This is the final three days of the Indian Wells tournament as the two Premier Event Semi Finals are played on the Friday as well as the two remaining Quarter Finals from the Masters tournament.
It has been a fun tournament as far as viewing has gone, but not a good one for my picks even if the season has been strong to this point. I will be hoping that there will be a bounce back in Miami next week, but there is no reason to go chasing after the losses, because that will always lead to more mistakes and further punishment.
If things go to plan tonight, it could be the first time the 'big four' of the men's game are competing in the Semi Final of the same tournament since the Australian Open in 2012... That is a staggering length of time considering all four have actually won Grand Slam titles in that period, but have not all put it together at the same time.
Both Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic will be hoping to upset the apple-cart though and prove they are not far away from joining the Grand Slam winner club that is very exclusive amongst current players on the Tour.
Tomas Berdych + 3.5 games v Roger Federer: I still believe that Roger Federer will find a way to battle through to the Semi Final, but this could be too many games to give up to Tomas Berdych who has been playing well this week. The win over Lukas Rosol wasn't the most fluent performance that Berdych has produced, but he won't be intimidated by Roger Federer on the other side of the court and they have had a lot of tight matches in recent seasons to suggest this one will be close too.
The edge has to be given to Federer on the titles he has won at Indian Wells and the Swiss star has also chosen to skip Miami next week which means all of his thoughts are on another title here. He has played aggressively and been serving well and I think Federer will pose Berdych plenty of problems.
However, Berdych has also been serving very well for the most part this week and I expect him to put pressure on Federer whose own serve can have some sloppy moments these days.
My feeling is that this match goes three sets and Federer will then find a way to come through. However, their last four matches have been highly competitive and split with two wins apiece so I will take the games in this one rather than backing Federer to come through in three sets.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Milos Raonic: Rafael Nadal had a sloppy win over Donald Young earlier in the week, but looked a lot more like himself when seeing off Gilles Simon in the last Round and I expect him to beat Milos Raonic in a tight Quarter Final.
With the serve that Raonic possesses, it is never going to be an easy task to beat the Canadian on the hard courts, but Nadal is capable of getting enough balls in play to find mistakes in the Raonic game. As well as Milos Raonic played against Tommy Robredo, it is a completely different test against Nadal who has the forehand that can exploit what Raonic can do with his backhand.
Nadal will have to serve well if he is to keep Raonic at bay in this one, but this is a match up that should be right up the Spaniard's street in what he is going to see on the court. Of course no one really wants to face a huge server that can take away points very quickly, but I do think Nadal will make enough returns to force Raonic to play a lot of shots.
This one could be decided by a single break of serve from Nadal as he comes through 76, 64.
MY PICKS: Toms Berdych + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 17-20, - 9.30 Units (74 Units Staked, - 12.57% Yield)
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Friday, 20 March 2015
Thursday, 19 March 2015
Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2015 (March 19th)
Wednesday was slightly annoying despite a positive record for the day because it does feel that at least two more picks should have been rewarded with winners. Tomas Berdych won the first set against Lukas Rosol very comfortably but allowed the momentum to get away from him in the second set before recovering to book his place in the Quarter Final.
The Serena Williams pick was even more frustrating as she found a way to battle through the first set, but dropped all momentum by allowing her serve to be broken in her first two games of the second set. Williams was breaking the Timea Bacsinszky serve at will by that point and managed three breaks of serve from four return games, but those early breaks given up meant it ended up being a 75, 63 win and not the 75, 62 scoreline I had predicted.
We have reached the business end of the tournament at Indian Wells which means there are only four matches scheduled on Thursday as the Premier Event Semi Final line up is completed, while the first two Masters Quarter Finals are played.
Flavia Pennetta - 3.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: I was surprised to see Sabine Lisicki make her way through the draw and she has to be respected in this Quarter Final, but the defending Champion Flavia Pennetta has shown little sign of wanting to lose her grip on the title she won last season.
Wins over Madison Brengle and Sam Stosur in straight sets were good performances, but coming from a set down to beat Maria Sharapova was very impressive from Pennetta and the Italian will be tough to stop on that form.
Pennetta has shown better form in 2015 than Lisicki and the conditions seem to be very much to her liking and I do think the wins she has had this week are more impressive than the German has put together. However, Lisicki needs to be respected as she is a player that does play better when full of confidence like she should be at Indian Wells this week and this should be a tough battle.
I just feel Pennetta is the more secure player of the two and she can dig deeper than Lisicki when the chips are down at any point in the match. It could be fun viewing, but I will look for Pennetta to battle to a 75, 64 win in this one.
Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: Andy Murray has a very strong record against left-handed players not called Rafael Nadal and that includes winning all 9 matches against Feliciano Lopez ahead of this Quarter Final at Indian Wells.
The last twelve months have been very good for Lopez so he might be coming into this match with the most belief he has ever had when facing Andy Murray as he looks to improve on his career-high World Ranking. A win over Kei Nishikori in the Fourth Round was very impressive from Lopez, but he is now going up against an in-form Murray in this Quarter Final.
Murray would have got a good look at what a left-hander will bring to the court in his routine win over Adrian Mannarino in the Fourth Round, although the Lopez serve is a lot bigger than what the Frenchman can produce. However, I think Murray has been seeing the ball very big on the return and his head to head suggests he has the tools to negate Lopez' biggest weapon and exploit a backhand that is below average.
If Lopez is serving well, it could be a close match, but even slightly below his best with that part of his game would see Murray dictate the match for the most part. Murray's own serve can be something of a weakness, particularly the second serve, but I expect him to focus on the Lopez backhand which isn't really a shot that the Spaniard likes to hit over and Murray won't be punished as much as others can.
That should lead to a 64, 63 win for the British Number 1 and potentially a big Semi Final against Novak Djokovic upcoming.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Bernard Tomic: There is little doubt that Bernard Tomic is in decent form, but he might have spent a lot more emotional effort in seeing off Thanasi Kokkinakis in the Fourth Round on Wednesday. It was clearly a big match for Tomic to show that he is still the face of the future of Australian tennis and that might leave him a little short of emotion even if he is going into a big match with the World Number 1 Novak Djokovic.
Djokovic did what he had to do to see off John Isner in the Fourth Round and the Serb looks to be in good form going into this Quarter Final. He still needs to find a level or two if Djokovic seriously wants to win the title with the likes of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal looking in decent form in the bottom half of the draw, but I expect he starts to raise his game now.
I have been impressed with the wins that Tomic has put together this week, but he will have to serve better than he did yesterday if he is to get through against the best returner on the Tour. That might end up causing a little too much pressure on the Australian in this one and I expect Djokovic to win the longer rallies more often than not.
They haven't played one another for two and a half years, and Tomic has improved massively since then, but I am still not completely convinced by his ability against the best players on the Tour. I will look for Djokovic to take the belief away from Tomic in the first set and then move through fairly comfortably into another Semi Final at this event following a 64, 62 win.
MY PICKS: Flavia Pennetta - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 16-19, - 9.20 Units (70 Units Staked, - 13.14% Yield)
The Serena Williams pick was even more frustrating as she found a way to battle through the first set, but dropped all momentum by allowing her serve to be broken in her first two games of the second set. Williams was breaking the Timea Bacsinszky serve at will by that point and managed three breaks of serve from four return games, but those early breaks given up meant it ended up being a 75, 63 win and not the 75, 62 scoreline I had predicted.
We have reached the business end of the tournament at Indian Wells which means there are only four matches scheduled on Thursday as the Premier Event Semi Final line up is completed, while the first two Masters Quarter Finals are played.
Flavia Pennetta - 3.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: I was surprised to see Sabine Lisicki make her way through the draw and she has to be respected in this Quarter Final, but the defending Champion Flavia Pennetta has shown little sign of wanting to lose her grip on the title she won last season.
Wins over Madison Brengle and Sam Stosur in straight sets were good performances, but coming from a set down to beat Maria Sharapova was very impressive from Pennetta and the Italian will be tough to stop on that form.
Pennetta has shown better form in 2015 than Lisicki and the conditions seem to be very much to her liking and I do think the wins she has had this week are more impressive than the German has put together. However, Lisicki needs to be respected as she is a player that does play better when full of confidence like she should be at Indian Wells this week and this should be a tough battle.
I just feel Pennetta is the more secure player of the two and she can dig deeper than Lisicki when the chips are down at any point in the match. It could be fun viewing, but I will look for Pennetta to battle to a 75, 64 win in this one.
Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: Andy Murray has a very strong record against left-handed players not called Rafael Nadal and that includes winning all 9 matches against Feliciano Lopez ahead of this Quarter Final at Indian Wells.
The last twelve months have been very good for Lopez so he might be coming into this match with the most belief he has ever had when facing Andy Murray as he looks to improve on his career-high World Ranking. A win over Kei Nishikori in the Fourth Round was very impressive from Lopez, but he is now going up against an in-form Murray in this Quarter Final.
Murray would have got a good look at what a left-hander will bring to the court in his routine win over Adrian Mannarino in the Fourth Round, although the Lopez serve is a lot bigger than what the Frenchman can produce. However, I think Murray has been seeing the ball very big on the return and his head to head suggests he has the tools to negate Lopez' biggest weapon and exploit a backhand that is below average.
If Lopez is serving well, it could be a close match, but even slightly below his best with that part of his game would see Murray dictate the match for the most part. Murray's own serve can be something of a weakness, particularly the second serve, but I expect him to focus on the Lopez backhand which isn't really a shot that the Spaniard likes to hit over and Murray won't be punished as much as others can.
That should lead to a 64, 63 win for the British Number 1 and potentially a big Semi Final against Novak Djokovic upcoming.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Bernard Tomic: There is little doubt that Bernard Tomic is in decent form, but he might have spent a lot more emotional effort in seeing off Thanasi Kokkinakis in the Fourth Round on Wednesday. It was clearly a big match for Tomic to show that he is still the face of the future of Australian tennis and that might leave him a little short of emotion even if he is going into a big match with the World Number 1 Novak Djokovic.
Djokovic did what he had to do to see off John Isner in the Fourth Round and the Serb looks to be in good form going into this Quarter Final. He still needs to find a level or two if Djokovic seriously wants to win the title with the likes of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal looking in decent form in the bottom half of the draw, but I expect he starts to raise his game now.
I have been impressed with the wins that Tomic has put together this week, but he will have to serve better than he did yesterday if he is to get through against the best returner on the Tour. That might end up causing a little too much pressure on the Australian in this one and I expect Djokovic to win the longer rallies more often than not.
They haven't played one another for two and a half years, and Tomic has improved massively since then, but I am still not completely convinced by his ability against the best players on the Tour. I will look for Djokovic to take the belief away from Tomic in the first set and then move through fairly comfortably into another Semi Final at this event following a 64, 62 win.
MY PICKS: Flavia Pennetta - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 16-19, - 9.20 Units (70 Units Staked, - 13.14% Yield)
Wednesday, 18 March 2015
Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2015 (March 18th)
It would be a great day to have a ticket to Indian Wells as the entire Fourth Round of the Masters event being held there is played through Wednesday. That means fans are treated to the likes of Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal being in action plus top ten players like Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic who are trying to bridge the gap to those Grand Slam winners.
At the time of writing this, Roger Federer is yet to play Andreas Seppi in his Third Round match which is going to take place in the evening session on Tuesday.
The first two of the Premier Event Quarter Finals will also be played on a very busy Wednesday and the tennis should be entertaining for all those who are visiting the grounds or viewing on television.
It should have been another good day for the picks, but it came down to Belinda Bencic who seemed to have finally put away Jelena Jankovic when leading by a break in the third set. However, she suffered a similar fate as Madison Keys in missing key chances to go a double break up and allowing Jankovic to fight back with all of her experience and move into the Quarter Final.
That keeps the tournament in the red for the picks, but there are still a few days to go and it has been much better than earlier in the event when the majority of the losing picks were made.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: There has been a marked improvement in the performances that Adrian Mannarino has made on the Tour which has seen him come very close to cracking the top 32 in the World Rankings.
That brings with it byes in the Masters tournaments coming up, while also means a Seeding in the Grand Slam events which is all a bonus for Mannarino despite some of his limitations on the court. He is a left handed player which can cause problems, but his serve is far from intimidating and he will have to work hard to keep Andy Murray at bay in this one.
Andy Murray has been playing well this week, but he is still capable of throwing in a stinker of a performance and anything less than his best could see the Frenchman pull the upset. However, if Murray brings his form in from earlier in the week, he will likely be able to pull and push Mannarino around the court and dominate much of the match.
The first set will likely be very tight, but Murray will believe he can outlast Mannarino physically in a 64, 62 win.
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 games v Lukas Rosol: Lukas Rosol has the kind of game that can prove very troublesome if he is at the top of his game, but there might be a few nerves going up against his compatriot Tomas Berdych. The latter will also know all about what Rosol brings to the court and the form Berdych has been displaying suggests he will be too good in this one.
Both men rely on a big first serve to dominate proceedings, but Berdych is the better player at getting balls back in play and is much more consistent off the ground.
There will be times Rosol will hit winners for fun as he is capable of that kind of tennis, but it will take a lot of that to cause a surprise and I think the best Rosol can hope for is making this competitive.
However, his belief can be taken away and Rosol is then capable of dropping serve a couple of times and this looks like another 64, 62 win for Berdych in the making.
Milos Raonic - 3.5 games v Tommy Robredo: Milos Raonic was a very impressive winner over Alexandr Dolgopolov, but it was Tommy Robredo who made the headlines with a three set win over Grigor Dimitrov.
The Spaniard should like the conditions in Indian Wells with the ability to get involved in some long rallies, but it might not be the case against the big-serving Raonic. The Canadian will look to dominate behind serve and Robredo's serve isn't one that will see him winning a lot of cheap points.
Scoreboard pressure should play a part and I think Raonic will be the player creating most of the chances in this one as Robredo feels the fact that one break could easily cost him a set. I do like the battling displays that Robredo will bring to a court, but it might not be enough in this one and Raonic can come through with a 63, 75 kind of win.
Bernard Tomic - 3.5 games v Thanasi Kokkinakis: Australian men's tennis must be very excited about the three young prospects they have on their hands and two of those will meet in this Fourth Round match at Indian Wells for a place in the Masters Quarter Final.
I do think the older and more experienced Bernard Tomic is playing well enough to have the edge in the match although both players will know each other very well in both strength and weakness department. However, Tomic might also have the edge when it comes to the physical aspect after Thanasi Kokkinakis had to dig deep into a third set to see off Juan Monaco in the last Round.
Both players had impressive wins for Australia in the Davis Cup recently and while Kokkinakis looks the player with the higher ceiling to reach, I think Tomic could have the slight edge physically and mentally in this one having won a match between the two earlier this season too.
Tomic will have to serve well to keep the pressure on Kokkinakis and I think he comes through after a very tight first set with a 76, 63 win.
Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Jack Sock: All credit to Jack Sock for battling through another tough match at Indian Wells on his comeback to the Tour, but he is going to have to up his game at least one, perhaps two levels, if he is going to beat Roger Federer.
Indian Wells has been one of the favoured tournaments that Federer has played in his career as a four time previous winner here, plus he reached the Final last season. He earned some revenge in the last Round by beating Andreas Seppi fairly comfortably and I expect Federer to keep Sock under pressure through his aggression and ability to attack the net.
Jack Sock has gone to the serve-volley tactics himself, but it was a long lay off from the Tour and he has to be feeling the tennis he has played. The backhand is a particularly weakness and I expect Federer to exploit both the mental and physical exploits that Sock has had to put into this tournament already.
Sock should be inspired enough to keep this competitive for a while, but a 63, 63 win for Federer looks on the cards.
Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: This pick is very simply down to the fact that Carla Suarez Navarro has a lot of tennis under her legs with consecutive tough wins to move into this Quarter Final. She hasn't had the fortune of being in the half of the draw that would get a rest day today and I think Suarez Navarro is going to forced into some long rallies that will end up playing right into the hands of Simona Halep.
While Suarez Navarro have been battling through the Rounds, Simona Halep had a much more comfortable Fourth Round win and hasn't had to spend as long on the court as her opponent.
It hasn't been a headline grabbing season for Halep to this point, but she did win the title in Dubai and she is confident.
It won't be easy for Halep but she does have the edge from the physical aspect and is generally a better player than Suarez Navarro and I expect her to come through 64, 63.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Timea Bacsinszky: In the form that Timea Bacsinszky has been producing on the court, this could be a very good match as she takes on the favourite for the Indian Wells title in Serena Williams to open the evening session.
Bacsinszky has won back to back titles and has battled through to this Quarter Final thanks to her new found belief on the court. That has to be a big reason that she has come from a set down in each of her three wins in the event so far, although she has spent a lot of time on a court and physically it has to be tough.
Serena Williams won't make it any easier for Bacsinszky and I think the World Number 1 is playing with a mission to win the Indian Wells title after ending her boycott of the event. She has been in good nick so far and has looked very good in dismissing her last two opponents.
The power she has and the strong mindset should keep Williams focused in this tough Quarter Final and I do think physically she will be much stronger than Bacsinszky. The Swiss player has some impressive wins under her belt over the last month, but Serena Williams is a step above the players she has mainly beaten and I think the American wears her down in a 75, 62 win.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 12-16, - 11.10 Units (56 Units Staked, - 19.82% Yield)
At the time of writing this, Roger Federer is yet to play Andreas Seppi in his Third Round match which is going to take place in the evening session on Tuesday.
The first two of the Premier Event Quarter Finals will also be played on a very busy Wednesday and the tennis should be entertaining for all those who are visiting the grounds or viewing on television.
It should have been another good day for the picks, but it came down to Belinda Bencic who seemed to have finally put away Jelena Jankovic when leading by a break in the third set. However, she suffered a similar fate as Madison Keys in missing key chances to go a double break up and allowing Jankovic to fight back with all of her experience and move into the Quarter Final.
That keeps the tournament in the red for the picks, but there are still a few days to go and it has been much better than earlier in the event when the majority of the losing picks were made.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: There has been a marked improvement in the performances that Adrian Mannarino has made on the Tour which has seen him come very close to cracking the top 32 in the World Rankings.
That brings with it byes in the Masters tournaments coming up, while also means a Seeding in the Grand Slam events which is all a bonus for Mannarino despite some of his limitations on the court. He is a left handed player which can cause problems, but his serve is far from intimidating and he will have to work hard to keep Andy Murray at bay in this one.
Andy Murray has been playing well this week, but he is still capable of throwing in a stinker of a performance and anything less than his best could see the Frenchman pull the upset. However, if Murray brings his form in from earlier in the week, he will likely be able to pull and push Mannarino around the court and dominate much of the match.
The first set will likely be very tight, but Murray will believe he can outlast Mannarino physically in a 64, 62 win.
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 games v Lukas Rosol: Lukas Rosol has the kind of game that can prove very troublesome if he is at the top of his game, but there might be a few nerves going up against his compatriot Tomas Berdych. The latter will also know all about what Rosol brings to the court and the form Berdych has been displaying suggests he will be too good in this one.
Both men rely on a big first serve to dominate proceedings, but Berdych is the better player at getting balls back in play and is much more consistent off the ground.
There will be times Rosol will hit winners for fun as he is capable of that kind of tennis, but it will take a lot of that to cause a surprise and I think the best Rosol can hope for is making this competitive.
However, his belief can be taken away and Rosol is then capable of dropping serve a couple of times and this looks like another 64, 62 win for Berdych in the making.
Milos Raonic - 3.5 games v Tommy Robredo: Milos Raonic was a very impressive winner over Alexandr Dolgopolov, but it was Tommy Robredo who made the headlines with a three set win over Grigor Dimitrov.
The Spaniard should like the conditions in Indian Wells with the ability to get involved in some long rallies, but it might not be the case against the big-serving Raonic. The Canadian will look to dominate behind serve and Robredo's serve isn't one that will see him winning a lot of cheap points.
Scoreboard pressure should play a part and I think Raonic will be the player creating most of the chances in this one as Robredo feels the fact that one break could easily cost him a set. I do like the battling displays that Robredo will bring to a court, but it might not be enough in this one and Raonic can come through with a 63, 75 kind of win.
Bernard Tomic - 3.5 games v Thanasi Kokkinakis: Australian men's tennis must be very excited about the three young prospects they have on their hands and two of those will meet in this Fourth Round match at Indian Wells for a place in the Masters Quarter Final.
I do think the older and more experienced Bernard Tomic is playing well enough to have the edge in the match although both players will know each other very well in both strength and weakness department. However, Tomic might also have the edge when it comes to the physical aspect after Thanasi Kokkinakis had to dig deep into a third set to see off Juan Monaco in the last Round.
Both players had impressive wins for Australia in the Davis Cup recently and while Kokkinakis looks the player with the higher ceiling to reach, I think Tomic could have the slight edge physically and mentally in this one having won a match between the two earlier this season too.
Tomic will have to serve well to keep the pressure on Kokkinakis and I think he comes through after a very tight first set with a 76, 63 win.
Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Jack Sock: All credit to Jack Sock for battling through another tough match at Indian Wells on his comeback to the Tour, but he is going to have to up his game at least one, perhaps two levels, if he is going to beat Roger Federer.
Indian Wells has been one of the favoured tournaments that Federer has played in his career as a four time previous winner here, plus he reached the Final last season. He earned some revenge in the last Round by beating Andreas Seppi fairly comfortably and I expect Federer to keep Sock under pressure through his aggression and ability to attack the net.
Jack Sock has gone to the serve-volley tactics himself, but it was a long lay off from the Tour and he has to be feeling the tennis he has played. The backhand is a particularly weakness and I expect Federer to exploit both the mental and physical exploits that Sock has had to put into this tournament already.
Sock should be inspired enough to keep this competitive for a while, but a 63, 63 win for Federer looks on the cards.
Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: This pick is very simply down to the fact that Carla Suarez Navarro has a lot of tennis under her legs with consecutive tough wins to move into this Quarter Final. She hasn't had the fortune of being in the half of the draw that would get a rest day today and I think Suarez Navarro is going to forced into some long rallies that will end up playing right into the hands of Simona Halep.
While Suarez Navarro have been battling through the Rounds, Simona Halep had a much more comfortable Fourth Round win and hasn't had to spend as long on the court as her opponent.
It hasn't been a headline grabbing season for Halep to this point, but she did win the title in Dubai and she is confident.
It won't be easy for Halep but she does have the edge from the physical aspect and is generally a better player than Suarez Navarro and I expect her to come through 64, 63.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Timea Bacsinszky: In the form that Timea Bacsinszky has been producing on the court, this could be a very good match as she takes on the favourite for the Indian Wells title in Serena Williams to open the evening session.
Bacsinszky has won back to back titles and has battled through to this Quarter Final thanks to her new found belief on the court. That has to be a big reason that she has come from a set down in each of her three wins in the event so far, although she has spent a lot of time on a court and physically it has to be tough.
Serena Williams won't make it any easier for Bacsinszky and I think the World Number 1 is playing with a mission to win the Indian Wells title after ending her boycott of the event. She has been in good nick so far and has looked very good in dismissing her last two opponents.
The power she has and the strong mindset should keep Williams focused in this tough Quarter Final and I do think physically she will be much stronger than Bacsinszky. The Swiss player has some impressive wins under her belt over the last month, but Serena Williams is a step above the players she has mainly beaten and I think the American wears her down in a 75, 62 win.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 12-16, - 11.10 Units (56 Units Staked, - 19.82% Yield)
Tuesday, 17 March 2015
Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2015 (March 17th)
It is a big day for the Premier Event at Indian Wells as all of the Fourth Round matches are played on Tuesday, while the Masters tournament completes their Third Round.
The big match of the day will be between Sloane Stephens and Serena Williams, although it is a 'big' match in terms of the American media and their off-court issues rather than the competitiveness of their recent matches on-court.
Both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will also be back in action on Tuesday in a full day at Indian Wells.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Steve Johnson: There are a few more American professional players on the ATP Tour that have taken the College route before moving onto the main Tour and that may have stunted their development to some extent.
Instead of making an impact in their early 20's, these players wait a little longer as they build experience before beginning to really find their way on the Tour. Steve Johnson has been producing his best tennis over the last twelve months as he has gotten used to the standard of play at this level, but I still think he will be a little too short of quality to beat Tomas Berdych in this Third Round match.
Berdych is showing signs of having a very strong season on the Tour, although I am not convinced he will find the extra he needs to win a Grand Slam title. He has been good enough to see of those opponents he is expected to beat, but fellow top 10 players have been too good for Berdych.
He should still have the tools to see of Johnson fairly comfortably in this match and I am a little surprised that he is being offered at odds against to cover this number of games as I was looking for a routine 63, 64 win for the Czech player.
Roberto Bautista-Agut - 3.5 games v Jack Sock: Roberto Bautista-Agut was kind enough to see off Denis Istomin in comfortable fashion as one of the few picks that has gone my way this week and I like his chances to beat Jack Sock in this Third Round match.
I do think Sock needs to be given credit for coming through two Rounds here at Indian Wells in his first appearance on the Tour since the end of last season and beating Gilles Muller and Yen-Hsun Lu are impressive results.
However, his physical state is going to be tested having already played back to back three set matches and now facing Bautista-Agut who is capable of getting a lot of balls back in play and quickly turn defence into attack.
The Spaniard has been serving well and I think the conditions will suit him down to the ground in Indian Wells and I like him to battle through to a 76, 63 win.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Donald Young: As a three time previous winner at Indian Wells, Rafael Nadal has been overlooked somewhat as a potential winner. There are reasons for that as Nadal looks to get back to his top level following an injury-hit second half of 2014, while the likes of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer have been in very strong form and are clearly favourites for the title.
Nadal quietly went about his business with a comfortable Second Round win, but there will be a lot more attention on this match as he faces Donald Young of America.
It has been a good tournament for Young already with two consecutive wins behind him, including against Rafael Nadal's Doubles partner here at Indian Wells, but the level will be picking up now. The serve is still not as effective as Young would like and Nadal is the kind of player that will play every point as though it is the last he will ever play which will keep the pressure on the home player.
It might not feel like home for Young as he is playing one of the most popular players on the Tour and I expect Nadal to wear him down before producing a 64, 62 win.
Heather Watson + 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: There is no doubt that I have got Heather Watson matches wrong in the first two Rounds when I expected her to be beaten, but she is in form and could take advantage of the incredibly long match that Carla Suarez Navarro had a couple of days ago.
The Spaniard came through against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in three sets, but the first two of those sets took almost three hours to complete and it will be interesting if the last couple of days is enough time for her to recover physically.
With this match scheduled as the first one out on court on Tuesday, there isn't a lot of time for Suarez Navarro to get ready for this match. If the conditions were the same for both players, I would still think 4.5 games is a lot to be giving up by Suarez Navarro with her style of play suited to what Heather Watson will want to do.
Both players don't mind the extended rallies, but that is where Suarez Navarro may struggle physically and I like taking the games in this one.
Belinda Bencic v Jelena Jankovic: It hasn't been the best start to 2015 for Belinda Bencic, but she earned a hugely impressive win over Caroline Wozniacki on Monday which could give her the impetus to go deep into the Indian Wells tournament.
It isn't always easy for a young player to back up a win like the one Bencic achieved, but I think she is playing an opponent who should already be out of the event. Jelena Jankovic had to dig deep to see off Madison Keys in the Third Round as the American had the lead in every set but couldn't shut the door on the experienced Jankovic.
Bencic will have better memories of facing Jankovic than she did of facing Wozniacki- she hadn't won a game in the previous match with the Dane, but Bencic beat Jankovic at the US Open last season and that experience as a big underdog can put her in a good place mentally for this match.
She is still an underdog in this almost pick 'em contest and I do think Bencic will back up her win against Wozniacki by beating an out-of-sorts Jankovic who was fortunate to get through on Monday.
Carolina Garcia - 2.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: Reaching back to back Finals in the two weeks leading up to Indian Wells would have given Carolina Garcia plenty of confidence in her game and she has backed that up here. Another win over a top 10 player in Ana Ivanovic in the Third Round should show Garcia that she is capable of competing with the best players and she is the favourite to see off Sabine Lisicki.
I quite like the way Lisicki carries herself on the court, but the German really isn't as a good a player as some out there think- she has the tools to play some fantastic stuff, but off the grass courts she is not the same. I also think Lisicki is a little too erratic with her play and will have to be better than that if she is to beat a confident Garcia.
Lisicki has been impressive in beating Doubles partners Roberta Vinci and Sara Errani in consecutive Rounds, while Garcia has had to come through three sets in both her wins in the event.
However, I think Garcia is a little more secure all around and is playing with a confidence that suggests she could be a big mover up the World Rankings in the coming months. I like her to battle her way through to a 76, 63 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista-Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Heather Watson + 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 9-13, - 10.60 Units (44 Units Staked, - 24.09% Yield)
The big match of the day will be between Sloane Stephens and Serena Williams, although it is a 'big' match in terms of the American media and their off-court issues rather than the competitiveness of their recent matches on-court.
Both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will also be back in action on Tuesday in a full day at Indian Wells.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Steve Johnson: There are a few more American professional players on the ATP Tour that have taken the College route before moving onto the main Tour and that may have stunted their development to some extent.
Instead of making an impact in their early 20's, these players wait a little longer as they build experience before beginning to really find their way on the Tour. Steve Johnson has been producing his best tennis over the last twelve months as he has gotten used to the standard of play at this level, but I still think he will be a little too short of quality to beat Tomas Berdych in this Third Round match.
Berdych is showing signs of having a very strong season on the Tour, although I am not convinced he will find the extra he needs to win a Grand Slam title. He has been good enough to see of those opponents he is expected to beat, but fellow top 10 players have been too good for Berdych.
He should still have the tools to see of Johnson fairly comfortably in this match and I am a little surprised that he is being offered at odds against to cover this number of games as I was looking for a routine 63, 64 win for the Czech player.
Roberto Bautista-Agut - 3.5 games v Jack Sock: Roberto Bautista-Agut was kind enough to see off Denis Istomin in comfortable fashion as one of the few picks that has gone my way this week and I like his chances to beat Jack Sock in this Third Round match.
I do think Sock needs to be given credit for coming through two Rounds here at Indian Wells in his first appearance on the Tour since the end of last season and beating Gilles Muller and Yen-Hsun Lu are impressive results.
However, his physical state is going to be tested having already played back to back three set matches and now facing Bautista-Agut who is capable of getting a lot of balls back in play and quickly turn defence into attack.
The Spaniard has been serving well and I think the conditions will suit him down to the ground in Indian Wells and I like him to battle through to a 76, 63 win.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Donald Young: As a three time previous winner at Indian Wells, Rafael Nadal has been overlooked somewhat as a potential winner. There are reasons for that as Nadal looks to get back to his top level following an injury-hit second half of 2014, while the likes of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer have been in very strong form and are clearly favourites for the title.
Nadal quietly went about his business with a comfortable Second Round win, but there will be a lot more attention on this match as he faces Donald Young of America.
It has been a good tournament for Young already with two consecutive wins behind him, including against Rafael Nadal's Doubles partner here at Indian Wells, but the level will be picking up now. The serve is still not as effective as Young would like and Nadal is the kind of player that will play every point as though it is the last he will ever play which will keep the pressure on the home player.
It might not feel like home for Young as he is playing one of the most popular players on the Tour and I expect Nadal to wear him down before producing a 64, 62 win.
Heather Watson + 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: There is no doubt that I have got Heather Watson matches wrong in the first two Rounds when I expected her to be beaten, but she is in form and could take advantage of the incredibly long match that Carla Suarez Navarro had a couple of days ago.
The Spaniard came through against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in three sets, but the first two of those sets took almost three hours to complete and it will be interesting if the last couple of days is enough time for her to recover physically.
With this match scheduled as the first one out on court on Tuesday, there isn't a lot of time for Suarez Navarro to get ready for this match. If the conditions were the same for both players, I would still think 4.5 games is a lot to be giving up by Suarez Navarro with her style of play suited to what Heather Watson will want to do.
Both players don't mind the extended rallies, but that is where Suarez Navarro may struggle physically and I like taking the games in this one.
Belinda Bencic v Jelena Jankovic: It hasn't been the best start to 2015 for Belinda Bencic, but she earned a hugely impressive win over Caroline Wozniacki on Monday which could give her the impetus to go deep into the Indian Wells tournament.
It isn't always easy for a young player to back up a win like the one Bencic achieved, but I think she is playing an opponent who should already be out of the event. Jelena Jankovic had to dig deep to see off Madison Keys in the Third Round as the American had the lead in every set but couldn't shut the door on the experienced Jankovic.
Bencic will have better memories of facing Jankovic than she did of facing Wozniacki- she hadn't won a game in the previous match with the Dane, but Bencic beat Jankovic at the US Open last season and that experience as a big underdog can put her in a good place mentally for this match.
She is still an underdog in this almost pick 'em contest and I do think Bencic will back up her win against Wozniacki by beating an out-of-sorts Jankovic who was fortunate to get through on Monday.
Carolina Garcia - 2.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: Reaching back to back Finals in the two weeks leading up to Indian Wells would have given Carolina Garcia plenty of confidence in her game and she has backed that up here. Another win over a top 10 player in Ana Ivanovic in the Third Round should show Garcia that she is capable of competing with the best players and she is the favourite to see off Sabine Lisicki.
I quite like the way Lisicki carries herself on the court, but the German really isn't as a good a player as some out there think- she has the tools to play some fantastic stuff, but off the grass courts she is not the same. I also think Lisicki is a little too erratic with her play and will have to be better than that if she is to beat a confident Garcia.
Lisicki has been impressive in beating Doubles partners Roberta Vinci and Sara Errani in consecutive Rounds, while Garcia has had to come through three sets in both her wins in the event.
However, I think Garcia is a little more secure all around and is playing with a confidence that suggests she could be a big mover up the World Rankings in the coming months. I like her to battle her way through to a 76, 63 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista-Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Heather Watson + 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 9-13, - 10.60 Units (44 Units Staked, - 24.09% Yield)
Midweek Football Picks 2015 (March 17-19)
This is a big week in European Football as both the Champions League and Europa League Quarter Final draws will be made at the end of the week and teams will begin to smell the opportunity to win the tournaments.
The Champions League in particularly is set to produce four solid Quarter Finals with the majority of the best teams moving through and it looks to be a trophy decided by Bayern Munich, Real Madrid or Barcelona with a couple of dark horses perhaps working their way into the Final as Borussia Dortmund and Atletico Madrid have in the last couple of years.
The Europa League also seems to have a bigger impact than in previous years with the winner getting a place in the Champions League next season. Teams like Sevilla, Napoli, Fiorentina and Everton might see the Europa League as their best chance to get into the premier competition of European Football and all are amongst the favourites to win the trophy in Warsaw.
Before the draw, there are still twelve matches to be played across the next three days in the two different competitions as teams look to book their place in the Quarter Finals. The two English teams left in the Champions League look almost certain to be exiting the competition following home defeats, but Everton are still fighting in the Europa League and have a 2-1 lead to take to Dynamo Kiev on Thursday.
While two of the Champions League ties look to be heading in favour of Monaco and Barcelona who host Arsenal and Manchester City respectively, the other two Champions League ties between Atletico Madrid-Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund-Juventus look finely balanced and should produce some fascinating viewing.
Hopefully it will be another good week for the picks as this month has been a good one so far, but there are still another two weeks to go to record a positive result and recover what has been a poor season so far.
Atletico Madrid v Bayer Leverkusen Pick: It was a big surprise to see Atletico Madrid lose in Germany last month and failing to grab an away goal puts them in a very difficult situation when it comes to this Second Leg. A 1-0 defeat means Atletico Madrid would be in a desperate situation if Bayer Leverkusen were to score at the Vicente Calderon on Tuesday, but the home team should have confidence they can recover the scoreline having won 8 of their last 9 home games in the Champions League.
They have also kept clean sheets in their last 5 home games in the Champions League despite hosting teams of the calibre of Barcelona, Chelsea and Juventus, but a bigger concern for Atletico Madrid may be their struggles in front of goal.
A poor run of form has seen Atletico Madrid fail to score in 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions and it is no surprise they have failed to win any of those games. Compare that to the confidence that Bayer Leverkusen should have with 4 wins from their last 5 games in all competitions and the task gets a little bigger for the Finalists of last season.
The tie is finely balanced and I do have to say the footballing cliche of the importance of the first goal has to be used in this game. If Atletico Madrid can get themselves in front, I think they can go on and win this game and move into the Quarter Final, but a goal for Bayer Leverkusen would be too much to overcome from a mental standpoint.
Missing Diego Godin and Tiago is a big problem for Atletico Madrid, while Leverkusen will be inspired by what Schalke did across town at Real Madrid last week. However, I think the experience in the Atletico Madrid dressing room plus the importance that Diego Simeone seems to have placed in the Champions League should give the home team the edge.
I can see Atletico Madrid overturning the First Leg deficit in this one and move into the Quarter Final and will back them to do that at odds against.
Monaco v Arsenal Pick: The First Leg should be decisive in this tie if Monaco continue producing the defensive performances they have been both at home and in the Champions League this season. There is no need for the home team to over-commit going forward especially as Arsenal need to score at least three times here to have any chance of going through and I would be surprised if Monaco come out with any other system but one to prevent conceding goals.
I would expect Monaco to allow Arsenal to have the ball and try and pick them off on the counter-attack, while the home team even have the benefit of knowing a narrow loss will move them through to the Quarter Final.
This isn't an unfamiliar position for Arsenal to be essentially down and out from the First Leg of the Last 16 tie in the Champions League, but they have shown in recent years that they are capable of at least earning some pride back. That has been most clear from the two games against Bayern Munich when Arsenal were behind by two goals from the First Leg at home, but actually beat Bayern Munich and drew with them at the Allianz Arena in the Second Leg.
There are goals in the Arsenal team, even against a defensively disciplined Monaco team, and they created enough chances in the home leg to know they will have the ability to score here. Olivier Giroud had an awful game at the Emirates Stadium, but he should be inspired by playing back in his native country and there are a few connections with the French League in the Arsenal camp.
Most notably is Arsene Wenger who is a former Monaco manager and Arsenal have won their last 6 games in France so I think there is every chance they can win on Tuesday. With the goals they have been scoring and Monaco unlikely to commit too much going the other way, Arsenal may end up securing the win but ultimately being knocked out of the tournament and I will back the Gunners to earn a Pyrrhic victory here.
Barcelona v Manchester City Pick: This is a huge game for Manuel Pellegrini and his Manchester City team whose chances of winning something this season were reduced drastically over the last month. The home loss in the First Leg of this tie puts them in a very difficult position to turn things around and progress to their first Quarter Final in the Champions League, while a 1-0 defeat at Burnley means they are distant second favourites to win the Premier League.
In fact, the bigger concern for Manchester City in the League will be being dragged into a fight for a top four berth and a place back in the Champions League next season. The form hasn't been good enough of late with 3 losses in 4 games in all competitions and the lack of cohesion shows the split in the dressing room that had been talked about over the last week.
It isn't the best time to be playing Barcelona who have really picked up their form, if still guilty of a couple of performances that have been lacking something in the final third. The home loss to Malaga was a disappointment, but they have bounced back in style and the more direct play makes Barcelona more of a threat to run riot on teams.
Luis Suarez has begun to link up magnificently with Neymar and Lionel Messi and it was the former Liverpool striker's two goals that gave Barcelona the lead from the First Leg. The front three will give Manchester City a lot to think about in the form they have been displaying and Barcelona should be far too strong for the English Champions who have to score at least twice to give themselves a chance of progressing.
Manchester City have to hope Barcelona are distracted by the big League game with Real Madrid coming up this weekend, but this is a team that is in form and has until Sunday for that League game. I really felt Manchester City had a decent chance against Barcelona twelve months ago, but key players like Pablo Zabaleta and Vincent Kompany have regressed this season and Barcelona's direct attacks will cause too many problems for them.
At odds against, I think Barcelona can dominate much of this game and win it by a couple of goals at least.
Borussia Dortmund v Juventus Pick: Out of all the Last 16 ties remaining, this is the one that seems to be the most interesting for the neutral for the simple reason that the winner of the tie could potentially be a dark horse to win the whole Champions League.
While the Bayer Leverkusen-Atletico Madrid tie is also separated by one goal, a Leverkusen win would be a real shock, but picking between Juventus and Borussia Dortmund is tough, even in the face of the form that the latter have shown domestically.
Home advantage could be crucial for Borussia Dortmund who have really been a difficult place to visit in the Champions League with the vocal support they receive from the stands. Just ask Real Madrid who have been beaten handily in their last two knock-out ties in Dortmund and it is a big test for Juventus who have not travelled well in the Champions League.
I expected the First Leg to be an exciting one with chances at both ends of the field and that was the case- the Second Leg should also be one where there will be chances created in my opinion.
Borussia Dortmund will always try and push forward at home and an early goal for either team should see spaces open up as the other side will have to score to stay alive in the tie. The layers didn't expect to see many goals in the First Leg, but they have cottoned on to the factors surrounding this game and have at least knocked down the prices.
Not by enough as far as I am concerned and the odds against quote for there being at least three goals looks a big price to me.
Dinamo Moscow v Napoli Pick: The 3-1 First Leg advantage for Napoli looks to have helped the Italians put one foot into the Quarter Finals, but they have to be aware of any complacency as they head to Russia where Dinamo Moscow have been very productive. Recent form displayed by Napoli makes this anything but a foregone conclusion and an early goal for Dinamo Moscow would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons.
The one saving grace for Napoli is that they have the firepower to erase the away goal they conceded at home last week and Dinamo Moscow have only kept two clean sheets from their 6 home games in the Europa League. On the other hand, Dinamo Moscow will back themselves to be able to score enough goals to win this tie especially as they have come from behind to beat both Panathinaikos and Anderlecht in their last two European games at home.
With a two goal deficit to make up, Dinamo Moscow are unlikely to try and feel their way into the Second Leg and have to get on the front foot. That might play into the hands of Napoli who have a very good counter attacking team that will enjoy the space that Dinamo Moscow could potentially leave behind them.
An early goal for the home team does change things for Napoli and will increase the tension on their side of the pitch, but Rafa Benitez has a very good record as manager in European competition and I expect him to set the team up accordingly.
Both teams should have chances to score in this game considering how poorly Napoli have played on their travels, but I do think the Italians get on the scoreboard too. Dinamo Moscow could be caught chasing the game as it goes on which makes backing them or the draw a dangerous scenario and instead I will look for goals to be shared between these teams.
Dynamo Kiev v Everton Pick: There were plenty of chances at both ends of the field in the First Leg last week to give Dynamo Kiev and Everton reason to believe they can win this tie and it is finely balanced with Everton 2-1 up. The away goal will give Dynamo Kiev a real belief they can come through despite the deficit, while Roberto Martinez has to be intrigued by the problems Everton caused Dynamo Kiev with a more direct approach to things.
I do think home advantage may end up being crucial in this one as Dynamo Kiev have scored plenty of goals in front of their own fans both at home and in Europe this season and that has to inspire confidence. The first goal could be very important with it being a 'tie-changing' one no matter which side gets ahead and I don't believe Roberto Martinez will look to his Everton side to protect what they have.
That could lead to an entertaining encounter as the Everton pace down the channels caused a lot of problems for Dynamo Kiev last week. On the other hand, Everton's defence still doesn't look watertight and I do believe a similar game will develop with both teams going forward and looking to score goals.
Picking a winner looks tough with the first goal likely having a big impact in how this game develops and I am finding it hard to separate the sides. As I said, home advantage may just give Dynamo Kiev the edge, but I will go back to the well and look for goals in this game.
Another early goal like the First Leg would really open this game up, regardless of which way it goes, and both teams have shown an ability to get amongst the goals in this competition. It is a real possibility that extra time may also be called upon, but I will simply back there being goals and look to sit back and enjoy an exciting game.
Roma v Fiorentina Pick: It has been a miserable few months for Roma who have dropped a lot of points and been dragged back into a fight for the Champions League places in Serie A. Another home defeat on Monday night means the likes of Lazio, Napoli and Fiorentina are not far behind Roma in the race for 2nd in the League table, while the title has gone with Juventus running away with it yet again.
The 1-1 draw in Florence last week does make Roma the favourites to progress to the Quarter Final of the Europa League, but Fiorentina are the team in better form and I think they can upset the home team and move through at their expense.
It wouldn't be the first Cup competition that Fiorentina have ended Roma's run this season as they already won 0-2 here in the Coppa Italia and their come from behind win over Milan on Monday night shows the belief in this squad of players.
Fiorentina were beaten in this Stadium by Lazio in their last away games, but they had previously won 4 of 5 away games in all competitions and they have won at Roma and Juventus in that run of games.
Roma have failed to win any of their last 11 home games in all competitions and they have lost 2 of their last 5 games here and I think there is every chance that Fiorentina win this game within 90 minutes. However, I will have a small interest on Fiorentina finding a way to qualify for the Quarter Finals which covers me in case there is a high-scoring draw or if Fiorentina need the additional thirty minutes to fight through in extra time.
Besiktas v Club Brugge Pick: The First Leg saw Besiktas in a very comfortable position at 0-1 up but a combination of an improvement from Club Brugge and perhaps some complacency in the away team saw the scoreline overturned and it is the Belgian side who have the 2-1 lead.
There shouldn't be too much panic from Besiktas who know a 1-0 win would be enough to see them through to the Quarter Final and I expect Slaven Bilic to urge his side to relax and make sure they work the game effectively. They have coped with a First Leg deficit in the Last 32 when they saw off Liverpool on penalties after winning the Second Leg here 1-0 and they have been very good at home all season in European competition.
On the other hand, don't expect Club Brugge to come here and be rolled over as the team have yet to be beaten in the Europa League and have won their last 4 away ties in the competition. That is impressive from the Belgian League leaders and I don't expect them to take a step backwards in this one even though they have the lead from the First Leg.
It might come a time when Club Brugge look to defend what they have, but the game plan has to be to try and erase the away goal they gave up at home last week.
Besiktas won't mind taking their time as long as they don't concede the first goal and I think they have played well enough at home to be expected to win. They also showed enough in the First Leg to suggest they are the better team and perhaps the loud support they generally receive from the stands will prevent any complacency creeping in.
Inter Milan v Wolfsburg Pick: The First Legs of the Europa League ties were expected to bring goals and didn't disappoint for the most part and this is a tie that could produce some fireworks in the Second Leg too. Inter Milan have to get forward and score goals at some point, while Wolfsburg are a team that prefers playing on the front foot but could also exploit spaces with quick counter-attacking football.
Of course the onus isn't on Wolfsburg to score goals here with a two goal advantage, but they won't want the away goal to potentially come into play and getting on the scoreboard could take away any belief Inter Milan really have in turning this tie around.
Roberto Mancini has struggled to get a consistent tune out of Inter Milan, but there won't be much need for them to sit back if they do fall behind as they will need to score at least three times at that point. That could see both teams create chances in the game and both have shown in the First Leg that they can finish when those come their way.
I did expect goals last week in Germany and I see no reason why that won't be the case again when they play in Milan. The layers aren't taking too many chances with the prices but the overs looks the right play.
Sevilla v Villarreal Pick: The First Leg advantage means Sevilla can really wait and see what Villarreal are going to bring to the table in this game and look to pick them off if they are a little too gung-ho to try and get back into the tie.
Three away goals is a really difficult proposition to overcome for Villarreal and they might be a little demoralised heading into this game from their First Leg performance. That might not show immediately, but if Sevilla can nose in front in this Second Leg, it might be too much for Villarreal to deal with mentally.
Sevilla have been producing a lot of positive results at home and they have goals in the side- the way they recovered a First Leg home loss against Real Betis last season should also focus the mind of the home players who won't want to suffer the same fate as their city rivals and I expect that focus to be on display.
While Sevilla don't have to win, the momentum is behind them at home and they have become accustomed to victories in front of their own fans. At odds against, I will back Sevilla to move into the Quarter Final with some style.
MY PICKS: Atletico Madrid to Qualify @ 2.50 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.30 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Barcelona - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund-Juventus Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dinamo Moscow-Napoli Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Fiorentina to Qualify @ 3.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Besiktas @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Inter Milan-Wolfsburg Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Sevilla @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
March Update: 16-11, + 12.24 Units (49 Units Staked, + 24.98% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 100-144-4, - 26.23 Units (421 Units Staked, - 6.23% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
The Champions League in particularly is set to produce four solid Quarter Finals with the majority of the best teams moving through and it looks to be a trophy decided by Bayern Munich, Real Madrid or Barcelona with a couple of dark horses perhaps working their way into the Final as Borussia Dortmund and Atletico Madrid have in the last couple of years.
The Europa League also seems to have a bigger impact than in previous years with the winner getting a place in the Champions League next season. Teams like Sevilla, Napoli, Fiorentina and Everton might see the Europa League as their best chance to get into the premier competition of European Football and all are amongst the favourites to win the trophy in Warsaw.
Before the draw, there are still twelve matches to be played across the next three days in the two different competitions as teams look to book their place in the Quarter Finals. The two English teams left in the Champions League look almost certain to be exiting the competition following home defeats, but Everton are still fighting in the Europa League and have a 2-1 lead to take to Dynamo Kiev on Thursday.
While two of the Champions League ties look to be heading in favour of Monaco and Barcelona who host Arsenal and Manchester City respectively, the other two Champions League ties between Atletico Madrid-Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund-Juventus look finely balanced and should produce some fascinating viewing.
Hopefully it will be another good week for the picks as this month has been a good one so far, but there are still another two weeks to go to record a positive result and recover what has been a poor season so far.
Atletico Madrid v Bayer Leverkusen Pick: It was a big surprise to see Atletico Madrid lose in Germany last month and failing to grab an away goal puts them in a very difficult situation when it comes to this Second Leg. A 1-0 defeat means Atletico Madrid would be in a desperate situation if Bayer Leverkusen were to score at the Vicente Calderon on Tuesday, but the home team should have confidence they can recover the scoreline having won 8 of their last 9 home games in the Champions League.
They have also kept clean sheets in their last 5 home games in the Champions League despite hosting teams of the calibre of Barcelona, Chelsea and Juventus, but a bigger concern for Atletico Madrid may be their struggles in front of goal.
A poor run of form has seen Atletico Madrid fail to score in 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions and it is no surprise they have failed to win any of those games. Compare that to the confidence that Bayer Leverkusen should have with 4 wins from their last 5 games in all competitions and the task gets a little bigger for the Finalists of last season.
The tie is finely balanced and I do have to say the footballing cliche of the importance of the first goal has to be used in this game. If Atletico Madrid can get themselves in front, I think they can go on and win this game and move into the Quarter Final, but a goal for Bayer Leverkusen would be too much to overcome from a mental standpoint.
Missing Diego Godin and Tiago is a big problem for Atletico Madrid, while Leverkusen will be inspired by what Schalke did across town at Real Madrid last week. However, I think the experience in the Atletico Madrid dressing room plus the importance that Diego Simeone seems to have placed in the Champions League should give the home team the edge.
I can see Atletico Madrid overturning the First Leg deficit in this one and move into the Quarter Final and will back them to do that at odds against.
Monaco v Arsenal Pick: The First Leg should be decisive in this tie if Monaco continue producing the defensive performances they have been both at home and in the Champions League this season. There is no need for the home team to over-commit going forward especially as Arsenal need to score at least three times here to have any chance of going through and I would be surprised if Monaco come out with any other system but one to prevent conceding goals.
I would expect Monaco to allow Arsenal to have the ball and try and pick them off on the counter-attack, while the home team even have the benefit of knowing a narrow loss will move them through to the Quarter Final.
This isn't an unfamiliar position for Arsenal to be essentially down and out from the First Leg of the Last 16 tie in the Champions League, but they have shown in recent years that they are capable of at least earning some pride back. That has been most clear from the two games against Bayern Munich when Arsenal were behind by two goals from the First Leg at home, but actually beat Bayern Munich and drew with them at the Allianz Arena in the Second Leg.
There are goals in the Arsenal team, even against a defensively disciplined Monaco team, and they created enough chances in the home leg to know they will have the ability to score here. Olivier Giroud had an awful game at the Emirates Stadium, but he should be inspired by playing back in his native country and there are a few connections with the French League in the Arsenal camp.
Most notably is Arsene Wenger who is a former Monaco manager and Arsenal have won their last 6 games in France so I think there is every chance they can win on Tuesday. With the goals they have been scoring and Monaco unlikely to commit too much going the other way, Arsenal may end up securing the win but ultimately being knocked out of the tournament and I will back the Gunners to earn a Pyrrhic victory here.
Barcelona v Manchester City Pick: This is a huge game for Manuel Pellegrini and his Manchester City team whose chances of winning something this season were reduced drastically over the last month. The home loss in the First Leg of this tie puts them in a very difficult position to turn things around and progress to their first Quarter Final in the Champions League, while a 1-0 defeat at Burnley means they are distant second favourites to win the Premier League.
In fact, the bigger concern for Manchester City in the League will be being dragged into a fight for a top four berth and a place back in the Champions League next season. The form hasn't been good enough of late with 3 losses in 4 games in all competitions and the lack of cohesion shows the split in the dressing room that had been talked about over the last week.
It isn't the best time to be playing Barcelona who have really picked up their form, if still guilty of a couple of performances that have been lacking something in the final third. The home loss to Malaga was a disappointment, but they have bounced back in style and the more direct play makes Barcelona more of a threat to run riot on teams.
Luis Suarez has begun to link up magnificently with Neymar and Lionel Messi and it was the former Liverpool striker's two goals that gave Barcelona the lead from the First Leg. The front three will give Manchester City a lot to think about in the form they have been displaying and Barcelona should be far too strong for the English Champions who have to score at least twice to give themselves a chance of progressing.
Manchester City have to hope Barcelona are distracted by the big League game with Real Madrid coming up this weekend, but this is a team that is in form and has until Sunday for that League game. I really felt Manchester City had a decent chance against Barcelona twelve months ago, but key players like Pablo Zabaleta and Vincent Kompany have regressed this season and Barcelona's direct attacks will cause too many problems for them.
At odds against, I think Barcelona can dominate much of this game and win it by a couple of goals at least.
Borussia Dortmund v Juventus Pick: Out of all the Last 16 ties remaining, this is the one that seems to be the most interesting for the neutral for the simple reason that the winner of the tie could potentially be a dark horse to win the whole Champions League.
While the Bayer Leverkusen-Atletico Madrid tie is also separated by one goal, a Leverkusen win would be a real shock, but picking between Juventus and Borussia Dortmund is tough, even in the face of the form that the latter have shown domestically.
Home advantage could be crucial for Borussia Dortmund who have really been a difficult place to visit in the Champions League with the vocal support they receive from the stands. Just ask Real Madrid who have been beaten handily in their last two knock-out ties in Dortmund and it is a big test for Juventus who have not travelled well in the Champions League.
I expected the First Leg to be an exciting one with chances at both ends of the field and that was the case- the Second Leg should also be one where there will be chances created in my opinion.
Borussia Dortmund will always try and push forward at home and an early goal for either team should see spaces open up as the other side will have to score to stay alive in the tie. The layers didn't expect to see many goals in the First Leg, but they have cottoned on to the factors surrounding this game and have at least knocked down the prices.
Not by enough as far as I am concerned and the odds against quote for there being at least three goals looks a big price to me.
Dinamo Moscow v Napoli Pick: The 3-1 First Leg advantage for Napoli looks to have helped the Italians put one foot into the Quarter Finals, but they have to be aware of any complacency as they head to Russia where Dinamo Moscow have been very productive. Recent form displayed by Napoli makes this anything but a foregone conclusion and an early goal for Dinamo Moscow would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons.
The one saving grace for Napoli is that they have the firepower to erase the away goal they conceded at home last week and Dinamo Moscow have only kept two clean sheets from their 6 home games in the Europa League. On the other hand, Dinamo Moscow will back themselves to be able to score enough goals to win this tie especially as they have come from behind to beat both Panathinaikos and Anderlecht in their last two European games at home.
With a two goal deficit to make up, Dinamo Moscow are unlikely to try and feel their way into the Second Leg and have to get on the front foot. That might play into the hands of Napoli who have a very good counter attacking team that will enjoy the space that Dinamo Moscow could potentially leave behind them.
An early goal for the home team does change things for Napoli and will increase the tension on their side of the pitch, but Rafa Benitez has a very good record as manager in European competition and I expect him to set the team up accordingly.
Both teams should have chances to score in this game considering how poorly Napoli have played on their travels, but I do think the Italians get on the scoreboard too. Dinamo Moscow could be caught chasing the game as it goes on which makes backing them or the draw a dangerous scenario and instead I will look for goals to be shared between these teams.
Dynamo Kiev v Everton Pick: There were plenty of chances at both ends of the field in the First Leg last week to give Dynamo Kiev and Everton reason to believe they can win this tie and it is finely balanced with Everton 2-1 up. The away goal will give Dynamo Kiev a real belief they can come through despite the deficit, while Roberto Martinez has to be intrigued by the problems Everton caused Dynamo Kiev with a more direct approach to things.
I do think home advantage may end up being crucial in this one as Dynamo Kiev have scored plenty of goals in front of their own fans both at home and in Europe this season and that has to inspire confidence. The first goal could be very important with it being a 'tie-changing' one no matter which side gets ahead and I don't believe Roberto Martinez will look to his Everton side to protect what they have.
That could lead to an entertaining encounter as the Everton pace down the channels caused a lot of problems for Dynamo Kiev last week. On the other hand, Everton's defence still doesn't look watertight and I do believe a similar game will develop with both teams going forward and looking to score goals.
Picking a winner looks tough with the first goal likely having a big impact in how this game develops and I am finding it hard to separate the sides. As I said, home advantage may just give Dynamo Kiev the edge, but I will go back to the well and look for goals in this game.
Another early goal like the First Leg would really open this game up, regardless of which way it goes, and both teams have shown an ability to get amongst the goals in this competition. It is a real possibility that extra time may also be called upon, but I will simply back there being goals and look to sit back and enjoy an exciting game.
Roma v Fiorentina Pick: It has been a miserable few months for Roma who have dropped a lot of points and been dragged back into a fight for the Champions League places in Serie A. Another home defeat on Monday night means the likes of Lazio, Napoli and Fiorentina are not far behind Roma in the race for 2nd in the League table, while the title has gone with Juventus running away with it yet again.
The 1-1 draw in Florence last week does make Roma the favourites to progress to the Quarter Final of the Europa League, but Fiorentina are the team in better form and I think they can upset the home team and move through at their expense.
It wouldn't be the first Cup competition that Fiorentina have ended Roma's run this season as they already won 0-2 here in the Coppa Italia and their come from behind win over Milan on Monday night shows the belief in this squad of players.
Fiorentina were beaten in this Stadium by Lazio in their last away games, but they had previously won 4 of 5 away games in all competitions and they have won at Roma and Juventus in that run of games.
Roma have failed to win any of their last 11 home games in all competitions and they have lost 2 of their last 5 games here and I think there is every chance that Fiorentina win this game within 90 minutes. However, I will have a small interest on Fiorentina finding a way to qualify for the Quarter Finals which covers me in case there is a high-scoring draw or if Fiorentina need the additional thirty minutes to fight through in extra time.
Besiktas v Club Brugge Pick: The First Leg saw Besiktas in a very comfortable position at 0-1 up but a combination of an improvement from Club Brugge and perhaps some complacency in the away team saw the scoreline overturned and it is the Belgian side who have the 2-1 lead.
There shouldn't be too much panic from Besiktas who know a 1-0 win would be enough to see them through to the Quarter Final and I expect Slaven Bilic to urge his side to relax and make sure they work the game effectively. They have coped with a First Leg deficit in the Last 32 when they saw off Liverpool on penalties after winning the Second Leg here 1-0 and they have been very good at home all season in European competition.
On the other hand, don't expect Club Brugge to come here and be rolled over as the team have yet to be beaten in the Europa League and have won their last 4 away ties in the competition. That is impressive from the Belgian League leaders and I don't expect them to take a step backwards in this one even though they have the lead from the First Leg.
It might come a time when Club Brugge look to defend what they have, but the game plan has to be to try and erase the away goal they gave up at home last week.
Besiktas won't mind taking their time as long as they don't concede the first goal and I think they have played well enough at home to be expected to win. They also showed enough in the First Leg to suggest they are the better team and perhaps the loud support they generally receive from the stands will prevent any complacency creeping in.
Inter Milan v Wolfsburg Pick: The First Legs of the Europa League ties were expected to bring goals and didn't disappoint for the most part and this is a tie that could produce some fireworks in the Second Leg too. Inter Milan have to get forward and score goals at some point, while Wolfsburg are a team that prefers playing on the front foot but could also exploit spaces with quick counter-attacking football.
Of course the onus isn't on Wolfsburg to score goals here with a two goal advantage, but they won't want the away goal to potentially come into play and getting on the scoreboard could take away any belief Inter Milan really have in turning this tie around.
Roberto Mancini has struggled to get a consistent tune out of Inter Milan, but there won't be much need for them to sit back if they do fall behind as they will need to score at least three times at that point. That could see both teams create chances in the game and both have shown in the First Leg that they can finish when those come their way.
I did expect goals last week in Germany and I see no reason why that won't be the case again when they play in Milan. The layers aren't taking too many chances with the prices but the overs looks the right play.
Sevilla v Villarreal Pick: The First Leg advantage means Sevilla can really wait and see what Villarreal are going to bring to the table in this game and look to pick them off if they are a little too gung-ho to try and get back into the tie.
Three away goals is a really difficult proposition to overcome for Villarreal and they might be a little demoralised heading into this game from their First Leg performance. That might not show immediately, but if Sevilla can nose in front in this Second Leg, it might be too much for Villarreal to deal with mentally.
Sevilla have been producing a lot of positive results at home and they have goals in the side- the way they recovered a First Leg home loss against Real Betis last season should also focus the mind of the home players who won't want to suffer the same fate as their city rivals and I expect that focus to be on display.
While Sevilla don't have to win, the momentum is behind them at home and they have become accustomed to victories in front of their own fans. At odds against, I will back Sevilla to move into the Quarter Final with some style.
MY PICKS: Atletico Madrid to Qualify @ 2.50 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.30 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Barcelona - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund-Juventus Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dinamo Moscow-Napoli Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Fiorentina to Qualify @ 3.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Besiktas @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Inter Milan-Wolfsburg Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Sevilla @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
March Update: 16-11, + 12.24 Units (49 Units Staked, + 24.98% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 100-144-4, - 26.23 Units (421 Units Staked, - 6.23% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Monday, 16 March 2015
Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2015 (March 16th)
It has been a pretty terrible tournament for the picks so far with another poor day in the office on Sunday. Some of the picks have just not been good enough, while the bit of luck you also need has seemed to desert me at the wrong time.
That was summed up by Svetlana Kuznetsova's defeat to Sloane Stephens despite looking the better player for the majority of the match and it was a missed forehand from inside the service box that cost the Russian the chance to progress. I am sure she is a lot more disappointed than I am, but it was still another pick that might have at least saved the day to a small extent.
During the long tennis season, you have to expect some of the down moments as well as the highs that I have seen over the first two and a half months of the season and the foundation for another successful season has been laid down. The next couple of days will determine whether Indian Wells is going to be a tournament from which I can at least reduce the losses, but 'chasing' losses has never been something I am interested in and another poor performance from the picks might see me put this tournament in the rear-view mirror.
We have reached the Third Round in both men's and women's draws and there were a huge amount of upsets on Sunday which has seemed to open up the draws. Those surprise results were mainly in the Premier Event, but Stan Wawrinka was beaten by Robin Haase in the Masters too.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal made progress in the bottom half of the draw and both will be expected to take part in one of the Semi Final matches later this week, although the former does meet Andreas Seppi who conquered Federer at the Australian Open.
John Isner v Kevin Anderson: This was initially priced up much closer to a pick 'em contest, but I still think John Isner is worth backing despite the money seemingly coming in on the American. The North American hard courts are the favoured domain for Isner and he has a strong record in recent matches against Kevin Anderson in what could be a quick-fire Third Round match.
Both men will look for their booming serve to make things easier, but I think Isner has the edge when it comes to the second serve and that small difference can separate the winner from the loser in the contest.
The American has won 4 straight matches against Kevin Anderson and Isner is also a former Finalist in Indian Wells so should enjoy the conditions for the most part. I don't think anyone truly likes playing in the hot and humid conditions the desert air brings to the venue, but his previous experiences here should put Isner in a position to win the match.
There will be a few service games rattled off in quick succession, but Anderson can see his first serve falter in pressurised situations and Isner may take advantage with a 64, 76 win.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Bernard Tomic: After a couple of positive appearances for the Australian Davis Cup team and leading them to wins in his two Singles rubbers, Bernard Tomic had an impressive straight sets win over Borna Coric in the Second Round here. He has got through to his Seeded Round of the draw, but now faces David Ferrer who seemingly is still producing some of his best tennis.
Ferrer has already picked up three titles this season, including back to back titles in Rio De Janeiro and Acapulco ahead of the first Masters event of the season. Confidence has to be high, although Ferrer does throw in a few more loose sets these days.
However, I do think the Spaniard has the edge over Tomic from a purely mental point of view in this one as he won't mind chasing balls all day and forcing his younger opponent to display a lot of consistency. That isn't always Tomic's strong point and Ferrer has won all 3 previous matches between these two players including in Acapulco last month.
There is always a feeling that Ferrer feels he can physically outlast anyone and he begins to wear down opponents who get flustered when they have to hit closer and closer to the lines to win points. I expect him to wear down Tomic in this one and produce a 64, 64 win and a place in the Fourth Round.
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: Feliciano Lopez let me down in the Second Round as he gave up two breaks of serve in quick succession to fall just a game under the cover against Edouard Roger-Vasselin. That win might at least get his confidence up and I expect an 'easier' time in the office against Pablo Cuevas who saves his best tennis for the clay courts.
That isn't to under-estimate what Cuevas can do in the slower Indian Wells conditions with the court giving him time to produce extended rallies. He will expect to have a lot of success if he can force Lopez to hit more balls than he would like, but the service edge is definitely with the Spaniard.
Aggressive tactics may help to some extent too for Lopez, although this match has been scheduled for the evening and the ball may not fly as fast as he would like when attacking the net. Even with that in mind, I think the hard courts should favour Lopez more than Cuevas and it should allow the higher Ranked player to enforce his game on his opponent.
Nothing comes easy for Lopez, but I do think he has enough to come through with a 76, 64 win in this one.
Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: It just goes to show the different trajectories the careers of Madison Keys and Jelena Jankovic have taken over the last nine months that their odds have flip-flopped at Indian Wells. The last they faced one another was in Eastbourne 2014 and Keys was a big underdog to win, although she did level the head to head on that occasion.
Now Keys come into this Third Round match as the favourite to progress and frank the fact she is on the way up the World Rankings and Jankovic is on the way down.
It has been a tough start to the 2015 season for Jankovic, although she showed there is still plenty of fight left in her by coming from a set down to beat Lauren Davis in the Second Round. Unfortunately for Jankovic, Madison Keys has a much bigger game than the diminutive Davis and she is unlikely to fall apart as quickly, especially if she brings in the form that took her to the Australian Open Semi Final.
The biggest concern I have for Keys is the injuries she has suffered early in her career, but this player has all the tools to become a multiple Grand Slam winner and I expect her power to be too much for Jankovic. The experienced Serb will cause some moments of real problems for Keys, but the young American should have too much in her locker and come through 63, 75.
Caroline Garcia + 4.5 games v Ana Ivanovic: This looks to be a lot of games to be handing to Caroline Garcia who dismissed Ana Ivanovic for the loss of just five games in Monterrey in the build up to Indian Wells. The Frenchwoman is another of the young guns on the WTA Tour who have been tipped for big things and her form has been solid enough to take her to back to back Finals, although she lost both of those to Timea Bacsinszky.
Garcia's youthfulness also means she is a player that can quickly fall apart if things are not exactly going to plan which always makes it a risk to back her, even with games in hand as she is given here. However, Ana Ivanovic is one of the more inconsistent players on the Tour who is just as capable of winning a set 60 and then losing the next 16.
Big things were expected for a rejuvenated Ivanovic in 2015 following her exploits in 2014, but she has been a little disappointing to this point and I think Garcia will have the confidence to push her all the way. Garcia looks a live underdog in this one which makes the number of games being given to her that much more appealing, while the win over Ivanovic last week should aid her confidence.
I will be looking for this one to be kept competitive and will back Garcia to at least get this into three sets which should see her cover as long as she doesn't throw away one of the first two sets.
Flavia Pennetta - 1.5 games v Sam Stosur: The defending Champion Flavia Pennetta has dominated Sam Stosur in the past including a win over her at Indian Wells in 2014 and I think that will give her the edge in this Third Round match. The fact she won the title here twelve months ago means Pennetta should enjoy the conditions present at the event and the head to head record of five wins from five matches should only increase her belief that she can get through.
I do have respect for Sam Stosur as a former Grand Slam winner as she has made the best out of her ability, but she is an erratic character who can throw in a few really stunning errors that puts her under pressure. The Australian has a very good serve, but doesn't always back it up effectively and is also facing an opponent who has a decent serve of her own.
That means breaks of serve are not always easy and aiding Pennetta through unforced errors will be tough to overcome for Stosur.
Neither player has been in great form to open the new season, but Pennetta seems to have a couple of edges which should help her come through with a 63, 36, 64 win.
Victoria Azarenka + 3.5 games v Maria Sharapova: This is the best match of the Third Round and could easily develop into the best one we will see in the Premier Event at Indian Wells this week. Victoria Azarenka is on the way back up the World Rankings following an injury hit 2014, but faces a huge obstacle in Maria Sharapova in the Third Round.
There isn't much love lost between these two players and I expect to see a tense match on the court in the evening session on Monday. Maria Sharapova has the better serve, but she can get a little tight on that shot and Victoria Azarenka will look to jump all over the second serve.
On the other hand, Azarenka has to find a way to hold onto her own serve more effectively and not allow Sharapova to get in front where she can begin to relax and start dominating behind heavy groundstrokes.
I can see both players having success in this one and that makes it a fascinating match, while the games being given to Azarenka could be enough even in a valiant losing effort. However, I think Azarenka is a live underdog who has every chance of pulling the upset, even if she has lost her last two matches against Sharapova.
This should be a great match to watch and I can see it going three sets which should be enough time for Azarenka to at least get within this number.
MY PICKS: John Isner @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia + 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Flavia Pennetta - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 5-10, - 11.80 Units (30 Units Staked, - 39.33% Yield)
That was summed up by Svetlana Kuznetsova's defeat to Sloane Stephens despite looking the better player for the majority of the match and it was a missed forehand from inside the service box that cost the Russian the chance to progress. I am sure she is a lot more disappointed than I am, but it was still another pick that might have at least saved the day to a small extent.
During the long tennis season, you have to expect some of the down moments as well as the highs that I have seen over the first two and a half months of the season and the foundation for another successful season has been laid down. The next couple of days will determine whether Indian Wells is going to be a tournament from which I can at least reduce the losses, but 'chasing' losses has never been something I am interested in and another poor performance from the picks might see me put this tournament in the rear-view mirror.
We have reached the Third Round in both men's and women's draws and there were a huge amount of upsets on Sunday which has seemed to open up the draws. Those surprise results were mainly in the Premier Event, but Stan Wawrinka was beaten by Robin Haase in the Masters too.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal made progress in the bottom half of the draw and both will be expected to take part in one of the Semi Final matches later this week, although the former does meet Andreas Seppi who conquered Federer at the Australian Open.
John Isner v Kevin Anderson: This was initially priced up much closer to a pick 'em contest, but I still think John Isner is worth backing despite the money seemingly coming in on the American. The North American hard courts are the favoured domain for Isner and he has a strong record in recent matches against Kevin Anderson in what could be a quick-fire Third Round match.
Both men will look for their booming serve to make things easier, but I think Isner has the edge when it comes to the second serve and that small difference can separate the winner from the loser in the contest.
The American has won 4 straight matches against Kevin Anderson and Isner is also a former Finalist in Indian Wells so should enjoy the conditions for the most part. I don't think anyone truly likes playing in the hot and humid conditions the desert air brings to the venue, but his previous experiences here should put Isner in a position to win the match.
There will be a few service games rattled off in quick succession, but Anderson can see his first serve falter in pressurised situations and Isner may take advantage with a 64, 76 win.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Bernard Tomic: After a couple of positive appearances for the Australian Davis Cup team and leading them to wins in his two Singles rubbers, Bernard Tomic had an impressive straight sets win over Borna Coric in the Second Round here. He has got through to his Seeded Round of the draw, but now faces David Ferrer who seemingly is still producing some of his best tennis.
Ferrer has already picked up three titles this season, including back to back titles in Rio De Janeiro and Acapulco ahead of the first Masters event of the season. Confidence has to be high, although Ferrer does throw in a few more loose sets these days.
However, I do think the Spaniard has the edge over Tomic from a purely mental point of view in this one as he won't mind chasing balls all day and forcing his younger opponent to display a lot of consistency. That isn't always Tomic's strong point and Ferrer has won all 3 previous matches between these two players including in Acapulco last month.
There is always a feeling that Ferrer feels he can physically outlast anyone and he begins to wear down opponents who get flustered when they have to hit closer and closer to the lines to win points. I expect him to wear down Tomic in this one and produce a 64, 64 win and a place in the Fourth Round.
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: Feliciano Lopez let me down in the Second Round as he gave up two breaks of serve in quick succession to fall just a game under the cover against Edouard Roger-Vasselin. That win might at least get his confidence up and I expect an 'easier' time in the office against Pablo Cuevas who saves his best tennis for the clay courts.
That isn't to under-estimate what Cuevas can do in the slower Indian Wells conditions with the court giving him time to produce extended rallies. He will expect to have a lot of success if he can force Lopez to hit more balls than he would like, but the service edge is definitely with the Spaniard.
Aggressive tactics may help to some extent too for Lopez, although this match has been scheduled for the evening and the ball may not fly as fast as he would like when attacking the net. Even with that in mind, I think the hard courts should favour Lopez more than Cuevas and it should allow the higher Ranked player to enforce his game on his opponent.
Nothing comes easy for Lopez, but I do think he has enough to come through with a 76, 64 win in this one.
Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: It just goes to show the different trajectories the careers of Madison Keys and Jelena Jankovic have taken over the last nine months that their odds have flip-flopped at Indian Wells. The last they faced one another was in Eastbourne 2014 and Keys was a big underdog to win, although she did level the head to head on that occasion.
Now Keys come into this Third Round match as the favourite to progress and frank the fact she is on the way up the World Rankings and Jankovic is on the way down.
It has been a tough start to the 2015 season for Jankovic, although she showed there is still plenty of fight left in her by coming from a set down to beat Lauren Davis in the Second Round. Unfortunately for Jankovic, Madison Keys has a much bigger game than the diminutive Davis and she is unlikely to fall apart as quickly, especially if she brings in the form that took her to the Australian Open Semi Final.
The biggest concern I have for Keys is the injuries she has suffered early in her career, but this player has all the tools to become a multiple Grand Slam winner and I expect her power to be too much for Jankovic. The experienced Serb will cause some moments of real problems for Keys, but the young American should have too much in her locker and come through 63, 75.
Caroline Garcia + 4.5 games v Ana Ivanovic: This looks to be a lot of games to be handing to Caroline Garcia who dismissed Ana Ivanovic for the loss of just five games in Monterrey in the build up to Indian Wells. The Frenchwoman is another of the young guns on the WTA Tour who have been tipped for big things and her form has been solid enough to take her to back to back Finals, although she lost both of those to Timea Bacsinszky.
Garcia's youthfulness also means she is a player that can quickly fall apart if things are not exactly going to plan which always makes it a risk to back her, even with games in hand as she is given here. However, Ana Ivanovic is one of the more inconsistent players on the Tour who is just as capable of winning a set 60 and then losing the next 16.
Big things were expected for a rejuvenated Ivanovic in 2015 following her exploits in 2014, but she has been a little disappointing to this point and I think Garcia will have the confidence to push her all the way. Garcia looks a live underdog in this one which makes the number of games being given to her that much more appealing, while the win over Ivanovic last week should aid her confidence.
I will be looking for this one to be kept competitive and will back Garcia to at least get this into three sets which should see her cover as long as she doesn't throw away one of the first two sets.
Flavia Pennetta - 1.5 games v Sam Stosur: The defending Champion Flavia Pennetta has dominated Sam Stosur in the past including a win over her at Indian Wells in 2014 and I think that will give her the edge in this Third Round match. The fact she won the title here twelve months ago means Pennetta should enjoy the conditions present at the event and the head to head record of five wins from five matches should only increase her belief that she can get through.
I do have respect for Sam Stosur as a former Grand Slam winner as she has made the best out of her ability, but she is an erratic character who can throw in a few really stunning errors that puts her under pressure. The Australian has a very good serve, but doesn't always back it up effectively and is also facing an opponent who has a decent serve of her own.
That means breaks of serve are not always easy and aiding Pennetta through unforced errors will be tough to overcome for Stosur.
Neither player has been in great form to open the new season, but Pennetta seems to have a couple of edges which should help her come through with a 63, 36, 64 win.
Victoria Azarenka + 3.5 games v Maria Sharapova: This is the best match of the Third Round and could easily develop into the best one we will see in the Premier Event at Indian Wells this week. Victoria Azarenka is on the way back up the World Rankings following an injury hit 2014, but faces a huge obstacle in Maria Sharapova in the Third Round.
There isn't much love lost between these two players and I expect to see a tense match on the court in the evening session on Monday. Maria Sharapova has the better serve, but she can get a little tight on that shot and Victoria Azarenka will look to jump all over the second serve.
On the other hand, Azarenka has to find a way to hold onto her own serve more effectively and not allow Sharapova to get in front where she can begin to relax and start dominating behind heavy groundstrokes.
I can see both players having success in this one and that makes it a fascinating match, while the games being given to Azarenka could be enough even in a valiant losing effort. However, I think Azarenka is a live underdog who has every chance of pulling the upset, even if she has lost her last two matches against Sharapova.
This should be a great match to watch and I can see it going three sets which should be enough time for Azarenka to at least get within this number.
MY PICKS: John Isner @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia + 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Flavia Pennetta - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 5-10, - 11.80 Units (30 Units Staked, - 39.33% Yield)
Sunday, 15 March 2015
Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2015 (March 15th)
This is the time when I really feel the event at Indian Wells has gotten going with the first Sunday of the tournament, as is also the case with the event held in Miami, seeing every single top player in both draws having taking to the court.
We have had our first look at the players that have had a couple of weeks off from the Tour and the quality of matches should only improve as long as the majority of those players move through the draw. The WTA Premier Event will begin their Third Round action on Sunday which means Serena Williams will be back on the court where she was given a very warm reception on her return from a 14 year absence.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have had to wait long enough and will be in action in Singles matches, as both have already played a Doubles match in the draw.
Saturday was a better day for the picks, but there is still room for improvement as the tournament goes on. It has been a poor start to the Indian Wells tournament for the picks, but the shoots of recovery came through on Saturday and gives me something to build upon on Sunday.
Jeremy Chardy v Donald Young: The layers have set this as a pick 'em Second Round match with an improving Donald Young the slight favourite to beat the Seeded Jeremy Chardy.
After failing to live up to the hype that has surrounded him since his early teenage years, Young has put together more positive results in recent months and he is very close to surpassing his career-high Ranking of 38 from three seasons ago. The lefty serve should give him an edge in matches, but Young is still erratic at times and a solid competitor like Chardy should have a level enough performance to win this match.
Chardy has been in decent form in 2015 with all of his losses 'understandable' and he has a nice first serve that should set him up. The Frenchman's biggest issue is that he can sometimes be a little loose with his own play that can give opponents a chance to get back into matches and take off, but I am not convinced Young is the player to take full advantage.
It may go three sets, but I like Chardy as the underdog to move into the Third Round.
Roberto Bautista-Agut - 3.5 games v Denis Istomin: Denis Istomin is a player that can produce some really good tennis at times, but is far too inconsistent to expect it on a regular basis. He is going to have to be at his very best to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut who is a player that seems to have found his level on the Tour.
The Spaniard rarely loses matches that he would be expected to win over the last eighteen months, but the top players will generally see him off without too many issues. Istomin definitely falls into the former category and he will have to dig deep to make sure he has a chance in this one, although I am favouring Bautista-Agut to be too strong.
Bautista-Agut needs to serve well, but the slower conditions might not be as detrimental to him with his strong defensive play and I believe that will see him edge through in two sets with a 64, 63 victory behind him.
Simone Bolelli + 3.5 games v Milos Raonic: These two players have to be familiar with one another as this is the third time this season that Simone Bolelli and Milos Raonic will meet on the Tour and the previous two matches have been split one win apiece.
The slower conditions in Indian Wells off the court might favour Bolelli, although the Italian has a win over Raonic on the indoor hard courts which should be a surface that favours the big serving Canadian.
Bolelli has a decent serve himself and has been playing at a high level this season where he seems to be bringing a lot more confidence to the court. It is a far cry from twelve months ago when Bolelli was mainly spending time on the Challenger circuit and I think the Italian is a live dog in this one.
I will take the games and look for Bolelli to at least look after his serve for much of the match and force Raonic to dig deep to get through. Bolelli did come through the First Round with some difficulty, but he has played well enough to earn a crucial break in this match which should be enough to make these games count.
Garbine Muguruza - 1.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: This is a huge Third Round match between two players that are on the cusp of really becoming a threat to perhaps win a really big title. Both Garbine Muguruza and Karolina Pliskova are young players that will be tipped to win Grand Slam titles and the winner of this match could go very deep into the tournament at Indian Wells.
They met recently in Dubai in a match that was won by Pliskova, although it was a tight three set match and I think Muguruza has a lot more to find from that match. Too many mistakes and poor serving cost her that day and it won't take a lot for her to turn the tables on Pliskova here at Indian Wells.
I believe Muguruza is going to have more success on slower courts between these players so have to think the conditions in Indian Wells will suit the Spaniard more than Pliskova. It won't be easy unless Muguruza raises her game and cuts out some of her silly mistakes, but this is a player that should be much higher than 22 in the World Rankings and I like her to come through with a 63, 46, 64 win.
Svetlana Kuznetsova v Sloane Stephens: Sloane Stephens has really taken one, or two, steps backward in her career arc that many would have expected from someone who had reached Grand Slam Semi Finals before her 20th birthday. Her form remains inconsistent and I think Svetlana Kuznetsova uses all of her experience to come through and move into the Fourth Round.
It has easily been the best tournament of 2015 for Stephens as she has won back to back matches for the first time- I still see Stephens producing some really good tennis, but mentally she has struggled and those periods of form are quickly replaced by some poor performances.
On the other hand, Kuznetsova hasn't really set the world alight herself and she looks a player that doesn't have a lot left for the WTA Tour compared to the days when she won a couple of Grand Slam titles. The Russian hasn't produced a lot of form in 2015 herself, but she remains a solid competitor that will force Stephens to dig deep, too deep from the form she has shown so far this season.
It's got every chance of being a three setter, but Kuznetsova should be a little stronger favourite for me and I will back her to win this match.
MY PICKS: Jeremy Chardy @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista-Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Simone Bolelli + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 4-6, - 5.40 Units (20 Units Staked, - 27% Yield)
Jeremy Chardy v Donald Young: The layers have set this as a pick 'em Second Round match with an improving Donald Young the slight favourite to beat the Seeded Jeremy Chardy.
After failing to live up to the hype that has surrounded him since his early teenage years, Young has put together more positive results in recent months and he is very close to surpassing his career-high Ranking of 38 from three seasons ago. The lefty serve should give him an edge in matches, but Young is still erratic at times and a solid competitor like Chardy should have a level enough performance to win this match.
Chardy has been in decent form in 2015 with all of his losses 'understandable' and he has a nice first serve that should set him up. The Frenchman's biggest issue is that he can sometimes be a little loose with his own play that can give opponents a chance to get back into matches and take off, but I am not convinced Young is the player to take full advantage.
It may go three sets, but I like Chardy as the underdog to move into the Third Round.
Roberto Bautista-Agut - 3.5 games v Denis Istomin: Denis Istomin is a player that can produce some really good tennis at times, but is far too inconsistent to expect it on a regular basis. He is going to have to be at his very best to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut who is a player that seems to have found his level on the Tour.
The Spaniard rarely loses matches that he would be expected to win over the last eighteen months, but the top players will generally see him off without too many issues. Istomin definitely falls into the former category and he will have to dig deep to make sure he has a chance in this one, although I am favouring Bautista-Agut to be too strong.
Bautista-Agut needs to serve well, but the slower conditions might not be as detrimental to him with his strong defensive play and I believe that will see him edge through in two sets with a 64, 63 victory behind him.
Simone Bolelli + 3.5 games v Milos Raonic: These two players have to be familiar with one another as this is the third time this season that Simone Bolelli and Milos Raonic will meet on the Tour and the previous two matches have been split one win apiece.
The slower conditions in Indian Wells off the court might favour Bolelli, although the Italian has a win over Raonic on the indoor hard courts which should be a surface that favours the big serving Canadian.
Bolelli has a decent serve himself and has been playing at a high level this season where he seems to be bringing a lot more confidence to the court. It is a far cry from twelve months ago when Bolelli was mainly spending time on the Challenger circuit and I think the Italian is a live dog in this one.
I will take the games and look for Bolelli to at least look after his serve for much of the match and force Raonic to dig deep to get through. Bolelli did come through the First Round with some difficulty, but he has played well enough to earn a crucial break in this match which should be enough to make these games count.
Garbine Muguruza - 1.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: This is a huge Third Round match between two players that are on the cusp of really becoming a threat to perhaps win a really big title. Both Garbine Muguruza and Karolina Pliskova are young players that will be tipped to win Grand Slam titles and the winner of this match could go very deep into the tournament at Indian Wells.
They met recently in Dubai in a match that was won by Pliskova, although it was a tight three set match and I think Muguruza has a lot more to find from that match. Too many mistakes and poor serving cost her that day and it won't take a lot for her to turn the tables on Pliskova here at Indian Wells.
I believe Muguruza is going to have more success on slower courts between these players so have to think the conditions in Indian Wells will suit the Spaniard more than Pliskova. It won't be easy unless Muguruza raises her game and cuts out some of her silly mistakes, but this is a player that should be much higher than 22 in the World Rankings and I like her to come through with a 63, 46, 64 win.
Svetlana Kuznetsova v Sloane Stephens: Sloane Stephens has really taken one, or two, steps backward in her career arc that many would have expected from someone who had reached Grand Slam Semi Finals before her 20th birthday. Her form remains inconsistent and I think Svetlana Kuznetsova uses all of her experience to come through and move into the Fourth Round.
It has easily been the best tournament of 2015 for Stephens as she has won back to back matches for the first time- I still see Stephens producing some really good tennis, but mentally she has struggled and those periods of form are quickly replaced by some poor performances.
On the other hand, Kuznetsova hasn't really set the world alight herself and she looks a player that doesn't have a lot left for the WTA Tour compared to the days when she won a couple of Grand Slam titles. The Russian hasn't produced a lot of form in 2015 herself, but she remains a solid competitor that will force Stephens to dig deep, too deep from the form she has shown so far this season.
It's got every chance of being a three setter, but Kuznetsova should be a little stronger favourite for me and I will back her to win this match.
MY PICKS: Jeremy Chardy @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista-Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Simone Bolelli + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 4-6, - 5.40 Units (20 Units Staked, - 27% Yield)
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