I have rarely seen a Grand Slam tournament that has had as few surprise results as this one, especially when it comes to the top seeds in both events. Petra Kvitova is one big name that has exited the tournament, but mainly the best players have been getting through and that can only be good news for the fans coming in for the last week of the tournament.
We've always known that the little things make the big differences in why a player is in the top ten in the World Rankings and perhaps out of the top 50, one of those being conditioning and I think the heat here has certainly been separating the best from the rest.
I know you can't guarantee how a player reacts to the immense heat they have been facing in Melbourne Park, and I am also aware that players like Victoria Azarenka and Novak Djokovic have had problems in such conditions in the past, but that was before both players reached the very top of the women's and men's games respectively.
Nowadays, both have huge reserves in strength which aids them to come through the conditions they face and I think that has made a difference in why so many of the top players have been getting through their matches.
The Third Round is to be concluded on Saturday (or Friday night if you are in Europe) and it should set up some fascinating Fourth Round matches and I am very much looking forward to the remaining week that we have coming up. It would be nice if the picks earn a little more luck, although the Sam Querrey prediction to beat Fabio Fognini had been nagging at the back of my mind and I should have given that more attention.
Richard Gasquet also was a surprise loser to Tommy Robredo which didn't help and I am now hoping that I can get on the right side of some of the poor luck and bad decisions I have made so far this week.
The only positive is the four outright picks are all moving through the draws, although Serena Williams has looked unstoppable in the women's draw to make me wonder if Victoria Azarenka can win her third straight title here. The other real concern I have is for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win the second quarter considering both Roger Federer and Andy Murray are still lurking and playing well in that section.
Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Teymuraz Gabashvili: I don't exactly know how Teymuraz Gabashvili came out of his match with the victory over Fernando Verdasco as he had been outplayed in sets two and three and looked there for the taking.
A lot of that is down to the up and down nature of Verdasco, but I don't think he will be getting as much joy out of Roger Federer who has come through the first two Rounds with a minimum of fuss.
The new racquet and new coach seems to be working well to Federer's liking although I think that there will be bigger tests ahead for him. However, this match looks like one that should be dominated by the former World Number 1 and I do think Federer is going to book his place in the Fourth Round with little concerns on the way.
If Federer can get off to the fast start that he made in the Second Round, I think he will prove too strong and come through 61, 64, 63.
Andy Murray win 3-1 v Feliciano Lopez: Andy Murray has shown no sign of the back problems that required surgery at the end of 2013, but this is by far the toughest test he will have faced at the Australian Open after two routine wins.
He has won all 7 previous meetings against Feliciano Lopez although this will be the first time they have played one another in eighteen months. That was a titanic battle at the US Open that was decided in four sets in favour of Murray, although Lopez gave him all he could handle on that occasion and it was a very, very close match.
Prior to that, Murray had won 9 sets in a row against Lopez, but I do think the Spaniard can ask some awkward questions of the Brit in this one and that is why I fancy him to snatch a set in this match.
The serve gives Lopez a decent platform to work on and he can string together enough decent returns to force a break, but over a three hour contest I would have to back Murray to come through.
It will be tight I'm sure, but Murray should have enough to come through in four sets.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 6.5 games v Gilles Simon: The battle of these two compatriots does look like leaning towards the former Australian Open Finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga if only for the fact that Gilles Simon has had to come through two long five set matches.
It was said that Simon was barely walking ahead of this tournament, but he has shown the fight and determination which made him a top ten player and I can only respect that.
However, back to back five set matches can take it out of any player and we saw Andy Murray crush Simon in similar circumstances twelve months ago at the same event. Tsonga also has a big enough game to keep the pressure on Simon and really make him work for his points.
The conditions may be cooler with this set as one of the evening matches, but Tsonga should prove too good and come through 63, 63, 64.
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Gael Monfils: I liked the way Gael Monfils approached his matches in Doha recently, but that didn't prove to be enough against Rafael Nadal and I think this is a difficult match for the Frenchman to get through.
The problem for Monfils is that he can struggle to find the right balance between attack and defence and that should give Nadal the chance to dictate the rallies and really drain the Monfils energy through this match.
A lot of the times they have met one another, I feel the Monfils mindset has contributed to him going down with heavy set losses and I think Nadal is good enough to force a couple of breaks of serve in the less competitive sets they compete. There will be a close set or two as well when Monfils gets hot, but Nadal should come through 62, 75, 64.
Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: A battling display from Carla Suarez Navarro saw her come through her Second Round match, but she is going to have another tough match in the Third Round against Dominika Cibulkova.
The diminutive Cibulkova has a big game that can see her get on the front foot and dominate rallies, but this will be much more difficult than her Second Round waltz although I do think the edge falls towards the Slovakian.
Cibulkova is actually Ranked lower than Suarez Navarro in the World Rankings, but I think she will have the extra fitness and conditioning to come through with the heavier groundstrokes coming off her side of the court.
Don't be surprised to see plenty of breaks of serve in this one too, but I like Cibulkova to come through 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 8.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Andy Murray Win 3-1 @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 6.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 10-11, - 3.3 Units (40 Units Staked, - 8.25% Yield)
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Friday, 17 January 2014
Thursday, 16 January 2014
Australian Open Day 5 Picks 2014 (January 17th)
I am actually attending the NBA game to be played in London this evening thanks to a friend who got tickets through his place of work, so this thread is going to be shorter than normal.
The Third Round matches will begin on Friday as the Australian Open tournament progresses, albeit without controversy as the first 'heat rule' was implemented of the week. There is the suggestion that the fear of not being able to get through all the matches was what led to the early days ignoring the rule they have in place, which is discretionary, but that the organisers may be more open with fewer matches scheduled per day going forward.
It has remained a mixed bag for the picks thanks to some poor collapses from players in winning positions, but I remain in the positive for the week, although at a much smaller clip than I would like.
Hopefully the next ten days can prove to be a little more productive, while the four outright picks I made at the beginning of the week are all still alive.
Kevin Anderson - 1.5 sets v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: The last time these players met came at a Grand Slam when Edouard Roger-Vasselin recovered from two sets down to beat Kevin Anderson at the French Open in 2010.
Enough time has passed since then and Kevin Anderson is definitely an improved player, while the clay court was always likely to favour Roger-Vasselin more than the big South African.
The hard courts in Australia should swing the momentum towards Anderson and he would have been very happy to get through his last match in straight sets after needing five sets to see off his First Round opponent. That should inspire some confidence in his game, while Anderson also seems to have recovered fully from the virus that affected him at the turn of the year.
This is the best effort Roger-Vasselin has had at Grand Slam level since 2007 and I think the draw has been fairly kind to him despite the mini-surprise in beating Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the Second Round. Roger-Vasselin has also not been beyond the Second Round in either hard court Grand Slam tournament so this is already a successful campaign for him, but I think Anderson has a big enough game to put him away.
I expect tight sets, but I think Anderson will show enough to come through in three or four sets.
Sam Querrey - 1.5 sets v Fabio Fognini: I have to say that Fabio Fognini is one of the more awkward players to really get a feel for, but I believe the hard courts have to favour Sam Querrey and his big serve and forehand more than the Italian.
Querrey impressively dispatched Ernests Gulbis in the Second Round without dropping a set, but the American can be erratic and that does put me off a little in this match, especially if Fognini begins to get a read on the serve.
However, Fognini's own serve is very vulnerable and is one of those where he could be giving Querrey plenty of opportunities to break serve himself and I think that could prove to be the difference in the match.
It has been some time since Querrey reached the Fourth Round of a Grand Slam, but this is as good a chance as he would have had and I think he gets through in three or four sets.
Richard Gasquet - 1.5 sets v Tommy Robredo: If there is one veteran that you wouldn't worry about playing five set matches, even in this heat, Tommy Robredo would be high on the list. He came through three straight five set matches at the French Open last year, the first time a player had done that so the fact he has been pushed early in the tournament here isn't a huge concern.
The match up with Richard Gasquet is probably more of an issue with the Frenchman showing resiliency that some wondered if he ever had in coming through the first two Round without dropping a set.
He was down a double break in the first set against Nikolay Davydenko, but Gasquet highlighted the new found belief in his own game and I think that mentality will give him the edge against Robredo in this one.
Robredo isn't solely a clay specialist and showed at the US Open he can adapt to the hard courts, but his serve is still a more vulnerable weapon than the one that Gasquet has at his own disposal and I expect that to make the difference. It may take four sets when it is all said and done, but I will back Gasquet to win in either three or four sets.
Lucie Safarova + 5.5 games v Na Li: With the way that Na Li dispatched two promising teenagers, it is perhaps a surprise that I want to take the games in this one, but Lucie Safarova has a decent serve and can certainly make this a competitive Third Round match.
The problem for Safarova is trying to find the belief in winning this match considering she has lost six straight times to Li and only won two sets in that run of defeats. However, the lefty serve will give Li something new to think about and there is enough power in the Safarova game to pose problems and I think she will also be able to make inroads against the Li serve.
It can be hard when you don't have belief in someone to win a match to back them to make it competitive, but there are enough positives in the Safarova game to think this spread is perhaps one or two games too high.
The Czech player has to serve well else this could be one-way traffic, but she has shown she is capable of forcing at least one tie-break which could make this number a touch high for Li to cover.
MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson - 1.5 Sets @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 1.5 Sets @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova + 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 9-8, + 0.86 Units (32 Units Staked, + 2.69% Yield)
The Third Round matches will begin on Friday as the Australian Open tournament progresses, albeit without controversy as the first 'heat rule' was implemented of the week. There is the suggestion that the fear of not being able to get through all the matches was what led to the early days ignoring the rule they have in place, which is discretionary, but that the organisers may be more open with fewer matches scheduled per day going forward.
It has remained a mixed bag for the picks thanks to some poor collapses from players in winning positions, but I remain in the positive for the week, although at a much smaller clip than I would like.
Hopefully the next ten days can prove to be a little more productive, while the four outright picks I made at the beginning of the week are all still alive.
Kevin Anderson - 1.5 sets v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: The last time these players met came at a Grand Slam when Edouard Roger-Vasselin recovered from two sets down to beat Kevin Anderson at the French Open in 2010.
Enough time has passed since then and Kevin Anderson is definitely an improved player, while the clay court was always likely to favour Roger-Vasselin more than the big South African.
The hard courts in Australia should swing the momentum towards Anderson and he would have been very happy to get through his last match in straight sets after needing five sets to see off his First Round opponent. That should inspire some confidence in his game, while Anderson also seems to have recovered fully from the virus that affected him at the turn of the year.
This is the best effort Roger-Vasselin has had at Grand Slam level since 2007 and I think the draw has been fairly kind to him despite the mini-surprise in beating Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the Second Round. Roger-Vasselin has also not been beyond the Second Round in either hard court Grand Slam tournament so this is already a successful campaign for him, but I think Anderson has a big enough game to put him away.
I expect tight sets, but I think Anderson will show enough to come through in three or four sets.
Sam Querrey - 1.5 sets v Fabio Fognini: I have to say that Fabio Fognini is one of the more awkward players to really get a feel for, but I believe the hard courts have to favour Sam Querrey and his big serve and forehand more than the Italian.
Querrey impressively dispatched Ernests Gulbis in the Second Round without dropping a set, but the American can be erratic and that does put me off a little in this match, especially if Fognini begins to get a read on the serve.
However, Fognini's own serve is very vulnerable and is one of those where he could be giving Querrey plenty of opportunities to break serve himself and I think that could prove to be the difference in the match.
It has been some time since Querrey reached the Fourth Round of a Grand Slam, but this is as good a chance as he would have had and I think he gets through in three or four sets.
Richard Gasquet - 1.5 sets v Tommy Robredo: If there is one veteran that you wouldn't worry about playing five set matches, even in this heat, Tommy Robredo would be high on the list. He came through three straight five set matches at the French Open last year, the first time a player had done that so the fact he has been pushed early in the tournament here isn't a huge concern.
The match up with Richard Gasquet is probably more of an issue with the Frenchman showing resiliency that some wondered if he ever had in coming through the first two Round without dropping a set.
He was down a double break in the first set against Nikolay Davydenko, but Gasquet highlighted the new found belief in his own game and I think that mentality will give him the edge against Robredo in this one.
Robredo isn't solely a clay specialist and showed at the US Open he can adapt to the hard courts, but his serve is still a more vulnerable weapon than the one that Gasquet has at his own disposal and I expect that to make the difference. It may take four sets when it is all said and done, but I will back Gasquet to win in either three or four sets.
Lucie Safarova + 5.5 games v Na Li: With the way that Na Li dispatched two promising teenagers, it is perhaps a surprise that I want to take the games in this one, but Lucie Safarova has a decent serve and can certainly make this a competitive Third Round match.
The problem for Safarova is trying to find the belief in winning this match considering she has lost six straight times to Li and only won two sets in that run of defeats. However, the lefty serve will give Li something new to think about and there is enough power in the Safarova game to pose problems and I think she will also be able to make inroads against the Li serve.
It can be hard when you don't have belief in someone to win a match to back them to make it competitive, but there are enough positives in the Safarova game to think this spread is perhaps one or two games too high.
The Czech player has to serve well else this could be one-way traffic, but she has shown she is capable of forcing at least one tie-break which could make this number a touch high for Li to cover.
MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson - 1.5 Sets @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 1.5 Sets @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova + 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 9-8, + 0.86 Units (32 Units Staked, + 2.69% Yield)
Wednesday, 15 January 2014
Australian Open Day 4 Picks 2014 (January 16th)
The heat is getting all the attention in the first week of the Australian Open, but there was an interesting development that someone had been arrested for 'court siding' during the event.
Now the authorities have come out with the big statements of crushing an 'international betting syndicate', but it is also a very smart way to scare-monger with the suggestions that this 'is one step' from contacting players and asking them to deliberately throw games.
Put my in the 'can't see it' bracket as this is seems a stretch to me- the 'court sider' is simply trying to find a small edge by getting information across to someone who is sitting by a computer... Most people will know that the television pictures we receive from any sporting event is around 3 seconds slower than 'real time' and the court sider tries to get an edge on the market knowing full well what may have happened before the picture reveals it.
Yes, this does give them an edge, but the time delay that most sites use now means it is much harder to really get a big advantage in my humble opinion and I doubt this is a 'major international syndicate', but maybe a few guys looking to get an edge that used to be much more common place a few years ago.
I've actually seen someone doing it at Queens a couple of years ago, pressing a button on his device while points were being played, especially break points and set points, but that has been less common recently.
It was a mixed bag for the second day in a row for the picks which ended with a split of the six picks, but it could have been a little better if Richard Gasquet hadn't seemingly lost concentration as often as he did in his straight sets win over Nikolay Davydenko. The only real surprise was Julia Goerges losing to Lauren Davis, but it means the profit remains from the first three days, although I haven't kicked on as much as I would have liked.
Day 4 will see the conclusion of the Second Round matches and the heat is likely to be the story again if we continue seeing the amount of retirements we have. I really don't know what the organisers can do in such a situation barring forcing the tournament to go into a third week, they just seem to be stuck between a rock and a hard place at the moment.
Andreas Seppi - 1.5 sets v Donald Young: Andreas Seppi showed plenty of metal and determination in seeing off Lleyton Hewitt in the First Round despite the Australian fighting back from two sets down to force a decider.
That has to be the biggest concern for him just two days later when he faces Donald Young- usually one five set match is not a huge concern for a professional tennis player with improved conditioning, but playing five sets through the terrible heat will be a real test for anyone.
If Seppi has recovered mentally and physically, I think he is a little too solid for someone like Young to deal with. There is no point me rehashing the failure to reach the potential he had when he was growing up, but Young generally doesn't play at the main ATP level and Seppi is certainly a decent enough player to see him off.
Seppi has won both previous matches against Young without dropping a set- I am not sure it will be as straight-forward as that with Seppi's serve being a particularly vulnerable shot, but I like the Italian to win this one in three or four sets.
Fernando Verdasco - 6.5 games v Teymuraz Gabashvili: Fernando Verdasco may actually be enjoying more success on the Doubles Tour these days, but he remains a tough Singles player that loves the longer format of the Grand Slam tournaments.
I think his performance in reaching the Wimbledon Quarter Final last year is his last hurrah at the Slam level as a genuine threat to reach the latter stages, but he is still likely going to be too good for an opponent like Teymuraz Gabashvili.
My concern with backing someone like Verdasco is the mental concentration to see off Gabashvili without dropping a set, but he has a decent serve and will likely have chances to recover mistakes against the Russian.
Verdasco will need to remain cool in the heat, but he has decent conditioning and should be able to break serve a couple of times in a single set to see off Gabashvili with a 62, 64, 64 win.
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 sets v Yen-Hsun Lu: One player who will need to really make a positive impact at the Grand Slam level is Grigor Dimitrov as he looks to continue growing as a player that could be at the top of the men's game in the years that follows.
Dimitrov has a lovely game to watch, there can be little doubt about that, but he had some extremely disappointing losses last year in the Slams, failing to get past the Second Round in all but one of them. And he certainly can't take Yen-Hsun Lu lightly after the latter reached the Final in Auckland last week and exerted little energy in dispatching Jimmy Wang in the First Round.
I have to respect Lu for being a battle-hardened veteran that can make life very difficult for opponents. He has a decent serve and decent groundstrokes and a steadyness about him that can't be dismissed. Lu is rarely ruffled to the point of collapse and I expect him to make life awkward for Dimitrov in this contest.
In saying that, Lu does have a lot of tennis in his legs over the last two weeks and that can quickly catch up with players. Dimitrov should also be able to pressure him with a decent serve and return game and I do feel the Bulgarian is going to make a step up this year. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he drops a set in this one though, so I like Dimitrov to come through in three or four sets.
Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Blaz Kavcic: He is playing with a new racquet and has his childhood idol in his coaching corner, while Roger Federer is going to be a father again later on this year so retirement is certainly not on the agenda at this current time.
I am not sure we will really see the best of Federer and Stefan Edberg until later on in the year when they have more time together, although Federer has admitted that a back injury affected his 2013 more than he let on at the time.
Whether we really see Federer challenging for more Grand Slam titles is yet to be seen, especially if he has too many draws like the one he is facing in Melbourne Park, but he is taking things one match at a time and I expect him to be far too strong for Blaz Kavcic.
Kavcic had a decent tournament in Sydney ahead of this one, but I don't believe he has the right mentality to beat someone like Federer and even making this match competitive would be a surprise. The Slovenian doesn't have a big serve so Federer will have a chance to dominate those rallies and get through this match in double quick time which could be vital to his chances of winning the tournament.
If Federer takes the chances that he let slip in the First Round, I can see him coming through 61, 63, 63.
Maria Sharapova - 6.5 games v Karin Knapp: Maria Sharapova made a fast start to her First Round win over Bethanie Mattek-Sands, but lost her serve at a couple of times which prevented her winning that match much easier than she did.
I think the win would have eased her mind coming into the first Slam of the season, especially with the return from injury, and I expect she is going to hit the ball a little too hard and have a little too much aggression for Karin Knapp to deal with.
Sharapova will know a little about Knapp after she had to see her off in straight sets at the French Open in 2008, although the first set needed a tie-break to separate them before a Sharapova bagel was handed out.
Knapp also had a decent run in the last two Grand Slam tournaments, but Sharapova is a different level of opponent and I think the Russian's power will prove too much for Knapp to deal with. Sharapova has to serve better in this match than in the First Round to cover this spread, but I think she will enjoy plenty of success against the Knapp serve and come through 62, 63.
Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 games v Stefanie Voegele: These two players have enjoyed a couple of tough scraps against one another in the past, but both times have seen Dominika Cibulkova come through with the win and I expect this match to follow suit on Thursday.
Both came through tough First Round matches, but I think there is a little more upside to the Cibulkova game that can make the difference in the match with Stefanie Voegele.
The major problem for Cibulkova will always be trying to get more out of her serve, especially against the better players, but she is a great shot-maker when on form and that certainly helps. She is a solid competitor too and can pressure Voegele in this one, although it won't be an easy match for Cibulkova.
In saying that, I still think she has a little too much in her game and comes through 75, 64.
MY PICKS: Andreas Seppi - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bodog (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 6-5, + 1.02 Units (20 Units Staked, + 5.1% Yield)
Now the authorities have come out with the big statements of crushing an 'international betting syndicate', but it is also a very smart way to scare-monger with the suggestions that this 'is one step' from contacting players and asking them to deliberately throw games.
Put my in the 'can't see it' bracket as this is seems a stretch to me- the 'court sider' is simply trying to find a small edge by getting information across to someone who is sitting by a computer... Most people will know that the television pictures we receive from any sporting event is around 3 seconds slower than 'real time' and the court sider tries to get an edge on the market knowing full well what may have happened before the picture reveals it.
Yes, this does give them an edge, but the time delay that most sites use now means it is much harder to really get a big advantage in my humble opinion and I doubt this is a 'major international syndicate', but maybe a few guys looking to get an edge that used to be much more common place a few years ago.
I've actually seen someone doing it at Queens a couple of years ago, pressing a button on his device while points were being played, especially break points and set points, but that has been less common recently.
It was a mixed bag for the second day in a row for the picks which ended with a split of the six picks, but it could have been a little better if Richard Gasquet hadn't seemingly lost concentration as often as he did in his straight sets win over Nikolay Davydenko. The only real surprise was Julia Goerges losing to Lauren Davis, but it means the profit remains from the first three days, although I haven't kicked on as much as I would have liked.
Day 4 will see the conclusion of the Second Round matches and the heat is likely to be the story again if we continue seeing the amount of retirements we have. I really don't know what the organisers can do in such a situation barring forcing the tournament to go into a third week, they just seem to be stuck between a rock and a hard place at the moment.
Andreas Seppi - 1.5 sets v Donald Young: Andreas Seppi showed plenty of metal and determination in seeing off Lleyton Hewitt in the First Round despite the Australian fighting back from two sets down to force a decider.
That has to be the biggest concern for him just two days later when he faces Donald Young- usually one five set match is not a huge concern for a professional tennis player with improved conditioning, but playing five sets through the terrible heat will be a real test for anyone.
If Seppi has recovered mentally and physically, I think he is a little too solid for someone like Young to deal with. There is no point me rehashing the failure to reach the potential he had when he was growing up, but Young generally doesn't play at the main ATP level and Seppi is certainly a decent enough player to see him off.
Seppi has won both previous matches against Young without dropping a set- I am not sure it will be as straight-forward as that with Seppi's serve being a particularly vulnerable shot, but I like the Italian to win this one in three or four sets.
Fernando Verdasco - 6.5 games v Teymuraz Gabashvili: Fernando Verdasco may actually be enjoying more success on the Doubles Tour these days, but he remains a tough Singles player that loves the longer format of the Grand Slam tournaments.
I think his performance in reaching the Wimbledon Quarter Final last year is his last hurrah at the Slam level as a genuine threat to reach the latter stages, but he is still likely going to be too good for an opponent like Teymuraz Gabashvili.
My concern with backing someone like Verdasco is the mental concentration to see off Gabashvili without dropping a set, but he has a decent serve and will likely have chances to recover mistakes against the Russian.
Verdasco will need to remain cool in the heat, but he has decent conditioning and should be able to break serve a couple of times in a single set to see off Gabashvili with a 62, 64, 64 win.
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 sets v Yen-Hsun Lu: One player who will need to really make a positive impact at the Grand Slam level is Grigor Dimitrov as he looks to continue growing as a player that could be at the top of the men's game in the years that follows.
Dimitrov has a lovely game to watch, there can be little doubt about that, but he had some extremely disappointing losses last year in the Slams, failing to get past the Second Round in all but one of them. And he certainly can't take Yen-Hsun Lu lightly after the latter reached the Final in Auckland last week and exerted little energy in dispatching Jimmy Wang in the First Round.
I have to respect Lu for being a battle-hardened veteran that can make life very difficult for opponents. He has a decent serve and decent groundstrokes and a steadyness about him that can't be dismissed. Lu is rarely ruffled to the point of collapse and I expect him to make life awkward for Dimitrov in this contest.
In saying that, Lu does have a lot of tennis in his legs over the last two weeks and that can quickly catch up with players. Dimitrov should also be able to pressure him with a decent serve and return game and I do feel the Bulgarian is going to make a step up this year. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he drops a set in this one though, so I like Dimitrov to come through in three or four sets.
Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Blaz Kavcic: He is playing with a new racquet and has his childhood idol in his coaching corner, while Roger Federer is going to be a father again later on this year so retirement is certainly not on the agenda at this current time.
I am not sure we will really see the best of Federer and Stefan Edberg until later on in the year when they have more time together, although Federer has admitted that a back injury affected his 2013 more than he let on at the time.
Whether we really see Federer challenging for more Grand Slam titles is yet to be seen, especially if he has too many draws like the one he is facing in Melbourne Park, but he is taking things one match at a time and I expect him to be far too strong for Blaz Kavcic.
Kavcic had a decent tournament in Sydney ahead of this one, but I don't believe he has the right mentality to beat someone like Federer and even making this match competitive would be a surprise. The Slovenian doesn't have a big serve so Federer will have a chance to dominate those rallies and get through this match in double quick time which could be vital to his chances of winning the tournament.
If Federer takes the chances that he let slip in the First Round, I can see him coming through 61, 63, 63.
Maria Sharapova - 6.5 games v Karin Knapp: Maria Sharapova made a fast start to her First Round win over Bethanie Mattek-Sands, but lost her serve at a couple of times which prevented her winning that match much easier than she did.
I think the win would have eased her mind coming into the first Slam of the season, especially with the return from injury, and I expect she is going to hit the ball a little too hard and have a little too much aggression for Karin Knapp to deal with.
Sharapova will know a little about Knapp after she had to see her off in straight sets at the French Open in 2008, although the first set needed a tie-break to separate them before a Sharapova bagel was handed out.
Knapp also had a decent run in the last two Grand Slam tournaments, but Sharapova is a different level of opponent and I think the Russian's power will prove too much for Knapp to deal with. Sharapova has to serve better in this match than in the First Round to cover this spread, but I think she will enjoy plenty of success against the Knapp serve and come through 62, 63.
Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 games v Stefanie Voegele: These two players have enjoyed a couple of tough scraps against one another in the past, but both times have seen Dominika Cibulkova come through with the win and I expect this match to follow suit on Thursday.
Both came through tough First Round matches, but I think there is a little more upside to the Cibulkova game that can make the difference in the match with Stefanie Voegele.
The major problem for Cibulkova will always be trying to get more out of her serve, especially against the better players, but she is a great shot-maker when on form and that certainly helps. She is a solid competitor too and can pressure Voegele in this one, although it won't be an easy match for Cibulkova.
In saying that, I still think she has a little too much in her game and comes through 75, 64.
MY PICKS: Andreas Seppi - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bodog (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 6-5, + 1.02 Units (20 Units Staked, + 5.1% Yield)
Tuesday, 14 January 2014
Australian Open Day 3 Picks 2014 (January 15th)
The Grand Slam tournament should be focusing all the attention on the tennis played on the courts as the pinnacle of the sport, but this week has proven to be all about the heat and the conditions in which players are being asked to play.
It has looked ridiculously hot at times, while a number of players have been forced to retire in matches, albeit not solely because of the weather. That won't stop the negative headlines on the event, especially as there is no sign that the heat is going to ease off in the coming days.
I don't know what the organisers should do, because the tournament has to be played on schedule and no players are going to want to be forced to play twice in a single day, even more so on the men's side of the draw where the best of five sets is already tough enough.
Then again, you don't want to see players collapsing on the court through heat exhaustion, but it is a difficult proposition for the Australian Open organisers to deal with. Maybe the best option would be to close down play for an hour in the middle of the day or use the roof to regulate temperature to an extent, but people aren't paying big money to see the courts empty at these big events.
This is a sensitive issue in which both players and organisers have a convincing argument, and is likely to be one to keep an eye on going forward for the rest of the event.
Yesterday proved to be a hit and miss day for the picks and yet another retirement voided one of the four picks I made. That means I have seen three retirements from eight picks made, a very strange start to the tournament to say the least. We now move onto the Second Round with the two favourites to win the men's and women's event in action on Wednesday and the tennis quality should improve with more competitive matches to be played.
Dmitry Tursunov - 1.5 games v Denis Istomin: Both of these men came through their First Round match in straight sets which is going to be critical in the first week of the tournament to keep energy in the bank in this two week event.
Both will fancy their chances of coming through the match, but I like Dmitry Tursunov's chances to get through and stamp the form that saw him beat Istomin last week in Sydney. That is the third straight win for Tursunov against Istomin, winning every set they have competed and I can see why that might have happened.
Both players will look to work behind a big first serve and heavy groundstrokes, but Denis Istomin can be erratic at times when it comes to his performances and that can lead to a lot of unforced errors. Tursunov has been a little more steady, which has prevented him from beating the very best players on the Tour, but that should still be good enough in this Second Round match.
There will be a couple of tight sets which may end up being split in this one, but I believe Tursunov proves too strong when it is all said and done and comes through in four sets and covers this spread.
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games v Nikolay Davydenko: Richard Gasquet wasn't at his best in the First Round, but still recorded a comfortable victory over David Guez and I like his chances to back that up with another win over Nikolay Davydenko.
Davydenko had to come through a hard fought five set match in the First Round and is clearly a player in the twilight of his career. He can still make shots from the back of the court, but the serve will give his opponents chances and Gasquet is playing at a more effective level these days of the two.
The Frenchman has a 6-2 head to head record against Davydenko, which includes a comprehensive win at the French Open last year, but Gasquet has to serve a little better if he is to make this a match that he controls.
In the First Round, Gasquet gave up too many chances to Guez, but I think his focus will be better against a dangerous opponent like Davydenko and I like him to come through 63, 64, 64.
Stanislas Wawrinka - 6.5 games v Alejandro Falla: I was impressed with the limited action Stanislas Wawrinka had on Monday against Andrey Golubev and that form should prove to be too strong for Alejandro Falla in this Second Round match.
As easy as things looked for Falla in the First Round, he gave up a lot of chances on his own serve and Wawrinka is playing with a confidence that will see him exploit those chances if they come his way. He has the look of a player that is comfortable with his ability and what he can do on a tennis court and looks set for a decent run in 2014 following his career best 2013.
Wawrinka has to keep his focus if he is to cover this spread, but he has also shown he is capable of breaking serve a couple of times in a set and I would expect him to get through in straight sets.
The left hander will cause some problems initially, but I think Wawrinka wins 64, 63, 63.
Julia Goerges - 2.5 games v Lauren Davis: Julia Goerges had a terrible 2013 which saw her slip down the Rankings, but she has pushed Caroline Wozniacki early this season and is coming off a surprise win over Sara Errani in the First Round.
I expect the German to be too good for Lauren Davis in this Second Round match as the American has struggled at the Grand Slam level and Goerges is certainly a capable player on her day.
There is no doubt that she has to earn the trust back after the way she performed in 2013, but Goerges seems to have a little more confidence in her own game at the moment and that can make the world of difference on the women's Tour.
She has a big enough game to make the difference on the hard courts and I think Goerges can at least dominate the majority of the rallies to take advantage of Davis and move into the Third Round.
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games v Annika Beck: One player that will certainly be looking to have a big impact at the top of the women's game in 2014 is Ana Ivanovic and she has already picked up her first title in Auckland.
The pressure of getting to the World Number 1 seemed to take away the momentum that Ivanovic had built up, and she has not really featured in the latter end of Grand Slam tournaments for some time. I still don't think she is good enough to take on the very best players on the Tour, but the confidence is improving and I like her to come through this Second Round match with little problem.
Her teenage opponent may be ranked at Number 54 in the World, but has yet to make a sustained impact at this level and it will be tough for Annika Beck to do that against an in-form Ivanovic.
The Serb has heavy groundstrokes which will be tough to contain for Beck and I do think Ivanovic will find a couple of breaks in at least one of the sets to come through 63, 63 in this one.
Sam Stosur - 2.5 games v Tsvetana Pironkova: The Australian Open has never been kind to Sam Stosur and she is another player that may struggle to get back up the Rankings with more erratic displays over the last twelve months than we have seen for a while.
The home crowd will certainly be behind her in this match against the winner of the tournament in Sydney, but I am wondering how Tsvetana Pironkova is feeling with all the tennis she has played in the last ten days.
Confidence has been a problem for Pironkova in the past, but she still has to answer the questions that will surround her and whether she is now going to show a year long consistency, or the performance in Sydney was just the exception to her usual level outside of the grass courts.
Stosur has dominated the head to head, but that is no surprise considering the way the Bulgarian has played off the grass courts and I think the win in Sydney has over-rated Pironkova's chances in this one. She did burn me twice last week with wins over top ten players, but I think she may struggle to keep her emotions in check in this evening session match and I like Stosur to come through 63, 46, 64.
MY PICKS: Dmitry Tursunov - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 6.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 3-2, + 1.92 Units (8 Units Staked, + 24% Yield)
It has looked ridiculously hot at times, while a number of players have been forced to retire in matches, albeit not solely because of the weather. That won't stop the negative headlines on the event, especially as there is no sign that the heat is going to ease off in the coming days.
I don't know what the organisers should do, because the tournament has to be played on schedule and no players are going to want to be forced to play twice in a single day, even more so on the men's side of the draw where the best of five sets is already tough enough.
Then again, you don't want to see players collapsing on the court through heat exhaustion, but it is a difficult proposition for the Australian Open organisers to deal with. Maybe the best option would be to close down play for an hour in the middle of the day or use the roof to regulate temperature to an extent, but people aren't paying big money to see the courts empty at these big events.
This is a sensitive issue in which both players and organisers have a convincing argument, and is likely to be one to keep an eye on going forward for the rest of the event.
Yesterday proved to be a hit and miss day for the picks and yet another retirement voided one of the four picks I made. That means I have seen three retirements from eight picks made, a very strange start to the tournament to say the least. We now move onto the Second Round with the two favourites to win the men's and women's event in action on Wednesday and the tennis quality should improve with more competitive matches to be played.
Dmitry Tursunov - 1.5 games v Denis Istomin: Both of these men came through their First Round match in straight sets which is going to be critical in the first week of the tournament to keep energy in the bank in this two week event.
Both will fancy their chances of coming through the match, but I like Dmitry Tursunov's chances to get through and stamp the form that saw him beat Istomin last week in Sydney. That is the third straight win for Tursunov against Istomin, winning every set they have competed and I can see why that might have happened.
Both players will look to work behind a big first serve and heavy groundstrokes, but Denis Istomin can be erratic at times when it comes to his performances and that can lead to a lot of unforced errors. Tursunov has been a little more steady, which has prevented him from beating the very best players on the Tour, but that should still be good enough in this Second Round match.
There will be a couple of tight sets which may end up being split in this one, but I believe Tursunov proves too strong when it is all said and done and comes through in four sets and covers this spread.
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games v Nikolay Davydenko: Richard Gasquet wasn't at his best in the First Round, but still recorded a comfortable victory over David Guez and I like his chances to back that up with another win over Nikolay Davydenko.
Davydenko had to come through a hard fought five set match in the First Round and is clearly a player in the twilight of his career. He can still make shots from the back of the court, but the serve will give his opponents chances and Gasquet is playing at a more effective level these days of the two.
The Frenchman has a 6-2 head to head record against Davydenko, which includes a comprehensive win at the French Open last year, but Gasquet has to serve a little better if he is to make this a match that he controls.
In the First Round, Gasquet gave up too many chances to Guez, but I think his focus will be better against a dangerous opponent like Davydenko and I like him to come through 63, 64, 64.
Stanislas Wawrinka - 6.5 games v Alejandro Falla: I was impressed with the limited action Stanislas Wawrinka had on Monday against Andrey Golubev and that form should prove to be too strong for Alejandro Falla in this Second Round match.
As easy as things looked for Falla in the First Round, he gave up a lot of chances on his own serve and Wawrinka is playing with a confidence that will see him exploit those chances if they come his way. He has the look of a player that is comfortable with his ability and what he can do on a tennis court and looks set for a decent run in 2014 following his career best 2013.
Wawrinka has to keep his focus if he is to cover this spread, but he has also shown he is capable of breaking serve a couple of times in a set and I would expect him to get through in straight sets.
The left hander will cause some problems initially, but I think Wawrinka wins 64, 63, 63.
Julia Goerges - 2.5 games v Lauren Davis: Julia Goerges had a terrible 2013 which saw her slip down the Rankings, but she has pushed Caroline Wozniacki early this season and is coming off a surprise win over Sara Errani in the First Round.
I expect the German to be too good for Lauren Davis in this Second Round match as the American has struggled at the Grand Slam level and Goerges is certainly a capable player on her day.
There is no doubt that she has to earn the trust back after the way she performed in 2013, but Goerges seems to have a little more confidence in her own game at the moment and that can make the world of difference on the women's Tour.
She has a big enough game to make the difference on the hard courts and I think Goerges can at least dominate the majority of the rallies to take advantage of Davis and move into the Third Round.
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games v Annika Beck: One player that will certainly be looking to have a big impact at the top of the women's game in 2014 is Ana Ivanovic and she has already picked up her first title in Auckland.
The pressure of getting to the World Number 1 seemed to take away the momentum that Ivanovic had built up, and she has not really featured in the latter end of Grand Slam tournaments for some time. I still don't think she is good enough to take on the very best players on the Tour, but the confidence is improving and I like her to come through this Second Round match with little problem.
Her teenage opponent may be ranked at Number 54 in the World, but has yet to make a sustained impact at this level and it will be tough for Annika Beck to do that against an in-form Ivanovic.
The Serb has heavy groundstrokes which will be tough to contain for Beck and I do think Ivanovic will find a couple of breaks in at least one of the sets to come through 63, 63 in this one.
Sam Stosur - 2.5 games v Tsvetana Pironkova: The Australian Open has never been kind to Sam Stosur and she is another player that may struggle to get back up the Rankings with more erratic displays over the last twelve months than we have seen for a while.
The home crowd will certainly be behind her in this match against the winner of the tournament in Sydney, but I am wondering how Tsvetana Pironkova is feeling with all the tennis she has played in the last ten days.
Confidence has been a problem for Pironkova in the past, but she still has to answer the questions that will surround her and whether she is now going to show a year long consistency, or the performance in Sydney was just the exception to her usual level outside of the grass courts.
Stosur has dominated the head to head, but that is no surprise considering the way the Bulgarian has played off the grass courts and I think the win in Sydney has over-rated Pironkova's chances in this one. She did burn me twice last week with wins over top ten players, but I think she may struggle to keep her emotions in check in this evening session match and I like Stosur to come through 63, 46, 64.
MY PICKS: Dmitry Tursunov - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 6.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 3-2, + 1.92 Units (8 Units Staked, + 24% Yield)
Monday, 13 January 2014
Australian Open Day 2 Picks 2014 (January 14th)
I've only been able to catch the highlights of the first day at the Australian Open, but I did notice that it was the women's draw that saw the majority of the surprises with three of the leading seeds all going on before the tournament has really got off the ground.
There were only three or four retirements from what I have seen from the results, but it was just a little weird to see two of those coming out of the four picks I made on Day 1. To be perfectly honest, it looked like it would have been a split with one likely to win (Stanislas Wawrinka pick) and one looking a loser (Tommy Haas) so I won't be concerning myself too much about that.
It felt a lot better seeing the other two picks both finding their way into the winner's enclosure, but we are at an extremely early stage of this two week tournament and I will be hoping to kick on from here with more picks on Day 2.
Of course, you can still see the outright picks I have made on the tournament on this link.
Lleyton Hewitt win 3-1 v Andreas Seppi: There is a lot of positives around Lleyton Hewitt after his title win in Brisbane where he beat Roger Federer in the Final, but I can't help think that the layers have over-estimated the veteran's chances of making this a straight-forward First Round win.
It seems to be the case that Andreas Seppi is seen as a simple opponent that will be comfortably seen off, but the Italian can make this a very awkward encounter for the home favourite.
Seppi's serve is the not the best, but Hewitt has been erratic with his own form in the twilight of his career and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the older man drop a set in this one, even in a winning effort.
Confidence is high in the Hewitt camp that a strong Slam is in prospect for their man, but he is rarely someone that blows opponents away these days and I can see the first two sets being split before the home crowd help Hewitt rally for the win.
Andy Murray - 9.5 games v Go Soeda: The back surgery seems to have been successful, but Andy Murray and his supporters are not expecting a strong tournament, meaning they are not expecting the two-time Grand Slam winner to really have a chance to win this Australian Open.
Murray has enjoyed considerable success at Melbourne Park, but his real expectation is to come through this year without any issues with the back and put together a real assault on the later Slams to be played.
Even with that in mind, this should be the perfect First Round opponent for Murray to get his current event underway and I expect he will see off Go Soeda without too many scares.
Whenever I have seen Soeda play, especially against the better players on Tour, he has looked vulnerable behind his serve and I think that will only be highlighted all the more by someone like Andy Murray who can return serve as effectively as anyone on the ATP Tour. Soeda may have more success against the Murray serve, which has always been a little loose when it comes to those opponents he should beat, but it is hard to imagine the Japanese player having a real impact in this match.
Murray has said he is feeling relaxed and ready to get the tournament underway and I will be looking for him to come through with little concern and a 63, 62, 63 route through to the next Round.
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v Bernard Tomic: This is the best match of the First Round, but one that I think will be a lesson for the young Australian Bernard Tomic as he takes on the World Number 1 Rafael Nadal in the first match in the evening session.
This won't be the first time that Tomic has taken on Nadal at the Australian Open, losing in straight sets in 2011 and while the youngster has improved since then, I would suggest that Nadal is playing at a higher level since that time too.
Tomic has lost to Roger Federer twice and Nadal in the last three appearances at this tournament so he is probably a little disappointed that he hasn't had an easier draw, and I think the problem will be is trying to match the Nadal intensity over the best of five sets situation. We have seen Tomic wilt in the past and I think he struggles to remain tuned if he falls behind by a set and a break which could help Nadal record a more comfortable win than the layers may think.
Nadal just doesn't take a point off and will compete for every moment he is out on the court- I expect that to be too much for Tomic in a 64, 62, 63 win for the second favourite to win the title.
Maria Sharapova - 6.5 games v Bethanie Mattek-Sands: The second of the matches to be played in the evening session is between Maria Sharapova and Bethanie Mattek-Sands and I think the World Number 3 will be able to get through in comfortable fashion.
The match up has been a good one for Sharapova who has won all 4 previous encounters with Mattek-Sands, losing just one set in that time and winning every set by at least a 63 margin.
Sharapova's shoulder issues at the end of last season are a concern, especially if she is struggling for consistency with that stroke, but I think they are more likely to be exposed later in the tournament than in this First Round match.
However, the last twelve months has seen Mattek-Sands really improve some of her results on the Tour including a win over Agnieszka Radwanska last week in Sydney. Mattek-Sands had to retire with a lower back issue at that tournament, but I think that was more a precaution than a serious problem and I think the American will pose some problems with her shot-making ability.
Unfortunately for Mattek-Sands, she is coming up against one of the serious contenders for any tournament she enters and I think Sharapova is going to prove to be too mentally strong and come through 63, 62 after a tough work out.
MY PICKS: Lleyton Hewitt win 3-1 @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Andy Murray - 9.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 2-0, + 2.92 Units (3 Units Staked, + 97.33% Yield)
There were only three or four retirements from what I have seen from the results, but it was just a little weird to see two of those coming out of the four picks I made on Day 1. To be perfectly honest, it looked like it would have been a split with one likely to win (Stanislas Wawrinka pick) and one looking a loser (Tommy Haas) so I won't be concerning myself too much about that.
It felt a lot better seeing the other two picks both finding their way into the winner's enclosure, but we are at an extremely early stage of this two week tournament and I will be hoping to kick on from here with more picks on Day 2.
Of course, you can still see the outright picks I have made on the tournament on this link.
Lleyton Hewitt win 3-1 v Andreas Seppi: There is a lot of positives around Lleyton Hewitt after his title win in Brisbane where he beat Roger Federer in the Final, but I can't help think that the layers have over-estimated the veteran's chances of making this a straight-forward First Round win.
It seems to be the case that Andreas Seppi is seen as a simple opponent that will be comfortably seen off, but the Italian can make this a very awkward encounter for the home favourite.
Seppi's serve is the not the best, but Hewitt has been erratic with his own form in the twilight of his career and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the older man drop a set in this one, even in a winning effort.
Confidence is high in the Hewitt camp that a strong Slam is in prospect for their man, but he is rarely someone that blows opponents away these days and I can see the first two sets being split before the home crowd help Hewitt rally for the win.
Andy Murray - 9.5 games v Go Soeda: The back surgery seems to have been successful, but Andy Murray and his supporters are not expecting a strong tournament, meaning they are not expecting the two-time Grand Slam winner to really have a chance to win this Australian Open.
Murray has enjoyed considerable success at Melbourne Park, but his real expectation is to come through this year without any issues with the back and put together a real assault on the later Slams to be played.
Even with that in mind, this should be the perfect First Round opponent for Murray to get his current event underway and I expect he will see off Go Soeda without too many scares.
Whenever I have seen Soeda play, especially against the better players on Tour, he has looked vulnerable behind his serve and I think that will only be highlighted all the more by someone like Andy Murray who can return serve as effectively as anyone on the ATP Tour. Soeda may have more success against the Murray serve, which has always been a little loose when it comes to those opponents he should beat, but it is hard to imagine the Japanese player having a real impact in this match.
Murray has said he is feeling relaxed and ready to get the tournament underway and I will be looking for him to come through with little concern and a 63, 62, 63 route through to the next Round.
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v Bernard Tomic: This is the best match of the First Round, but one that I think will be a lesson for the young Australian Bernard Tomic as he takes on the World Number 1 Rafael Nadal in the first match in the evening session.
This won't be the first time that Tomic has taken on Nadal at the Australian Open, losing in straight sets in 2011 and while the youngster has improved since then, I would suggest that Nadal is playing at a higher level since that time too.
Tomic has lost to Roger Federer twice and Nadal in the last three appearances at this tournament so he is probably a little disappointed that he hasn't had an easier draw, and I think the problem will be is trying to match the Nadal intensity over the best of five sets situation. We have seen Tomic wilt in the past and I think he struggles to remain tuned if he falls behind by a set and a break which could help Nadal record a more comfortable win than the layers may think.
Nadal just doesn't take a point off and will compete for every moment he is out on the court- I expect that to be too much for Tomic in a 64, 62, 63 win for the second favourite to win the title.
Maria Sharapova - 6.5 games v Bethanie Mattek-Sands: The second of the matches to be played in the evening session is between Maria Sharapova and Bethanie Mattek-Sands and I think the World Number 3 will be able to get through in comfortable fashion.
The match up has been a good one for Sharapova who has won all 4 previous encounters with Mattek-Sands, losing just one set in that time and winning every set by at least a 63 margin.
Sharapova's shoulder issues at the end of last season are a concern, especially if she is struggling for consistency with that stroke, but I think they are more likely to be exposed later in the tournament than in this First Round match.
However, the last twelve months has seen Mattek-Sands really improve some of her results on the Tour including a win over Agnieszka Radwanska last week in Sydney. Mattek-Sands had to retire with a lower back issue at that tournament, but I think that was more a precaution than a serious problem and I think the American will pose some problems with her shot-making ability.
Unfortunately for Mattek-Sands, she is coming up against one of the serious contenders for any tournament she enters and I think Sharapova is going to prove to be too mentally strong and come through 63, 62 after a tough work out.
MY PICKS: Lleyton Hewitt win 3-1 @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Andy Murray - 9.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 2-0, + 2.92 Units (3 Units Staked, + 97.33% Yield)
Sunday, 12 January 2014
Australian Open Day 1 Picks 2014 (January 13th)
So this is it, the start of the first Grand Slam tournament of the new tennis season and I will be looking forward to watching highlights for the most part this week. With the matches taking place during the night on most occasions, it does mean getting up early to catch some of the matches that have taken place while us in the UK catch our sleep, and then seeing some of the live tennis thanks to the evening session.
I have focused on both men's and women's tournaments with a preview and breakdown of both draws as well as outright picks which can be seen here.
These are my picks from Day 1 of the tournament as the First Round gets underway in the bottom half of the men's draw and the top half of the women's draw gets going.
Stanislas Wawrinka - 8.5 games v Andrey Golubev: The First Round of tournaments can see players ease their way into what is going to be a tough two weeks, especially in the conditions in Melbourne Park. It is going to be hot out there as the tournament begins, which could lead to silly mistakes from players as that affects their concentration.
Stanislas Wawrinka is not normally someone I look to when covering large spreads, but the match up looks a good one for him on paper as Andrey Golubev has struggled for form over the last couple of years.
The way Wawrinka has been playing, he will create chances to break serve in this one, although the Swiss player can also be guilty of dropping his serve in erratic fashion. That is probably the biggest hindrance to him winning this match comfortably, although I think Wawrinka finds a way to come through at least one set with a couple of breaks of serve that sets him up for a fairly routine First Round win.
I will say that Andrey Golubev has a pretty good serve when he cranks it up and finds a rhythm behind that shot, but these players are in vastly different places since Golubev beat Wawrinka in three sets at the Cincinnati Masters in 2011.
Most of Golubev's time is now spent on the Challenger Tour and I think Wawrinka will come through a tight first set and then win this match 75, 62, 63.
Alejandro Falla - 1.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: It is only because I don't necessarily trust Alejandro Falla that I can only have a small interest in him in this match, but I do think he has the edge in the First Round against Mikhail Kukushkin.
Falla has enjoyed success on the hard courts and comes to the Australian Open with a Challenger title under his belt on the hard courts in France so his confidence has to be much better than Kukushkin who reached the Final in Moscow at the end of last season but has suffered an injury which has led to 2 defeats to open 2014.
I expect Kukushkin to cause some problems with a decent serve behind him, but the left handed Falla has a decent serve himself and I do think the Colombian is in a better place mentally. However, I don't feel I can be completely comfortable over a player that can throw in some special performances, as he did against Roger Federer at Wimbledon, but also throw in a real shocker so this will only be a one unit play.
Richard Gasquet - 8.5 games v David Guez: Coming through the qualifiers will give David Guez some confidence, but he is facing a compatriot who he would know all about in Richard Gasquet and that can be a tough mental obstacle to overcome.
Like Stanislas Wawrinka, Richard Gasquet had something of a 'break out' year in 2013 where he must feel he can compete with the very best players on the Tour. Since beginning to work with Sebastien Grosjean, Gasquet had improved to the point that beating those he was expected to became a common occurrence, but now he is beginning to take that on and put up big displays against the top players.
I'm not sure he has enough to win a Grand Slam, but it is those performances that will see him come through some of the earlier Rounds at the Grand Slam with more comfort than he has in the past. You would expect this match to be to Gasquet's liking as Guez is not someone that is used to these extended matches and not used to playing at this level.
He hasn't exactly put a stamp on the Challenger Tour either and I can see Gasquet pressuring the serve and covering the spread as long as he keeps his concentrating behind holding his own serve. I would expect a couple of breaks in a single set to get it going and I like Gasquet to get through with a 63, 62, 63 win.
Tommy Haas - 1.5 sets v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: I know Tommy Haas is coming off a surprise early exit in Auckland but I still think the veteran German player is going to be too good for Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in this First Round match.
It just seemed that Haas was a little off coming off the break in the loss to Jack Sock, but this match gives him a little more time to get into it with the best of five scenario and I think the first match of 2014 will have at least removed the cobwebs.
He is also playing Garcia-Lopez who doesn't have the most efficient serve which gives opponents a chance to break and that can be critical on the hard courts. It hasn't surprised me that he only had a single win on the hard courts last season, although he has trebled that in the first two weeks of 2014.
It was an especially bad year for Garcia-Lopez on the hard courts in 2013, but Haas has a serve that can keep him under pressure and I do think the German comes through in three or four sets. Haas can be a little erratic at times which has cost him a chance to win a Grand Slam, dropping too many silly sets early, but I think he will find chances to break the serve of his opponent which should give Haas the chance to make amends of any poor service games he plays.
MY PICKS: Stanislas Wawrinka - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alejandro Falla - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Richard Gasquet - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 1.5 Sets @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
I have focused on both men's and women's tournaments with a preview and breakdown of both draws as well as outright picks which can be seen here.
These are my picks from Day 1 of the tournament as the First Round gets underway in the bottom half of the men's draw and the top half of the women's draw gets going.
Stanislas Wawrinka - 8.5 games v Andrey Golubev: The First Round of tournaments can see players ease their way into what is going to be a tough two weeks, especially in the conditions in Melbourne Park. It is going to be hot out there as the tournament begins, which could lead to silly mistakes from players as that affects their concentration.
Stanislas Wawrinka is not normally someone I look to when covering large spreads, but the match up looks a good one for him on paper as Andrey Golubev has struggled for form over the last couple of years.
The way Wawrinka has been playing, he will create chances to break serve in this one, although the Swiss player can also be guilty of dropping his serve in erratic fashion. That is probably the biggest hindrance to him winning this match comfortably, although I think Wawrinka finds a way to come through at least one set with a couple of breaks of serve that sets him up for a fairly routine First Round win.
I will say that Andrey Golubev has a pretty good serve when he cranks it up and finds a rhythm behind that shot, but these players are in vastly different places since Golubev beat Wawrinka in three sets at the Cincinnati Masters in 2011.
Most of Golubev's time is now spent on the Challenger Tour and I think Wawrinka will come through a tight first set and then win this match 75, 62, 63.
Alejandro Falla - 1.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: It is only because I don't necessarily trust Alejandro Falla that I can only have a small interest in him in this match, but I do think he has the edge in the First Round against Mikhail Kukushkin.
Falla has enjoyed success on the hard courts and comes to the Australian Open with a Challenger title under his belt on the hard courts in France so his confidence has to be much better than Kukushkin who reached the Final in Moscow at the end of last season but has suffered an injury which has led to 2 defeats to open 2014.
I expect Kukushkin to cause some problems with a decent serve behind him, but the left handed Falla has a decent serve himself and I do think the Colombian is in a better place mentally. However, I don't feel I can be completely comfortable over a player that can throw in some special performances, as he did against Roger Federer at Wimbledon, but also throw in a real shocker so this will only be a one unit play.
Richard Gasquet - 8.5 games v David Guez: Coming through the qualifiers will give David Guez some confidence, but he is facing a compatriot who he would know all about in Richard Gasquet and that can be a tough mental obstacle to overcome.
Like Stanislas Wawrinka, Richard Gasquet had something of a 'break out' year in 2013 where he must feel he can compete with the very best players on the Tour. Since beginning to work with Sebastien Grosjean, Gasquet had improved to the point that beating those he was expected to became a common occurrence, but now he is beginning to take that on and put up big displays against the top players.
I'm not sure he has enough to win a Grand Slam, but it is those performances that will see him come through some of the earlier Rounds at the Grand Slam with more comfort than he has in the past. You would expect this match to be to Gasquet's liking as Guez is not someone that is used to these extended matches and not used to playing at this level.
He hasn't exactly put a stamp on the Challenger Tour either and I can see Gasquet pressuring the serve and covering the spread as long as he keeps his concentrating behind holding his own serve. I would expect a couple of breaks in a single set to get it going and I like Gasquet to get through with a 63, 62, 63 win.
Tommy Haas - 1.5 sets v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: I know Tommy Haas is coming off a surprise early exit in Auckland but I still think the veteran German player is going to be too good for Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in this First Round match.
It just seemed that Haas was a little off coming off the break in the loss to Jack Sock, but this match gives him a little more time to get into it with the best of five scenario and I think the first match of 2014 will have at least removed the cobwebs.
He is also playing Garcia-Lopez who doesn't have the most efficient serve which gives opponents a chance to break and that can be critical on the hard courts. It hasn't surprised me that he only had a single win on the hard courts last season, although he has trebled that in the first two weeks of 2014.
It was an especially bad year for Garcia-Lopez on the hard courts in 2013, but Haas has a serve that can keep him under pressure and I do think the German comes through in three or four sets. Haas can be a little erratic at times which has cost him a chance to win a Grand Slam, dropping too many silly sets early, but I think he will find chances to break the serve of his opponent which should give Haas the chance to make amends of any poor service games he plays.
MY PICKS: Stanislas Wawrinka - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alejandro Falla - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Richard Gasquet - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 1.5 Sets @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open Outright Picks 2014 (January 13-26)
It has been a tough start to the new tennis season for the picks, but I am looking forward to the first Grand Slam of the season at the Australian Open, although it has regularly been a tournament that has had a number of surprises. That shouldn't be unexpected considering how early in the season this tournament takes place with most players coming off a long lay off before taking part.
In an ideal world, I think this tournament should be pushed back another month so players can get into a better rhythm when reaching Melbourne Park, but the Tour is pretty set in stone to this point and I don't foresee that happening any time soon.
The familiar faces will be the leading contenders this week in both the men's and women's events, particularly with the way the draws have panned out. Below you can see my preview of both events as well as the outright picks from this two week tournament.
In an ideal world, I think this tournament should be pushed back another month so players can get into a better rhythm when reaching Melbourne Park, but the Tour is pretty set in stone to this point and I don't foresee that happening any time soon.
The familiar faces will be the leading contenders this week in both the men's and women's events, particularly with the way the draws have panned out. Below you can see my preview of both events as well as the outright picks from this two week tournament.
Men's Tournament
First Quarter
For the first time since the Wimbledon tournament of 2011, Rafael Nadal, has the privilege of being the Number 1 seed at a Grand Slam tournament. After a stellar return from a seven month lay off in 2013, Nadal won 2 of the 3 Grand Slam tournaments he competed in and returned to the World Number 1 Ranking in October, but he remains the second favourite to win this event after the draw confirmed that.
He hasn't been given the easiest starts to the tournament with home hope Bernard Tomic in the First Round, but the latter has too many lapses in his play to think he can win a best of five set match against the Spaniard.
Gael Monfils has made a strong start to 2014 and could produce fireworks in a potential Third Round clash against Nadal, while a rejuvenated Lleyton Hewitt beat Roger Federer in Brisbane to win the title and would be a potential Fourth Round opponent.
While they can make life difficult, it again seems a little far-fetched to see either of those players being able to ride the crest of a wave for over three hours against Nadal in a best of five set match.
The biggest danger for Nadal will most likely come from the bottom half of this quarter in the form of Juan Martin Del Potro who won the title in Sydney last week and is one of the few players that can hit through Nadal consistently when on his game. He had a poor 2013 Australian Open which resulted in an early exit, but the draw looks a decent one for Del Potro to get comfortable into the event this time around.
Someone like Grigor Dimitrov or Milos Raonic could be a troublesome Fourth Round opponent for Del Potro, but anything other than the seeded Quarter Final would be a surprise and it may come down to which of the two players has negotiated their way through the draw more effectively.
First Quarter Prediction: I like Rafael Nadal to come through against Juan Martin Del Potro
Second Quarter
The second quarter of the draw looks one of the more open ones in the section as the two highest seeded players, Andy Murray and Roger Federer, have some big questions to answer if they are to get through to the Semi Final.
Andy Murray is coming off a long lay-off where he went through surgery on his back and the expectation in the British camp has been kept fairly low due to that with his best tennis not expected until later in the season. The draw hasn't helped Murray with a potentially tough Third Round match against Judy Murray's favourite, Feliciano Lopez, and the Fourth Round seeded to play John Isner, although the big American has been hobbled despite winning in Auckland.
Roger Federer may have reached the Final in Brisbane, but a defeat to Lleyton Hewitt in that event once again highlighted that the former World Number 1 is as vulnerable as he has been for a few years and he can't expect an easy passage through the draw. Someone like Fernando Verdasco would have been a routine win for Federer in years gone by, but he has lost to worse players than the Spaniard which makes that Third Round match look dangerous.
The biggest threat in the section to both men may come in the form of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a former Finalist at the Australian Open, but one who has to negotiate a couple of tough early matches himself. Tsonga pushed Federer to five sets here last season and has beaten Andy Murray in an exhibition match so the Frenchman could be the man to come through to face Nadal from an awkward portion of the draw.
Second Quarter Prediction: How about a surprise Semi Finalist in the form of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga?
Third Quarter
While the second quarter of the draw has the star names, the third quarter looks one devoid of serious threats to win the whole tournament, even with the Number 3 seeded David Ferrer and Number 7 seeded Tomas Berdych in the section.
Out of the two players, I think Berdych is the one that can come through with the way the draw has panned out as he has the lesser question marks about him compared with Ferrer who I do think will slide down the Rankings this season.
Berdych has a couple of comfortable Rounds to negotiate and should get the better of either Ivo Karlovic or Ivan Dodig in the Third Round despite losing to the former in Doha. He has dominated Kevin Anderson, a potential Fourth Round opponent, although the bigger threat may come from Tommy Haas.
The German veteran, however, failed to really produce consistently in the Grand Slams last season and has too many lapses to guarantee his place in the Fourth Round, especially with Kevin Anderson as a Third Round opponent albeit one that hasn't played a match this season because of an infection.
In the last couple of years, David Ferrer could be said to have landed in a great section of the draw, but the last six months has seen his consistency begin to slip. Even matches where I would expect him to win have seen the Spaniard fall to a defeat and he isn't as trustworthy to beat those he should anymore.
The draw hasn't produced a genuine player that I would fancy to beat a Ferrer on form, but someone like Jeremy Chardy could be the man to do so in the Third Round or perhaps Alexandr Dolgopolov, although the latter is another that can be erratic at best.
Third Quarter Prediction: Tomas Berdych may take advantage of David Ferrer's loss of form
Fourth Quarter
Novak Djokovic has won this event three times in a row and is the big favourite to make it four in a row after the draw was made at the end of last week. It would be a big surprise to me if Novak Djokovic was to drop more than a couple of sets in the first four matches he is likely to play here, that is how kind the draw has been for him, and I expect him to get through to the Quarter Final without too many real concerns.
That Quarter Final will present his biggest challenge of the tournament to that point with the likes of Richard Gasquet and Stanislas Wawrinka the two big players in that part of the draw.
Gasquet has definitely improved mentally and I think his run at the US Open will give him more confidence that he deserves his place amongst the best players on the Tour. Wawrinka will have the same mental belief coming into this season after an impressive 2013 himself and could very much overtake Roger Federer as the Swiss Number 1 by the end of the year.
The problem for these two players is that they are likely going to face one another in the Quarter Final and anything like a repeat of their French Open Fourth Round clash from last season could see Djokovic pick at the carcass in the next Round.
I think Djokovic will certainly hope it isn't Wawrinka who comes through after the latter gave him fits at the Australian and US Opens in 2013, but he might also be fortunate in facing a tired opponent by that point and take full advantage.
Fourth Quarter Prediction: Novak Djokovic has the most comfortable path to the Semi Final
Winner and Outright Picks
Out of all the potential winners of this tournament, Novak Djokovic has to be rubbing his hands together at the way the draw has panned out and I think it will take something special to stop him winning at Melbourne Park for the fourth time in a row and for his fifth time overall.
His path through to the Final means he will miss most of the real contenders for the title until the Final and he may be in a position to pick off someone who has come through a much harder part of the section. There is the alternative belief that the player coming out of the top half will at least be battle-hardened, but I think Djokovic has so much experience that he will be ready to go and coming through a couple of tough matches in the Quarter Final and Semi Final will aid him enough.
It's a little boring and 'in the box' to think that Rafael Nadal is going to be his most likely opponent, although the Spaniard has a couple of real obstacles to negotiate. Roger Federer and Andy Murray look vulnerable so I will back Novak Djokovic to win the event yet again, even at odds on.
The vulnerabilities of Murray and Federer that I highlighted above means I will also have a small interest in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to come through the second quarter of the draw and I will also back Tomas Berdych in the third quarter of the draw.
Women's Tournament
First Quarter
There is no doubt which player is going to be the favourite to win any tournament she enters this season and the Number 1 seed is rightly where Serena Williams finds herself going into the first Grand Slam tournament of the season. There is a real suggestion that Williams goal for the year is to win every Grand Slam title and exert her dominance over the women's game.
Williams can't have asked for a much better draw as her two main rivals are in the opposite half of the draw and her quarter looks like one that won't pose too many problems. Ana Ivanovic did win a title to open 2014, but I don't fancy her chances in a potential Fourth Round match, while Sam Stosur has consistently flattered to deceive at her home Grand Slam.
The likes of Roberta Vinci and Sara Errani don't have the power to really compete with someone like Williams and it looks a straight-forward task for the American to reach the Semi Final if I am being brutally honest.
First Quarter Prediction: Serena Williams, who else?
Second Quarter
The second quarter of the draw is actually much more competitive and should be more exciting to see which of the players can come through. The top seeded players are Na Li and Petra Kvitova but you can't rest on the likes of Angelique Kerber, Venus Williams and Ekaterina Makarova, although the latter two players meet in the First Round to thin the crowded section.
Other dangerous players in the section include Lucie Safarova, Elena Vesnina and Sabine Lisicki, but I expect the player out of the ones highlighted will come through to the Semi Final against Serena Williams.
Li, Kvitova and Kerber can all point to decent form to open 2014, as can Venus Williams, and it is a difficult section to really separate with all the tough matches to account for.
However, I think Kvitova is the player that may have the more comfortable early matches that can put her in a good position once she reaches the potential Fourth Round match against Kerber and the Quarter Final against whoever comes through. Na Li is the biggest threat through her seeding and she has the best head to head record against the players in this section as well as reaching the Final at Melbourne Park twice.
The Li-Kvitova potential Quarter Final could be a brilliant one for the neutrals, but there is going to be plenty of tennis to be played before we get to that point.
Second Quarter Prediction: Na Li to beat Petra Kvitova in three sets
Third Quarter
The third quarter of the women's draw is very much like the first in that there isn't a lot of players that you would look to if you wanted to find an alternative to Maria Sharapova winning the section.
Sharapova may be coming back from an injury that kept her out of the back end of 2013, but she looks head and shoulders above the players she is likely to meet with the biggest threat coming from the top half of the quarter in Jelena Jankovic.
However, even the Serb won't inspire confidence with her poor head to head record against Sharapova and Jankovic is also one of the weirdest players to get a read on. There are many times I have seen Jankovic lose matches to players she should beat comfortably so it is possible she won't even reach that potential Quarter Final and I think Sharapova comes through with relative comfort.
Third Quarter Prediction: Maria Sharapova
Fourth Quarter
The final quarter of the draw is where the two time defending Champion, Victoria Azarenka, has been placed and she will be fairly happy with the way the draw has landed for her.
However, I don't think it is as straight-forward as the one that Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova have to negotiate, especially with a tough Fourth Round match against Sloane Stephens perhaps on the cards for Azarenka.
That will be a rematch from the controversial Semi Final from last season if it comes to fruition, but Stephens has had an injury concern from the Hopman Cup and it wouldn't be a huge shock if the young American is knocked out before that potential rematch.
There are also enough doubts about what Agnieszka Radwanska can do at this tournament to think that she would be able to get the better of Azarenka who at least showed some form in Brisbane a couple of weeks ago. Azarenka has dominated the head to head between these two players too and she looks the favourite to come out of the section.
Winner and Outright Picks
I think most people are going to be backing Serena Williams to take home the title at Melbourne Park in this fortnight and you can understand the thinking behind that with the way she dominated in 2013. However, Williams only won 2 of the 4 Slams last year and is always liable to throw in one really poor match which makes her odds on quotes look a little too short.
Instead, I think a small interest in the two-time defending Champion, Victoria Azarenka, is worth having as someone who isn't afraid to take on Williams and seems to have the right mentality to at least make a match against her. Azarenka will also look to expose the nervousness of a player that hasn't won in Australia since 2010 and one who has suffered surprise losses in back to back years at Melbourne Park.
Both players have decent draws, although Azarenka faces the potentially tougher Semi Final if she meets Maria Sharapova, but that is another match the World Number 2 seems to enjoy and I think a unit on Azarenka is warranted.
MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Novak Djokovic @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (6 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Win Second Quarter @ 5.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tomas Berdych Win Third Quarter @ 2.75 Stan James (1 Unit)
Victoria Azarenka @ 6.50 Coral (1 Unit)
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