There are always going to be days of frustration when making picks from a Tour as long as the Tennis one, but the key is to flush those and look to bounce back.
Jan-Lennard Struff blew a 2-0 lead to eventually come through 3-2 against Sebastian Baez, but that was followed by Alejandro Davidovich Fokina failing to cover the handicap, despite leading 6/4, 6/4, 3/0 and with a double break of serve in that third set.
Blowing that lead is one thing, but he later led that set with another break at 6/5, but ultimately settled for a tie-breaker success and missing the cover by a single game- if both had landed the other way, Day 1 of the 2026 Wimbledon would have been a decent one.
There were one or two players that just fell short of the criteria and seeing both win comfortably only doubled down the irritation of Day 1, but the First Round has yet to be completed and there is an opportunity to get things turned around.
Day 2 looks like another busy one for the selections, but it is a day where backing a number of players to get through matches without the stress of a deciding set is catching the eye.
Some of the prices are not going to be rushing people out with excitement, but it remains the time of the tournament where trying to lay a positive foundation is the key for what is to come.
Alex De Minaur - 8.5 games v Roman Andres Burruchaga: The connection with Katie Boulter will mean Alex De Minaur should be receiving plenty of support from the London crowd much like Boulter gets when the opening Grand Slam of the Tennis Tour is played in Melbourne. The World Number 6 is pretty comfortable on the grass courts too and Alex De Minaur has been set as a strong favourite to get through this First Round match at SW19.
Two warm up events have been played in Hertogenbosch and Queen's Club and Alex De Minaur reached the Final of the former and the Quarter Final in the latter.
Alex De Minaur should be pretty happy with the numbers produced as he has held 83% of service games played and broken in 32% of return games across those two warm up tournaments, while the opening match here at Wimbledon pits him against someone who is perhaps not so comfortable on the grass.
Roman Andres Burruchaga is the World Number 66 and reached his best career World Ranking just last month when pushing up to World Number 56, but the 24 year old is someone who will almost exclusively play in clay court events. Over the last twelve months, Burruchaga has a 45-20 record in clay court matches, but is 4-6 on hard courts and he is making his debut in the main draw at Wimbledon on Tuesday.
In 2024, Roman Andres Burruchaga won a couple of Qualifying matches before missing out on the main draw in a Third Qualifying Round defeat, while last year he was beaten in the Second Qualifying Round. In one warm up event ahead of Wimbledon 2026, Roman Andres Burruchaga was beaten in three sets by Arthur Fery at Eastbourne and the Argentine has struggled with his return on the lower bouncing grass courts compared with the clay courts.
After winning just 60% of service points played against Arthur Fery, Roman Andres Burruchaga has a lot of room for improvement if he is going to find a way to challenge Alex De Minaur.
It also should be noted that since the start of Wimbledon 2022, Alex De Minaur has a 16-1 record against players Ranked outside of the top 50 in grass court matches and had won fifteen in a row before losing to Kamil Majchrzak in the Hertogenbosch Final earlier this month. He got back on track in that situation when beating Gabriel Diallo at Queen's Club and the 27 year old has held 87% of service games and broken in 32% of return games in that seventeen match run.
This is a very big number and opening matches at Wimbledon can take a bit of time for the top players to really find their rhythm, but Alex De Minaur should have far too much knowledge of playing on this surface for Roman Andres Burruchaga. That should eventually show up on the scoreboard as Alex De Minaur moves through the gears and he should be able to find the breaks that will be needed to cover this mark.
Otto Virtanen-Ben Shelton over 10.5 games first set: Any Qualifier that had to play through the London heatwave last week will have left something on the court, but those players may also have plenty of confidence of at least rattling opponents now we move into main draw action.
One of those making it through the Qualifiers is Otto Virtanen and the 25 year old is someone who has shown a confidence in playing on the grass courts. Three Qualifying wins has pushed the grass court record to 10-3 this year, while Otto Virtanen won all six grass court matches last year before picking up an injury that meant he missed competing at Wimbledon.
The World Number 140 could make a significant move in the World Rankings if he can find an upset or two at this tournament, but Otto Virtanen has been paired with Ben Shelton in the opening Round and it may be a big ask to remain in the draw at the end of Tuesday.
Ben Shelton has a very big game and it should be well suited to the grass courts- he reached the Quarter Final at Wimbledon last year and that means the American has done that at three of the four Grand Slams played with the exception being at the French Open, which is really not a big surprise.
He is the World Number 5 and Ben Shelton is one of the leading contenders at this Grand Slam, especially being placed in the other half of the draw compared with the likes of Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner. Ben Shelton warmed up for Wimbledon by winning the title in Stuttgart and followed up with a run to the Quarter Final in Halle and this is a big time server who has held in 93% of service games played on the grass in 2025 and 2026.
Breaking Ben Shelton is going to be a big ask for Otto Virtanen, but he will take confidence in his own service numbers against an opponent who has broken in just 11% of return games played on the surface this year.
The career number is at 12% for breaks of serve on the grass and it is expected to take Ben Shelton a bit of time to perhaps earn a read on the Otto Virtanen serve.
An opening set tie-breaker would surprise no one, but the layers are offering up odds against for the first set to get to 5-5 and that looks the play.
A consideration was given to backing this match to finish above the line set for total games, but that will need both players to win a set and it would not surprise me if Ben Shelton gets stronger as this match goes on, while Otto Virtanen may weaken. However, that could come after a very competitive first set and backing that one to move past this total number of games is the selection.
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Alexander Blockx: After finally getting over the line and winning a Grand Slam title when picking up the trophy in Paris at the French Open, Alexander Zverev will be hoping for a late surge in Major title victories.
He now knows he can win the biggest titles on the Tour having come so close previously, but Alexander Zverev has yet to have that kind of impact at Wimbledon.
The World Number 3 is the Number 2 Seed at this Grand Slam tournament due to the absence of Carlos Alcaraz, but it is a surprise that Alexander Zverev has reached at least the Semi Final at the other three Grand Slam events, but failed to make the Quarter Final at Wimbledon. The best runs have been reaching the Fourth Round on three occasions, but this is a player who has reached the Final in Halle a couple of times and also reached the Final in Stuttgart to suggest he is more than capable of having a big run at Wimbledon too.
Winning the French Open may inspire better from Alexander Zverev who will be facing Alexander Blockx for the third time in two months when they meet in the First Round here.
A match that was originally scheduled for Court One has been moved onto Centre Court after Jack Draper's withdrawal from the tournament and Alexander Zverev will be happy enough with his run to the Semi Final in Halle in his sole competitive preparation for this Grand Slam.
It is more than can be said for Alexander Blockx who has never played in the main draw at Wimbledon and who did not take in any warm up events ahead of this tournament in 2026.
Last year he was beaten in the Third Qualifying Round and Alexander Blockx finished with a 4-4 record on the surface, but seven of those matches were against players Ranked outside the top 100 and this match up has already proven to be a tough one for the young Belgian.
There is a concern with an ankle issue that has meant Alexander Blockx had to withdraw from the French Open before the Second Round match against Alex De Minaur and which has forced him to miss the warm up events for Wimbledon. He has already struggled to be competitive against Alexander Zverev in two clay court matches, which is where Blockx may have felt most comfortable, and it is going to be very tough to stop the French Open Champion in this opening match at Wimbledon with little competitive tennis under the belt.
In those previous two matches, Alexander Zverev has dominated behind serve, but also done enough to put together pressure for breaks in 33% of return games played.
Returning on the grass courts has proven to be much more challenging for Alexander Zverev, but he should be able to work his way into this First Round match and the comfort with what is expected from the other side of the net is also a factor in this one. As the match wears on, Alexander Zverev should be able to take more and more control and it should mean he eventually is able to push through to the Second Round behind a pretty routine win.
MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Otto Virtanen-Ben Shelton Over 10.5 First Set Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Sets @ 1.70 William Hill (2 Units)
Jakub Mensik - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 Sets @ 1.57 William Hill (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 Sets @ 1.57 William Hill (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Sets @ 1.53 William Hill (2 Units)
Jiri Lehecka - 1.5 Sets @ 1.57 William Hill (2 Units)
Kamil Majchrzak - 1.5 Sets @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Francisco Cerundolo - 1.5 Sets @ 1.60 William Hill (2 Units)
Francisco Cerundolo - 1.5 Sets @ 1.60 William Hill (2 Units)
Flavio Cobolli - 1.5 Sets @ 1.57 William Hill (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Serena Williams @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 3-4, - 3.68 Units (14 Units Staked, - 26.29% Yield)
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