There continue to be some very good matches at the Australian Open, although those have featured players lower down the Seeding, and the top names have largely made comfortable progress so far at the tournament.
The Second Round is going to be completed on Day 4 at Melbourne Park and that means a number of British players are in action. It feels like the majority of players who have travelled Down Under from the United Kingdom have been placed in the bottom half of the Men and Women's draw at the Australian Open and the expectation is that there will still be a number involved later this week.
It has also been a good few days for the Tennis Picks after a strong Day 3, although I am not going to have as many selections from the Thursday offering as I did on Wednesday. There are a number of big favourites I do like to cover, but also plenty of close matches that I am looking to avoid in a bid to keep the positive run going.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Taro Daniel: On the same court on which he was beaten in five sets and where many felt they may not see Andy Murray in a Grand Slam tournament again, some redemption was had by the former World Number One in the First Round of the Australian Open in 2022. This time Andy Murray came out on the right side of a tough five set win over a Seeded opponent and it does feel like the door could soon open for a really strong run at Melbourne Park where he is a multiple time Runner Up.
Winning the tournament would still be a huge underdog story for Andy Murray and he has admitted himself that he is going to try and take things as they come each day. Having a day of rest will be important for the veteran having reached the Sydney Final last weekend and after spending just eight minutes shy of four hours on court to see off the huge hitting Nikoloz Basilashvili a couple of days ago.
The match up looks much more favourable for Andy Murray in the Second Round as he takes on Qualifier Taro Daniel.
Any Qualifier who has won three matches and then managed to work his way through the First Round of a Grand Slam has to be respected and Taro Daniel is clearly enjoying his summer in Australia having put together a 7-1 record so far. It would be foolish to ignore the fact that only two of those matches have been against players Ranked inside the top 100 and Taro Daniel is 1-1 in those matches.
His service numbers have been strong, but I do think Taro Daniel is going to be tested in a much tougher manner than he has at any stage over the last month. There is no doubt that Andy Murray has a long way to go to reach his peak return numbers from a few years ago, but he is a player that will get plenty of balls back in play and this is a match in which the British player will not be overpowered as he was at times by the strong ball striking of his last opponent.
The Andy Murray serve is actually looking in pretty good shape so far in January and I think it will be difficult for Taro Daniel to have the same success as Nikoloz Basilashvili had in the two matches played against Murray. Over the last two years, Taro Daniel is just 1-10 against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and his return numbers are incredibly poor with just 31% of return points won and breaks in 11% of return games played.
That puts a huge amount of pressure on the Taro Daniel serve and I think Andy Murray can build on the win in the First Round by securing passage to the next Round in much more routine fashion on Day 4 at the Australian Open.
Jannik Sinner - 6.5 games v Steve Johnson: At 20 years old it feels like Jannik Sinner is ready to make a move to the upper echelons of the ATP Tour and his experiences at the ATP Finals in Turin underline the point. He is already inside the top 10 of the World Rankings, but this is the year in which he will be looking for a little more consistency from his game overall and also in terms of results at the Grand Slam level.
To highlight the point, Jannik Sinner reached the Fourth Round at the French Open and US Open in 2021, but he lost in the First Round both here and at Wimbledon. In fact half of the eight Grand Slam tournaments the Italian has entered have ended in the First Round and so the win over Joao Sousa on Tuesday will likely have given him a boost in confidence for the challenges ahead.
There are going to be some tough matches to negotiate if he is going to reach the second week at the Australian Open for the first time and Jannik Sinner would be wrong to look past the veteran Steve Johnson, even if he is no longer the player he was.
Even at his best, Steve Johnson had a real problem in finding the right way to approach return games to really push on and enter the top 20 of the World Rankings. These days the American has slipped outside the top 100 and Steve Johnson needs to put some wins together over the coming weeks to get back into a position where he will be given spots in the main draws of the Grand Slams without needing to play the Qualifiers.
A 5-2 month so far will be a boost for the Ranking points and Steve Johnson did well to rally and beat a home hope in the First Round, although Johnson is likely to be the first to admit he has to pick up his level if he is going to beat an opponent like Jannik Sinner. The serve has long been a big weapon for Steve Johnson, but there were some signs of decline behind that shot in 2021 on the hard courts and it will be an area where the aggressive youngster across the net will be looking to attack where he can.
Jannik Sinner is not the best returner just yet, but he has opened 2022 with his numbers looking impressive even if I am not sure he is going to sustain the level over the course of the next several months. When these two met in Washington on the hard courts last August, Jannik Sinner was able to exert the pressure needed to crack through the Steve Johnson serve and I think he will wear down the American in this Second Round.
I doubt Sinner will be able to coast part Steve Johnson and will be pushed in at least one and perhaps two sets, but I think the Italian has the serve to contain the threat coming from the other side of the net. The longer they are out on court, I expect to see Jannik Sinner put more and more pressure on the Johnson serve and eventually he may break the back of the match and pull clear for a cover of a pretty wide mark.
Andrey Rublev - 7.5 games v Ricardas Berankis: You would be overlooking a player like Ricardas Berankis if you were to judge him solely on his career best World Ranking as I think the talented player should be earned a much higher spot than the Number 50 he achieved. That was a few years ago and Ricardas Berankis is barely holding onto a top 100 Ranking these days, but he will feel he has nothing to lose and has the kind of tennis that is capable of pushing the very best players on the Tour.
You could see that talent in the competitive loss to Rafael Nadal in the lead up the Australian Open, but Ricardas Berankis did have a very tough match in the First Round that lasted close to four hours and five sets and it may play a part in this one too.
One of the main reasons that Ricardas Berankis has not been much higher up the World Rankings is a relatively vulnerable serve compared with the very best players. It was the main reason he was beaten by Nadal in the warm up event, and Berankis has won just under 59% of service points played against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts throughout his career.
While the return has been effective for him at the lower level, Ricardas Berankis has broken in just 14% of return games played against those opponents across twenty-seven matches and I do think he will have issues trying to get into the Andrey Rublev service games.
The top ten Ranked player has played his first match of 2022 in the First Round at the Australian Open and Andrey Rublev looked like he was refreshed and ready for another big year on the Tour. He dominated that match and Andrey Rublev has held 86% of service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months
Andrey Rublev was broken just once in his first match and he has a very effective return of serve, which should put him in a position to win and cover in this Second Round match. It is a big spread, but Rublev will have the break point chances to win at least one set with two more breaks of serve than Ricardas Berankis and that can make all the difference in the handicap selection.
These players have met twice before and those matches have ended 1-1, but the last of those was in September 2019. Andrey Rublev won that day, but he is much improved, while we have seen the best of Ricardas Berankis and I think the difference will be wide enough for the Russian player to earn another good, straight sets win as he had in the First Round.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 6.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anett Kontaveit - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Emma Raducanu - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Danielle Collins - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 18-8, + 13.20 Units (52 Units Staked, + 25.38% Yield)
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