Boxing Picks 2022- Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin III (September 17th)

There has been another mini-gap between major Boxing fights around the world, but on Saturday we will likely see the end of a trilogy between two fighters considered amongst the best of their generation at 160 pounds.

These days Canelo Alvarez operates at the Super-Middleweight and Light-Heavyweight limits and that has meant Gennady Golovkin has had to accept this third fight at 168 pounds.

Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin III

There has been controversy attached to the first two fights between these Middleweight Champions.

My personal scorecards had Gennady Golovkin winning the first fight (which was eventually ruled a Draw), but I did have Canelo Alvarez sneaking the second fight (which he was awarded in a Majority Decision), although I can understand those who believe the Kazakhstani legend won both.

It is the Adelaide Byrd card that has led to the spin of Canelo Alvarez not deserving either win, and I do think it was an awful piece of judging that should have had her fired on the spot and never to interfere in another fighter's career again. However, all five other cards have been either 114/114 (twice), 115/113 (twice) or 113/115 and those do indicate how closely these two have been matched.

It is incredibly unfortunate that Gennady Golovkin is likely going to have live with never earning a win over Canelo Alvarez even if he deserved to have one on his resume. At 40 years old and moving up in weight for the first time, I truly do not see how Golovkin can turn back the hands of time and win this one.

The heaviest he has ever weighed going into a fight is 163 pounds, but this is five pounds higher and Canelo Alvarez has grown into the Super-Middleweight limit effectively. His experience of being strong at this weight is going to give him a further edge, even more than simply being the 'A Fighter' and the younger legs, and I think there will be very little controversy.

Some people are built to fight others and I do think Gennady Golovkin will be willing to give his everything to turn this in his favour, but he looked like a man on the permanent decline when last season him beat Ryoto Murata back in April. He was touched up far too many times by an opponent who is not nearly as skilled or competent as Canelo Alvarez and I think the bigger question is whether the latter can find a way to get to the Stoppage.

Breaking down Gennady Golovkin will be far from easy, but there have been times in recent fights where it has felt like opponents have gotten to him. A strong puncher like Canelo Alvarez who is looking to bounce back from an upset loss to Dmitry Bivol is going to test the Golovkin gas tank more than most and I do think he can put his punches together and force the referee to step in.

I love Gennady Golovkin and I think it is a real shame he did not get the fights he deserved at his peak, but I am also very realistic in saying that he is no longer at that level. Like Joe Frazier against Muhammad Ali in Manila. I think we will see Gennady Golovkin potentially have to be told the fight is over by the corner, even in an era where we no longer see the Fifteen Rounds for the biggest bouts rather than the Twelve Rounds we now get.

Even if the corner keep him out there, Canelo Alvarez has shown he can punch hard enough at this weight to break down an opponent. I expect the Mexican to make a fast start and hurt Gennady Golovkin early before beginning to pace things out for a very strong finish as he puts an exclamation point on the end of the rivalry.

The odds against quotes for a Decision win for Canelo are pretty appealing, but I will have a smaller interest in the 168 Undisputed Champion to find the finish in the second half of the fight.

We have a pretty stacked undercard from the 'PPV is dead, but here's a PPV you can pay extra for' crew at DAZN.

Austin Williams and Diego Pacheco should both be able to win and both inside the distance.

Ali Akhmedov is another who can win on the undercard as he continues to rebuild his career, although Gabe Rosado is an able veteran who should be good enough to escape becoming the latest Stoppage defeat the Kazakhstan fighter has produced. With veteran fit, Rosado can stay out of danger in the latter Rounds, even in a losing effort.

It won't ever be easy to do that against a big hitter, but Gabe Rosado has shown he knows his way around the ring and can keep Akhmedov honest enough to reach the cards.

The main undercard bout features Jesse Rodriguez who has really sparked his career over the last nine months with big wins as he has moved up to the Super Flyweight Division. I think he is being positioned for a big time crack at the winner of the Juan Francisco Estrada-Roman Gonzalez bout to take place later this year and I think he will showcase more punching power in his bout with Israel Gonzalez.

The latter cannot be underestimated having gone the distance with Chocolatito, but I think this will be a fun fight and he will not be hard to find.

After watching the continued improvement of Jesse Rodriguez, I do think he will break down Israel Gonzalez and can find a second half Stoppage.

MY PICKS: Canelo Alvarez to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Ali Akhmedov to Win Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.62 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jesse Rodriguez to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2022: 28-47, + 13.67 Units (135 Units Staked, + 10.13% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2018- Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin (September 15th)

It is almost exactly one year to the day since the controversial scorecards were read out in the first Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin bout and much has happened in the last twelve months to increase the intensity around this rematch.

Last year there was a lot of respect between the two teams, but that went out of the window the minute Alvarez was suspended for a positive drug test and now all eyes will turn to Las Vegas for this card.

The undercard is a decent looking one too with a couple of big names in action and a real fifty-fifty looking fight at the same weight as the main event with the winner likely next in line for a shot at whoever comes out as King of the Middleweights.

Roman Gonzalez vs Moises Fuentes

This feels like a crossroads fight between Roman Gonzalez and Moises Fuentes as both players come off a loss and look to return to be a major player in a tough Division.

The back to back defeats Gonzalez suffered to Sor Rungvisai snapped his unbeaten run and dropped Chocolatito from the pound for pound ranks. The manner of the second defeat, after the controversy of the first, has people wondering if Gonzalez has slipped off his peak after some of the fine wins and wars he has been involved in.

It is a big question mark for any fighter whether it was just a bad opponent or whether Gonzalez is not the fighter he once was, but this looks a good match up for him.

Moises Fuentes has lost three of his last four fights and looks to be a fighter on the way towards the end of his career. Of course Fuentes will realise this may be his last chance at being involved in the big fights in the back end of his own career which means both fighters will put it all on the line.

I do think Gonzalez may just have run into an elite fighter and I think there is still something left in the tank. There are the question marks of a new trainer and adjustments Gonzalez would have made to his training camps, but I think he is the better fighter and I think there will be more in the tank.

Fuentes has been stopped relatively early in his two losses, but I think Gonzalez may just take some time to warm up having been out of the ring for over a year. Eventually I am looking for Chocolatito to break down Fuentes and I will back him to find the stoppage in the second half of this Ten Rounder.

Jaime Munguia vs Brandon Cook

Things could have been very different in 2018 for Jaime Munguia if he had been given the clearance to fight Gennady Golovkin back in May when he was a relative unknown with a strong unbeaten record.

Munguia was able to step into a better situation by facing Sadam Ali in a Light-Middleweight Title fight instead of moving up to face Golovkin. The Mexican impressed with his destruction of the Champion and he has already made one defence of his Title before being handed a spot on the undercard of the biggest fight of the year with Munguia showing the size to think he will eventually make the move to Middleweight and potentially be a challenger to the winner of the Canelo-GGG rematch.

The second defence of his WBO Title comes against Brandon Cook who should have been fighting Kell Brook in July before an injury meant Brook had to pull out of that bout in London. Cook looked to be wasting his training camp as a fight struggled to materialise before being given this opportunity.

As the feeling was when the Brook fight was arranged, this feels a big step up for Cook and he is going to be facing some considerable power. I have little doubt that Munguia still has plenty to learn at 21 years old, as he showed in the fight with Liam Smith, but he has plenty of power and looks like he will be considerably bigger than Cook.

This is almost a 'coming out' party for Munguia who will want to put on a strong display and I think he stops Cook in stunning fashion during the first half of the fight.

David Lemieux vs Gary O'Sullivan

The main event in Las Vegas is clearly an exceptional fight, but the undercard of the event is a good one with this fight between two Middleweights looking like it could set up the winner for a big Title fight perhaps as soon as at the end of the year.

Both David Lemieux and Gary O'Sullivan have very little time for one another and the build up has been fun this week with O'Sullivan taking plenty of the headlines for his comments.

He has rebuilt after a stoppage defeat to Chris Eubank Jr and his win over Antoine Douglas really helped make O'Sullivan's name in America. O'Sullivan has only been dealing in stoppages since March 2017 and I do think he is going to come here to fight.

Like David Lemieux, O'Sullivan had a wide points defeat to Billy Joe Saunders in his career too but the Irishman thinks he is on the way up and Lemieux is on the way down in what could be a crossroads fight.

I do think Lemieux has not been the same fighter since his Eighth Round defeat to Gennady Golovkin although Curtis Stevens may say otherwise in that stunning KO that was delivered to him. However for the most part his fights have been much tougher these days and Lemieux has also had some issues making weight which suggests he could be ripe for the beating here.

My issue is that O'Sullivan is likely going to try and trade with Lemieux and that may play into the hands of the Canadian. Both men have showed they have power to stop opponents, but this is a pretty big step up for O'Sullivan and I think there is going to be a stoppage in this one.

I think O'Sullivan has a deep tank which makes him dangerous, but he was stopped by Eubank Jr and I think Lemieux may hit harder. If O'Sullivan stands and trades I think that power tells and the Canadian may just get the better of a fighter that looks to have been matched up very well since his last defeat.

Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin

The rematch that is one year in the making is finally here.

In reality that is the fault of Canelo Alvarez who failed two drug tests and has completed a suspension since the controversial draw with Gennady Golovkin almost a year to the day.

First things first- I am not sure whether Canelo has regularly been cycling off the PEDs or whether his 'tainted meat' excuse is correct. It was naive to say the very least with the issues in Mexico meat that have been well known for a number of years, but I can't say for sure that I think he has been cheating.

Last year I picked Golovkin to win the fight, but when scoring live I actually finished with a 114-114 card and said there was one Round I really felt could have been a swing Round where I could have gone either way. That was a Round I could have given to Golovkin but slightly leaned to Canelo when I scored it and so the draw wasn't the big controversy for me.

Instead it was the horrible 118-110 card Adelaide Byrd put together, but if the score had been 115-113 each way and a 114-114 I don't think there would have been the same controversy attached.

From the day the rematch was arranged I felt Canelo Alvarez would edge out Gennady Golovkin in another close fight as GGG would have been that much older and the experience of the first fight would put Canelo in a good place. The drug suspension does raise some doubts about Canelo and make me wonder if anything he produced in the first fight was with the aid of something else rather than boxing skills and strength of character.

Add in the year Canelo has been out of the ring and I can see why GGG is the favourite and I respect that.

However I do think the year off could have done Canelo some good after a tough run and I do think he will be working a little harder earlier in the fight to steal a few close Rounds. If Canelo stands there and trades I don't think it will work for him, but I do think he will be more willing to throw on the move now he has felt the power that Golovkin will bring to the table.

That could be enough to sway those close Rounds and I am going to have a small interest on Canelo winning this one on a Decision.

Personally I would like GGG to win the fight and secure his legacy, but Canelo is younger, fresher and now knows what the power feels like. Canelo has plenty on the line here as he bids to prove that he wasn't cheating like the Golovkin camp have continued to insist, but I think the Mexican can show off the better boxing skills as long as he isn't so angry as to be drawn into a war.

The money is beginning to come in on the favourite, but I will look for the underdog to win a tight Decision.

MY PICKS: Roman Gonzalez Between 6-10 @ 3.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Jaime Munguia Between 1-6 @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
David Lemieux to Win By KO, TKO or Disqualification @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Canelo Alvarez to Win By Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.25 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Boxing 2018: 22-44, + 3.65 Units (101 Units Staked, + 3.61% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2017- Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin (September 16th)

2017 has already been a spectacular year for Boxing fans, but things might just have reached the pinnacle when Canelo Alvarez faces Gennady Golovkin in Las Vegas in a legitimate 'best versus best' contest that it has been billed as.

This has to be the most anticipated fights of this generation as the two leading Middleweights meet in the centre of the ring.

Across the pond in London we will see the only Middleweight belt that is not on the line in Vegas being fought out between Billy Joe Saunders and Willie Monroe with the winner of that one likely to be matched up with the winner of the Canelo-GGG fight early in 2018. That all depends on the winner of the fight though as Canelo has an immediate rematch clause if he loses, but Golovkin is not going to have the same opportunity, at least not contractually.

The World Boxing Super Series also got underway last week and the first fight in the Super-Middleweight tournament takes place in Liverpool. The Super Series looks set to give us some really good fights in the months ahead until the Finals take place in May 2018 and I am looking forward to a tournament that may introduce new weight classes to this format in 2018 if this tournament and the Cruiserweight one goes as well as expected.

Callum Smith vs Erik Skoglund

The World Boxing Super Series Super-Middleweight tournament really looks a strong line up with only James DeGale missing to make it the perfect eight boxers in the draw as far as I am concerned.

The winner of the tournament is going to be a star and Callum Smith have been tipped up for that position for a number of years. He has been frustrated with a delay in his World Title challenge and it led to him deciding to skip his mandatory position and instead chase World prizes in this tournament where George Groves has brought his title into the mix.

As a 'Seed', Smith got the chance to pick his opponent in the Quarter Final and he also has home advantage with this fight taking place in Liverpool. Smith chose unbeaten Erik Skoglund who has decided to come down from Light-Heavyweight for a chance to enter the Super-Middleweight tournament.

Skoglund is not the bigger man in this one though and his resume is not exactly filled with a lot of recognisable names and I do wonder if the step up to face Smith is one he can handle. His fights have taken place in Sweden and Denmark so this is a huge test of his belief as he travels to an opponent's back yard for a tough opening fight in the tournament.

This isn't an easy fight for Smith either, but I do think he has picked Skoglund knowing he has the size to keep him on the end of the jab and some thudding shots. The Smith resume has just faltered in recent fights as he has waited for his mandatory shot for the WBC Title to materialise, but I still think he has been ticking along at a higher level than Skoglund and I think that will show up in this one.

I do believe Smith will earn the stoppage, but he may have to wait until the second half of the fight as he breaks down Skoglund before ending things.

Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin

This is the fight all Boxing fans should be looking forward to.

Everyone will have landed in their respective camps and there won't be many sitting on the fence as people voice their opinions on this fight.

Personally I have thought Gennady Golovkin was the man at this weight class and I am not going to shift my mind now as I try and escape the building hype around the biggest fight we have prepared for since Manny Pacquiao took on Floyd Mayweather. That fight was a real anti-climax, but I am not expecting this one to be between two fine fighters who won't need to go looking for the other.

The reason so many seem to have flipped to the Canelo Alvarez side has to have something to do with the last two Triple G fights. Kell Brook had his success and I thought the Daniel Jacobs performance also came close to seeing Golovkin upset, and many think that is the blueprint for how to beat the Kazakhstan war horse.

I think both have been overplayed- Brook had has much success as Amir Khan was having against Canelo before both fighters were eventually stopped, and Jacobs came in much bigger than anticipated and had to pick himself up off the floor in that fight.

This time I think Golovkin will be the bigger fighter in the ring and while Canelo is a very good boxer, keeping GGG off has proven to be difficult. Canelo is not as slick as Daniel Jacobs and I am not sure he has enough power, despite having plenty, to keep Golovkin from coming forward and cutting the ring off.

Canelo is a great counter puncher, but GGG doesn't seem to get fazed and his own thudding power may prove the difference towards the end of this fight. At some point I do think GGG will have his man in trouble and it will be how much Canelo can weather to determine if he can get through this fight.

Earning a decision in Las Vegas against the home fighter is going to be very, very difficult for Golovkin and I do think the only way he wins this is by stoppage. I can see Canelo making the better start, but Golovkin edging more and more into the fight in the second half when he is able to start really applying the pressure on his opponent.

A cumulation of punches is what Golovkin uses to wear down opponents and that has every chance of happening here. This is a fight that is going to be a lot of fun to watch on Saturday evening, but I will stick with my original thought when this fight was announced and that is Golovkin by late stoppage.

MY PICKS: Callum Smith Win Between 7-12 @ 3.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Gennady Golovkin Win Between 7-12 @ 4.33 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)