It has been a tough start to the week for a number of the seeds with a few dropping out and others struggling to get through the opening matches.
However, it is important they have made it through as both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray needed three sets to get through their first match here- at the end of the day, it is the players that struggle through one Round that can find their form later on and go on to win these big events.
On a personal level, it has been a very successful first few days of the tournaments as the picks have kept on ending up in the winner's enclosure and that has led to plenty of positive results to start the event. Yesterday, both picks came in and that has improved the overall weekly record to 11 winners from the first 13 picks.
However, it is not wise to get complacent or cocky and I just hope things continue in the manner they are.
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Jarkko Nieminen: Kevin Anderson earned a big Second Round win over David Ferrer and can take advantage of opening up this section by knocking out the highest seeded player.
He has a good match up against Jarkko Nieminen in this one having beaten him on all three previous occasions they have played. Nieminen got through the last Round thanks to an under-par performance from Fernando Verdasco who has been struggling with a neck injury that has seen him miss a few weeks on the Tour.
The difference between Anderson and Nieminen is clearly the serve, but the Finn does have a habit of throwing in a truly terrible service game in per set and I think that is where Anderson can take advantage. I do expect Anderson to have fewer problems holding serve and this match has all the makings of a 6-3, 7-6 win for the South African.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: It was a good first match back on the hard courts for Rafael Nadal as he saw off Ryan Harrison, and I think he can back that up with another win here as long as the knees haven't had an adverse reaction over the last couple of days.
The match up with Leonardo Mayer is a good one for Rafael Nadal who has beaten him twice in the last twelve months, both times fairly comfortably. Mayer's best performances have usually come on the clay courts too and I think this will be a really tough match for him.
Nadal is looking a little tentative on the court at the moment, mainly because I don't think he truly knows how he will react to the surface, but I do think he comes through with a double break in one of the sets and finishes with a 6-2, 6-4 win.
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Andreas Seppi: I am going to continue to ride the form that Ernests Gulbis has been showing over the last month and I think he will be a little too good for Andreas Seppi, although the Italian is also a far more solid player these days.
Gulbis has admitted he is a little tired with the amount of tennis he has been playing, but you would never have guessed that as he dismantled Janko Tipsarevic in the Second Round. The day off between matches is working for him here at Indian Wells and he has all the tools to see off Andreas Seppi as there just aren't too many weaknesses in the Gulbis game when he is on fire.
I do like the way Seppi has become a much more solid player these days, but the second serve remains a weakness and he was a little fortunate at times against Daniel Brands in the last Round. He will give Gulbis chances and I think the Latvian is in the form to take advantage of those at the moment.
I like Gulbis to come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win in this one.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: I was surprised that Jerzy Janowicz was looking as tired as he was at times in the last Round against David Nalbandian and I think he will be feeling the pressure in this match against Richard Gasquet.
While Janowicz has a monster of a serve, he can be vulnerable in long rallies and I think Gasquet certainly has the edge when it comes to the groundstrokes, particularly when it develops into those rallies concentrating on the backhand.
I think Gasquet is going to be able to exert some pressure on the Janowicz serve and will be able to look after his own more often than not to get himself into a position where a 6-3, 7-6 win could be on the cards.
Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Ivan Dodig: Roger Federer was imperious in his Second Round win over Denis Istomin and I think he will record a similar win over Ivan Dodig in this Third Round match.
Dodig is probably best known for beating Rafael Nadal at the Canada Masters a couple of years ago and certainly has a serve that can win him a lot of cheap points. However, he can be a bit predictable with that serve and I am expecting Roger Federer to get a read on it and force Dodig to beat him in rallies.
That will happen on occasion, but I would expect Federer to dominate the majority of those rallies and he was serving very effectively against Istomin to think he should be looking after that aspect of the match.
I am expecting Federer to find a double break in one of the sets and I think he comes through 6-4, 6-2 in this one.
MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-2, + 16.58 Units (25 Units Staked, + 66.32% Yield)
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Monday, 11 March 2013
Sunday, 10 March 2013
Tennis Picks Indian Wells 2013 (March 10th)
It was a very productive day for the picks yesterday as the tournament moves on to the Third Round. With Victoria Azarenka, Petra Kvitova, Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych all moving through, it also means the outright picks made at the start of the week are all currently intact too with Novak Djokovic playing his first match here later today.
Rafael Nadal's return was also interesting, although he did look a touch nervous and I think the big roadblock he could first face here is the in-form Ernests Gulbis as both of those players are on course for a Fourth Round showdown.
Speaking about Gulbis, it was interesting to hear the Latvian's thoughts on the top 100 as he basically suggested it was 'easy' to move back into those spots- Gulbis has so much talent and it will be interesting if he can put that together as he certainly should be much higher in the Rankings than his current position and his form over the last couple of weeks suggests he will be making that move.
That potential match with Rafael Nadal could be a treat.
Sam Querrey - 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: Ivo Karlovic is not the force of old these days and definitely offers more chances against his own serve and is perhaps a little fortunate to still be in the tournament having saved match point against Jack Sock in the First Round.
I think the pressure will increase a little more on the big-serving Croatian as he is unlikely to get too many looks at the Sam Querrey serve unless the latter is slightly off his game.
Querrey has opened up 2013 in decent nick and I expect him to win one set on a tie-break, but another with a single break of serve and that should lead him to the cover in this one.
Maria Kirilenko - 4.5 games v Mallory Burdette: Maria Kirilenko came through a more established American in the last Round and I think she will have a little too much experience and talent for Mallory Burdette in this one too.
Kirilenko looks like she is over the injury that saw her pull out in Doha and I think she'll be a little too consistent for Burdette. The American is only in her second season on the Tour and has done very well to come through qualifiers and then win a couple of matches in the main tournament, but none of the opponents she has beaten are as good as Kirilenko.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if Kirilenko comes through with a straight-forward 6-3, 6-4 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Sam Querrey - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Maria Kirilenko - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-2, + 12.58 Units (21 Units Staked, + 59.9% Yield)
Rafael Nadal's return was also interesting, although he did look a touch nervous and I think the big roadblock he could first face here is the in-form Ernests Gulbis as both of those players are on course for a Fourth Round showdown.
Speaking about Gulbis, it was interesting to hear the Latvian's thoughts on the top 100 as he basically suggested it was 'easy' to move back into those spots- Gulbis has so much talent and it will be interesting if he can put that together as he certainly should be much higher in the Rankings than his current position and his form over the last couple of weeks suggests he will be making that move.
That potential match with Rafael Nadal could be a treat.
Sam Querrey - 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: Ivo Karlovic is not the force of old these days and definitely offers more chances against his own serve and is perhaps a little fortunate to still be in the tournament having saved match point against Jack Sock in the First Round.
I think the pressure will increase a little more on the big-serving Croatian as he is unlikely to get too many looks at the Sam Querrey serve unless the latter is slightly off his game.
Querrey has opened up 2013 in decent nick and I expect him to win one set on a tie-break, but another with a single break of serve and that should lead him to the cover in this one.
Maria Kirilenko - 4.5 games v Mallory Burdette: Maria Kirilenko came through a more established American in the last Round and I think she will have a little too much experience and talent for Mallory Burdette in this one too.
Kirilenko looks like she is over the injury that saw her pull out in Doha and I think she'll be a little too consistent for Burdette. The American is only in her second season on the Tour and has done very well to come through qualifiers and then win a couple of matches in the main tournament, but none of the opponents she has beaten are as good as Kirilenko.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if Kirilenko comes through with a straight-forward 6-3, 6-4 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Sam Querrey - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Maria Kirilenko - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-2, + 12.58 Units (21 Units Staked, + 59.9% Yield)
Saturday, 9 March 2013
Tennis Picks Indian Wells 2013 (March 9th)
The tournament has moved on to the Second Round at Indian Wells and the big news today is this will be Rafael Nadal's return to the hard courts for the first time in just about twelve months. He doesn't face an easy opponent in Ryan Harrison and it will be interesting to see if the Spaniard is feeling up to the task mentally.
Nadal's return is what everyone will be watching and studying as finally the TV coverage begins of the ATP matches. There are some very interesting matches to watch as the likes of Nadal, Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych all open their tournaments and it should be the start of a good eight days of tennis.
The picks also proved successful yesterday so hopefully that will continue as the week progresses too.
Lleyton Hewitt v John Isner: Lleyton Hewitt is certainly not the player of old, but he has always been able to give these big-serving players plenty of problems as he enjoys the pace they provide and it allows him to use all of his counter-attacking nous.
Hewitt has a decent record against the big servers he has faced in his career, except for Ivo Karlovic anyway, and also holds a 3-1 head to head lead over John Isner. The American did win their last meeting back in July on the grass courts of Newport, but Isner has struggled with injury to open 2013 and hasn't looked at his best in recent weeks.
I have to pay respect to the fact that Isner did reach the Final here twelve months ago, but he has had some bad losses so far this season on a more favoured surface like the indoor hard courts, and I think Hewitt can cause a little surprise here.
However, I am just going to have a small interest in the match as Hewitt just doesn't play with the consistency that made him such a threat early in his career.
Andreas Seppi v Daniel Brands: Daniel Brands has been one of the surprise packages in the early part of 2013 and there are signs that he is finally putting his tennis together. He has been at the latter end of tournaments in Dubai and Doha, while already having 3 wins under his belt this week at Indian Wells by coming through qualifiers and then beating Marcos Baghdatis in the First Round.
However, I think Brands could be severely tested by Andreas Seppi, another player that has seemingly finally 'got it' when it comes to his performances on the court. Seppi's serve has always been a bit of a weakness, but he has proved a little more reliable at looking after that and I do think the Italian has the edge when it comes to the groundstroke rallies.
I am a little surprised that Seppi is being offered at the prices he is, although that says a lot about how Daniel Brands has been playing in the last couple of weeks. However, I do think Seppi will be too good on the day and record the win, possibly in three sets though.
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games v Madison Keys: Sam Stosur is a very inconsistent player these days and she is playing one of the rising stars of the WTA Tour in Madison Keys, but I think the Australian's experience will prove to be too much for her 18 year old opponent.
The Stosur serve should cause Keys plenty of problems because it is such a unique stroke on the WTA Tour and I think that will be enough to keep Stosur ahead of the curve against her opponent. I do think Keys has the game to be successful on the WTA Tour, but she is still raw and inconsistent with the big shots sometimes becoming a little wild.
I would expect Stosur to be good enough to come through in straight sets and the spread looks a game short to me personally.
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games v Sofia Arvidsson: Sofia Arvidsson has been beaten in both her previous matches against Julia Goerges and she has generally been found wanting when she meets some of the better players on the Tour on the hard courts.
It was a decent win over Laura Robson that has given Arvidsson a chance to play in the Second Round here, but I am expecting more from Julia Goerges in this one than the young Brit was able to offer.
Goerges hasn't made a real deep impact to open 2013 and has hit the wall a little from a couple of years ago when she made her breakthrough on the Tour. She has been inconsistent, but the German is capable and does match up well against Arvidsson and I do expect she will move through to the Third Round in a fairly routine straight sets win.
MY PICKS: Lleyton Hewitt @ 3.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Andreas Seppi @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-2, + 5.26 Units (14 Units Staked, + 37.6% Yield)
Nadal's return is what everyone will be watching and studying as finally the TV coverage begins of the ATP matches. There are some very interesting matches to watch as the likes of Nadal, Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych all open their tournaments and it should be the start of a good eight days of tennis.
The picks also proved successful yesterday so hopefully that will continue as the week progresses too.
Lleyton Hewitt v John Isner: Lleyton Hewitt is certainly not the player of old, but he has always been able to give these big-serving players plenty of problems as he enjoys the pace they provide and it allows him to use all of his counter-attacking nous.
Hewitt has a decent record against the big servers he has faced in his career, except for Ivo Karlovic anyway, and also holds a 3-1 head to head lead over John Isner. The American did win their last meeting back in July on the grass courts of Newport, but Isner has struggled with injury to open 2013 and hasn't looked at his best in recent weeks.
I have to pay respect to the fact that Isner did reach the Final here twelve months ago, but he has had some bad losses so far this season on a more favoured surface like the indoor hard courts, and I think Hewitt can cause a little surprise here.
However, I am just going to have a small interest in the match as Hewitt just doesn't play with the consistency that made him such a threat early in his career.
Andreas Seppi v Daniel Brands: Daniel Brands has been one of the surprise packages in the early part of 2013 and there are signs that he is finally putting his tennis together. He has been at the latter end of tournaments in Dubai and Doha, while already having 3 wins under his belt this week at Indian Wells by coming through qualifiers and then beating Marcos Baghdatis in the First Round.
However, I think Brands could be severely tested by Andreas Seppi, another player that has seemingly finally 'got it' when it comes to his performances on the court. Seppi's serve has always been a bit of a weakness, but he has proved a little more reliable at looking after that and I do think the Italian has the edge when it comes to the groundstroke rallies.
I am a little surprised that Seppi is being offered at the prices he is, although that says a lot about how Daniel Brands has been playing in the last couple of weeks. However, I do think Seppi will be too good on the day and record the win, possibly in three sets though.
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games v Madison Keys: Sam Stosur is a very inconsistent player these days and she is playing one of the rising stars of the WTA Tour in Madison Keys, but I think the Australian's experience will prove to be too much for her 18 year old opponent.
The Stosur serve should cause Keys plenty of problems because it is such a unique stroke on the WTA Tour and I think that will be enough to keep Stosur ahead of the curve against her opponent. I do think Keys has the game to be successful on the WTA Tour, but she is still raw and inconsistent with the big shots sometimes becoming a little wild.
I would expect Stosur to be good enough to come through in straight sets and the spread looks a game short to me personally.
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games v Sofia Arvidsson: Sofia Arvidsson has been beaten in both her previous matches against Julia Goerges and she has generally been found wanting when she meets some of the better players on the Tour on the hard courts.
It was a decent win over Laura Robson that has given Arvidsson a chance to play in the Second Round here, but I am expecting more from Julia Goerges in this one than the young Brit was able to offer.
Goerges hasn't made a real deep impact to open 2013 and has hit the wall a little from a couple of years ago when she made her breakthrough on the Tour. She has been inconsistent, but the German is capable and does match up well against Arvidsson and I do expect she will move through to the Third Round in a fairly routine straight sets win.
MY PICKS: Lleyton Hewitt @ 3.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Andreas Seppi @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-2, + 5.26 Units (14 Units Staked, + 37.6% Yield)
Weekend Football Picks (March 9-11)
Here comes another weekend of football and I can't wait for Sunday so Manchester United can help erase what has been one of the worst ways to lose a Champions League tie that I remember. I could have handled a defeat, but the manner of the loss is unacceptable and I just have struggled to enjoy any football since then.
Now is the time to 'move on' as Sir Alex put it in his weekly press conference and the manager is correct- this is a big chance for United to go on and win the Double, while the Premier League was always the number one priority this season. The FA Cup would be a nice bonus to add, especially considering it has been so long since United last won that trophy and beating Chelsea this weekend would mean the competition will surely come down to United v Manchester City, even though Everton could be a threat.
Everton v Wigan Athletic Pick: This FA Cup Sixth Round game sees Everton begin as the big favourites and I think that is reasonable as Roberto Martinez has been one to rotate his squad for the Cup competitions this season.
It would have been a difficult tie at the DW Stadium, but I do think Everton have a significant edge at Goodison Park and will find a way to get through and move into the Semi Final of the FA Cup for the second season in succession.
Everton don't get many clean sheets though and that could be something that gives Wigan Athletic some real confidence for the tie, but I don't think it is enough to have me believing there will be much of a shock in this one. I think Everton are likely 2-1 or 3-1 winners and dutching those scores together looks the best way to get involved in this game.
Manchester City v Barnsley Pick: This is another game where I think the home favourite will end up winning the game and I believe Manchester City will be fairly comfortable as they look to win this Cup for the second time in three seasons. City have already crushed two Championship teams so far in their run to the Sixth Round and I can see Barnsley ending up down the same road.
With a strong home team expected, I think City will likely come out very confident and should be able to create plenty of chances. They have a week before their next game and the FA Cup is arguably more important than League games with Manchester United running away with that and unlikely to slip up as they did last season.
The question for me is how many do City go on and win by and I believe they will get something similar to what they did to Leeds United in the last Round. Dutching 4-0 and 5-0 scorelines look reasonable with the way City have performed at home in recent weeks and I think the home side win in straightforward fashion.
Norwich City v Southampton Pick: I can understand why a lot of people think Norwich City are a good thing in this game because their most recent game at home produced a 2-1 win, but that is their only success in 11 games in the Premier League and a lack of goals has to be a worry.
Norwich are still in a position where they could be dragged into a relegation scrap and I think they have been struggling a little in recent weeks. On the other hand, Southampton have put in some good performances, but haven't been getting the results that their play perhaps deserved.
I will say that the Saints were poor in their home defeat to Queens Park Rangers last weekend, but they do have goals in the side and that could help them secure what would be a vital three points from this game. They have led at Wigan Athletic, Manchester United and Newcastle United in recent weeks, but not seen the job through in any of those games and only have the point from Wigan to show for their efforts.
However, I can see Southampton holding Norwich out if they take the lead in this one and I think the Saints have to be backed for a big three points.
Queens Park Rangers v Sunderland Pick: When a team has struggled to win as much as Queens Park Rangers have done in the Premier League this season, it is hard to back them with any kind of confidence. However, I do believe this is the kind of game they will win to give themselves a chance of survival in the top flight and Sunderland's recent away form suggests the home side will secure the three points.
The return of Loic Remy is big news for Harry Redknapp, particularly with his Rangers side having failed to score in 5 straight home games, but I think the Frenchman could make the difference for them in this game.
Sunderland are definitely not out of danger, but they have lost at Reading recently and they don't inspire me on their travels. To make matters more difficult for them, Sunderland are facing a Queens Park Rangers defence that has definitely been improved at Loftus Road.
It will be tight and tense in this part of West London on Saturday, but I have a feeling Queens Park Rangers sneak the win and give themselves real confidence of beating the drop.
Reading v Aston Villa Pick: I don't know who will win this game, although gun to my head would have me pointing to the away side.
While I don't know who wins, I will be totally surprised if we didn't see at least 3 goals in the game as both sides have been shocking defensively while also finding ways to score goals. Reading home games have featured a lot of goals in recent weeks, including that embarrassing 0-3 reverse against Wigan Athletic, while Aston Villa have seemingly been more comfortable away from Villa Park and are perhaps unfortunate not to have more wins under their belt.
My only concern against goals is that both managers will be extra cautious in what is a classic 'relegation six pointer', but I can't imagine either would be confident in relying on their defences and may just take the policy that 'attack is the best form of defence'.
There will certainly be goalscorers on the field and I'd be very surprised if this doesn't have goals in it and hopefully an early one gets the ball rolling on Saturday.
Barcelona v Deportivo La Coruna Pick: Barcelona are coming off back to back defeats against Real Madrid and you have to think they have been stewing all week. They will also want to build some confidence ahead of a big game against Milan in the Champions League as they bid to overturn a 2-0 first leg deficit back in the Nou Camp.
Despite the defeat to Real Madrid in the Cup here, Barcelona have remained dominant in the League at home and they continue to score a lot of goals here. That doesn't bode well for the bottom club in La Liga, especially as Deportivo La Coruna have been conceding a fair few goals in recent away games, including 6 at Atletico Madrid.
Deportivo also conceded 5 at home to Barcelona and it is tough to see them keeping this one close. I like Barcelona to score 4 at least in this one and I think that'll be enough to cover the large spread.
Millwall v Blackburn Rovers Pick: Neither one of these teams have been in anything like good form since booking their place in the Sixth Round of the FA Cup and that makes it difficult to figure out which of these sides makes it through to the Semi Final at Wembley Stadium.
Goals have been a problem for both teams, but I do believe Blackburn have the more 'natural' finishers, especially ever since Millwall lost Chris Wood in the January transfer window. That may make all the difference in this one as I can't imagine either defence going through the game without offering up at least a couple of chances to the attacking players.
I'd only have a small interest in Blackburn winning the game as they haven't been inspiring at all since beating Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium and that does reduce my enthusiasm for them winning this one.
Manchester United v Chelsea Pick: We all know what happened to Manchester United on Tuesday evening so I am not going back over old ground- however, I expect that result to inspire a performance from them in this one and I do think United will be too strong for Chelsea.
Chelsea have also come off a loss as they were beaten in Steaua Bucharest and the team are just not playing that well at the moment. I don't think they should be under-estimated, but Manchester United have been playing far better in recent weeks and look like a team with enough goals to find a way to come through the tie.
I expect Sir Alex is going to put out a very strong team in this one and I do think they can take advantage of some of the uncertainties in the Chelsea camp and will be the likely winners.
Newcastle United v Stoke City Pick: A long trip to Russia is not ideal just three days before a League game with Stoke City, but I do think Newcastle United have been in much better form of the two teams and pick up a vital three points to steer clear of any potential relegation troubles.
Stoke have been struggling to score goals away from home and Newcastle have looked much more comfortable since spending some money in the January transfer window and getting a few of their players back from injury problems.
This will be a tight contest, but I think Newcastle are able to handle the physical side of Stoke's play and the latter's poor away form will likely cost them another loss on their record. It will likely be tight for moments in the game, but eventually Newcastle United should have enough to take away the three points.
Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This game certainly has the potential for goals as both sides have been finding the net with some regularity in their recent games.
Liverpool have scored 17 goals in their last 6 games at Anfield, while Spurs have been one of the more successful away teams in the League as they can really hurt teams on the counter with the pace they have in the side.
I expect both will score at least once in the game and a 2-2 draw looks very possible... Chances should be fairly frequent and I wouldn't be surprised if both Luis Suarez and Gareth Bale are troubling the scorers again.
Liverpool's last 3 games have all featured at least 4 goals, while Spurs had a 2-3 win at West Ham United recently so I'll look for at least 4 goals in this one.
MY PICKS: Everton to win 2-1 or 3-1 @ 5.65 Coral (1 Unit)
Manchester City to win 4-0 or 5-0 @ 5.63 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Southampton @ 3.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Queens Park Rangers @ 2.30 William Hill (1 Unit)
Reading-Aston Villa Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Barcelona - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Blackburn Rovers @ 3.20 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Manchester United @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Newcastle United @ 1.85 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Liverpool-Tottenham Hotspur Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Now is the time to 'move on' as Sir Alex put it in his weekly press conference and the manager is correct- this is a big chance for United to go on and win the Double, while the Premier League was always the number one priority this season. The FA Cup would be a nice bonus to add, especially considering it has been so long since United last won that trophy and beating Chelsea this weekend would mean the competition will surely come down to United v Manchester City, even though Everton could be a threat.
Everton v Wigan Athletic Pick: This FA Cup Sixth Round game sees Everton begin as the big favourites and I think that is reasonable as Roberto Martinez has been one to rotate his squad for the Cup competitions this season.
It would have been a difficult tie at the DW Stadium, but I do think Everton have a significant edge at Goodison Park and will find a way to get through and move into the Semi Final of the FA Cup for the second season in succession.
Everton don't get many clean sheets though and that could be something that gives Wigan Athletic some real confidence for the tie, but I don't think it is enough to have me believing there will be much of a shock in this one. I think Everton are likely 2-1 or 3-1 winners and dutching those scores together looks the best way to get involved in this game.
Manchester City v Barnsley Pick: This is another game where I think the home favourite will end up winning the game and I believe Manchester City will be fairly comfortable as they look to win this Cup for the second time in three seasons. City have already crushed two Championship teams so far in their run to the Sixth Round and I can see Barnsley ending up down the same road.
With a strong home team expected, I think City will likely come out very confident and should be able to create plenty of chances. They have a week before their next game and the FA Cup is arguably more important than League games with Manchester United running away with that and unlikely to slip up as they did last season.
The question for me is how many do City go on and win by and I believe they will get something similar to what they did to Leeds United in the last Round. Dutching 4-0 and 5-0 scorelines look reasonable with the way City have performed at home in recent weeks and I think the home side win in straightforward fashion.
Norwich City v Southampton Pick: I can understand why a lot of people think Norwich City are a good thing in this game because their most recent game at home produced a 2-1 win, but that is their only success in 11 games in the Premier League and a lack of goals has to be a worry.
Norwich are still in a position where they could be dragged into a relegation scrap and I think they have been struggling a little in recent weeks. On the other hand, Southampton have put in some good performances, but haven't been getting the results that their play perhaps deserved.
I will say that the Saints were poor in their home defeat to Queens Park Rangers last weekend, but they do have goals in the side and that could help them secure what would be a vital three points from this game. They have led at Wigan Athletic, Manchester United and Newcastle United in recent weeks, but not seen the job through in any of those games and only have the point from Wigan to show for their efforts.
However, I can see Southampton holding Norwich out if they take the lead in this one and I think the Saints have to be backed for a big three points.
Queens Park Rangers v Sunderland Pick: When a team has struggled to win as much as Queens Park Rangers have done in the Premier League this season, it is hard to back them with any kind of confidence. However, I do believe this is the kind of game they will win to give themselves a chance of survival in the top flight and Sunderland's recent away form suggests the home side will secure the three points.
The return of Loic Remy is big news for Harry Redknapp, particularly with his Rangers side having failed to score in 5 straight home games, but I think the Frenchman could make the difference for them in this game.
Sunderland are definitely not out of danger, but they have lost at Reading recently and they don't inspire me on their travels. To make matters more difficult for them, Sunderland are facing a Queens Park Rangers defence that has definitely been improved at Loftus Road.
It will be tight and tense in this part of West London on Saturday, but I have a feeling Queens Park Rangers sneak the win and give themselves real confidence of beating the drop.
Reading v Aston Villa Pick: I don't know who will win this game, although gun to my head would have me pointing to the away side.
While I don't know who wins, I will be totally surprised if we didn't see at least 3 goals in the game as both sides have been shocking defensively while also finding ways to score goals. Reading home games have featured a lot of goals in recent weeks, including that embarrassing 0-3 reverse against Wigan Athletic, while Aston Villa have seemingly been more comfortable away from Villa Park and are perhaps unfortunate not to have more wins under their belt.
My only concern against goals is that both managers will be extra cautious in what is a classic 'relegation six pointer', but I can't imagine either would be confident in relying on their defences and may just take the policy that 'attack is the best form of defence'.
There will certainly be goalscorers on the field and I'd be very surprised if this doesn't have goals in it and hopefully an early one gets the ball rolling on Saturday.
Barcelona v Deportivo La Coruna Pick: Barcelona are coming off back to back defeats against Real Madrid and you have to think they have been stewing all week. They will also want to build some confidence ahead of a big game against Milan in the Champions League as they bid to overturn a 2-0 first leg deficit back in the Nou Camp.
Despite the defeat to Real Madrid in the Cup here, Barcelona have remained dominant in the League at home and they continue to score a lot of goals here. That doesn't bode well for the bottom club in La Liga, especially as Deportivo La Coruna have been conceding a fair few goals in recent away games, including 6 at Atletico Madrid.
Deportivo also conceded 5 at home to Barcelona and it is tough to see them keeping this one close. I like Barcelona to score 4 at least in this one and I think that'll be enough to cover the large spread.
Millwall v Blackburn Rovers Pick: Neither one of these teams have been in anything like good form since booking their place in the Sixth Round of the FA Cup and that makes it difficult to figure out which of these sides makes it through to the Semi Final at Wembley Stadium.
Goals have been a problem for both teams, but I do believe Blackburn have the more 'natural' finishers, especially ever since Millwall lost Chris Wood in the January transfer window. That may make all the difference in this one as I can't imagine either defence going through the game without offering up at least a couple of chances to the attacking players.
I'd only have a small interest in Blackburn winning the game as they haven't been inspiring at all since beating Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium and that does reduce my enthusiasm for them winning this one.
Manchester United v Chelsea Pick: We all know what happened to Manchester United on Tuesday evening so I am not going back over old ground- however, I expect that result to inspire a performance from them in this one and I do think United will be too strong for Chelsea.
Chelsea have also come off a loss as they were beaten in Steaua Bucharest and the team are just not playing that well at the moment. I don't think they should be under-estimated, but Manchester United have been playing far better in recent weeks and look like a team with enough goals to find a way to come through the tie.
I expect Sir Alex is going to put out a very strong team in this one and I do think they can take advantage of some of the uncertainties in the Chelsea camp and will be the likely winners.
Newcastle United v Stoke City Pick: A long trip to Russia is not ideal just three days before a League game with Stoke City, but I do think Newcastle United have been in much better form of the two teams and pick up a vital three points to steer clear of any potential relegation troubles.
Stoke have been struggling to score goals away from home and Newcastle have looked much more comfortable since spending some money in the January transfer window and getting a few of their players back from injury problems.
This will be a tight contest, but I think Newcastle are able to handle the physical side of Stoke's play and the latter's poor away form will likely cost them another loss on their record. It will likely be tight for moments in the game, but eventually Newcastle United should have enough to take away the three points.
Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This game certainly has the potential for goals as both sides have been finding the net with some regularity in their recent games.
Liverpool have scored 17 goals in their last 6 games at Anfield, while Spurs have been one of the more successful away teams in the League as they can really hurt teams on the counter with the pace they have in the side.
I expect both will score at least once in the game and a 2-2 draw looks very possible... Chances should be fairly frequent and I wouldn't be surprised if both Luis Suarez and Gareth Bale are troubling the scorers again.
Liverpool's last 3 games have all featured at least 4 goals, while Spurs had a 2-3 win at West Ham United recently so I'll look for at least 4 goals in this one.
MY PICKS: Everton to win 2-1 or 3-1 @ 5.65 Coral (1 Unit)
Manchester City to win 4-0 or 5-0 @ 5.63 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Southampton @ 3.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Queens Park Rangers @ 2.30 William Hill (1 Unit)
Reading-Aston Villa Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Barcelona - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Blackburn Rovers @ 3.20 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Manchester United @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Newcastle United @ 1.85 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Liverpool-Tottenham Hotspur Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Friday, 8 March 2013
Tennis Picks Indian Wells 2013 (March 8th)
The live TV coverage from the WTA side of the tournament at Indian Wells will begin today, while the ATP event will begin tomorrow. I still don't quite understand why these Masters events are rarely covered in the First Round considering the day and age when even Challenger events can be seen from the early stages.
It was a good start for the picks as both of the ones made yesterday came in fairly comfortably. Hopefully that will be the beginning of a solid ten days at Indian Wells before both Tours move on to Miami.
Dmitry Tursunov - 2.5 games v Philipp Petzschner: It has been something of a revival of form for Dmitry Tursunov over the last couple of weeks as he made a Semi Final in Marseille and also made the Quarter Final in Dubai to see his Ranking improve and push him back into the top 100. Tursunov has a big game, but he has been very inconsistent, although he should be full of confidence coming into this one with a couple of qualifying wins under his belt.
His opponent can be very good at times, but Philipp Petzschner is coming off a tough season last year and has also had a couple of injury problems to open 2013. The German also came through qualifying this week, but I think it will be tough for him against a confident player like Tursunov.
It will be close, but I do think Tursunov will come through and I think this spread should be covered with a straight sets win for the Russian.
Alejandro Falla - 3.5 games v Bjorn Phau: Neither one of these players have been in any semblance of form in recent weeks, but Bjorn Phau is coming off a knee injury and has struggled.
I think Alejandro Falla will likely be a little too strong for Phau and I think he does hold the edge when it comes to holding serve and I do think the Colombian will be able to come through with a straight sets win.
The pick is more against Phau than it is having a lot of confidence in Falla, but the court should be slow enough to keep Falla comfortable and he should be too good.
Bobby Reynolds v Benjamin Becker: Bobby Reynolds has come through qualifiers and I think he can win this pick 'em match against Benjamin Becker who I just don't think cuts it too often on the Main Tour.
Reynolds beat Becker in qualifying for the Toronto Masters back in August and I think the fact he has a couple of wins under his belt here already should give him the advantage in the match. My biggest concern would be that Reynolds hasn't had a lot of wins on the Main Tour in the last twelve months, even though he has come through qualifiers for a few tournaments.
However, this is just about one of the better draws the American could have received in the First Round and I think he'll have enough belief that he can win this match as he has won the two previous matches against Becker.
Fabio Fognini v Aljaz Bedene: This is another pick 'em contest and one where I think the slight favourite, Fabio Fognini, can find a way past an opponent he beat last week, albeit on a clay court.
The problem Fognini has always had is whether he can stay in a match from a mental point of view- too many times he lapses and his play fluctuates wildly within matches. A lot of that can be down to his concentration, while not having the biggest serve means the Italian will have to earn almost all the points he wins.
I am actually a little surprised that Fognini is as high as 36 in the World Rankings, and the next month or so gives him a great chance to improve that with a couple of decent tournaments. The close win over Aljaz Bedene last week in Acapulco will certainly give Fognini a bit more confidence about this match, although he shouldn't take Bedene lightly.
Bedene is beginning to become a feature of playing on the Main Tour after his successes on the Challenger circuit last season and he has reached a Semi Final on the hard courts this season. However, I still think he is finding his feet somewhat and a player like Fognini can make him play one too many balls and that could be the difference.
Michael Llodra - 2.5 games v Daniel Munoz-De La Nava: I think Daniel Munoz-De La Nava is probably being over-rated a little after a good tournament at Delray Beach last week and after qualifying here, but I think the Spaniard may find himself under some pressure from Michael Llodra's serve and volley game.
The courts are slightly slower at Indian Wells and that will give Munoz-De La Nava a chance to get a read on the serve, but the 30 year old Spaniard hasn't enjoyed too much success on the hard courts in his career. This is only his fifth ever match on the Main Tour that has taken place on a hard court and I like Michael Llodra's chances in the match.
Llodra should be able to exert enough pressure behind his serve and should be able to come through the match. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 7-6, 6-3 win for the Frenchman in this one.
MY PICKS: Dmitry Tursunov - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alejandro Falla - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Bobby Reynolds @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Michael Llodra - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 3.66 Units (4 Units Staked, + 91.5% Yield)
It was a good start for the picks as both of the ones made yesterday came in fairly comfortably. Hopefully that will be the beginning of a solid ten days at Indian Wells before both Tours move on to Miami.
Dmitry Tursunov - 2.5 games v Philipp Petzschner: It has been something of a revival of form for Dmitry Tursunov over the last couple of weeks as he made a Semi Final in Marseille and also made the Quarter Final in Dubai to see his Ranking improve and push him back into the top 100. Tursunov has a big game, but he has been very inconsistent, although he should be full of confidence coming into this one with a couple of qualifying wins under his belt.
His opponent can be very good at times, but Philipp Petzschner is coming off a tough season last year and has also had a couple of injury problems to open 2013. The German also came through qualifying this week, but I think it will be tough for him against a confident player like Tursunov.
It will be close, but I do think Tursunov will come through and I think this spread should be covered with a straight sets win for the Russian.
Alejandro Falla - 3.5 games v Bjorn Phau: Neither one of these players have been in any semblance of form in recent weeks, but Bjorn Phau is coming off a knee injury and has struggled.
I think Alejandro Falla will likely be a little too strong for Phau and I think he does hold the edge when it comes to holding serve and I do think the Colombian will be able to come through with a straight sets win.
The pick is more against Phau than it is having a lot of confidence in Falla, but the court should be slow enough to keep Falla comfortable and he should be too good.
Bobby Reynolds v Benjamin Becker: Bobby Reynolds has come through qualifiers and I think he can win this pick 'em match against Benjamin Becker who I just don't think cuts it too often on the Main Tour.
Reynolds beat Becker in qualifying for the Toronto Masters back in August and I think the fact he has a couple of wins under his belt here already should give him the advantage in the match. My biggest concern would be that Reynolds hasn't had a lot of wins on the Main Tour in the last twelve months, even though he has come through qualifiers for a few tournaments.
However, this is just about one of the better draws the American could have received in the First Round and I think he'll have enough belief that he can win this match as he has won the two previous matches against Becker.
Fabio Fognini v Aljaz Bedene: This is another pick 'em contest and one where I think the slight favourite, Fabio Fognini, can find a way past an opponent he beat last week, albeit on a clay court.
The problem Fognini has always had is whether he can stay in a match from a mental point of view- too many times he lapses and his play fluctuates wildly within matches. A lot of that can be down to his concentration, while not having the biggest serve means the Italian will have to earn almost all the points he wins.
I am actually a little surprised that Fognini is as high as 36 in the World Rankings, and the next month or so gives him a great chance to improve that with a couple of decent tournaments. The close win over Aljaz Bedene last week in Acapulco will certainly give Fognini a bit more confidence about this match, although he shouldn't take Bedene lightly.
Bedene is beginning to become a feature of playing on the Main Tour after his successes on the Challenger circuit last season and he has reached a Semi Final on the hard courts this season. However, I still think he is finding his feet somewhat and a player like Fognini can make him play one too many balls and that could be the difference.
Michael Llodra - 2.5 games v Daniel Munoz-De La Nava: I think Daniel Munoz-De La Nava is probably being over-rated a little after a good tournament at Delray Beach last week and after qualifying here, but I think the Spaniard may find himself under some pressure from Michael Llodra's serve and volley game.
The courts are slightly slower at Indian Wells and that will give Munoz-De La Nava a chance to get a read on the serve, but the 30 year old Spaniard hasn't enjoyed too much success on the hard courts in his career. This is only his fifth ever match on the Main Tour that has taken place on a hard court and I like Michael Llodra's chances in the match.
Llodra should be able to exert enough pressure behind his serve and should be able to come through the match. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 7-6, 6-3 win for the Frenchman in this one.
MY PICKS: Dmitry Tursunov - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alejandro Falla - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Bobby Reynolds @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Michael Llodra - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 3.66 Units (4 Units Staked, + 91.5% Yield)
Thursday, 7 March 2013
Tennis Picks Indian Wells 2013 (March 7th)
It has been a few days since the last tennis tournaments were completed and the start of the main tournament at Indian Wells, but finally the First Round of the Masters begins and the First Round of the WTA event are completed.
My outright picks of the week can be found here
There may be quite a few matches taking place today, but these are the few picks that I like the best:
Ernests Gulbis - 2 games v Feliciano Lopez: Ernests Gulbis has showed plenty of form and ability over the last three weeks and I do think he will be good enough to beat Feliciano Lopez as long as all the tennis hasn't caught up with the Latvian.
He came through qualifiers to win the tournament at Delray Beach last week and that wasn't enough to get him a Wildcard into Indian Wells so he has come through a couple of qualifiers here too. While that proves the focus is still there for Gulbis, I think it is a lot of tennis being played by someone who might not be used to making the business end of tournaments and winning a lot of matches in a short period of time.
Confidence has to be high though, and that could be enough for him to see of Feliciano Lopez who is almost certainly on the way down the Rankings. Lopez did reach the Semi Final in Memphis recently, but the slower conditions in Indian Wells should favour his opponent and I think Gulbis will continue the fine form he has shown.
Ryan Harrison - 2.5 games v Go Soeda: While the first pick is a player in fine form, the second is one that is trying to find his feet after a disappointing start to the 2013 season. Many thought Ryan Harrison could make a real breakthrough on the Tour this season, but he has struggled over the last month or so with First Round exits in San Jose, Memphis and Delray Beach.
It isn't just the early exits that would be a concern, but the fact that Harrison lost to players he should be beating and Go Soeda will fall into that category.
Soeda has also made an early exit in tournaments over the last month or so since winning a Challenger event in Hawaii, but he is generally found wanting at this level. On normal form, Harrison would likely win this one by the same straights sets he did in their only previous match at Winston Salem back in August.
However, I'll take him to cover the games here in what could be a closer match than anticipated but one the American will find a way to get through.
MY PICKS: Ernests Gulbis - 2 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
My outright picks of the week can be found here
There may be quite a few matches taking place today, but these are the few picks that I like the best:
Ernests Gulbis - 2 games v Feliciano Lopez: Ernests Gulbis has showed plenty of form and ability over the last three weeks and I do think he will be good enough to beat Feliciano Lopez as long as all the tennis hasn't caught up with the Latvian.
He came through qualifiers to win the tournament at Delray Beach last week and that wasn't enough to get him a Wildcard into Indian Wells so he has come through a couple of qualifiers here too. While that proves the focus is still there for Gulbis, I think it is a lot of tennis being played by someone who might not be used to making the business end of tournaments and winning a lot of matches in a short period of time.
Confidence has to be high though, and that could be enough for him to see of Feliciano Lopez who is almost certainly on the way down the Rankings. Lopez did reach the Semi Final in Memphis recently, but the slower conditions in Indian Wells should favour his opponent and I think Gulbis will continue the fine form he has shown.
Ryan Harrison - 2.5 games v Go Soeda: While the first pick is a player in fine form, the second is one that is trying to find his feet after a disappointing start to the 2013 season. Many thought Ryan Harrison could make a real breakthrough on the Tour this season, but he has struggled over the last month or so with First Round exits in San Jose, Memphis and Delray Beach.
It isn't just the early exits that would be a concern, but the fact that Harrison lost to players he should be beating and Go Soeda will fall into that category.
Soeda has also made an early exit in tournaments over the last month or so since winning a Challenger event in Hawaii, but he is generally found wanting at this level. On normal form, Harrison would likely win this one by the same straights sets he did in their only previous match at Winston Salem back in August.
However, I'll take him to cover the games here in what could be a closer match than anticipated but one the American will find a way to get through.
MY PICKS: Ernests Gulbis - 2 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Wednesday, 6 March 2013
Tennis Outright Picks Indian Wells 2013 (March 6-17)
The first thought I had at the end of last week was 'he's back'... Rafael Nadal played some wonderful tennis in the last couple of matches against Nicolas Almagro and in particular against David Ferrer as he proved that he is feeling healthy and will find his best tennis in time to defend his title at the French Open.
It was great news that Nadal also decided to head to Indian Wells for the first Masters of the season considering many thought he would take a month off and only return when the Tour moves on to the European clay court season. However, it was great to hear Nadal talking about joining the Tour as it moves through a couple of hard court tournaments in the United States.
That doesn't mean I am expecting big things from Nadal immediately as this is the first tournament he will enter alongside the absolute cream of the Men's game. It is a positive sign that Nadal feels his knee is in a position to compete on the hard courts, but I'd be surprised if he gets beyond the Quarter Final regardless of the draw as he will likely have to play one of the top three that he has faced throughout his career at the business end of Grand Slams.
I'll be interested to see how Nadal feels after a couple of matches on the hard courts, but he did play an exhibition on the surface in a losing effort against Juan Martin Del Potro and I think we will see the Spaniard get back to something close to his best by the time the French Open comes around.
Novak Djokovic, Sara Errani and Ernests Gulbis were other key winners of events in the past week and the one that disappointed me the most was the last of those as I had tipped him to come through the qualifiers and possibly go all the way, but the layers hadn't put any prices up for the outright markets.
Other than the disappointment around Gulbis, it was a pretty standard week last time out after the positive results from the previous three weeks. David Ferrer was my one outright pick and his challenge was dismissed in the Final by Rafael Nadal, while the daily picks provided the smallest of profits. Overall, it was a slight loss on the week, but nothing major to be concerned about.
WTA Indian Wells
While this is one of the premier events on the WTA Tour, it is one that will not be featuring Serena Williams or Venus Williams as Indian Wells remains a tournament they choose to by-pass after some issues they had there a few seasons ago.
That leaves Victoria Azarenka as the absolute favourite to win the tournament and that really is not surprising considering her form to open 2013 and her general success over the last 14 months.
Azarenka did miss out a couple of weeks ago in Dubai as she was recovering from her exploits in Doha and I do think she will be in good shape to defend her title from a year ago. The draw has been very kind to her early on and I would think she can get through to any Quarter Final without too many problems.
One potential player that could have upset the apple-cart on some recent showings is Caroline Wozniacki but she had a poor loss last week and there are some rumours that she is having a few personal problems in her relationship with Rory McIlroy. If she isn't focused, then Victoria Azarenka should be a Semi Finalist without too many problems.
No doubt there are some big names that could face the World Number 2 in the Semi Final with the likes of Angelique Kerber, Sam Stosur, Mona Barthel and Ana Ivanovic as potential opponents, but none of those are playing at the level of Azarenka right now.
With the way the draw has panned out, there is every chance we could see a repeat of the Final of twelve months ago as Maria Sharapova is the Number 2 seed her in the absence of Serena Williams. Sharapova really couldn't have asked for a much better route to the Semi Final with a number of the potential opponents she can play in her section not really having the power to trouble the Russian consistently.
One player that may give Sharapova problems is Mona Barthel, but she has too often shown inconsistent form to get through matches when she isn't playing at her best and there is every chance the German won't get through to any potential Quarter Final.
However, I think the biggest danger to a repeat Final from last season is the in-form Petra Kvitova who won the tournament in Dubai where she showed the form that had a lot of people believing she was the player most likely to kick on in the Women's game.
Kvitova also pushed Serena Williams all the way in Doha and I think she will be able to grab another win over Agnieszka Radwanska in the Quarter Final and become the player most likely to meet Sharapova in the Semi Final.
The problem for the Women's game at the moment is that there aren't too many players that are showing the form to suggest they can win the big tournaments and the absence of Serena Williams has also skewed the tournament slightly.
Victoria Azarenka is main beneficiary as she seems to have a clear path through to the Final to retain her title and I think she is worth backing in the outright market. The World Number 2 and Number 1 seed here will be my main pick for the tournament, but I also think there is a good reason to take Petra Kvitova on the each-way markets to make it to the Final from the bottom half.
Kvitova has been playing some excellent tennis over the last three weeks and has finally showed the form that everyone knows she can reach. She doesn't have the best head to head against Maria Sharapova, losing the last 3 matches they have contested against one another, but Kvitova has certainly shown enough in the last month to think she can break that little run.
ATP Indian Wells Masters
It is the first time since Wimbledon that the 'big four' players are all in action at the same tournament and the first thing to notice is that Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have been scheduled to meet in the Quarter Final.
That could be important news for Andy Murray as he has a chance to move into the World Number 2 Ranking if he wins this tournament and Federer fails to make the Final. However, he has been placed in the same half of the draw as Novak Djokovic and it will be tough for the British player to make it past an in-form World Number 1.
The top half of the draw has a number of big name players that can be very dangerous as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Juan Martin Del Potro, Milos Raonic and Marin Cilic certainly capable of pushing the big names at the very least. However, I would suggest that both Djokovic and Murray will be too good, although I couldn't fully trust the latter after some poor performances in these early Masters tournaments over the last couple of seasons.
The bottom half of the draw is highlighted by the potential Quarter Final between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, but both will need to put a couple of big wins in place to get there. Federer could get the chance to avenge his loss in Rotterdam as he could potentially face Julien Benneteau and the dangerous John Isner before the Quarter Finals.
Obviously the biggest fight Nadal has on his hands is getting through the tournament without any new issues with his knee. The likes of Janko Tipsarevic have been a little out of form, while Mikhail Youzhny is not the player of old that used to trouble Nadal so much. With that in mind, the Spaniard does have the easier path to the Quarter Finals, but doubts about his ability to complete a hard court tournament would put off some backers.
The other side of the bottom half has the in-form Tomas Berdych and he will be looking to reach his third Final in a row, although he did fall short in Marseille and Dubai. The Czech player was in good form at those events, but I am a little concerned that he hasn't shown his best at Indian Wells in the past.
Berdych should get through his early matches without too many issues, but potential matches against Richard Gasquet and David Ferrer will be incredibly tough matches to negotiate. Ferrer in particularly has been a match up nightmare for Berdych on all surfaces, but the Spaniard has only ever reached one Quarter Final in the past here and may find the change from clay courts to the hard courts a little tough to negotiate.
A potential clash with Kevin Anderson in the Second Round could be tough for Ferrer and may just open the door for Berdych to make a run.
The problem for the Men's game at the moment is that there hasn't been too many winners of the top events outside of the usual suspects and that means the prices are skewed to the top four players. It says quite a lot about the Men's tournaments that someone as good as Juan Martin Del Potro has failed to ever win a Masters tournament.
Novak Djokovic looks really short in the market considering the presence of Andy Murray in the section, but the draw looks a good one for him and Murray has been an early loser at this event the last couple of seasons. Djokovic has won 2 of the last 5 tournaments in Indian Wells and he was unlucky to lose in the Semi Final last season and I do think he is worth keeping on-side here considering his start to the 2013 season.
Another couple of players worth backing here are Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych from the bottom half of the draw and I'll have an interest in them each-way. The latter has been in good form and looks like he has been rewarded with a nice draw, while I still think Roger Federer is going to be too strong for an undercooked Rafael Nadal.
Federer is the defending Champion here and has won the event four times, while he is also missing Miami so can focus fully on this tournament. It's not the easiest draw, but I think he showed enough in Dubai to think he can at least get to the Semi Final here and that would make him a dangerous prospect here.
Berdych is in as good form as anyone not called Novak Djokovic and he did reach the Final at the Miami Masters in 2010 to suggest he can put in enough solid performances to possibly reach the Final. David Ferrer's presence is a concern, especially with his record against Berdych, but he has struggled at Indian Wells in the past so the Czech player is another I'll keep on my side this week.
MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka @ 2.50 Blue Square (4 Units)
Petra Kvitova @ 10.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit E/W)
Novak Djokovic @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (4 Units)
Roger Federer @ 6.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit E/W)
Tomas Berdych @ 23.00 Stan James (0.5 Units E/W)
Daily Picks: 11-11-1, + 0.60 Units (44 Units Staked, 1.36% Yield)
Outright Picks: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)
Season 2013: + 36.07 Units (294 Units Staked, + 12.27% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
It was great news that Nadal also decided to head to Indian Wells for the first Masters of the season considering many thought he would take a month off and only return when the Tour moves on to the European clay court season. However, it was great to hear Nadal talking about joining the Tour as it moves through a couple of hard court tournaments in the United States.
That doesn't mean I am expecting big things from Nadal immediately as this is the first tournament he will enter alongside the absolute cream of the Men's game. It is a positive sign that Nadal feels his knee is in a position to compete on the hard courts, but I'd be surprised if he gets beyond the Quarter Final regardless of the draw as he will likely have to play one of the top three that he has faced throughout his career at the business end of Grand Slams.
I'll be interested to see how Nadal feels after a couple of matches on the hard courts, but he did play an exhibition on the surface in a losing effort against Juan Martin Del Potro and I think we will see the Spaniard get back to something close to his best by the time the French Open comes around.
Novak Djokovic, Sara Errani and Ernests Gulbis were other key winners of events in the past week and the one that disappointed me the most was the last of those as I had tipped him to come through the qualifiers and possibly go all the way, but the layers hadn't put any prices up for the outright markets.
Other than the disappointment around Gulbis, it was a pretty standard week last time out after the positive results from the previous three weeks. David Ferrer was my one outright pick and his challenge was dismissed in the Final by Rafael Nadal, while the daily picks provided the smallest of profits. Overall, it was a slight loss on the week, but nothing major to be concerned about.
WTA Indian Wells
While this is one of the premier events on the WTA Tour, it is one that will not be featuring Serena Williams or Venus Williams as Indian Wells remains a tournament they choose to by-pass after some issues they had there a few seasons ago.
That leaves Victoria Azarenka as the absolute favourite to win the tournament and that really is not surprising considering her form to open 2013 and her general success over the last 14 months.
Azarenka did miss out a couple of weeks ago in Dubai as she was recovering from her exploits in Doha and I do think she will be in good shape to defend her title from a year ago. The draw has been very kind to her early on and I would think she can get through to any Quarter Final without too many problems.
One potential player that could have upset the apple-cart on some recent showings is Caroline Wozniacki but she had a poor loss last week and there are some rumours that she is having a few personal problems in her relationship with Rory McIlroy. If she isn't focused, then Victoria Azarenka should be a Semi Finalist without too many problems.
No doubt there are some big names that could face the World Number 2 in the Semi Final with the likes of Angelique Kerber, Sam Stosur, Mona Barthel and Ana Ivanovic as potential opponents, but none of those are playing at the level of Azarenka right now.
With the way the draw has panned out, there is every chance we could see a repeat of the Final of twelve months ago as Maria Sharapova is the Number 2 seed her in the absence of Serena Williams. Sharapova really couldn't have asked for a much better route to the Semi Final with a number of the potential opponents she can play in her section not really having the power to trouble the Russian consistently.
One player that may give Sharapova problems is Mona Barthel, but she has too often shown inconsistent form to get through matches when she isn't playing at her best and there is every chance the German won't get through to any potential Quarter Final.
However, I think the biggest danger to a repeat Final from last season is the in-form Petra Kvitova who won the tournament in Dubai where she showed the form that had a lot of people believing she was the player most likely to kick on in the Women's game.
Kvitova also pushed Serena Williams all the way in Doha and I think she will be able to grab another win over Agnieszka Radwanska in the Quarter Final and become the player most likely to meet Sharapova in the Semi Final.
The problem for the Women's game at the moment is that there aren't too many players that are showing the form to suggest they can win the big tournaments and the absence of Serena Williams has also skewed the tournament slightly.
Victoria Azarenka is main beneficiary as she seems to have a clear path through to the Final to retain her title and I think she is worth backing in the outright market. The World Number 2 and Number 1 seed here will be my main pick for the tournament, but I also think there is a good reason to take Petra Kvitova on the each-way markets to make it to the Final from the bottom half.
Kvitova has been playing some excellent tennis over the last three weeks and has finally showed the form that everyone knows she can reach. She doesn't have the best head to head against Maria Sharapova, losing the last 3 matches they have contested against one another, but Kvitova has certainly shown enough in the last month to think she can break that little run.
ATP Indian Wells Masters
It is the first time since Wimbledon that the 'big four' players are all in action at the same tournament and the first thing to notice is that Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have been scheduled to meet in the Quarter Final.
That could be important news for Andy Murray as he has a chance to move into the World Number 2 Ranking if he wins this tournament and Federer fails to make the Final. However, he has been placed in the same half of the draw as Novak Djokovic and it will be tough for the British player to make it past an in-form World Number 1.
The top half of the draw has a number of big name players that can be very dangerous as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Juan Martin Del Potro, Milos Raonic and Marin Cilic certainly capable of pushing the big names at the very least. However, I would suggest that both Djokovic and Murray will be too good, although I couldn't fully trust the latter after some poor performances in these early Masters tournaments over the last couple of seasons.
The bottom half of the draw is highlighted by the potential Quarter Final between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, but both will need to put a couple of big wins in place to get there. Federer could get the chance to avenge his loss in Rotterdam as he could potentially face Julien Benneteau and the dangerous John Isner before the Quarter Finals.
Obviously the biggest fight Nadal has on his hands is getting through the tournament without any new issues with his knee. The likes of Janko Tipsarevic have been a little out of form, while Mikhail Youzhny is not the player of old that used to trouble Nadal so much. With that in mind, the Spaniard does have the easier path to the Quarter Finals, but doubts about his ability to complete a hard court tournament would put off some backers.
The other side of the bottom half has the in-form Tomas Berdych and he will be looking to reach his third Final in a row, although he did fall short in Marseille and Dubai. The Czech player was in good form at those events, but I am a little concerned that he hasn't shown his best at Indian Wells in the past.
Berdych should get through his early matches without too many issues, but potential matches against Richard Gasquet and David Ferrer will be incredibly tough matches to negotiate. Ferrer in particularly has been a match up nightmare for Berdych on all surfaces, but the Spaniard has only ever reached one Quarter Final in the past here and may find the change from clay courts to the hard courts a little tough to negotiate.
A potential clash with Kevin Anderson in the Second Round could be tough for Ferrer and may just open the door for Berdych to make a run.
The problem for the Men's game at the moment is that there hasn't been too many winners of the top events outside of the usual suspects and that means the prices are skewed to the top four players. It says quite a lot about the Men's tournaments that someone as good as Juan Martin Del Potro has failed to ever win a Masters tournament.
Novak Djokovic looks really short in the market considering the presence of Andy Murray in the section, but the draw looks a good one for him and Murray has been an early loser at this event the last couple of seasons. Djokovic has won 2 of the last 5 tournaments in Indian Wells and he was unlucky to lose in the Semi Final last season and I do think he is worth keeping on-side here considering his start to the 2013 season.
Another couple of players worth backing here are Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych from the bottom half of the draw and I'll have an interest in them each-way. The latter has been in good form and looks like he has been rewarded with a nice draw, while I still think Roger Federer is going to be too strong for an undercooked Rafael Nadal.
Federer is the defending Champion here and has won the event four times, while he is also missing Miami so can focus fully on this tournament. It's not the easiest draw, but I think he showed enough in Dubai to think he can at least get to the Semi Final here and that would make him a dangerous prospect here.
Berdych is in as good form as anyone not called Novak Djokovic and he did reach the Final at the Miami Masters in 2010 to suggest he can put in enough solid performances to possibly reach the Final. David Ferrer's presence is a concern, especially with his record against Berdych, but he has struggled at Indian Wells in the past so the Czech player is another I'll keep on my side this week.
MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka @ 2.50 Blue Square (4 Units)
Petra Kvitova @ 10.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit E/W)
Novak Djokovic @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (4 Units)
Roger Federer @ 6.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit E/W)
Tomas Berdych @ 23.00 Stan James (0.5 Units E/W)
Daily Picks: 11-11-1, + 0.60 Units (44 Units Staked, 1.36% Yield)
Outright Picks: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)
Season 2013: + 36.07 Units (294 Units Staked, + 12.27% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
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