The Capital One Cup took centre stage during the week, while the European Leagues had a full schedule of games as their later start than the English Premier League means they are playing catch up in terms of number of games played going into the second international break.
That international break will be after the next round of Premier League games played in early October as the European Championships fills sixteen of the twenty-four places that are up for grabs in France next year.
I had a few comments out of the last weekend's football including Diego Costa, Anthony Martial and North East football troubles which can be read here.
The picks so far this season have been just missing the bit of luck they need which was highlighted by Bournemouth and Sunderland last week where two of the three goals I had predicted were scored in the first nine minutes. Some poor finishing and refereeing prevented the third goal being scored and that means the picks for September are narrowly in the red.
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City Pick: If this game had been played two weeks ago, I am convinced Manchester City would have been a much shorter price to win at White Hart Lane in the form that both themselves and Tottenham Hotspur had been in.
The losses to Juventus and West Ham United would have knocked some confidence from Manchester City, or at least inspired the opponents, and Tottenham Hotspur have also improved since then. Back to back Premier League wins has Spurs moving in the right direction, but they have been tight wins and I am not sure there is enough character in the team to recover if they were to fall behind.
I can't doubt the talent that Tottenham Hotspur have, but they do look short of the top teams and Mauricio Pochettino hasn't finishing building the squad to his own taste. While they will give Manchester City something to think about with some pacy players in the forward line, I don't know how the Spurs defence is going to cope with what Manchester City can throw at them the other way.
If David Silva is passed fit, Manchester City should have enough creativity to open up the Tottenham Hotspur defence and I do think they have enjoyed the space that the home team offer them in their visits. It was an impressive win for Spurs over Crystal Palace last weekend, but I think the level of opponent increases again and Manchester City have been scoring plenty of goals away from home to think they can come through with a victory here.
Leicester City v Arsenal Pick: How many people would have predicted that Leicester City versus Arsenal would be a top five match up after six games in the Premier League had been played? That is the surprising situation going into the weekend, although Leicester City have had to battle back from 0-2 deficits in their last two Premier League games to remain unbeaten.
One of those came at the KP Stadium when Leicester City didn't just come back from 0-2 down to Aston Villa, but they actually won the game 3-2. Character is not to be questioned, while Leicester City have the pace in the forward areas that is likely to give any team in England problems on their day.
This is a confident team that is clearly having a slight edge when it comes to fitness over opponents with the team finishing strongly in their last four Premier League games and being forced to come from behind in each one. The fact they have done that to remain unbeaten is a real testament to the work being done on the training ground, but three of their last four Premier League games have ended in draws while Leicester City needed extra time to beat West Ham United in the Capital One Cup.
Going behind to Arsenal is a different story than going behind to Aston Villa or Stoke City and I wouldn't fancy the Leicester City chances of recovering that deficit this weekend.
However, they might be able to take advantage if Arsenal are not fully focused considering The Gunners have a must win Champions League game against Olympiacos in just three days time. Defensively there have been some problems for Leicester City and I expect Arsenal will exploit some of those, but this is a team that is also scoring plenty of goals.
It would be a big surprise if both teams don't score on Saturday and this has all the makings of a game that will feature goals. This could easily feature as many as four goals with the way Leicester City have been attacking and defending and the natural way Arsenal approach games, but I will simply look for at least three goals to be shared out this week.
Liverpool v Aston Villa Pick: Liverpool and Aston Villa have both had a difficult time in recent games and there are going to be plenty of nerves and lots of tension in this fixture on Saturday. Both teams are desperate for the three points to ease some of the tension that exists at both clubs and that is going to make this a fascinating watch.
Tim Sherwood is not under pressure in his position as manager, but Aston Villa won't want to see another relegation battle develop in the coming months. He has made a lot of signings and there have been a few goings in the summer so the expectation is that Sherwood will be given the time to turn things around even if the immediate results don't pick up.
The same can't be said for Brendan Rodgers who has seen the likes of Carlo Ancelotti and Jurgen Klopp linked with the top job at Anfield in the last few days. A home draw with Norwich City has extended a poor turn in form and the two wins Liverpool opened the season with feel like they are a lifetime ago.
Liverpool haven't always played badly, but they have struggled to get the consistency in the final third, although a return of Daniel Sturridge could be huge for them. Christian Benteke might not be able to play against his former club, but that might work for Rodgers who can use Sturridge in his natural position and return to the kind of game many of these Liverpool players are more comfortable playing.
This has been something of a bogey fixture for Liverpool in recent seasons, winning just 1 of their last 6 at Anfield against Aston Villa and losing to them last season. Pressure does a funny thing to teams so it won't be easy for Liverpool, although Aston Villa's poor defensive record should give Liverpool a chance to earn the three points.
It is a 'must win' game for Liverpool which also produces funny results, but I think they can do that this weekend.
Manchester United v Sunderland Pick: I really don't know how many more defeats Dick Advocaat can take as manager of Sunderland before either he decides to give someone else a chance of the board makes that decision for him.
After seeing his Sunderland team beaten easily at the hands of Bournemouth and Manchester City during the week, the next two League games at Manchester United and at home against West Ham United are huge for Advocaat before the international break.
Two more losses might see Sunderland cut ties with their Dutch manager and this week he faces a compatriot in the opposite dug-out who was very impressed with the character Manchester United showed in winning 2-3 at Southampton last week.
Louis Van Gaal will be pleased that his side have begun to respond by scoring goals after a fairly slow start in front of goal and back to back Premier League games with three goals scored will please the manager. There is a real possibility that Manchester United can challenge for the Premier League title, but we will know more about them at the end of October once they have played Arsenal, Everton and Manchester City.
Those three games upcoming means Manchester United can't afford to drop points on Saturday and I don't think they will do that. Even the big Champions League game against Wolfsburg is played on Wednesday so there is enough recovery time for Manchester United ahead of that to ensure they are fully focused on the task at hand.
With the goals flowing again and Sunderland looking a mess at the back, I can see Manchester United reaching the three goal mark for the third League game in a row. This is a game I am expecting Manchester United to dominate and put that domination on the scoreboard with a confidence boosting win to take into the Champions League game next week.
Stoke City v Bournemouth Pick: The story out of Stoke City's home draw with Leicester City was the home team were as good in the first half as they were bad in the second and that has to be a concern for Mark Hughes. No one expected Stoke City to be involved in the relegation scrap this season, but they will be a little nervous and looking to finally get the first League win on the board to build some momentum.
The longer they wait for that win, the more nervousness spreads around the squad and it becomes a vicious circle which can be hard to get out of. A home game with Bournemouth is the kind of match that Stoke City would be expecting to win and they will be given the chance to play their game against a team that likes to get the ball down themselves.
It could produce a pretty good game for the neutrals as both Stoke City and Bournemouth have shown they are perhaps better going forward than they have been defensively. That is especially the case for Bournemouth who have found goals at this level, but have struggled at the other end with the clean sheet against Sunderland the first of the season in the Premier League.
Even that clean sheet came thanks to a couple of poor refereeing decisions and I expect Stoke City to create chances as they did against Leicester City.
However, it is the nerves of trying to put the first win on the board that should give Bournemouth a chance to get amongst the goals themselves and I do think both teams will score in this one. The last two Bournemouth away games in the Premier League have produced at least three goals and Stoke City showed last week against Leicester City that they are capable of scoring goals while still a little unsure at the back.
At odds against, backing at least three goals looks to be the call.
West Ham United v Norwich City Pick: I don't think there will be too many teams that win at Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City this season, but West Ham United have done that in their first three away games in the Premier League already. You can't take away home impressive some of those performances have been, but Slaven Bilic will be hoping to keep that form going at Upton Park where they have lost 2 of their 3 League games.
The start of that was a 2-0 win over Newcastle United a couple of weeks ago and West Ham United will certainly put the pressure on Norwich City, but they can't take this game for granted.
Despite returning to the Premier League this season, Norwich City have shown they are capable of mixing with teams at this level with some decent results through the first two months of the campaign. A 1-1 draw at Liverpool showed that Norwich City will be tough to beat for any team at the moment, but West Ham United have pace and power in forward areas and can prove too good.
The Hammers have played well against Norwich City at home in recent years and did win their last League game against them at Upton Park two years ago. This game is going to be all about making a positive start as they did against Newcastle United because the counter attack is definitely a tactic that suits West Ham United more than having to do the consistent pressing.
That is part of the reason they have been so much more effective away from home yet have lost home games against Leicester City and Bournemouth. Those losses will give Norwich City confidence, but West Ham United look a decent price at odds against to win this weekend.
Newcastle United v Chelsea Pick: Go back ten days and all the stories were about the pressure that Jose Mourinho was under at Stamford Bridge, but three consecutive wins over three competitions have eased those tensions. It doesn't mean Chelsea can exhale now as they continue to try and build up some steam to move up the Premier League table as Mourinho takes his side to St James' Park where he has yet to win as a manager.
The Blues have lost their last two visits to St James' Park and this is clearly a bogey ground for Mourinho, although it is hard to see how Newcastle United lift themselves after the knocks they have taken over the last month. All the positives of the beginning of the Steve McClaren reign are gone and Mourinho was sympathetic to the former England manager who is beginning to feel the pressure at Newcastle United.
Of course the new signings made in the summer means there is going to be a transition period for Newcastle United, but the fans expected much more than being 19th in the League table after half a dozen games. Going out of the League Cup to a side from the Championship and seeing that result drop Newcastle United to a 3 game losing run at home is beginning to turn St James' Park into anything other than the fortress it should be.
A lack of goals is a problem that McClaren has to fix, although Chelsea haven't exactly been watertight for much of the season, and it is hard to see where Newcastle United go from here. A home game with Chelsea followed by a trip to Manchester City might leave McClaren in a nervy spot during the two week international break and it is going to be tough for them to raise their game on Saturday.
Players can be motivated by the fact they are playing the Champions and they have beaten Chelsea twice in a row here, but I think Mourinho's side might have turned a corner. They haven't played too many top teams in their 3 game winning run, but Chelsea look confident although the absence of Diego Costa is a blow.
There are still players capable of winning this game for Chelsea although they look short enough considering recent results in this part of the North East. I do think Chelsea have looked like they have got some defensive organisation back and the fans might just put too much pressure on the home side to get anything consistent going in the final third. Newcastle United have only scored one goal in their last three games at home and I think Chelsea can find their way to the three points while keeping a clean sheet this weekend.
MY PICKS: Manchester City @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leicester City-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Stoke City-Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
West Ham United @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.88 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
September Update: 19-22-2, - 0.88 Units (80.5 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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Friday, 25 September 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (September 25th)
When Evgeny Donskoy failed to cover in the opening match on Thursday from the four picks I had made, I was hoping it wasn't going to be the mirror image of Wednesday when all three picks had produced winners.
Thankfully my hopes came true as Nicolas Mahut, Philipp Kohlschreiber and Gilles Simon did the business to make a good week start to turn into a very good week.
We have reached the Quarter Finals in the various tournaments played this week, while the tournament in Guangzhou is in the Semi Finals, and that means there aren't as many options for the picks.
However, there are four picks I like from the matches to be played in the five tournaments reaching the business end this week.
Caroline Wozniacki + 2.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Caroline Wozniacki is the Number 1 Seed in Tokyo this week, but I don't think anyone would criticise me for saying Angelique Kerber is the form player going into the match.
These two are well accustomed to facing each other with this being the eleventh match in the series and it is Kerber who holds a narrow lead. She won the sole meeting between the players in 2015, although Wozniacki might be disappointed she couldn't win a match where she won the first set.
There are some real similarities with the way both players approach matches- both rely on their movement to make a lot of defensive plays that can frustrate opponents, although I think Kerber is more capable of getting on the offensive. Wozniacki has tried to bring in more aggression to her own game and it did reap rewards in 2014 when she reached the US Open Final, but finding that level consistently has been difficult.
With neither player dominating behind serve, this has all the makings of a match that will go deep into a third set after a huge number of breaks of serve for each player. It was Kerber who was better at the big moments when they played in the Semi Final here two years ago, but it was a tight match which was won in straight sets.
I don't think either player has it that easy in this one and winning a set should give Wozniacki every chance to at least cover this number if she can't go on and earn the Semi Final place.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 3.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: It is tournaments like this one where Karolina Pliskova has picked up her Ranking points to move up to World Number 11, a stunningly high position for a player that didn't get past the Second Round in any of the four Grand Slams this season.
She is two places above Agnieszka Radwanska in the World Rankings, although I also think the Pole is a player that might find it hard to rediscover the form that took her close to World Number 1. Her style has been figured out by opponents and anyone who can continuously hit through the court no longer has to make as many balls as in the past to get past Radwanska.
It feels silly to say a 26 year old has 'lost a step' but the defensive play in Radwanska's game might have suffered from a bid to become more aggressive on the court. Her previous style always made her too good for most players, but the best of the best could hit hard enough and consistently enough to beat her.
2015 has been something of a lost year for Radwanska in that regards, but she can have a strong end and I do think she can frustrate Pliskova. For as much as I have admired some of the Pliskova results, there are too many let downs in her game and she can be pretty terrible when serving ineffectively.
I expect Radwanska to return enough balls to start playing on Pliskova's mind and extracting errors from her as the match wears on. Radwanska has never lost to Pliskova on the professional Tour and she has won each set they have competed, a run I think she continues in a 64, 63 win.
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 games v Denis Istomin: While I do think the hard courts are still a surface on which Dominic Thiem is learning, playing indoors is something that I think he appreciates as it gives him time to really get his rhythm together and hit through the ball with confidence.
It won't be an easy match against Denis Istomin in the Quarter Final, but Thiem was comfortably getting the better of him when they met at the US Open and I am looking for him to frank that form.
Both have had good wins this week to build some confidence, but Istomin has needed three sets to win both matches he has played and that will have taken something out of him physically and emotionally. Those matches come off the back of Davis Cup action against the United States when Istomin had to play two Singles rubbers and was involved in long matches in both.
He can be very good at times which makes Istomin dangerous, but there are other occasions when he is pretty terrible and looks like he hasn't played tennis before. If he serves well he can get some confidence for this match, but I think Thiem is just a little too good and this is the kind of match I expect a player that is moving up the World Rankings to be winning at this stage of his career.
After a battling first set, I am looking for Thiem to move through 76, 63.
Philipp Kohlschreiber + 2.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: This looks the best Quarter Final of the day in any of the ATP events that are taking place on Friday and one in which the underdog Philipp Kohlschreiber might be under-rated. I have said before that Kohlschreiber is on his way down the mountain when it comes to his career, but he is still a savvy veteran that can give Stan Wawrinka something to think about.
To be honest this is a strange tournament for Wawrinka to place in his schedule after the US Open and then playing Davis Cup and I do question how much motivation he has for a deep run. He had to battle to beat Dustin Brown in the Second Round on Thursday as Wawrinka eventually moved through in three sets, but someone like Kohlschreiber might have a little bit more belief to go on and win this match.
Brown isn't someone lacking belief, but he is a flashy player that plays a lot of low percentage tennis, while Kohlschreiber will pick his shots a lot better. That can make a huge difference in a match like this which will be tight and even what looks like a small number of games can be a huge difference maker.
There is every chance this match goes into a third set because Wawrinka is never too far away from throwing in a really sloppy service game or two, while I am not convinced that Kohlschreiber won't do the same. Again, I can't shake the feeling this is strange scheduling from Wawrinka and whether the motivation is there to fight back if he gets into a hole and I like Kohlschreiber with the games to keep this close if not actually find the upset.
MY PICKS: Caroline Wozniacki + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanksa - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-1, + 9.10 Units (14 Units Staked, + 65% Yield)
Thankfully my hopes came true as Nicolas Mahut, Philipp Kohlschreiber and Gilles Simon did the business to make a good week start to turn into a very good week.
We have reached the Quarter Finals in the various tournaments played this week, while the tournament in Guangzhou is in the Semi Finals, and that means there aren't as many options for the picks.
However, there are four picks I like from the matches to be played in the five tournaments reaching the business end this week.
Caroline Wozniacki + 2.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Caroline Wozniacki is the Number 1 Seed in Tokyo this week, but I don't think anyone would criticise me for saying Angelique Kerber is the form player going into the match.
These two are well accustomed to facing each other with this being the eleventh match in the series and it is Kerber who holds a narrow lead. She won the sole meeting between the players in 2015, although Wozniacki might be disappointed she couldn't win a match where she won the first set.
There are some real similarities with the way both players approach matches- both rely on their movement to make a lot of defensive plays that can frustrate opponents, although I think Kerber is more capable of getting on the offensive. Wozniacki has tried to bring in more aggression to her own game and it did reap rewards in 2014 when she reached the US Open Final, but finding that level consistently has been difficult.
With neither player dominating behind serve, this has all the makings of a match that will go deep into a third set after a huge number of breaks of serve for each player. It was Kerber who was better at the big moments when they played in the Semi Final here two years ago, but it was a tight match which was won in straight sets.
I don't think either player has it that easy in this one and winning a set should give Wozniacki every chance to at least cover this number if she can't go on and earn the Semi Final place.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 3.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: It is tournaments like this one where Karolina Pliskova has picked up her Ranking points to move up to World Number 11, a stunningly high position for a player that didn't get past the Second Round in any of the four Grand Slams this season.
She is two places above Agnieszka Radwanska in the World Rankings, although I also think the Pole is a player that might find it hard to rediscover the form that took her close to World Number 1. Her style has been figured out by opponents and anyone who can continuously hit through the court no longer has to make as many balls as in the past to get past Radwanska.
It feels silly to say a 26 year old has 'lost a step' but the defensive play in Radwanska's game might have suffered from a bid to become more aggressive on the court. Her previous style always made her too good for most players, but the best of the best could hit hard enough and consistently enough to beat her.
2015 has been something of a lost year for Radwanska in that regards, but she can have a strong end and I do think she can frustrate Pliskova. For as much as I have admired some of the Pliskova results, there are too many let downs in her game and she can be pretty terrible when serving ineffectively.
I expect Radwanska to return enough balls to start playing on Pliskova's mind and extracting errors from her as the match wears on. Radwanska has never lost to Pliskova on the professional Tour and she has won each set they have competed, a run I think she continues in a 64, 63 win.
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 games v Denis Istomin: While I do think the hard courts are still a surface on which Dominic Thiem is learning, playing indoors is something that I think he appreciates as it gives him time to really get his rhythm together and hit through the ball with confidence.
It won't be an easy match against Denis Istomin in the Quarter Final, but Thiem was comfortably getting the better of him when they met at the US Open and I am looking for him to frank that form.
Both have had good wins this week to build some confidence, but Istomin has needed three sets to win both matches he has played and that will have taken something out of him physically and emotionally. Those matches come off the back of Davis Cup action against the United States when Istomin had to play two Singles rubbers and was involved in long matches in both.
He can be very good at times which makes Istomin dangerous, but there are other occasions when he is pretty terrible and looks like he hasn't played tennis before. If he serves well he can get some confidence for this match, but I think Thiem is just a little too good and this is the kind of match I expect a player that is moving up the World Rankings to be winning at this stage of his career.
After a battling first set, I am looking for Thiem to move through 76, 63.
Philipp Kohlschreiber + 2.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: This looks the best Quarter Final of the day in any of the ATP events that are taking place on Friday and one in which the underdog Philipp Kohlschreiber might be under-rated. I have said before that Kohlschreiber is on his way down the mountain when it comes to his career, but he is still a savvy veteran that can give Stan Wawrinka something to think about.
To be honest this is a strange tournament for Wawrinka to place in his schedule after the US Open and then playing Davis Cup and I do question how much motivation he has for a deep run. He had to battle to beat Dustin Brown in the Second Round on Thursday as Wawrinka eventually moved through in three sets, but someone like Kohlschreiber might have a little bit more belief to go on and win this match.
Brown isn't someone lacking belief, but he is a flashy player that plays a lot of low percentage tennis, while Kohlschreiber will pick his shots a lot better. That can make a huge difference in a match like this which will be tight and even what looks like a small number of games can be a huge difference maker.
There is every chance this match goes into a third set because Wawrinka is never too far away from throwing in a really sloppy service game or two, while I am not convinced that Kohlschreiber won't do the same. Again, I can't shake the feeling this is strange scheduling from Wawrinka and whether the motivation is there to fight back if he gets into a hole and I like Kohlschreiber with the games to keep this close if not actually find the upset.
MY PICKS: Caroline Wozniacki + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanksa - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-1, + 9.10 Units (14 Units Staked, + 65% Yield)
Thursday, 24 September 2015
NFL Week 3 Picks 2015 (September 24-28)
The Thursday Night Football schedule means there is little turnaround from week to week in the NFL and the games are spread over three days which means there isn't a lot of time for some of these players to recover from their bumps and bruises.
Injuries have been a real feature of the new season with big names looking like they will be missing plenty of time on the field and so affecting their teams chances of making the Play Offs.
My Week 2 Recap is up and includes comments about the Dallas Cowboys, Chip Kelly, the New England Patriots, Drew Brees, my pick for the 0-2 team that is in the best place to recover and make the Play Offs as well as the usual Power Rankings. You can read that here.
Week 3 Picks
It was the expected bounce back week for Vegas as highlighted by the Survivor Pools that were being played- ESPN noted that the top six picks for the straight up win all lost last week including the New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens who were all favoured by 5.5 points or more on the spread.
Fortunately I missed the majority of the big spreads except the Colts and that defeat meant it was a small loss in Week 2 having gone into the last two games ahead. The Seattle Seahawks blew a Fourth Quarter lead again to miss their cover and then the Colts were pretty terrible in their home loss to the New York Jets on Monday Night Football to drop the picks into the losing column for Week 2.
It could have been a lot worse having missed out on the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills, so I am alright with the season total still in the black.
As I mentioned last week, going forward the Thursday Night Football pick, if I have one, will be up first with the rest of the week picks out in the next couple of days. I will keep them in this one thread though so check back before Sunday to see where I am going this week.
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants Pick: This has suddenly become a really big NFC East game in a Division that has opened up thanks to the injuries the Dallas Cowboys have picked up in the first two weeks of the season. Losing the likes of Dez Bryant and Tony Romo for a number of weeks will give the rest of the Division a lot of hope they can peg back the 2-0 Cowboys, although the New York Giants are in the more desperate position of the two teams playing on Thursday Night Football.
The Giants are 0-2, but they would be 2-0 if anyone on the coaching staff had ever paid attention to kids that play Madden on a console with clock management being the main reason they have lost to the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons. Fortunately for Tom Coughlin, the Giants are far from done and they are favoured to beat the Washington Redskins in Week 3.
Washington are 1-1 thanks to a very good win over the St Louis Rams who were coming in off a stunning upset of the Seattle Seahawks having come from behind to win in Overtime. The Week 1 loss to the Miami Dolphins was ugly, but Matt Jones came together with Alfred Morris in Week 2 to dominate the Rams vaunted front seven.
Jones and Morris will be given the ball to try and keep the Redskins in third and manageable for Kirk Cousins and the rest of the Offense. After two weeks when they were in a good spot to run the ball, they take on the New York Giants who have excelled against the run and get Jon Beason back to improve the Linebacker unit.
Restricting the Dallas Cowboys behind that impressive Offensive Line to just 3.5 yards per carry and keeping Washington in third and long will give the Giants every chance to get off the field. That is me talking about a lack of faith in Cousins at Quarter Back who is never too far from a couple of big errors, although he won't have to worry about a pass rush or going against a Secondary that has played that well.
One of the more surprising aspects of the early NFL season is how well the Washington Redskins have done Defensively, although this is clearly the biggest test they would have faced in the early part of the season. The Giants have actually moved the ball effectively enough when running the ball, but the Offensive Line is banged up and it might be up to Eli Manning to open up the running game by throwing the ball effectively.
He has been able to hit Odell Beckham, although the continuing absence of Victor Cruz has to be a worry for the Giants. There are some decent targets that the Giants still have, but they have to cut out the mistakes that have blighted them in the early going.
Like many teams in the NFC East, Washington have excelled as the road underdog, but they have lost and failed to cover in their last four games against the New York Giants. I also think New York have been close enough to coming into this game 2-0 and they would have been perhaps as many as three points bigger on the spread, while I am not sold on the Washington Defense because they've played well against St Louis and Miami.
The Giants have gone 9-4-1 against the spread when off a loss as the favourite, while Washington are 3-8 against the spread when trying to back up a win as the underdog. I think New York are in a desperate spot to get back into the NFC East and I like them to come through and make it five in a row straight up and against the spread versus the Washington Redskins.
There is no doubt the sharp money is going on the Washington Redskins which has seen the spread shrink to the key number of three points, but I like the New York Giants to get out of their own way and put the first win on the board in the 2015 season and will back them to cover on Thursday Night Football. It very possibly shortens even more up to kick off, but I will lock it in here.
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: When Tony Romo went down with an injury to take away the biggest piece of the Dallas Cowboys Offense and join Dez Bryant on the sidelines, I did think the Atlanta Falcons were going to be the right side to back.
Let's fact facts, who in their right mind would trust Brandon Weeden as a Quarter Back after he struggled in relief last season? The Cowboys did trade for Matt Cassel this week from the Buffalo Bills, but that had more to do with the fact that Dallas were the only team to come into the season with two Quarter Backs prior to the injury to Romo.
There is no doubting that this is Weeden's team for the foreseeable future and I actually have had time to break this game down and believe the Dallas Cowboys are the right side to back.
Dallas are coming off two wins in Divisional games which means they could be set for a let down, but there are reasons to believe in the Cowboys. Atlanta might have a few issues to contend with as they have struggled to run the ball and have lost Tevin Coleman for this game.
Julio Jones is also banged up, although he will be a surprising scratch, and the Atlanta Offensive Line hasn't protected Matt Ryan as well as they would like to have done. Dallas' Defense might have looked like a potential weakness at the beginning of the season but they have played very well with Sean Lee back leading the way at Linebacker and I think the Cowboys Defense steps up their play in this one to another level.
The Cowboys are 6-2 against the spread as the home favourite and Weeden still has some weapons on the Offensive side of the ball to attack a Secondary that is allowing over 315 yards per game through their first two games. I imagine Jason Garrett leans on the Offensive Line and tries to establish a strong running game, which has been missing early in the season, and that should give Weeden a chance to be playing out of third and short.
And how about this statistic- over the past five years, teams playing their first game without their starting Quarter Back cover around 65% of the time. Teams will tend to really rally around the back up Quarter Back and I think Dallas will do that too so they are worth a small interest in this one with the point and a half being given to them. A chance to fade the public is a bonus too after the first two weeks Vegas have had so Dallas do look the call.
I can't go bigger than a single unit because it is Brandon Freaking Weeden at Quarter Back and I wouldn't trust him to avoid the big turnovers that have blighted him through his NFL career. If Jason Witten is ruled out on Sunday this spread might even increase by a couple of points, but I will lock it in here.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans Pick: This is the second season in a row the Indianapolis Colts have opened the season 0-2 so the fan base can't panic at the moment. The AFC South is one of the weaker Divisions outside of the Colts and I imagine Indianapolis will get back into Play Off contention unless the discord between General Manager Ryan Grigson and Head Coach Chuck Pegano is deeper than anyone thinks.
It was a similar level of discord at the San Francisco 49ers last season that eventually saw Jim Harbaugh leave the franchise after a disappointing season. While I wouldn't be surprised to see Pegano move on at the end of this season, he will be hoping that it isn't because Indianapolis have failed to get out of the hole they are currently in.
Pegano wasn't too kind about Andrew Luck in the wake of the Monday Night Football loss to the New York Jets, but Luck has dominated the Division and I think he bounces back this week. The Colts are 13-3-2 against the spread in Divisional games since Luck was picked Number 1 in the Draft and they are 6-0-1 against the spread as the road favourite in those Divisional games.
Last season they went into Week 3 0-2 and Indianapolis crushed the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road and I truly don't think Tennessee are that much improved from last season or much better than Jacksonville were a year ago.
Marcus Mariota sparked them in the first game and they Defense hasn't really been tested having faced Jameis Winston and Johnny Manziel in the first two games. The Titans should be able to control Frank Gore and get pressure on Andrew Luck, but the Quarter Back and the Offense made some big errors in Week 2 and I don't think that happens again.
While the headlines have all been about the pressure the Offensive Line have allowed to come onto Luck, Indianapolis did find ways to get to Ryan Fitzpatrick last week and they will be able to put pressure on rookie Mariota too. Indianapolis have played the run well and I think Luck outduels Mariota here to put his team on the board.
The Colts are now 6-1-1 against the spread when coming off a loss as the favourite, have dominated games against Divisional rivals since Andrew Luck has come in as Quarter Back. Tennessee are 0-3-1 against the spread as the home underdog against teams from the AFC South, while they are 1-6-1 against the spread when set as an underdog of three points or fewer over the last two seasons.
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Drew Brees was officially ruled out on Friday and the public have been pounding the Carolina Panthers to cover the bigger line against the New Orleans Saints who are 0-2 and looking for Luke McCown to hold the team together in the absence of Brees.
There remain some doubts about Brees and whether he is going to have a future in New Orleans beyond this season and now he misses his first game in his NFL career. The problem for Brees is that no one will really know how long he is going to have to sit for the Saints and New Orleans could easily be out of the Play Off picture if they lose this weekend to their Divisional rivals who are 2-0.
Carolina have shown how a team can overcome injuries to win their first couple of games despite some Offensive inconsistencies. It might be a chance for them to put together their best performance on that side of the ball as Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton should both find some big running lanes against this Defensive Line.
The Saints haven't got a lot of pressure on the Quarter Back and they have struggled to get off the field in a similar manner to last season which should give the Panthers confidence in avenging their home loss from 2014.
Am I backing Carolina to cover though? No, I think the Saints can rally behind their back up Quarter Back and cover with this large amount of points behind them.
The media might only have had it confirmed on Friday that Drew Brees is out, but the rumours were there since last Sunday and Sean Payton would have had McCown preparing all week. He would love to get some support from Mark Ingram in the running game, while the Offensive Line has struggled, but this is a spot where McCown has performed in the past.
In 2007, McCown came in for an injured Jeff Garcia and threw for over 300 yards and 2 Touchdowns in a NFC South Divisional game although ironically that was against the New Orleans Saints for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I already mentioned the high covering rate for teams in their first game without their starting Quarter Back, while the Carolina Offense has struggled for consistency and can't be called upon to cover a big number.
The fact McCown's one and pretty much only big performance in the NFL came in relief for a starting Quarter Back is enough to think he can lead the Saints to the cover in a spot that should see a 0-2 squad rally to the cover at the least. It's another one unit play because it's Luke McCown under Center after all!
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets Pick: You just have to love it when there is a huge overreaction that sees a spread make a huge move on the basis of two weeks of football.
Don't misunderstand me, I can't deny the Philadelphia Eagles have looked pretty terrible while the New York Jets have looked better than advertised, but this is not the best of spot for the latter who are being pounded by the public to cover 'just two points'.
Coming off Monday Night Football is difficult, but the New York Jets are now playing a non-Conference game prior to facing the Miami Dolphins in a Divisional battle. That alone might make this a bad spot, but the fact that game is going to be played in London is another distraction and the favourites go 3-8 against the spread the week prior to the International Series game in England.
DeMarco Murray might miss out for the Eagles who have had two disappointing games in the first couple of weeks of the season and Sam Bradford has to find a way to get going behind an Offensive Line that will be challenged by a very strong New York Jets Defensive Line. However, the Jets might miss Darrelle Revis this week which should open up some passing lanes.
On the other hand, Ryan Fitzpatrick has done just enough to make sure the Jets are 2-0, although he will be missing Eric Decker this week. Brandon Marshall should collect his numbers, but the Eagles have been pretty stout against the run and forcing Fitzpatrick to throw from third and long doesn't usually end well for his teams.
It just strikes me as a game that might not feature a lot of points and the Jets are 1-6 against the spread coming off a win as the underdog like they had on Monday Night Football. The Eagles are 5-1 against the spread as an underdog of three points or fewer under Chip Kelly and they can't look ahead to the big game with the Washington Redskins next week. With the distraction of London and the Jets overachieving in their first two games, I think a small interest on the underdog Philadelphia Eagles has to be worth backing.
All the money seems to be on the Jets this week in this game and fading the overreacting public looks the play.
Tampa Buccaneers @ Houston Texans Pick: It was a very big win for rookie Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the SuperDome last week, but backing that up might be difficult in a non-Conference game on the road.
Take a look at the spot- Tampa Bay have had a road game against a Divisional rival, this game and then they host NFC South rivals Carolina next week. A team that was sloppy against the Tennessee Titans from the AFC South in the opening week can't be overly trusted in my opinion to have the ability to repeat their big win from Week 2.
Winston is going to have some ups and downs in his rookie season and now faces a Defensive Line that can put the fear of God into any Quarter Back. The Tampa Bay Offensive Line hasn't been that effective in protection and Winston does have the tendency to hold onto the ball a little too long from his time at the Florida State Seminoles so might have the likes of JJ Watt, Vince Wilfork and Jadeveon Clowney in his face in this one.
It is not like Winston is going to have Doug Martin picking up huge chunks of yardage on the ground and might be in third and long a little too often for his liking. With Mike Evans still a little banged up and Austin Seferian-Jenkins has been ruled out for a few weeks so Winston might not have a lot of places to throw the ball with the expectation Jonathan Joseph will be on Vincent Jackson for much of the afternoon.
Lovie Smith may look at his Defense to propel them to victory and they should have some success in this one. Ryan Mallett just hasn't looked comfortable at Quarter Back and makes too many bad decisions, while the Offensive Line will be under pressure from the pass rush led by Jacquies Smith.
DeAndre Hopkins could be missing so Houston are missing a key piece of their Receiving corps and the continued absence of Arian Foster is a concern with the likes of Alfred Blue not getting it done. That might have something to do with the Offensive Line issues, so Houston will need Mallett to be at his absolute best if they are going to reverse their 0-2 start.
The game could come down to which of the two Quarter Backs makes the fewer mistakes and Ryan Mallett doesn't have that much more game time experience than Jameis Winston at this level. However, I love the spot for the Houston Texans who are desperate to get out of their 0-2 hole and facing a team who are off a big Divisional road win and facing another Divisional rival next week.
It just feels a natural spot for Winston and the Buccaneers to have a step back in their performance and there is a statistic I read that shows 0-2 teams are 19-10 against the spread when favoured by six points or higher. I think the Texans find a way to get this done and back in contention in the weak AFC South and cover the spread too.
San Diego Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: It isn't an ideal position for the San Diego Chargers to be playing back to back road games at the 1pm kick off time, although Mike McCoy has had them playing well in that spot. This is a non-Conference game though and I think the Chargers might have a tough time to stay with the Minnesota Vikings who are off a very impressive home win over the Detroit Lions.
The Chargers have had a hard time slowing down teams who want to run the ball against them over the first couple of weeks of the season and that doesn't bode well for them heading to Minnesota. That is because Adrian Peterson looked close to his best last week when trampling the Detroit Lions, although he needs to get the fumbling issues back under control.
Peterson helped the Minnesota Vikings wrack up 378 yards on the ground when they last hosted the San Diego Chargers in 2007 and he will be licking his chops at this match up. The Chargers have allowed 122 yards per game on the ground at 4.7 yards per carry and I expect Norv Turner to dial up Peterson's number early and often and he should keep the Offense chugging along.
It will help Teddy Bridgewater whose Offensive Line was a lot better last week than in the opening game at the San Francisco 49ers. That was partly because Peterson was given the ball and picking up large chunks on the ground and I expect a similar game plan to come to the fore in this one.
San Diego should also be able to run the ball effectively through Melvin Gordon and that will be what they need to do to make sure Philip Rivers is not under pressure behind this Offensive Line. If they can establish the run, Rivers is good enough to move the chains from third and manageable even without Antonio Gates and that is a key for the San Diego Chargers.
It is tough back to back road games though and the Chargers were 0-2 against the spread in that spot last season. I think Minnesota might have rediscovered their Offensive identity last week and I believe they are a better team than San Diego which makes the spread look a little out of sync here.
The public and the sharps seem to be on the Chargers, but I am going the other way and I think the Minnesota Vikings win and cover.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: I have picked the Arizona Cardinals to win and cover in their first two games of the season because I have felt they are under-rated and this is not the time to get off the bandwagon.
The San Francisco 49ers are not the force of the last few seasons, but this is still a big game for the Arizona Cardinals. Carson Palmer has never beaten the San Francisco 49ers so it is a big game for him personally, while this is a NFC West game that are always that little bit more important for teams.
This is a weaker San Francisco team than in recent years as I have said and they have been decimated Defensively. After a strong performance to open the season against the Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco were torn apart by the Pittsburgh Steelers through the air and Palmer with Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Juron Brown and Michael Floyd will be confident of doing the same.
I can't imagine there will be a lot of room for either Chris Johnson or David Johnson running the ball, but Arizona might not need to do that too much until later in the game when they want to control the clock. San Francisco didn't get any pressure on Ben Roethlisberger last week and Palmer has been very comfortable behind his Offensive Line and should have his way with this Secondary.
That puts the pressure on Colin Kaepernick to find some consistency from the Offense before they are down by three scores like last week. Carlos Hyde will be back, but Arizona haven't conceded too much on the ground and it might be down to Kaepernick to throw the ball to keep them in the team.
While there are some decent Receivers here, San Francisco's Offensive Line has struggled in protection and Kaepernick could be under some pressure. The Arizona Secondary have given away some yards as teams try to keep up with the Cardinals Offense, but they are better than what the statistics show and I like Arizona to create a couple of turnovers in this one.
The 49ers are 1-4 against the spread when set as the road underdog in a Divisional game in recent years while Bruce Arians has inspired his team to 8-2-1 against the spread as the home favourite. This has become a very, very tough team to visit and Arizona are also 5-0 against the spread when favoured by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
I like the Cardinals to get it done and cover what might be a big number at first glance, even if it means being on the same side as the public in this one.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The Buffalo Bills were put in their place by the New England Patriots in Week 2 and now they have a big AFC East game at the Miami Dolphins. With two teams in this Division already at 2-0, these two 1-1 teams will be desperate to avoid being dropped into the basement in what was seen as a promising season prior to kick off.
The Bills have gone 4-2 in the last six games against the Miami Dolphins although they were beaten here last season. Can they bounce back in this underdog spot? I certainly think it is a big possibility despite being a Dolphins fan.
One of the big issues against the Dolphins this season has been an awful Defensive Line performance which has seen them struggle to stop the run. The reports about Ndamukong Suh going rouge is troublesome considering the money paid to him and the Dolphins have been hammered on the ground which is exactly what Suh was supposed to help.
Now they face a run first Offense who have gained almost 5 yards per carry and should have LeSean McCoy ready to go. Tyrod Taylor didn't escape the big mistakes last week which has to be a concern, but he can run the ball and Miami might have some trouble stopping Buffalo rolling in this one, while Dan Carpenter won't miss too many kicks against his former team.
A lack of pressure up front thanks to the discord between the Defensive Line and Defensive Co-Ordinator Kevin Coyle hasn't helped Miami get to the Quarter Back and Cameron Wake remains banged up.
I am also expecting the Bills Defense to rebound after being picked apart by Tom Brady and the Patriots this season. They should be able to because Ryan Tannehill and the Offense here is simply not at that level and it is a big test for the fourth year Quarter Back.
It is very unlikely that Tannehill gets much support from the running game and that means the Bills will see him in third and long and allow this pass rush to get at him. They have given up a lot of yards through the air, but Andrew Luck and Tom Brady can do that to you and the Bills are better than the statistics show on that front. Luck was under siege in Week 1 and only improved the numbers in garbage time, and Tannehill might feel the rush for much of the afternoon.
The Dolphins are just 4-6 against the spread as the home favourite in a Divisional game, while they are 7-12 against the spread as the favourite of three points or fewer in recent years. I mentioned a statistic I had read previously which shows teams are 3-8 against the spread when favoured the week before a game in London.
Miami are also just 2-6 against the spread following a loss as the favourite and Buffalo are 6-4 against the spread as an underdog of three points or fewer. The money being pounded on the Bills without the spread being moved suggests this is another heavily backed public team, but I like Buffalo with the points on the road.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers Pick: There are a couple of emotional aspects at play on Monday Night Football as the Kansas City Chiefs somehow try and pick themselves up from blowing a late lead to lose to the Denver Broncos. On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers picked up a win over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2 and you know that was a game they were heavily invested in and had to win.
The spot might have favoured the Kansas City Chiefs in the last couple of years as the Packers are going to San Francisco next week, but Green Bay are looking to make Lambeau Field a fortress no one wants to visit and the 49ers are no longer the big NFC threat they have been.
Eddie Lacy might not be available, even if he was back in limited fashion on Friday, but James Starks can spell him effectively. Let's face facts though, this team is all about Aaron Rodgers and he has played lights out at home and will have his success against a Secondary that couldn't contain a faded Peyton Manning.
Manning beat the Chiefs with his mind and a late, efficient drive, but Rodgers will give them that for 60 minutes and it is hard to believe the Packers are going to score their points.
It comes down to what the Kansas City Chiefs can do against them and Jamaal Charles might rebound from a crucial fumble that gave the Broncos the win last week. Charles will have seen the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears produce effective ground games and he will have his chance both rushing and receiving out of the backfield.
Matt Forte had a big game against Green Bay and Charles can follow suit while also giving Alex Smith third and manageable conversions to pick up. Smith is still someone who perhaps manages the game more than being able to win it, but the Offensive Line hasn't helped him and Green Bay can get effective pressure on the Quarter Back.
The turnover battle is always key too and Rodgers has simply not turned the ball over at home, while the same is unlikely to be said of Smith. Green Bay are 30-14-1 against the spread as the home favourite in recent years and they are 7-1-1 in that spot since the beginning of the 2014 season.
I respect the fact that Andy Reid inspires his team as a road underdog, Kansas City going 7-3 against the spread in that spot since he took over as Head Coach, but this is a team that is 4-7 against the spread when coming in off a loss as the favourite. Green Bay simply aren't making mistakes at home and while Monday Night Football sees the favourite getting pounded, I think the Packers are the first favourites to cover in the final game of the week.
There is no doubt the sharp money is going on the Washington Redskins which has seen the spread shrink to the key number of three points, but I like the New York Giants to get out of their own way and put the first win on the board in the 2015 season and will back them to cover on Thursday Night Football. It very possibly shortens even more up to kick off, but I will lock it in here.
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: When Tony Romo went down with an injury to take away the biggest piece of the Dallas Cowboys Offense and join Dez Bryant on the sidelines, I did think the Atlanta Falcons were going to be the right side to back.
Let's fact facts, who in their right mind would trust Brandon Weeden as a Quarter Back after he struggled in relief last season? The Cowboys did trade for Matt Cassel this week from the Buffalo Bills, but that had more to do with the fact that Dallas were the only team to come into the season with two Quarter Backs prior to the injury to Romo.
There is no doubting that this is Weeden's team for the foreseeable future and I actually have had time to break this game down and believe the Dallas Cowboys are the right side to back.
Dallas are coming off two wins in Divisional games which means they could be set for a let down, but there are reasons to believe in the Cowboys. Atlanta might have a few issues to contend with as they have struggled to run the ball and have lost Tevin Coleman for this game.
Julio Jones is also banged up, although he will be a surprising scratch, and the Atlanta Offensive Line hasn't protected Matt Ryan as well as they would like to have done. Dallas' Defense might have looked like a potential weakness at the beginning of the season but they have played very well with Sean Lee back leading the way at Linebacker and I think the Cowboys Defense steps up their play in this one to another level.
The Cowboys are 6-2 against the spread as the home favourite and Weeden still has some weapons on the Offensive side of the ball to attack a Secondary that is allowing over 315 yards per game through their first two games. I imagine Jason Garrett leans on the Offensive Line and tries to establish a strong running game, which has been missing early in the season, and that should give Weeden a chance to be playing out of third and short.
And how about this statistic- over the past five years, teams playing their first game without their starting Quarter Back cover around 65% of the time. Teams will tend to really rally around the back up Quarter Back and I think Dallas will do that too so they are worth a small interest in this one with the point and a half being given to them. A chance to fade the public is a bonus too after the first two weeks Vegas have had so Dallas do look the call.
I can't go bigger than a single unit because it is Brandon Freaking Weeden at Quarter Back and I wouldn't trust him to avoid the big turnovers that have blighted him through his NFL career. If Jason Witten is ruled out on Sunday this spread might even increase by a couple of points, but I will lock it in here.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans Pick: This is the second season in a row the Indianapolis Colts have opened the season 0-2 so the fan base can't panic at the moment. The AFC South is one of the weaker Divisions outside of the Colts and I imagine Indianapolis will get back into Play Off contention unless the discord between General Manager Ryan Grigson and Head Coach Chuck Pegano is deeper than anyone thinks.
It was a similar level of discord at the San Francisco 49ers last season that eventually saw Jim Harbaugh leave the franchise after a disappointing season. While I wouldn't be surprised to see Pegano move on at the end of this season, he will be hoping that it isn't because Indianapolis have failed to get out of the hole they are currently in.
Pegano wasn't too kind about Andrew Luck in the wake of the Monday Night Football loss to the New York Jets, but Luck has dominated the Division and I think he bounces back this week. The Colts are 13-3-2 against the spread in Divisional games since Luck was picked Number 1 in the Draft and they are 6-0-1 against the spread as the road favourite in those Divisional games.
Last season they went into Week 3 0-2 and Indianapolis crushed the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road and I truly don't think Tennessee are that much improved from last season or much better than Jacksonville were a year ago.
Marcus Mariota sparked them in the first game and they Defense hasn't really been tested having faced Jameis Winston and Johnny Manziel in the first two games. The Titans should be able to control Frank Gore and get pressure on Andrew Luck, but the Quarter Back and the Offense made some big errors in Week 2 and I don't think that happens again.
While the headlines have all been about the pressure the Offensive Line have allowed to come onto Luck, Indianapolis did find ways to get to Ryan Fitzpatrick last week and they will be able to put pressure on rookie Mariota too. Indianapolis have played the run well and I think Luck outduels Mariota here to put his team on the board.
The Colts are now 6-1-1 against the spread when coming off a loss as the favourite, have dominated games against Divisional rivals since Andrew Luck has come in as Quarter Back. Tennessee are 0-3-1 against the spread as the home underdog against teams from the AFC South, while they are 1-6-1 against the spread when set as an underdog of three points or fewer over the last two seasons.
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Drew Brees was officially ruled out on Friday and the public have been pounding the Carolina Panthers to cover the bigger line against the New Orleans Saints who are 0-2 and looking for Luke McCown to hold the team together in the absence of Brees.
There remain some doubts about Brees and whether he is going to have a future in New Orleans beyond this season and now he misses his first game in his NFL career. The problem for Brees is that no one will really know how long he is going to have to sit for the Saints and New Orleans could easily be out of the Play Off picture if they lose this weekend to their Divisional rivals who are 2-0.
Carolina have shown how a team can overcome injuries to win their first couple of games despite some Offensive inconsistencies. It might be a chance for them to put together their best performance on that side of the ball as Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton should both find some big running lanes against this Defensive Line.
The Saints haven't got a lot of pressure on the Quarter Back and they have struggled to get off the field in a similar manner to last season which should give the Panthers confidence in avenging their home loss from 2014.
Am I backing Carolina to cover though? No, I think the Saints can rally behind their back up Quarter Back and cover with this large amount of points behind them.
The media might only have had it confirmed on Friday that Drew Brees is out, but the rumours were there since last Sunday and Sean Payton would have had McCown preparing all week. He would love to get some support from Mark Ingram in the running game, while the Offensive Line has struggled, but this is a spot where McCown has performed in the past.
In 2007, McCown came in for an injured Jeff Garcia and threw for over 300 yards and 2 Touchdowns in a NFC South Divisional game although ironically that was against the New Orleans Saints for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I already mentioned the high covering rate for teams in their first game without their starting Quarter Back, while the Carolina Offense has struggled for consistency and can't be called upon to cover a big number.
The fact McCown's one and pretty much only big performance in the NFL came in relief for a starting Quarter Back is enough to think he can lead the Saints to the cover in a spot that should see a 0-2 squad rally to the cover at the least. It's another one unit play because it's Luke McCown under Center after all!
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets Pick: You just have to love it when there is a huge overreaction that sees a spread make a huge move on the basis of two weeks of football.
Don't misunderstand me, I can't deny the Philadelphia Eagles have looked pretty terrible while the New York Jets have looked better than advertised, but this is not the best of spot for the latter who are being pounded by the public to cover 'just two points'.
Coming off Monday Night Football is difficult, but the New York Jets are now playing a non-Conference game prior to facing the Miami Dolphins in a Divisional battle. That alone might make this a bad spot, but the fact that game is going to be played in London is another distraction and the favourites go 3-8 against the spread the week prior to the International Series game in England.
DeMarco Murray might miss out for the Eagles who have had two disappointing games in the first couple of weeks of the season and Sam Bradford has to find a way to get going behind an Offensive Line that will be challenged by a very strong New York Jets Defensive Line. However, the Jets might miss Darrelle Revis this week which should open up some passing lanes.
On the other hand, Ryan Fitzpatrick has done just enough to make sure the Jets are 2-0, although he will be missing Eric Decker this week. Brandon Marshall should collect his numbers, but the Eagles have been pretty stout against the run and forcing Fitzpatrick to throw from third and long doesn't usually end well for his teams.
It just strikes me as a game that might not feature a lot of points and the Jets are 1-6 against the spread coming off a win as the underdog like they had on Monday Night Football. The Eagles are 5-1 against the spread as an underdog of three points or fewer under Chip Kelly and they can't look ahead to the big game with the Washington Redskins next week. With the distraction of London and the Jets overachieving in their first two games, I think a small interest on the underdog Philadelphia Eagles has to be worth backing.
All the money seems to be on the Jets this week in this game and fading the overreacting public looks the play.
Tampa Buccaneers @ Houston Texans Pick: It was a very big win for rookie Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the SuperDome last week, but backing that up might be difficult in a non-Conference game on the road.
Take a look at the spot- Tampa Bay have had a road game against a Divisional rival, this game and then they host NFC South rivals Carolina next week. A team that was sloppy against the Tennessee Titans from the AFC South in the opening week can't be overly trusted in my opinion to have the ability to repeat their big win from Week 2.
Winston is going to have some ups and downs in his rookie season and now faces a Defensive Line that can put the fear of God into any Quarter Back. The Tampa Bay Offensive Line hasn't been that effective in protection and Winston does have the tendency to hold onto the ball a little too long from his time at the Florida State Seminoles so might have the likes of JJ Watt, Vince Wilfork and Jadeveon Clowney in his face in this one.
It is not like Winston is going to have Doug Martin picking up huge chunks of yardage on the ground and might be in third and long a little too often for his liking. With Mike Evans still a little banged up and Austin Seferian-Jenkins has been ruled out for a few weeks so Winston might not have a lot of places to throw the ball with the expectation Jonathan Joseph will be on Vincent Jackson for much of the afternoon.
Lovie Smith may look at his Defense to propel them to victory and they should have some success in this one. Ryan Mallett just hasn't looked comfortable at Quarter Back and makes too many bad decisions, while the Offensive Line will be under pressure from the pass rush led by Jacquies Smith.
DeAndre Hopkins could be missing so Houston are missing a key piece of their Receiving corps and the continued absence of Arian Foster is a concern with the likes of Alfred Blue not getting it done. That might have something to do with the Offensive Line issues, so Houston will need Mallett to be at his absolute best if they are going to reverse their 0-2 start.
The game could come down to which of the two Quarter Backs makes the fewer mistakes and Ryan Mallett doesn't have that much more game time experience than Jameis Winston at this level. However, I love the spot for the Houston Texans who are desperate to get out of their 0-2 hole and facing a team who are off a big Divisional road win and facing another Divisional rival next week.
It just feels a natural spot for Winston and the Buccaneers to have a step back in their performance and there is a statistic I read that shows 0-2 teams are 19-10 against the spread when favoured by six points or higher. I think the Texans find a way to get this done and back in contention in the weak AFC South and cover the spread too.
San Diego Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: It isn't an ideal position for the San Diego Chargers to be playing back to back road games at the 1pm kick off time, although Mike McCoy has had them playing well in that spot. This is a non-Conference game though and I think the Chargers might have a tough time to stay with the Minnesota Vikings who are off a very impressive home win over the Detroit Lions.
The Chargers have had a hard time slowing down teams who want to run the ball against them over the first couple of weeks of the season and that doesn't bode well for them heading to Minnesota. That is because Adrian Peterson looked close to his best last week when trampling the Detroit Lions, although he needs to get the fumbling issues back under control.
Peterson helped the Minnesota Vikings wrack up 378 yards on the ground when they last hosted the San Diego Chargers in 2007 and he will be licking his chops at this match up. The Chargers have allowed 122 yards per game on the ground at 4.7 yards per carry and I expect Norv Turner to dial up Peterson's number early and often and he should keep the Offense chugging along.
It will help Teddy Bridgewater whose Offensive Line was a lot better last week than in the opening game at the San Francisco 49ers. That was partly because Peterson was given the ball and picking up large chunks on the ground and I expect a similar game plan to come to the fore in this one.
San Diego should also be able to run the ball effectively through Melvin Gordon and that will be what they need to do to make sure Philip Rivers is not under pressure behind this Offensive Line. If they can establish the run, Rivers is good enough to move the chains from third and manageable even without Antonio Gates and that is a key for the San Diego Chargers.
It is tough back to back road games though and the Chargers were 0-2 against the spread in that spot last season. I think Minnesota might have rediscovered their Offensive identity last week and I believe they are a better team than San Diego which makes the spread look a little out of sync here.
The public and the sharps seem to be on the Chargers, but I am going the other way and I think the Minnesota Vikings win and cover.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: I have picked the Arizona Cardinals to win and cover in their first two games of the season because I have felt they are under-rated and this is not the time to get off the bandwagon.
The San Francisco 49ers are not the force of the last few seasons, but this is still a big game for the Arizona Cardinals. Carson Palmer has never beaten the San Francisco 49ers so it is a big game for him personally, while this is a NFC West game that are always that little bit more important for teams.
This is a weaker San Francisco team than in recent years as I have said and they have been decimated Defensively. After a strong performance to open the season against the Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco were torn apart by the Pittsburgh Steelers through the air and Palmer with Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Juron Brown and Michael Floyd will be confident of doing the same.
I can't imagine there will be a lot of room for either Chris Johnson or David Johnson running the ball, but Arizona might not need to do that too much until later in the game when they want to control the clock. San Francisco didn't get any pressure on Ben Roethlisberger last week and Palmer has been very comfortable behind his Offensive Line and should have his way with this Secondary.
That puts the pressure on Colin Kaepernick to find some consistency from the Offense before they are down by three scores like last week. Carlos Hyde will be back, but Arizona haven't conceded too much on the ground and it might be down to Kaepernick to throw the ball to keep them in the team.
While there are some decent Receivers here, San Francisco's Offensive Line has struggled in protection and Kaepernick could be under some pressure. The Arizona Secondary have given away some yards as teams try to keep up with the Cardinals Offense, but they are better than what the statistics show and I like Arizona to create a couple of turnovers in this one.
The 49ers are 1-4 against the spread when set as the road underdog in a Divisional game in recent years while Bruce Arians has inspired his team to 8-2-1 against the spread as the home favourite. This has become a very, very tough team to visit and Arizona are also 5-0 against the spread when favoured by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
I like the Cardinals to get it done and cover what might be a big number at first glance, even if it means being on the same side as the public in this one.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The Buffalo Bills were put in their place by the New England Patriots in Week 2 and now they have a big AFC East game at the Miami Dolphins. With two teams in this Division already at 2-0, these two 1-1 teams will be desperate to avoid being dropped into the basement in what was seen as a promising season prior to kick off.
The Bills have gone 4-2 in the last six games against the Miami Dolphins although they were beaten here last season. Can they bounce back in this underdog spot? I certainly think it is a big possibility despite being a Dolphins fan.
One of the big issues against the Dolphins this season has been an awful Defensive Line performance which has seen them struggle to stop the run. The reports about Ndamukong Suh going rouge is troublesome considering the money paid to him and the Dolphins have been hammered on the ground which is exactly what Suh was supposed to help.
Now they face a run first Offense who have gained almost 5 yards per carry and should have LeSean McCoy ready to go. Tyrod Taylor didn't escape the big mistakes last week which has to be a concern, but he can run the ball and Miami might have some trouble stopping Buffalo rolling in this one, while Dan Carpenter won't miss too many kicks against his former team.
A lack of pressure up front thanks to the discord between the Defensive Line and Defensive Co-Ordinator Kevin Coyle hasn't helped Miami get to the Quarter Back and Cameron Wake remains banged up.
I am also expecting the Bills Defense to rebound after being picked apart by Tom Brady and the Patriots this season. They should be able to because Ryan Tannehill and the Offense here is simply not at that level and it is a big test for the fourth year Quarter Back.
It is very unlikely that Tannehill gets much support from the running game and that means the Bills will see him in third and long and allow this pass rush to get at him. They have given up a lot of yards through the air, but Andrew Luck and Tom Brady can do that to you and the Bills are better than the statistics show on that front. Luck was under siege in Week 1 and only improved the numbers in garbage time, and Tannehill might feel the rush for much of the afternoon.
The Dolphins are just 4-6 against the spread as the home favourite in a Divisional game, while they are 7-12 against the spread as the favourite of three points or fewer in recent years. I mentioned a statistic I had read previously which shows teams are 3-8 against the spread when favoured the week before a game in London.
Miami are also just 2-6 against the spread following a loss as the favourite and Buffalo are 6-4 against the spread as an underdog of three points or fewer. The money being pounded on the Bills without the spread being moved suggests this is another heavily backed public team, but I like Buffalo with the points on the road.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers Pick: There are a couple of emotional aspects at play on Monday Night Football as the Kansas City Chiefs somehow try and pick themselves up from blowing a late lead to lose to the Denver Broncos. On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers picked up a win over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2 and you know that was a game they were heavily invested in and had to win.
The spot might have favoured the Kansas City Chiefs in the last couple of years as the Packers are going to San Francisco next week, but Green Bay are looking to make Lambeau Field a fortress no one wants to visit and the 49ers are no longer the big NFC threat they have been.
Eddie Lacy might not be available, even if he was back in limited fashion on Friday, but James Starks can spell him effectively. Let's face facts though, this team is all about Aaron Rodgers and he has played lights out at home and will have his success against a Secondary that couldn't contain a faded Peyton Manning.
Manning beat the Chiefs with his mind and a late, efficient drive, but Rodgers will give them that for 60 minutes and it is hard to believe the Packers are going to score their points.
It comes down to what the Kansas City Chiefs can do against them and Jamaal Charles might rebound from a crucial fumble that gave the Broncos the win last week. Charles will have seen the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears produce effective ground games and he will have his chance both rushing and receiving out of the backfield.
Matt Forte had a big game against Green Bay and Charles can follow suit while also giving Alex Smith third and manageable conversions to pick up. Smith is still someone who perhaps manages the game more than being able to win it, but the Offensive Line hasn't helped him and Green Bay can get effective pressure on the Quarter Back.
The turnover battle is always key too and Rodgers has simply not turned the ball over at home, while the same is unlikely to be said of Smith. Green Bay are 30-14-1 against the spread as the home favourite in recent years and they are 7-1-1 in that spot since the beginning of the 2014 season.
I respect the fact that Andy Reid inspires his team as a road underdog, Kansas City going 7-3 against the spread in that spot since he took over as Head Coach, but this is a team that is 4-7 against the spread when coming in off a loss as the favourite. Green Bay simply aren't making mistakes at home and while Monday Night Football sees the favourite getting pounded, I think the Packers are the first favourites to cover in the final game of the week.
MY PICKS: New York Giants - 3 Points @ 1.91 Betway (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 3 Points @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 8 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Houston Texans - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 2 Points @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Week 2: 4-5, - 1.71 Units
Week 1: 5-2-1, + 6.46 Units
Season 2015: 9-7-1, + 4.75 Units
Season 2014: 77-80-2, - 8.47 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
Dallas Cowboys + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 3 Points @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 8 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Houston Texans - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 2 Points @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Week 2: 4-5, - 1.71 Units
Week 1: 5-2-1, + 6.46 Units
Season 2015: 9-7-1, + 4.75 Units
Season 2014: 77-80-2, - 8.47 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
Tennis Picks 2015 (September 24th)
It was a very good day for the picks on Wednesday as all three made from Tokyo and St Petersburg came through as winners and all relatively easily too.
Even the three set win for Angelique Kerber saw her lose just one game in the final two sets against Madison Brengle and move through to the Quarter Final and it means a positive start to the week.
I will be concentrating on the two ATP tournaments on Thursday as Second Round action is concluded in Metz and St Petersburg and my four picks come from those two tournaments.
Nicolas Mahut v Adrian Mannarino: The layers have set this as a virtual pick 'em contest between two home favourites and I think the edge should be given to Nicolas Mahut.
The indoor hard court conditions should favour the big serve and willingness to get to the net wherever possible and Mahut is a former Semi Finalist here. He will look to use the serve to keep Adrian Mannarino under pressure although the latter is an improving player on the Tour and was a very comfortable winner in the First Round.
However, it has to be said that Mannarino is not particularly fond of indoor hard court tennis simply because he doesn't have the same weight of shot as others on the Tour. The indoor conditions means Mannarino generally doesn't get the same time to get around the court and he has struggled in Metz since his first appearance.
In that first appearance, Mannarino reached the Semi Final in Metz, but three First Round exits followed before beating Vincent Millot in the First Round a couple of days ago. Mahut did win his match comfortably on Wednesday so doesn't have the same rest, but he has won 4 of 5 previous matches against Mannarino and I think he can find a way to win this match.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: Twelve months ago, Philipp Kohlschreiber beat Paolo Lorenzi 63, 75 in Metz and I think he can make it two out of two at this tournament against the Italian.
There is no doubt that Kohlschreiber is on the way down in his career, but he had a couple of morale boosting Davis Cup wins over the weekend and is definitely the better indoor and hard court player in this Second Round match. He is playing an opponent who spends about 90% of his time on the clay courts and Kohlschreiber should have enough weight of shot and consistency to keep Lorenzi on the back foot in this one.
Lorenzi perhaps took advantage of Steve Darcis who won the fifth rubber in the Davis Cup Semi Final for Belgium, but he won't have the same fortune in the draw in the Second Round. The Italian does work hard on the court, but his serve is a potential weakness and that is a problem on the indoor hard courts where one break of serve can be enough to ensure the set is won.
It was a close match when they met last year, but I expect this one will be too. However, I think Kohlschreiber will have the more opportunities to break serve and can come through this match with a 64, 63 win.
Gilles Simon - 4.5 games v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: Two more French players will meet one another for a place in the Quarter Final in Metz and Gilles Simon has really enjoyed his time here having won the title twice before. This is his first match since the US Open which is where Edouard Roger-Vasselin will try to exploit his advantage.
Roger-Vasselin had to come through the Qualifiers to get into the main draw so has had three wins this week, so his confidence has to be in a good place taking on Simon. He hasn't beaten his higher Ranked compatriot in a professional match though and Simon was a comfortable winner over him on the indoor hard courts in Marseille earlier this season.
It was a closer match than the scoreline might have indicated, but Simon dominated the points against the Roger-Vasselin second serve and that is where he will look to dominate again in this Second Round match. He works hard and will look to wear down Roger-Vasselin and Simon does have the advantage when it comes to movement and being able to defend his position on the court.
Simon's serve is always a weakness that will give opponents a chance as he has to work hard for all of his points, but he should have enough know-how on the court to break down Roger-Vasselin. After a fairly long couple of sets, I like Simon to come through 63, 64 in this one.
Evgeny Donskoy + 3.5 games v Milos Raonic: This is a home tournament for Evgeny Donskoy and that should produce plenty of motivation for him to have as deep a run as possible here.
Facing the Number 2 Seed Milos Raonic is a difficult Second Round test, but Donskoy does have a couple of things going for him.
First of all is Donskoy has won a match here already and so he should be accustomed to the conditions while knowing the fans will give him plenty of support. Second this is Milos Raonic's first match since the US Open when he was suffering with some issues with his back and it has to be a question mark as to whether he is truly ready to go.
Tie-breakers are a real possibility in this match and it does feel Donskoy is getting too many games if the Canadian is not ready for a competitive match. Underestimating Donskoy won't work for Raonic and this has all the makings of a close match that should see the Russian stay within the number even if he loses the match.
I genuinely believe Donskoy has a chance of perhaps pulling the upset, but I will take the security of the games in this Second Round match.
MY PICKS: Nicolas Mahut @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Evgeny Donskoy + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-0, + 5.24 Units (6 Units Staked, + 87.33% Yield)
Even the three set win for Angelique Kerber saw her lose just one game in the final two sets against Madison Brengle and move through to the Quarter Final and it means a positive start to the week.
I will be concentrating on the two ATP tournaments on Thursday as Second Round action is concluded in Metz and St Petersburg and my four picks come from those two tournaments.
Nicolas Mahut v Adrian Mannarino: The layers have set this as a virtual pick 'em contest between two home favourites and I think the edge should be given to Nicolas Mahut.
The indoor hard court conditions should favour the big serve and willingness to get to the net wherever possible and Mahut is a former Semi Finalist here. He will look to use the serve to keep Adrian Mannarino under pressure although the latter is an improving player on the Tour and was a very comfortable winner in the First Round.
However, it has to be said that Mannarino is not particularly fond of indoor hard court tennis simply because he doesn't have the same weight of shot as others on the Tour. The indoor conditions means Mannarino generally doesn't get the same time to get around the court and he has struggled in Metz since his first appearance.
In that first appearance, Mannarino reached the Semi Final in Metz, but three First Round exits followed before beating Vincent Millot in the First Round a couple of days ago. Mahut did win his match comfortably on Wednesday so doesn't have the same rest, but he has won 4 of 5 previous matches against Mannarino and I think he can find a way to win this match.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: Twelve months ago, Philipp Kohlschreiber beat Paolo Lorenzi 63, 75 in Metz and I think he can make it two out of two at this tournament against the Italian.
There is no doubt that Kohlschreiber is on the way down in his career, but he had a couple of morale boosting Davis Cup wins over the weekend and is definitely the better indoor and hard court player in this Second Round match. He is playing an opponent who spends about 90% of his time on the clay courts and Kohlschreiber should have enough weight of shot and consistency to keep Lorenzi on the back foot in this one.
Lorenzi perhaps took advantage of Steve Darcis who won the fifth rubber in the Davis Cup Semi Final for Belgium, but he won't have the same fortune in the draw in the Second Round. The Italian does work hard on the court, but his serve is a potential weakness and that is a problem on the indoor hard courts where one break of serve can be enough to ensure the set is won.
It was a close match when they met last year, but I expect this one will be too. However, I think Kohlschreiber will have the more opportunities to break serve and can come through this match with a 64, 63 win.
Gilles Simon - 4.5 games v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: Two more French players will meet one another for a place in the Quarter Final in Metz and Gilles Simon has really enjoyed his time here having won the title twice before. This is his first match since the US Open which is where Edouard Roger-Vasselin will try to exploit his advantage.
Roger-Vasselin had to come through the Qualifiers to get into the main draw so has had three wins this week, so his confidence has to be in a good place taking on Simon. He hasn't beaten his higher Ranked compatriot in a professional match though and Simon was a comfortable winner over him on the indoor hard courts in Marseille earlier this season.
It was a closer match than the scoreline might have indicated, but Simon dominated the points against the Roger-Vasselin second serve and that is where he will look to dominate again in this Second Round match. He works hard and will look to wear down Roger-Vasselin and Simon does have the advantage when it comes to movement and being able to defend his position on the court.
Simon's serve is always a weakness that will give opponents a chance as he has to work hard for all of his points, but he should have enough know-how on the court to break down Roger-Vasselin. After a fairly long couple of sets, I like Simon to come through 63, 64 in this one.
Evgeny Donskoy + 3.5 games v Milos Raonic: This is a home tournament for Evgeny Donskoy and that should produce plenty of motivation for him to have as deep a run as possible here.
Facing the Number 2 Seed Milos Raonic is a difficult Second Round test, but Donskoy does have a couple of things going for him.
First of all is Donskoy has won a match here already and so he should be accustomed to the conditions while knowing the fans will give him plenty of support. Second this is Milos Raonic's first match since the US Open when he was suffering with some issues with his back and it has to be a question mark as to whether he is truly ready to go.
Tie-breakers are a real possibility in this match and it does feel Donskoy is getting too many games if the Canadian is not ready for a competitive match. Underestimating Donskoy won't work for Raonic and this has all the makings of a close match that should see the Russian stay within the number even if he loses the match.
I genuinely believe Donskoy has a chance of perhaps pulling the upset, but I will take the security of the games in this Second Round match.
MY PICKS: Nicolas Mahut @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Evgeny Donskoy + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-0, + 5.24 Units (6 Units Staked, + 87.33% Yield)
Wednesday, 23 September 2015
NFL Week 2 Recap 2015 (September 23rd)
Week 2 of the NFL is in the books and it has been a very important one with key injuries to some of the teams expecting to challenge for the Super Bowl and some surprising 0-2 teams.
Some things haven't changed in the NFL though, and I will discuss those soon, while I try and figure whether we are about to see some big changes in other franchises.
Without further ado, let's get on with my Week 2 Recap as well as the Power Rankings and Week 2 Picks breakdown.
Beating down the Indianapolis Colts and getting the game at home meant there was a lot of talking in Buffalo this week and many of the 'wiseguys' in Vegas were also backing the Bills to record a statement win.
I guess we all should have learned that you simply can't disregard New England while Tom Brady is Quarter Backing the team and Number 12 was pretty spectacular against a Defense that could be one of the best in the NFL. They didn't look that way on Sunday as New England tagged Buffalo for 42 points and once again highlighted that there is only so far you can go with a Quarter Back that has struggled for a home through his career in Tyrod Taylor.
The Pats have put a big rival in the AFC East in their place and they would have enjoyed seeing the Miami Dolphins lay an egg in a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. There are issues with the coaching staff and the players in Miami and that looks a situation that could potentially get ugly very quickly despite some good moves in Free Agency and the Draft.
Even the 2-0 and New York Jets won't really worry New England because Ryan Fitzpatrick simply is never far away from bombing out and I do think the Patriots can dominate this Division again.
After the excitement of going into Week 2 with every team at 1-0 in the Division and Buffalo looking like a real contender to knock off New England, Week 3 looks to have a much more familiar feel for the fans in the AFC East.
Brees proved he was far from done and found the perfect home in New Orleans along with Head Coach Sean Payton, a partnership that led to a Super Bowl win.
Father Time remains undefeated though and New Orleans have made some moves which suggested that they are perhaps rebooting things here, while some reports suggested they would try and move on from Brees at the end of the season. There is also a power struggle going on behind the scenes between Tom Benson and Rita Benson whereby the latter winning could see Sean Payton walk as Head Coach.
He might not need to walk if the 0-2 Saints can't turn things around after an embarrassing home defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, especially as Brees looked to have damaged his shoulder in that loss. The rumour mill believes Brees could be missing time on the field and that is only going to make the decision to reboot and move on from the Quarter Back that much easier especially if he is to miss extended time.
No one will ever doubt Brees' position at the franchise and he will never have to buy another drink in New Orleans, but I am starting to wonder if this is the beginning of the end of the Brees/Payton partnership. I wouldn't be surprised if New Orleans just take the hit on the Brees contract, because they are unlikely to find too many trading partners on his current deal, at the end of the season, but his departure could easily coincide with Payton's if the Saints can't pick themselves up and start winning games.
Bryant was lost after Week 1 and could miss up to 12 weeks with a foot injury according to some reports, while Romo broke his collarbone for the second time in his career in Week 2 and is likely to be out for up to 8 weeks.
Those are some huge losses for Dallas and I don't think there will be too many out there proclaiming their belief in Brandon Weedon as the starting Quarter Back as Jerry Jones did on Tuesday.
It only magnifies the decision to let DeMarco Murray walk in Free Agency (Dallas did offer him enough money to stay, but Murray ultimately felt unloved) as the Cowboys haven't been as effective running the ball without him. They need to establish a running game to give Weedon as much support as possible, while the Defense needs to keep up the play they have produced for much of the first two weeks.
Reinforcements on that unit look to return in the next few weeks so Dallas might be relying on Weedon to manage them through games, but the Arizona Cardinals showed how difficult that can be last season after losing Carson Palmer. The Dallas Offensive Line should be able to open more holes to at least run the ball and keep the team in third and manageable, but none of the Running Backs on the depth chart have looked capable of making up for Murray's loss.
The schedule isn't kind to Dallas in the coming weeks as they face the likes of Atlanta Falcons, New England Patriots, the New York Giants, the Seattle Seahawks and the Philadelphia Eagles without Romo and Bryant, while the game in New Orleans is always a tough test (well it was before New Orleans lost 6 in a row there).
Dallas could easily be 4-5 by the time Tony Romo is back, but the back end of the schedule is manageable and I don't doubt the Cowboys can make it back to the Play Offs.
One benefit for them has to be the Division and the fact the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles are both 0-2 and no one really believes in the Washington Redskins even at 1-1. It doesn't look a Division that would see anyone pull away from Dallas even if they are 4-5 going into Week 11 and so I still believe they can overcome injuries and get back to the Play Offs.
Kelly is clearly very confident in his system, but to jettison names like LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin, as well as making big changes on the Offensive Line and trade away Nick Foles for Sam Bradford meant he couldn't afford a poor start to the season.
A 0-2 type start.
The kind of start the Eagles have made.
It was an ugly loss to the Dallas Cowboys at home in Week 2 as DeMarco Murray continues to struggle to find the running lanes that the Dallas Cowboys opened for him last season, while Bradford was horrible at Quarter Back. The Defense tried to play their part, but it is the Offense that Kelly has been come to known for and their failure is a reflection on the Head Coach/General Manager.
Troy Aikman made the point on Sunday that the Eagles have only played two good Quarters out of the eight they have competed in this season and the pressure is going to come down on Kelly.
Missing the Play Offs last season was a big disappointment, but when you make the moves Kelly did in chasing some big names out of town you can't afford a poor season. The Philadelphia fans have been known for being an impatient bunch who are quick to voice their displeasure and returning back to Lincoln Financial Field at less than 2-2 might see Kelly hear it all from the stands.
The Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks have all lost their first two games.
Four of those teams made the Play Offs last season, while the Colts and Seahawks was a favourite Super Bowl pick of many.
Baltimore have regularly been a Play Off team in recent seasons and many expected the New Orleans Saints to bounce back from a disappointing 2014 season, but it simply hasn't worked out for these teams.
So which has the best chance to overcome the odds and join the 12% who have made the Play Offs?
I'd have to go with the Indianapolis Colts to overcome some real conflicts behind the scenes between Ryan Grigson and Chuck Pegano because of the terrible Division they play in. Andrew Luck has feasted on the AFC South teams since coming into the NFL and no team has won both games in the Division so they look to have the best chance of turning things around.
The Seattle Seahawks will find it tough to beat out the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West if Carson Palmer remains healthy, while the Baltimore Ravens have to beat the Cincinnati Bengals this week, although both can fight back for Wild Card spots.
Philadelphia and the New York Giants will have seen Dallas hurt badly by injuries so are also far from finished, but I would pick the Indianapolis Colts if I was told that only one of the nine teams at 0-2 will be making the Play Offs at the end of the season.
Some things haven't changed in the NFL though, and I will discuss those soon, while I try and figure whether we are about to see some big changes in other franchises.
Without further ado, let's get on with my Week 2 Recap as well as the Power Rankings and Week 2 Picks breakdown.
New England Still the Team to Beat in the AFC East
I was really looking forward to seeing how the Buffalo Bills would do against the New England Patriots in Week 2 and genuinely believed the home team could lay down a marker and show this is going to be anything but the usual cakewalk for the Patriots in the AFC East this season.Beating down the Indianapolis Colts and getting the game at home meant there was a lot of talking in Buffalo this week and many of the 'wiseguys' in Vegas were also backing the Bills to record a statement win.
I guess we all should have learned that you simply can't disregard New England while Tom Brady is Quarter Backing the team and Number 12 was pretty spectacular against a Defense that could be one of the best in the NFL. They didn't look that way on Sunday as New England tagged Buffalo for 42 points and once again highlighted that there is only so far you can go with a Quarter Back that has struggled for a home through his career in Tyrod Taylor.
The Pats have put a big rival in the AFC East in their place and they would have enjoyed seeing the Miami Dolphins lay an egg in a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. There are issues with the coaching staff and the players in Miami and that looks a situation that could potentially get ugly very quickly despite some good moves in Free Agency and the Draft.
Even the 2-0 and New York Jets won't really worry New England because Ryan Fitzpatrick simply is never far away from bombing out and I do think the Patriots can dominate this Division again.
After the excitement of going into Week 2 with every team at 1-0 in the Division and Buffalo looking like a real contender to knock off New England, Week 3 looks to have a much more familiar feel for the fans in the AFC East.
Is the Drew Brees/Sean Payton Era over in New Orleans?
I am a big fan of Drew Brees and one of the biggest regrets has to be when my team the Dolphins passed him over in favour of Daunte Culpepper ten years ago because they believed the Quarter Back's shoulder was shot.Brees proved he was far from done and found the perfect home in New Orleans along with Head Coach Sean Payton, a partnership that led to a Super Bowl win.
Father Time remains undefeated though and New Orleans have made some moves which suggested that they are perhaps rebooting things here, while some reports suggested they would try and move on from Brees at the end of the season. There is also a power struggle going on behind the scenes between Tom Benson and Rita Benson whereby the latter winning could see Sean Payton walk as Head Coach.
He might not need to walk if the 0-2 Saints can't turn things around after an embarrassing home defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, especially as Brees looked to have damaged his shoulder in that loss. The rumour mill believes Brees could be missing time on the field and that is only going to make the decision to reboot and move on from the Quarter Back that much easier especially if he is to miss extended time.
No one will ever doubt Brees' position at the franchise and he will never have to buy another drink in New Orleans, but I am starting to wonder if this is the beginning of the end of the Brees/Payton partnership. I wouldn't be surprised if New Orleans just take the hit on the Brees contract, because they are unlikely to find too many trading partners on his current deal, at the end of the season, but his departure could easily coincide with Payton's if the Saints can't pick themselves up and start winning games.
Can the Dallas Cowboys Overcome Key Injuries to Win the NFC East?
The Dallas Cowboys are up to 2-0 thanks to a second Divisional win in consecutive weeks, but losing one of the two pictured players would have been a blow... Losing both could make it very tough for Dallas to be in a position to win this Division by the time both Tony Romo and Dez Bryant return.Bryant was lost after Week 1 and could miss up to 12 weeks with a foot injury according to some reports, while Romo broke his collarbone for the second time in his career in Week 2 and is likely to be out for up to 8 weeks.
Those are some huge losses for Dallas and I don't think there will be too many out there proclaiming their belief in Brandon Weedon as the starting Quarter Back as Jerry Jones did on Tuesday.
It only magnifies the decision to let DeMarco Murray walk in Free Agency (Dallas did offer him enough money to stay, but Murray ultimately felt unloved) as the Cowboys haven't been as effective running the ball without him. They need to establish a running game to give Weedon as much support as possible, while the Defense needs to keep up the play they have produced for much of the first two weeks.
Reinforcements on that unit look to return in the next few weeks so Dallas might be relying on Weedon to manage them through games, but the Arizona Cardinals showed how difficult that can be last season after losing Carson Palmer. The Dallas Offensive Line should be able to open more holes to at least run the ball and keep the team in third and manageable, but none of the Running Backs on the depth chart have looked capable of making up for Murray's loss.
The schedule isn't kind to Dallas in the coming weeks as they face the likes of Atlanta Falcons, New England Patriots, the New York Giants, the Seattle Seahawks and the Philadelphia Eagles without Romo and Bryant, while the game in New Orleans is always a tough test (well it was before New Orleans lost 6 in a row there).
Dallas could easily be 4-5 by the time Tony Romo is back, but the back end of the schedule is manageable and I don't doubt the Cowboys can make it back to the Play Offs.
One benefit for them has to be the Division and the fact the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles are both 0-2 and no one really believes in the Washington Redskins even at 1-1. It doesn't look a Division that would see anyone pull away from Dallas even if they are 4-5 going into Week 11 and so I still believe they can overcome injuries and get back to the Play Offs.
Chip Kelly Under Pressure to get Things Right in Philadelphia
When Chip Kelly won the battle behind the scenes to effectively take over as General Manager as well as Head Coach of the Philadelphia Eagles this off-season, he was automatically under more pressure to make sure he makes the right moves.Kelly is clearly very confident in his system, but to jettison names like LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin, as well as making big changes on the Offensive Line and trade away Nick Foles for Sam Bradford meant he couldn't afford a poor start to the season.
A 0-2 type start.
The kind of start the Eagles have made.
It was an ugly loss to the Dallas Cowboys at home in Week 2 as DeMarco Murray continues to struggle to find the running lanes that the Dallas Cowboys opened for him last season, while Bradford was horrible at Quarter Back. The Defense tried to play their part, but it is the Offense that Kelly has been come to known for and their failure is a reflection on the Head Coach/General Manager.
Troy Aikman made the point on Sunday that the Eagles have only played two good Quarters out of the eight they have competed in this season and the pressure is going to come down on Kelly.
Missing the Play Offs last season was a big disappointment, but when you make the moves Kelly did in chasing some big names out of town you can't afford a poor season. The Philadelphia fans have been known for being an impatient bunch who are quick to voice their displeasure and returning back to Lincoln Financial Field at less than 2-2 might see Kelly hear it all from the stands.
Which 0-2 Team is Best Placed to Make the Play Offs?
There is a statistic that says that only 12% of teams who start the season 0-2 will go on and make the Play Offs (since 1990) and there are a number of pre-season favourites that have fallen into that hole.The Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks have all lost their first two games.
Four of those teams made the Play Offs last season, while the Colts and Seahawks was a favourite Super Bowl pick of many.
Baltimore have regularly been a Play Off team in recent seasons and many expected the New Orleans Saints to bounce back from a disappointing 2014 season, but it simply hasn't worked out for these teams.
So which has the best chance to overcome the odds and join the 12% who have made the Play Offs?
I'd have to go with the Indianapolis Colts to overcome some real conflicts behind the scenes between Ryan Grigson and Chuck Pegano because of the terrible Division they play in. Andrew Luck has feasted on the AFC South teams since coming into the NFL and no team has won both games in the Division so they look to have the best chance of turning things around.
The Seattle Seahawks will find it tough to beat out the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West if Carson Palmer remains healthy, while the Baltimore Ravens have to beat the Cincinnati Bengals this week, although both can fight back for Wild Card spots.
Philadelphia and the New York Giants will have seen Dallas hurt badly by injuries so are also far from finished, but I would pick the Indianapolis Colts if I was told that only one of the nine teams at 0-2 will be making the Play Offs at the end of the season.
Top Ten
1) Green Bay Packers (2-0): They only beat the NFC Champions from last season which gives them the confidence to go on and earn the Number 1 Seed in the NFC this time around.
2) Arizona Cardinals (2-0): I think the Cardinals are still severely under-rated in some circles and this is a team that can win it all if they have better health than last season.
3) New England Patriots (2-0): I almost put them up to Number 2 after an impressive beat down of the Buffalo Bills on the road, but the New England Patriots remain in this spot as the team to beat in the AFC.
4) Denver Broncos (2-0): Peyton Manning looked so much more comfortable running his own Offense out of the shotgun, but will Gary Kubiak change his mind about his own system.
5) Atlanta Falcons (2-0): Matt Ryan's Offensive Line needs to be a little more solid, but the Falcons have looked better on both sides of the ball compared with 2014.
6) Cincinnati Bengals (2-0): Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals seem to be a dark horse at this stage of the season, but they will have to prove themselves going forward to remain as high as I have them.
7) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1): The Offense looks like it is about to get more dangerous with Le'Veon Bell returning to team duties, but it is the Defense that will hold back Pittsburgh.
8) Dallas Cowboys (2-0): Injuries to Tony Romo and Dez Bryant means I had to drop them down the Rankings, but the Dallas Cowboys could still be the team to beat in the NFC East.
9) Indianapolis Colts (0-2): I can't see the Colts playing as badly as they have in the first couple of games, but they need to prove it on the field with a Divisional game at Tennessee this week.
10) Seattle Seahawks (0-2): There were signs that the Seahawks are still going to be amongst the contenders in their loss to the Packers, but I would be worried by another Fourth Quarter lead given up.
Bottom Five
32) Chicago Bears (0-2): Two home losses, albeit to the teams I consider amongst the best in the NFL, and an injury to Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery means the Chicago Bears might take some turning around.
31) New Orleans Saints (0-2): The Saints still can't get off the field on the Defensive side of the ball, while Drew Brees is hurt and the Offense has been too inconsistent.
30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1): Jameis Winston was a lot better in Week 2 than he was in Week 1 and winning in the SuperDome is not easy, but I am not sold on the Buccaneers just yet.
29) Tennessee Titans (1-1): Marcus Mariota was brought back down to earth by the Cleveland Browns and the Titans suffered a couple of key injuries.
28) Miami Dolphins (1-1): This might be frustration on my part, but the Miami Dolphins look a mess with reports of discord between the coaching staff and players and a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars was just ugly.
Week 2 Picks Recap
The picks went into the final two games of Week 2 in a decent position to come out with a winning record, but the three points on the Seattle Seahawks and the Indianapolis Colts didn't work out to produce a small loss.
A couple of the picks were just plain ugly and didn't stand much of a chance after the early stages, the worst of which might have been the Buffalo Bills being outplayed by the New England Patriots.
It could have been different if Seattle hadn't thrown an Interception in the Fourth Quarter of the loss to the Green Bay Packers as they looked to be driving effectively for what would have been a tying score.
Even so, I can't complain too much as I am still up through the first two weeks and I will continue to try and keep focused and get Week 3 back into the positive.
As always, you can read my Week 3 Picks on the dedicated post which should be up on Thursday with picks being made through Saturday and I will have updated the season totals on that page too.
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