Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (December 5-7)

There is still one more round of European Group Stage matches to be played, but the English Premier League clubs involved in either the Champions League or Europa League couldn't have asked for a better week.

Well I mean all but Manchester United sadly.

While Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool all earned the results they need to not only Qualify, but actually win their Champions League Groups, Manchester United had to suffer a really disappointing 1-3 home defeat to Paris Saint-Germain.

The performance wasn't terrible, but the result was and Manchester United will be under pressure on Tuesday when they visit Leipzig looking to earn at least a draw to progress to the Last 16 of the Champions League. A defeat would mean Manchester United are sent back into the Europa League and the pressure will build on the manager, but the situation is also a difficult one to deal with as Manchester United have some big Premier League games to come.

Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal and Leicester City have also progressed to the Knock Out Rounds of the Europa League and the managers of those six clubs will get a chance to utilise the squad in what is going to be a busy month of football for all of the English clubs.

Over the coming weeks Fantasy players will have to watch out for the increasingly strange deadline times for each GameWeek coming up, but more on that later.

Before I get to that you can read my thoughts on the Premier League games to come this weekend, although there are nine games scheduled and not the usual ten after the Aston Villa-Newcastle United game was postponed due to a Covid-19 outbreak in the latter's squad.

Burnley v Everton Pick: If anyone can tell me what Everton team are going to turn up from week to week I would have a better idea as to how this game is going to go.

Will it be the side who scored early and often against Fulham in a recent 2-3 win at Craven Cottage? Or will it be the Everton side that were largely outplayed and perhaps fortunate to lose 0-1 at home to Leeds United last weekend?

Carlo Ancelotti may not be entirely sure what to expect, while the injury to Lucas Digne is a blow to the Everton balance. I still think they will be dangerous going forward, but Everton have not been very good at the back and I do think Burnley may be under-rated here at the moment.

It has not been the start to the season that Sean Dyche would have wanted, but Burnley have perhaps deserved more than they have gotten, especially at Turf Moor.

The first goal feels so pivotal in this fixture with both Burnley and Everton perhaps lacking some confidence, but don't ask me who gets that!

Manchester City v Fulham Pick: Ever since Chelsea won the Premier League in the 2016/17 season, this has been a Division which has been dominated by two clubs.

Manchester City ran away with the title in 2018 and Liverpool managed to do the same last season, while both clubs won at least 30 games in the season between those Championship successes.

The 2020/21 Premier League is shaping up to be much more competitive and we have seen Manchester City sitting down in 11th place in the League table after nine games have been played. That is one fewer than the majority of the Division and Manchester City have picked up 15 points from a possible 27, a far cry from their performances in 2018 and 2019, but Pep Guardiola has to still believe his team are favourites to win the title along with Liverpool.

A convincing win over Burnley last week might be the spark Manchester City have been waiting for as they have regularly struggled to show a clinical side to their game despite chances being created. Sergio Aguero is still absent, but Manchester City look healthier and they should be able to take the game to Fulham who have been struggling at the back despite improved performances and results.

Manchester City have been pretty effective defensively and I do think their upcoming fixture list gives them a chance to close the gap on the leaders who look to be dealing with tougher games. At the moment all the home team can do is concentrate on themselves and Manchester City have shown they are playing well enough to punish Fulham if Scott Parker's team are not able to be a little more organised.

Fulham have been creating chances and they could be dangerous on the counter attack if Manchester City are overexposed, but I do think it will be tough to back up the win at Leicester City.

The West London club have not really been able to compete with the better teams they have faced at this level and Manchester City have beaten them 6 times in a row at home.

Like last weekend, an early goal would really set Manchester City on their way in this one and I think they are likely to produce a comfortable win on the day.

West Ham United v Manchester United Pick: You can question the tactics, the in-game management and whether the resume of the manager is good enough for a club of the stature of Manchester United, but it would be a little harsh on Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to completely ignore the performance against Paris Saint-Germain this past week.

The chances created early in the second half with the game balanced at 1-1 should have been taken by Manchester United and effectively they were punished by the French Champions.

The pressure is back on the manager who can't really afford another sub-par Premier League performance and then potentially exiting the Champions League in the Group Stage next week.

However it can't be ignored that Manchester United have saved some of their best performances away from Old Trafford and the next two fixtures are both going to be played on their travels. Manchester United have won 11 of their last 12 away games in all competitions and they showed their battling qualities in beating Southampton last weekend from 2-0 down.

That result means Manchester United have won 8 away Premier League games in a row going back to last season, although the one concern is that they have conceded first in each of the 4 played this season. There are only so many times you can expect a team to respond to those setbacks, but Manchester United have shown they don't know when they are beaten and that is a good character to have.

Playing at the London Stadium has not been easy for Manchester United and West Ham United have won their last 2 against them here. David Moyes would love to remind the Manchester United fans of his quality despite a poor time in charge at Old Trafford and his West Ham United team have won 3 in a row in the Premier League.

West Ham United have won their last 2 games at the London Stadium, although they have needed Fulham and Aston Villa to miss late penalties. A VAR intervention prevented an equaliser for Aston Villa last Monday too and the underlying stats suggest West Ham United are not defending as well as they would like.

Their visitors are certainly capable of exposing those defensive areas and I do think Manchester United have shown they can bounce back when the pressure is on them to earn a result. When you think factors are going against Manchester United it is the time they have found a big result under their current manager and I think that will be the case on Saturday afternoon.

The Hammers will be boosted by the return of 2000 fans, but I do think they have been riding their luck a touch on their 3 game winning run.

Manchester United have to make sure they don't concede first which has become the norm in the Premier League for them, especially away from home, but I do think they will create chances here. The results might not be very consistent, but recent performances have seen Manchester United create chances and I think they will 'surprise' by winning here.

Chelsea v Leeds United Pick: The final game on Saturday in the Premier League sees two clubs with serious history against one another facing off for the first time at Stamford Bridge in sixteen years.

Both Chelsea and Leeds United will be very happy with the way they have been playing in the 2020/21 season and I think this is going to be an attacking game.

Frank Lampard and Marcelo Bielsa have set their teams up to get on the front foot and I do think both Chelsea and Leeds United will be able to create chances.

Chelsea have been in very good form and they have a fully fit squad to choose from ahead of this fixture. Key players have been well rested during the week and I do think that will help Chelsea who won't expect Leeds United to sit back and defend in numbers.

I do think Leeds United will play the same way they have all season- they will look to break in numbers and that has seen Leeds United put teams under pressure at home and away. The best results have come on their travels, but Leeds United's style has also led to conceding four goals to Liverpool and Crystal Palace and this Chelsea team are certainly playing well enough to get on top of them here.

As well as Leeds United have played going forward, it has left them vulnerable defensively and teams have been able to create chances against. Liverpool and Palace scored four at home, but Leicester City managed to hit that many in a recent fixture at Elland Road and this is a Chelsea team with depth in the squad and with a serious amount of goals being scored of late.

It should be an enjoyable game of football for the neutrals, but I think Chelsea will be too good on the day and can win a high-scoring fixture. They have looked more likely of the two to keep a clean sheet and I think they can limit Leeds United while exposing some of the soft underbelly Marcelo Bielsa's team have had.

West Brom v Crystal Palace Pick: Two teams that have struggled to show any consistency in the final third meet in the early Sunday kick off in the Premier League and it is another one of those fixtures where you could make the case for all three results.

Both Slaven Bilic and Roy Hodgson are under some pressure to earn a result, but Crystal Palace will at least be boosted by a returning Wilfred Zaha this week. His presence gives the entire squad a lift and in recent years this is the kind of game Crystal Palace would win and make sure they steer clear of relegation concerns.

At the same time you have to feel West Brom will be given a shot in the arm thanks to their 1-0 win over Sheffield United last weekend. They should be encouraged by the result, but this is a team who needed some wastefulness from their visitors to secure the points and the fixture feels very similar to the Burnley-Everton one in the sense that the first goal is going to be massively important.

I do lean towards Crystal Palace getting a result, but they have underachieved in recent games and I simply can't trust them to do that. At the same time West Brom don't feel like a team who are going to be able to earn consistent results at the Premier League level and there look to be better options out there this weekend.

Sheffield United v Leicester City Pick: This is an important game at the top and bottom of the Premier League as two clubs in poor form look to find some momentum as we enter a very busy December.

Sheffield United have been in miserable form for months now and 12 losses in 13 Premier League games during which time a single point has been earned is simply not good enough. Chris Wilder has to be tearing his hair out about some of the chances his team are creating and missing, but the lack of goals has been a long-term problem for the side and very little suggests it is going to change.

They should be able to have some success getting forward against this Leicester City team who have been so inconsistent, but still sit in 4th place in the Premier League. That says more about the quality of the Division than it does about Leicester City who have been beaten at home by West Ham United, Aston Villa and Fulham this season.

The Foxes were beaten in the Ukraine on Thursday, but they have produced their most effective results away from home over the last two months. Defensively there are questions to be answered, but Leicester City do create chances and they have shown better composure in the final third compared with their hosts this weekend.

That composure could be the difference and Leicester City did score twice in both Premier League games against Sheffield United last season and picked up maximum points against them. Travelling to the Ukraine on Thursday is not ideal, but key players have been rested completely and I think Leicester City can snap their poor form out of the November international break.

It will be close and Sheffield United will surely see their luck turn soon, but it may have to wait a few more days. Leicester City can't always be trusted, but they should have the goals to win this fixture.

Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal Pick: Over the last few generations there have not been many times that Tottenham Hotspur would have gone into the North London derby in a higher position than Arsenal. In recent years it has become a more consistent sight though and Tottenham Hotspur are deservedly favourites to win.

2000 Tottenham Hotspur fans will be back in the Stadium for the first time since March and there is no doubting the boost it will give to the players. Even those who may not have appreciated the fans as much before the pandemic will know how important they are to the spectacle and I do think it will give this North London derby a good atmosphere.

Both teams made a huge number of changes to their Thursday night Europa League starting line ups and both have progressed to the Last 32.

It is Tottenham Hotspur who have shown a lot more consistency of late and 4 straight wins at home in all competitions will have given them further belief. Spurs are creating chances and scoring goals and I do think that is going to be very difficult for Arsenal to overcome.

Mikel Arteta's Arsenal have shown defensive improvements, but they are struggling to find the balance between attack and defence. Even the improvements have not been enough to produce a lot of games where they have deserved their clean sheets and a similar performance to the one at Elland Road will be costly for them here.

I do think Tottenham Hotspur will be able to find spaces to exploit in this game and I simply don't believe Arsenal have shown enough in the final third to believe they can keep up with their rivals. Tottenham Hotspur have scored at least twice in 6 home games in a row in all competitions and if they hit that mark I would expect it will be enough for the three points on Sunday.

The underlying stats are suggesting that Arsenal are simply not doing enough in the final third at the moment and I will look for Tottenham Hotspur to raise more questions about the suitability of Mikel Arteta to oversee an Arsenal rejuvenation project.

Liverpool v Wolves Pick: The final Premier League game on Sunday evening sees two teams missing some influential players facing one another as top seven clubs going into the weekend fixtures.

Both Liverpool and Wolves are just trying to navigate their way through a difficult period and both will be pretty pleased with their results in recent weeks.

Raul Jimenez could be a huge loss for Wolves having led the line so effectively for them over the last couple of years. The sickening injury he suffered would have hurt his team-mates, but Wolves showed they are willing to huddle together to earn results in their 1-2 win at Arsenal last weekend.

This is a tougher test, but Liverpool could be without four of their first choice back five and Wolves have to feel they won't have many better chances to end their run of League losses to this opponent. They were narrowly beaten in both League games last season and Wolves have to believe they will create chances here.

Liverpool have managed to just hold themselves together and earn some big results even through their injury crisis. There is no doubting their attacking threat, but I do wonder if they can keep picking up results with so many defensive problems to deal with.

Diogo Jota would love to get one over his former team and I do think Liverpool will be dangerous, but they are conceding a lot of chances of late. Ajax did enough to deserve more than a 1-0 defeat here during the week and prior to that Atalanta did win 0-2 at Anfield.

The home side have not lost in 64 Premier League games at Anfield though and they have 2000 fans to boost the team in this one. That should be a real help to Liverpool, but I do think Wolves are getting a big enough start on the Asian Handicap in what should be a close game.

Liverpool have won all 5 games at home in the Premier League, but only 2 of those wins have come by comfortable margins. At the same time Wolves are still well organised and they have pace and quality in the final third which should mean they can create chances here.

I would be surprised if the away team are blown away here and Wolves may even have enough to earn a point at the least.

Brighton v Southampton Pick: A south coast derby deserves to be witnessed by the fans in the stands and there will be 2000 back at the Amex Stadium for Monday Night Football as Brighton take on Southampton.

On paper this has all the makings of a decent game of football between two teams who are managed by managers that have an attacking philosophy.

We have seen plenty of evidence of that this season with both Brighton and Southampton creating chances, although the latter have been the more clinical and consistent of the two. Graham Potter and Ralph Hasenhuttl will actually be pleased with the balance they have largely shown too as they have not compromised themselves defensively while taking the opportunities to get forward.

Southampton have perhaps been a little looser at the back and have conceded at least three goals to Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Manchester United this season. However you can't ignore the fact that 14 of the 16 Premier League goals conceded this season have come in those four matches and they have been pretty good outside of that.

On the other side Brighton did concede 10 goals in their first four Premier League games, but have only given up a further 4 goals in their next six. Only one team have scored more than a single goal against Brighton in the last 6 Premier League games played and that came at Premier League leaders Tottenham Hotspur, while the last 3 at the Amex Stadium have all ended with two or fewer goals shared out.

An early goal could really change the entire complexion of the fixture, but I do think Brighton and Southampton will play out a competitive game and one that may not feature a lot of goals. Both teams can create chances, but both are also pretty decent at the back and that should be the case again on Monday night.

These teams have met 7 times since August 2017 when Brighton returned to the top flight of English Football and 6 of those games have finished with two or fewer goals shared out. Brighton have not scored in their last 3 at the Amex Stadium against Southampton, but The Saints have only scored more than a single goal in 2 of their 7 games against Brighton.

A 2-1 scoreline wouldn't be the biggest surprise either way, but I do think there this will be a competitive fixture where both defences are largely on top. Goals may not be as likely as some of the layers think and I would not be surprised by any of the low-scoring options in this fixture.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap

Manchester United - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Chelsea - 1 Asian Handicap

Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Tottenham Hotspur - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Wolves + 1.25 Asian Handicap

Brighton-Southampton Under 2.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 11

I had some questions about my Fantasy Football line up for GW10 moments after posting the team on Twitter, but I can't blame people for doing that.

I mean not many would have picked Tomas Soucek, Ollie Watkins and Che Adams to start the week and leave Harry Kane on the bench, but my feeling was that Tottenham Hotspur were not going to score as many goals as the teams that the other three players were performing for.

Effectively my theory was right- Tottenham Hotspur didn't score, while Southampton, West Ham United and Aston Villa all got at least one and combined for five goals.

Sadly that didn't mean anything when it came to the totals as Watkins missed a Penalty and then had a goal chalked off for offside, while Adams and Soucek failed to be involved in the two goals that both of their teams managed to score.

Even the Kane subbing meant nothing as Pep Guardiola continues to use his tombola frustrate FPL players having left Raheem Sterling on the bench- at least he didn't bring him on for five minutes and offer my Captain a single point, but the 57 points earned in GW10 did nothing to appease me or the feeling that I have left some points out there.

I was actually looking forward to GW11- I had a solid eleven players starting and two players on the bench ready to come on if needed.

However I didn't account for Covid-19 causing havoc for my team and the Premier League, but that is the case after the Aston Villa-Newcastle United game was postponed. Three players are out this week and that includes my goalkeeper which means any hope of carrying a transfer over is not going to be possible.

More frustrating is that my bench no longer offers protection for players that may not start and there are some flags surrounding Sergio Reguilon, Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane.

I would be surprised if Kane didn't play in the North London derby and I certainly don't think he will be a substitute- he will either start or not play at all and he looks to be the best Captain choice this week if my predictions above are anything to go by.

I really feel Liverpool may struggle against Wolves, but Mohamed Salah is due a goal and he is the only other player I have considered for the Captaincy option.

It would have been Sterling if not for Guardiola raising doubts about whether he will start despite being questioned about the England international's absence last weekend in the 5-0 win over Burnley. The home game against Fulham would make a Manchester City asset an easy Captain choice, but I made the choice to pick Sterling as a difference maker over Kevin De Bruyne and so I have to go with either Harry Kane or Mohamed Salah.

As of writing it looks to be Kane leading the way for me against an Arsenal team he has enjoyed scoring against in the past.

And what of the transfer? I have been forced into the goalkeeper change knowing the backup I have is not going to play and that means removing Emiliano Martinez this week.

I am going with Alex McCarthy at Southampton who has been in good form and his team have defended pretty well, while fixtures against Brighton, Sheffield United, Arsenal, Manchester City, Fulham and West Ham United should mean I don't have to make another change at that position until the New Year (barring any more unexpected postponements, injury or suspension).

I did think about Matt Ryan for Brighton, but the gut feeling led me to McCarthy despite the similar looking fixture list. The main reason is I think Southampton are more likely to earn the clean sheet on Monday night against Brighton than the other way around, although those could be famous last words.

You can see the team I have gone with in GW11 on Twitter just after the deadline on Saturday morning. Barring any late changes of mind, Harry Kane looks to be the man with the armband this week and I will be keeping my fingers crossed that I have eleven starters as I look to improve on the 57 points scored last weekend.

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (December 5-7)

This is the time of the season when games come thick and fast and most of the top teams in the Premier League have to accept they will be playing twice a week through to the beginning of January.

If you want to be successful you have to find a way to negotiate these fixtures and keep the wins coming and so it is important for the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham Hotspur to have confirmed their spots in the Knock Out Rounds of their European competitions.

Ok, United are not officially in the Last 16 draw, but barring something completely random happening on Tuesday, they should be through as Group Winners and Jose Mourinho has a chance to give some key players a rest after playing three Premier League games in an eight day period.

Those other clubs I have mentioned also have that opportunity, but Liverpool are the exception as they will be out of the Champions League if they were to lose on Wednesday and Sevilla beat Maribor. That means Jurgen Klopp has to take things very seriously, although Liverpool aren't due to play again until Sunday so there is time for him to prepare his side for the Merseyside derby after this Champions League Match Day 6 round of games are concluded.


You have to be careful with the final set of Group games as teams are likely to make changes with their futures in the competitions secured. You will begin to see some of the layers producing short odds on teams who 'must win' and you have to work out the value as much as possible on the prices that have been set and also keep a keen eye on the team news that comes out.


Bayern Munich v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: Winning the Group would have been the aim for both Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain at the start of the Champions League, but that looks to be decided thanks to PSG beating Bayern Munich 3-0 in the French capital earlier in the section.

Paris Saint-Germain have continued hammering the other teams in the Group which means Bayern Munich have to win by at least a four goal margin if they are going to finish above their visitors. That looks a tall task even if you think of how Paris Saint-Germain were beaten 6-1 at Barcelona in the Second Round of this competition last season, especially as PSG are a much better team this time around.

It was also a day when everything seemed to conspire against them and the talk from the Bayern Munich camp sounds like they are already accepting a Group win is not likely. Even the talk of 'revenge' for the manner of the loss in Paris has been played down, but I do think Bayern Munich will want to prove they are still amongst the favourites to win the Champions League.

That means winning at home on Match Day 6 against another team considered amongst the best in Europe and I do think Bayern Munich can do that. The form has been improving and the injuries are beginning to clear up, while Paris Saint-Germain have not looked happy for a team who have been unbeaten in 21 games in all competitions before the 2-1 loss in Strasbourg.

Bayern Munich have won 17 of their last 19 home Champions League games and Paris Saint-Germain have had some issues on their travels in recent years. Being able to back the home team on the Asian Handicap which is essentially a 'Draw No Bet' market looks a decent option here and I like Bayern Munich here.


Celtic v Anderlecht Pick: Both Celtic and Anderlecht are likely going to try and get on the front foot in this one and try and win the game and I do think there is a potential for an entertaining game at Celtic Park on Match Day 6.

Celtic have been strong domestically and they have given teams problems when they have arrived in Glasgow especially when they are on the level of Anderlecht. The 0-3 win in Brussels means Celtic hold the cards here, but Anderlecht have to be respected having won 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions.

The problem for Anderlecht is they have to take risks at some point to get back into contention for a Europa League spot. Anything less than a win by at least a three goal margin is not going to be enough and I think that may play into the hands of Celtic who can exploit gaps on the counter attack.

Brendan Rodgers will stick to his principles and look to play attacking football too and these teams could mesh for a high-scoring game which the layers are taking no chances with. However I think the situation also means Celtic could find a way to win this fixture when Anderlecht get a little ragged trying to chase the goals they need.

That could see Celtic ultimately produce another win against Anderlecht and I will back them to do that. I will keep the stakes to a minimum knowing Celtic can afford a draw and a narrow defeat to go through too, but I will look for the Scottish Champions to win a game in which at least three goals are scored.


Manchester United v CSKA Moscow Pick: Some in the media clearly don't understand maths very well when talking about the problems Manchester United had after losing 1-0 at Basel, but the Champions League Group has been well in hand since winning the opening 4 games in this section.

It would be a huge turn of events to prevent Manchester United from winning the Group let along being knocked out of the Champions League and I don't think the players are feeling that much pressure. Even Jose Mourinho is looking to freshen up the starting eleven knowing a narrow loss would be ok for Manchester United to win the Group and get ready for the Champions League Last 16 draw next week.

With the way Manchester United have been playing, there is enough momentum to help them win this game on Tuesday and keep things on a positive track ahead of the Manchester derby on Sunday. I expect a strong team to still take to the field and it is a big task for CSKA Moscow to make it 5 straight away Champions League wins.

Prior to this season they had not been the best travellers in this competition and CSKA Moscow are under more pressure to get forward and secure a result. They will likely need to win at Old Trafford to have a chance of going through to the Last 16, but that may also lead to spaces opening up as they chase the game.

Manchester United have been very strong at Old Trafford as they put their 39 game unbeaten run on the line and they have won 11 in a row here in all competitions. With 7 wins in 9 European home games I fancy Manchester United will earn the victory in this one too and I can see a counter attacking goal putting this to bed later in the contest.

That could help Manchester United cover the Asian Handicap in this one and I will back them to do so.


Liverpool v Spartak Moscow Pick: There is some pressure on Liverpool to make sure they win the Group or likely guarantee a really difficult Last 16 tie in the Champions League. However they can't be too desperate as a defeat would likely see them knocked out of the competition and entering the Europa League.

Jurgen Klopp only really has one way he wants to see his side play football so I would expect Liverpool to get forward and try and take the game away from Spartak Moscow in the first half hour at Anfield. At some point Spartak Moscow will have to chase this game too knowing they need a win to get through to the Last 16 themselves and I think it will play into the Liverpool hands.

This is a side who have played better at home when it comes to defensive schemes and most Liverpool fans would expect to have a much better day in the final third than when these teams met in Russia. On that day Liverpool could have won easily but missed a host of chances in the 1-1 draw, but they look a little stronger all around now and I don't think those opportunities go begging in the same way.

Spartak Moscow have also been playing better, but they have yet to really turn it on in the Champions League outside of the 5-1 home win over Sevilla. Draws in both games against Maribor have hurt Spartak Moscow and they will have to be a lot better to deal with Liverpool at Anfield.

All in all it feels like a game that Liverpool will dominate early and then pick Spartak Moscow off as the Russian side are forced to come forward. I expect that will lead to a fairly comfortable Liverpool win on the night and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Shakhtar Donetsk v Manchester City Pick: You do have to take Pep Guardiola's comments seriously about wanting to play a strong team that can win the game in this final Champions League Group game, but it would be a big surprise if changes aren't made to keep the starting eleven fresh. There is a big game coming up on Sunday in the Premier League and Manchester City have already Qualified for the Last 16 so failing to make changes would be a real surprise.

Even with that in mind, Manchester City have enough quality to cause problems for Shakhtar Donetsk who are under more pressure knowing a win leaves them vulnerable to Napoli in 3rd place. They have performed much better at 'home' in recent European games than on their travels which will give Shakhtar Donetsk confidence of securing a result, but they will have to be aware of this Manchester City team.

Recent form has not been the best but Manchester City keep finding ways to win games and the players coming in will want to show the manager they are capable of being used in big Premier League games too.

On the other hand I would expect Shakhtar Donetsk to cause problems too like they did at the Etihad Stadium earlier in the Group. Stronger performances at home will give them confidence and I can see an attacking game develop with both sides more comfortable trying to score goals.

The 1-1 result is the one that scares me as both teams could settle for that with it being enough for Shakhtar Donetsk to go through and Manchester City will want to keep some energy in check for the big game at Old Trafford on Sunday. An early goal may change the mindset though and force the two teams to play with more attacking intent than you may think in this situation and I do think the teams can combine for at least three goals in this one.

It's a decent price when you think how Manchester City games have developed of late, but some may want a small interest in the 1-1 correct scoreline as a saver.


Slavia Prague v Astana Pick: The final round of Europa League and Champions League games can be tough to call with managers preparing their players for busy times of the season.

In this one both Slavia Prague and Astana have everything to play for with the winner through to the Last 32 while the home team have the benefit of keeping the draw on their side. I do think Slavia Prague can produce the goods to work their way out of the Group, but my concern is that they don't need to win the game.

Both wins they have earned have come against Maccabi Tel-Aviv who have struggled in the Group, but Astana have not been the best travellers in European competition which should make the difference here.

With that in mind the home team have to be worth having a small interest in as they can perhaps catch Astana chasing the game in the second half. Slavia Prague have a decent recent record and I think they can find some spaces to exploit as their visitors commit more men forward to try and get through to the next Round themselves.


Villarreal v Maccabi Tel-Aviv Pick: This Group is already decided as far as Villarreal and Maccabi Tel-Aviv are concerned and there are likely to be some changes in the home starting eleven with Barcelona to come in three days time.

That should mean there are a few issues for Villarreal to negotiate as they are perhaps trying to work out the chemistry to put themselves in a position to win this game. They could be helped by the struggles Maccabi Tel-Aviv have been having in the Group and I do think Villarreal are going to be able to secure yet another win in the section.

Villarreal have been a mixed bag in their recent home Europa League games, but I think they can show they are the superior team and they could be worth a small interest to win by a couple of goals on the day.

It is odds against for that to happen, but Villarreal will have seen the way Maccabi Tel-Aviv have struggled away from home in this Group. Both losses have come by at least a two goal margin and I will look for Villarreal to do enough to become the latest to beat Maccabi Tel-Aviv by that margin.


Marseille v Salzburg Pick: There is more on the line for Marseille than Salzburg on Match Day 6 so you have to expect the team line up to indicate that as the home team look for the point which will send through to the Last 32. Both teams have big domestic action to look forward to on Sunday, but Marseille are at home compared with Salzburg who are travelling and that can play a part in the selections of the two managers too.

It won't be an easy game for Marseille who are facing a Salzburg team who have yet to lose in the Group, but Marseille have been much better at home.

I am looking for Marseille to just use the extra motivation in this fixture to lead them to a win and I think they can be backed for a small interest to beat Salzburg by a couple of goals on the night. Salzburg have already won the Group and they are in a real battle for top spot in Austria, while Marseille are hosting Saint-Etienne in a few days time which should mean they can put in the big effort in this Europa League game as well as the home game in the French League on Sunday.

Marseille have won 5 of their last 6 home games in all competitions and I will back them to win and cover the Asian Handicap on Thursday.


Real Sociedad v Zenit St Petersburg Pick: Neither Real Sociedad or Zenit St Petersburg can point to any significant form in recent weeks with the majority of Zenit's better performances coming at home while Real Sociedad have struggled in general.

There is plenty on the line for both clubs on Thursday with top spot up for grabs and I think Real Sociedad can use home advantage to earn that.

As poor as the recent results have been, Real Sociedad are a side that have scored plenty of goals and I am not sure Zenit St Petersburg can exploit their defensive issues.

I wouldn't invest a lot in this with both teams through and perhaps more interested in their League form rather than putting too much into this fixture. However I do think finishing with a Seed for the Last 32 draw is hard to ignore and I believe Real Sociedad can get the better of a Zenit St Petersburg side who have just hit the wall on their travels in recent weeks.

At odds against it has to be worth a small interest in backing Real Sociedad to win.


Zorya v Athletic Bilbao Pick: There are a few fixtures around the Europa League where the two teams competing with one another are in direct conflict for a place in the Last 32. This is one of those with Zorya capable of finishing above Athletic Bilbao with a victory, while the Spanish club just need a result to ensure they are playing European Football after Christmas.

There is much on the line, but Athletic Bilbao look very short when you think of how they have performed in recent weeks. They are also not a side that can be backed with a lot of confidence on their travels in the Europa League having won 1 of their last 8 away games and even that came after trailing 2-0.

Zorya have not exactly been lighting things up themselves though and I think Athletic Bilbao should be able to show they are the superior team. It was Zorya who won 0-1 in Bilbao, but that should only focus the Athletic Bilbao players who know a draw would be good enough to go through.

I have to say Athletic Bilbao look plenty short when you think of the recent form and lack of wins away from home. This can't be a confident side, but I think they will have enough to earn the point they need and backing the draw for a small interest looks the way to go.

The situation is a concern because Zorya will need to chase the game if they are behind or level with time ticking down and that could leave Athletic Bilbao with spaces to exploit. However I am not sure the Basque club are in a position to really take advantage or playing with the confidence to exploit any defensive lapses, and I will take a small interest in the draw.

MY PICKS: Bayern Munich 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Celtic & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.60 Coral (1 Unit)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.11 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Slavia Prague @ 1.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Villarreal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Marseille - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Real Sociedad @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Zorya-Athletic Bilbao Draw @ 3.60 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Weekend Football Picks 2015 (December 5-7)

The start of a very busy December both domestically and in Europe with some big games coming up begins this weekend. I have a small piece with a few thoughts from last weekend's Premier League games which can be read here.

That covers a few thoughts about two strikers who have been struggling in Wayne Rooney and Diego Costa, while this could be a big weekend for Steve McClaren who is under immense pressure as manager of Newcastle United.


Southampton v Aston Villa Pick: I might have fancied Liverpool were going to be too good for Southampton in the Capital One Cup, but I couldn't predict the complete capitulation the home team would suffer despite going ahead inside the first minute. A 1-6 home defeat is a humbling experience and Ronald Koeman will be demanding Southampton end their recent 3 game losing run and bounce back immediately this week.

The Dutchman might not have been able to pick out a better fixture than facing bottom club Aston Villa at home, especially considering how poor the latter have been in recent weeks. Remi Garde's appointment has done nothing to stem the negative tide against Aston Villa and it is hard to see how this club will survive.

Conceding at least two goals away from home is a recipe for disaster and it hasn't worked out well for Aston Villa who have lost their last 7 away games. The 4-0 thumping at Everton last time out was not a flattering scoreline for the home team and Aston Villa look to be in big trouble.

They have to travel to the south coast believing the game Southampton played on Wednesday may have a sapped a few legs and give Aston Villa a chance. However, I can't help think of the goals the away team are conceding on their travels while it might be even more difficult for Aston Villa without the likes of Micah Richards and Ciaran Clark at the heart of the defence.

A late goal prevented Southampton beating Aston Villa by at least two goals when they met in the League Cup and I do think the home team have the edge. Confidence might not be high, but Aston Villa are a poor team and Southampton should have the talent in the final third to create chances and win this one fairly comfortably to end their 3 game losing run in all competitions.


Swansea City v Leicester City Pick: It has been a strange Premier League season at times and one of the stories that is hard to really get a read on is the sudden collapse of Swansea City. Some good performances haven't been rewarded with the results they deserved, but Swansea City have to be concerned by their slip down the League table.

In fact it might be suggested that Garry Monk will be removed as manager of the club if Swansea City were to be beaten by high-flying Leicester City and this is far from an easy game for the home team.

The counter attack that Leicester City have thrived upon is very effective away from home and that has shown in their unbeaten run on their travels. It has produced chances and goals and Leicester City have scored at least two goals in their last 5 away games in the League while they have won 3 of 4 games on their travels because they have managed to push a bit further and score another goal.

Leicester City have scored three times at West Brom and Newcastle United heading into this game and they will certainly feel they can do some damage against a team that has conceded at least two goals in 3 of their last 4 games at home.

This should be a game that does see chances at both ends with the way Leicester City have been playing. Claudio Ranieri is refusing to put the handbrake on his team and they have responded with plenty of goals and attacking verve which should see Leicester City create chances here.

However they have looked vulnerable at the back and you can't ignore the fact their clean sheet at Newcastle United was their first away from home this season. Prior to that Leicester City had conceded at least twice in 3 of their previous 4 away games and Swansea City have players that can score goals against them.

Either way it would be a surprise if there aren't goals in this one and backing at least three to be scored looks the way to get involved.


Watford v Norwich City Pick: At the start of the season, most would have tipped this up as a relegation six pointer, although Watford won't be taking their positive start as a reason to relax. It is a bigger game for Norwich City who could put a nice gap between them and the bottom three with a victory on Saturday, but they have not been in as strong form as the home team, although that won't intimidate them.

A similar set of players came here and helped Norwich City to a 0-3 win, part of two they had over Watford last season by the same scoreline. However it is Watford who have taken to the increase of level in the Premier League in better shape than Norwich City even if Alex Neil isn't convinced they have gotten the points they deserve.

It is actually quite difficult to pick a winner and this looks a game where both teams will understand the importance of the three points. This is still early enough in the season to think both Watford and Norwich City can play with the freedom that comes with looking for a win rather than later in the campaign where every point seems to count a lot more and tension can make managers believe they 'must not lose' rather than push on for a win.

Both teams will feel they can cause problems going forward but have looked a little suspect defensively at times.

The layers aren't expecting Watford and Norwich City to be able to provide the entertainment in terms of goals being scored, but this is a fixture that has regularly been able to do that including twice last season in the Championship.

With both managers likely going to push to earn a vital three points, I can see both teams scoring and there being a winner so backing at least three goals looks to have more legs than the layers believe.


West Brom v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: When you think of a Tony Pulis managed team, the tendency is to think of low-scoring games and a hard to beat side, but West Brom have actually been involved in some cracking games at home.

The pressure is certainly on Pulis to give his team more energy at home rather than on their travels when they can sit back and try and frustrate their hosts. While there have been a couple of low-scoring games here, one of those against Sunderland, 5 of 7 League games at The Hawthornes have seen at least three goals shared out and this is a fixture that has produced goals in the past.

3 of the last 4 games played between West Brom and Tottenham Hotspur here have seen at least three goals going in and I have a real belief this could be another.

West Brom have some pace and energy in the final third that can make them dangerous, but they have also struggled to defend efficiently at times. However they showed in the 2-1 win over Arsenal that the team have character and won't wilt and go away if they fall behind.

It has to be said that Tottenham Hotspur are not the inspired attacking team of a few years ago but are now much better at grinding out results. They won't leave massive spaces open by sending too many men forward, but Tottenham Hotspur will believe they are capable of winning here as Manchester City, Chelsea, Everton and Leicester City have and all of those teams scored at least three times.

I am not sure Tottenham Hotspur can reach that total themselves, but West Brom have shown they can give the top teams problems on their day with the win over Arsenal last time here. That saw all three goals scored in the first half of that game and I do think these two teams have a better chance of reaching three goals shared out than the layers may believe.


Chelsea v Bournemouth Pick: In normal years you would say a Chelsea home game against Bournemouth is the perfect game for the home to get ready for a vital Champions League game days later. While I still believe Chelsea will win this game, it is not as straight-forward in a season when The Blues have already had more losses than they would expect through the course of a season.

I am expecting Chelsea to be too strong having won 3 of their last 4 games at Stamford Bridge in all competitions and Bournemouth's pretty poor away record. The 1-0 win over Norwich City showed signs Chelsea were getting back to their best and I just have this feeling that someone is going to take a thumping from them here sooner rather than later.

There were enough chances in the Norwich game to win two different games and Chelsea should give Bournemouth plenty to think about. Eddie Howe won't go gung-ho here but he will give his players the chance to express themselves and that hasn't worked out for Bournemouth who don't defend as well as they need to at this level.

Bournemouth have conceded at least twice in their last 6 away games in the Premier League and I do think Chelsea have begun to find their feet with their defensive shape. John Terry could be back to strengthen them there and Bournemouth have yet to replace Callum Wilson as effectively as they would have liked.

I think there is enough of an edge here in favour of Chelsea to think they will win this by a couple of goals at least and I will back them to do that.


Everton v Crystal Palace Pick: This is the last game in the Premier League this weekend and I have a feeling the best could be saved for last as I am looking at both teams giving this a right good go.

Everton have been very impressive of late and entertaining the masses with goals going in regularly at both ends of the pitch. They have pace to burn and Ross Barkley and Romelu Lukaku are arguably the two most in form players in the Premier League in their current positions. Both have been scoring goals and creating goals, but Everton might still feel they should have had more points on the board.

The side might have won their last couple of games at Goodison Park, but Crystal Palace look the most dangerous of recent visitors. Everton beating Sunderland and Aston Villa should be easier games than Crystal Palace although the absence of Bakary Sako and Wilfried Zaha takes away a big threat.

Neither played here last season in Crystal Palace's 2-3 win here and this game does feel like it will produce goals. Everton have been scoring and conceding at a rapid rate, while Crystal Palace have shown what they can with wins at Chelsea and Liverpool already.

I think the way Everton are playing that this will be an open game and an early goal could really spark things into life. Backing at least three goals to be scored looks like the way to go in what looks a cracking match on paper.

MY PICKS: Southampton - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City-Swansea City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.90 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Watford-Norwich City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
West Brom-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Betfair Spotsbook (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

December Update: 2-2, + 2 Units (6 Units Staked, + 33.33% Yield)

November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)

October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 72-105-5, - 46.61 Units (342 Units Staked, - 13.63% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)