NFL Week 14 Picks 2014 (December 4-8)

Week 13 Thoughts

Miami Dolphins showing character: Getting into the Play Offs in the tough AFC was always going to be difficult for the Miami Dolphins who aren't quite good enough to keep tabs with the New England Patriots in the AFC East. That means the Wild Card spots were about as good as it could be for the Dolphins this season and they are currently occupying one of those spots.

It could have been all so different on Monday Night Football as Miami escaped with a win from the road game at the New York Jets, but I am looking at the positives from that one.

There is no doubt that Miami would have lost that game in recent years and you only have to go back twelve months to see how far the Dolphins have come. With destiny in their own hands, Miami were embarrassed by the Jets and the Buffalo Bills in back to back weeks to fall out of Play Off contention and it looked like they were going to suffer another devastating loss on Monday Night.

However, they did enough to win that game, with some luck going their way, and now Miami have a huge game in Week 14 when they host the Baltimore Ravens. If they can win that game, the Dolphins will be in a very strong position with three weeks remaining of the regular season and would be favourites to make the Play Offs, but a loss to the Ravens may be too much to overcome.

To win, Miami still need to get more out of Ryan Tannehill down the field, where he has been at his poorest so far this season, and take advantage of the Baltimore Secondary. Being at home is key and there is now some excitement that the Dolphins could be in with a chance of making the Play Offs for the first time since 2008.

Can Drew Stanton do enough to help the Arizona Cardinals into the Play Offs? I mentioned last week that I don't think the Arizona Cardinals will make the Play Offs with Drew Stanton and that was at a time when I thought they would beat the Atlanta Falcons.

Stanton has made mistakes, missed Receivers and the Cardinals are now in a position where the Wild Card spots look their most likely avenue to the Play Offs.

With Seattle improving, it isn't too far-fetched to think the Seahawks sweep Arizona and that will give them the tie-breaker in the Division, while teams like Philadelphia/Dallas, Detroit and San Francisco remain in the Wild Card race.

There will need to be a huge improvement from Stanton if Arizona are going to win another couple of games that will lead them to the Play Offs. This week is a huge game for them against the Kansas City Chiefs, for both teams in actual fact, and the loser of that might be out of the Play Offs I would feel.

Should the Cleveland Browns have made the change at Quarter Back? On Wednesday it was announced that Mike Pettine was going to stick with Brian Hoyer as Quarter Back over Johnny Manziel which has sparked a debate as to whether it was the right decision.

Most seem to agree with the choice, but I don't think I can count myself as one of those people.

Let's preface this with this- I am not a Manziel fan, never have been a Manziel fan and wouldn't care less if he is a First Round bust... However, he did spark Cleveland last week in their loss to Buffalo and Hoyer has been regressing over the last month and I am not sure the Browns need to see what they have in Manziel for a full game.

I don't believe Cleveland will be paying Hoyer the big bucks in the off-season so it makes no sense to me for them to persist with him, especially as he hasn't been playing that well. The argument is that he has led the team to a 7-5 record and in the Play Off hunt, but the Browns have been fortunate to win a couple of games over the past few weeks that had almost nothing to do with Hoyer and I think Manziel was the player that the others could rally towards.

I'll take it all back if Hoyer leads the Browns to a 3-1 record down the stretch that may bring a Play Off spot, but I wouldn't be overly surprised if the discussion about the starting Quarter Back is resumed next week.

Green Bay versus New England would make for a good Super Bowl: It was a fascinating game that was much closer on the scoreboard than it perhaps should have been, but both the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots would make for a good Super Bowl if they get the chance to have their rematch there in a couple of months time.

There are plenty of obstacles for both teams to pass if they are to get to Arizona, but both are in a position to finish with the best record in their respective Conferences and there aren't too many teams that will fancy their chances of winning on the road against either.

Aaron Rodgers has played so well at Lambeau Field over the last couple of years, while beating Tom Brady and the Patriots in Foxboro in January is not something I would task to too many teams in the AFC.

Play Off Prediction: AFC- New England, Denver, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Miami, Kansas City

NFC- Green Bay, Philadelphia, Seattle, New Orleans, Detroit, Dallas

Top Ten

1) Green Bay Packers (9-3): They were Number 2 last week and deserve to move up with their win over the previous Number 1.

2) New England Patriots (9-3): Still the team to beat in the AFC and remain favourites to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

3) Denver Broncos (9-3): Peyton Manning and the Denver Offense have gotten it done very differently by running the ball very effectively over the last two weeks.

4) Philadelphia Eagles (9-3): A big win on the road in Dallas, but next two weeks will determine all you need to know about the Philadelphia Eagles.

5) Seattle Seahawks (8-4): Beating Arizona at home was impressive, but dominating the San Francisco 49ers on the road had signs of Seattle being back to their best.

6) Detroit Lions (8-4): The Lions dominated Chicago on Thanksgiving Day and that Defense can take them very far.

7) Indianapolis Colts (8-4): Still don't believe that Defense is going to help the Colts move past too many Play Off rounds.

8) Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1): Three consecutive road wins is impressive, but Cincinnati were very fortunate to beat Tampa Bay last week and I just don't trust this team.

9) Dallas Cowboys (8-4): The Cowboys have dropped a fair amount for me because that performance against Philadelphia was so, so disappointing and now they have to prove they are capable of winning big games in December.

10) Miami Dolphins (7-5): They have beaten New England, had an 11 point lead over Denver going into the Fourth Quarter, and were seconds from beating Green Bay and Detroit. All teams that I have in the top six and Miami won a huge game over the Jets that they would have previously lost.

Bottom Five

32) Oakland Raiders (1-11): Losing by 52 points is just plain embarrassing for a once proud franchise.

31) Tennessee Titans (2-10): This is just not a very good team and one that needs something of a real rebuild.

30) New York Jets (2-10): Rex Ryan was inconsolable with the way that the New York Jets blew the game against the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football.

29) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10): Bad teams find a way to lose as Lovie Smith says, and Tampa Bay found another way to lose last week.

28) New York Giants (3-9): How do you lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars after being up so big? Tom Coughlin must be just about ready to walk away from this job.

Week 14 Picks

Some really poor picks and some really bad luck contributed to a disappointing Week 13 and the first time I have had back to back losing weeks in the NFL this season. Unfortunately the last two weeks have had a huge hit on the season total and I will be looking to stop the bleeding in Week 14.

Picks on San Francisco, Pittsburgh and Arizona were very quickly recognised as ones that were not going to be successful.

Then there were the ones on Cleveland and Cincinnati where both teams had their opportunity to cover but killed themselves with critical turnovers.

Baltimore and Chicago both had big leads in their games but inexplicably fell apart and it all added up to some bad picks with bad luck in Week 14.

Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears Pick: Both teams are coming off heavy Thanksgiving Day beatdowns, but that also means both have had plenty of time to try and right the ship ahead of this one. The Dallas Cowboys have to avoid looking ahead to the rematch with the Philadelphia Eagles after being blown out by their Divisional rivals at home, while the Chicago Bears are basically out of Play Off contention after blowing a big lead against the Detroit Lions on the road before being blown out too.

The public are pounding Dallas as the road favourite in this one, but I want to go against them in this game and take the home underdog, a spot that has been favourable. That isn't saying much about the Chicago Bears who have been a poor underdog over the last three years so this game could all depend on whether Jay Cutler has come to play.

Alshon Jeffrey sounds like he will be limited at best, but Brandon Marshall and Martellus Bennett give Cutler some real weapons to exploit a Dallas Defense that is perhaps playing down to the expectations many had in pre-season. With Matt Forte capable of being a decent safety blanket out of the backfield, Cutler should be able to move the chains, while Forte should also have a strong game rushing the ball.

On the other hand, Tony Romo can't ask for a better game to bounce back from a pretty poor performance on Thanksgiving Day as the Bears Secondary has been beset by injuries. The Offensive Line might not have had the best day in protection of Romo, but the Quarter Back should have success handing the ball to DeMarco Murray who can rip off big gains behind this Line.

Both teams should be able to put up points, but I am surprised that the Bears are being given more than a Field Goal start in the game. Dallas have not been a great favourite to back and the Cowboys are 0-3 against the spread over the last three seasons when trying to recover from a Divisional loss.

It is a must win game for Dallas so I expect them to be focused, but Chicago can make this competitive and the points look too tempting to ignore. However, the Bears have been so bad in recent weeks that I can't go over the minimum unit for this one.


It has been a very busy couple of days so I won't have full analysis behind the picks, although they are shown below.

MY PICKS: Chicago Bears + 4 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 3 Points @ 1.95 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Washington Redskins + 3 Points @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 8 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 3 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 3 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 10.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 10 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 2.5 Points @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 8 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers - 13 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Week 13: 4-7, - 6.36 Units
Week 12: 3-6, - 4.36 Units
Week 11: 5-4, + 1.20 Units
Week 10: 4-2, + 3.90 Units
Week 9: 4-3, + 1.42 Units
Week 8: 1-8, - 13 Units
Week 7: 8-1, + 11.20 Units
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 54-53-2, + 0.54 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Week 14 Picks 2013 (December 5-9)

After a couple of pretty terrible breaks in the Thanksgiving Day games, I was a little wary of the rest of the Week 13 action and just a touch concerned that I could have one of the worst weeks of the season so far. Thankfully, the picks on Sunday went my way for the most part and that keeps the season ticking along nicely as we get set for the final four weeks of the regular season.

There are still a lot of Play Off implications to be resolved in the coming weeks, but things may become a little clearer all around after Week 14 is completed. This is also the final week of the regular season for most Fantasy Football players and I have been fortunate enough to make the Play Offs in two of my three pools, while I can make the final pool as long as I win this week, although a loss would see my opponent take my spot in the final four.

Week 13 Thoughts

Mike Tomlin's sideline mistake: I am a big fan of Mike Tomlin, but there is no way that he didn't know exactly what he was doing in the final Thanksgiving Day game against the Baltimore Ravens.

Jacoby Jones was returning a kick back for what looked like a Touchdown and Tomlin was standing at the edge of the field, only to move at the last second while viewing the play going down on the jumbotron. The move at the last second also meant Jones broke his stride just a touch and also moved towards the middle of the field, a move that allowed him to be tackled around 30 yards short of the end zone.

It proved to be a big tackle when it came down to the spread for the game as Baltimore essentially left four points on the field and the Steelers secured a back door cover despite losing the game. The NFL isn't foolish enough to think that no one is gambling on their games and they had to do something to show that they won't tolerate this, while Tomlin admitted that he had to accept the fine to ensure the 'integrity' of the NFL is kept intact.

A $100,000 fine for the Head Coach won't keep the guys in the Sportsbook happy, but the NFL had to show they can't accept these things to happen on the field and at least will keep people coming back to the counters in the coming weeks.

AFC Wild Card Race going to the wire: I read in a few places this week that the New York Jets and the Pittsburgh Steelers are in desperation mode after losing last week, but the final AFC Wild Card spot is still very open and I don't think either team is dead in the water just yet.

OK, I take that back- the New York Jets are not going anywhere with that atrocious Offense, but the Steelers have every chance to get back in contention by beating the Miami Dolphins this week.

Out of the teams chasing the Play Offs, I still think the Steelers have the best schedule to steal (pardon the pun) the final Wild Card spot ahead of the Ravens and the Dolphins, so I really believe their demise has been overstated by the media.

As I said at the beginning of the post, a lot of the Play Off implications could become clearer this week and a Miami win would put the Steelers away in my opinion... But if Pittsburgh win, the race for the Number 6 seed is still very much alive between a number of teams.

All NFC roads to the Super Bowl will go through Seattle: A couple of weeks ago, I made my opinion clear that the New Orleans Saints won't have enough to go into Seattle and beat the Seahawks in the Play Offs.

I was then unsurprised to see Seattle knock off New Orleans on Monday Night Football and effectively wrap up the Number 1 seed in the NFC as they have the tie-breaker over both New Orleans and Carolina and are also far too ahead of the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West.

Any team going into Seattle are going to find it very difficult to beat this Seahawks team, although I have called the two potential Wild Card teams (Carolina and San Francisco) as the two teams that have the best shot to do that.

I would expect both to wrap up Number 5 and Number 6 in the NFC, although Seattle are probably hoping Carolina can surpass New Orleans in the NFC South to hold off that potential game.

San Francisco have the Defense and an Offense that is getting healthier to cause problems for Seattle, although they have lost on their last 2 visits to that Stadium, while Carolina's Defense is another that could cause problems.

However, Seattle are hard to back against now to reach the big game in New York in February with home field advantage almost secured and I think Seahawks fans will be quietly confident of their chances as long as no major injuries affect them down the stretch.

My Play Off teams: These are only my predictions and there weren't too many results in Week 13 that actually changed my opinion from last week.

AFC: 1) Denver, 2) New England, 3) Cincinnati, 4) Indianapolis, 5) Kansas City, 6) Pittsburgh

NFC: 1) Seattle, 2) New Orleans, 3) Philadelphia, 4) Detroit, 5) Carolina, 6) San Francisco

Top Ten

1) Seattle Seahawks (11-1): Beat down of New Orleans and sowing up home field pretty much makes Seattle number 1.

2) Denver Broncos (10-2): Still in control of finishing with the Number 1 seed in the AFC after wrapping up AFC West.

3) New England Patriots (9-3): Escaped with the win in Houston, but Patriots are looking stronger in each passing week, although Defense is a concern.

4) New Orleans Saints (9-3): Dropped three positions from last week, but I still think they finish with Number 2 seed in NFC.

5) Carolina Panthers (9-3): Big game in the Superdome this week and a chance to move to the top of the NFC South and the Number 2 seed.

6) San Francisco 49ers (8-4): Offense getting healthier and Defense improved with Aldon Smith getting back to his best- big game against Seattle this week though.

7) Cincinnati Bengals (8-4): Likely going to win the AFC North, but a game to decide seeding place this week against the Colts.

8) Kansas City Chiefs (9-3): Dropped three straight and Defense banged up- Kansas City are fortunate to have the 9 wins in their bank.

9) Philadelphia Eagles (7-5): Important win over Arizona last week to prove they are for real, but another big test against the Lions this week.

10) Detroit Lions (7-5): Detroit's win over Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving Day may prove too much for the Packers and Chicago Bears to overcome.

Bottom Five

32) Houston Texans (2-10): Showed life in their loss to New England, but still came up short and have lost 10 straight games.

31) Washington Redskins (3-9): I thought Washington were going to beat the Giants last week with the way they played in the first half, but they couldn't put them away and have lost another game.

30) Atlanta Falcons (3-9): A win for Atlanta last week, but fortune smiled on them with Buffalo fumbling the games away.

29) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9): I didn't think Jacksonville would win one game, let alone three, and they deserve to move up the Rankings if not quite out of the bottom five.

28) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9): Tampa Bay played badly last week, but I was torn between them and Minnesota for this final place and I wouldn't be surprised if they are out of this section again next week.

Week 14 Picks

Thanksgiving Day was tough with Oakland kicking a field goal to cover in a game they were trailing by 10 points with 35 seconds left- it was the right decision, but I've seen too many Head Coaches screw that moment up to be happy. It only was compounded later by the Mike Tomlin incident and the back door cover from Pittsburgh.

However, Sunday was a much better day for the picks and that has kept the season totals moving in the right direction. Last season, it was between Week 12 and Week 16 that things got a little out of sync for me, so I have been glad to come through the first two of those weeks in a decent position for the season, With a little care and attention, hopefully the last four weeks of the season will go the same way.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: This could be a game that ends up deciding which of these teams picks up the Number 1 pick in the NFL Draft next year, but that doesn't mean it is one that will appeal to those tuning in for Thursday Night Football this week.

These two only met a couple of weeks ago at Reliant Stadium in a game that ended with a Jaguars win by a Touchdown and I am surprised by the fact that the Texans are now favoured by more than a field goal in this game.

We have seen Maurice Jones-Drew pick up his game in the last three weeks and he is giving the Jaguars a semblance of a running game and I expect him to find running room in this one. That will keep the Offense in third and manageable situations and I think Chad Henne will be able to move the chains in that position.

The Houston Defense has played the pass pretty well this season, but there have been signs that they are beginning to struggle in that area too over the last three games.

On the other side of the ball, I am not expecting Ben Tate to have the same big performance that he did against New England as Jacksonville have played the run strongly. Over the course of the season, they have struggled, but they have held their last three opponents to just 2.5 yards per carry and that will keep Case Keenum in a tough position to make his plays.

Keenum will have some success against this Secondary when he looks to pass deep to Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, but it is a big ask of the rookie to keep making those plays from third and long situations if the running game struggles.

I also am surprised by how much weight so many are putting into the Houston game against New England- that was their 'Super Bowl' and they could have a let down in this one coming off a short week against a 'terrible' team like the Jags. Even if Houston win, I won't be ashamed of making this pick as a team losing 10 straight should not be favoured by more than a field goal on the road against anyone.

Jacksonville can't be trusted completely, so this will only be a one unit pick in a game the Jaguars have a real chance of winning outright.


Minnesota Vikings @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Joe Flacco will be over the moon to see Dennis Pitta back as another receiving threat, just in time for the 6-6 Ravens to try and make a move that will see them return to the Play Offs to defend their Super Bowl title. That could be the all-important against the Minnesota Secondary that has continued to struggle and I expect Baltimore to make hay through the air.

The Vikings won't be able to contain the Offense by focusing on Torrey Smith and I expect Joe Flacco to be able to have his biggest game of the season. The Offensive Line has to protect Flacco more consistently, while rain is a concern, but Baltimore should get things going through the air in this one.

Ray Rice has also shown some signs of life in recent games, while the Vikings run Defense has begun to wear down as the season has progressed and they have allowed the last three teams they have faced to rush for almost 5 yards per carry.

I think the running game will be important with the weather conditions as they are, and Adrian Peterson has also found his game back on track in recent games. He is facing a Baltimore Defense that keys in on the run and will force Matt Cassel to make the plays with his arm, but I still expect Peterson to grab his yards in this one.

If Baltimore can keep Peterson in check, they will force Matt Cassel in third and long situations and I would back the Baltimore Defense to win that battle more often. With Minnesota coming off back to back overtime games against Divisional rivals, this doesn't look a great spot for them and I like the Ravens to cover with Joe Flacco making a few plays with his arm to see them cover.


Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Neither team has much left to play for this season, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have shown enough life in recent games to think they can win this game, especially against a Buffalo Bills team that lost their last game in heartbreaking fashion.

EJ Manuel hasn't played as well on the road this season either, although he will be able to hand the ball off to either CJ Spiller or Fred Jackson to keep the chains moving. Tampa Bay have struggled against the run in the last three games, so the Bills should be able to keep the team in third and manageable situations if they are not grabbing first downs with their running game.

I also think the Buccaneers can give the ball to Bobby Rainey to keep their Offense moving forward themselves, and that will give Mike Glennon the chance to hit the deep ball too. The run game may help slow down the pass rush the Bills will throw towards them and also give Glennon enough time to try and find his receiving threats.

Buffalo have been strong against the pass in their recent games, so it won't be easy for Glennon, but getting a running game will be critical for him and that may be enough to make the plays from third and short situations, while play-action will also be key.

Home-field and Buffalo coming off a loss in terrible fashion is enough for me to have a small interest in the Buccaneers.


Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots Pick: The New England Patriots might still be winning games, but they have not been impressed with the way the Defense has been playing the last couple of games and will be looking for an improvement in this one.

It is going to be cold in Massachusetts on Sunday afternoon, but I don't think that will slow down what New England should be able to do with the ball in their hands. You have to credit the Cleveland Defense which has played well all season, but New England could match up with them very well when Tom Brady is throwing because I don't think Joe Haden will be as much of a factor as he has been this year.

Haden will cover one of the wideouts, but Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are unlikely to be in that position, while Shane Vereen is another threat coming out of the backfield. The Patriots will use the ground game to keep the Browns honest, but it will be down to Brady to move the chains through the air and I believe he is able to do that.

That means Jason Campbell, who looks one hit from being knocked out of the game, will have to try and keep up. He will look to Josh Gordon, but will find his best Receiver covered by Aqib Talib, even in his limited capacity. That means Campbell has to look elsewhere, and he will have to be careful of the pocket collapsing in on him with the injuries he has taken in recent weeks.

The Patriots have struggled to contain the run, but Cleveland have also struggled to open running lanes so New England should be able to force Campbell to make the plays with his arm. The last couple of weeks have seen the Patriots win games from behind, but I believe they have more control in this one and are able to get away from Cleveland and cover the spread.


Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets Pick: I am struggling to think of what the New York Jets have done in recent games to have them as a field goal favourite against any team and that includes the Oakland Raiders.

The Raiders have had a few extra days to get ready for this game with a Thanksgiving Day appearance behind them and they have a Quarter Back in Matt McGloin who seems happy to throw the ball out of the pocket. They will need him at his best as the Jets are one of the toughest Defenses in football to run against and I don't think an Oakland team missing their top two Running Backs is going to gain a lot of yards on the ground in this one.

The pressure up front will be another concern for the Raiders whose own Offensive Line has struggled, but the Jets Secondary has struggled and McGloin could make some big plays in this one.

That doesn't account for how bad Geno Smith has looked in the last three games since coming back off a bye and the Offense is accounting for less than 7 points per game in those three losses. I expect the Jets will be able to use Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell to at least run the ball effectively, but the Raiders will look to force Smith to make the plays with his arm.

I am expecting the Jets to at least keep Smith in third and manageable, but can Smith make the plays? Oakland are actually surprisingly effective at preventing the pass, while they should get pressure up front against this Offensive Line. That could prevent the Jets sustaining drives and I think the 3 point head start for the road team is a touch on the high side.


Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers Pick: This is another game where I don't understand why the home team are getting as many points to cover as they are.

The Green Bay Packers are missing Aaron Rodgers for another week and while they are in a desperate position to win, I don't think Matt Flynn is someone that I would want to lay 3.5 points on him doing so against a team like Atlanta that have picked up form and can score points.

Both teams should have success through the air, and both are capable of running the ball against the Defense they will face- Steven Jackson has shown signs of life in the last couple of weeks, but the Falcons may look to load the box and force the Packers away from Eddie Lacy in this one.

I think both will struggle to contain the aerial threat, but I would trust Matt Ryan more than I would Flynn and I can see the Falcons, who have lost Play Off home games to the Packers in the recent past, look to put another nail in the Green Bay post-season hopes in this one.

This looks like a game that may be decided by a field goal either way, so the 3.5 head start is hard to ignore.


Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos Pick: The Denver Broncos can't afford to drop a game in their bid to finish as the Number 1 seed in the AFC for a second year in succession and I think they will be able to see off Tennessee in this game.

The weather may be the only factor for the Denver Offense to worry about, while Tennessee can get a decent pass rush together, but it would still be a surprise if the Broncos didn't score at least 30 points in this one.

Tennessee's biggest hope is to establish Chris Johnson and try and sustain long drives which will keep Peyton Manning and the Denver Offense on the sidelines, but that will also mean Ryan Fitzpatrick making plays with his arm. He is an erratic Quarter Back that is capable of putting together a mistake-free game, but can end up in a vicious circle if he is forced to throw to keep the Titans competitive in this one.

The Titans are just not built to come back from large deficits and that is a real possibility against Denver- I just feel if the Broncos get a two score lead by half time, the Titans could unravel in this one and Denver pull away for a comfortable win.


Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: This is a big rivalry game so I don't expect a let up from the Seattle Seahawks despite having a big lead when it comes to wrapping up the Number 1 seed in the NFC.

They would love to wrap up their Play Off berth with a win over the San Francisco 49ers, a win that would once again put their rivals Play Off hopes in a precarious position. However, the Secondary is a little banged up and the 49ers now have their full complement of weapons back this week so I think we may see a reverse from their game earlier this season.

I don't believe anyone would blow out the Seahawks, but the 49ers may hold the edge in a game that is far more important for their long-term hopes than it is for Seattle. Michael Crabtree's return to the line up means teams have to focus on more than Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin, although there is a concern on a couple of starters on the Offensive Line which would cause big problems for the 49ers.

Both teams are likely going to have more running lanes than would perhaps be expected when these Defenses are in town and Russell Wilson is a Quarter Back I wouldn't feel comfortable opposing too many times. I just feel the Seahawks put in a lot in their Monday Night Football win over New Orleans and may come up short in this one.

I believe Colin Kaepernick is ready to turn a corner for the season and has been improving the last three weeks- with his additional weapons, I like the 49ers in this one.


Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The New Orleans Saints Offense looked devoid of ideas in their loss on Monday Night Football, but they are back in their 'happy place' and I am expecting a big bounce back from them.

New Orleans are a completely different proposition when they play in front of their rabid fan base and while the Panthers Defense is legit, I do think the home field and match up problems will favour the Saints in this one.

The Saints Defense is also playing better against the run in recent games and I am not of the believe that Cam Newton can beat them solely through the pass, because he doesn't have the same weapons that Drew Brees can rely upon. Newton will be scramble around, but the Saints pass rush is pretty good and I can see Rob Ryan firing up the Defense to prove they are better than they showed last week.

There are not too many times that the Saints don't perform in front of their own fans and I like them to recover and take control of the NFC South in this Sunday Night Football affair.

MY PICKS: Jacksonville Jaguars + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 10 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders + 3 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 11.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Week 13: 6-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2013: 63-47-2, + 22.96 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Week 14 Picks and Previews

I have been away for the past couple of weeks, but at least they have been successful weeks to reduce some of the damage done in the first 11 weeks of the season. It has been a tough season all around I think, with teams playing to some real lows and real highs, making it hard to get a real read on games.

Week 13 Thoughts
1) There is one team that can take it to the Green Bay Packers: For a long time now, I have felt the second best team in the NFL is the New Orleans Saints and I still think they are one team that can beat the Green Bay Packers as they are one of the few that can match them in a track meet and have a Defense that is capable of making big plays and create turnovers.


They met in Week 1 at Lambeau Field in a close game won by the home team, but I do have bigger concerns of the Saints Offense having to re-visit that Stadium in the cold of January. It is clear the Saints are a better team indoors, but they at least have the weapons to match up with the Packers and could be the one team in the NFC that can stop this potential unbeaten season.


2) The Giants could be ready to make a move in the NFC East: It sounds funny to say that considering they are 6-6 and have lost 4 games in a row, but take a deeper look. The Dallas Cowboys are only 1 game ahead of the Giants in the East and the two teams will be meeting twice in the last 4 weeks of the season, the first of those this week in Dallas.


The Giants are 2-0 in the new Cowboys Stadium, and they come in having lost a close one to a team looking to go unbeaten in the regular season and beyond... Deja Vu anyone? In 2007, the Giants pushed the then unbeaten New England Patriots all the way, coming up short. However, they used that to sneak into the Play Offs where they then won 3 straight road games and went on to defeat the Patriots in the SuperBowl.


I would still favour Green Bay if they were to face the Giants again, this time at home, but I think the Giants have shown enough to suggest they are going to push on from last weeks loss.


3) The AFC SuperBowl representative will come out of the AFC North: This is my personal opinion- I think either Baltimore or Pittsburgh will be representing the AFC, even if neither finishes in the top 2 seeds in the Conference.


Both teams are strong enough to beat the Patriots, even on the road, and they look the most balanced teams in the AFC on both sides of the ball. Baltimore have already recorded big wins over top teams this season, Pittsburgh have already beaten New England and they look like the teams to beat right now.




Power Rankings Top 10
1) Green Bay Packers (12-0): Not much more to say with an unbeaten season in the offing
2) San Francisco 49ers (10-2): Still a little bit of work to do to secure a top 2 spot, and a bye, in the NFC
3) New Orleans Saints (9-3): Team that can run with the Packers
4) Baltimore Ravens (9-3): Probably the pick of the AFC
5) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3): SuperBowl contenders
6) New England Patriots (9-3): Defense playing better of late? Or is it the weak schedule that is making them look better than they are.
7) Houston Texans (9-3): Cannot afford a long term injury to Andre Johnson
8) Denver Broncos (7-5): I like Tim Tebow... Not convinced that he can lead them deep into the Play Offs but this has been a successful season regardless.
9) New York Jets (7-5): Really need to win out the rest of the season to make the Play Offs, but that won't be easy
10) Tennessee Titans (7-5): Chris Johnson is back on form it seems, and they are only 2 games behind the Texans in the AFC South... Big couple of weeks for their Play Off hopes.




My Top 5 and Bottom 5
1) Green Bay Packers                                32) Indianapolis Colts
2) New Orleans Saints                                31) St Louis Rams
3) Baltimore Ravens                                   30) Cleveland Browns
4) Pittsburgh Steelers                                 29) Jacksonville Jaguars
5) San Francisco 49ers                               28) Minnesota Vikings




Week 14 Picks and Previews
I will be updating this during the next couple of days as I get my picks together for this weeks action. As always, you can follow me on Twitter where I will write anytime I have some updates.


Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick and Preview ( http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12601-Cleveland-Browns-at-Pittsburgh-Steelers.htm)

New England Patriots @ Washington Redskins Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12636-New-England-Patriots-at-Washington-Redskins.htm)

New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12637-New-Orleans-Saints-at-Tennessee-Titans.htm)

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12638-Kansas-City-Chiefs-at-New-York-Jets.htm)

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12639-Atlanta-Falcons-at-Carolina-Panthers.htm)

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12640-San-Francisco-49ers-at-Arizona-Cardinals.htm)

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12641-New-York-Giants-at-Dallas-Cowboys.htm)




MY PICKS: Pittsburgh Steelers - 14 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 3.5 Points @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs + 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Carolina-Atlanta Over 47 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 BetFred (2 Units)
New York Giants + 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Chicago Bears + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Victor Chandler (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 16 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Oakland Raiders + 11.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
San Diego Chargers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)





WEEK 13: 6-3, + 5.54 Units
WEEK 12: 5-3, + 2.87 Units
WEEK 11: 3-7, - 8.26 Units
WEEK 10: 4-6, - 3.74 Units
WEEK 9: 6-2, + 7.04 Units
WEEK 8: 3-5, - 6.44 Units
WEEK 7: 5-4, - 2.61 Units
WEEK 6: 4-4-1, - 2.24 Units
WEEK 5, 5-3, + 3.15 Units

WEEK 4: 4-7, - 6.66 Units

WEEK 3: 4-3-1, + 2.77 Units

WEEK 2: 3-5, - 5.03 Units

WEEK 1: 4-2, + 2.53 Units


SEASON UPDATE: 56-54-2, - 11.08 Units