NFL Week 1 Picks 2013 (September 5-9)

The NFL is back and I guess when you get older, the faster time flies as I feel it was just last weekend I was cheering on the Baltimore Ravens to knock off the San Francisco 49ers.

Baltimore winning the Super Bowl really did come out of left-field having come so close during the years, but I wasn't convinced Joe Flacco was going to lead them to a title while the Defense was getting older. However, Baltimore really put it together in the final month of the season and, along with some divine intervention in that game at Denver in the Play Offs, helped them win the title, although things have certainly changed her in the off-season.

The last few seasons have shown how difficult it is to make season long predictions with teams getting hot in the final few weeks of the regular season and using that momentum to go all the way to win the Super Bowl.

Other things like props on who will finish with the most receiving yards or rushing yards are so reliant on injuries and factors that you can't see or determine in September that I don't really get involved in that.

For anyone that is interested, I can see Adrian Peterson dominating the rushing charts again if he stays healthy, while I like Dez Bryant to finally show a real consistency over the course of a season and show why he is amongst the best Receivers in the League. The fact I have drafted both in a number of Fantasy Football Leagues I play in has nothing to do with those predictions(!)


Below you will find my predictions as to how the Divisions will break down and who I think will win the SuperBowl next year in New York, but these are just my predictions. After that, I will post up my picks from Week 1 which begins on Thursday night with the reigning Champions Baltimore travelling to Denver in a fascinating rematch of last season's crazy Play Off game.

Let us just all hope for a really good season and a fascinating six months of football.


AFC East: The AFC East has been dominated by the New England Patriots (11-5) and I still expect them to top this Division at the end of the regular season even after all the disruption caused by Aaron Hernandez and his issues with the law.

Hernandez is gone, and Rob Gronkowski has had problems with his forearm which means the dangerous two Tight End combination is not always available, while Wes Welker's departure is going to have some serious ramifications for them. New England will go with a lot of young Receivers, but while they have Tom Brady I expect them to be a decent team.

The other contenders in the AFC East are not ready to challenge for the crown either and that is the reason I pick the Patriots to win the Division. The Miami Dolphins (9-7) could come closest and I have picked them to take a Wild Card this season with the off-season investment and a strong Defense.

It will mean Miami winning some big games and I have picked them to beat the Patriots at home as well as Baltimore and Cincinnati so there will be a lot of people out there thinking I am clutching at straws there but I saw signs that the Dolphins are an improving team and I am expecting more from Ryan Tannehill too this season.

The Buffalo Bills (7-9) and the New York Jets (3-13) are likely to have transition seasons in the Division with a new Head Coach in Buffalo and the Jets keeping Rex Ryan on as HC with the likelihood that he will be gone at the end of the season.


AFC North: This is one of the toughest Divisions in the NFL and it is really difficult to separate the top three teams.

I have seen a lot of publications pick the Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) as the team to take the Division crown this season, but I think their schedule may just cause a few problems, while I am still not convinced about Andy Dalton as the Quarter Back of the team.

The Bengals have a lot of talent in the roster on both sides of the ball, but I preferred the schedule that the Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) have, while I also think the Baltimore Ravens (9-7) will finish with better records than Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh are ageing and have made changes on both sides of the ball with some key veterans moving on, but the Steelers have a top Head Coach in Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger gives them a chance to win any game. The Steelers lost a number of close games last season and changing a couple of those into wins will see them get back to double-digit number of wins.

The schedule seems to favour Pittsburgh a little more than Baltimore and that is why I have picked them ahead of the Ravens. Baltimore have lost key players throughout the team that won the SuperBowl last season and have lost Dennis Pitta for an extended period of time, while a number of leaders have moved on or retired (Ed Reed, Ray Lewis).

Baltimore have a tough schedule too which begins with that trip to Denver and I expect the Cleveland Browns (4-12) to round up the Division.


AFC South: One of the more disappointing endings to last season was the one that the Houston Texans (11-5)  but I expect them to have a chance to make amends this season by winning this Division yet again.

The schedule is made more difficult by the fact that this Division is paired with the powerhouse NFC West this season and I expect Houston to see their record drop from last season. The arrival of Ed Reed at least gives them a little more leadership in a Secondary that was torched by New England twice last season,

Houston are helped by the Division they are in and I expect them to finish ahead of the Indianapolis Colts (8-8), Tennessee Titans (6-10) and Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13).

Indianapolis were a revelation last season as they won 11 games with rookie Quarter Back Andrew Luck behind Center, but they won a lot of close games and I don't expect the ball to fall in the same way two seasons in a row. They are still a young team and it just wouldn't be a surprised for me to see the Colts drop off from last season and perhaps miss the Play Offs this season.

I am not expecting much from Jacksonville this season as they try and turnaround a franchise that has stagnated and fallen to their worst regular season record a year ago. The Jags should win more than the 2 games they managed last season, but not by much, while Tennessee are perhaps the most interesting team in this Division.

The Titans finished 9-7 in 2011 and 6-10 last season, but they have made some smart moves in the off-season. Revamping the Offensive Line looks to have been a success and I expect Chris Johnson to get back on track from the Running Back position, but I am not a big fan of Jake Locker who is being backed up by Ryan Fitzpatrick at the Quarter Back spot.

Tennessee also have a tough schedule and could be behind the eight ball come their bye week (I project Tennessee at 2-5 at that point) and it is hard to see where the Titans win enough games to finish with a winning record in the Division.


AFC West: If anyone other than the Denver Broncos (13-3) win this Division, it would likely be down to them losing a couple of key players, like Peyton Manning, to injury. The Broncos have had a couple of setbacks in the off-season with injuries hurting their Offensive Line, Von Miller being suspended for the opening six games and Elvis Dumervil left for Baltimore because he didn't fax his contract extension in on time.

I like the addition of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to the backfield to improve the Secondary and the arrival of Wes Welker adds another crease to an already loaded Offense. I am expecting Denver to finish with the Number 1 seed in the AFC again this season and to finish with the same record as last season.

I don't see any real challengers to the Denver crown either although I do expect a big improvement from the Kansas City Chiefs (8-8) who won just 2 games last season. Alex Smith should give them a lot better chance to win games if he continues to play the mistake free football he did in his last two years with the 49ers as the Chiefs Defense will keep them in games.

Kansas City should make improvements throughout their Offense, but I am not convinced they have enough to steal a Wild Card spot although they will battle for that place.

The San Diego Chargers (7-9) and the Oakland Raiders (3-13) are both going to go through a rebuilding period, but I have picked San Diego to win 7 games if their Offense can fire. Oakland need time to fix the problems that have blighted the team since reaching the SuperBowl in 2002 and they may have to suffer through another year where they lose a lot of games after winning just 4 games last year.


AFC Division Winners: New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans and Denver Broncos
AFC Wild Cards: Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins
AFC Champion: Denver Broncos


NFC East: Out of the all Divisions in the NFL, the NFC East and the AFC North were the two that I had a hard time in picking a winner. At least in the AFC North, I could pick a team that I think would finish with a winning record, but that isn't the case in this Division.

I am finding it very hard to separate the New York Giants (8-8) and the Dallas Cowboys (8-8) although I do feel there is more of an upside with the latter. Either one of those teams could finish with a winning record and take the Division, but I would imagine it would be the Cowboys who can do that as long as they stay healthy, which is never a given in the NFL.

All of the teams in the Division have tough schedules, but I have given the Cowboys the edge over their rivals because I think they will finish 4-2 in the Division and that will give them the tie-breaker over the Giants.

It was the Washington Redskins (7-9) who finished with the title last season, but there are some question marks as to how healthy Robert Griffin III will be, although he is back for the opening game. I also have some doubts as to how good the team is that overachieved last season, while the schedule isn't doing them any favours. Road games at Denver, Green Bay, Atlanta and their three Divisional rivals is a tough slate to overcome and I can't see them repeating the Play Off trick this season.

Another team I question is the Philadelphia Eagles (6-10) under the new guidance of Chip Kelly- I can see them surprising a few teams if the Offense clicks with some playmakers on that unit, but the Defense looks like it will have some problems now the bigger names have been moved on.


NFC North: The NFC North has been dominated by the Green Bay Packers (13-3) in recent seasons and there is no doubt in my mind that one of the SuperBowl contenders will win this Division again as long as they don't have a serious injury to someone like Aaron Rodgers.

It will be interesting to see how far the Defense has come as they get the chance to take on the read-option of the San Francisco 49ers again following their painful and brutal beating in the Play Offs at the same stadium last January, but the schedule in the whole is one that could have the Packers fighting for the Number 1 seed in the NFC.

Greg Jennings may be gone, but the Packers have moved on with their younger Receivers and they will score plenty of points. One concern is the loss of Bryan Baluga on an Offensive Line that has struggled at times, but the arrival of Eddie Lacy gives them a strong Running Back and the Defense may have improved from their experiences of last season.

The closest challenges to the Division crown will likely come from the Chicago Bears (9-7) and the Minnesota Vikings (7-9), but both of those teams have some questions to answer coming into the new season. Chicago begin with a new Head Coach, but they could challenge for a Wild Card spot if they adjust to the new Offense being set up after winning 10 games a season ago.

Minnesota still have big questions about their Quarter Back and can't rely on Adrian Peterson having the same kind of year as last season when he essentially carried his team into the Play Off with his near record amount of rushing yards. The Vikings are loaded with talent from the Draft, but they will need a year to put it all together and the schedule again is the biggest factor that would worry me.

What could be the most interesting team in the Division is the disappointing Detroit Lions (6-10) who were amongst the leading choices for a SuperBowl spot last season. The Lions only won 4 games a year ago, but this a team loaded with talent and the Defense looks frightening up front.

I have the Lions winning 6 games, but they could have that many wins under their belt by their bye week if they come out focused and they may just be the dark horse that has been under-estimated in almost every place I've read.


NFC South: It is SuperBowl or bust for the Atlanta Falcons (11-5) this season as far as I am concerned as that will be the minimum of the goals set out for Mike Smith and his team. The return of Tony Gonzalez is huge for the Falcons Offense which has been given another crease by the signing of Steven Jackson.

The Offensive Line is going to be revamped, but they look a strong team all around and the signing of Osi Umenyiora gives them the chance to apply more pressure at the front from their Defense. It is clear the Falcons want an improvement from the Secondary having spent their first two Draft picks on Corner Backs. However, they do look the team to hold off the challenge of the likely resurgent New Orleans Saints (10-6).

I believe the reinstatement of Sean Payton as Head Coach will improve the Saints this season, although there remain some serious question marks on the Defense and how that unit will play a year after being torched through the air regularly. Rob Ryan has come in to provide some more aggression to that unit, but there is only so much a Defensive Co-Ordinator can do, although the Saints remain very tough to play against in their home dome.

New Orleans should have enough to win more than a couple, at least, of their road games on the schedule and that could be enough to propel the team back to the Play Offs after missing out last year.

I think there are some real problems to address at both the Carolina Panthers (6-10) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) and I have both finishing with losing records. I am not a fan of Carolina's schedule and I still don't think they have enough playmakers on both sides of the ball to improve on their 7 wins from last season and the Panthers may even take a step back.

Tampa Bay have made some decent off-season moves, none more so than bringing in Darrelle Revis, but Josh Freeman needs to find the consistency to keep hold of the Quarter Back job in his contract year and the schedule remains a little too difficult to see them surpass the 7 wins they managed last year.


NFC West: This was being considered as the best Division in the NFL before injuries have taken their toll on the top two teams, although I still expect the San Francisco 49ers (14-2) and the Seattle Seahawks (11-5) to be the teams to beat in the NFC after their performances last season.

Colin Kaepernick was a revelation for Jim Harbaugh who was proved right to give him the Quarter Back job at the expense of the now departed Alex Smith. However, there isn't much depth behind him and his scrambling style means he is susceptible to taking a hit that could ruin the 49ers chance of reaching their goal of returning to the SuperBowl.

Michael Crabtree is missing for the season, but this Defense remains stout and Kaepernick can help the team make enough plays to challenge for the Number 1 seed in the NFC, especially with the schedule they have been dealt.

Seattle will also be relying on their Defense to help them out this season as their Offense lost Percy Harvin before he has taken a snap for his new team. Injury to Sidney Rice puts more pressure on Russell Wilson's legs and I am expecting the Seahawks to come in as a Wild Card team to the post-season, although they have to manage a tough schedule.

Teams like the St Louis Rams (7-9) and the Arizona Cardinals (5-11) have some real talent, especially on the Defenses, but I don't know if they have the experience in the case of the former or have made all the adjustments for their new Head Coach in the case of the latter.

I expect both teams to give their Divisional rivals in Seattle and San Francisco real problems when they play against them, but they may not be ready to take the step of challenging for the Division just yet.


NFC Division Winners: Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons and San Francisco 49ers
NFC Wild Cards: Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints
NFC Champion: San Francisco 49ers


SuperBowl Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 28-24 Denver Broncos


These are only my personal predictions as to how the season will go, but injuries, off field distractions, Coaching changes are all factors that I couldn't possibly determine right now. As long as we have a season to enjoy, and I win my Fantasy Football Leagues, and the Miami Dolphins win the SuperBowl, I will accept my predictions to be wrong in September.

Hopefully, on a week by week basis, the picks will prove to be effective as I look to make the small changes to the way I select games in the middle of the season when my last season really struggled and ultimately left me with a small loss. If it wasn't for a perfect run during the Play Offs, it would have been a lot worse as the picks had a terrible time from Week 10-16.

The games will be spread out between Thursday and Monday every week this season so the picks will come up as soon as I feel the lines are worth locking in so check back on this post over the next few days, while I will also update my Twitter page @DavAulak when new picks have been made.


Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos Pick: The first game of the NFL season moves away from the recent tradition of the reigning SuperBowl Champions opening the season at home, thanks mainly to the ridiculous Baltimore Orioles who refused to change the schedule for one of their eighty-one home games played in a season.

The Baltimore Ravens have thus been given the task to take on the favourites for the SuperBowl this season as they visit Denver to take on the Broncos, a team that will be desperate for revenge having lost in heartbreaking fashion here in the Play Offs to the Ravens last season.

It does seem the Ravens are being given a lot of points in this one, although they have lost a number of players from the team that won the big game in New Orleans last February. However, the arrival of Elvis Dumervil, a former Bronco, should give them the opportunity to put Peyton Manning under some pressure, even more so now the Denver Offensive Line is down to their third choice Center.

Manning will still have success in the game, but Denver could be made to be a little one dimensional with a youthful backfield and the Ravens may have some element of control of this Offense.

On the other side of the ball, Baltimore are missing Dennis Pitta through injury, while Anquan Boldin has moved on, but the Ravens could still have some success throwing the ball against this Secondary that is likely without Champ Bailey. The loss of Dumervil has taken away one rushing player the Broncos had last season, while the suspension to Von Miller should also mean the Offensive Line can give Joe Flacco time to hurt the Broncos.

Denver are playing with revenge on their minds in this one and they were 5-2-1 against the spread as a home favourite last season, but I still think issues on both sides of the ball will give Baltimore a real chance to pull the surprise here. The Ravens are 14-8-1 against the spread as the road underdog in recent seasons, including going 2-0 in the post-season last year and getting more than a touchdown head start looks generous.


New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Pick: I have been going back and forth with this game, but it is hard to ignore the New England Patriots dominance of this series, particularly in Buffalo where they are 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 visits.

Yes, the Patriots are missing some key personnel, are coming off an awful off-season thanks to off field issues, and Tom Brady will be working with a young set of Receivers, but Buffalo are missing a couple of key pieces of their Secondary and that could level the playing field somewhat.

The biggest difference will be that Buffalo are going to be going with their rookie Quarter Back EJ Manuel this week and I imagine Bill Belichick sets up the rookie to make some mistakes and any extra possessions that Tom Brady gets on the Offense should allow the Patriots to move through for a double-digit win.

Buffalo are just 2-6-1 against the spread as a home underdog facing a Divisional rival over the last five seasons.


Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: The Pittsburgh Steelers might have lost some key players since last year, but they were a team that lost a lot of close games last season and I am expecting them to get back into the Play Offs this time around.

Ben Roethlisberger is likely going to be pressured for much of the game by the Titans pass rush, but I am expecting him to make a few big plays against a poor Secondary and a Defense that gave up the most points per game in 2012. Gregg Williams may help the aggression of Tennessee's Defense, but that could also leave them exposed at times.

The question then becomes whether Jake Locker can make the plays to keep the Titans in the game and I don't really trust him to be able to do that- the Offensive Line has improved to help give Locker time, but the Steelers have a Defense that is tough to run against historically and that means the pressure will be on the Quarter Back to make plays.

It is the first time that Locker will have come up against Dick LeBeau and that may see him make a couple of critical mistakes that proves to be the difference in the game. If those mistakes do come out, Pittsburgh should win this by at least 7 points.


Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Pick: There really isn't a lot to say about this game except there should be a bunch of points from both teams and it could easily come down to which of the teams has the ball last as to who wins the game.

I do think there are a couple of factors that are pointing to the New Orleans Saints to come out on top in this game though: First, they have the return of Sean Payton who should inspire the team and really get the crowd pumped up to take on their Divisional rival at the start of a season where the Play Offs will be goal for the Saints.

Second, New Orleans are very tough to play in the Dome; they are 28-11 in the last five seasons in this Dome, and they are 10-5 in those games against NFC South teams.

Drew Brees and Matt Ryan will likely have big numbers in this one, but I just feel the Saints will be ready for this one and I will look for Rob Ryan's aggressive Defense creating one key turnover that makes all the difference in the game.


Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: The Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars had the joint worst records in the NFL last season, but I do believe there is more talent in the Chiefs squad to turn things around this season and I expect them to show that in their first game of the season here.

New Head Coaches for both teams will look to make the difference, but there are a couple of key areas where I believe Kansas City will have the edge that helps them win this game and cover the spread,

Alex Smith might not be a Quarter Back that excites fans, but he can manage the game effectively and I believe he will make the throws that helps move the chains after Jamaal Charles sets up third and manageable situations for him. Dwayne Bowe and Anthony Fasano both have decent hands and big bodies that can make the catches to keep drives alive.

On the other hand, Blaine Gabbert will once again start for Gus Bradley's Jacksonville Jaguars and he is up against a strong Kansas City Defense that may be under-rated because of the record of last season. I expect this Defense to get pressure in Gabbert's face, which is something the Quarter Back has not dealt with effectively in the past.

The Chiefs are also more capable of keeping Maurice Jones-Drew in check, at least relatively to what the Jaguars will do to Charles, and Gabbert will also be missing Justin Blackmon. It is hard to see the Jaguars scoring a lot of points in this one and that should allow Kansas City to make a couple of big plays that leads to the cover.


Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns Pick: There has been a lot of work done with the Miami Dolphins in the off-season and the expectation has certainly increased that the Dolphins can challenge for a Wild Card place in the AFC this season. The Dolphins have a tough start to the season with back to back road games and they have to split those to give themselves a real chance of having a strong season.

This is the more winnable game of the two they start the season with, although Cleveland could be an improved team now that Norv Turner has come in as Offensive Co-Ordinator to help Brandon Weeden after the Quarter Back struggles last year. Trent Richardson should also be the explosive Running Back the Browns wanted, but the Dolphins have a tough Defense.

On the other side of the ball, Joe Haden should take away Mike Wallace in the passing attack, but Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson do give Ryan Tannehill other options as long as the Offensive Line can give him some time. Lamar Miller should help Tannehill out by getting yards on the ground too and taking the points looks the call in this one.

Miami are 23-11-2 against the spread as the road underdog in recent seasons, while the Browns are just 4-8-2 in the home favourite spot. However, my judgement could be clouded by the emotion of being a 'Fin Fan' so I will keep stakes to the minimum on this one.


Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: While I think the Indianapolis Colts overachieved last season and are likely to have a step back in terms of wins this season, they still look like they will be far too good for the Oakland Raiders in this opening game of the new year.

With Andrew Luck being protected by a revamped Offensive Line, I expect the former Number 1 pick to have more success this year and I think he will find plenty of time to find Reggie Wayne and TY Hilton downfield in this one. Ahmad Bradshaw will make it a little easier for Luck as he should be able to pick up yardage on the ground too and this could be a tough season for Oakland all around.

If the Colts are scoring points, Oakland will have a tough time keeping up as Reggie McKenzie and Dennis Allen try to right the numerous mistakes that have been made by the club since reaching the SuperBowl in 2002.

Matt Flynn's fall from grace since that huge game for the Green Bay Packers at the end of the 2011 season has been completed as he was beaten out for the starting Quarter Back job in Oakland by Terrelle Pryor after losing out to Russell Wilson in Seattle last year.

While Pryor is more mobile, he is playing behind an Offensive Line that will struggle to keep the pressure off him and I am not sure the former Ohio State Buckeye has the mechanics to keep up if Andrew Luck puts up the points I expect for the Colts.

Oakland have to travel across the country for an early start in this one and they are just 6-14 against the spread as the road underdog against non-Divisional opponents and everything seems to point to an easy Colts win.


Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: We have all heard how the Green Bay Packers have been preparing all summer for the read-option that San Francisco run after being humiliated in the Play Offs, but I still like the 49ers to get off to a positive start in this one.

Michael Crabtree is missing the for the season for the 49ers, but there is still enough talent here to keep the chains moving and it all begins with Colin Kaepernick. The Quarter Back can scramble for big gains in this one, but he also has the arm to find the likes of Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis, while Frank Gore will help keep the team in manageable situations.

I also still think Green Bay could struggle for some consistency on Offense because the Offensive Line will have a tough time giving Aaron Rodgers chances to throw against the weakest aspect of the 49ers Defense in the Secondary. Bryan Baluga is out for the season, which means an inexperienced Left Tackle will protect the Rodgers blind side and I expect Justin Smith and Aldon Smith to find their ways into the backfield.

It's never a good thing going against Aaron Rodgers as an underdog, but I just think the San Francisco team is a bad match up for them, particularly with Kaepernick providing a dual-threat behind Center. The 49ers beat the Packers twice last season, once here in the Play Offs and once on the road on the opening weekend of the season.

The 49ers are 10-3 against the spread as the home favourite against non-Divisional opponentsunder Jim Harbaugh. Green Bay are a strong road underdog, but they were just 1-2 against the spread in that spot last year and I like the 49ers in this one to win by at least 7.


New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: One of my best friends is a huge Dallas Cowboys fan and he put in a passionate and reasoned argument as to why the Cowboys won't just win this game, but will blow out the New York Giants.

He makes good points- I agree that Dallas have much more talent on both sides of the ball than the Giants and I also agree that an improved Offensive Line should help Tony Romo immensely in giving him time to make the correct decisions.

DeMarco Murray needs to stay healthy so the Cowboys don't become one-dimensional, but they should be able to put up plenty of points in this one.

However, the Giants always play Dallas tough in Arlington and they will want to make a much more positive start than last year when they were beaten at home by the Cowboys. There is still some talent in the New York team, but Victor Cruz could be limited and Eli Manning needs to prove his arm issues from 2012 are no longer a factor. David Wilson will certainly help by running the ball out of the backfield but this looks a game that could be a shoot-out decided by turnovers.

Tony Romo needs to protect the ball better than he does at times, while Dallas have been a terrible home favourite to back in recent seasons. The Cowboys are 3-17 against the spread as a home favourite in the last three seasons, going 4-17 as a home favourite against NFC East teams over the last few years.

The Giants are 10-3 against the spread as the road underdog at NFC East teams in recent seasons... This may just be the blowout that my friend spoke about, but you can't ignore how Dallas have played at home as the favourite and so I'll have a small interest on the Giants with the points.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins Pick: This is an intriguing Monday Night Football game between two Divisional rivals with expectations switched from a year ago. Back in September 2012, Philadelphia would have been tipped as one of the leading contenders in the NFC East, but now it is all change at the club, while Washington would have been picked as the team to finish in the basement of the Division but actually went through and won the East.

Chip Kelly comes in as Head Coach of the Eagles after all the success he had at Oregon, but it isn't easy to translate the College game to the NFL as Steve Spurrier found out. However, the Offense in Philadelphia should suit what Kelly wants to do and the Offensive Line should offer Michael Vick more protection now they are fully healthy compared with last season.

I also don't believe the Washington Defense is as good as advertised so I do expect the Eagles to move the chains and score points, even without Jeremy Maclin who was lost for the season.

However, Philadelphia are unlikely to have a great Defense this season after a lot of the big name players were allowed to move on this off-season and there is also a change to the system. Robert Griffin is back for Washington, but he could be tentative early after the knee injury that ended his rookie season and the Redskins may need to lean on Alfred Morris to keep the Offense in third and manageable situations.

Washington should be able to score enough points to win the game, but the Eagles are 10-3 against the spread as the road underdog at NFC East rivals in recent years and they have enough talent to keep this close with a field goal very possibly deciding the game.


Houston Texans @ San Diego Chargers Pick: This is a big season for the Houston Texans who need to have a deep run in the Play Offs to consider this season even close to a success and it all begins in the second Monday Night Football game as they head to San Diego to take on the Chargers.

I know a lot of people are not convinced about what Matt Schaub brings to the table as a Quarter Back, but I do believe he is capable of doing a little more than managing a game. Schaub should be protected enough by his Offensive Line to find the passing lanes to Andre Johnson, while the draft of DeAndre Hopkins to play on the other side gives Schaub another big target to aim for.

Adrian Foster and Ben Tate should be able to find holes to make life even easier for the Quarter Back and I expect Houston to have a lot of success moving the chains throughout this game.

And it isn't just the Offense that should be rolling- the Defense has the chance to really give the San Diego Offensive Line a terrible time and I don't think Philip Rivers will have a lot of time to let plays develop. Houston can at least contain Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead for the main part through their powerful run Defense and the pressure will be on Rivers to make the throws to keep the chains moving.

The Texans have never beaten San Diego, but I think they look too good on both sides of the ball and win this one by seven points or more.


MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens + 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 3 Points @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 2 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 10.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New York Giants + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Houston Texans - 4 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

College Football Week 1 Picks 2013 (August 29-September 2)

It's that time of the year again as all the preparation of the last few months has been all for the opening weekend of the coming season.

The College Football world is fast moving and there can be big swings from season to season as recruiting classes are tested, while some teams are decimated by the NFL Draft. We are still a year away from the College Play Offs so once again we are likely to see some controversy as a deserved team is not in the mix to compete for a National Championship.

Alabama will be looking to make history by winning the National Championship for the fourth time in five years and while they have lost some top players to the NFL, they still look the team to beat. How will Oregon react to losing Chip Kelly? Will Johnny Football be eligible at all this year? Can the SEC be stopped as they bid to have one of their teams win the National Championship yet again? All of these kinds of questions will be answered over the coming months.


Last season, the picks had a really disappointing start which put the chance of reaching a profit behind the black ball after the first ten weeks of the season. However, a strong end to the season meant the losses were limited after all the success of the 2011 season.

Early on in the season, some teams are more concerned with getting a lot of the back ups playing time, especially when games are in hand, so I did suffer from a few back door covers early in the season after teams gave up garbage time scores to fall just under the spread.

That is something that I will keep in mind early in this new season and that should hopefully help lead me back into the same situation as 2011.


The new season also means a time for new predictions as to will be amongst the leading contenders in the nation going forward. Below you will see my picks for each Division and Conference and a small blurb as to why I think they will win:

SEC West: Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0, 8-0)- They may have lost some pieces from the team that won the National Championship last season, but Alabama have recruited well over the years and there is enough here to think they go close to winning the whole thing for a third time in a row.

The game at Texas A&M is going to be key but Nick Saban has a strong record when trying to overturn a loss to an opponent, Alabama have two weeks to prepare for that game and all the furore around Johnny Manziel means his eligibility is in question for the season.

The rest of the schedule looks very nice on paper as they host LSU and Ole Miss, while not facing any of the likely top four from the SEC East and the Crimson Tide should have a chance to compete for the SEC Championship and get back to the National Championship Game.

SEC East: Georgia Bulldogs (12-0, 8-0): Georgia need to have their game faces on from week one if they are to run the table and get back to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game; they face Clemson Tigers on the road to open the season and also have to host South Carolina and LSU in the first month of the season and that could decide their fate for the whole year.

If they can win those four games, the Bulldogs will still have tough tests at Tennessee and Vanderbilt and face the Gators in Florida so there is every chance that Georgia will lose a game somewhere. However, I expect they can beat South Carolina and that could give them the tie-breaker over their nearest rivals, in my opinion, and thus take the SEC East title.


SEC Championship: Alabama Crimson Tide


Pac-12 North: Stanford Cardinal (12-0, 9-0)- Most people would still be picking the Oregon Ducks to win the Division despite the loss of Chip Kelly as Head Coach who moved to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Ducks may have the 'easier' of the schedules compared with Stanford, but the Cardinal host Oregon and have beaten them twice in the last four years so they have every chance to taking the Division with that tie-breaker in their pocket.

A key for the Cardinal is negotiating the tough Pac-12 South schedule they have been handed with visits from Arizona State and UCLA, while they also have to go to USC. Even if Stanford lose one of those games, which is possible, beating Oregon will still give them the inside track to the Division.

Pac-12 South: Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3, 7-2)- The Pac-12 South isn't as strong as the North, but I believe Arizona State have the best chance of taking the Division because of the way the schedule shapes up for them.

A bad run of four losses in a row cost the Sun Devils a chance to compete for the Division last year, but they have a lot of positives this time including hosting USC and Oregon State, while their nearest rivals have the misfortune of facing the tougher opponents from the Pac-12 North.


Pac-12 Championship: Stanford Cardinal


Big Ten Leaders: Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0, 8-0)- Urban Meyer surpassed expectations last season by leading the Ohio State Buckeyes to an unbeaten season and they are now considered the team most likely to break the SEC dominance of the National Title.

The Buckeyes have a manageable schedule as they host most of the tougher teams they play (Wisconsin and Penn State), but visits to Northwestern and particularly the Michigan Wolverines to end the season are the ones most likely to scupper a trip to the Rose Bowl in Pasadena on January 6th 2014.

Big Ten Legends: Michigan Wolverines (10-2, 6-2)- I have been impressed with the way Brady Hoke has turned things around at Michigan as he enters his third season as Head Coach. Michigan fans will believe they are capable of doing something very special this season and I do think the pieces are in place for the Wolverines to get to one of the big Bowl games.

However, they will have to negotiate some tough road games at Penn State, Northwestern and Michigan State and also have to host Notre Dame and Nebraska and that is all before they end the season with a home game against Ohio State. It is hard to see the Wolverines going better than 2-1 in those three road games but they should be able to win the Division by knocking off Nebraska and competing in the Big Ten Championship.



Big Ten Championship: Ohio State Buckeyes


Big 12: Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1, 8-1)- This might be the most competitive Conference in the nation, but there are now outstanding teams that you can say with any real confidence will have enough to get into the National Championship mix.

The powers like the Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns have talent in their squads, but both also have doubts about experience plus toughness. Both teams also have some very tough scheduling and the schedule is one of the main reasons I have picked the Cowboys to win the Conference.

Oklahoma State are fortunate that they host most of their main rivals. although the trip to the Longhorns may be the reason they are not involved in the National Championship talk. This is a team that is capable of putting up a lot of points and they do look the team to beat this time around after going 5-4 in Conference play last season.


ACC Atlantic: Clemson Tigers (10-2, 8-0)- The Clemson Tigers have returned enough talent from last season to believe they can have a really special season this time around, although much of that may come down to how they do against two SEC East teams against whom they open and close their regular season.

Georgia Bulldogs and South Carolina Gamecocks are big challenges for Clemson and both may be a little too strong, although the Tigers can point to their Bowl win over LSU last year for confidence. If they can win both of those games, Clemson may just get involved in the National Championship discussion.

The rest of the schedule is to Clemson's favour as they don't take on any of the top teams from the ACC Coastal and they host their main rivals in this Division, the Florida State Seminoles and I expect them to take advantage thanks to their powerful offense.

ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech Hokies (10-2, 7-1)- A lot of people may be tipping the Miami Hurricanes to be the team to beat in this Division, but I believe the Virginia Tech Hokies can get back to their rightful place under Frank Beamer and register a double-digit win season.

Logan Thomas was a disappointment last season, but he looks a prototype NFL Quarter Back and I expect more from him this season, while the Defense has 9 starters back and could be dominant. The Hokies are likely to start the season with a loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide, but the key will be winning one of two tough road games against Miami or the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.

If they can split those games 1-1 at least, the rest of the schedule looks like one Virginia Tech can negotiate and I do think Miami, their likely closest rivals, have a couple of really tough road games themselves which they may not win.


ACC Championship: Clemson Tigers


American Champion: Louisville Cardinals (11-1, 7-1)- The Louisville Cardinals are not flying under the radar this season after destroying the Florida Gators in the Sugar Bowl at the end of last season and fans will be expectant for an 11 win season again at the least.

I read that Louisville were considered the Number 1 team that could go unbeaten on CBSSports.com and I can't argue too much with that as they have every chance of running the table with a very comfortable looking schedule on slate.

However, the games at Kentucky and particularly the final game at Cincinnati look like the biggest dangers to that happening for Louisville. The Bearcats may still be in contention to win the Conference when that final game comes around, but they have three significant road tests at South Florida, Rutgers and Houston during the season that may end up giving them two losses and only the opportunity to play spoiler in the final week, something they could end up doing.


Mountain West Mountain: Boise State Broncos (10-2, 7-1)- The Boise State Broncos have just missed out on competing in the National Championship Game over the last few seasons, mainly because they have had one lapse of concentration during the course of the season.

It is unlikely they will run the table this time around too with some tough road games at Fresno State, BYU and Utah State on the schedule, while a trip to San Diego State is another tough game to get through. However, I expect Boise State to win two of three on the road against Conference foes from those games selected and that should give them the edge over Utah State in the Mountain Division.

The added benefit of getting two weeks to prepare for the game at Utah State should give Boise State the tie-breaker in the Division and the opportunity to play for the Conference title.

Mountain West West: San Jose State Spartans (10-2, 8-0)- This may be their first season in the Mountain West Conference, but I think San Jose State Spartans could find themselves competing for a title with a bit of luck falling their way.

The Spartans host their two closest rivals in the Division, while all four road games in Conference play look very winnable which should give the San Jose State the edge over Fresno State San Diego State.

My pick here could all rest on how San Jose State begin their Conference play when they host Utah State, who whipped them here last season... Win that game and confidence and home advantage could see the Spartans to a Conference title game.


Mountain West Championship: Boise State Broncos


MAC East: Bowling Green Falcons (9-3, 7-1)- This Division was won by the Kent State Golden Flashes a season ago, but I believe Bowling Green Falcons could win their first title since 2003 when they were part of the West.

I do think the one Conference loss will come against Kent State, who Bowling Green face on the road, but the Champions of last year have to visit Ohio and Ball State and also host Northern Illinois and may end one game out of winning the Division again.

Bowling Green host Ohio and that could prove to be the tie-breaker in the Division as the Falcons return 17 starters from a season ago.

MAC West: Northern Illinois Huskies (9-3, 7-1)- Northern Illinois will have to go some to get close to the success of last season with only 3 starters returning on the defensive side of the ball, but I do think they are in line to win their third consecutive MAC West title.

The Conference schedule certainly should suit the Huskies and the key is that they get to host Ball State in what could be another tie-breaker in the Division.

You can't rule out Ball State completely as they can certainly win the other seven Conference games they play and the game between the top two teams in the West on November 13 will be a winner takes all contest as far as I am concerned.


MAC Championship: Northern Illinois Huskies


Sun Belt Champion: Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns- The reigning Champions Arkansas State have lost their Quarter Back Ryan Aplin and could take a step back in Conference play this season. The team I believe will take advantage is the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns.

The key for the Ragin' Cajuns is their Defense to give them a little bit of help- the team can score plenty of points, but they allowed 30 points per game last season which was fifth in the Sun Belt Conference.

There are some tough games on slate for Louisiana, but the key is that they have their biggest rivals at home, although the game at Arkansas State may provide a sole loss in the Conference. However, the fact that Louisiana host the ULM Warhawks may be the game that gives them the tie-breaker in the Conference and help them pick up the title... As long as the Defense plays some sort of a part.


Conference-USA East: Marshall Thundering Herd (9-3, 7-1)- I have picked Marshall Thundering Herd to win this Division over the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, although I wouldn't be surprised if the latter do overturn that prediction.

Middle Tennessee host Marshall at the end of November and could decide which of these teams win the Division, especially as both teams will host the other threat to win this Division in East Carolina.

If Marshall win that game, I still don't think they will run the table with another tough road game at Tulsa Golden Hurricane who are one of the top teams in the West Division. Marshall at Middle Tennessee may be the Division decider as East Carolina have the toughest schedule of the top teams in the East.

Conference-USA West: Rice Owls (10-2, 7-1)- I think there isn't a lot that separates Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and Rice Owls in the Conference and I can see all three beating one another in matches to all possibly end with a 7-1 Conference record.

However, I believe the Rice Owls may have the biggest upside with 18 starters returning from last season when they won their final five games and even the fact that five of their eight Conference games are on the road, the only really difficult one is the game at Tulsa and they do host the Bulldogs.

Rice will need more out of their Defense if they are to win the Division, but the fact they have 10 returning starters and the improvement in the final five games last season suggest the Owls are in for a big season.


Conference-USA Championship: Rice Owls


There are also a few Independent schools that could have a real impact this season. I particularly like the BYU Cougars (9-3) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2)- the latter won a number of close games on their way to competing for the National Championship last season, but I feel they may come up short when they go to Michigan and Stanford, while the game against Arizona State in Arlington is another tough game for the Fighting Irish to overcome.


Thursday 29 August
Just got the one pick for the opening day of the College Football season, although will add Friday and Saturday games once I have shortlisted the ones I like.

USC Trojans @ Hawaii Warriors Pick: The Matt Barkley era ended in disappointing fashion for USC last season, but there is still enough talent for the Trojans to come to Hawaii and register a big win.

The Quarter Back position is still not decided in place of Barkley, but Hawaii are likely to have another disappointing season after their struggles of a year ago and there is still too much in the Southern California squad for them to cope with in my opinion.

I have to write this short blurb with little time, but this USC covering the spread is my first pick of the new season and I'll have more in the coming day.


Friday 30 August
I've already received the first bad break of the new season as USC, leading 30-5 with 20 seconds left, allow Hawaii to hit a 60 yard TD pass after giving up nothing more than a field goal and a safety in the first 59 minute and 20 seconds. It was a bit unlucky, but those backers of under the total points really had a bad break with 15 points scored in the last minute of the game which saw the game go from under to over the 38 point total.

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ SMU Mustangs Pick: There have been some changes made at Texas Tech in the Head Coach department which has the fans hopeful of a strong season, but they have to make a positive start in a tough road game at the SMU Mustangs.

It will be interesting to see if Garrett Gilbert is more comfortable in the SMU Offense this season after having a few struggles last year, although the Mustangs have lost a lot of players on both sides of the ball. The Red Raiders need to be careful with the ball as last season the Mustangs forced a lot of turnovers, but Texas Tech look like they could grab the win here.

SMU have been strong as the home underdog under June Jones and they have won their last 5 home openers so this is not an easy game for Texas Tech. However, I think the Red Raiders are going to be able to put together a lot of scoring drives this season and score a lot of points and they should be able to open with a win and a cover.


Saturday 31 August
Texas Tech were very impressive in their win yesterday and there are plenty of positive signs for them, although a tough Big 12 Conference will make it tough for them to get to a Bowl game.

Oklahoma State Cowboys v Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: If Mississippi State can keep tabs on Oklahoma State early in this game, this could be very close and the surprise is on, but the Bulldogs could be troubled by this game being played inside a dome where the Cowboys Offensive power can be aided.

The Bulldogs also suffered collapses in their defeats last season, losing all 5 games by an average of 21.4 points per game and the closest defeat was by 14 points.

Oklahoma State have big expectations this season and they can make a statement by knocking off a team from the SEC. If the Defense can use their aggression to knock Tyler Russell around, I like the Cowboys to win this one by at least 12 points.


Alabama Crimson Tide v Virginia Tech Hokies Pick: It has to be noted that the National Champion usually kicks off the new season in impressive style- since 1999, they have won every opening game by an average of over 30 points and Alabama added to that a season ago with a crushing win against the Michigan Wolverines.

Michigan are a better team than Virginia Tech are this season and I also think Alabama are just as strong as last season.

Don't believe the hype about unfocused business from the Crimson Tide who won't be allowed to rest on their laurels by Nick Saban and who have TWO weeks to prepare for their next game which is the important one at Texas A&M which has all sorts of National Championship ramifications.

Alabama have covered the spread in their last 6 games on a neutral field and they look a little too strong on both sides of the ball and I like them to cover.


UAB Blazers @ Troy Trojans Pick: There should be plenty of points scored in this one as both schools have more faith in what they can do with their Offense than what they can with the Defense.

Home field advantage should prove to be the difference in the game, as it has in the majority of their recent series, although it may also come down which of the teams has the ball last.

Troy just seem to have the edge on the Offensive side of the ball to think they will move the chains more consistently in this game and that may be enough to cover the spread.


Washington State Cougars @ Auburn Tigers Pick: Confidence won't be high in both programs for this season, but there is a belief that both will be going in the right direction come the end of the season.

Washington State have a brutal schedule and may struggle to win the 3 games they did a year ago, but the fans are just hoping to see some better performances from the team now that Mike Leach has had a season under his belt here.

The Auburn fans will also be excited about having Gus Malzahn back as Head Coach and will be believing he can spark and Offense that struggled all season.

Teams at the bottom of the SEC will still be a match for a lot of schools throughout the nation and I don't think this will be disproved and I expect Auburn to win the game. However, the Tigers are giving up a lot of points and Washington State may just earn the cover.


Boise State Broncos @ Washington Huskies Pick: A new season's opening weekend can be tough to read simply because of the high turnover of personnel at some schools, but that isn't the case for Washington.

There are a lot of factors that go in their favour including the revenge angle and the game being played in their new stadium which will make the fanbase a little louder.

However, I just feel the Boise State Broncos are a touch under-rated in this one considering how much winning the school has done under the guidance of Chris Peterson.

If the Defense can play surprisingly better than some may expect, the Offense can score enough points to keep this close at least and I'll take the points in this one.


MY PICKS: USC Trojans - 23.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Texas Tech Red Raiders - 4 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 11 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 21 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Troy Trojans - 4 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Washington State Cougars + 14 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Boise State Broncos + 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)