US Open Day 11 Tennis Picks 2026 (Wednesday 9th September)

Day 10 at the US Open proved to be a tough day for the selections, but the tight margins all seemingly went against the Tennis Picks made and that can happen.

Aryna Sabalenka won considerably more points than Linda Noskova, but lost more games than her opponent thanks to some wasteful moments on the Break Points and Jessica Pegula was also guilty of missing big opportunities to control her Quarter Final before eventually pushing through to the last four.

The Frances Tiafoe comeback began a set too late, but the frustration added up when thinking there was just enough juice in the Carlos Alcaraz performance to put me off backing Ben Shelton in some capacity.

Never mind, these things happen and the key is to try and remain focused and look for better results as the Quarter Finals are completed on Day 11 at the tournament.

A huge opportunity has opened up in the Men's tournament with Alcaraz joining Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner out of this Grand Slam, while the last three days of WTA action should be very special considering the talent and quality that has made it to this stage of the US Open.

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Botic Van De Zandschulp: The third set might have been more competitive than the previous two, but Alexander Zverev will simply be pleased to have gotten through the Fourth Round match in straight sets.

That makes it seven straight sets won at the US Open and back to back straight sets wins means Alexander Zverev should have plenty of energy to take into the final few days in New York City. He is a considerable favourite to come through the top half of the draw as the top Seed and Alexander Zverev will be confident he can go one better than previously at the US Open and win a second Grand Slam in 2026.

Conserving some energy in the last couple of Rounds after back to back five setters will really help and the big question around this Quarter Final has to be about the fitness of Botic Van De Zandschulp.

The World Number 70 has had a very different tournament compared with Alexander Zverev.

Botic Van De Zandschulp began with consecutive straight sets wins, but he was 2-1 behind in sets in the Third Round before rallying in over four and a half hours to earn a spot in the Fourth Round. The Dutchman reached the Quarter Final at the US Open in his debut at the tournament in 2021, but Botic Van De Zandschulp has made one Fourth Round since then and had not made that stage of any Grand Slam in sixteen previous attempts.

It made that win in the Third Round really important, but Botic Van De Zandschulp went one better in the Fourth Round by recovering from losing the opening two sets, saving Match Point and breaking serve at the end of the fourth set before eventually completing a huge comeback against Arthur Gea. That Fourth Round match was won in five hours and eighteen minutes and the 30 year old looked absolutely shattered by the end, which makes that question about recovery so important.

Even if he was fully healthy, Botic Van De Zandschulp would be a big underdog against the World Number 2.

His serve can be an important weapon, but Van De Zandschulp has been broken fourteen times in the last two matches and you do have to believe that is partly down to the fatigue building up. The record on the hard courts this summer has been decent without being spectacular, and Botic Van De Zandschulp will have to find something special to overcome the challenger across the other side of the net.

Alexander Zverev looks to be peaking towards the weekend and he is serving well enough to keep the unseeded player under pressure and eventually the French Open Champion should be able to exploit any mental and physical tiredness felt by Botic Van De Zandschulp to earn a solid Quarter Final win.

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: Fifteen months ago, Qinwen Zheng was the World Number 4 and the young player looked like being the next first time Grand Slam Winner on the WTA Tour.

Injuries have blighted her progress over that time period since entering the top five and that meant Qinwen Zheng entered the US Open as the World Number 121. She could not use a Protected Ranking after rushing back in 2025 to try and take part in Beijing, and that has meant entering the Qualifiers here at the US Open.

Three matches were won to reach the main draw, but Qinwen Zheng has used that momentum to move through the draw with some stunning wins already behind her. Beating Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek would have been considerable achievements anyway, but doing so having recovered from huge deficits within sets played has only added to the sporting drama.

Qinwen Zheng is a confident player and she cannot be dismissed as a threat to win it all from here.

The 23 year old has always been comfortable on the hard courts and she will take added confidence from the fact she has pushed Elena Rybakina twice this season, even if she ultimately did come up short both times.

There is a huge carrot at the end of this Quarter Final match for Elena Rybakina- a win here and she will be guaranteed to become the new World Number 1, although it still feels a matter of time before she reaches the summit of the WTA Rankings. The World Number 2 has clearly been able to focus on the matches as they have come up at the US Open and Elena Rybakina has shown how capable she is of backing up the Australian Open success by picking up another hard court Grand Slam here in New York City.

Winning the Grand Slam will feel more important than the World Ranking and Elena Rybakina showed against Naomi Osaka how effective she can be against some of the other big hitters on the Tour. The serve is a key weapon to create scoreboard pressure and Rybakina has heavy groundstrokes that can push any opponent back behind the baseline, including Qinwen Zheng.

The latter looked to be running close to empty in the gas tank before rallying for a good win over Iga Swiatek in the Fourth Round, but this is another big test for Qinwen Zheng.

She has shown she can stand up to Elena Rybakina, but the amount of tennis that has been played over the last several days cannot be ignored and the higher Ranked player may end up showing off a superior serve, which can pave the way for a place in the Semi Final.

Coco Gauff - 3.5 games v Mirra Andreeva: The former US Open Champion produced a clinical display to beat a young compatriot in the Fourth Round and Coco Gauff will have eyes on winning the title in New York City for a second time, which may also be enough to secure the World Number 1 Ranking for the first time.

By the time she steps onto the court, the Number 1 Ranking may be beyond her for another week and that may actually help Coco Gauff focus all the more in trying to win this Grand Slam.

It has been a strong year in the Majors with Coco Gauff reaching a third Quarter Final at this level and becoming the youngest American player to do that in over twenty years. Ultimately the ambition is to turn one of these runs into a first Grand Slam title since the French Open in June 2025 and Coco Gauff is playing with a huge amount of confidence right now.

Beating Iva Jovic in straight sets means Coco Gauff has won twenty sets in succession on the hard courts as she looks to back up the Cincinnati title by taking home the big prize in New York City on Saturday afternoon. The numbers have been really impressive throughout her time at the US Open and Coco Gauff is also going to take a huge amount of confidence from the fact she has beaten Mirra Andreeva in all five professional matches.

While Coco Gauff is searching for a first Grand Slam title in 2026, Mirra Andreeva is the French Open Champion taking over that title from the player she is facing in the Quarter Final here.

Mirra Andreeva will be the first to admit that she was not at her best in the Fourth Round and the World Number 5 has yet to find the consistency she would like on the hard courts.

Winning four matches here will have given Mirra Andreeva a boost, but her numbers have been declining in each Round compared with the one before and that is not going to cut it against the beloved American standing across the other side of the net.

Serving well is going to be all important for Mirra Andreeva, but she has lost her last five hard court matches against top 20 Ranked opponents and she has not been able to get into return games as much as she would have wanted in those matches either.

These two have not met on the hard courts since the 2023 US Open when Coco Gauff showed she still had too much experience for Mirra Andreeva.

It is a gap that has certainly shrunk now, but Coco Gauff may have a bit more consistency out of the serve and that can ultimately pave the way for another Semi Final spot for the World Number 4.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 27-20, + 3.48 Units (94 Units Staked, + 3.70% Yield)

US Open Day 13 Tennis Pick- Women's Final 2023 (September 9th)

There are no longer hopes of the 'dream' Final in the men's tournament, but we do have two good looking Finals at the US Open to conclude the final Grand Slam event of the 2023 season.

First up is the women's Final between the new World Number 1 and the top American hope and there is every chance the full three sets will be needed when Aryna Sabalenka takes on Coco Gauff.

Aryna Sabalenka v Coco Gauff: It truly felt like it was going to be another Grand Slam Semi Final in which Aryna Sabalenka underperformed as she trailed Madison Keys 0-6, 3-5.

The frustration was clear with Sabalenka urging her coaches to give her a solution to 'another Semi Final' which had gone from bad to worse.

Despite all that, Aryna Sabalenka showed tremendous grit and character fitting of a new World Number 1 when fighting back and eventually beating the American 0-6, 7-6, 7-6 as she moves into her second Grand Slam Final of the year.

Some of the home fans will have been disappointed that they are not getting an all-American Final, but they will be very pleased to see Coco Gauff making her way through to the last women's Singles match of the tournament. All credit has to be given to a young player who has been under immense pressure since breaking onto the Tour and Coco Gauff has shown she can rally from difficult positions to win matches throughout her run to the US Open Final.

Out of the two players, Coco Gauff had the much more straight-forward win in the Semi Final and that could provide an edge when it comes to the gas tank in this Final. However, Aryna Sabalenka had been making serene progress through the draw before that Semi Final win over Madison Keys and having a Grand Slam winning experience compared to Gauff's Runner Up finish might be an advantage for the Belarusian Number 2 Seed.

You have to imagine that Aryna Sabalenka will have the edge on the serve, but Coco Gauff has enjoyed the returning conditions in the tournament.

It will certainly give the home player every chance of winning this Final, although Coco Gauff was well beaten when facing Aryna Sabalenka at Indian Wells. The two players have split four previous hard court matches, while Gauff has a clay court win over Sabalenka, but the Indian Wells win for Aryna Sabalenka was perhaps the most comfortable of their previous hard court matches.

Both have to be commended for the hard court form they have produced, but Aryna Sabalenka's win at the Australian Open can stand her in good stead. Coco Gauff has won eleven matches in a row in Cincinnati and New York City and may feel she is operating at her highest level right now, which is perhaps another reason the oddsmakers are finding it hard to separate the players.

However, the feeling is that Aryna Sabalenka will be a little freer now she has made it through what has been a very difficult Semi Final Round at the Grand Slam. It potentially will take all three sets to end up deciding the new US Open Champion, but the lean is with Aryna Sabalenka, who has a serve that can just produce a few more easy points than Coco Gauff's, which can be vital at the big moments in sets.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka to Win @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 38-36, - 9.34 Units (148 Units Staked, - 6.31% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2021 (September 9th)

Day 11 is reserved for the Women's Semi Finals at the US Open and we should get a couple of good Semi Final matches in the evening session.

It will be two teenagers taking on two players who will feel they are ready to win a Grand Slam and I do think it is going to be a fun watch to see how the matches develop.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Leylah Fernandez: There are always a couple of surprises at Grand Slam events, but Leylah Fernandez' run to the US Open Semi Final might as unexpected as anything we have seen. There was very little sign in her results that Leylah Fernandez was ready to announce herself in the way she has at the US Open and it should mean the youngster is going to be fearless in this Semi Final.

The run to the Semi Final is less of a surprise for the World Number 2 Aryna Sabalenka, but she is going to have to deal with the pressure of expectation. Many have looked for the Belarusian to make a big impact at a Grand Slam having secured some massive results through the year on the Tour, but she is going to have to deal with that sense of expectation and all of the pressure that comes with that.

Aryna Sabalenka should have more experience having reached the Semi Final at Wimbledon and she is playing at a much higher level than Leylah Fernandez with her results backing that up. Wins over Elise Mertens and Barbora Krejcikova in the manner they have been produced will mean Aryna Sabalenka is feeling good about her tennis on these courts and I do think her big game will be very difficult to contain.

You can't underestimate Leylah Fernandez simply because of the players she has beaten in this tournament already, but the numbers rarely lie and the win over Elina Svitolina in the Quarter Final could have easily gone the other way. Wins over Naomi Osaka and Angelique Kerber are impressive too, but those were tight wins for Leylah Fernandez and she has invested a lot of physical and emotional effort in winning in each of the last three Rounds.

That may have an impact on the match, but I also think she is playing an opponent who has looked very confident in New York City and Aryna Sabalenka's big, aggressive game suits these courts very well. The serve has been a big weapon for Aryna Sabalenka, but most impressive has been the return of serve and in four of her five wins in this tournament she has won over 50% of return points played.

I expect that to be the approach for Aryna Sabalenka in this match- she is likely going to be playing on the front foot and that is going to exert a lot of pressure on Leylah Fernandez who had some difficulties dealing with the Elina Svitolina serve in the Quarter Final. This is another step up for the young Canadian and I think Aryna Sabalenka is rightly considered the favourite to win the US Open as she finally places herself in with the elite of the WTA Tour.

At times I do think Leylah Fernandez will frustrate Aryna Sabalenka with her defensive skills, but the power of the Belarusian is going to make the difference and she can produce another big win on Thursday.

Maria Sakkari - 1.5 games v Emma Raducanu: There has to be nothing but respect for the way Emma Raducanu has performed at the US Open and the youngster has nothing to lose and everything to gain over the next few days. She has already surpassed all expectations by reaching the Semi Final of the tournament after coming through the Qualifiers and Emma Raducanu has yet to drop a set in the event.

The manner in which she has remained focused even when suffering a few nerves early in matches is impressive and the win over Belinda Bencic in the Quarter Final is the best result Emma Raducanu has had in the tournament. It was also the closest match she has played and Raducanu got the better of the big points as she was able to see off the Olympic Champion.

Emma Raducanu clearly has a lot going for her and she is a player that has a decent serve and backs that up with some aggressive groundstrokes. The consistency in her tennis means it is going to take a serious effort to beat her, but Maria Sakkari has to believe she has the game to do that after a massively impressive performance in her own Quarter Final win.

The Greek player has reached a Grand Slam Semi Final for the second time this season and her experience at the French Open should stand her in good stead. Maria Sakkari has had some impressive wins of her own in this tournament and she was completely in control of her Quarter Final win over Karolina Pliskova with the serve being a particularly big weapon for her.

You do have to wonder if the Sakkari return is good enough to win this Grand Slam, but it has been pretty consistent so far in New York City. She has also played well on the hard courts in 2021, although there had been little from her summer hard court tennis to suggest that Maria Sakkari was going to be ready to have a run like this one.

Her performances have been at a good level at this tournament though and this is a match that feels like it is going to be very close. I can't underestimate Emma Raducanu considering how well she has played over the last two weeks and this is very much a winnable match for her if she continues to play the big points as well as she has throughout the tournament.

Both players are going to be relying on the serve to keep them in a positive position and I do think that shot is going to determine the direction of the match. The experience of Roland Garros should help Maria Sakkari too and she was very close to beating Barbora Krejcikova who eventually won the title in Paris.

This should be a fun match and I think the narrow lean has to be with Maria Sakkari, although Emma Raducanu has shown she should be underestimated at your peril.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 34-30, - 1.14 Units (127 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

US Open Day 10 Tennis Picks 2020 (September 9th)

Four of the eight Semi Finalists at the US Open were decided on Tuesday and the remaining players that will make the last four of the Men's and Women's events will be confirmed over the course of Day 10 at Flushing Meadows.

Some of the star power has been missing at this Grand Slam, but the quality of the matches and the drama has kept the interest going with a number of matches going the distance.

While the two Men's Quarter Finals were better in terms of intrigue than the two Women's Quarter Finals on Day 9, I do think we will see something of a reversal on Wednesday. Both Women's matches look like they could be very competitive, while we have two strong favourites in the Men's Quarter Finals to come.


My last standing Outright Pick will be in action today and a win for Daniil Medvedev would at least secure that selection as spot in the quiet 'Winner's Enclosure'.

I am looking to use the momentum of the Day 9 selections to take me through the remainder of this tournament beginning with the Picks to be made for the remaining Quarter Final matches.


Dominic Thiem - 6.5 games v Alex De Minaur: After reaching the Australian Open Final earlier in the year Dominic Thiem will feel comfortable on the hard courts. Over the last twelve months he has shown a real affinity for the surface having previously played his best tennis on the clay courts, while the Austrian is now the highest Seeded player left at the US Open in the Men's draw.

He might not have a better chance to win a Grand Slam with the big three all out of the tournament for various reasons and Dominic Thiem will feel largely happy with the Quarter Final match up in front of him. That is no disrespect to Alex De Minaur, but the Australian isn't someone who is going to take the racquet out of Thiem's hands and ultimately it feels like a match in which it is the World Number 3's to lose.

They have met twice before and both in a best of five set situation and it is Dominic Thiem who has won both and only dropped a single set in that time. One of those wins came at the US Open in straight sets and there has been a real discrepancy between their respective abilities to hold serve.

The last of those matches was just under two years ago so the head to head might not be relevant, but you do have to favour Dominic Thiem's serve out of the two in this Quarter Final.

He has been producing some very strong numbers throughout the tournament and that has sparked Thiem's return game with the confidence that his own serve is going to hold up. The return on the hard courts has not been the most productive over the last twelve months, but Dominic Thiem has been strong on that side of his game at the US Open and created at least ten break points in each of the matches played here.

I don't think you can underestimate Alex De Minaur who has played some of his best tennis on this surface, and the Australian does have a 3-3 record on this surface against top ten Ranked opponents over the last twelve months. That is a record that needs some respect, but you also have to accept that his 75% hold rate and 19% break rate in those matches also suggests that he might struggle to stay with Dominic Thiem over the best of five sets format.

A couple of the sets could be really competitive, but I do think Thiem will eventually begin to gain control here and that should set him up for the win and the cover. It won't be easy as I have mentioned, but I can see a set being won with a couple of breaks of serve and that should send Thiem on his way to the cover of this mark.


Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 games v Andrey Rublev: This all Russian Quarter Final has all the makings of a match that could be seen regularly at the back end of Grand Slam tournaments in the coming years. Both Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev have both made impacts at this level in the past, but the winner of this match may feel they can go all the way and win a maiden Grand Slam which could be the spark their career will need.

These two will be well versed with each other, but Rublev will have something to prove having been dominated by his compatriot in their previous professional matches. Andrey Rublev will have to come out and show that he is not intimidated or still looking up to Daniil Medvedev and that will at least give him a chance.

Over the last twelve months both players have been stellar performers on the hard courts with the highlight being Medvedev's run to the Final at the US Open. The two players have strong serves and very good returns, although it may be something of a surprise to note that Andrey Rublev has the slightly superior numbers on that side of the court.

However those numbers have taken a serious dent when Andrey Rublev has faced up to top 20 and top 10 Ranked opponents on the surface in that time span.

And in their three previous matches against one another on the hard courts, Andrey Rublev has held serve in 55% of service games played compared with Daniil Medvedev's 87% mark and that could be another big difference between them on the day.

Daniil Medvedev has the stronger numbers when he matches up with the better players on the Tour on the hard courts and I do think he deserves a significant edge in the match. Both players have played really well at Flushing Meadows over the last ten days, but Medvedev definitely feels like he is at a higher level of the two in this Quarter Final and I think he makes the big moves at the big moments to move through to another Semi Final behind a strong statement win.


Tsvetana Pironkova-Serena Williams over 19.5 games: Even at her best you wouldn't really have put Tsvetana Pironkova down as one of the top players on the WTA Tour and that feeling is underlined by the fact she has never cracked the top 30 of the World Rankings.

There had been flashes, most notably when she reached the Semi Final and then Quarter Final in back to back years at Wimbledon, but the Bulgarian holds a losing record at both the Australian Open and US Open before this year's tournament.

She arrived at Flushing Meadows on a Protected Ranking as Pironkova had left the Tour to start a family over three years ago and I don't think anyone outside of her closest circle would have expected the kind of run she has put together. Wins over Garbine Muguruza, Donna Vekic and Alize Cornet have to be admired and especially more so as Pironkova has only dropped a single set in the last three Rounds as the quality of opposition has improved.

Now she has to raise her level again to take on Serena Williams who has needed three sets to see off Sloane Stephens and Maria Sakkari in the last two Rounds. The American is still walking onto the court with an aura around her, but many players are also looking beyond that now and it does mean Serena Williams has been pushed very hard in the last couple of matches here.

Her poor form ahead of the US Open will have raised some doubts and it doesn't feel like Williams has been peaking into this tournament as she would have liked. The serve remains a big weapon, but Tsvetana Pironkova will feel she is returning well enough to at least try and put some pressure on Williams even if in their past matches there has been little sign of the Bulgarian being able to do that for a long enough period to win the match.

Much of this one may depend on how well Pironkova serves as Serena has had one or two difficulties getting good enough reads against her last couple of opponents. In the last twelve months there has been a decline in Williams' returning numbers and so the belief is that a strong serving day from Tsvetana Pironkova may give her an opportunity to keep her dream run going through another Round.

Personally I think it will be difficult for Pironkova to do that over two hours, but I do think she can make at least one of the sets played very competitive and that could see the total games market surpassed. If she can win at least five games in one of the sets being competed, the total games line could be overcome even in a two set defeat and I think Pironkova is playing well enough to do that.

Serena Williams is still very difficult to oppose and has the capability of blowing someone off the court when at her best, but we haven't really seen enough of that in this tournament. I think that will make this a tighter match than some may expect in the first match to go out on Arthur Ashe on Day 10.


Elise Mertens v Victoria Azarenka: The last of the Women's Quarter Final matches looks like being a really good one, but I am not sure Victoria Azarenka has been playing well enough to warrant being a favourite over Elise Mertens.

First the disclaimer- I know Azarenka won the title here at the end of August on the eve of the US Open beginning, while she has already beaten three players Ranked in the top 53 at this tournament too. Those are impressive results, and I do think Victoria Azarenka is going to be feeling very good about her overall game heading into this Quarter Final.

Victoria Azarenka is a twice beaten Finalist at the US Open so clearly enjoys playing here, but before this tournament she had not been beyond the Third Round at any of the last seven Grand Slams she has been competing in. Since returning from becoming a mother, Azarenka has also struggled with her consistency and she is going to need all of that and more to beat a very strong defensive player like Elise Mertens who can also be very good when she starts becoming an aggressive player on the court too.

That balance makes the Belgian a very dangerous customer and you can't doubt how well Mertens was playing when reaching the Semi Final in the same tournament that Azarenka eventually went on to win. Her overall levels have been higher than those that Azarenka has reached and I do think Mertens is someone who deserves to be the favourite and not the underdog in this match.

Elise Mertens has been playing with consistency at the US Open and I do think her win over Sofia Kenin and the manner it came about is arguably the most impressive that either of these players has produced.

My one concern about Mertens is that she has not really competed very well with the top players of the WTA Tour on this surface. Over the last twelve months she had a 1-7 record on the surface against top 20 Ranked players before the win over Australian Open Champion Sofia Kenin in the Fourth Round and Victoria Azarenka is certainly playing well enough to be given a lot of respect.

However, I do think Elise Mertens has the kind of game to extract errors from Victoria Azarenka over the course of this match and I simply have to back her as the underdog in this situation.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tsvetana Pironkova-Serena Williams Over 19.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elise Mertens @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

US Open Update: 39-33, + 1.93 Units (144 Units Staked, + 1.34% Yield)

US Open Day 14 Picks 2018- Men's Final (September 9th)

The last day of the US Open is headlined by the men's Final and this year it will be going up against the powerhouse of Week 1 in the NFL season.

At least the tournament organisers have a decent enough Final on their hands but the casual fans may have been more tempted to tune in if Rafael Nadal had made it past Juan Martin Del Potro to face Novak Djokovic instead.

Del Potro is a popular figure at Flushing Meadows and is only playing in his second Grand Slam Final which is remarkable to think, even when counting up the huge injury problems he has had in his career. On the other side of the court Djokovic doesn't seem to have the same connection with the crowd in New York and that was evident with the fans seemingly much more behind Kei Nishikori in their Semi Final match on Friday.


Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: It is strange to think it has almost been ten years since Juan Martin Del Potro won the US Open and looked set to be someone who would challenge the likes of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray for the biggest prizes in the sport. The 'Tower of Tandil' beat both Nadal and Federer on his way to the Grand Slam success, but a wrist injury has bothered very soon after that success in New York and the career has been something of a stop-start one.

Del Potro is now back in a major Final for the first time since 2009 which is still a surprise considering how well he has played over the last couple of years. The wrist will never be 100% like it once was, but Del Potro looks stronger on both wings these days and he has beaten the big names throughout his career although not always been able to put it together over the best of five set format.

Winning the US Open would be a huge achievement for Del Potro but standing in his way is Wimbledon Champion Novak Djokovic who is rounding back into the kind of form that saw him dominate men's tennis a few years ago. Without a doubt there is still some room for improvement for Djokovic, but winning two of the four Grand Slams in 2018 will make him believe and I think he may be able to kick on and finish the year as the World Number 1 as well as being the favourite going into the Slams in 2019 (at least the three played off the clay courts).

Both players have been in very good form in the US Open, but Novak Djokovic is backing up a title win in Cincinnati which is going to give him plenty of confidence to take into the Final.

You have to respect Del Potro simply because of the power he brings to the court and the ability he has to hit through any opponent. Even the slower surface in New York in 2018 has not bothered him and a big serving display will put Djokovic under some pressure considering he has not faced someone with this power so far in the draw.

It has been a kind path set out for Djokovic, but he has been very comfortable in the whole tournament and that is after dealing with the heat which has been his downfall in years gone by. This time Djokovic should be playing in conditions which are very favourable to him and I do think he will prove too good for a player he has dominated the head to head against.

They haven't met for almost eighteen months so the head to head is not completely relevant in this case. However I do think Djokovic is in superb form at the moment and he should have enough to wear down Del Potro although I am anticipating a real battle between these players.

Djokovic needs to keep serving as well as he has in the tournament so far as he won't want to give Del Potro too many reasons to build momentum behind him. doing that should give Djokovic the chance to try and attack the Del Potro serve and I do like the former World Number 1 to get closer to reclaiming his place at the top of men's tennis with a second Grand Slam to put in the 2018 trophy cabinet.

I can't take anything away from how well Del Potro has been playing here and I would love to see him win a second Grand Slam title. The big man is very capable on his day and I would not be surprised if he was able to take a set in this one but I can't see him getting much more from Djokovic who should have enough to just edge past him in four competitive sets and I think that will be enough for him to cover the number too.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 26-21, + 7.76 Units (84 Units Staked, + 9.24% Yield)

NFL Week 1 Picks 2018 (September 6-10)

It feels like the stunning Super Bowl won by Philadelphia over New England was only a few days ago, but the 2018 NFL season is ready to kick off this Thursday.

Looking at the way the off-season panned out, it looks like the usual contenders are going to be right up there fighting for the Championship and I do think this NFL season looks a fascinating one without any team being head and shoulders above the rest.

Some Divisions will be dominated by familiar names (see the AFC East for example), while other teams have gone all in to make sure they compete in what look to be small windows.

All in all it makes for a fascinating season.

My NFL Picks will now have between 5-7 games analysed each week with the remaining Picks placed in the 'MY PICKS' section at the bottom of the page.

I will also make selections for every game although some will be zero unit picks.

On one or two occasions during the course of a long season I may not be able to write up full analysis of my Picks but simply create a thread with the Picks written up. That's just something to keep in mind in a long season which can hit busy periods in my personal life, but hopefully it will still be a winning season regardless.

In most weeks I will add the Thursday Night Football first and then come back and add the selections from the Sunday and Monday offerings. That will be the case with Week 1 too as the defending Super Bowl Champions kick the new season off.


Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: The defending Super Bowl Champions upset the odds to win the Championship at the beginning of 2018 after seeing Carson Wentz go down with a season ending injury. No one had a lot of faith in Nick Foles to guide the Number 1 Seed in the NFC all the way, but Foles had two stunning performances against the Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots to help the Eagles secure the Super Bowl and it is Foles who will get to make the start in Week 1 for Philadelphia.

Foles plays as Wentz is not quite ready to go despite suffering no setback in his recovery from the ACL injury that ended his 2017 season prematurely. It wasn't the best pre-season for Foles, but I don't think that is a major worry for Philadelphia, although the overall injuries the team come into the new season with is more of a concern.

Alshon Jeffrey is expected to miss out which means the Eagles miss their Number 1 Wide Out, while Foles was also banged up in pre-season before being named as the starter in Week 1. The absence of Jeffrey is a blow for Philadelphia and Foles whose struggles in the Play Off win over the Atlanta Falcons will not have been completely erased by how well he played against Minnesota and New England.

The Eagles do have a strong Offensive Line who will protect Foles, but Atlanta are a team who look to have a Defensive unit that can limit what the home team are able to do in this one. There have been some losses from the Defense that held the Eagles to 15 points in their Play Off defeat, but the Falcons will believe they have not been significantly weakened and facing a banged up Philadelphia Offensive unit should be something Atlanta can have success against.

Atlanta will be expecting to have some revenge from the Play Off defeat having come so close to winning that game at Lincoln Field when Julio Jones almost made a play in the End Zone on Fourth Down that would likely have won the game for the Falcons. Jones has been held out of pre-season so he should be healthy to compete and the Falcons continue to have one of the better Offensive units on paper.

Matt Ryan may not be in the upper echelon of Quarter Backs, but he is surrounded by significant Offensive playmakers and Atlanta may have gotten even stronger this year. The Quarter Back is well protected by a very good Offensive Line and the likes of Jones, Muhammed Sanu and Calvin Ridley give Ryan plenty of passing options.

Both Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman give Ryan strong Running Back options too and both of those players are also able to sneak out of the backfield and make plays as Receivers too. It does bode well for a team that know their Stadium will be hosting the Super Bowl next February and the Falcons do look strong enough on both sides of the ball to challenge, but Ryan will have to help the team score more than 10 points if they are going to win here.

He will know the Philadelphia aggressive Defensive unit is going to pose some big problems for the whole Offensive unit and that could be a key to the outcome of this Week 1 game. Jim Schwartz has gotten plenty out of his Philadelphia Defense and this is one of the premier units in the NFL again which makes it a fascinating contest.

Picking Schwartz to outmanoeuvre Steve Sarkisian won't be a big surprise to anyone who saw the latter Coaching at the end of the 2017 season and it does make this pick 'em game hard to call. You can make a real case for both Atlanta and Philadelphia in this opening game of the 2018 season and I think it will be a very close game like their Play Off game turned out to be.

There is some surprise that the Falcons are the underdog having been the favourite to win on this field back in January, especially as Philadelphia look a little more banged up than the road team. That almost was enough to lean me towards backing the road team, but Schwartz versus Sarkisian in the Co-Ordinator battle put me off with the former considerably further along and likely to get the better of things overall.

What does spring out is that points might be a struggle for both teams against quality Defensive units that will pursue the ball with aggression. Turnovers could quickly make a mockery of this pick, but it was a low-scoring affair when they met in the Play Off and that could be the case in Week 1 too. The line has been drifting down from the opening of 47 points, but I will still look for a low-scoring game thanks to strong Defensive performances preventing the surpassing of the current line.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The NFC South looks like being one of the toughest Divisions to call in the NFL with three good looking teams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers making up the four in the Division. That might be a little harsh on the Buccaneers, but they are missing Jameis Winston for the next three games at Quarter Back and they are some way behind the other three teams in the Division with an opening game in the raucous SuperDome a tough test for any in the NFL.

Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the keys to the Offense for the Buccaneers in the absence of Winston and there have been times when he has looked like a serviceable Quarter Back. He is still hard to trust though and the Tampa Bay Offensive Line will be in for a challenge when they take on an improved New Orleans Defensive unit whose younger players have a year of experience under their belt now.

Last season the Saints really managed to get into a position to rush the Quarter Back and I think that is a big problem for Ryan Fitzpatrick to deal with. He does have the big body of Mike Evans to find, but New Orleans will feel they have the Secondary to at least limit his production and shut down some of the other weapons Tampa Bay will be looking to rely upon.

Tampa Bay will try and establish the run to at least protect Fitzpatrick and perhaps even keep the vaunted New Orleans Offense on the sidelines, but they will need to get more out of their new look Offensive Line. It will still be a challenge against the Saints to establish Ronald Jones as the rookie is likely to make the start for the Buccaneers against a Defensive Line which was pretty decent against the run in 2017 and could be even better this year.

Scoring points doesn't look like being a major problem for New Orleans who have Drew Brees at Quarter Back for another couple of years after signing an extension in the off-season. Brees is still a very good Quarter Back, but it was the balance the Offense had last season which made the big difference for how well the Saints played in 2017.

Alvin Kamara was a revelation for New Orleans and I don't think they will miss Mark Ingram who is suspended for four games to open the season. He was a big reason the New Orleans Saints were able to run the ball as effectively as they did a year ago, but it is Kamara's ability in the open field which makes him so dangerous and the best safety blanket Brees has had since Darren Sproles moved on.

The balance makes Brees that much more dangerous when he does drop back to pass as he can open things up with play-action. The Wide Receivers in New Orleans continue to make big plays for the Quarter Back and the Offensive Line looks like it could be as good as they were in 2017.

With that Offensive Line I think the new additions Tampa Bay have brought in like Jason Pierre-Paul and Vinny Curry might not have the kind of impact we will see from them later in the season. Keeping those players just half a step behind the plays with the balance the Saints can put together Offensively means Tampa Bay could have a tough time slowing down New Orleans in this one.

The Buccaneers were blown out here a year ago, but this is a big number and Fitzpatrick is the ultimate back door covering Quarter Back in these situations. For some real he can make the big plays when virtually nothing is on the line which is a worry for me, especially as the Saints run a 'bend, don't break' kind of system but it still looks a tough ask for the Buccaneers.

Last season the Saints did cover in all three home Divisional games and I think they are a little too good on both sides of the ball for this Tampa Bay team and can produce a big win in Week 1.


Remaining Week 1 Picks below.

MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles-Atlanta Falcons Under 44.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers + 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 7 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
New York Jets + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

College Football Week 2 Picks 2017 (September 9th)

I have been away for a few days which means I always had a feeling that the College Football Week 2 Picks post would be one where I would not be able to break down the games as I would usually like.

That will change in time for Week 3, but for now you can see the picks from Week 2 below

The NFL Week 1 Picks should at least have a better breakdown, and they should be out either on Saturday evening or Sunday a few hours before the bulk of the games get underway.


MY PICKS: Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners + 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Minnesota Golden Gophers + 3 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Washington State Cougars - 10 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

US Open Tennis Day 13 Picks 2017- Women's Final (September 9th)

The women's Final at the US Open is the end of what has been a very good tournament for that side of the tennis world. The most memorable matches from the US Open this season have been contested by the women and the Final has every chance of being another really good match.

The men's Final was also set on Friday as the two favourites won their respective Semi Final matches. Rafael Nadal and Kevin Anderson have a day of rest before the Final which will be played on Sunday as the final Grand Slam of 2017 comes to a close.


Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Sloane Stephens: There are going to be plenty of nerves ahead of the women's Final for both Madison Keys and Sloane Stephens who will be playing in their maiden Grand Slam Final on Saturday. Both will know this could potentially be the start of a number of Slams won if they can make the breakthrough on Saturday and that makes for an interesting Final.

Two American players in the Final should also mean a fantastic atmosphere inside Arthur Ashe Stadium.

There have been plenty of matches in the women's draw that have been highly competitive, particularly over the last week, but Sloane Stephens has been involved in more than Madison Keys. Stephens has won third set deciders in each of her last three matches and the last two have gone almost the distance both times.

It has not been the same for Keys who has had back to back dominant wins over Kaia Kanepi and Coco Vandeweghe which has to be giving her a lot of confidence. The serve has been working wonderfully well and Keys has to feel that another strong serving day will give her enough of an edge to see off Stephens who has to be feeling the amount of tennis she has had to play.

Emotionally Stephens has invested a lot and I have to think at some point that is going to be a factor for her. Whether she can use the adrenaline to get through another match is up for debate, especially as her own serve has been one that players have been able to attack and earn breaks. Having to continue to come back against someone serving as well as Keys would be a big ask for Stephens, particularly has Keys has been returning so well in her last couple of matches.

The return is not as good as it should be, but Keys has earned a lot of confidence from the way she has played on that side of her game over the last couple of matches. I think that can carry over to this match and I do think Keys is the one player who has had all the tools to be a Grand Slam Champion in the making and can fulfil her ambition in the US Open Final.

It is a big number of games to cover when you think of the fight Stephens has shown as well as how competitive the women's matches have been over the last week. However I think Keys is playing about as well as she can and looks to have peaked at the right time for the US Open Final and I think she can work her way to a 7-5, 6-4 win here.

MY PICKS: Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

US Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2016 (September 9th)

The women's Final was being put together on Day 11, but on Day 12 it is the turn of the men as we get to see two quality looking Semi Final matches.

All four men left in the draw have to feel they have some chance of winning the title in Flushing Meadows, although Novak Djokovic is going to be the clear favourite. No one really knows how healthy the World Number 1 is as he has barely needed to win matches to get into the Semi Final, while the two men in the other Semi Final have both had big Grand Slam wins over Djokovic in the past.

The Wild Card is Gael Monfils who is playing well enough to win the tournament, but who has not played a lot of these big Grand Slam matches with this being just the second Grand Slam Semi Final he will have played.


Gael Monfils + 2.5 sets v Novak Djokovic: I don't remember the last time there would have been a run like this in a Grand Slam where a Semi Finalist has only won two completed matches to get into this Round. Novak Djokovic has had a couple of injury worries heading into the tournament, but he has openly admitted he is glad to have been given the help of one walkover and two retirements to aid him through the draw.

We simply don't know how Djokovic is feeling with the suggestions he would not have played this tournament if it had not been a Grand Slam event. He has yet to be truly tested but there have been signs that his serve is still a problem for the World Number 1 and I do think Djokovic is at his most vulnerable in any Grand Slam event he has played in recent years.

While I have no doubt that whoever awaits in the Final would not be overawed by Djokovic and the challenge he brings, Gael Monfils is a different story. The Frenchman is arguably playing the best tennis of his career, but he is in just a second Semi Final at this level and the first since the French Open in 2008. He has played in a Quarter Final at the Australian Open this season and it was only a couple of years ago that Monfils was 2-0 up in sets against Roger Federer before missing match points and going down in five sets in the Quarter Final.

Monfils has been serving well but has to accept that Djokovic is going to get more balls back in play than any other player on the Tour. He can't let that frustrate him while Monfils can take advantage of the Djokovic serve if there are still some troubles on that shot for the favourite.

That serve has been broken in every match he has played beyond one set in this tournament and Monfils should be stronger than when they met in the Semi Final in Toronto. That match came after Monfils had won the tournament in Washington in the week prior to Toronto so fatigue might have played a big part in the way that match went down as the Monfils second serve was dismantled by Djokovic.

While he has spent more time on court, Monfils should be fresher for this match than in the Toronto Semi Final having come through with the confidence of winning every match without dropping a set. He has given Djokovic trouble when producing his absolute best on the court and Monfils is close to that level while the doubts about Djokovic's fitness could also play a part in this Semi Final.

All things considered, Monfils looks a big price to simply win a set in this one and I will be looking for him to do so.


Stan Wawrinka v Kei Nishikori: The second Semi Final looks like another where you can get the popcorn out and look forward to a match with plenty of big shots and drama involved. Both players have had to come through difficult Quarter Final matches and their previous matches have been competitive which makes this is a tough one to pick the winner from between Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori.

I have to say I am a little surprised that it is Nishikori who has been set as the favourite as I actually thought Wawrinka would be the favourite when the Semi Final was put together. Yes, Nishikori beat him in Cincinnati and also two years ago at the US Open, but between those matches there was a really straightforward win for Wawrinka at the Australian Open.

The Swiss player does have the heavier groundstrokes, but I think Nishikori is the more consistent player of the two which makes this a very intriguing match. If Wawrinka is feeling the ball off his racquet as he was against Juan Martin Del Potro, he is going to be tough to stop at the business end of a Grand Slam tournament and my lean is that he is peaking at the right time.

Two years ago we saw Nishikori dig deep until he had nothing left by the time he reached the Final here. He has not been pushed outside of the match against Andy Murray, but I don't think you can look to any physical issues to prevent Nishikori finding his best tennis. His win over Wawrinka in Cincinnati will boost the confidence, but I think Wawrinka is in stronger form at this moment than he was a couple of weeks ago.

I also think the Nishikori serve can be vulnerable at this level of tennis and I do feel there are enough factors to back the underdog in this one. You can't always tell which Wawrinka will turn up day to day, but he has looked like he is more focused after coming close to exiting the tournament against Daniel Evans last week and I do think he can win this one outright and move into another Grand Slam Final.

The keys for Wawrinka will be to serve well and use patience on the court to curb the unforced errors that Nishikori will feed off. There will be times that Nishikori gets into the zone, but punishing the serve will put more pressure on the Japanese player and I think Wawrinka is capable of doing that in a four set win.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils + 2.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 37-37, + 5.86 Units (140 Units Staked, + 4.19% Yield)

US Open Day 10 Picks 2015 (September 9th)

The Semi Final line up is going to be set on Wednesday as we get down to the last few days at the US Open.

I have been writing this before the last two Quarter Finals on Tuesday are played, but if the first two Quarter Finals are anything to go by, the last few days at the US Open are going to be filled with drama.

There is still a lot of inconsistent play out there as players create break point chances and fail to take them and it really has been a Grand Slam full of some strange results and performances. Players aren't just going up and down from Round to Round, but they aren't able to maintain any kind of level within matches, unless you are talking about the three or four players that most expected to reach the Final.

Kristina Mladenovic was feeling the pressure of the heat and first time Quarter Finalist, but she has to be kicking herself about how she played when the break points came her way against Roberta Vinci. While I give the Italian credit, the match was on the racquet of Mladenovic and some of her shot selections were very poor.

The first time Quarter Finalist at this level was always going to have to prepare mentally for the occasion, but Vinci had bad memories of losing twice in this Round convincingly and Mladenovic failed to push the pressure onto her by taking the chances that came her way.


The US Open reigning Men's Champion is still in the draw as Marin Cilic tried his best to give the match away to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga after being pulled back from two sets down despite having three match points. The wasted energy in having to spend almost two hours more on court than necessary might come back to haunt him when it comes to the Semi Finals, although the one benefit for Cilic is that those Semi Finals are not until Friday and he does have ample recovery time.


Stan Wawrinka-Kevin Anderson Over 42.5 Total Games: Anyone who saw the Kevin Anderson win over Andy Murray had to be impressed with the skills the big South African showed throughout the four sets.

Everyone knows Anderson has a monster serve, but he was winning so many of the extended rallies and showing exceptional touch at the net where he surprised Andy Murray and most spectators. The backhand didn't break down as expected and Anderson was well worthy of his place in the last eight of a Grand Slam for the first time in his career.

Now he has to beat another two time Grand Slam Champion when he faces Stan Wawrinka, and I don't imagine this is a match up that holds too many fears for Anderson. That will be because Anderson has won the last four matches against Wawrinka and has managed to win the big points at the key times to do that.

It took two tie-breakers at Queens, but Anderson got it done and he also won very tight matches in Cincinnati and Paris Masters last year. I can see why he is a problem for Wawrinka as the latter isn't the best returner out there and Anderson can dictate things behind serve, while also taking his shots at the huge number of second serves he generally gets to see.

In the last four matches against one another, all Anderson wins, Wawrinka has only surpassed 52% of first serves going in once and that allows Anderson to have a real look at breaking. He hasn't really been able to do that too many times in his wins over Wawrinka, but even in the tie-breaker it is these small points that decide matches and has been a key for Kevin Anderson.

Anderson has won five of the last six tie-breakers these two have played against one another which seems to back up the fact he can take a big swing on the second serve ball which helps him breakthrough the Wawrinka defences.

This does look like it will be another tight match and anyone backing Wawrinka has to be aware of that head to head against Anderson and the tight matches he has lost. However, Anderson has to mentally pick himself up from arguably the biggest win of his career to date and so picking a winner in the match is a little difficult.

However, a tight match looks to be on the cards and I think this match could easily surpass this number of games with the expectation it will go at least four sets and deep sets at that. Since the beginning of 2014, Anderson and Wawrinka have met four times in best of three set matches and the total games have been 30, 25, 38 and 26 games and only two of those matches have gone the distance.

If this goes four sets, it would be a surprise if this number of games isn't surpassed and I would certainly not expect either player to win this in straights.


Roger Federer - 7.5 Games v Richard Gasquet: Richard Gasquet is back in the Quarter Finals at the US Open for the second time in three years and he will be looking to match his run to the Semi Final at Wimbledon by winning this match.

That will be far from easy against Roger Federer who has been in imperious form since returning at Cincinnati and clearly has been irritated by Gasquet's second ever win over him.

Gasquet beat Roger Federer in three sets at the Rome Masters in 2011, but it has been back to normality since then with six straight defeats to him. The nature of those set scores suggests Federer has meant business against Gasquet though as Federer has won all eleven sets played in those six wins and the Frenchman has only got to four games three times.

The slower conditions on Ashe should see Federer dictate the points in this Quarter Final for the most part and I think it is going to be tough for Gasquet to stop the World Number 2 running away with this match. Federer has been serving well, but his return has been on point as shown by the number of break points he created against John Isner.

It has been an impressive week from Gasquet too, but the level rises considerably for him in this Quarter Final and it is hard to see what kind of impact he can have on the Federer game. If Gasquet serves exceptionally well it will be difficult for Federer to get over this number of games, but I expect the Number 2 Seed to have the chances to do that.

Federer has dominated Gasquet in recent matches and this has the hallmarks of a 63, 63, 64 kind of win for the 17 time Grand Slam Champion.


Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 games v Simona Halep: It is going to take some kind of special recovery from Simona Halep to really compete in this match effectively after almost limping through a win over Sabine Lisicki. Where the German is extremely generous when it comes to unforced errors and handing over games like Christmas presents, Victoria Azarenka will be clinical and consistent.

The only issue for Azarenka fans has been the up and down nature of her performances within matches and she can encourage opponents back into matches she is seemingly in control of. That was partly the reason the likes of Angelique Kerber, Varvara Lepchenko and Yanina Wickmayer have pushed Azarenka so hard in the tournament, but you have to think the focus will be much better against the World Number 2.

It will have to be better because Halep is a dangerous customer that is capable of making a quick recovery from injuries that look to be ending her time in a tournament. That was proved in Cincinnati having barely got through against the likes of Andrea Petkovic and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova before crushing Jelena Jankovic the next day and pushing Serena Williams in the Final.

Halep works hard and is capable of wearing down lesser players, but any lingering issue will be exposed by Azarenka who has the consistency to keep her moving around the court. The left thigh issue will take something away from the Halep serve too and Azarenka has the capability of punishing her more than the likes of Lisicki can think about.

Something of a surprise to me is that Azarenka hasn't reached a Grand Slam Semi Final since competing in the Final here in 2013, a run of seven Slams, but I expect that to change after a 75, 63 win in this Quarter Final.


Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games v Flavia Pennetta: This is surprisingly the first time that Petra Kvitova has reached the Quarter Final at the US Open and she has backed up her win in New Haven in the best possible way. In fact this is the furthest Kvitova has gone in any Grand Slam event since winning the Wimbledon title for a second time in 2014 and she is certainly a dangerous opponent know she is here.

Any fears about the mono illness look to be behind Kvitova and she has been on the right side of the winner/unforced error ratio in her last two matches which will give her confidence. Kvitova opens proceedings on Arthur Ashe Court on Wednesday and the biggest factor in the match might actually be handling the conditions rather than Flavia Pennetta who made it clear after her win over Sam Stosur that she would rather face Johanna Konta than Kvitova.

To be fair to the Italian, that is hardly something to criticise her for as that makes sense, but Pennetta has lost three matches in a row against Kvitova and will have to serve very well to remain competitive in this one. Pennetta is sure to be aided by some wayward errors that have been a feature of Kvitova's high risk tennis approach, but the World Number 4 has been serving well all week and that is keeping the pressure on her opponents.

If Kvitova is serving well, Pennetta is going to feel the pressure to hold her own serve, which is an effective shot, and I just think the slower conditions will give Kvitova time to tee off on the return. An in-form Kvitova makes a lot of balls back with plenty of pace and power behind them and Pennetta will have a tough time getting those back effectively which should give the Czech player the chance to dictate rallies.

I am not sure how many extended rallies there will be with the way Kvitova plays and it might be tough for Pennetta to just stay with her. I like the way the Italian plays, but the power difference between her and Kvitova should see the latter eventually crack through the defences and record a 63, 64 win while booking her first ever US Open Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka-Kevin Anderson Over 42.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 34-31, + 1.45 Units (129 Units Staked, + 1.12% Yield)

US Open Men's Final Pick 2013- Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal (September 9th)

It was a fascinating Final between Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka yesterday and I am expecting no less from Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal in the men's Final which will take place on Monday afternoon.

Both players will have their supporters in this one and those that backed Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic at the start of the tournament would have a chance to lay off their units, although I am still of the belief that Nadal will come out on top in this one.


Whenever I have watched Rafael Nadal in the last two weeks, I have been impressed with his performances and I  have been reminded of the way he blitzed his way through the draw in 2010 when he won his sole US Open title. In that Final, Rafael Nadal took care of a tired Novak Djokovic in four sets and it will be interesting to see how the World Number 1 responds to his five set match against Stanislas Wawrinka on Saturday afternoon.

Wawrinka gave Djokovic almost everything he could handle and we saw a flat Djokovic come out in the Wimbledon Final off a similar rest period back in July- if he is lacking intensity in this one, he will be given a torrid time by someone like Nadal that will play every point hard and who will not give the Serb an easy way into the match.

Like in 2010, Nadal has looked very effective behind his serve and he is playing with an aggression that could break through the Djokovic defences in this one. The World Number 1 has lost a number of big matches since winning the Grand Slam at the Australian Open last January and that is making it hard for me to shake the belief that Nadal will prove too strong.

However, Djokovic is probably the best fighter on the Tour when things are going against him and he should really have beaten Nadal at the French Open earlier this season, but that loss coupled with the one in Montreal means the Spaniard has begun to get the better of this rivalry again.

The extra aggression that Nadal has shown, plus the protection of his own serve being stronger in the tournament means I have a feeling he will prove too good for Djokovic and win his second Grand Slam since returning to the Tour in February.

If Djokovic's backhand is working, it could be another close match between these two, but that shot has not been at its best in the tournament so far and unless there is a marked improvement in this one then it is hard to see the Serb come through. I hope we see another good Final between the two, but I believe it will be decided in four sets in favour of Rafael Nadal.


MY PICK: Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)

US Open Update: 29-39, - 11.22 Units (114 Units Staked, - 9.84% Yield)

NFL Week 1 Picks 2013 (September 5-9)

The NFL is back and I guess when you get older, the faster time flies as I feel it was just last weekend I was cheering on the Baltimore Ravens to knock off the San Francisco 49ers.

Baltimore winning the Super Bowl really did come out of left-field having come so close during the years, but I wasn't convinced Joe Flacco was going to lead them to a title while the Defense was getting older. However, Baltimore really put it together in the final month of the season and, along with some divine intervention in that game at Denver in the Play Offs, helped them win the title, although things have certainly changed her in the off-season.

The last few seasons have shown how difficult it is to make season long predictions with teams getting hot in the final few weeks of the regular season and using that momentum to go all the way to win the Super Bowl.

Other things like props on who will finish with the most receiving yards or rushing yards are so reliant on injuries and factors that you can't see or determine in September that I don't really get involved in that.

For anyone that is interested, I can see Adrian Peterson dominating the rushing charts again if he stays healthy, while I like Dez Bryant to finally show a real consistency over the course of a season and show why he is amongst the best Receivers in the League. The fact I have drafted both in a number of Fantasy Football Leagues I play in has nothing to do with those predictions(!)


Below you will find my predictions as to how the Divisions will break down and who I think will win the SuperBowl next year in New York, but these are just my predictions. After that, I will post up my picks from Week 1 which begins on Thursday night with the reigning Champions Baltimore travelling to Denver in a fascinating rematch of last season's crazy Play Off game.

Let us just all hope for a really good season and a fascinating six months of football.


AFC East: The AFC East has been dominated by the New England Patriots (11-5) and I still expect them to top this Division at the end of the regular season even after all the disruption caused by Aaron Hernandez and his issues with the law.

Hernandez is gone, and Rob Gronkowski has had problems with his forearm which means the dangerous two Tight End combination is not always available, while Wes Welker's departure is going to have some serious ramifications for them. New England will go with a lot of young Receivers, but while they have Tom Brady I expect them to be a decent team.

The other contenders in the AFC East are not ready to challenge for the crown either and that is the reason I pick the Patriots to win the Division. The Miami Dolphins (9-7) could come closest and I have picked them to take a Wild Card this season with the off-season investment and a strong Defense.

It will mean Miami winning some big games and I have picked them to beat the Patriots at home as well as Baltimore and Cincinnati so there will be a lot of people out there thinking I am clutching at straws there but I saw signs that the Dolphins are an improving team and I am expecting more from Ryan Tannehill too this season.

The Buffalo Bills (7-9) and the New York Jets (3-13) are likely to have transition seasons in the Division with a new Head Coach in Buffalo and the Jets keeping Rex Ryan on as HC with the likelihood that he will be gone at the end of the season.


AFC North: This is one of the toughest Divisions in the NFL and it is really difficult to separate the top three teams.

I have seen a lot of publications pick the Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) as the team to take the Division crown this season, but I think their schedule may just cause a few problems, while I am still not convinced about Andy Dalton as the Quarter Back of the team.

The Bengals have a lot of talent in the roster on both sides of the ball, but I preferred the schedule that the Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) have, while I also think the Baltimore Ravens (9-7) will finish with better records than Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh are ageing and have made changes on both sides of the ball with some key veterans moving on, but the Steelers have a top Head Coach in Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger gives them a chance to win any game. The Steelers lost a number of close games last season and changing a couple of those into wins will see them get back to double-digit number of wins.

The schedule seems to favour Pittsburgh a little more than Baltimore and that is why I have picked them ahead of the Ravens. Baltimore have lost key players throughout the team that won the SuperBowl last season and have lost Dennis Pitta for an extended period of time, while a number of leaders have moved on or retired (Ed Reed, Ray Lewis).

Baltimore have a tough schedule too which begins with that trip to Denver and I expect the Cleveland Browns (4-12) to round up the Division.


AFC South: One of the more disappointing endings to last season was the one that the Houston Texans (11-5)  but I expect them to have a chance to make amends this season by winning this Division yet again.

The schedule is made more difficult by the fact that this Division is paired with the powerhouse NFC West this season and I expect Houston to see their record drop from last season. The arrival of Ed Reed at least gives them a little more leadership in a Secondary that was torched by New England twice last season,

Houston are helped by the Division they are in and I expect them to finish ahead of the Indianapolis Colts (8-8), Tennessee Titans (6-10) and Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13).

Indianapolis were a revelation last season as they won 11 games with rookie Quarter Back Andrew Luck behind Center, but they won a lot of close games and I don't expect the ball to fall in the same way two seasons in a row. They are still a young team and it just wouldn't be a surprised for me to see the Colts drop off from last season and perhaps miss the Play Offs this season.

I am not expecting much from Jacksonville this season as they try and turnaround a franchise that has stagnated and fallen to their worst regular season record a year ago. The Jags should win more than the 2 games they managed last season, but not by much, while Tennessee are perhaps the most interesting team in this Division.

The Titans finished 9-7 in 2011 and 6-10 last season, but they have made some smart moves in the off-season. Revamping the Offensive Line looks to have been a success and I expect Chris Johnson to get back on track from the Running Back position, but I am not a big fan of Jake Locker who is being backed up by Ryan Fitzpatrick at the Quarter Back spot.

Tennessee also have a tough schedule and could be behind the eight ball come their bye week (I project Tennessee at 2-5 at that point) and it is hard to see where the Titans win enough games to finish with a winning record in the Division.


AFC West: If anyone other than the Denver Broncos (13-3) win this Division, it would likely be down to them losing a couple of key players, like Peyton Manning, to injury. The Broncos have had a couple of setbacks in the off-season with injuries hurting their Offensive Line, Von Miller being suspended for the opening six games and Elvis Dumervil left for Baltimore because he didn't fax his contract extension in on time.

I like the addition of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to the backfield to improve the Secondary and the arrival of Wes Welker adds another crease to an already loaded Offense. I am expecting Denver to finish with the Number 1 seed in the AFC again this season and to finish with the same record as last season.

I don't see any real challengers to the Denver crown either although I do expect a big improvement from the Kansas City Chiefs (8-8) who won just 2 games last season. Alex Smith should give them a lot better chance to win games if he continues to play the mistake free football he did in his last two years with the 49ers as the Chiefs Defense will keep them in games.

Kansas City should make improvements throughout their Offense, but I am not convinced they have enough to steal a Wild Card spot although they will battle for that place.

The San Diego Chargers (7-9) and the Oakland Raiders (3-13) are both going to go through a rebuilding period, but I have picked San Diego to win 7 games if their Offense can fire. Oakland need time to fix the problems that have blighted the team since reaching the SuperBowl in 2002 and they may have to suffer through another year where they lose a lot of games after winning just 4 games last year.


AFC Division Winners: New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans and Denver Broncos
AFC Wild Cards: Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins
AFC Champion: Denver Broncos


NFC East: Out of the all Divisions in the NFL, the NFC East and the AFC North were the two that I had a hard time in picking a winner. At least in the AFC North, I could pick a team that I think would finish with a winning record, but that isn't the case in this Division.

I am finding it very hard to separate the New York Giants (8-8) and the Dallas Cowboys (8-8) although I do feel there is more of an upside with the latter. Either one of those teams could finish with a winning record and take the Division, but I would imagine it would be the Cowboys who can do that as long as they stay healthy, which is never a given in the NFL.

All of the teams in the Division have tough schedules, but I have given the Cowboys the edge over their rivals because I think they will finish 4-2 in the Division and that will give them the tie-breaker over the Giants.

It was the Washington Redskins (7-9) who finished with the title last season, but there are some question marks as to how healthy Robert Griffin III will be, although he is back for the opening game. I also have some doubts as to how good the team is that overachieved last season, while the schedule isn't doing them any favours. Road games at Denver, Green Bay, Atlanta and their three Divisional rivals is a tough slate to overcome and I can't see them repeating the Play Off trick this season.

Another team I question is the Philadelphia Eagles (6-10) under the new guidance of Chip Kelly- I can see them surprising a few teams if the Offense clicks with some playmakers on that unit, but the Defense looks like it will have some problems now the bigger names have been moved on.


NFC North: The NFC North has been dominated by the Green Bay Packers (13-3) in recent seasons and there is no doubt in my mind that one of the SuperBowl contenders will win this Division again as long as they don't have a serious injury to someone like Aaron Rodgers.

It will be interesting to see how far the Defense has come as they get the chance to take on the read-option of the San Francisco 49ers again following their painful and brutal beating in the Play Offs at the same stadium last January, but the schedule in the whole is one that could have the Packers fighting for the Number 1 seed in the NFC.

Greg Jennings may be gone, but the Packers have moved on with their younger Receivers and they will score plenty of points. One concern is the loss of Bryan Baluga on an Offensive Line that has struggled at times, but the arrival of Eddie Lacy gives them a strong Running Back and the Defense may have improved from their experiences of last season.

The closest challenges to the Division crown will likely come from the Chicago Bears (9-7) and the Minnesota Vikings (7-9), but both of those teams have some questions to answer coming into the new season. Chicago begin with a new Head Coach, but they could challenge for a Wild Card spot if they adjust to the new Offense being set up after winning 10 games a season ago.

Minnesota still have big questions about their Quarter Back and can't rely on Adrian Peterson having the same kind of year as last season when he essentially carried his team into the Play Off with his near record amount of rushing yards. The Vikings are loaded with talent from the Draft, but they will need a year to put it all together and the schedule again is the biggest factor that would worry me.

What could be the most interesting team in the Division is the disappointing Detroit Lions (6-10) who were amongst the leading choices for a SuperBowl spot last season. The Lions only won 4 games a year ago, but this a team loaded with talent and the Defense looks frightening up front.

I have the Lions winning 6 games, but they could have that many wins under their belt by their bye week if they come out focused and they may just be the dark horse that has been under-estimated in almost every place I've read.


NFC South: It is SuperBowl or bust for the Atlanta Falcons (11-5) this season as far as I am concerned as that will be the minimum of the goals set out for Mike Smith and his team. The return of Tony Gonzalez is huge for the Falcons Offense which has been given another crease by the signing of Steven Jackson.

The Offensive Line is going to be revamped, but they look a strong team all around and the signing of Osi Umenyiora gives them the chance to apply more pressure at the front from their Defense. It is clear the Falcons want an improvement from the Secondary having spent their first two Draft picks on Corner Backs. However, they do look the team to hold off the challenge of the likely resurgent New Orleans Saints (10-6).

I believe the reinstatement of Sean Payton as Head Coach will improve the Saints this season, although there remain some serious question marks on the Defense and how that unit will play a year after being torched through the air regularly. Rob Ryan has come in to provide some more aggression to that unit, but there is only so much a Defensive Co-Ordinator can do, although the Saints remain very tough to play against in their home dome.

New Orleans should have enough to win more than a couple, at least, of their road games on the schedule and that could be enough to propel the team back to the Play Offs after missing out last year.

I think there are some real problems to address at both the Carolina Panthers (6-10) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) and I have both finishing with losing records. I am not a fan of Carolina's schedule and I still don't think they have enough playmakers on both sides of the ball to improve on their 7 wins from last season and the Panthers may even take a step back.

Tampa Bay have made some decent off-season moves, none more so than bringing in Darrelle Revis, but Josh Freeman needs to find the consistency to keep hold of the Quarter Back job in his contract year and the schedule remains a little too difficult to see them surpass the 7 wins they managed last year.


NFC West: This was being considered as the best Division in the NFL before injuries have taken their toll on the top two teams, although I still expect the San Francisco 49ers (14-2) and the Seattle Seahawks (11-5) to be the teams to beat in the NFC after their performances last season.

Colin Kaepernick was a revelation for Jim Harbaugh who was proved right to give him the Quarter Back job at the expense of the now departed Alex Smith. However, there isn't much depth behind him and his scrambling style means he is susceptible to taking a hit that could ruin the 49ers chance of reaching their goal of returning to the SuperBowl.

Michael Crabtree is missing for the season, but this Defense remains stout and Kaepernick can help the team make enough plays to challenge for the Number 1 seed in the NFC, especially with the schedule they have been dealt.

Seattle will also be relying on their Defense to help them out this season as their Offense lost Percy Harvin before he has taken a snap for his new team. Injury to Sidney Rice puts more pressure on Russell Wilson's legs and I am expecting the Seahawks to come in as a Wild Card team to the post-season, although they have to manage a tough schedule.

Teams like the St Louis Rams (7-9) and the Arizona Cardinals (5-11) have some real talent, especially on the Defenses, but I don't know if they have the experience in the case of the former or have made all the adjustments for their new Head Coach in the case of the latter.

I expect both teams to give their Divisional rivals in Seattle and San Francisco real problems when they play against them, but they may not be ready to take the step of challenging for the Division just yet.


NFC Division Winners: Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons and San Francisco 49ers
NFC Wild Cards: Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints
NFC Champion: San Francisco 49ers


SuperBowl Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 28-24 Denver Broncos


These are only my personal predictions as to how the season will go, but injuries, off field distractions, Coaching changes are all factors that I couldn't possibly determine right now. As long as we have a season to enjoy, and I win my Fantasy Football Leagues, and the Miami Dolphins win the SuperBowl, I will accept my predictions to be wrong in September.

Hopefully, on a week by week basis, the picks will prove to be effective as I look to make the small changes to the way I select games in the middle of the season when my last season really struggled and ultimately left me with a small loss. If it wasn't for a perfect run during the Play Offs, it would have been a lot worse as the picks had a terrible time from Week 10-16.

The games will be spread out between Thursday and Monday every week this season so the picks will come up as soon as I feel the lines are worth locking in so check back on this post over the next few days, while I will also update my Twitter page @DavAulak when new picks have been made.


Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos Pick: The first game of the NFL season moves away from the recent tradition of the reigning SuperBowl Champions opening the season at home, thanks mainly to the ridiculous Baltimore Orioles who refused to change the schedule for one of their eighty-one home games played in a season.

The Baltimore Ravens have thus been given the task to take on the favourites for the SuperBowl this season as they visit Denver to take on the Broncos, a team that will be desperate for revenge having lost in heartbreaking fashion here in the Play Offs to the Ravens last season.

It does seem the Ravens are being given a lot of points in this one, although they have lost a number of players from the team that won the big game in New Orleans last February. However, the arrival of Elvis Dumervil, a former Bronco, should give them the opportunity to put Peyton Manning under some pressure, even more so now the Denver Offensive Line is down to their third choice Center.

Manning will still have success in the game, but Denver could be made to be a little one dimensional with a youthful backfield and the Ravens may have some element of control of this Offense.

On the other side of the ball, Baltimore are missing Dennis Pitta through injury, while Anquan Boldin has moved on, but the Ravens could still have some success throwing the ball against this Secondary that is likely without Champ Bailey. The loss of Dumervil has taken away one rushing player the Broncos had last season, while the suspension to Von Miller should also mean the Offensive Line can give Joe Flacco time to hurt the Broncos.

Denver are playing with revenge on their minds in this one and they were 5-2-1 against the spread as a home favourite last season, but I still think issues on both sides of the ball will give Baltimore a real chance to pull the surprise here. The Ravens are 14-8-1 against the spread as the road underdog in recent seasons, including going 2-0 in the post-season last year and getting more than a touchdown head start looks generous.


New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Pick: I have been going back and forth with this game, but it is hard to ignore the New England Patriots dominance of this series, particularly in Buffalo where they are 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 visits.

Yes, the Patriots are missing some key personnel, are coming off an awful off-season thanks to off field issues, and Tom Brady will be working with a young set of Receivers, but Buffalo are missing a couple of key pieces of their Secondary and that could level the playing field somewhat.

The biggest difference will be that Buffalo are going to be going with their rookie Quarter Back EJ Manuel this week and I imagine Bill Belichick sets up the rookie to make some mistakes and any extra possessions that Tom Brady gets on the Offense should allow the Patriots to move through for a double-digit win.

Buffalo are just 2-6-1 against the spread as a home underdog facing a Divisional rival over the last five seasons.


Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: The Pittsburgh Steelers might have lost some key players since last year, but they were a team that lost a lot of close games last season and I am expecting them to get back into the Play Offs this time around.

Ben Roethlisberger is likely going to be pressured for much of the game by the Titans pass rush, but I am expecting him to make a few big plays against a poor Secondary and a Defense that gave up the most points per game in 2012. Gregg Williams may help the aggression of Tennessee's Defense, but that could also leave them exposed at times.

The question then becomes whether Jake Locker can make the plays to keep the Titans in the game and I don't really trust him to be able to do that- the Offensive Line has improved to help give Locker time, but the Steelers have a Defense that is tough to run against historically and that means the pressure will be on the Quarter Back to make plays.

It is the first time that Locker will have come up against Dick LeBeau and that may see him make a couple of critical mistakes that proves to be the difference in the game. If those mistakes do come out, Pittsburgh should win this by at least 7 points.


Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Pick: There really isn't a lot to say about this game except there should be a bunch of points from both teams and it could easily come down to which of the teams has the ball last as to who wins the game.

I do think there are a couple of factors that are pointing to the New Orleans Saints to come out on top in this game though: First, they have the return of Sean Payton who should inspire the team and really get the crowd pumped up to take on their Divisional rival at the start of a season where the Play Offs will be goal for the Saints.

Second, New Orleans are very tough to play in the Dome; they are 28-11 in the last five seasons in this Dome, and they are 10-5 in those games against NFC South teams.

Drew Brees and Matt Ryan will likely have big numbers in this one, but I just feel the Saints will be ready for this one and I will look for Rob Ryan's aggressive Defense creating one key turnover that makes all the difference in the game.


Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: The Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars had the joint worst records in the NFL last season, but I do believe there is more talent in the Chiefs squad to turn things around this season and I expect them to show that in their first game of the season here.

New Head Coaches for both teams will look to make the difference, but there are a couple of key areas where I believe Kansas City will have the edge that helps them win this game and cover the spread,

Alex Smith might not be a Quarter Back that excites fans, but he can manage the game effectively and I believe he will make the throws that helps move the chains after Jamaal Charles sets up third and manageable situations for him. Dwayne Bowe and Anthony Fasano both have decent hands and big bodies that can make the catches to keep drives alive.

On the other hand, Blaine Gabbert will once again start for Gus Bradley's Jacksonville Jaguars and he is up against a strong Kansas City Defense that may be under-rated because of the record of last season. I expect this Defense to get pressure in Gabbert's face, which is something the Quarter Back has not dealt with effectively in the past.

The Chiefs are also more capable of keeping Maurice Jones-Drew in check, at least relatively to what the Jaguars will do to Charles, and Gabbert will also be missing Justin Blackmon. It is hard to see the Jaguars scoring a lot of points in this one and that should allow Kansas City to make a couple of big plays that leads to the cover.


Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns Pick: There has been a lot of work done with the Miami Dolphins in the off-season and the expectation has certainly increased that the Dolphins can challenge for a Wild Card place in the AFC this season. The Dolphins have a tough start to the season with back to back road games and they have to split those to give themselves a real chance of having a strong season.

This is the more winnable game of the two they start the season with, although Cleveland could be an improved team now that Norv Turner has come in as Offensive Co-Ordinator to help Brandon Weeden after the Quarter Back struggles last year. Trent Richardson should also be the explosive Running Back the Browns wanted, but the Dolphins have a tough Defense.

On the other side of the ball, Joe Haden should take away Mike Wallace in the passing attack, but Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson do give Ryan Tannehill other options as long as the Offensive Line can give him some time. Lamar Miller should help Tannehill out by getting yards on the ground too and taking the points looks the call in this one.

Miami are 23-11-2 against the spread as the road underdog in recent seasons, while the Browns are just 4-8-2 in the home favourite spot. However, my judgement could be clouded by the emotion of being a 'Fin Fan' so I will keep stakes to the minimum on this one.


Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: While I think the Indianapolis Colts overachieved last season and are likely to have a step back in terms of wins this season, they still look like they will be far too good for the Oakland Raiders in this opening game of the new year.

With Andrew Luck being protected by a revamped Offensive Line, I expect the former Number 1 pick to have more success this year and I think he will find plenty of time to find Reggie Wayne and TY Hilton downfield in this one. Ahmad Bradshaw will make it a little easier for Luck as he should be able to pick up yardage on the ground too and this could be a tough season for Oakland all around.

If the Colts are scoring points, Oakland will have a tough time keeping up as Reggie McKenzie and Dennis Allen try to right the numerous mistakes that have been made by the club since reaching the SuperBowl in 2002.

Matt Flynn's fall from grace since that huge game for the Green Bay Packers at the end of the 2011 season has been completed as he was beaten out for the starting Quarter Back job in Oakland by Terrelle Pryor after losing out to Russell Wilson in Seattle last year.

While Pryor is more mobile, he is playing behind an Offensive Line that will struggle to keep the pressure off him and I am not sure the former Ohio State Buckeye has the mechanics to keep up if Andrew Luck puts up the points I expect for the Colts.

Oakland have to travel across the country for an early start in this one and they are just 6-14 against the spread as the road underdog against non-Divisional opponents and everything seems to point to an easy Colts win.


Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: We have all heard how the Green Bay Packers have been preparing all summer for the read-option that San Francisco run after being humiliated in the Play Offs, but I still like the 49ers to get off to a positive start in this one.

Michael Crabtree is missing the for the season for the 49ers, but there is still enough talent here to keep the chains moving and it all begins with Colin Kaepernick. The Quarter Back can scramble for big gains in this one, but he also has the arm to find the likes of Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis, while Frank Gore will help keep the team in manageable situations.

I also still think Green Bay could struggle for some consistency on Offense because the Offensive Line will have a tough time giving Aaron Rodgers chances to throw against the weakest aspect of the 49ers Defense in the Secondary. Bryan Baluga is out for the season, which means an inexperienced Left Tackle will protect the Rodgers blind side and I expect Justin Smith and Aldon Smith to find their ways into the backfield.

It's never a good thing going against Aaron Rodgers as an underdog, but I just think the San Francisco team is a bad match up for them, particularly with Kaepernick providing a dual-threat behind Center. The 49ers beat the Packers twice last season, once here in the Play Offs and once on the road on the opening weekend of the season.

The 49ers are 10-3 against the spread as the home favourite against non-Divisional opponentsunder Jim Harbaugh. Green Bay are a strong road underdog, but they were just 1-2 against the spread in that spot last year and I like the 49ers in this one to win by at least 7.


New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: One of my best friends is a huge Dallas Cowboys fan and he put in a passionate and reasoned argument as to why the Cowboys won't just win this game, but will blow out the New York Giants.

He makes good points- I agree that Dallas have much more talent on both sides of the ball than the Giants and I also agree that an improved Offensive Line should help Tony Romo immensely in giving him time to make the correct decisions.

DeMarco Murray needs to stay healthy so the Cowboys don't become one-dimensional, but they should be able to put up plenty of points in this one.

However, the Giants always play Dallas tough in Arlington and they will want to make a much more positive start than last year when they were beaten at home by the Cowboys. There is still some talent in the New York team, but Victor Cruz could be limited and Eli Manning needs to prove his arm issues from 2012 are no longer a factor. David Wilson will certainly help by running the ball out of the backfield but this looks a game that could be a shoot-out decided by turnovers.

Tony Romo needs to protect the ball better than he does at times, while Dallas have been a terrible home favourite to back in recent seasons. The Cowboys are 3-17 against the spread as a home favourite in the last three seasons, going 4-17 as a home favourite against NFC East teams over the last few years.

The Giants are 10-3 against the spread as the road underdog at NFC East teams in recent seasons... This may just be the blowout that my friend spoke about, but you can't ignore how Dallas have played at home as the favourite and so I'll have a small interest on the Giants with the points.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins Pick: This is an intriguing Monday Night Football game between two Divisional rivals with expectations switched from a year ago. Back in September 2012, Philadelphia would have been tipped as one of the leading contenders in the NFC East, but now it is all change at the club, while Washington would have been picked as the team to finish in the basement of the Division but actually went through and won the East.

Chip Kelly comes in as Head Coach of the Eagles after all the success he had at Oregon, but it isn't easy to translate the College game to the NFL as Steve Spurrier found out. However, the Offense in Philadelphia should suit what Kelly wants to do and the Offensive Line should offer Michael Vick more protection now they are fully healthy compared with last season.

I also don't believe the Washington Defense is as good as advertised so I do expect the Eagles to move the chains and score points, even without Jeremy Maclin who was lost for the season.

However, Philadelphia are unlikely to have a great Defense this season after a lot of the big name players were allowed to move on this off-season and there is also a change to the system. Robert Griffin is back for Washington, but he could be tentative early after the knee injury that ended his rookie season and the Redskins may need to lean on Alfred Morris to keep the Offense in third and manageable situations.

Washington should be able to score enough points to win the game, but the Eagles are 10-3 against the spread as the road underdog at NFC East rivals in recent years and they have enough talent to keep this close with a field goal very possibly deciding the game.


Houston Texans @ San Diego Chargers Pick: This is a big season for the Houston Texans who need to have a deep run in the Play Offs to consider this season even close to a success and it all begins in the second Monday Night Football game as they head to San Diego to take on the Chargers.

I know a lot of people are not convinced about what Matt Schaub brings to the table as a Quarter Back, but I do believe he is capable of doing a little more than managing a game. Schaub should be protected enough by his Offensive Line to find the passing lanes to Andre Johnson, while the draft of DeAndre Hopkins to play on the other side gives Schaub another big target to aim for.

Adrian Foster and Ben Tate should be able to find holes to make life even easier for the Quarter Back and I expect Houston to have a lot of success moving the chains throughout this game.

And it isn't just the Offense that should be rolling- the Defense has the chance to really give the San Diego Offensive Line a terrible time and I don't think Philip Rivers will have a lot of time to let plays develop. Houston can at least contain Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead for the main part through their powerful run Defense and the pressure will be on Rivers to make the throws to keep the chains moving.

The Texans have never beaten San Diego, but I think they look too good on both sides of the ball and win this one by seven points or more.


MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens + 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 3 Points @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 2 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 10.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New York Giants + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Houston Texans - 4 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units