NFL Week 13 Picks 2015 (December 3-7)

The NFL moves into December and Week 13 when teams really start to pick up momentum for the Play Offs and a potential run to the Super Bowl.

You can read my recap of Week 12 here.

Week 13 Picks

You can see my views on a terrible Week 12 in the Recap above, and so Week 13 is a time when I am looking to bounce back. It has to be better than last week when I could have tossed a coin and got better results than I did.

It has been a long week for me so this week I have just got my picks ready.

MY PICKS: New York Giants + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Betway (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers - 6 Points @ Bet Victor (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders + 3 Points @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles + 8 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 9 Points @ 1.95 Betway (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys + 4 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

NFL Week 12 Recap 2015 (December 2nd)

I haven't had the time to put together an NFL Recap for the last couple of weeks, but hopefully that won't be the case for the rest of the season.

The NFL continues producing plenty of big stories after each week and Week 12 is no different as we get into the home stretch towards the Play Offs.

Jeff Fisher Should be Fired by the St Louis Rams at the End of the Season

He was one of the most sought after Head Coaches in the NFL after his time at the Tennessee Titans and it was the St Louis Rams who convinced Jeff Fisher to take over as Head Coach rather than head to the Miami Dolphins.

Fisher was successful with the Titans/Houston Oilers, but he now has just two winning seasons as a Head Coach in his last ten years. His best record with the Rams was a 7-8-1 record in his first season, but things have progressively got worse for Fisher as he has since gone 7-9, 6-10 and his team have lost four in a row to drop to 4-7 this season.

After the blow out loss in Cincinnati, Fisher told his critics to 'kiss my ass' if they were to criticise the effort his St Louis Rams have been making, but that's not good enough. There is so much talent on the Defensive side of the ball that it feels like the Rams are underachieving, while the appointment of Gregg Williams as Defensive Co-Ordinator has looked a big mistake with accusations of the St Louis Defensive unit making 'dirty plays'.

Offensively they have been a mess throughout Fisher's time here and the trade for Nick Foles to replace Sam Bradford has simply not worked. The Offensive plays are heavily reliant on gimmick plays and Todd Gurley has hit a wall in his rookie season.

Worst of all is the fact that Fisher didn't pull Case Keenum in the loss to Baltimore in Week 11 when the Quarter Back clearly was disorientated after a hit to his head. Fisher's excuse that he was concentrating on 'game management' isn't good enough and the St Louis Rams are perhaps moving to LA in time for the 2016 season.

Even if that doesn't happen, I think Fisher has had his shot and the St Louis Rams should make sure they are looking for a new Head Coach. One that can build a decent Offensive unit from the pieces they have to go with a Defense that is very under-rated and not being given enough time to rest in games with the other side of the ball constantly landing in three and out spots.

The NFC East Clearly the Worst Division in the NFL

A few weeks ago it was a hard choice to separate the NFC East and the AFC South as the worst Divisions in the NFL, but it has become clear through Week 12 that the NFC East holds that distinction.

The Dallas Cowboys haven't had much luck with their injuries and the renewed collarbone issue for Tony Romo means it is hard to see them making a run. However most teams who have lost seven in a row at some point in the season wouldn't be expected to be challenging for the Division, but the NFC East has been so awful that they are only two games out of the lead.

Then you have the Philadelphia Eagles who have been blown out in back to back weeks and have had their Head Coach Chip Kelly being questioned from a number of different angles. Philadelphia were booed off in their last home game and were embarrassed on Thanksgiving Day, but they are still only one game out of the Division lead.

The New York Giants have to be feeling the worst having had a chance to control the Division by winning on Sunday, but Eli Manning threw three Interceptions and his team fell into a 20-0 hole to the Washington Redskins. A late comeback fell short and that means the Giants and Redskins lead the Division with 5-6 records with just five weeks left to go.

Will this be the latest Division in recent years to send a team to the Play Offs with a losing record? I think the New York Giants can end this season with a 3-2 record to finish 8-8 and win the Division, but it is still very feasible that the Division does have a team with a losing record hosting a Play Off game in January.

Are the Pittsburgh Steelers the Dark Horse to Reach the Super Bowl?

This is the time of the season when fans start looking out for a team that is coming through the pack to perhaps have a surprising Play Off run that potentially leads to the Super Bowl.

In recent years we have seen teams like the New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks and the Pittsburgh Steelers put together strong runs in December which have resulted in the team reaching the Super Bowl even as Wild Card teams.

I know Kansas City seem to be a popular choice to do that in the AFC, but I really have a lot of belief in the Pittsburgh Steelers if they can somehow get Big Ben Roethlisberger healthy.

Roethlisberger is in the concussion protocol this week, but he showed what he is capable of with a huge performance at the Seattle Seahawks in Week 12. He has some big time weapons in the Receiving department while DeAngelo Williams has been an effective replacement for the injured Le'Veon Bell.

The Defensive unit has to play better in the Secondary to really fulfil my belief though after failing to play much coverage in Week 12, but this Steelers team looks very dangerous.

Going 4-1 down the stretch should be good enough to get Pittsburgh into the Play Offs as a Wild Card team and might even be enough to take the Number 5 Seed. That would mean going to the AFC South winner in the Wild Card Round which should see Pittsburgh building momentum and they will feel they can out-score any team they potentially play from the Divisional Round onwards.

It was Almost the Worst Case Scenario for the New England Patriots

With just three minutes left and controlling the ball, the New England Patriots were looking to run some clock and grab a couple of First Downs that would have won the game in Denver.

But a throw towards Rob Gronkowski almost saw their season go up in flames as the Tight End saw his right knee snapped back and had to be carted off the field.

Outside of Tom Brady, Gronkowski is the one player they can't afford to lose on an Offense that is plagued with injuries. Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis and Danny Amendola were important pieces of the Offense already missing and it didn't look too good for Gronk who was writhing in agony on the slow covered turf.

Fortunately for the Patriots, it looks like their star Tight End has escaped serious injury and he potentially takes to the field this weekend. I don't think New England risk him with a 10-1 record which keeps them as favourites to win the AFC Number 1 Seed and home field advantage so I am expecting Gronkowski back in Week 14.


The Seattle Seahawks weren't so fortunate as Jimmy Graham was ruled out for the season and the big target they acquired in the off-season won't make any Play Off games either. Graham and Russell Wilson just seemed to be getting on the same page too so it is a blow for the Seahawks who need all the Offensive weapons they can get to protect a surprisingly porous Defensive unit.

The Brock Osweiler Era Has Begun in Denver

Before Week 12 there was still a feeling that Peyton Manning would be restored as the Denver Bronco starting Quarter Back as soon as he was healthy to go. That would only change if Brock Osweiler was to have a second solid start in a row, this time against the New England Patriots, and there is little doubt that he passed that test with flying colours.

It would be a huge mistake for Gary Kubiak and the Broncos to turn the Offense back to Manning with the way Osweiler has played in his first two games. He has been more than a simple game manager, making some big throws but most importantly Osweiler hasn't made too many mistakes to put his Defensive unit under pressure.

The running game has been more effective with Osweiler taking the snaps from under Center and the team are fully behind their young Quarter Back which is vitally important for Denver. For many people this has looked a small window for the Broncos to win the Super Bowl and so Kubiak has to go with his best option which looks to be Osweiler.


That is no disrespect to Peyton Manning who has been a Hall of Fame Quarter Back through his career in the NFL. However his mistakes have been terrible and Denver are almost into the Play Offs where Manning doesn't have the best record during his peak years, let alone when he is playing at his current level.

Reports suggest Manning is not quite ready to hang up his cleats, but Denver won't be his home in the 2016 season on his current contract and this does feel like a permanent changing of the guard at the Quarter Back position.

Top Ten

1) Carolina Panthers (11-0): The Carolina Panthers look to be the team to beat and they are very close to picking up home field advantage through the Play Offs.

2) Arizona Cardinals (9-2): The Arizona Cardinals are a little banged up at Running Back which might cause problems in January, but they can take care of business at home.

3) Denver Broncos (9-2): I am sold on Brock Osweiler and think he can do enough coupled with a very good Defensive unit to see the Broncos go very far in the Play Offs.

4) New England Patriots (10-1): Banged up on Offense and that might cause problems for Tom Brady and the Patriots.

5) Cincinnati Bengals (9-2): Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals could still take the Number 1 Seed in the AFC if they can win out and the Patriots slip, but they have to prove they can play in December and January.

6) Minnesota Vikings (8-3): Could have quietly become the third best team in the NFC, but this week is a chance to prove themselves against the Seattle Seahawks.

7) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5): They might have lost in Seattle but I still rate them above the Seahawks if they can get Ben Roethlisberger healthy.

8) Seattle Seahawks (6-5): It was a big win for Seattle in Week 12, but they were heavily outgained in terms of yards and had a couple of fortunate plays go their way. Legion of Boom has been terrible defending the pass which is a concern.

9) Kansas City Chiefs (6-5): I am not convinced about this team, but the Chiefs have plenty of momentum behind them which can't be ignored.

10) Green Bay Packers (7-4): The Green Bay Packers have lost their form at the wrong time and Aaron Rodgers is demanding his team get back on track with harder work on the practice field.

Bottom Five

32) Cleveland Browns (2-9): How typical of the Cleveland Browns to lose a game where they had the winning Field Goal only to see it blocked and returned for the winning Touchdown.

31) Tennessee Titans (2-9): This is a team that has been unfortunate in some recent losses, but a long home losing run is hard to ignore. Won't have a better chance to snap it than hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13.

30) Miami Dolphins (4-7): The Miami Dolphins have made more Co-Ordinator changes, but this looks a team that has given up on the season.

29) Dallas Cowboys (3-8): They might still be in the hunt for the NFC East Division, but Tony Romo is done for the regular season and the Dallas Cowboys might start focusing on earning a high Draft Pick.

28) New Orleans Saints (4-7): How pathetic are the New Orleans Saints that they come out of their bye week having fired their Defensive Co-Ordinator and then made Brian Hoyer look like Joe Montana.

Week 12 Picks Recap

I have had some bad weeks in my years of making picks on this blog, but this was by far the most pathetic performance.

2-10...

2-10... I would have been better off tossing a coin with some of the picks made this week and even the Denver Broncos pick only came through thanks to some last minute Brock Osweiler magic.

My Thanksgiving Day Picks were all terrible, but I still don't understand what has happened to the Green Bay Packers to give up games as they have.

It was worse on Sunday with Tampa Bay in a position to cover only to fall apart in the second half after leading at the end of the first half. Eli Manning came out and put the New York Giants in a big hole, while teams like the Miami Dolphins, St Louis Rams and New Orleans Saints were just horrible from the beginning to the end.

So I can't even blame too much bad luck, the picks just stunk and have completely eviscerated the season performance to this point. From a decent position I have moved into a big hole because of that pathetic Week 12, but I have to clear the mind and get back to focusing on what had worked for much of the season.

I don't need to get it all back at once, I just want to get back to winning weeks and see if that can get the season back on track with five regular season weeks to go.

NFL Week 13 Picks 2013 (November 28-December 2)

Week 12 proved to be one for the underdog as the majority of the games ended with the dog covering, while there were also a few real surprise finishes including Tampa Bay winning in Detroit. The classic Sunday Night Football game between New England and Denver was a memorable one, especially for the way Tom Brady led the Patriots back in terrible conditions, but that went against the picks I made and it ended the week in a disappointing fashion.

It was a winning week, but it could have been so much more if either of the Manning brothers in the NFL had found a way to win games that were tied late into the day.

On another note, as a Miami Dolphin fan I was very disappointed with the home loss against Carolina as Miami had dominated the game for the most part but couldn't get the job done. In saying that, I would love to know how the referee missed the clearly illegal hit on Rishard Matthews by Luke Kuechly- this is the second week in a row the Linebacker has gotten away with what should have been a penalty committed in the end zone, and one that may have effectively cost Miami the chance to put the ailing Panthers away on the day.

Week 12 Thoughts

Play Off teams begin to separate from the rest: As the NFL enters the final five weeks of the season, it is no surprise that we are beginning to see some separation between those teams that have a chance of reaching the Play Offs and those that are unlikely to do so.

While the AFC is a fairly open Division with a number of teams in contention for the final Wild Card spot in the Conference, the Dallas Cowboys have effectively ended the New York Giants chance of making the post-season and cut the contenders in half in the NFC East.

The NFC East got clearer, and teams like New England have taken a stranglehold of their Division, but the NFC North remains up for grabs as none of the teams in that Division managed to win the game. The Green Bay Packers tie with Minnesota may have put the Packers behind the black ball if they are to make the Play Offs, and also increases the importance of finding a way to win in Detroit this Thanksgiving Day before the expected return of Aaron Rodgers.

That is the most fascinating Division in the NFL at the moment, but I am expecting a lot more drama down the stretch.

Have Jacksonville ended their own chances of finishing with the Number 1 pick in the Draft? I don't necessarily agree with tanking a season, but Jacksonville are desperate for some reinvestment in their playing staff and I had tipped them to finish with the Number 1 Pick next April.

I did not expect the Jaguars to win in Tennessee and Houston which may have ended their hopes and the chance to pick up a potential franchise Quarter Back. The feeling is that this Draft could have a deep class of Quarter Back, so it may not be the end of the world for the Jags, but I look at the teams that would have higher Draft choices if the season ends today and I do worry for Jacksonville fans.

The Houston Texans could clear out the Head Coach and his staff come the end of the season, while Matt Schaub looks finished here with the fans at his back. Case Keenum has looked good at times, but I expect the Texans may be looking for a Quarter Back if they finish with the Number 1 pick.

The Jaguars should be very glad Minnesota avoided defeat at Green Bay last week as they are another team that are likely to be looking for a new signal caller and there is the potential for Jacksonville to 'only' have the Number 3 pick if they continue their upturn in fortune. That could be significantly damaging for the long-term prospects of the franchise and won't be much fun for London fans that get to 'enjoy' the Jags for the next three years.

Seattle Super Bowl hopes take a hit: So Brandon Browner could potentially be ruled out of the rest of the season and Willie Thurmond has been suspended for four games- Browner is also potentially going to be serving a one year suspension for using stimulants and he will be a big loss for the Legion of Boom Secondary that has been so effective for Seattle.

It would be a loss and losing one of the big Corner Backs that causes so many physical match up problems is tough to overcome for Seattle, although the Seahawks can at least point to an improvement on the Offensive side of the ball with the return to health of some key personnel.

The situation is one that can be overcome on the face of things, but how will Seattle react to the news of a couple of key Defensive Backs and that is the question that will be answered. They have a huge game with New Orleans this Monday Night Football and the Number 1 seed and home field advantage may not be as wrapped up as I thought it was.

The NFC Wild Card race is likely to live up to its name: I was looking at the teams that are chasing the Wild Card in the NFC and it is extremely tough to separate a number of teams at this moment in time. The Carolina Panthers (8-3) look in a strong position but don't have an easy end to the season and they are closely followed by the San Francisco 49ers (7-4), Arizona Cardinals (7-4).

To make things more complicated, the second place team in both the NFC East and North have 6-5 records- the most exciting aspect is the number of these teams that will play one another down the stretch and really give fans plenty to look forward to.


My Play Off teams: Things can quickly change in the NFL with injuries and the like changing these projections each week, but here are mine after the Week 12 results.

AFC: 1) Denver, 2) New England, 3) Cincinnati, 4) Indianapolis, 5) Kansas City, 6) Pittsburgh

NFC: 1) Seattle, 2) New Orleans, 3) Philadelphia, 4) Detroit, 5) Carolina, 6) San Francisco

Top Ten

1) Seattle Seahawks (10-1): Only team with double digit wins this season.

2) New Orleans Saints (9-2): It's a huge game for the Saints on MNF as they visit the Seahawks.

3) Denver Broncos (9-2): That was a heartbreaking loss on Sunday night, but Denver are still in control of the Number 1 seed in the AFC.

4) New England Patriots (8-3): The win over Denver in the fashion they did makes New England a dangerous team going into the Play Off run.

5) Carolina Panthers (8-3): No team is hotter than the Panthers who can make a big statement with two games against the Saints coming up.

6) Kansas City Chiefs (9-2): The Chiefs may just start slipping down if they lose to Denver again this week.

7) Arizona Cardinals (7-4): Back in the Wild Card mix, but a big game at Philadelphia next.

8) San Francisco 49ers (7-4): Another team back in the Wild Card mix and two big home games against St Louis and Seattle up next.

9) Philadelphia Eagles (6-5): Hot streak going into the bye will be tested by Arizona this week.

10) Cincinnati Bengals (7-4): Hard to decide my final team, but they are in control of the AFC North and are in a strong position to reach the Play Offs.

Bottom Five

32) Houston Texans (2-9): 9 straight losses, a Head Coach that has seemingly lost his team and this season can only be described as an abomination after losing at home to the Jaguars.

31) Atlanta Falcons (2-9): Put everything into a 'Super Bowl' against New Orleans and came up short.

30) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9): I never thought they would win one game, let alone two and all credit to Gus Bradley for engineering two road wins in the Division.

29) Minnesota Vikings (2-8-1): Blew a big lead in Green Bay before playing out a tie.

28) Washington Redskins (3-8): Time to sit RG3 for the season and get ready for a lot of changes in the staff this off-season.

Week 13 Picks

It could have been a lot worse in Week 12 as most of the games I really liked fell through, the Denver game in particularly being disappointing as the Broncos blew a 24 point half time lead to lose the game at New England.

This week we have three Thursday night games as we have reached Thanksgiving Day and all the bye weeks have been completed so the real move towards the Play Offs can begin. Games don't get any more important with five weeks left of the season and teams jockeying for position and this week we have a few more of those for the neutrals to enjoy.


Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: This is a big game for both teams and I would go so far as to say that I am expecting the winner to win the NFC North and go through to the Play Offs. Both teams are coming in without a win for a while, but I think the Detroit Lions have a real chance to snap their losing run on Thanksgiving Day.

I think both teams have every chance of moving the chains in this one, but I do think the Detroit Lions will have the more consistent success as long as they stop shooting themselves in the foot.

It was the Interceptions and fumbles that cost the Lions the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but take those away and I expect Detroit would have won that one.

Detroit should be more focused for this game and I expect Matt Stafford to Calvin Johnson/Nate Burleson combination to help move the chains downfield, while Reggie Bush should be able to find decent running lanes in this one.

I am not convinced about Matt Flynn either, although I do think he can have some success against the Lions Secondary that can struggle in coverage. However, I will have a small interest in the Lions to cover this game.


Oakland Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Both teams are coming off emotional games so I am expecting that to offset against one another and I do think the Dallas Cowboys can win this game and cover the spread.

When the line was opened, it did seem Oakland were being given too many points, but that line has come down to a more manageable level and one that I think the Cowboys are the right side.

Dallas have a strong record on Thanksgiving Day, although they have failed to cover the last two years, including a surprise loss to Washington last season. However, Tony Romo is playing very efficiently at the moment and I expect the Cowboys to be able to move down the field with some consistency.

It's not to say that Oakland won't have some success too as they should be able to run the ball with enough effectiveness to open play-action and boot leg passes for Matt McGloin. The Quarter Back has looked better than I would have imagined, but Oakland need to finish drives with Touchdowns to give themselves a chance in this one.

Turnovers may prove to be the difference in this one, but Romo has been good at protecting the ball, while the Cowboys Defense has forced the ball over. That may be where the game is covered or not and I like Dallas to get over the line.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: When the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers meet one another, you have to expect a close, bruising battle and this one is not expected to be any different.

The momentum is certainly behind Pittsburgh who also have a decent recent record at this stadium, but Baltimore have the more consistent Defense and may force more mistakes.

It is an incredibly tough game to call, but the line seems to value Baltimore a little more than Pittsburgh. I think the Ravens Defense is going to be able to force more three and outs and limit the Steelers game compared to the other way around.

Joe Flacco should be given a little more time in the pocket out of the two Quarter Backs and the Steelers Defense is not as good as it once was. Baltimore should be the more desperate team too and that may give them the edge in the game, although I can't have anything but a small interest in the game.


Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: The Indianapolis Colts have been playing terribly over the last few games, ever since Reggie Wayne was lost for the season, but they look in a good spot to bounce back and win this game and the AFC South Division.

The Colts knocked off Tennessee a couple of weeks ago in a come from behind win, but the manner of their loss to Arizona last week has given a bit of value on the spread which would have been 8.5 points a couple of weeks ago.

Donald Brown will be starting at Running Back and he has gashed Tennessee enough in the past to think he will have success in this one. That will ease the pressure that has built on Andrew Luck in recent games and I am expecting the Colts to move the ball in much better fashion than they have in the last four games.

I am not disputing the fact that Tennessee will have their success moving the ball too, but Indianapolis should be too good and I think they win this game by a Touchdown at least.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers Pick: At this stage of the NFL season, teams are already beginning to think about the Play Offs and positioning so there is a chance that Carolina are already thinking about their two games with the New Orleans Saints in the next three weeks that will decide the NFC South.

However, they can't afford to drop games like this because there is host of teams lined up behind them for a Wild Card race and Ron Rivera won't want to put all his eggs in the basket of having to beat Drew Brees to make the post-season.

The fact that Tampa Bay have won 3 in a row should also keep the home team focused.

I think the absence of Darrelle Revis is going to be a huge problem for Tampa Bay to overcome and it should give Cam Newton the chance to throw the ball around with success. That may open their running lanes and the chance for all the Running Backs to be involved, while the Defense is capable of giving Mike Glennon problems for the second game this season.

Glennon won't be able to rely on Bobby Rainey on the ground and may have to hit a few bombs as he did against Detroit last week. However, that may not be enough against this confident Panthers team and I like them to cover.


Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: It would be a surprise to me if these teams don't move up and down the field all day on Offense, but I think the Chicago Bears may be in a good position to at least keep tabs with the Detroit Lions in the NFC North.

In the absence of Lance Briggs, Chicago have not been able to contain the run game and Adrian Peterson is probable to go and could have his biggest rushing game of the season. On the other hand, Minnesota's Secondary is terrible and I expect Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery to have big games even with Josh McCown throwing the ball to them.

The difference for me? I don't trust Christian Ponder who can be far too erratic and it would not surprise me if he makes the mistake that costs the Vikings the chance to win, while Minnesota also put a lot into their game at Green Bay last week and still couldn't beat a banged up team with a big lead.


Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: This game has so many potential Play Off implications and should be the game to watch from the early ones with both Philadelphia and Arizona in strong form.

The Cardinals are not in a great spot coming off a huge win and now travelling across the country to take on a team coming off a bye. Philadelphia have shown signs of improvement on both sides of the ball during their 3 game winning run although I would happily concede that Arizona are by far the best team they have faced in that time.

Arizona's Defense is under-rated and it won't be easy for Nick Foles to have the games he has had of late, although there can be blown coverages and Foles has looked to take his shots downfield. It will be on Foles as the Cardinals can slow down the running game.

On the other hand, Carson Palmer should also have a big game, but the Eagles will look to get pressure on this Offensive Line and try and force mistakes out of the veteran Quarter Back. Palmer has been guilty of turning the ball over and that could be a problem for the Cardinals if their Defense doesn't get the required rest between drives against an up-tempo Offense.

Foles is yet to throw a pick this season and that kind of game may spark a big win for the Eagles as they look to overtake Dallas in the NFC East.


New England Patriots @ Houston Texans Pick: There is a chance that New England could have an emotional down game after the way they beat Denver last week in dramatic fashion and they also have an important Divisional game next week.

However, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will smell the Number 1 seed in the Conference so can't afford to lose to an AFC team that has played as badly as Houston in recent weeks.

The Texans have struggled to run the ball or stop the run, two elements they have prided themselves on in recent seasons. Houston have been devoid of an Offensive spark, although they may have saved some energy to ensure they put in all their effort in this game.

My problem is trusting Case Keenum to make enough plays without mistakes to keep sustained drives on the field, while I also think the Patriots Offense is going to begin to click together now with better health.

The Houston pass Defense may make some plays, but New England look far too strong and I like them to win this game going away from the Texans.


St Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: There is no doubt that Jim Harbaugh will be looking forward to locking horns with Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks again next week, but he will be more than aware of the significance of winning this game.

San Francisco have been harshly criticised recently, but were back to their best against Washington on Monday Night Football and have the added benefit of the returning Michael Crabtree. I don't expect a huge game from Crabtree immediately, but his presence will force Defenses to respect him and open the passing lanes to Anquan Boldin or Vernon Davis.

That will help Colin Kaepernick a lot, and I think he is another player that has been harshly criticised considering he has only two real weapons to throw to. The read option hasn't been used that much, but I think the 49ers will be able to establish a run to slow down the vicious St Louis pass rush.

I do think San Francisco will move the chains and score points in this game so the question is whether Kellen Clemens and the St Louis Rams team can keep up. They have had a lot of big plays in their wins over the last couple of games, but San Francisco are well coached and will be prepared to limit what they give.

The 49ers should stay focused and I like them to win this one by double digits.


Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: There is no doubt that the spread is out of whack with Denver being almost the same number on the road as they were asked to cover at home.

However, I do think the Broncos are going to be too strong for Kansas City for the second time in three weeks because their Offense will score their points and I am not sure Kansas City can score enough to keep up.

As long as the game is close, Alex Smith and the Kansas City Offense can play their cautious game, but Denver score points quickly and that will force the Chiefs to throw caution to the wind. The absence of Justin Houston and a hampered Tamba Hali should only give Peyton Manning a little more time and I think Denver may be itching to go and remove the memory of last weeks loss in New England.

Kansas City have won their games because the Defense has limited teams, but they have struggled the last two weeks and that puts the Offense in a tough position to come back. Denver should win this game by a Touchdown at least.


New York Giants @ Washington Redskins Pick: Both teams are going to be emotionally down after losses last week and this is a real eliminator when it comes to the Play Offs, even though the winner is also going to be on life support when it comes to post-season play.

With that in mind, I am surprised the layers have this as a pick 'em contest because the Giants seem to have a real edge when you look at the match up on the field.

The Washington Defense has struggled to stop teams all season and the Giants should have a balance on Offense to keep them guessing and have sustained drives. Errors from Eli Manning are still evident, but he may not have to do a lot if Andre Brown picks up from last week while the returning Hakeem Nicks gives him another reliable Receiver.

On the other hand, I don't know what Robert Griffin III has done in recent games to think he can avoid the mistakes and make the plays necessary to win the game.

New York have been capable of slowing down rushing attacks and have also improved their pass rush in recent games. Their recent record against Washington does put me off a little, but the Giants look the better team at the moment and have to be the call to win this game.

MY PICKS: Detroit Lions - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
Carolina Panthers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3 Points @ 1.90 Coral (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 7 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New York Giants + 1 Point @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2013: 57-43-1, + 19.31 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units