NFL Week 11 Picks 2020 (November 19-23)

I will update this thread in the coming days ahead of the full selection of NFL Picks from the Sunday and Monday games in Week 11.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: When you take a lot at the NFC you do have the feeling that the NFC West is going to provide at least three of the seven teams that are expected to make the PlayOffs. Only one will be guaranteed to host a PlayOff game and that is the Divisional Winner which means the importance of the Divisional Games will not be lost on any of the leading teams looking for a run towards the Super Bowl.

This week on Thursday Night Football we do have the chance to enjoy a really important game as the Seattle Seahawks host the Arizona Cardinals. Both teams are at 6-3 in the NFC West, but the Cardinals are 2-0 in the Division and the Seattle Seahawks are 1-2 which really means the importance of this game is very much with the hosts.

Another defeat for the Seahawks would mean they have dropped three games in a row having gone down to the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams in their last couple of games. Russell Wilson has been huge at Quarter Back, but his last couple of performances have not been up to scratch and Seattle have also been beaten by the Cardinals this season to only add to the importance of winning this one.

While the Seahawks have been trending downwards, the Arizona Cardinals beat the Bills with a 'Hail Murray' in Week 10 to earn the victory in four of their last five. It was a close game, but Arizona probably deserved to win even if the manner was quite stunning.

Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins already have a very good chemistry and they are likely to pick up from where they left off with that last second win over the Buffalo Bills. Injuries have ravaged the Seattle Secondary and that has meant they have given up some big plays throughout the season and in recent weeks even the 'bend, don't break' formula has not been working for them.

The ability to scramble means Murray is able to get away from pressure and make plays down the field and he is not afraid to use his legs to move the chains down the field. He is arguably the most dangerous Quarter Back in the NFL at the moment with the balance he is able to put together on the Offense and he should be able to have some success throwing throughout this game.

However there are one or two areas in which Seattle have shown some improvement which may give their whole Defensive unit a boost. While they have struggled to defend the pass, the pass rush has been able to get to opposition Quarter Backs and the Seahawks Defensive Line has also been able to clamp down on the run in recent outings too.

It may at least give the Seahawks a chance to slow down a couple of drives and force Field Goals rather than Touchdowns and may offer Russell Wilson the chance to bounce back after a couple of difficult games.

At one point Wilson was the frontrunner for the MVP award by a considerable distance, but that is not the case now. He is still playing well, but perhaps forcing too many throws and making some bad Football decisions which is a huge cost for any Quarter Back.

Russell Wilson did have a very good game against the Arizona Cardinals in the narrow loss to this Divisional rival in the desert earlier this season. With Chris Carson back at Running Back I do think Seattle will be able to have some success moving the ball on the ground in this one against an Arizona Defensive Line which has given up 5 yards per carry across their last three games.

The Running Back has missed some time, but his threat may at least offer Russell Wilson some balance Offensively which can see him expose the injuries in the Arizona Secondary. The Seattle Offensive Line has not been protecting Wilson as well as they would have liked, but running the ball also means the Quarter Back does not have to hold onto the ball as long as usual, while the Cardinals have struggled to generate much of a pass rush.

The potential absence of Tyler Lockett will be a blow for Seattle, but DK Metcalf can bounce back in this one after a below par showing in Week 10. The big Wide Receiver was shut down by Jalen Ramsey in Week 10, but he has shown he is not likely to have two bad games in a row and only a big holding flag prevented him from winning the game for Seattle when playing Arizona in the first meeting in 2020.

Arizona do have a decent record in this part of the North West in recent years with wins in three of their last four in Seattle. However that has not helped them complete the sweep of the Seahawks and I do think the home team will bounce back after the two road defeats suffered in succession.

There are some strong trends favouring the underdog and road team in this series which is going to see the Cardinals well backed, especially off their late win in Week 10. However Seattle are 32-15-4 against the spread in their last fifty-one games off a loss and they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite.

The Cardinals have been a team who tend to play up to the level of opponent they are facing and I do have to respect how well they have played as the underdog under Kliff Kingsbury. Even with that in mind I do think Russell Wilson is ready to bounce back from a couple of sub-par performances and I will back the Seahawks to win this vital NFC West rivalry game and get back on track.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Washington Football Team Pick: It says everything about how poor the NFC East is that the Washington Football Team come into Week 11 with a worse record than the Cincinnati Bengals, but are in a much better place when it comes to potentially reaching the NFL PlayOffs in January.

Not often will you see a team with a 2-7 record going into Week 11 of the NFL season and they only 1.5 games out of the Division lead, but that is the case for Washington in the NFC East where all of the teams have losing records. They have a big game coming on Thursday as they earn the Thanksgiving Day spot at the Dallas Cowboys, but Ron Rivera has to make sure Washington are focusing on the Week 11 game as they look to put the pressure on their Divisional rivals.

The Cincinnati Bengals have the same number of wins as Washington, but they have a tie on the board which means they are holding a 2-6-1 record. No one expected the Bengals to push towards the PlayOffs with a rookie at Quarter Back, and they are coming off a blow out loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but Cincinnati have to be happy with the majority of what they have seen from their team in 2020.

Joe Burrow is going to have a learning curve with a losing team, but he has shown enough to justify going with the Number 1 Pick in the last NFL Draft. He has found a real connection with fellow rookie Tee Higgins, although Burrow might have to do without the Wide Receiver this week.

Tee Higgins may be missing, but Joe Mixon is trending towards a return and that will be important for Joe Burrow and the entire Cincinnati Offense. The Offensive Line have played well to open holes for the backup Running Backs, but Mixon is a solid player at the position and he should have a chance to put up some good numbers against the Football Team Defensive Line.

It is really important to get the run established for the visitors who have struggled to protect Burrow when he drops back to throw, and now facing a Washington team who love to get to the Quarter Back. That pressure up front has helped the Secondary make some big plays, but if Cincinnati are able to run the ball it should give Joe Burrow a real chance to move the chains through the air too and at least make Washington have to score enough points to beat them.

That won't be easy for Washington despite the strong second half display from Alex Smith which suggests the Quarter Back has firmly put the terrible injury which has cost him two years of his career behind him. Alex Smith should have an easier match up than Joe Burrow as he is likely to be well supported by a ground game, but also should be dealing with a relatively clean pocket for much of this game.

However Alex Smith has not always looked comfortable throwing the ball down the field and instead has looked for short passes to be turned into significant gains. That has seen his Running Backs become heavily targeted when they seep out of the backfield and we should see more of the same on Sunday in Week 11.

It might be a winning combination in this game, especially if Burrow is without his big target in Tee Higgins.

I don't find it easy backing Washington because they are 2-7 and have been beaten twice by the pretty poor New York Giants team. It makes them hard to trust, but they do look to have a good match up against the Bengals even if the Thanksgiving Day game against the Dallas Cowboys could be a potential distraction for the home team.

Ron Rivera has made it clear that all of the remaining six games are going to matter to Washington if they are going to make a surprising run into the PlayOffs, but much will depend on whether the Defensive Line can rattle Joe Burrow into mistakes. If they can do that, Alex Smith should have the balance on the Offensive side of the ball which allows him to move the ball with some consistency and give the Football Team a chance to win.

The trends are pointing to the Cincinnati Bengals who have been a strong underdog to back and the Washington Football Team have not covered as a favourite in any of their last four games in that situation. However, I do think Washington may have the slight edge thanks to the balance they can find Offensively and I will look for them to head to Dallas with some confidence.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Cleveland Browns Pick: There is another NFC East versus AFC North battle to be played in Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season and that is a game in which the Cleveland Browns will be hosting the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Browns moved to 6-3 for the season when beating the Houston Texans at home last week, although there would have been a huge amount of people in Vegas either cheering or crying at Nick Chubb's decision to step out of bounds before scoring a Touchdown inside the last two minutes in that game. That meant the Browns failed to cover, but Chubb wasn't concerning himself about that and instead his focus is on making sure Cleveland keep winning games.

Nick Chubb returned from an injury and with Kareem Hunt they are forming a tandem that will be difficult for any team to stop. The 3-5-1 Philadelphia Eagles may be leading the NFC East, but this is a team who saw their two game winning run ended by Divisional rivals the New York Giants in Week 10 and whose Defensive Line have shown little appetite to stop the run in recent games.

That has to be a major concern when going up against the Browns Offensive Line which has been very strong all season when it comes to opening up lanes for Hunt and Chubb. Both players should have another strong game coming off big performances against the Houston Texans and Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are also going to be important parts of the passing game as Baker Mayfield looks to exploit the screens to help keep the chains moving.

Baker Mayfield has been well protected by the Offensive Line too, but it does feel like a game in which the conditions will mean a heavy reliance on the ground game to keep the chains moving as far as the Browns are concerned. That should ease any Philadelphia pass rush and also mean Mayfield is able to make quick throws when ahead of the chains as Cleveland look for another win over a team they should be beating.

The Eagles are perhaps better than their record suggests, but even as they are getting healthier they are struggling to put the consistency together that they need. This should be a game in which they show better than they did in their defeat to the New York Giants, but it is hard to trust the visitors who can't seem to get out of their own way.

Miles Sanders is back and he will be complemented by Boston Scott and the two Running Backs should have a chance to help the Eagles move the ball on the ground. Again, the conditions will dictate the importance of being able to run the ball and for much of the season the Eagles have been able to do that with success.

It is so important to stay competitive and ease some of the pressure that Quarter Back Carson Wentz is clearly feeling as he perhaps tries too hard to make good things happen. Usually that has resulted in bad things happening and Wentz will know he is likely to feel the heat from the Cleveland pass rush whenever he is in third and long spots which increases the importance of being able to run the ball.

There are healthier Receivers to throw to as well as for Carson Wentz, but he has not really been making the best decisions and this may be a difficult game for the Philadelphia Eagles.

Cleveland have not always been a great favourite to back, but they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five against a team with a losing record. The Eagles have some really poor trends going against them too and I think the Browns can make enough plays through either Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt to see them over the line.

I do think an Eagles team with more talent than their record would suggest are capable of turning things around and become a dangerous PlayOff team, but that may have to wait another week.

Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers Pick: There might only be a game between these two teams, but at 4-5 the Detroit Lions have to feel better about their chances of perhaps earning a PlayOff spot compared with the 3-7 Carolina Panthers. Some of that feeling has to be down to the fact that the Panthers have lost five in a row and the Lions have won three of their last five which makes it feel like Detroit have some momentum.

Both have banged up Quarter Backs which is not going to help their cause, but the Detroit Lions look to have Matthew Stafford available this week. The same cannot be said of the Carolina Panthers who are expected to be without Teddy Bridgewater in Week 11 which means either PJ Walker or Will Grier will be asked to start.

The injury that Stafford is dealing with is a concern especially as the Lions will be back out in a few days time against the Houston Texans on Thanksgiving Day. It may mean he is not able to throw as well as he can, but Stafford will know he can lean on the Detroit rushing attack which has shown life ever since D'Andre Swift took over as the starting Running Back.

The Running Back should have a real good chance of a strong outing against the Panthers Defensive Line which has been gashed in recent games. They gave up some big plays to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10 and Swift will feel he can pick up from there as well as being a real threat catching balls coming out of the backfield.

It is going to make the Detroit Offense dangerous as long as Matthew Stafford is feeling he can still make all the throws. If that is the case he is facing a Secondary which has given up some huge yards in recent games and the limited pass rush pressure that the Panthers generate should mean the Quarter Back is able to pick his spots and make sure Detroit are moving the ball as they would like.

The injury to Teddy Bridgewater does lessen the ability of Carolina to keep up if this develops into a shoot out.

Carolina are not helped by the face that Christian McCaffrey is going to be missing again and you have to feel that Detroit will be looking to clamp down on the run and force an inexperienced Quarter Back to try and beat them through the air. That won't be easy because the Lions have struggled to stop the run, but Carolina don't have a big threat at Quarter Back which should make it a little more comfortable for the Lions to try and load the line of scrimmage.

I still think the Panthers will find some good gains on the ground and while the game is close they can keep up that method of attack. That should also mean whoever starts at Quarter Back is able to make some plays against a Detroit Secondary which has not been very good this season.

A part of the reason has to be the very little pass rush that is being generated by Detroit, but they might have more success if there some uncertainty from the Quarter Back for the Panthers whether that is PJ Walker or Will Grier.

The Panthers are 1-7-1 against the spread in their last nine at home and I do think the Detroit Lions can win here. You can't be feeling that great about backing the Lions to win on the road as the favourite, especially not with a Thanksgiving Day to come, but I do think they have more momentum than their hosts and they should be focused on keeping their PlayOff hopes alive through another week.

I will look for them to make some big plays against the Carolina Quarter Back late in the day which will move this game in their favour as the Lions get back up to 0.500 for the season.

Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: There will be revenge in the air in Baltimore as the Ravens get set to take on the Tennessee Titans, the team who ended their Super Bowl ambitions back in January. Both teams are coming off important losses in Week 11 so there is a motivation to bounce back from that too, while you can't underestimate the chance of earning the tie-breaker with both the Ravens and Titans sitting in 2nd place in their respective Divisions at 6-3.

The spot looks like being a wash with both having very important Divisional Games in Week 12 which could end their chances of winning their Divisions. However, the Baltimore Ravens are scheduled to play on Thanksgiving Day and that short turn into their big game with the Pittsburgh Steelers could take away some of the focus from this one.

I am not anticipating that to be the case as the Ravens have lost two of their last three games and have to be really focused to make up for some of the banged up players on both sides of the ball which is affecting their level of performance. Lamar Jackson is still considered one of the top Quarter Backs in the NFL, but there is no doubting that 2020 has been a lot more difficult for him than 2019 and that can't be ignored either.

The passing numbers are considerably down on last season and part of the problem has been the injuries on the Offensive Line which means Lamar Jackson is not getting the same kind of protection as he was twelve months ago. Those issues on the O-Line have seen teams get to Jackson and bring him down in the backfield, but I do think the match up should be better for the Quarter Back in this one as he throws against a weak Tennessee Secondary.

Tennessee have simply not been able to get to the Quarter Back as well as they would have liked either and it should mean Jackson is able to make some big plays through the air.

That is important for Baltimore who have also struggled to run the ball as well as they would have expected to with the injuries on the Offensive Line contributing to those struggles too. Lamar Jackson does have Mark Ingram back with him and he is still making plays with his legs, but Tennessee have been showing a little more toughness when it comes to defending the run in recent games compared with the season as a whole.

I do think Tennessee will have to accept that Baltimore are going to make some plays against them, but I also like the chances of the Titans showing much better than their last performance when blown out by the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans were on a roll, but they have lost three of their last four games and Ryan Tannehill has been struggling, while the Offensive play-calling can be questioned.

The bottom line is that the Titans have to try and lean on Derrick Henry more than they have in recent games, although staying with Baltimore is the key so the can remain balanced Offensively. Derrick Henry should have a lot of success running the ball against the Ravens Defensive Line which has shown some signs of wear and tear when it comes to clamping down on the run.

Even if they can get to Henry early, the Running Back has a habit of breaking down bodies and then running over them in the second half and I do think he can have a decent game here. That will make life much easier for Ryan Tannehill whose numbers in the last three games have been very, very average.

Despite the injuries, Baltimore are still capable of making plays in the Secondary, but the struggle to stop the run has eased their pass rush compared with the early season form. That will be music to Ryan Tannehill's ears and he does have some big time Receivers who can step up for him and help the Titans continue to move the chains.

In recent weeks Tennessee have struggled against the spread, but they are not being over-rated in this one as far as I am concerned. They have had a little more time to prepare for this Week 11 game and Tennessee are also facing a Baltimore team who are 5-13 against the spread in their last eighteen as the home favourite.

Getting almost a full converted Touchdown worth of points looks appealing with the road team who can control the clock. Mike Vrabel needs better from his Special Teams unit, but if he gets that I do think the Titans are going to have every chance to cover against a banged up Baltimore team who may be looking to protect bodies before their Thanksgiving Day game at Divisional rivals Pittsburgh.

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans Pick: Every week in the NFL there are one or two spreads you may look at and wonder why the line is as small/big as it is- in most cases I move past those games and look for better options.

My reasoning for that is if a line looks too good to be true then it usually is, but I am finding it very difficult to move past the New England Patriots as a narrow favourite at the Houston Texans. A win in Week 10 has moved the Patriots back up to 4-5 for the season and they remain keen on chasing down a PlayOff spot, while the Houston Texans were losing again and are 2-7 on the season with both wins coming against the even more awful Jacksonville Jaguars.

Bill O'Brien is gone as Head Coach, but his moves continue to be heavily criticised. He won't be around to face his mentor Bill Belichick, but interim Head Coach Romeo Crennel is well aware of the Patriots organisation and will be motivated to get one over on Belichick himself.

The Texans were beaten at the Cleveland Browns last week which means they have dropped three of their last four games. With the First Round Pick in the next NFL Draft going to the Miami Dolphins thanks to one of the bonehead trades O'Brien made in his time as Head Coach and General Manager, it should mean Houston are focused on trying to put as many wins on the board in the weeks ahead even if the PlayOffs are beyond them.

Deshaun Watson at least gives the Houston Texans a genuine franchise Quarter Back and the team has to be built around him. This is a player capable of digging deep and having the monster game that is likely going to be needed for Houston to win this game, but Watson is not helped by the fact that the Texans have a limited ground attack to at least ease the pressure on him.

The injury to David Johnson means Duke Johnson will take the majority of carries, but Deshaun Watson is capable of making some plays with his legs too as he will look to keep Houston in front of the chains. The Offensive Line should at least give Watson time to throw down the field if he is forced to rely on his arm instead, although the New England Patriots look to be getting healthier Defensively and this has not been a Secondary that has been easy to throw against.

I do think Deshaun Watson is capable of still making some big throws, but I worry about the Houston consistency Offensively and they are now taking on a New England team who may have a spring in their step after back to back wins. They have played well Defensively, but Cam Newton looks to be getting healthier and the rushing Offense may be boosted by the potential return of Sony Michel this week.

Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels have tailored the Offensive unit around the strengths of Cam Newton who took over from Tom Brady and there have been signs that they can make enough positive plays to get back into the PlayOffs. The big Quarter Back is capable of running with the ball, but he has been given a boost by Damien Harris in the backfield and having Sony Michel back too makes New England dangerous.

This is particularly to a Defensive Line like the one Houston are trotting out onto the field, one that has really struggled to stop the run in recent games. I find it difficult to believe that will change markedly in this Week 11 game and it should mean the Patriots are set up to win.

Cam Newton is expected to be well protected against this limited Houston pass rush and that should see him able to employ play action to hit Receivers down the field. The Texans Secondary have perhaps got some stronger numbers by the sheer fact that teams can run all over them and so don't need to pass as much as they might do otherwise, and I do think New England can move into a position to win a third game in succession.

The Texans are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games as the home underdog and they are just 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen in this Stadium overall. New England are Coached well enough to usually beat those teams they should under Bill Belichick and Houston are set for a Thanksgiving Day game which may be where the focus is for the players to show the nation they are better than their record.

The line is under a key number 3 and I think New England are worth getting behind to cover in this one.

MY PICKS: Seattle Seahawks - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Washington Football Team - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Detroit Lions - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennessee Titans + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

New England Patriots - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Los Angeles Chargers - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Minnesota Vikings - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Kansas City Chiefs - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL Week 11 Picks 2015 (November 19-23)

From next week I will be back with the NFL Recaps that have been missing for a couple of weeks and then the Thanksgiving Day Picks will be on the Week 12 Picks thread on Thursday afternoon.

It is a busy week next week with the NFL/College Football games beginning on Thursday but the latter also has a pretty full Friday schedule for the Thanksgiving Day weekend.

Week 11 Picks

I was frustrated with Week 10 but I think a lot of people out there would have been with the underdogs completely dominating the counter through the week. It was incredible really as some favourites blew their advantages late on and others just simply failed to turn up.

That meant it was a terrible week for the picks and ruined what had been a very good Week 9 and once again means the season totals have taken a hit. We are still in a positive but I do feel that it could have been a lot worse so have to be thankful for that.

Hopefully Week 11 will prove to be a much more positive one as the last few weeks have been a little disappointing for me personally and I am looking for more consistent results from the picks being made.

Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: After a blistering start to the season, the Atlanta Falcons have hit the barriers and would have been grateful for a late season bye to try and right their ship. The Falcons are now 3 games behind the Carolina Panthers in the Division which is going to be tough to overcome, although they do play them twice down the stretch.

That means the Falcons can't really drop any silly games if they do want to win the NFC South, while they are also in a decent position to pick up a Wild Card spot in the NFC. Coming out of a bye has been a good position for Atlanta in recent seasons and Dan Quinn will be hoping to maintain that success.

Atlanta face the Indianapolis Colts, who are also off a bye but are missing Andrew Luck for the foreseeable future. That means Matt Hasselbeck is going to be back at Quarter Back having gone 2-0 in relief of Luck earlier this season and the veteran will be hoping that he can continue his winning run as the back up in Indianapolis.

However, both of those wins came against fellow AFC South teams and that is one of the poorer Divisions in the NFL with all four teams having a losing record to this point. The Colts will look to give the ball to Frank Gore to keep the Atlanta Offense off the field, but the pressure will likely be on Hasselbeck as the Falcons have defended the run effectively for the most part.

He will have some success throwing the ball though with Atlanta getting limited pressure up front and Hasselbeck has some Receivers who will be able to get open. The problem for Hasselbeck is that he is yet to be in a position this season where he is in obvious passing spots as Indianapolis played both Jacksonville and Houston well, but Atlanta have the Offense to force him into a shoot-out which gives the home team the edge.

Matt Ryan and the Offense had looked out of sync prior to their bye, but they would have been able to work things out and Julio Jones should finally be back to full health. They are going against an Indianapolis Secondary that played well against Denver, but that game looks an outlier and I expect Ryan to make plays with his arm as he will be under limited pressure and has the playmakers to get the ball down the field.

Devonta Freeman might not have a lot of running lanes immediately until the Colts are forced to respect the pass, but the fantasy darling Running Back is also a threat catching the ball out of the backfield. His speed will be tough for the Colts to get a hold of and I think the Falcons will be able to move the chains consistently.

Some of their drives have bogged down thanks to mistakes made by the Offense, but I think Dan Quinn would have got the team focused in the bye week. Atlanta haven't covered in any of their last 5 games and Indianapolis have in 4 of their last 5, but the favourite has gone 4-0 against the spread in this series and I think the Falcons have too much scoring for Indianapolis.

New York Jets @ Houston Texans Pick: The NFC Play Off race looks to have seen a couple of teams separate themselves from the rest of the Wild Card chasing pack. That is not the case in the AFC though and these two teams might look at this game in January as the reason they are either playing Play Off football or booking their holidays in warmer climates.

The New York Jets are not going to catch the New England Patriots in the AFC East, but they have the same record as the current Number 6 Seed in the Conference. On the other hand the Houston Texans are a game behind the Jets, but are also level with the Indianapolis Colts at the top of the AFC South and could very much be in a position to host a Play Off game in January especially with Luck out of the equation for the Colts at this point.

The teams are in contrasting shape at the moment with the Jets losing 3 of 4 games and the Texans winning 3 of 4, but the latter are on the short week having won on Monday Night Football. Compare that with the New York Jets who almost came back from a big deficit in Week 10, but that was on Thursday Night Football and so have had a little more time to prepare.

New York will also have their starting Quarter Back available as Ryan Fitzpatrick looks set to go against one of his former teams while Houston will go with TJ Yates who had to replace Brian Hoyer last week.

The problem for Yates is he will get almost no support from his running game and will be forced to make throws against a Secondary that will lock down DeAndre Hopkins with Darrelle Revis. I am not sure where else Yates will be able to go and the Jets could have the answer to stall their drives.

Fitzpatrick may get more support from Chris Ivory against a Defensive Line that has struggled against the run this season. That Line played well against Cincinnati but a short week could be tough to prepare for the ground and pound that the Jets will use, one that sets up Fitzpatrick to hit his Receivers like Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall.

I expect the former Texan to make some big throws from Quarter Back having felt he was perhaps disrespected in Houston and Fitzpatrick can lead the Jets to a vital win. The Jets are not used to being favoured on the road though which concerns me and is a major reason I can't go bigger than the minimum unit on them covering here in Texas.

Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears Pick: There are so many stories in play in this game including John Fox and Adam Gase going back against the team they Coached last season and led to a Super Bowl a couple of years ago. However there is no doubting that the biggest story is the benching of Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler making his first career start for the Denver Broncos who are desperate to right a shaking ship.

The Broncos are still on top of the AFC South and have a healthy three game lead over their two nearest rivals, but two losses in a row will shake confidence. Denver also have a back loaded scheduled which will see them face San Diego twice, New England, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and three of those five games are on the road.

So a game in Chicago is actually very important for Denver to try and get moving in the right direction again else they host New England having lost three in a row. The right decision has been made in taking Manning out of the starting Quarter Back spot because he has looked terrible for much of the season but is arguably off his worst game of his career.

So now Osweiler will get the call against a Bears team that has won 4 of their last 6 games and are back in contention in the NFC although still in a tough spot. It will be interesting to see how focused Chicago can be when you think they have a huge Divisional game against the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night and now face a team with a back up Quarter Back.

I don't know if Osweiler is going to be the permanent starter or just until Peyton Manning can become healthier, but I expect the Bears will try and dare Denver to beat them with Osweiler's arm. He showed some things in relief of Manning last week, but both Fox and Gase will know his strengths and weaknesses and are sure to have passed that on to Vic Fangio at Defensive Co-Ordinator.

The problem for Denver is that they haven't been able to establish the running game to at least aid their Quarter Back and it could be a tough day for the Broncos who are also likely without Emmanuel Sanders at one Wide Receiver spot.

But why do I like the Denver Broncos to cover on the road with these things against them? It is simply because the Bears have that game at Green Bay on the short week and I think the Broncos Defensive unit can make the plays to help their team win this game. Aqib Talib is back this week to give the Secondary a boost although DeMarcus Ware remains absent and I think Osweiler will be given a simple game plan to manage this game and help the Defensive unit with the field position.

Jay Cutler has played very well so far this season and hasn't been making mistakes that he has become known for. Jeremy Langford has filled in ably for Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery has shown toughness despite being hobbled which has made this Offense dangerous the last few weeks.

Even a famed St Louis pass rush couldn't rattle Cutler last week, although I do think the Broncos are better at playing the run and have more depth in the Secondary than the Rams. Langford could be bottled up by Denver and I think this Secondary is able to make the big plays that can give the Broncos the edge in the game and spoil John Fox's attempted revenge over his former team.

The Bears are just 1-3 against the spread at home this season and I think Denver rally through their problems this week and win this one on the road.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers Pick: The San Diego Chargers have virtually dropped out of the Play Off picture in the AFC after losing five games in a row by an average of five points per game. Every one of those games was lost by a one score margin and they will come out of their bye week hoping to at least rattle a few other teams in their remaining games.

No one will ever talk about being out of the Play Off picture and Philip Rivers has admitted that his team need to take things one game at a time and hope they can get back into things. Beating a Divisional rival like the Kansas City Chiefs off the bye will give San Diego some confidence to take into their remaining games and they have to feel a little disrespected as the home underdog.

There is a feeling that the Kansas City Chiefs are being over-rated after demolishing the Denver Broncos on the road last week. However backing up such an emotional road win with another road game is not going to be easy for the Chiefs against a well-rested team who could have restored health on both sides of the ball.

Well I say better health, but I mean along the Offensive Line which will at least offer Rivers some protection from a fierce Kansas City pass rush led by Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. Rivers is missing many of his starting Receivers including Keenan Allen and Malcolm Floyd, but Antonio Gates is likely back and that is huge for the San Diego Chargers.

It will be down to Rivers, who is perhaps the most under-rated Quarter Back in the NFL, to help the Chargers move the chains as they haven't been able to establish the run. That is also where the Chiefs Defensive unit has thrived this season, but the Secondary can struggle at times and Rivers will also be able to check down to Danny Woodhead coming out of the backfield to keep the drives going.

There are still some Defensive problems for the San Diego Chargers to deal with and the Kansas City Chiefs can take advantage even if they don't exactly have the most exciting of Offenses. However, that lack of an edge has seen many of their drives end in Field Goals and that was the case last week too despite having some short fields to work with against the Denver Broncos.

Charcandrick West has played well in relief of the injured Jamaal Charles and he could have a big game against this Chargers Defense that has allowed 4.9 yards per carry. However San Diego might be better with some Linebackers recovering from injury to perhaps plug the holes that have come out and the Chargers may also be looking to Alex Smith to try and beat them with his limited passing game.

Smith does have Jeremy Maclin but he is too often looking for the short pass that can be tough to keep the Chiefs drives from stalling in the red zone when the space becomes limited. It is half the reason that they have had to hit so many Field Goals when getting down into that position, while his Offensive Line has struggled in protection which hasn't helped Smith's cause to look down the field.

Coming out of the bye I do like the San Diego Chargers with the points to keep it competitive against a Kansas City Chiefs team off an emotional win. The underdog has gone 3-1 against the spread when these teams have met in Southern California and I do think the home underdog can surprise as the Chargers have kept games close in their recent poor run.

Kansas City are 4-14 against the spread when favoured in Divisional games and I will back the Chargers with the points.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: When the Green Bay Packers opened the season 6-0 and the Minnesota Vikings were just 2-2 after four games, I don't think many would have suggested the latter would be leading the NFC North when Week 11 rolled around. This is the first game of the season between these Divisional rivals and the Green Bay Packers are the underdog on the road here.

Three straight losses will do that to a team but I think the loss to the Detroit Lions last week really has opened up some eyes about the Packers. Losing to Denver and Carolina on the road could be forgiven, but struggling against Detroit was a real surprise and there are some worries about the Green Bay Offense which has struggled to get unplugged.

One concern has to be the play of Aaron Rodgers who was on the injury list this week with a shoulder complaint. He has looked a little unsure of himself in the pocket and hasn't been helped by his Receivers getting open, but Rodgers has missed the confidence that has become so associated with him.

Rodgers might find himself under pressure in the pocket in this game, but he is capable of making plays with his legs and may also be able to establish James Starks running the ball. That will give the Packers a chance to play in short yardage down and distance which will give Rodgers more time naturally, but his Receivers have to show they can consistently win their one on one match ups if the Packers are to get rolling again.

The Minnesota Vikings have a Secondary that will feel they can knock Randall Cobb, James Jones and Davante Adams off their routes, but the Packers should be able to still bounce back from a terrible outing against the Detroit Lions.

It will come down to whether the Green Bay Packers Defensive unit can find the answers that they haven't been able to do the last three weeks. Adrian Peterson has been looking better and better in recent weeks and he should be able to establish the run for the Minnesota Vikings who have become the kind of team that most would have expected from an Offensive standpoint.

Teddy Bridgewater hasn't reached the heights of his rookie season, but he is being asked to manage the game and ride on Peterson's back without making the big mistake to that costs the Vikings games. The Offensive Line hasn't always protected him properly and that is where Green Bay will look to get after him, but Bridgewater can make some plays against a banged up Secondary that has given up some big yardage in their three losing games.

The issue is that there is some big pressure on Minnesota who are trying to prove they are the team to beat in the NFC North and that can be tough to deal with. Green Bay haven't lost four in a row with Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back and I think they will feel disrespected as the underdog in this one, while the spot looks like one they have regularly bounced back in recent seasons.

Minnesota do have a very good record against the spread against Green Bay in recent years but they haven't ben favoured too often in that time. The Packers are 0-2 against the spread as the road underdog in the last couple of years, but I think Green Bay will come out with a point to prove and can find their way to secure the win.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: The Colin Kaepernick era in San Francisco looks to be over as he went in for season ending surgery, but the Quarter Back had already been replaced by Blaine Gabbert. The San Francisco 49ers have had a difficult season following Jim Harbaugh's departure but they are still just about in the Play Off picture although a defeat here in Seattle would end those chances.

The San Francisco 49ers are coming in off a bye week but remain without Carlos Hyde at Running Back and Blaine Gabbert is going to have a much more difficult experience at Quarter Back in Seattle. He guided his team to a win over the Atlanta Hawks in Week 9, but the Legion of Boom should be angry and waiting for the visit of the 49ers after dropping their second home game of the season last weekend.

It is going to be difficult for Gabbert to receive enough support from the ground game and that means he is likely going to be throwing from third and long in an intimidating atmosphere. The pressure will be on Gabbert to keep the chains moving and that is not a position he has thrived in in the past.

Gabbert has also found pass rushes confidence sapping and while he had a fairly clean pocket against the Atlanta Falcons, the Quarter Back is going to be under immense pressure by this Defensive Line. The Seattle Seahawks rattled Carson Palmer last week who had a better Offensive Line than the San Francisco one and I expect the Seahawks to get to Gabbert consistently.

While Gabbert is going to be under pressure on the field, Russell Wilson faced some rare criticism for his performance in the loss to the Arizona Cardinals last week. Wilson was given more time behind his Offensive Line after Seattle came off the bye week, but he missed some big throws although I am expecting the Quarter Back to have a bounce back game this week against this San Francisco Secondary that has struggled through injury and departures all season.

San Francisco don't get the same level of pass rush as last season so Wilson should have time to find the likes of Jimmy Graham and Doug Baldwin when he does go back to throw. Another key difference for Wilson compared with Gabbert is that Seattle should be able to establish their running game which will make it easier for Wilson to move the chains with both his legs and arm.

This is the biggest game that San Francisco have left to play in all honesty so I am expecting a full effort from them, but they have been blown out in three of four road games this season. I don't think Gabbert is going to have much success at all and wouldn't be surprised if he throws a couple of turnovers while the Seahawks should swarm him often.

I also think Seattle will continue their dominance of this rivalry and I expect them to score enough points to cover a big number at home and get back into the Play Off picture. Seattle are 7-0-1 against the spread in the last eight games of the series and I think they take out their anger on the 49ers and beat them by at least two Touchdowns.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: In normal circumstances I would not be that interested in backing a team that is coming off an emotional Divisional road win and has two more Divisional games to play following this one. That is the spot for the Arizona Cardinals, but Carson Palmer is facing his former team and has admitted that this is not 'just another game' so I expect the Cardinals to all focus for their leader.

There are still other goals that Arizona are looking for than getting revenge for their Quarter Back and I think the Cardinals can't afford to look past the Cincinnati Bengals who were beaten for the first time last week. They are now on a short week out West against a team that has been very dominant as the home favourite and I like the Cardinals in this Sunday Night Football game.

Andre Ellington and Chris Johnson have given Arizona something they haven't had for a while here and that is an effective running game. Both players have helped Arizona average 4.4 yards per carry and Carson Palmer will be able to hand the ball off to the pair of them and pick up big yards against the weakness of the Cincinnati Defense.

That will open things up for Carson Palmer to take his shots downfield even if Michael Floyd and John Brown are both absent for this game. Juron Brown is capable of stretching the field and Larry Fitzgerald remains a safety blanket for Palmer so it looks like it will be tough for the Bengals to slow down the Offense consistently.

Another issue for the Bengals is the lack of a strong running game which really begins to show up as we reach December and January. Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard give Cincinnati a one-two punch out of the backfield, but the Offensive Line has struggled to open holes for them and they average just 3.9 yards per carry.

It means the pressure will be on Andy Dalton who didn't have a great game against the Houston Texans last week and who faces an under-rated Defensive unit. The pressure up front won't be the issue, but Arizona have a very strong Secondary that can take away AJ Green with Patrick Peterson and have some ball-hawking players that can turn the ball over.

Dalton has had some very good games this season when being asked to throw to keep the Bengals afloat, but it is going to be tough to do that in Arizona. I think the Cardinals will make the bigger plays on both sides of the ball which can make the difference in this contest and I really like them as a home favourite in their home Stadium where Arizona have been dominant under Bruce Arians.

The short week and long travel is against Cincinnati here and I think Carson Palmer has a statement game against his former team and Arizona cover.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots Pick: The Buffalo Bills were very hyped up when they played the New England Patriots earlier this season, but a blow out loss later and they were aware that the AFC East was still the domain of the Patriots. However Rex Ryan is never going to back down from New England even if he wants his team to emulate what they have achieved and this Monday Night Football game could be another 'must see' event.

The Bills might actually have something of a chance for revenge this week even if the layers have a big spread in favour of the unbeaten Patriots. New England have lost Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman and both are key figures for the Patriots, although Tom Brady is defying his age and likely to continue to have big games without him.

Buffalo did find something of a pass rush last week coming off a bye week and Ryan might be able to dial up some pressure on Brady which is always the key to beating the Patriots. The Secondary hasn't been able to hold up without a well paid Defensive Line getting to the Quarter Back and that is huge for Buffalo this week if they want to cause an upset on the road and put themselves in a strong position to challenge for a Wild Card spot in the AFC.

If they can force Brady to release quickly, New England drives could certainly stall because he won't have the same reliable catchers as Edelman and Lewis had proved to be. LeGarrette Blount won't find a lot of running lanes and Buffalo might just give themselves a chance to cause an upset by stalling drives and perhaps forcing the Patriots to settle for Field Goals rather than Touchdowns.

The Bills have to make sure they protect the ball well enough though as the turnover battle could be critical for them in this one. The return of Tyrod Taylor at Quarter Back will give Buffalo some more confidence and they have three players that can run the ball effectively and try and keep New England off balance.

Taylor, LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams are all healthy and have had over ten days to get ready for this game which is huge for Buffalo. The Patriots have improved against the run as the season has progressed, but I think Buffalo will be able to have some success and that opens up the play-action pass to get Sammy Watkins stretching the field.

One area the Patriots have impressed is against the pass though and they have also got a lot of pressure up front and I expect Taylor will be sacked a couple of times. Taylor has to know that and make sure he protects the ball against a New England team that is one of the better sacking teams in the NFL, while Buffalo's Offensive Line is proven to be better running the ball than protecting their Quarter Back.

It still looks a lot of points for New England to cover as the home favourite and they are just 12-14 against the spread as the home favourite in Divisional games over the seasons. Buffalo have covered as the road underdog twice this season in their Divisional games and Rex Ryan teams generally gave New England a much tougher time in Foxboro than they did at home.

Getting a Touchdown head-start against a team that is banged up looks a lot of points and I like the Bills to cover.

MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

New York Jets - 3 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

Denver Broncos - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

San Diego Chargers + 3 Points @ 2.05 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers + 1 Point @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Seattle Seahawks - 13.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Arizona Cardinals - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills + 7 Points @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Week 10: 3-6, - 5.54 Units
Week 9: 6-2, + 8.08 Units
Week 8: 0-1, - 1 Unit
Week 7: 2-4, - 4.23 Units
Week 6: 3-5-1, - 3.33 Units
Week 5: 3-5-1, - 3.48 Units
Week 4: 4-3-1, + 2.24 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.03 Units
Week 2: 4-5, - 1.71 Units
Week 1: 5-2-1, + 6.46 Units

Season 2015: 38-35-4, + 7.52 Units
Season 2014: 77-80-2, - 8.47 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units