I hate days like Friday when you are left looking at the results that have occurred and you see that there are a couple points here and there that could have made all the difference. When it seems to have happened in an amount of matches that could have turned the entire day, it is just a frustration that can't be ignored, a scratch that has to be itched if you will.
After days like that I am glad that the Asian swing is going on because you can have a long period to think about whether the picks were not very good, which in some cases they were, or whether it was just a bit of bad luck going against them. It was a mix of both on Friday, but it has been a good couple of weeks to turn the tide of the last three months so clearly something has been working.
The tournaments have moved onto the Semi Finals at the two sites this week and those will be played on Saturday. The WTA China Open could see a couple more players move into a position close to qualifying for the Tour Finals in Singapore at the end of the month, with the winner here earning a valuable 1000 points and all four Semi Finalists in a strong position if they can go on and take the title home.
The one with the least pressure is Garbine Muguruza who has already earned her place earlier in the week, but that won't mean the Spaniard can ease off the throttle as she looks to pick up a big title in the next couple of days.
All four men's Semi Finals in Tokyo and Beijing look very interesting to watch too so it should be a good day's tennis for the early risers.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: I don't particularly like backing Stan Wawrinka as a favourite to cover big handicaps because he always seems to make life more difficult than it need to be. He is facing Gilles Muller in the Semi Final in Tokyo and this is certainly not a match he can take lightly, even if he has gotten the better of Muller twice already this season.
Both of those matches came earlier in the year and there was one tie-breaker in both which does make this number of games a little more difficult for Stan Wawrinka to cover. Gilles Muller is also playing the big points very well this week as shown when saving another 7 break points from 8 opportunities in his Quarter Final win over Gilles Simon.
That now means Muller has saved 18 of the 19 break points he has faced in Tokyo, although it has to be pointed out that he was fortunate to escape an early break in his Quarter Final win. If he goes behind the match might take a different direction than it eventually did and I am not convinced he can keep Stan Wawrinka away considering how well the Swiss player has played the big points himself.
It is a difficult number of games if Muller continues to serve effectively under pressure though, especially as Wawrinka is never far away from a sloppy service game or two. However, you have to think Muller will lose some of the luck that has been on his side at break point (hitting a net cord on a stretch volley which died over the net early in the match with Simon springs to mind) and Wawrinka has proven he can break the serve on a fast indoor court as he did in Rotterdam.
As long as Wawrinka can look after his side of the court, I like him to move into the Final here with a 76, 63 win.
Benoit Paire + 4.5 games v Kei Nishikori: The home favourite has a chance to avenge arguably his most difficult loss of the 2015 season when Kei Nishikori takes on Benoit Paire in this Semi Final. Nishikori reached the Final of the US Open in 2014, but he was a First Round victim to the Frenchman this season and will be looking to show the home crowd that he is over that loss last month.
I am sometimes a little critical of the Benoit Paire game because I think the player doesn't have the right attitude to back up his skills. He is clearly a good player, but when the mental focus isn't there, Paire is likely to be blown off the court or give very limited resistance to an opponent.
On the other hand, he has shown this week that he is capable of digging deep as he has won three consecutive matches in three setters. Wins over Grigor Dimitrov and Nick Kyrgios will build some confidence and Paire is capable of giving Nishikori something to think about with this number of games behind him.
It is no surprise that Nishikori is the favourite with two titles in three years in Tokyo and I do think he is the better player. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he needs three sets to see off Paire and that makes this number of games being given to his opponent look very appealing.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Fabio Fognini: This has been a great year for Fabio Fognini if his season was determined by his match ups with Rafael Nadal as the Italian has won three of their four matches. He came from 2-0 down to beat Nadal at the US Open so there is nothing that Nadal can bring to the court that will intimidate Fognini in this one.
This is not the first time they have met in Beijing either as Nadal had to come from a set down to beat Fognini in 2013 and I am expecting a fascinating match in this Semi Final.
The defeat in the US Open might have been the lowest point for Nadal in what has been a difficult 2015 season, but he has played well for the most part this week. He will need to serve well to keep Fognini on the back foot, although I expect Nadal will be able to have some joy against the Italian's serve too.
It could be tight and competitive throughout, but I think Nadal will get the better of Fognini in this short format compared with the best of five sets at the US Open. Expect plenty of break point chances to be created by both players, but I like Nadal finding his way to a 75, 64 win.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v David Ferrer: After having a long week on the way to the title in Kuala Lumper, David Ferrer deserves a lot of credit for reaching the Semi Final in Beijing. The quality of opponent can't get any higher for Ferrer who has already added some valuable points for the 'Race to London' and may have begun to think about adding plenty more in Shanghai next week.
Ferrer never really strikes me as someone who will look beyond the next match he has, but it can be hard to ignore the points on offer if he goes behind in this one. Novak Djokovic has been in such imperious form that he is unlikely to let Ferrer off the hook if he does move ahead especially as he should be fresh with almost a month rest between the US Open and this tournament.
Djokovic has loved playing in Beijing and loves the conditions here which have seen him win three straight titles in this part of China. He has barely dropped games this week and the 62, 62 win over John Isner is very, very impressive.
He has looked like a player on a mission this week and Djokovic has been dominating both behind serve and on return. While his matches with Ferrer have been competitive in the past as both players have been able to break down the other and their service games, I think fatigue is against Ferrer and I also believe Djokovic has been in sublime form which is working out a perfect storm to lead to a 75, 62 kind of win.
Garbine Muguruza v Agnieszka Radwanska: I didn't read the Quarter Final that Agnieszka Radwanska was involved in, but I am surprised that she is the favourite to beat Garbine Muguruza.
I am wondering if that has something to do with the fact that Muguruza has already qualified for the WTA Finals and Radwanska is still chasing points to ensure a top nine finish.
But that alone can't make sense considering both players are in similar vein of form and Muguruza has won the last three matches against Radwanska. Barring an opening set against Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, Muguruza has been in very good form this week to back up her appearance in the Wuhan Final last week and she is serving very well too.
When the serve is on, Muguruza is a very dangerous customer and I don't think she allows Radwanska to get away with her second serve as Angelique Kerber did in the Quarter Final. It will be a close match considering Radwanska won the title in Tokyo and has been in strong form this week, but Muguruza has worked out how to play judging by the three straight wins in the head to head and shouldn't be the underdog.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Benoit Paire + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-9, - 6.92 Units (32 Units Staked, - 21.63% Yield)
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Showing posts with label China Open Picks. Show all posts
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Friday, 9 October 2015
Thursday, 8 October 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (October 9th)
The WTA Finals are fast approaching and this tournament in Beijing might be the key one in determining the top eight players that will take part in Singapore. I am still not convinced that Maria Sharapova will play in the tournament which means there will be an additional space, perhaps another if Simona Halep makes the same decision.
However, there are a number of players chasing the eight positions to be filled and players as low down as Ana Ivanovic in Number 21 in the Race for Singapore could find themselves in a great position to qualify by earning the 1000 points for winning this event.
It makes the last two weeks on the Tour exciting and Venus Williams has become the first of a number of players who will likely take Wild Cards into events to earn the points they need.
We have reached the Quarter Finals in the WTA China Open and the same in both ATP events in Beijing and Tokyo. All twelve matches have been scheduled for Friday and will be played through the day as we get set for the business end of the tournaments this weekend.
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Matches like this Quarter Final may determine whether Angelique Kerber or Agnieszka Radwanska will be playing in Singapore in the WTA Finals. The points to be earned at this stage of the season in the last big event on the WTA Tour can't be ignored especially as there are just 300 points between these two.
The fact is the winner will earn at least 180 more points than the losing player so this is a huge match when it comes to determining those best eight places for the WTA Finals.
It will be close as shown by the fact that the last ten matches Kerber and Radwanska have played against one another have been split five apiece, although it is the German who has won three of the last four. Radwanska won the title in Tokyo recently, but I would say Kerber has also been the more consistent in recent weeks and I do like her chances in winning this match.
I believe the Kerber serve is the stronger of the two that will be taking to the court and that can prove to be the difference maker in these WTA matches. Both have very strong movement around the court, but the recent form suggests Kerber can keep her run going against Radwanska which includes a tight three set win in Stanford a couple of months ago.
Three sets wouldn't surprise me again, but I like Kerber battling through 57, 64, 63.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 4.5 games v Ana Ivanovic: After fighting through the cramp and an injury time out in the final set, Ana Ivanovic moved through to the Quarter Final at the WTA China Open on Thursday. She still has a chance of making it to the WTA Finals if she can win the tournament and the 1000 Ranking points it comes with and Ivanovic has had a strong run so far this week.
The big question for her is how quickly can she recover from what was ailing her on Thursday? This match has been scheduled less than twenty-four hours after she was on the court and the big hitting Russian Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova should be full of confidence having beaten the US Open Champion Flavia Pennetta from a set down.
Of course Pavlyuchenkova has to overcome the fact she has lost six of seven previous matches against Ivanovic and the sole win came when her opponent had to retire on the brink of defeat in Wuhan last year. That can be mentally tough especially as some of those matches have been very one-sided towards Ivanovic and has to be a concern for me.
However, I like her with this number of games because I am not sure Ivanovic is fully healthy to compete and Pavlyuchenkova has shown some battling qualities to come through her matches this week. She has served effectively and has the power to pummel the return of serve if Ivanovic continues to struggle with that aspect of her game as she did against Svetlana Kuznetsova.
Kuznetsova is another Russian who has struggled in past meetings against Ivanovic which played their part in her defeat on Thursday as it was a match she should really have won. However, she managed to cover this number of games and I like Pavlyuchenkova in this underdog spot to do the same.
Gilles Simon - 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: If Gilles Simon can end the season with three or four deep runs at some of the ATP 500 and Masters events yet to be played, he potentially can get into the running for the World Tour Finals in London. It looks unlikely but a Runner Up spot in Metz two weeks ago has been followed by a run to the Quarter Final in Tokyo and the Frenchman is the favourite to see off Gilles Muller.
He beat Muller during the run to the Final in Metz and that was thanks to a very good serving day for Simon as he protected the second serve very effectively. He'll know what to expect from Muller and his left-handed serve having seen this only two weeks ago, but Muller can be a difficult opponent to get a really good read on.
Muller does have a big serve in terms of speed, but his biggest weapon is the accuracy of the serve that can make it very difficult to return effectively. Most professionals might be able to get the ball back if that was their sole aim, but an effective return is more difficult, although Simon did do that very well on an indoor hard court.
The last two opponents have created eleven break points against Muller without breaking through, so Simon will know the chances will come his way if he sticks to his task. I do become concerned with Simon's own service games which can need a lot of work to protect, but he has played well in recent weeks and I like his chances to find a 76, 64 win in this Quarter Final.
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: Both of these players are chasing a berth at the World Tour Finals in London for a second consecutive season having debuted there last season. It is strange to think that this time last year saw these two coming off a Grand Slam Final against one another, but that win for Marin Cilic has been a rare occurrence when facing Kei Nishikori since the 2013 season.
In fact it is the only win Cilic has had in that US Open Final in 2014 in their last five matches and Kei Nishikori has worn down the Croatian once he begins to get a read on the serve. Cilic does possess a big shot on serve, but it can be predictable and an effective returner like Nishikori can certainly begin to get the better of both first and second serve returns.
The home tournament should inspire Nishikori as he looks to win his third title in four years at this event in Tokyo and there have been some solid performances to think he can win this match. As much as Cilic has been able to put some wins together in recent weeks, there is no doubting that he hasn't got anywhere near the level that took him to the US Open title on a consistent basis.
All four wins Nishikori has recorded over Cilic since 2013 has seen him cover this number as he wears down Cilic and eventually breaks through a couple of times in a single set. The Nishikori serve is never too far from being put under pressure as he has to work hard to win points when the first serve deserts him, but I still believe he will be too good for Marin Cilic and record a 75, 63 win.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Jack Sock: The end to the 2015 season, which was a disappointment for Rafael Nadal, could give him the kind of momentum to take into the 2016 season that Nadal would desire. A strong end has been used by some of the top names to give them a spark going into a new season and winning a tournament in Beijing which includes Novak Djokovic would be a great start for Nadal.
At the moment he is still on the edge of the World Tour Finals so Nadal needs some more points to ensure he is going be back in London having missed out last year with an injury. The indoor hard court season might not be to his liking, but for now Nadal will focus on Beijing and Shanghai where 1500 points are available.
Nadal beat Jack Sock's Doubles partner Vasek Pospisil in the Second Round with an impressive performance and I like his chances to knock off the American in this Quarter Final. Sock is perhaps slightly under-rated overall, but Nadal looks a bigger price than I expected and so the handicap is at least two games lower than I may have thought.
We know Sock can serve well and has a heavy forehand, but the backhand is a weakness that a left-hander will look to oppose. The second serve is not as effective as the first either and Nadal was in fine form in the Second Round, although his consistency is not as it was eighteen months ago.
Both of Sock's wins have been very straight-forward this week, and he has been serving well enough to have only faced two break points in two wins. However, Nadal did enough damage to Vasek Pospisil's serve, which I consider better than Sock's, and I like the Spaniard to move into the Quarter Final behind a 64, 64 win.
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: Fabio Fognini's girlfriend might have been knocked out of Beijing and that might mean his focus is on going sight-seeing with her, but I think he would much rather have another crack at Rafael Nadal.
If Nadal has won, Fognini would meet him in the Semi Final if he can win this match and I think that will inspire a big performance from the Italian. He has two solid wins this week and Fognini has a decent record against Pablo Cuevas including beating him at the US Open in September.
You do have to respect the two wins Cuevas has had over Tomas Berdych and Ivo Karlovic, although the former had as much to do with Berdych playing a delayed Final in Shenzhen. Beating Karlovic in two tie-breakers is solid enough, but Fognini presents a completely different challenge with the Italian dragging Cuevas into long rallies.
We all know that Fognini is a bit of a wild card with the way his performances can dip below club level but then reach the heights of someone who could challenge the very best on Tour. I think that potential match with Nadal will have Fognini focused and I think he breaks down Cuevas in a 62, 46, 64 kind of win.
MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-4, + 1.48 Units (20 Units Staked, + 7.40% Yield)
However, there are a number of players chasing the eight positions to be filled and players as low down as Ana Ivanovic in Number 21 in the Race for Singapore could find themselves in a great position to qualify by earning the 1000 points for winning this event.
It makes the last two weeks on the Tour exciting and Venus Williams has become the first of a number of players who will likely take Wild Cards into events to earn the points they need.
We have reached the Quarter Finals in the WTA China Open and the same in both ATP events in Beijing and Tokyo. All twelve matches have been scheduled for Friday and will be played through the day as we get set for the business end of the tournaments this weekend.
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Matches like this Quarter Final may determine whether Angelique Kerber or Agnieszka Radwanska will be playing in Singapore in the WTA Finals. The points to be earned at this stage of the season in the last big event on the WTA Tour can't be ignored especially as there are just 300 points between these two.
The fact is the winner will earn at least 180 more points than the losing player so this is a huge match when it comes to determining those best eight places for the WTA Finals.
It will be close as shown by the fact that the last ten matches Kerber and Radwanska have played against one another have been split five apiece, although it is the German who has won three of the last four. Radwanska won the title in Tokyo recently, but I would say Kerber has also been the more consistent in recent weeks and I do like her chances in winning this match.
I believe the Kerber serve is the stronger of the two that will be taking to the court and that can prove to be the difference maker in these WTA matches. Both have very strong movement around the court, but the recent form suggests Kerber can keep her run going against Radwanska which includes a tight three set win in Stanford a couple of months ago.
Three sets wouldn't surprise me again, but I like Kerber battling through 57, 64, 63.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 4.5 games v Ana Ivanovic: After fighting through the cramp and an injury time out in the final set, Ana Ivanovic moved through to the Quarter Final at the WTA China Open on Thursday. She still has a chance of making it to the WTA Finals if she can win the tournament and the 1000 Ranking points it comes with and Ivanovic has had a strong run so far this week.
The big question for her is how quickly can she recover from what was ailing her on Thursday? This match has been scheduled less than twenty-four hours after she was on the court and the big hitting Russian Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova should be full of confidence having beaten the US Open Champion Flavia Pennetta from a set down.
Of course Pavlyuchenkova has to overcome the fact she has lost six of seven previous matches against Ivanovic and the sole win came when her opponent had to retire on the brink of defeat in Wuhan last year. That can be mentally tough especially as some of those matches have been very one-sided towards Ivanovic and has to be a concern for me.
However, I like her with this number of games because I am not sure Ivanovic is fully healthy to compete and Pavlyuchenkova has shown some battling qualities to come through her matches this week. She has served effectively and has the power to pummel the return of serve if Ivanovic continues to struggle with that aspect of her game as she did against Svetlana Kuznetsova.
Kuznetsova is another Russian who has struggled in past meetings against Ivanovic which played their part in her defeat on Thursday as it was a match she should really have won. However, she managed to cover this number of games and I like Pavlyuchenkova in this underdog spot to do the same.
Gilles Simon - 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: If Gilles Simon can end the season with three or four deep runs at some of the ATP 500 and Masters events yet to be played, he potentially can get into the running for the World Tour Finals in London. It looks unlikely but a Runner Up spot in Metz two weeks ago has been followed by a run to the Quarter Final in Tokyo and the Frenchman is the favourite to see off Gilles Muller.
He beat Muller during the run to the Final in Metz and that was thanks to a very good serving day for Simon as he protected the second serve very effectively. He'll know what to expect from Muller and his left-handed serve having seen this only two weeks ago, but Muller can be a difficult opponent to get a really good read on.
Muller does have a big serve in terms of speed, but his biggest weapon is the accuracy of the serve that can make it very difficult to return effectively. Most professionals might be able to get the ball back if that was their sole aim, but an effective return is more difficult, although Simon did do that very well on an indoor hard court.
The last two opponents have created eleven break points against Muller without breaking through, so Simon will know the chances will come his way if he sticks to his task. I do become concerned with Simon's own service games which can need a lot of work to protect, but he has played well in recent weeks and I like his chances to find a 76, 64 win in this Quarter Final.
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: Both of these players are chasing a berth at the World Tour Finals in London for a second consecutive season having debuted there last season. It is strange to think that this time last year saw these two coming off a Grand Slam Final against one another, but that win for Marin Cilic has been a rare occurrence when facing Kei Nishikori since the 2013 season.
In fact it is the only win Cilic has had in that US Open Final in 2014 in their last five matches and Kei Nishikori has worn down the Croatian once he begins to get a read on the serve. Cilic does possess a big shot on serve, but it can be predictable and an effective returner like Nishikori can certainly begin to get the better of both first and second serve returns.
The home tournament should inspire Nishikori as he looks to win his third title in four years at this event in Tokyo and there have been some solid performances to think he can win this match. As much as Cilic has been able to put some wins together in recent weeks, there is no doubting that he hasn't got anywhere near the level that took him to the US Open title on a consistent basis.
All four wins Nishikori has recorded over Cilic since 2013 has seen him cover this number as he wears down Cilic and eventually breaks through a couple of times in a single set. The Nishikori serve is never too far from being put under pressure as he has to work hard to win points when the first serve deserts him, but I still believe he will be too good for Marin Cilic and record a 75, 63 win.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Jack Sock: The end to the 2015 season, which was a disappointment for Rafael Nadal, could give him the kind of momentum to take into the 2016 season that Nadal would desire. A strong end has been used by some of the top names to give them a spark going into a new season and winning a tournament in Beijing which includes Novak Djokovic would be a great start for Nadal.
At the moment he is still on the edge of the World Tour Finals so Nadal needs some more points to ensure he is going be back in London having missed out last year with an injury. The indoor hard court season might not be to his liking, but for now Nadal will focus on Beijing and Shanghai where 1500 points are available.
Nadal beat Jack Sock's Doubles partner Vasek Pospisil in the Second Round with an impressive performance and I like his chances to knock off the American in this Quarter Final. Sock is perhaps slightly under-rated overall, but Nadal looks a bigger price than I expected and so the handicap is at least two games lower than I may have thought.
We know Sock can serve well and has a heavy forehand, but the backhand is a weakness that a left-hander will look to oppose. The second serve is not as effective as the first either and Nadal was in fine form in the Second Round, although his consistency is not as it was eighteen months ago.
Both of Sock's wins have been very straight-forward this week, and he has been serving well enough to have only faced two break points in two wins. However, Nadal did enough damage to Vasek Pospisil's serve, which I consider better than Sock's, and I like the Spaniard to move into the Quarter Final behind a 64, 64 win.
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: Fabio Fognini's girlfriend might have been knocked out of Beijing and that might mean his focus is on going sight-seeing with her, but I think he would much rather have another crack at Rafael Nadal.
If Nadal has won, Fognini would meet him in the Semi Final if he can win this match and I think that will inspire a big performance from the Italian. He has two solid wins this week and Fognini has a decent record against Pablo Cuevas including beating him at the US Open in September.
You do have to respect the two wins Cuevas has had over Tomas Berdych and Ivo Karlovic, although the former had as much to do with Berdych playing a delayed Final in Shenzhen. Beating Karlovic in two tie-breakers is solid enough, but Fognini presents a completely different challenge with the Italian dragging Cuevas into long rallies.
We all know that Fognini is a bit of a wild card with the way his performances can dip below club level but then reach the heights of someone who could challenge the very best on Tour. I think that potential match with Nadal will have Fognini focused and I think he breaks down Cuevas in a 62, 46, 64 kind of win.
MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-4, + 1.48 Units (20 Units Staked, + 7.40% Yield)
Wednesday, 7 October 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (October 8th)
It wasn't a great day for the picks on Wednesday as they went 1-2, but it could have been worse if Madison Keys hadn't decided to pull out when down a set. That only makes up for the Sam Groth retirement on Tuesday, but goes back to the point about the injuries on the WTA Tour at this stage of the season.
There is plenty of tennis scheduled for Thursday, but my focus is going to be on the WTA China Open and the completion of the Third Round matches in that event. I did look through the men's matches that are taking place in Tokyo and Beijing, but nothing really stood out there, while all four WTA matches seem to offer some possibilities.
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 games v Bethanie Mattek-Sands: Confidence is such a difference-maker for players at the very top of tennis and Roberta Vinci might be feeling on top of the world despite coming up short in a couple of big tournaments. She reached her maiden Singles Grand Slam Final at the US Open before losing to compatriot Flavia Pennetta and it might have been easy for her to put a period on the 2015 season after that Final.
However, Vinci rode that confidence to a Semi Final in Wuhan last week where she came up just short against Venus Williams who went on to win the tournament and another comfortable win in the Second Round in Beijing has maintained her form.
With the injuries to some of the top names on the WTA Tour who are leading the 'Race for Singapore', Vinci might just get involved in the Tour Finals with another strong week here.
She is facing a confident player in Bethanie Mattek-Sands who has come through the Qualifiers as well as two Rounds in the main draw. The American can bring some real quality to the court, although she is a little too inconsistent to move up the World Rankings, but she is tough to stop when she gets on a roll as she is in on in Beijing.
At the moment it is Vinci who looks like she is rolling the better though and I expect her to keep the momentum going from the last couple of months. The first set is likely to be tight, but I expect Vinci will come through 76, 63.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 2.5 games v Flavia Pennetta: Winning a Grand Slam is the objective of any player that begins playing professional tennis and 99% of players simply won't be able to get to that level. For Flavia Pennetta you have to say it was the perfect time for her to announce her retirement after surprisingly winning the US Open in September, although she will complete her tournaments for the remainder of the season.
There has been some talk of a very small chance she reverses that decision so she can compete at the Olympics next summer, but I do wonder where her focus is this week. It can be hard to dig deep when you've made the decision that the career is over and coming off a big tournament win like she has, but Pennetta has shown her competitive spirit by winning her first two matches in three sets.
While I think Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has underachieved in her career, she is still good enough to get the better of someone who is perhaps looking to the finish line already. The tight wins Pennetta has had this week have come against opponents she would have been expected to blow away and this is the most difficult of the matches she has faced so far.
Pavlyuchenkova has a big game, but her movement is still an issue and I think she can get frustrated when things don't go her way. That can see her fall apart even when in a strong position, but I like her chances to win a set and keep this match competitive. If Pennetta is unfocused, Pavlyuchenkova can beat her for the first time, but I will take the games in this one rather than an outright position.
Mirjana Lucic-Baroni + 5.5 games v Garbine Muguruza: The last two weeks have been very productive for Garbine Muguruza after she reached the Final in Wuhan and has then made a very positive start to the tournament in Beijing. However, Muguruza had to withdraw from the Final in Wuhan with an ankle injury and she might find that being worked a little more by Mirjana Lucic-Baroni than it was by Irina Falconi.
Lucic-Baroni is a competitive player and rarely is blown away so I expect her to give Muguruza plenty to think about in this one.
However, I do respect the fact that Muguruza has been in imperious form over the last two weeks and been beating players by wide margins. This is not usually something you can expect from her consistently as the Spaniard plays with very small margins which can easily lead to tighter matches than necessary.
Matches between these players in the past have been competitive too and I think Lucic-Baroni is capable of winning a set in this one which would make the number of games she is getting very appealing. If Muguruza's ankle hasn't responded well to her first match in Beijing, someone like Lucic-Baroni certainly has the capabilities of exposing any injury and this looks a lot of games to be given.
Svetlana Kuznetsova + 4.5 games v Ana Ivanovic: Ana Ivanovic has to be considered one of the most inconsistent players on the Tour who regularly find themselves in the top ten of the World Rankings. On the other hand, Svetlana Kuznetsova might be a two time Grand Slam Champion, but she looks like she might on an irreversible downward trend on the Tour as she has slipped down to Number 33 in the World Rankings.
The two players meet for a Quarter Final berth in Beijing and the precious Ranking points this event can bring them and both have had some solid wins to reach this stage. Ivanovic beat Wuhan Champion Venus Williams in the Second Round while Kuznetsova was knocking off Sloane Stephens, but neither player can point to a lot of form prior to Beijing.
Kuznetsova has seemed to have lost just half a step which affects her ability to get around the court as she did in her prime, but she is still a solid player that can cause problems on her day. She'll have to serve well to remain competitive in this one, although the Russian will know that Ivanovic is never too far away from a mental collapse on court.
It doesn't happen often when Ivanovic faces Kuznetsova and this is a match up she has enjoyed with ten wins from their thirteen previous matches including four in a row. Some of those wins have been close though and Kuznetsova is capable of taking a set in this one which could give Ivanovic a lot of games to cover.
I just think Ivanovic is also coming in off a big win and picking herself emotionally from that win has proven difficult for her in the past. Someone like Kuznetsova is still solid enough to expose any nerves and I like the number of games she is getting in this Third Round match.
MY PICKS: Roberta Vinci - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mirjana Lucic-Baroni + 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-3, - 1.58 Units (12 Units Staked, - 13.17% Yield)
There is plenty of tennis scheduled for Thursday, but my focus is going to be on the WTA China Open and the completion of the Third Round matches in that event. I did look through the men's matches that are taking place in Tokyo and Beijing, but nothing really stood out there, while all four WTA matches seem to offer some possibilities.
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 games v Bethanie Mattek-Sands: Confidence is such a difference-maker for players at the very top of tennis and Roberta Vinci might be feeling on top of the world despite coming up short in a couple of big tournaments. She reached her maiden Singles Grand Slam Final at the US Open before losing to compatriot Flavia Pennetta and it might have been easy for her to put a period on the 2015 season after that Final.
However, Vinci rode that confidence to a Semi Final in Wuhan last week where she came up just short against Venus Williams who went on to win the tournament and another comfortable win in the Second Round in Beijing has maintained her form.
With the injuries to some of the top names on the WTA Tour who are leading the 'Race for Singapore', Vinci might just get involved in the Tour Finals with another strong week here.
She is facing a confident player in Bethanie Mattek-Sands who has come through the Qualifiers as well as two Rounds in the main draw. The American can bring some real quality to the court, although she is a little too inconsistent to move up the World Rankings, but she is tough to stop when she gets on a roll as she is in on in Beijing.
At the moment it is Vinci who looks like she is rolling the better though and I expect her to keep the momentum going from the last couple of months. The first set is likely to be tight, but I expect Vinci will come through 76, 63.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 2.5 games v Flavia Pennetta: Winning a Grand Slam is the objective of any player that begins playing professional tennis and 99% of players simply won't be able to get to that level. For Flavia Pennetta you have to say it was the perfect time for her to announce her retirement after surprisingly winning the US Open in September, although she will complete her tournaments for the remainder of the season.
There has been some talk of a very small chance she reverses that decision so she can compete at the Olympics next summer, but I do wonder where her focus is this week. It can be hard to dig deep when you've made the decision that the career is over and coming off a big tournament win like she has, but Pennetta has shown her competitive spirit by winning her first two matches in three sets.
While I think Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has underachieved in her career, she is still good enough to get the better of someone who is perhaps looking to the finish line already. The tight wins Pennetta has had this week have come against opponents she would have been expected to blow away and this is the most difficult of the matches she has faced so far.
Pavlyuchenkova has a big game, but her movement is still an issue and I think she can get frustrated when things don't go her way. That can see her fall apart even when in a strong position, but I like her chances to win a set and keep this match competitive. If Pennetta is unfocused, Pavlyuchenkova can beat her for the first time, but I will take the games in this one rather than an outright position.
Mirjana Lucic-Baroni + 5.5 games v Garbine Muguruza: The last two weeks have been very productive for Garbine Muguruza after she reached the Final in Wuhan and has then made a very positive start to the tournament in Beijing. However, Muguruza had to withdraw from the Final in Wuhan with an ankle injury and she might find that being worked a little more by Mirjana Lucic-Baroni than it was by Irina Falconi.
Lucic-Baroni is a competitive player and rarely is blown away so I expect her to give Muguruza plenty to think about in this one.
However, I do respect the fact that Muguruza has been in imperious form over the last two weeks and been beating players by wide margins. This is not usually something you can expect from her consistently as the Spaniard plays with very small margins which can easily lead to tighter matches than necessary.
Matches between these players in the past have been competitive too and I think Lucic-Baroni is capable of winning a set in this one which would make the number of games she is getting very appealing. If Muguruza's ankle hasn't responded well to her first match in Beijing, someone like Lucic-Baroni certainly has the capabilities of exposing any injury and this looks a lot of games to be given.
Svetlana Kuznetsova + 4.5 games v Ana Ivanovic: Ana Ivanovic has to be considered one of the most inconsistent players on the Tour who regularly find themselves in the top ten of the World Rankings. On the other hand, Svetlana Kuznetsova might be a two time Grand Slam Champion, but she looks like she might on an irreversible downward trend on the Tour as she has slipped down to Number 33 in the World Rankings.
The two players meet for a Quarter Final berth in Beijing and the precious Ranking points this event can bring them and both have had some solid wins to reach this stage. Ivanovic beat Wuhan Champion Venus Williams in the Second Round while Kuznetsova was knocking off Sloane Stephens, but neither player can point to a lot of form prior to Beijing.
Kuznetsova has seemed to have lost just half a step which affects her ability to get around the court as she did in her prime, but she is still a solid player that can cause problems on her day. She'll have to serve well to remain competitive in this one, although the Russian will know that Ivanovic is never too far away from a mental collapse on court.
It doesn't happen often when Ivanovic faces Kuznetsova and this is a match up she has enjoyed with ten wins from their thirteen previous matches including four in a row. Some of those wins have been close though and Kuznetsova is capable of taking a set in this one which could give Ivanovic a lot of games to cover.
I just think Ivanovic is also coming in off a big win and picking herself emotionally from that win has proven difficult for her in the past. Someone like Kuznetsova is still solid enough to expose any nerves and I like the number of games she is getting in this Third Round match.
MY PICKS: Roberta Vinci - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mirjana Lucic-Baroni + 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-3, - 1.58 Units (12 Units Staked, - 13.17% Yield)
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