Week 9 of the College Football 2020 season has sneaked up on me and after a positive Week 8 to bounce back from the horrific Week 7 means there is some momentum behind the Picks.
Purdue Boilermakers @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: The Big Ten Conference finally got underway in the 2020 season in Week 8, but that does mean there is some uncertainty about the teams taking part and how prepared they are for the coming year. You can read too much into one result but the Purdue Boilermakers have to be respected for the manner of their win over the Iowa Hawkeyes, although I would not be overly concerned about the Illinois Fighting Illini's loss to the Wisconsin Badgers.
That was against a motivated Divisional rival who had been beaten by the Fighting Illini in 2019 and I do expect a reaction from Illinois who have a number of experienced players back from last season.
Lovie Smith was saved by a number of his players in 2019 and he would likely have not been the Head Coach in 2020 if Illinois had not finished with a 6-6 record in the regular season. Bowl Games preparation would have helped and I do think the Fighting Illini will be able to show a lot more, especially in the home opener.
There will have been a week of adjustments that Illinois would have to get through but I think the Offensive Line will show better against the Boilermakers Defensive Line than they were able to do against Wisconsin. However, the Fighting Illini were able to run the ball with some effectiveness and it was only because the game got out of hand that Illinois had to change tact, but that is not expected to be the case in Week 9.
Last week the Boilermakers gave up almost 200 yards on the ground and I do think Illinois can have successes in this one which will give their Defensive unit a chance to rest unlike in their last game. Penalties have to be avoided to make sure Illinois stay in front of the chains, especially as Illinois did not have almost any success throwing the ball.
Purdue have to be well aware of what Illinois are going to try and do and they also have revenge on their mind having been upset as big home favourites against this opponent last season. Head Coach Jeff Brohm missed the win over the Iowa Hawkeyes in Week 8, but he will be back patrolling the sidelines on Saturday as he looks to inspire his team to a 2-0 start.
Rondale Moore is less likely to be available despite his decision to return to the Football team as soon as it was announced that a Big Ten season would be played. You have to credit Moore for reversing his decision, but he has been injured and instead the focus for the Illinois Secondary may be on David Bell who was the main Purdue Receiving threat in Week 8 when taking it to the Hawkeyes.
It may fall on the passing game to move the chains for the Boilermakers if Illinois' Defensive Line are as stout against the run as they were against Wisconsin. They may have given up 182 yards on the ground in that loss, but those came on 54 carries for the Badgers and Purdue did struggle to push the ball on the ground last week which makes it feel like a game in which they passing game is going to be key.
As good as the Fighting Illini Defensive Line played, the Secondary allowed some big plays to an inexperienced Quarter Back Wisconsin sent out to the field on the opening weekend of Big Ten Football. They can get some pressure up front, but it is unlikely that Illinois will shut down the pass and that is the reason the Boilermakers are favourites.
Even then this feels like a big number for the road team to cover even if the lack of fans is going to have a serious impact on College Football as it has on many sports around the world. I think the Fighting Illini can run the ball well enough to at least control the clock and I do think they are going to have a big reaction to the poor loss in Week 8 when beaten comprehensively by the Wisconsin Badgers.
The Boilermakers are 3-7-1 against the spread in their last eleven games as the road favourite, but they do have a decent record in recent games against Illinois. However I do like the Fighting Illini here with their 5-2 record against the spread in their last seven as the underdog and I think getting more than 7 points is important in what feels like could be a close game.
Indiana Hoosiers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: Two teams who are coming off upsets in the Big Ten on the opening weekend of the season for the Conference are meeting in Week 9. The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have struggled in recent seasons, but gave incoming Head Coach Greg Schiano the perfect start to his second go around with the team.
Schiano did a really good job with Rutgers before moving on and his return along with the road win over the Michigan State Spartans will have given the team a huge boost.
Now they are a home underdog against the Indiana Hoosiers who upset the Penn State Nittany Lions in Week 8 with an Overtime win by a single point. The Hoosiers finished fourth in the Big Ten East last season but they did win eight games in the season and Tom Allen is looking for more this time around having won that game with Penn State.
Much is going to depend on how the Hoosiers have handled the emotion of beating the Nittany Lions and they are going to have to be at their best if Rutgers Defense plays anywhere near the level of last week. Of course the Michigan State Offense is not as strong as the one Indiana will be trotting out to the field and the experience the Hoosiers have on the Offensive side of the ball has to be respected.
Indiana may have struggled against a much vaunted Penn State Defensive unit, but Michael Penix Jr and the other players returning from last season should have more success in this one. However it may not be easy to run the ball against the Rutgers Defensive Line and that will mean it is up to Penix Jr at Quarter Back to make the plays and keep the chains moving.
He has to be aware of the kind of turnovers Rutgers were able to create last week though and it is important for Michael Penix Jr to play as clean a game as is possible. If he does that Indiana should have success in this one, although the Quarter Back has to be very aware of the kind of pressure the Scarlet Knights were able to generate up front in their first game.
Turnovers really helped the Rutgers Offense in Week 8 of the season and I think this is a much bigger test for them even though they should have a little bit of success running the ball against the Indiana Defensive Line. Noah Vedral could be a dual-threat from the Quarter Back position and he will need to be as wary as Michael Penix Jr when throwing the ball against an Indiana team that was very good at turning the ball over in their opening game.
He will at least give Rutgers the chance to establish the run and at least help his team stay competitive in this one which makes the points being given to the underdog look appealing.
This is not a great spot for Indiana having upset Penn State and with Michigan, Michigan State and then Ohio State coming up. There is every chance they could overlook the Scarlet Knights who have long been the whipping boys of the Big Ten and the emotion of the upset win over the Nittany Lions could have a detrimental impact on the favourites here.
Indiana are 0-8 against the spread in their last eight as the road favourite and you do have to wonder if they can cope with this spot. The Scarlet Knights will be motivated to make up for the 35-0 embarrassing defeat to this Conference rival last season, while they have been more competitive in their last two home losses to Indiana which have been decided by 7 and 6 points respectively.
Taking the points here looks to be the right play.
LSU Tigers @ Auburn Tigers Pick: Win this game and you may have an outside chance of chasing down the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC West, but the two Tigers from the Division know another loss will be difficult to chalk off. While Ed Orgeron has some real credit in the bank with LSU having guided them to a National Championship earlier in the year, Gus Malzahn could be under pressure with the Auburn Tigers at the end of what has been a poor season to date.
Running the table is all Malzahn will be looking to do with the Auburn Tigers and they did manage to beat Mississippi Rebels in Week 8 to move to 3-2 in the Conference. A couple of plays here and there could easily have given this set of Tigers a better record, but also a much worse one and there is pressure on the entire team.
They are facing a LSU Tigers team who had an unexpected two week break due to Covid-19 and one that came out of their Bye Week with a victory over the South Carolina Gamecocks. It was an impressive win and perhaps even more so when you think LSU were missing Quarter Back Myles Brennan and had to give inexperienced TJ Finley the chance to start.
The youngster took advantage of his opportunity having thrown for 265 passing yards with two Touchdown passes and a single Interception. That saw Ed Orgeron praising the performance of TJ Finley, although the Head Coach admitted that Brennan remains the starter when he is healthy.
That does not look like happening this week for Myles Brennan and it may be more difficult for TJ Finley against the Auburn Secondary which has played with a bit more confidence of late. They have held their last three teams on average to a little over 200 passing yards and that number has been aided by a strong performance from the Defensive Line which has at least found a way to force teams to grind things out on the ground.
That does not look like happening this week for Myles Brennan and it may be more difficult for TJ Finley against the Auburn Secondary which has played with a bit more confidence of late. They have held their last three teams on average to a little over 200 passing yards and that number has been aided by a strong performance from the Defensive Line which has at least found a way to force teams to grind things out on the ground.
A key for Auburn is going to be to try and rattle TJ Finley into mistakes, although the young Quarter Back should be well protected by his Offensive Line. That will keep the pocket clean enough to make plays and I do think LSU will have some success having scored over 50 points in their win over South Carolina in Week 8.
Quarter Back questions are not only something that the LSU Tigers have to answer as Auburn continue to be asked about Bo Nix and whether there needs to be a change made at the position. Some key plays at big moments from Nix eased the pressure after he led Auburn to a late win over the Mississippi Rebels, but this is a different level of test this week and Bo Nix has been inconsistent at best.
A couple of key players on the Offensive Line may also be missing for Auburn, but even then it is essential for the Tigers to stay in front of the chains. They have been running the ball very well this season through Tank Bigsby and it is important for Gus Malzahn to ensure his team feed the Running Back as much as possible.
There has been room to run on the LSU Defensive Line and I think that is important for Auburn here to control the clock and find some balance Offensively which will also make things a little more comfortable for Bo Nix. The LSU pass rush would be slowed down if Auburn are running the ball efficiently and it will also mean Bo Nix has time to make throws against a LSU Secondary which is not playing as well as they would have liked.
The spread has moved down from the original line and it makes me believe the sharps are on the same side as the public here- namely they are backing the home underdog Tigers to cover.
I like Auburn too as I believe they will have the balance Offensively which will put pressure on a young LSU Quarter Back in his first big road start. No fans will help TJ Finley, but the Auburn Tigers are a team who have been underachieving and should be able to keep him cold by running the ball at this LSU Defensive Line.
LSU have won the last three in this Conference rivalry, but Auburn are 10-3 against the spread in their last thirteen home games. The road team do have some very strong trends to point at, but those have come during the Joe Burrow era and I think the drop off from the 2019 National Champions will give Auburn the edge in this big SEC game between the two teams who are most likely to chase in Alabama in the Division.
I'll take the points as they are.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick: The news that Trevor Lawrence has tested positive for Covid-19 may just have put a different slant on the ACC Conference in Week 9. While the Clemson Tigers are not likely to be beaten by the Boston College Eagles, the unbeaten Notre Dame Fighting Irish are next up on deck and it could be the key game of the season in this Conference.
The Covid-19 pandemic has meant College Football has had to have a different look than normal and that also meant the Notre Dame Fighting Irish were invited to participate in the ACC. They have taken advantage of that as they have begun the season with a 5-0 record and they are 4-0 in Conference play which means Notre Dame are right alongside Clemson at the top of the standings.
Playing in the ACC and having that game with Clemson on deck is a huge opportunity for the Fighting Irish to announce their intentions to play in the College Football PlayOff later this year. They can't afford to overlook the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets who are coming in off back to back blow out losses and have a 2-3 record in the ACC this season.
Geoff Collins does not want his Georgia Tech team to be criticised despite the fact their four defeats in 2020 have come by an average of 33 points per game. Of course that number is heavily influenced by the embarrassing 67 point loss to the Clemson Tigers, but there has to be a slight worry for Yellow Jackets fans that they are facing a team who will be keen to put some style points on the board.
This isn't the Yellow Jackets of old who were heavily reliant on the triple-option Offense and that means Jeff Sims has been able to showcase some of his arm talent as well as his ability to make plays with his legs. The young Quarter Back is going to grow from his experiences of 2020 and while he has played well enough, Sims will also appreciate that he is going to be facing a top Defensive unit in Week 9 which will present a big challenge for him.
The Fighting Irish Defensive Line has been able to clamp down on the run and that means they are forcing teams to become a little one-dimensional with their play-calling. Sometimes it can mean the Secondary is dealing with worse numbers than their ability, but Notre Dame are also holding their season opponents to under 180 passing yards per game and it is the Defensive unit which has really impressed.
The Fighting Irish Defensive Line has been able to clamp down on the run and that means they are forcing teams to become a little one-dimensional with their play-calling. Sometimes it can mean the Secondary is dealing with worse numbers than their ability, but Notre Dame are also holding their season opponents to under 180 passing yards per game and it is the Defensive unit which has really impressed.
They may not always make the headlines the same was as the Offense will, but Notre Dame also have a significant pass rush that is managing to get home and I do think they can restrict this Georgia Tech team.
Ian Book will then be looking to pick up from where he left off last week in the blow out defeat of the Pittsburgh Panthers. That is arguably the best performance of the season from a Quarter Back who has now won twenty-five of his twenty-eight starts as Notre Dame signal caller.
The Quarter Back is only averaging a little over 200 passing yards per game for the season, but he threw for over 300 yards last week in the win over the Panthers. Ian Book will be looking for another statement making performance as he boosts his own personal profile and also helps the Fighting Irish improve their current Number 4 Ranking and this looks like the kind of game in which he can thrive.
Georgia Tech have simply not been able to stop teams throwing on them and the Secondary have also not been able to turn the ball over as they would have liked. It should mean Ian Book is able to pick up from where he left off in Week 8, although one of the reasons that he does not have the eye-catching numbers is that the Notre Dame Offensive Line have been dominant in setting up the run.
All season Notre Dame have been able to rip off some big gains on the ground which means Ian Book is not being asked to do too much himself and I do think the Fighting Irish can have real success in this one. The Yellow Jackets Defensive Line have allowed over 225 yards per game on the ground on average across their last three games and I expect the road team to be able to do whatever they like Offensively.
Notre Dame have covered in their last four games as the road favourite, although I can't ignore the fact that this is a big number. However Georgia Tech are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten games as the home underdog and I think the Fighting Irish will be ready to make a statement here before their huge Week 10 game against the Clemson Tigers which is all but a game that will decide the top spot in the ACC and likely an unbeaten season for one of those teams.
I like the Fighting Irish to enter Week 10 with another win and a cover.
MY PICKS: Illinois Fighting Illini + 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights + 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Auburn Tigers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 20.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
UCF Knights - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Louisville Cardinals + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
