It has been a very good start to the tennis season for the picks, but I decided to take a few days off along with the ATP Tour, especially as the two WTA events are not exactly loaded with the top talent. With Indian Wells and Miami the two big events that will take over the rest of the month, it was no surprise that the top WTA players have decided to focus their efforts on those events, while the ATP scheduling leaves this as a week for the World Group in the Davis Cup to begin.
The Davis Cup proved to be a productive tournament for me last season having picked Switzerland to win the event at this stage of the competition, mainly thanks to both Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka making it clear they would be playing. Twelve months makes a huge difference though and neither player will be part of the defending Champions four player team this week and Switzerland won't have Federer for the rest of the year either which makes it difficult to see them winning 12/20 rubbers to take the title home for a second successive year.
Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic are the four members of the top 10 in the World Rankings that will be representing their nations this week as the latter two actually will meet one another in the Japan-Canada tie. Djokovic's presence for Serbia has made that nation the favourite to win the Davis Cup that they took home in 2010, and they do seem to have the back up in Victor Troicki and Doubles skills of Nenad Zimonjic to go very far in the tournament.
However, the Davis Cup ties have been placed in awkward spots to really rely on Djokovic's presence with the Quarter Finals played days after Wimbledon comes to an end and the Semi Finals are just days after the conclusion of the US Open. Novak Djokovic has made those trips in the past though and Serbia do seem to be in the weaker half of the draw and are right to be considered favourites.
I will have a small interest in them to win the event, especially if Djokovic is available through the rest of the year, but that uncertainty also means I want to limit my stake.
The other half of the World Group draw has a number of teams that could perhaps go all the way with France being considered the most likely. There is little doubt that the French team has the best depth, but they don't have a stand-out player that you would really believe could win two rubbers in every tie and that does leave them a little short in the market for me.
France have had a strong team for the last few years, but they haven't won the Davis Cup since 2001 and the draw could have been more straight-forward for them.
The most dangerous team for France in the top half of the draw could be the Australian one containing some youthful exuberance coupled with veteran experience. There have been a few people talking up Australia's chances to win their first Davis Cup title since 2003 and I have to agree with those suggestions when you look at the draw.
Facing a Czech Republic team missing Tomas Berdych and Radek Stepanek gives Australia a great chance to move into the Quarter Finals where they would be expected to be Italy, especially as the tie would be played at home. That could be the key to the Semi Final too as long as Great Britain don't manage to get through to that Round and the Australians will feel this is the chance to really give Lleyton Hewitt the perfect sending off with retirement looming in January 2016.
Hewitt is going to take over as Captain of the Davis Cup team after that point too so this is a chance for his current team-mates to really earn some favour with him too and Australia do look a big price to go all the way.
Any picks from the first day of the Davis Cup ties will be placed on this thread either on Thursday or Friday as long as there is some picks worth making once the layers put their markets up.
Andy Murray - 8.5 games v Donald Young: The Great British Davis Cup team stunned the United States in San Diego last year, but I am a little surprised that they have been set as the favourites to come through this tie. The Bryn Brothers have a definite edge over whatever Doubles team Great Britain pick, while I would say John Isner and Donald Young are both healthy favourites to beat James Ward.
That means Andy Murray winning his two Singles matches might not matter, but I do expect the British Number 1 to put some pressure on the Americans by taking the first rubber of the day. Donald Young has beaten Murray before, but he has lost eight sets in a row against him since that shocking win at Indian Wells in 2011.
The sets have been barely competitive in that time and I think Murray has been playing well enough to put together another fairly comfortable win. He should be inspired playing in front of his friends and family and returning to Scotland for the first time to play a competitive match as a Grand Slam Champion.
The indoor hard court conditions may make breaking serve a little more hazardous, but Murray should make Young play a lot of balls in this one and that might wear down his opponent as it did in San Diego. That match was on a clay court, but Murray also crushed Young at the US Open in 2011 and I can see him breaking down the Young game by extracting the mistakes and using a fired up crowd to a 64, 63, 62 win.
MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Serbia @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Australia @ 17.00 Boyle Sports (1 Unit E/W)
Davis Cup Day One Picks: Andy Murray - 8.5 Games @ 1.85 Sky Bet (2 Units)
February 23-March 1 Daily Picks Final: 15-7, + 13.98 Units (44 Units Staked, + 31.77% Yield)
Season 2015: + 42.17 Units (309 Units Staked, + 13.65% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Showing posts with label Davis Cup Outright. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Davis Cup Outright. Show all posts
Wednesday, 4 March 2015
Thursday, 30 January 2014
Davis Cup Tennis Picks 2014 (January 31st)
On a personal level, I had a pretty terrible first two weeks of the season, but the Australian Open proved to be a positive tournament despite two surprise winners in the shape of Na Li and Stanislas Wawrinka. The first of those was a threat that most would have suggested is in the tier below the Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka's in the tournament, but the Wawrinka success was the biggest surprise we have seen in a men's Grand Slam in over a decade.
The fact that Wawrinka beat the top two players in the World on the way to the title and has subsequently improved his own World Ranking to Number 3 means he deserves all the success he earned at Melbourne Park and the new Swiss Number 1 may also be a threat in tournaments through the rest of the year.
He proved his worth by pushing Novak Djokovic to five sets in two Slams last season, while he also has wins over Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray in the last twelve months which should have the belief flowing in the Wawrinka game.
Of course, Wawrinka was aided by the back injury suffered by Nadal in the warm up but I don't want to take anything away from the player who deserves his success after learning to control his emotions in the last eighteen months. He looks effective off both wings now and his serve seems to be getting better and there won't be too many players happy to see Wawrinka in their side of the draw as we move through the rest of the Tour.
The surprise loss for Serena Williams in the Fourth Round also highlighted again that the American should not be short odds to win these Grand Slam tournaments despite being the best player on the WTA Tour. Getting through seven matches without a dip in form is almost impossible, but Serena has shown susceptibility to the shock result and not being able to find the form or belief to come through when she is not at her best.
I appreciate winning two out of four Grand Slam events, as Williams did last season, is an impressive feat and I do think she is rightly the favourite to win, but odds on quotes should not be justified as she has lost to the likes of Virginie Razzano, Sloane Stephens, Sabine Lisicki and Ana Ivanovic in Grand Slam tournaments over the last couple of years.
And even winning two out of four is seemingly not enough for Serena to be seen as a successful season else you wouldn't have read so many stories before the Australian Open began about being able to win all the Slams in the calendar year. In fact her coach and boyfriend, Patrick Mouratoglou, had said 'why not' to that suggestion as he said Williams was the best player on the Tour by some distance.
I think it also says a lot that a player that only lost four times through the course of the season in 2013 suffered two of them while playing at the Grand Slams and I wonder if those tournaments put too much pressure on her.
It is definitely something to keep in mind as we reach the French Open and Wimbledon during the middle of the season.
The WTA Tour has moved on to Paris and Pattaya City this week, but the ATP Tour has been preparing for the Davis Cup ties to be played this weekend. The Czech Republic are the two time defending Champions after Radek Stepanek became the first player to ever win two live fifth rubbers in the Final in back to back years.
This time around, the Czech Republic are the third favourites to win the tournament mainly because of the draw which sees them likely having to beat the French team that looks full of talent in the Semi Finals.
France can call on Richard Gasquet, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils, Julien Benneteau, Gilles Simon and Benoit Paire to name a few and there is a real belief that they can win their first Davis Cup title since 2001. They face Australia in the First Round, a team that doesn't have the same depth as they did a few years ago, while neither a weakened Spain nor Germany would intimidate the French in the Quarter Finals.
The French were beaten the last time they faced the Czech Republic in 2009 and that does look a close tie to call if Stepanek keeps saving his best performances for the competition to back up what Tomas Berdych brings to the court.
The other side of the draw doesn't present the same problem, especially if Roger Federer can make himself available to join Stanislas Wawrinka for the Swiss Davis Cup team- Federer has won almost everything there is to win on a tennis court, except the Davis Cup, and it could be his best chance to right that now Wawrinka is playing at an extremely high level too.
You have to remember these two were the Gold Medal winners at the Beijing Olympics in the Doubles tournament and they have the benefit of playing Serbia without their top three players in the First Round followed by a clash with either Belgium or Kazakhstan.
Argentina are not expected to have Juan Martin Del Potro this season, the United States are not the team of a few years ago when it comes to players that can play the Singles rubbers even if they do have the best Doubles team in the world, while Great Britain can only rely on Andy Murray as a genuine threat to win his rubbers over four Rounds.
My concern would be that Roger Federer has admitted that he hasn't planned for the full season of Davis Cup, but you would think he is going to be interested with the way the draw has panned out. Switzerland have not won the Davis Cup before which will give Federer and Wawrinka more motivation to go as far as they can and I can see why this team is the favourite to win the competition.
The Final would not be an easy match against either France or the Czech Republic, especially as it will come at the end of a gruelling season when both Federer and Wawrinka would be expecting to play at the World Tour Finals in London. However, Switzerland have the most straight-forward path to the Final as long as their top two players make themselves available through the year and I will back them to win the Davis Cup.
Most of the markets for the individual matches have yet to be placed by the layers so I will add to this tomorrow morning if there is anything that appeals.
MY PICKS: Switzerland to Win the Davis Cup @ 3.50 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Australian Open Daily Picks: 29-20, + 18.21 Units (89 Units Staked, + 20.46% Yield)
Australian Open Outright Picks: 1-3, - 6.25 Units (9 Units Staked, - 69.44% Yield)
Season 2014: - 2.67 Units (155 Units Staked, - 1.72% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
The fact that Wawrinka beat the top two players in the World on the way to the title and has subsequently improved his own World Ranking to Number 3 means he deserves all the success he earned at Melbourne Park and the new Swiss Number 1 may also be a threat in tournaments through the rest of the year.
He proved his worth by pushing Novak Djokovic to five sets in two Slams last season, while he also has wins over Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray in the last twelve months which should have the belief flowing in the Wawrinka game.
Of course, Wawrinka was aided by the back injury suffered by Nadal in the warm up but I don't want to take anything away from the player who deserves his success after learning to control his emotions in the last eighteen months. He looks effective off both wings now and his serve seems to be getting better and there won't be too many players happy to see Wawrinka in their side of the draw as we move through the rest of the Tour.
The surprise loss for Serena Williams in the Fourth Round also highlighted again that the American should not be short odds to win these Grand Slam tournaments despite being the best player on the WTA Tour. Getting through seven matches without a dip in form is almost impossible, but Serena has shown susceptibility to the shock result and not being able to find the form or belief to come through when she is not at her best.
I appreciate winning two out of four Grand Slam events, as Williams did last season, is an impressive feat and I do think she is rightly the favourite to win, but odds on quotes should not be justified as she has lost to the likes of Virginie Razzano, Sloane Stephens, Sabine Lisicki and Ana Ivanovic in Grand Slam tournaments over the last couple of years.
And even winning two out of four is seemingly not enough for Serena to be seen as a successful season else you wouldn't have read so many stories before the Australian Open began about being able to win all the Slams in the calendar year. In fact her coach and boyfriend, Patrick Mouratoglou, had said 'why not' to that suggestion as he said Williams was the best player on the Tour by some distance.
I think it also says a lot that a player that only lost four times through the course of the season in 2013 suffered two of them while playing at the Grand Slams and I wonder if those tournaments put too much pressure on her.
It is definitely something to keep in mind as we reach the French Open and Wimbledon during the middle of the season.
The WTA Tour has moved on to Paris and Pattaya City this week, but the ATP Tour has been preparing for the Davis Cup ties to be played this weekend. The Czech Republic are the two time defending Champions after Radek Stepanek became the first player to ever win two live fifth rubbers in the Final in back to back years.
This time around, the Czech Republic are the third favourites to win the tournament mainly because of the draw which sees them likely having to beat the French team that looks full of talent in the Semi Finals.
France can call on Richard Gasquet, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils, Julien Benneteau, Gilles Simon and Benoit Paire to name a few and there is a real belief that they can win their first Davis Cup title since 2001. They face Australia in the First Round, a team that doesn't have the same depth as they did a few years ago, while neither a weakened Spain nor Germany would intimidate the French in the Quarter Finals.
The French were beaten the last time they faced the Czech Republic in 2009 and that does look a close tie to call if Stepanek keeps saving his best performances for the competition to back up what Tomas Berdych brings to the court.
The other side of the draw doesn't present the same problem, especially if Roger Federer can make himself available to join Stanislas Wawrinka for the Swiss Davis Cup team- Federer has won almost everything there is to win on a tennis court, except the Davis Cup, and it could be his best chance to right that now Wawrinka is playing at an extremely high level too.
You have to remember these two were the Gold Medal winners at the Beijing Olympics in the Doubles tournament and they have the benefit of playing Serbia without their top three players in the First Round followed by a clash with either Belgium or Kazakhstan.
Argentina are not expected to have Juan Martin Del Potro this season, the United States are not the team of a few years ago when it comes to players that can play the Singles rubbers even if they do have the best Doubles team in the world, while Great Britain can only rely on Andy Murray as a genuine threat to win his rubbers over four Rounds.
My concern would be that Roger Federer has admitted that he hasn't planned for the full season of Davis Cup, but you would think he is going to be interested with the way the draw has panned out. Switzerland have not won the Davis Cup before which will give Federer and Wawrinka more motivation to go as far as they can and I can see why this team is the favourite to win the competition.
The Final would not be an easy match against either France or the Czech Republic, especially as it will come at the end of a gruelling season when both Federer and Wawrinka would be expecting to play at the World Tour Finals in London. However, Switzerland have the most straight-forward path to the Final as long as their top two players make themselves available through the year and I will back them to win the Davis Cup.
Most of the markets for the individual matches have yet to be placed by the layers so I will add to this tomorrow morning if there is anything that appeals.
MY PICKS: Switzerland to Win the Davis Cup @ 3.50 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Australian Open Daily Picks: 29-20, + 18.21 Units (89 Units Staked, + 20.46% Yield)
Australian Open Outright Picks: 1-3, - 6.25 Units (9 Units Staked, - 69.44% Yield)
Season 2014: - 2.67 Units (155 Units Staked, - 1.72% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
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