NFL Week 4 Picks 2022 (September 29-October 3)

It feels like we wait forever for the return of the College Football and NFL games, but all of a sudden you look up and a quarter of the regular season is about to enter the record books.

After a couple of mixed weeks for the NFL Picks, Week 3 has proved to be very productive with a 6-1 record for the selections and it gives me a platform to build upon moving forward.

I just don't want to give anything back immediately and so Week 4 is a pivotal one to make sure I avoid overthinking my selections.

Before I get into my Picks, I have a few thoughts about what we saw in Week 3.

After three weeks of the season and the defeat suffered by the New York Giants, there are only two teams left with perfect records.

Some may have pointed to the Philadelphia Eagles being one of those, but the Miami Dolphins have surprised most, especially when you think of the schedule they have had to navigate.

Out of the two teams, the Eagles feel more 'real' as they have largely dominated their games compared with the Miami Dolphins who have perhaps needed a few things to break their way in wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. It does not feel as sustainable, although the Dolphins should be targeting a strong run through to the Bye date considering they are now going to be facing Cincinnati, New York Jets, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Chicago and Cleveland through to the middle of November.

Miami should be looking at no worse than a 7-3 record by then and they can build some momentum, but Philadelphia have been the more impressive of the 3-0 teams remaining and with games against Jacksonville, Arizona and Dallas to come, they should be looking at extending that unbeaten run a few more weeks yet.

Seeing teams remain unbeaten this early into the NFL season is not uncommon, but we usually have a few teams who have an imperfect record.

This season is different with the Las Vegas Raiders the only team to have lost all three games.

Last season close games went their way and the Raiders made the PlayOffs, but in 2022 those margins are going against them and I do think it is a long road back in the AFC West.

The Raiders Bye is scheduled for mid-October, but they are under pressure to rally right now- before then Las Vegas are facing Denver and Kansas City and you would think the season is over if the Raiders are not able to win both of those.

When a Head Coach has three winning seasons in succession, during which time the team won a Super Bowl too, you would think one poor season could be forgiven.

That was not the case in Philadelphia as the Eagles fired Doug Pederson, who had fallen out with Quarter Back Carson Wentz.

Doug Pederson spent some time away from the game before returning as Head Coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars and the early signs are that the long-suffering Jags fans will finally have someone leading who can restore the franchise to better days.

Not many would have picked the Jaguars to be leading the AFC South after three games, but they are the sole team in the Division with a winning record and will be looking for a third win in a row in Week 4.

Of course sport always finds a way to make headlines- Doug Pederson will be taking his Jacksonville team into Philadelphia to try and upset the unbeaten Eagles.

And I don't doubt for a second the fans will not be spitting too much love in the direction of the Head Coach who took them to their sole Super Bowl Championship.

Injuries, injuries, injuries.

Nothing can frustrate a fanbase and a team more than seeing key players going down and there were more who are going to have to sit on the sidelines after another bruising week of NFL action.

Mac Jones is going to be a huge miss for the New England Patriots if he is going spend any length of time out of the lineup, but losing your Quarter Back is an obvious blow.

The injuries that really hurt come along the Offensive and Defensive Lines and some of the unsung players in the Secondary that may not earn the same headlines as the Quarter Backs, but who are absolutely essential for teams to achieve all they set out to do.

So often games are won or lost at the Line of Scrimmage and I do think those injuries are the ones that can determine the outcome of a game on a week by week basis and ultimately will dictate how the season ends up unfolding.

My Power Ranking Top Five: Philadelphia, Miami, Buffalo, Kansas City, Baltimore.

My Bottom Five: Las Vegas, Houston, Seattle, New York Jets, Washington.

The NFL Picks for Week 4 can be read below.

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: It might not be a style of win they can replicate too often in the NFL, but the Miami Dolphins (3-0) won't care about anything other than still being unbeaten right now. They are the only team in the AFC that can say that and have already beaten two of their Divisional rivals following the Week 3 win over the Buffalo Bills, although it may be one that has come with some cost.

Tua Tagovailoa is pushing hard to be ready for Thursday Night Football, but it does not say much about his chances of playing when Head Coach Mike McDaniel admitted his Quarter Back would be considered Questionable in a usual week and if this game was set for a Sunday/Monday. Instead the Dolphins are heading off to face the Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) on a short week and at this stage it would be considered a surprise if Tagovailoa is able to suit up.

The Bengals secured a win over the New York Jets on Sunday, but they have suffered disappointing losses to open the season and needed that win to snap a three game losing run. Fortunately for Cincinnati, the AFC North does not exactly look the deepest of Divisions and a win on Thursday Night Football would mean they share the same number as the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns before both of those teams play later this week.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals will feel they still have some questions to answer about whether they are completely over their Super Bowl defeat, but the win over the Jets at least gives them some confidence. Tee Higgins is a doubt for the home team, but I still expect Joe Burrow to have a strong game at the Quarter Back position with the weapons the Bengals have given him.

The Quarter Back has to be excited about his chances of backing up the win over the Jets when you see the holes the Miami Dolphins have had in the Secondary, despite the unbeaten start to the season. They have given up plenty of yards through the air and the Bengals have the weapons to take advantage, while Joe Mixon is likely to be a factor catching the ball out of the backfield.

I expect Joe Burrow to be given enough time behind this Offensive Line, which has struggled this season, and that is largely down to the inconsistent Miami pass rush. There have been times the Dolphins have made the big plays at the line of scrimmage, but the feeling is that Cincinnati can run the ball better than they have for much of the season and that should set Burrow up in third and manageable situations to negate the need to let plays develop for too long down the field.

The question for the Miami Dolphins in this game is more about how much Offensive output they can get with the little time to prepare for Thursday Night Football. A limited Tua Tagovailoa will find it tough, but Miami do have an effective backup in Teddy Bridgewater and I think the former starter for the Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos will be able to have a decent game in relief of Tagovailoa.

One problem for Miami is that they continue to be a little one-dimensional Offensively as they have struggled to run the ball with any real conviction. They are unlikely to have much more joy against the Cincinnati Defensive Line, even with DJ Reader expected to miss out for the home team, and that would force Teddy Bridgewater to play with accuracy from third and long spots.

Like Joe Burrow, Miami have surrounded their Quarter Back with strong Receiving threats and both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill have made strong starts to the season. However, Waddle is a little banged up and Teddy Bridgewater may not have the same chemistry as Tua Tagovailoa has shown he has with his new look Offensive skill players.

I still think there is a chance for Teddy Bridgewater to play well if Miami do have to call his number, but being in third and long means dealing with the Bengals pass rush and a Secondary which has played pretty well despite injuries.

Granted the Bengals numbers look better for the mere fact they have faced Mitchell Trubisky, Cooper Rush and Joe Flacco, but I do think a desperate team at home can have the edge on a short week.

For starters they are facing a Miami team that is coming in off an emotional win and this is the meat in the AFC East sandwich they are dealing with in Week 3 and Week 5. A banged up Quarter Back and a rough time being had by those remaining in Florida as they deal with Hurricane Ian are other distractions and I think the Cincinnati Bengals will be able to edge to a win and a cover of this mark.

The spread is a touch higher than I would have hoped for, but I think that is down to the fact that the Miami Dolphins will be going in with a backup Quarter Back. The rest of the team will want to step up for Teddy Bridgewater, but the struggles to run the ball may hurt Miami here.

Miami have been a really strong team to back at the window over the last couple of seasons, especially when they have been set as the underdog, but I think they used a lot of emotional and physical energy to beat the Buffalo Bills and it may leave them short. The Bengals have also covered in their last seven games against a team with a winning record, while they are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine Conference games and I think Cincinnati can be backed to end the last unbeaten record in the AFC on Thursday Night Football.

MY PICKS: Cincinnati Bengals - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 3: 6-1, + 8.92 Units (14 Units Staked, + 63.71% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

NFL Week 4 Picks 2016 (September 29-October 3)

It has been a couple of frustrating weeks for the NFL Picks with Indianapolis first blowing a cover and then earning one with scores inside the last two minutes of games. That's pretty annoying when you think it would have just taken one or two stops to turn this season around into a positive position, but I have at least felt I have not been too far away from a really big week.

Week 4 begins on Thursday 29th September with Thursday Night Football between Cincinnati and Miami and I am looking for a much better week to get this season moving in a position I expect it to go.

Picks from Week 4 will come out in the next couple of days once they are finalised, but I do have an offering from the Thursday Night game this week.


Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The second this game saw the spread move above seven points, I was keen on getting on the underdog and my favourite NFL team the Miami Dolphins. It has not been a great start to the season and Miami did their best to blow the game against the Cleveland Browns in Week 3, but they have put a win up and I loved Head Coach Adam Gase's reaction to the bumbling manner in which it came.

The 1-2 record the Miami Dolphins have is pretty much where they would have expected to be after three games, but the Cincinnati Bengals will be disappointed with their own 1-2 record heading into Week 4. They can't afford another slip this week with games against Dallas, New England and Washington to come before the bye week.

But those challenges might also mean Cincinnati are not completely focused on the Miami Dolphins having played Pittsburgh and Denver the last couple of weeks and with Andy Dalton looking a little banged up. His Offensive Line has not helped his cause especially with Tyler Eifert still missing and Muhammad Sanu moving on to Atlanta.

The Sacks given up by Cincinnati as Dalton perhaps has to hold onto the ball a little longer when AJ Green is double teamed is going to be an issue against the Miami Defensive Line. This is where the strength of the Miami Defensive unit lies and I think Dalton will be under siege for much of this game especially if the Miami Offense can sustain drives and give the Defensive Line the rest they need.

The rushing Defense is still an issue for Miami and so Jeremy Hill may be able to rip off some big gains to help Dalton remain in third and manageable spots. However the Bengals have not been opening holes as they would have liked and the Dolphins have to feel they can make some big plays up front which protects the Secondary and Linebackers who have not been as strong.

Arian Foster looks like he will be missing for Miami again, but Jarvis Landry is expected to suit up. The Miami Offensive Line have not done a good job opening holes for the Running Backs even if Jay Ajayi did score the winning Touchdown on the ground last week against the Cleveland Browns. The Dolphins are unlikely to have much success against the Bengals Defensive unit who will have Vontaze Burfict back at Linebacker to improve that rushing Defense a bit more.

That means the pressure is on Ryan Tannehill who looks unlikely to be the long time answer at Quarter Back for the Miami Dolphins. He has been fairly well protected and has two very good Receivers in Landry and DeVante Parker who can make plays for him, but Tannehill can be guilty of the big turnover which can cost his team.

Tannehill should have plenty of opportunity for a good night statistically and I do think Miami can move the chains consistently which makes this number of points vey appealing. Miami are 8-3 against the spread as the road underdog in games against teams that are not in the same Division and I think they will score enough points to make it very difficult for Cincinnati to cover the spread in the Thursday Night Football game.


Jacksonville Jaguars v Indianapolis Colts Pick: Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts came into the 2016 season with big expectations, but both have struggled through the first month of the season. This game is being played in London this year and could easily be featuring two 0-3 teams if not for a late big play from the Colts to beat the San Diego Chargers in Week 3.

This is a huge moment for Gus Bradley as Head Coach for the Jaguars who were really expected to take a significant step forward in 2016. Two close losses at home against the Green Bay Packers and the Baltimore Ravens and a blowout defeat the San Diego Chargers has put Bradley firmly on the hot seat and he wouldn't be the first Head Coach to lose his job after a defeat in London.

As has been the case through the history of the NFL, failing to be able to run the ball puts too much pressure on an Offense and that has been a big problem for Jacksonville. They are only averaging 2.8 yards per carry as TJ Yeldon and Chris Ivory have failed to produce and there isn't likely to be a lot of room up front in this one as that is an area with an injury hit Indianapolis Defense has played well.

Being kept in third and long means Blake Bortles is having to throw from behind the chains, but I also think the Quarter Back has not progressed to where I thought he would be in 2016. Bortles had a solid 2015, but the expectation was to build on that although the reality is that he has 5 Touchdown passes and 6 Interceptions through the first three weeks of the season.

The Colts are still banged up in the Secondary so Bortles has a chance for his best game of the season, but his Offensive Line hasn't always held up in pass protection. I am not sure the Colts pass rush is the best, but Bortles will need time for his Receivers to get downfield and should be able to move the chains if he is given that time and can avoid the big mistakes that have cost the Jaguars.

Gus Bradley is known for his time as Defensive Co-Ordinator with the Seattle Seahawks and his Jaguars team have actually played well on that side of the ball. They have a solid Defensive Line which should be able to limit what Frank Gore can do on the ground and the pressure up front is going to be key to stop Andrew Luck who has been inconsistent in 2016 himself.

Luck isn't operating behind the best Offensive Line, but the turnovers attributed to him have many times been from mistakes of his own. The Colts still have a high-octane passing Offense, but Luck will know he needs to be better if they are going to get back to the Play Offs having missed out last season despite being a pre-season favourite to win the Super Bowl.

There have been signs of improvement the last couple of weeks as Indianapolis were close to beating Denver on the road and then came back and beat the San Diego Chargers last week. I do think the Colts are the better team in this game and I am not sure the Jaguars are fully behind their Head Coach at the moment which can show up in these London games.

The Jaguars are just 1-2 against the spread and straight up in London and Indianapolis are 5-2 against the spread against them with Luck at Quarter Back. I think the Colts have played better than the record suggests the last couple of weeks and I can see them making a couple of big plays on the Defensive side of the ball to slow down Jacksonville drives and win this game.


Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: There wouldn't have been many fans who would have predicted the Atlanta Falcons would be sitting in a better position than the Carolina Panthers going into their Week 4 NFC South battle. Even fewer would have anticipated that after seeing Atlanta beaten at home by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1, but the Falcons have bounced back with impressive wins over the Oakland Raiders and New Orleans Saints, both on the road.

The Atlanta Offense has been rolling through the first three weeks of the season and they have scored at least 24 points in every game, while hitting 35 or more in their two wins. Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman are arguably the best duo at Running Back in the NFL and Matt Ryan continues to play as one of the better Quarter Backs in the League with a very solid Receiving unit.

I do think it is fair to say that the Falcons have not exactly been battling the elite Defenses in the NFL and while Carolina are not up with the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks, they are certainly better than what Atlanta have seen. To be fair to the Panthers, their 1-2 record is more down to Offensive struggles than Defensively and I can see them slowing down the Falcons.

The Defensive Line were very strong against the run last season and they have been able to hold teams to 3.4 yards per carry this time around. That might mean Atlanta employing more screens to get the likes of Coleman and Freeman into space, but ultimately Carolina should feel they can force the Falcons into third and long situations.

A Secondary that lost Josh Norman during the off-season have also not been too bad, although they haven't been helped by the Offensive turnovers. They have been able to turn the ball over and Matt Ryan will be under pressure by the pass rush up front which could see drives stall and having to settle for Field Goals rather than Touchdowns this week.

As I have said, the Carolina 1-2 record is thanks to Offensive mishaps as the Panthers have battled two of the best Defenses in the NFL in Denver and Minnesota. Cam Newton has struggled in those games, but this is a big chance for him to have a bounce back game in a Stadium where the Panthers lost their unbeaten record last season.

From one of the top Defenses, Carolina are now battling one of the worst in the NFL and I can't see Atlanta being able to create the issues Denver and Minnesota have. They have struggled to stop the run and I expect the Panthers will be able to do that even in the absence of Jonathan Stewart although the concern is that Newton was a little banged up last week and might not be risking picking up First Downs with his legs.

Newton's arm should suffice against a team giving up over 300 passing yards per game this season and who have allowed at least 28 points in every game. It does look like Newton has been under siege behind his Offensive Line, but those stats are skewed by the Defenses he has faced and I am not sure Atlanta are going to have the success the Broncos and Vikings did in bringing down the Quarter Back.

With Receivers like Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen to call upon, Newton is going to have his way with this Secondary and the revenge angle from last season as well as trying to erase the performance of Week 3 should be motivation enough.

My concern is that Carolina have not been a great favourite to back on the road but I think they are the better team. If this develops into a shoot out, you have to think the Panthers Defensive unit is stronger and can make the big plays to prevent Touchdowns. Atlanta are 7-2 against the spread as the home underdog but I will look for these teams to be leaving Week 4 with the same 2-2 record and will back the Panthers to have a rare cover on the road at Atlanta.


Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Pick: I hate looking at a spread and thinking 'how can Team A be so small a favourite to win?' but that is how I am feeling looking at the Detroit Lions when they visit the Chicago Bears. The home team are in disarray at the moment and they are lacking leaders, while injuries are severely restricting what the Chicago Bears are able to do.

Jay Cutler looks likely to be sitting again which mean Brian Hoyer gets the keys to the Offense for a second week in a row. Usually you would say he can hand the ball over to his Running Back against a Detroit Defensive Line that has struggled to stop the run this season, but Jeremy Langford has been ruled out too which means rookie Jordan Howard will try and make a big impact on the game.

The Bears haven't been able to stick with a running game simply as they have been far behind in the last couple of weeks, but the Offensive Line can have success opening holes for Howard while this game is close. However the Bears will struggle if they have to move away from the run and throw the ball as Hoyer can be hit and miss at Quarter Back.

Hoyer won't be helped by the fact that Alshon Jeffrey is banged up and Kevin White is still trying to find his feet at the NFL level following his injury which ruled him out through 2015. The Offensive Line has not been very good in pass protection but Detroit might be missing Ziggy Ansah again this week although I still think the Lions will be able to get after Hoyer in the obvious passing situations.

The Lions are looking to recover from back to back losses too, although they will feel they are to blame for not having a winning record. Matt Stafford and the Offense have played well but penalties have stalled drives and they will know they need to clean up their play if they are going to challenge in a Division where both the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings play.

It does have to be noted that the Chicago Defense hasn't played terribly, but they are being hurt with more and more injuries on a weekly basis. In Week 2 they allowed rookie sensation Carson Wentz to carve them up through the air and Week 3 it was the Dallas rushing Offense that ran them over. Theo Riddick gives Detroit the balance to go with Matt Stafford at Quarter Back and that is important for the Lions.

Even in the departure of Calvin Johnson, Detroit have been able to throw the ball effectively with Golden Tate and Marvin Jones a solid Receiving corps and Eric Ebron a very good pass catching Tight End. Kyle Fuller is the latest Defensive player to go down for Chicago and his the best player in the Secondary which makes it a big worry for the Bears in trying to slow down the Detroit Lions.

Chicago are now 1-11 in their last 12 games at Soldier Field and they are 2-10 against the spread while the Lions have won 6 in a row in the series. I really just don't see how the Bears can keep up with a strong Detroit Offensive line up and I am going to back the Lions who are not the best away favourite in recent seasons.


Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots Pick: Tom Brady might not have played through the first three weeks of the season, but the New England Patriots have not been bothered in the slightest as they have gone 3-0. It speaks volumes for how good Bill Belichick is that they have even gone down to their third string Quarter Back and won games, but it does look like Jimmy Garoppolo will be back behind Center having missed the win over Houston.

The Patriots have had a few extra days to prepare for their latest clash against a Rex Ryan squad when they face the Buffalo Bills in Week 4. It is going to be a challenge for the Patriots although Garoppolo has surprised with how well he has played in his time under Center.

He might be demanded to do more this week though as LeGarrette Blount is unlikely to find the running lanes he has in the opening three weeks. While the Buffalo Defensive unit has underachieved, they have been strong when it comes to stopping the run having held teams to under 100 yards per game at 3.4 yards per carry.

If they can limit the impact Blount is having on the game, New England will be forced to throw the ball behind an Offensive Line that is going to face the exotic blitzes that Ryan is likely to throw at them. That might give Garoppolo, or Jacoby Brissett something to think about even if the Buffalo Secondary has struggled against the pass.

Julian Edelman might have a decent game with Danny Amendola, but Rob Gronkowski is still coming back from an injury and is clearly not at 100%. The Bills have played well Defensively in the majority of their games so far this season even if it is possible to pass against them, but that hasn't shown up on the scoreboard as often.

The Bills Defense is going to need to play well if there is any hope of an upset because the Offensive unit have lost Sammy Watkins who is one of their best playmakers when healthy. New England had a huge performance in shutting out the Houston Texans, but the Defensive unit can be worn down and are missing a couple of key players including Rob Ninkovich.

Buffalo will likely be using a lot of LeSean McCoy who had a big game against Arizona last week and Tyrod Taylor is a threat to run the ball every time he has it at Quarter Back. With the Patriots allowing 4.4 yards per carry, Buffalo can control the clock as long as this is close with their ability to run the ball and that may open up a few passing lanes even though Watkins is out.

Teams have had to throw against New England to try and beat them which has not helped the numbers in the Secondary but it is difficult to know who will step up in place of Watkins. If the Patriots load the box, Buffalo might be dared to throw and that would worry me as Taylor has not shown the same poise which got him his huge contract extension.

Rex Ryan teams have gone 3-0-1 against the spread in their last 4 visits to New England with the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills. They are getting plenty of points in this one too and I think Buffalo will be able to cover even if it comes in the same manner as Miami when coming back to get within seven. Having more than a Touchdown worth of points looks too many to be giving the Bills and I will back Rex Ryan to find a cover in New England yet again.


Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets Pick: With the spread as it is and with the New York Jets having been blown out by the Kansas City Chiefs last week I was expecting the public to be pounding the Seattle Seahawks. Surprisingly that is not the case with Vegas looking at a 50-50 split on the tickets so far, but I am going to have a small interest in the New York Jets with the points.

I simply can't back Ryan Fitzpatrick off a performance like he had at Kansas City and with both Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall either banged up or out. He is facing an even better Defensive unit with the Seahawks in town and I am wondering how many points the Jets are going to score.

So why do I think they can cover with less than a Touchdown lead? Simply that I don't think Seattle are going to be scoring points for fun in this one either as Russell Wilson is banged up. The fact he is playing behind an Offensive Line which has more holes than a cheese is an issue against the strength of the Jets Defensive unit up front and Wilson may not be able to escape pressure as usual with both legs banged up.

Christine Michael has played well in place of the now retired Marshawn Lynch, but the Jets are very good against the run so the pressure will be on Wilson to make plays. He can throw the ball up and hope Jimmy Graham makes some big plays for him, but Seattle have been having a hard time scoring outside of playing San Francisco and this looks another game when they might struggle.

I do wish this was at least three points in favour of the Jets but I think they can be backed for a small interest as Seattle look to get healthier in their bye week next week.


Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: There are a few small road favourites that I seem to be backing this week and that includes the Denver Broncos who are travelling to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they look to move to 4-0 on the season.

It has been a tough start for Tampa Bay who have dropped to 1-2 despite winning at the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1. They have made mistakes in the losses to the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams which the Buccaneers have not been able to overcome, and mistakes against this Denver team is only going to lead to another loss.

The Broncos have loved feasting on mistakes made by the Offenses they have faced and they remain one of the best Defensive units in the NFL. Doug Martin looks to be missing again for the Buccaneers which is a big weapon they are losing and it will be up to Charles Sims to find a way to run the ball against the Broncos.

That is more to do with the Offensive Line struggling to open consistent holes for Tampa Bay than Denver's early performances against the run though. It might mean Sims can have some success in this one but the bigger question is about Jameis Winston and whether he can have a cleaner game than the last couple of games have been.

I like Winston, but he is in for a big challenge against the Broncos team who have a fierce pass rush and will get after the Quarter Back any time he is in obvious passing situations. There will be times Winston can throw it up for Mike Evans to make plays, but to get the chains moving consistently does look very tough for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this game.

Trevor Siemian might be 3-0 as a starter but the first two games he has to have been thanking the Defensive unit for those wins. Last week he did have his best game for Denver in a win over the Cincinnati Bengals and Siemian has to feel he can back that up against this Secondary which has struggled to stop passing units.

Both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas were very much in action last week and Siemian will be looking to feed his top Receivers against this Secondary who have struggled for much of the season. Teams have dared the Broncos to throw with their inexperienced Quarter Back but Tampa Bay will have to show they can defend the pass better than they have if they are going to have success in this one.

The Buccaneers have been strong against the run which might mean they can devote more men to the coverage perhaps, but a similar level of performance to last week will give Siemian a chance to give Denver another win behind his arm. I do think Tampa Bay are better than their record, but moving the chains consistently without mistakes against this Broncos team will be tough and Tampa Bay are a poor 7-20-1 against the spread as the home underdog since 2009.

I would have preferred this to be under three points, but I do think the Broncos are the better team and can cover on the road.


New Orleans Saints @ San Diego Chargers Pick: There looks to be no change in the New Orleans Saints Defensive performances this season and that is going to make it very difficult to win games. Sean Payton has to be on the hot seat as the Head Coach despite winning a Super Bowl for the Saints and they are in a desperate position to avoid a 0-4 start when they travel to the San Diego Chargers.

The Chargers must be wondering how they are 1-2 themselves with a big lead blown at the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1 and then losing in Week 3 inside the last two minutes against the Indianapolis Colts. The suggestions they are still looking to move from San Diego to Los Angeles won't help matters if they lose again, but the Chargers have won their only home game and will expect to make it two from two in California.

It is hard to see how the New Orleans Saints will be able to slow down the Chargers when Philipp Rivers has the ball in his hands. They can't stop the run so Melvin Gordon could have a very big game, and there has been limited pass rush pressure which means the Secondary has been carved up.

There might be some encouragement that the likes of Kenny Vaccaro could return this week which will give New Orleans some real help in the Secondary. However I have to think San Diego are going to have a real chance to score 28 points or more, but the key for me is that I think the New Orleans Saints are able to match them score for score.

That makes the four points spread look a touch too high to me, especially if Drew Brees can get back to the mistake free Football he had been playing before the Interceptions against the Atlanta Falcons. Turnovers could be a huge part of this game with the team winning that battle likely to win the game, but New Orleans can match San Diego if it comes to simply looking at the potential for scoring drives.

Payton has complained that there hasn't been the balance on the Offense he would have liked and that means seeing more of Mark Ingram this week. He should be able to establish the run as long as New Orleans aren't chasing the game too much, and that will make life all the more comfortable for Brees who was a former Chargers starting Quarter Back.

Brees is facing a Secondary that have given up big yardage through the air and the quickness of the Quarter Back's throws means the Chargers pass rush is unlikely to rattle him. The Saints have never been as good outdoors as they have inside Domes, but Brees should be more than aware of how the conditions will play in San Diego and I think he will have a huge game statistically.

That should see the Saints stay with San Diego and potentially upset them outright, but taking the points with a team who are 6-3-1 against the spread as the road underdog in recent games is worth taking.


Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Week 3 was an embarrassment for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but they did see Le'Veon Bell return in time for Week 4 and the side are 2-1 which is a decent enough start to the season. The Pittsburgh Steelers are looking to bounce back from that hammering at the Philadelphia Eagles and with Bell back in the line up they look a lot more dangerous Offensively than they have.

The Steelers need all of the Offensive help they can get with Antonio Brown not being supported by the rest of the Receiving corps since Martavis Bryant went down with suspension. DeAngelo Williams has played well when running the ball, but Bell is a big threat catching the ball and gives the Steelers another crease.

Bell may also be lined up in the slot so the Kansas City Chiefs will have to keep an eye on the Running Back who has been chomping at the bit to go. The Chiefs Defensive unit could be missing Marcus Peters, who some say is the best Corner Back in the NFL, and they have not been as effective shutting down the running game as they perhaps would have liked.

Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers should show they are better than they showed in Week 3 and I do think they can move the chains effectively in this one. I am looking for Bell to have a big game, not just because I have him in my Fantasy Football team, but he is one of the most diverse Running Backs in the League and can be a threat carrying or catching.

The Chiefs should have their success too because the Steelers have generated next to nothing pass rush. That should mean Alex Smith can use his check down passes to success with time to keep the chains moving and I do think he will have a decent game too.

While it is close, Kansas City can use the returning Jamaal Charles to join Spencer Ware in having some success running the ball, although that is not likely to be a strong point of attack for the Chiefs. Both players are a threat in the screen game though and that might be the best way Kansas City can keep the chains moving in this one with the Steelers having a few issues Defensively when it comes to their health.

It will work while the game is close, but Pittsburgh have a quick strike Offense and I can see the Chiefs struggling to stay with them if they fall a couple of scores behind. I do think Pittsburgh are the better team and look underrated after being blown out in Week 3 and I do expect a response from them.

Pittsburgh are 12-6 against the spread as the home favourite and I think they can improve on that again in Week 4 as they cover against the Kansas City Chiefs in a primetime Sunday game.


New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: The Minnesota Vikings have battled through the injuries they have suffered on the Offensive side of the ball and they are looking to remain one of three teams to be unbeaten in the 2016 season. A win would mean they are one of two teams that have gotten to 4-0 as their new Stadium gets ready to host Monday Night Football for the first time.

Their opponents the New York Giants might believe they should be coming into Week 4 at 3-0 too, but they blew a big lead in losing at home to Washington last week. Now they face arguably the top two teams in the NFC in back to back road games on primetime and injuries in the Secondary certainly make the Giants vulnerable here.

The Giants will look to make Minnesota a little one-dimensional as they have actually played the run pretty well this season and won't be worried about Adrian Peterson. I don't think the Giants will respect the likes of Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon as much and instead might devote more men into coverage to protect the banged up Secondary.

It might not matter with the way Sam Bradford has played the last two weeks as he refuses to make the mistakes that can cost the Vikings and instead is convinced the Defensive unit will help him when things are not going smoothly Offensively. That is a smart way to work and I think Bradford can have a decent outing, particularly linking up with Stefon Diggs, but the headlines are likely to be grabbed by the Defense again this week.

There is no doubting that Eli Manning and the New York Giants have a strong passing game, but the Quarter Back is likely to be under siege every time he steps back to throw. The Vikings have a fierce pass rush which has made Quarter Backs like Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton find nowhere to go and Manning is not nearly as mobile as those two while also playing behind an Offensive Line that might struggle to contain those rushes.

It's not like the Giants can establish a strong running game to take the heat away either so Manning could be under considerable pressure to find the time to hit his triple threat at Receiver. There will be times the Giants are able to do that, but I can see a lot of their drives bogging down as penalties, Sacks, and Manning have to look for the check down pass prevents them from sustaining any consistency Offensively.

The Minnesota Defense has made some big plays already in the opening month of the season and I can see that unit making the difference in this one too. Last December they picked off Manning three times and forced three fumbles (although didn't recover one of those) in a blow out of the Giants at home and I think the Defense is going to make those kind of big plays to help Minnesota cover this number on Monday Night Football too.

I'd be surprised if it is another blow out considering the injuries Minnesota have and the strength New York have up front, even with the injuries in the Secondary, but I do think the Vikings pull away in this one. Picking a favourite in a primetime game isn't the best option with the struggles they have had recently, but Minnesota can make it three from three in Week 4 and I am going to back them to cover in this one.

MY PICKS: Miami Dolphins + 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 2 Points @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Detroit Lions - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New York Jets + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 3 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 4 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 4 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Week 3: 2-3-1, - 2.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 22.70% Yield)
Week 2: 5-5, - 0.70 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.50% Yield)
week 1: 4-3-1, + 0.29 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.93% Yield)