NFL Week 3 Picks 2015 (September 24-28)

The Thursday Night Football schedule means there is little turnaround from week to week in the NFL and the games are spread over three days which means there isn't a lot of time for some of these players to recover from their bumps and bruises.

Injuries have been a real feature of the new season with big names looking like they will be missing plenty of time on the field and so affecting their teams chances of making the Play Offs.

My Week 2 Recap is up and includes comments about the Dallas Cowboys, Chip Kelly, the New England Patriots, Drew Brees, my pick for the 0-2 team that is in the best place to recover and make the Play Offs as well as the usual Power Rankings. You can read that here.

Week 3 Picks

It was the expected bounce back week for Vegas as highlighted by the Survivor Pools that were being played- ESPN noted that the top six picks for the straight up win all lost last week including the New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens who were all favoured by 5.5 points or more on the spread.

Fortunately I missed the majority of the big spreads except the Colts and that defeat meant it was a small loss in Week 2 having gone into the last two games ahead. The Seattle Seahawks blew a Fourth Quarter lead again to miss their cover and then the Colts were pretty terrible in their home loss to the New York Jets on Monday Night Football to drop the picks into the losing column for Week 2.

It could have been a lot worse having missed out on the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills, so I am alright with the season total still in the black.

As I mentioned last week, going forward the Thursday Night Football pick, if I have one, will be up first with the rest of the week picks out in the next couple of days. I will keep them in this one thread though so check back before Sunday to see where I am going this week.

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants Pick: This has suddenly become a really big NFC East game in a Division that has opened up thanks to the injuries the Dallas Cowboys have picked up in the first two weeks of the season. Losing the likes of Dez Bryant and Tony Romo for a number of weeks will give the rest of the Division a lot of hope they can peg back the 2-0 Cowboys, although the New York Giants are in the more desperate position of the two teams playing on Thursday Night Football.

The Giants are 0-2, but they would be 2-0 if anyone on the coaching staff had ever paid attention to kids that play Madden on a console with clock management being the main reason they have lost to the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons. Fortunately for Tom Coughlin, the Giants are far from done and they are favoured to beat the Washington Redskins in Week 3.

Washington are 1-1 thanks to a very good win over the St Louis Rams who were coming in off a stunning upset of the Seattle Seahawks having come from behind to win in Overtime. The Week 1 loss to the Miami Dolphins was ugly, but Matt Jones came together with Alfred Morris in Week 2 to dominate the Rams vaunted front seven.

Jones and Morris will be given the ball to try and keep the Redskins in third and manageable for Kirk Cousins and the rest of the Offense. After two weeks when they were in a good spot to run the ball, they take on the New York Giants who have excelled against the run and get Jon Beason back to improve the Linebacker unit.

Restricting the Dallas Cowboys behind that impressive Offensive Line to just 3.5 yards per carry and keeping Washington in third and long will give the Giants every chance to get off the field. That is me talking about a lack of faith in Cousins at Quarter Back who is never too far from a couple of big errors, although he won't have to worry about a pass rush or going against a Secondary that has played that well.

One of the more surprising aspects of the early NFL season is how well the Washington Redskins have done Defensively, although this is clearly the biggest test they would have faced in the early part of the season. The Giants have actually moved the ball effectively enough when running the ball, but the Offensive Line is banged up and it might be up to Eli Manning to open up the running game by throwing the ball effectively.

He has been able to hit Odell Beckham, although the continuing absence of Victor Cruz has to be a worry for the Giants. There are some decent targets that the Giants still have, but they have to cut out the mistakes that have blighted them in the early going.

Like many teams in the NFC East, Washington have excelled as the road underdog, but they have lost and failed to cover in their last four games against the New York Giants. I also think New York have been close enough to coming into this game 2-0 and they would have been perhaps as many as three points bigger on the spread, while I am not sold on the Washington Defense because they've played well against St Louis and Miami.

The Giants have gone 9-4-1 against the spread when off a loss as the favourite, while Washington are 3-8 against the spread when trying to back up a win as the underdog. I think New York are in a desperate spot to get back into the NFC East and I like them to come through and make it five in a row straight up and against the spread versus the Washington Redskins.

There is no doubt the sharp money is going on the Washington Redskins which has seen the spread shrink to the key number of three points, but I like the New York Giants to get out of their own way and put the first win on the board in the 2015 season and will back them to cover on Thursday Night Football. It very possibly shortens even more up to kick off, but I will lock it in here.


Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: When Tony Romo went down with an injury to take away the biggest piece of the Dallas Cowboys Offense and join Dez Bryant on the sidelines, I did think the Atlanta Falcons were going to be the right side to back.

Let's fact facts, who in their right mind would trust Brandon Weeden as a Quarter Back after he struggled in relief last season? The Cowboys did trade for Matt Cassel this week from the Buffalo Bills, but that had more to do with the fact that Dallas were the only team to come into the season with two Quarter Backs prior to the injury to Romo.

There is no doubting that this is Weeden's team for the foreseeable future and I actually have had time to break this game down and believe the Dallas Cowboys are the right side to back.

Dallas are coming off two wins in Divisional games which means they could be set for a let down, but there are reasons to believe in the Cowboys. Atlanta might have a few issues to contend with as they have struggled to run the ball and have lost Tevin Coleman for this game.

Julio Jones is also banged up, although he will be a surprising scratch, and the Atlanta Offensive Line hasn't protected Matt Ryan as well as they would like to have done. Dallas' Defense might have looked like a potential weakness at the beginning of the season but they have played very well with Sean Lee back leading the way at Linebacker and I think the Cowboys Defense steps up their play in this one to another level.

The Cowboys are 6-2 against the spread as the home favourite and Weeden still has some weapons on the Offensive side of the ball to attack a Secondary that is allowing over 315 yards per game through their first two games. I imagine Jason Garrett leans on the Offensive Line and tries to establish a strong running game, which has been missing early in the season, and that should give Weeden a chance to be playing out of third and short.

And how about this statistic- over the past five years, teams playing their first game without their starting Quarter Back cover around 65% of the time. Teams will tend to really rally around the back up Quarter Back and I think Dallas will do that too so they are worth a small interest in this one with the point and a half being given to them. A chance to fade the public is a bonus too after the first two weeks Vegas have had so Dallas do look the call.

I can't go bigger than a single unit because it is Brandon Freaking Weeden at Quarter Back and I wouldn't trust him to avoid the big turnovers that have blighted him through his NFL career. If Jason Witten is ruled out on Sunday this spread might even increase by a couple of points, but I will lock it in here.


Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans Pick: This is the second season in a row the Indianapolis Colts have opened the season 0-2 so the fan base can't panic at the moment. The AFC South is one of the weaker Divisions outside of the Colts and I imagine Indianapolis will get back into Play Off contention unless the discord between General Manager Ryan Grigson and Head Coach Chuck Pegano is deeper than anyone thinks.

It was a similar level of discord at the San Francisco 49ers last season that eventually saw Jim Harbaugh leave the franchise after a disappointing season. While I wouldn't be surprised to see Pegano move on at the end of this season, he will be hoping that it isn't because Indianapolis have failed to get out of the hole they are currently in.

Pegano wasn't too kind about Andrew Luck in the wake of the Monday Night Football loss to the New York Jets, but Luck has dominated the Division and I think he bounces back this week. The Colts are 13-3-2 against the spread in Divisional games since Luck was picked Number 1 in the Draft and they are 6-0-1 against the spread as the road favourite in those Divisional games.

Last season they went into Week 3 0-2 and Indianapolis crushed the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road and I truly don't think Tennessee are that much improved from last season or much better than Jacksonville were a year ago.

Marcus Mariota sparked them in the first game and they Defense hasn't really been tested having faced Jameis Winston and Johnny Manziel in the first two games. The Titans should be able to control Frank Gore and get pressure on Andrew Luck, but the Quarter Back and the Offense made some big errors in Week 2 and I don't think that happens again.

While the headlines have all been about the pressure the Offensive Line have allowed to come onto Luck, Indianapolis did find ways to get to Ryan Fitzpatrick last week and they will be able to put pressure on rookie Mariota too. Indianapolis have played the run well and I think Luck outduels Mariota here to put his team on the board.

The Colts are now 6-1-1 against the spread when coming off a loss as the favourite, have dominated games against Divisional rivals since Andrew Luck has come in as Quarter Back. Tennessee are 0-3-1 against the spread as the home underdog against teams from the AFC South, while they are 1-6-1 against the spread when set as an underdog of three points or fewer over the last two seasons.


New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Drew Brees was officially ruled out on Friday and the public have been pounding the Carolina Panthers to cover the bigger line against the New Orleans Saints who are 0-2 and looking for Luke McCown to hold the team together in the absence of Brees.

There remain some doubts about Brees and whether he is going to have a future in New Orleans beyond this season and now he misses his first game in his NFL career. The problem for Brees is that no one will really know how long he is going to have to sit for the Saints and New Orleans could easily be out of the Play Off picture if they lose this weekend to their Divisional rivals who are 2-0.

Carolina have shown how a team can overcome injuries to win their first couple of games despite some Offensive inconsistencies. It might be a chance for them to put together their best performance on that side of the ball as Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton should both find some big running lanes against this Defensive Line.

The Saints haven't got a lot of pressure on the Quarter Back and they have struggled to get off the field in a similar manner to last season which should give the Panthers confidence in avenging their home loss from 2014.

Am I backing Carolina to cover though? No, I think the Saints can rally behind their back up Quarter Back and cover with this large amount of points behind them.

The media might only have had it confirmed on Friday that Drew Brees is out, but the rumours were there since last Sunday and Sean Payton would have had McCown preparing all week. He would love to get some support from Mark Ingram in the running game, while the Offensive Line has struggled, but this is a spot where McCown has performed in the past.

In 2007, McCown came in for an injured Jeff Garcia and threw for over 300 yards and 2 Touchdowns in a NFC South Divisional game although ironically that was against the New Orleans Saints for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I already mentioned the high covering rate for teams in their first game without their starting Quarter Back, while the Carolina Offense has struggled for consistency and can't be called upon to cover a big number.

The fact McCown's one and pretty much only big performance in the NFL came in relief for a starting Quarter Back is enough to think he can lead the Saints to the cover in a spot that should see a 0-2 squad rally to the cover at the least. It's another one unit play because it's Luke McCown under Center after all!


Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets Pick: You just have to love it when there is a huge overreaction that sees a spread make a huge move on the basis of two weeks of football.

Don't misunderstand me, I can't deny the Philadelphia Eagles have looked pretty terrible while the New York Jets have looked better than advertised, but this is not the best of spot for the latter who are being pounded by the public to cover 'just two points'.

Coming off Monday Night Football is difficult, but the New York Jets are now playing a non-Conference game prior to facing the Miami Dolphins in a Divisional battle. That alone might make this a bad spot, but the fact that game is going to be played in London is another distraction and the favourites go 3-8 against the spread the week prior to the International Series game in England.

DeMarco Murray might miss out for the Eagles who have had two disappointing games in the first couple of weeks of the season and Sam Bradford has to find a way to get going behind an Offensive Line that will be challenged by a very strong New York Jets Defensive Line. However, the Jets might miss Darrelle Revis this week which should open up some passing lanes.

On the other hand, Ryan Fitzpatrick has done just enough to make sure the Jets are 2-0, although he will be missing Eric Decker this week. Brandon Marshall should collect his numbers, but the Eagles have been pretty stout against the run and forcing Fitzpatrick to throw from third and long doesn't usually end well for his teams.

It just strikes me as a game that might not feature a lot of points and the Jets are 1-6 against the spread coming off a win as the underdog like they had on Monday Night Football. The Eagles are 5-1 against the spread as an underdog of three points or fewer under Chip Kelly and they can't look ahead to the big game with the Washington Redskins next week. With the distraction of London and the Jets overachieving in their first two games, I think a small interest on the underdog Philadelphia Eagles has to be worth backing.

All the money seems to be on the Jets this week in this game and fading the overreacting public looks the play.


Tampa Buccaneers @ Houston Texans Pick: It was a very big win for rookie Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the SuperDome last week, but backing that up might be difficult in a non-Conference game on the road.

Take a look at the spot- Tampa Bay have had a road game against a Divisional rival, this game and then they host NFC South rivals Carolina next week. A team that was sloppy against the Tennessee Titans from the AFC South in the opening week can't be overly trusted in my opinion to have the ability to repeat their big win from Week 2.

Winston is going to have some ups and downs in his rookie season and now faces a Defensive Line that can put the fear of God into any Quarter Back. The Tampa Bay Offensive Line hasn't been that effective in protection and Winston does have the tendency to hold onto the ball a little too long from his time at the Florida State Seminoles so might have the likes of JJ Watt, Vince Wilfork and Jadeveon Clowney in his face in this one.

It is not like Winston is going to have Doug Martin picking up huge chunks of yardage on the ground and might be in third and long a little too often for his liking. With Mike Evans still a little banged up and Austin Seferian-Jenkins has been ruled out for a few weeks so Winston might not have a lot of places to throw the ball with the expectation Jonathan Joseph will be on Vincent Jackson for much of the afternoon.

Lovie Smith may look at his Defense to propel them to victory and they should have some success in this one. Ryan Mallett just hasn't looked comfortable at Quarter Back and makes too many bad decisions, while the Offensive Line will be under pressure from the pass rush led by Jacquies Smith.

DeAndre Hopkins could be missing so Houston are missing a key piece of their Receiving corps and the continued absence of Arian Foster is a concern with the likes of Alfred Blue not getting it done. That might have something to do with the Offensive Line issues, so Houston will need Mallett to be at his absolute best if they are going to reverse their 0-2 start.

The game could come down to which of the two Quarter Backs makes the fewer mistakes and Ryan Mallett doesn't have that much more game time experience than Jameis Winston at this level. However, I love the spot for the Houston Texans who are desperate to get out of their 0-2 hole and facing a team who are off a big Divisional road win and facing another Divisional rival next week.

It just feels a natural spot for Winston and the Buccaneers to have a step back in their performance and there is a statistic I read that shows 0-2 teams are 19-10 against the spread when favoured by six points or higher. I think the Texans find a way to get this done and back in contention in the weak AFC South and cover the spread too.


San Diego Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: It isn't an ideal position for the San Diego Chargers to be playing back to back road games at the 1pm kick off time, although Mike McCoy has had them playing well in that spot. This is a non-Conference game though and I think the Chargers might have a tough time to stay with the Minnesota Vikings who are off a very impressive home win over the Detroit Lions.

The Chargers have had a hard time slowing down teams who want to run the ball against them over the first couple of weeks of the season and that doesn't bode well for them heading to Minnesota. That is because Adrian Peterson looked close to his best last week when trampling the Detroit Lions, although he needs to get the fumbling issues back under control.

Peterson helped the Minnesota Vikings wrack up 378 yards on the ground when they last hosted the San Diego Chargers in 2007 and he will be licking his chops at this match up. The Chargers have allowed 122 yards per game on the ground at 4.7 yards per carry and I expect Norv Turner to dial up Peterson's number early and often and he should keep the Offense chugging along.

It will help Teddy Bridgewater whose Offensive Line was a lot better last week than in the opening game at the San Francisco 49ers. That was partly because Peterson was given the ball and picking up large chunks on the ground and I expect a similar game plan to come to the fore in this one.

San Diego should also be able to run the ball effectively through Melvin Gordon and that will be what they need to do to make sure Philip Rivers is not under pressure behind this Offensive Line. If they can establish the run, Rivers is good enough to move the chains from third and manageable even without Antonio Gates and that is a key for the San Diego Chargers.

It is tough back to back road games though and the Chargers were 0-2 against the spread in that spot last season. I think Minnesota might have rediscovered their Offensive identity last week and I believe they are a better team than San Diego which makes the spread look a little out of sync here.

The public and the sharps seem to be on the Chargers, but I am going the other way and I think the Minnesota Vikings win and cover.


San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: I have picked the Arizona Cardinals to win and cover in their first two games of the season because I have felt they are under-rated and this is not the time to get off the bandwagon.

The San Francisco 49ers are not the force of the last few seasons, but this is still a big game for the Arizona Cardinals. Carson Palmer has never beaten the San Francisco 49ers so it is a big game for him personally, while this is a NFC West game that are always that little bit more important for teams.

This is a weaker San Francisco team than in recent years as I have said and they have been decimated Defensively. After a strong performance to open the season against the Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco were torn apart by the Pittsburgh Steelers through the air and Palmer with Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Juron Brown and Michael Floyd will be confident of doing the same.

I can't imagine there will be a lot of room for either Chris Johnson or David Johnson running the ball, but Arizona might not need to do that too much until later in the game when they want to control the clock. San Francisco didn't get any pressure on Ben Roethlisberger last week and Palmer has been very comfortable behind his Offensive Line and should have his way with this Secondary.

That puts the pressure on Colin Kaepernick to find some consistency from the Offense before they are down by three scores like last week. Carlos Hyde will be back, but Arizona haven't conceded too much on the ground and it might be down to Kaepernick to throw the ball to keep them in the team.

While there are some decent Receivers here, San Francisco's Offensive Line has struggled in protection and Kaepernick could be under some pressure. The Arizona Secondary have given away some yards as teams try to keep up with the Cardinals Offense, but they are better than what the statistics show and I like Arizona to create a couple of turnovers in this one.

The 49ers are 1-4 against the spread when set as the road underdog in a Divisional game in recent years while Bruce Arians has inspired his team to 8-2-1 against the spread as the home favourite. This has become a very, very tough team to visit and Arizona are also 5-0 against the spread when favoured by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

I like the Cardinals to get it done and cover what might be a big number at first glance, even if it means being on the same side as the public in this one.


Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The Buffalo Bills were put in their place by the New England Patriots in Week 2 and now they have a big AFC East game at the Miami Dolphins. With two teams in this Division already at 2-0, these two 1-1 teams will be desperate to avoid being dropped into the basement in what was seen as a promising season prior to kick off.

The Bills have gone 4-2 in the last six games against the Miami Dolphins although they were beaten here last season. Can they bounce back in this underdog spot? I certainly think it is a big possibility despite being a Dolphins fan.

One of the big issues against the Dolphins this season has been an awful Defensive Line performance which has seen them struggle to stop the run. The reports about Ndamukong Suh going rouge is troublesome considering the money paid to him and the Dolphins have been hammered on the ground which is exactly what Suh was supposed to help.

Now they face a run first Offense who have gained almost 5 yards per carry and should have LeSean McCoy ready to go. Tyrod Taylor didn't escape the big mistakes last week which has to be a concern, but he can run the ball and Miami might have some trouble stopping Buffalo rolling in this one, while Dan Carpenter won't miss too many kicks against his former team.

A lack of pressure up front thanks to the discord between the Defensive Line and Defensive Co-Ordinator Kevin Coyle hasn't helped Miami get to the Quarter Back and Cameron Wake remains banged up.

I am also expecting the Bills Defense to rebound after being picked apart by Tom Brady and the Patriots this season. They should be able to because Ryan Tannehill and the Offense here is simply not at that level and it is a big test for the fourth year Quarter Back.

It is very unlikely that Tannehill gets much support from the running game and that means the Bills will see him in third and long and allow this pass rush to get at him. They have given up a lot of yards through the air, but Andrew Luck and Tom Brady can do that to you and the Bills are better than the statistics show on that front. Luck was under siege in Week 1 and only improved the numbers in garbage time, and Tannehill might feel the rush for much of the afternoon.

The Dolphins are just 4-6 against the spread as the home favourite in a Divisional game, while they are 7-12 against the spread as the favourite of three points or fewer in recent years. I mentioned a statistic I had read previously which shows teams are 3-8 against the spread when favoured the week before a game in London.

Miami are also just 2-6 against the spread following a loss as the favourite and Buffalo are 6-4 against the spread as an underdog of three points or fewer. The money being pounded on the Bills without the spread being moved suggests this is another heavily backed public team, but I like Buffalo with the points on the road.


Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers Pick: There are a couple of emotional aspects at play on Monday Night Football as the Kansas City Chiefs somehow try and pick themselves up from blowing a late lead to lose to the Denver Broncos. On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers picked up a win over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2 and you know that was a game they were heavily invested in and had to win.

The spot might have favoured the Kansas City Chiefs in the last couple of years as the Packers are going to San Francisco next week, but Green Bay are looking to make Lambeau Field a fortress no one wants to visit and the 49ers are no longer the big NFC threat they have been.

Eddie Lacy might not be available, even if he was back in limited fashion on Friday, but James Starks can spell him effectively. Let's face facts though, this team is all about Aaron Rodgers and he has played lights out at home and will have his success against a Secondary that couldn't contain a faded Peyton Manning.

Manning beat the Chiefs with his mind and a late, efficient drive, but Rodgers will give them that for 60 minutes and it is hard to believe the Packers are going to score their points.

It comes down to what the Kansas City Chiefs can do against them and Jamaal Charles might rebound from a crucial fumble that gave the Broncos the win last week. Charles will have seen the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears produce effective ground games and he will have his chance both rushing and receiving out of the backfield.

Matt Forte had a big game against Green Bay and Charles can follow suit while also giving Alex Smith third and manageable conversions to pick up. Smith is still someone who perhaps manages the game more than being able to win it, but the Offensive Line hasn't helped him and Green Bay can get effective pressure on the Quarter Back.

The turnover battle is always key too and Rodgers has simply not turned the ball over at home, while the same is unlikely to be said of Smith. Green Bay are 30-14-1 against the spread as the home favourite in recent years and they are 7-1-1 in that spot since the beginning of the 2014 season.

I respect the fact that Andy Reid inspires his team as a road underdog, Kansas City going 7-3 against the spread in that spot since he took over as Head Coach, but this is a team that is 4-7 against the spread when coming in off a loss as the favourite. Green Bay simply aren't making mistakes at home and while Monday Night Football sees the favourite getting pounded, I think the Packers are the first favourites to cover in the final game of the week.

MY PICKS: New York Giants - 3 Points @ 1.91 Betway (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 3 Points @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 8 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Houston Texans - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 2 Points @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 2: 4-5, - 1.71 Units
Week 1: 5-2-1, + 6.46 Units

Season 2015: 9-7-1, + 4.75 Units
Season 2014: 77-80-2, - 8.47 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Week 2 Recap 2015 (September 23rd)

Week 2 of the NFL is in the books and it has been a very important one with key injuries to some of the teams expecting to challenge for the Super Bowl and some surprising 0-2 teams.

Some things haven't changed in the NFL though, and I will discuss those soon, while I try and figure whether we are about to see some big changes in other franchises.

Without further ado, let's get on with my Week 2 Recap as well as the Power Rankings and Week 2 Picks breakdown.

New England Still the Team to Beat in the AFC East

I was really looking forward to seeing how the Buffalo Bills would do against the New England Patriots in Week 2 and genuinely believed the home team could lay down a marker and show this is going to be anything but the usual cakewalk for the Patriots in the AFC East this season.

Beating down the Indianapolis Colts and getting the game at home meant there was a lot of talking in Buffalo this week and many of the 'wiseguys' in Vegas were also backing the Bills to record a statement win.

I guess we all should have learned that you simply can't disregard New England while Tom Brady is Quarter Backing the team and Number 12 was pretty spectacular against a Defense that could be one of the best in the NFL. They didn't look that way on Sunday as New England tagged Buffalo for 42 points and once again highlighted that there is only so far you can go with a Quarter Back that has struggled for a home through his career in Tyrod Taylor.

The Pats have put a big rival in the AFC East in their place and they would have enjoyed seeing the Miami Dolphins lay an egg in a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. There are issues with the coaching staff and the players in Miami and that looks a situation that could potentially get ugly very quickly despite some good moves in Free Agency and the Draft.

Even the 2-0 and New York Jets won't really worry New England because Ryan Fitzpatrick simply is never far away from bombing out and I do think the Patriots can dominate this Division again.

After the excitement of going into Week 2 with every team at 1-0 in the Division and Buffalo looking like a real contender to knock off New England, Week 3 looks to have a much more familiar feel for the fans in the AFC East.

Is the Drew Brees/Sean Payton Era over in New Orleans?

I am a big fan of Drew Brees and one of the biggest regrets has to be when my team the Dolphins passed him over in favour of Daunte Culpepper ten years ago because they believed the Quarter Back's shoulder was shot.

Brees proved he was far from done and found the perfect home in New Orleans along with Head Coach Sean Payton, a partnership that led to a Super Bowl win.

Father Time remains undefeated though and New Orleans have made some moves which suggested that they are perhaps rebooting things here, while some reports suggested they would try and move on from Brees at the end of the season. There is also a power struggle going on behind the scenes between Tom Benson and Rita Benson whereby the latter winning could see Sean Payton walk as Head Coach.

He might not need to walk if the 0-2 Saints can't turn things around after an embarrassing home defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, especially as Brees looked to have damaged his shoulder in that loss. The rumour mill believes Brees could be missing time on the field and that is only going to make the decision to reboot and move on from the Quarter Back that much easier especially if he is to miss extended time.

No one will ever doubt Brees' position at the franchise and he will never have to buy another drink in New Orleans, but I am starting to wonder if this is the beginning of the end of the Brees/Payton partnership. I wouldn't be surprised if New Orleans just take the hit on the Brees contract, because they are unlikely to find too many trading partners on his current deal, at the end of the season, but his departure could easily coincide with Payton's if the Saints can't pick themselves up and start winning games.

Can the Dallas Cowboys Overcome Key Injuries to Win the NFC East?

The Dallas Cowboys are up to 2-0 thanks to a second Divisional win in consecutive weeks, but losing one of the two pictured players would have been a blow... Losing both could make it very tough for Dallas to be in a position to win this Division by the time both Tony Romo and Dez Bryant return.

Bryant was lost after Week 1 and could miss up to 12 weeks with a foot injury according to some reports, while Romo broke his collarbone for the second time in his career in Week 2 and is likely to be out for up to 8 weeks.

Those are some huge losses for Dallas and I don't think there will be too many out there proclaiming their belief in Brandon Weedon as the starting Quarter Back as Jerry Jones did on Tuesday.

It only magnifies the decision to let DeMarco Murray walk in Free Agency (Dallas did offer him enough money to stay, but Murray ultimately felt unloved) as the Cowboys haven't been as effective running the ball without him. They need to establish a running game to give Weedon as much support as possible, while the Defense needs to keep up the play they have produced for much of the first two weeks.

Reinforcements on that unit look to return in the next few weeks so Dallas might be relying on Weedon to manage them through games, but the Arizona Cardinals showed how difficult that can be last season after losing Carson Palmer. The Dallas Offensive Line should be able to open more holes to at least run the ball and keep the team in third and manageable, but none of the Running Backs on the depth chart have looked capable of making up for Murray's loss.

The schedule isn't kind to Dallas in the coming weeks as they face the likes of Atlanta Falcons, New England Patriots, the New York Giants, the Seattle Seahawks and the Philadelphia Eagles without Romo and Bryant, while the game in New Orleans is always a tough test (well it was before New Orleans lost 6 in a row there).

Dallas could easily be 4-5 by the time Tony Romo is back, but the back end of the schedule is manageable and I don't doubt the Cowboys can make it back to the Play Offs.

One benefit for them has to be the Division and the fact the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles are both 0-2 and no one really believes in the Washington Redskins even at 1-1. It doesn't look a Division that would see anyone pull away from Dallas even if they are 4-5 going into Week 11 and so I still believe they can overcome injuries and get back to the Play Offs.

Chip Kelly Under Pressure to get Things Right in Philadelphia

When Chip Kelly won the battle behind the scenes to effectively take over as General Manager as well as Head Coach of the Philadelphia Eagles this off-season, he was automatically under more pressure to make sure he makes the right moves.

Kelly is clearly very confident in his system, but to jettison names like LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin, as well as making big changes on the Offensive Line and trade away Nick Foles for Sam Bradford meant he couldn't afford a poor start to the season.

A 0-2 type start.

The kind of start the Eagles have made.

It was an ugly loss to the Dallas Cowboys at home in Week 2 as DeMarco Murray continues to struggle to find the running lanes that the Dallas Cowboys opened for him last season, while Bradford was horrible at Quarter Back. The Defense tried to play their part, but it is the Offense that Kelly has been come to known for and their failure is a reflection on the Head Coach/General Manager.

Troy Aikman made the point on Sunday that the Eagles have only played two good Quarters out of the eight they have competed in this season and the pressure is going to come down on Kelly.

Missing the Play Offs last season was a big disappointment, but when you make the moves Kelly did in chasing some big names out of town you can't afford a poor season. The Philadelphia fans have been known for being an impatient bunch who are quick to voice their displeasure and returning back to Lincoln Financial Field at less than 2-2 might see Kelly hear it all from the stands.

Which 0-2 Team is Best Placed to Make the Play Offs?

There is a statistic that says that only 12% of teams who start the season 0-2 will go on and make the Play Offs (since 1990) and there are a number of pre-season favourites that have fallen into that hole.

The Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks have all lost their first two games.

Four of those teams made the Play Offs last season, while the Colts and Seahawks was a favourite Super Bowl pick of many.

Baltimore have regularly been a Play Off team in recent seasons and many expected the New Orleans Saints to bounce back from a disappointing 2014 season, but it simply hasn't worked out for these teams.

So which has the best chance to overcome the odds and join the 12% who have made the Play Offs?

I'd have to go with the Indianapolis Colts to overcome some real conflicts behind the scenes between Ryan Grigson and Chuck Pegano because of the terrible Division they play in. Andrew Luck has feasted on the AFC South teams since coming into the NFL and no team has won both games in the Division so they look to have the best chance of turning things around.

The Seattle Seahawks will find it tough to beat out the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West if Carson Palmer remains healthy, while the Baltimore Ravens have to beat the Cincinnati Bengals this week, although both can fight back for Wild Card spots.

Philadelphia and the New York Giants will have seen Dallas hurt badly by injuries so are also far from finished, but I would pick the Indianapolis Colts if I was told that only one of the nine teams at 0-2 will be making the Play Offs at the end of the season.

Top Ten

1) Green Bay Packers (2-0): They only beat the NFC Champions from last season which gives them the confidence to go on and earn the Number 1 Seed in the NFC this time around.

2) Arizona Cardinals (2-0): I think the Cardinals are still severely under-rated in some circles and this is a team that can win it all if they have better health than last season.

3) New England Patriots (2-0): I almost put them up to Number 2 after an impressive beat down of the Buffalo Bills on the road, but the New England Patriots remain in this spot as the team to beat in the AFC.

4) Denver Broncos (2-0): Peyton Manning looked so much more comfortable running his own Offense out of the shotgun, but will Gary Kubiak change his mind about his own system.

5) Atlanta Falcons (2-0): Matt Ryan's Offensive Line needs to be a little more solid, but the Falcons have looked better on both sides of the ball compared with 2014.

6) Cincinnati Bengals (2-0): Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals seem to be a dark horse at this stage of the season, but they will have to prove themselves going forward to remain as high as I have them.

7) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1): The Offense looks like it is about to get more dangerous with Le'Veon Bell returning to team duties, but it is the Defense that will hold back Pittsburgh.

8) Dallas Cowboys (2-0): Injuries to Tony Romo and Dez Bryant means I had to drop them down the Rankings, but the Dallas Cowboys could still be the team to beat in the NFC East.

9) Indianapolis Colts (0-2): I can't see the Colts playing as badly as they have in the first couple of games, but they need to prove it on the field with a Divisional game at Tennessee this week.

10) Seattle Seahawks (0-2): There were signs that the Seahawks are still going to be amongst the contenders in their loss to the Packers, but I would be worried by another Fourth Quarter lead given up.

Bottom Five

32) Chicago Bears (0-2): Two home losses, albeit to the teams I consider amongst the best in the NFL, and an injury to Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery means the Chicago Bears might take some turning around.

31) New Orleans Saints (0-2): The Saints still can't get off the field on the Defensive side of the ball, while Drew Brees is hurt and the Offense has been too inconsistent.

30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1): Jameis Winston was a lot better in Week 2 than he was in Week 1 and winning in the SuperDome is not easy, but I am not sold on the Buccaneers just yet.

29) Tennessee Titans (1-1): Marcus Mariota was brought back down to earth by the Cleveland Browns and the Titans suffered a couple of key injuries.

28) Miami Dolphins (1-1): This might be frustration on my part, but the Miami Dolphins look a mess with reports of discord between the coaching staff and players and a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars was just ugly.

Week 2 Picks Recap

The picks went into the final two games of Week 2 in a decent position to come out with a winning record, but the three points on the Seattle Seahawks and the Indianapolis Colts didn't work out to produce a small loss.

A couple of the picks were just plain ugly and didn't stand much of a chance after the early stages, the worst of which might have been the Buffalo Bills being outplayed by the New England Patriots.

It could have been different if Seattle hadn't thrown an Interception in the Fourth Quarter of the loss to the Green Bay Packers as they looked to be driving effectively for what would have been a tying score.

Even so, I can't complain too much as I am still up through the first two weeks and I will continue to try and keep focused and get Week 3 back into the positive.

As always, you can read my Week 3 Picks on the dedicated post which should be up on Thursday with picks being made through Saturday and I will have updated the season totals on that page too.

NFL Week 3 Picks 2014 (September 18-22)

After a poor start to the season, it looked like Week 2 was going to produce a big turnaround of fortunes, but the last three picks let me down. It was still a step in the right direction, but I was hoping for an even bigger week and will be looking for Week 3 to help provide that as we have started to get a real feel for how teams are going to perform.

Week 2 Thoughts

Teams Blowing Big Leads: The first two weeks of the season have been strange in teams getting into strong winning positions and then blowing so leads without a real noticeable shift in momentum.

In Week 1 it was the likes of the Denver Broncos, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the New Orleans Saints and the Jacksonville Jaguars that all blew double digit leads and were hanging on or losing games.

That trend continued with San Francisco and the Indianapolis Colts both doing the same and you have to wonder whether that is going to be a feature of the season. It is definitely something I will be keeping an eye on over the next two weeks, especially when it comes to handicapping against big numbers.

Key Injuries: Like many NFL fans, I am a Fantasy Football player and it has been a few seasons when I have had a day of injuries like the one that just went past. It wasn't just my team, but Jamaal Charles, AJ Green, Knowshon Moreno, Mark Ingram, Ryan Matthews and Robert Griffin all looking like missing significant time.

That is one of the main reasons I have always said that picking a Super Bowl winner in August is nigh on impossible as some injuries can really take away big parts of a team- can Kansas City really be considered a Play Off contender without Charles and can Cincinnati overcome a long term absence of Green?

Thankfully it seems neither are going to be missing long parts of the season, but it is generally the teams that can get hot towards the end of the season with a decent health about them that are most likely to win the big games.

Adrian Peterson a 'child abuser'? I think the NFL is in a very tough position at the moment after the Ray Rice issue so the last thing they would have wanted to hear was Adrian Peterson had 'admitted' to causing injury to his child while disciplining them.

He has said he did it but didn't mean to cause the lacerations that were inflicted and it does look like he has gone too far despite discipline being fine by me... However, I don't think this big Running Back should be hitting his kid with such force that he cuts them and leaves scars so you can understand the anger in some quarters.

Minnesota really messed up with their handling of the situation as they pulled Peterson from Week 2, but decided to reinstate him for Week 3... Then public pressure and, more importantly, from the sponsors meant the Vikings changed their mind and have effectively pulled the plug on this season for Peterson.

The rumour is now that they will release Peterson at the end of the season and all because this parent couldn't hand out punishments and use discipline methods that perhaps didn't involve beating his kid till he bled.

Teams that have started 0-2 have little chance of reaching the Play Offs: Most of you should have read the statistics- only one of the last 60 teams to begin the season 0-2 have made it to the Play Offs so this has to be a worrying time for the New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts.

The Kansas City Chiefs and the New York Giants also sit at that record, but the Saints and Colts were expected to be amongst the best teams in the NFL and both have lost games they should have won.

It can be argued the Saints aren't that far away from being 2-0 with a couple of better breaks, while the Colts had no business losing on Monday night to the Philadelphia Eagles and the chances are only one of those will make it to the Play Offs.

If you gave me the choice of picking which I would believe can overcome the odds, it would be the Colts in the weaker AFC South Division which I still expect they can win. The Saints aren't out of it either, but they could have a much tougher time getting above the Carolina Panthers who have started very well, although it would still not be the biggest surprise if both those teams dig out of the hole they find themselves in.

Top Five

1) Denver Broncos (2-0): They haven't looked themselves up to this point and now travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks with revenge on their minds.

2) Cincinnati Bengals (2-0): Even without AJ Green, the Cincinnati Bengals battered Atlanta on all sides and look the best team in the AFC North.

3) Carolina Panthers (2-0): No team has won the NFC South back to back times since the realignment in 2002, but the Panthers look like they are desperate to erase that record.

4) Philadelphia Eagles (2-0): They have overcome two big deficits to win games and the Eagles might be the fittest team in the NFL.

5) Arizona Cardinals (2-0): How long can they survive at the top of the NFC West with Drew Stanton behind Center?

Bottom Five

32) Oakland Raiders (0-2): A rookie Quarter Back and a franchise that has struggled for over a decade are getting ready to travel to London. The James Jones double fumble highlights Oakland's ineptitude.

31) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2): The Jaguars should have beaten Philadelphia in Week 1, but were totally outplayed at Washington last week.

30) New York Giants (0-2): New York blew a big chance to win last week against Arizona at home and won't have too many better opportunities than hosting the Houston Texans to get off the mark.

29) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2): Home losses to teams being Quarter Backed by Derek Anderson and Austin Davis doesn't bode well for the Tampa Bay season.

28) New Orleans Saints (0-2): I can't imagine they will stay here for long, but the Saints have been a mess on Defense to the point that Sean Payton was caught hollering at Rob Ryan towards the end of the loss to the Cleveland Browns.

Week 3 Picks

With the top six picks being split 3-3 last week and the two minimum unit picks both coming in, it produced a small winning record for the week, although not enough to turn around the season totals.

I was disappointed in the way the Packers, Broncos and 49ers all blew their chance to cover with stupid mistakes, but I won't ever be disappointed when coming through with a winning week. I just hope to back that up with another decent week this time around too.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: I did say there would be a big overreaction to results in Week 1 and the Atlanta Falcons were being touted as a dark horse for the Super Bowl after taking advantage of errors made by the New Orleans Saints.

Things came back down to earth for Matt Ryan and the Falcons last week in a defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals which could have been by a much wider margin than the 14 points it ended up being.

There are injuries on the Defensive Line for the Buccaneers which should mean a cleaner pocket for Ryan and wider running lanes for Steven Jackson, the latter who has helped the Falcons move the chains at 5 yards per carry. Ryan might not have Roddy White available on Thursday, but he still has Julio Jones and I expect Atlanta to score at least 28 points.

We then have to shift the questioning to whether Tampa Bay can find enough scoring to keep this competitive and I am not sure Josh McCown is the man to do that- he has struggled against the pass rush generated by the Carolina Panthers and St Louis Rams, but he should have more time in this one.

My concern are the absolutely awful Interceptions McCown has thrown and I don't trust him to make the right plays in this one, even if he should be backed by a decent ground attack even in the absence of Doug Martin. The feeling is that Martin will play anyway so the Buccaneers should keep McCown in a decent position to make plays, but I don't trust him to avoid another terrible Interception that lets Atlanta get away and cover.

The Falcons had a poor season in 2013, but they did beat Tampa Bay while covering the spread at home and Atlanta are now 5-1-1 against the spread in the last 7 of this series. They might just end up with another win by a Touchdown or more in this one.


Dallas Cowboys @ St Louis Rams Pick: This is a big game for two 1-1 teams that have an outside belief that they can make the Play Offs, although I personally think there are doubts about both teams capabilities of doing that.

The problem for St Louis will always be trying to find enough Offense with a back up Quarter Back for the season and I think that is why the Dallas Cowboys will win this game despite their Defense not being the best.

However, that unit has played well in the first two games and it was only the mistakes of the Offense that cost them the game against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1. Last week there was a clear change in game plan from the Cowboys with DeMarco Murray carrying the Offense and I think he can have another strong outing after the Rams have struggled against the run in the first two weeks.

If Murray is running hard, Tony Romo won't have the same level of pressure that he sometimes carries on his shoulders and he should be able to make plays to keep the chains moving from third and manageable situations.

Zak Stacy could have a similar impact as Murray in this one, but the big question will be if Austin Davis can avoid mistakes at Quarter Back and manage the game effectively. I am just not sure he can make enough big plays if the Rams fall behind and I like the Cowboys to make it back to back wins.

The Cowboys aren't a great road favourite under Jason Garrett, but this could be a rare occasion they manage to cover in that spot.


Houston Texans @ New York Giants Pick: There was every chance that the Houston Texans could have been a leading contender for a bounce back season with their Defensive Line, but I am still a little surprised to see them at 2-0. The schedule has been very kind though and I think the New York Giants, despite being a poor 0-2, could be able to overcome them this week.

If it wasn't for a number of turnovers and mistakes from the Wide Receivers, the Giants likely would have beaten the Arizona Cardinals last week. One of the big problems they have had is establishing a ground game, although this is an area where the Houston Defense has struggled and Rashad Jennings might not have a better chance to get going.

There is no guarantee that happens, but the Giants may at least give Eli Manning a chance by getting into third and manageable situations. Anything else could be a problem for Manning who has not been helped by his Receivers nor the Offensive Line, although a few more decent grabs could get this Offense moving.

Houston have also been struggling on Offense with scores being produced by the Defense forcing turnovers or the Special Teams units. Both of those units could have strong games again this week, but Arian Foster may be missing and the Giants have actually controlled the rush Offense pretty effectively so far.

That means Ryan Fitzpatrick needing to make plays and I can't say I have a lot of faith in the former Buffalo Bill Quarter Back even if he has avoided the mistakes that have plagued him previously. Fitzpatrick might find more holes against this Secondary, especially if the Offensive Line continues to protect him, but he can't be put in a position where he has to force things as that is when his problems mount.

I am a little concerned that the Giants have to play Washington on Thursday night football this week, but this is a 'must win' game and I think New York takes it.


Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The Adrian Peterson issue continues to dominate the headlines at the Minnesota Vikings and his absence could be seriously felt in this game at the New Orleans Saints. Matt Cassel will be relied on to make more plays in this one a week after combusting in a loss to the New England Patriots and I think it will be another tough day for Cassel.

As poor as the Saints Defense has played, I think they have underachieved and this is the kind of game that should play into Rob Ryan's hands, especially if the Offense can build another big lead. While the Saints have blown coverages, they should be able to get more pressure on Cassel against this Offensive Line and the mistakes made by the Quarter Back could rear their head in this one too.

I have little doubt that the New Orleans Saints will be able to move the ball effectively at home, especially with an Offense that has played well in the first two games. Drew Brees to Jimmy Graham remains close to indefensible, while the speed of Brandin Cooks and Kenny Stills should stretch the field effectively.

New Orleans have a very strong 15-0-1 record against the spread in their last 16 home games as the favourites under Sean Payton and this is a team that can score lots of points at the Superdome. They are also 10-3 against the spread coming off a straight up loss under Payton and I think the Saints are going to win this one going away.


Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns Pick: The Cleveland Browns have impressed with their performances over the last game and a half and they will be looking forward to the visit of the Baltimore Ravens, a team they reserve a special hatred for.

The Ravens have the benefit of an additional three days of preparation for this game, while Cleveland are coming off an emotional win over the New Orleans Saints a week after only narrowly falling short against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Baltimore did see their 11 win sequence in this series come to an end on their last visit here, but I like them to back up their win over the Steelers by moving above 0.500 for the first time.

Despite the release of Ray Rice, Baltimore are clearly very focused and they have been able to run the ball fairly effectively in the first two weeks of the season. That in turn has made life a little easier for Joe Flacco, although the Quarter Back could certainly be sharper than he has been.

The Offense in general should have a decent shout of producing strong numbers in this game, even if Bernard Pierce is out of the line up, because the Browns Defense hasn't been that effective. The Baltimore Defense will also feel they are ready for what the surprising Browns have done the first two weeks of the season, especially as they will have more game tape to view and found a pass rush last week.

If they can keep Brian Hoyer under some sort of pressure, the Ravens may just hold the key to ensuring they move to 2-1 in their Divisional games and start putting the sorry Ray Rice saga behind them.


Been a busy last couple of days so the rest of the picks have been put down without the explanation this time around. You can see them in the 'MY PICKS' section below.

0 Unit Selections: San Diego Chargers + 2.5 Points, Philadelphia Eagles - 5 Points, Tennessee Titans + 7 Points, Arizona Cardinals + 3 Points, Seattle Seahawks - 4 Points, Chicago Bears + 2.5 Points

MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons - 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New York Giants - 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints - 10 Points @ 2.10 BWin (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 1 Point @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 7 Points @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 14 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs + 4 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 3 Points @ 2.04 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 8-9, - 1.68 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Week 3 Picks 2013 (September 19-23)

The second week of the new NFL season is already in the books and we are already beginning to see those teams that could be in for a long season and those that are looking to make waves. Below I have a few thoughts from last week, the new top five and bottom five and then the picks for Week 3.

Week 2 Thoughts

All the 0-2 teams are in desperation mode when it comes to making the Play Offs: Over the last four years, no team that has begun the season 0-2 have gone on to make the Play Offs and that doesn't bode well for some of the teams in the NFL this time around.

While there are some teams that have unsurprisingly lost two games in a row, for example the Jacksonville Jaguars, but the likes of Washington and Minnesota, who made the Play Offs last season, and Pittsburgh and the New York Giants will be extremely disappointed with their starts.

I think the stat is that only 10% of teams that have started 0-2 have made it to the Play Offs since 1990 and I wouldn't want to back any of these teams bucking the trend. If someone held a gun to my head, I would perhaps say one of the NFC East teams could possibly become one of the few teams that does make the post-season after this start as that Division doesn't look like one that will be dominated by any single team.

The New York Giants started 2007 with this record and won the SuperBowl- while I would be surprised if they manage that again, they and Washington are the teams most likely to get themselves out of this hole in my opinion, but this weekend is huge for both teams with a winnable games at Carolina and hosting Detroit respectively.

New England will get better as their Receivers spend more time in their system: I know a lot of people are down on the New England Patriots, but it seems to have been forgotten that they are 2-0 and they remain the team to beat in the AFC East.

There is a lot of inexperience in the Receiving corps for the Patriots, but you can look at things the other way round and say the Receivers are getting in a position to make catches but are perhaps being hindered by nerves with too many drops.

I can only see that area improving as they get more and more comfortable playing in the system and also having more time spent with Tom Brady in practice. The return of Rob Gronkowski may also relieve some of the pressure on the younger players on the roster and I do expect this Offense to improve as the season goes on.

How much fun to be a London NFL fan: With tickets being priced up to £100, how many people are going to be impressed that the four teams coming over to London are a combined 1-7 after the first two weeks of the season?

You'll get the spin from the TV networks and NFL UK as to the merits of the teams, and I am looking forward to seeing the likes of Troy Polamalu and Adrian Peterson, but these are some bad teams coming over this time around outside of the San Francisco 49ers.

The best thing is London gets to 'enjoy' the terrible Jaguars for another four years after this one and that is a team that looks like it is going to get a lot worse before things turn around.

Trent Richadson traded to the Indianapolis Colts: This was a late piece of business as I was actually putting this thread together and I was stunned by Cleveland's decision to move Trent Richardson on considering he was their first pick in the Draft last year.

To compound things, Cleveland actually gave up a few picks to move up and take St Louis Rams Number 2 Pick last year, but the new regime have made it clear that they need to start all over again on Offense.

The Defense looks good, but the Browns are going to struggle to score a lot of points this season although they are bringing in Willis McGahee in to take over as the starting Running Back by all accounts. Now the fans have to go through a season of struggle after all the excitement in pre-season, but Cleveland could make a real push for the Number 1 pick in the Draft as they 'challenge' Jacksonville for that position.

Indianapolis will be happy with what they have picked up and Trent Richardson is going to be a serviceable Running Back for them, but the Colts have a lot of problems on the Offensive Line and their Defense and I am not sure this move helps them make it back to the Play Offs this season.

However, Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw will give the Colts a strong rushing game and that may give Andrew Luck a little more time in the pocket and this does look a good move for them.

Top Five

1) Denver Broncos (2-0): Another beating was handed out by the Denver Broncos last weekend and there is a lot of positives about this squad.

2) Seattle Seahawks (2-0): After a tough first week of the season, Seattle's second consecutive blowout of the San Francisco 49ers gives them control of the NFC West and potential claim to being the best team in this Conference.

3) New England Patriots (2-0): Despite some of the Offensive mishaps, the Patriots are still unbeaten and the Defense looks like it can contain opponents enough to help New England continue winning.

4) Houston Texans (2-0): Houston could easily be 0-2 as they have recovered to win their first two games and that character and heart is hard to ignore.

5) New Orleans Saints (2-0): New Orleans should have blown out Tampa Bay last week, but they let them hang around as the Offense is still not quite on the same page.

Bottom Five

32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2): The Offense could barely do anything right against Oakland last weekend and the team now go into Week 3 as a massive 20 point underdog at Seattle.

31) Cleveland Browns (0-2): Brandon Weeden is out, Trent Richardson is gone as the two First Round Draft choices from last season are no good for the Browns. The Week 13 home game against Jacksonville may decide which of those teams 'wins' the Number 1 pick in the Draft.

30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2): The Defense kept them in the game against New Orleans last weekend, but the Offense had another terrible game. Josh Freeman wants out by all accounts and the Buccaneers don't seem to be heading anywhere.

29) Carolina Panthers (0-2): What a way to lose a game- Carolina gave up a Touchdown with seconds remaining in Buffalo and this is another Offense not quite on the same page as one another.

28) Washington Redskins (0-2): Robert Griffin is hobbled and the Defense can't stop anybody which leaves the Redskins in a tough spot in the NFC East.

Week 3 Picks

Barring an awful Offensive performance from the New Orleans Saints, it was a very strong week for the picks in Week 2 and that has brought the season back into the black. This week has a lot more close games to pick from and hopefully the picks can continue with the momentum of last week.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: It is not very often that the SuperBowl Champions and the Baltimore Ravens will be set as an underdog at home, but I still believe that the Houston Texans are going to be a little too good and win this game.

I am not as high on Joe Flacco as some seem to be and Baltimore have lost a lot of key pieces in the off-season and don't quite look themselves at the moment. They were sloppy last week in a win over Cleveland and the Ravens are still getting some kinks out of their performance.

It is not as though the Texans have been winning games easily. but I think they will be able to move the chains a little more consistently of the two teams. Both will likely go to the air to move the Offenses and I like Andre Johnson/DeAndre Hopkins to make more plays than Torrey Smith/Marlo Brown and I like Houston.

However, I don't want to under-estimate a Baltimore team that have to be a little mad that they are dogged at home so I will keep units to a minimum.


New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Both of these teams need to win this game desperately, but I do think the New York Giants are going to be a little too good for Carolina this week.

The Panthers are going into a bye to try and right their ship, but they haven't performed well in this spot over the last four years, losing all 4 games against the spread ahead of their bye.

Carolina just haven't looked like they are consistently on the same page and I am expecting a big day from Eli Manning to prove the difference between the teams. It will put Ron Rivera very much on the hot seat in Carolina, but the Giants do look a better team with more upside in this game.

New York are also 18-11 against the spread as the road favourite in recent years.


Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: Green Bay will be going into their bye next week and they have performed well in that position in recent years and I expect them to win this game too.

The Packers should have enough Offense to make life tough for Cincinnati and I still believe the Green Bay Defense is a little under-rated. They played well against Washington last weekend and a lot of the yards they gave up came after Green Bay had built a big lead in the game.

This is also a tough spot for Cincinnati as the game is coming between two Divisional games and the Bengals are also on a short week. They could keep up for a while, but the pressure of being in a shoot-out may work against Andy Dalton in the end and he may make one mistake that leaves Green Bay with the win.


Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The New Orleans Saints have been a strong home favourite under Sean Payton and this is a tough place for any visiting team to play and I expect the same for the Arizona Cardinals this weekend.

I just feel the New Orleans Defense will be able to make enough big plays to set them on their way in this one, while the passing attack led by Drew Brees may be able to get back on track after a couple of inconsistent weeks.

Arizona just haven't defended the pass well enough and Larry Fitzgerald being banged up will make it more difficult for Carson Palmer to keep up in this one.


San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans Pick: This is a tough spot for the Tennessee Titans after they blew a big lead against their Divisional rivals the Houston Texans last week and now they have to deal with Kenny Britt and his throwing his toys out of the pram.

Tennessee are up against a San Diego Defense that has struggled to defend the pass and is playing back to back road games, although I am not convinced that Jake Locker is capable of taking advantage of that consistently.

Philip Rivers is playing very effectively from the Quarter Back position for San Diego and I expect he will make some plays in this one, but he has to be careful of the Tennessee pass rush which has produced 7 sacks already this season. Ryan Mathews should find some running room to ease the pressure on Rivers and the Chargers are 5-2 against the spread as the road underdog since the beginning of last season.

There is every chance Tennessee struggle to get up for this game after coming so close to knocking off Houston and I'll take the points but only for a unit.


Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins Pick: While I have been impressed with the way Miami have begun this season, I don't think I am ready to see the Dolphins as a favourite to beat a team as talented as Atlanta.

Granted, the Falcons are missing a number of key players, while others are banged up, coming into this week, but they have an advantage at the Quarter Back position and I don't like Miami's chances of slowing down Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez in this game.

The Dolphins will get pressure on Ryan and that will give them a real chance to move to 3-0, but Atlanta have such a powerful Offense that you have to think Miami are going to feel the pressure of staying with them at times.

It should be a close game and so taking the points may be the best option.


Chicago Bears @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: It will come down to whether Jay Cutler can steer clear of some of the mistakes that have blighted his career as to whether Chicago can remain unbeaten or whether Pittsburgh can get their own season back on track.

However, it is hard to see how the Steelers move the chains in this one after their poor Offensive showing the first two weeks of the season, especially against a tough Bears Defense.

The Bears have been a decent road favourite in recent years (9-3 against the spread in last few years), while teams playing in London have a poor record against the spread in their final game before travelling to the United Kingdom as the Steelers will be doing next Sunday.


Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos Pick: The way the Denver Broncos have played makes them the big favourite to win this game and move to 3-0, but Peyton Manning will have to be careful now the Offensive Line has a new Left Tackle to protect his blind side.

Oakland certainly get some pressure on the Quarter Back having picked up 9 sacks already, but Manning is capable of getting the ball out of his hands quick enough to negate that and he has plenty of weapons to choose from. Knowshon Moreno provided an effective ground game too last week, although it has been tough to run against the Raiders so far. However, I expect Manning throwing the ball will open up the running lanes and the Broncos should be able to score plenty of points against a banged up Secondary.

That means the pressure will be on Terrelle Pryor to keep the Raiders in the game- while he has shown plenty of athleticism behind Center, Pryor will need to make plays with his arm if Oakland are to make this a competitive game. Denver have shut down the running game of Baltimore and the New York Giants this season, but it is possible to move the chains through the air against them.

That is an area that will improve now Champ Bailey is expected to return, while Denver have got some pressure up front. The Oakland Wide Receivers have been guilty of too many drops early in the season and that will be a problem in a game where Denver are unlikely to make those mistakes.

The Broncos beat Oakland comfortably twice last season and they are 3-1 against the spread as a double-digit favourite. 

MY PICKS: Houston Texans - 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
New York Giants - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers + 3 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 14.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2013: 11-7, + 2.96 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units