The French Open has been one of the more upset-driven Grand Slam tournaments we have seen over the last couple of years and that has made it very difficult to predict.
Both underdogs came through the Women's Semi Final matches on Thursday, but the favourites will be looking for better success when the Men's final four are played on Day 13.
They both look capable, but Jakub Mensik and Matteo Arnaldi will have something to say about that and the Picks from the two matches can be read below.
Jakub Mensik-Alexander Zverev over 37.5 games: The favourites have continued to fall throughout the two weeks at the French Open, but Alexander Zverev has been holding himself together and has been in this position for a number of days now. There is going to be little doubt in the German's camp that Zverev may never have a better chance to break his Grand Slam duck and win the title on Sunday, but it is imperative that all stay focused on the matches as they come.
For so long Alexander Zverev has been chasing a generation including Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, but two have retired and Djokovic looks like his best is finally behind him. Instead of allowing Alexander Zverev and his peers take over the top of the sport, the likes of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have broken through and over the last two years either one or the other has gotten the better of the World Number 3.
None of those players mentioned can stop Alexander Zverev at the 2026 French Open, but he is now fending off another generation of players having beaten a teenager in the Quarter Final and now taking on a 20 year old who has become just the fifth Men's player from his nation to reach a Grand Slam Semi Final.
But that is not enough for Jakub Mensik, who has been touted for the top of the sport ever since he upset Novak Djokovic to win the Miami Masters last year.
Unsurprisingly that also meant a target on Jakub Mensik's back and he has perhaps struggled with that, which has led to him dropping from World Number 12 in March 2025 to World Number 27 ahead of this tournament.
He is going to back up near his career best World Ranking mark at the end of this Grand Slam, but Jakub Mensik has shown plenty of grit and determination to believe he deserves plenty of respect in the Semi Final. No one will be surprised he is the underdog, but Mensik has battled through adversity throughout this tournament and that will have given him a lot of confidence.
Getting past Joao Fonseca in straight sets in the Quarter Final will also be a big help for Jakub Mensik, who looked to be struggling with some physical ailments at various times during that last eight clash. The 20 year old has spent a lot more time on the court compared with Alexander Zverev and you cannot ignore that as a factor, but being in this half of the draw and playing in the Tuesday Quarter Final does mean Jakub Mensik has had two full days of recovery time to prepare physically and mentally.
The players have a recent knowledge of playing one another and on this surface- a few weeks ago, Alexander Zverev beat Jakub Mensik in the Fourth Round at the Madrid Masters, but that was a match that needed a third set decider. Both produced a big serving day, although Alexander Zverev eventually had the edge, and that is going to be a key shot when it comes to the outcome of this Semi Final.
Most will make Alexander Zverev favourite, which is the right choice, but Jakub Mensik has shown he can dig in and produce some very good tennis on this surface.
Another windy day is expected, although not as windy as Wednesday and Thursday, and the match may come down to which of the players can get on the front foot the quickest.
Experience is certainly with Alexander Zverev and that should never be downplayed, but Jakub Mensik could push him hard through the first couple of hours on the court and the younger player can at least win a set.
With both players capable of rolling through service games, this could be a Semi Final that needs at least 38 games to find a winner who will then play for the French Open title on Sunday afternoon in Paris.
Flavio Cobolli - 4.5 games v Matteo Arnaldi: An all-Italian Semi Final that does not feature Jannik Sinner will come as a surprise to those tuning into the French Open on Day 13 of the tournament, but that is no concern to either Matteo Arnaldi or Flavio Cobolli. Both have taken advantage of their compatriot exiting the tournament in the Second Round and opening up the top half of the draw, but credit has to be given to both Arnaldi and Cobolli for making sure they are in this position.
If Alexander Zverev wins the other Semi Final, the winner of this one will be the underdog on Sunday, but that should not be the focus for either player as they look to reach a maiden Grand Slam Final in its own right.
The clay courts will be comfortable for Matteo Arnaldi and Flavio Cobolli and it is going to be another Semi Final where the player who handles the occasion the best is likely going to find a way through. They are very familiar with one another being from the same country, while Matteo Arnaldi being 25 years old and Flavio Cobolli being 24 years old means they have likely known one another for many years.
Being familiar with the opponent should help settle the nerves somewhat and it is going to be the sixth meeting on the Tour with the first of those played back in 2021- Flavio Cobolli won that one before Matteo Arnaldi won three in a row, but it was Cobolli who was the winner again when these two met right here at the French Open last year.
It was a dominant Second Round win for Flavio Cobolli back in May 2025, although the setting around this one will be much different and that has to be a factor.
Despite that, Flavio Cobolli should be the fresher player, which gives him an edge, and he has made much more serene progress through the draw. His overall performances on the Tour have been a bit more convincing compared with Matteo Arnaldi, who was the World Number 36 when they met at Roland Garros last year, but who begun this event outside of the top 100.
Back to back five setters saw Matteo Arnaldi just get himself through some fine margins, but he looked a little fatigued in the Quarter Final- it was Matteo Berrettini who ultimately saw his body let him down and a two hour match abruptly concluded when Berrettini was forced out with an injury.
That will help Arnaldi in his recovery, but this is a much different kind of match against Flavio Cobolli and you have to expect the higher Ranked Italian to have too much for him once again at the French Open.
A battling win over Felix Auger Aliassime means Flavio Cobolli has only dropped two sets in his run to the French Open Semi Final and the conditions should not be as tough as they were on Wednesday.
Nothing will come easy with a spot in a Grand Slam Final on the line, but Flavio Cobolli may eventually wear down Matteo Arnaldi, who has to be feeling all of the tennis he has already played. Expect long rallies to wear down Arnaldi and that could allow Flavio Cobolli to eventually move into the French Open Final with a cover of this handicap mark set.
MY PICKS: Jakub Mensik-Alexander Zverev Over 37.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Flavio Cobolli - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
French Open Update: 26-22, - 1.54 Units (92 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
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