US Open Tennis Day 13 Picks- Women's Final 2016 (September 10th)

The US Open can sometimes be a bit of anti-climax of a tournament, especially in recent years when the athletic ability of the players on the court sees energy levels sapped at this time of the season. This has always been my favourite Grand Slam and I think the 2016 edition has produced some really top quality matches in the second half which will make this one of the better events held in New York City.

On Saturday we have the Women's Final between Angelique Kerber, the new World Number 1, and Karolina Pliskova. It might not be the 'Dream Final' between Kerber and Serena Williams, but the German is fully deserving of her Number 1 spot having reached three of the four Grand Slam Finals in 2016.

I am anticipating a good Final though with both players in strong form and the contrasting ways they play should make it fun for the fans.


Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: I had a look at what I had wrote about Karolina Pliskova on the first day of the tournament which I have extracted here:

The likes of Sam Stosur (2011) and Flavia Pennetta (2015) have won titles at Flushing Meadows and wouldn't have had a lot of backers when they did. The three years in between have been dominated by Serena Williams but this is a tournament that can see a surprise winner and the big prices that perhaps appeal the most are Petra Kvitova and Karolina Pliskova who have had solid summers.

I don't think either player can be massively trusted, but if they can build some steam up in the tournament and Serena Williams is shocked in the First Round and you never know. Pliskova has a terrible Grand Slam record, but I have a feeling she is the kind of player who will suddenly put seven wins together and her tournament success in Cincinnati has to be respected.

Now I don't know about you, but I think the last two weeks have basically backed up my feelings about her pre-tournament although I am not sure she will go on and win the seventh match I had suggested. The success in Cincinnati included a win over Angelique Kerber in the Final when she dropped just four games and Pliskova has been serving well enough to think she can beat any player on the WTA Tour.

So far she has handled the nerves so impressively that Pliskova has to be respected in this Final, but I am not sure if she will eventually betray her feelings. The win over Serena Williams was very impressive, but the former World Number 1 might not have been at 100% and the Pliskova serve is likely to be tested by the ability the new World Number 1 has when it comes to the return of serve.

While the manner of her defeat to Pliskova will play a part in this one, I also think Kerber was coming in much more physically affected after three long weeks on the Tour than she will be in this one. Kerber hasn't dropped a set in the tournament and that should mean she is going to be able to run as much as she needs to as she tries to break down the Pliskova serve.

There is a clear edge for Pliskova from the serve, but Kerber is the better player when the rallies are extended and has the experience edge thanks to her two previous Grand Slam Finals in 2016. I think that is going to be important for her and at some point Pliskova is going to realise the situation she is in and I think at that point things will begin to get tight for her.

Matches between these players have been competitive, but I am looking for Kerber to underline her position as the new World Number 1 with a battling 75, 46, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

US Open Update: 39-37, + 10.18 Units (144 Units Staked, + 7.07% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 13 Picks 2016- Ladies Final (July 9th)

Wimbledon Ladies Final 2016- Serena Williams vs Angelique Kerber

For the second time in 2016, Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber will compete for a Grand Slam title. The first time obviously ended with a huge surprise as Kerber managed to hold her nerve and prevent the Serena charge in the final set having dropped the second and so she will have belief she can win this one.

Beating Serena Williams on the faster surface at Wimbledon is a big task though and the World Number 1 will go in as a big favourite to finally bring home her 22nd Singles Grand Slam title and her first since winning the title here last year. A Semi Final defeat at the US Open to Roberta Vinci followed by Final defeats at the Australian Open and French Open here might have dented some of the aura around Serena, but she remains the best female player in the world when bringing her best to the court.

Angelique Kerber is yet to drop a set in this tournament and she has a couple of very solid wins in the last two Rounds behind her, but the German will know she has to be even better if she is going to double her Grand Slam titles in seven months.

Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Angelique Kerber: On first glance this does look a lot of games for Serena Williams to cover considering she was beaten by Angelique Kerber at the Australian Open and might have a slight mental block to overcome as she looks to match Steffi Graf's record of 22 Grand Slams in the professional era.

Losing both Grand Slam Finals played in 2016 as well as in the Semi Final at the US Open last September will have an affect, even on someone who has been as successful as Serena Williams. We are not watching robots, but human beings with real emotions and it is hard to ignore the fact that she has come up short in the last two Slams when going in as the favourite to win those matches.

Of course Serena should be favourite and I think she has peaked at the right time to win the Wimbledon title for the seventh time in her career. Her serve wasn't working as well as it can when she faced Kerber at the Australian Open, especially the first serve, but that part of her game looks to be in perfect condition and the courts here suit her serve very much more then in Australia.

That isn't to disrespect Kerber who has one of the best defensive games on the WTA Tour and who won't allow Serena to play her serve followed by a big forehand winner game. Kerber's defensive skills should affect the way Serena approaches the game as she might look to hit closer to the lines as soon as possible which might extract more mistakes, while Kerber will also look to make her play one more ball which can also lead to mistakes.

The Kerber serve is still one of the weaker parts of the German's game and that can be exposed on this surface. She might have beaten Venus Williams in straight sets, but Kerber was regularly in a bit of bother on serve and that is going to be the case against an aggressive and more consistent Serena Williams. Attacking the second serve should give Serena Williams a chance to dictate the points and get Kerber on the run.

On the other hand, Kerber has to try and stretch Serena out with the American not the greatest mover these days. It limits the power Williams can produce coming back when making her hit on the run, although I do think Serena is in the kind of form that will make it very difficult to get her out of her rhythm.

Kerber has to play better than she did against Venus Williams when she was aided by plenty of mistakes from the older Williams sister. Those are not coming as frequently from Serena Williams and not many players can say they have beaten her twice in a row with the World Number 1 someone who admits she recounts every loss she has had.

Serena Williams would only be 3-3 covering this number of games in her previous six Wimbledon Final wins, but she had covered in three in a row before last year. Even that match against Garbine Muguruza saw the Spaniard break in the second set to edge closer to Williams who had led 6-4, 5-1 before being broken twice.

Those nerves could prevent Serena covering here, but I think she will be looking for some revenge against Kerber and having lost to her in Australia should keep the mind focused even if in a commanding position. Only seven women have ever beaten both Williams sisters in the same tournament and I am not sure Kerber can make that number eight here.

As much as I respect the German, I think she will come up short in this one as Serena Williams uses her power and the conditions to come through 64, 63 and tie Graf's Singles Grand Slam record.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 43-36, + 12.66 Units (156 Units Staked, + 8.12% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 13 Picks 2016- Women's Final (January 30th)

And so this is it... The two Singles Finals at the Australian Open 2016 have been set and the first of those will be the Women's Final between Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber.

The favourite holds the experience edge by some margin, but the underdog can play with a 'nothing to lose' attitude having surpassed expectations to reach the Final.

I am not really someone who likes the 'nothing to lose' tag for Finals because you have to think Kerber works so hard on the court to make sure she wins a Grand Slam. This might be her best opportunity to ever to do so and that will play a part too, but on to the pick.


Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Serena Williams is unsurprisingly the big favourite to win this Grand Slam title and make it five Grand Slam wins from the last six competed. 2014 seems a long time ago when Serena Williams 'only' won the US Open, but she will be expected to make it 22 career Grand Slams by winning in Australia and having every chance of surpassing Margaret Court's record 24 Single Slams by the end of the season.

The World Number 1 has played with a chip on her shoulder this entire tournament even if she would be loathed to admit that. After losing in the US Open Semi Final last season and then pulling out of the Tour the rest of the way to recover, some questioned whether that was a mental blow from which she would not recover.

The knee issue at the Hopman Cup which forced another withdrawal only clouded her status all the more and Serena Williams came into the tournament at what was most likely her biggest price to win a Grand Slam for at least three years. But Serena has made little work of the draw following a First Round win over Camila Giorgi and the confidence has to be flowing through her ahead of the Final, even if she has admitted having nerves going into these matches in the past.

Williams lost nine games in her First Round match but has lost just seventeen in her next five matches combined and the serve seems to be working effectively. Issues with the sun have affected the ball toss in previous matches, but this is a night session match and it is going to take a monumental effort from Angelique Kerber to keep this one competitive.

I do like what Kerber brings to the court with the power to turn defence into attack very quickly and movement that can frustrate the best players on the Tour. Her first serve has actually been working much better than expected with a few cheap points coming from it and Kerber will need to keep that at a high percentage if she is going to earn the surprise win.

The lefty play might also disrupt Serena Williams a little bit, but Kerber will find it hard to match the power on the other side of the court and it does feel the match is going to be dictated on the American's racquet. Unlike Agnieszka Radwanska, Kerber has beaten Serena Williams in the past which might give her a little more belief in her game and two of their seven previous matches would have seen her cover this number of games.

However, that also means five out of seven has seen Serena cover and I think it is telling that Kerber has never won more than 30% of the return points against the Williams serve. With the way Serena has been serving in this tournament, it is hard to imagine that changing significantly which it would need to if Kerber was to win this match.

I actually think it is a number she will need to improve to simply stay in this one too and I believe Serena Williams is in such magnificent form that I expect her to win this one 62, 64.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 30-46, - 32.10 Units (146 Units Staked, - 21.30% Yield)