NFL Week 11 Picks 2022 (November 17-21)

I will add a few more paragraphs to this Week 11 thread before the Sunday games, but for now you can read my Thursday Night Football Pick.

Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers Pick: A two Touchdown deficit looked to be the start of the end of the season for the Green Bay Packers (4-6), but a Fourth Quarter rally followed by an Overtime win over the Dallas Cowboys may just have saved the year. It is going to take a monumental change of fortunes for the Packers and the Minnesota Vikings for Green Bay to get back into the NFC North Divisional race, but the victory in Week 10 means the Wild Card positions are still very much in reach.

A short week is perhaps not ideal for the Green Bay Packers having put in a huge emotional and physical effort to beat the Dallas Cowboys.

They are also going to be very much aware of the physical effort needed to take on the Tennessee Titans (6-3) who have won six of their last seven games having beaten the Denver Broncos on Sunday. It is a victory which keeps the Titans in a position of control in the AFC South, but this is another team that would have preferred having a usual week building up to a Sunday game rather than being scheduled to play on Thursday Night Football.

Injuries to key players on both sides of the ball will hurt the Titans, but this is a team that is built in the image of their Head Coach Mike Vrabel meaning they will always put in a full effort. Having Ryan Tannehill back at Quarter Back in Week 10 was a boost, but the game plan remains very clear for the Titans and that is giving the ball to Derrick Henry and looking for the big Running Back to crash through the Defensive Line that is in front of him.

Despite the fact that most Defensive Co-Ordinators will be spending time trying to stop the run, the Titans Offensive Line has been able to bully opponents up front and open the door for Derrick Henry to do the damage on the ground. A couple of players are missing from that Line on Thursday Night Football, but the Green Bay Defensive Line has struggled to stop the run all season and I am not sure things will be much different in Week 11.

Keeping the Tennessee Titans in third and manageable spots is important to Tannehill and the Offensive unit and I do think the Quarter Back will have enough protection to try and keep the chains moving. The Titans will not want to ask too much of Tannehill, but the veteran can do enough to make sure he does not give the game away and handing the ball off to Derrick Henry should be the first and foremost plan as long as Tennessee remain competitive.

They should be able to do that thanks to a Defensive unit that have overcome the absence of key players to continue to make big plays as the 'next man up' philosophy shines through.

Despite having Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back, the Green Bay Packers have been much better running the ball than throwing this season as a young Receiving corps have struggled to make up for the loss of Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders. Both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have been in strong form for the Packers and were key to their comeback against the Dallas Cowboys last time out, but they are not expected to get a lot of change out of the Tennessee Defensive Line.

In recent games the Titans Defensive Line have held teams to 3 yards per carry and they will feel they can control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, which is very important. Jeffery Simmons has been a huge part of the Defensive Line, although he could be missing this week, but even then the Tennessee Titans will feel they can clamp down on the rush and then turn to a pass rushing team that can pressurise Aaron Rodgers.

The veteran Quarter Back has to be much happier with the impact Christian Watson was able to make in the win over the Dallas Cowboys, and there are some holes in the Tennessee Secondary that can be exploited. However, there is still an inconsistency to the passing game in Green Bay that is hard to ignore and I do think the Tennessee Titans look worthy of backing with the points being given to them.

I am not a big fan of going against a quality Quarter Back like Aaron Rodgers and the short weeks can play havoc with preparation for all involved. That may be a factor against the Tennessee Titans in this one simply because of the amount of injuries they are dealing with, but I do think Derrick Henry will provide enough of an Offensive spark to back up the strong performances being produced by the Tennessee Defense.

The Packers have a strong record on Thursday Night with a 6-1-1 record against the spread in their last eight in that situation, but they are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven following a win.

Tennessee have some very strong recent trends and have been a covering machine in their last seven games and this really feels like enough points given to the road underdog to be worth backing in this one.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick: There is only one Division in the NFL which has all four teams holding a winning record going into Week 11 of the 2022 season.

The AFC East is going to produce a tough path into the PlayOffs with all four teams looking and feeling pretty good, but that also means the importance of the Divisional games increases tenfold.

Both the New York Jets (6-3) and the New England Patriots (5-4) went into their Bye Week behind a strong win and they are two well Coached teams that should be perfectly prepared for this big Week 11 game. The Patriots do hold a win over the Jets from just three weeks ago, but Robert Saleh will feel his team made some very bad mistakes that day, which ultimately proved costly in the 5 point loss at home.

It might not sound perfect, but the Jets need to make this game much more manageable for Zach Wilson who threw three Interceptions in the defeat at home to New England. He is more experienced, but playing a Bill Belichick Defensive unit has proven to be very difficult for Wilson and the Jets will know they need to make sure this game is competitive and they do not have to over-rely on the arm of the young signal caller.

He did throw for over 350 yards and added two Touchdown passes in the defeat, but the game plan for the road team has to be to establish the run against this New England Defensive Line. You have to believe that Bill Belichick is firmly aware of that plan and will be loading the box and daring Wilson to beat them with his arm, but the Patriots Defensive Line has given up some big yards outside of that first game with the Jets and Zach Wilson could open things up if he is able to avoid mistakes.

Overall the Jets have been a team that can run the ball effectively and I do think they will be better in this one than the first meeting with the Patriots. I expect the Coaching staff would have spent the last couple of weeks working on a few creases to manage the game on the ground and keep their Quarter Back in a position where he isn't pushing to move the chains.

Avoiding mistakes is a key for the New York Jets because they have a Defensive unit that is very capable of shutting down some of the best Offenses in the NFL. They showed that in their last game when holding the powerful Buffalo Bills to 17 points and the overall numbers being produced by the Jets is very impressive.

As long as they are not having to defend short fields, the New York Jets won't feel they have a lot to fear from the New England Offense having held them to under 300 total yards in the home defeat. Mac Jones has yet to really prove he can be a franchise Quarter Back for the New England Patriots, who have not been the same since Tom Brady left, and the Jets do look to match up pretty well with this AFC East rival.

Running the ball is the main ambition for the Patriots, like it is for the Jets, and that is important to keep Mac Jones in a position to have success. However, it has been a real challenge to run the ball against the New York Jets Defensive Line all season, while the Patriots Offensive Line has not been playing as well as they would have liked in recent games.

If the Jets can put the Patriots in a position of third and long, New York will feel they can have the edge in this game and rely on a strong Secondary to make some big plays. It will also unleash what has been a strong Jets pass rush and I expect they could pressure Mac Jones into some mistakes.

One concern is that the Jets have had a poor record against the New England Patriots in recent seasons, while they were blown out off a Bye Week by the Patriots in 2021. However, New England have not covered in their last couple of games when playing out of a Bye Week, while the Jets have covered in their last four on the road.

Having a little more than 3 points looks a value play with the New York Jets who should be able to keep this one close as long as they don't have Zach Wilson giving it away again. This feels like a game that will offer the Jets an opportunity of a backdoor cover at the least, while the New York Jets Defense can contain the Patriots and limit the point output.

Detroit Lions @ New York Giants Pick: Two teams who are going to be playing on Thanksgiving Day in a few days time are playing one another in Week 11 and you have to wonder whether the short week coming up is a distraction. The Detroit Lions (3-6) earned a vital win over the Chicago Bears last week and they are used to playing on Thanksgiving Day, but it is different for the New York Giants (7-2).

They continue to overcome the numbers and the Giants beat the Houston Texans in Week 11, which has taken them to a game behind the NFC East leading Philadelphia Eagles. While the team are going to try and concentrate on this game, you cannot discount the fact they are playing in an unfamiliar spot on Thanksgiving Day and they are facing the Dallas Cowboys in a huge Divisional game.

That game could be a distraction for the Giants, while the simple Offensive game plan means they are not likely to blow teams away. Shortened games are the norm with the New York Giants who are very much a team that will pound the rock through Saquon Barkley and look to wear down the opponents in front of them.

Strong play from the Offensive Line has helped Barkley in his bounce back year, while Quarter Back Daniel Jones is someone who is very comfortable moving the ball with his legs rather than his arm. The Giants should be able to get things going on the ground against the Detroit Defensive Line that has been giving up 5.5 yards per carry and who were pounded on the ground by the Chicago Bears and their dual-threat Quarter Back last week.

Injuries in the Receiving corps have been an issue for the Giants, but Darius Slayton has stepped up for the team and there are holes in this Lions Secondary which can be exploited. As long as the Giants are in third and manageable spots, Daniel Jones won't have to push too hard to keep the ball moving and the New York Giants should be able to produce a positive Offensive return.

As much as the New York Giants are going to be comfortable with the ball in their hands, the Detroit Lions have been pretty strong Offensively even through a difficult season. The Lions Offensive Line should be able to bully the Giants up front and they can establish the run in this game to keep the team in front of the chains and put Jared Goff in a winning position.

There has been a touch of inconsistency with the way the Lions have been running the ball and that is partly down to the fact that D'Andre Swift has not been used as many would have hoped. Injury hasn't helped him, but it may mean Jared Goff has to step back and make some plays down the field, but Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a huge feature of the Receiving corps and he has piled up the yards in the last three games.

New York have been a team that have bent without breaking Defensively, but I do think Jared Goff will be able to get St. Brown rolling in this one.

The Lions did put in a huge effort to beat the Chicago Bears in Week 10 and they had to fight back from a big deficit to do that and I think that is potentially going to catch them out here. I do like the way they have been competing, but the New York Giants have shown they contain opponents in what has been a surprising season and I do think the Giants will have a touch more balance Offensively that makes the difference on the day.

Both have some solid trends behind them, but playing on the road on back to back weeks is a tough task for any team in the NFL. Head Coach Dan Campbell has always gotten the best out of his team and that makes the Lions dangerous, but I do think they could come up short emotionally in this one with the New York Giants improving their 4-1 record against the spread in their last five games at home.

I am of the mind that the New York Giants hold an over-inflated record, but I think they will be able to control the clock and ultimately do enough to beat the Lions by around a Touchdown mark, assuming the Giants won't blow a big lead like the Chicago Bears did.

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills Pick: This was a game supposed to be hosted by the Buffalo Bills (6-3), but extreme weather conditions have led to the relatively extreme decision to move this game to Detroit. The fact that the Bills are on the short week with a Thanksgiving Day game coming up on Thursday meant it wasn't really feasible for the game to be hosted by Buffalo on Monday or Tuesday and so the decision was made to relocate in Week 11.

In a quirk in the schedule, Buffalo will now be playing back to back games in Detroit with a game against the Lions following this one with the Cleveland Browns (3-6). However, Sean McDermott and the Bills will be travelling back and forth between Detroit and home for the next few days in a bid to try and keep their routine as consistent as possible.

This is a big game for Buffalo who have lost back to back games to fall to third in the AFC East as well as falling a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs who hold the current Number 1 Seed in the Conference. After winning on the road in Kansas City, the Bills Mafia would have been hoping to see their team secure home field through the PlayOffs, but work has to be done to turn things around.

Josh Allen has admitted that he needs to take care of his arm having picked up an injury that had him questionable to suit up last week- that means practice sessions are perhaps not as tough as they would be for the franchise Quarter Back. I don't think that is the reason he has been guilty of throwing some really bad Interceptions in the last couple of defeats to the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings, but Allen admits he needs to clean up his game to get the Bills back on track.

Playing indoors is expected to suit this Buffalo Offensive unit right down to the ground and they are facing a Browns Defense that was mercilessly torched by the Miami Dolphins last week. Coming out of their Bye Week, Cleveland disappointed and they may not have left enough time for Deashaun Watson to bail them out when he returns in a couple of weeks time.

After giving up almost 500 yards of total Offense last week, I do have to believe the Cleveland Browns will be much stronger this time around. A problem for them has been the struggle to stop the run and I have little doubt that Buffalo can rip off some big gains in this one through Devin Singletary and the ability of Josh Allen to tuck the ball and make huge plays on the ground.

It does open up the Secondary to be attacked, while also making sure the Cleveland pass rush cannot disrupt the game, and last week the Browns struggled to slow down the Miami Dolphins. I still think the Buffalo Bills are the top Offensive team in the AFC and I think they can pick up where their Divisional rivals left off by establishing the run and then having Josh Allen throw to the likes of Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs down the field.

A more pertinent question for the Browns is whether they can find the Offensive success this week to try and stay with the Buffalo Bills.

They are being given a lot more points than they were on the road against the Miami Dolphins in Week 10, but Jacoby Brissett is going to have to make more plays than he did in that defeat. First and foremost the game plan for the Browns is to establish the run and to control the clock doing so, but they showed last week it is much tougher for them when they are behind by a couple of scores and things can quickly slip away from them.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt can have success in this one when you think of the recent struggles the Buffalo Defensive Line have had in stopping the run. In their last three games, the Bills have almost given up 6 yards per carry with the likes of the Green Bay Packers, New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings racking up big numbers on the ground.

That will be music to the ears of the Browns as long as this game is close, but the Offensive Line have not been as productive when it comes to protecting Jacoby Brissett when he drops back to throw compared with their ability to pave the road for the Running Backs. If the Browns are behind the chains, Brissett will be under pressure from the pass rush, while his inconsistencies throwing the ball could be a problem against this injury-hit, but still productive Buffalo Secondary.

Unlike the Vikings, Cleveland don't really have the same all around threat when it comes to throwing the ball. However, Amari Cooper may feel he can offer his Quarter Back plenty of support as Justin Jefferson did for Kirk Cousins in Week 10, and it may give the Browns the chance for a backdoor cover.

I do think Cleveland could be dangerous, but the indoor conditions should suit Buffalo right down to the ground.

Josh Allen has not had the best record against the spread when suffering back to back losses, but the Bills did cover in that lone situation in 2021 and I think this is a team that will be focused in putting in a big performance.

You do have to expect a reaction to the blow out loss suffered last week, but Kevin Stefanski has only guided Cleveland to a 1-5 record against the spread in the last six games after a double digit defeat. The Browns are also just 4-9 against the spread in their last thirteen against AFC opponents.

Buffalo have a 4-1-1 record against the spread in their last six against the Cleveland Browns and I think they have the Offensive firepower to get into a double digit lead and then force a few mistakes out of Jacoby Brissett on their way to getting back on track here.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos Pick: There is a huge AFC West game taking place in Week 11 with the two top teams in the Division facing off in Los Angeles, but the other Divisional game is not really going to be attracting the same sort of attention. Two new Head Coaches are already under pressure after what has been underwhelming seasons at the Denver Broncos (3-6) and the Las Vegas Raiders (2-7).

Last season, the Las Vegas Raiders finished with ten regular season wins which took them into the PlayOffs, but Josh McDaniels has struggled in his second Head Coaching role. He did not perform as expected when he was the Head Coach of the Denver Broncos either and fans are already calling on the Raiders to end this experiment before the end of McDaniels' first season in charge.

The losses have been piling up, but owner Mark Davis has suggested he is going to stick with the under pressure Head Coach, although that decision could come under the microscope even further if the Raiders keep losing. One of their rare successes in 2022 was the win over the Denver Broncos in Week 4, but the performances have not taken much inspiration from that victory and the Raiders have lost three in a row.

Things have not been much better for Nathaniel Hackett in charge of the Denver Broncos as the big trade for Russell Wilson has proven to be a dud. The Offense has struggled with Wilson at Quarter Back and the defeat to the Tennessee Titans in Week 10 means the loser of this game can begin thinking about next season.

Russell Wilson has been a big disappointment and the Denver Broncos have not been helped with some key injuries to skill players around him. Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler are expected to be missing for the Broncos this week so the team will lean on the Defensive Line and hope they can open up some holes up front for the likes of Melvin Gordon and Latavius Murray.

Denver could not run the ball effectively against the Tennessee Titans, but that Defensive Line is considerably stronger than the one the Raiders will run onto the field and I think the Broncos could at least have a bit more success in this game. Regardless, they also need much more efficient play from Russell Wilson, who could finally have a little bit more time in the pocket than he has become used to and that should see the veteran Quarter Back put up some decent numbers when throwing the ball.

Finding a consistent Receiver is the bigger challenge for Russell Wilson as he looks to prove to the upper management that his deal is not one that the Broncos should regret going forward. A strong end to the season will at least offer that encouragement as Denver look for Wilson to make enough plays that the Defensive unit can back them up.

There has been nothing wrong with Denver on this side of the ball, but the one big weakness has been stopping the run and Josh Jacobs could have another big game against them. The Raiders Offensive Line have not been at their best in recent games, but they should be able to establish the run against the Denver Defensive Line which allowed Jacobs to pile up 144 yards in their first meeting and have allowed the last three opponents to average 5.2 yards per carry.

In recent games the Raiders Offensive Line have struggled to open holes for Jacobs, but this is a chance to bounce back.

This is so important for Las Vegas as Derek Carr continues to voice his frustrations with the way the season has gone for his team. The trade for Davante Adams was supposed to open things up for the Raiders and give them a real balance Offensively, but Line issues have meant protection has broken down and the inconsistency of the Offense has cost Las Vegas.

Derek Carr may get a little more time if Josh Jacobs can run the ball efficiently, but throwing into this Denver Secondary will be difficult anyway. The inconsistent passing game is not really one that can be trusted and this has the makings of a low-scoring game, although you do wonder how much the players are willing to give for Josh McDaniels after all of the rumours about his future.

I do think that has to be a factor in this game as the Las Vegas Raiders look to improve their 1-5 record against the spread in their last six road games. The Raiders have tended to play well against their Divisional rivals, but they are also 1-7 against the spread in their last eight when playing a team with a losing record.

Denver are hardly pulling up trees at the window, but they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six when hosting a team with a losing record on the road and I think Russell Wilson may do just enough to lead his team to a win here. Both have issues on the Defensive Line, but the Raiders have one or two more holes in the Secondary which can be exploited by the Broncos and I think it will lead to a narrow win for Nathaniel Hackett and push Josh McDaniels a little closer to another early exit when Head Coach in the AFC West.

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: You could see the visible frustration of Mike McCarthy on the sidelines, but everyone associated with the Dallas Cowboys (6-3) will know they blew a big opportunity to win at the Green Bay Packers in Week 10. A double digit lead and with the Defensive unit they have, the Cowboys could not have envisioned allowing a struggling Aaron Rodgers back into the game as they did, although the Week at least ended with the Philadelphia Eagles losing to keep the Cowboys 2 games behind the Division leaders.

With a big game looming on Thanksgiving Day against the New York Giants, the Dallas Cowboys head out on the road against another NFC North team this week in a bid to right the wrongs of the defeat to the Packers. This time the Dallas Cowboys have to face the Minnesota Vikings (8-1) who now have the joint best record in the NFC alongside the Eagles.

Last week the Vikings looked doomed after failing to score from the one yard line against the Buffalo Bills, but a mistake from the Center handing off to Josh Allen allowed them to somehow win in Overtime. No one will be bothered about how they win in Minnesota, but it is the latest victory from the jaws of defeat that have many questioning whether the Vikings are really as good as their record would say.

Like the Cowboys, the Minnesota Vikings are also set to play on Thanksgiving Day, but a healthy lead in the NFC North means they won't be overlooking any opponent on their way to trying to earn the Number 1 Seed in the Conference. That provides a huge boost to whichever team can earn it with the sole Bye through the Wild Card Round as well as home advantage through the PlayOffs.

The Vikings will likely turn to Dalvin Cook as their main source of Offensive firepower in this one as they look to expose the weakness on the Dallas Defensive unit. Throughout the 2022 regular season, it has been possible to run the ball right at the Dallas Cowboys and in recent games that weakness has been magnified so it would be worth the Vikings handing the ball to Cook and looking to stay in front of the chains.

This is vitally important to Kirk Cousins and the passing game as it will open up the passing game for the shots downfield that have been key to the success the Vikings have had. Adding TJ Hockenson to the passing game has been a boost, while Justin Jefferson is almost a player that cannot be guarded by any Defensive Back in the League.

However, this all works if the Vikings are in front of the chains.

Any third and long spot is likely going to see Kirk Cousins put under immense pressure from this Dallas pass rush and that has led to many issues for the Quarter Back throughout his career. After allowing Aaron Rodgers to connect with some big plays in the passing game, the Cowboys do have something to prove this week, but Kirk Cousins is someone who can be rattled into mistakes and that will be the key for the visiting team.

On the other side of the ball, the Dallas Cowboys will be looking to achieve the same as the Minnesota Vikings and that is to remain in a situation where they can hand the ball to Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard and look for them to rip off some big games. Like the Cowboys, the Minnesota Defensive Line has struggled to stop the run and now face a strong Dallas Offensive Line which will feel can dominate the line of scrimmage.

Personally I would like to see Dallas give Pollard the majority of the carries with the speed he has and the momentum the younger Running Back has picked up in the absence of Elliot, although the latter's superior pass protection abilities could be useful when the Cowboys want to break out some play-action for Dak Prescott. Both Running Backs should be able to keep Dallas in front of the chains and there are some holes in the Minnesota Secondary that Dak Prescott can exploit as long as he improves his accuracy.

Unfortunately that has been a big problem for Prescott at times and leads to some ugly looking turnovers, but he is blessed with some solid Receiving options. Unlike Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott does receive some pass protection and I do think the Dallas running game could slow down the Minnesota pass rush to make things that much more comfortable for their own Quarter Back.

The Vikings have thrived in turning the ball over through the air and that has helped them win some close games so it is something Dak Prescott has to hope to avoid. His two Interceptions absolutely hurt the Dallas Cowboys last week, but I think Prescott and the Cowboys bounce back here and they can win this one on the road.

Dallas have covered in their last four after a straight up loss, while they are 10-3 against the spread in their last thirteen on the road.

You can't take anything away from any team that has an 8-1 record, but I do think the Vikings have benefited from a few breaks that have gone their way and that means they are a vulnerable team. The Vikings are also 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six against NFC opponents and I think the Dallas Cowboys can win this one on the road.

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers Pick: The record may have the San Francisco 49ers (5-4) sitting in second place in the NFC West, but the trades made by the team and the roster as it is may be signs that this is the team to beat in the Conference. They are a half game behind the Seattle Seahawks in the Divisional lead, but the 49ers have won two in a row and injuries are also clearing up on both sides of the ball, which is key as we progress towards the end of the regular season.

Finishing with the top Seed in the NFC will be tough considering the records the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings have put together, but winning the Division will mean at least one home PlayOff game and potentially more. That is going to be the ambition of the San Francisco 49ers as they head to Mexico City for what is the final international game being played in the NFL in the 2022 season.

The 49ers will be playing Divisional rivals the Arizona Cardinals (4-6) in this one and the team will be sweating on the availability of Kyler Murray who missed the win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 10. It was an important win with Colt McCoy behind Center after the Cardinals had lost four of their previous five games, but they cannot afford too many more slip ups between now and the end of the regular season if the Cardinals have genuine hopes of returning to the post-season themselves.

Injuries have also been an issue for the Cardinals in building their losing record, but that is not likely going to keep Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury in a job unless he can turn things around. Some of the decisions made by the Coaching staff will have fans scratching their heads and it certainly will have upper management considering the direction the team are heading in.

There is no doubting how different the Arizona Offensive unit looks with Colt McCoy at Quarter Back and when Kyler Murray lines up in that spot. The athleticism of the former cannot be dismissed, but no one would accuse anyone of being disrespectful if they say Murray offers much more of a dual-threat and may have the San Francisco Defense thinking a little more.

Regardless, this is a very tough 49ers Defensive unit for any team to face and they have been strong along the Defensive Line with an ability to clamp down on the run. Having Kyler Murray may pose a few more problems, but the San Francisco Defensive Line will feel they can contain a Quarter Back who cannot be at full health and force him to beat them with his arm.

In recent games there have been one or two holes in a banged up Secondary, but whoever lines up at Quarter Back is likely going to be facing a fierce pass rush around them with the team expected to be operating out of third and long spots. Stopping DeAndre Hopkins won't be easy, but the 49ers have to feel they can win more often than not on this side of the ball and at least put themselves in a position to win this game.

Unlike the Cardinals, the 49ers have added Christian McCaffrey to their Running Back room and this is a team that will just throw in a few creases to establish the run. They should be able to do that against this Arizona Defensive Line and that only makes life that much more comfortable for Jimmy Garoppolo, even if the Quarter Back still feels like little more than a game-manager.

Running the ball may give Garoppolo more time to try and hit a vulnerable Secondary, while the Quarter Back also picks up big yards by shooting out short passes and letting his Receivers pile up the yards after the catch. That will be the key for the 49ers as they look to keep the chains moving and put the pressure on the Cardinals to keep up on the scoreboard, and I do think this could lead to a relatively strong win for San Francisco.

Arizona won both regular season meetings between these teams last season so there will be a huge amount of motivation in the 49ers locker room to get this right.

The 49ers have covered in their last five games against their Divisional rivals, while San Francisco are also 15-4 against the spread in their last nineteen Monday Night Football games.

On the other side, Arizona are now 1-6 against the spread in their last seven Divisional games, while they are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight against a team with a winning record. This is a big spread, but the feeling is that there will be one or two mistakes by the Arizona Cardinals, which allows San Francisco to have the extra possessions to come away with a victory and a cover.

MY PICKS: Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

New York Giants - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Denver Broncos - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Dallas Cowboys - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

NFL Week 11 Picks 2016 (November 17-21)

The previous three weeks of the NFL season has put the season in a really strong position, but Week 10 took a huge step back with the worst week of the 2016 season so far.

I've got to be a little annoyed by that with Carolina blowing a huge lead against the Kansas City Chiefs, the New Orleans Saints fumbling away their chances of beating the Denver Broncos, and then the Pittsburgh Steelers losing in the last moment to the Dallas Cowboys. Those three teams landing my way would have produced another winning week, but instead I couldn't get out of my own way in Week 10 to remove all of the good work done.

There are still plenty of weeks left in the regular season as well as the Play Offs to end this season, but the hard work has to start again to get the 2016 season moving in the direction I want.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: I have never been a big fan of backing the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover big numbers as they seem to have some problems in that spot, but I have done that before this season and I will be doing the same in Week 11. The Steelers have been in a slump, but they pointed the fingers at themselves in Week 10 after some mental mistakes helped the Dallas Cowboys come back and beat the Steelers in a high-scoring shoot out at Heinz Field.

The Steelers are now trailing the Baltimore Ravens by one game in the AFC North and have also lost their first game against that team which means they can't overlook any team they face. Add in the fact that Pittsburgh have lost four in a row and Mike Tomlin and the players have to be very focused on the Cleveland Browns who have yet to win a game.

Pittsburgh are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven games against Cleveland and their Offensive unit came alive in Week 10 which will give them confidence against a Browns Defensive unit that have allowed at least 28 points in each of their last eight games.

Much is going to depend on Ben Roethlisberger and the passing game, but the Quarter Back looked very much on the same page as his Receivers a week ago. Le'Veon Bell gives him a threat in the passing game while the returning Ladarius Green gives Roethlisberger a big threat in the End Zone to go along with Antonio Brown. The Cleveland Browns have struggled against the pass and it would be a real surprise if Roethlisberger is not able to have a big game statistically in this one.

Bell has not been able to run the ball as effectively as he would have liked in recent games, but he could get back on track if Cleveland start protecting against the pass and I like the Steelers moving the chains and getting back on track here.

With this number the question is whether Cleveland can find enough offense to stay with their visitors. It looks like Hue Jackson has picked Cody Kessler as his starting Quarter Back again this week after somehow pulling him from a tight game with the Baltimore Ravens in Week 10, but the Head Coach has also made it clear that he will give every player a chance to prove they deserve to stay long term with the Browns.

Kessler has made some solid plays at Quarter Back, but things have been more difficult in recent games with Cleveland struggling to run the ball. Isaiah Crowell is a decent Running Back, but the Browns are averaging under 50 yards per game on the ground in their last three games and Pittsburgh have been a little stronger up front despite the big holes that Dallas exposed at the end of their game in Week 10.

That means Kessler is having to make plays behind a porous Offensive Line which has struggled to protect him and that has led to some mistakes being made. While the Steelers don't have the pass rush of old, they have been able to get to the Quarter Back in recent games and put some pressure on that player and I think that is going to be the case with Kessler this week too.

There is a lot of money on the Steelers with the public convinced by them and I think they will be focused knowing they can't afford to let their losing run continue to slide. It is a lot of points, but the Browns have allowed a lot of points in the last few weeks as the turnovers have hurt and I am looking for Pittsburgh to win this one by at least eight points.


Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The Dallas Cowboys will always garner a lot of attention from the media, but this current team looks like one that might be able to go all the way and win the Super Bowl. This week it was off field issues that took the headlines as Tony Romo admitted he has lost the Quarter Back job to Dak Prescott and is willing to be the backup going forward.

That has eased any questions about what Dallas would do when Romo was cleared to play and it was certainly the right decision with Prescott leading the team to eight straight wins. He has been helped massively by the best Offensive Line in the NFL and rookie Running Back Ezekiel Elliot, while the Defensive unit have been better than advertised despite being banged up.

Both Prescott and Elliot have come through those tests that everyone has wanted to see with Dallas beating both Green Bay and Pittsburgh on the road, two teams that were considered amongst the favourites to win the Super Bowl back in August. This is another test for both players though as they face a Baltimore Ravens team that continues to be amongst the best Defensive teams in the NFL.

It is going to be a lot of fun to see the Dallas Offensive Line try and open holes against a Baltimore Defensive Line that have been stout against the run. I don't doubt Elliot will make some big plays, but the Ravens are capable of shutting down the run, at least relatively, and try and see if the rookie Quarter Back is going to avoid some the big mistakes like he has all season.

Prescott didn't play well in his last game at home though against the Philadelphia Eagles and he will be throwing against a Baltimore team that gets a fierce pass rush towards the Quarter Back. The Offensive Line has protected Prescott well, while the Quarter Back can move well enough inside and outside of the pocket to extend plays, but the Ravens Secondary have done a good job and Baltimore's Defense can give them a chance in this one.

You have to note that Dallas are still likely to move the chains and they should have a more effective running game than the Baltimore Ravens who have struggled with Terrance West showing he is not the answer for them at Running Back. Kenneth Dixon might get a few more plays and is also a solid pass catcher out of the backfield, but Baltimore won't be getting a lot of help for Joe Flacco who has not been as careful with the ball as he should be.

Flacco has a lot of experience but was called out by Ray Lewis for showing little passion which did come as a surprise during the week. Being in third and long is tough for any Quarter Back, but Flacco has been asked to throw a little deeper under a new Offensive Co-Ordinator and there are holes in the Dallas Secondary that he can expose in Week 11. The problem for Flacco has been the Interceptions, but Baltimore will have a real chance in this one if the Quarter Back can avoid those and find the likes of Steve Smith, Dennis Pitta and Breshad Perriman down the field.

I like what the Cowboys have done this season, but this looks a lot of points to give to a very good Defensive team that should get enough from their Offense to stay in the game. The Cowboys also have a huge Divisional game against the Washington Redskins to come on Thanksgiving this week which might take away some of the focus. The Baltimore Ravens have plenty of motivation in a tighter Division and I think getting more than a converted Touchdown worth of points is too much and I will take the road underdog.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions Pick: It looks like most of the public money is going to be on the NFC North Division leaders the Detroit Lions who were handed that position in their bye week thanks to both Minnesota and Green Bay losing. They actually have the same record as the free-falling Minnesota Vikings and the fact that the Detroit Lions are facing them on the short week on Thanksgiving Day has to mean there is every chance that they are not as focused in Week 11 as they should be.

On the other hand the Detroit Lions are coming off a bye week and face the Jacksonville Jaguars who look to be some distance from becoming a Play Off team again. They have lost four in a row thanks to some poor play from the Offensive unit, namely Blake Bortles who looks to have regressed at Quarter Back.

That has put the pressure on Gus Bradley as Head Coach with this expected to be the year they could challenge in the AFC South. The fact the Division has not been as good as many others makes the Jaguars 2-7 record feel even worse than it should do and they look to be in the last chance saloon as far as this season goes.

Bortles struggles have been a big concern for the Jaguars with most of his statistical numbers being put up when games have been out of reach. Interceptions have been a big problem for Bortles, but the Detroit Secondary have not played that well through the course of the season and the likes of Allen Robinson and Julius Thomas are big weapons in the passing game if Bortles is avoiding the poor decisions.

There will be some pressure up front from the Lions which has to be respected and the pressure is likely to be on Bortles' shoulders as Jacksonville won't find it easy to get either TJ Yeldon or Chris Ivory established in this one. I do think they can have some decent runs, but the Lions Defensive Line has played well although I am convinced Bortles can make some solid plays if he is fully focused on what he is seeing on the field.

The better Quarter Back in this game is clearly going to be Matt Stafford for the Detroit Lions, but he has had some inconsistent performances. This week is going up against an underrated Defensive unit of the Jaguars especially as Stafford has not really been helped by much of a running game either.

There is room for a Running Back to take advantage but those inconsistencies means it will be more likely to come down to Stafford and what he can do when it comes to throwing the ball. Stafford is more than capable of making every throw he needs to, but there have been times the Receivers don't seem to be on the same page as their Quarter Back although they have had two weeks to work on things.

The Jaguars Secondary has played pretty well this season when Bortles is not leaving them with short fields to protect and they will believe they can make some key stops of this Detroit team. Stafford has perhaps looked after the ball better than in previous years without an obvious passing target like Calvin Johnson in the line up, but I do think the Jaguars can make some big plays which can give them a chance of keeping this one close.

You can't ignore the fact that Detroit have a huge Divisional game with Minnesota to come on Thursday which could give them the tiebreaker over the Vikings and I can see them overlook the Jaguars in Week 11. The Lions might have a winning record, but none of their wins have come by more than six points this season and I am going to back the Jaguars to stay within this number.


Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: This could be an absolutely huge game when it comes to working out the NFC Wild Card spots at the end of the 2016 season as two teams with similar records meet in Week 11. The Arizona Cardinals have been massively underachieving, but there aren't many teams in a bigger slide than the Minnesota Vikings who opened the season at 5-0 but have now lost four in a row.

Losing Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson looked to have sapped any hope that the Vikings had of winning the Super Bowl, but the trade for Sam Bradford looked to be working well at 5-0. However that had much to do with how well the Minnesota Defense had played early in the season, but they are beginning to spend far too much time on the field than on the sidelines which has hurt their effectiveness.

Minnesota hadn't allowed more than 16 points in any game in their winning run, but they have given up 20 plus points in each of their losses. There has been a little misfortune for the Vikings, but Sam Bradford is going to be under immense pressure to try and help the home team beat the visiting Cardinals this week.

Bradford has been given an almost non-existent running support without Peterson and there doesn't look to be a lot of room for success against an Arizona Defensive Line that have been stout up front. The Quarter Back will need every yard that either Matt Asiata or Jerick McKinnon can give him because the Offensive Line is banged up and Bradford has taken far too many hits of late.

The Cardinals have players like Chandler Jones up front that will be expected to get into the backfield all afternoon in this one and Bradford has shown he can be a little fragile at Quarter Back. Another injured Quarter Back is the last thing Minnesota need, and even a quick release is not going to help Bradford as his main Receiving target is likely to be bottled up by Patrick Peterson.

I do think Bradford will struggle for a big game, but Carson Palmer looks to be in the final few plays of his own career. 2015 was a very good regular season for Palmer, but 2016 has been much more difficult and taking on a Minnesota Defensive unit that is still amongst the best in the NFL is going to be tough for him. Like Bradford, Palmer can't look for David Johnson to earn too many yards on the ground against a stout Defensive Line, although Johnson has proven to be an effective safety blanket sneaking out of the backfield.

One difference between the Quarter Backs does look to be looking after the ball- where Bradford has been given a cautious playbook, Palmer is still being asked to throw downfield by Bruce Arians and has been guilty of some poor decisions. Turnovers could be huge here, while Palmer has also not been given a lot of time by his Offensive Line which is again a similarity to Bradford's situation.

This has all the makings of a close game, but I am leaning towards the road team with the points. Both Defenses are likely to be on top for most of the afternoon, but Minnesota's might spend more time on the field and I think the biggest playmaker who should have room to perform is likely to be David Johnson. If Arizona can get the ball in his hands more than Minnesota can get it to Stefon Diggs, I do think the road team can win this game and I will take the points.

I really hope Palmer can avoid the Interceptions that have hurt him and the Cardinals this season, but doing so should give Arizona the chance for an upset win on the road.


New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: This is the chance for Tom Brady to play back in his home State and there has to be plenty of motivation for him to help get the New England Patriots back to winning ways after losing in Week 10 to the Seattle Seahawks. The Patriots were on the goal line when stopped last week as they looked to tie the game with Seattle, but they shouldn't have as many issues against a San Francisco 49ers Defensive unit that have struggled all season.

Rob Gronkowski won't be a target for Brady having been given the week off to rest after suffering a huge hit against the Seahawks. While he will be missed, New England should not be overly concerned about missing their starting Tight End with Martellus Bennett more than capable of standing in for this game.

The Quarter Back also has the likes of Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman who can make some solid plays for Brady and there are plenty of holes for Tom Brady to attack in the Secondary. He will be helped by LeGarrette Blount who can also have a huge game against the 49ers who have struggled to contain the run and I think it isn't too difficult to think New England will move the chains and likely score 30 plus points in this one.

In relation to the spread, the bigger question is whether Colin Kaepernick can find a consistent game to make the plays for San Francisco. Kaepernick has had some positive starts in recent games but not been able to make the second half adjustments and playing a Bill Belichick Defense is never easy when he makes it his mission to take away the biggest Offensive weapon.

In this case that might be Carlos Hyde, Dejuan Harris and the running game as New England look to force San Francisco to beat them through the air. Stopping the run has been an issue since Belichick decided he wanted to trade away Jamie Collins from the Linebacker position, but you have to believe he will have set out the task to stop San Francisco running the ball and make Kaepernick throw from third and long to some inconsistent Receivers.

Chandler Jones was the other big name traded away by New England in 2016 and they have not really been able to push the Offensive Line backwards and get to the Quarter Back. That should see Kaepernick make some plays with his legs to get away from any pressure generated, but I am not sure the 49ers can find the consistency to stay with the Patriots in this one.

I think New England will come out with a point to prove from last week and Kaepernick is due a really bad game. A Head Coach like Belichick can confuse Kaepernick enough to force mistakes from him and I think Brady will be playing with a point to prove this week after losing at home in Week 10. The first half could be tight, but I expect the Patriots to pull away in the second and cover the double digit spread on the road.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: This has been the time of the season when the Seattle Seahawks start heating up and they are heading into Week 11 with two very good wins behind them. They were perhaps a little fortunate to knock off the Buffalo Bills, but looked stronger still when beating the New England Patriots and I think this is a team that is getting healthier at the right time.

The most important piece from them from an Offensive standpoint has always been Russell Wilson as the mobile Quarter Back has been able to escape pressure and make big plays on the run. He has made the Offensive Line look better than they are and the ankle looks a lot better which gives Wilson the chance to do what he has become famous for in the NFL.

The Seahawks are hosting the Philadelphia Eagles who beat one of the better NFC teams last week when knocking off the Atlanta Falcons but who had lost four of five before that. Wilson will have seen some of the big plays that the Eagles have given up in the Secondary and will be encouraged he can do the same with players like Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham big time Receivers for him.

An improving ankle will also help the running game as Wilson has become a threat again, but Seattle have also found confidence in CJ Prosise and Thomas Rawls. That confidence has seen Seattle move on from Christine Michael who was waived this week and the Seahawks will begin to feel they can get back to the running game that has been a feature of their team over the last few years. It might not happen so much this week, but Prosise showed he can make some tough runs in Week 10 and can also be effective as a catcher out of the backfield.

I do expect Seattle to score their points in this one which puts the pressure on Carson Wentz who won't have played in too many Stadiums that come close to the loudness of Seattle. The rookie Quarter Back has had some big games, but this game might be leaning more on his shoulders when you think of the difficult that Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles are going to have when it comes to running the ball against the Seattle Defensive Line.

There have been a few more holes in the Secondary than we are used to seeing with the Legion of Boom, but a returning Kam Chancellor makes them tougher. I also think it will be tough for Wentz to find the time to throw downfield against a fierce pass rush and with Lane Johnson still missing through suspension on the Offensive Line.

Wentz has not been as effective on the road as he has at home and I think the Seahawks are going to have the Quarter Back under pressure most times he drops back to throw the ball. That is going to make it tough for Philadelphia to keep the chains moving in one of the most difficult road environments in the NFL and I think they will do well to stay in this game.

The Seattle Defense has not been as strong as in previous seasons, but they are good enough to give this rookie Quarter Back a few problems and I can see them winning by at least a Touchdown.


Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins Pick: How many people would have picked the Green Bay Packers to be at 4-5 at this stage of the season? From a Super Bowl contender, the Packers are in danger of not even making the Play Offs after being embarrassed by the Tennessee Titans, although being in a weak Division like the NFC North has kept them alive.

The Washington Redskins have a better record than the Packers, but they are in a loaded Division in the NFC East which sees them trailing the Dallas Cowboys by 2.5 games. That makes this game a really big one, but the Redskins will be visiting Dallas on Thursday afternoon in the second of the Thanksgiving Day games and that is the bigger game having already lost at home to Dallas this season.

I don't think they can afford to overlook this one, but it does raise some issues for Washington to show they can contend with. They are going to be confident of moving the chains with Kirk Cousins showing he is perhaps a better Quarter Back than even some of his team mates believed earlier in the season. Rob Kelley is a rookie Running Back, but has shown he is capable of running the ball for Washington which has helped keep Cousins in third and manageable spots.

The troubles Green Bay have had in the Secondary will not have been unnoticed by Cousins even if deep threat DeSean Jackson is set to miss out in Week 11. There are still enough Receivers for Cousins to keep the chains moving unless Green Bay have suddenly rediscovered their mojo in the Secondary while Cousins should have time behind an Offensive Line that may be missing Trent Williams, but being kept in third and short spots thanks to the running game.

While I do think Washington move the chains, I also do think Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Offense have played better in recent weeks than how they began the season. Christine Michael has been signed to give the Packers another Running Back to join James Starks and give the Packers some balance and I can see those two players at least keeping the Redskins honest.

Mike McCarthy will be hoping for more than just a running game which is there to keep Washington from selling out on the pass, especially as there feels like little doubt that Aaron Rodgers is going to be under pressure from Ryan Kerrigan and the Washington pass rush. The Offensive Line has not been able to give Rodgers the time he has been used to especially as the Quarter Back has perhaps not been as mobile as previous years and being in third and long allows teams to pin back their ears and get after him.

Injuries on the Offensive Line have hurt Green Bay too but there are some holes in the Secondary that Rodgers can get the ball moving downfield. DaVante Adams, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson have shown they can get free and make some plays for Rodgers and the Packers are likely going to need to be on the right side of a shoot out.

That game in Dallas definitely has to be on the Washington players minds and I think that can play a part in this one. Green Bay as the underdog getting the full Field Goal feels too much and I can see them keeping this close in a shoot out and perhaps even upsetting Washington as they did in the Play Offs last season. I'll take the points in what could be a fun Sunday Night Football game.

MY PICKS: Pittsburgh Steelers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens + 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)