NFL Week 16 Picks 2022 (December 22-26)

The last three weeks of the NFL season should be incredibly tense with plenty for teams to achieve.

PlayOff places, Seeding within the Conferences and Divisional races look to come down to the wire, although the weather is a factor at play over the next few days.

Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Six wins in seven games has dragged the Detroit Lions (7-7) into the Wild Card Race in the NFC and Head Coach Dan Campbell is looking for his team to maintain their push. Two big Divisional games will wrap up the season, but the Lions cannot afford to overlook any team they face down the stretch as they look to move past the Seattle Seahawks and Washington Commanders for the final NFC PlayOff place.

Winning on Saturday will put the pressure on those two immediate rivals for the post-season, especially as both Seattle and Washington have very tough road games to be played.

This is anything but an easy game for the Detroit Lions as they travel to the Carolina Panthers (5-9), a team fortunate to be playing in the NFC South which is likely going to be a Division which produces a PlayOff team with a losing record. The Panthers are only a game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a tight Division and winning it will also come with at least one home PlayOff game next month so there is plenty for the Carolina Panthers to achieve, even after a disappointing defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

It is going to be very cold at kick off on Saturday and that could be an advantage for the home team- Detroit may not come from a warm weather climate, but they are a team that play indoors and so the conditions will not be ones they particularly enjoy, although the NFC North team will not be making excuses as they try and secure an important road win.

The Detroit Lions will have made some headlines with some of the performances from the Offensive unit, but they will be thanking those on the other side of the ball for propelling this run that has pushed them to the edge of the PlayOff places. They likely will know exactly what to expect from Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers and recent weeks suggest the Detroit Lions can deal with what is going to be in front of them.

Running the ball is the key for the Panthers- they were not able to do that against Baltimore or Pittsburgh over the last month and have lost both of those games, but averaged 200 rushing yards in wins over Denver and Carolina in between those defeats. No one should be shocked by any Carolina approach which relies on the run, but the Detroit Lions Defensive Line have stiffened in recent games and I think the Lions win at the line of scrimmage.

There are passing lanes to be exploited, as even Zach Wilson showed last week, but I don't think you can trust Sam Darnold and the Panthers to really expose them. The Panthers Receiving corps isn't filled with a lot of top names and Sam Darnold is not the most accurate of Quarter Backs, while Darnold is going to be feeling a pretty fierce pass rush whenever he is left in third and long spots.

I am not expecting a huge Offensive game from Carolina, but I also think the Detroit Lions will have one or two issues moving the chains with consistency is this big Week 16 game.

All credit has to be given to Jared Goff and the Coaching staff for the improvements made by the Detroit Lions, but they will need a little more out of the run game in this one. Moving the ball against the Carolina Defensive Line is not always easy, but the Lions will want to stay in front of the marker rather than forcing Jared Goff to test a very good Secondary from third and long spots.

The Quarter Back will get more time than Sam Darnold when it comes to throwing the ball down the field thanks to the tough Detroit Offensive Line, but this does feel like a low-scoring game that could come to turnovers.

My feeling is that Dan Campbell's team will be the ones who are a little more careful with the ball and I think that will be key for the Lions as they bid for back to back road wins to keep the pressure on those above them in the NFC standings.

I have to respect the conditions and how tough they could be for the Detroit Lions, but this looks a poor match up for the 5-9 Carolina Panthers who are 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen at home. At the same time Detroit have been a covering machine this season with seven straight covers and they are 9-4 against the spread in their last thirteen road games and I do think the Lions can cover again.

Detroit haven't been favoured on the road yet this season and that is a factor that also has to be given plenty of consideration as the sense of expectation builds a different kind of pressure.

However, I do think the Lions are well Coached and they can do just enough to win and cover and keep the momentum behind them through to the final two weeks of the regular season.

Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears Pick: The weather is going to be frigid and the wind is set to get up which makes it very tough to imagine there will be a lot of successful passing in this one. The Buffalo Bills (11-3) earned a vital win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 15, which leaves them one win, or one Miami loss, from winning the AFC East.

At this stage of the season, the Buffalo Bills will be thinking much deeper than simply winning their Division as they remain in control of the Number 1 Seed in the AFC. Home field advantage through to the Super Bowl and a Bye through to the Divisional Round can be big factors in the post-season, especially in the new format of the PlayOffs, and I think that will keep the Buffalo Bills focused off a Divisional win.

Of course this has to still be considered a look-ahead spot for the Bills as they will be facing the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17, another huge Conference game that could have PlayOff implications for next month. It certainly raises some question as to why the Buffalo Bills will want to blow out the Chicago Bears (3-11) and cover the number and I am leaning towards the home underdog to come out with the spread win.

Last week the Bears pushed the Philadelphia Eagles in a five point home loss and I think the conditions should not bother the Chicago Offensive unit. Passing the ball has been secondary for the Bears this season, but Justin Fields and the rushing attack has been working very efficiently and it certainly suggests they can keep this one close.

Justin Fields has really grown into the season and the next step for his development will be the Bears bringing in some strong Receiving threats and upgrading the Offensive Line. The scrambling ability has been on display over the last several weeks, while designed runs have really worked for Justin Fields and his skill-set and I do think the Bears will be able to move the ball on the ground against the Buffalo Bills.

Last week Raheem Mostert had a big outing against the Bills Defensive Line, although that may have had something to do with the Bills respecting the passing power of the Miami Dolphins. They may be less inclined to do that this week, but Buffalo are also facing a Quarter Back with a genuine running threat, one that can make teams think again about tackling and chasing these players in a game where they may not be as focused as they have been in Conference games.

The feeling is that the Chicago Bears will have success running the ball, but the Buffalo Bills will also be pretty confident in their ability to move the ball.

He may not have the numbers of Justin Fields, but Josh Allen is more than capable of toughing it out on the ground at Quarter Back and the Bills in general should be confident in their rushing attack. The conditions might not be ideal for the pass, but they are facing a Chicago Defensive Line that has given up plenty of yards on the ground as injury and trades of key Defensive players have slowed them down.

Josh Allen is likely going to take a few more shots throwing in the Secondary than the Chicago Bears, but the conditions will make it tougher for him. He has also not been at his very best in recent games as the elbow issue from earlier in the season has perhaps been holding Allen back, and I do think this has the makings of a relatively close game as the Bears played against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15.

Being able to run the ball as they have will be key for Chicago and I think they can be backed as the home underdog with the amount of points being given to them.

Recent trends for the Chicago Bears are not very encouraging and they have lost plenty of games by wide margins, but the Buffalo Bills have not blown out a lot of teams of late. Only one of their last seven games has been won by more than an 8 point margin and I think the Bears have the hook on that number, which should be enough to at least earn a backdoor cover in the cold, cold conditions expected.

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Week 15 was a memorable one for both the Minnesota Vikings (11-3) and New York Giants (8-5-1) and they prepare for face off against one another with a real chance that this could be a Wild Card PlayOff Game next month.

The Vikings made history by overcoming a 33 point deficit on their way to beating the Indianapolis Colts at home and that is the largest deficit any team has ever recovered from to win a game in the history of the NFL. They have secured the NFC North, but the Vikings are still looking to lock down the Number 2 Seed which will mean having an opportunity to play two home PlayOff games at the very least in any run towards the Super Bowl.

For the New York Giants, late zebra interference helped them edge past the Washington Commanders and now New York are in a very strong position to make the PlayOffs. They still need a win or two to confirm a top seven finish in the NFC, and they are on a relative short week compared with the Minnesota Vikings, as well as dealing with the emotions of winning the game on the road at Washington.

There will have been plenty of emotional investment from the Vikings too, but the last home game until mid-January should mean there is a touch more to give from Minnesota.

They are a team that have perhaps been weaker than the current record suggests and I do think that will hopefully give us one or two more chances to oppose Minnesota before the end of the 2022 season, but the New York Giants are another who have overcome the numbers to produce their own record.

With that in mind, it is strange to see the Minnesota Vikings being asked to cover more than a Field Goal worth of points even though the schedule spot is arguably better for them than the New York Giants.

In recent games the Vikings have become a little one-dimensional with some struggles to run the ball as effectively as you would think with a player like Dalvin Cook at Running Back. They are going to be without Garrett Bradbury this week and that may be an issue for the Offensive Line, although I am also expecting Cook to have a stronger showing against a New York team that was being trampled by the Washington rushing attack in Week 15.

It will be a huge boost for Kirk Cousins at Quarter Back to see his team running the ball with any kind of consistency. Being in front of the marker is huge for Cousins and it will open up the Minnesota passing attack, while also making sure that the New York pass rush is just slowed down a touch.

Ultimately though, I do think the Giants pass rush will be able to make some plays that can slow down the Vikings Offensively. That was the key in holding the Commanders to 12 points last week, as well as some dubious officiating, and I do think the New York Defensive unit can give their Offense a chance to keep this one competitive.

Running the ball is the key for the New York Giants and Saquon Barkley looked like he was close to his best in the win over Washington last week. He should be able to pick up from where he left off and pound the rock successfully in this game, which in turn should make life for Daniel Jones that much more comfortable at the Quarter Back position.

Daniel Jones has had a strong season in a contract year and he has been playing well despite the injuries dominating the New York Receiving corps.

The Quarter Back is a threat to run the ball, but being in third and manageable should also mean he can attack this Minnesota Secondary which has given up plenty of yards through the air all season.

There isn't the consistency that the likes of Justin Jefferson can provide for the team on the other sidelines, but the New York Giants are doing the best they can with what they have in the Receiving unit. Darius Slayton has stepped up at times and the Giants should be able to have plenty of success Offensively, which should allow them to keep this game close on the scoreboard.

For all the successes the Minnesota Vikings have had this season, they are just 1-6-1 against the spread in their last seven Conference games, while the New York Giants are 5-1 against the spread in their last six on the road.

A backdoor cover for the Giants has to be a possibility in this game and I think getting the hook over a key number is good enough to back the road team to cover, even if they are not quite able to win this one.

Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Three road losses in a row have dented some of the confidence, but the Miami Dolphins (8-6) at least showed in the Week 15 loss at the Buffalo Bills that they can compete with the very best in the NFL. The losses to the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers, especially the Chargers, were more disappointing, but the Dolphins remain in a position where they control their path into the PlayOffs.

The AFC East race is run after the narrow defeat to the Bills, but the Dolphins will return home for this Christmas Day showdown feeling like an opportunity is in front of them. Despite needing to earn a Wild Card spot, finishing with the Number 5 Seed in the AFC would mean a game against the AFC South Divisional winner and that is one that the Miami Dolphins will believe they can win.

If they can win out, the Dolphins have every chance of earning that coveted spot, but they will want to get back to winning ways regardless if only to have some momentum to take into the post-season.

They are hosting the Green Bay Packers (6-8) on a short week, but Aaron Rodgers has helped his team win two in a row to just about stay alive in the NFC. Like the Dolphins, the Green Bay Packers are out of the NFC North Divisional race, but they still have an opportunity to sneak into the PlayOffs.

And much like the Dolphins, Aaron Rodgers knows his team need to win out if they are going to earn the Number 7 Seed in the NFC. They will finish up with back to back home games, but this looks to be the toughest test left for the Packers who have not been the kind of team we associate with Rodgers in the NFL.

Instead of being a high-octane passing Offensive unit, the Green Bay Packers have relied on their tandem at Running Back to pound the rock to move into successful positions. Both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have been very productive, but this game looks a tougher test than recent outings with the Miami Dolphins Defensive Line controlling the line of scrimmage and clamping down on the run.

Doing the same here will put some pressure on Aaron Rodgers and his Receivers, who have not always been on the same page, and I am not sure they can take advantage of some of the holes in the Miami Secondary. You can never write off Rodgers completely, but there is enough evidence this season to think it could be another inconsistent passing day and the Quarter Back is also likely to feel plenty of heat from a much improved Miami pass rush if the Packers are left in obvious passing situations.

Green Bay would love to control the line of scrimmage Offensively, but may not have a lot of success doing that. On the other hand, the Miami Offensive Line has been busting out some big holes for Raheem Mostert to exploit and I think they can pick up from where they left off against the Buffalo Bills last week.

For a number of seasons it has been clear that stopping the run has been a huge problem for the Green Bay Packers are there are going to be some big lanes for Mostert in this one. The Packers Secondary haven't played badly, but that is also down to the fact that teams have not needed to test them as much and I think this Miami Offensive unit will be able to open up the passing lanes with the grinding done on the ground.

The last three games have seen Miami produce inconsistent passing efforts, but they have been better at home all season and I think that shows up here.

For some reason Aaron Rodgers has tended to dislike playing in Florida and I think Miami will do enough to win this Christmas Day offering and cover the spread.

The Dolphins are 20-8 against the spread in their last twenty-eight home games and the Packers are just 3-7 against the spread in their last ten on the road. I think the Dolphins will get back on track Offensively with a better balance in their play-calling than Green Bay are likely to manage and it should lead to a late score to put them over the line.

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: At the start of the season, the schedule makers would have set this non-Conference game for Week 16 and expected some huge PlayOff implications on the line. Instead it has been a miserable year for both the Denver Broncos (4-10) and defending Super Bowl Champions Los Angeles Rams (4-10).

It isn't even like they have a motivation to tank down the stretch with both teams trading away First Round Draft Picks and the season cannot end quickly enough at this point.

Nathaniel Hackett perhaps needs the wins more in order to avoid a firing at the end of his first season as Head Coach of the Denver Broncos. He has been massively criticised for some of the decisions made, but you have to say it was very hard to envision Russell Wilson struggling as much as he has through the course of 2022.

After suffering a concussion in his best game of the season against the Kansas City Chiefs, Russell Wilson missed a game before being declared ready to go for this Week 16 Christmas Day game. Next week the Broncos have a rematch with Kansas City and would love to at least dent their Divisional rivals season, but even a less than fully focused Denver team should have too much for the injury hit Los Angeles Rams playing on a short week.

Injuries have crushed the Rams through the 2022 season and they were miserable in the loss to the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football. Baker Mayfield may have produced a huge drive to beat the Las Vegas Raiders just days after arriving in Los Angeles, but he was battered and bruised by the Packers and now faces a Denver Defensive unit that have played hard this season through trying circumstances.

A banged up Offensive Line is unlikely to keep the Broncos from flooding into the backfield having continued to find a strong push up front, even after trading Bradley Chubb to the Miami Dolphins. A strong Defensive Line has not given up a lot of running room and that means Mayfield is likely going to be throwing under continued duress in this one.

Cooper Kuup is a huge miss from the Receiving corps and I think the Rams will struggle to move the ball with any consistency against the Denver Defense.

The same could be said of Denver when they have the ball, even with a returning Russell Wilson, but I do think they will have enough success to win and cover here.

With the injuries suffered on this side of the ball, the Los Angeles Rams have allowed teams to have more joy in running the ball and keeping Russell Wilson in third and manageable would be a big win for Denver. They have not protected Wilson that well, but he should be able to get the ball out of his hands quickly to keep the chains moving and the Broncos are expected to be the stronger team Offensively, even with the next game on deck serving as a possible distraction.

Russell Wilson looked to be getting on the same page as his Receivers in the game against the Kansas City Chiefs so the feeling is that he will put the Broncos in a position to win on the road.

No one will doubt the Coaching edge that the Rams have in this match up, but ultimately you can't account for the injury issues and the short week and I think Denver can be backed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: Someone has to win the NFC South and it is becoming more and more likely that whichever team that is will be hosting a PlayOff game with a losing record. At the moment the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) remain a game clear in the Division and that despite losing three of their last four games, and they are in control of their own destiny with games against the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons to close out the season.

This has been an ugly season filled with mistake after mistake and the Buccaneers were punished for a terrible second half in their defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 15. Turnovers were fatal to their chances of winning the game and Tampa Bay will be kicking themselves having produced 159 yards more Offensively than the Bengals needed to do.

At least this week Tampa Bay have a chance to give their fans a delayed Christmas present by winning this game on the road when they head West to take on the Arizona Cardinals (4-10). Elimination from the PlayOffs have been confirmed for a team hit hard by injury and the Cardinals will actually be playing with a third string Quarter Back, which does not help their chances of snapping a four game losing run.

Colt McCoy went down with an early injury in Week 15 and has been ruled out so Trace McSorley will be making his first NFL start of his career with his second team in the professional game. He came in and struggled last week, but McSorley will have been working with the first team this week and ultimately cannot be any worse than the previous game.

Even with that in mind, it is going to be tough for the Quarter Back considering the lack of success the Cardinals are likely to have when it comes to running the ball. In recent games the Buccaneers Defensive Line have clamped down on the run and I do think they will be focused on containing Arizona and forcing the inexperienced Quarter Back to try and beat them through the air.

The Arizona Offensive Line has not offered a lot of pass protection so Trace McSorley is going to have to scramble around the pocket and potentially try and pick up yards with his legs. It will be difficult for him to play against an improving Tampa Bay Defensive unit and I do think some of the schemes will be designed to confuse McSorley when he does drop back to throw.

Moving the ball will be an incredible challenge for the Cardinals, but Tampa Bay have shown some signs of life on the Offensive side of the ball in recent games and should have more success. Tom Brady has been guilty of one or two mistakes, which is not like him, but he does have Receiving threats that should be able to expose the Arizona Secondary.

This game also represents a good chance for Tampa Bay to establish the run, which has been a season-long struggle for the team, and that should only aid Tom Brady that much more.

His Offensive Line will have some issues keeping the Cardinals out of the backfield, but being in front of the chains allows Tom Brady to negate the pressure with quick throws and I do think the Buccaneers will win this game.

Make no mistake, it is a very big spread considering the kind of season Tampa Bay have had, but Arizona look to be playing out the string and will be expecting a high Draft choice. The Cardinals are just 3-10 against the spread in their last thirteen at home and I do think they will have issues on both sides of the ball in this one as they play their final game in this Stadium in 2022.

It is not easy trusting the road team, but the Buccaneers can earn a rare cover in 2022 with a strong win by around ten to thirteen points here.

MY PICKS: Detroit Lions - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Chicago Bears + 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

New York Giants + 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Kansas City Chiefs - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennessee Titans - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Denver Broncos - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

NFL Week 16 Picks 2016 (December 22-26)

The Play Off participants will start taking shape in Week 16, but a number of teams will have to wait until Week 17 to confirm their own places in the post-season.

Week 15 was a good one for the picks with a 6-1 record meaning the last few weeks have been decent and got this season moving in the right direction.

I will head straight into the Week 16 NFL Picks in this thread for the games that will mainly taking place over the Christmas weekend.


Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick: At this stage of the NFL season, I do tend to find the layers are factoring in 'must win' situations into the spreads. That can make things more difficult, but I am very comfortable in this opening pick from the games this weekend when the Atlanta Falcons head to the Carolina Panthers with the NFC South Division in their own grasp.

The Falcons currently lead the Division by a game from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and they are facing a Panthers team who have dominated this Division in recent seasons, but who won't be playing in the Play Offs this season. It has been a disappointing 2016 for Carolina who lost the Super Bowl in February and are just 6-8 for the season, but anyone who thinks this team has given up should be watching how the Carolina Panthers have been competing since their blow out defeat in Seattle.

The Atlanta Falcons have won three of their last four games which has seen them maintain control of the NFC South, but beating the LA Rams and San Francisco 49ers is not going to impress too many people. The Falcons can win the Division by winning this game and Tampa Bay losing in New Orleans, but winning this game is going to be far from straight forward with Matt Ryan likely having to do without Julio Jones this week.

Ryan brings in one of the most potent pass Offenses in the NFL so they should feel confident even if Jones is not in the line up at Wide Receiver. It would be a surprise if the Falcons can't move the chains through the air against a Panthers team who have given up some big numbers with their younger Secondary struggling. Ryan also has the benefit of throwing short passes to the likes of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman coming out of the backfield, but Carolina have been able to turn the ball over in their last couple of games and do get some impressive pass rush pressure up front.

Both Freeman and Coleman should be able to establish the run too, but it should be noted that the Panthers Defensive Line has been better at home and might be able to make some plays in the backfield in this one.

Overall you have to think the Falcons are going to move the chains, but I think Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers can do the same on the other side of the ball. Newton played very well in the win at Washington on Monday Night Football, but this is a short week for the Quarter Back who continues to get next to zero protection from the referees.

Jonathan Stewart's running on Monday Night was very good too and the Panthers Offensive Line should be able to establish the run in this one. That does make things easier for Newton as it helps his Line in blocking when he does drop back to throw the ball against an Atlanta team who have had players like Vic Beasley come alive in recent weeks.

Giving Newton time should mean he is able to expose a Secondary that hasn't been that good this season and is missing Desmond Trufant who is the best Corner Back on the roster. With Greg Olsen, Ted Ginn Jr and Kelvin Benjamin on the Carolina Receiving options, the Panthers should have a lot of success moving the chains in this one too and they can upset their Divisional rivals.

This has the feeling of a game that will see both teams moving up and down the field, but the key is going to be which of them is able to win the turnover battle. Either way, this looks a lot of points to be giving to a home underdog who aren't playing that badly and who would love to beat a Divisional rival and attempt to spoil their season.

The short week is a concern for the Carolina Panthers, but they have beaten Atlanta in three of the last four games here and covered in each one. Getting the full Field Goal worth of points could be huge and I will take the Panthers here.


Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears Pick: The Washington Redskins were in control of their own destiny when taking to the field on Monday Night Football, but they were pretty terrible in a home defeat to the Carolina Panthers. The Redskins have to know they need to win out the remaining two weeks to have a chance of getting back into the Play Offs and the layers are expecting the 'must win' nature of this game to entice people to back the road favourite.

That is the only reason I can give for the Chicago Bears to not only be a home underdog, but be given more than a Field Goal worth of points in this one. It is going to be much warmer than Week 15 at Soldier Field, but it still doesn't make sense for the Washington Redskins to be asked to cover just a single point fewer than the Green Bay Packers who have been in much better recent form than Washington.

It also fails to take into consideration how competitive the Chicago Bears have been and I do like the home underdog in this one.

Matt Barkley has really impressed in his time as the starting Quarter Back for the Chicago Bears and he looks to be in a position where he will be competing for the starting role next season. Jay Cutler is set to move on, but Chicago are in line for a high pick in the Draft which could be used on a Quarter Back to take over as the franchise one going forward, although a strong end to the season might see Barkley given the chance to lead the Bears into the 2017 season.

It has been good news for Barkley that he has had the support of Jordan Howard at Running Back who has found the holes and hit them with speed. Howard would have seen the runs that Jonathan Stewart had in the Monday Night Football game against Washington and has to feel he can establish himself in this one to ease the pressure on his Quarter Back.

That will also mean Barkley is given the time to make his throws as Washington's pass rush perhaps takes a step longer to get to him with the run game working. With Alshon Jefferey back in the Wide Receiver Number 1 role, Barkley can make plays against this Secondary which has struggled outside of Josh Norman and Chicago can make some big plays.

The more important factor for me to want to back the Chicago Bears is how well the Defensive unit have been playing. However there are some concerns that 'Fat' Rob Kelley could have a huge outing as the Bears Defensive Line has just had a few problems shutting down the run of late and were bamboozled by Ty Montgomery last week in the loss to the Packers.

If Washington can run the ball, it might give Kirk Cousins the chance to produce a bounce back game after struggling for the most part in Week 15. Jordan Reed's limitations have really hurt the passing game while Cousins could be under intense pressure from the Chicago pass rush if they are in third and long situations. That pressure has seen the Secondary play well and the Bears might have some opportunities to turn the ball over and give them a chance to stay within this number at the very least.

The Bears are playing their final home game of the season, but they were beaten by Washington here last December. That loss came by just three points and I will back the Bears to cover the spread this season with more than a Field Goal start.


Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Who would have thought the Minnesota Vikings would be on the verge of exiting the Play Off race in Week 16 of the season after beginning the 2016 campaign with a 5-0 record? Injuries on both sides of the ball have taken their toll on the team and a blow out loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15 means the Vikings will be out of the running with another loss in Week 16.

They could have done with facing the Green Bay Packers a few weeks ago when it looked like the Packers had lost their way, but a four game winning run now makes them favourites to win the NFC North.

Aaron Rodgers did say the team could go 6-0 and run the table and it looks like the banged up Quarter Back could be right. He is dealing with some injury issues, but Rodgers has been playing very well and is boosted by Ty Montgomery finally giving Green Bay a running game worth talking about. Montgomery is likely to have the majority of carries against the Minnesota Vikings Defensive Line which has been banged up and begun to give up more rushing yards than they would be comfortable with. This should mean Green Bay are in third and manageable for much of the afternoon, a position from which Rodgers should thrive.

Minnesota also miss Harrison Smith in this one which is a huge blow in the middle of the field. Aaron Rodgers showed he can exploit those kind of holes when the Seattle Seahawks pitched up without Earl Thomas and the Quarter Back should have a very nice outing as long as his Receivers can hold onto the ball. It is warmer at Lambeau Field than the conditions Green Bay faced in Chicago in Week 15 so I expect the Packers to move the chains with some consistency.

On the other side of the ball it looks like Adrian Peterson's return to the Minnesota Vikings has come too late. He didn't find a lot of room in the blow out loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15 and suffered a setback which may mean Peterson is not on the field for this vital game in Green Bay. While some teams have been able to exploit the Green Bay Defensive Line on the ground, Minnesota have not run the ball effectively all season and without Peterson it will be tough for the Vikings.

They might make some big plays on the ground, but mainly this is going to come down to Sam Bradford and not many would back him in a potential shoot out with Aaron Rodgers. Bradford had been put under pressure by his Offensive Line when dropping back to pass and that should be the case again in this one if Minnesota are in third and long at any time in the afternoon. While I do think Bradford can manage some drives, he has to be careful of the way Green Bay have turned the ball over especially if Bradford is being asked to push to stay with the Packers.

Those turnovers could be critical when it comes to the spread and I like the home favourite to cover in the form they have been in. The Packers are scoring plenty of points while the Defensive unit have been better during the four game winning run which should have success against the Minnesota Vikings who are used to playing indoors at this time of the season.

The Vikings are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven visits to Green Bay and I can't see their banged up Defensive unit keeping them in this game. I think the Packers win by at least a converted Touchdown in this one and move onto the 'winner takes all' game at the Detroit Lions in Week 17.


Indianapolis Colts @ Oakland Raiders Pick: The Oakland Raiders might have clinched their Play Off berth for the first time since 2002, but they have plenty left to play for. Winning the AFC West and finishing with a Wild Card is a huge difference maker in the Play Offs- doing the former means a likely Wild Card Round bye and at least one home Play Off game, the latter means playing in the Wild Card Round and likely needing three road wins to make the Super Bowl.

Getting some rest would be important for the Raiders, especially for Quarter Back Derek Carr, but the Raiders are only a game ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs and will lose the tiebreaker if they finish with the same record as the Chiefs. In Week 16 both Oakland and Kansas City are facing desperate opponents with the Indianapolis Colts heading to California off the back of an impressive win over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 15.

The Wild Card spots are beyond the Colts, but they are only a game behind in the race for the AFC South Division title and winning out may give them a chance to make the Play Offs although they do need plenty of help. Andrew Luck and company can't think beyond this game and I think getting the hook on the start on the handicap looks very appealing in backing the road underdog this week.

Luck has been under pressure to make the plays, but Frank Gore could have a big game in his return to the Bay area having previously starred for the San Francisco 49ers. Gore isn't playing behind a really strong Offensive Line that paves the ways for big yardage, but he can do enough to keep the Oakland Raiders Defensive Line honest and rip off some big gains from time to time to keep the pressure off the franchise Quarter Back.

Running the ball has helped the Indianapolis Offensive Line protect Andrew Luck, although they will be tested by some fierce pass rush pressure Oakland can generate. The Secondary have also been playing well in recent games, although Luck is clearly the best Quarter Back they have faced since facing Cam Newton in Week 12 who had a very big outing against them.

As long as Luck can avoid the Interceptions, Indianapolis can move the chains and have success in this one and give themselves a chance to win this game outright.

That might be more of a slight chance if Carr is still banged up at Quarter Back for the Oakland Raiders which has made it difficult for him to take the ball under Center. It has had a knock on effect on how well Oakland have been able to run the ball and the Colts Defensive Line has been playing well in recent games which suggests they can put the pressure on the Quarter Back to make the plays to beat them.

The injured finger on the throwing hand of Derek Carr has most definitely had an impact on the passing game in recent games which is a concern going against an improving Colts Secondary. The Colts can get some pressure up front, although Carr is still able to get the ball out of his hand quickly, but the injury has had an impact on the accuracy. Michael Crabtree has been banged up which means teams can focus on taking away Amari Cooper and it looks like it might be a tough outing for the Oakland Raiders on the Offensive side of the ball.

That coupled with Indianapolis' chances to move the chains makes the road underdog appealing getting more than the Field Goal start in this one. Andrew Luck is capable of throwing the Colts into contention and anything more than a Field Goal worth of points would have appealed to me in this one. I will take the points with this road underdog and look for them to keep things close at the very least.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans Pick: The Houston Texans are still in command of the AFC South going into the final two games of the 2016 regular season and all despite persisting with the worst starting Quarter Back in the NFL in Brock Osweiler. Well Bill O'Brien had enough as the Texans struggled in the home game with the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 15 and yanked Osweiler onto the bench and brought in Tom Savage as the new Quarter Back.

Savage played well enough to be given the starting role the rest of the season and Osweiler looks an incredible mistake made by the Texans. However I do think this move has come at the right time for the Texans and I think they will respond by producing a big game in Week 16 when hosting the Cincinnati Bengals who are out of contention in the Play Offs.

I really thought the Bengals would be a significant underdog in this one so getting the points with the home team looks very appealing to me. This is not a great spot for the Bengals who lost a big home game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15 and finish off with a chance to ruin the Baltimore Ravens season next week in their final home game of a disappointing season.

With that in mind, I am not sure how much Cincinnati will get themselves up for this game even if the Houston Texans have beaten them twice in the Play Offs in recent memory. The Texans have done that with worse Quarter Backs than Tom Savage and I can see the entire team rallying around their new leader and producing a big performance in the late game on Christmas Eve.

A bigger problem for Houston than the Quarter Back position might be the injury to Lamar Miller which could see the Running Back miss out in Week 16. His absence would be a blow because the Texans would have found a way to get Miller established and thus open up the passing lanes for Savage at Quarter Back and keep the Bengals off balance. Alfred Blue has deputised for Arian Foster in the past and isn't a bad replacement, but Miller's absence would still be felt.

However Savage has also shown he is more willing to throw further down the field than Osweiler was and that should mean a reawakening for DeAndre Hopkins at Wide Receiver. Savage has to be aware that the Bengals Secondary have played a little better in recent games and have been capable of turning the ball over, but I do think the Quarter Back can have a solid outing with his Offensive Line opening up some running lanes too.

In what has been a tough season for the Bengals, there are little signs they are going to be feeling sorry for themselves and instead will produce a big effort in their remaining games. This does look a bad schedule spot for them though and it is up to Andy Dalton to try and help them compete. It is a big test for Dalton who might be coming into the game without Jeremy Hill at Running Back, although the return of AJ Green could not come fast enough.

The Bengals have struggled to run the ball anyway this season and now they are down to a third string Running Back with Giovani Bernard and Hill likely to be absent. Rex Burkhead could be a decent Back at this level and will get the majority of the carries, but the Houston Defensive Line will feel they can lock him down and force Dalton to take to the air to beat them.

Even that will be a test for Dalton despite the return of Green at Wide Receiver. While the Texans haven't been able to get a lot of pressure on the Quarter Back, they have done enough to give their Secondary a chance to lock down and Houston simply haven't given up a lot of yards through the air over the course of the season. I do think Dalton can have some success with the Receivers he has, but the Texans will feel they can put the Offense in a strong position to win this game and I do tend to lean towards that unit winning this battle on this side of the ball.

Turnovers are hard to judge and has to be the biggest concern for an inexperienced Quarter Back in Tom Savage, although it isn't as if Brock Osweiler was producing clean games. His threat to throw down the field should open things up for the Offense and I do think the Texans are facing Cincinnati at the right time and can win this game. The players will know they are not being believed in as the home underdog and I think they can produce a big effort and I will take the point on offer.


Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: There is still a lingering hope for the Denver Broncos that they can make the Play Offs in the defence of their Super Bowl crown, but they have to win out and get help. That is surprising when you think the Broncos can reach 10-6 with two wins, but that has been the strength of the AFC this season.

The Broncos will recognise that in their own Division where they are third in the standings behind the Oakland Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs who they visit on Christmas Day. The Chiefs can still win the AFC West if they can finish with the same record as the Raiders, but they do trail by one game although still in a very strong position to at least finish with a Wild Card spot.

Winning the Division is obviously still the target for the Chiefs so the home loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 15 looks like one that will hurt. Now they need to win out and hope Oakland lose at least one more time, but the Chiefs can't overlook the threat the Denver Broncos bring into this game despite the fact they have lost three of their last four games.

The problem the Broncos have faced all season is being able to run the ball effectively which is the key to Gary Kubiak's Offensive game plan. The injury to CJ Anderson hurt, but Devontae Booker hasn't been good enough and so Justin Forsett has been brought in. Forsett will have the majority of the carries in this one and there is an opportunity for him to get the run established considering some of the problems Kansas City have had in stopping the run, but it will be tough unless Trevor Siemian gives them a reason to drop more men into coverage.

Siemian hasn't been helped by an Offensive Line that has had some real difficulties in protection and who were eaten up by Justin Houston in the first game a few weeks ago. It will be a tougher night to throw with the conditions as they are set to be anyway, but Siemian has at least been smart enough to know that punting the ball isn't a loss with the Defense on his side and that has meant avoiding the big turnovers which can be costly.

He has some top Receivers that can make plays if the conditions allow for better throwing conditions in the second half though and Siemian had success when these teams met earlier in the season in a game which Denver should really have won.

Running the ball looks like it is going to be very important in the conditions and Kansas City will feel they can do that even against this stout Denver Defensive Line. There have been some improvements in the yard per carries, but the Broncos have given up 156 yards per game on the ground over their last three games. The Chiefs will look to pound the ball to keep the Offense in third and manageable spots throughout this game and they won't go too far from the game plan in the conditions.

Spencer Ware will be the bigger name in the contest than Alex Smith at Quarter Back, and it will be tough for Smith to get anything done consistently if Ware is not running the ball. The Denver Defensive unit have been brilliant in the last few weeks and the Secondary have been taking away the ball from the opponents while scoring Touchdowns to help the Offensive unit out. That came to a head last week when there was an argument that almost led to physical repercussions between the Defense and Offense after the loss to the New England Patriots which has put the Broncos on the brink of seeing their season come to an end.

Smith is clever enough with the ball to avoid the Interceptions, but he will be challenged in these conditions as much as Siemian will. It is going to be the turnovers that decide the game, but I do think we will see another close game between these Divisional rivals. The Broncos have won on their last four visits to Arrowhead Stadium and they moved the ball much better when these teams met earlier in the season, earning more than 190 total yards than the Chiefs.

The Special Teams play from the Kansas City Chiefs likely gives them the edge, but I would be surprised if this is a game settled by more than a Field Goal and I will take the road underdog with the points.

MY PICKS: Carolina Panthers + 3 Points @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Houston Texans + 1 Point @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)