the Lobos will win by around ten points so I will take them to cover the spread in the opening Bowl Game of the 2016 season.
San Diego State Aztecs vs Houston Cougars Pick: After beating both the Oklahoma Sooners and the Louisville Cardinals in the regular season, the Houston Cougars might have expected a better Bowl Game than the Las Vegas Bowl on the opening day of the Bowl season. They take on the Mountain West Conference Champions San Diego State Aztecs who have won two of their last three Bowl Games too.
The Cougars have lost Head Coach Tom Herman to the Texas Longhorns at the end of the regular season and the decision was made that he would not be coaching in this Bowl Game. They have already decided Major Applewhite would be taking over from Herman and his has been the Offensive Co-Ordinator for two years here which should mean Houston are making a seamless enough transition from Herman to the new Head Coach.
I do question the motivation a little bit here because I do think Houston may have been looking to play in a much bigger Bowl Game especially as they upset two of the bigger schools on their schedule. They couldn't quite carry that on while negotiating the American Athletic Conference regular season but I do think they could match up quite well with San Diego State who might have already mentally checked out having won their Conference Championship Game.
Winning a Bowl Game won't surpass the achievements San Diego State have already achieved in 2016 and they don't match up that well with the Cougars either. The Aztecs are a team that look to hand the ball off to Donnel Pumphrey at Running Back and the Offense goes where Pumphrey does. However he is up against a Houston Defensive Line which has been stout up front all season and limiting the damage San Diego State can do on the ground will give them a huge edge on that side of the ball.
That will mean there might be more pressure on Christian Chapman to make plays through the air at Quarter Back having spent much of this season relying on the running game to keep the chains moving. Chapman will be facing a Houston Secondary who have given up some big plays through the air, but the pass rush has been very fierce down the stretch and the Cougars will feel they can pressure the Quarter Back into a mistake or two.
This will be Greg Ward's last game for the Houston Cougars at Quarter Back after a successful career here, one that he would love to end on a high note. Ward has been banged up in the last few weeks of the regular season but has had three weeks to get himself ready for this Bowl Game where a lot of the Offense will be resting on his shoulders. The Cougars haven't been able to run the ball consistently at all this season, but Ward can be a threat to do that as long as his leg issues have cleared up.
Ward has to be confident of what he can do when it comes to throwing the ball against an Aztecs Secondary which has given up some big numbers in their last three games. Those haven't come against a team as good as Houston is at throwing the ball and Ward can sign off on his career in Houston with a big day statistically.
It does feel the Houston Cougars match up very well against the San Diego State Aztecs and I do think they will have enough motivation to end this season with another double digit win season to perform at close to their best. The Aztecs can reach 11 wins for only the fourth time ever, but the Conference Championship was the motivation in 2016 and they have achieved that and might see Quarter Back Chapman make one or two poor plays which allows the Cougars to win this by around a Touchdown.
Toledo Rockets vs Appalachian State Mountaineers Pick: The Appalachian State Mountaineers are back in the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl for a second year in a row, but this is a young programme that should be excited about participating in the Bowl Game. They finished as joint Champion in the Sun Belt Conference and the Mountaineers will feel confident having won this Bowl Game last season.
The Mountaineers won't be thinking the task will be easy to make it back to back Bowl wins as they take on the Toledo Rockets who only finished behind the unbeaten Western Michigan Broncos in the MAC West Division. The oddsmakers in Vegas have also had Toledo as a favourite in this Game which has to inspire Appalachian State to make sure they bring their very best into this one.
Toledo will also be respected having won three of their last four Bowl appearances and they have reached the expectations of preseason by being the closest team to Western Michigan in the Division. The Rockets have to be encouraged by the way teams have been able to run the ball against the Mountaineers Defensive Line in the last three games they latter played and that could mean Kareem Hunt is in line for a big game for them.
That line of scrimmage is going to be very important for Toledo whose Offense has thrived on being balanced with Hunt running the ball and opening things up for Logan Woodside at Quarter Back who has thrown 43 Touchdown passes on the season. If the Rockets are unable to establish the run, the Mountaineers would love to force Woodside to continue to make plays against a Secondary that have performed very well this season.
Appalachian State are capable of turning the ball over and Woodside was guilty of a couple of mistakes when throwing the ball in the final few games he played, although it would be a surprise if the Rockets are not able to fire and move the chains.
The test for Toledo will be on the Defensive Line and trying to stop an Appalachian State team who have two Running Backs that have surpassed 1300 yards over the last couple of years. Marcus Cox looks healthy and will be joined by Jalin Moore in the backfield as they look to punish the Rockets Defensive Line which has had difficulties stopping the run for much of the season. The Mountaineers will pound the ball day long if necessary and have been churning out some big gains on the ground and look set to keep the team in third and manageable when they are asked to make some plays through the air.
Taylor Lamb might not have the huge numbers at Quarter Back, but he is more than a capable performer in that position. Lamb doesn't make a lot of mistakes which is important for the Mountaineers and there is room in the Toledo Secondary he can exploit if the Rockets are going to load the box to stop Cox and Moore.
That balance makes the Appalachian State Mountaineers dangerous and I think it gives them the edge in a surrounding that will quickly become familiar to them. It looks like the money is coming in on the Mountaineers, but they can use the fact they are the underdog as another motivational tool as there is a feeling of disrespect that can fire them up. Being joint Champions of the Sun Belt Conference is part of a really good two years for the Mountaineers and they should be fired up for this one.
I won't disregard a very good Toledo Rockets team who will have their successes in this one, but I think the Mountaineers Defensive unit is just capable of a few more plays. There isn't much between them, but I will take the point with the underdog and look for the Mountaineers to make it back to back Bowl wins here.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs UCF Knights Pick: Any time a team goes from 0 wins to becoming Bowl eligible you have to credit the players and the Head Coach and that is what the UCF Knights have done. They've earned their spot in the Autonation Cure Bowl but it will be interesting to see how much this team has left in the tank after losing their last two games.
They are a pretty big favourite against the joint Champion from the Sun Belt Conference Arkansas State Red Wolves who have recovered from a really poor start to the season. The poor start mean the Red Wolves were going to struggle to match their nine wins from 2015 and they are going to be at least one game short even if they win this game. However the Red Wolves haven't won a Bowl Game since 2013 and will be looking to snap their two game losing run in the postseason here.
The key for Arkansas State is how effectively their Defensive unit can perform in a game against a team from a better Conference than the Sun Belt in the UCF Knights. I do have to say that the Knights don't have one of the better Offenses in the nation and can be a little predictable, but it will still be a big test for the Red Wolves who have been in dominating form in the Sun Belt Conference.
An inexperienced Running Back unit has struggled to get the run established for the Knights and it will be tough to impose that on the Red Wolves Defensive Line which has been stout up front. That has come against weaker competition, but the Knights' own struggles suggests this is going to be a game that depends on McKenzie Milton at Quarter Back to make the plays to keep the chains moving.
McKenzie has not played badly at Quarter Back, but he is likely to be facing some very effective pressure from the Red Wolves Defensive Line in this one and that can see drives stall. The pressure up front has also led to Interceptions in the Secondary and the Red Wolves will feel their Defensive unit gives them a chance in this Bowl Game.
It looks like being a difficult test for the UCF Knights to run the ball, but Arkansas State might be able to establish Warren Wand which can open things up for an effective passing game. The Knights' Defensive Line has just worn down over the course of the season and they gave up some big numbers in their final three games of the season and Wand will be hoping to pick up from where other teams have left off.
Wand has had a decent season, but the Red Wolves look to get the run going to open up the pass and failing to do that in this game will make it difficult for Justice Hansen at Quarter Back to throw against a very solid Secondary. The Knights have only allowed 200 passing yards per game through the season and it will be a big upgrade in competition than what Hansen has been facing in the Sun Belt Conference.
This just feels like it will be a close game with little between these teams. The UCF Knights should have plenty of motivation having missed out on a Bowl Game last season and recovering from a 0-12 2015, but they don't score a lot of points and I can't see them blow away the Arkansas State Red Wolves and I do think the latter can make some plays on the ground to give them a chance to throw the ball successfully.
It is a raise in competition for the Red Wolves, but I will take the points here and look for the to keep this competitive.
Friday 23rd December
There have been a number of Bowl Games played over the last week but I will admit that a few of them have not really appealed at all from any angle. They have been decent games to watch, but watching is as far as it has gone for me.
The opening picks were split 2-2, but hopefully I can build on that in the remaining days on this thread before a new one is created for the 'second half' of the Bowl Games.
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs Old Dominion Monarchs Pick: Motivation is always a question mark for teams around Bowl season, and the last week has shown it can be an issue for players in the lesser Bowls too, but it shouldn't be for either of these teams competing in the Popeyes Bahamas Bowl.
The Eastern Michigan Eagles are in a Bowl game for the first time since 1987 and the Old Dominion Monarchs are in the post season for the first time ever so I expect both teams to be ready to go despite the brilliant setting they will be playing in.
The layers are favouring in the Monarchs who ended the season on a high compared with the Eagles who almost fell into the Bowl mix. The Eagles lost three of their last five games but they did enough to earn a Bowl bid, but Old Dominion have won five in a row and they have won eight of their last nine.
Old Dominion have to be feeling confident of their chances with what looks a balanced Offense taking on an Eastern Michigan Defensive unit that have had difficulties stopping the run and the pass. The Monarchs can begin by handing the ball off to Ray Lawry at Running Back who has rushed for over 1000 yards for the season and is facing an Eagles Defensive Line which has allowed 200 yards per game on the ground in their last three games and have given them up at 5.4 yards per carry.
Lawry is likely to put the Monarchs in third and manageable through the afternoon and that should give David Washington an easier day in the office at Quarter Back. Washington has avoided mistakes despite throwing for over twenty-five Touchdowns and he will feel there are gaps in the Secondary to exploit with Eastern Michigan giving up 270 passing yards per game through the course of the season. The Eagles have been able to force Interceptions, but the balance on the Old Dominion Offense means they are likely going to have to stay with them in a shoot out.
With that in mind, Eastern Michigan will be keeping their fingers crossed that Ian Eriksen, the starting Running Back, is available having been banged up in recent weeks. His absence in the last game didn't help the Eagles who are now facing an Old Dominion Defensive Line which has prided themselves on at least slowing down the run. The line of scrimmage is going to be a key in this one because it might put too much pressure on Brogan Roback at Quarter Back to make plays against a Secondary that have also shown improvement.
Roback has had a memorable season at Quarter Back, but the Monarchs have been able to build a really strong pass rush which could have success if Eastern Michigan are in third and long too often. That pressure has helped the Secondary produce some solid numbers against the pass, while Roback has not been as effective at keeping the ball out of Defenders' hands when throwing as David Washington.
That might prove to be the difference in a game where both teams will feel the Offenses can move the chains consistently through the afternoon. Extra possessions and finishing drives with Touchdowns are going to be the key to the outcome, and I do feel the Old Dominion Monarchs are more likely to win both of those factors. Credit the Eastern Michigan Eagles for their season, but the Monarchs can underline their strong season with a win by at least a Touchdown and I will back them to cover in this game.
Monday 26th December
Miami (Ohio) Redhawks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: These two teams must be surprised they are competing in a Bowl Game having had some really difficult moments in the 2016 season, but both should be motivated to perform in the St Petersburg Bowl in Florida. After a 0-6 start to the season, the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks had to run the table to reach the six wins eligibility for a Bowl, while the Mississippi State Bulldogs are a rare 5-7 team that have been invited to play.
The motivation is there with the Redhawks who are playing in a Bowl Game for the first time since 2010. For the Mississippi State Bulldogs, this Bowl Game is seen as a chance to give the young players the experience to take into the SEC next season and start rebuilding a school that has lost some big players in the last couple of years.
However this does feel like a bit of a mismatch and I think the Bulldogs are likely going to be too good for the Redhawks when it is all said and done. This is simply not a level that the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks have been used to playing and I do think that will show up the longer this game wears on and that should see the Mississippi State Bulldogs wear them down and pull away in the second half.
Nick Fitzgerald has played well at Quarter Back for the Bulldogs, although he was always going to have something of a learning curve in front of him, and he has shown he can bring a dual-threat to the field. He has been the main ball carrier for the Bulldogs, but Fitzgerald should be aided by Aeris Williams when it comes to running the ball against a Redhawks Defensive Line which may struggle to contain them.
That should ease the pass rush and open up the throwing lanes for Fitzgerald who has been making use of Fred Ross through the season in his final season with the Bulldogs. It might be a game where Fitzgerald makes use of some of the younger Receivers to build chemistry for the new season, but I expect Ross to have an impact and put the Bulldogs in a position to score plenty of points.
Gus Ragland took over the starting Quarter Back job for the Redhawks after the 0-6 start and sparked the recovery with some flawless performances from that spot. However I do think Ragland faces his most difficult task of the season despite some of the awful numbers the Bulldogs gave up in the SEC because that is a Conference that produces some of the better teams in the nation.
The key for the Miami (Ohio) Offense has to be Alonzo Smith and Kenny Young who have been able to run the ball very well for them and helped Ragland by keeping the team in third and manageable. They might be encouraged by the numbers allowed by the Bulldogs Defensive Line in recent games, but again it should be noted that was up against SEC Offensive Lines and it is going to be a big task for the Redhawks to play up that level throughout this game.
I do think Ragland, Smith and Young will have some big plays, but they may lack the consistency to continue to do that throughout the sixty minutes they need to in this game. With the added level of quality in the Mississippi State Bulldogs ranks, I think they will find a way to pull away in the second half as they make some big plays at the line of scrimmage and take advantage of some of the protection issues the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks have had.
This is a big number to cover for the SEC team, but I think they are sufficiently motivated to to that and I will back the Mississippi State Bulldogs to win this one by a wide margin.
MY PICKS: New Mexico Lobos - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Appalachian State Mountaineers + 1 Point @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Arkansas State Red Wolves + 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Old Dominion Monarchs - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Mississippi State Bulldogs - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Bowl Update (December 17-27): 2-3, - 1.19 Units
Week 14: 4-3, + 0.77 Units (7 Units Staked, + 11% Yield)
Week 13: 4-7-1, - 3.28 Units (12 Units Staked, - 27.33% Yield)
Week 12: 4-5, - 1.32 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.67% Yield)
Week 11: 9-2, + 6.28 Units (11 Units Staked, + 57.09% Yield)
Week 10: 1-7, - 6.05 Units (8 Units Staked, - 75.63% Yield)
Week 9: 3-8, - 5.23 Units (11 Units Staked, - 47.55% Yield)
Week 8: 4-5, - 1.27 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.11% Yield)
Week 7: 4-5, - 1.28 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.22% Yield)
Week 6: 7-1-1, + 5.35 Units (9 Units Staked, + 59.44% Yield)
Week 13: 4-7-1, - 3.28 Units (12 Units Staked, - 27.33% Yield)
Week 12: 4-5, - 1.32 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.67% Yield)
Week 11: 9-2, + 6.28 Units (11 Units Staked, + 57.09% Yield)
Week 10: 1-7, - 6.05 Units (8 Units Staked, - 75.63% Yield)
Week 9: 3-8, - 5.23 Units (11 Units Staked, - 47.55% Yield)
Week 8: 4-5, - 1.27 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.11% Yield)
Week 7: 4-5, - 1.28 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.22% Yield)
Week 6: 7-1-1, + 5.35 Units (9 Units Staked, + 59.44% Yield)
Week 5: 2-7-1, - 5.14 Units (10 Units Staked, - 51.40% Yield)
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.59 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.78% Yield)
Week 3: 4-6, - 2.23 Units (10 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
Week 2: 4-5, - 1.32 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.67% Yield)
Week 1: 6-5, + 0.58 Units (11 Units Staked, + 5.27% Yield)
Season 2016: 62-69-3, - 11.55 Units (134 Units Staked, - 8.62% Yield)
Season 2015: 87-77-2, + 2.77 Units (166 Units Staked, + 1.67% Yield)
Season 2014: 75-82-2, - 13.39 Units (172 Units Staked, - 7.78% Yield)
Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
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