In a couple of years we could be just about coming out of a Winter Break if the Premier League proposals are improved, but for now all of the teams in the top flight in England will be getting ready for another important round of fixtures.
I've started this thread on a Thursday to cover the Arsenal vs Manchester City fixture which is being made up from the weekend when the two teams met in the League Cup Final.
Arsenal would have seen the first silverware of the season slip away on Sunday and also their chances of a top four finish look as bleak as the weather to say the least.
The same could potentially be said for Chelsea who blew a 0-1 lead at Manchester United last weekend and have to revisit Manchester to take on the runaway leaders on Sunday. With the teams above them all having what look like winnable League games, Chelsea could find themselves 5 points off the top four with nine games remaining at the end of the weekend.
Antonio Conte is back under pressure and Chelsea have a big month ahead which includes hosting Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League as well as a trip to Barcelona after this game at Manchester City. Those three games may just determine how this season is going to end for Conte and Chelsea before what looks an inevitable parting in the summer.
The likes of Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Manchester United have to take advantage of Chelsea's tough fixture this weekend. It is very important to the latter two teams who meet at Old Trafford next Saturday as the race for the Champions League places begins to heat up.
This weekend is also a big one at the bottom of the table with Southampton hosting Stoke City the biggest game for those teams threatened with relegation. It really feels like the losing team could spiral out of the Division in that fixture which only increases the importance of the three points on offer on another big weekend in England.
Arsenal v Manchester City Pick: The worst thing that could happen to Arsene Wenger and Arsenal is conceding early in this Premier League game on Thursday as they try and get the fans back behind them after a poor showing in the League Cup Final.
It may have been a different story if Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang had not missed what looked a big opportunity in the first ten minutes of the Cup Final, but there was not a lot of belief in the Arsenal ranks once they went 2-0 down.
Bouncing back against Manchester City won't be easy with Pep Guardiola unlikely to make wholesale changes to his starting eleven. I can imagine some defensive changes are made to make sure Vincent Kompany is fit for the Chelsea game on Sunday, while the likes of Bernado Silva, Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus could also freshen attacking areas, but Manchester City will bring a strong squad to town.
Their recent away performances have not been as strong as Guardiola may have liked and that does make Manchester City look short odds to win here at the Emirates Stadium. As poor as Arsenal were on Sunday, I do expect a reaction at home where they have a strong record this season and I would be stunned if they waved the white flag as quickly at the Emirates Stadium.
Arsenal certainly can cause problems for Manchester City at the back, but the bigger concern for the fans will be how poor Arsenal have looked defensively. It would be a huge surprise if they are able to contain Manchester City and I am going back to the same market which only just let me down on Sunday.
Namely I expect to see four or more goals shared out.
Neither defence is watertight and Arsenal games at the Emirates Stadium against the teams above them have produced fireworks so far this season. The League games against Manchester United (1-3), Liverpool (3-3) and Chelsea (2-2) have all produced four or more goals and Arsenal showed considerable fight in all of those games despite being behind in all of those.
I expect a little more from Arsenal going forward at home, while Manchester City will play the same way and look to cause panic in the backline for the home team. As long as Arsenal don't give up in the same manner they did at Wembley Stadium, chances should come through the ninety minutes and I will back four or more goals to be shared out.
Burnley v Everton Pick: This may be the opening live Premier League game of the weekend but everything is pointing to a tight encounter with few goals scored.
There are times when that expectation can be blown away by an early goal which will produce an entertaining game, but Burnley and Everton will both focus on being tight and tough to beat. With Sean Dyche and Sam Allardyce having a week to organise the defences in the manner they would like, it could be difficult for the creative players to really show off their talents and goals may come at a premium.
Burnley home games have simply not featured a lot of goals this season with just twenty-one scored here in 14 Premier League games. Late goals have seen the last couple end 1-1 and that is the only scoreline that really worries me when it comes to my pick from this fixture.
Backing under 1.5 goals looks to be the call with only late goals preventing that happening in the last 3 Burnley home games. The team continue to be tough to break down and more than half of their 14 Premier League home games have ended with one or fewer goals shared out.
Everton have been poorer defensively away from home which is a concern, while they have some talented players in the attacking areas that could give Burnley problems. However the defeat last weekend at Watford showed an Everton team more focused on getting things right defensively which affected their attacking intent and I am going to have a small interest in one or fewer goals scored here.
Some may want to keep the 1-1 score on their side, which is a real player having occurred in 3 of the last 4 Burnley games, but I will look for both teams to be tight enough to prevent a huge outlay of goals in this one.
Leicester City v Bournemouth Pick: There is still something for Leicester City to aim for from a strong finish in the Premier League but they were lacking some ideas in the 1-1 home draw with Stoke City last weekend. The Foxes improved once they equalised, but the focus has to be on winning the FA Cup now they have reached the Quarter Final Round.
However there is every chance 7th place in the Premier League will offer Leicester City the best chance for a return to European Football next season and they should be able to give Bournemouth a few problems in this one.
I don't doubt Bournemouth can have their successes too if Leicester City are as flat as they were last weekend. Bournemouth have been scoring plenty of goals in their recent games although defensively there remain some problems which comes with the style of play Eddie Howe wishes to employ.
Recent Leicester City home games have not featured as many goals as you may think, but I think they can get one more than last weekend when they host Bournemouth this weekend. The away side are capable of punishing Leicester City if they defend as they did against Stoke City, but I also expect more from the home team and will back at least three goals to be shared out in this one.
Southampton v Stoke City Pick: A true relegation six pointer looks to be set to be played at St Mary's on Saturday when Southampton host Stoke City and there is a sense that the winning team can use this as a springboard to avoid relegation while the losing team would be in huge trouble.
That means tension in the air and that could restrict the way both Southampton and Stoke City are able to express themselves.
Both teams have had some positive results of late, but the problem has been turning some of those into wins. Stoke City may be particularly concerned having missed a penalty for a home win over Brighton, and also leading at both Bournemouth and Leicester City without picking up the three points.
However they have looked a little more solid under Paul Lambert's guidance and only a couple of mistakes have let them down. They are facing a Southampton team who have not scored more than once at home in any of their last 7 Premier League games going back to November and Stoke City may feel they can restrict the home team which could lead to an upset here.
Southampton look very short for a team who have not won a League game at home since the 4-1 win over Everton in November, especially as they failed to beat Huddersfield Town and Brighton in that run. Stoke City are a similar kind of team who will look to frustrate the home team and then look for their classy players like Xherdan Shaqiri to create something.
The lack of wins for Southampton makes it hard to think they can win this fixture comfortably and backing Stoke City on the Asian Handicap which returns half the stake in a narrow loss looks the call. Stoke City have not played well away from home for much of the season, but they have led in their last 2 away League games and getting in front will likely make it very tough for Southampton to beat them.
The home team haven't had a clean sheet in their last 9 Premier League games at St Mary's so I will take Stoke City with the start on the Asian Handicap.
Tottenham Hotspur v Huddersfield Town Pick: Finishing in the top four and having a place back in the Champions League is very important for Tottenham Hotspur who are set to move into New White Hart Lane in August.
The late goal at Crystal Palace last weekend has helped Tottenham Hotspur move into the top four and they have a chance to put 5 points between themselves and 5th placed Chelsea who travel to Manchester City on Sunday.
Hosting Huddersfield Town at Wembley Stadium where Tottenham Hotspur have won 6 in a row in all competitions should be the kind of fixture Spurs are able to win comfortably enough.
The only doubt I really have is that Tottenham Hotspur play the Second Leg of their Champions League Last 16 tie against Juventus during the week with that tie finely balanced at 2-2 after the First Leg in Turin. The fans will be distracted by looking ahead to a big Champions League night so the key for Mauricio Pochettino is making sure his players are not overlooking a Huddersfield Town team who have won back to back Premier League games.
If they are Huddersfield Town can be organised enough to cause some problems, although they have not been capable of really shutting down the very best teams in the Premier League. There is no doubt that Tottenham Hotspur are one of those and their big names were rested in the win over Rochdale and I do like the home team to produce a comfortable win on the day.
Huddersfield Town did win at The Hawthorns last weekend, but they had been struggling away from home in the Premier League prior to that. Conceding goals has been an issue for Huddersfield Town and Tottenham Hotspur have been scoring plenty of goals at Wembley Stadium in recent months.
The Terriers have played 8 Premier League games against the top six clubs this season so far and they have conceded at least twice in 7 of those. They have lost 7 of those 8 games and 6 of those losses have come by two or more goals with 4 of those coming by three or more margins.
I would anticipate Tottenham Hotspur are able to win by at least a two goal margin on Saturday, but I am going to back them on the Asian Handicap to perhaps go one better. At worst I would expect the stake to be returned, but Liverpool and Arsenal have beaten Huddersfield Town by three or more goals in home games this season and I will look for Tottenham Hotspur to do the same.
That would be ideal preparation for the Champions League Second Leg against Juventus on Wednesday.
Watford v West Brom Pick: This could be it as far as West Brom's future as a Premier League club is concerned as well as Alan Pardew's short time managing at The Hawthorns.
Pardew was reportedly criticised by Chris Brunt for the poor tactics employed in the 1-2 defeat to Huddersfield Town last weekend which has put West Brom in a really deep hole as far as survival is concerned. The fans were also very unhappy with the performance and the board have seemingly given Pardew one game to prove that he can turn things around in the final 10 Premier League games.
It is a big ask for West Brom even if they change manager and they head to Vicarage Road where Watford have won back to back League games. The home team have battled through a deep injury list which added Gerard Deulofeu to it last weekend, but Watford have looked much more settled with Javi Gracia than they were under Marco Silva during his final days in charge.
However this has to be the kind of fixture that Alan Pardew would have targeted for West Brom to try and get out of trouble. The same could be said last weekend against Huddersfield Town at home, but defensively there are too many goals being conceded by West Brom.
The Baggies have created some big chances of their own though and I think they will have chances in this one too. Even though Watford earned a clean sheet last weekend, they have been defensively poor at times and games at Vicarage Road have seen plenty of goals shared out prior to the 1-0 win over Everton.
I expect both teams will have their chances to score in this fixture, and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks a big price. West Brom games have involved plenty of goals of late and they can't sit back in this one, while Watford have been scoring and conceding goals for fun at home prior to last weekend.
Earlier this season these teams shared out four goals, but I will simply look for at least three to be scored in this one.
Liverpool v Newcastle United Pick: A cold snap has hit the United Kingdom over the last few days, but Liverpool and Newcastle United can combine to warm up the fans with an entertaining game of football on Saturday afternoon.
Games at Anfield have certainly not been short of goals in recent weeks, but Rafa Benitez will try and set Newcastle United up to frustrate his former club. That looks a long shot when you see how Newcastle United have defended away from home and instead the better option may be to try and get up further up the pitch and try and threaten Liverpool.
That has been made tougher with the likes of Jonjo Shelvey, Dwight Gayle and Islam Slimani not expected to be involved this weekend. However Newcastle United will still believe they have enough to at least cause problems for a Liverpool team who have not had a home clean sheet in their last 6 at Anfield in all competitions.
On the other hand, Liverpool have been very good in the final third in recent weeks which has seen the team score at least twice in their last 7 at Anfield. They will look to get Newcastle United on the back foot very early in this one and then look to counter their visitors when they do take some risks, and Liverpool will note how effective the other top clubs have been against Newcastle United at home.
Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City have all scored at least three times in home wins over Newcastle United this season, although The Magpies have scored in all 3 of those League games too. They could play a part in this one, but ultimately it would be a surprise if Liverpool don't win the game considering the kind of form they have been producing.
Backing at least four goals looks to be the play at odds against though and it is only a slightly shorter price than backing Liverpool to win a high-scoring game with that many goals shared out. It covers a high-scoring draw like Tottenham Hotspur earned at Anfield recently, while West Brom won 2-3 here in the FA Cup at the end of January which has to be respected.
Of course I do give a strong lean towards a Liverpool win, but they could concede on the way to help reach the four goal mark. All 3 Newcastle United away Premier League games at teams in the current top five have ended with at least four goals shared out and I will back that to be the outcome at odds against.
Brighton v Arsenal Pick: Arsene Wenger looked completely dejected in his post-match interview after watching his Arsenal team being outclassed by Manchester City for the second time in the space of a few days.
Questions have been raised about the future of Wenger again and the players have to pick themselves up from their confidence taking a battering worse than the United Kingdom has been from the 'Beast from the East'.
A poor away record in the Premier League doesn't inspire a lot of belief in Arsenal doing that this weekend even though they travel to the south coast to take on a Brighton team fighting relegation. However Brighton have picked up their form of late and 1 loss from their last 8 games in all competitions at the Amex Stadium makes them dangerous.
Brighton have begun to find goals from their play and have recorded 4 wins from their last 5 games at the Amex Stadium. They have scored at least twice in 5 of their last 6 home games in all competitions while Brighton have beaten West Ham United 3-1 and Swansea City 4-1 in their last couple of Premier League games here and will feel they can pose questions for an Arsenal backline which is far from being watertight.
Those defensive issues were highlighted in Arsenal's defeats at Bournemouth and Swansea City in the Premier League since the turn of the calendar year. With the confidence Brighton have been playing with, they will certainly feel they can create chances against Arsenal, although I also expect a lot better from Arsenal when they go forward.
With the attacking players Arsenal can call upon, they will be able to get at a Brighton defence which has not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 6 at home in all competitions. The likes of Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea have all visited the Amex Stadium and scored at least twice and I do think Arsenal will have their chances in this one too.
Picking a winner isn't easy when you consider the form of the two teams- I would have favoured Brighton to avoid defeat if they had a better record against the top six clubs this season, but they concede too many goals in those games. On the other hand Arsenal have struggled away from home all season and instead I am backing at least three goals to be shared out.
That has happened in the last 6 Brighton home games in all competitions, while 5 of Arsenal's last 8 away games have also seen that number reached. Neither defence will be confident of keeping a clean sheet and I will look for at least three goals to be shared out in this one.
Manchester City v Chelsea Pick: The Premier League title might be heading to Manchester City without too much fuss in the weeks ahead, but the other top clubs will be interested spectators as the race for the top four heats up.
I have little doubt that the likes of Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur will be looking for a favour from the runaway League leaders and Manchester City are playing well enough to think they can provide that.
The only concern for Manchester City has to be the fact they have played two games since Chelsea finished up at Old Trafford last Sunday, but Pep Guardiola did get to see his team coast through the second half of their win at the Emirates Stadium on Thursday. That should mean fatigue is not an issue for a team who have won 12 in a row at home in all competitions and their last 13 Premier League games here.
Chelsea could play a part with the performances they have produced against Barcelona and Manchester United, but failing to win games they led is a blow to the confidence. Worse still is losing at Old Trafford last weekend which has put their top four ambitions in a difficult spot especially if Chelsea fail to get something here.
It is hard to see them turning around form which has seen Chelsea lose their last 3 away games in all competitions, even though they led in a couple of those. With the likes of Eden Hazard, Willian and Pedro capable of causing problems for their potentially tired hosts, Chelsea can play a part in this one but ultimately their away form has been a concern and I think Manchester City will win this one.
Defensively Chelsea will have to be a lot better than they have been in recent away games if they are going to avoid the loss, but I do think they can score here too.
The last 3 Chelsea away games have all ended in losses despite scoring though and I will back Manchester City to win a game featuring three or more goals on Sunday.
Crystal Palace v Manchester United Pick: There was evidence of Roy Hodgson's frustration in the 0-1 loss to Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday with the television cameras picking up the former England manager banging his head against his seat after the late goal conceded by his Crystal Palace team.
Injuries have really hurt the Hodgson options and it comes at a time of the season when Crystal Palace have some big games coming thick and fast. Even a full strength Crystal Palace team would be an underdog in those games, but one hit with the long injury list like this one will really have a hard time.
One thing Hodgson will insist upon is hard work and defensive discipline and that almost worked in their narrow defeat to Tottenham Hotspur. He will be looking to frustrate a Manchester United team who have lost back to back away Premier League games at Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United without scoring, while goals have generally been something of an issue for Jose Mourinho's men having failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions.
However Manchester United should come into this Monday night kick off with some confidence after coming from behind to beat Chelsea last Sunday. Going behind and winning games is not something that has been that common for Manchester United in recent years, but doing so will have given the players a boost ahead of another big month.
This is a tough test to back that up with Crystal Palace being a tough team to play at Selhurst Park, even with the injuries in the squad. The absence of Wilfried Zaha is a huge blow for Crystal Palace and games without him have seen the team struggle to pose a consistent goal threat.
That may be a problem on Monday evening too and I think Manchester United will be able to create the chances that Tottenham Hotspur did here. A better day from Harry Kane would have led to a comfortable win for Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday with the big opportunities that came his way, and I think Manchester United will be able to find a goal or two here.
Ultimately they will look to keep Crystal Palace from building too much without Zaha and potentially Yohan Cabaye. That takes away some real creativity from the Crystal Palace team and Manchester United can win this one with a clean sheet.
MY PICKS: Arsenal-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley-Everton Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Leicester City-Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stoke City + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.94 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Liverpool-Newcastle United Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brighton-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 2.50 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Showing posts with label March 1-5. Show all posts
Showing posts with label March 1-5. Show all posts
Thursday, 1 March 2018
Wednesday, 1 March 2017
NBA Picks March 2017 (March 1-5)
Last month was a really strong one for the NBA Picks and I am looking to build on that in March in the final month of full regular season games in the NBA.
This is the time of the season when motivation is high throughout the Association, both in a positive and negative manner. There are some teams that might move into 'tank' mode over the course of the month to improve their lottery positions for the Draft, while the top teams are looking for the positive momentum that will get them ready for the Play Offs which begin in six weeks time.
I will have the first week of the March NBA Picks in this thread and look for a good start to the month after a really strong February.
Wednesday 1st March
New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic Pick: It has been another hard season to live through as a New York Knicks fan and there are signs that the franchise is looking to become one of the teams fighting for a decent position in the lottery. Releasing Brandon Jennings indicated that and there were reports that Derrick Rose would be the next Guard to be released, although the Knicks won't hear anything about 'tanking' just yet.
They are still 'only' 5 games out of the Eastern Conference Play Off picture, but the Knicks suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Toronto Raptors last time out. It was one where Carmelo Anthony displayed his frustration having missed an open look to win the game, while rumours about his future continue to dominate the headlines despite the trade deadline coming to a close this season.
Kristaps Porzingis is expected back for the Knicks in this game and this is going to tell us all we need to know about what New York are expecting the rest of the season. They are facing an Orlando Magic team who are one of three teams below them in the Eastern Conference standings although the Magic are well rested having not played since Saturday.
However Orlando have been a terrible favourite to back and are just 2-9 against the spread when laying points this season. The Magic might have blown out the Atlanta Hawks in their last game here, but the Knicks do look like they match up with them pretty well at both ends of the court and I do think they can win this game if they are focused on a strong end to the season.
New York are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine visits to Orlando and I will take the points on offer in this one knowing the last two Knicks games have been decided by a single point each time.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat Pick: There has to be some excitement in the Philadelphia fanbase that their 76ers are on the right road with all of the experiences of this season likely to make them better next time around. The 76ers have started giving their younger players more minutes with some trades made before the deadline and they have responded with some competitive performances, although finding wins is still just beyond their grasp.
They showed plenty of heart in their last game, which was a defeat to the Golden State Warriors, and it does feel like this Philadelphia 76ers roster are not going to give up easily in any game they play. Joel Embiid might still be out, but his enthusiasm has filtered through the roster and produced some big performances from the rest of the players.
It will be a difficult game on South Beach as Philadelphia travel to face the incredibly hot Miami Heat who are just 2 games out of the top eight in the Eastern Conference. The Heat will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss to the Dallas Mavericks last time out, and they will have revenge on their mind having seen their long winning run snapped by the 76ers before the All-Star Break.
The Heat do look a little stronger at both ends of the court which should produce a win, but asking them to cover this number won't be easy. Miami have only been favoured by 7 or more points twice this season and they are 1-1 against the spread in that spot, but they are 8-1-1 against the spread in their last ten at home.
However I like the fact that Philadelphia have a 4-1-1 record against the spread in their last six visits to Miami and the way they have been competing of late. I will take the points on offer and look for the 76ers to keep this one relatively close.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz Pick: The Utah Jazz put in a huge effort on Tuesday but they came up short at the Oklahoma City Thunder and now face a young and hungry Minnesota Timberwolves team who are desperate to get into the Play Offs. The Timberwolves have made a few mental errors which has cost them some games, but they can't afford to allow the Utah Jazz to pull away in this one.
While the Jazz have been a little up and down Offensively, they are one of the tougher Defensive teams in the NBA and won't allow Minnesota to score the kind of points they have been used to. The fact that the Timberwolves have struggled as much as they have Defensively over the course of the season makes this a dangerous number for them, but I do think they can cover with the points being given to them.
The emotional and physical effort Utah put into the loss at Oklahoma City has to play a part here and the Jazz are now 1-6-1 against the spread in the second of back to back games. The Timberwolves can match them on the rebounding statistics which will give them every chance of staying with Utah and Minnesota have been shooting efficiently enough to give Utah something to think about.
The focus at the beginning of the game is all important for Minnesota as they can show Utah they are in for a battle on Wednesday and that can wear down the hosts. Minnesota are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven visits to Utah and I do think they are going to be prepared for this one as they try and close the 3 game gap between themselves and the Denver Nuggets in the Number 8 Seed.
I will take the points being given to the road underdog here too.
Houston Rockets @ LA Clippers Pick: The LA Clippers are finally getting healthier and they are still in a position to earn a home series in the First Round of the Play Offs. This is a chance for the Clippers to show they are going to be able to compete with the best teams in the Western Conference as they host the Houston Rockets who look like a team who will likely settle into the Number 3 Seed in the Conference.
Mike D'Antoni is still looking for his Houston Rockets team to show they are capable of going all the way to the NBA Championship. While the Rockets have played well this season, they are looking for the consistency against the top teams that will make them a genuine threat to knock off the likes of the Golden State Warriors, although it does have to be said they are 9-5 against the spread when playing on the road against a team with a winning record.
Houston do look like they match up well with the LA Clippers with their superior shooting, but the Rockets are very reliant on the three point shot working to get them going. If that shot is off, the Rockets can struggle and that was the case when going down to the Indiana Pacers a couple of nights ago. However there is a depth in the roster that makes them a threat against any team, although Houston need to show more Defensively.
The LA Clippers can expose some of those Defensive vulnerabilities, but they are still working the returning Chris Paul into the rotation and I think this game might come a little too soon for that.
Being well matches against the Clippers has seen the Rockets go 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games against each other. I will take the road underdog in another game on Wednesday as I look for the Rockets to perhaps earn the upset.
Thursday 2nd March
The Golden State Warriors haven't really suffered too much adversity with injuries and the likes over the last couple of seasons when they have looked the best team in the NBA. However there is enough quality in the rotation to think the Warriors can overcome the absence of Durant at least the rest of the regular season and try and get him healthy for the Play Offs which are just six weeks away.
You have to imagine the rest of the players left will want to show that they are more than capable of playing without Durant and it can't be forgotten that the likes of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are still making up the starters. The Warriors can show that they are ready to go when they travel to the Chicago Bulls on Thursday, a team barely hanging on to a top eight spot in the Eastern Conference and looking to bounce back from a loss of their own.
Chicago were blown out by the Denver Nuggets in their last game here which snapped a four game winning run for the Bulls. That means they are also just 2.5 games clear of the teams chasing Play Off spots and I do think the Warriors are going to be too good at both ends of the court for them.
Golden State also have the size and energy to challenge Chicago on the boards, especially with Taj Gibson moved on to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Warriors have recovered from previous losses with a 4-1 record against the spread and I do think they will be motivated to show the rest of the NBA that it is a 'next man up' philosophy they hold now that Durant is out for the foreseeable future.
The Warriors are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five games with Chicago and I will look for them to cover this big number on the road.
Friday 3rd March
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: There are still plenty of noises coming out of the New York Knicks locker room when it comes to the Triangle Offense and whether the players are truly on board with that system. Derrick Rose, who will likely leave New York at the end of the season when entering Free Agency, was the latest player to voice his dissatisfaction with the system that took Phil Jackson to his numerous NBA titles, but the main focus is to keep the Knicks moving in a positive direction.
The bottom of the Eastern Conference is not very good in all honesty and the New York Knicks are only 5 games behind the Chicago Bulls who currently hold the Number 6 Seed. That has kept the likes of Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis to continue to tell the media that the Knicks are far from 'tanking' this season but actually believe they can make the Play Offs.
They can't afford to drop games like this if they are to do that as the Knicks get set to visit the Philadelphia 76ers who may have lost some belief with the news that Joel Embiid is out the rest of the season. While the rest of the players were producing big performances in anticipation of Embiid coming back, the news he was out led to a blow out loss at the Miami Heat last time out.
It looks like the 76ers might be lottery bound, but they did challenge the Knicks all the way last week when losing by a point in Madison Square Garden. I think there is every chance this game will be close, but the Knicks might just have a little more down the stretch and can pull away for a win by a wider margin than they had at home.
The Knicks should match up well with the 76ers on the court and a better rebounding day will make things a little easier and the return of Porzingis can help in that regard. New York are 11-4 against the spread in their last fifteen visits to Philadelphia and I will look for them to cover as the favourite here.
Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards Pick: Home and home series can be tough to get a read on because you have to think the team that lost the first of those games is going to be extra motivated in the next game. The zigzag theory which applies to the Play Offs seems to be at play here, but I think the Washington Wizards have the edge over the Toronto Raptors at the moment and I like them to frank their win in Canada by winning on Friday too.
That win on Friday actually snapped an eight game losing run to the Toronto Raptors, but this current Washington team is playing with the kind of confidence that is hard to build. Wins over the Golden State Warriors and the Raptors will have increased that confidence as Washington look to secure a top three finish in the Eastern Conference and perhaps even chase down the Boston Celtics for the Number 2 Seed.
The injury to Kyle Lowry is a huge blow for the Raptors and being without one of their star back court players is tough when faced with Bradley Beal and John Wall. There is only so much DeMar DeRozan can do and he will need help from some of the role players if the Raptors are going to reverse their home loss a couple of nights ago.
Washington have looked good though and they have also found increased production for the bench despite missing out on a move for Lou Williams prior to the trade deadline. The Raptors size will keep them in this game for a while, but Washington are big enough to earn their own rebounds which can see them pull away in this one.
The Wizards have been very strong at home and they have a stellar 16-6 record against the spread when favoured by less than 6 points so far this season. Toronto are just 3-8 against the spread in their last eleven against the Wizards, despite winning eight in a row straight up, and I will look for Washington to frank their win in Toronto by covering in a win here.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: Usually a loss in close fashion to the Boston Celtics would not raise a smile for fans of the Cleveland Cavaliers, but they have to like the way they performed despite a couple of key players like JR Smith and Kevin Love being missing. The Celtics had to give their absolute best to win the game and even then the Cleveland Cavaliers had a chance to win it at the end.
The arrival of Deron Williams and the impending arrival of Andrew Bogut has made LeBron James very happy and gives the Cavaliers the kind of depth he has been asking for all season. Now they feel they have the tools to defend the NBA Championship they won last June and a well oiled team is looking to cement their place of the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference.
Cleveland have a 3 game lead over the Boston Celtics at this time, but this is another tough road game for them at the Atlanta Hawks who have won two in a row and are looking to close the 1.5 game gap to the Toronto Raptors as one of the top four Seeds in the East. The Hawks had a really impressive win at the Boston Celtics on Sunday, but this is another big test for them to see where they actually stand in the Conference.
The superior three point shooting of the Cavaliers should play a part in this game and I am looking for them to bounce back from their loss last time out. The Atlanta Hawks are just 4-6 against the spread when given less than 4 points as the underdog this season, and they are just 4-9 against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record on the road.
Add in the fact that the Cavaliers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five visits to the Hawks and I think James and company can put a statement win in the books as well as covering this number on the road.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: The third road favourite I am backing on Friday night is the Memphis Grizzlies when they visit the Dallas Mavericks even though Memphis have a big game at the Houston Rockets to come on Saturday night. While some teams might be in a look ahead spot, I think the Grizzlies are motivated to try and finish as high as the Number 4 Seed in the Western Conference and losing games like this will prevent them from doing that.
There has been some inconsistency in the play from the Grizzlies over the last month, but they look to be in one of their peaks with back to back wins ahead of this one. They may also be catching the Dallas Mavericks at the right time with this team beginning to slip away from the Western Conference Play Off spots after losing four of their last six games.
Dallas will play tough with some veterans they have on the roster, but they have actively tried to get younger by allowing the likes of Deron Williams and Andrew Bogut be released from their contracts. Younger means inconsistent results and I do think Memphis have been more efficient at both ends of the court in recent games.
The Grizzlies should also have a size advantage which gives them the edge in the rebounding statistics while Memphis are 8-5 against the spread when favoured by less than 4 points this season and Dallas are 7-11 against the spread when given less than 4 points.
The favourite has also gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five games between these teams and I will look for Memphis to remain focused on the task at hand by concentrating on this game and winning and covering the spread.
MY PICKS: 01/03 New York Knicks + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
01/03 Philadelphia 76ers + 9 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
01/03 Minnesota Timberwolves + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
01/03 Houston Rockets + 2 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
02/03 Golden State Warriors - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
03/03 New York Knicks - 2 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
03/03 Washington Wizards - 5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
03/03 Cleveland Cavaliers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
03/03 Memphis Grizzlies - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
March 1-5 Update: 4-5, - 1.28 Units
February Final: 32-20-3, + 9.69 Units
January Final: 26-28-1, - 4 Units
December Final: 19-23, - 5.51 Units
November Final: 24-25-1, - 2.92 Units
October Final: 8-9, - 1.72 Units
Season 2017: 109-105-5, + 1.05 Units
Final Season 2016: 150-143-7, - 5.37 Units
This is the time of the season when motivation is high throughout the Association, both in a positive and negative manner. There are some teams that might move into 'tank' mode over the course of the month to improve their lottery positions for the Draft, while the top teams are looking for the positive momentum that will get them ready for the Play Offs which begin in six weeks time.
I will have the first week of the March NBA Picks in this thread and look for a good start to the month after a really strong February.
Wednesday 1st March
New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic Pick: It has been another hard season to live through as a New York Knicks fan and there are signs that the franchise is looking to become one of the teams fighting for a decent position in the lottery. Releasing Brandon Jennings indicated that and there were reports that Derrick Rose would be the next Guard to be released, although the Knicks won't hear anything about 'tanking' just yet.
They are still 'only' 5 games out of the Eastern Conference Play Off picture, but the Knicks suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Toronto Raptors last time out. It was one where Carmelo Anthony displayed his frustration having missed an open look to win the game, while rumours about his future continue to dominate the headlines despite the trade deadline coming to a close this season.
Kristaps Porzingis is expected back for the Knicks in this game and this is going to tell us all we need to know about what New York are expecting the rest of the season. They are facing an Orlando Magic team who are one of three teams below them in the Eastern Conference standings although the Magic are well rested having not played since Saturday.
However Orlando have been a terrible favourite to back and are just 2-9 against the spread when laying points this season. The Magic might have blown out the Atlanta Hawks in their last game here, but the Knicks do look like they match up with them pretty well at both ends of the court and I do think they can win this game if they are focused on a strong end to the season.
New York are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine visits to Orlando and I will take the points on offer in this one knowing the last two Knicks games have been decided by a single point each time.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat Pick: There has to be some excitement in the Philadelphia fanbase that their 76ers are on the right road with all of the experiences of this season likely to make them better next time around. The 76ers have started giving their younger players more minutes with some trades made before the deadline and they have responded with some competitive performances, although finding wins is still just beyond their grasp.
They showed plenty of heart in their last game, which was a defeat to the Golden State Warriors, and it does feel like this Philadelphia 76ers roster are not going to give up easily in any game they play. Joel Embiid might still be out, but his enthusiasm has filtered through the roster and produced some big performances from the rest of the players.
It will be a difficult game on South Beach as Philadelphia travel to face the incredibly hot Miami Heat who are just 2 games out of the top eight in the Eastern Conference. The Heat will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss to the Dallas Mavericks last time out, and they will have revenge on their mind having seen their long winning run snapped by the 76ers before the All-Star Break.
The Heat do look a little stronger at both ends of the court which should produce a win, but asking them to cover this number won't be easy. Miami have only been favoured by 7 or more points twice this season and they are 1-1 against the spread in that spot, but they are 8-1-1 against the spread in their last ten at home.
However I like the fact that Philadelphia have a 4-1-1 record against the spread in their last six visits to Miami and the way they have been competing of late. I will take the points on offer and look for the 76ers to keep this one relatively close.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz Pick: The Utah Jazz put in a huge effort on Tuesday but they came up short at the Oklahoma City Thunder and now face a young and hungry Minnesota Timberwolves team who are desperate to get into the Play Offs. The Timberwolves have made a few mental errors which has cost them some games, but they can't afford to allow the Utah Jazz to pull away in this one.
While the Jazz have been a little up and down Offensively, they are one of the tougher Defensive teams in the NBA and won't allow Minnesota to score the kind of points they have been used to. The fact that the Timberwolves have struggled as much as they have Defensively over the course of the season makes this a dangerous number for them, but I do think they can cover with the points being given to them.
The emotional and physical effort Utah put into the loss at Oklahoma City has to play a part here and the Jazz are now 1-6-1 against the spread in the second of back to back games. The Timberwolves can match them on the rebounding statistics which will give them every chance of staying with Utah and Minnesota have been shooting efficiently enough to give Utah something to think about.
The focus at the beginning of the game is all important for Minnesota as they can show Utah they are in for a battle on Wednesday and that can wear down the hosts. Minnesota are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven visits to Utah and I do think they are going to be prepared for this one as they try and close the 3 game gap between themselves and the Denver Nuggets in the Number 8 Seed.
I will take the points being given to the road underdog here too.
Houston Rockets @ LA Clippers Pick: The LA Clippers are finally getting healthier and they are still in a position to earn a home series in the First Round of the Play Offs. This is a chance for the Clippers to show they are going to be able to compete with the best teams in the Western Conference as they host the Houston Rockets who look like a team who will likely settle into the Number 3 Seed in the Conference.
Mike D'Antoni is still looking for his Houston Rockets team to show they are capable of going all the way to the NBA Championship. While the Rockets have played well this season, they are looking for the consistency against the top teams that will make them a genuine threat to knock off the likes of the Golden State Warriors, although it does have to be said they are 9-5 against the spread when playing on the road against a team with a winning record.
Houston do look like they match up well with the LA Clippers with their superior shooting, but the Rockets are very reliant on the three point shot working to get them going. If that shot is off, the Rockets can struggle and that was the case when going down to the Indiana Pacers a couple of nights ago. However there is a depth in the roster that makes them a threat against any team, although Houston need to show more Defensively.
The LA Clippers can expose some of those Defensive vulnerabilities, but they are still working the returning Chris Paul into the rotation and I think this game might come a little too soon for that.
Being well matches against the Clippers has seen the Rockets go 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games against each other. I will take the road underdog in another game on Wednesday as I look for the Rockets to perhaps earn the upset.
Thursday 2nd March
Golden State Warriors @ Chicago Bulls Pick: There is no doubting that the big news in the NBA a couple of days ago was the injury suffered by Kevin Durant and to what extent the damage to his knee had occurred. Fortunately for the Golden State Warriors it looks like their big off-season acquisition is going to be healthy enough to return by the Play Offs even if they have stated that Durant is out indefinitely.
The Golden State Warriors haven't really suffered too much adversity with injuries and the likes over the last couple of seasons when they have looked the best team in the NBA. However there is enough quality in the rotation to think the Warriors can overcome the absence of Durant at least the rest of the regular season and try and get him healthy for the Play Offs which are just six weeks away.
You have to imagine the rest of the players left will want to show that they are more than capable of playing without Durant and it can't be forgotten that the likes of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are still making up the starters. The Warriors can show that they are ready to go when they travel to the Chicago Bulls on Thursday, a team barely hanging on to a top eight spot in the Eastern Conference and looking to bounce back from a loss of their own.
Chicago were blown out by the Denver Nuggets in their last game here which snapped a four game winning run for the Bulls. That means they are also just 2.5 games clear of the teams chasing Play Off spots and I do think the Warriors are going to be too good at both ends of the court for them.
Golden State also have the size and energy to challenge Chicago on the boards, especially with Taj Gibson moved on to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Warriors have recovered from previous losses with a 4-1 record against the spread and I do think they will be motivated to show the rest of the NBA that it is a 'next man up' philosophy they hold now that Durant is out for the foreseeable future.
The Warriors are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five games with Chicago and I will look for them to cover this big number on the road.
Friday 3rd March
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: There are still plenty of noises coming out of the New York Knicks locker room when it comes to the Triangle Offense and whether the players are truly on board with that system. Derrick Rose, who will likely leave New York at the end of the season when entering Free Agency, was the latest player to voice his dissatisfaction with the system that took Phil Jackson to his numerous NBA titles, but the main focus is to keep the Knicks moving in a positive direction.
The bottom of the Eastern Conference is not very good in all honesty and the New York Knicks are only 5 games behind the Chicago Bulls who currently hold the Number 6 Seed. That has kept the likes of Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis to continue to tell the media that the Knicks are far from 'tanking' this season but actually believe they can make the Play Offs.
They can't afford to drop games like this if they are to do that as the Knicks get set to visit the Philadelphia 76ers who may have lost some belief with the news that Joel Embiid is out the rest of the season. While the rest of the players were producing big performances in anticipation of Embiid coming back, the news he was out led to a blow out loss at the Miami Heat last time out.
It looks like the 76ers might be lottery bound, but they did challenge the Knicks all the way last week when losing by a point in Madison Square Garden. I think there is every chance this game will be close, but the Knicks might just have a little more down the stretch and can pull away for a win by a wider margin than they had at home.
The Knicks should match up well with the 76ers on the court and a better rebounding day will make things a little easier and the return of Porzingis can help in that regard. New York are 11-4 against the spread in their last fifteen visits to Philadelphia and I will look for them to cover as the favourite here.
Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards Pick: Home and home series can be tough to get a read on because you have to think the team that lost the first of those games is going to be extra motivated in the next game. The zigzag theory which applies to the Play Offs seems to be at play here, but I think the Washington Wizards have the edge over the Toronto Raptors at the moment and I like them to frank their win in Canada by winning on Friday too.
That win on Friday actually snapped an eight game losing run to the Toronto Raptors, but this current Washington team is playing with the kind of confidence that is hard to build. Wins over the Golden State Warriors and the Raptors will have increased that confidence as Washington look to secure a top three finish in the Eastern Conference and perhaps even chase down the Boston Celtics for the Number 2 Seed.
The injury to Kyle Lowry is a huge blow for the Raptors and being without one of their star back court players is tough when faced with Bradley Beal and John Wall. There is only so much DeMar DeRozan can do and he will need help from some of the role players if the Raptors are going to reverse their home loss a couple of nights ago.
Washington have looked good though and they have also found increased production for the bench despite missing out on a move for Lou Williams prior to the trade deadline. The Raptors size will keep them in this game for a while, but Washington are big enough to earn their own rebounds which can see them pull away in this one.
The Wizards have been very strong at home and they have a stellar 16-6 record against the spread when favoured by less than 6 points so far this season. Toronto are just 3-8 against the spread in their last eleven against the Wizards, despite winning eight in a row straight up, and I will look for Washington to frank their win in Toronto by covering in a win here.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: Usually a loss in close fashion to the Boston Celtics would not raise a smile for fans of the Cleveland Cavaliers, but they have to like the way they performed despite a couple of key players like JR Smith and Kevin Love being missing. The Celtics had to give their absolute best to win the game and even then the Cleveland Cavaliers had a chance to win it at the end.
The arrival of Deron Williams and the impending arrival of Andrew Bogut has made LeBron James very happy and gives the Cavaliers the kind of depth he has been asking for all season. Now they feel they have the tools to defend the NBA Championship they won last June and a well oiled team is looking to cement their place of the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference.
Cleveland have a 3 game lead over the Boston Celtics at this time, but this is another tough road game for them at the Atlanta Hawks who have won two in a row and are looking to close the 1.5 game gap to the Toronto Raptors as one of the top four Seeds in the East. The Hawks had a really impressive win at the Boston Celtics on Sunday, but this is another big test for them to see where they actually stand in the Conference.
The superior three point shooting of the Cavaliers should play a part in this game and I am looking for them to bounce back from their loss last time out. The Atlanta Hawks are just 4-6 against the spread when given less than 4 points as the underdog this season, and they are just 4-9 against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record on the road.
Add in the fact that the Cavaliers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five visits to the Hawks and I think James and company can put a statement win in the books as well as covering this number on the road.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: The third road favourite I am backing on Friday night is the Memphis Grizzlies when they visit the Dallas Mavericks even though Memphis have a big game at the Houston Rockets to come on Saturday night. While some teams might be in a look ahead spot, I think the Grizzlies are motivated to try and finish as high as the Number 4 Seed in the Western Conference and losing games like this will prevent them from doing that.
There has been some inconsistency in the play from the Grizzlies over the last month, but they look to be in one of their peaks with back to back wins ahead of this one. They may also be catching the Dallas Mavericks at the right time with this team beginning to slip away from the Western Conference Play Off spots after losing four of their last six games.
Dallas will play tough with some veterans they have on the roster, but they have actively tried to get younger by allowing the likes of Deron Williams and Andrew Bogut be released from their contracts. Younger means inconsistent results and I do think Memphis have been more efficient at both ends of the court in recent games.
The Grizzlies should also have a size advantage which gives them the edge in the rebounding statistics while Memphis are 8-5 against the spread when favoured by less than 4 points this season and Dallas are 7-11 against the spread when given less than 4 points.
The favourite has also gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five games between these teams and I will look for Memphis to remain focused on the task at hand by concentrating on this game and winning and covering the spread.
MY PICKS: 01/03 New York Knicks + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
01/03 Philadelphia 76ers + 9 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
01/03 Minnesota Timberwolves + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
01/03 Houston Rockets + 2 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
02/03 Golden State Warriors - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
03/03 New York Knicks - 2 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
03/03 Washington Wizards - 5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
03/03 Cleveland Cavaliers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
03/03 Memphis Grizzlies - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
March 1-5 Update: 4-5, - 1.28 Units
February Final: 32-20-3, + 9.69 Units
January Final: 26-28-1, - 4 Units
December Final: 19-23, - 5.51 Units
November Final: 24-25-1, - 2.92 Units
October Final: 8-9, - 1.72 Units
Season 2017: 109-105-5, + 1.05 Units
Final Season 2016: 150-143-7, - 5.37 Units
Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units
Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units
Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units
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