I thought Friday was going to produce a ridiculous losing pick after Roberto Bautista Agut managed to go from 7-5, 5-0 all the way to 7-5, 6-7... Fortunately he regathered his thoughts in time for the third set which he dominated to eventually come through against Victor Troicki, but it is a shame he wasted unnecessary energy when having the match firmly in control in the middle of the second set.
That means there is a chance to finish off this week in a positive manner ahead of the US Open beginning on Monday as both Finals in New Haven and Winston Salem are played on Saturday.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: This has been a strong week for both of these Spanish players, although perhaps it is more surprising coming from Pablo Carreno Busta. Prior to the tournament in Winston Salem, Carreno Busta has not shown a lot of consistency on the hard courts although his wins have not exactly been against the elite of the Tour.
Aside from the victory over Pablo Cuevas, Carreno Busta would likely have felt comfortable in the other matches he has had. I am surprised he went in as the underdog against John Millman, but I think that also says a lot about where the layers are expecting his hard court abilities to be.
This is the most difficult match he would have faced this week as Roberto Bautista Agut comes in with plenty of wins and confidence behind him through 2016. He has needed three sets in three of his four matches to reach this Final, but Bautista Agut looked confident and holds the mental edge with three wins from four previous matches against Carreno Busta.
They did play an incredibly tight match at the US Open last year, but I think Bautista Agut can battle to another title in 2016 behind a relatively straight forward 64, 64 win this time around.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-6, - 1.64 Units (24 Units Staked, - 6.83% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Winston Salem Open. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Winston Salem Open. Show all posts
Saturday, 27 August 2016
Friday, 26 August 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (August 26th)
Yesterday was a frustrating day with the fifty-fifty games seemingly going against me through the three losing picks.
Richard Gasquet was twice a break up in the first set and served for it before falling apart against John Millman... Petra Kvitova won the first set 6-3 against Ekaterina Makarova but almost every game in the first set when to deuce and that gave her the confidence to breeze through the second set... While the most frustrating by far was Fernando Verdasco who had a break advantage twice in the final set but was broken at 40-15 in one consolidation game and 40-30 in the other before handing the match away with SEVEN Double Faults in his last two service games.
Frustrating to say the least, but things could always be worse.
Friday is the Semi Final day in New Haven and Winston Salem but I will admit I have not been overly keen on the matches aside from wanting to back against Victor Troicki again who looked out on his feet on Thursday before being handed a way back.
Friday is also important for the US Open draw and I will begin making picks from the First Round matches on Saturday when the full markets are released. The Qualifiers will all be entered into the draw by Saturday morning for us in the United Kingdom and all the markets for the First Round should be released with the Schedule of Play for Monday likely to be out by Sunday.
I am actually out at a wedding this Sunday so the picks might not be posted until Monday morning, but I will be working on them this weekend.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Victor Troicki: I bet Victor Troicki got into the locker room on Thursday and wondered how on earth he was handed a way back into his Quarter Final match with Fernando Verdasco? Let's face some facts, Troicki didn't win that match, Verdasco lost it and I don't think the Serb will be given too many gifts from the second Spaniard he faces in a row in Roberto Bautista Agut.
Of course there is a different match up in play for Troicki who was being put under tremendous pressure by the firepower that Verdasco clearly still has. However the consistency wasn't there and he can't rely on a host of unforced errors again, while Bautista Agut will look to make as many balls back as possible to start putting Troicki into difficult situations.
The Quarter Final was the best performance of the week from Bautista Agut, although he is going to have to work hard to protect his serve and that does give Troicki his chance. However the Spaniard has an underrated first serve and the consistency on the ground makes him a slightly weaker version of David Ferrer in his prime.
I don't think Bautista Agut will reach the levels Ferrer did, but he can frustrate Troicki who looked to be on the ropes on Thursday. It is tough playing the last match one day to the first the next and the differing conditions can take time to get used to, but Bautista Agut will be a little more familiar having gone on court second on Thursday.
They met in the Sofia Final earlier in the season and it was a fairly standard win for Bautista Agut and I am looking for him to make it two in a row against Troicki. As long as Bautista Agut can protect the serve as he has managed to do for much of the week, I think he will get his chances on the Troicki serve and can win this one 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-6, - 3.64 Units (22 Units Staked, - 16.55% Yield)
Richard Gasquet was twice a break up in the first set and served for it before falling apart against John Millman... Petra Kvitova won the first set 6-3 against Ekaterina Makarova but almost every game in the first set when to deuce and that gave her the confidence to breeze through the second set... While the most frustrating by far was Fernando Verdasco who had a break advantage twice in the final set but was broken at 40-15 in one consolidation game and 40-30 in the other before handing the match away with SEVEN Double Faults in his last two service games.
Frustrating to say the least, but things could always be worse.
Friday is the Semi Final day in New Haven and Winston Salem but I will admit I have not been overly keen on the matches aside from wanting to back against Victor Troicki again who looked out on his feet on Thursday before being handed a way back.
Friday is also important for the US Open draw and I will begin making picks from the First Round matches on Saturday when the full markets are released. The Qualifiers will all be entered into the draw by Saturday morning for us in the United Kingdom and all the markets for the First Round should be released with the Schedule of Play for Monday likely to be out by Sunday.
I am actually out at a wedding this Sunday so the picks might not be posted until Monday morning, but I will be working on them this weekend.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Victor Troicki: I bet Victor Troicki got into the locker room on Thursday and wondered how on earth he was handed a way back into his Quarter Final match with Fernando Verdasco? Let's face some facts, Troicki didn't win that match, Verdasco lost it and I don't think the Serb will be given too many gifts from the second Spaniard he faces in a row in Roberto Bautista Agut.
Of course there is a different match up in play for Troicki who was being put under tremendous pressure by the firepower that Verdasco clearly still has. However the consistency wasn't there and he can't rely on a host of unforced errors again, while Bautista Agut will look to make as many balls back as possible to start putting Troicki into difficult situations.
The Quarter Final was the best performance of the week from Bautista Agut, although he is going to have to work hard to protect his serve and that does give Troicki his chance. However the Spaniard has an underrated first serve and the consistency on the ground makes him a slightly weaker version of David Ferrer in his prime.
I don't think Bautista Agut will reach the levels Ferrer did, but he can frustrate Troicki who looked to be on the ropes on Thursday. It is tough playing the last match one day to the first the next and the differing conditions can take time to get used to, but Bautista Agut will be a little more familiar having gone on court second on Thursday.
They met in the Sofia Final earlier in the season and it was a fairly standard win for Bautista Agut and I am looking for him to make it two in a row against Troicki. As long as Bautista Agut can protect the serve as he has managed to do for much of the week, I think he will get his chances on the Troicki serve and can win this one 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-6, - 3.64 Units (22 Units Staked, - 16.55% Yield)
Tuesday, 23 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 23rd
As I said earlier this week when posting my outright picks, I will not be playing tennis picks every day as the US Open will be beginning next Monday and I am quite happy with the bank we have been building since the French Open.
However, I do trawl through the tennis matches every day to see if I can find an edge and try and make a little bit more profit.
Ryan Harrison and James Blake both moved into the 2nd Round with wins over Victor Hanescu and Mikhail Kukushkin respectively, but they fact tough opponents tonight. If both win, that will mean my outright picks go against one another in the next Round, but that was the hope when the picks were made.
On to the Picks:
Dmitry Tursunov - 3.5 games vs Steve Darcis: I can't help feeling that Tursunov has been underestimated a touch in this match and I actually expected him to be a much stronger favourite.
The Russian has move back up to Number 44 in the World following an injury ravaged 2010, and his big serve and groundstrokes should be ideal for the faster North American surfaces. In saying that, his progress up the rankings has not been as rapid simply because he remains a little inconsistent.
Steve Darcis, on the other hand, played his first hard court match of the Summer when beating Federico Gil in the 1st Round and this is an altogether different test.
In fact, Darcis' win in the 1st Round was his first match on a hard court at main tour level this year, and he has played just 6 matches in Challenger events on the surface too.
Last year he didn't even bother playing in a hard court match during this swing and I think Tursunov should be far too strong for him, winning 6-3, 6-4 as he did in their only previous meeting back in 2005.
Andrey Golubev vs Sergiy Stakhovsky: This is very much a pick against Stakhovsky who should not be a big favourite over anyone considering he has lost 4 of his last 5 matches, while Golubev has at least won a Round here and should have a better feel for the conditions.
Golubev has been awful on the main tour events in the last few months, but he picked up a win over Stanislas Wawrinka last week and must feel he can beat an opponent that has been struggling as much as Stakhovsky.
Golubev has won their only previous meeting, and I will pick him to come through here.
MY PICKS: Dmitry Tursunov - 3.5 games @ 1.99 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andrey Golubev @ 2.48 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
However, I do trawl through the tennis matches every day to see if I can find an edge and try and make a little bit more profit.
Ryan Harrison and James Blake both moved into the 2nd Round with wins over Victor Hanescu and Mikhail Kukushkin respectively, but they fact tough opponents tonight. If both win, that will mean my outright picks go against one another in the next Round, but that was the hope when the picks were made.
On to the Picks:
Dmitry Tursunov - 3.5 games vs Steve Darcis: I can't help feeling that Tursunov has been underestimated a touch in this match and I actually expected him to be a much stronger favourite.
The Russian has move back up to Number 44 in the World following an injury ravaged 2010, and his big serve and groundstrokes should be ideal for the faster North American surfaces. In saying that, his progress up the rankings has not been as rapid simply because he remains a little inconsistent.
Steve Darcis, on the other hand, played his first hard court match of the Summer when beating Federico Gil in the 1st Round and this is an altogether different test.
In fact, Darcis' win in the 1st Round was his first match on a hard court at main tour level this year, and he has played just 6 matches in Challenger events on the surface too.
Last year he didn't even bother playing in a hard court match during this swing and I think Tursunov should be far too strong for him, winning 6-3, 6-4 as he did in their only previous meeting back in 2005.
Andrey Golubev vs Sergiy Stakhovsky: This is very much a pick against Stakhovsky who should not be a big favourite over anyone considering he has lost 4 of his last 5 matches, while Golubev has at least won a Round here and should have a better feel for the conditions.
Golubev has been awful on the main tour events in the last few months, but he picked up a win over Stanislas Wawrinka last week and must feel he can beat an opponent that has been struggling as much as Stakhovsky.
Golubev has won their only previous meeting, and I will pick him to come through here.
MY PICKS: Dmitry Tursunov - 3.5 games @ 1.99 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andrey Golubev @ 2.48 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Sunday, 21 August 2011
Tennis Outright Picks August 22nd-28th
My final profit/loss update from last week will be updated as soon as the Andy Murray-Novak Djokovic match is completed in Cincinnati, but in the meantime I will have a look at next weeks draw in the last tournaments before the US Open.
This can be a little difficult to predict which players will take these last tournaments seriously, especially with 2 weeks of tough tennis ahead of them at Flushing Meadows, so I will look for any outsiders that may be more interested in this tournament knowing they are unlikely to have a real impact in New York.
ATP Winston Salem Open
The Number 1 seed, and favourite to win this event is Andy Roddick, a player that clearly needs the matches under his belt following a long lay off and an early exit in Cincinnati.
The American's run through to the Semi Final does not look to have too many obstacles in front of it, although I am concerned he could pull out after a couple of wins, either withdrawing or not putting in the required effort to win a match. My reason for that is Roddick will want to be at his freshest going into the US Open which will begin the day after this event finishes, and I cannot imagine he wants to be involved in all the tennis required to win this tournament.
A real potential threat in the bottom half of Roddick's section is John Isner, who actually beat Roddick at the US Open two years ago. Isner has played a lot of tennis this Summer, reaching a Final in Atlanta and Semi Final in Washington, but I also have a few doubts whether he will want to put himself through a gruelling week before a Grand Slam where he must feel he can have an impact.
Players like Marcos Baghdatis and Dmitry Tursunov will feel they may just be able to take advantage if the likes of Roddick and Isner fall out of this section, but both have their own issues and cannot really be backed with any confidence, even at big double figure prices.
Baghdatis has just employed Miles Maclagen, Andy Murray's former coach, but it will take some time before their styles mesh, while Tursunov has failed to really make an impact over the Summer.
The other half of the draw has the same problems with seeded players like Nikolay Davydenko and Jurgen Melzer not to be trusted on current form while others like Kevin Anderson and Alexandr Dolgopolov look too short in the market.
My interest, therefore, in this tournament will instead come in the form of one young player, and one old player.
Both of my picks are American, but I would recommend keeping stakes very small- the first is Ryan Harrison, the other is James Blake.
Ryan Harrison has been in decent nick during the American hard court Summer swing, reaching the Semi Final in both Atlanta and Los Angeles, while being beaten by Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati is not exactly a disgrace.
Harrison has a tough looking match with Kevin Anderson in Round 2 if he progresses, but I think he could cause enough troubles to beat the big serving South African, especially if his serve is not on top form as it was against Andy Murray in Toronto.
He may then be forced into a big match with James Blake in the 3rd Round and I think the winner of that will have a decent chance of going all the way.
Blake has been looking like he is getting back to something like his best, although he is still inconsistent. However, he has won a few Challengers in recent months and it is clear he is trying his best to get back up the Rankings.
The veteran will have a tough 2nd Round match with Robin Haase, but a win in will leave us with a potential match between himself and Harrison.
It's a tough tournament to second guess players, so keep stakes to a minimum.
Prices for the two WTA Events in Texas and New Haven have not been released, I'll check prices when they are released (likely tomorrow at this rate) and will tweet any outrights I have from that market.
MY PICKS: Ryan Harrison @ 26.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
James Blake @ 26.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
This can be a little difficult to predict which players will take these last tournaments seriously, especially with 2 weeks of tough tennis ahead of them at Flushing Meadows, so I will look for any outsiders that may be more interested in this tournament knowing they are unlikely to have a real impact in New York.
ATP Winston Salem Open
The Number 1 seed, and favourite to win this event is Andy Roddick, a player that clearly needs the matches under his belt following a long lay off and an early exit in Cincinnati.
The American's run through to the Semi Final does not look to have too many obstacles in front of it, although I am concerned he could pull out after a couple of wins, either withdrawing or not putting in the required effort to win a match. My reason for that is Roddick will want to be at his freshest going into the US Open which will begin the day after this event finishes, and I cannot imagine he wants to be involved in all the tennis required to win this tournament.
A real potential threat in the bottom half of Roddick's section is John Isner, who actually beat Roddick at the US Open two years ago. Isner has played a lot of tennis this Summer, reaching a Final in Atlanta and Semi Final in Washington, but I also have a few doubts whether he will want to put himself through a gruelling week before a Grand Slam where he must feel he can have an impact.
Players like Marcos Baghdatis and Dmitry Tursunov will feel they may just be able to take advantage if the likes of Roddick and Isner fall out of this section, but both have their own issues and cannot really be backed with any confidence, even at big double figure prices.
Baghdatis has just employed Miles Maclagen, Andy Murray's former coach, but it will take some time before their styles mesh, while Tursunov has failed to really make an impact over the Summer.
The other half of the draw has the same problems with seeded players like Nikolay Davydenko and Jurgen Melzer not to be trusted on current form while others like Kevin Anderson and Alexandr Dolgopolov look too short in the market.
My interest, therefore, in this tournament will instead come in the form of one young player, and one old player.
Both of my picks are American, but I would recommend keeping stakes very small- the first is Ryan Harrison, the other is James Blake.
Ryan Harrison has been in decent nick during the American hard court Summer swing, reaching the Semi Final in both Atlanta and Los Angeles, while being beaten by Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati is not exactly a disgrace.
Harrison has a tough looking match with Kevin Anderson in Round 2 if he progresses, but I think he could cause enough troubles to beat the big serving South African, especially if his serve is not on top form as it was against Andy Murray in Toronto.
He may then be forced into a big match with James Blake in the 3rd Round and I think the winner of that will have a decent chance of going all the way.
Blake has been looking like he is getting back to something like his best, although he is still inconsistent. However, he has won a few Challengers in recent months and it is clear he is trying his best to get back up the Rankings.
The veteran will have a tough 2nd Round match with Robin Haase, but a win in will leave us with a potential match between himself and Harrison.
It's a tough tournament to second guess players, so keep stakes to a minimum.
Prices for the two WTA Events in Texas and New Haven have not been released, I'll check prices when they are released (likely tomorrow at this rate) and will tweet any outrights I have from that market.
MY PICKS: Ryan Harrison @ 26.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
James Blake @ 26.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
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