The upsets have continued to spring up over the last couple of days at the French Open and that left both Men's and Women's tournaments with a clear favourite, but with every other player likely to believe they can win the second Grand Slam of the 2026 season.
New Champions in both events will be crowned after Iga Swiatek was beaten on Sunday.
Pressure will begin to play its part, while the conditions in Paris are changing with cooler weather and rainy conditions likely replacing the heatwave that covered the first week of the tournament.
After a couple of difficult days for the Tennis Picks, there was something of a fightback on Sunday and the Day 9 Picks can be read below.
Flavio Cobolli - 7.5 games v Zachary Svajda: Ever since Jannik Sinner has been knocked out of the French Open, the Men's tournament has had a lopsided feel to the bracket and the top half is wide open.
Six of the eight players who reached the Fourth Round of the bottom half of the draw were Seeded players, but only three of the eight in the top half. That does build up some pressure with many players perhaps feeling they will not have a better chance to reach a Grand Slam Final and Flavio Cobolli should be credited for his performance in the Third Round.
Seeing his compatriot dumped out of the draw means Flavio Cobolli has to believe he is the favourite to reach the French Open Final from this half of the draw. That could have made him tense when facing Learner Tien in the Third Round, but Flavio Cobolli rolled past the American and now faces another opponent from that nation.
Learner Tien had shown some positive form prior to the French Open, which means the run from the Seeded player was not that surprising.
That is far from the case for Zachary Svajda, who had previously been beaten in Qualifiers in each of the last two seaosns at the French Open. The World Number 85 also had a 1-5 record on the red dirt in the build up to the second Grand Slam of the season, but Zachary Svajda has enjoyed his time in the main draw and earned a huge upset in the Third Round against Francisco Cerundolo.
After blowing a two set lead, all credit has to be given to Zachary Svajda for rallying in the fifth set decider and it is comfortably the best clay court win he has produced in Paris at this tournament. The previous two wins had been against players that prefer faster surfaces, but Cerundolo is a very effective clay courter and beating him will have given Zachary Svajda a huge amount of confidence.
The 23 year old American is going to be taking a big leap in the World Rankings and setting a new career high, no matter when the tournament ends, and so it is been a productive event for Zachary Svajda.
He will want that to continue, but this is a tough looking match up and Flavio Cobolli should be much fresher of the two players having moved through the opening three Rounds in straight sets.
The first serve is going to be key for Svajda, but you have to believe that Flavio Cobolli is going to have too much knowledge of clay court tennis for the underdog in this Fourth Round clash.
Flavio Cobolli is not the most convincing of return players on the clay courts, which is a potential issue when it comes to this spread, but Zachary Svajda was only holding 65% of service games prior to the unexpected successes he has had in Paris.
He may continue defying his previous form on the clay, but Flavio Cobolli feels the right player to end that run after the crushing win over Learner Tien, while the Italian has a win over Svajda on the hard courts and so should have enough experience to know what to expect from the underdog in this Fourth Round contest.
Frances Tiafoe - 0.5 games v Matteo Arnaldi: The top half of the Men's tournament has offered up big opportunities for every player involved and both Frances Tiafoe and Matteo Arnaldi came through tough five setters to earn their place in the Fourth Round.
That time spent on the court can be very difficult to overcome at the business end of any Grand Slam tournament, while both players also have to deal with much different conditions compared to what has been seen in the first week of the tournament. Heat makes it easier to hit through the clay, but the dampening conditions makes it tougher and that should favour Matteo Arnaldi.
The Italian beat Frances Tiafoe on a clay court in Madrid in April 2025, but that was a very competitive match and it is Tiafoe who had been producing a bit more consistency on the surface prior to the French Open beginning.
Back to back five setters cannot be a good thing for Frances Tiafoe, but he was able to largely cruise through the last two sets in the Third Round, unlike Matteo Arnaldi who had to win a final set Tie-Breaker to earn his place in the second week.
Out of the two players, Matteo Arnaldi can take some confidence from having won a Challenger title on the clay courts in the lead up to the French Open, while he earned a couple of solid wins at the Rome Masters before losing to Rafael Jodar. The three wins at the French Open will show a player in good form and one who is operating with plenty of belief in his own tennis, but the same can be said for Frances Tiafoe who had a 4-3 record on the clay prior to the French Open getting underway.
The two styles are quite different- Frances Tiafoe will be relying on the serve, while Matteo Arnaldi will believe he is the stronger return player. On a clay court, returning may be a big factor in the outcome, especially if the cooler and potentially wetter conditions make the court play slower than we have seen throughout the French Open.
In the two previous matches on the Tour, Frances Tiafoe has been winning more return points of the two players and that may give him the edge in this competitive Fourth Round match.
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Naomi Osaka: For the first time in three years, the French Open organisers have scheduled a Women's match for the Night Session on Court Philippe-Chatrier. Plenty have criticised the organisers for failing to use a Women's match in a primetime spot, but the reason that has been given is that there is every chance that those matches will not provide value for money and so a best of five set Men's match has been preferred.
It will put some pressure on the shoulders of Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka to provide the right amount of entertainment for fans who are paying a premium to attend the Night Session.
However, you have to believe that two multiple time Grand Slam Champions are able to cope with that expectation and this feels like a big Fourth Round match after the Women's tournament saw the likes of Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek join Elena Rybakina in being eliminated before the Quarter Final.
This has hardened Aryna Sabalenka into being favourite to win the title in Paris over the next few days after finishing 2025 as Runner Up at this event.
She has not played a lot of clay court tennis in preparation for the French Open, while an early defeat in Rome will have meant there were some questions for Aryna Sabalenka to answer when she arrived in the French capital. Three straight wins and all in straight sets will have been a good response to any doubters, but Aryna Sabalenka will be aware that this is the toughest test she will have faced at the French Open to this stage of the tournament.
Naomi Osaka has won four Grand Slam titles, but all on the hard courts and the last of those was at the Australian Open in 2021- she has struggled to return to the consistent level she once produced and the Fourth Round run here in Paris is only the second time Naomi Osaka has reached the second week of a Grand Slam tournament since her last Major in January 2021.
Last September, Naomi Osaka reached the US Open Semi Final, but the French Open and Wimbledon have been her poorest Grand Slam events and this is the first time she has reached the business end of either of those tournaments.
The win over Iva Jovic and the manner in which it was produced will have given Naomi Osaka confidence, but this is a tough test for the World Number 16 who has struggled for consistency on the clay courts.
Serving well will give Naomi Osaka a chance, although she will have to get plenty of first serves in play to put Aryna Sabalenka under pressure in what are expected to be warm conditions, but nothing like what has been seen in Paris over the last few days.
Improving the return against the elite players on the Tour is another challenge for Naomi Osaka and Aryna Sabalenka will be confident having beaten her pretty convincingly twice already this season.
One of those wins was on the clay courts of Madrid as Aryna Sabalenka recovered from losing an opening set Tie-Breaker to roll through the next couple of sets.
In the two matches played against one another this season, Aryna Sabalenka has been the much superior server and she is the better clay court player. There will be moments where Naomi Osaka will be able to get on top of the rallies, but the World Number 1 may not have many better chances to win a Grand Slam title in Paris and she can record a confident victory in this big Fourth Round match.
MY PICKS: Flavio Cobolli - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 0.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Maja Chwalinska - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Anastasia Potapova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
French Open Update: 20-15, + 2.74 Units (66 Units Staked, + 4.15% Yield)
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