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Showing posts with label January 26-28. Show all posts
Showing posts with label January 26-28. Show all posts

Tuesday, 26 January 2021

Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (January 26-28)

That honestly felt like one of the longest GameWeeks we have seen in Fantasy Football as it covered over a week of matches, but it has turned out to be a decent one and without having to use any of the Chips we have over the second half of the season.

The games keep coming in this congested season and the next four GameWeeks are going to be played over a two week period which means you have to be aware of rotations so having a deep bench is going to be imperative. More on this below, but first my thoughts about the ten Premier League games to be played between Tuesday and Thursday.


Crystal Palace v West Ham United Pick: In recent years the West Ham United fans have been far from convinced about the direction the club were moving in, but they will feel much happier with what they are seeing at the moment.

David Moyes is really getting the best from the squad and 5 wins in a row in 2021 is giving the team confidence as they progress up the Premier League standings and also in the FA Cup. The manager was able to rest some key players in the 4-0 Cup win over Doncaster Rovers this past weekend, but that took nothing away from what looks a stronger squad than the one he had last season.

There is still a hope that another striker can be brought into the London Stadium to ease the burden on Michail Antonio, but for now West Ham United will make the relatively short trip to Selhurst Park with plenty of belief behind them.

Defensively they have been very good and that has resulted in a single goal conceded in their last 5 games in all competitions. The numbers back up those successes and I think West Ham United can make life difficult for Crystal Palace.

However, Roy Hodgson has had a number of days to prepare for this fixture after his team were beaten in the FA Cup Third Round at Wolves earlier in the month. It should mean Wilfred Zaha is available having missed the 4-0 defeat at Manchester City, although Crystal Palace continue to be inconsistent in the final third.

They have not scored in their last 3 games in all competitions, but all of those fixtures came away from Selhurst Park. At home Crystal Palace have largely managed to find the net and that makes them dangerous even against the strong system West Ham United have been playing in.

Games between these teams have usually produced goals for both, and they did draw 1-1 at the London Stadium around six weeks ago. However it was not a game blessed with a lot of chances and I think the recent performances of the two teams suggest one of these sides will fail to find the net.

Crystal Palace are perhaps being under-rated as the home underdog, but my bigger feeling is that one of these teams will fail to find the net with two organised managers in charge. The last 7 between Crystal Palace and West Ham United have seen both teams score, but I am looking for that run to end here.


Newcastle United v Leeds United Pick: The next two weeks could be absolutely huge for Newcastle United and especially manager Steve Bruce with 3 of the next 4 Premier League games being played at St James' Park. The feeling is that Mike Ashley doesn't really want to have to sack Bruce, but Newcastle United have to arrest the slide towards the relegation zone and the fixture list is one from which they should be earning positive results.

First up is Leeds United who have lost their last 3 games in all competitions without scoring a goal, although Marcelo Bielsa has had a number of days to prepare his team for this fixture. That is an important development for Leeds United who have perhaps not played as poorly as the results suggest, while also giving the players the chance to just reset after the defeats.

This is a team that will continue to play the same way and that means Leeds United will be getting forward and looking to attack a vulnerable Newcastle United team. The Magpies have looked a mess at the back which has given teams some big chances to score goals against them, while they have been struggling for goals themselves that only increases the overall pressure on the team.

Steve Bruce is trying to find the right formula to change the feelings around the club, but Newcastle United do look vulnerable to a team like Leeds United.

The visitors have lost 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games, but those have come at Stamford Bridge, Old Trafford and the new White Hart Lane. This is a much more winnable game for Leeds United who have visited 3 clubs that are currently below them in the Premier League table and have won 2 of those.

Leeds United should have the goals to take this game away from Newcastle United and I think they can win here. I expect Newcastle United to have better successes going forward, if only because of the Leeds United style, but the visitors should be well prepared and I think Marcelo Bielsa will have his team ready to win here.


Southampton v Arsenal Pick: Anyone who watched the FA Cup Fourth Round tie between Southampton and Arsenal on Saturday will be expecting another tight and competitive game between the two teams.

Ralph Hasenhuttl went with a stronger looking team than Mikel Arteta and the Austrian was rewarded with a 1-0 win for Southampton.

That result means Southampton have kept 4 clean sheets in a row at St Mary's, although they are going to be missing what most would consider to be three of the first choice back four in this fixture. It will put pressure on the home team who have defended well and then punished teams with the quality that James Ward-Prowse, Stuart Armstrong, Danny Ings and Che Adams have been able to produce in the final third.

Southampton have not been creating a lot of chances though and those players have made the best of what they have been given. It is hard to sustain that over a length of time and now they face an Arsenal team who had kept 5 clean sheets in a row before the 1-0 defeat here over the weekend.

Mikel Arteta's team have looked to be playing with more confidence of late, but Arsenal are still not creating as many chances as the manager would like. That has made those clean sheets very valuable and Arsenal have managed to do that in their last 2 away games at West Brom and Brighton.

I am expecting another tight game between these teams who have shared out three goals across 180 minutes against one another in the last six weeks. Both teams will want to get forward, but they could be faced with tough defences that are playing with some confidence and limiting the amount of chances opponents have been able to create against them.

4 of the last 5 games between these clubs have ended with less than three goals shared out and I would not be surprised to see that being the case again on Tuesday. The injuries and suspensions in the Southampton backline have to be a concern, but the system should keep the home team strong and hard to break down, while Arsenal have been focusing on their defensive performances to the detriment of their attacking output of late.

One of the teams failing to score would not be a big surprise and I am expecting a low-scoring fixture to be played out.


West Brom v Manchester City Pick: With 19 Premier League games to play and with a 6 point gap to Brighton outside of the bottom three you do have to believe that every point will matter to West Brom if they are going to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.

The Baggies have appointed Sam Allardyce to aid them in their bid to avoid relegation and ten days ago West Brom won for the first time under the former England manager.

They have had time to prepare for this fixture having lost in the FA Cup Third Round, but Allardyce is a pragmatic manager and he will know which games West Brom need to target if they are going escape their current plight. He has made it clear that anything from this fixture would be a bonus, but West Brom face Fulham and Sheffield United over the next week and there is no doubt that The Baggies will be looking for results in those games.

It could mean Sam Allardyce is perhaps looking at this fixture as little more than a distraction in preparing for those games against fellow clubs inside the bottom three. Ultimately the manager has indicated that a win in this one will mean nothing if West Brom were not able to beat fellow relegation candidates and I think that could influence team selection.

Manchester City may be more vulnerable to an upset without Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero and last month West Brom rode their luck at times to earn a 1-1 draw at the Etihad Stadium. That will be encouraging, but West Brom didn't create a lot and I expect a defensive performance from the hosts which should help Manchester City move into a position to earn another clean sheet.

It should be noted that Manchester City are perhaps more vulnerable away from home having only kept a single clean sheet in their last 4 games on on their travels in all competitions. However two of those were Cup ties with changes made and Chelsea scored very late on having trailed 0-3 in the other game in that time.

West Brom have not scored in their last 3 home games and offered little threat against Aston Villa, Leeds United and Arsenal. I think they may not want to run their key players into the ground before the big games coming up and I think it will result in a comfortable Manchester City win on the day.

Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero are big absences, but Raheem Sterling, Bernardo Silva have been rested and Phil Foden is in fine form for the visitors. I expect they will have enough quality at both ends to earn the three points and likely with yet another clean sheet for the John Stones-Ruben Dias centre defence partnership to enjoy.


Burnley v Aston Villa Pick: This has the makings of an intriguing Premier League fixture and one that both Sean Dyche and Dean Smith will be confident that their team can produce the three points.

Burnley and Aston Villa have both been in positive form and I do think there is enough to like about the way the teams have been approaching fixtures to believe this could be a better game than some would think.

Aston Villa have been creating chances, but this is a team who have not defended as well as their overall numbers would suggest. It has especially been evident in recent away games, although Aston Villa will point out that those fixtures have come against some of the better teams in the Premier League.

Now while Burnley are not on the same level as Chelsea and the two Manchester clubs, they have been playing well enough in recent weeks to believe in themselves. Even in the 0-1 defeat to Manchester United, Burnley did create chances although they have been struggling to contain teams at the back too.

When these teams met last month it ended goalless, but Aston Villa created a host of very good chances in that fixture and I do think they will do the same here.

However I think Burnley are playing pretty well at home and they should be able to have some opportunities of their own. Both games in the Premier League between these clubs finished with at least three goals last season and I do believe an early goal could open this fixture up with both teams perhaps offering up more good scoring chances than their managers would really like.

Burnley home games have been low-scoring throughout the season, but Aston Villa can help open things up and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.


Chelsea v Wolves Pick: There was some surprise in the English media that Frank Lampard was sacked as manager of Chelsea, but this is a club that tolerates very little underachievement.

The reality is that Chelsea have spent a lot of money in the summer and they would have expected to be much closer to the top. Instead Chelsea have been left in 9th place and they are 5 points behind the top four in a season where the top of the Division has been wide open.

For whatever reason, you can't deny that Chelsea have been in miserable form for almost two months having looked like a genuine title contender. I am not sure if the players knew there were some who were uncertain about Lampard and decided to down tools, or whether confidence has just been shot to bits, but Chelsea have not been getting the results they would have wanted.

Thomas Tuchel is the latest man expected to take over at Stamford Bridge and he will know all the about the pressure that comes at clubs like this. He had been under that pressure in his last job at Paris Saint-Germain, but the German will be tasked to turn the form around and at least help Chelsea get back into the Champions League.

He won't be in charge on Wednesday, but Tuchel may pick the team and Chelsea have been playing better than some of the results have suggested. The Blues have creative players and they should be able to do that against Wolves who have been in miserable form themselves and don't look the same without Raul Jimenez leading the line.

Wolves did come from behind to beat Chelsea at Molineux last month, but they had lost 3 away Premier League games in a row before the 3-3 draw at Brighton. The chances that teams have been creating against Wolves is a real worry for Nuno Espirito Santo and I think we will see a big reaction from the Chelsea players on Wednesday afternoon.

There may be a sense of freedom or maybe they had lost faith in Frank Lampard and will be looking to show a new manager what they are capable of. Chelsea have been creating enough chances and playing well enough at Stamford Bridge to get the better of Wolves and I think they will be able to break down an out of form team in the victory.

The Blues were unfortunate to lose to Wolves when they met earlier this season, but I think they earn a measure of revenge here and begin the move back up the League table.


Brighton v Fulham Pick: Over the next two weeks there are some very big games between those clubs at the bottom of the Premier League table.

The teams in and around the bottom four are meeting one another regularly in that time and by the end of those two weeks we should have a good idea as to which of the clubs are able to avoid relegation.

Brighton have to find a way to win at the Amex Stadium having failed to do so in over six months in the Premier League, but they have won back to back games and that will be encouraging for Graham Potter. A win on Wednesday will really open the gap between Brighton and the bottom three and the side have played better than their overall results would suggest.

There will be a confidence in the home squad, but Fulham have to find a way to match that having lost 3 games in a row in all competitions. All 3 losses have come at home and Fulham were dumped out of the FA Cup on Sunday, but Scott Parker knows his team have an opportunity in front of them.

In the next few days Fulham visit Brighton and West Brom, the teams currently sandwiching them in 18th place, and wins in both would really inspire the players. However there is always the other side of the coin which says defeats in both games would leave Fulham struggling to find the belief to avoid the drop and so this is a very important week for the entire club.

Avoiding defeat would likely be acceptable in one game as long as Fulham can win the other game, but this is a team who have been struggling to find the balance at both ends of the field. While they have looked a bit better defensively, Fulham have not been creating a lot of chances and we may see a similar game as to when these clubs met at Craven Cottage which finished goalless.

Chances didn't come easy that day, although Brighton may feel a touch more fortunate to have come away with the draw. This time I expect Brighton to have the better of the play, but these are two teams who won't want to give a lot away and I think we will see a tight and competitive game produced.

It may result in one of the teams failing to find the net as they look to prevent giving too much encouragement to the other and this may be a relatively low-scoring fixture.


Everton v Leicester City Pick: Both Carlo Ancelotti and Brendan Rodgers have to be very satisfied with what they have seen from their Everton and Leicester City teams respectively as we approach the end of January.

Both clubs are still in the FA Cup and both are dreaming of a return to the Champions League which only increases the importance of this fixture.

While Everton have been a little inconsistent at home in recent weeks, Leicester City have won 5 in a row overall and 5 of their last 6 away games which will give them confidence. Even the absence of Jamie Vardy until next month has not been a major concern for Leicester City who feel there is a real depth at the club that makes them dangerous.

Last season's experiences should help Leicester City who have quality in the final third that will make life very difficult for Everton. I expect The Foxes to create chances here, although the last time Leicester City were beaten came in a fixture against Everton.

That win for Everton at the King Power Stadium last month was deserved and the first team look as healthy as they have since the beginning of the season. At that stage Carlo Ancelotti was getting plenty out of his players and I think they are going to be dangerous too in what looks to be a decent fixture on paper.

Goals have tended to flow when these teams have faced one another and I do think both Everton and Leicester City are playing well when looking to attack. At the same time there are one or two vulnerabilities in defensive areas which can be exposed by the other and 11 of the last 12 between these clubs at Goodison Park have ended with at least three goals shared out.

On current form I would think a 2-1 victory either way can't be ruled out and I do think this will be a fixture in which goals will be the outcome.


Manchester United v Sheffield United Pick: At the start of this latest round of Premier League fixtures this is one featuring top versus bottom, although Manchester United will likely be kicking off in 2nd place assuming Manchester City beat West Brom at The Hawthorns.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer won't be worrying about League position at kick off, but will be expecting Manchester United to focus on the task in hand which is making sure they don't drop any silly points. It has been the foundation of success for Manchester United who have won all of their League games played against the current bottom seven in the League standings.

Manchester United's win over Liverpool in the FA Cup Fourth Round will only add to the confidence of the players and this is a game they should win. They have won 5 of their last 6 at Old Trafford in all competitions and there has been an improvement in the performances both going forward and defensively.

It is certainly expected to be good enough to beat a Sheffield United team who have looked out of their depth in the Premier League this season. They haven't been as bad as only managing 5 points, but Sheffield United have once again struggled for goals and defensively they have certainly taken a step back from last season.

Teams have been able to not only get after Sheffield United, but Aaron Ramsdale has struggled to replicate the success Dean Henderson had which has left Chris Wilder's team in a vulnerable spot.

Sheffield United have looked a little stronger at home, but they have not created a lot in their most recent away games. The Blades have only scored a single goal in their last 5 away Premier League games and that lack of a cutting edge is likely going to be costly for them here.

It does have to be said that Manchester United have not really dealt in clean sheets as much as they would have liked, but they have produced 4 in their 9 home League games this season. Manchester United beat Sheffield United 3-0 at Old Trafford last season too and I think they are likely going to win this game fairly comfortably on the day and with a clean sheet to boot.


Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool Pick: The final game of this round of Premier League fixtures looks a very important one, especially when it comes to a potential title challenge for either Tottenham Hotspur or Liverpool.

Both managers will likely expect the two Manchester clubs to win their Premier League fixtures that are played on Tuesday and Wednesday and that will open up a considerable gap to these two teams.

With that in mind I would expect Jose Mourinho and Jurgen Klopp to understand the importance of the three points which will keep them in touch with those leading teams. Anything less than the win on Thursday will put pressure on Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool and that goes as far as the pressure building on a top four chase.

When they met at Anfield last month Liverpool scored a late goal to win the game, but Tottenham Hotspur really will feel they deserved a lot more than they got. Now the onus is on Tottenham Hotspur playing in their own Stadium, although I expect Jose Mourinho will be looking for the counter attack to expose a Liverpool team that have been struggling.

They may have lost at Old Trafford, but at least there were some signs that Liverpool's attacking football was rediscovering the lost rhythm of recent weeks. Liverpool have still not scored in 4 Premier League games, although they have created some chances and it is unlikely that the front three will continue to misfire.

The goal scored at Manchester United might turn things around, but Tottenham Hotspur will feel they can pick up where the current Premier League leaders left off and that is using their speed and counter attacking to hurt the Champions. Playing on Monday evening in the FA Cup Fourth Round was not ideal, but Tottenham Hotspur have played well in recent games and they are a difficult team to see off.

As the home underdog I do think Tottenham Hotspur are worth backing and especially when you look at how Liverpool have played away from home all season. The feeling is that Liverpool are a little more predictable with their attacking play and Tottenham Hotspur should be well prepared to deal with what is in front of them.

Spurs have played well enough to believe they can expose the defensive vulnerabilities of their visitors, and I think Tottenham Hotspur are worth backing to avoid defeat.

In recent seasons Liverpool have had the edge when these teams have faced each other, but they have been fortunate to win their last 2 games against Spurs. In those games Tottenham Hotspur have played well and deserved more than they got, and they have created enough chances in recent fixtures to believe they can perhaps edge out Liverpool.

The neutrals should enjoy this fixture and I think it will be a close game, but Liverpool look short considering their recent form and overall away record. It may not ebb and flow as much as the Cup tie at Old Trafford on Sunday, but Jose Mourinho should be able to employ the counter attacking approach he favours and that may be good enough to pick up a positive result.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace-West Ham United Both Teams to Score- NO
Leeds United
Southampton-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals
Manchester City Win to Nil
Burnley-Aston Villa Over 2.5 Goals
Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals
Brighton-Fulham Both Teams to Score- NO
Everton-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester United Win to Nil
Tottenham Hotspur + 0.25 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 20
Any time you pick up close to 100 points in a single GameWeek without using any chips has to be considered a very good return, but I still feel a little disappointed.

Kevin De Bruyne's injury one minute before the 60th minute mark meant I got a very low return from the Captain choice in the DGW, while I have to ask the entire midfield what fascination they had with picking up bookings.

Example? Hakim Ziyech has had one booking all season, but somehow managed to pick up a yellow card in both games played and earned just 2 points from his DGW, a terrible signing for that week.

Marcus Rashford had two games and earned 3 points, Tomas Soucek had two games and earned 4 points so those three midfielders really let me down. So with that in mind to pick up 93 positive points (with the four point hit included) is a better return than I may have imagined if you had given me those totals before a ball had been kicked.


It was not an ideal week with De Bruyne picking up an injury and Rashford looking like a doubt after scoring against Liverpool in the FA Cup, but having to leave with a knee injury. Instead of wanting to move through GW20 without making a transfer, I can't have two 'premium' assets potentially missing a number of games and it may need a third hit in consecutive weeks to shape the squad as I would like.

The injury to Marcus Rashford does not sound like a serious one, but I do think he will miss the fixture against Sheffield United and that is a big blow for my team. It is frustrating too, considering the moves made to have the squad in a good position heading into early February, but this is one of those seasons where the best made plans have fallen by the wayside and there really isn't much you can do about that.


Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has stated Marcus Rashford has been in training on Monday and Tuesday, and it is something that is perhaps going to prevent me taking the hit. I have a decent looking bench this week if he doesn't play, but there is always the worry that Rashford comes on for a cameo as he did at Fulham last week.

Kevin De Bruyne's absence is much clearer and replacing him is the major thought process I am working with ahead of GW20- the options are pretty clear for me as I look for the Manchester City replacements considering their three games coming up over the next week, although I have considered one or two other names.

Those have come from Leicester City (Harvey Barnes, James Maddison and Ayoze Perez look like good options, the last of those looks like being the main replacement for Jamie Vardy who will be back in February).

Another team with some good looking fixtures coming up is Everton and they are looking healthier than they have at any time over the last two months. James Rodriguez would be the main target and with three decent looking games to come, although for now I think I may wait to upgrade other positions with their assets.

There is also a feeling that Everton are going to have a couple of DGWs coming up very soon which will bolster my squad so that is something to keep in mind.

However my lean is with the Manchester City midfielders who have three good fixtures to come and with players in decent form. Bernardo Silva has thrived in the past when KDB has been missing games, while Phil Foden and Ilkay Gundogan are very strong options too which opens the door to upgrading assets in other positions.

The deadline is coming up at 4:30pm on Tuesday and I think it will be a decision I make as close to that time as possible, but my leans are fairly clear.

Friday, 26 January 2018

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (January 26-28)

It is back to FA Cup action this weekend as the Fourth Round is played and this comes just days before another very important round of Premier League fixtures.

With that in mind you have to be aware of what managers are saying around the Leagues to try and get a feel for the kind of teams they are going to play in the Fourth Round. At this stage it still feels far enough away to think about winning the Cup which means the priority remains with the League at a pivotal time of the season.


One player who could feature is Alexis Sanchez who has signed for Manchester United and is available for all competitions the side are still competing in. I have written a short piece about the new Number 7 at Old Trafford which can be read here.


On Friday the FA Cup Fourth Round fixtures are played and these ties take place over the next three days. Next Tuesday and Wednesday is another full round of Premier League fixtures before another weekend of League action at the beginning of February when the attention will soon turn to the resumption of the Champions League.


Yeovil Town v Manchester United Pick: The television cameras will rock up at Huish Park with the hope of seeing one of the biggest upsets in the history of the FA Cup but that does look a tall task for Yeovil Town.

Despite having home advantage, Yeovil Town are a team fighting at the wrong end of the League Two table and there is only so much adrenaline will be able to do for the players. I expect the crowd will try and make this a tough atmosphere for the Manchester United players and rile them into making mistakes, but enough of the Manchester United squad played here in 2015 and so will be familiar enough with what to expect.

The arrival of Alexis Sanchez is expected to give his new team-mates a huge boost in the second half of the season and the FA Cup has proven to be a competition that Jose Mourinho will take seriously. He played a strong team in the home win over Derby County in the Third Round and this will be a starting eleven with a lot of international experience taking to the field at Huish Park.

The same can be said in the League Cup ties Manchester United have played and they should be fairly comfortable in this one. The layers feel the same with the shortened prices on Manchester United to win this one with a clean sheet and asking the away side to cover a pretty big Asian Handicap.

Yeovil Town have played well at home in recent weeks which would make them think they can cause problems for their Premier League visitors.

However there is a real difference in quality between the two clubs and even the changes that Manchester United will make will have a very strong team take to the field. They should be a little better than in January 2015 when Manchester United won 0-2 here and I will back them to go one better and cover this Asian Handicap with Alexis Sanchez perhaps getting on the scoreboard for his new club.


Peterborough United v Leicester City Pick: In the last couple of years there have been a few occasions when a club from League One have upset a Premier League opponent in the FA Cup. Last season Millwall beat Leicester City as one of those upsets and Peterborough United will feel they have been scoring enough goals at home to give their Premier League opponents something to think about.

However I do think the situation is different for Leicester City this time around as they are not facing a relegation battle in the League which is prioritised over the FA Cup. This time Leicester City look like they could easily finish as best of the rest outside of the top six domestically and that means the owners, fans and manager all seem to be on the same page when it comes to wanting a long FA Cup run.

Claude Puel will know how difficult this tie could be having needed a Replay to beat Fleetwood Town in the Third Round. There isn't a lot between Fleetwood Town and Peterborough United so this is another difficult test for Leicester City, but I expect  a strong team to be picked in order to avoid the need for another Replay.

It won't be easy having seen Peterborough United win 1-3 at Villa Park in the Third Round and this is a team who have scored plenty of goals at home in recent games. They will challenge Leicester City, but I think the recent performances from The Foxes should be good enough to weather the storm and take control of the match.

If you consider the team Puel picked for the Third Round Replay at home against Fleetwood Town, I do think he will use the likes of Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy in this Fourth Round tie. The Leicester City defensive performances have been solid enough to think they can restrict Peterborough United to some extent and I would expect the Premier League quality to tell at the end of this one.

Leicester City may have drawn at Fleetwood Town, but I think they will play a stronger team than the one that started at Highbury Stadium in the Third Round. Peterborough United will need to be contained while the fans are loud, but if Leicester City can go in front I would expect them to be very dangerous on the counter attack and to win this game by a couple of goals on the day.


Huddersfield Town v Birmingham City Pick: Both Huddersfield Town and Birmingham City are more concerned with their respective relegation battles in the Premier League and Championship than they are in having a long FA Cup run. This competition can provide some momentum to take into the League, but both teams have important home games on Tuesday which could mean changed line ups in this Fourth Round tie.

David Wagner has already admitted as much in his last press conference as he is expected to give his fringe players an opportunity. Those players did help win 1-2 at Bolton Wanderers in the Third Round and having home advantage against another team struggling in the Championship should give The Terriers more of an edge.

However they have to respect a Birmingham City team who have been improving as they have started picking points in the League. The Blues have lost 1 of their last 5 games in all competitions and they have only lost 1 of their last 5 away games which suggests they can make an impact in this game.

The layers are not expecting too much goalmouth action, but I can see both sets of players trying to show that they are good enough to help these clubs in their League matches too. With the draw the last result either Huddersfield Town or Birmingham City want, I do think an attacking game will develop and I like the chances of both teams scoring at odds against.

That has happened in 4 of the last 6 Huddersfield Town home games, while it also happened when they visited Bolton Wanderers in the Third Round. Both teams have scored in 3 of the last 5 Birmingham City away games too and I will look for both teams to play their part in this one and will back both teams to score.


Millwall v Rochdale Pick: There is still some work to be done for Millwall if they want to avoid a return to League One after earning promotion last season, but they are definitely on the right path to doing that. It is a much better position they occupy compared with Rochdale who are in the bottom four of League One.

However I expect the Rochdale players to get up for this Cup tie with the Fifth Round of the FA Cup in front of them and the chance for a really, really big tie. They won at Doncaster Rovers in the Third Round despite having a poor away record all in all and that could make Rochdale dangerous if Millwall do not take them seriously.

I don't think that will be an issue for Millwall who were playing at the same level as Rochdale last season and played two difficult games against them. That will keep the players focused as Millwall look for another successful FA Cup run having reached the Quarter Final last season before being thumped at Tottenham Hotspur.

Millwall have beaten Barnsley 4-1 here in the FA Cup already this season which means they have won six home ties in the competition since the beginning of last season. The side have also beaten Stevenage Town in the League Cup at the New Den and I think Millwall are going to be too good for a Rochdale team who tend to concede far too many goals away from home.

I fully expect Millwall to take this tie seriously with the hope they can have another strong run in the FA Cup and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap in a win.


Notts County v Swansea City Pick: With the pressure that comes with trying to stay in the Premier League top flight, there is no doubt the FA Cup can be a distraction for clubs who are focusing on the League. A few of those Premier League clubs are already out of the FA Cup, but Carlos Carvalhal seems like someone who is taking the competition seriously enough.

He had every excuse to pick a weakened team for the Cup tie against Wolves in the Third Round, but Swansea City started recognisable players in both the initial tie and the Replay. Perhaps Carvalhal sees this competition as a chance to keep momentum going after positive results since taking over as manager of Swansea City.

They have won back to back games, but this is a tougher challenge away from the Liberty Stadium where Swansea City have struggled for wins. Swansea City are unbeaten in 3 away games in all competitions and led at Newcastle United before settling for a draw at St James' Park and there is a feeling they have the quality needed to win here.

Notts County will come in with confidence they can knock out a top flight club with home advantage the key. However they have not been in the best of form over the last couple of weeks and I do think it will be tough to bridge the difference in levels between the clubs.

Historically Notts County do have a strong home record against Swansea City, but the latter have really moved forwards as a club since these teams last met in the 2004/05 season. While this could be a close match with Notts County using the fans to produce a big performance, I do think Swansea City are in the better form and also looking like they want to keep things rolling in a positive direction with the teams picked in the FA Cup ties against Wolves.

Notts County have lost their last couple of home games in the League, which is also their priority, and I think that may have dented the belief of the players prior to this Fourth Round tie.

At close to odds against, I will back Swansea City to win here and move through to the Fifth Round of the Cup.


Sheffield United v Preston North End Pick: There is a real hope for both Sheffield United and Preston North End to at least challenge for a Play Off spot in the Championship. That is clearly going to be the priority for the two clubs, but I also have a feeling the FA Cup is important enough to give this Fourth Round tie a proper go.

A chance to get into the Fifth Round and the potential for a huge tie won't be lost on the fans or the players and I think both Sheffield United and Preston North End would love to progress.

I am anticipating team selections to highlight that and this could be a very good game this weekend.

It also could be a tight one with little between the clubs after Sheffield United have slipped back from the early season pace and Preston North End are much improved of late. The latter have proven to be very tough to beat and I think they can at least force a Replay back at Deepdale in this tie.

Sheffield United have only won 1 of their last 6 games at Bramall Lane and their better results have come on their travels including a Third Round win at Ipswich Town. Hosting a team who have not lost any of their last 7 away games is a tough situation for the favourites and I think Preston North End are defensively sound enough to earn a result here.

They are close to odds against with a start on the Asian Handicap which will offer a payout as long as Preston North End do not lose this game. Both are back in League action on Tuesday which may take away some of the focus, but I think Preston North End can be backed here.


Southampton v Watford Pick: Both Southampton and Watford's main concern is going to be to avoid relegation from the Premier League and the FA Cup is someway behind in terms of priority for the two clubs.

In saying that, both Mauricio Pellegrino and Javi Gracia will perhaps be looking at this Fourth Round tie as being able to give their players a confidence shot in the arm ahead of vital Premier League fixtures.

That also means there could be some changes made to the starting elevens although Watford have far fewer options than Southampton. With neither team wanting to add an additional game to the calendar with a draw, I can see both managers looking to play attacking teams in a bid to earn a place in the Fifth Round of the FA Cup without the need for a Replay.

Just a couple of weeks ago Watford and Southampton played out a 2-2 draw at Vicarage Road and games at St Mary's have seen both teams scoring regularly. The last 6 at St Mary's have seen both teams score and these two teams have seen 3 of their last 4 games end with both teams score too.

The 1-1 draw is a concern, but I think the ambitions of both managers to try and win the game the first time around will pay off and produce at least one more goal. Watford have lost their way in recent away games, but I think they can play a part here in a bid to impress their new manager and I will back the two teams to contribute to a high-scoring tie.


Newport County v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: One of the biggest challenges when making picks from the early Rounds of the FA Cup is trying to second guess managers and work out the kind of selections they will go with. I never thought Mauricio Pochettino would play as strong a line up as he did when Tottenham Hotspur beat Wimbledon 3-0 at home in the Third Round and a similar team would be good enough to take care of Newport County.

That is no disrespect to Newport County who have been playing well in League Two and who have won all of their FA Cup ties at Rodney Parade this season. That includes coming from a goal down to beat Leeds United in the Third Round, while this pitch regularly proves to be one of the toughest to play football on which may be a culture shock to Premier League players.

You have to also add in the fact that Tottenham Hotspur are about to enter a pivotal moment in their season with big games ahead. Following this FA Cup Fourth Round tie, Tottenham Hotspur play Manchester United (H), Liverpool (A), Arsenal (H), Juventus (A) and you have to think Pochettino will have those fixtures in mind.

Bringing in the likes of Toby Alderweireld, who is back from injury, Harry Winks, Victor Wanyama and Erik Lamela does give Pochettino the chance to rotate his starters and still have a strong team out there. Last season he was picking strong teams in the competition even when facing the likes of Fulham and Millwall in the FA Cup and I think that makes me lean towards a decent team being picked here despite the fixtures coming up.

Pochettino won't want to see Tottenham Hotspur upset here and he won't want a Replay, while also knowing there are a few days before Manchester United are the visitors to Wembley Stadium. I would expect the starters to get the better of Newport County and I can see Tottenham Hotspur wearing down this opponent over the course of ninety minutes as their superior quality shines through.

Newport County have played well at home and that confidence could see them rattle a few cages in this one. However finding the quality to beat a Premier League club may be beyond a team who have been overachieving at the League Two level.

Over the last couple of years Tottenham Hotspur have beaten Gillingham, Fulham, Millwall and Wimbledon by three or more goals in domestic Cup competitions. Granted three of those games were at home, but they should be good enough to get away from Newport County in this one and I will back the Premier League club to cover the Asian Handicap with the belief that a push is the worst case scenario.


Liverpool v West Brom Pick: The 1-0 defeat at Swansea City summed up the way most feel about Liverpool and the lack of consistency this club seems to offer. One week they can hold their own against what looks to be the best team in England, and on another they are going down to a fairly straight-forward loss to the team at the bottom of the Premier League.

The lack of consistency has contributed to too many draws at Anfield in the Premier League this season and Jurgen Klopp will likely make changes to his starting eleven to freshen things up.

Klopp has already seen West Brom come to Anfield and escape with a 0-0 draw, although it was a very good performance from The Baggies who restricted what the home team offered that day. Alan Pardew has made sure he has organised West Brom to be hard to beat, but they have recently been turning a couple of draws into wins as they continue fighting against relegation in the Premier League.

Pardew didn't make a lot of changes to his starting eleven for the win at Exeter City in the Third Round of the FA Cup, but it is clear that the Premier League is the priority for the club. The Baggies have some tough games ahead and Pardew may decide to keep the key players rested in this one to make sure they are fresh and able to give their all in the League games coming up.

Either way I would expect West Brom to try and defend deep and make life very difficult for Liverpool in this one. The problem is that Liverpool will likely have a big reaction to the loss to Swansea City and being at home means there will be a lot of pressure on the visitors to keep Liverpool at bay.

They have shown they can do that once already, but it is tough to do it twice and especially so if a few changes are made. I think Liverpool will make changes too considering they are back in League action on Tuesday evening at Huddersfield Town, but I am expecting a stronger home team than the one the visitors will bring to this FA Cup Fourth Round tie.

Liverpool have been much stronger defensively at home too and I think they can win this one with a clean sheet. They have hosted 5 teams who are currently in the bottom half of the table of the Premier League and kept clean sheets in 4 of those games and Liverpool can do that here.

One goal may be enough to see Liverpool through and I will back them to win with a clean sheet as they move into the Fifth Round.


Chelsea v Newcastle United Pick: There is a real sense of disappointment around Chelsea after failing to make it to the League Cup Final, but Antonio Conte has to try and rally his players. The heavy January fixture list has taken a toll on some of the players who have shown a little fatigue at times, but they will be asked to carry the load again on Sunday.

I do feel that Chelsea have perhaps been a little unlucky at times too with both Arsenal goals coming in incredibly fortuitous circumstances. A double deflection off two Chelsea players saw the first one hit the net, while the second saw a cross deflect off the heel of Antonio Rudiger and landing squarely in Granit Xhaka's path.

They have had the chances to win a lot more games than they have been of late and I do think Chelsea will play well enough to win a fixture like this one.

I would expect a stronger looking line up for Chelsea than for Newcastle United who have relegation worries to consider when Rafa Benitez picks his side for this one. The Magpies have not been able to bring in the players they feel can help them avoid the drop back into the Championship and the fans continue to be frustrated with the Mike Ashley direction of the club.

Newcastle United have found it difficult to challenge the very best teams in England when they have played away from home at those grounds this season. Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City have all beaten Newcastle United at home and I can see Chelsea managing to do the same again this weekend against what is likely to be a visiting team with a number of changes made.

Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City have all beaten Newcastle United by at least a couple of goals margin and I think Chelsea will be able to do the same here. The home team could have Alvaro Morata back this weekend and could also bring in the likes of Thibaut Courtois, Gary Cahill and Danny Drinkwater to freshen things up.

The injury to Willian is a blow, but Eden Hazard is in form and I think Chelsea will be able to do enough to win this game. I can see Newcastle United being picked off as the game goes on and I will look for The Blues to cover the Asian Handicap.


Cardiff City v Manchester City Pick: There is going to be something of a culture clash on Sunday in the FA Cup Fourth Round as Neil Warnock sets up his Cardiff City team to take on Pep Guardiola's Manchester City. This is the kind of game that will have got Warnock pumped and his team selection in the FA Cup Third Round Replay at Mansfield Town suggests he is very much looking forward to it.

Cardiff City have turned their form around in the last couple of weeks after a really poor run dropped them off the pace at the top of the Championship.

They remain in a position to finish in one of the two automatic promotion spots in the Championship and the Cardiff City fans should make this a great atmosphere on Sunday.

It will be interesting to see how Manchester City line up for this fixture having played a stronger than expected team in the League Cup Semi Final Second Leg at Bristol City. A similar team would be too good for Cardiff City too with the control they are able to exert, but Manchester City are likely to have a few more changes in this one which will give Cardiff City a chance to spring a surprise.

That still looks a long shot though with the way Manchester City have been able to produce results throughout the season. A Fourth Round Replay will be the last thing Pep Guardiola will want, but it is clear he has targeted a sweep of all the trophies Manchester City are playing in and so I imagine the likes of Raheem Sterling, Leroy Sane, Bernardo Silva and Sergio Aguero could be asked to start the tie.

Those players should mean Manchester City are too strong here and I am going to look for them to produce a rare away Asian Handicap cover. They failed to do that on Tuesday in the win at Bristol City, and only 1 of their last 9 away games have ended with Manchester City by winning by more than a single goal margin.

I wouldn't be surprised if Cardiff City play their part in this one, but Manchester City will have the control to win fairly comfortably on the afternoon. A lack of Cardiff City goals in recent games would be a worry though and I will look for Manchester City to be a little more clinical with the chances that come their way on Sunday.

MY PICKS: Manchester United - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.78 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet365 (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Birmingham City Both Teams to Score @ 2.30 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Millwall - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.99 Bet365 (2 Units)
Swansea City @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)
Preston North End + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Southampton-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool Win to Nil @ 2.10 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.07 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)